Pre-Season Prediction

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1. ) Kansas (#2)

State of the Program:

Last year was a disappointing finish by Kansas standards, especially considering they entered the season AP pre-season #1. They finished tied for 5th in the Big 12 which is the worst they’ve finished under Self (pretty absurd) and got blown out by Gonzaga in the 2nd round of the tourney. They did play the final 3 games and several throughout the year without McCullar which was a huge factor, but he’s gone for good now as is Johnny Furphy, so there’s production to be replaced as they try and live up to the lofty expectations that have been placed yet again. The reason for the optimism is the reinforcements are strong, with a guard duo in AJ Storr and Zeke Mayo that gives them more than enough to replace and even improve upon those lost. They also brought in Rylan Griffen from Alabama who brings his sharpshooting ability to a team that struggled to knock down shots a year ago (195th 3pt %). That trio of guards next to returning PG Dajuan Harris Jr gives them a strong group of 4 guys that give them far more shot making ability than they had a year ago. They also have a deep group of backups that will be fighting for time behind them in Shakeel Moore, Noah Shelby, David Coit, Elmarko Jackson and Jamari McDowell. Bill Self is not messing around, with far more talent than can see the court he’s sending a clear message last year the backcourt wasn’t good enough. Inside it’s a familiar duo with both Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams Jr back, and behind them is Zach Clemence fresh off a redshirt and exciting FR Flory Bidunga. Bidunga is an athletic rim protector that finishes strong and plays above the rim. He doesn’t have a diverse offensive skillset by any means, but should be strong as a shot blocker and rebounder out of the gates in a role behind Dickinson. Overall the talent here is obviously quite a bit deeper than a year ago, with more guys who can get their own shots as well as knock down open looks generated by others, so the repeat as AP #1 pre-season checks out on paper.

Prediction:

It’s pretty obvious based on the roster and the improvements they’ve made on paper that things should go well this year for Bill Self and the Jayhawks. They still have Dickinson to play through and the uber talented Adams as well to form a strong and experienced frontcourt. The backcourt is obviously the difference maker though, with Storr and Mayo the x-factors as they were high level scorers last year and if they can come in and be dependable scorers that will allow Harris to play his natural role as a distributor. They were honestly pretty mid in most categories last year, but one thing that stuck out to me was the possession battle, and not necessarily losing it but not impacting it positively. What I mean is they did well to limit offensive rebounds and didn’t turn it over a ton, although it could and should be better, but they were pretty bad at getting their own offensive rebounds (286th) and forcing turnovers (207th). I would imagine both of those are going to be points of emphasis, and frankly with a duo like Dickinson and Adams there’s no reason they can’t get more offensive boards. We’ll see if the new guards will be able to ramp up the pressure a little better, but they were still top-20 defensively despite not turning teams over, mostly due to the shot blockers/alterers inside and strong rebounding. We’re splitting hairs though trying to find weaknesses, as the biggest one was outside shooting and they added 3 certified buckets in the transfer portal in Storr, Mayo and Griffen to handle that. I expect that to be the difference as Kansas should fulfill what most have as their ceiling, winning the Big 12 again and being a factor for a National title. It’s certainly not guaranteed, but with Self at the helm and this much talent on the roster you’d be a fool not to at least expect them to be in contention on the national scale.

2.) Iowa St (#5)

State of the Program:

