Pre-Season Prediction

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1.) Alabama (#1)

State of the Program:

You could probably count on one hand the programs that are in a better spot right now than Alabama. Nate Oats has this thing humming, reaching the tourney in 4 straight seasons after just 2 trips in the 13 seasons prior to his arrival. With this most recent trip to the Final Four only a National Championship remains on the list of goals not yet accomplished. Last year’s group wasn’t perfect though, as they really struggled defensively, ranking 111th per KenPom, which was a major step backwards after the 2023 team that won the SEC was 3rd. The difference? They didn’t have the bigs inside to protect the paint and finish possessions with a rebound. They missed guys like Charles Bediako and Noah Clowney who helped that team lead the nation in opponents 2 point shooting %. That number ballooned to rank 201st last year, as did their offensive rebounds allowed, rising all the way to 277th in the nation. It’s honestly super impressive a team with those deficiencies was able to get to a Final 4, but that’s a testament to how elite they were offensively. Mark Sears carried the way, and he is back to try and help Nate Oats and Alabama win a Natty. Alongside him will be two perfect fits with Chris Youngblood and Houston Mallette both transferring in as 42% 3 point shooters and high volume scorers at their previous spots. Those 3 along with Latrell Wrightsell form a very very solid backcourt, quite possibly the best in the Country if the transfers continue shooting at that clip as all 4 were well over 40% from 3 last year. With all of that being said the biggest addition in my opinion is big man Cliff Omoruyi from Rutgers. He’s exactly what they need, with the pedigree to be a menace on defense in the paint and the track record to control the glass much better than the bigs they had a year ago, so he helps to solve their biggest weaknesses from last year. Grant Nelson is back and he’ll contribute in the frontcourt as well, likely starting at the 4 out of the gate. Now the FR, which is a loaded class of 4 top-50 guys, which is unreal at a place like Bama. It’s headlined by 5-star wing Derrion Reid who is a big physical wing that has bounce and length, making him a prime one-and-done prospect. He projects as a 3 and D type wing, and with Bama this year should find some time at the 3 or 4 if he can knock down shots and rebound well. Grant Nelson had an up and down year last year so don’t be shocked if Reid overtakes him at the 4, but he could also play a big 3 if Oats is comfortable with his shooting ability. Sharrell is mostly ranked on his potential in my opinion, as he’s still raw as a center but at 6’11” with his length and athleticism you can understand the ceiling for him as a rim protector and presence inside. He’ll backup Omoruyi and have a fantastic guy to learn from at the position. Philon is a promising PG prospect but will be stuck behind a solid group of guards, but as a backup to Sears we should at least see him from time to time. Lastly it’s Cunningham, who is built much different than Reid as he’s wiry and thin but he’s a good shooter, so if Oats trusts him more to knockdown outside shots he may find time over Reid.

Prediction:

Obviously, the amount of talent here is just off the charts, with one of if not the deepest rosters in the country. The backcourt is full of sharpshooters that can also create buckets for themselves, which is perfect for Oats. He’s at the point where he can hand pick his ideal guys and build his perfect team. That’s dangerous folks. In case you haven’t watched them much or haven’t heard of Oats here’s a quick rundown. Stylistically he wants to play at a breakneck pace (top-15 all 5 years with Bama) and essentially has eliminated mid-range jumpers from their game plan, it’s paint shots or 3’s only (351st in % of points from 2’s last year). That’s not by mistake, it’s all by design and all a complete submission to analytics by Oats, you have to at least respect it, and frankly it’s the part of college basketball I love the most. You have guys like Matt Painter who want to play through a post player, or Kelvin Sampson who wants to get in a rock fight every night, or Tony Bennett who literally only cares about help side defense and taking charges all the way to this man Nate Oats who has a 4-point line in his practices to encourage his guys to practice and take deeper and deeper 3’s. The strategies are endless and the variety of basketball you get to watch at this level is what makes it unique compared to the NBA where it’s iso/ball screen every time so the best players in the world can get a bucket. Don’t blame them, but don’t blame me for enjoying variety on my plate. Anyway I digress, Bama and Oats have been fun for years now, but it’s getting ratcheted up to a whole new level with the talent he’s getting. He has addressed their issues inside with Omoruyi so I expect to see them be much better on the glass and on defense. Again, with a guy who can block shots and protect the paint that allows you to be much more aggressive on the perimeter and try and force TO’s, knowing if you get beat you’re funneling guys to your shot blocker inside. Offensively they may get better somehow, as they likely will be the best 3 point shooting team in the Country and have a POY candidate in Sears. The expectations here are SEC championship and a return trip to the Final 4 where they can try and bring Bama a basketball championship. Football money is going to change the landscape, and it’s no more evident than with this Bama program and frankly the SEC as a whole. Bama is for real, but after this year Oats may be off to the NBA if he wants to, so they better capitalize with a Natty while they can.

2.) Auburn (#6)

State of the Program:

Auburn somewhat quietly suffered what was the biggest statistical upset of the tourney last year, and while most of the chatter was about Oakland beating Kentucky, Yale’s win over Auburn was a historic win. No team since at least 2005 had entered the dance top-15 in offensive AND defensive efficiency and lost in the first round (that’s as far back as I’ve gone). 55 out of 55 such teams got out of the first round unscathed, until Auburn last year, so while it wasn’t the most newsworthy as we’ve become much more accustomed to the 4/13 upset, statistically it was the most improbable in recent memory. Much of that core is back to avenge that upset, with big man Johni Broome leading the way, 6 more guys are back around him to form a deep and hungry group. Chad Baker–Mazara and Denver Jones are the other starters who are back, and the three of them are a solid group to build around. What could make them even better than a year ago are the upgrades at the guard spots though, as the trio of KD Johnson, Aden Holloway and Tre Donaldson all left after an inconsistent and inefficient season. JP Pegues and Miles Kelly are both studs and will likely come in and start alongside Jones in the backcourt to form a very dangerous group to pair with All-Conference big man Broome. They have depth as well, with Cardwell, Johnson and Moore all back plus transfer Hudson to fill in at the 3-5 spots and allow Baker-Mazara to play the 3 as the backcourt rests. All of that depth is without including the 2 FR, most importantly the backup PG Tahaad Pettiford who has a ton of ability. He’s a bit undersized but is quick with the ball and has a true PG skillset. He can shoot it, but more importantly can get to the rim and elevate to finish as well as find his teammates, so he has a ton of promise and could push Pegues for more and more minutes as the season goes on. Jahki Howard is the other FR and this dude is a high flyer, do yourself a favor and check out his dunk reel. I’m not sure how he’ll factor in beyond some light work at the 3, but his length and athleticism make him a promising prospect if he can develop some sort of offensive game and use his length to be a nasty defender. Of course, not all 11 of these guys is going to play regularly, but to have that depth is huge especially for a team with expectations as high as Bruce Pearl and company have.

