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We’re back as the season continues to roll on and storylines continue to develop as the bubble starts to tighten up. Teams are jockeying for position, and we have several teams on the rise while others are falling off a cliff. Rutgers and UCLA have joined the watch for the first time as they have started piling wins and have the schedule in front of them to pull off incredible comeback stories and squeak their way into the dance. Their efforts will be helped by teams like Utah and New Mexico who were pretty safely in a few weeks ago and have started dropping games they shouldn’t be. Oh and should we mention Wisconsin losing 4 in a row after sitting pretty comfortably on the 2 seed line just 2 weeks ago? With just 4 weeks to go in the regular season pressure is mounting on every team on this list to capitalize on the opportunities in front of them and avoid disaster.
Of course, we know March will be just as wild and unpredictable as ever, but what we can’t allow to be wild and unpredictable is Selection Sunday. So, I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 7-8 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, all the way to the bottom feeders who are holding on to a glimmer of at-large hope with much to do.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/12. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 19
Locks: 10
Bids Left: 39
Bubble: 56
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Duke: 18-5 (9-3) — Q1: (5-2) Q2: (0-2) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (79) Q1(A): (2-2)
Duke added 2 to the win total this week but it didn’t help the resumé all that much to rack up a Q3 and 4 win. They have 5 big time Q1 wins, but that 0-3 Q2 record is as ugly as it gets, so we have to keep our eye on this thing as we head down the stretch because 5-5 in Q1/2 isn’t a bullet proof spot to be in. They have a huge week to improve that record with Wake Forest coming to Cameron Indoor and then a trip to Florida St, in what should be 2 Q2 wins. That would improve that to 2-3 in Q2 and 7-5 overall in those top-2 categories which would make this feel a whole lot better. I think everyone out there is in agreement that this Duke team is better than their resumé suggests, as they seem to be getting better and better as this young group continues to come together. At some point though they’re going to have to prove everyone right, and that can start this week.
Clemson: 16-7 (6-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (18) Q1(A): (2-2)
Clemson desperately needed to bounce back this week, and boy oh boy did they ever. They first went to Chapel Hill and knocked off UNC to pick up yet another Q1 win and their biggest of the season. They backed up that big time win by going to Syracuse and picking up yet another win. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride for the Tigers, but they’re on the up slope right now and get to return home for two very winnable games against Miami and NC State. Those 2 are part of a final 8 game stretch where they have just 3 road games, 1 of which is Notre Dame who they absolutely should beat, and another Georgia Tech which is winnable. A 7-1 finish is absolutely in the cards, and would be more than enough to get Clemson into the field.
Virginia: 19-5 (10-3) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (91) Q1(A): (1-2)
The Hoos are on absolute fire right now as they’ve ripped off 8 wins in a row in the ACC and in the process have put themselves in a good position to make the tournament after being out of the field for a majority of the season. Their key issue right now is just SOS and the lack of Q1 wins, as 2 isn’t going to wow anyone and if that’s all they end up with it might not be enough. That 5-2 record in Q2 is good though, and they will get two chances at home to add to that number this week as both Pitt and Wake Forest come to town. Based on how they’re playing I have little doubt they will continue to tear through this schedule this week, and at 21-5 and 9-4 in Q1/2 would be in a fantastic spot. Now, some of those Q2 wins are barely hanging on so things could change, but they should still set themselves up nicely for a massive home chance next week as they host UNC 2/24. That one should be circled, as that is the final Q1 home game for the Hoos, gotta capitalize.
Teetering:
Miami (FL): 15-9 (6-7) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (72) Q1(A): (0-4)
Miami had two big opportunities this week and lost both, as they continue to slip further and further down the bubble. They first were absolutely dog-walked by Virginia, mustering just 38 points, and embarrassment for a team that prides itself on its offensive ability. They then returned home to face UNC and lost a close one down the stretch, but ultimately it was the same old story as they once again gave up more than 1 point per possession and couldn’t keep up. They’re now 104th in defensive efficiency, and while you could make up for that they’re just not an elite team offensively, just 58th. If you don’t defend and you’re not consistently good offensively it’s going to be a long season, and that is what we’ve seen over the last 11 as they’ve gone just 4-7. Their at-large hopes are now on life support, as they have those 2 Q3/4 losses to try and make up for and just 2 Q1 wins. They play @ Clemson and BC this week in what feels like a must-win situation almost the rest of the way. At minimum they need to beat BC, but at 16-10 would still not feel all that great. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Hurricanes.
Wake Forest: 16-7 (8-4) — Q1: (0-3) Q2: (5-4) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (83) Q1(A): (0-1)
Wake Forest is starting to heat up a little, evidenced by their recent 3 game win streak that has put them in position to capitalize on some big chances upcoming. They are still aren’t playing great defense, but they did hold both Syracuse and Georgia Tech to less than 1 point per possession. Also, when you have a guy like Hunter Sallis who can pop for 33 like he did on Saturday you can get away with it. They’ll need to be at their best this week though, as they head to Duke and then to white hot Virginia. If they can find a way to pick off one of those teams on the road they could climb into that first 4 out/next 4 out conversation. Yes, it’s going to take more than just 1 Q1 win, but they have no bad losses and a 5-4 Q2 record that they can improve upon. They still have Duke/Pitt/Clemson at home down the stretch, so everything is in front of them.
N.C. State: 15-9 (7-6) — Q1: (0-6) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (71) Q1(A): (0-5)
Well the Wolfpack are now in desperation mode as they not only lost @ Wake Forest in a tough one, but also at home to Pitt which was almost the final blow. They still have enough opportunities on the schedule to see a path, but they have to be damn near perfect the rest of the way. There are several teams on the watch that are facing crucial stretches, and NC State is among them. If they don’t go to Clemson and win this week that leaves only a trip to UNC and a home game with Duke left to pick up Q1 wins. I’m declaring this a must-sweep week for NC State, as if they drop either game this week they will fall off the bubble radar. I just can’t see them getting in with only 1 Q1 win, and 2 most likely wouldn’t be enough now with just a 4-3 record in Q2. They are barely clinging on, but there’s ultimately still a sliver of a chance.
