2023-24 Pre-Season Rankings

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Purdue – (Conf-#1) (Nat-#3)

We’re not going to beat around the bush here, the Boilermakers, and Matt Painter especially, need to get the March Madness monkey off their back. Painter has been at the helm for 18 seasons now, with 14 tourney bids, 6 Sweet 16 appearances, and just once has made it beyond that to the Elite 8, with no Final 4’s. With returning NPOY Zach Edey alongside the exact same starting group that won the Big Ten and was a 1 seed in the tournament all back, that remains baseline for expectations. They have to have their eyes set on a repeat, and then March success. So, how do they do that? First they have to be better taking care of the basketball, which starts with growth from Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer in the backcourt. They were thrown to the fire as true FR and at times it was ugly, no more so than the loss to FDU in which they accounted for 10 turnovers. They also have to improve their outside shooting, as they shot a putrid 32% a season ago, good for 276th in the Nation. Cam Heide and Lance Jones (SIU) figure to be key candidates to help contribute to that as fresh blood, but some returning guys like Loyer and Ethan Morton could improve as well. Morton shot 44% his SO year, but just 28% a year ago. Another sneaky addition is FR Myles Colvin, who’s at his best when out in transition, and will bring much needed bounce and athleticism to this Purdue program. He already has elite ability when attacking the basket, and shows the creativity and control to glide past defenders and finish above the rim with ease, so he could add a different skillset to this group. Some people will cry out for a change in style or approach, declaring this style of play as one you can’t win in the tournament with. I think that’s short-sighted, as many said the same thing about Tony Bennett and Virginia, until they did it. I see this Painter, old-school, back to the basket big man style in the same vein. Yes it’s more difficult, but to steal a line from Painter himself, if they were just consistently better at what they do then they would find more success. Don’t turn it over 16 times and miss 21 threes and you probably don’t lose to FDU. That will undoubtedly be the message all season long, as these Boilers try to prove the big man ain’t dead yet. 

Michigan St – (#2) (#7)

It’s kind of rinse and repeat for Tom Izzo and Michigan St as they continue to reload year after year. They enter this year with a great returning class mixed with a very promising FR class as well. Booker, Fears and Carr could all be contributors and push the veteran guys for playing time, especially as February and March hit. Booker is not your typical back to the basket punisher inside, as he really is most impressive in transition and on straight line drives. He’s going to be more dangerous as a face-up and attack off the bounce guy as well as just slashing/rolling to the rim. What really could turn him into a lottery pick is his jumper though, as it shows promise from the left side and could turn him into a really good NBA player. Fears is a freak athlete that comes to Sparty with a very high ceiling as he has great explosiveness as an athlete and is deadly in transition with the quickness and creativity to get the rim and score through and around defenders. Finally Carr, who eclipses both the other FR athletically, as he has a highlight reel of dunks to rival the best HS dunkers I’ve ever seen. He also shows ability to hit stand still 3’s from the left side, but makes his money attacking downhill and frankly dunking over everyone. Obviously, having 4 out of 5 starters back with Malik Hall also back to fill in the 5th spot they are universally a top-10 team pre-season. Especially coming off of a Sweet 16 run they are very clearly one of the favorites to cut nets down this season. I think their ceiling will be determined by just how good these Freshman can be by January and through March. Now, the negative, they were a 7 seed last year for a reason, and most of that was being bad defensively. They ended the season 42nd on defense, but their 2 wins in the tourney they held USC/Marquette to less than 1 point per possession. The Kansas St loss things got off the rails, but a continuation of playing better defense, especially with the length and athleticism they’ve added in this FR class they could be a real problem. We all know Izzo will have the squad playing great by March, but he may not have as much progress to make with so much experience returning. Malik Hall is also a candidate to have a breakout season, as he’s shown flashes of being an All-Conference guy but has struggled with injuries. Sparty should be right there with Purdue atop the Big Ten, and with Izzo at the helm should be a favorite to make a deep run in March. 