Prediction:

Pearl has had a lot of success here building Auburn into a perennial contender in the SEC, and with a solid core back from what was his best team statistically my expectations are sky high. I think this is one of the best teams in the country with Pegues and Kelly elevating the backcourt and most importantly Broome continuing to dominate inside. They do lose Jaylin Williams which is big as he was the 2nd leading scorer, but I refer back to the guard additions, as they will have much more punch in the backcourt scoring wise and should be able to play 4 out around Broome and be really tough to deal with. If I’m looking for weaknesses it would be rebounding, as they already struggled securing defensive rebounds, just 223rd in the country, and losing 6’8″ Williams could be tough, but again I’ll pick on last year’s group of guards as they did not rebound much. Kelly and Pegues averaged almost 10 boards combined, so I think the added physicality they bring will help make up for playing a little smaller with Baker-Mazara at the 4 at times. I love the culture that Pearl has built here, they play hard and up tempo and this group is going to be hungry after the crushing upset last year. They may not have as much firepower as Bama, but I for one can’t wait for the Broome/Omoruyi matchups inside. It’s going to be another fun one for Auburn fans, and the SEC may finally supplant the other leagues in basketball along with football. They have as good a chance as ever to get to a Final 4 and compete for a Natty.

3.) Tennessee (#13)

State of the Program:

Rick Barnes has turned Tennessee into one of the premier programs in the Conference, turning in 3 straight seasons of top-10 efficiency and a regular season title last year. For the most part the brand of basketball has been consistent, they want to drag you into the deep water and see how much fight you have. It’s physical, it’s nasty and frankly a horrific time for anyone not involved or a fan of the Vols. I don’t expect that to change, but there has been a massive exodus from the program, including guys like Josiah-Jordan James, Tobe Awaka and Jonas Aidoo that helped forge that style over the years. Zakai Zeigler is back though to lead the show at PG, and Jahmai Mashack will look to help him continue that culture of physicality. The real story here though is going to be the transfers, as Barnes once again went after the most prolific mid-major scorers he could get his hands on, with Chaz Lanier and Darlinstone Dubar looking to come in and be the next Dalton Knecht. Both shot over 50% from the field and 40% from 3, which is unbelievably efficient given the volume they took on. Lanier made 96 3’s at a 43% clip, which is unreal, and not to be ignored the 6’8″ Dubar made 72 at 40%. That is a big deal for a Tennessee team that shot just 34% from 3 last year and has really struggled over the years from deep. The loss of Aidoo is also big, but Ohio St transfer Felix Okpara is a perfect substitute as he was top-20 in block shot % last year and will be a perfect anchor for them at the 5. They also brought in versatile big Igor Milicic Jr who also can stretch the floor as he hit 38% of his 3’s and could play a stretch 4 in a big lineup for the Vols. They have much more front court depth than they did last year with Estrella also back they have 3 guys 6’10” or bigger who should help them shore up the defensive glass where they were just 139th a year ago. It’s a new look Vols team but the talent here is obviously enough to warrant similarly high expectations. Bishop Boswell is the lone FR coming in, and while he won’t have a huge role he should see consistent time behind Zeigler at the point and has a ton of promise to be the PG of the future with his combination of size, athleticism and ability to score at all 3 levels.

Prediction:

They don’t have a guy like Dalton Knecht on this roster, but the group of Zeigler, Lanier, Dubar, Gainey and Mashack is going to be able to make up most of the difference, and overall may be a more lethal group as last year’s team needed Knecht to carry them often. Them being a top-15 team certainly hinges on them continuing to be a top defensive unit as well, as they’ve now been top-5 defensively 4 years in a row. That fight and physicality continuing to be their identity is the expectation, and with the talent incoming if they buy into that mentality the Vols are going to be dangerous once again. This is much more of an overhaul though as compared to last year, so there is some hesitation, as getting these transfers to up their level of physicality to the Tennessee standard is no easy task. The addition of Okpara certainly helps, as he is one of the best shot blockers in the Country and as I’ve said repeatedly having a guy like that inside helps the perimeter guys a ton as they can pressure and cause chaos knowing if they’re beat the big fella inside can help them out and alter/block shots. They should be a better shooting team from outside and with Zeigler running the show they’re in good hands. The big goal will be to finally get over the hump with Barnes, as they’ve had really good teams but haven’t been able to get to a Final 4. In 6 trips they’ve gotten to the Sweet 16 3 times and the Elite 8 for the first time last year. The goal has to be a repeat SEC regular season championship and a Final 4, and while I don’t think they’ll win the league, if Lanier and Dubar come in and are double digit scorers and buy in to the culture they should have the firepower offensively to have a shot at a Final 4 run.

4.) Texas A&M (#18)

State of the Program:

Buzz Williams has done a terrific job turning this thing around and has gotten A&M to the tourney 2 years in a row and got a March victory last year. It was pretty unbelievable that they were the 26th best offensive unit a year ago when you look at their shooting percentages. They shot just 29% from 3, good for 342nd in the country, and had an effective FG% that ranked 341st. The only reason they could be efficient in any way was they led the nation in offensive rebounding. Guys like Henry Coleman III, Solomon Washington and Andersson Garcia are absolute menaces on the glass and they are all back. They also brought in Pharrell Payne from Minnesota who is a perfect fit as he was one of the top offensive rebounders in the Country, with a better rate than any of those 3. That group of 4 in the frontcourt means the SEC will once again have an animal to deal with when they face the Aggies as I fully expect them to lead the country in this category again. Hopefully for them though, they will be able to shoot it better, and their lead man Wade Taylor is back to try and help them elevate. The brought in Zhuric Phelps to be the Radford replacement, but he is not much of an outside shooter, just 22% a year ago so he’ll be more of a downhill attack guy. The guy who could help them knockdown shots is Manny Obaseki who came on strong to end the season, playing way more and scoring double figures in the final 9 games and shooting over 40% from 3 in the process. That trio starting in the backcourt should be an improvement and they also brought in CJ Wilcher from Nebraska who shot 39% from 3, so they should have better shooting numbers this year, which won’t be that hard to accomplish. They’re deep, they play hard for Buzz and have a go-to guy in Wade Taylor that always gives them a chance so expectations should be high.

