Pre-Season Prediction:

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1.) UConn (#7)

State of the Program:

What can you really say, Dan Hurley has won back-to-back championships and has UConn on the mountaintop right now in college basketball. He once again brings back a deep group from his championship roster and has plugged a few holes that left behind with a strong combo of FR and transfers. He seems to be doing everything the right way, demanding a ton from his guys, but also getting them to buy in and stay and wait for their turn. Now, winning at the level they have certainly helps accomplish that, but it’s still a rare sight in this day and age to see only 1 guy transfer out of a program. They did lose 4 starters though, and while the return of Alex Karaban is huge, there’s a lot of production that the young guys and newcomers are going to have to replace. The new PG and biggest addition is going to be Aiden Mahaney, who was more of a scoring option for St. Mary’s than a true PG, but I think he has the ability to come in and run the show and be more of a distributor and see his efficiency rise with the rise in talent around him. Returnees Diarra and Ball should both be mainstays in the backcourt as well, but don’t expect Ahmad Nowell to be buried behind these guys for too long. He’s a junkyard dog that’s built like a football player and as a PG can do a little bit of everything. I would imagine Hurley will fall in love with his physicality and play style, but we’ll see how much trust he earns as a PG in this system. The other impact FR figures to be sharpshooting wing Liam McNeeley, who profiles as a Klay Thompson style marksman from outside, and while he has a little bounce and good size, I would expect him to mostly be a flamethrower from 3 at the 3 spot. He will battle SO Jaylin Stewart and fellow FR Isaiah Abraham for minutes there, but all 3 could have a role as they could also slide to the 4 at their size behind Karaban. The other transfer is big man Tarris Reed who figures to help shore up the 5 spot along with Samson Johnson who returns after backing up Clingan a year ago. Neither of those guys is going to be the force that Clingan was but together they should produce at the 5. That’s an uber talented group of 10, so needless to say, Hurley has plenty to work with as he tries the impossible, the 3-peat.

Prediction:

I’m not going to doubt Hurley like I did last year, he has firmly established himself as one of if not the premier coach in the country. Even though they lost 4 starters the talent on the roster is still there, and with his schematic ability you know they’ll be in a good place to succeed. The addition of Mahaney strengthens the backcourt, but there still is quite a bit of production to replace with both Spencer and Newton gone. I’m not sure Diarra is ready to jump up and be a double digit scorer, but McNeeley offers that with his shooting ability and Ball was a top-50 recruit that has that ability. I have two main concerns that kept them in the lower half of the top-10, who playmakes in the halfcourt and how they defend the paint without Clingan. Johnson and Reed and both long, but they blocked shots at half the rate Clingan did, and they lost some athleticism on the perimeter with Mahaney and McNeeley coming in. I wonder how far that top-5 defense will fall without the big man and without guys like Castle, Newton and Spencer wreaking havoc on the perimeter. What I don’t doubt is that with shooters like Karaban, Mahaney and McNeeley and Hurley’s mind for halfcourt offense they will be just fine on that end. Just monitor early how well they are defending, as that looks like the area, if any, they could take a decent sized step back. They should still be up at the top of the Conference, and with this recent history I expect them to enter March with a chance at another run and we hear the words 3-peat 9 billion times on CBS.

2.) Creighton (#11)

State of the Program:

It took Greg McDermott 11 seasons to get out of the 1st weekend of the dance here at Creighton but he’s now done so in 3 of the last 4 seasons and has this program rolling. They haven’t been winning the regular season conference title but they have been right up there as one of the best teams year over year in this conference. This year should be no different, even with stars Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman gone, the return of big man Ryan Kalkbrenner for yet another season means they’re primed for another great year. PG Steven Ashworth is also back to run the show and to replace the scoring wings that left McDermott headed to the transfer portal, landing Pop Isaacs and Jamiya Neal. Both of these guys were good scoring options at their previous stops but were rather inefficient as shooters, especially Isaacs who shot just 35% overall from the field. Hopefully with the added talent around them the shooting % will rise, or else Creighton as a team is going to take a major step back as those are all they really have in terms of replacing Alexander and Scheierman. FR guard Larry Johnson is the other option, but he’s pretty raw offensively outside of his highlight reel dunking ability, but that athleticism of course gives him high potential to develop into a dangerous player. The other FR that could have an immediate role is Jackson McAndrew, who profiles as a stretch 4 that would fit well next to Kalkbrenner. He probably needs to develop physically to not get pushed around, but the options at the 4 are Mason Miller, Jasen Green or Isaac Traudt, who haven’t proven to be super productive so the opportunity to play is there. Overall there’s still top-15 talent on this roster, but they have to prove it more this year with the transfers vs the returning talent they had last year. It may take time to click, but with Kalkbrenner inside and the backcourt of Ashworth/Isaacs/Neal it’s obvious why expectations remain high despite the losses.