Illinois – (#3) (#11)

Underwood has so much to work with here with this roster he has built. Shannon Jr and Hawkins back as the centerpieces gives them veteran firepower, but the transfers are what look to push them into the top-15 or higher. I look for them to go small more often than not, with Hawkins at the 5 and Guerrier and Domask alongside. That starting lineup would give them 4 very good outside shooters, with Harris there to anchor things at the PG. Maybe that’s Harmon, who knows, but I really don’t think they’ll desperately need Harmon to create with the starting group. He’s a perfect spark plug kind of guy to come off the bench. The more I chew on this roster the more I love it, as they have Dainja there as well if they need to go big at times. There’s honestly no excuse why Underwood can’t get this talented group into the 2nd weekend in March and be contending for a Big Ten Championship. Anything less than that is an abject failure for this team, and frankly I won’t be shocked if that is exactly what happens. He’s had more talented teams, see Ayo and Kofi’s years. What typically happens with an Underwood coached team is lazy defensive stretches and a chaotic offense that relies on a guy like Shannon to create everything while the other 4 stand and watch. Hopefully, for Underwood’s sake, he can get some sort of offensive scheme developed for this group. He has shooters, he has playmakers, and even has a post presence with Dainja. Again, I can’t stress enough, no excuses why this team isn’t a Sweet 16 team at minimum and inside the top 10 or 15 all season long. 

Wisconsin – (#4) (#18)

This Wisconsin team doesn’t have the ceiling of a team a la 2022 with Johnny Davis, but this group is as solid as it gets below that elite tier. I love the backcourt of Hepburn, Essigian, Klesmit and Storr as they are all really good shooters and Storr is going to help relieve some of the playmaking duties from Chucky in the half-court. Steven Crowl should continue to be a 10-15 point a game guy and alongside Wahl form a really good front-court. They were a top-20 team defensively last year, that’s not going anywhere, it’s going to come down to scoring the basketball consistently. If they can get more efficient, they can really compete with these top teams in the Big Ten, and maybe be right there battling for a Ship come late February. They are right there with Purdue and Sparty with returning talent, they just have to find a way to close the gap between them that existed a season ago. I don’t see them winning the Conference, but being right there as that 2nd tier in the Big Ten is my expectation. Wahl is the question mark, as last year was marred with injuries but it was a huge regression year, down from a 107 offensive rating to 93. He went from 57% from 2 to 42%. Much of that could be due to injury, and a return to his previous form could also help elevate this Badger team. So much promise, but there’s still that chance they can’t score and find themselves struggling once again to sniff the tourney. The criticism would be this is basically the same team that missed the dance altogether last year, what a joke putting them in the top-25. Well this is Wisconsin, they actually develop players and I trust their history of getting 3 and 4 star kids to get better and better every year, so I’m buying the promise.

Maryland – (#5) (NR)

The Terps will roll out one of the best trios in the Conference in Young/Scott/Reese but have many question marks when it comes to the surrounding cast. They are a prime candidate for a team that could struggle early in the season but come on strong as the calendar turns. Harris-Smith is a kid fans are going to fall fast for, as he comes to College Park with a college ready frame and a ferocity to his game that is equally rare as it is endearing. The lefty is an attacker, playing at his best getting downhill and muscling his way to the rim, where he finishes with strength and absolutely no fear. He will be counted on right away alongside Young in the backcourt. They also will need Stephens and/or Long to step up and be able to knock down outside shots. They were awful a year ago from 3 as a team, but Long shot 40% on low volume and of course Stephens is a sniper so those two could be huge as role players to open things up. One thing we know about Willard coached teams is they are going to get after it on D, and Harris-Smith will only add to their physicality. The bottom line is with 3 guys capable of playing at an All-Conference level they should be in the upper half of the Conference and in and around the top-25 all season. Willard has proven to be able to get teams to the dance and build programs, but he hasn’t made it out of the 1st weekend in 6 tries. The expectations have to be to compete for a Conference championship and get over the March hump. While I don’t see them winning the Big Ten, they surely will make some noise with Jahmir Young leading the way.

