2023-24 Pre-Season Rankings

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USC – (Conf-#1) (Nat-#14)

For me, USC is going to be must-watch TV right from the get-go this year, as Isaiah Collier is a sure-fire top-5 pick and him paired with Boogie Ellis is going to be electric. Of course, you add in the potential of Bronny James and all that comes with him (if he’s healthy) and Dennis Rodman’s son DJ Rodman (Wazzu) transferring in there’s a mix of talent and star power that could create a Colorado football level circus this year. The difference here is there’s talent for the Trojans to really contend, even outside of Ellis and Collier, as Kobe Johnson is solid and the bigs Morgan and Iwuchukwu are both talented at the 5. Collier is the guy though for me, as he’s a true old school PG that’s probably the best passer in the class, and that ability, paired with his size and physical style will allow him to come right in and be a primary playmaker for this group. That is going to take some pressure off of Boogie and ideally create some easier looks for him. Bronny, even if 100% healthy, isn’t going to start, and will likely just serve as a backup to this elite backcourt he is joining. Rodman should start as a small ball 4 alongside Iwuchukwu/Morgan at the 5. That starting group is really solid, and while the depth may be an issue, I feel this is the most talented roster in the Conference. Many people lean Arizona, and I could see why as I think it’s really close, but I’m going to bet on this backcourt of Ellis and Collier who should both have All-Conference season’s. There’s a ton of pressure here, and it’ll only build if they have early success and both LeBron and Dennis Rodman are involved. How Enfield navigates the circus that will ensue is probably the biggest thing to watch, as we haven’t seen the level of crazy that we’re likely going to see if this team takes off. The talent is there, we’ll see if they can turn it into on-court success, but you’d be a fool to not see they have the potential.

Arizona – (#2) (#17)

The criticism of Arizona under Tommy Lloyd has to be that they’ve been soft over the last 2 years. They have been elite offensively, top-10 each season, but they’ve gotten out toughed each of their last 2 tourney losses. The first, Houston, is understandable, they push everyone around, but getting out-rebounded by Princeton who’s biggest guy was 6’9″ is pretty indefensible. They’re super fun to watch with how fast and wide open they play offensively, and I get that, but when March comes around and you have to win an ugly game, they’ve been unable to grind it out 2 years in a row. They added a guy in Caleb Love (UNC) that fits the bill, no defense and loves to jack up shots, so while it looks shiny and fun I’m not sure who will impact who the most. Does Love come in and benefit from Arizona’s efficient offense or does his erratic nature hurt their efficiency? Outside of him they get Ballo back inside who’s a beast and Larsson is back as well as a shooter on the perimeter. Keshad Johnson is a very good addition, as he brings toughness with him from San Diego St that they have been desperately needing. Boswell and Bradley are two young guards who have potential but haven’t quite filled into it yet, but are in an ideal spot for guards. The international bigs that they’ve brought in are kind of the wildcards that are tough to predict, because the group I’ve outlined is good but if one of these kids pop it could elevate them higher than I’m predicting. Murauskas and Krivas the FR both are very skilled and could have an impact if they can hang athletically, and Veesar was ranked top-50 in last year’s class. Just the combo of Love/Ballo/Larsson is less scary to me than the USC backcourt, but again I would not be shocked if Arizona actually wins the Pac-12. What always worries me about this style of play is defense, so how guys like Love and these young Euro bigs hang defensively could define their ceiling. Top-20 to top-10 seems like where they’ll be all year long, but March success is still what Lloyd is chasing in year 3 at Arizona.

Oregon – (#3) (NR)