Prediction:

I expect the Aggies to be a step above who they were last year but still not an elite team. They have an identity, as they dominate the boards despite being undersized and actually got better in that area with Payne coming in, who along with his shot blocking is the best interior guy they’ve had in recent memory. That along with the emergence of Obaseki are they keys in my mind for thinking they’ll be better, as the core is still there so we know who they are, I just think they’ll improve in some weak areas and have strengthened some of their strengths. They still have limitations, including paint defense after ranking just 171st in 2 pt defense last year, and also ironically defensive rebounding as they were just 128th in securing defensive boards. I expect both of those to be better with Payne roaming around, who the more I write about A&M is becoming more and more important for them to take a step forward and truly be a top-25 team. They are not good enough to be among the elite in the Conference, so I don’t see them winning it by any means, but they have a ceiling of like a 4 seed in the tourney and could be an absolute menace to face in the dance as their ability shocked even a hard nosed team like Houston last year who they pushed to OT thanks to a whopping 26 offensive boards. Do not sleep on A&M and let’s get Buzz Williams more interviews because he is a joy to listen to as it’s easy to see why these guys have bought in for him and play so hard. Expect the Aggies to be dancing for a 3rd year in a row and a trip to the Sweet 16 and beyond is fully in the cards.

5.) Texas (#19)

State of the Program:

Rodney Terry has done a pretty good job to right the ship after a tumultuous exit from Chris Beard midseason. He’s guided a talented roster to a 2-0 record in the first round of the tourney and trip to the Elite 8 his first time. That has created some stability, but with a mass exodus from the program and 6 transfers coming in plus 3 FR, it’s completely his roster and his point to prove now. The good news is this transfer class is incredible, with 5 guys that are starting caliber, with 4 likely to as all were double digit scorers. It’s hard to even point to the most important guy, but the trio of Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and Arthur Kaluma were all power Conference starters and should come right in to create the new core for this year’s team. I expect returning big man Shedrick to start a the 5 alongside Kaluma at the 4. With Pope and Mark in the backcourt that leaves a starting spot open. We now turn to 5-star FR Tre Johnson, who at 6’6″ is one of the best scorers entering college basketball this year. He has length, athleticism and a pure stroke from outside, giving him all the tools to be a 3 level scorer at the next level. He’ll compete with transfers Julian Larry, Jayson Kent and Chendall Weaver to start but all of them are very talented and should get playing time. Kaluma and Shedrick inside is solid, but after them it’s very thin, as their tallest guys are Onyema the UTEP transfer from last year and incoming FR Nic Codie at 6’8″. Codie is more of a stretch wing that has size, kind of in a De’Andre Hunter vein, as he has guard skills but has the size to play the 4, but you really wouldn’t want him as a 5 man. So, therein-lies the weakness of the roster, as rebounding and defending the paint could be a problem as they will likely be undersized at times, especially if Shedrick gets in foul trouble.

Prediction:

The optimistic outlook for this roster is that all of this offensive talent comes in and gels and they are one of the most difficult lineups to stop in the country. They have creators like Pope and Larry that can create for others and also 4-5 guys who can get their own shots. They will likely play small and be very athletic, so defensively they should be able to ramp up the pressure and switch almost everything. Obviously the boards could be an issue, but guys like Kaluma and Kent are plus rebounders even though they’re only 6’8″, so while at the 5 they may be outmatched they could play a bigger lineup at other positions as the 6’6″ FR Johnson could play the 2 at times. Yes I worry about the AAU style of roster where it’s just a bunch of scorers brought together, but I do trust a guy like Jordan Pope to be an orchestrator and Kent/Larry/Mark are all comfortable as spot up shooters. My fear is moreso on the defensive end of the floor, and while I can highlight the potential versatility, it’s hard to imagine this group coming together and playing effectively as a unit, especially without much rim protection and a weakness on the boards. If they can just be competent on that end, somewhere in the 50th ranked range then I do think they could have a top-10 efficiency offensive group. It’s hard to fully trust Rodney Terry just yet, as he inherited a core from Beard that did take a step backwards defensively in his first season. I’m high on the Longhorns because of their potential and maybe that will be a flop like we’ve seen with teams loading up in the transfer portal before, but Terry did bring in 5 transfers to last year’s team that was a 7-seed in the tourney. This class is far more talented, and he can do a lot for his reputation if he can get them to gel and compete at the top of a very competitive Conference. I definitely think they’re a notch below the top teams, but there’s no reason they can’t get back into the tourney, and by then this thing could really be humming and be dangerous.

6.) Arkansas (#22)

State of the Program:

It’s a brand new era in Fayetteville as Coach Cal surprised the CBB world and left Kentucky to try and build Arkansas into a power. He brings his 6 SEC championships, 6 Final Fours and 1 Natty with him, as he looks to continue to add to the trophy case and maybe prove to the folks of Kentucky it’s not always greener on the other side. Heading into year 1 he’s already proven one thing, he’s still got it when it comes to recruiting guys to play for him. Between the transfer portal and his FR class he put together a roster that should be ready to contend right away. The transfers are led by Johnell Davis who we all know from the FAU run to the Final 4 in 2023, and after averaging 18 ppg last year he is a sure fire starter and immediate go-to offensive weapon. Jonas Aidoo is the ready made 5 man for Cal coming in from Tennessee which gives them length and size inside, but he’ll be pushed by Kentucky follower Ivisic who didn’t get going in his FR year but has a ton of potential. At PG Cal brought DJ Wagner with him, but he also got a big time FR in Boogie Fland who is primed for a big season. He can do everything you want a point guard to do, as his jumper is solid, he can finish at the rim and has good feel for setting up his teammates. No idea who will start but both should play and have a role regardless. At the other wing spot will likely be another FR, with 2 solid candidates to choose from. Karter Knox is the higher ranked of the two and he is a physical force, reminding you of an OG Anunoby style wing as he can block shots, rebound and will get to the rim and finish with authority. His jumper is decent but that may limit him early if he can’t prove to be a perimeter threat. He will be able to play the 3 but may be more suited to slide down to the 4 with his size which gives Cal even more lineup versatility. The other is Billy Richmond, who is actually quite similar to Knox as he is physically gifted and likes to play above the rim. They are both going to be deadly in transition and as slashers/cutters but we’ll see if either one can prove to be a consistent outside shooter. The lone holdover Trevon Brazille is the likely starter at the 4, and due to his experience I would expect that to be pretty solid. Adou Thiero will also be a factor in the backcourt, although his lack of shooting ability likely will limit his play time like it did at Kentucky. That’s a solid group of 9, with DII transfer Melo Sanchez maybe the only other one who could crack into the rotation as he may be the best outside shooter on the roster outside of Johnell Davis. It’s a really talented group but it will certainly take one of Cal’s best coaching jobs to get them competing off the bat.

