As we enter the latter part of February the bubble is beginning to narrow, as we have seen a few more teams lose their at-large hopes and have added several more locks. I would also like to get ahead of the fact that I locked S. Carolina only for them to get blown out by Auburn and then lose at home to LSU. Let’s not all panic at once, but there is a chance I was a bit over-zealous with that one. But hey, that’ll be a fun story to watch as I try to avoid the embarrassment of locking a team that misses the dance altogether. Anyhow, we have a myriad of stories developing, including a trio of teams making their bubble watch debut, as Minnesota, USF and Pitt have all gone on runs that have earned themselves some attention. These are teams that not only have given themselves chances at at-large bids but also have emerged as potential bid stealers, as we’ve seen teams get hot before and win conference tourney’s without a true chance at an at-large. The bid stealer is a bubble wrecker, and part of the mayhem of conference tourney season we all enjoy. Until then, we’ll continue to track all teams with at-large hopes, as we lay out exactly what their path to dancing may look like. 

I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.

“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.

“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 7-8 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.

“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, all the way to the bottom feeders who are holding on to a glimmer of at-large hope with much to do. 

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/19. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 19

Locks: 19

Bids Left: 30

Bubble: 45

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–ACC–

Locks: 

   

On the Right Track:

Clemson: 17-8 (7-7) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (28) Q1(A): (2-2) 

Right when it looked like Clemson may have turned a corner, winning three in a row including a win @ UNC, they drop a shocking one at home to NC State to really pump the brakes on this thing. I’m struggling to figure out who this team is, with the capability to beat teams like Alabama and UNC on the road but then they drop games at home to teams like Virginia/GA Tech, and of course this most recent one to the Wolfpack. They have almost an identical record across Q1-3, so maybe they’re just that classic play to the level of your competition team? Usually those teams struggle in March, so while the resumé doesn’t put them in any danger to miss the dance, they may not be part of it for long. This week they play @ GA Tech with a chance to avenge that bad Q3 loss and then get Florida St at home. If they want to feel secure down the stretch, they can’t lose one of these two games, as they would both add to the “bad loss” category. They just need to show up and handle business. 

Teetering:

Virginia: 20-6 (11-4) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (90) Q1(A): (1-2) 

Virginia had one of the more shocking losses of the week as they had their 8 game winning streak snapped by Pitt at home. That loss makes things way more interesting as evaluating this resumé becomes a little more tricky. They have just 2 Q1 wins, not many, and now are just 4-3 in Q2 games with a Q3 loss sitting out there. I don’t think anyone worth their salt would have them out of the tourney as it stands, however, they’ve left the door more open for another loss or 2 to cause them to slide toward the First 4 out/Next 4 out territory. With 5 to go they have 4 chances to add to the quality win total in Q1/2, but what that also means is they could go 0-4 and play themselves right out of this thing. That may sound dramatic, but 3 of the 4 are on the road vs VA Tech/BC/Duke and then they have UNC at home sandwiched in between. That’s a dangerous 4 game stretch, especially for a team that just lost to Pitt at home. I don’t like to doubt a proven coach like Tony Bennett, but a win on Monday night vs VA Tech would make me feel much better about the Hoos. They follow it up with Carolina at home, so finding a way to at least split the week would suppress the feeling of collapse I’m starting to have. 

N.C. State: 16-9 (8-6) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (68) Q1(A): (1-5)

I declared the game @ Clemson must-win if the Wolfpack wanted to stay on the radar, and by golly they somehow found a way. It took a furious comeback from down 12 with 10 to play, and a last second shot by DJ Horne but they kept themselves alive for another week. They have 6 games remaining now, with the final 4 all being Q1/2 chances, including a massive game on 3/4 as Duke comes to town. If they are able to go 5-1 down the stretch, only losing @ UNC, I think they would have a legitimate shot entering the ACC tourney. That would add a 3-1 boost to what is now just a 4-9 Q1/2 record and add a likely 2nd Q1(A) win over Duke. It’s certainly not a guarantee, but what is a guarantee is if they lose either game this week it’s curtains. They first get Syracuse at home and then BC, two must-win games there’s just no way around it. 

Wake Forest: 16-9 (8-6) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (69) Q1(A): (0-3)

After losing to both Virginia and Duke on the road this past week the Demon Deacons enter this week in must-win mode if they want to stay alive. It was a week where we expected to see 2 losses, as those are two very difficult games to win. What it means going forward though is they have to handle their business on their home court, as they welcome Pitt to Winston-Salem and then Duke comes in for the rematch. If they can add another Q1 and Q2 win then they put themselves right back in the thick of things with a 6-9 Q1/2 record. It still likely wouldn’t be good enough, but it puts them back in the Next 4 Out group probably and sets them up for 2 more quality win chances @ VA Tech and vs Clemson down the stretch. They have the opportunities, it’s now time to start converting on those chances or else we’re going to have to say night night to Wake’s at-large hopes. It’s now nut up or shut up time for this group, we’ll see if they can pull it off. 

Pitt: 17-8 (8-6) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (89) Q1(A): (2-1)

I considered adding Pitt to the watch a week ago, but ultimately thought, there’s no way they go to a white hot Virginia and pull out a win…they sure proved me wrong, and they now have their rightful place on the bubble watch. They backed up the the big win over the Hoos by beating up on L’ville at home and now have won 7 of their last 8 games in the ACC. Blake Hinson has been on fire lately, scoring 27 and 41 in the two wins this past week, hitting 14 3’s in the two games combined. With a guy who can shoulder the load like that they shouldn’t be doubted going forward if they can continue to defend the way they have during this run. The big issue for them is they are just 4-6 in Q1/2 and have 2 Q3 losses, not a pretty resumé by any means. What they do have is 2 more chances this week to add to that quality win total, with a game @ Wake (Q1) and then at home vs VA Tech (Q2). If they can sweep the week they will be right there in the mix of the Last 4 in group, but even a split still keeps them alive. It will put more pressure on them down the stretch though, so starting the week with a win @ Wake would make this thing feel far more real. 