Prediction:

I think as the season wears on Creighton is going to get better and better and Isaacs and Neal settle in. Isaacs can be more of a playmaker for others and not have to jack up bad shots like he did with Texas Tech, which will help his shooting numbers improve and allow guys like Ashworth, Miller and Traudt to hit open outside shots. Overall they probably take a step back offensively though, as Scheierman and Alexander were terrific in the halfcourt as scorers and the replacements Neal and Isaacs are just not quite as good. Kalkbrenner being a rim protector inside should continue to make them a top-25 or better team defensively though. They pressure outside to funnel everything into Kalkbrenner who is an elite shot blocker and rarely fouls. That should continue, and even with a slight dip in efficiency offensively I still think an offense with shooters around a big man with this efficiency inside is still top-25 ish good. That creates what should be another top team in the Conference and a contender nationally, especially if Isaacs leans more into creating for his teammates, as I believe a 2 man game with Isaacs and Kalkbrenner could be very difficult to stop with shooters surrounding them. Miller and Traudt need to take more shots as well, as anyone shooting that far north of 40% from 3 need more looks and need to let it fire when they get them. I have a ton of respect for McDermott and truly think by the time Big East play rolls around this group will be playing cohesively and have the best shot of anyone in this Conference to try and take down UConn. The guard play is the biggest question mark, but having a guy like Kalkbrenner inside makes it a lot easier on those guys, so I expect big things from the transfers and subsequently still have high expecations for this group. Top-15 and getting to the 2nd weekend in March should be the expectation.

3.) Marquette (#17)

State of the Program:

I love what Shaka Smart is doing at Marquette, as the old school approach of recruiting and helping develop guys who you then go win with at a high level is disappearing before our eyes. Marquette is just 1 of 2 major conference programs to not bring in a transfer, and joins UConn as the only Big East teams to not lose a player to the portal. Now I’m not wholly against using the portal to improve your team, especially if you have major holes, but there’s something to be said for the cohesion that this brings and the advantage that can give you in today’s college basketball world. It also helps avoid losing guys to the portal, as that often occurs when guys don’t see a role for them after a year or two of sitting because they keep getting passed up by transfers coming in. It is obvious this is the type of situation Smart thrives in, as he can treat it more like VCU than Texas, where he could get more talented FR but they would leave much quicker. Shaka has these guys believing in their process, waiting for their opportunity and is honoring that by allowing these younger guys the opportunity to fill the void left behind by Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro. That’s a massive void however, and while I admire the process and think log term it’s a positive, they have quite a task ahead of them trying to replace those guys. The good news is Kam Jones is back to lead the way, along with other vets David Joplin and Stevie Mitchell. Jones and Mitchell will be joined by a solid group of younger guys in the backcourt with guys like Chase Ross, Tre Norman and Sean Jones all showing promise so far in their young careers. Fairly obvious the backcourt will be fine even with the loss of Kolek, but the frontcourt is where things could get dicey without Ighodaro. Ben Gold is the obvious plug in as the 5, but he’s a bit different than Oso as he’s not quite the rim protector or rebounder but can stretch the floor as a knockdown shooter. Joplin will be the 4, but behind those guys is a void with a bunch of unproven youth. Damarius Owens is a lanky wing who is a good athlete but will probably need some time to develop. It’s likely Royce Parham or Al Amadou backs up Ben Gold, and both are lanky bigs with good athleticism so one of them should emerge as the backup and produce.

