Pre-Season Prediction:

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1.) Indiana (#8)

State of the Program:

Mike Woodson is now entering year 4 with the Hoosiers and has yet to elevate this program back to the level the fanbase expects. That leads you to believe the seat is getting a little warm, as he’s on the heels of a disappointing year where they missed the tourney for the first time in his tenure, not to mention the previous 2 trips they failed to get out of the 1st weekend. In fact, this is a program that hasn’t seen the 2nd weekend since 2016 under Tom Crean, who they ran out of town for failing to live up to the lofty expectations the fanbase has held since the days of Bob Knight. Having said all of that, this might be the most talented roster to enter a season since that 2016 team that went 15-3 in the Big 10, hence their position in my prediction. They return several key pieces that figure to continue to develop in Malik Reneau and Mackenzie Mgbako, veteran Trey Galloway, and role guys Gabe Cupps and Anthony Leal. But the real excitement comes from what Woodson was able to do in the transfer portal, which on paper provides 3 immediate high level contributors with a couple more that have a chance to carve out a role. Oumar Ballo should come right in and start at the 5 alongside Reneau in the frontcourt, with Mgbako at the 3. Behind them is an exciting addition in FR Bryson Tucker, as the top-20 recruit at 6’7″ has the length and scoring ability to come right in and contribute. He is a gifted shooter from 3, with a high and quick release that should translate well, but he also has a mid-post game that allows him to score 1-on-1 in impressive fashion for someone his age. Dare I compare his post fade to LeBron? I won’t, but he’s clearly a Bron fan I’ll say that. The additions of Myles Rice and Kanaan Carlyle are going to be pivotal, as both are coming off of stand out FR campaigns and look to battle it out with Galloway for starting spots at the 1-2. They both were a bit inconsistent and inefficient as scorers, but that comes with the territory with FR, so we should see both settle in with better percentages, especially from 3 which is desperately needed here. It gives Woodson more options than he had a year ago, especially in the backcourt which was a huge weakness for the Hoosiers last year. If you’re an IU fan this is a year where the talent may actually come close to matching the expectations.

Prediction:

The influx of talent is obvious, but it’s a match made in heaven with Woodson, who has now built up a reputation as a HC that wants to get the ball inside and play from the paint offensively. The Hoosiers have ranked 6th and 4th the last two years in % of points coming from 2’s. You may think, well that’s likely because they couldn’t shoot from outside, and while that’s true of last year’s team, just 32% (255th), the 2023 team was the 4th ranked group inside and shot almost 37% from 3, good for a top-40 ranking. It’s obvious what his emphasis is, play inside out, and even allow guys to operate in the midrange and he’ll have the talent this year to dominate those areas once again. All of this means the inevitable high expectations that will be placed on this team are actually warranted this year, so the pressure is both on the players to perform and also Woodson to get them all to buy in and play hard consistently. That has been the bugaboo for this program during his time here, as the biggest criticism of his past teams would be not showing up night in and night out. See the sweep by lowly Penn St last year as prime examples. They should dominate the paint and the glass, and have the athletes to be a good defensive team, but a lot of that will come via consistent effort. If they don’t reach this level of success, that will almost assuredly be why. If everything comes together though this team has an Elite 8 to Final 4 run as its ceiling, and should be battling for a Big 10 championship down the stretch. Gear up Hoosier fans it’s going to be a fun one…or another massive disappointment that causes yet another HC firing. Either way, enjoy the ride.

2.) UCLA (#12)

State of the Program:

The Mick Cronin era at UCLA has been largely a success, with 3 trips to the tourney in the 4 chances he’s had, resulting in a Final 4 run and 2 Sweet 16’s. Pretty damn good, but last year was the first bit of turbulence we’ve seen as it never really came together for what was an extremely young group. It appears Cronin is making a bit of a pivot, as last years roster included 7 top-100 FR and just 4 upper classmen, and it showed. This year he’s gone to the transfer portal to boost the talent level, with just 2 FR incoming. I think the days of bringing in large FR groups and competing right away are a thing of the past (unless you’re Duke), and the veteran transfers are becoming more and more valuable, and to Cronin’s credit, he’s adapting. He has some really talented returnees from last year’s group with double digit scorers Dylan Andrews, Sebastian Mack and Lazar Stefanovic all back in the backcourt. Mack is joined by 3 others from last years class to stick around as well, with Aday Mara and Brandon and Devin Williams all back to try and make a SO jump. However, after the disappointment of last season nobody’s role is safe, nobody should feel comfortable. There are legitimately multiple guys who can be a starter at each position, so let’s dive into it. In the backcourt it’s Andrews and Mack, guys who led the team in scoring but in a rather inefficient way who will battle with Skyy Clark from Louisville, who is likely the most suited guy at PG on the roster, albeit far from a pass first kind of player. He is a gifted scorer and shot better from 3 than either Andrews or Mack, so he should figure to fight for that spot if he can defend up to Cronin’s standards. Next is Gonzaga–>LMU transfer Dominick Harris, who shot a blistering 45% from 3 last year in his breakout year after seeing limited minutes with the Zags years prior. Lastly, there’s incoming top-30 FR Trent Perry, who at 6’4″ has great length for a PG and is a gifted shooter. He’s not the quickest or most explosive, so he may need a year with Cronin to break through, especially given all this talent in the backcourt. The 3 spot is equally as important, and Cronin brought in some competition there as well for returning starter Stefanovic to contend with. Kobe Johnson should play a role, and given his size and rebounding ability should get minutes whether as starter or backup, he just isn’t quite the shooter that Stefanovic is. The 4 and 5 spots are a complete toss up, with returning guys Mara and Williams both having started occasionally there last year but incoming transfers Tyler Bilodeau, William Kyle III and Eric Dailey Jr will all be battling them for minutes. Iron sharpens iron clearly the motto here.

Prediction:

Now we take a breath, and simply state that the talent level here is obviously far greater than a year ago. The question mark comes with how it’ll all come together and if Cronin can create a cohesive locker room with so many mouths to feed. He is a demanding coach, and just missed his first tourney since 2010 with Cincy, so the reaction to load up on talent like this is no surprise. We should expect much better play offensively, and after the worst season for a Cronin team on that end since ’08 in Cincy, that’s not exactly a difficult mark to reach. They were a disgusting 324th in effective FG% last year, so the addition of 5 double digit scorers is both unsurprising and critical. If he can get them up to his standards defensively then the Bruins will become dangerous. I’m betting on Cronin and his coaching ability here, as these transfers had to know what they were getting themselves into, and with all the depth he can afford a guy or 2 to not buy in and find themselves glued to the bench. I think the ceiling here is Conference champs in year 1 in the Big 10 for Cronin, and while they may not get it done there’s really no obvious elite teams in the league this year. With a strong defensive unit and improved shot making there’s no reason they won’t find themselves at least near the top of the league. I will recognize the very real chance the portal guys don’t buy in and we get just an average team, but my money is on Cronin not letting that happen. It is a boom or bust bet, but I’ll take the proven HC with consistent defensive dominance every time.