Syracuse: 14-9 (6-7) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (28) Q1(A): (0-6)
I’m officially putting Syracuse in the same camp as NC State, as they absolutely are in must-win territory if they want to have a chance. They lost another golden opportunity this weekend by losing to Clemson at home, and are down to just 2 more Q1 chances in the regular season. One of those chances comes this week, with UNC heading to New York in what will be their final chance at home to try and prove they deserve to be in the field. I don’t think they’re good enough, I mean they only beat Louisville by 2 this past week so that’s not a rash statement. However, there’s still that glimmer of hope, so they remain on the bubble, even if it may be for the last time. Beat UNC and Georgia Tech this week and there’s definitely still a chance.
–Big Ten–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Illinois: 17-6 (8-4) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (43) Q1(A): (0-4)
The Illini had some time off this week before they took a trip to East Lansing in what ended up being a very fun game to watch, but was ultimately a loss. They played really well offensively but really struggled defensively as Sparty put up 88 points. They are as good as it gets on the offensive end, playing Coleman Hawkins at the 5 has them playing 5-out and creates some matchup nightmares. However, they just don’t defend well enough, and that’s hurt them time and time again against good teams. The loss in the end is not a bad loss by any means, but they do have just 3 Q1 wins and are 0-4 in the Q1(A) category. This upcoming week has a home game vs Michigan that is a can’t-lose game and then a trip to Maryland that is going to mean way more to the Terps than to Illinois. If they can go on the road and pick up another Q1 win I will feel confident to lock them up at 19-6. But fall to just 7-6 in Q1/2 games with a trip to Madison and a game vs Purdue still on the schedule, among others, and we’d still need to see a bit more from the Illini.
Wisconsin: 16-8 (8-5) — Q1: (6-5) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (3) Q1(A): (2-3)
Oh no Wisconsin, not like this again. We’ve mentioned in the past their complete meltdown a year ago, finishing the season 4-12 after starting 11-2, and we may be witnessing a Badger collapse yet again. They lost to both Michigan and Rutgers on the road this week, the latter by 22 points while giving up 78 points to a team that is now 284th in offensive efficiency. It’s as low a low as you could imagine a team that started the season 16-4 could get to in a 2 week period, but it might not be as low as they go. 5 of their last 7 games are Q1/2 games, with one of the other 2 being a rematch with Rutgers. I warned of the impending 4 game losing streak, could we see them finish just 2-5 down the stretch? That would have them losing all of their road games and then to Illinois and Maryland at home. Maybe the Maryland game is a stretch, but can you really say that when they just lost to Michigan? Even a 3-4 finish the rest of the way would mean they finish the season 3-8 and would leave them just 19-12 with a 10-12 record in Q1/2. I have no idea where that would leave them on the seed line but it certainly wouldn’t be above a 9 or 10. They could be in real danger the next time we meet. What a fall from grace for the Badgers.
Northwestern: 17-7 (8-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (37) Q1(A): (2-3)
Northwestern continues to march forward, knocking off Nebraska and Penn St at home as they inch closer to being a sure thing come Selection Sunday. They were without Ty Berry for much of the Nebraska game and the entire Penn St game, but still found a way to get dubs and will hope to have Berry back in short order as they rely on his scoring. They have an extremely difficult trip to the RAC to face a Rutgers team that is on fire, and follow that one up with a trip to a desperate IU team. It’s a difficult week but if they can find a way to split these road games we might will be very close to being able to lock these Wildcats up. There’s a very real chance they go 0-2 though, which will put the pressure on the rest of the way.
Teetering:
Nebraska: 17-8 (7-7) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (51) Q1(A): (2-2)
The Cornhuskers split the week, as we figured, losing @ Northwestern and then bouncing back to beat Michigan at home. They find themselves in an interesting position, as they have a clean resumé and have 2 giant wins to their name (Purdue, Wisconsin). They are a menace at home, but have just a 1-7 road record to this point, which is one of the many points the committee will look at when seeding. So, while it looks like on the surface, with their record and those big wins, they should be sitting pretty, but I’m still not feeling like Nebraska is totally safe with just a 6-8 Q1/2 record and that ugly road record as well. They have some opportunities to add some road wins down the stretch of the season though, starting this week with a trip to IU. They get Penn St at home first, so a sweep this week would go a long way toward boosting this resumé. The IU win would bump them to 4-3 in Q2 as well, making things look even better. It’s not a must-win by any means, but a loss there would move you to 6-9 in Q1/2, below .500 in each, and that would not be all that pretty.
Michigan St: 15-9 (7-6) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (15) Q1(A): (2-4)
Michigan St dropped an inexcusable one this week as they went to Minnesota and lost when they desperately needed to add to their resumé. They were able to bounce back though, beating a tough Illini team on Saturday in a game that was back and forth the entire way. The play of Malik Hall was the difference maker, as he was far more aggressive, scoring 22 after putting up just 6 in the loss to Minnesota. They desperately need him to help out guards Walker and Hoggard, as they’re just not good enough to shoulder the entire offensive load. While the metrics still love this Sparty team, with the 1-1 week and the overall 5-9 Q1/2 record I have them in the Last 4 Byes group. They feel a little more secure after that Illinois win, picking up their 2nd Q1(A) victory, but they are still in a position where they can’t afford to slip up the rest of the way. They have 2 big chances to slip up this week as they head to Penn St and Michigan. Those are 2 games you need to win if you’re a top-25 team like the computers are telling us. We’ll see if they can back it up on the court.
Rutgers: 13-10 (5-6) — Q1: (1-8) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (23) Q1(A): (0-5)
Out of the ashes Rutgers has scratched and clawed their way onto the bubble after just a 2-7 start to Big Ten play. They’ve rattled off 3 in a row now, with their most recent blowout of Wisconsin making this thing very real. That followed up a road win over Maryland which gave them 2 more Q1/2 wins and breathed life into what I believed to be an already dead team. What I didn’t see coming was the return of Jeremiah Williams and how much that was going to impact this team. He has come from nowhere to now be their #1 offensive weapon, which is huge for a team that was somewhere around 300th offensively prior to him entering the lineup. They’re now the 2nd best defensive team in the Country, and have climbed their way to 283rd offensively. Still bad, but they just hung 78 on Wisconsin and have 2 very winnable games on tap this week. It starts with a home game vs Northwestern, a team that can really score but can be vulnerable when things get physical. That is Rutgers strength, so a win there would add yet another Q2 win and give them a shot at moving to 7-9 in Q1/2 if they can follow it up with a win @ Minnesota. Don’t look now, but the Scarlet Knights are making a real run at this thing.
