2024 CBB Contender Series 1.0

/ Kolton McKinnies

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 8 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

  1. Houston: (12-0) Off (16) Def (1) – FLYER
    • Once again, we find a Kelvin Sampson led Houston team as the statistical darlings of the first 2 months of the season. What is happening with this iteration of the Cougars is especially noteworthy though, as their defensive rating would be the best by any team since 2019 Texas Tech, who lost to Virginia in the National Championship. Where they dominate is the same as it has been for years under Sampson, with stifling defense and a relentless attack of the offensive glass. For a team that has nobody over 6’8” the way they can dominate the boards is unlike anything I’ve seen in college hoops. It’s a team mentality, a 5 man war that if you’re not ready for you’re going to get smushed. They also have one of the better guard duos in LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead, but the emergence of Emanuel Sharp has been the surprise of the season and if he can continue to be that 3rd offensive option Houston can be a real threat. That’s the real question for this Houston team, can they consistently be good enough offensively, to go on a run. That 16th ranking is what’s keeping them from the impenetrable category. The struggles have been from the FT line, shooting only 66% and from inside the 3-point line, where they’re shooting just 49%, good for 212th in the Country. Last year they were 73% from the line and 53% from 2. Those numbers are going to be the numbers to watch, as they assuredly look to improve offensively despite how dominate they can be defensively, because in their new Conference the Big 12 there are teams who play wide open and can really score. For now, they are as reliable of a flyer that there can be, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them creep into Impenetrable status in the weeks to come.
  2. Purdue: (12-1) Off (2) Def (9) – IMPENETRABLE
    • The Boilermakers, outside of one night at Northwestern, have looked the part of the #1 team in the Country. They’ve amassed 5 Q1 wins thus far, 3 of which were over teams also found in this top-10. Zach Edey is doing what he does, the difference this year is the play of PG Braden Smith and G’s Fletcher Loyer and transfer Lance Jones. Smith is playing like one of the best pure PG’s in the country, averaging 7 apg and shooting over 40% from 3, huge improvements over his FR campaign. Loyer’s improvements driving the ball to score and the addition of Jones, who excels in that area, has helped as well. Last year it was dump it in to Edey or hope for a clean look from 3, which is great until you fail to hit open shots. This year they can attack the basket much better, with Smith, Loyer and Jones all threats to get to the rim and score, and of course Edey is there to clean things up if they miss. They are also running much more ball screen action with Smith and Edey, which adds just one more thing defenses have to worry about, as Smith has been excellent scoring and dishing out of that. As we enter January this is the team to beat in college basketball, as they have also been a very good team defensively as well, even while playing teams like Arizona, Alabama and Marquette who are elite offensive teams. Everyone likes to make fun of the Boilers and rightfully so after last year, but I think that is fueling this version of Purdue. We shall see.
  3. Arizona: (10-2) Off (6) Def (2) – IMPENETRABLE
    • I will be honest, I watched Purdue beat Arizona in person, and that fact alone is probably the only reason I give Purdue the nod as the team to beat in the Country. The data says Arizona may be more reliable, as they’re top-6 on both offense and defense thus far. You can’t even look and say well they’ve played a weak schedule like Houston, they’ve played 6 Q1 games, going 4-2. The one thing that seemed to be an issue in those losses was their defensive intensity, which is surprising given that #2 defensive rank. But, in those two losses they gave up 92 and 96 points respectively. Granted, they play at a lightning pace so their scoring is going to be inflated, I still think that’s a number to watch as the season progresses. The additions of Caleb Love and Keshad Johnson have added some swagger and toughness to this group which was desperately needed after the past couple of seasons when I described Arizona as soft. With Ballo and Johnson inside, you can no longer say that. Love, Larsson and the emerging Kylan Boswell give Arizona a guard trio as good as any in the Country, and they have depth as well playing 9 guys most nights, all of which are extremely talented. So far, the Tommy Lloyd era has been great in the regular season, but they are just 2-2 in the big dance despite being a 1 and 2 seed. This may be his best team yet, but it all hinges on March. Stay tuned.
  4. BYU: (11-1) Off (12) Def (7) – IMPENETRABLE
    • I’m going to toot my own horn here for a second, as I took a lot of flak from the Big 12 community when I posted my Big 12 preview and had BYU 6th. The thought of BYU in the top half of the Conference was the one prediction I received the most criticism for, and here we are. Apparently I was the only one outside of Provo who saw this train coming, and frankly I probably was still off the mark as they look like they can be right there with Houston and Kansas at the top of the Conference. Now, I don’t expect them to be a dominant top-5 team at the end of February, but the way they have dismantled a relatively easy schedule should at least gain them some credit. They are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Country, at nearly 38% as a team, and have been playing down multiple impact players, most notably starting F Fousseyni Traore. They also just welcomed back transfer guard Dawson Baker who scored in double figures in all but 3 games last year for UC Irvine, shooting 38% from 3. Not to mention talented FR Marcus Adams just made his debut in their last game. This was a very young team a year ago who brought back a ton of talent, shored up some holes and has catapulted itself into national relevance. The one loss to Utah was tough, as they shot just 23% from 3 and were without Traore, who is a force in the paint, but I expect this team to just continue to improve. The Big 12 is obviously going to be tough but they are equipped to be a top-4 team in this conference.
  5. UConn: (11-2) Off (4) Def (23) – FLYER