3.) Purdue (#18)

State of the Program:

Purdue and Matt Painter finally got the March monkey off their backs last year, achieving the March success that has evaded them for decades. A repeat as Big Ten champs, the NPOY and a dominant run to the National Championship game undoubtedly brings a giant sigh of relief for HC Matt Painter and the program. While losing to UConn kept it from being a total dream season, that wasn’t a hang your head loss as UConn was as good a championship team as we’ve seen in some time. So, they now enter the post-Edey era in West Lafayette with a whole new crop of young guys needing to elevate their play to make up for that massive loss. The thing you can hang your hat on with Painter and this program is sticking with what they do, and that’s bring in FR and help them develop into solid Big Ten basketball players. In fact, they are 1 of just 2 high major teams who didn’t bring in a transfer, shoutout Marquette, so the commitment to what is now an old school approach is fascinating. Whether or not it is the best strategy, or even doable at other places is an argument for another time, what I can say with certainty is it’s still working at Purdue, and the variation in approach across the sport just adds another layer of complexity and strategy, something that differentiates college hoops from the copycat styles of the NBA. With that being said, the roster is full of guys ready to emerge this season with all the production needing replaced, and none are more exciting than the duo of Cam Heide and Myles Colvin, both electric athletes that showed flashes in their FR campaigns last year. They will bring a level of athleticism that we don’t often see at Purdue, but more importantly they are gifted shooters, with both shooting over 40% from 3 last season. Also joining this talented backcourt this year is incoming FR Gicarri Harris, who is a strong athlete that’s ready right away to contend with Big 10 guards. He scores well at the rim and shoots it well from outside as well, but his true calling card is on defense, as he has a high motor and plays with physicality. He has a promising future and even started the scrimmage so it looks like he’s going to have a major role right out of the gates. The real question is inside and how they’ll fill the Edey void. They’ll turn to returnees TKR, Furst and Berg as well as rising FR Daniel Jacobsen. TKR will man 1 spot, and should see an uptick in usage and production. We know who Furst is, but the mystery lies in Berg, who at 7’2″ fits the Purdue big man mold, but with such limited play over the last 2 years we just have no idea how good he will be. Then there’s the incoming FR Jacobsen who has made some noise, mostly due to his 7’3″ frame and mobility at his size. He played well with the U18 team and has gotten some National attention for it, but I do worry about his thin frame and overall clunkiness in the post at this young of an age to come in as a true FR and overtake Furst and Berg.

Prediction:

Clearly, there’s not a lack of options for Painter this year, as he has 13 scholarship guys entering the season, all licking their chops at the chance to replace the 44 ppg that are gone from last year’s runner-up team. I have the Boilers finishing this high because of a trust in the system Painter has put in place to develop talent in house. From AJ Hammons, Caleb Swanigan, Isaac Haas, Trevion Williams to Zach Edey, Painter has built consistently good teams year over year despite losing his previous centerpiece inside. The development is always occurring, and while I don’t expect any of the bigs on the roster to score 25 ppg like Edey did, they’re going to step up and be productive like those before them. Then there’s the excitement for the young wings Heide and Colvin, who both have potential to be 10-15 ppg guys to help out Smith and Loyer in making up for the lost production. I also think they have a chance to be a better defensive unit, as they will be more versatile with a TKR and Furst frontcourt, or even a TKR and Heide frontcourt if they go small as they could switch everything and ramp up the pressure without Edey, who they had to play a specific style defensively for (drop coverage, keeping Edey from getting exposed or in fouling situations). What keeps me from putting them higher is the question marks inside, especially when it comes to the glass as well as defending the paint. I still expect to see a heavy dose of ballscreen action with Smith running the show on offense, but the easy lobs to Edey are gone, which could tighten the shooting windows for the surrounding cast. In other words, gone are the days where wings would squeeze down on Edey, or double the post, so you’re forcing Smith to beat you in the midrange/at the rim or Furst/Berg/Jacobsen to reliably catch and make a play. A Big 10 3-peat may rest in the hands of Trey Kaufman-Renn, as a breakout from him and a jump to 15 ppg level production could make them very dangerous. It’s just hard for me to imagine he is as efficient as that would require, and I imagine teams are going to be comfortable letting him go one-on-one in the post. We’ll see how it plays out. While it may not be Final 4 or bust like last year, expectations should still be high for the Boilers, and a Big 10 3-peat is certainly possible if everything goes perfectly.

4.) Michigan St (#20)

State of the Program:

It’s the beginning of a new era of sorts for Izzo and co. as a group exits the program after years of never quite living up to the hype. The likes of Hoggard, Hall, Sissoko and Walker went four years of entering the season with major hype and never winning more than 11 games in conference and no better than a 7 seed in the dance, which by Izzo standards is a disappointing stretch. He has broken through to the Final Four with almost every major recruiting class he’s had, dating back to runs with Morris Peterson (2000), Alan Anderson (’05), Draymond/Lucas (’09-’10), Denzel Valentine (’15) and Cassius Winston (’19). Those guys were leaders among that era’s group of guys that came in, developed and eventually went on their run to the Final 4. This last group never saw such a run, so Izzo will once again try and develop another young group, all the while this old school way of doing things becomes more and more castigated. Izzo will of course remain steadfast regardless, and with last year’s group of FR returning in Booker, Fears and Carr as top-50 recruits, joined by this year’s 2 top-50 guys he has the young horses to go for it with another group for what may be his final few years at the helm. Overall Sparty returns 7 guys from last year including Jaden Akins who averaged double figures and should start this season in the backcourt. Fears and Tre Holloman should also join that backcourt rotation along with exciting FR Jase Richardson. The 6’2″ G is a lanky, quick twitch guard who loves to get downhill and finish at the rim. He reminds you of a young De’Aaron Fox, with a wiry frame and smooth handles, he can be a lethal scorer if his jumper comes along, but already has a great ability to beat defenders off the bounce and finish in the paint. The other FR who figures to find a role is Kur Teng, who at 6’4″ with his strength could play the 2 or 3 just like Akins. He is a smooth scorer of the ball, mostly as a catch and shoot guy though as opposed to Richardson who can create for himself and others. Then there’s the Malik Hall replacement in transfer Frankie Fidler. Although not quite as physically imposing as hall, Fidler was one of the best mid-major scorers in the country last year. He most likely will play the small ball 4 spot, but Izzo has the depth in the frontcourt to play big as well with Fidler or Coen Carr at the 3. The frontcourt is all about development, as the same rotation of Booker/Cooper/Kohler will be battling for minutes at the 5 and even the 4.

