Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 8 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (14-1) Off (16) Def (1) – FLYER
   • Well Houston finally dropped a game, and surprise surprise it was the offensive end of the floor that caught up to them. Iowa St was able to match their physicality, and in the end hit a few more shots than the Cougars. I expect them to bounce back, but there’s no doubt if you have a couple of shot makers and can match Houston’s physicality you can beat this group. That’s a tall task though, especially with the frontcourt of Roberts/Tugler/Francis. Houston still looks like the team to beat in the Big 12, but the shooting droughts will be the thing to watch going forward. Their offense was basically just standing around and hoping someone could make a play. Credit to Iowa St’s D, but at the same time they exposed some limitations for Houston, as they always have 2 guys on the floor who can’t shoot outside of the paint with that frontcourt group. What they rely on is their offensive rebounding, and that’s going to have to carry them through, because they really can’t score sometimes and good teams will be able to hold them off on the glass. Will be interesting to watch the rest of this season and the schedule won’t let up as they get another road challenge with a rising TCU team and then head back home with Texas Tech. A 2-0 week will do a lot to make it feel like they really are the best team in the Country.
2. Arizona: (12-3) Off (5) Def (4) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Just one game from Arizona since we last met, and they just put it to a pretty good Utah team at home. There’s not a huge update from this one, we’re still watching the defense despite that 4th overall ranking from KP. In their 3 losses they’ve given up an average of 96 ppg, while holding the 12 teams they’ve beaten to less than 1 point per possession. When they’re locked in defensively, they’re the best team in the Country in my book. What concerns me for March is you don’t know what team is going to show up. You’d like to assume they get up for March games, but it’s out there lingering, whereas with teams like Houston or Tennessee you always can count on them showing up with physicality and togetherness on defense. It’s a distinction, but Arizona’s offensive ceiling is so much higher than any of the other great defensive teams I think they would be my bet to be able to win 6 games in a row as it stands in early January. Time will tell, but next up is @ Wazzu who is very well coached despite a lack of talent, and then back home against a flailing USC team.
3. Purdue: (14-2) Off (2) Def (17) – FLYER
   • Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, #1 ranked Purdue has lost on the road to an unranked team. Like clockwork another team full of shooters and a plan to eliminate Edey from the game knock Purdue off their mountaintop again. Nebraska did everything right, took Edey away, took driving lanes away and looked at the other four guys on the floor and said go ahead, out-shoot us from 3. They forced Purdue to take 9 more 3’s than 2’s and did their best to eliminate offensive rebounds. All of the credit should go to Nebraska, as they shot 14-23 (61%) from 3, most of which were tough contested shots, especially in the 2nd half. You’re not going to see that level of shot making again if you’re Purdue, but what you can’t do is come out sluggish and let an inferior opponent get rolling early in the game. I’m not going to say the sky is falling for Purdue, nor would I say this takes away my confidence in them come March, but a bounce back blowout of Penn St would certainly help quiet the noise. After the Penn St game they go on the road to rival Indiana, where a win would go a long way for their confidence because that is going to be a desperate Indiana team.
4. Auburn: (13-2) (13) (5) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Last week I was surprised by Auburn entering the top-10 chat, and here I am again surprised by them all the way up to 4th. They had two impressive wins last week, going to Arkansas and dismantling them by 32 and then coming home and winning a slugfest with A&M by 11. They’ve now won 8 straight games by double digits since the loss to App St, hell of a run. The thing about this Auburn team is they have a 2 headed monster in the frontcourt with Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams. These 2 have been dominating during this stretch, and with solid guard play out of guys like Holloway/Donaldson/Johnson/Baker-Mazara they are a connected and complete team. Don’t get it twisted though, what makes them a true contender on a National scale are those 2 dudes at the 4/5 spot. They now enter a lull in the schedule, with LSU at home and then a trip to the cellar of the SEC in Vandy upcoming. A loss in either of those games would be nothing short of a disaster, so I fully expect them to be 15-2 the next time we meet.
5. UConn: (14-2) Off (3) Def (42) – FLYER
   • It was a successful week for Hurley and co. picking up a road win over Xavier which is never anything to take for granted, especially with the other 4 top-5 AP teams falling on the road this week. The thing we are watching with this group is that defensive number, which has now ballooned from 23rd to 42nd over the last couple of weeks. We’re getting closer and closer to that vulnerable zone, but I do think a lot of the struggles are due to the absence of Clingan who provides a shot blocking presence inside for them. Also, an understated part of defense is finishing a possession with a rebound, something they really struggled to do against Xavier, giving up 20 offensive boards. Clingan should be back in the next week or two, so I expect them to improve defensively after that point and drive that number back down, but it’s still going to be the thing to watch with this UConn group. They get a cupcake with Georgetown at home and then a tougher game with Creighton at home. 2-0 without your star big man would be impressive.
