2023-24 Pre-Season Rankings

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Tennessee – (Conf-#1) (Nat-#6)

Tennessee under Barnes the last 3 years have had a clear identity, as they drag their opponents into a rock fight with physicality and toughness that is really only matched by Houston on the National level. The issue they’ve had is they just can’t score the basketball, and while they have been able to ride their defense to a 5, 3, and 4 seed over the last 3 season’s they have just a 3-3 record in the dance. Barnes addressed that issue in the off-season, going and getting 2 elite scorer’s via the transfer portal, most notably Dalton Knecht. Knecht is essentially Sam Dekker re-incarnate, and maybe even better, as he can score at all 3 levels and rebounds well as a small ball 4. How he can hang defensively will be huge, but I see this addition as an admission from Barnes that some physicality can be forfeited for a guy who can consistently score. He should join a strong returning starting lineup with Zeigler (once he’s healthy), Vescovi, James and Aidoo, so at the top the physical culture should remain, but ideally with a little more punch offensively. They also brought in Jordan Gainey who is a great shooter, at 41% for his career and was an All-Big South selection twice. He probably won’t start when Zeigler is back, but should serve as a significant piece off the bench. Throw in Mashack and Awaka inside and that group of 8 is as solid as it gets. The Vols don’t have the star power or the flashy 5-star recruits, but what we know about them is they are going to be the more physical team every night, and that’s worth a ton in college basketball. They are much like Houston in my mind, where as ugly as the games may look at times, they just keep winning. Now, they’ve added some guys who can really score, so if those new guys can hang defensively and fit in with the culture, Tennessee could do a lot more damage in March.

Arkansas – (#2) (#12)

Arkansas is one of the tougher rosters to predict in terms of how Musselman is going to construct it, as there’s talented guys 2 deep at every position. You have El Ellis probably the leader to run the point, and with Menifield ineligible, FR Layden Blocker, who reminds me of former Razorback JD Notae, should be a factor as well. At the 2 and 3 you have Devo Davis back after several good season’s and he’ll be joined in some order by Tramon Mark (Houston) and Khalif Battle (Temple) who have both been high level scorers, especially Battle who was just shy of 18 ppg last season. Jeremiah Davenport (Cincy) should also figure into the 3 spot, especially if they need more size in certain matchups as he’s 6’7″ but he could also serve as a small ball 4. However, the 4 and 5 spots are loaded, with Harris (So Miss) and Lawson (Memphis) transferring in to join a group that already has Trevon Brazile back, likely the starting 4 alongside returning big Makhi Mitchell at the 5 and Jalen Graham as well, who is a guy with a ton of promise as he’s a gifted athlete. All of that doesn’t include top-30 ranked Baye Fall, who enters as an extremely gifted athlete, and at 6’10” his potential is through the roof. He’s already an elite shot blocker and his athleticism allows him to run the floor well and finish above the rim. He needs to develop his skillset offensively and his frame needs to build out, but he will certainly get some run at the 5 due to his defensive abilities and skills as a roll man on offense. What should stand out to you is that I just named 12 guys, which is obviously far more than can be in a regular rotation for Muss. I’m not going to try and predict exactly which guys find themselves on the outside looking in, but when you enter a season with this much talent there’s obviously tremendous potential, especially when you have a HC like Muss who has proven to be able to construct a roster out of transfers in the past. As a HC he has gone to 6 tourney’s in 7 opportunities, and 4 of those he got out of the 1st weekend with 2 trips to the Elite 8. He’s quietly one of the best March coaches we have in the game, and with this much talent it’s hard to imagine they aren’t a factor. A ranking of 12 nationally might be a bit high, as it’s unlikely they play that well right out of the gates, but come January and February this group should be very dangerous. And hey, maybe they do click early and they have a special season. Either way, the sport is about what happens in March, and Muss is as trustworthy as anyone to maximize this roster and win games in March.