Dana Altman has had a pretty solid run at Oregon, but last year made it back-to-back season’s missing the NCAA tourney for the first time since his first 2 season’s at the school. He’s made 5 Sweet 16’s and a Final 4, so he has some leash here given his success. They have brought back a core of guys with a ton of talent in Dante, Couisnard, Barthelemy and Bittle, who all missed games at different times a year ago and if healthy could take major steps forward. They also brought in 2 guards that can really score in Oquendo and Zarzuela, as well as athletic big Diarra who could backup at the 5. That group of 7 should be solid even just on their own, but the group of 3 top-50 Freshman could truly make them contenders in the Conference. The group is led by 5-star PF Kwame Evans Jr, who gives you Jaren Jackson Jr vibes, as his length and athleticism make him a problem defensively but he can also stretch out and shoot the rock, so he could come right in and start at the 4. Mookie Cook should also find some minutes at the 3/4 spots, as he has some De’Andre Hunter in his game as he’s physical kid that can also stretch out and hit jumpers. Shelstad figures to be a very good player at Oregon, but with the veteran guards he will likely only have a reserve role this year, but he can really score so if he comes in playing well early he could even start and either way should be a stud down the road. Overall this is as much a bet on the talent that is on this roster as it is a bet on Dana Altman to bring this group together. Admittedly it’s a drop off from the top-2 to Oregon and the next few teams, but they should be battling for a spot in the 7-10 seed range in the tourney if these FR can come in and have an impact.

Colorado – (#4) (NR)

The Buffs enter this year with a ton of promise with a solid returning group and a blue chip Freshman that could be what pushes them into contention. They get back two guys who broke out last year in KJ Simpson and Tristan Da Silva, both averaging over 15 ppg and looking like they can come back and be the leaders for them this year. Tad Boyle has always had competitive teams here at Colorado, with the last 5 teams being top-50 defensively despite struggling to score. If they can continue to play that level of defense I think they can improve a lot offensively. The main reason is the addition of 5-star Freshman Cody Williams. Williams is a 6’8″ wing with a ton of potential due to his length and athleticism, and he should come right in and be a great and versatile defender. Offensively he still has to develop as a shot maker, but his size will still allow him to put up 8-12 ppg and be a contributor at the 3 or 4 depending on how they construct their lineup. Part of that flexibility is going to be a major help for Boyle, as he can play transfer Lampkin at the 5 with Da Silva and Williams at the forwards, or he can go small with Da Silva at the 5 and Williams at the 4. That versatility with the 4 other guards Hadley, Hammond, Ruffin and O’Brien returning and you see why people are excited about this roster. That is a solid group of 8 that should be the primary contributors for this team, and I think they should be a tourney team in the same range as Oregon in that 7-10 range. They have to improve on their shoddy 128th ranking offensively, and I believe they will with some growth from this young returning core and the addition of Williams. The Buffs are actually going to be must-watch in my opinion, as a top-5 recruit has to get your attention and they should be dancing again after missing the last 2 tourneys.

UCLA – (#5) (NR)

This is a very hard prediction to make as Cronin is having to rebuild this year after several fantastic season’s in a row with the a lot of the same guys who are now gone. A few younger guys are back in Adem Bona, Dylan Andrews and Will McClendon who are all former top-50 recruits and add to what will be a massive group of inexperienced but highly touted players. They bring in 7 top-100 recruits, including 3 more top-50, many of which are international recruits. At the top of the group sits 7’3″ spaniard Aday Mara, who comes to the Bruins with a ton of upside due to his size, athleticism and skill set at this age. Although he doesn’t show too much of a back to the basket game he is a very good passer for his size and has good feet inside as he plays in control and finishes strong at the rim. He isn’t going to be like Zach Edey right away, as a dominant back to the basket big, but he can immediately come in and rebound and block shots and is lethal as a roll man on ball screens. Joining him in the front-court is Berke Buyuktuncel out of Turkey, who is much more of a stretch big as he can knock down shots with a nice lefty jumper, is a good passer and can play in the low post. He’s not very athletic by most standards, but his skill set is going to allow him to be an immediate contributor. Guard Ilane Fiblueil from France figures to have a role as well, as he’s a very good athlete is at his best when attacking downhill and out in transition. He is a plus defender, which is perfect for Cronin, and is also a willing and gifted passer. His jumper has a ways to go but shows promise. Sebastian Mack will also have a shot to carve out a role, as he’s a physical guard that is a gifted scorer. He has a good looking shot from the outside and attacks the basket with physicality which allows him to finish through contact. Jan Vide out of Hungary is very similar to Mack in that he is a gifted scorer, but has a much different game in the sense that he has to be much more crafty in how he gets to his spots and that has allowed him to develop quite a skillset. Brandon Williams is likely the last of the Freshman who have a shot at PT, as he could fill a backup 4 role, as he’s a bigger guy that can stretch the floor. Unless they play two C’s they will need freshman to play the 4 spot entirely. It is impossible to really know how Cronin is going to deploy this young group, but you look at it and you have 6 guys to play the 1-3 spots in Stefanovic, McClendon, Andrews, Fiblueil, Mack and Vide and then the bigs inside in Bona, Mara, Buyuktuncel, Nwuba and Williams. That’s 11 guys, so most likely not all of them are going to have major roles, but it’s hard to tell who will miss out. One thing we do know is Cronin will demand defense, so the guys who can come in and defend the best will have the best shot at PT, but if the European FR can hang on that end, they could really be a fun watch with the skillsets they bring with them. They have the ceiling to be a tourney team, but I won’t be shocked if they struggle early with all of this youth.