Rutgers – (#6) (NR)

It was an unfortunate fall for Rutgers last season after they started 16-7, including a win @ Purdue, and then Mawot Mag went down with an injury. They finished the season 3-7 and missed the dance, and now have lost 3 core members of that group. They do get back Omoruyi, Hyatt, Simpson and Mag who all were key parts to last season and brought in a couple of transfers to try and fill the gaps. Simpson is notable as he’s a young scorer that is poised to take a jump after showing flashes of a high ceiling last year. Fernandes should come right in and be the starting PG, and his shooting ability is going to be critical for a team that was atrocious offensively last year. Williams same idea, he will hopefully provide some scoring as he’ll battle Hyatt for a starting spot. The defense should remain at an elite level, with Omoruyi as an elite shot blocker inside allowing these athletic wings and guards to put a lot of pressure on opposing teams. This style that Pikiell has implemented has been essential in terms of the rise of the program, however it is also what limits the program’s ceiling at this point. Because he recruits strong, athletic guys who can excel defensively, they all enter the program with offensive limitations. He did finally land some shooters in Fernandes and this incoming FR Griffiths, who is a sniper at 6’7″ but he does have some athletic limitations so his ability to defend at the level required will be interesting to watch. They should be able to improve offensively, as the bar is pretty low after a season ranked 151st, but it’s certainly not going to be their strength. Under Piekell they’ve never been higher than 72nd. Their hard-nose defensive style will keep them competitive though, and they should grind out wins against quality opponents, especially at home. I would expect them to be right in the bubble mix and if they stay healthy they likely will get back to the dance.

Ohio St – (#7) (NR)

Last year was as bizarre of a year as you can get for Ohio St, as they started the season 10-3 with wins over decent teams like Texas Tech, Cincy and Rutgers. Then they finished the season 3-15 before going to the Big Ten tournament and winning 3 straight games before falling to Purdue in the Semis. It was a roller coaster, with a ton of youth and injuries up and down the roster as well. Holtmann was able to hold on to several young pieces, with guys like Thornton, Key, Gayle and Okpara back, with all of those except Key (injured) being starters during their Conference tourney run. That core back along with a couple of key transfers and another solid FR class give Holtmann some hope for the future if he can just maintain some stability. The headliner is Jamison Battle (Minnesota) who has been a high volume scorer his entire career and should come in and be a key threat for them offensively. Mahaffey and Bonner are both just role guys not huge impact players but should have roles off the bench. The 3 Freshmen could play big roles, with Chatman being the best of the 3. He is a great shooter that could develop into a 3 level scorer as he is a plus athlete with great handles and poise with the ball, so long term he has a ton of upside and this year he could contribute if he can knock down shots. Devin Royal is a unique prospect, as an undersized big man, he’ll have to develop as a shooter and ball handler to maximize his potential as a small ball 4. He is a strong athlete though so he could find some minutes at the 4 this year. Ultimately it comes down to defense with this program, as they’ve been 82nd, 111th and 106th the last 3 years after being top-25 the first 3 years under Holtmann. They have some pieces back but I don’t think they’ll be as good offensively as in the past, so they have to improve on the other end if they want to be a tourney team this year. I think they can, and they did during the Big Ten tourney last year. I expect them to be on the bubble this year and if the FR are really good they could be dangerous.

Indiana – (#8) (NR)