Miami (FL): 15-11 (6-9) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (72) Q1(A): (0-5) 

Well, the Hurricanes are down to their last gasp, it’s hail mary time and with Duke coming to Coral Gables they have one last shot to try and keep themselves in this thing. They’ve now lost 4 in a row after losing to Clemson and BC on the road this week and overall are just 4-9 over the last 13. We’re close to the end of a crash and burn, but the truth is they have a path, however bleak it may be. As I said, it starts with beating Duke and getting a 3rd Q1 W, and then backing that up by beating GA Tech, both at home. That’s very realistic and could potentially swing the momentum for a team that is clearly spiraling. They finish with 2 more chances, @ UNC/Florida St. If they could find a way to pick one of them off that would be a 4-1 finish that added 2 quality wins to improve them to 8-10 in Q1/2. It might not be enough still, but the ACC tourney is out there with chances to pick up more quality wins on a neutral floor. It’s as dire as it gets right now but they have one final swing to try and keep themselves alive. Monday night. Season is on the line. 

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–Big Ten–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track:

Wisconsin: 17-9 (9-6) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (4) Q1(A): (2-3) 

Wisconsin was able to stop the bleeding this week as they beat Ohio St at home, but their concerning play came right back in a loss @ Iowa. We continue to witness the fall of the Badgers, as they are now just 1-5 over their past 6 games and doing their best to undo what was a fantastic 16-4 start to the season. The good news for them is if you take away all of that context and you look at their resumé as a whole, they have a top-5 SOS and 11 Q1/2 wins. They played one of the toughest non-Con schedules in the country and have several big time wins to show for it over Marquette and Virginia, with a sweep over Michigan St to boot. From a trust and momentum standpoint it looks very bleak for Wisconsin, but again they did so much work to start the season they honestly are still sitting in a decent spot, even if they’ve fallen from a 2 seed to a 5 or 6 seed. They have just 1 game this week, at home vs Maryland, a game that they absolutely should win but given the recent history I certainly don’t have a ton of confidence they will be able to. 

Northwestern: 18-8 (9-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (33) Q1(A): (2-3)

The Wildcats were able to bounce back this week after losing a tough one @ Rutgers early in the week by getting the road monkey off their back and winning @ Indiana. That was a very impressive win given they are now without their 2nd leading scorer Ty Berry for the season, so I was curious how they’d fair down the stretch. They snapped their 5 game losing streak on the road in the Big Ten and improved to 9-7 in Q1/2 with just 5 to play, 3 of which are at home. I’m feeling pretty confident again in Northwestern resumé wise, they just need to keep handling business and we’ll be able to lock them up here shortly. So long as nothing crazy happens when they host Michigan this week that should be enough for me to lock as I don’t see their 9 Q1/2 wins getting passed by unless they go on a big losing streak to finish. They can quiet all of that by getting a dub at home on Thursday night.

Michigan St:  17-9 (9-6) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (15) Q1(A): (2-4) 

Tom Izzo once again appears to have his team hitting their stride as we get deep into February, as Sparty was able to pick up a pair of Conference road wins this week and are 8-2 in their last 10. It’s a story as old as time, as Izzo always seems to get his teams humming this time of year, and they’re now in a firm position in the field after picking up 2 more Q2 wins this past week. The play of Malik Hall continues to be the key, as I said a week ago, and he’s continued to be aggressive for them offensively, scoring 29 and 18 this week, which has taken pressure off of Walker and Hoggard. So long as he stays aggressive they should continue to fair much better, and have a chance to gain further momentum this week with 2 home games vs Iowa and Ohio St. 2 more wins and they’ll get themselves above .500 in Q1/2 and really be feeling comfortable as we enter March.  

Teetering: 

Nebraska: 18-8 (8-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (62) Q1(A): (2-2)

Nebraska was able to hold serve this week as they played just one game at home vs Penn St. They won with ease and now set themselves up for a stretch run that gives them the opportunity to stack some wins as long as they can figure out a way to win on the road. They are currently 0-7 in Big Ten road games, and haven’t won a game away from home since Dec 17th when they beat K-State. That’s a bad look, but they haven’t played some of the bottom teams on the road like they will in the 3 they have remaining. It starts with a trip to Bloomington to play IU, a team that is barely a top-100 team but has shown some fight at home at times. This is a game that they need to find a way to win, as it’s a Q2 game and would quiet the whispers about their inability to win away from home. That’s a criteria the committee does consider, and if they continue to drop road games their going to be squarely in that Last 4 In/First 4 Out discussion. They also host a tough Minnesota team after the trip to IU so it’s a big week for them to potentially get to 5-3 in Q2 and create some separation between them and the cut line, or they could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Rutgers: 14-11 (6-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (29) Q1(A): (0-5)

The Scarlet Knights have kept themselves in this thing with another quality win this week over Northwestern and remain very much alive despite the loss that followed @ Minnesota. By no means are they in the field as it stands, but they are playing like a tournament quality team since the return of Jeremiah Williams. They have a tough stretch of games to finish out the season though, with their only meaningful chances being road Q1 games against Purdue/Wisconsin/Nebraska. Finishing 3-3 would mean dropping to 7-13 in Q1/2 games with just a 17-14 record, not sure that’s going to get it done, so the path is going to have to include one of those road games by my estimation, or they’ll need to do some damage in the Big 10 tourney. It starts this week with a trip to Purdue, where they’ve won in the past, but the almost more important game follows that as they host Maryland. Beating the Terps for a 1-1 split would move them to 7-11 in Q1/2 and keep them alive, but if they lose both the dream will be dead. Every game is crucial, but none more than Sunday afternoon for this Rutgers program. 