Prediction:

I look for the process to continue to take place under Smart here, as he’s done a great job since arriving at developing his guys and he has a star to build around in Kam Jones. Jones should be right there with Kalkbrenner battling for Big East POY, and with a deep group of talent around him I expect another good season here. The one worry you have is obviously on the glass as it could be even more of an issue than it was a year ago (285th OReb, 270th DReb). So with that said there’s probably a step back defensively without that paint presence. On the other end though Gold is going to open the floor up a ton for these guards being able to play 5 out and drive and kick, which could be a bonus to help level out the loss of Kolek. They went 3-3 without Kolek a year ago, but maybe more important to look at was Jones and his increased level of play. He scored 30+ multiple times and nearly doubled his assist numbers, and to be totally fair 2 of the 3 losses were to UConn and the other was @ Creighton, so really they played pretty well without Kolek. There’s a pretty clear top-3 here and while UConn and Creighton look good there’s enough question marks to see a world where Marquette can win the league. Jones can be that good, and if they can find some production around him consistently this team could be very very dangerous. Don’t sleep on Marquette is all I’m saying, and respect to Smart for building a program the old school way.

4.) Xavier (#21)

State of the Program:

Well we head from one extreme to the other as we move from Marquette to Xavier, going from a team with zero transfers and only FR entering the program to zero FR and only transfers coming in. Sean Miller has gone all in on reloading year to year in the transfer portal, and after missing the tourney last year you have to wonder how the up and down nature of that strategy will fair over the long term. The good news is he gets Zach Freemantle back after missing all last season, and Dayvion McKnight is back to lead the offense at the point. With those two to build around you start looking at the portal guys and there are some very solid mid-major transfers that have a chance to have major roles here. Ryan Conwell is a perfect fit as a scorer that shot at an elite level from 3, and right with him is Dante Maddox from Toledo as both were 40%+ from 3 a year ago. Marcus Foster can also really score, and is a little bigger so he could even play a small 3 if they need, but he has been much more inefficient so I would think he falls to 4th on the guard list and that’s not even mentioning now SO Trey Green who had moments last year. Cam’Ron Fletcher appears at another school as the former top-50 prospect lands at his 3rd destination for his 5th season, and while he’s never really grown much he can contribute at the 3 if Miller needs to go bigger there. Inside it’s pretty straightforward with 4 guys who can play the 4/5, with Freemantle leading the way and Jerome Hunter back as a former starter for Miller at the 4. The transfers are interesting though, as John Hugley was a big time player for Pitt back in 2022 averaging nearly 15 and 8. Traore himself averaged a double double last year so there’s tremendous depth there and iron sharpens iron so I expect a strong unit with all 4 guys contributing.

Prediction:

Overall Miller has 12 guys to try and sort out a 9 or 10 man rotation which obviously gives him tremendous depth and flexibility. I don’t question at all who they are going to be, as Miller loves to play fast (31st/33rd tempo last 2 years) and share the ball (top-20 a/fgm). They were pretty inefficient shooting the ball last year and he’ll hope the guard additions help that out, along with the return of Freemantle as someone who they can play through inside. The x-factor is defense, and they’ve improved on that end year over year with Miller, so ultimately we’ll see how well all of these transfers can come together and play team defense. I don’t think they’ll have any problem offensively with all of this guard talent and the big inside, the potential is as high as it’s been. If Freemantle is fully healthy they have an all-conference caliber guy in him as well as with McKnight. I don’t expect them to be contending with the top 3, but with all of this talent I think they have the best shot of the 2nd tier in this conference to be a tourney team. They feel like that 7-10 seed type of team we saw Penn St be a couple years ago with Micah Shrewsberry. A bunch of perimeter guys that can score it and are an electric team to watch because they can drop 80-90 points every game, but just not enough star power and physicality to beat the elite teams. Fun and frisky but ultimately a tourney berth and maybe a round 1 victory would be a success.

5.) Providence (NR)

State of the Program:

