Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 6 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (20-3) Off (19) Def (1) – FLYER
   • Houston got their first taste of Allen Fieldhouse and it did not go well. They were outplayed from start to finish, as Kansas made their vaunted defense looking nothing of the sort. It’s very difficult to do that to Houston, but if you can neutralize their defense and also keep them off the boards, they can look pretty average. Houston struggles offensively in the half-court, and we have spoken at length about their struggles and reliance on Jamal Shead and that’s what we saw play out in that loss. They did bounce back and flex their muscle on Oklahoma St later in the week, and that’s what we’ve come to expect with Houston. They are never going to lose to a bad, team, virtually upset proof. What my concern with Houston is when they get later in the tournament and face more competent teams, especially offensively. We won’t know until we know, but for now they travel to a hungry Cincinnati team in what should be a wild environment. Would be a huge win for either team.
2. Purdue: (21-2) Off (1) Def (15) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Similar to Houston, Purdue has an obvious strength and has oscillated from impenetrable to flyer thanks to the other end. This week, we see them just good enough defensively to qualify thanks to their huge win @ Wisconsin. We know at this point who they are, the best offensive team in the Country, thanks to not only Zach Edey but the guard play of Braden Smith and Lance Jones. For the Boilers it’s seemingly going to come down to getting the March monkey off their back, as they look like a sure bet to at least get into the Sweet 16, but we’ve thought that before. I’m not sure there’s anything they can do to build my confidence, but they could certainly lose it if they lose to either IU or Minnesota at home. I expect them to handle business, especially against IU who beat them in Mackey a year ago.
3. UConn: (21-2) Off (3) Def (14) – IMPENETRABLE
   • UConn is the hottest team in the Country right now, winners of 11 straight, the longest active streak. That includes 4 road games in the Big East, but the most notable improvement from them has been on the defensive end. Just a few weeks ago we laid out why we thought the 42^nd ranking on D would improve with the return of Donovan Clingan, and that’s exactly what has transpired. They need him to anchor their defense, and since he’s been back they’ve now climbed into the top-15 and into the impenetrable category. They are also getting much better play from rising FR Stephon Caste, who missed some time earlier in the year but is beginning to hit his stride, evidenced by his 21 point performance @ St. John’s. Everything is coming together for Hurley and Co. once again, as they look to be the first repeat champs since Florida in ’06-’07. This week they get the bottom dwellers of the Conference in DePaul and Georgetown, so this train should just keep on rolling.
4. Auburn: (19-4) Off (10) Def (3) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Auburn is on fire and finally building a resume that can back up their outstanding metrics. They picked up 2 Q1 wins since we last met, and put up 90+ points in the wins over Ole Miss and Bama. They had struggled a bit offensively in the early stages of SEC play, but the front-court duo of Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams are dominating right now. In fact, Broome is playing like the 2^nd best big in the Country behind Edey, and has 21 blocks over the last 5 games. Dominates the boards, 20+ ppg and is an anchor for them defensively. While their guards aren’t going to wow anyone, that duo up front is tough to contend with. Speaking of guards though, Tre Donaldson has taken over the starting PG role and is playing much better. If he continues to improve and the front-court stays dominating I will really fall in love with this Auburn team. They have another tough week as they head to Florida on Saturday and then host a hot South Carolina team later in the week.
5. Arizona: (18-5) Off (6) Def (12) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Arizona is suffering from multiple personality disorder, as they have one side that can be the most dominant team in the Country, and another that can lose to anybody and often flip midgame. For example, they were down 11 at halftime at home vs Stanford, flipped a switch a outscored the Cardinal 48-26 in the 2^nd half to win by 11. Then, @ Utah they were actually up by 15 at half, and flipped the switch again as they fell asleep and blew that lead in the 2^nd half. They ended up winning in 3OT, but that inability to put together 40 minutes of good basketball is going to catch up to them at some point. They play with their food, they fall asleep, and ultimately just count on turning it on when they have to and escape with wins. It’s amazing that they can do that and still be top-12 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies, speaking to just how good they are when they turn it on. It’s tough to trust a team that doesn’t bring it every night, or even every half, but at the end of the day the data has them as one of the most complete teams in the Country. Their toughest Pac-12 test remaining comes on Saturday @ Colorado, we’ll see which version shows up, and for how long.  