The first 2 years under Mike Woodson have been okay, at least by the standards IU fans seemingly have year in and year out. They’ve made the dance each year, but 21-19 in the Big Ten and 1-2 in the tourney won’t keep you around long term in Bloomington, so pressure is building. This year the front-court is going to be a strength again, despite the losses of TJD and Race Thompson. They bring in Payton Sparks (Ball St) to run the 5 after and All-MAC season and Malik Reneau is poised to take a step forward at the 4 as a top-50 recruit from a season ago. 7-footer Kel’el Ware (Oregon) was a 5-star recruit as well so the depth inside is outrageous from a talent perspective. Add in this year’s 5-star commit Mackenzie Mgbako and it’s hard to imagine there’s enough minutes for all of these guys. Mgbako is a sure fire lottery pick after 1 year though, and his skillset actually could allow him to play the 3 in a big lineup for the Hoosiers, as he can score at all 3 levels and reminds you of a Keyontae Johnson type of forward, as he’s a powerful athlete but has a ceiling of a Jayson Tatum level scorer at 6’8″. Now, with all of that being said, there’s a lot of question marks in the backcourt, as they return Xavier Johnson and Trey Galloway, who are average at best, and then frankly a bunch of unknowns after that. The two FR look promising as Newton is an elite athlete and Cupps is probably the PG of the future, but neither look like major contributors right away, but they may need them to be, unless returning guys like Gunn and Leal can step up for the first time in their career. In my opinion this IU team isn’t going to be a tourney team, unless Mgbako comes out and is a 15+ ppg guy and carries them like only few Freshmen have. Is that possible? Yes. Probable? No. The guard play is not great, and they’re going to rely on a MAC transfer and a 5-star FR to carry the load inside in a great big man league. I think best case they squeak into the tourney, worst case they are much lower than this in the league.

Northwestern – (#9) (NR)

Chris Collins was on the hot seat a year ago and broke through, getting the Wildcats back to the dance and pulled off some huge wins, including one in the tourney. They bring back most of the core from that team this year, including one of the best guards in the Conference in Boo Buie. They did lose 2nd leading scorer Chase Audige, who is going to be tough to replace, but they did bring in some transfers in Langborg and Mullins who could step in and fill some of that void. The returners Berry and Barnhizer are also poised to take a step forward as well as scorers. Matthew Nicholson is back as the starting 5 and Preston should be a serviceable backup, so the talent is there for them to have another positive season. The thing that gives me confidence, beyond Buie, is that they won with defense a year ago and that is going to keep them competitive despite the loss of Audige. I think the transfers add a lot, and so long as they can be a top-25 defensive team they should be right there on the bubble fighting for a tourney bid again. Now, we said this last time Northwestern had a good season, and they flopped hard, so I’m not ruling that out for a program that has struggled to maintain momentum. Collins has bought himself some time, and another tourney run should lock him in for a few more years, especially if they knock off some big boys again. Ultimately, they’ll go as far as Buie can take them, so he will need to be as good as it gets in the Nation to get these Wildcats back dancing again.

Nebraska – (#10) (NR)

Fred Hoiberg is a guy I’ve been waiting to have a breakthrough after returning to college basketball after a stint in the NBA. Their first 3 seasons under Hoiberg resulted in 9 total Big Ten wins, and last season they won equalled that number, huge step forward. Now, this year they have lost quite a bit from last year’s group but 3 key guys are back in Tominaga, Gary and Wilcher. They ended the year 6-3 and found an identity as a great defensive group. Young freshman Jamarques Lawrence came on strong to end the season as well, scoring double figures in 6 of those final 9 games. What has me confident they can repeat last year’s success, and even take another step forward, is the group of transfers paired with this returning talent. They have brought in 4 double digit scorers from last year, including 3 guys who should makeup the 4 man rotation up front. Mast and Allick are undersized but very good rebounders and can score, and Brice Williams should be able to split time at the 4 with Gary, and could even play a bigger 3. Coleman is 6’5″ but played PG for Ball State last year, and with only Ahron Ulis as the other true PG could fill that role as a starter next to Tominaga in the backcourt. The 3 spot will probably be Wilcher, and that gives them a decent starting 5 if they can continue the level of defense they showed to end last season. The talent isn’t that of a tourney team, but it’s a group that has potential if they can continue to defend and be a little better offensively than last year’s group (149th). I think the Huskers can be pesky this year in the Big 10, and while I don’t think that is going to be good enough to be a bubble player, I do think they knock some teams off and are the best of this not-so-great bottom of the Conference.

