2023-24 pre-season rankings

Listen, this Blue Devils roster might be one of the most loaded rosters we’ve seen out of Durham, and that says a lot given the talent that has come through. To get all the returning options plus four 5-Star recruits puts them in prime position to be a dominant force. Kyle Filipowski is a pre-season All-American candidate and a guy that can absolutely dominate and impact the game on both ends. We saw this young group a year ago struggle to score due to a lack of outside shooting ability, so the fact that the FR McClain and Foster come in with reputations as great shooters, especially McClain who can score at every level, despite not being the greatest athlete. Foster is a little bigger and can be a huge threat from 3, so that gives you hope they improve on that end. I think we see an inverse in ability with this Duke group this season, as Lively and Whitehead exit as impact defenders but were guys who didn’t add much offensively. The guys incoming can score, so a team who was 40th offensively should see much improvement. However, on the other end without those guys I could see some regression there, but they shouldn’t be bad by any means. Look for the returning 4 vets (Roach, Proctor, Mitchell, Filipowski) to start, with Power potentially starting alongside Filipowski in the front-court as he has emerged recently as a much better shooter to go along with his combo forward skill set. That would leave the other 3 5-star FR on the bench, but by no means will that be a certainty, especially with their scoring prowess. Duke should be ranked no. 1 quite often this season and all the pressure to get back to the Final 4 is back in full force for this storied program.

UNC – (#2) (#9)

2023 was a weird year for the Tar Heels as it was a follow-up to a Final Four run that included most of the major players from that team. They struggled to defend and shot the ball horrifically on their way to missing the NCAA tourney all together. Caleb Love is gone, and frankly I think that is a good thing, as he often displayed horrible shot selection and was erratic as a playmaker. With RJ Davis and Armando Bacot back and this haul of transfers I think UNC is poised to have a bounce back season. RJ Davis is much more sound as a PG, and without Love taking the air out of the ball I think that 1-2 punch is going to be much more efficient. They also brought in transfers Harrison Ingram, Cormac Ryan, Jae’lyn Withers and Paxson Wojcik who all can contribute offensively. I would imagine Withers and Ingram will start alongside Bacot and then one of Ryan and Wojcik will get the nod in the backcourt with Davis. That is a compelling lineup, but they obviously need to be both more efficient on offense and play much better defensively, as they were 51st and 46th respectively in ’23. They will also have guards Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble along with Jalen Washington as a backup behind Bacot. Cadeau has a bright future and will be fighting for playing time, but he comes in as an elite scorer that has bounce and plays fearlessly. I would imagine he will have some moments this year, but he probably needs some time to develop as a PG. They recently brought in Okonkwu as well for some front court depth. All in all there’s plenty of talent here for the Tar Heels to spring back into relevance, but if it’s another year of not delivering on that talent then Hubert Davis’ seat is going to begin to warm, as many forget that ’22 Final Four run was a team that was a 9 seed, not exactly a great season outside of that March run.

Clemson – (#3) (NR)

Brad Brownell has consistently had this program on the fringe, always competitive but never quite good enough to get into the dance and have an impact (with 2018 being an exception). I think this season could have some 2018 potential, as they bring back Hall and Hunter who are legit All-Conference guys and their 2 best players from a year ago (they were 23-10). They also brought in some big time transfers, most notably Joseph Girard from Syracuse and Jake Heidbreder from Air Force. Both of those guys will bring scoring ability alongside Hunter and Hall which will make the Tigers a problem to slow down. I think we see Jack Clark join the previous 4 in the starting lineup at the 4 spot, which gives them 4 guys who averaged 13+ ppg and Clark at 9. Plus a bench of Leyte, Hemenway, Schieffelin and Godfrey gives them plenty of depth and shooters all over the place. Now for the other side of the court, last season was a struggle at 61st in the country, but Brownell historically has had disciplined teams defensively when they have success, as all 3 of his tourney teams have been top-20 defensively. They may not have to be that good to be relevant, but I would expect some progress to be made on that end. All in all I think Clemson has the talent to be a top-25 team, be relevant in the ACC and go dancing for just the 4th time in Brownell’s 14th year here.