Prediction:

I have a ton of faith in Cal when it comes to bringing in large groups of new guys and getting them to come together, he’s been doing it for years so it’s kind of hard to doubt at this point. They have 2 solid guys at the 5, a solid group that can rotate at the 4 in Brazille and the 2 FR, and the 2 PG’s should both be solid. Where I’m worried is the guards and specifically the lack of outside shooting. Johnell Davis can score and was 41% from 3 last year, but the other options are Thiero, Sanchez and the 2 FR, unless Cal is going to play Wagner and Fland together some. Even so, Wagner was just 29% a year ago from 3. Those guys can improve of course, but on paper heading into the year that’s the clear weakness for this roster. There may be others, but given that one in particular I would expect Cal to want this group to get out and run to utilize the athleticism, especially with the FR coming in and Brazille and Aidoo inside. They should be able to defend the paint well with that lanky front court as well, and with the athleticism there’s no reason they should struggle on the boards or on D. Whether or not Cal can get them all up to speed defensively is another question though, as he’s struggled recently with the young teams pairing with transfers. He hasn’t had a top-25 team defensively since 2019, which conveniently is also the last time he’s made it out of the first weekend in March. So, with all of that said it’s clear that the talent on paper is there to be a contender, but there’s a few big question marks. Will they be able to knock down shots and will they defend? That’s what you need to look for early in the season, and if they struggle I would be willing to bet it’s those two issues. Not exactly saying much though those are two critical parts of the game of basketball. Anyway, I believe in Cal getting the most out of his guys, and he brought the FR and many of the transfers with him from Kentucky so they’re there to play for him. I expect at least a tourney berth in year 1, maybe I’m crazy, but coaching matters and Cal has been in 16 of the last 18 tourney’s and has the talent to do it again.

7.) Kentucky (#25)

State of the Program:

Just like Arkansas it’s a whole new era for BBN, as they get a new voice in the program and bring in a former player in Mark Pope to lead the program. It was somewhat surprising from an outsiders perspective to see Cal be run off, and while it wasn’t a firing or anything like that it was clear he was tired of dealing with the unrealistic expectations the fanbase has every season. With him he took several transfers and a ton of FR talent, leaving Pope with quite a rebuilding project in year 1. Pope did a pretty good job to elevate BYU, turning in 3 top-20 Kenpom seasons in 5 years as he showed off his offensive mind. He went out and used the Kentucky brand to bring in quite the transfer group with 7 guys incoming that averaged 11+ ppg and 10 total transfers. The group of Kerr Kriisa, Jaxson Robinson, Andrew Carr and Koby Brea are 4 of the likely starters and were all big time players at former spots, with Robinson following Pope from BYU. There’s a ton of depth though as well, with Lamont Butler perfectly capable behind Kriisa and Otega Oweh and Ansley Almonor the same behind Robinson and Brea. Brandon Garrison and Amari Williams are a decent combo at the 5 as well, so the roster construction is promising, deep and makes sense with what Pope has traditionally wanted to have which involves playing a deep lineup that shares the ball, plays fast and bombs away from 3. The lone FR that has a slight chance to crack through is Collin Chandler, who is fresh off his 2 year missionary trip he followed Pope from BYU. He was a top-40 recruit and is a gifted athlete and scorer, so pretty experienced depth in the backcourt he is a guy to keep an eye on for the future. Kentucky fans should rightfully be excited, and it could wind up being that both Kentucky and Arkansas win from the change, but Pope certainly has his hands full given the difficulty of rebuilding from scratch and the expectations BBN will place on them.

Prediction:

These rebuilds are incredibly difficult to predict, and Kentucky is as extreme as it gets with nobody back from last year’s roster where do you even begin. Last year there weren’t any teams that had zero returning scholarship players, this year we have multiple so it’s an interesting experiment, but even the near total rebuilds like West Virginia, Penn St, St. John’s, Butler and Arizona St all struggled and failed to make the tourney. Now, none of them have the brand of Kentucky nor did they have this much talent coming in, but the very short history of free agency via the transfer portal is not kind to these massive rebuilds. What gives you hope in this one, and similar looking versions like Arkansas and USC, is the sheer volume of talent and proven production. You have no idea how it’s going to mesh together, especially for a HC that thrives on a well oiled machine of an offense and doesn’t typically have good defensive teams. Pope’s BYU teams were often top-100 in pace and last year were top-10 in both 3 point ratio and assist %. Play fast, share the sugar and do not hesitate to let it fire seem to be the strategies. It’s a fun style for offensive minded guys to want to play for, so it’s no surprise to see him attract all these scoring options and focus on guys who shoot it well from 3. With all of that said I don’t expect them to have many issues scoring, but similar to St. John’s a year ago it’s the other end of the floor that you worry about. They’re going to have to defend at least at an above average level if they want success and that will be the area to watch, even as they beat up on teams early scoring 90+ points, let’s wait and see how they defend good teams before we jump on the bandwagon. Ultimately, I just think this Conference is so deep and so talented they are going to be unable to simply outscore teams. The bottom of the Conference yes, but when they lose to Bama and give up 100 points let’s not be shocked. I think they have the potential to be a tourney team but again similar to St. John’s a year ago it can’t come together defensively in late February, by then it’s too late.

8.) Ole Miss (NR)

State of the Program:

Last year was a bit of a rollercoaster in year 1 under Chris Beard as they started 18-3 only to finish 2-9 down the stretch. It was a unique team to see under Beard as they were pathetic defensively at 141st, which was by far the worst of his career and certainly a point of emphasis for the program heading into year 2. Beard was able to retain much of his core with 3 double digit scorers back and he hit the transfer portal in a big way so a year 2 breakthrough could be on the way. Starters Murrell and Murray are back to lead the backcourt and Dre Davis has come in from Seton Hall to slot into the 3 spot. Pedulla and Barnes join Caldwell to make up a strong group of 6 at the 1-3 spots and a much better overall group than they had a year ago with even more offensive punch. Inside is a major shift, and likely a direct reflection of Beard’s unhappiness with their defensive efforts. Cisse and Sharp were the 7-footers that played the 5 last year, but neither were all that productive averaging a combined 8 ppg and 8.5 rpg. They were oftentimes more of a liabilty than an asset, and in response Beard has gotten smaller and more athletic, bringing in undersized bigs who were big time scorers last year in Mikeal Brown-Jones, Malik Dia and Ja’Von Benson. That group paired with Jaemyn Brakefield at the 4 and 5 spots are incredibly talented but even more importantly are much more versatile defensively. Yes, they brought in John Bol the 7’2″ brother of Bol Bol but I would be shocked if he’s the main man at the 5, even with his shot blocking ability he’s pretty raw in other areas and while he may see minutes at the 5 I would expect them to play small primarily. If I understand Beard correctly then these moves make perfect sense and tell us they will be better defensively this year, and all of the ability to score it should mean even more improvement on that end, which together should bring on higher expectations.