Minnesota: 16-9 (7-7) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (87) Q1(A): (0-2)

Let’s welcome Minnesota to the bubble watch as they have gone on a bit of a run here of late and have grabbed my attention. It started with wins at home over Northwestern and Michigan St which added 2 Q1/2 wins and gave them their first in Q1. In this year’s bubble that gives you life, especially in the Big Ten where there are opportunities to add more down the stretch, and at 6-8 overall in Q1/2 they’re very much alive. Now, for the bad news, they can’t afford to just split their home and away games, as that would see them only going 1-3 in Q1/2 the rest of the way, not going to be good enough at just 1-8 in Q1. They are going to have to find a way to beat one of Nebraska/Illinois/Northwestern on the road as we close out the season. Of course, they’ll also need to win all their home games, and that includes another Q2 opportunity with Ohio St coming to the Barn. So, I’m seeing the path as at least a 4-2 finish, which would improve their Q3 record to 3-1, Q2 to 6-3 and then they’ll sit 2-7 in Q1. At 8-10 in Q1/2 it’s no sure thing, and likely still might not be enough, but it at least gives them a fighting chance entering the Big Ten tourney where they can pick up some more quality wins. It’s going to take a monumental effort, but the path is there for the Gophers. 

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–Big 12–

Locks: 

      

On the Right Track: 

Teetering:

BYU: 18-7 (6-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (63) Q1(A): (1-4)

BYU lost another head scratcher this week, on the road to Oklahoma St, which followed a win over UCF where they only won by 2 at home. They have fallen off a cliff defensively, as they were once a top-15 ranked team on that end and they’re now sub-50, evidenced by allowing the Cowboys to put up 93 in this most recent loss. I’m not really sure what to attribute the lack of defense to, especially with UCF and Oklahoma St being two of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12. I was expecting this group to continue to improve now that they’re healthy again, but they are now going in the opposite direction and slowly sliding down the seed line as other teams rack up quality wins. They have a massive chance this week with Baylor coming to Provo, but with the way they’ve been defending they may allow the Bears to score 100. They follow that one up with a trip to K-State, who will be desperate for a big win, so this could be another tough week for BYU if they can’t turn around their defensive effort. 

Texas Tech: 18-7 (7-5) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (36) Q1(A): (3-4)

The Red Raiders took advantage of a big opportunity this past week, blowing out Kansas at home to rack up a 4th Q1 win. They lost later in the week @ Iowa St, nothing to be ashamed of, but that did drop them to 5-7 in Q1/2 games. They were without Warren Washington in the frontcourt, and they certainly missed him as they gave up 11 offensive boards and gave up 82 points. He should be back soon, and they’re going to need him as this week brings 2 very winnable games that could allow them to create some separation from the true cut line. They first host TCU and then head to UCF, which by Big 12 standards are games that you can certainly win, especially the first one at home. This is a stretch of 5 straight games where I could see them winning each, as they get both Oklahoma St and WVU on the road plus Texas at home. They finish the season @ Baylor but a couple more wins in a row and we will feel much more confident in this resumé. 

Oklahoma: 18-8 (6-7) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (47) Q1(A): (3-4)

Last week we laid out the gauntlet that awaited Oklahoma over the final 7 games, and as we feared it did not get off to a good start as the Sooners dropped games @ Baylor and then at home vs Kansas. Those are both Q1 losses so not bad by any means, but what it means is they have just 2 home games remaining in the final 5 and that 2-5 finish we feared is well on its way to coming to fruition. This team is just struggling so badly on the offensive end, down to now 73rd in offensive efficiency, and if they can’t find some consistent shooting are in serious trouble and may find themselves in the teetering category. They have just one game until we meet again, @ Oklahoma St, a game they absolutely need to win as the final 4 games are all going to be tough. This is one of those potential collapses that I just can’t look away from. 

TCU: 18-7 (7-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (46) Q1(A): (2-4)

It was a massive bubble game in the Big 12 and thanks to a game winning 3 by Jameer Nelson Jr, TCU was able to pull off a win @ K-State. That one followed a beat down of WVU at home so they’re now 5-2 over their last 7 games in the Big 12. This group has developed into quite the offensive force, and flexed that muscle in the 2nd half of the K-State game, scoring 51 points, including a 20-2 run that flipped the game on its head and propelled them to a massive road win. They are looking like more of a safe bet at this stage, but they’re still just 6-7 in Q1/2 games. They’re in right now, don’t get it twisted, but in the Big 12 it’s so hard to feel good when every night is a chance to lose and those can pile up on you fast. Based on how they’ve been playing I would expect them to hold serve and split this week, as they have a tough one up next @ Texas Tech but then return home to play Cincy in a game they absolutely have to win. 