I would just like to remind everyone where this Iowa St program was when TJ Otzelberger took it over in 2022. They went just 2-22 in 2021 including an 0-18 conference record, similar to DePaul last season. Is anyone expecting Chris Holtmann to go to DePaul and take them to the Sweet 16 in year 1 and get them to a 2nd place Conference finish and a 2nd Sweet 16 in year 3? I would highly doubt it, but that’s exactly what Otzelberger did with this program in arguably the toughest basketball conference in the country. He’s 3 for 3 in getting to the dance and has a 4-3 record in that tourney with a Big 12 tourney championship to his name as well. Now that we’re all appreciating what has been done here let’s get to business. The backcourt is largely back, with 4 double digit scorers all returning from a year ago including the starters at the 1-3 spots in Gilbert, Lipsey and Momcilovic. Curtis Jones is also back to play the 6th man role and transfer Nate Heise and FR Nojus Indrusaitis will look to find a role as well. Heise is a plus shooter and good rebounder for his size and the FR is a marksman from 3 that has a good defensive motor as well, a requirement to play for Otzelberger. All in all that group should enter the season with a ton of cohesion and be strong right out of the gate. The frontcourt has been rebuilt, and frankly it might be better than a year ago. The duo of Josh Jefferson and Dishon Jackson should be the starting 4-5 unless they want to go small. Jefferson is a physical stretch 4, and while his shooting numbers from 3 don’t look great he started just 2-26 from 3 last year and then went 50% over 17 games prior to his injury. He rebounds well, has good instincts as a defender and does not shy away from contact, exactly what Otzelberger wants. Jackson will be a better rim protector than Jefferson and excels on the glass as well. Behind them Chatfield profiles similar to Jackson, a top rebounder and physical presence, you could say Coach has a type. They will play Momcilovic at the 4 as well like last year so that trio rotating with him as well will be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Prediction:

The Cyclones are going to be exactly what we think they are, as Otzelberger quickly established an identity here. They’re going to make life miserable for you, force turnovers at an elite rate (2nd nationally) and bully you into mistakes. Part of that is shown in their tendency to foul a lot (241st) but also in their non-steal TO% (9th). Their relentless pressure forces teams to travel or throw the ball away or if you beat them they’re disciplined enough to take a charge. That’s the culture on defense and it’s been consistent year over year here since he took over (5th, 8th, 1st overall defensive efficiency). The improvements have been and continue to need to be made on the other end. They’ve progressed from 171st-114th-52nd over the years, but to get over the hump and get to a Final 4 it needs to continue to improve. Part of that improvement could come from FT’s, as they were just 264th in FT% and were anchored by departed bigs Robert Jones and Hason Ward who were about 55%. Jefferson and Jackson were both above 70%, so I would expect their numbers to rise as a team and that will no doubt help them score more on a possession by possession basis. The guard play should be similar if not better with some development from the returning core, so the possibility that they are well inside the top-50 is strong. Pairing that with another top-5 defensive season and you have the makings of an extremely difficult team to deal with. They don’t have the firepower or sexy name recognition of the other elite teams in the country, but make no mistake the Cylcones are going to be a nightmare, especially for the rest of the Big 12 heading to Hilton. They can win the league, and this could be the season Otzelberger gets them to their first final 4 in the modern era.

3.) Houston (#10)

State of the Program:

Houston under Kelvin Sampson is one of the premier programs in college basketball right now, having reached 5 straight Sweet 16’s, including an Elite 8 and Final 4 trip. They haven’t been able to break through for a national title, but to go from the American Conference to the Big 12 and win the thing in year 1 is very impressive. Plus, last year’s team would have had a real shot in my opinion if they didn’t lose Jamal Shead to injury in the first half of the Duke game, not to mention Tugler in early March, but I digress. They will have to find a way to win without Shead as he exits the program leaving a gaping hole in the backcourt. The good news is they are right up there with Purdue and Marquette when it comes to returning talent, as Sampson has these guys ready to die for Houston, they aren’t going anywhere. 4 starters are back, with Cryer and Sharp in the backcourt and Roberts, Francis and Tugler back in the frontcourt with Tugler the likely starter now that he’s healthy again. Obviously the biggest question is how do they replace Shead? The reinforcement brought in is Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan who should operate as the PG and at 6’4″ gives them good size at the position. The biggest key for me is his passing ability, particularly in ball screen situations as I think with these athletic forwards and Sharp and Cryer as catch and shoot options we’ll be seeing Uzan operate out of ball screens a ton. I think as a distributor he’s going to be a fine replacement for Shead, but the ancillary guys may need to step up their scoring volume a bit. They are also going to benefit from better depth, especially from guys like Tugler and Arceneaux being back from injury. By the NCAA tourney they were down to only Roberts and Francis inside, forced to play small if either went to the bench and the wing depth was beginning to deplete, especially when foul trouble occurred. They also welcome in FR Mercy Miller who is the next primary scoring guard at Houston, as he’s a true 3 level scorer with a smooth jumper and the size to excel at Houston. We’ll see how he develops as a defender, which could limit his time as a FR, but his offensive ability may allow him to jump some of the other guys on the roster. There’s a ton of depth and consistency here, so Houston should come out humming early.