I absolutely loved what Kim English did with Providence last year, and while they missed the tourney, the fact they were a bubble team after losing leading scorer Bryce Hopkins midway through the season was very impressive. He came right in and established a culture there and you could see it night in and night out. They were going to grind you down, play harder than you and defend at a high level. They were top-20 defensively, but ultimately just couldn’t score enough without Hopkins. He is back now, and with him are a group of underclassman from a year ago who look to grow under English and also an influx of talent via the transfer portal. Returnee Jayden Pierre is back to run the point after showing a lot of potential in his SO campaign. He’ll battle transfer Bensley Joseph for time there, but after last year I’d expect him to start over Joseph. The 2 and 3 spot will be very deep, with Floyd and Barron back after double digit starts last year and Cardet and Abdur-Rahim transferring in to battle for time. I like Barron to remain in the rotation, as he shot it well from outside and is a physical wing really that can play the 2/3/4 and is versatile defensively. Cardet is a big time scorer and probably comes in as the replacement for Devin Carter, although with Hopkins to play through they don’t need the heroism of Carter this season really. Abdur-Rahim can play either the 3 or 4 as well at 6’7″ so he should certainly play quite a bit as he can score it, even if it’s as a reserve Hopkins and Cardet will need spelled. That leaves the 5 spot, and that’s the weakness of the roster. Oduro was so pivotal for them a year ago but he’s gone, and the replacements are not as proven, although they do have potential. The transfer from St. Joe’s Essandoko is the likely starter, but the 7 footer has only played 25 games in college. He did however make 14 3’s at 37% so that’s intriguing at his size, and he can block shots and rebound well as well. His final game of the season interestingly was an OT loss to Seton Hall in which he had 14 and 8 so proven against the Big East in at least 1 game. The FR Oswin Erhunmwunse is the other option, but he’s young after reclassifying so I would expect him to just be a backup to start. He has elite athleticism at the position, but isn’t going to give much offense unless he’s cutting to or catching it at the rim. He’s raw but has a ton of potential due to his length and bounce, so remember the name for down the road. All in all this is an under the radar talented roster, and with English at the helm I have some excitement.

Prediction:

I fully expect them to play with the same attitude and intensity they did a year ago, and while some of the roster is gone, there’s enough of a group of holdovers that I think that culture sticks around. English is a fiery HC and that has rubbed off on the program which is something I love and can make up for a lack of talent, to a point. Hopkins being healthy and leading the way is huge but the depth of proven scorers is much better than a year ago. They were very bad offensively, just 125th in efficiency on that end, so while they played great defense and played super hard they just couldn’t knock down shots. They were 247th in 3 point shooting, so the additions to the backcourt, all guys who shot 35%+ a year ago make perfect sense. The backcourt will miss Carter, but overall the depth of talent is much better even if the top isn’t quite as good. All of this goes out the window if they aren’t a top defensive team again, but typically that end translates year to year as coaches like English demand that from their guys, and he has the depth to only play the guys willing to dig in and defend. For those reasons I think Providence should be right square in the bubble conversations come February, and with some better injury luck I like the Friars to get in and be in the top half of the Conference. They’re not going to be a championship team, but English has them headed in a good direction and a ticket to the dance would be a great step forward after last year.

6.) St. John’s (NR)

State of the Program:

The Rick Pitino era at St. John’s got off to a rocky start, and at one point they lost 8 of 10 in Big East play. However, they turned a corner to end the season, reeling off 5 in a row to end the season and winning 1 in the Big East tourney before they fell to UConn to end their season. I thought the on the floor product was worthy of being a tourney team but resume wise they just didn’t have enough. Pitino seems to have shifted his approach this year, going with a less is more approach, bringing in just 4 transfers after bringing in 10 last year. The two who should lead the show are Kadary Richmond and Deivon Smith who both have all-conference potential and will lead the way offensively. RJ Lewis came on strong later in the year and earned Pitino’s trust so I’m sure he’ll start alongside those two to start at least. Aaron Scott will also play a role as well, as both can slide to a small ball 4 at 6’7″ and Scott is a much better outside shooter so he certainly has a chance to start as well. Simeon Wilcher was a top-50 recruit a year ago and he and incoming FR Jaiden Glover are great athletes who both have potential to be solid players this year. Glover is a physical specimen and could play the 2 or 3 and shoots it better than Wilcher, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to come in and carve out a role. Inside the 7 foot transfer Iwuchukwu will battle Ejiofor to start inside but combined they should be a decent duo at that spot, although not major offensive contributors like Soriano was a year ago. All in all Pitino has a solid core here that is top heavy with Richmond and Smith, but there’s a decent enough chance that the role guys come together and they are competitive in this Conference.