Texas: 16-9 (5-7) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (17) Q1(A): (4-6)

The Longhorns had just one game since we last met and as expected they lost @ Houston. What maybe wasn’t expected was just how badly they lost, as they were pretty well demolished by the Cougars, losing by 21 and never leading in the game. Texas has played one of the tougher schedules in America, with a whopping 10 games in Q1(A). That schedule is going to help keep them in the field as it stands right now, in spite of just a 5-8 record in Q1/2. The 4 Q1(A) wins are the most on the watch from a team that isn’t locked and that crooked number on the resumé is absolutely massive. They have another chance this week to pick up a decent win with K-State coming in, but they then have to go to Allen Fieldhouse to play Kansas. I would imagine it’s another split of a week, and if they do handle K-State with ease it will probably be just a Q3 win. That means a loss @ Kansas drops them to 5-9 in Q1/2. How long can they hold on to those 4 Q1(A) wins? They may push it all the way to Selection Sunday, as they have 3 Q1 games on the road left and that’s it…lose all 3 but win your home games and we’ll have Texas at just 6-12 in Q1/2. Historically, that won’t be enough, but every year is a different bubble. 

Cincinnati: 16-9 (5-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (35) Q1(A): (2-5)

We said the Bearcats needed to find a way to at least split their games this past week and that’s exactly what they did, even if it was in a surprising manor. They lost at home to Iowa St in a game they trailed the majority of, but were able to bounce back on the road to beat UCF. That gave them another Q1 win which they desperately needed, and as of now they are right there on the cut line. Their ability to win away from home might be a big boost to their resumé, as they have 3 massive road wins now over BYU/Texas Tech/UCF, plus the home win over TCU. That’s a nice group of wins, and they’re just about to the point where they’ve made up for their pathetically bad non-conference schedule. This week offers another road test but they first have to handle their business at home against Oklahoma St, who has gone 3-3 in their last 6 so you can’t look past this one. After what is hopefully a W they will travel to TCU in the rematch, one that you certainly wouldn’t expect them to win but it would go a long way toward making them feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. 

Kansas St: 15-10 (5-7) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (4-5) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (61) Q1(A): (1-3)

Kansas St is now on life support, as they dropped yet another game this week, this time at home vs TCU. That’s one they absolutely had to have and now they are as far down the bubble as they have been all season. They’re now just 1-6 over the last 7 so I have not much faith in this year’s wildcats to be able to do what is required of them at this stage. They ultimately need to finish no worse than 4-2 down the stretch to have a chance. That allows them to lose @ Texas/Kansas and the other 4 have to be wins, including home games vs BYU/WVU/Iowa St, plus a win @ Cincy. If they can add those 3 Q1 wins then they’ll have a legitimate shot to get an at-large berth as we enter Conference tournament season. Of course they could finish better than that, but give the previously mentioned 1-6 record in the last 7 excuse me for not predicting a finish that strong. It starts this week with the trip to Texas and then the biggest game yet with BYU coming in. Pick up another Q1 win and that glimmer of hope is still there, however faded it may be. 

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–Big East–

Locks:

      

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Butler: 15-10 (7-8) — Q1: (4-9) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (7) Q1(A): (2-5)

Well, a team that was just a week ago one of the hotter teams in America has cooled off quite a bit after suffering 2 losses at home to Marquette and Creighton. Those are two big time missed opportunities as they fall to 7-10 in Q1/2 and remain squarely in the bubble mix. They have a lot going for them, including a top-10 SOS and those massive road wins over the aforementioned Creighton and Marquette. That keeps them in the field for now, but as we look ahead at what is coming down the pipe for these Bulldogs I start to get nervous. They now have back-to-back road games against Nova and Seton Hall, two fellow bubble teams desperate for wins. Lose both of those and you’re down to just 4-11 in Q1 with no more chances until the Big East tourney. The final 3 do include 2 home Q2 chances, so if they can win the final 3 they could finish 9-12 in Q1/2 which should be enough to be okay. So, all of that is to say we won’t hit the panic button if they do drop what will be a 3rd and 4th straight game this week, as those final 3 are all winnable and should keep them alive. They haven’t made it easy on themselves, but it’s a fairly clear path, because they still could pull off a surprise road win and make it much easier. 

Providence: 17-9 (8-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (57) Q1(A): (2-4)

I was asking for a 2-0 week out of Providence and they delivered, protecting their home-court and adding another quality win beating St. John’s. That brings them to 7-9 in Q1/2 which for me is good enough to be in the field, but based on consensus that remains a split decision it appears. Lunardi for example, has them behind teams like Gonzaga, Ole Miss and Nevada, who certainly don’t have the quality of wins the Friars do, but evidently those 3 losses outside of Q1 and the bad non-con SOS is still weighing them down in other people’s eyes. Either way you slice it it’s still too close for comfort, so they’re going to have to continue to add quality wins down the stretch. They have a golden opportunity to do just that this week as they head to Xavier, which represents yet another Q1 chance. They’ve proven they can win on the road before (Seton Hall) and now is a great time to back that up and rack up a 5th Q1 win, something that would leave the nay sayers no choice but to have them in the field. Last week I was looking for a 5-2 finish to get them in, they’re 2 wins into that now and frankly one of the losses I counted was this week. Big game but there remains several chances for these Friars to get in, so I won’t be too worried if they do lose. 