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Baylor: 16-6 (6-4) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (18) Q1(A): (3-3)
The week for Baylor went about as we expected, as they took care of business at home vs Texas Tech and then lost @ Allen Fieldhouse to Kansas. Nothing to be ashamed of with that loss, especially when you consider they held them to just 64 points. They dominated the boards and basically every category but one, turnovers, and that was ultimately their undoing as they coughed it up 21 times to Kansas’ 8. That was the difference in a game that they easily could have stolen on the road, as Kansas really struggled to shoot the ball. With the loss they still remain outside of the lock group, but as we said last week there’s winnable games coming up that if they just handle their business we will be able to lock em up. It starts this week with Oklahoma coming to Waco and then a trip to West Virginia. That’s a chance to stack another quality win and then you just have to avoid a disaster in Morgantown. Go 2-0 and we’ll forget about Baylor until Selection Sunday.
BYU: 17-6 (5-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (52) Q1(A): (1-4)
It’s been a pretty ho-hum stretch for BYU, as they haven’t had a Q1 win since Jan 16th but have avoided any bad losses. They lost on the road to Oklahoma and then came home to beat K-State, pretty much what was expected. The good news is they finally had their full assortment of weapons back on Saturday, as they finally don’t appear to be battling any major injuries and were able to play 9 guys, getting 30 bench points. They are a deep team with a unique 1-2 punch in the frontcourt with Aly Khalifa and Fous Traore. Those 2 hadn’t been healthy together for a while, and while they don’t play at the same time often it’s quite a combo to have to prepare for, as Khalifa plays like a point forward from the elbow often times and Traore is a back to the basket monster. To have both guys back healthy is huge for them in the stretch run, and they’ll look to get hot this week as they get UCF at home and then take a trip to Oklahoma St. It’s a week where an alleged top-20 team should go 2-0, and now that they’re healthy there’s no excuse.
Oklahoma: 18-6 (6-5) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (55) Q1(A): (2-3)
The Sooners are feeling pretty good right now after beating both BYU and Oklahoma St this week, but they now enter a very difficult stretch run here with 7 to go. I’m looking at this schedule and seeing a world where they finish just 2-5, which would drop them to 3-9 in Q1 and overall 8-11 in Q1/2. That would put them in a pretty tough spot, depending on how the rest of the bubble performs. They have just 3 home games remaining, with 2 of those being Kansas and Houston. Obviously they could win those and leave no doubts, but drop those 2 and the only ones I’m seeing as W’s are at home vs Cincy and @ Oklahoma St. They have Baylor/Iowa St/Texas all on the road, basically sure losses there. If they can just beat Kansas or Houston at home I think they avoid a complete collapse, but this back-loaded schedule could spell disaster if Oklahoma doesn’t start playing a little better. They just almost lost to Oklahoma St at home, and we’ve discussed their inconsistent play before. They head to Baylor and then host Kansas this week, so I’ll be watching them closely as an 0-2 week is very possible and could be the beginning of a complete meltdown.
Teetering:
Texas Tech: 17-6 (6-4) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (69) Q1(A): (3-2)
Texas Tech is not in a great position right now but have so many chances in front of them that they shouldn’t feel too worried. They have 4 Q1/2 home games left on the schedule and have 2 winnable road games with WVU and Oklahoma St. That’s a legitimate chance to go 6-2 down the stretch and make this an open and shut case. I have a little pause on thinking that will happen given they are now just 1-3 in their last 4, but the most recent game was a win over a tough UCF team and they battled Baylor to the bitter end at their place. This is a decent team and HC McCasland deserves credit for turning this roster over and in year 1 having them be so competitive in what is a very tough league. They have a massive opportunity to boost their resumé on Monday night as they host Kansas, with a chance to rack up their 4th Q1 win and move to 5-6 in Q1/2 games. The SOS is pretty bad, but the games the rest of the way give them plenty of opportunity to build up that record. After the Kansas game they head to Iowa St, so it’s a big week of opportunity but it’s also a dangerous week where falling to 3-7 in Q1 would start to make things very dicey. Have to capitalize.
Texas: 16-8 (5-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (27) Q1(A): (4-4)
Texas was unable to convert on a massive chance as they lost to Iowa St at home, failing to pick up a big time Q1 win. They bounced back by whooping WVU, but they still sit just 5-7 in Q1/2 games. The 4 Q1 wins set them apart from many bubble teams, which is huge, but that 1-2 Q2 record and a Q3 loss mean you need those wins to balance things out. They have just 3 home games left to finish the season, with only 1 of them being a Q1/2 game as it stands. What that means is they are going to have to find a way to start picking up some road wins, or else they could find themselves just 4-9 in Q1 if they can’t find a way to knock off one of Houston/Kansas/Texas Tech/Baylor on the road. That’s a gauntlet, but that’s life in the Big 12, and if they only finish 3-4 down the stretch that will leave them just 6-11 in Q1/2 games. I’m not sure where that would put them but it certainly wouldn’t be a comfortable position, and it could be out of the field entirely. The homestretch is huge, and it starts with the toughest test left as they head to Houston next Saturday in their lone game this week. I expect it to stay dire for the Longhorns for some time.
TCU: 16-7 (5-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (56) Q1(A): (2-3)
TCU played just once since we last met and fell @ Iowa St, suffering the same fate as every team that’s gone to Ames this year. It’s nothing to be ashamed of, but they fall to just 5-7 in Q1/2 games, with a weak non-conference that’s dragging them down. They still have 3 Q1/2 chances at home left on the schedule, plus some road opportunities, so everything is in front of them. I have them in the field as of now, as should most, but if they start dropping more Q1/2 games without adding anything it could go the other way quickly. They have a bounce back game with WVU coming to Fort Worth on Monday night, and then have to travel to K-State in what will be an absolutely massive bubble game on Saturday. Go 2-0 this week and we’re feeling quite a bit better, but if they lose to K-State they may switch places with them at just 5-8 in Q1/2.