Texas A&M – (#3) (#16)

I’m going to be upfront with my love of Buzz Williams and fully admit it may influence this prediction, but I really think this program flipped a switch last season and is poised for a fantastic year this year. They started 6-5 last year with losses to Wofford and Murray St, who were both sub-200 teams. After that they went 19-5, losing only to Kentucky, Arkansas and Miss St on the road and then Bama and a white hot Penn St team in the post-season. They started defending at a much higher clip, and leaned into Wade Taylor IV and Radford in the backcourt to lead them offensively. Both of those guys are back to lead them, as is the frontcourt duo of Julius Marble and Henry Coleman III who were each high recruits to Michigan St and Duke respectively. The lone starter they lost was Dexter Dennis, but they hit the transfer portal for replacements, with both Eli Lawrence and Jace Carter sure to be in the fold, but Carter should be the starter, as he’s a physical guard that can really score and could have a breakout year. They also have 4 other guys returning who played reserve roles a year ago so this is a deep roster, with guys like Manny Obaseki and Solomon Washington who were good recruits coming off the bench. If what happened the back half of last season is real, then this should be one of the best teams in the Country right out of the gates. What they don’t have is the ceiling of some of these other schools with top end talent, but Wade Taylor is a guy who can carry this group to a serious run in March. I love Buzz, I love this roster and despite their lack of star power I think they have as good a chance as anyone to compete at the top of the SEC and go on a run.

Mississippi St – (#4) (#20)

Chris Jans is an elite HC that nobody is really talking about, but this Mississippi St program is in fantastic hands. Last year was super impressive, as he transformed them into a top-10 defense, they just couldn’t score. They get a majority of their production back, they just have to get to January without Tolu Smith. Once he comes back they’ll be a top-20 team, and that’s why I have them ranked here, as most of the SEC season he should be available. The other thing is they addressed the offensive deficiencies by getting one of the best PG’s at the mid-major level last year in Andrew Taylor (Marshall). They also added the best scorer at the JUCO level in Lerenzo Fort III, who shot a ridiculous 45% from 3 a year ago, and one thing we know is shooting translates. Those two should make them so much better this year, having two guys that can shoot it so well, paired with the physical wings Matthews and Jeffries, along with Smith at the 5 should make them much better offensively. If they can sustain their physicality and defensive efficiency then they can actually be a dangerous team in this Conference. They were debilitated by their inability to knock down shots, shooting just 26.6% from 3, good for 363rd in the Nation, which makes them literally the worst shooting team in the Country. We’ll likely see a lot of Jimmy Bell Jr until Tolu comes back, and once he does that gives them a great 1-2 combo at the 5. Jaquon Scott should also get a lot of minutes early in the season, and returners Shakeel Moore and DaShawn Davis should serve as reserves in the backcourt. Ultimately they should continue to be an elite defensive team, so they will go as far as the new guards will take them, and that should be much better than the 176th offensive ranking they were a year ago.

Kentucky – (#5) (#24)

Cal is back to his old ways with giant Freshman classes after trying to lean on the transfer portal the last couple of years. It’s impossible to predict how this team will look until we dive into this class, so let’s get to it. The first of the 3 top-10 recruits is Justin Edwards, and to put it simply this is RJ Barrett, a lefty wing with length and bounce that can score at every level. Next up is 7-footer Aaron Bradshaw who is an insanely athletic kid for a 7-footer that is already an elite shot blocker, finishes well at the rim and has a jumper that will have NBA execs salivating. His potential is through the roof but he does already have the skills to have an impactful season with Kentucky. The final of the sure-fire lottery picks is DJ Wagner, who is an absolute dog. He is a strong athlete that plays the game with a moxie and ferocity that you want from a lead guard. He has a good jumper but is most effective getting downhill where he can finish through contact and has a variety of tools in his bag to get to the rim and finish. He is the guy that I would expect to be leading this offense. Next we’re looking at Robert Dillingham, who is a smaller guard that will likely be coming off the bench behind Wagner and vet Antonio Reeves in the backcourt. He is a guy that you can see the potential as a scorer and he makes some flashy plays but he needs to develop physically as you can see potential issues with him defensively due to his frame. Reed Sheppard will also be a factor in the backcourt, as this kid is a sniper with deep range already. He will be the worst athlete on the roster, which given the guys on this team isn’t that big of an insult, but if he is going to knock down shots they may need him to be a spark at times. The last of this incoming group that should be a factor is Croatian big man Zvonimir Ivisic. Ivisic is kind of the yin to Bradshaw’s yang as he has almost the polar opposite skillset at this stage while also being 7 ft plus. He is a gifted passer out of the post, finishes well at the rim and can stretch out to 3. He’s not as good of an athlete but all things considered is still a good athlete for his size, and at 7’2″ is obviously a shot blocking presence. So, with all of that being said I guess the lineup to be Wagner, Reeves, Edwards, Tre Mitchell and Bradshaw 1-5 but with all this talent it could change often. In this scenario they’d have Sheppard and Dillingham as well as returner Thiero on the bench. All in all it’s an extremely athletic group, so if Cal can get them to play together and play hard they could be tough defensively as they have two athletic 7-footers who can block shots inside, so they can ramp up the pressure on the perimeter. I have no idea how they will look offensively, but with 4 starters who can shoot and some shot makers coming in they shouldn’t struggle that bad. It could be rough early, but the potential with this team could be the highest it’s been in some time. Kentucky fans have to be getting antsy as they haven’t been past the 1st weekend since 2019 and haven’t been to the final 4 since the 38-1, 2015 season. There’s a lot of ifs, but I won’t be shocked if by March Kentucky is the 4 seed I’m picking to go on a deep run.