Prediction:

As I mentioned the roster construction is a tell, and if you study Beard and what he’s done over his career it makes perfect sense. At Texas Tech he turned them into a top-20 defensive team, doing so with small lineups that ratcheted up the pressure, resulting in them also being top-20 at forcing turnovers, and by the way this applies to his lone season at Texas as well. Last year they were sub-100 in both, and while the smaller lineups has caused them to be not so great on the defensive glass, it was never as bad as the Rebel’s 362nd rank last year. So, not only were they playing two not so mobile 7-footers that limited their ability to extend the defense and switch 1-5, they also couldn’t rebound, so the bad was far outweighing the good. Both Dia and Brown-Jones played the 5 last year at their respective spots, and both remind you of former Beard “big men” like Santos-Silva, Holyfield, Odiase and Zach Smith who all played the 5 for Beard at just 6’8″ and helped him create top-20 defenses at Tech. Am I predicting this Ole Miss team to go from 141st to top-20? No. But to get inside the top-50 with all of this offensive talent makes them a very viable threat in this Conference and they should find their way into the tourney in year two with Beard. I would be shocked if they don’t at least make huge strides on that end and a .500 finish in the SEC should get them in. They are not in the elite group at the top of the Conference, but the margins in the middle from 6-10 are razor thin and the ceiling here is being in that 6th to 7th range in this Conference and a dangerous team in March. With Beard’s March history they could be a nightmare for a 1 or 2 seed to see in the 2nd round.

9.) Mississippi St (NR)

State of the Program:

Mississippi St had made just 1 tourney in 13 seasons prior to the arrival of Chris Jans, who has gotten them to back-to-back tourney’s in his 2 seasons here. That’s a success story, and while they haven’t won a game in either trip, to immediately get the ship turned around is very impressive. Jans has a solid core of guys back from last year’s group and hit the transfer portal hard to fill in the gaps. Leading the way probably the most surprising FR from a year ago in Josh Hubbard, who was ranked 145th last year and averaged 17 ppg, somewhat quietly. He will be joined by transfers Claudell Harris, Riley Kugel and RJ Melendez who should all get run at the 2-3 spots, with Harris being the best shooter of the 3 and most likely starter. Kanye Clary is the other transfer addition in the backcourt, but is somewhat curious, as he is essentially a 2nd Josh Hubbard, below 6 ft but a very capable scorer on offense. My concern is does Jans plan to play 2 guys below 6 ft tall at the same time? He did play Hubbard at the off guard spot last year but had 6’2″ Dashawn Davis playing the point in that scenario. It’s probably not a huge deal but Hubbard and Clary are the best scorers on the roster and we should see them, at 5’10” and 5’11”, together in the backcourt at times which could make for some disadvantages defensively. Cam Matthews and KeShawn Murphy are back in the frontcourt, but the losses of Tolu Smith and Jimmy Bell have left a massive hole inside. Jans did get a promising prospect in the portal in Michael Nwoko, who was a 4 star prospect last year and played only 10 mpg behind Omier in Miami last year. He did have strong rebounding % numbers though so with more time could develop into something solid here. Outside of him is just more inexperience with Jeremy Foumena transfering in after a limited FR campaign at Rhode Island and Gai Chol who’s back after barely playing a year ago. If I was a betting man I would say Murphy, Matthews and Melendez will start at the 3-5 in a small lineup, but there is certainly an opening and plenty of young talent to try and fill it, they’re just all very inexperienced.

Prediction:

I’m having a hard time pegging this roster, as the transfers coming in are a bit different than what the team has looked like in the past. With Jeffries, Matthews and Smith inside they were a force on the offensive glass (top-25 last 2 seasons), which helped to make up for their inability to knock down shots. It seems like Jans has been willing to sacrifice some of the might inside to improve offensively, which we saw last year as they went from 176th to 73rd offensively. That’s a great improvement, but they conversely dipped from 9th to 22nd defensively. Overall that’s a trade you would make of course, but I think that is going to be an even more dramatic shift this year, with maybe even an inverse in their strengths. They have added quite a bit of shooting and offensive talent, mostly with Clary and Harris, but even Kugel and Melendez have promise. The frontcourt looks to be the new weakness without Smith and Bell anchoring the 5 spot, and their ability to dominate the glass may take a major hit if it’s all on Murphy and Matthews. However, one of the their strengths defensively has been to pressure the ball and force TO’s, which they could be more effective at with that versatile frontcourt that can switch/trap and make things uncomfortable. You see my struggle, there’s some areas that were strengths that could become weaknesses, some weaknesses that could become strengths, which ultimately leaves me with a massive ?. Overall, I actually think this is a slightly weaker team than last year due to the losses in physicality, even with a slight improvement shooting the ball. They don’t have the go-to post presence with Smith gone either so the scoring will be fully on the guards as well. I think they still have a shot to be a tourney team, but it could be an overall dip from last year’s team, especially with the SEC getting better all around them.

10.) Florida (NR)

State of the Program:

Last year was a strong step forward in year two for Todd Golden and this program as they went from 16-17 overall to 24-12 and a 7 seed in the tourney. They lost in R1 but still it was a much needed improvement and they’ll look to continue that positive momentum this year. Obviously, with me having them 10th in the league I don’t see that continuing, and that’s not really a slight toward Golden as a coach but more as a recruiter of talent. They lost a lot, with two key pieces in Pullin and Samuel exiting they have massive gaps to fill. Alijah Martin comes in from FAU to join Clayton Jr and Richard, and while he is talented that is a downgrade in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong Clayton and Richard are very solid, but for a team that struggled to defend and relied on that backcourt to outscore teams a downgrade there is concerning. Behind them they’ll be thin as well with Denzel Aberdeen back after playing sparingly along with FR Isaiah Brown. Brown is a physical athlete that gets downhill and finishes well but his jumper needs to develop before he’s a major factor offensively. Now we turn to the frontcourt, where centerpiece Tyrese Samuel who averaged 14 and 7 is gone, as well as key reserve Micah Handlogten to injury. To replace that production Golden brought in 6’9″ Sam Alexis from Chattanooga, who was very productive as a rebounder on both ends and as a shot blocker. However, that is going to be quite the adjustment going from SoCon play to the SEC so I’m not sure you can expect the exact same production, especially with the increase in athletes he’s facing. The other is Wazzu transfer Rueben Chinyelu, who has a similar skillset as he was a monster on the boards when he was in the game as his OREB % would have been top-10 had he qualified minutes wise. Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon are also back after playing quite a bit as FR, which gives them a group of 4 guys inside that all have much to prove but certainly aren’t guaranteed to make up for the loss in production. The one way this goes far better than I’m seeing is if the European transfers come in and are dominant. I can’t find hardly anything on big man Mikic so feel free to fill me in if he’s Jokic but I would guess that means he wasn’t highly sought after. The guard Klavzar has a good outside shot but I’m not convinced he’s ready physically to come in and be a major impact as a PG, but again in a world where I’m wrong on the Gators he would likely be a major factor.

