2023-24 Pre-Season Rankings

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Houston – (Conf-#1) (Nat-#5)

Nobody is willing to admit it but I think it’s time we start naming Kelvin Sampson as one of the best coaches in the Country. He should be right there with Bill Self, Mark Few and Tom Izzo in terms of current Coaches, as he completely turned around Houston and has them year in and year out contending on a National scale. Last year was a disappointing Elite 8 exit, yeah, disappointing, that’s when you know things are great. And what you love most about Sampson and these Houston teams is the way they play and how he develops these kids into absolute dogs. They aren’t 5-star NBA guys, for the most part, but they play tough and together, something harder and harder to find in major college basketball. That is why I have them on top of the Big 12 in year 1, they’re a nightmare to play. Everyone loves Hunter Dickinson and Kansas, but give me Houston. I know they lost Sasser, Walker and Mark, all double digit scorers, but The transfers LJ Cryer (Baylor) and Damian Dunn (Temple) are going to step right in and fill the void. Jamal Shead and J’Wan Roberts are back as the steady vets, and guys like Arceneaux, Francis, Sharp and Walker are back as younger guys ready to take the next step. A key guy to watch is FR Joseph Tugler, he’s the exact prototype for Sampson, an undersized PF who has a never ending motor and will be critical as a backup to Roberts and Francis in the frontcourt. Overall this one is about the combination of culture, coaching and talent, if you know you know.

Kansas – (#2) (#8)

This Kansas roster was just about wiped clean after last year, with just 4 guys returning, only 3 of which had major roles. This is just modern college basketball at this point, where if you bring in top-50 guys and expect them to sit for a year or two they will be out the door. Guys like Pettiford, Rice and Cuffe all have potential but didn’t want to wait around to see the floor. Now, after the dismissal of Arterio Morris, Kansas will have 7 scholarship guys that aren’t Freshman, with the 3 incoming FR rounding out the 10 guys they have. The backcourt is completely depleted beyond the top guys, and the frontcourt again doesn’t have much experience beyond the starters. The reason they’re still this high though is how good this starting lineup will look, on paper. Hunter Dickinson is clearly the shiny new toy at C, but you also have G Nick Timberlake coming in after avg nearly 18 ppg shooting 42% from 3. He, Harris and McCullar provide a tough starting backcourt, and with KJ Adams joining Dickinson up front, the starting 5 is as good as there is in the Country. The issue is depth, with the 2 FR Jackson and Furphy being the next two in the backourt it could be tough sledding off the bench. If Dickinson gets in foul trouble or there’s an injury to one of the top guys, the lack of depth is going to rear its ugly head. Yes, the starting 5 is elite, but the depleted roster is going to haunt the Jayhawks throughout the season. I think they will struggle defensively as well, because Dickinson and Adams will need to be conservative to stay out of foul trouble. I still obviously think they’re going to be really good, but give me Houston if we’re talking best of the best.

TCU – (#3) (#19)

TCU enters this season on the back of 2 straight NCAA tournament appearances and 2 straight 1st round wins in the dance. They lose a lot of production with Miles and Baugh both exiting, but Emmanuel Miller returning to join up with this massive cast of transfers gives Jamie Dixon and co. plenty to be excited about. Leading the transfer pool is Jameer Nelson Jr, who was one of the most productive PG’s in the Country a year ago and should take full control of this team alongside Miller. They also get guards Trevian Tennyson (Tx A&M CC) and Avery Anderson III (Ok St) who were double digit scorers a year ago to add depth to the 1-3 spots, with Peavy and O’Bannon Jr back as well to play on the wing in the 3 or 4 spots. They will have a ton of depth, with a solid 10 guys so that won’t be a concern, it’ll mostly be how the guys from last year’s group gel with the 5 new transfers. It’s been done with success in college basketball, but we’ve also seen teams just never really click with all the transfers. I’m apt to believe more often than not teams like this will figure it out, every basketball player grows up playing AAU and pickup basketball where you play with different guys. So long as they don’t have ego issues, this team has the talent to repeat last season’s run and maybe even have a better end result if they can rebound the ball a little better and be better than 330th shooting 3’s. They addressed the rebounding issue with the additions of Mostafa (Coastal Carolina), who averaged a double-double and Udeh (Kansas) who is a nice prospect. Dixon really has a chance here with all of this talent, so this could be the year he gets TCU into the 2nd weekend for the first time ever.