Seton Hall: 17-9 (10-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (43) Q1(A): (2-4)

Seton Hall had maybe the best week of any bubble team out there as they defended home court with the win over Xavier to pick up a Q2 win and then went on the road and beat St. John’s for their 5th Q1 win. For me, that’s enough to have them in the field at 7-7 in Q1/2, especially with that massive win over UConn, another over Marquette and now 5 road wins in the Big East, 3 of which in Q1. That’s enough for me to make up for those 2 Q3 losses, but the season doesn’t end today, and they have even more chances down the stretch to continue to bolster this resumé. It starts this week with a home tilt vs Butler, another Q2 chance which could finally flip that Q2 record above .500 and help their case even more as they’d also move above .500 overall in Q1/2. In my opinion, since Big East play began, the Pirates have played like a tournament quality team, they’re just having to making up for two bad non-con losses. If they can just take care of business at home the rest of the way that’s a 3-2 finish that should be good enough to have them in as we enter conference tourney season. 

St. John’s: 14-12 (6-9) — Q1: (2-9) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (10) Q1(A): (1-6)

It’s getting very dire now for St. John’s as not only did they drop a tough one @ Providence but they turned around and lost at home vs Seton Hall. To make matters worse, they blew a lead as high as 19 in the Seton Hall game, and led by 7 in the 2nd half agains the Friars, they just couldn’t close either game. That makes them just 2-8 over their last 10 and has their at-large chances on life support as we enter the homestretch. The good news is they have opportunities to turn this thing around still, and after what should be a road win over Georgetown this week their season will be on the line as they host Creighton. If they can pick up a 3rd Q1 win by beating Creighton they will be right back in the thick of things at 16-12 and 8-11 in Q1/2. They will likely still need more but it keeps them alive with another Q1 shot around the corner @ Butler, plus the Big East tourney. They need to finish 4-1 minimum down the stretch, but there still remains a path, even if morale is at an all-time low. 

Villanova: 14-11 (7-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (28) Q1(A): (2-3)

Villanova is still pretty far out of it but was able to avoid the final blow by beating Georgetown on Friday night, setting themselves up for a potential run with 6 to play. 5 of the final 6 are Q1/2 chances, so a 4-2 finish to the season could make this resumé very interesting. That finish would give them an additional Q2 win and then 2 more Q1 wins, with the final game vs Creighton being yet another statement win. It affords them a loss @ UConn, duh, and then they have to find a way to split road games vs Seton Hall and Providence. If they don’t do that then I just don’t see a way they get in a 17-14 with those 3 Q3 losses. They have to get to double digit Q1/2 wins to try and outweigh those bad losses from earlier in the season. They will obviously have some chances in the Big East tourney but as far as I can tell a 4-2 finish minimum is what it will take, short of a deep run in the BET. It starts with a home win over Butler this week, and then who knows maybe they can shock the world and win @ UConn? 

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–Pac-12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Washington St: 20-6 (11-4) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (82) Q1(A): (1-0)

I am going to continue to bang on the Wazzu drum for another week, as they continue this hot streak that has seen them go 10-1 over their last 11 games in the Pac-12. They handled both Cal and Stanford with ease at home this week, and continue to play through RS FR Myles Rice and transfer big man Isaac Jones offensively. The truth is we’re close to locking this team up, but they have two difficult trips to Arizona this week that are keeping me a bit cautious, as they travel to Arizona first and then to the Sun Devils after. I don’t expect them to go to Arizona and win by any means, especially with the Wildcats looking for revenge, but what they have to avoid is a loss to Arizona St. If they can pick up that road win they’ll finish with 3 straight home games so I’ll feel very comfortable locking them up if they can just split the week upcoming. This is a fantastic story, and if you’re a first time reader you can see my thoughts in prior editions, but just know once March hits you’ll probably be hearing more about this Wildcats program, and should’ve already if they weren’t on the West Coast. 

Teetering:

Utah: 16-10 (7-8) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (5-4) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (23) Q1(A): (2-4)

Utah was able to stave off complete disaster as they won on a last second tip in @ UCLA to keep themselves alive. That win followed a loss @ USC that continued their slide, but they stopped the bleeding on Sunday night and are barely clinging to an at-large spot by my estimation. Ultimately, they’re just 2-5 in their last 7 games and have now racked up 5 losses outside of Q1, not good. They also haven’t added a Q1 win since Dec 9th with their win over BYU at home. They have just two chances left to do so, one of which comes in their lone game this week as they travel to Colorado. They have just 1 road win in Pac-12 play though, so I’m not all that confident they are going to go into Colorado and win with the way they’ve been playing. The last game of the season @ Oregon is the only other chance they have to add quality wins until the Pac-12 tourney, so if they only finish the season 3-2 that will leave them just 8-11 in Q1/2 and 19-12. What a fall from grace, but they do have the chance to turn the whole ship around next Saturday in Boulder. 

Oregon:  17-8 (9-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (75) Q1(A): (1-3)

Oregon avoided disaster by winning @ Oregon St and have taken one step towards that 6-1 finish we discussed last week. Like we’ve been saying, it’s going to take a Herculean effort to push them onto the right side of the bubble, but we’re going to find out quickly if they have what it takes as they have 2 road games this week that could push them to 5-3 in Q2. They first travel to Stanford and then Cal in games they absolutely just have to win. A 2-0 week would push them to 7-7 in Q1/2 which would have them right there in that first group of 8 teams out of the field. They have a long way to go but there still remains a path, as that 6-1 finish would leave them 9-8 in Q1/2 which would give them a fighting chance entering conference tourney season. It could all come to a screeching halt though if they can’t win Thursday night @ Stanford. 