Prediction:

Overall I still think Florida is going to be competitive as they have athletic bigs that can rebound which was huge for them last year as they were top-10 in offensive rebounding. They also have one of the best guards in the SEC in Walter Clayton Jr. Having them 10th feels like I’m writing them off, but this year in the SEC I legitimately think there are 10 teams that could conceivably get in the dance. The worry is defense, which was the achilles heel for what was a very good team last year that just lost too many games where they couldn’t get stops. They were honestly pretty bad on that end all around. They didn’t force TO’s (318th), fouled a ton (245th) and surprisingly struggled to finish possessions with a defensive rebound (168th) despite being so good on the offensive glass. They did play at the 17th fastest pace, but as we’ve spoken on with other fast paced teams that doesn’t mean you HAVE to give up a lot of points. It was no more apparent than their tourney game with Colorado in which they scored 100 points but gave up 102…in regulation. They lost 2 of their 3 leading scorers as well, so it’s no guarantee that they return as a top-15 offensive team either. Again, if the Europeans come in and have an impact that I’m not anticipating then maybe they’re better, but with all of this talent in this league and you’re a team that struggles to defend you’re going to have a hard time winning games. They have a pretty easy non-con schedule so they may be riding high coming in, but I do not expect them to be winning many games against the top-5 or so teams in the Conference. There will be several teams at the bottom that are beatable, but games like Tennessee/Texas at home in the first half of January will be massive in determining if this group can go dancing again.

11.) Missouri (NR)

State of the Program:

Before you say it yes I know Mizzou was 0-18 in SEC play a year ago, but there is a lot to work with here roster wise. Dennis Gates went from very high to very low in his 2 seasons thus far, getting the Tigers to the dance and securing their first tourney win since 2010 in year 1, all the way down to an 0-18 conference record. He is likely coaching for his job now as that kind of performance in a power conference is almost an auto hot-seat nomination. I mean, they finished 1-22 he can’t feel comfortable. In response he has LOADED up on talent, adding 6 transfers and 5 freshman to what already is a group of 5 returning. Not sure how he manages 16 guys, would think there’s a couple of redshirts here but still with that many guys surely he can find a group of 8-10 he can rely on to play hard night in and night out. He landed a couple huge mid-major scorers with Marques Warrick and Jacob Crews likely to come in, start and be a focal point of this year’s team. Tony Perkins is no slouch either, and he’s done it in the Big Ten and brings a level of physicality they did not have a year ago. Most importantly they all shot 40% or better from 3 last year which for a team ranked 277th in 3 point % that is a major upgrade. They also return guards Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill who may be forced to come off the bench this year but honestly that is where they probably should be if you want to be competitive. They may even find themselves riding the bench if the FR prove themselves, with the 6’5″ Annor Boateng the most likely to find the rotation. He is a big, strong guard that excels at getting downhill and finishing through contact. His jumper looks like it can develop into being a weapon but he may not be consistent early on. He seems like he’ll be too impactful to leave out of the rotation and could play the 2 or 3. The other wing that could come right in and play is Marcus Allen, who has a longer frame is more of wing than guard, with the ability to play the small ball 4 with his athleticism and length, similar to the likely starting 4 here Mark Mitchell. Next to Mitchell is a huge question mark, with 2 FR 7-footers incoming and Josh Gray transferring in after being a backup at S. Carolina. The two FR are wildy different, with Marshall being an absolute UNIT at 330 pounds, but he’s 2 inches shorter than Burns who is only around 200 pounds. No idea who wins playing time here but there’s a lot to work with and a lot of varying abilities which is promising.

Prediction:

We have seen Gates turn in two wildly different seasons with Mizzou so predicting how this will go is very difficult I’ll just be honest. What I can say is on paper there is more talent here than there was last year, specifically offensive talent. They were top-10 in offensive efficiency in year 1 under gates, but fell all the way to 136th, mostly due to their shooting woes falling from 17th to 202nd in effective FG%. Bringing in 3 guys who should start that shot 40%+ from 3 last year is certainly a step forward, and given the roster construction I would anticipate those being the 3 leading scorers here. They also added a ton of length and girth inside that they didn’t have last year, and frankly the frontcourt in general was just a tragedy a year ago. They were pathetic on the glass – 358th defensive rebounding and 256th offensive rebounding and while they blocked shots decently well they still were just 219th in 2 point % defense. Mitchell and Crews are massive upgrades both defensively and on the glass at the 3 and 4 spots, and the trio of new 5 men should produce at least 1 guy who can go get Gates some rebounds. That group should be a major step up in those two areas, which were as bad as it gets last year in major conference basketball. As rosy as all of this sounds it’s still not like I’m saying they are going to be world beaters, but when you go through a 1-22 stretch you absolutely need upgrading in order to even be slightly competitive. That’s my argument here, they should win 6-8 games in the SEC this year with all of this talent coming in. It may be hard for Gates to hold on to the locker room with so many mouths to feed but if he can get these guys to gel and play hard together their ceiling could be to be in the bubble conversation come February. I’m not predicting them to get into the tourney but they certainly aren’t going to be the punching bag they were last year.