Prediction:

I like the less is more approach here, as there are less mouths to feed and it shouldn’t be as deep into the season for the Johnnies to establish some lineup consistency and establish an identity. They have clear leaders in the backcourt, and have enough depth to have some battles for playing time at the other spots. I like Glover and Wilcher for the long term, but a guy like Scott could be critical in a small ball lineup to stretch out and hit shots. There’s flexibility, there’s size and shooting ability so there’s at least some hope that if things click right this group can have some success. They were not good defensively last year and I’m sure Pitino was unhappy with that, but that seems to be the nature with these rebuilding teams. Pitino has always liked his teams to get out and run so I don’t expect that to change, but his last 7 years at Louisville they were top-10 defensively, so if any major change is to occur it’s that he gets this year’s group to look much better on that end of the floor. He has the length and athleticism to make it happen, so even if there’s a slight dip offensively I wouldn’t be shocked to see them near the top-25 on D. If that happens and Richmond and Smith click as a backcourt duo there’s no reason they can’t be a tourney team and knock off the big boys in a rowdy Garden. It’s certainly not guaranteed, but give Pitino talent and he can do great things so I still set the bar at finding a way to get into the tourney, even though they fell short last year.

7.) Villanova (NR)

State of the Program:

Kyle Neptune turned in another disappointing season as the successor to Jay Wright after he lead the Wildcats to 17 out of 18 tourney’s before retiring. Obviously, the pressure on Neptune to get this train back on the tracks is as high as it’ll be, and I would think that another missed tourney gets him canned. So, what does he have to work with heading into a pivotal season? It’s uninspiring to say the least. The good news is big man Eric Dixon is back, but outside of him it’s just Jordan Longino back with significant experience. So after last year’s attempt to load up in the transfer portal with talented guys like Burton/Bamba/Hart and having more returning talent and it blowing up, he now has to try and portal his way to success again. He did pick up a trio of guards who should be able to come in and contribute, with Brooks/Poplar/Perkins all averaging 13+ ppg and all shooting it well from 3. Pairing those 3 with Longino you formulate a solid backcourt, but by no means star studded. Kris Parker at the wing is an interesting prospect after redshirting at Alabama he’ll try and get time at the 3/4 and he’s a very good athlete. The other factor there will be FR Matthew Hodge who has a little Sam Dekker in him and certainly is built physically to come in and contribute. The Fresno St transfer Boakye will fight to backup Dixon, but he’ll have strong competition with FR Josiah Moseley who has a lot of potential. He’s built like an undersized bruiser in the Collin Murray-Boyles mold but has guard skills that make him a potential stretch 4 man that can also punish smaller defenders on the block. There is some legitimate potential here on the roster but most of the roster outside of Dixon and Poplar have a lot to prove at this level.

Prediction:

Last year I was fooled by all the talent without recognizing the severe drop off here in coaching. Neptune does not seem to have it, and it’s usually pretty clear when someone does or doesn’t, see Kim English at Providence who had a much better season with much less talent. Now, we’re going to still be a little gracious and assume the group he brought in just didn’t fit or gel (that’s partly on him). Maybe he can get this year’s to play better together, but I still think talent wise they are lacking. Dixon is obviously good, but they are relying on La Salle transfer PG Jahmir Brooks to lead the show and be the main playmaker on offense. That’s worrisome, and while they have Dixon to play through inside he’s not much of a setup man out of the post so there’s a ton of pressure on Brooks or even Bulgarian FR Aleksandar Gavalyugov, who looks like he could excel operating in ball screen actions with Dixon. Still, there’s a ton of unanswered questions, and while they were top-15 defensively with all the talent leaving it could get even worse offensively than their 87th ranking a year ago. Ultimately, I don’t have a ton of hope for this roster, with a tourney berth being very much a success which is a major step backward for this program if that’s a goal as it used to be the standard. Neptune is one of the top candidates for early season firing, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the first major conference coach to get the axe this year.

8.) Seton Hall (NR)

State of the Program:

Seton Hall was one of a couple teams who I thought was playing tourney worthy ball at the end of last year but was snubbed out of the tourney. They went on to win the NIT to somewhat confirm that, but we enter this year with a mass exodus from last year’s roster, with just two guys back and a host of transfers coming in to try and replace what was. This is where we start to drop off in terms of roster talent in the Conference, as I would really be shocked if Holloway is able to get this roster anywhere near the bubble. He gets back starter Addae–Wusu and promising SO Isaiah Coleman off a good FR campaign in which he showed flashes. He did bring in some interesting prospects, including Ohio State’s Scotty Middleton and Providence guard Garwey Dual who were both top-50 recruits and have several years of eligibility left. In fact, all but 1 of these transfers has multiple years of eligibility remaining, so it looks like Holloway has the future in mind as he attempts to create some year over year stability if he can get these guys to buy in and stay on campus. That’s really the challenge for some of these smaller programs, as anybody that shows a little promise is going to be fielding lucrative offers from bigger schools in the offseason. He was able to sell the idea of playing time to guys like Middleton/Dual/Aligbe/Yalden, but what happens when that playing time leads to a breakout? Getting them to produce and have success while also sticking around for another year is the challenge.