Prediction:

I believe in Izzo and his ability to develop the young talent he’s brought in to replace the major pieces that left. That’s the bottom line, and the talent is obviously there in terms of potential, with 7 top-50 recruits on the roster and several other top-100. I love Fears to slot into the starting PG role, as he averaged 3.3 assists last year off the bench and is the best creator they have for others in the half-court. He alongside Holloman, who quietly shot 43% from 3 last year and Akins (career 38% from 3) I think this backcourt can actually end up being a strength. Fidler needs to come in and be a 12-15 ppg guy and the group of Carr/Booker/Cooper need to improve inside, especially on the glass. Izzo’s teams have always been really good rebounding teams and that has not been true over the past few seasons, and while they were top-10 defensively a year ago the rebounding was a real problem (153rd DREB). It’ll surely be an emphasis, and I would expect an improvement there. Their length and athleticism should allow them to be top-10 defensively again, it’s a matter of improving offensively and frankly that could be an issue again. If there’s another year of struggle that will be the cause, but I’m going to bet on these young guys to inject a level of athleticism that allows for more easy buckets in transition and we see Sparty be pretty fun this year. I don’t think expecting them to win the league is smart, but in a transition year I think they should find their way into the tournament, especially with Izzo leading the way. I, for one, am going to sit back and enjoy watching an all-time great try and do it one last time, as Izzo is one of the last of the old school coaches whose fire and passion helped draw me to the sport.

5.) Rutgers (#23)

State of the Program:

We’ve become accustomed to Steve Pikiell coached teams looking a certain way, horrific offensively but lockdown defensively with a grind it out mentality that tested every Big Ten teams resolve. It hasn’t really manifested much postseason success though, with just 1 tourney win in 8 seasons, albeit still a big step forward from the basement dwelling days that preceded him. Pikiell has addressed the major issues that have plagued Rutgers on the offensive end in about as dramatic a way as you can, and as shocking as it may sound the Scarlet Knights might have the most exciting group of newcomers the Big Ten has to offer. Every sane person who pays attention to college hoops would say expectations for this team should be higher than they’ve ever been, but it is going to look far different than we’ve seen in the past, with a likely smaller, more athletic lineup than we’ve ever seen. Dare I say watching Rutgers may actually be an enjoyable experience this season? It would be silly to not start with the obvious here, so let’s talk about the two 5-Star Freshmen taking Rutgers by storm. First is 2nd ranked Ace Bailey, a 6’8″ wing who can play the 3 or 4, and likely will be the 4 given this roster construction. He is a freak athlete that is deadly in transition as well as on the downhill attack in the half-court. His jumper shows promise, but in his likely lone year at Rutgers he is going to be a menace at the rim on both ends of the floor. Next is 6’5″ G Dylan Harper, brother of former Scarlet Knight Ron Harper Jr, who figures to come right in and be the leading playmaker for this Rutgers team. He’s not the explosive athlete that Bailey is but he’s a true 3 level scorer, who on top of his ability to put the ball in the net is a plus passer and a willing passer as well. His ability to create in the half-court, and hopefully orchestrate in transition, is going to be a welcome change of style for this Rutgers program. Those two have to come in and start, and Jeremiah Williams should join them after his breakout a year ago. He will battle incoming transfers Tyson Acuff and Jordan Derkack though, both of whom can really score as well. They also have rotational pieces that shot 40% from 3 in Hayes and Martini transferring in that can help off the bench. That leaves the 5 spot, and that’s where it gets murky. The loss of Omoruyi is what kept Rutgers at 5th and not higher, as there’s not a lot of meat on this roster inside. They have returning role player Emmanuel Ogbole, who at 6’11” is the obvious fit, but FR Lathan Sommerville is an interesting prospect to watch. Although he’s a bit undersized he plays bigger than his height, and despite a lack of explosiveness as an athlete he has craft to his game and good touch inside to go along with a high motor.

Prediction:

I don’t know exactly how this is going to play out of course, but one thing I know is it’s going to be electric either way. Any time you pair 2 elite prospects together like this it’s going to be must watch TV, and the other scoring options on the team make for a roster we’ve never seen at Rutgers before. It should be a far cry from the Rutgers teams from the past, but as exciting as it should be there is a real weakness for this roster in the paint. I think they will try to use it to their advantage as much as they can, with high pressure on D, switching everything and looking to force turnovers and get out in transition. Will it be enough to make up for the almost certain deficit on the boards? I’m not sure, and that’s what holds me back despite my excitement to watch this young team. If Omoruyi stays, this group could win the Big 10, but without a force inside I think they have a very watchable 4th-6th place finish in the league. There is also the slight chance Pikiell doesn’t actually adapt his style and tries to force his new thoroughbreds to walk it up the court and play in the half-court. I think he’s too smart a coach for that though. While I have them ranked in the top-25 it may take a little while for that to actually come to fruition, but I fully expect these 2 FR to come out swinging and with the talent added via the transfer portal as well there is no reason this team isn’t competing near the top of the Conference and finding their way into the Dance come March. So here’s to turning a new page at Rutgers and here’s to that culminating in the best season in recent memory.

6.) Oregon (NR)

State of the Program:

Dana Altman and the Ducks enter the Big Ten as one of the best programs the PAC-12 had to offer, going above .500 in conference play each of the last 13 seasons. Altman is one of the more underrated coaches in the country, and again maintained his perfect record in the first round of the NCAA tourney as Oregon’s HC, moving to an astounding 8-0 in round 1 games in the NCAA tournament. Please take a second to recognize how ridiculously impressive it is to do that. Okay, onward. The Ducks relied on a very good duo of Dante and Couisnard a year ago who are both gone, but the mix of returning talent and incoming talent should have Altman and co. right in the tournament mix once again. The returnees in the backcourt include standout FR Shelstad and Tracey who are back for SO jumps as well as vet Barthelemy, with Shelstad likely to start and lead the way after an outstanding FR campaign. Transfers Bamba and Moss both figure to start as well after averaging double figures scoring at their previous schools, making a strong trio in the backcourt. The last of the rotation in the 1-3 spots will be FR Jamari Phillips, who is an elite shooter of the basketball, with a smooth jumper and the athleticism to come right in and contribute. Inside there’s another strong rotation, with returning 7 footer Nate Bittle and former 5-star Kwame Evans Jr back for his SO year. Those two along with transfer bruiser Supreme Cook and scoring PF Brandon Angel give the Ducks plenty of punch inside. Of course there’s also former top-50 recruit Mookie Cook who is back and could develop into a solid rotational guy at the 3/4 spots. That’s a very talented group of 11 right there, and while not all of them will be able to have a seat at the table, having this much talent with a HC like Altman make it pretty clear that the Ducks are going to be a tough team in year 1 in the Big 10.

Prediction:

While the talent is there to compete at the top of the conference, I held them back here in the 2nd tier of teams for a few reasons. The first of which is the lack of depth inside, with just Bittle back as a true 5 man. While he’s super talented, he has battled injuries his entire career, if he goes down they are down to just Supreme Cook as their main big inside, with Angel and Evans more suited as stretch 4’s. They’ll likely be forced to play Cook at the 5 often this season, but if he’s all they have that could get ugly in the Big Ten, especially on the glass. The 2nd reason is playmaking, as they don’t really have a true creator on the roster, with Moss and Shelstad being the closest things to it. They still both like to score first, and without a dominant back to the basket big man you start to wonder what their half court offense looks like. You could have a Villanova type situation from a year ago, where you have 5 guys that can score individually, but it leads to a lot of standing around and watching guys go 1-on-1 in the halfcourt. They were also atrocious defensively a year ago, which you can get away with in a less competitive Pac-12, but in the Big Ten if you don’t bring physicality on that end it can get ugly quick, just ask Michigan, who brought in talented transfers last year and were toilet paper soft, leading to a 3-17 Big Ten record. With all of that said I still believe in Altman and what he can do with talent. It’s not always done the same with him, as he’s won with elite defensive teams and elite offensive teams that struggle on the opposite end. He plays to his roster’s strengths rather than forcing the roster into a specific mold. See the range in tempo from as fast as 37th with a team that went to the Sweet 16 all the way down to 328th, again reaching the Sweet 16. I trust his ability to adjust to his team and take this talent and put them in the right position to win games and compete for a tourney berth (reaching 9-0 in Round 1?). We’ll see if moving to the Big Ten has any impact on that, but my expectation for Altman remains the same until I see otherwise.