Kansas St: 15-9 (5-6) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (61) Q1(A): (1-3)
I said last week this Kansas St team had to beat Kansas or it was all she wrote for their at-large hopes, and they took care of business. Now, it doesn’t mean they’re in the field by any means, they’re just 1-4 in their last 5 games, but it keeps them alive. They followed it up with a loss @ BYU, but have yet another chance to rack up a quality win on Saturday as they host TCU. I would like to be clear I don’t think this team is very good, they’re really bad offensively, as they turn the ball over at almost the highest rate in the country and are pathetically bad from 3, shooting just 31%. However, they’ve found a way to beat both Kansas and Baylor thanks to their defense, and they’ll hope to continue to ride that down the stretch. They have 3 massive home games left, with the first being TCU and then BYU and Iowa St later in the season. If they can pair those 3 wins with another home win over WVU that should be enough to get them in with 9 total Q1/2 wins.
Cincinnati: 15-8 (4-6) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (51) Q1(A): (2-3)
It was an opportunity to pick up a season defining win on Saturday for Cincy, but they let yet another chance slip through their fingertips as they fall to just 2-6 in Q1 games after the home loss to Houston. It was the lone game since we last met, and what it means is they remain on the outside looking in with 8 to go. As we’ve said with all of the other Big 12 bubble teams, they’re in the land of opportunity, so while it’s a bummer of a loss they hop right back on the wagon as Iowa St comes to Cincy on Tuesday night. It’s another chance to rack up that 3rd Q1 win in their fight to get in the dance, and it’s followed up by another chance as they travel to UCF. I don’t see a 2-0 week coming, but a split of those games means they move to 3-7 in Q1 which keeps them alive. If they fail to win either game though it could be curtains, as the home game vs Iowa St is the final home Q1 chance. You just have to find a way if you want a shot, so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Bearcats.
UCF: 13-9 (4-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (46) Q1(A): (2-4)
As we expected UCF lost their lone matchup this week in Lubbock and fall to just 4-8 in Q1/2 games. It was the same old story for them as they defended well but just couldn’t score enough to win a tough game. As we said last week though the schedule is going to soften a little bit after their road game this week against BYU. After that one, which they will likely lose, they have a 6 game stretch full of opportunity, and a pretty realistic shot to go 5-1 and play themselves into the field. They have home games vs Cincy/Texas Tech/Iowa St/Houston and 2 of the road games are vs West Virginia/Oklahoma St. It’s asking a lot for them to beat both Houston and Iowa St, but if they can find a way to split that group and win the other 4 then we’re probably going to see UCF flip the script and be in. It’s starts this week, and while they may lose to BYU on the road they get Cincy at home in a chance to even up that Q2 record. They have to be damn near perfect, but there remains a path for this pesky UCF squad.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Creighton: 17-7 (8-5) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (38) Q1(A): (1-2)
Creighton was able to grind out a win @ Xavier after dropping another one @ Providence earlier in the week in OT. I spoke at length at my concerns with the reliance on their big 4 and how many minutes they’re having to log, and it was on full display in the Providence loss as they gave up 47 2nd half points and another 13 in OT. Everything is on that group of 4, and they bounced back in the win @ Xavier, but I’m wondering how sustainable it is for the BlueJays. They get Georgetown at home in a game that should allow the starters to get some 2nd half rest, and they’ll need it as they head to Butler later in the week with a chance to avenge their loss at home to the Bulldogs. If they can go 2-0 this week that’ll get them locked up, but another loss would just keep them in a dangerous spot with 2 more Q1 games on deck the next week. They are comfortably in, but as I mentioned last week, the schedule down the stretch is brutal so it could go south quickly.
Teetering:
Butler: 15-8 (7-6) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (13) Q1(A): (2-3)
Butler is still moving in the right direction despite a loss @ UConn this week, as they were able to bounce back and beat Providence at home. It was looking a little dicey as they trailed by 7 with 4 to go in that one, but they were able to finish the game on an 11-1 run and grind out a tough win. That’s now a 5-1 stretch for the Bulldogs as they have risen all the way to the 8-9 seed line by my estimation with that 7-7 Q1/2 record. The road wins over Marquette and Creighton are just icing on the cake, as this resumé has gotten better and better as the weeks have gone on. This week they get both of those teams at home in the rematches, where they get a chance to sweep two of the top teams in the Conference. If they can win both games at home that’ll get them to 5 Q1 wins which is going to catapult them into the On the Right Track group. It’s tough to sweep teams in Conference play, but they’ve already done the hard part by winning on the road. The danger is what’s lurking after this home stand are two very difficult road games, so if they’re unable to defend home court this hot streak could turn ugly quick. It’s a massive week of opportunity, and I’d think they need to at minimum win 1 of these 2 big time games at home.
St. John’s: 14-10 (6-7) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (6) Q1(A): (0-6)
Rick Pitino and co. are struggling to stay afloat as they slog through this Big East schedule, as they are now just 2-6 in their last 8 games. They split the week, beating up on DePaul at home and then losing @ Marquette, which is not a game you expect to win. The unfortunate part is they were up 9 at halftime, but Tyler Kolek took over in the 2nd half and St. John’s could do nothing about it, as he scored 27 and had 13 assists. Dude is a killer, and that just adds one more Q1 loss to the pile as they are now just 2-7. They are right on the cusp of in and out, and are down to just 3 more Q1 chances in their final 7 games. The 1st of which comes right away as they head to Providence next to face a team that is wounded and desperate. They could definitely use that one, but so could Providence, so we’re looking at a game with massive bubble implications on Tuesday night. After that they get Seton Hall at home, another fellow bubble team desperate for good wins. It’s never easy in this year’s Big East, and while these 2 this week are important, the home game with Creighton next week is the one I have circled. Split this week and win that one and that might be enough if they can handle business the rest of the way.
Seton Hall: 15-9 (8-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (47) Q1(A): (2-2)
Seton Hall added a meaningless win over Georgetown this week and then got their doors blown off @ Villanova on Sunday. They never led in the game, which is shocking for a team that has performed well away from home with already 4 Conference road wins. Either way, they’ve dropped to just 5-7 in Q1/2 with now 2 Q3 losses as a stain on the resumé. The good news is they have 4 home games left, 3 of which will be Q2 chances so they’re going to have a chance to swing that Q2 record in their favor. They have massive wins over both UConn and Marquette, so if they can just win their home games down the stretch that will be a 4-3 finish that moves them to 4-2 in Q2 and overall 8-10 in Q1/2. That will give them a solid chance, and obviously picking off one more on the road would probably have them safely in. In terms of schedule remaining I think Seton Hall is in the best position in this group of Big East teams who are all fighting to make the tourney. It starts this week with Xavier coming in and then a trip to St. John’s. Win your home games and you’ve got a shot.
