Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 8 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (13-0) Off (18) Def (1) – FLYER
   • We all know what Houston is about, and they flexed those muscles in their 1 win since we last met, holding Penn to just 42 points en route to a 39 point W. The amazing stat is they won the possession battle by 24, dominating the offensive glass and forcing 22 TO’s. They also did this without 2 major pieces in J’Wan Roberts and Terrance Arceneaux. Of course, it was a home game against an Ivy League school, but still, they continue to look like one of the greatest defensive units we’ve seen in a long time. We talked about the historical numbers they have thus far last week, but we continue to call them a flyer due to that offensive number. To reiterate the problem, it’s simply putting the ball in the basket, shooting just 49% from 2 (209^th), 35% from 3 (112^th) and just 66% from the line (318^th). Just the FT number alone could be a major detriment in March, but we’re going to find out real quick how concerning all that will be as Big 12 season kicks off. They get WVU at home (easy W) but then their first true test on the road against Iowa St Tuesday night. Watch that one closely, should be a rock fight.
2. Purdue: (14-1) Off (2) Def (7) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Boilers continue to look like the most complete team in the Nation while picking up 2 Big Ten wins this week. The road win over Maryland was easy as the Terps never led, and the Illinois score looks much closer than it really was, as the Illini also never led but closed the gap late as the Boilers took their foot off the gas. The concern with Purdue is always smaller teams that can play 5-out offensively, because that puts big Zach Edey in a glaring mismatch defensively. Last year FDU took advantage of that better than Purdue was able to take advantage of Edey’s size on the other end. That problem poked its head again late in the Illinois game as the Illini went small and scored in bunches. The difference for the Boilers this year is outside shooting, which has improved from last year’s 32% to 39%. If teams take away Edey with a double or just fronting and over helping, outside shots are open, just have to knock them down. This year, to this point, that is the biggest improvement, with defense being right behind. They get a pesky Nebraska team on the road this week followed by a down Penn St at home. Look out for Nebraska though, that is an interesting test for this group.
3. Arizona: (11-3) Off (5) Def (3) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Arizona is somewhat of an enigma this year, losing by 18 to Stanford while giving up 100 points, right after I pointed out that suspect defense, but then coming back and beating Colorado by 47. When they’re locked in, they’re as good as anyone, but when they don’t show up defensively anyone can beat them. That’s a scary thing when thinking about March. Yes the defensive number says they’re an elite team, but that’s on the average, and there have been 3 nights out of 14 where they didn’t show up defensively and each time gave up 90+ points an a loss. Yes the data says impenetrable, but you can’t ignore the inconsistency when you’re talking about a team you’re counting on to win 4 or 5 or 6 high leverage games in a row come March. I’m going to be watching them really closely as they navigate Pac-12 play, as I just can’t see that #3 number staying that high over the course of the next 17 games.
4. BYU: (12-1) Off (8) Def (10) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I’ve been on an island beating the BYU drum since the pre-season when I was roasted for having the audacity to even have them finishing in the top half of the Big 12. Even a couple BYU fans on Redditt called me crazy, and maybe they’re right, but all indications thus far is BYU is even better than I thought they’d be. There is however still doubt, as their schedule has been weak thus far, but here comes the Big 12 schedule with all its might, so over the next 18 games we’re going to find out if this is for real. On the docket this week is Cincy at home and then their toughest test thus far with a trip to Waco on Tuesday. There’s no hiding now, it’s sink or swim for the Cougars.
5. UConn: (13-2) Off (4) Def (35) – FLYER
   • The Huskies have bounced back and reeled off 3 in a row after dropping one to Seton Hall. This week DePaul was expected, but the road win over a frisky Butler team was big for them to build some momentum. The one thing I’m watching with this group is that defensive number, as it has ballooned from 23 to 35 after the two games this week. Now, you could attribute that to the absence of Donovan Clingan, who is averaging multiple blocks per game and helps them on the glass, but either way, it’s the only thing to monitor with this team as we know they can score. They keep getting better too as the FR Stephon Castle gets healthy and comfortable, so once Clingan returns they’re going to be tough to slow down. This week they have another average team on the road in Xavier and then a cupcake with Georgetown.