Penn St – (#11) (NR)

Mike Rhoades comes to Penn St having to rebuild this entire program after Micah Shrewsberry got them their first tourney win since 2001. Rhoades has amassed 9 transfers to infuse some talent into the program after only 2 guys from last year decided to return. The Nittany Lions are right there with the likes of St. John’s in terms of program turnover, and I am not convinced this is going to be as quick of a rebuild as the Pitino has going. It’s hard to really predict much with this roster, but I can confidently say Ace Baldwin will be the starting PG and Qudus Wahab will start at the 5. That is actually a pretty good 1-2 punch and there’s more than enough talent to fill the 2-4 spots to have a pretty solid lineup for Rhoades in year 1. The question is going to be how he can gel all of these guys and start to establish some sort of culture here, which is difficult in such a fluid situation with guys who are not tied to the school, coach or anything really. I typically am more cynical of teams with a new coach and completely transformed rosters, especially at non-traditional programs. This may be the school with the widest range of possibilities, as their truly is the talent on this team to become a tourney team by February, but I just have a hard time believing it will all gel and translate quick enough to get them in. I think they fall right about here in the Conference and maybe find themselves in the NIT, but it also could be a disaster and see them near the bottom.

Michigan – (#12) (NR)

Juwan Howard got off to a hot start at Michigan but last year was a big step back and now he’s lost his 3 leading scorers who accounted for 46 ppg a season ago. There’s some young talent on this roster, but ultimately I just am not convinced they are going to be any good this year. Dug McDaniel has shown some promise, and we still have one of Howard’s son’s on the roster. Incoming transfer Olivier Nkamhoua is probably the best bet to lead them in scoring after showing flashes with Tennessee. There’s just not a lot to be excited about here, as the one Freshman isn’t major impact year 1 and the transfers are just meh. Howard ultimately whiffed on the recruiting trail, lost Dickinson to the transfer portal and didn’t land any major names in return. I have never been convinced this was a good hire, and although he had some success with the Beilein guys, now that it’s all on him it doesn’t look to be going well. He has the resources and the NBA ties, so there’s really no excuse for Michigan to have this bleak of an outlook, but here we are.

Iowa – (#13) (NR)

I am going to be upfront here, I can’t stand Fran McCaffery and this Iowa program. They always have talent, they can always score with anybody, but they just refuse to play any defense and consistently get bounced from the tourney despite everyone thinking they’re good. Purdue gets all the hate for March failures but McCaffery has been to 11 tourney’s (7 with Iowa) and has yet to make it out of the first weekend, he’s awful. Now, without Kris Murray they enter a season without a clear All-Conference type of guy to carry the load offensively, so I really think this will be the worst year at Iowa in some time. They have won 10+ Conference games 5 straight seasons, but I’m not seeing enough talent here for me to think this is going to go well. Ben Krikke (Valpo) is an interesting get from the transfer portal, as he averaged almost 20 ppg but he’s an undersized big that isn’t a great shooter, so i’m not sure how he’ll translate to Big Ten basketball. They have the Sandfort brothers who can stroke it from 3, and Tony Perkins is a bulldog, but again there’s no big time scorer to make up for their inept defense. I know I can’t be totally unbiased here, but I genuinely just don’t see how this could be anything better than 5 or so Conference wins for the Hawkeyes this year.

Minnesota – (#14) (NR)

The Ben Johnson experiment does not seem to be going well, as Minnesota has just 6 Big Ten wins in 2 years under his watch. I don’t see this year going much better for them, although some of the returners do have some talent. Garcia, Payne and Ola–Joseph all played pretty well a year ago and could improve. They lost a lot of talent though, so it’s just tough to improve when losing guys to the transfer portal and you don’t bring a whole lot in. The FR Cam Christie is a good long term prospect, as he’s a long athlete that is a really good shooter. He could make the all-FR team in the Big Ten so there’s a bright spot. It’s a tough Conference with talent up and down, and Minnesota is far and away the least talented roster and seemingly the worst coached team as well. Not a great recipe for success.