Prediction:

We know who Houston is going to be defensively with a strong culture and group of leaders that should enable them to be one of, if not the best, defensive unit in the nation. The big question mark is how Uzan fits as the replacement to Shead, who was their best offensive weapon and also a menace defensively. The reason this is so important is guys like Cryer and Sharp are not effective creators offensively, and while they can at times get a shot for themselves, creating for others is not what they do. The only other guy who they could really play through last year was Roberts in the post, and we’ll probably see some of that this year as well, but it really is going to be on the shoulders of Uzan. That is why I dropped them to 3rd in this Conference and 10th nationally. It cannot be understated how much Shead meant to them on both ends, so I do see a slight step backwards offensively for Houston even with the addition of Uzan. They were 19th last season in offensive efficiency, and I could see them falling out of the top-25, although their propensity to dominate the offensive glass will help. It’s frankly all about Uzan, and I’ll be watching them early to see how he fits in and how he runs this offense. Maybe they choose to play through Roberts even more in the post too, we’ll see how that goes, especially given Tugler and Francis will be next to him with zero outside shooting ability. They’ve been top-10 defensively for 4 years straight, there’s zero question what we’ll get from them there, and they’ve been top-11 in offensive rebounding the last 5 years. The identity is clear, but will they have enough firepower in the halfcourt offensively to get past teams in the Sweet 16/Elite 8 that can challenge them? They’ll beat up on the bottom half of this conference, but a team like Kansas with all their firepower on offense and a scrappy defense or a team like Iowa St that can match their physicality are probably slightly better due to Houston’s challenges in the halfcourt offensively. I think Houston is going to be very good, top-10 good, but this is why I think they fall short of winning the Big 12, and yes I picked and successfully bet on them last year to win the league so there’s no anti-Houston bias here. Great team, great program, wouldn’t bet on them to win it all.

4.) Arizona (#12)

State of the Program:

The Tommy Lloyd experience has been an interesting one for Arizona, as they’ve been wildly successful in the regular season, resulting in a 1 or 2 seed each of his 3 seasons at the helm. However, it hasn’t translated to March success as they haven’t gotten past the Sweet 16 and lost once in the first round to a 15 seed. They have a clear identity though, playing fast and free offensively resulting in a top-11 offensive rank each of the 3 years as well. They’ve just had issues on defense and with matching teams physicality. This year they’ll have to replace 4 starters to keep the strong run of success going, and moving to the Big 12 only adds to the challenge. They do get leading scorer Caleb Love back though, along with promising backups from a year ago in Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis to join him in the backcourt. Those 3 along with transfer Anthony Dell’Orso will be the rotation at the 1-3 spots, and Dell’Orso is someone to be excited about. He is a perfect replacement for Pelle Larsson as he has essentially the same build and skillset, shooting it well from outside and having the athleticism to excel downhill. That’s a thin rotation but Lloyd usually only plays about 8 guys so those 4 should be perfect, with maybe reserve Conrad Martinez getting a few minutes as the 9th man. The group of 4 inside is going to be strong as well, with returning big man Krivas back after a promising FR season behind Ballo. He looks primed to be very productive at the 5, and at 7’2″ gives them the 5 man presence they’ve always had under Lloyd. At the 4 will likely be Oakland transfer Trey Townsend who many may remember from their upset of Kentucky, and man did I fall for him in that game as he can really do everything as a stretch 4. His competition for minutes there will likely be incoming FR Carter Bryant, who has similar profile as a stretch 4, but he is a bit lankier and more of shooter/slasher than Townsend who can operate out of the post as well. There is also Tennessee transfer Tobe Awaka, but I actually think he could play the 5 behind Krivas in a smaller lineup as he is extremely physical and rebounds extremely well. They don’t really have much experience behind him either, with just Veesar and the raw FR Stephan who likely needs time to develop. The backcourt is pretty set in stone but Lloyd has some options and versatility with this frontcourt group, as Bryant could even play the 3 in a big lineup to spell Dell’Orso.