6. Alabama: (8-5) Off (1) Def (71) – VULNERABLE
   • Since we last met Alabama absolutely torched Liberty, who is a very good mid-major team, so a 45 point is an attention grabber. The defensive number improved, but still isn’t good enough to trust this group with a 10-foot pole. There isn’t much new to say, we know they play fast and can score, but the question still remains if they can improve enough defensively to be a true threat come March. This week they get a bad Vandy team on the road and then a decent S. Carolina at home in what shouldn’t be anything other than a 2-0 week. If it’s not that, then I would imagine they didn’t defend and gave up 90 points in a loss. That’s how they will lose games they shouldn’t, if they do. We shall find out.
7. Illinois: (11-3) Off (6) Def (19) – FLYER
   • The Illini are an interesting story right now, as they’ve played 3 games now without their leading scorer Terrance Shannon Jr and seemingly have been better offensively without him. Since last week their offensive number climbed from 19 to 6, as guys like Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier and Justin Harmon have filled the gap and the ball is moving much better. They destroyed Northwestern by 30, and then battled back against Purdue on the road in what was their toughest game on the schedule. No shame in losing that one. The bottom line is there’s a ton of talent on this roster, and without the standing around watching Shannon they seem to be playing a bit better. It’s still early on without him, but another massive test with white hot Sparty coming to Champaign this week will be a great example of what to expect from the new look Illini.
8. Tennessee: (10-3) Off (31) Def (2) – FLYER
   • As we’ve been saying for the last couple of year’s it’s all about the offense for the Vols, as we know they’re going to be one of the best defensive teams in the Country. This is the best they’ve looked on that end during this era under Barnes, and most of that can be attributed to newcomer Dalton Knecht, who leads them in scoring. They’ve won 6 in a row, but the schedule is about to ramp up in the SEC, with undefeated Ole Miss coming in and then a trip to Mississippi St this week. We are going to find out real quick if they can score well enough to win tough games, as we know Chris Beard led teams are going to defend and of course that’s Miss St’s calling card as well. 2 rock fights in store, must-see TV all week.
9. Duke: (10-3) Off (10) Def (25) – FLYER
   • Duke had a dominant week with 2 blowout wins over Queens (yawn) and then Syracuse, which was far more impressive. The FR Jared McCain is the story right now, as he’s been on fire during this 5-game winning streak, scoring in double figures in each game and is now shooting 47% from 3 on the season. He’s now starting over a healthy Tyrese Proctor and the Dukies are better for it. I still question their toughness, and it’s not really going to get tested much in the ACC, but I wonder how they’d fare against a Tennessee or Houston who brings such physicality. They don’t offensive rebound well, and the defense can go through lazy stretches, but you can definitely tell they’re improving as these FR come along. Trips to Notre Dame and Pitt await this week, but if they are who they think they are it should be a 2-0 week.
10. Auburn: (11-2) (16) (18) – FLYER
    • Finding Auburn in the top-10 is surprising to me, as they really haven’t picked up an impressive win and have a bad loss to App St out there. However, since that loss they have been dominating bad teams, with 6 wins in a row, all by 16+ points including wins over IU and USC (neither in the tourney as of today). Like with all the other top-10 teams life is about to get much more difficult, with a trip to Arkansas up next and then Texas A&M coming to town. I wouldn’t be shocked if they went 0-2, but a 1-1 split could be good enough to keep them hanging on to top-10 status. Their strength is their pace, behind FR guard Aden Holloway as well as their strength inside with Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams. The glaring weakness is 3 point shooting, just 33% (174^th) and they’ve put teams at the line too much, ranking 270^th in FT’s given up. Free points given and missing shots on the other end is a recipe for L’s to stack up. We’ll see if it haunts them in SEC play.
11. UNC: (10-3) (12) (26) – FLYER
12. Marquette: (11-3) (26) (9) – FLYER
13. Wisconsin: (10-3) (14) (29) – FLYER
14. Baylor: (11-2) (3) (72) – VULNERABLE
15. Kansas: (12-1) (39) (5) – FLYER
16. Creighton: (10-4) (20) (20) – FLYER
17. Michigan St: (9-5) (32) (8) – FLYER
18. Iowa St: (11-2) (46) (4) – FLYER
19. Kentucky: (10-2) (9) (48) – FLYER
20. FAU: (11-3) Off (15) Def (44) – FLYER