7.) Illinois

State of the Program:

Brad Underwood has gotten this Illini program back in a position of power in the Big 10 over the last 4 seasons, going 56-24 in Conference (1 co-championship and 2 runner up finishes), making 4 straight NCAA tourney’s and finally getting a breakthrough in the dance a year ago with a trip to the Elite 8. That is a run that you would expect to yield some real roster strength and a ton of returning talent, but that is not what we’re seeing entering this season. 10 players have left the program, with 6 by way of transfer, which is quite surprising for a program that’s experiencing success over a sustained period. Nevertheless it’s the reality, and Underwood is now tasked with rebuilding essentially the entire roster, with just 8 ppg returning from last year’s group it’s a new chapter for he and the Illini. Of course, just as the transfer portal taketh, it can also giveth, or something like that, and Underwood has brought in some intriguing talent, most notably PG Kylan Boswell and W Tre White. Those 2 are going to have to lead the show as they are really the only 2 proven producers at the power Conference level, but neither have ever been a number 1 option. The wildcards are the Europeans. We’ll start with big man from Croatia Tomislav Ivisic, who at 7’1″ looks to have a game similar to current star in college hoops Hunter Dickinson. He has a good post up game, with a hook shot to either hand, but can also stretch out and hit 3’s. He’s not a physical bruiser or some sort of elite rim protector, but in the Dickinson vein has the potential to be a high volume producer at the 5 spot. The other is Kasparas Jakucionis who is a sharpshooting guard that has everyone excited. He’s not only a shooter as he can get to the bucket and finish with the best of them, but I’m interested to see how it translates to this level, as he’s not the most athletic and his shot is also pretty slow, but he should definitely play and be a shooting threat, even if he’s a liability on D. There’s also the incoming FR, with Morez Johnson being a little less of a natural pairing with Ivisic, as he is an undersized back to the basket guy himself. I would expect Will Riley to have more potential to play a significant role, as at 6’8″ he can handle the ball like a guard and score at all 3 levels. He has a wiry frame and a game that lacks fundamentals, or any sort of predictability, but resembles something you’d see from the guy at the local park that dominates everyone in the most unorthodox way you can picture. I’m not sure how that shot selection will translate, but he does have sky high potential with his ability to simply get buckets at his size. We know Rogers and he’ll surely have a role, as well as Gibbs-Lawhorn who was playing more and more as the season went on last year. With guys like Carey Booth at 6’10” and lanky, and Humrichous as a stretch 4 Underwood has options to play several types of lineups, whether he wants to go big or surround the big Croatian with 4 shooters and play inside out with him. It’s an intriguing rebuild, but one that has a lot riding on unproven talent, so it’s risky to really believe it’s all just going to come together and produce efficiently enough to compete in a deep and competitive conference.

Prediction:

Many people have the Illini higher than this in the predictions, and while 7th sounds pretty unpalatable, it’s still in the upper half of an 18 team conference. I think any of these middle teams could end up at the top of this tier, but they all have major question marks and they certainly can’t all have good seasons. Best case scenario for the Illini is Ivisic comes right in and can be a 12 and 8 guy at the 5 spot and really be a problem for Big 10 bigs to defend. That would allow for a surrounding cast of shooters like Boswell/G-Lawhorn/White/Jakucionis/Humrichous to play inside out and knock down open looks as defenses double/dig on the big man. Worse case is he’s not quite ready, especially on defense and the glass. If he can’t produce and they struggle defensively with the slower big man presenting challenges then they’ll have to pivot inside. So hey, maybe they just play small in that scenario with Booth and Humrichous, but I’m not sure what that does to them offensively as Booth is really only effective at the rim and Humrichous is more of a perimeter stretch 4. So, that puts a ton of pressure on Boswell and White to carry the load, something neither has done in their career to this point. This is one that a few games into the season it’s going to become much more clear once we see what direction Underwood is going and what identity he is trying to establish with this roster. He’s had a dominant big before with Kockburn, but last year played small, so he’s willing to adapt to what the roster strengths are. That’s just the question though, what will the strengths be and how strong? How will they even play with this roster? They could be pretty bad defensively if the starting 3-5 is Jakucionis/Humrichous/Ivisic who are all, well, not the most athletic. Also, who is their go-to guy? Until I see more I’m leaving them here, with the ceiling admittedly being higher than this because against those Europeans they were playing Ivisic/Jakucionis looked like they could be a problem. You just never know.

8.) USC (NR)

State of the Program:

Well this is the biggest, most extreme rebuild that is happening in college basketball right now, with the move to the Big Ten, just 1 returning scholarship player from a year ago and a new HC in Eric Musselman the program is completely reset. As he often does the Muss Bus has gone heavy into the transfer portal, bringing in 11 transfers along with 2 FR to give him 14 guys to work with in LA. Muss has brought in an astounding amount of production, with 5 guys who averaged 15+ ppg a year ago and 4 more that also averaged double digit scoring. He has an array of positional talent, from an 18/3/3 PG Slajchert to a 6’10” C Cohen who averaged 16 and 7 inside. There’s power conference talent like Desmond Claude and Terrance Williams, a Mountain West standout in Agbo Jr and even Ivy league guys. It’s a diverse hodge podge of talent, that if brought together could be an extremely dangerous team in the Big Ten, and Nationally. However, I’ve been fooled by Muss and his accumulation of talent via the portal recently, as last year’s group never came together. So, there’s cautious optimism, as the on paper talent will only take you so far. Muss has had tremendous success in his career building programs quickly, but in both his stops at Nevada and Arkansas he missed the dance in year 1. So, we may want to have some patience, although he never had the resources or open free agency via the portal in those years, so in some ways this is unprecedented even for him.

Prediction:

It’s damn near impossible to predict what is going to happen with this USC team, as it’s essentially a pickup team that’s been hand selected by one of the premier coaches in the sport when it comes to roster building. They have legitimate scorers of the basketball at every position, do they just try and score 100 every game and dare you to run with them? I don’t see him trying to play a halfcourt, take the air out of the ball type of game with a brand new roster, so a high pressure run and gun approach seems most likely. That also makes them a candidate for most fun watch in the country, with the storyline of the rebuild and Muss at the helm they could be a very fun watch even if it isn’t always resulting in wins. It’s a boom or bust approach for Muss, as if this blows up most if not all of these guys can and likely will just transfer out and he’s starting from zero again with a bunch of pressure to take strides forward. I’m going to predict, very unconvincingly, that they end up somewhat like last year’s St. John’s team, right on the bubble and competing down the stretch. It may be a tough start, which could hamper their ability to go dancing, but I would not be shocked that by Big 10 play USC starts to put things together, and by February are trying to go on a run to get onto the right side of the bubble. It’s a complete shot in the dark, but you have to trust Muss, with the most resources he’s ever had, to demand excellence and get a core of these guys to buy in and find some success at some point. I’ll take them to be frisky and fun, and be right in the middle of the pack of this deep conference. Right or wrong, it’s going to be fascinating to watch how this extreme rebuild plays out.