Alabama – (#6) (NR)

I do want to say from the jump I love the way Nate Oats sees the game of basketball and as long as I’ve been putting my thoughts out there on college hoops I’ve been beating the Oats drum. Layups and 3’s , fast-paced offense, if you’re open shoot it, and when we go to the other end it’s high pressure and you better be defending. Last year and 2021 they were top-5 defensively while playing at a top-10 tempo, that combo is unmatched in the college game and something I can remember hearing people say was impossible. “You can’t play fast and defend at an elite level”. “Quick shots lead to easy offense the other way.” Nate Oats says nah, we’re gonna play fast and defend at a high level and that’s what they’ve done and I love it. Now that I’ve gotten that off my chest we can look at why I have them lower than most pre-season. First off they lost a ridiculous amount of talent and frankly they just didn’t bring in as much as they lost. Yes Mark Sears is back, and the transfer guards Estrada (Hofstra) and Wrightsell (CSFU) were spectacular at the mid-major level, but the top end NBA talent is no longer here. Estrada is really good attacking the rim which is great for Oates, and Wrightsell is a good complement as he’s more of a set shooter than a playmaker. What worries me is your starting backcourt is 6’1″, 6’3″ and 6’4″ and then at PF you have Grant Nelson (NDSU) who is not the most athletic guy as he’s more of a pick and pop or back to the basket scorer. He had good rebound numbers but I’m worried how he’ll hold up in what is a very physical league. At the 5 is going to be some combination of young guys with FR Jarin Stevenson potentially leading the way. He has some Noah Clowney in him with the length and athleticism, but he’s not quite as good offensively and needs to beef up his wiry frame. Transfer Mohamed Wague may get the nod just because he’s physically more developed and still is athletic enough to run the floor and can block shots wchich is essential for a big under Oates. Nick Pringle is also back and he should factor in somewhere as he’s very athletic, and Rylan Griffin should be the primary guard off the bench. That’s their 8 really, with the rest of the roster being lower recruits that need time to develop. I look at this roster and it reminds me a lot of the 2022 Bama team that was 19-14 and lost round 1 as a 9 seed. They played 3 guards under 6’4″ and had a very unproven and ultimately not very talented front court. They were 92nd defensively and one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the Country, and that was their undoing. I see a very similar fate for this Tide group, so while the computers have Bama top-15 or even as high as 10th (Kenpom) I doubt this is a true top-25 team and they’ll likely be on the bubble come February. Still love Oats, he just has a huge challenge ahead of him.

Auburn – (#7) (NR)

I’m not sure how I feel about this Auburn group this year, as they really struggled to score consistently last year and lost 2 of their better scorers in Green and Flanigan. Bruce Pearl can obviously coach, and he likes to play a fast paced wide-open offense that until last year had been pretty efficient. What I’m not seeing here are the playmakers, and maybe it’ll come from the JUCO guys, but really only Denver Jones (FIU) looks like he could be that guy. He’ll have to be, as he’s a score from anywhere type of G, and with guys like KD Johnson and Tre Donaldson joining him in the backcourt as guys who haven’t proven to be consistent scorers they will need him to do some heavy lifting. The other newcomer that could make some noise in the backcourt is FR Aden Holloway, who is a score first point guard that is a bit undersized, but Auburn fans are familiar with that. The best chance Auburn has at being contenders is those two guards Jones and Holloway come in and fit perfectly, as we know what we’re getting from the frontcourt. Broome and Williams at the 4/5 is solid, and the JUCO transfer Baker-Mazara shot an absurd 47% from 3. The fact he’s 6’7″ and only got 3 rpg is a little concerning but you know he can shoot and that could really help this group. Ultimately, I’m not seeing a much different result from last year when they were a 9 seed and 10-8 in Conference. Not as good as the elite teams but good enough to be in the dance. There’s also a chance the backcourt struggles and they don’t even get in. I love Pearl, but he’s had much more talented rosters here in the past.