Miami (FL) – (#4) (NR)

Miami has been the exception to the rule here at 5-Star over the past couple of years, as they’ve been able to go on runs in March despite being bad defensively. Last year was the peak of such exception making, as they became the worst team defensively (132nd) per Kenpom to make the Final Four since 2005 (and most likely longer, my data begins in 2005). They continue to buck the trend, with multiple guys who can score 1 on 1 like Jordan Miller and Isaiah Wong, but both of those guys are gone, so it will be interesting how they replace that production. The good news is Norchad Omier and Nijel Pack are back along with role guys like Wooga Poplar and Bensley Joseph. To round out a solid 5 they brought in Matthew Cleveland (FSU) to give them 3 guys who averaged 13+ ppg. Offensively they could take a step back, unless some of the ancillary guys step up, so this may finally be the year their dreadful defense actually comes back to bite them. The last two years they were >100 defensively but still notched Final 4 and Elite 8 runs, but it’s hard to imagine that Cleveland and the role players can make up for the losses of Wong and Miller. I think this version of the Hurricanes will still be good, but not top-25 good and will be at best on the 7-10 range come tourney time.

Virginia – (#5) (NR)

Listen, this is a near complete rebuild for Virginia and Coach Bennett, and frankly it’s time for some fresh blood for this program as they are 0-2 in the dance with a missed tourney as well since their 2019 National Championship. This year will be all about the transfers, as all 4 of these guys could start, with Groves and Minor having major roles in the front-court. The one guy people are most excited about is Ryan Dunn, who fans expect to take a step forward and play a ton at both the 3 and 4. He’s a lanky athlete that showed a ton of promise a year ago. Guard play should be a strength, as they get Beekman and McKneely back plus a true PG in Dante Harris (Georgetown) and Rohde (St. Thomas) who filled it up a year ago. Someone not often mentioned but sure to be a factor is RS from a year ago Leon Bond who was a 4-Star recruit that could play the 2 or 3 in a rotational role. At the end of the day there’s a lot of unknown but also some steadiness with Bennett, as we know how they are going to play, with stifling defense and a methodical offense. The great Virginia teams have had guards who can score, and physical, versatile forwards who helped make life miserable for opponents. Most of all they could snipe from distance, and that appears to be where this Virginia team could fall short based on the profiles of this roster. Sure things could change, but outside of Beekman, McKneely and Groves, the roster is full of guys who were sub-35% from 3. They will be good defensively, but I feel the lack of shooters will limit how good this group can be, so look for them to be in the 7-10 range in March, but have a good year in the ACC because they don’t lose to bad teams.

N.C. State – (#7) (NR)

Kevin Keatts and the Wolfpack enter ’23-’24 looking to build off of a tourney bid season for the first time since 2018. They had prolific guard play a season ago but their 2 leading scorers are out so they went to the transfer portal to try and replace them. In comes a trio of proven scorers in DJ Horne, Jayden Taylor and Kam Woods who combined with Casey Morsell coming back create a very solid backcourt. All 4 of them are big time scorers, with Woods and Horne being the better playmakers for others, so those guys should handle the PG duties. Those guys paired with big man DJ Burns Jr and we have the makings of another offense that will be tough to slow down. The issue was and will continue to be on the other end, which seems to be a trend in the ACC, but the Wolfpack lost many games due to their inability to get stops. There is also the chance that these guards just aren’t as good as Smith and Joiner were a year ago, and if they don’t improve defensively I can see them having a worse season. Keatts has been to the dance 4 times in 9 seasons as a head coach, but has gone 0-4, so a tourney win has to be the goal and frankly the guard talent is that of a team that can get in and make some noise, but not if they can’t defend at least a little bit. They are right there with Wake Forest, can score but can they stop anybody?