Providence: 15-9 (6-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (0-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (35) Q1(A): (1-3)
The season was likely on the line for Providence this past week and they answered the bell, knocking off Creighton at home to keep their at-large hopes alive. They lost a tough one @ Butler later in the week, but that was without star big man Josh Oduro and they were close to pulling it out. You have to give Kim English and this team credit as they just bring the fight every night, and while they are struggling offensively at times their defense always keeps them in games. Their schedule is nice down the stretch as well, as they have 4/7 at home, with one of the road games being Georgetown, so that’s a very realistic shot at going 5-2 to bring this thing home. The biggest one is the final game of the season when they host UConn, which added to this resumé would put them in prime position to be in the field. It’s all in front of them and it starts this week as St. John’s comes in as a Q2 chance and then they host DePaul. 2-0 week and they could get themselves out of the Last 4 in/First 4 out discussions and have a firm place in the field.
Villanova: 13-11 (6-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (16) Q1(A): (2-3)
Nova dropped another winnable game last week @ Xavier, and while they bounced back to blow out Seton Hall at home I’m just running out of hope for this very talented team. They’re just 6-8 in Q1/2 games with those 3 Q3 losses hanging out there, so it’s going to take near perfection the rest of the way if they want a shot at an at-large bid. They have 4 road games remaining and just 3 at home, so they’re going to have to figure out how to steal a couple on the road, with the game @ Georgetown on Friday night the easiest of those chances. They’ll lose @ UConn, but I’m eyeing the games @ Providence/Seton Hall to begin March as the pivotal games down the stretch. That would add to wins over Butler and Creighton at home, so there’s opportunities to salvage this thing but it’s going to take a Herculean effort. I’m not convinced they have what it takes, but the path is there.
–Pac-12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Washington St: 18-6 (9-4) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (77) Q1(A): (1-1)
Wazzu is now the official surprise of the season, as they’ve ripped off 8 of their last 9 Pac-12 games and just went to Eugene and beat a desperate Oregon team. I think they’re firmly in the dance right now and clearly have the 2nd best resumé in this Conference, including that home win over Arizona. Myles Rice is the best story in college hoops that nobody is talking about, and what HC Kyle Smith has been able to do with this program should have him winning the final Pac-12 COY award. I will continue to bang the drum for this team, and I know West coast hoops just doesn’t get much attention but we have to shine a light on this team as they’re hot and have stories for days. I mean how many teams in college basketball have a FR leading scorer who just battled non-Hodgkin lymphoma while simultaneously playing dudes from places like Macedonia and Nigeria. Great team, great story, nobody talking about them. This week they get Cal and Stanford at home, so the train should keep on rolling as they get closer and closer to being locked up.
Teetering:
Utah: 15-9 (6-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (20) Q1(A): (2-4)
Well, the Utes are officially in free-fall as they’re now just 1-4 in their last 5 games and not only missed a chance to knock off Arizona, losing in OT, they followed that up by losing at home to Arizona St. That adds a Q3 loss to the resumé and all of a sudden it’s looking like we could be witnessing a collapse. You may think, well that’s a bit rash, the Pac-12 offers a ton of winnable games to get this thing turned around, and for the most part you are correct. However, the Utes finish the season with 5 of 7 on the road and are 0-5 in Pac-12 road games. If they can’t figure out a way to win on the road and stop the bleeding we may witness a fall from as high as a 6 seed to all the way out of the field. They start with a reeling USC team that just has to be a win, it just has to be. They follow it up with UCLA to end the week, and the fact is UCLA is playing much better basketball so that’s probably a loss. Split the week and they’re still alive, but 0-2 may send them out of the field altogether as that would drop them to 7-10 in Q1/2 with a Q3 loss.
Oregon: 16-8 (8-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (75) Q1(A): (1-3)
Oregon blew yet another chance at home as they lost to Wazzu after beating Washington. That drops them to just 5-7 in Q1/2 with only 1 Q1 game remaining on the schedule, @ Arizona. It’s looking very dire for the Ducks, but I do think a 6-1 finish to the season is realistic and gives them a shot at getting in, as it would move them to 7-3 in Q2 and overall 9-7 in Q1/2. They may need some help in the Pac-12 tourney but they’d still be alive in my eyes if they can finish 6-1. Any loss aside from the game @ Arizona would likely be the final nail in the coffin, so they need to win 3 straight road games coming up. They have the week off and then play @ Oregon St on Saturday. They are all basically must-win for the Ducks the rest of the way, we’ll see if they can pull it off.
Colorado: 16-8 (7-6) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (69) Q1(A): (0-4)
Colorado is in desperation mode after blowing their biggest chance of the season on Saturday night, losing large to Arizona at home. It was a game they desperately needed and they got smacked, giving up 99 points and losing by 20. Arizona is a great team, but they’ve lost to worse teams, so for the Buffs to just never have a chance was very surprising. They now have just 1 Q1 chance remaining with a trip to Oregon in early March, so until then it’s must-win time as they truly can’t afford another loss. 1 Q1 win is not going to be enough, even if they can push it to 8-3 in Q2, I just don’t think 1 win @ Washington can carry them in. We are looking at a team that needs to run the table, and it’s not going to be easy as they head a UCLA team that is on fire and then to USC after that. Have to pull both of these off or it’s night night for a team that had a ton of promise entering the season.
