State of the Program: 

Matt Painter and the Boilermakers enter this season coming off one of the more decorated seasons you can have as a program. Regular season Conference champs, Conference tournament champs and your star player being named NPOY. Yet and still, there’s an ominous cloud that surrounds the program, after they became just the 2nd team in history to lose as a 1 seed in the 1st round of the NCAA tournament. The last 3 NCAA tournaments have seen the Boilers fall to 13 seed N. Texas, 15 seed St. Peter’s and 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson. The good news is they enter this season in a very similar spot as the last 1 seed to lose in the 1st round, Virginia, who returned nearly everyone from that group and bounced back to win the whole damn thing the very next season. Purdue welcomes back all but 2 of their rotational players from last year’s decorated group, including the NPOY Zach Edey. The optimistic view would also look at the fact that last year’s team came seemingly out of nowhere, and has a ton of room to grow as they started 2 true FR in the backcourt and struggled mightily with TO’s and poor shooting. Those are both areas that can be improved, and the Sophomore jump from guards often improves both of those areas. With Edey back, and the history of player development Purdue has, there should be nobody in the Country picking anyone besides Purdue to win the Big 10. After that though, the Boilers will naturally be a common upset pick, and have every reason to be after these last few seasons. They’ll hope those experiences and some new blood can help them get over the March hump. 

What’s New: 

Transfers:

     Lance Jones [So. Illinois]

 

On the surface this addition is a little perplexing as Purdue desperately needs consistent shot makers and Jones was very inefficient a year ago. 28% from 3 is not exactly what you’d dream up for a team that was 276th in 3-point shooting last year. However, when you dive a little deeper, you see Jones has been much more efficient in year’s past on lower volume, and his percentages on set shots are much better than off the dribble. The Salukis needed him to be a major playmaker and he was forced to take a lot of tough shots. Painter and co will hope his percentages rise as he gets more wide open shots from Edey post-ups. He also is great in transition and on straight line drives as a finisher. He is not an explosive athlete, but was 2x All-Defense in the MVC so he brings a level of tenacity these Boilers need on Defense. He should have a solid role off the bench this season for the Boilers.  

Freshman Class:

Colvin comes to the Boilers with a ton of potential, as he’s a gifted athlete and by his SR year had really developed a nice looking jumper. He’s at his best when out in transition, and will bring much needed bounce and athleticism to this Purdue program. He already has elite ability when attacking the basket, and shows the creativity and control to glide past defenders and finish above the rim with ease. However, what could allow him to become an All-Conference or even an NBA pick one day is his shot making. If he can pair his athleticism with a complete offensive game at all 3 levels, which he shows flashes of, then I see no reason to think he won’t be a 1st round NBA pick one day. He has the size and the athleticism, he’ll just need to prove he can consistently knock down shots. He will have a chance to compete with fellow FR Cam Heide and vet Ethan Morton for minutes at the 3 spot right away. [Comp – Jarrett Culver] 

 

Heide came to Purdue in the 2022 class as a pure shooter, and spent a year as a RS ideally improving physically and defensively. He wasn’t the quickest or the strongest coming out of HS, but he has a pure stroke and some craftiness to his game off the bounce. The Boilers need him to be able to hang defensively and be an effective shooter, as they were desperately missing that knockdown wing they’ve had in the past. It’s hard to project just how much he improved this last season as a RS, but some added strength and quickness, to go with his pure jumper could have him contending with Ethan Morton for the lion’s share of minutes at the 3 spot. Morton struggled mightily to hit shots last year, and the Boilers need shooting more than ever after losing to FDU missing 21 threes. [Comp – Pat Connaughton]

  Will Berg (RS)

Another RS from Purdue’s big 2022 class Berg came to Purdue looking to be its next freakish big man to come out of nowhere. He is 7’2″ but is a little more mobile at this stage than Edey was. He also has a pretty jump shot, that looks natural and athletic for someone his size. He has undoubtedly been working on his inside game, namely the hook shot that Purdue big men have been dominating with for a decade. What could separate him from those other guys though is the ability to stretch the floor and knock down 3’s. At best this year Berg will see some minutes behind Edey, as he has to compete with fellow bigs Trey Kaufman-Renn and Caleb Furst. It may be another year before Mr. Berg is unleashed on the Big Ten, and by then he might be a problem. [Comp – Kristaps Porzingis] 

2023-24 Prediction

We’re not going to beat around the bush here, the Boilermakers, and Matt Painter especially, need to get the March Madness monkey off their back. Painter has been at the helm for 18 seasons now, with 14 tourney bids, 6 Sweet 16 appearances, and just once has made it beyond that to the Elite 8, with no Final 4’s. With a returning NPOY alongside the exact same starting group that won the Big Ten and was a 1 seed in the tournament all back, that remains baseline for expectations. They have to have their eyes set on a repeat, and then March success. So, how do they do that? First they have to be better taking care of the basketball, which starts with growth from Smith and Loyer in the backcourt. They were thrown to the fire as true FR and at times it was ugly, no more so than the loss to FDU in which they accounted for 10 turnovers. They also have to improve their outside shooting, as they shot a putrid 32% a season ago, good for 276th in the Nation. Cam Heide and Lance Jones figure to be key candidates to help contribute to that as fresh blood, but some returning guys like Loyer and Morton could improve as well. Morton shot 44% his SO year, but just 28% a year ago. Somewhere in the middle of that is a big step forward and a big help to take some heat off of Edey. Some people will cry out for a change in style or approach, declaring this style of play as one you can’t win in the tournament with. I think that’s short-sighted, as many said the same thing about Tony Bennett and Virginia, until they did it. And yes, they’ve followed that Championship up with multiple early exits, but still they proved it’s possible, albeit more difficult. I see this Painter, old-school, back to the basket big man style in the same vein. Yes it’s more difficult, but to steal a line from Painter himself, if they were just consistently better at what they do then they would find more success. Don’t turn it over 16 times and miss 21 threes and you probably don’t lose to FDU. That will undoubtedly be the message all season long, as these Boilers try to prove the big man ain’t dead yet. 

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