Prediction:

It’s going to be a step back most likely for Seton Hall this year, but they will still have winnable games with Georgetown and DePaul in the Conference, and with how good they’ve been defensively under Holloway that should allow them to scrap out enough wins to stay out of the bottom. I just don’t see in year 1 with this new group a ton of major success, but my hope if I was Holloway would be to get the guys like Middleton/Dual/Aligbe and so on to stick around for another year, supplement with even more talent around them next year and be ready to contend at the top. It also could be that with expanded opportunity those guys blossom and take huge strides forward and they can compete, there’s just a lot of unproven talent they need to produce for me to believe in that happening. They’ll still be scrappy on defense, but the other end of the floor is likely to still be a struggle, especially without a proven guy they can play through like they had a year ago in Kadary Richmond. I do like Holloway, I just think in this new landscape he’s scrapping and clawing to just field a competitive team. It’s a tough world out there, but if he can just hold on he could have some real talent here next year if they develop this year and stick around, so it’s not all bad.

9.) Butler (NR)

State of the Program:

Butler is in a similar scenario as Seton Hall, as they looked good enough to be a tourney team a year ago at one point (16-8 on Feb 11th), but lost 5 straight after that and it was too much damage done to get in. Now they’ve lost 3 key components of that team and the transfer portal is a slog for these small schools without football money. Thad Matta and this group took a big step forward in year 2, going from 119th to 61st per Kenpom year over year and were better in almost every statistical category. They also get Pierre Brooks and Jahmyl Telfort back who were their leading scorers and backup big man Andre Screen is back to slide in as the starting 5 as well so there is some experience coming back to bring some cohesion. That’s the 3-5 starting spots, and they’ll probably all play 30+ minutes, the questions come and the 1 and 2 spots replacing Davis and Alexander. Returnees Finley Bizjack and Landon Moore were young guys who showed flashes last year with Moore the more natural fit at the 1. He’ll battle transfer Kolby King there, but neither have proven to be playmakers so the offense probably will just go through Telfort for the most part. King shot 38% from 3 so I’d expect him to have a major role even if it’s not starting. McCaffery and Kaiser come in as depth guys, as they should backup Brooks and Telfort and they could even play big with Telfort at the 2 if one of those 2 guys plays well, but neither shoot it well so I’m not sure how they’ll fit in. The FR probably sit this year for the most part as they likely make 10 and 11 on the roster but Langdon does have some promise at his size. He has a nice looking shot and is physical enough to play the 3/4. Doesn’t look like a star but could be a productive player down the road.

Prediction:

Thad can obviously coach at a high level, but he is not working with an exorbitant amount of talent here by any stretch. He will likely get more out of this roster than most, but with just a point forward style guy in Telfort and a spot up shooter in Brooks as your main 2 guys it’s hard to get overly excited about. The optimistic view would be to look at the young guys on the roster like Bizjack/Moore/Kapke and think they can take a big step forward and play much better around those 2. I worry about who creates for them offensively, and an even bigger worry is their 76th rank defensively a year ago. The only positive on that end is they didn’t foul, but that really just tells me they didn’t play very physically and teams were able to kind of do what they wanted on that end. They were 250th in forcing TO’s and middle of the pack in cleaning up the glass and lost their starting 5 man. I think those problems could just magnify, maybe they get better on D, but the nucleus is still the same so the nature of the team remains mostly the same. We’ll see how it goes, but even as someone from Indiana who wants Butler to be good again I’m just feeling uninspired by this roster, and at the end of the day good coaching can only make up for some much of a talent gap. Needless to say I do not expect big things from Butler this year.