Texas – (#4) (#23)

Despite the chaos that was last season with Chris Beard being ran out of town mid-season and Rodney Terry taking over, Texas was able to manage and get to an Elite 8 with Terry running things. It was a huge success in the face of adversity, but now much of the talent that Beard had amassed is gone, and Terry is going to have to prove he can put together a new roster and maintain the culture. The good news is he was able to land some big time talent, with Max Abmas, one of the best scorers in the country, highlighting the incoming group. I’m not exactly convinced it’s a great pairing with Tyrese Hunter, especially with how small both guys are, but that will surely be their starting backcourt. They also get Dylan Disu back, and with how strongly he played down the stretch last season he’s a huge breakout candidate if he can stay healthy. Dillon Mitchell joins Disu as a guy with a ton of promise as he was a top recruit and can jump out of the building. Ultimately, the talent is there, but what Terry is able to do as a HC is still up in the air. Despite guiding last year’s team to a Big 12 tourney championship and a trip to the elite 8 I think it is much more of a challenge to bring in a crop of transfers and create a new team identity with a new group. He took over what Beard had built and was a steady hand to keep it going, which was a great sign, but what he’s able to do on his own will be the true test of whether he’s at Texas long term. If everything clicks, I still am not convinced this group is talented enough to win the Big 12, but they should be back in the tourney. The weaknesses could be defensively, with undersized Abmas and Hunter, and a thin front court they may struggle more on that end this year. They may look a lot different, with athleticism and several shooters they may just run and gun and try and outscore teams, but that all depends on Terry and his philosophy, which is hard to gauge given he’s only been a HC at the mid-major level where he had less talent to work with. So, in the end, there are a lot of question marks obviously, but there’s a ton of talent here to work with, so anything less than a tourney appearance would be a failure in my opinion.

Baylor – (#5) (NR)

Scott Drew enters 2023 as one of the more underrated coaches in the Country, and Baylor can’t take for granted the stability he’s providing in Waco. Last year’s group, while not perfect (107th on D), won 23 games and lost a tough 2nd round game as a 3 seed to a very good Creighton team. They’ve now been a 1-1-3 seeds over the last 3 season’s, with one Natty in there so it’s been quite a good run. Now, they lost their entire backcourt from last year with George, Flagler and Cryer all gone, so it’s a bit of a new era as only JTT remains from the Championship team now. To replace the backcourt they’ve brought in two big time transfers in RayJ Dennis (Toledo) and Jayden Nunn (VCU), along with 5-Star FR Ja’Kobe Walter. Langston Love also joins that group to create a solid 4, plus Miro Little as a top-50 recruit who will fight for time. I do think this group will be the strength, and alongside Jalen Bridges can continue their run as an elite offensive team (top-10 last 3 seasons). The key to this new version of Baylor to be contenders is going to be improving defensively and how productive Ja’Kobe Walter can be. Walter comes in as a high volume scorer, with ability at all 3 levels as he uses is length and athleticism to score at will. He’s a guy who knows no bad shot though, so his development in the area of shot selection could also be key. Dennis is a playmaker at PG, so if guys like Walter, Love, Bridges and Nunn can knock down shots he could average 8+ assists and they could score 80+ on anybody. The x-factor will be defense, as Drew has historically had great defensive teams, but last year’s group was his worst on that end since 2009. They should be back in the dance, but I’m not sure their ceiling is quite what it’s been over the last 3 years.

BYU – (#6) (NR)