Colorado: 17-9 (8-7) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (6-4) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (73) Q1(A): (0-4)

The Buffs are now in must-win mode as they dropped another Q2 game @ UCLA this past week. They were able to bounce back and beat USC in 2 OT to stay alive, but with just 5 to play they need every win down the stretch. They only have one more regular season Q1 chance left with a trip to Eugene on 3/7, but until then they have just 1 Q2 chance, this week vs Utah. Obviously, that’s a must-win game, but even that one won’t be enough in my opinion to get them on the right side of things entering the final 4 games. We’re likely going to be riding with Colorado and Oregon all the way through the Pac-12 tourney, as each win and loss could be the difference maker for their fate on Selection Sunday. Either way, they absolutely have to beat Utah on Saturday, or all of this gets thrown out and we can just forget about Colorado. 

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–SEC–

Locks: 

        

On the Right Track:

Kentucky: 18-7 (8-4) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (66) Q1(A): (2-3)

Have the 2024 Kentucky Wildcats learned how to play defense? The young Wildcats may have unlocked the key to their post-season success, as they held 2 very good offensive teams in Ole Miss and Auburn to far below 1 point per possession, allowing just 63 and 59 points in the two wins this week. The win @ Auburn was a season defining win, being the first team to go to the jungle and win this season, this young team proved they are not only a tournament quality team but may have found a recipe defensively that can make them a dangerous team in March. We know they can score, evidence by their top-10 offensive efficiency ranking, but if they can continue to defend the way they did this past week the entire country should be scared, as their potential would be through the roof. They have a tough week ahead after that massive win @ Auburn, as they stay on the road to play LSU and then host Alabama, the most difficult team in the Nation to defend. The game @ LSU is the more interesting one to me. How does this young team bounce back after that huge win? Is the defensive effort something that’s going to stick or will their focus slip? I want to believe, but they have to avoid the let down and handle LSU and then give Bama their best shot. Resumé wise they also could really use that Q2 win as well, as they have just 5 Q1/2 wins thus far. It’s a massive week as winning both would lock them up, but there’s a world they go 0-2 and are in a little trouble when we meet next week. 

Teetering:

Mississippi St: 17-8 (6-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (27) Q1(A): (2-4)

The Bulldogs were able to cruise through this recent easy stretch on the schedule, picking up 3 straight wins to build some momentum as they enter a 6 game stretch where every game is either Q1 or 2. They have done it without starting forward DJ Jeffries as well, and he returned but played just a couple of minutes in their recent win over Arkansas, so hopefully he’ll be back to full strength here soon as they’re going to need him. They kick off this stretch with a rematch at home vs Ole Miss and then head to LSU. Honestly, these are 2 Q2 games that it feels like they really need, especially the one at home vs Ole Miss. If they split their road/away games the rest of the way that would leave them 9-9 in Q1/2 which should be good enough. However, winning @ LSU is not only realistic but would open the door for a 4-2 finish that would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable at 10-8 entering the SEC tourney. Much can happen with a 6 game stretch like this, but they would ease much of the concern if they could go 2-0 this week. First, they’ll look for revenge against rival Ole Miss.

Florida: 18-7 (8-4) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (32) Q1(A): (2-3)

Florida is white hot right now, going 7-1 in their last 8 games and are now just a couple more wins away from getting locked up. They have the cleanest resumé of any team on the watch, with 0 losses outside of Q1, they just are held back by the 6-7 Q1/2 record. They beat LSU at home and Georgia in Athens this past week, and now have their biggest test of the season as they head to Bama. That one should be an absolute shootout, as neither team plays any defense and both teams love to shoot the 3 (take the over). It’s not one you’d expect them to win, but dropping to 6-8 in Q1/2 is going to keep them in the bubble mix, and while I don’t think it drops them too dangerously close to the cut line, it makes the next few games very important as they have Q3/4 games at home that they can’t afford to drop, as the 0 losses outside of Q1 is their biggest resumé strength, alongside the wins over Auburn and Kentucky. Give Bama your best shot but make sure you come home and handle Vandy. A 1-1 split like that will be just fine. 

Texas A&M: 15-10 (6-6) — Q1: (6-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-4) Q4: (5-0) SOS (11) Q1(A): (3-3)

I am going to be upfront here, I have no idea what to do with this A&M resumé at the moment, it’s one of the most difficult resumé’s I can remember. They somehow have a better record in Q1(A) games than they do in Q3 games. I mean come on. Last week I said this team looked to be getting hot at the right time, they immediately lost to Vandy to pick that 4th Q3 loss up and throw a wrench in that theory. They followed up the horrific loss by getting blown out by Bama, but they still are a sparkly 8-6 in Q1/2. Is that enough to make up for that pathetic Q3 record? I’m honestly not sure, but I have them in as I would prefer a team who’s proven to be able to win big time games in the field over teams who can’t seem to muster up a Q1 win. Sure they’ve lost some tough ones, but a team that could get upset is all the more fun in the dance, and they should be rewarded for playing a very tough schedule and piling up quality wins along the way. That’s my 2 cents, but whatever the case may be they still have 6 games remaining to try and make their case look even better, and it would help to go ahead and take care of Arkansas at home to prove you can beat the teams you’re supposed to. They then head to Tennessee in what will likely be a loss, but you never know with this team.

Ole Miss: 19-6 (6-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (76) Q1(A): (0-4)

The Rebels split the week, losing @ Kentucky but bouncing back to beat Mizzou at home in what was a must-win. As it stands right now I have this team on the outside looking in, with just 5 Q1/2 wins and 0 in the Q1(A) category. They are right there on the cusp though, and I would understand having them in, but the margins are thin this time of year and if Ole Miss wants to feel comfortable they need to just find a way to add some quality wins to this resumé. They have 2 chances to do just that as they head to Mississippi St (Q1) and then host South Carolina (Q2) later in the week. The issue for the Rebels is they play absolutely no defense, which is surprising for a Beard led team, but at this point it’s keeping them from being able to beat the higher quality teams in the SEC, which ultimately will keep them from dancing if they can’t figure it out. Losing to Miss St and then beating the Gamecocks will keep them right in the hunt, adding a 3rd Q2 win. That would set them up with the biggest chance of the season with Bama coming to town next week, in what amounts to their final home Q1 chance. The path is obviously still there, but I’m starting to doubt this talented team has it in them to pick up that elusive Q1(A) win. 

