Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 6 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (15-2) Off (11) Def (1) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Last week I was hoping for a 2-0 week from Houston to really build the belief that they truly are the #1 team in the Country, as all the data would suggest. What we got was a thrilling 1 point loss @ TCU and then a bounce back, 23-point drubbing of Texas Tech at home. The loss to TCU once again exposed some of the Houston limitations, as they shot just 22% from 3. They shot much better at home, but the shooting dry spells that come with this group is their one shining weakness. We’ve spoken at length of how they offensive rebound and how well they defend, and that is good enough to compete for a Big 12 championship. However, they need to find some consistent offensive schemes, as watching them offensively can be very painful at times. They stand around, and the only guy who can really make plays on his own is Jamal Shead. To illustrate this point, looking at their 2 losses he had just 8 assists and 6 turnovers. Their prior 2 wins he’s had 21 assists to just 3 turnovers. His ability to get in the lane to score/distribute is critical to their success offensively. There’s a lot on his shoulders, and it’ll only continue to get tested as Big 12 play rolls on. With a hot UCF team coming in and then a trip to BYU up next week the schedule is unrelenting.  
2. Purdue: (16-2) Off (2) Def (19) – FLYER
   • What a bounce back week for Purdue after losing to Nebraska last week. They handled business v Penn St in Mackey Arena, and then went on the road and dismantled rival Indiana in what was one of their more impressive Conference performances. They finally locked in defensively, and while it’s not hard to outwork this year’s IU team, they still looked far better than they previously had energy wise on the road. That’s a key when it comes to March, as you truly have to bring your own energy on those neutral courts a majority of the time. Edey is still as dominant as they come, putting up 63 and 34 over these 2 games, but what is most impressive has been the ancillary guys and their ability to knock down shots. Last season they shot just 32% from 3, this year they’re damn near 40%. That improvement is what has me starting to believe this group can pull off the 2019 Virginia story arc. 1^st round embarrassment to National Champs. Next up is a trip to Iowa where they’ll need to lock in defensively as the Hawkeyes can drop 90 on anyone, especially at home. Watch that one, but the home game v Michigan should be an easy dub. A 1-1 week will cause a pumping of the brakes on the Natty thoughts, but 2-0 and I might be all-in.
3. Arizona: (13-4) Off (8) Def (3) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Wildcats are a mystery as they’ve now lost 4 times, 2 of those to non-tourney teams as it now stands. The most recent, a loss to Wazzu, was just more of the same issues we’ve talked about in the past. They gave up more than 1 point per possession to a team sub-70 in offensive efficiency, which marks a 4/4 trend in their losses. They followed it up with an easy win over USC, where the defense was better along with the offense as well. In that loss they amassed 22 offensive rebounds, and still lost, shooting just 34% from the field and missed 8 free throws. So while the defense wasn’t amazing, the offense also fell short for the first time this year. In spite of all of that they’re somehow still top-10 in both O and D on the season, and therein lies the mystery. When they show up to compete, they so thoroughly dominate they’re metrics are looking amazing, it’s just those 4 losses that are throwing up red flags. Here we trust the data, and it’s telling us Arizona should be the favorite. But forgive me for having a bit of hesitation watching them sleepwalk through a couple of these Pac-12 games. Trust the data, trust the data. Next up is UCLA at home and a trip to Oregon St, in what has to be a 2-0 week or things will definitely change.
4. Auburn: (15-2) (9) (9) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Auburn continues to do steamroll through their schedule, winning 10 in a row now, all by double digits. LSU and Vandy aren’t exactly tough competition though, and that’s the issue they face right now, as they have 0 Q1 wins so despite their great metrics they still need to add to their resume to get a top seed. They have been ultra-impressive though, dominating the front-court with their duo of Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams, who combined for 36 and 20 in their last W over Vandy. Add in Dylan Cardwell’s 12 and 6 off the bench and it’s easy to see where the strength of this Auburn team lies. I’m really just waiting to see this group take on a top contender and see how they look, as it’s one thing to run through a weak schedule and another to actually beat quality teams. They get a mysterious Ole Miss team at home and then have a trip to Bama after that in what will be a must watch game. Hang tough or even win that game and I’ll be a step closer to really taking this team seriously.
5. UConn: (16-2) Off (3) Def (33) – FLYER
   • UConn continues to roll, and welcomed big man Donovan Clingan back in their most recent win vs Creighton. We had been watching them suffer defensively, and I had been chalking it up to his absence for a few weeks now as we saw their ranking balloon from 23 to 45. Well, with Clingan back, they held an explosive Creighton team to just 48 points. They dominated the glass as well which was an issue in prior games, winning the OREB battle 21-6 and the overall possession battle by a whopping 22. All of that means when you go 5-19 from 3 you can still beat a good team pretty handily. It certainly helped having Clingan back, but it’s worth noting the rest of the team showed much more effort defensively and on the glass. If they can bring that going forward, they’re going to really take form and look like a real threat for March once again. They play just once until we meet again, with a tough road test against Nova. That will be a fun one.