Washington – (#6) (NR)

Aside from 2019, Mike Hopkins’ time at Washington has been rather disappointing, with just the 1 tourney appearance that year and 3 straight sub-100 seasons per Kenpom. This year looks to be a big improvement, at least on paper, as there’s a ton of talent heading to Seattle. With Keion Brooks back, along with Franck Kepnang and Braxton Meah at the 5 and Johnson in the backcourt, they have a solid core coming back, but it’s the transfers that should catapult this program. Sahvir Wheeler comes in to run the point, and he’s one of the best pure PG’s in the country. They also get elite scorer Nate Calmese to play alongside Wheeler, along with junkyard dog Paul Mulcahy to play the 3. Moses Wood also figures to play into that lineup, as he’s an elite shooter and could slide into the 4 spot and move Brooks to the 3 over Mulcahy. Either way, that top group of 8 should be the main group and they collectively have the talent to be a tourney team. You also should see Wesley Yates factor into the backcourt, as he’s a very gifted athlete and can really score. He may not breakthrough this year but figures to be a very good player at this level and could have some moments in a reserve role this season. All in all the talent is here for this group to finish even higher than this, but it’s hard to have confidence in Hopkins to maximize all of this talent. Give this roster to Mick Cronin and I’d have them pre-season top-25. Could they become a top-25 team? I really think so, but I have my reservations about Hopkins. Either way, I’m excited to see what all of this talent can do, especially with guys like Brooks, Wheeler and Mulcahy who have all been at major Conference schools.

Utah – (#7) (NR)

Craig Smith is starting to build something at Utah it seems, as took a big jump from year 1 to year 2 and have a solid core back from that group that went 10-10 in the Pac-12. He transformed them into a top-40 defense and they actually had a shot at being a tourney team until they lost their last 6 games after losing some guys to injury. The starting backcourt of Madsen and Worster is back and should be solid, but they’ll be led by Branden Carlson. The 7 footer has been All-Conference the last 2 years and should be once again. What they need is incoming transfers Cole Bejema and Deivon Smith to add some scoring, as they lost Stefanovic and were just 129th offensively last year, shooting 33% from 3 which was good for 204th in the Nation. Lovering is just going to back-up Carlson but that was something they were missing last year as they had to play small whenever Carlson was out of the game. If they can develop some of these young guys and continue to play really well defensively, there’s a shot they can be in the bubble conversation come February. They certainly aren’t going to win the Conference, but similar to last year they will be a threat to knock some of the top dogs off, like when they beat Arizona last year. They should beat up on the bad teams, and will just need to pick up a couple of Q1 wins to get themselves into that bubble conversation. If they can get in it will be the first time since 2016 during the Jakob Poeltl/Kyle Kuzma days, so Smith has a chance to accomplish something big for this program.

Arizona St – (#8) (NR)

Arizona St under Bobby Hurley has been anything but stable, as they’ve been transfer U over the last few year’s and have had up and down levels of success, without truly accomplishing much. They have made the tourney 3 times out of 7 opportunities and are 0-3 in tourney games. This year is more of the same in the turnover department, as only 3 guys return with 7 transfers incoming. The lone returner that excites you is Frankie Collins and he’ll be the starting PG and the unquestioned leader at the point. Alongside him should be Adam Miller, so long as he’s eligible after a 2nd transfer, or Brycen Long who comes in as an elite shooter that could also start at the 2 or serve as a backup PG. Jose Perez also should have a shot at starting as he’s been a high volume scorer in his past and at 6’5″ could play the 2 or 3. Selebangue should be the 5, with Lands and Meeks splitting the 4 in some fashion with Gaffney figuring in there somewhere as well. Neal is a factor to get minutes at the 3 and lastly you have the 7 footer Phillips who should be the backup 5. There’s a ton of talent with this group, but how will it come together. This is one of those AAU teams as I call them, as it’s this random assortment of guys just getting thrown together from schools all across the country much like the summer circuits at the high school level. The good news is these guys are used to playing that way, what gives me pause is the lack of success that we’ve seen under Hurley, as there really hasn’t been an identity established, and how could you with this revolving door. I expect them to have moments, and maybe scrap their way into the bubble conversation, but no more than that.