UCLA: 13-11 (8-5) — Q1: (0-6) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (1-3) Q4: (5-1) SOS (69) Q1(A): (0-3)
Don’t look now but the Bruins are absolutely on fire, and while their resumé has some stains on it from earlier in the season, if they can continue this run they’re on they are going to re-enter the bubble chat. They have now gone 7-1 in their last 8 games, with the lone loss @ Arizona, nothing to hang your head about. This has all been on the heels of Mick Cronin absolutely losing his mind at the poor play of his team, I guess maybe he reached them. They obviously still have some winning to do, but they actually have some good chances left in spite of being in the bad Pac-12. This week they get 2 more Q2 chances with both Colorado and Utah coming in. Win both of those games and we’ll all have to take this group seriously as they’d move to 8-1 in Q2 games, and although they don’t have a Q1 win they’ll have chances later in the year with Arizona at home and trips to Washington and Washington St still on the schedule. They need near perfection, but with the way they’ve been playing that doesn’t look all that far fetched. What a job by Cronin.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Alabama: 17-7 (9-2) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (4) Q1(A): (2-5)
The Tide went on the road this week and got curb stomped by Auburn as their defensive inefficiencies were on full display giving up 99 points and never really standing a chance. They bounced back with a win @ LSU to keep themselves in great position with just 7 games to play. At this point we know exactly who Alabama is, and it was highlighted this past week, giving up 99 and 92 but going 1-1 by scoring 109 in their 2nd game. They play ultra fast and let it fly from 3, but defensively their missing that big man presence inside to block shots and rebound. That missing piece isn’t going to keep them from making the tourney, but it is going to cause them to lose a few more games down the stretch, especially with 3 tough road tests and Tennessee at home on the schedule. They have the week off and then face Texas A&M at home on Saturday in a game that will add to their Q2 win total if they can get enough stops. The key there will be rebounding, as the Aggies are the best offensive rebounding team in the Country, a bad matchup for Bama.
Auburn: 19-5 (8-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (67) Q1(A): (1-4)
Auburn got their revenge on rival Alabama, pummeling them by 18 at home in a raucous environment. That led to a natural let down on the road though, as they traveled to Florida and they themselves got pummeled, falling by 16 in Gainesville. While not surprising, a loss like that was a bit concerning as they shot the ball poorly (just 3-16 from 3), were out-rebounded and turned it over 15 times to Florida’s 7. Those last two are typical strengths for Auburn, so you may be able to just chalk this one up to a Bama hangover but it would be nice to see them bounce back. All things considered it was still a massive week as they picked up a 2nd Q1 victory in the win over Bama and a road loss to a fellow tourney team is nothing to be too upset about. They will look to get themselves locked up this week, as they have 2 home games with South Carolina and Kentucky. If they’re able to go 2-0 at home this week I’ll feel pretty good about locking up the Tigers at 9-5 in Q1/2, and I have little doubt they’ll get it done.
Kentucky: 16-7 (6-4) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (70) Q1(A): (2-3)
Kentucky avoided any sort of disaster by going on the road and beating a bad Vandy team, but they came back home and lost yet another shootout, this time at the hands of Gonzaga. They gave up 89 points on 71 possessions and are now 124th in defensive efficiency. The silver lining at this point is they just aren’t fully healthy, even with DJ Wagner returning to the lineup he was just replaced on the injury report by starting PF Tre Mitchell, who would have helped big time in the battle inside that Gonzaga dominated. Kentucky has 3 7-footers that combined to play 40 minutes and they grabbed just 7 rebounds combined. It still hasn’t come together for Calipari and his young team, but if they can get Mitchell back soon and develop just a little bit defensively they could be dangerous. They’ll get a chance to rebound at home with Ole Miss coming to Rupp, but it’s right back to the grind after that as they head to Auburn. At minimum they need to split the week, as dropping to 16-9 and just 5-9 in Q1/2 would put them in real jeopardy. The Ole Miss game isn’t a must-win, but for momentum and confidence sake it might as well be.
Teetering:
Texas A&M: 15-8 (6-4) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (19) Q1(A): (2-5)
The Aggies are getting hot at the right time as they’re now 5-1 in their last 6 with the most recent home win over Tennessee being the biggest of them all. The turnaround has been fueled by the improved play of Tyrece Radford, who a year ago was the key as a Robin to Wade Taylor’s Batman, but he’d really been struggling this year. The last 3 games in particular he’s been red hot, scoring 26, 22 and 27 respectively. For a team that struggles so badly offensively, having a 2nd guy that can create for himself offensively is a drastic improvement, and removes so much pressure from Taylor. It’s been a much better product over the past couple of weeks, and they will look to keep the train rolling as they head to Vandy this week and then have a massive one @ Alabama to finish off the week. Have to avoid disaster with Vandy, and then you get a huge opportunity to knock off a top-10 team. Big week for the Aggies to keep building momentum.
Ole Miss: 18-5 (5-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (73) Q1(A): (1-3)
Since we last met the Rebels had just 1 game @ South Carolina, and while they battled hard they fell just short, losing by 3 on the road. That added yet another Q1 loss, and they now sit just 5-5 in Q1/2 games. While I still have them in, the margin between them and the group of teams battling on the cut line is shrinking as they all add more and more quality wins. The schedule, quite frankly, isn’t the most giving in terms of quality chances, but they do have 3 more home games that will give them shots at Q1/2 wins. Those don’t come this week though, as they head to Kentucky next and then host Mizzou in a can’t-lose game. Obviously, going to Rupp Arena and winning would be massive, but that’s asking a lot for a team that somehow ranks even worse than Kentucky does defensively. Huge over bet here btw. If they can just hold serve at 1-1 that’ll set up a stretch with better opportunities, just have to take care of business, and maybe steal one.
Mississippi St: 16-8 (5-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (27) Q1(A): (2-4)
Mississippi St got back to their brand of basketball this week, holding both Georgia and Mizzou to well under 1 point per possession in 2 comfortable SEC wins. As we mentioned last week it was a tough stretch defensively for them, so turning that back around was a great sign for a team that is now 6-6 in Q1/2 games but being dragged down by the multiple Q3/4 losses. The 2 big wins over Tennessee and Auburn undo those losses in my opinion, but it still puts them in a much more precarious position than they would be if they had just taken care of business. All of that is to say they need to add more before they feel comfortable, but the schedule is not going to allow it before we meet again. They only get Arkansas at home this week in a can’t-lose game that won’t move the needle at all unless it’s negatively after a loss. That will set them up for a huge stretch run full of opportunities, just have to make it through unscathed.
Florida: 16-7 (6-4) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (24) Q1(A): (2-4)
Florida is quietly cooking right now, as they’re now 5-1 in their last 6 and just picked up a massive win over Auburn at home in their lone game this week. Todd Golden deserves a ton of credit for what he’s been able to do with this team, bringing in a ton of transfers and creating one of the best offensive teams in the country. While they struggle defensively sometimes, the way they can score makes them a threat to beat anybody on any given night. They have just a 5-7 Q1/2 record though, with several of those coming in the last few weeks as they continue to rise up the seed list. I have them firmly in right now, others may not, but with that clean of a record and 2 big time wins now in the SEC I think they’re clearly a tournament worthy team. They still have time to build their case, or destroy it, and it starts this week with 2 very winnable games as they host LSU and then head to Georgia. While the Georgia game might not seem that important, it’s their final Q2 chance of the season, with only 3 Q1 games left on the schedule, 2 of which are also on the road. If they lose to Georgia the path could get much more difficult.