6. Tennessee: (13-4) Off (21) Def (2) – FLYER
   • The Vols continue to look like a whole different level of good this year compared to what we’ve seen in the past, and as I’ve said before that’s all on the shoulders of Dalton Knecht, who dropped 36 and 39 in the 2 games this week. Nobody else in the Country can score the way he can at all 3 levels, and as we discussed last week the continued emergence of Zakai Ziegler as his Robin is making Tennessee more and more scary as the weeks go by. Their ability to defend at an elite level, mixed with an offensive arsenal led by Knecht is a combo that can finally get Rick Barnes and these Vols over the hump. They have to continue to take care of business though, and they’ll be tested in their lone game this week with a white hot Bama team coming to Knoxville.
7. Alabama: (12-5) Off (1) Def (63) – VULNERABLE
   • Bama winning @ Mississippi St really has to make you pause and wonder if you can really take this group for real. They don’t defend, but an offense this elite is something you must stop and think about. They went on the road against a top-10 defensive team and put up 82 points. When you look back and try to find offenses with this level of efficiency, you’re looking at teams like 2021 Gonzaga (runner ups), 2018 Villanova (Champs), 2015 Wisconsin (runner ups) which makes you stop and pause…but then you get to 2013 Mizzou, who unlike the previous teams mentioned, struggled mightily on the defensive end, much like this year’s Bama. Mizzou lost as a 2 seed in the 1^st round. I’m not saying Bama definitely is going to get upset, but therein lies the reason for the vulnerable tag. You don’t go on runs being this unbalanced. You have to be able to win on both ends of the floor at times when you need 4/5/6 straight wins against quality teams. Those 3 mentioned earlier were all top-25 defensively. Until we see an improvement on that end from Bama, we just can’t bet on them to go on a run. They’ll have opportunities to prove themselves this week, with two top-10 teams on the docket. First, they head to Knoxville and then host rival Auburn. A 2-0 week would obviously change things, but even splitting those games wouldn’t be anything to hang your head about.
8. UNC: (14-3) (15) (5) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Tar Heels are playing as well as any team in the country right now, winners of 7 straight by double digits. As we spoke about last week, the turnaround has been on the defensive end, as they’ve now held 7 straight opponents to 1 PPP or less. There’s really not much more to say at this point, as they’re kind of just strolling through what is a pretty weak ACC schedule right now. They go to Boston College who is feisty but not good, and then get Wake Forest at home who they should handle. Like I mentioned last week, the first UNC/Duke matchup is setting up to be an absolute classic, with UNC looking at 18-3 while Duke also looks like they’ll win out and be 17-3. That game will be absolutely massive in Chapel Hill, so until 2/3 there won’t be much to add unless the Heels drop one they shouldn’t.
9. BYU: (14-3) (14) (8) – IMPENETRABLE
   • BYU hit a snag last week, dropping back to back games and falling from 4^th to out of the top-10 in the process. They bounced back though, winning at UCF and then knocking out Iowa St at home. I had to take a step back from my BYU take but I still think this team can absolutely make some noise in the Big 12 and in March. They hit 3’s as well as any team in the Country, they defend at a high level and they keep people off the offensive glass. It’s a recipe for success, and while most are looking at BYU as if they’re this WCC team that the Big 12 is going to rough up, I think they’re right there with Kansas/Houston at the top of this Conference. They travel to Texas Tech in a winnable but tough game next, and then they truly get to prove themselves with Houston coming to Provo on Tuesday. This is one of those times when I could look back and say, wow how wrong were you, but I just see them squeaking 1 of those out, but only if their best shooter Trevin Knell is back healthy after missing the Iowa St game. Either way, it’s a huge week for the Cougs.
10. Duke: (13-3) Off (7) Def (31) – FLYER
    • Duke had a quiet and unimpressive week if you ask me, with just one game skating by GA Tech at home. They gave up 79 points and at one point in the second half got down 10. They fought back and won, but that was a scary one for a young team and HC where the guys just didn’t show up and they almost lost a bad one. They’ve already lost to the Yellow Jackets once and also an Arkansas team that doesn’t look good either. You’re going to see this from a young team, but that is very dangerous when entering March as a top seed. You have to show up in March, no questions asked, regardless of the program you get. I have way more reservations with this team than I thought I would have coming into the season. They’re soft and don’t always play hard. That’s a bad recipe for the Madness. Of course, they’re a young team so there’s time for change, but it better come fast as things will get tougher down the road. This week they get two cupcakes with Pitt at home and a trip to Louisville, but if they sleepwalk again they could suffer another bad loss. Keep an eye on the young Dukies.
11. Illinois: (13-4) (10) (27) – FLYER
12. Wisconsin: (13-4) (6) (39) – FLYER
13. Kansas: (15-2) (28) (11) – FLYER
14. Iowa St: (13-4) (56) (4) – VULNERABLE
15. Baylor: (13-2) (5) (47) – FLYER
16. Creighton: (13-5) (42) (7) – FLYER
17. Kentucky: (12-2) (4) (58) – VULNERABLE
18. Michigan St: (11-7) (25) (24) – FLYER
19. Marquette: (12-5) (32) (14) – FLYER
20. OKLAHOMA: (14-3) Off (48) Def (20) – FLYER