Stanford – (#9) (NR)

Stanford had a couple of good years with the Lopez brothers back in the mid-2000’s, but since then it has been an anemic program. They’ve made just one tourney since ’08 and have had 1 season above .500 in the Pac-12 in HC Jerod Hasse’s 7 years. While they do have a lot of returning talent, which usually bodes well, I just do not have any confidence in Hasse and the culture he has established, or lack-thereof. They were the 2nd worst team defensively in the Pac-12, 157th in the Nation, so a continuation of that is only going to keep them in the bottom half of the Conference. They did bring in Jared Bynum to be their starting PG which should help them continue to be a top-40 offensive team. The other guy that should come in and be impactful is FR Andrej Stojakovic, who is the son of NBA All-Star Peja Stojakovic and shocker, is a lights out shooter a la his father. He’s not an explosive athlete but has good size and is just a sniper, so he should come in and get PT and knock down shots. Ultimately they should once again be an elite team scoring the basketball, but if they can’t defend they’re not going to accomplish much, and that’s what I expect. If you look up in January or February and Stanford is a player in this Conference it’s because they improved dramatically on D, we’ll see what happens.

Oregon St – (#10) (NR)

Wayne Tinkle took Oregon St on a magical run to the Elite 8 in 2021, but since then they have gone 6-34 in the Pac-12, so I would think the seat is starting to warm at least a little. The good news is they lead the Nation in lowest amount of turnover, with only 1 transfer out of the program and an entire roster of returning players aside from 1 Freshman. Now, the bad news is all of those returners were collectively awful a year ago, but you would think that a locker room that goes through that kind of misery and sticks together is going to at least take a step forward, if not a leap forward. Tinkle has had success in the past, as I mentioned, and while I don’t expect this group to be a tourney team I definitely expect them to play much better basketball this season. All that said, they won’t be dancing, but maybe they can get to 7 or 8 wins in Conference.

Cal – (#11) (NR)

Cal has been the laughing stock of the Pac-12, so maybe for them the destruction of the Conference is a good thing. However, we’ll focus on the positive here, as it’s a fresh start with Mark Madsen coming to try and revitalize the program after building Utah Valley into a tourney team. Of all of the year 1 coaches out there Madsen may have the most talent on paper to work with, as he gets former 5-star recruit Devin Askew back and also grabbed 4 transfers who all averaged double figures scoring. Jalen Cone should run the point alongside Askew in the backcourt forming a pretty talented backcourt. Aimaq should start at the 5 with Jaylon Tyson and Grant Newell at the 3 and 4. That is actually a pretty talented starting 5, again, on paper. Do I think all of these journeyman guys can come together and actually contend? Probably not, but similar to Arizona St they have the paper talent that you could convince me they flirt with the bubble at times this year. Madsen can clearly coach, but it’s asking alot for him to come in and gel a hodge podge team and turn them around that drastically. I would expect them to be better, but not quite good enough to actually matter.

Washington St – (#12) (NR)

Wazzu, not exactly a program with a rich history, but they have had some momentum over the last couple of years winning 11 Conference games 2 years in a row. However, Kyle Smith enters year 5 losing 8 guys from last year’s group and nothing that really excites you enough to think they can be good again this year. Isaac Jones is an elite scorer and Yesufu has had his moments when he was a Drake, but it’s not nearly enough to replace the likes of Gueye, Powell, Bamba and Rodman. I don’t expect to think much about this team beyond writing this little preview, which is unfortunate for a team that is likely bound for the Mountain West. Unfortunate, but Wazzu appears to be dead.