9.) Nebraska (NR)

State of the Program:

What Fred Hoiberg has done with Nebraska is as amazing as it was predictable. That’s not to diminish the feat, but speaks to Hoiberg’s outstanding reputation as a coach, as most believed with time he would elevate this Nebraska program from the laughing stock of the Big Ten to a competitive team. Year 5 was the culmination of progress year over year, as he got the Huskers to the tourney for just the 2nd time since 1998. He welcomes back 2 starters from last year’s group in Williams and Gary after losing Mast to injury for the season, and has brought in a slew of transfers to fill the gaps left behind by those who left. The most notable hole is fan favorite Keisei Tominaga, who electrified the fan base, and frankly any fan of college hoops, and whose vacancy will be difficult to replace. Transfer Rollie Worster figures to handle the duties at the 1 spot, with a near 10/5/5 year with Utah last year he should come right in and produce. The final starting spot will be up for grabs, with Connor Essegian and Gavin Griffiths competing for the 2/3 spot alongside Worster and Williams. They are all different guys, with Essegian mostly just a spot up shooter, I think he serves more of a backup role as Griffiths showed flashes last year for Rutgers and has tremendous upside with his length. Transfers Morgan and Meah should have a role off the bench behind Bayuktuncel and Williams inside. With Ulis joining the backcourt as well they have a strong group to try and follow up and improve on last year’s success. Ultimately, it’s not the most eye popping talent wise, but Hoiberg has consistently proven he can maximize talent, so I have faith they will be once again in the mix.

Prediction:

Returning 3 of your 4 leading scorers is huge, and with the influx of new talent I truly think Nebraska will be tough once again this year. The one worry I have is outside shooting, as the biggest improvement, aside from the defensive end of the floor, was shooting from outside. They went from 256th to 78th in 3 point shooting a year ago, which helped them improve their offensive efficiency from 149th to 32nd. That was massive, but it was led in large part by Tominaga and Wilcher. Williams shot well as well, but losing those two and bringing in guards who all shot sub-35% from 3 is a worrisome fact. Now, I do think having a true setup man like Worster can help them, so there are some positives as well. Not to mention they drastically improved defensively, from 178th 3 years ago to 43rd last year. A continued emphasis on that end will help to make up for a slight dip in outside shooting. Their weaknesses were mostly on the glass and consistency on D, as many of their losses they gave up 90+ points. They play fast, shoot a lot of 3’s but don’t rebound well, so things can get out of hand quickly and we saw that often. Those are the holes that I see that have kept them down here in the middle of the Conference for me. Hoiberg has steadily improved every year, but getting to 30th in efficiency is tough to improve on without a serious influx of talent, which I’m not seeing. I expect a similar level Nebraska, somewhere in the 30’s overall and battling for a tourney bid. Even so, for Nebraska a chance to make back-to-back tourney’s for the first time since the early 90’s has to have you excited, if for nothing else a chance to get your first tourney win in school history. Yes you read that right, the Huskers are 0-8 all-time in the dance. Could this be the year?

10.) Michigan (NR)

State of the Program:

It’s another new era in the Big Ten, this time in Ann Arbor as Juwan Howard is out and in comes former FAU head man Dusty May. With him comes quite a bit of talent, although not nearly the volume that USC has it is still very strong at the top. It is headlined by May’s big man at FAU Vlad Goldin who has already proven in his career he can play with the big boys and should come in and be a big time producer in the Big Ten. Roddy Gayle headlines the backcourt additions, as he took a major step forward a year ago at Ohio St, producing at a high level as a scorer and distributor. Around those two is a mix of transfers, returning talent and FR who all will battle for minutes. Rubin Jones and Tre Donaldson appear to be the leading candidates to run the point, with both having the potential to start as Jones is 6’4″ and could play the 2 between Donaldson and Gayle. Burnett and FR Justin Pippen also will compete for time though also, as Pippen, the son of Scotty Pippen, was a rising prospect as he came on late in his HS career and has developed into a serious prospect. He can score at all 3 levels and has good length and bounce for his size and could be a contributor right away. Goldin and Alabama transfer Walter probably man the 4/5, although Will Tschetter certainly could play the 4 a lot as well. There’s obviously a solid group of talented guys, it’s not 13 deep by any means but there’s a solid core of 9 or 10 guys that can make Michigan a player again in the Big Ten right away with May at the helm.

Prediction:

I actually think this transition could go pretty well, as Goldin and Wolf give the Wolverines anchors inside to play through on offense, and the guards around them can all knock down shots from the outside. I have no idea how they’ll be defensively though, which could be the x factor for them competing for a tourney bid or flaming out in the bottom half of the league. I have them smack dab in the middle, but teams 6-11 for me all have tourney upside but enough holes for me to seriously doubt they could win the league. At the end of the day we don’t have a ton to go off of with May, but the last 2 year’s at FAU he had a top-25 offensive team, that played through Goldin and a large cast of guards who shared the sugar and shot a ton of 3’s. I expect a similar philosophy, especially with him bringing Golding AND Wolf, signaling he wants that anchor inside to play through. I worry about the defense, as Michigan really struggled on that end a year ago and May has only had a top-50 ranked defensive team once in his short coaching career. The upside is that one team was the one that went 35-4 and all the way to the Final 4, so on some level he’s proven he can build a winner. His one chance at handling expectations didn’t go as great, but still he deserves credit for building a program out of essentially nothing that could go 32-6 in Conference play and make back to back tourney’s after missing the dance for 20 straight years. I may expect too much, but the talent is here for this to be a bubble team and maybe squeak into the dance, but with a rebuild like this anything is possible.

11.) Ohio St (NR)

State of the Program:

The Buckeyes had a wild season last year, as they started 12-2, including a win over eventual Final 4 team Alabama, but went just 2-9 over their next 11 games leading to the firing of Chris Holtmann. In came interim HC Jake Diebler, who quickly turned the ship around as they finished the regular season 5-1, only to fall in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tourney in a battle with Elite 8 team Illinois. Diebler’s success landed him the full time HC gig, so we enter this year with essentially a rookie HC who has had to somewhat rebuild this roster. He does get back their best player from a year ago in Bruce Thornton, so that helps, but with only a couple of role players like Devin Royal and Evan Mahaffey around him coming back Diebler is having to rely on transfers and unproven youth to try and avoid a tough year 1. The good news is the group of transfers has strong potential, with former 5-star recruits in Sean Stewart and Aaron Bradshaw, leaving Duke and Kentucky respectively, in search of more playing time. Add in veteran wing Micah Parrish and veteran guards Meechie Johnson (welcome back) and Ques Glover and you start to see a strong nucleus forming. They will also have former top-50 recruit Taison Chatman in the backcourt as well as incoming FR John Mobley. Mobley comes in as an elite shooter but at his size will likely only spell Thornton at the point, but as he grows and gets stronger he should be a weapon down the road for the Buckeyes. All in all the talent is here for the Buckeyes to be in bubble conversations come February if Diebler has what it takes to get this group to buy in and gel.