6. Tennessee: (17-5) Off (13) Def (5) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I expressed some doubt in Tennessee last week after their home loss to South Carolina where they mustered up just 59 points. They bounced back in a major way, scoring 103 @ Kentucky and then 88 v Vandy. Once again, the play of Zakai Zeigler proved to be the major difference maker, as he combined for 43 points and 22 assists in there 2 wins this week. He had just 2 points and 3 assists vs South Carolina. The data speaks for itself. Dalton Knecht delivers every night, but he needs a Robin, and Ziegler has been the best bet in that role, so going forward I hope to see Ziegler stay aggressive. They’re obviously great defensively, it’s just all about the support around Knecht. They hit the road this week with trips to Texas A&M and Arkansas.
7. Alabama: (16-7) Off (2) Def (65) – VULNERABLE
   • It’s the same old song and dance for this Bama team, as if you’ve been reading along week by week you know exactly who this team is. They blew out Mississippi St thanks to lights out shooting, but then they went to Auburn and got handled thanks to their lack of defense. We’ve highlighted how they’re missing an interior presence that can block shots and rebound, but it’s worth repeating as it’s the glaring missing piece. They gave up 99 points and Auburn dominated the paint, forced turnovers and got whatever they wanted. I have zero trust in Bama, even if they do make it out of the first round alive they’re vulnerable to give up 90 and lose in every game they play. They have just one game this week and it’s @ LSU, who is not very good but they can score, so if Bama doesn’t show up they could easily lose that game. All of this criticism aside though they are 10-2 in their last 12 with the losses being @ Tennessee and @ Auburn so it’s not all negative.
8. UNC: (17-4) (23) (8) – FLYER
   • UNC had a massive win over Duke last weekend and evidently began feeling themselves just a bit too much, as they were asleep to start the game vs Clemson and dug themselves a hole they couldn’t get out of. That’s now losses in 2 of their last 3. I had concerns a week ago over Bacot’s lack of usage, maybe Hubert Davis is a reader of the column, or it was just an obvious thing I was pointing out, as they fed the big man repeatedly in both games as he racked up 20-point double-doubles in each game. The issue vs Clemson was the 1^st half defense, or the lack thereof. Cormac Ryan is also an issue, as he’s shooting a pathetic 29% from 3 and is shooting like he’s Jimmer. You want a guy to be confident but at some point you have to take a guy out when he’s struggling this badly. Hopefully he can either find a rhythm or they will give someone like Paxson Wojcik more run. We’ll see how they respond in a tough stretch, as they head to Miami and then Syracuse, two teams who desperately need big time wins.
9. Illinois: (17-5) (7) (32) – FLYER
   • The Illini have been hanging around this 9-10 range for a while now, and while they didn’t lose last week the home win over Nebraska in OT was a bit alarming. Nebraska is a decent team, but Illinois had a 10-point lead with 3:30 to go and blew it, forcing it to OT and squeaking it out. They fell asleep at the wheel thinking it was over. Hopefully that was a lesson learned, but it speaks to their defensive issues as they often get lazy and give up runs. That’s their key issue, and it’s going to prevent them from a deep run in March if they can’t turn it around. They’ll have 2 chances this week to improve, with a trip to Michigan St and then a home game vs Michigan.
10. Marquette: (17-5) (26) (10) – FLYER
    • Marquette has re-entered the top-10 chat after blowing our Georgetown and the teams above them slipping up. Marquette has been a bit of a disappointment this year as they had a ton of hype pre-season after returning almost everyone from a team that was a 2 seed a year ago. They’re basically the same team, with Tyler Kolek running the show and a frantic defensive strategy we’ve all come to expect with Shaka Smart. They’ve struggled offensively at times this year, as they really haven’t shot the ball as well from 3. What they’ve done is ask Kolek to shoulder more of the scoring load, which isn’t his nature as he likes to distribute but he’s been on a tear since they lost back-to-back games in early January where he had just 7 combined points. Him being aggressive has been massive for them during this 6-game winning streak, and I would imagine it only continues as they play St. John’s at home and then @ Butler in a revenge spot. I think they could be here to stay, but it was nice to finally switch things up as the top-10 had been pretty steady for the past few weeks.
11. BYU: (16-6) (8) (25) – FLYER        
12. Iowa St: (17-5) (48) (4) – VULNERABLE
13. Kansas: (18-5) (24) (18) – FLYER
14. Wisconsin: (16-7) (11) (31) – FLYER
15. Duke: (17-5) Off (9) Def (37) – FLYER
16. Baylor: (17-5) (4) (75) – VULNERABLE
17. Michigan St: (14-9) (35) (20) – FLYER
18. Creighton: (16-7) (21) (38) – FLYER
19. New Mexico: (19-4) (38) (24) – FLYER
20. San Diego St: (18-5) Off (45) Def (21) – FLYER