10.) DePaul (NR)

State of the Program:

Allow me to try and paint a picture of just how pathetically bad of a situation Chris Holtmann is coming into by coming to DePaul. The Blue Demons have not been to the NCAA tourney since their C-USA days back in 2004. In fact, since coming to the Big East in 2006 they have more seasons with 0 conference wins (’09 — 0-18, ’24 — 0-20) than seasons above .500 in conference play (’07 — 9-7). On one hand it feels like an insurmountable mountain to try and bring them back to relevance, but on the other hand for Holtmann it’s likely going to be refreshing to not have massive expectations like he’s had at Ohio St. It’s a full reset, and all he has to do a Conference game and more than 4 games overall to have taken a step forward. This is 1 of just 2 teams to not have 1 single guy returning (shoutout Louisville), so we’re seeing a transfer portal rebuild at the extreme. I’m not going to breakdown all 12 newcomers, but I’ll point out some trends or interesting guys to look for. I’ll start with a younger guy who have a chance to pop in Layden Blocker from Arkansas. He was a top-50 recruit that should have ample opportunity to show what he’s got after sitting at Arkansas for the most part a year ago. I watched NJ Benson one time last year at Missouri St in a loss to Indiana St in the Horizon tourney and he was a joy to watch, blocking 5 shots and posting a double double with 12 and 10. He’s a high motor guy that I would expect to see wreaking havoc this year. Holtmann found a bunch of elite shooters from outside as well, with Meyer/Rivera/Skogman/Thomas/Enright all shooting 40%+ from 3 a year ago. All things considered, a new coach and coming off an 0-20 conference season, there’s a good amount of talent to work with here.

Prediction:

It’s a hodge-podge group but they should be able to shoot and if Holtmann can get them playing scrappy D they might be able to win not 1 but even 2 conference games this year. Yes I said it. I do believe in Holtmann as a coach, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him get them competitive in a couple years. He could be similar to Shaka Smart in terms of excelling where he can develop lower rated recruits in a smaller school environment vs having the pressure of the big school. He excelled at Butler, like Smart at VCU, but it never really clicked with the Buckeyes (similar to Smart at Texas). Don’t be shocked if DePaul is all of a sudden someone to at least pay attention to by year 3, but year 1 I do not have any sort of expectations other than they win at least 1 Big East game. Bold prediction I know, but the fact that a 2-18 conference record would actually be a step forward tells the whole story.

11.) Georgetown (NR)

State of the Program:

This is a weird situation after Georgetown poached Cooley from Providence despite him looking for so long like a guy who would retire there. He now is in a very difficult situation with a storied program that should be much better than they are. They won just 2 Conference games last year and have just 4 Big East wins over the last 3 seasons (2 of which with Patrick Ewing). There’s no momentum and they get just 2 guys back, which after last season maybe that’s some addition by subtraction. Jayden Epps was their best scorer and creator and he’s back, and he’ll be joined by transfer guard Malik Mack who should allow Epps to slide to the off-guard position. Micah Peavy should come right in and start at the 3 and then the front court is going to be wide open. Jordan Burks was a good recruit but didn’t play much at Kentucky, and at 6’9″ can play the 4 or 5. FR Thomas Sorber is the most promising guy long term on the roster, as he’s a great athlete and has a natural feel for the game. He reminds you a little bit of Trayce Jackson-Davis, as he loves to face up and use his quickness to attack, plays well above the rim and is a great rim protector. Kayvaun Mulready is the other FR that figures to contribute right away as he can score at all 3 levels and has good size for a guard. He’s not the most explosive athlete but can shoot it and get to the rim. Ultimately there is some real talent here, but that was the case last year so allow me some trepidation.

Prediction:

My concern here is culture and defense. As a program they haven’t won in recent memory, and I understand these kids coming into the program weren’t a part of that losing but it’s undoubtedly palpable. When your home arena is half empty, when your expectation is to just win 5 or 6 conference games, when your HC might be on the hot seat in just year 2, you surely can feel it. Last year they were 321st in defensive efficiency, which for a high major team that’s just pathetic. Maybe beyond pathetic. It speaks to Cooley not getting his guys to buy in, because even coaches like Fran McCaffery who don’t emphasize defense will never turn in a season that bad. In fact, it was the worst statistical season on the defensive end of the floor in Cooley’s long HC career, including his years at Fairfield, yes Fairfield. Now, he hasn’t often had elite defensive teams, but his last year at Fairfield they were top-20 and his last 11 years at Providence they were top-100. 321st, again, is beyond pathetic. That’s why they’re here, do they have talent? Yes. But it doesn’t do you much good if you can score 80 ppg if you’re giving up 90. Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard, as cliché as it is it is the truth and played out perfectly a season ago at Georgetown. Until proven otherwise, I’ll assume it continues.