Prediction:

It’s really hard to predict how a coach with just 11 total games under his belt is going to fare, especially when you factor in the roster turnover. What I’ll give him credit for is how he galvanized the locker room a year ago, as they clearly were playing harder on both ends once he took control. They improved from 67th in overall efficiency to 47th by year’s end, with a slight uptick in tempo and much better results on the defensive end as the driving factors. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the coaching change produced better play out of the exact same roster, so at the very least he was able to light a fire under last year’s group. I’ll assume that fire stays lit, even with newcomers entering the program, he clearly established he’s going to require/inspire excellence on a different level than the previous regime. That combined with the talent coming in to surround an All-Conference lead guard in Bruce Thornton has me cautiously optimistic about where the Buckeyes could end up this year. Bradshaw could develop into an elite rim protector and rebounder, Johnson and Glover can help with the scoring load and Stewart/Royal/Mahaffey all bring potential to the 3/4 spots with Parrish as the vet alongside. I have 2 big worries overall, outside shooting and depth in the frontcourt. There is a lot of pressure on Bradshaw to produce at a high level as a rebounder, with just the Croatian FR Ivan Njegovan or Austin Parks behind him, none of whom have produced at this level. They also only have 1 guy in Glover who has shot over 33% from 3, not great. There’s a lot of potential, but with potential comes risk, and that’s why I’ll stick them in the back half in the Conference. I could see them getting to the upper part of this second tier if everything goes well, but if the transfers don’t click, it could be another year of missing the dance and leaving Buckeye fans wondering if the HC move was the right one. The ceiling here is to be in the bubble talks and get into the tourney as an 8-9 seed, but the floor is falling into the bottom of the Conference. I have a good feeling about Diebler, but in this world of instant gratification, he has a lot of pressure to produce right away.

12.) Iowa (NR)

State of the Program:

The Hawkeyes finished a bit better than my expectations a year ago, but still were just .500 in Conference play and missed the tourney for the first time since 2018. It was a roster that was missing the true go-to offensive star that they’ve had in the past, but they still managed to be a top-20 offensive team with a litany of contributors. They had 4 guys average double figures, but just 2 of them are back with Payton Sandfort (leading scorer) and rising young big Owen Freeman returning. Josh Dix in the backcourt took a step forward last year as well, shooting 42% from 3 in his SO campaign and looks like a sure bet to play the 2 next to Sandfort at the 3. To replace Perkins they brought in a transfer PG from Morehead St Drew Thelwell, and while he was a bit inefficient as a scorer he will be able to run the offense and may even improve on his 6 assists per game with the pace Iowa plays if he has full control. Traore, the other transfer, likely comes in and plays the 4 spot alongside Freeman, to give them a decent starting 5 that should be able to continue scoring the ball at a high level. Ultimately though, the Iowa success story of the years, to the extent there is one, is a story of developing talent in house. If they want to improve on last season’s results one of the minor role players from last year is going to need to take a big step forward to give them some real punch. Maybe it’s Owen Freemen if he can turn into an All-Conference type of big man that we’ve seen before at Iowa. Either way we know they’ll be able to score, and McCaffery at the least has proven he can always get his teams to at least be around the .500 mark in Conference seemingly every year, with the occasional standout year.

Prediction:

If you’re new to 5-Star then you won’t know my previous diatribes on the Iowa Hawkeyes, so allow me a quick summary as my thoughts pretty much remain the same. If you aren’t going to play defense you aren’t going to win at a high level. Year after year folks get enamored with the fast paced run and gun offense the Hawkeyes are known for, but time and again they refuse to defend, which was clearly on display again last year as they were 157th in defensive efficiency, and over the last 8 years they’ve not been better than 75th. As good as an offensive mind as Fran McCaffery may be, his refusal to clean up the defensive end of the floor is going to continue to prevent his ability to get over the hump. He has been at Iowa for 14 seasons, with 7 tournament appearances that have produced just 4 wins, never getting out of the first weekend. They’ve never won the Big Ten under McCaffery, but also they’ve been .500 or better in Conference play 11 of those seasons. He’s capable of keeping them competitive, and deserves some credit for doing so, but I will continue to beat a dead horse in saying they are unable to get over the hump because they refuse to play defense. Until that changes I will not be putting them anywhere near the top of the Conference, especially without an NBA caliber talent like Keegan Murray or Luka Garza anywhere to be found on this year’s roster. I expect them to finish somewhere around 9-11 in Conference play and miss a 2nd straight tourney, but hey maybe they’ll surprise me and go 10-10. Either way, I expect more of the same so long as McCaffery is leading the show.

13.) Northwestern (NR)

State of the Program:

This was a really fun team last year, as Boo Buie was must watch TV down the stretch and his ridiculous scoring efforts allowed them to get to back-to-back NCAA tourney’s and secure 1st round W’s in both trips. You have to give big time credit to Collins in adapting last year, as his teams at Northwestern have been traditionally strong defensively and really struggled to score the ball. Having the shooters he had and Buie at the point, he just gave it to Buie and said carry us. His ability to take over games and break down defenses to either score or open up things for his teammates was the driving factor to their success. And a huge success it was for a Northwestern program that historically tops out as pesky in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, with Booie and fellow sharpshooter Ryan Langborg gone the offensive firepower is going to be much lower this year. They do welcome back Brooks Barnhizer and Ty Berry, who will have to be a dominant duo if they want to sniff the success of a season ago. I do think both have potential to be All-Conference players, especially Barnhizer who scored in double figures 19 of their final 21 games and shot 42% from 3 in Conference play on low volume. They brought in Jalen Leach from Fairfield to try and fill the void left behind by Buie and Langborg, but they will be asking a lot of the mid major transfer as he’ll need to come in and run the show alongside Berry. The other role players should continue to be who they are, as we’re all aware of Martinelli, Nicholson and Hunger and who they are. They don’t jump off the page in terms of being guys who will take major steps forward, but were solid a year ago in their role and should be again. All in all there’s enough here for Northwestern to stay out of the bottom of the Conference at the very least.