Ole Miss – (#8) (NR)

This prediction is essentially a bet on Chris Beard, as he’s the best young HC in the country with his worst Kenpom team being his one season at Arkansas LR at 56th. That coaching ability paired with the talent that he’s brought in has me seeing them as the surprise team of the season. He was able to bring back Murrell and Brakefield, who could start at the 2 and 4 spots respectively. The point is likely to be handled by transfer Jaylen Murray (St. Peter’s), who’s more of a score first point but has the handle and quickness to develop into a playmaker as well. Joining Murray and Murrell is probably the best of the group in Brandon Murray (G’Town), who was a top-100 recruit and is an absolute dog. He’s perfect for Chris Beard, as his physicality should be a tone setter for this group if everything goes well. Moussa Cisse (Oklahoma St) could start at the 5 but they have another center in Jamarion Sharp (WKU) who is 7’5″ so he’ll certainly be a factor with that size and his athleticism. In reserve roles Caldwell and Nunez (Arizona St) should both factor into the backcourt and Flanigan (Auburn) should be the primary guy rotating in at the 3/4 so he’ll get a lot of PT as a former double digit scorer. Those are the 9 guys that should be the primary guys, but that’s assuming Murray and Cisse get cleared as 2-time transfers, if not things will look much more bleak. Assuming they will, because they should, then they will be stout defensively, as you don’t stay on the floor for Chris Beard if you’re not playing defense, it’s the other end of the floor that’ll be in question. Their weakness will probably be perimeter shooting, but they’ll have the athleticism to be able to attack the rim and be tough to keep off the glass. I’m not expecting any trophies, but I do think this could be a surprise tourney team as most have them outside the top-50 pre-season.

Florida – (#9) (NR)

Year 1 for the Gators under Todd Golden was pretty meh, really just a continuation of what was happening in the prior regime. Maybe the best news is that most of the group from the last few years has left town, so with some fresh blood this could be how they take a step forward. They have brought in a nice crop of transfers, mixed with a couple of young returners and you can see a world where they have some success. The big time transfers are likely going to be the starting backcourt with Zyon Pullin (UC Riverside) and Walter Clayton Jr (Iona) both being All-Conference as elite scorers last season. Clayton is a true 3 level scorer that shot a ridiculous 43% from 3, while Pullin is much better attacking the rim, but still shot 39% from 3 on low volume. I highlight those 3 point numbers because Florida was horrendous shooting the ball last year, 313th in the Country, so adding guys who can shoot this well is going to be a massive upgrade. Speaking of shooting, the 2 guards who are returning were the only guys who shot over 33% from last year in Will Richard and Riley Kugel, who shot 40% and 37% respectively. All of that suggests they should be wildly better shooting the basketball this year, and without the go-to big man Collin Castleton they should look drastically different stylistically as well. They did bring in Tyrese Samuel (Seton Hall) and Micah Handlogten (Marshall) to play the 4-5 spots which should form a solid duo. Handlogten is nothing more than a finisher at the rim, but he’ll be an important shot blocking presence and rebounder. Samuel is much more of a threat offensively, but with both of these guys inside they should be a good rebounding team. The lack of confidence to put this group higher up is the fall off after that top-6. Rishwain (San Fran) will certainly get some PT but after that it’s Aberdeen and Szymczyk, who barely played last year, and a couple of 3-star Freshmen. I would expect that starting 5 is going to all play 30+ minutes, and if they play to their abilities they will be a tough team. They could hang around the bubble and squeak their way in if everything goes well, but ultimately I don’t think the depth is enough to keep them in the hunt all year. Golden is a good coach, and they should improve drastically on their 139th offensive ranking from a season ago, but I don’t quite think they’re contenders just yet.