    • This year’s version of UConn has received a ton of praise, and I’ll be the first to admit they’ve looked better than I thought they would. I put a future on Marquette in the Big East before the season, and still think it’s between them and UConn. What worries me about the Huskies is their lack of 3-point shooting, just 32% on the year and the defense that seems to come and go. They’ve gotten away with their poor shooting by being a top-10 team on the offensive glass, but as the schedule toughens up in the Big East, I worry that may catch up with them. And then there’s that defense, which just last week gave up 75 points to a meh Seton Hall team on just 62 possessions. They’re also getting some early credit for beating teams like IU/Texas/Gonzaga who are all big programs that are not nearly as good as you might think. I’m taking a pause on this group, even though they have talent, with Clingan, Newton, Karaban and the talented FR Castle back in the fold, I just want to see more. They have a ton of guys who are attempting to step into more prominent roles, so with time they may start playing much better. For now, I think 5th is too high and could be more about where they started than how they’ve truly played. That will all get ironed out, so we’ll see if I’m on the right track with this one in the weeks to come.
  6. Tennessee: (9-3) Off (31) Def (4) – FLYER
    • Well Rick Barnes continues to employ a culture with Tennessee that is an absolute nightmare to play against and to watch frankly. The defense is great, super physical and a ton of FT’s if the refs want to prevent a game from becoming an all out brawl. That’s nothing new though, what is a little different is we see that offensive number in a much better position than year’s past. I have avoided Tennessee like the plague the last couple of tourney’s due to their inability to score, and it has prevented them from making deep runs. This year they’ve added a guy in Dalton Knecht that has drastically improved their ability to score, and with Josiah-Jordan James healthy and shooting 43% from 3 there’s clearly been improvement on that end thus far. I still am not overly confident that once Big 12 season play gets rolling that number is going to continue to look good, as there’s a ton of pressure on Knecht to create. They need Vescovi to start playing better, he’s shooting just 30% from 3 after shooting 38% over his career. There’s potential for things to get better, but also to regress, I’m not sure how it’ll go but one thing is for sure is they’ll continue to be a lockdown defensive group that drags you into the depths of hell with their physicality. It’s all about making shots consistently for the Vols, new year, same story.
  7. Illinois: (10-2) Off (19) Def (17) – FLYER
    • I was starting to gain some confidence in Illinois as the clear contender to Purdue in the Big Ten, but the recent suspension of Terrence Shannon Jr, for what seems like a long time, casts some doubt. He was a do everything guy for them and I’m not sure just how far they are going to fall without him. They have a lot of talent outside of him, and won game 1 without him by 30 points so it’s possible they’re still a threat. It’s just hard to imagine they’re 7th best good without a 20 ppg scorer. This is a wait and see situation.
  8. Alabama: (7-5) Off (1) Def (91) – VULNERABLE
    • If you’ve ever read anything I’ve written about Alabama you’d know I love Nate Oats. The style they play is right up my alley and frankly is just analytically sound. This year there’s some major issues though on the defensive end, which hasn’t always been the case in the past with Oats. Normally these Alabama teams play aggressive, force turnovers and when they do get beat have the shot blockers inside to bail them out. None of that is the case this year. They can score with anybody, but as we’ve seen they just cannot stop anyone, as Purdue, Arizona, Creighton, Clemson and Ohio State all scored 85+ points. They may be the best offense in the Country, but they will not find success unless they start getting stops. They aren’t forcing turnovers, they’re giving up offensive rebounds, it’s just a disaster, and I’m sure Oats would echo the same sentiment. Do not trust the Tide unless they start defending, that’s all you can say.
  9. Duke: (8-3) Off (11) Def (29) – FLYER
    • Duke has been an odd team this year, as I thought they’d be one of the best 2 or 3 teams in the Country with all of their returning talent. But, here we sit with them having losses to Arkansas and Ga Tech, both not in my current bracketology field. They do have a good win over Baylor most recently that got them back into the top-10, but so far I have been disappointed in the Blue Devils. They have a fairly easy start to ACC play, but if they don’t toughen up defensively they may run into some trouble as the season goes on. Filipowski is a good scorer, but man he does not like contact, and that passiveness seems to be leaking to the rest of the team. Proctor has been hurt for 3 games and it might be the best 3 game stretch of the season for the Blue Devils, as the FR guards McCain and Foster are getting more time and playing really well alongside Roach. It’s a young group, but with so many SO’s back from last year’s team you’d expect to have seen some progress, but it really seems like more of the same. Good but not great.
  10. FAU: (10-2) Off (10) Def (31) – FLYER
    • After an early season loss to Bryant the Owls were 49th in KP’s rankings, they’ve since gone on a tear, including an OT win over Arizona to lift them into the top-10. They’re no longer the Cinderella, and with all their guys back from last year’s Final 4 run, this group looks poised to go on another run. It’s all about dominating Conference play now though, as they’ve gone through the Gonzaga style schedule of loading up the non-con to make up for the weak Conference competition. They really only have Memphis to deal with in the AAC, so it’s all about staying focused and taking care of business. This is an elite offensive team, as we saw last March, but if they just show up defensively over the next 6-8 weeks then we could see them as high as a 2 or 3 seed with those wins over Arizona and Texas A&M. Dusty May is going to be the most coveted HC there is in college hoops if this train keeps rolling. What a story.
  11. Auburn: (9-2) (18) (19) – FLYER
  12. Marquette: (10-3) (24) (14) – FLYER
  13. Iowa St: (10-2) (40) (5) – FLYER
  14. UNC: (9-3) (8) (39) – FLYER
  15. Wisconsin: (9-3) (13) (37) – FLYER
  16. Kansas: (11-1) (35) (6) – FLYER
  17. Creighton: (9-3) (17) (25) – FLYER
  18. Baylor: (10-2) (3) (71) – VULNERABLE
  19. Kentucky: (10-2) (7) (54) – VULNERABLE
  20. Clemson: (11-1) (15) (33) – FLYER

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