Prediction:

I expect regression on the offensive end without Buie leading the show, hello captain obvious, but I have seen Northwestern lower than this elsewhere and I do think that’s a lack of respect for Barnhizer and Berry. Those two have proven they’re getting better year over year, especially Barnhizer who looks to be a very tough 3/4 man to deal with this year. My issue more lies with the depth, or lackthereof, which is why I have them sliding so much from last year. I do think a typical major conference program could absorb the loss of Buie a little easier, but Northwestern ranked 301st in bench minutes played last year. They didn’t have depth that Collins trusted last year, and frankly all that load on the starters may have contributed to the injury situations we saw down the stretch for them. They landed 1 guard in the transfer portal, but behind Leach and Berry is a whole lot of question marks. I appreciate the fight that Collins has brought to this program, but I think they step back to where they had been for years under him as just pesky, with a likely upset or two at home that shocks people and gets them some bubble buzz at some point in January or February, but ultimately the lack of depth and playmaking at the guard spots will hold them back too much. They are the perfect NIT team in my opinion, and in a year where you just lost maybe the greatest player in program history at a place like Northwestern, being fiesty and a NIT team isn’t a horrible ending. Best case is Barnhizer and Berry absolutely dominate, both scoring 15+ ppg and they improve a little on defense and can squeak their way into a 3rd straight NCAA tournament as like a 10 seed. I don’t see it happening, but there is a path given how good those 2 can potentially be.

14.) Maryland (NR)

State of the Program:

I’m not a Maryland fan or friends with any so I’m not plugged in with how they are feeling about the switch to Kevin Willard, but after last season I would think he enters this year with a warming seat. He had what was a promising roster coming off the heels of an NCAA tourney berth and first round W, so expectations were certainly not met a year ago as they finished the season going 2-8 in February/March and overall were just 16-17 (7-13). They were horrific offensively, and what production they did have is mostly gone as 2 of their 3 guys to average double figures are gone and their 4th leading scorer is also gone. The good news is they get big man Julian Reese back who can be a centerpiece for them, and now SO DeShawn Harris–Smith is a candidate to have a SO jump. Throw in role players Jordan Geronimo and Jahari Long and that’s it from last year’s group, and maybe that’s a good thing after the way they finished the season. Willard was able to nab some key transfers to replace the backcourt losses, including Ja’Kobi Gillespie to run the point after an All-Conference season in the MVC, and he’ll likely be joined by USF transfer Selton Miguel to form what could be a solid backcourt. They joined with Harris-Smith should continue to make Maryland a force defensively, but more importantly Willard will hope they can improve the Terps dreadful shooting from last year as they both shot 39%. Inside FR Derik Queen, who reminds you of former Purdue big man Caleb Swanigan, as he’s a bit on the husky side and isn’t an explosive athlete by any means, but man is he a load inside. He understands how to throw his weight around and get good position inside and has good touch when he gets it. Obviously Reese is still here and the main man but they finally have some depth to help him out with Queen, who should be a productive Big Ten big for a few years. Geronimo and transfer Gapare figure to play at the 4 as well, so depth inside is a lot better this year.

Prediction:

I want to put the Terps in the same category as Northwestern, as I think they’ll be pesky but don’t have the ceiling to truly be up there contending with the big dogs. I like what Willard did to address the issue of outside shooting (347th in 3-pt % last year), and adding depth inside is huge as well. The fact is the loss of Jahmir Young and his 20 ppg is a massive blow to an already low skill group offensively, and while Gillespie and Miguel had success in the Missouri Valley and American conferences last year you’re relying on mid major transfers to essentially lead the show offensively from the 2 backcourt spots. I like the duo of Reese and Queen, but I’m not sure they can play together, as neither can shoot and it’s tough to run two back to the basket bigs effectively. Best case is those 2 transfer guards produce at a high level and the combo of Reese and Queen create a 5 man that averages 25 and 15. If that comes to fruition and they can defend like Willard coached teams have in the past then I think they squeak back to the tourney, it’s just a lot to ask for. I expect for some bumps in the road, especially with the depth this conference has, and while the top might not be as strong, having 14 or more teams that you can make an argument as having tourney potential is insane. I look for them to still be alive come February but ultimately to just not have enough firepower to be in a position to get into the dance. It still won’t be fun going to College Park this year.

15.) Wisconsin (NR)

State of the Program:

Greg Gard has had an above average run at Wisconsin over the last 9 years, despite not much success in March. He’s made the dance 7 of his 9 seasons, going above .500 in Conference play in 7 of 9 as well. These days in college basketball it’s harder and harder to find that kind of year over year consistency. So, even though he hasn’t made it out of the first weekend since 2017 I think the chatter of his potentially getting fired is a bit unwarranted. That being said, I don’t think he makes it 8 out of 10 with this roster he has. They lose their leading scorer AJ Storr from last year as he chased his bag to Kansas, don’t blame him, and vets Tyler Wahl and Chucky Hepburn are also gone. What remains are a few nice pieces, with longtime 5 man Steven Crowl leading the way, along with rising guards Max Klesmit and John Blackwell. Blackwell is the intriguing guy here, as if they are to outperform where I have them he is going to have to take a major step forward after what was a surprising FR campaign that saw him shoot a ridiculous 46% from 3, so he clearly showed he has more in him. Beyond those 3 we start asking a lot of questions as far where the production is going to come from and who is going to get minutes and where. The transfer Camren Hunter is the most logical fit to replace Chucky as the PG, and frankly appears to be the only one who has played that role at the college level. He was productive in the A-Sun, but sat out last year due to an injury so we’ll have to wait and see if he’s ready to come into the Big Ten and run an offense under Gard who prioritizes taking care of the basketball. Guys like Iver and Gilmore played small roles a year ago and are going to have to step up in the absence of Wahl, and transfer Xavier Amos looks to help in that area as well as a natural fit next to Crowl inside as he can shoot from the perimeter.

Prediction:

To be honest I struggle most years trying to place Wisconsin in these previews, because they always seem to outperform the talent level on paper. Defensively they have been very good, top-20 in 6 of his season’s and at least top-50 in 8. They aren’t Virginia, but they may be as close to it as exists out there, as they play at a snails pace, almost always rank near the top at taking care of the ball, and usually struggle to score. What I worry about is the lack of a true go-to guy offensively this year, which they’ve had under Gard when they are at their best. From Ethan Happ to Johnny Davis to last year AJ Storr, they had a guy they could depend on to carry them on that end. This roster does not appear to have that, as Crowl has only been a supplemental 2nd or 3rd option in his career and his highest usage rate in 2023 they were 140th offensively and missed the tourney. That’s why they went and got a guy like Storr to score in the halfcourt for them. Gone is Storr though, and what remains are all unproven guys in terms of being a number 1 scoring option. The best case you can make for the Badgers is Blackwell takes a major step forward with increased opportunity, and frankly that’s not out of the question as he was incredibly efficient when he did get the opportunity last year. So, we know Crowl will produce inside at a 12/8 range and Klesmit is a knockdown catch and shoot option, and if Blackwell along with Hunter can create in the halfcourt and they pair that with a top-20 defense again then they’ll outperform this prediction. I still see the ceiling as a fringe tourney team, and ultimately think there’s a lot of wildcards that have to go the right way, and with so much talent entering the Conference it’s hard to imagine. I expect them to miss the tourney for the 2nd time in 3 years, and the seat may start to get warm again for Gard.