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–Mountain West–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Colorado St: 18-6 (8-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (51) Q1(A): (1-3)

Colorado St is sitting pretty comfy right now thanks to their 8-5 record in Q1/2 which they added to with their most recent blowout of Utah St. They dropped a tough one earlier in the week @ San Diego St, a game in which they led at halftime but mustered up just 11 points in the 2nd half. It was an alarming 2nd half collapse but ultimately a road loss to a top-20 team isn’t going to hurt you, and it was nice to see them bounce back and beat Utah St by 20. They continue this stretch of continuous Q1/2 games this week with a trip to New Mexico and then UNLV. The game @ New Mexico is one that I would expect they drop, but UNLV is the one I’ll be watching, as avoiding that Q2 loss will be huge and would be enough for me to lock up the Rams with just 3 to play. If they go 0-2 though they still won’t be in trouble but it makes the home tilt with Nevada big time as they would need to bounce back and avoid a 3 game skid. Who knows, maybe they just go 2-0 and make things real simple? When is it ever simple though. 

Utah St: 19-5 (9-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS (79) Q1(A): (0-3)

Well, I’m neither concerned about Utah St nor willing to lock them up after last week, as they avoided disaster @ Wyoming but got blown out by Colorado St in the follow up. They have a great record and honestly are pretty safely in right now, but with just 2 remaining quality chances and some land mines in between them I hope you understand my hesitation with a team that has just 2 Q2 wins. They have a massive opportunity to add to that total though this Tuesday night as they host San Diego St in their lone game until we meet again. If they are able to pick up that massive win we will be able to lock them up, as that would add a 3rd Q1 win and bring them to 8-5 in Q1/2 games with just 4 to go. I have a little less confidence in them to get it done than I did a few weeks ago when they looked like the best team in the Mountain West, as they’re just 2-3 in their last 5. Tuesday night 9 pm, for sole possessions of 1st place in the MW, you know what I’ll be watching. 

Teetering:

Boise St: 15-8 (8-4) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (25) Q1(A): (2-3)

Boise St had a quiet week with just one game which was a win over Fresno St. They avoided disaster and it was a nice bounce back after losing a couple in a row last week on the road. They will continue with this stretch of games against lesser competition this week as they host San Jose St and then head to Wyoming. That 2nd one is a tricky one, as Wyoming, while not good, has played teams tough at home. They’ll need to avoid tripping up there and if they can will set themselves up for a stretch run that offers up 3 more Q1/2 games to finish out the season. They’re in the field as it stands, but a bad loss could really poke a hole in this resumé so they just have to stay focused and handle their business this week. 

Nevada: 19-6 (7-5) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (81) Q1(A): (1-2)

Nevada let one slip through their fingertips last week as they blew a late lead at home vs New Mexico, but showed good resolve as they went to UNLV and picked up a Q2 win. It’s all about avoiding bad losses down the stretch for Nevada, as they have just 2 quality chances left and they’re both on the road, tough one’s to pick up. They have 4 very winnable games against the bottom feeders of the Conference that they just can’t afford to lose. It starts this week at home with Wyoming and then they have a trip to San Jose St. Neither of those wins is going to boost the resumé, but a loss could absolutely send them to the other side of the bubble. I have them in the last 4 byes group, and a 2-0 week is what’s required to keep them in that position. Can’t fall asleep at the wheel Nevada, just handle your business. 

New Mexico: 19-6 (8-5) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (116) Q1(A): (0-3)

New Mexico was able to bounce back after the bad loss at home to UNLV by beating Nevada on the road with a furious rally at the wire. It was a nice response, and added the 3rd Q1 win to the resumé, but it quickly was followed by a loss to San Diego St and they are now just 2-3 over their last 5 games. They have a bit of a reprieve this week as they return home for 2 games, the first of which is a massive opportunity as they welcome in Colorado St. Winning that game would mean pulling to 5-5 in Q1/2 games. Right now I have them in the Last 4 in, but I would not argue much with anyone who had them in the First 4 out. The margins are that thin. That makes the matchup with the Rams all the more important, as it’s the final home Q1 chance on the schedule. If they fail to pick that one up and fall to 4-6 in Q1/2 games I would probably drop them out, and they’d have to find a way to beat either Boise St or Utah St on the road to improve up on that record before the MW tourney. Needless to say, the game Wednesday is hugely important.  

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–American–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 20-6 (10-3) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (7-1) SOS (105) Q1(A): (1-1)

FAU suffered another defeat in the American Conference and are now 2 games back of S. Florida in the regular season standings. They are clinging on to 3 non-conference wins, the biggest being the win over Arizona, but the Texas A&M/Butler wins are strong as well. Beyond that they haven’t been as good as they should be, basically playing to the level of every opponent and losing 2 games in Q3/4. They are still safely in right now but it’s time they start flexing their muscle a little bit, as they’ve lost 2 of the last 4. They get 2 big Q2 chances this week to try and prove they are as good as that win over Arizona suggests, with SMU coming in and then a trip to a reeling Memphis team. If they can go 2-0 this week and extend their Q1/2 record to 9-4 then we will be able to lock FAU up, but I’m starting to wonder if I should still have this high of expectations for last year’s March Cinderella. 