Mark Pope has been on the cusp of getting BYU to enter relevancy on the National stage, and now with the move to the Big 12 I think Pope and this program are poised to take a step forward. They were inconsistent a year ago, losing to teams like South Dakota and Pepperdine, while beating teams like Creighton and Utah and nearly knocking off both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, losing to both by just 1 point at home. They have brought in 3 major guys to help bolster a group that returns 7 of the 9 rotation guys a year ago, led by leading scorer Fousseyni Traore and 3rd leading scorer Spencer Johnson. The newcomers are headlined by G Dawson Baker (UC Irvine) who scored in double figures in 30 games a year ago, doing it from all 3 levels. He is going to be a major boost for them offensively, as is transfer big man Aly Khalifa (Charlotte) who is 6’11” and shot 38% from 3 on 128 attempts. Jaxson Robinson, the transfer from Arkansas is also back, and he has potential to continue to improve after a nice season. As do both 2022 FR Dallin Hall and Richie Saunders, who had nice first season’s and stand to take a jump in year 2. There’s just something about this roster that gets me excited, and what really convinced me they will be dancing was the addition of FR Marcus Adams Jr, who de-committed from Kansas to come to BYU. This kid has the potential to really be a big time college basketball player, and should find a way to have an impact year 1. He has a similar play style to a guy like Keyontae Johnson, and similar to Keyontae he may not pop off year 1, but eventually if he stays at BYU he could be a star here. They will legitimately go 10 deep with this team, and probably will play a constantly rotating cast. What will really determine how good they can be is their outside shooting, which was bad a year ago but stands to improve based on the transfers. But then there’s the defense…that end of the floor has to improve if they want to contend in this league. I think it will, and I think this BYU team makes some noise and gets in the dance in year 1 in the Big 12.

Kansas St – (#7) (NR)

It’s easy to look at the returning roster and think man, this could be a tough year for Jerome Tang and K-State. However, you have to remember Tang brought in a haul of transfers last season to put together a team alongside Markquis Nowell that started 15-1 and went on a run to the Elite 8. With 3 solid contributors back and a solid group of transfers again, I don’t think you can quickly dismiss this year’s Wildcats. The big splash transfer was obviously Arthur Kaluma from Creighton, and while his numbers aren’t as big he was option 3 or 4 on a great team, now he steps in as probably the most talented guy on this roster. The backcourt also got beefed up, with headliner Tylor Perry (N. Texas) who averaged 17 ppg on a ridiculous 41% from 3 on very high volume with 111 made 3’s. Ques Glover is another high volume scorer who will be a nice pairing with Perry, although small defensively, these two should be scoring at a high level all season. On the interior they get Tomlin and N’Guessan back and bring in McNair (Miss St) as a rotational piece. I would imagine they play small as they did last year, with Kaluma taking the Keyontae position at the 4. It’s impossible to just replace what Nowell and Johnson provided, but the additions sure look like they can, at the very least, fill most of the production void. It will be good for them to at least have more options this year, as they had to heavily rely on the Johnson and Nowell last year, but with Kaluma, Perry and Glover they have 3 legit scoring options. Depth is going to be a concern, with only 7 guys who have major experience, with two RS Freshman also around to fight for minutes. I don’t see this group having the ceiling of last year’s, but with Tang at the helm and all this talent incoming I would imagine they get in the tourney once again.

Iowa St – (#8) (NR)

TJ Otzelberger deserves a ton of credit for what he’s done at Iowa St, as he came in and established a very different culture and style of play that has yielded great results. Now, you may be thinking, Iowa St is disgusting to watch, and that is very true, but it’s the beauty of college basketball in my mind. That a team can be so dog shit scoring the basketball and yet find a way to be relevant by defending like mad men. They have been top-10 defensively each of his 2 years, which hadn’t happened at Iowa St since 2005. It resulted in 2 NCAA tourney berths and one trip to the Sweet 16, despite the fact they ranked 114th and 171st offensively. It’s not pretty, but I love it. Now, many of the guys from a year ago are gone, so we’re going to see how this culture of defense translates. He did his best to address the offensive issues, bringing in 3 guys who shot between 36-39% from 3 and all averaged double digit scoring. All 3 of Paveltzke, Jones and Gilbert should have major roles, 2 of which should start next to Lipsey who returns at PG. The frontcourt will be the same with grinders Robert Jones and Tre King back, but the shiny new toy is clearly 5-Star FR Omaha Biliew. Do yourself a favor and go watch his highlight reel on youtube, he has some vicious dunks and is an absolute freak of an athlete. He’s built like LeBron, and of course he doesn’t have the skillset but that level of strength and explosiveness will allow him to be productive right away for the Cyclones. If the older vets can hold onto the defensive mindset they’ve had over the past couple of years, this could be the best team TJ has had, with 3 legit scorers incoming and Biliew who gives them a legit lottery pick who can impact the game on both ends. Expect Iowa St to be right there again battling for a spot in the dance in a deep Big 12 Conference that could get 8-9 teams in.