6. Tennessee: (11-4) Off (23) Def (2) – FLYER
   • The Vols are an interesting team to watch right now, as they had a dominating win over an at-the-time undefeated Ole Miss by 26 but then lost on the road to a good Mississippi St team. The reason they’re interesting is they’re just so close to putting it together on both ends of the floor and becoming a very dangerous team. We know they can defend and rebound; it’s just been the scoring that has been the issue over the last couple of seasons. However, this year they found a go-to scorer in Knecht, which has been huge, but what is also emerging is a Robin to Knecht’s Batman in Zakai Zeigler. Zeigler had a tough November returning from injury and knocking the rust off, but since the start of December he is averaging 14.5 ppg and 6.4 apg. They obviously have their droughts offensively, see 1st half of Miss St game where they scored just 22 points, but they showed their celing in the 2nd half with more energy scoring 50 and almost completing a wild comeback. In short, I like where Tennessee is headed this year more than I ever have under Barnes. It’s just time to put it all together, with that nasty, physical defense and a 2-headed monster of Knecht and Zeigler offensively. Up next they head to a Georgia team that’s won 10 in a row and then back home to face Florida. Should be a 2-0 week, but this is college basketball, you just never know.
7. Duke: (12-3) Off (8) Def (14) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Duke is really starting to hit their stride right now, becoming a dominant force like many, including myself, were predicting coming into the season. The growth of the FR guards McCain and Foster has been huge, as both are outplaying Tyrese Proctor now. They struggled a bit with a feisty Notre Dame team in South Bend, but really flexed their muscle @ Pitt, winning by 22. The scary part is they should only continue to get better as these young kids continue to get better and better. They obviously have weaknesses, a lack of physicality being one of them, along with virtually zero offensive rebounding, but with the offensive talent and team defense they can be a real problem in March. They share the ball, they guard well and shoot it well at all 3 levels. They are clearly the co-favorite in the ACC with UNC, and should be 17-3 when they head to Chapel Hill 2/3. This week it’s a cake walk with Georgia Tech and Pitt at home. The ACC doesn’t offer much resistance, but for seeding they just can’t afford to drop a gimme.
8. Alabama: (10-5) Off (1) Def (57) – VULNERABLE
   • The Tide are starting to get rolling, and despite nearly losing @ Vandy I’ve still been more impressed with this group after they undressed S. Carolina 74-47. Mark Sears has been on an absolute tear, scoring 52 points in those 2 games going 9-13 from 3, as he looks like the player of the year in the SEC and a potential All-American. However, the improvement was on the defensive end, as they were much more active and forced 17 TO’s. The weakness is still in the frontcourt, as they have no shot blockers and their leading rebounders against SC were 6’1” Sears and 6’3” Estrada. The lack of a physical presence down low is what gives me pause and is what is causing that defensive rank to be so low. No shot blockers makes it very tough to play aggressive on the perimeter like Oats likes to play, and they struggle to secure defensive rebounds. Yes, they can score, better than any other team in the Country, but if you can’t get stops it’s going to catch up to you. Next, they go to Mississippi St, and I have no reason to think they won’t give up 15+ offensive boards and allow Tolu Smith to go off. After that it’s Mizzou at home so give me a 1-1 week from Bama and TBD if they remain top-10.
9. UNC: (12-3) (14) (8) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Tar Heels have been one of the most impressive teams in the Country over the last few weeks, winning 5 straight games all by double digits. The key shift for this group happened in mid-December after back-to-back losses to UConn and Kentucky. In both of those games they gave up 87 points, well over 1 point per possession. Since then, they’ve held all 5 opponents under 1 point per possession, allowing no more than 69 points and the last 3 have all scored under 60. All of those last 3 wins were road ACC games, including Clemson who is a top-20 offense. That’s incredibly impressive, and a huge turnaround for a team under Hubert Davis that has struggled mightily on that end of the floor. If they can sustain this level of intensity on D they will be one of the best teams in the Country, because offensively with Bacot/Davis/Ingram they have one of the better trios in the Country. Similar to Duke, the schedule is soft until that massive matchup, with home games over Syracuse/Louisville this week. Barring a massive upset we should have a 18-3 UNC hosting 17-3 Duke. What a night that will be.
10. Illinois: (12-3) (7) (22) – FLYER
    • As we’ve discussed previously the Illini are adjusting to life without Terrance Shannon Jr, and credit to Underwood and his guys because they’ve been playing really well. They beat Sparty at home in what was always going to be a tough game, and Underwood has shrunk his rotation to 7 guys. 5 of those 7 scored in double figures, with Marcus Domask being the feature guy offensively. They’re very tough to guard even without Shannon, playing 5 guys who can shoot 3’s with a Hawkins and Guerrier front court, they very well could compete with Purdue and Wisconsin for a Big Ten title. Next up are 2 very winnable games with Maryland at home and then on the road to a Michigan program that is all but finished for the season, so we should be seeing Illinois remain in the top-10 next week.

11. Wisconsin: (12-3) (6) (29) – FLYER
12. BYU: (12-3) (20) (11) – FLYER
13. Creighton: (12-4) (18) (16) – FLYER
14. Baylor: (13-2) (4) (72) – VULNERABLE
15. Iowa St: (12-3) (52) (3) – VULNERABLE
16. Kentucky: (12-2) (9) (48) – FLYER
17. Michigan St: (9-7) (25) (21) – FLYER
18. Marquette: (11-5) (48) (10) – FLYER
19. Kansas: (13-2) (42) (12) – FLYER
20. OKLAHOMA: (13-2) Off (44) Def (15) – FLYER