Teetering: 

South Florida: 19-5 (12-1) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (10-2) SOS (236) Q1(A): (0-0)

USF has now won 11 straight games and are 17-1 in their last 18 games after starting just 2-4. The most recent win over FAU to extend their lead in the American by 2 games is the one that should have gotten everyone’s attention, as they’ve proven they can contend with elite teams. They are lead by a transfer tandem in the backcourt of Chris Youngblood (via Kennesaw St) and Selton Miguel (via Kansas St) who are both 42% 3-point shooters and are the go-to shot makers for the Bulls offensively. You have to give first year HC Amir Abdur-Rahim a ton of credit, as he came over from Kennesaw St, brought his best player with him and now has USF in position to make a push for a tourney berth in just his first season. It’s an incredible turn around, and clear proof that this man can coach, but what they can’t allow to happen is a let down this week after that massive win. They travel to UTSA in a dangerous one that you can’t lose, and then they host SMU with a chance to improve that Q2 record to 4-3. Overall the resumé isn’t very great right now, with a disgusting SOS and just 4 Q1/2 wins total. However, with the SMU game and then a trip to Charlotte upcoming they have a couple of chances to grow that Q2 record to 5-3. That could be enough if they can win out, but a few more wins in the American Conference would help out a ton. There’s work to do, but they’ve earned their way onto the bubble radar. 

Memphis: 18-8 (7-6) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS (96) Q1(A): (0-1)

I thought maybe Memphis had figured something out as they picked up 3 straight wins but back-to-back losses have once again put them in a dire situation with just 5 remaining. They had such a strong non-conference with wins over Clemson/Virginia/Texas A&M that they still have a path, but they have to win out the rest of the way in my opinion, which would mean sweeping FAU. If they finish 4-1 losing to FAU on the road they may not be dead, but they would probably need to make a run to the American Championship game to have a chance. It is as dire as it gets, but both games against Charlotte and FAU are at home this week, so they could get right back on the saddle and make this thing realistic again if they can go 2-0 this week. I don’t have much faith, but it’s possible. 

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–WCC–

Locks:

 

 

On the Right Track: 

Teetering:

Gonzaga: 19-6 (10-2) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (98) Q1(A): (1-3)

Gonzaga continues to hold serve as they rip through the WCC schedule, with eyes on the final two games of the season on the road vs San Fran and Saint Mary’s. There are many folks out there who have elevated the Zags into the field already, with the one quality win over Kentucky, but I am not convinced that’s the way the committee would go. I have them out of the field, with just 3 Q1/2 wins that is the fewest of any team on the watch. I understand the win @ Kentucky was impressive, but I do believe the entire resumé evaluation process was so that we would avoid judging teams on the basis of one single game, and the fact is they really have nothing to offer beyond that one win @ Kentucky, however impressive it is. Should we just put a team like Pitt in as well since they won @ Duke? I understand the Zags have just 1 loss outside of Q1, but the SOS is supposed to matter, at least I thought. However you slice it they have those two road games to finish the season to prove they deserve to be in, and if they sweep those 2 they certainly would be. We’ll go ahead and wait and see how it plays out, but I wouldn’t be very confident if I was a Zags fan until I see them pick up a 2nd or 3rd Q1 win. 

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–Others–

Locks: 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Grand Canyon: 23-2 (14-1) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (13-0) SOS (270) Q1(A): (0-0)

Well, thanks to multiple losses by Indiana St, Grand Canyon now sits as the best chance for one of these true mid-majors to try and get an at-large berth. If it was up to me the wins over San Diego St and San Fran would be enough, especially since they’ve been so dominant through their Conference schedule up until this point. They’re so much better than the rest of this Conference that I don’t think they’ll need to rely on the at-large, but at say 30-3 with a win over a top-20 team in San Diego St I’m not sure how you leave them out. I’ve been surprised before, but I truly think they have a chance if they can just continue to roll through the WAC. They have 2 road games this week that will really test their focus, but a 2-0 week will keep them right on track. 

McNeese St: 19-3 (12-1) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (14-1) SOS (307) Q1(A): (0-0)

McNeese has a slightly worse case to make than Grand Canyon does, as they do have the 1 Q1 win like the Antelopes but it’s not over a top-20 team. In fact, it’s barely hanging on as Q1, so their chances are a bit grim right now as they have 0 opportunities to add to their resumé in their conference. They too would present the committee with a difficult case, but I think they could justify leaving them out more-so than Grand Canyon with that sub-300 SOS. Credit to Will Wade and the coaching job he’s done and we’ll all just hope they are able to ease their way through the Southland tourney so we don’t have to see them get left out if that’s what it comes to. McNeese upsetting someone in the first round is what we all want.  

James Madison: 23-3 (11-3) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (17-0) SOS (304) Q1(A): (1-0)

As we said previously with Grand Canyon it’s all about that 1 big time win in the non-conference, as JMU has been sitting on a road win over Michigan St since the season began. They don’t have as many Q2 wins as either GCU or McNeese, but that 1 win sure is a big one as it was on the road. It’s the same story though, they have to finish strong by winning the 4 games they have left. At 27-3 if they were to win a couple more on a neutral court and then lose to App St or Troy they may have a shot, especially if it’s Troy and they’re able to knock off App St. It will be a wild tourney for the Fun Belt, as the JMU story will undoubtedly attract much more attention than usual. They just have to bring it home with 4 more wins to set the stage.