West Virginia – (#9) (NR)

The Mountaineers are right there with the likes of St. John’s and Ole Miss in the competition for most radical turnover within a program. Bob Huggins is gone, and nearly every scholarship player from his last team followed him out the door in one way or another. Interim HC Josh Eilert is a complete wild card, getting his first HC gig after being in the program since 2013, we have no idea what his style will be. What we do know is his haul of transfers is full of talent, with 4 guys who averaged double digits scoring and the potential to play 7 guys who have big time experience in college basketball. Now, how all of that gels together with a brand new coach is beyond anything you can predict, so I’m going to bet on it working decently well and if that does happen here is where I think they could sit. Kerr Kriisa and Jesse Edwards are the headliners as they make a great combo at PG and C. The 2-4 spots should be solid as well, but especially if and when RaeQuan Battle gets cleared after transferring in late. They have other options with Silverio and Farrakhan on the wings and then Akok and Slazinski at the 4 spot. That is a compelling lineup that, if well coached, could make some noise in the Big 12 and should be fighting to make the tourney. Obviously, there’s huge bust risk with this experiment, and Eilert will surely have a short leash so this take could age very poorly. However, I’m going to bet on talent and bet on a guy who has been grinding for this kind of opportunity. I hope he doesn’t strike out.

Oklahoma – (#10) (NR)

This is where we draw a line for the potential contenders to make the tourney in this Conference, as the next 5 to me will not have much of a chance in this deep league. The best of the worst for me is likely going to be Oklahoma though. That being said, the Porter Moser experiment has mostly been a failure, as the Sooners were perennial tourney qualifiers and have been nowhere close in the two years under Moser. I do think Moser is a good coach, but in these times of massive turnover, if you don’t win guys are going to transfer out, and that is what we’re seeing with this program. 5 transfers out and 5 new guys in to replace them this year, so we’ll see if Moser can finally gel a group and maybe get some stability heading into next season. McCollum, Darthard and Hugley are all good scorers that should hopefully help them out offensively, where they were 74th a year ago. A guy that has to be highlighted for any sickos that are reading this Oklahoma preview, is incoming FR Kaden Cooper. This guy has unreal bounce, and reminds you of former Purdue great Jaden Ivey with the way he attacks the rim and can shoot from outside. He doesn’t have quite the burst of Ivey, but has a very similar game, so he’s a huge get for Moser if he can hold on to him. The issue I see is on the interior, as they really don’t have much talent at the 5 spot, unless they’re playing 6’9″ Hugley and Godwin. That’s fine, and could be decent defensively if they can turn up the pressure having the athleticism advantage, but facing the likes of Hunter Dickinson or the guys at Houston, I just don’t see how they rebound or defend the paint well enough to win a lot of games in this league. Granted it’s not a great big man league but they’re going to have to hang their hat on the defensive end because the talent gap is big on the offensive side. Moser’s seat may get hot if they don’t show some life this year.

Cincy – (#11) (NR)

Obviously, when you loose a coach like Mick Cronin your program is going to take a hit, especially when you’re not a blue blood. However, I do think Wes Miller has potential to bring this program back, especially with the move to the Big 12 and its push to be a basketball conference, I just don’t see it being this year. They brought in some decent transfers, highlighted by CJ Fredrick (Kentucky) who is one of the best pure shooters in the Country. They are kind of the antithesis to Oklahoma, as they have rich resources in the front court but the 1-3 spots are mostly unproven guys behind Lukosius and Fredrick. When I look at this group on paper I mostly think, meh. Some guys who have had decent careers have transferred in and most of their productive guys from last year are gone outside of Victor Lahkin. This Conference is just too deep and too talented for them to really stand a chance, so I’m going to focus on the bright spots which are the 2 FR guards. Now, in this day and age it’s very difficult to hold on to top-100 recruits when you don’t win much, but we’re going to pretend these are 3-4 year Cincy guys. The first is Rayvon Griffith, who isn’t going to wow you athletically but he shows promise as a shooter from both 3 and the midrange. He is good off the catch and can attack off the bounce and pull up in the midrange, so over time he looks like he can become a double digit scorer. Next is Jizzle James, son of Edgerrin James (former NFL RB), who is built well (shocker) but isn’t the most explosive athlete and will have to develop some craft to his game to really be an impact PG at the next level. He does show poise with the ball and has a nice looking jumper, so his potential is certainly there and brings some star power for a program that certainly needs it. All in all, I’m not going to pay much mind to Cincy, but there could be some fun Big 12 games in their building if they can pull an upset or 2. That’s about the ceiling here.