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Utah St: 18-4 (8-3) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS (82) Q1(A): (0-2)
I was hoping to see Utah St sweep the week this past week so I could lock them up, but they lost one at home to Nevada, picking up their 1st loss outside of Q1 on the season. While they bounced back to beat Boise St at home on Saturday, that loss pumps the brakes on things a little, although they still would need to meltdown to miss the tourney altogether. Teams are starting to sell out to stop Great Osobor inside, and that is forcing the guards to be shot makers, something they failed to do against Nevada. Fortunately against Boise St Mason Falslev and Darius Brown combined for 43 points to help get them back on track. They have a tricky one this week @ Wyoming, who isn’t very good but has upset both Nevada and Colorado St at home already. If they can survive that one it sets them up with a massive game @ Colorado St. That is their final Q1 road game, so next week we’re going to have a much clearer picture on whether or not we should be concerned about this Utah St team, or maybe even be able to lock them up.
San Diego St: 16-6 (7-4) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (9) Q1(A): (2-4)
The Aztecs were oh so close on Friday night, pushing Nevada to OT in their building but came up short in the end. It was a physical game with a lot of foul trouble on both sides, and ultimately they couldn’t hit enough shots to take advantage of Nevada going just 19-32 from the FT line. Offense is still their issue but the way they defend should keep them in every game and make for a tough out in March, as we saw a year ago. Ultimately, the L keeps San Diego St out of lock territory for now, with just a 7-6 Q1/2 record they aren’t quite collapse proof just yet. The good news for them is they return home for 2 giant opportunities with both Colorado St and New Mexico coming in. If they are able to win both of those that will move them to 9-6 and into lock territory with just 5 games remaining.
Colorado St: 17-5 (7-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (62) Q1(A): (1-2)
Colorado St continues to handle their business at home, beating both Boise St and San Jose St this past week. They are right there on the cusp of locking, but with this difficult stretch upcoming I’m holding off just in case. 3 of their next 4 games are against 3 of the other top contenders in the Conference, with the 4th being @ UNLV which is also Q2. That gives them 4 Q1/2 chances, but that also means an 0-4 stretch is out there which would make this thing feel a whole lot different. They first head to San Diego St, which I would be shocked to see them win, but they then return home to face Utah St. Win that 2nd game and we can probably feel a little safer with this resumé, but this stretch is not something we can ignore, especially with trips to New Mexico and UNLV to follow.
Teetering:
Boise St: 14-8 (7-2) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (14) Q1(A): (2-3)
It was a tough week for Boise St as they dropped 2 difficult road games against Colorado St and Utah St. Their offensive struggles reared their ugly head again, and they’re now down to 7-7 in Q1/2. Thanks to their 5 Q1 wins I still have them pretty solidly in right now, but the next few weeks have become far more critical. They have 4 straight games vs the bottom dwellers of the conference, where they can’t add to their resumé but they can certainly put a giant hole in it. They still have home games with New Mexico and Nevada that can add to the resumé, plus a road game with San Diego St to finish it off, but they have to get to that stretch unscathed. It starts with home games vs Fresno St and then San Jose St. It’s all about avoiding disaster over the next few weeks for the Broncos.
New Mexico: 18-5 (7-4) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (116) Q1(A): (0-2)
The NET is clearly an imperfect science but there’s no greater example of that than New Mexico, who the algorithms believe is a top-25 team despite everything they’re showing them on the court. They’ve now lost back-to-back home games against Boise St and most recently UNLV. Sure they beat Wyoming on the road but they’re now just 4-4 in Q1/2 games and are now saddled with a Q3 loss that has drug them into the true bubble conversations. I have them as one of the last 4 teams in the field, with an ugly SOS and 0 Q1(A) wins I’m not sure they can hold on to that spot. It’s not going to get any easier for them, as they head to both Nevada and San Diego St this week, making it probable that we’re sitting here this time next week with the Lobos having lost 4 of 5 and spiraling. They could obviously surprise me by winning one of those on the road but forgive me for having little faith in them after the way they’ve been playing.
Nevada: 18-5 (4-4) — Q1: (5-2) Q2: (0-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (88) Q1(A): (1-2)
We said last week that this could be a massive week for the Wolfpack and that it was. They went on the road and beat Utah St to pick up their first Q1(A) win and then beat San Diego St in OT at home for their 5th overall Q1 win. They have a big 3 in Keenan Blackshear, Jarod Lucas and Nick Davidson that have been on fire of late and have now powered them into the field in my opinion. Their 5 Q1 wins are tied with Boise St for the most in the MW, but their 0-2 record in Q2 is the one thing weighing them down right now. They have a massive week again upcoming with more chances to solidify themselves as an at-large team, with New Mexico coming in and then a trip to UNLV. A 2-0 week improves them to 7-4 in Q1/2 games which would make me feel pretty confident in their chances so long as they avoid disaster down the stretch. After this week they only have 2 more shots at Q1 wins and they’re @ Boise St and Colorado St, 2 tough ones. Converting this week is imperative.
–American–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Florida Atlantic: 19-5 (9-2) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (109) Q1(A): (1-1)
FAU suffered another loss to a team outside of Q1, making that 4 such losses now. They bounced back from the OT loss to UAB by beating Wichita St in OT, but that unfortunately was a lot of hard work for just a Q3 win. The American offers them not much in terms of resumé building, and they continue to play down to the level of their opponent. Every game seems to come down to the wire with this group, and they’re going to be tested again as they travel to a white hot USF team that happens to also be leading the American regular season race right now. They first get to bounce back with Temple at home, but that game next Sunday could be one that bumps them into a more dangerous zone if they can’t pick up a W, as they would fall to 3-3 in Q2. They can only hold on to their non-conference wins for so long.