12.) LSU (NR)

State of the Program:

Matt McMahon inherited a disaster left behind by Will Wade’s tumultuous departure, but after a tough year 1 (2-16 in SEC) they took a major step forward going 9-9 last year including a home win over Kentucky. It wasn’t always pretty but they did some good things in what was an overall good season for the program all things considered. There were several major weaknesses that stand out which were devastating as they killed their ability to win the possession battle. They didn’t take care of the ball (287th in TO%) and they couldn’t get a defensive rebound (294th). Much of the backcourt is gone which may be some addition by subtraction, especially considering McMahon was able to land a stud of a PG in Jordan Sears. He averaged over 20 ppg and they’ll hope he can come in and run the show alongside another transfer in Cam Carter. There’s several other options though to fill in the 2 and 3 spots, including Tyrell Ward and Mike Williams who both started at times a year ago. There’s also a very talented FR coming in as 6’5″ Vyctorius Miller is definitely going to push these guys for playing time. He is a good athlete for his size but his major weapon is his jumper as he is one of the better shooters in the class. The other FR guard coming in is Curtis Givens who may find some time behind Sears, although Williams played the point at times last year as well. Givens isn’t the most explosive athlete but has good feel and a good jump shot as well, giving you some Elliot Cadeau vibes. The frontcourt should be a bit smaller but more athletic with a trio of returning guys in Jalen Reed, Derek Fountain and Damion Collins making a good trio at the 4 and 5 spots. The other factor there should be FR Robert Miller III, who is a Jaren Jackson Jr style stretch 4 as he’s long and lanky with good quickness and can stretch out and knock down 3’s. I have no doubt he’ll find time with his ability and that gives them enough depth inside to have a chance after losing both starting 5 men. Overall there is more offensive punch here than a year ago but I’m not convinced this frontcourt is going to improve like they need to on the glass.

Prediction:

Overall there is more offensive punch here than a year ago but I’m not convinced this frontcourt is going to improve like they need to on the glass. The turnovers should improve with Sears in there to hold things down as a true PG that can also really score it. The group of Carter/Williams/Reed/Miller should be fine but nothing special, and that’s where the concerns start to come in. It is seemingly going to be all on this mid-major transfer Sears to create and make things happen in the halfcourt. That group of secondary guards is not scary by any means, but the good news is they can knock down shots. The frontcourt is also not going to be guys you can get it to on the block and watch go to work. They are more of slashers and bangers inside, needing to likely play in ball screen situations and catch lobs on a roll to be effective scorers. That’s why I think Miller could be a factor as he can stretch out and shoot it in pick and pop or kick out scenarios. That still all rides on Sears being a playmaker in ball screen situations, which is what I would expect to see a lot of. They also are relying essentially on the same group of forwards to somehow improve their 294th ranking on the defensive glass, which is a massive issue as winning the possession battle is critical if you want to win consistently. Overall I just don’t think the additions will be enough to both make up for what was lost and fix some of the major issues they had a year ago. Maybe the guys who are returning will develop and get much better, but something like rebounding is more of an effort and attitude problem than it is an ability you can develop. I suspect this LSU team misses the tourney once again, unless Sears comes in and looks like Bama’s Mark Sears, which I don’t see happening.

13.) Oklahoma (NR)

State of the Program:

The Porter Moser era at Oklahoma has largely been a disappointment, as they’ve now missed 3 straight tourney’s after reaching 8 out of 9 with Lon Kruger. They now enter the SEC hoping for some reprieve on the hoops side, but this year in basketball they might be in just as tough a situation. This is nearly a complete rebuild, even with 2 starters back when you only return 3 guys you’re basically creating a new team. Yes Sam Godwin and Luke Norweather are back after locking down the 5 spot last year, albeit without much production, and Jalon Moore will surely start again. Beyond them it’s all fresh meat and frankly it’s not all that inspiring compared to the other rebuilds the SEC has to offer. Duke Miles should come in and run the point, and Kobe Elvis is a very capable reserve there as well. They both are elevating the level of competition though so it remains to be seen how well they adjust. Brycen Goodine may be the most exciting, as he was a high volume scorer and shot an absurd 47% from 3, and while he is elevating in terms of competition shooting often translates better than playmaking and getting to the rim as a guard. Jadon Jones is another mid-major guard coming in, but he’ll likely be surpassed by Glenn Taylor who was just a role player last year but in year’s prior was a big time scorer at Oregon St. That group of 5 figures to hold down the 1-3 spots. Coming in to help Godwin and Norweather is Mohamed Wague who is at his 3rd stop in 3 years and struggled to hold onto a role with Bama last year. All in all it’s not an overly impressive group on paper, and while I do think Moser is a good coach he has his hands full once again.

Prediction:

Moser’s teams always play hard and are usually disciplined on defense. The issue has consistently been scoring the ball and more specifically knocking down outside shots. This will be especially important this year as they really don’t have an offensive threat inside, so the offense is going to be totally on the backcourt. The percentages tell you they should be better than they’ve ever been shooting from outside, but all they have to do is crack the top-100 in 3 point % to do that. Moser has always been a coach that wants to take the air out of the ball and play at a snails pace, and while that can be effective, if you don’t have guys that can knock down shots or a dominant big to play through it gets difficult. Shooting also isn’t just an on paper thing, it becomes very difficult to shoot at a high percentage if you can’t generate open looks. That seems to be a major issue, which you can see with guys like McCollum and Uzan last year who shot 31% and 29% from 3 respectively after averaging 36% and 41% prior. They were forced to jack up bad shots because as a team they couldn’t generate good looks in the halfcourt, and they certainly weren’t getting out in transition to get good looks either. I don’t see those issues changing, so while these newcomers have good percentages it could be a struggle once again if things don’t improve in the halfcourt. I predict another missed tourney and a potential firing of Moser after yet another disappointing year. This is a program that Kelvin Sampson and Lon Kruger had as perennial contenders, so I don’t see 4 straight missed tourney’s as being good enough.

14.) S. Carolina (NR)

State of the Program:

South Carolina had to be the surprise of the season last year, going from 4-14 in the SEC to 13-5 and getting to the NCAA tourney for the first time since Frank Martin led them to the Final 4 in 2017. It didn’t go quite as well as it did in 2017, but it was still a major step forward for Lamont Paris as he tries and cement himself as the HC of the future here. With all of that said it might seem a bit disrespectful to have them this low, but frankly the amount of talent that left the team compared to what is incoming is stark. 3 of their 4 leading scorers are gone, with only Collin Murray-Boyles back as a double figure scorer. Now, he does have All-Conference breakout potential this year as he was starting dominate down the stretch, but the drop off in guard play might be too significant for that to matter. They lost Meechie and Cooper and brought in just Jamarii Thomas from Norfolk St and a FR to replace them. Thomas was very productive let’s not get it twisted, but he was also inefficient and will now be tasked with creating and controlling this offense that under Paris is going to take the air out of the ball. Cam Scott is the FR likely to come in and make an impact as he’s a smooth customer, reminding you of a Paul George stylistically as he can really shoot it and also has the ability to get his own shot and has the length and athleticism to be a problem in transition and as a defender. Given this roster I think he comes right in and starts alongside Thomas with Myles Stute back and playing the 3. Murray-Boyles at the 4 leaves the 5 spot that BJ Mack and Josh Gray have vacated. On the roster you have Nick Pringle from Bama who has had issues with his motor but in big games has produced including a 16 and 11 game in the Elite 8 last year. That isn’t the norm though and while he may start who knows how it’ll go. 7 footer Jordan Butler comes in with little experience but was a top-100 recruit last year and Zach Davis is back and at 6’8″ he could play the 4 in a small ball lineup next to Murray-Boyles. What I’m getting at with all of this is the questions are numerous outside of Murray-Boyles being very good.