16.) Washington (NR)

State of the Program:

Another total rebuild, which is becoming a far more common occurrence, thus making the prediction game much more difficult. New HC Danny Sprinkle is on the fast track right now as he took Montana St to back-to-back tourney’s and parlayed that into the Utah St job, taking his star players with him and getting the Aggies to the tourney and picking up his first win in the Dance. This is now his 3rd school in 3 seasons and with him he’s brought Great Osobor to all 3 spots. That’s the biggest bright spot people are focusing on around this UW program, but the rest of the incoming transfers leave a little to be desired compared to the other rebuilds in the Conference. I also think Osobor may be in for a rude awakening in the Big 10, as Utah St didn’t play a power conference opponent until the NCAA tourney. The two tourney games he averaged just 13 ppg and 6 rebounds. They as a team gave up 34 offensive rebounds with him as the stalwart inside. His stats a year ago were inflated due to the horrific teams at the bottom of the Mountain West and he would put up 30 and 15 on them. I expect his efficiency and effectiveness to drop quite a bit coming into the Big 10, which is going to put pressure on a collection of guards coming in that does not include a real dominant playmaker. The The group of Davis/Mason/Ihenacho/Kortright will be the core, and it’s a group that was inefficient as shooters, and not exactly known for their defense. That lack of obvious standouts is going to open the door for top-50 PG Zoom Diallo to come in and have an impact. The 6’3″ PG is at his best when attacking downhill, as he can blow-by as well as use his craftiness to get in the paint and finish or setup teammates. Not a proven outside shooter yet but has shown effectiveness in the midrange, and with the only true PG coming in being Ihenacho from N. Dakota, the opportunity to get playing time at the 1 is certainly there. Osobor will be joined by the duo of Kepnang and Breidenbach inside, but the transfers Conway and Ibekwe could be a factor as well.

Prediction:

I’ll start by saying Danny Sprinkle can clearly coach, getting to 3 straight tourney’s now at Montana St and Utah St is nothing to scoff at. I worry about the challenge level he’s facing here coming into an 18 team Big Ten that has deep rooted programs and HC’s that have momentum. I don’t think this transfer roster has enough firepower like the other rebuilds happening at USC and Michigan for example. Dusty May has a similar background as Sprinkle, but man does he have more to work with in terms of proven high major talent on his roster. That’s the fear here, and while we’ve seen guys make the jump from mid-major to the power conference level carve out meaningful roles, we haven’t seen guys come in and be a star, aside from Dalton Knecht of course. There’s nobody on this roster that looks like a Knecht, so ultimately I think it’ll be a well coached team that plays hard but just doesn’t have the talent to keep up with the rest of this Conference. They’ll win some games and stay out of the basement, but there’s just not the horses here for Sprinkle to turn this around in year 1. I have hope for him in the future, especially if he can hang on to some of these guys and create a culture and some cohesion. Stick around and don’t give up on him even if there are struggles in year 1, of which I believe there will be many.

17.) Penn St (NR)

State of the Program:

Mike Rhoades actually did a pretty decent job in year 1 trying to rebuild Penn St after their successes under Shrewsberry. Winning 9 games in the Big Ten is nothing to scoff at, especially considering he had to completely overhaul a roster. He also welcomes back a strong core from last year’s team including Ace Baldwin who can be an All-Conference guard and 3 more regular starters in Hicks, Kern and Johnson plus regular rotation player Dunn. That’s a solid group of 5 guys that can all come right back and maintain some cohesion after a solid year last year. Freddie Dilone is another name to watch in the backcourt as he was a top-50 recruit to Tennessee that just never had the opportunity to show what he can do. The problem that’s keeping them this low for me is this is a group that struggled defensively in the paint and really struggled on the glass. They had just 1 true center in Qudus Wahab and he is gone, with no real proven replacement in sight. They were 282nd in the country in opponent 2 point % and 316th in offensive rebounds allowed, for those of you who require evidence. So, what little paint presence they did have is now gone and the replacements are N. Illinois transfer Yanic Niederhauser who averaged a mere 4 rebounds per game, Xavier transfer Kachi Nzeh who only played sparingly and is undersized and incoming FR Miles Goodman. Goodman barely cracked the top-100 but he does have great length and athleticism, which could help him become a plus rim protector and rebounder. He’s not going to offer much in terms of scoring, but if Penn St wants to replicate their success of last year he may be the key.

Prediction:

My obvious worry is the weaknesses of this team a year ago are only going to be accentuated, as they are just going to really struggle to defend the paint and rebound. That’s not a good formula, especially for a group that shot just 33% from 3, good for 204th in the nation a year ago. I think they have a strong backcourt, but the inefficiency, just 85th last year, and the inability to gain extra possessions via offensive rebounds is just a bad pairing for a team that also isn’t going to defend at a high level. Maybe they climb a spot or two by season’s end, but truly I just don’t see how you make it in this league without some sort of inside presence to help you out. How are they going to guard the bigs around this league? It’s just not going to happen, and without a top-10 or so offense you just are going to be reeling all Conference season long. That’s my prediction, even with them being a pesky team again it’s just not going to be enough to make up for their deficiencies inside. I do believe in Rhoades as a coach, but you have to have the horses and he just doesn’t.

18.) Minnesota (NR)

State of the Program:

Ben Johnson enters year 4 as the head man at Minnesota off of what was by far his best season here, winning 9 Conference games after just a combined 6 such wins in his first 2 campaigns. They were better in basically every statistical way, but still overall were just 78th in overall efficiency and still really struggled defensively. Also, much of what led to that success has left the program, including PG Elijah Hawkins whose 7.5 assists per game helped make them 4th overall in the Nation in assist ratio. Gone with him are a total 6 of the 8 guys who started multiple games for them last year, so aside from returnees Dawson Garcia and Mike Mitchell it’s essentially a complete rebuild. Now, those two make a very solid 1-2 punch at the top, but after that it’s really all mid-major transfers, with the exception being Oregon transfer Brennan Rigsby who has shown flashes of being a good scorer but not on a consistent basis. I’m not going to sit here and claim to know everything about all of these transfers, because I actually did not watch Canisius/Charlotte/UTSA last year, so I’m not sure what they’ve got, but given the transfer talent elsewhere in this Conference this crop doesn’t exactly jump off the page. Let me summarize it like this, per On3, they rank 18th of out of 18 Big Ten teams in commitment talent per their rankings. That’s not promising, especially returning just 2 guys who had major roles from a year ago.

Prediction:

I think it’s pretty obvious by their last place ranking I don’t have high hopes for the Gophers this year. Johnson is struggling to bring in talent, and while Garcia and Mitchell do make a nice combo for them offensively, you have to wonder how they’re going to make up for the lost production overall. They were a terrible defensive unit a year ago, and have been ranked > 100 on that end each of Johnson’s 3 seasons. In the Big 10 that’s just not going to cut it, especially when you haven’t proven to be able to score at an elite level like an Iowa for example. No defense, mid-major guard talent and essentially 1 proven guy in Dawson Garcia is a recipe for disaster. This may be Johnson’s last year here, as I would assume by year 4 you’d expect them to get somewhere near bubble conversations at the very least, especially after firing Pitino who made the dance twice here. It’s been a rough go for Gopher fans, who haven’t seen their team get out of the first round of the tourney since 1997 when Clem Haskins took them to the Final 4. In fact, since then they’ve seen just 2 tourney wins, so the darkness continues to cast over what would be a fun program to see get rolling, as that arena can be a fun environment when it’s rocking. Maybe next year.