Teetering:
Memphis: 18-6 (7-4) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS (114) Q1(A): (1-0)
The Tigers have seemingly gotten this train back on the tracks after going through a 4 game losing streak in January. They were able to beat Temple on the road and then Tulane at home, and while it wasn’t necessarily pretty that’s now 3 in a row to begin February as they look to battle back into the bubble mix. They have two massive opportunities this week as they hit the road to play N. Texas and SMU. These are two very well coached teams who play very hard, so if Memphis doesn’t show up they could easily lose both of these games and all but eliminate themselves from at-large contention. 2 wins though and all of a sudden they would be up to 7 Q1/2 wins and probably would find themselves on the right side of the bubble conversation. It’s a pivotal week for the Memphis Tigers, to say the least.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Saint Mary’s: 19-6 (9-0) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS (94) Q1(A): (2-1)
The Gaels are in a fantastic position as they continue to just rip through the WCC schedule, and with their 4 Q1 wins are just trying to avoid disaster the rest of the way. They blew out both Portland and Pacific and have shown no signs they’ll trip up down the stretch. They still have 2 games to keep an eye on, with both San Francisco and Gonzaga left at home. The only way I see them missing the tournament is if they lose both of those games, and even then they would have a decent at-large case. If they beat San Francisco and win out until the Gonzaga game I would think they are in either way, and Gonzaga would be playing for their lives. As it sits now they probably sit somewhere between a 7 and 9 seed and are going to point toward wins @ Gonzaga and Colorado St as well as a home win over New Mexico. It’s one game at a time though for them, and this week all they have on the docket is Pepperdine at home.
Teetering:
Gonzaga: 17-6 (8-2) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (92) Q1(A): (1-3)
Gonzaga has now given themselves a chance with the win @ Kentucky, finally picking up the Q1 win they’ve been searching for. They welcomed the track meet that Kentucky invited, and were able to dominate the paint behind Anton Watson and Graham Ike. They are still just 3-6 in Q1/2, so they are by no means in the field as it stands now, but they’ll have the rematch with Saint Mary’s circled as their chance to rack up another big time win. That one actually follows a road game with San Francisco as well, so their hopes of an at-large lie in sweeping those 2 games to end the season. What they have to avoid until that 2 game stretch is stubbing their toe along the way, and this weeks trip to Loyola Marymount as a follow up to that big win over Kentucky is the exact type of loss that can sink a resumé like this. After that is Pacific at home, who their backup 5 could probably beat, so they have to show up and take care of Loyola to keep this thing afloat.
–A-10–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Dayton: 19-4 (9-2) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (78) Q1(A): (0-1)
Dayton finally showed some weakness as they lost to VCU, who was able to slow the game down and force the Dayton guards to try and beat them with jumpers. VCU neutralized Holmes inside and made the Flyers a jump shooting team, and they went 4-17 from 3. It’s hard to imagine holding a team to 49 points and losing, but they just could not score. The good news for them is it was a Q1 loss, and keeps their pretty 15-0 record outside of Q1 in tact. The resumé is good enough to absorb a loss or 2 down the stretch, but too many losses could still put them in jeopardy. If they can sweep this week we’re going to have to seriously consider locking them at 21-4 with just 5 remaining. We’ll hold off just to make sure they really do bounce back and beat Duquesne and Fordham at home.
Teetering:
Richmond: 16-6 (8-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (124) Q1(A): (0-0)
Richmond bounced back after the loss to VCU by whooping up on La Salle, but if we’re measuring them up against the rest of the bubble the situation is getting more dire as these major conference teams add more quality wins. If I’m being honest they need to run the table, as that would only add 2 more Q2 wins by beating VCU at home and George Mason on the road. That would make them 8-5 in Q1/2 but with really only 1 high quality win over Dayton. Of the mid-majors on this watch I think they’ll have one of the weaker cases to make, especially with 3 losses outside of Q1. We’re basically just waiting for them to lose in order to toss them to the side, but that chance that they finish 23-6 is still out there. That journey begins with UMass at home and then GW on the road.
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Indiana St: 21-3 (13-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (8-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (124) Q1(A): (0-2)
I know I’m not the only one out there rooting for Indiana St to not slip up, as this is the perfect mid-major team to be in the tourney and go on a run. They are fun to watch and can fill it up, we’re all just hoping they can keep this resumé in tact. As I said last week, I think if they can run the table through the regular season then they can afford to lose in the MVC tourney and still get in at say 29-4 or something like that. They have one last Q2 chance this week as they head to Southern Illinois, a team they beat by 29 earlier in the year. They need to get past Illinois St at home first, but if they can push themselves to 5-3 in Q1/2 they’ll have just that much more of a case come Selection Sunday if they need to make it.
Grand Canyon: 21-2 (12-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (250) Q1(A): (0-0)
It’s a little tougher to make the case for Grand Canyon but what they will continue to hang their hat on is that win over San Diego St. It will be very interesting to stack Grand Canyon up with the other bubble teams if they finish 29-2 and then lose somewhere in the conference tourney. I hope we don’t run into that scenario, and given how much of a gap there is in this Conference between them and #2 I don’t think we will. They have 0 opportunities on the schedule to improve the resumé, they just have to take care of business and hope they can punch their ticket, or else they will put the selection committee in quite the predicament.
McNeese St: 17-3 (10-1) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (12-1) SOS (301) Q1(A): (0-0)
McNeese is in a similar spot as Grand Canyon, as they have 1 Q1 win and an awful SOS that would be a very hard sell if they can’t win their conference tourney. There is such a separation between them and the rest of the field though I just can’t see them losing in a win or go home tourney to any of these Southland teams. They’re well coached and driven by a high major talent in Shahada Wells. If they do run the table and then fall short in the Conference tourney, they’ll hope that wins over Michigan, VCU and UAB on the road can be a strong enough selling point.
James Madison: 21-3 (9-3) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (15-0) SOS (309) Q1(A): (1-0)
As I said last week, JMU is going to have to run the table and even then probably be hoping for a miracle if they fall in the conference tourney. The win over Sparty keeps them on the watch, but the 2 Q3 losses certainly are going to be an anchor. They have back-to-back home games this week and then will end the season with an absurd 4 games in a row on the road. Unfortunately I don’t think any of the remaining games will make it into the Q2 category, so at just 2-1 in Q1/2 they’ll rely on that Michigan St win to carry their resumé. They have the worst case in my opinion of any of these mid-major teams, but it will be wild to see a team that’s like 29-4 miss out on the dance, so if we face the scenario I’ll be curious to see how they stack up.
5-STAR Bracketology 
This is great!!!! Do you post this every week?
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Appreciate it! Yes, I’ve been posting weekly and will probably post more often once we get closer.
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