Mizzou – (#10) (NR)

So last year was a pleasant surprise for Mizzou, as Dennis Gates came in to the program and transformed how they play, as they opened things up and shot a ton of threes. They played zero defense, but had the horses to outrun and outscore teams well enough to get into the dance and win a tourney game. Entering this year is a little more concerning though after watching how Gates seemingly wants to play, as they lost their 3 leading scorers in Brown, Gholston and Hodge, who were also their best 3 point shooters aside from Nick Honor. Honor is back, but everyone else returning really struggled from outside, which is bad news for a team that almost half their shots were from 3. They brought in 5 transfers, 3 of which were decent shooters in Caleb Grill, Tamar Bates and John Tonje. Those 3 guys will need to play a major role, and outside of Tonje that is asking guys who were role players to really step up. Noah Carter is back which helps them on the wings, and Sean East II could be a candidate to take a step forward, although he shot just 22% from 3. 7-footer Connor Vanover should be the 5 and Jesus Carralero probably starts at the 4 unless they play small with Honor there. All of this said, I can’t buy into a team that was so pathetically bad defensively. Live by the 3 die by the 3 is not going to yield much success, and that was them a year ago. You turn in a 180th ranking defensively and expect much better than what happened a year ago. If they continue to be that horrific on that end, I see it ending much worse this season for them, as the replacements for their 3 leading scorers don’t carry as much punch. I do not expect to see the Missouri Tigers dancing again this year.

Georgia – (#11) (NR)

The Mike White era got off to an okay start actually when you consider how low the program was prior to him arriving. They improved from 1 SEC win to 6, which is pretty impressive, but all of the turnover has to be a little disheartening. They get back a couple of guys in Hill, Abdur-Rahim and Moncrieffe but it’ll have to be the transfers that carry the load for them. Thomasson (Niagara) should be the leader offensively, as he’s a true 3 level scorer and by far the best option to be able to create offensively. Tchewa (USF) and Deloach (VCU) in the frontcourt is nice, not elite by any means but they were good players at their previous spots. If you’re a Georgia fan, you probably don’t care about basketball, but in the case that you do what you’re hoping for is these 3 top-80 recruits can stick around and develop into good players. That’s a great sign for the program to get 3 high quality recruits, and if White can continue to build and develop around that group, the future could look bright. The key for White is to be able to hold on to these freshmen and develop them and then you can use the transfer portal to supplement. That has to be the hope, and this class has some promise so the future is looking pretty good.

LSU – (#12) (NR)

This LSU program is in rough shape right now, and while I think Matt McMahon is a good coach he may be in a bit over his head. There’s obviously a ton of talent coming to Baton Rouge this year but that was also true a year ago. Look at the group of departed guys, there are a lot of talented players exiting that together were the 151st ranked team per KP last year. So, now we’re looking at another near complete roster turnover with more talent coming in but can we have any confidence it will lead to anything resembling success? Maybe it will, but it’s nearly impossible to say yes, this is the program with 6 transfers coming in that is going to put it all together. They jumped all the way to 47th in KP pre-season, maybe some addition by subtraction? Or it’s a repeat of last year when they started 41st only to finish 151st. I’d bet on the latter.

South Carolina – (#13) (NR)

The Lamont Paris era got off to a rough start, and who could really be surprised? You get rid of a guy like Frank Martin and bring in a guy who had one decent year at the mid-major level and then you go 11-21, who could’ve seen that coming? He was at least able to avoid the entire roster transferring out, but what he brings back outside of Meechie Johnson doesn’t excite you too much. Mack (Wofford) and Clark (Citadel) were good scoring frontcourt players, but they don’t have much size and the guard play is unproven outside of Johnson, who has been inefficient throughout his career. Unfortunately I don’t think Paris is going to be here in the long term who knows I could be wrong. What I do expect is the Gamecocks to once again be a punching bag in this Conference and long term it’s probably going to be a coaching carousel until they can find the guy. And when you have the guy you know you have the guy, it’s not Paris.

Vandy – (#14) (NR)

Jerry Stackhouse enters year 5 with no real results that he can hang his hat on thus far. He has lost a lot of his talent from last year’s group that was probably his best, so I see and pretty big step back happening. Lawrence and Majon being back is nice as they scored double figures, but there’s not a lot of proven depth and the lack of size in this Conference is going to be a huge problem. The recruiting class is going to need time to develop, which is surprising from a guy who has so many NBA ties, you would think he’d be landing big time recruits. And sure you could use the academic standards as an excuse, but schools like Virginia and Duke face the same issues and find a way. I don’t think Stackhouse is going to be here much longer, and this year could get ugly and be the nail in the coffin.