Wake Forest – (#7) (NR)

Steve Forbes has been trying to gain traction since he got to campus, and after a couple of decent years he has compiled a roster with enough talent to get back to the tourney for the 1st time since 2017. The returning talent is solid, with 4 major contributors and 3 double digit scorers, but it’s the transfers that have me thinking they could finally break through. Efton Reid and Hunter Sallis are both 5-star recruits out of high school, and while bouncing around programs is not a great sign I do think Sallis at least still has great potential. Reid is going to be good not great, but he also may not be eligable, which would hamper this group. Sallis getting full run will be fun to watch, especially with Monsanto and Hildreth in the backcourt. Matthew Marsh is still there at the 5, but a lot of pressure will be on him if Reid doesn’t get cleared. What gives me pause is their efforts, or lack thereof, defensively have been abysmal. Last season they were 133rd on that end, and while they could score with anyone they routinely lost because they couldn’t get stops. If they buckle down a little bit on that end I think they could be a real problem in the ACC, especially if all this talent gels offensively. I’m cautiously optimistic, with the ceiling here being a solid season and a tourney berth where that backcourt could make some noise. Obviously, the bust potential is there with reliance on transfers, but I like where Forbes is headed here.

Syracuse – (#8) (NR)

The truth is we really don’t know what the new look Orange will actually play like, with new Coach Adrian Autry taking over for Boeheim, it remains to be seen if the 2-3 zone will remain. What we do know is they have 3 legit scoring options with Judah Mintz, JJ Starling and Benny Williams. All 3 of those guys should be reliable options, with Mintz looking to push for an All-American bid after playing really well last year. They brought in several other transfers that were well regarded out of high school but didn’t get much playing time previously, plus a litany of small time producers from last years group return as well. It was clearly stale the last few years under Boeheim, so a Autry will hope to be the breath of fresh air the program was needing, and he’ll have the history and brand of Syracuse behind him if he can just show some signs of life this year they could become a destination again. I don’t think it’ll be a quick rebound into relevancy, but they could scrap there way into the tourney if those top 3 play really well and they improve on the defensive end (185th in 2023). There’s also the reality that they’re just average, and missing the tourney is certainly a likely scenario.

Pitt – (#9) (NR)

We’re really splitting hairs with all of the middle of the pack ACC teams, but Pitt worries me due to the amount of losses they are trying to replace. They get back leading scorer Blake Hinson and rotational big men in Federiko and the Diaz–Graham brothers, but the entire rest of the roster is going to be transfers and Freshman. Now, this incoming FR group looks really good for the future, but there aren’t mega impact guys in year 1. The two big transfers in Leggett and Austin are going to have to be great for Pitt to really have a chance at relevancy, and they did score well last year so it’s possible. The FR Jaland Lowe is also an important name to watch, as he’s the only true PG on the roster. He is a lanky, athletic kid that has a smoothness to his game that should help him have a role this year, and if he can play smart he could start for them. Last year this group was all about the offense, but Burton, Cummings, Sibande and Elliott were all super important to that top-25 ranked O that was able to fight into the 2nd round of the tourney after starting in Dayton. I don’t see as high of a ceiling this year, but with a talent like Hinson, it’s possible that these FR grow up quickly and the transfers mesh well and they can sneak into the dance for a 2nd straight season, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Florida St – (#10) (NR)

Leonard Hamilton has been a mainstay at Florida St for 2 decades, but it feels like the wheels are starting to fall off on this program after a really good stretch from ’17-’21 that included 2 Sweet 16’s and an Elite 8 run. The last two year’s have been horrible, finishing 105th and 205th in Kenpom, and Hamilton is no longer landing big time recruits a la Scottie Barnes, Patrick Williams and Jonathan Isaac as he has in the past. On the positive, the transfers are all really talented, with Primo Spears (Georgetown) leading that charge, as he’ll take complete control as the PG this year. Watkins (VCU) and Nickelberry (La Salle) will also have major roles alongside Cam’Ron Fletcher (back from injury) and vets Green Jr, Corhen and Warley. There’s enough talent here to have some hope, but the way it’s gone the last two years you have to have a wait and see approach. Hamilton has always been a guy that plays a high tempo, with deep rotations, but i’m just not seeing the talent level being there for that to garner good results. Maybe after a couple of seasons in the cellar he will switch things up, especially since he doesn’t have the depth of 7-footers he normally has. Best case scenario here is they got rid of some bad apples and the transfers bring the influx of talent that can at least have them as a bubble team, I don’t see it much better than that. In the end, it’s likely another tough year in Tallahassee and while Hamilton has earned a long leash, it might be time for a fresh face.