Oklahoma St – (#12) (NR)

Mike Boynton has seemed to establish a bit of a hard nosed culture that has produced a top-20 defensive team over the past 3 years, but outside of 2021 when they had Cade Cunningham they have struggled mightily on the other side of the floor. The mystifying thing is how much talent they have had over the years, with not many good results, including last season with guys like Avery Anderson, Moussa Cisse and Bryce Thompson who were all big time recruits. The good news is Thompson is back, and effectively 3 more top-50 recruits are coming in, with Isaiah Miranda a RS that is tranferring in from NC State. Javon Small (ECU) is the clear highlight of the new group, as he did everything for ECU last year, so he should be the undisputed leader of this offense. The aforementioned Thompson will join him in the back court to create a decent duo. Similar to Cincy beyond those decent vets it’s about the FR and if Boynton can hold on to them and stabilize the program. Eric Dailey is the much more college ready prospect between the two, with a pretty jumper from the left side and the size to be a versatile defender at this level. He reminds you of a Miles Bridges type of guy, not explosively athletic but can get downhill and also take his time and get to his spots to score. He should have an role this season for the Cowboys. Garrison on the other hand is much more raw, but the physical gifts are off the charts as he has unreal length and coordination at his size. His strengths are shot blocking and rebounding at this stage, but with a few years of development has a chance to become a solid C, he just has to develop a skillset to allow him to be more than a defensive presence. All in all Boynton has to feel good about the young talent, but his seat is probably getting toasty as he’s really only had 1 successful season in 6 years at the helm. There’s been promising signs, but eventually missing the dance and being at the bottom of the league has to warm it up.

Texas Tech – (#13) (NR)

Mark Adams had a spectacular year 1 with Texas Tech but last year was a giant step backwards which resulted in his firing. In comes Grant McCasland after a string of very successful years at North Texas. He was able to go out and get some averagely good players, nothing that really jumps off the page though. Toussaint is a junkyard dog and they got a couple of solid guys from Arizona St in Washington and Cambridge who can come right in and produce. All of that being said the story is Pop Isaacs, who was a top-70 recruit and had a very nice FR year. If he is able to take a Sophomore jump and the transfers gel around him then they could end up higher than this slot. Now, they have to improve defensively after being 66th on that end a year ago, and that is McCasland’s calling card, as he likes to slow the game down and play a grinding style of defense. It’s tough to establish a culture of defense when you’re turning your roster over so heavily though, so I don’t have much hope for them getting to a high level super quickly, but it’s possible.. Yet and still, the ceiling is going to be all about Isaacs and how much he improves as a go-to scorer for them. Ultimately, it’s hard to trust a new HC to rebuild this entire roster and establish his culture right away, especially given the so-so talent he brought in. Ultimately I think this will be a tough year for the Red Raiders, but keep an eye on Pop Isaacs, who is a breakout candidate and could transform the hopes here if he pops off.

UCF – (#14) (NR)

The first year in the Big 12 is looking like it’s going to be a rough one for UCF, as they are right there with W. Virginia in terms of turning over a roster. Only 3 guys return, and Johnny Dawkins has now missed 4 straight tourney’s after breaking through in 2019. You don’t hear much about him but you look at his resume and it’s hard to have any confidence that he is going to breakthrough as a HC. Only 2 tourney appearances in 15 seasons with Stanford and UCF so it hasn’t really been a success. Still, he continues to bring in talent, with 3 double digit scorers from a year ago in Allen, Walton and Sellers. Also inside Diallo and Payne were both high major recruits who give them good size and athleticism. Some may have them higher, but honestly I just don’t see this experiment working out. They have been 100th or worse offensively the last 4 years, and I just doubt it gets any better this season. You see this alot from NBA guys, where they come down to college and expect guys with college skillsets to create and score 1-on-1 like they do in the NBA. That creates a very inefficient offense when the talent you’re working with doesn’t have the ability guys at the pro level have. And that’s what we’ve seen with Dawkins and that’s what I expect out of UCF this season as well. No creativity, no sets to get guys clean open looks, and they don’t have a clear dominant playmaker. That is a recipe for disaster in a league this good from top to bottom.