FAU (#10)

Listen if you go 35-4 and return basically everyone from a group that gets to the Final 4 you deserve to be pre-season top-10. Of course they should still be really good, and moving to the AAC beefs up the schedule just a little bit to help them not have to plow through the tourney as a 9 seed again. There’s really nothing I can sprinkle in here as they have nothing incoming or outgoing really, they will be the exact same team that is just looking to run it back. We know who they are, we are just going to find out if they can sustain that level of success. They had a pathetic non-con schedule last year but added games with Arizona and Illinois this year to try and build a better resume this time around. What Dusty May has done is incredible, and gives you Brad Stevens Butler vibes, but he has a long way to go to catch that level of College Basketball lore. The only thing I can see derailing this season is an injury or just a general let down from drinking their own kool-aid.

Gonzaga (#15)

Mark Few is one of the legends in college hoops, we all know that, and what they’ve done in Spokane over the last couple of season’s has been amazing, just falling short of the ultimate goal of a championship but making it to the final game, an Elite 8 and Sweet 16 over a 3 year run is impressive. Now Drew Timme is out and it’s a new era for Few and this program. While I don’t think Gonzaga is going to be bad by any means, I am not convinced this is a roster that’s as talented as we’ve seen over the years. They return a few talented pieces in Anton Watson, Nolan Hickman and Ben Gregg, but none of them have really ever been more than a role player. The transfers are going to have to lead the way, with the obvious huge get being Ryan Nembhard (Creighton), who should come right in and be the starting PG and the key playmaker for them offensively. Next is Graham Ike (Wyoming) as the Timme replacement, who I actually have watched play more than I’d like to admit..I fell for the MW deeply in 2022 and specifically Wyoming with him and Maldonado, so what I know about him is he’s a force on the low block. He’s not much of a jump shooter, but has a crafty game with his back to the basket. What they’ll miss from Timme was the passing, and Ike won’t be as efficient either, especially against the better opponents. The third guys is the Corey Kispert of this year’s bunch and that’s Steele Venters (E. Washington), who loves to hoist up 3’s, but also has some quickness to him and can finish inside. I would imagine you’ll only see that on certain occasions but he fits well if he’s able to knock down shots consistently. That’s the core group of 6, but beyond that it’s going to be a couple of inexperienced guys who will need to step up into reserve roles. It’s hard to predict who will separate themselves within this group but Jun Seok Yeo would be who I’d bet on, as he can really shoot and at 6’8″ would be versatile in being able to play the 3 or 4. Krajnovic is a guy who can play as a bigger PG behind Nembhard, as he is a good passer, but needs to develop athletically before he can really be a force at this level. Stromer looks like a young Venters, loves to hoist shots and has a pretty stroke, so he’ll likely factor in behind Venters. Ultimately the depth is a mystery, and the top-end talent just isn’t what it has been in the past, so I don’t see the Zags as a 1 seed, and really don’t see them as a Final 4 threat, but they’re still going to dominate the WCC. I just think the metrics that have them pre-season top-5 will end up being a bit off the mark.

Saint Mary’s (#21)

The Gaels are in a somewhat similar position as FAU after having a very good season, not Final 4 good, but winning a WCC regular season title and losing in the 2nd round to the eventual National Champs is nothing to hang your head about. They did lose their leading scorer in Logan Johnson, but they return a large core from last year’s group including a trio of Mahaney, Ducas and Saxen that should be able to pick up the slack. The depth around those 3 is going to be tested, but this program under Randy Bennett has proven to be able to develop solid college players. They’ve developed quite an identity over the past several season’s as a dominate defensive team, and after year’s of not ever being even top-25 defensively they’ve been top-15 each of the past 3 years. If they continue to play that well on that end, I see no reason they aren’t battling with Gonzaga at the top of the WCC once again, and should find themselves into a 3rd straight NCAA tourney for the first time under Bennett.

San Diego St

Obviously the Aztecs had a historical run last season, reaching the National title game after winning the Mountain West regular season and tourney as well. It was about as much success as you can ask for in a season short of actually winning it all, and now they enter this year trying to reload after losing 4 key members of last year’s group. What worries me about the losses is 1 the scoring ability that was already weak getting much weaker, and the loss of Mensah inside as a shot blocker. They didn’t really bring in much size to replace him, so it will be interesting to see if they can sustain the level of defense without his presence inside. They do get back a core of guys who were key to their success last year, including Trammell, Butler, LeDee and Parrish who all scored 7+ ppg. The two transfers Dixon-Waters (USC) and Pal (Campbell) should have major roles as well, but they’ll need some guys to step up this year without Bradley/Johnson/Mensah. We know they will play tough, but I’m looking at this roster and could see them struggling inside without Johnson and the aforementioned Mensah. I also could see them struggling much more on offense, and they already weren’t great on that end. I don’t think we are going to see a repeat of last season’s success, but they’re defensive ability could help them be on the bubble come February with a chance to play themselves into the dance again.

Memphis

There is once again going to be a ton of talent for Penny Hardaway to work this season, but it remains a mystery if he’ll ever be able to turn that talent into March success. Last year they had a ton of Seniors and won 26 games, but lost in the 1st round. Now they once again are turning over nearly their entire roster, bringing in 8 transfers and 5 FR to essentially run out an entirely new roster aside from Hardaway and Dandridge. A backcourt of Caleb Mills and Jahvon Quinerly on paper looks excellent, paired with Jordan Brown inside with Jaykwon Walton next to him and you have the makings of a pretty dangerous starting 5. DeAndre Williams is in limbo at this moment as he’s trying to appeal for another year of eligibility, and Mikey Williams the top-50 recruit is in trouble with the law, so there’s some things up in the air with the program. Overall I think it’s going to be pretty similar to last year, they’ll play a fast tempo, not be particularly good defensively but when they get rolling offensively could contend with really good teams. They don’t have Houston to deal with in the AAC anymore, so it’s really them and FAU at the top heading in. I think they’re ceiling is probably on that 8 or 9 line, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them miss out altogether in spite of the talent that’s here. We’ve seen transfer projects go awry, and this could be the makings of another. It’s all going to be about coaching so this is a real test for Hardaway who so far has made 2 of 5 tourney’s with just 1 win.