Virginia Tech – (#11) (NR)

Mike Young has been ok since getting to VA Tech, as they’ve gotten to two tourney’s but really haven’t done much outside of that fact. I am not inspired into thinking it will be better this year by this roster he has put together, especially with the lack of big men. Pedulla, Cattoor and Rice are all decent guards, but beyond that they’ll be relying on transfers Beran (Northwestern), Nickel (UNC) and Long (ODU) along with Lynn Kidd to try and produce in the front court. I have to be honest I’m struggling to find something to be excited about with this program right now, but I guess if you watch you should get to see a lot of 3’s, which some people find exciting. The deal really is they just don’t have enough top end talent, and that’s not a slight against Pedulla and Cattoor, who are really good, they just aren’t elite and there’s a pretty big drop off after them. They won’t be horrible, but I don’t see them getting in the dance or winning any big time games.

Georgia Tech – (#12) (NR)

In this day and age there are more programs mired with instability than we’ve ever seen, and it’s at this point in the ACC preview that we dive into several of those programs. GA Tech hired a splashy name in Damon Stoudamire, and they’ve had to bring in 10 new scholarship players to help fill up the roster. Mighty Mouse was able to retain several of the productive guards from last year’s team, selling his NBA experience no doubt, and it’s that retention and the haul of transfers that have the Yellow Jackets higher for me than some of the other rebuilds we are seeing in this Conference. They get 4 guys back that averaged between 8 and 14 ppg and also welcome a cople of transfers in Kowacie Reeves (Florida) and Tyzhaun Claude (W. Carolina) who should start and have an impact right away. They are going to be thin and not very good in the frontcourt, but the guards give them something to build on. This program hasn’t won a tourney game since 2010, so Stoudamire comes in looking at that benchmark as the goal, and his NBA connections should help him draw talent, so things are looking up, but this isn’t going to be an immediate turn around, it’s going to take some time.

Boston College – (#13) (NR)

The standards of success might be the lowest in the ACC at BC, and last year was a step in the right direction winning 9 Conference games for the first time since 2011. Sure, it was still a sub-.500 season but we’re talking about BC here, they haven’t gone dancing since 2009 so the bar is low. Earl Grant enters year 3 with the program on the up, and the transfer Claudell Harris Jr (Charleston So), along with the return of big man Quinten Post gives them some hope for another decent season. Of course, I have them 13th, so the likelihood they get 9 wins again is pretty low, especially with the influx of talent throughout the Conference. They may be just about as good as last year, but the Conference is going to be tougher, so I think it’ll be tough sledding for the Eagles once again.

Louisville – (#14) (NR)

Well, it can’t be worse than last year right? Kenny Payne came to Louisville and endured a brutal 1st season that is the worst season that I can remember from a power conference team, winning just 4 games. Out with the old and in with the new I guess, as they bring back only 4 major contributors, with 3 transfers and 6 Freshmen incoming. The transfers White (USC) and Clark (Illinois) were both 4-star recruits who have several years of eligibility left, so they join this young group of FR trying to return this program to something resembling its former self. FR Evans and Flowers both look like really talented prospects so if Payne can actually coach I think in a year or two Louisville could be back to winning games again. However, I’m don’t think Payne is the guy, to say the least, so I look for another tough season for the Cardinals.

Notre Dame – (#15) (NR)

I am a huge Shrewsberry fan, as a Purdue guy of course, but this is by far the least talented roster in the Conference. He is a great Coach, and will get Notre Dame turned around, but this is not going to be the year he finds success. They will probably out perform their talent level, while many of these ACC teams underperform theirs, but that still will probably leave them at the bottom. It’s a football school so he’s going to have a long leash, but he needs to quickly start bringing talent into the program. For now, they’ll just have to scrap and claw, with very little college experience to go to, with nobody who has averaged above 5 ppg. Give Shrews some time, he’ll have the Irish relevant, it just isn’t going to be this season.