Prediction:

I do not expect a repeat of last year win total wise, as even with the 13 SEC wins last year the schedule was friendly and Kenpom was never all that high on the Gamecocks as they finished just 54th there. That is probably a better reflection of who they were, even though they beat Tennessee one Tuesday night last year and stamped themselves as a tourney team. I would expect regression back to who they are statistically, and with a few more difficult non-con games and a deeper SEC this year it’s going to be tough sledding. At the end of the day I think they lost more than they added and their extremely slow pace and not so great defensive numbers meant they played a ton of close games regardless of who they were playing. That contributed to the bad statistical rankings and with a little bad luck could send this season into a spiral if it continues. I understand the excitement with Murray-Boyles, and who knows maybe Nick Pringle has a breakout year and plays consistently well and they dominate together inside. Maybe this FR comes in and can score 12-15 ppg and replace what was lost with Meechie and maybe Thomas comes in and replaces Cooper at the point and can control the offense and knock down shots just like he could. If everything goes right maybe they’re in the bubble conversation come February, but that’s far too many question marks for me to hitch my wagon to this horse.

15.) Georgia (NR)

State of the Program:

Mike White enters year 3 in a difficult rebuild, but has some positive momentum when you start to dig deep. While they went just 6-12 in SEC play in both years they took a major step forward analytically last year, jumping from 154th to 84th overall per Kenpom. They are getting better but the Conference is also getting better, and adding teams like Texas and Oklahoma only adds to the challenge. The fantastic news is White is bringing in his guys and getting them to stick around, as the 3 top-100 recruits he got last year are all back after contributing as FR. Silas Demary definitely had the biggest impact starting all but 1 game as a true FR, but both Cain and James started at times and played more and more down the stretch. That would have to give you some hope if you’re a Georgia basketball fan, of which there are probably only few. More hope comes via the transfer portal, with Dakota Laffew and De’Shayne Montgomery coming over from Mount St. Mary’s. They were the two best players on the team, and Montgomery was a FR, so that’s a lot of potential there especially with how they shot the ball. They did however struggle with TO’s contributing to MSM’s 342nd TO rate, so that’s concerning with an elevation in competition. He also brought in Vandy transfer Tyrin Lawrence to throw in the mix, which gives them a solid but not spectacular group of 5 guys to play the 1-3 spots. The frontcourt is definitely looking like the weak spot though, with two less than spectacular transfers coming in and then 2 FR. Abson and Godfrey are not long term solutions but will help give depth, and Godfrey could take a step forward with more of an opportunity after being buried on Clemson behind a solid group. The FR are exciting guys for the future, with 5-star Asa Newell leading the way as a slashing forward that uses his length and athleticism to be a menace on the boards and when he gets it in position he attacks the rim and with his bounce finishes strong above the rim. As a 5 man Somto Cyril is a great athlete with long arms that help him rebound and block shots at an elite level. He won’t add much offense but will finish strong if he gets setup within 10 feet. Dylan James is back after playing the 4 as a FR as well, so there’s 5 guys here looking for time at the 4-5 spots inside. That’s a group of 10 that is young, with just 2 Seniors and 6 FR/SO White will look to develop this core into something that can really compete a year from now.

Prediction:

Overall with a Conference this deep I do not expect big things from Georgia with such a young team. I do think White is a very good coach and is right at the beginning of potentially building something here. If he’s able to get some traction and get these young guys to buy in and stick around for next year then I would be a lot higher on that group of 8 guys coming back next year with maybe a transfer or two to bring some punch. The way they exceed my expectations would be to be an even better defensive team than they were a year ago, as they improved to 58th from 132nd, so another big jump there could make them pesky. That’s such a tall task though for a group of young guys to play at that high of a level for the first time though, and while the FR have rim protection potential, it takes a lot more communication wise to defend at a high level than being able to block a shot here and there. Again, there should be some hope for the future with White as he’s starting to get some traction, I’m more looking at what happens to the roster after the season, as the real traction will come with getting these guys to stick around to help him truly build something competitive. The breakthrough won’t happen this year in my opinion, but it might be right around the corner.

16.) Vanderbilt (NR)

State of the Program:

This Vandy program is in a complete free fall, mostly thanks to hiring and now firing Jerry Stackhouse after 4 miserable seasons. They bring in JMU HC Mark Byington who at the very least enters the program with a history of building a program into a contender. This is a complete and total rebuild essentially, with just 2 guys coming back who both barely played a year ago and 10 transfers. The transfers will play all the minutes, with guys like Jason Edwards and AJ Hoggard leading the way. I’m not going to sit here and breakdown every transfer and pretend like this group has a chance to be relevant in any way. I’m not saying Byington can’t turn Vandy into a team to worry about at some point, but in year 1 with this caliber of class incoming (ranked 16th out of 16 in the SEC and 99th overall by On3) this is as big a mountain to climb as exists in major college basketball right now.

Prediction:

This was as easy a decision to put Vandy last as it was to put Alabama 1st for me. There’s an enormous amount of question marks here, especially in the frontcourt. The only thing we know for sure is that Byington always has his teams playing a fast tempo, and with guys like Hoggard and Huffman running the show as distributors they should be able to play somewhat effectively out in transition. They have 7 guys on the roster that shot 35% or less from though, so I don’t expect shot making to be a strength. They also have a glaring lack of size inside, with just 6’9″ Wright and 6’8″ Carey and Roberts to fill out the 4 and 5 spots. Again, they can play fast and be versatile defensively with that lineup but the glass will likely be a major weakness. Overall, the lack of talent here just stands out when you’re looking a power conference teams across the country, with even DePaul and Chris Holtmann having a more promising roster than this. I do not expect many wins here, and if you’re an SEC team you will only be scared of playing Vandy because if you somehow lose it’ll be a stain on your resume. Hopefully there’s something positive for Byington to hold on to so he can keep some guys around and attract more talent next year.