Prediction:

Clearly there’s a ton of talent here even with all of the losses they have incurred. I think Lewis and Bradley are going to fill in just fine as a duo to replace Boswell. Love will be Love, and while I’m not the biggest fan there’s no denying he can score. Dell’Orso is Larsson 2.0 and Townsend and Krivas will be super productive inside. The bench should be solid as well, as they have enough depth for Lloyd to be comfortable as he’s not a guy who like to play 9 or 10 guys. He should quickly find a group of 8 or max 9 that will be able to consistently score. The one spot where I could see a problem potentially is on the glass, with Ballo and Johnson out they lose 2 great rebounders that helped them be top-20 in offensive rebounding and top-10 in defensive rebounding. Townsend and Krivas should be solid, along with Awaka, but those are big shoes to fill. Even in the loss to Clemson in the Sweet 16 last year that duo had 12 offensive boards combined. That’s elite not just solid. So, we may see a step back on the boards, even if still good, and we may see a step back scoring as well. I’m not convinced of this, but there is a chance guys like Lewis and Bradley don’t handle the Big 12 physicality well or even just lose efficiency with more volume. Plus they’re relying on Dell’Orso who is making a big jump in competition. I still believe they will be top-15 good, but not good enough to come into the Big 12 and win the league right away. It could be that a lot of their regular season success was in part because they got to beat up on a bad Pac-12, at least the bottom half of it. This league is no joke aside from maybe 2 programs this year. They certainly didn’t have to go to places like Hilton, Allen Fieldhouse or down to Houston for that dog fight (who beat them in 2022 Sweet 16). They feel like a 4 seed team to me, as outside of Love there are a lot of unproven guys at this level who have to step up and fill massive voids. I’ll think they’ll do a pretty good job of doing so but it won’t be as easy in this Conference to get 27+ wins. Solid season, but given the success of the Lloyd era it probably will be the worst during his tenure.

5.) Baylor (#15)

State of the Program:

Similar to Virginia, Baylor broke through a few years ago to win a National Championship and haven’t made it out of the first weekend since (3 straight R2 losses). Scott Drew has of course done a great job to turn Baylor into a perennial contender as they’ve been a 1, 1, 3 and 3 seed the last 4 seasons though so you certainly can’t complain if you’re a Baylor fan since you have the Natty under your belt. Still, they’ll enter this season with no remaining holdovers from that championship team so it’s a new era and time to find some more postseason success with these newcomers. Langston Love and Jayden Nunn are back after good years last year, but the rest of the lineup is going to be all new guys. Leading the way are 2 guys we all know very well in Jeremy Roach from Duke and Norchad Omier from Miami. Both guys have been to a Final 4 during their careers so they bring a ton of experience along with their abilities. Roach will be the starting PG and Omier will start inside, pretty easy call there. There’s some question marks after that though as these FR incoming are going to be hard not to start. VJ Edgecombe is almost assuredly a starter right away as he’s as good a scoring guard as you’ll see coming out of HS. He can score it at all 3 levels, and while he’s a bit undersized he uses his body well and has the quickness to create space. He may just come in here and lead the team in scoring in year 1. Rob Wright should backup Roach, but Asemota, although lower ranked, may have a better shot at a big role just due to his size and their lack of depth at the 4 spot. He is a good athlete that can hit stand still shots, and with his size has strong 3 and D potential. It’s really a big question besides Omier who will play in the frontcourt with Ojanwuna back after playing the backup 5 man, Njonga who redshirted and then the FR Croatian Dubravcic. Marino is a skilled big man but he’s wiry and worries me as far as his physicality. Frankly I have no idea how this will go, but the most experienced duo would be Omier and Ojanwuna, but neither can shoot so I wouldn’t be shocked if Asemota finds his way to the 4 spot early and often as the Bridges replacement.

Prediction:

Baylor has been elite offensively for years now under Scott Drew and I have no doubt that will continue with this group of guards he has and Omier inside. The big difference over the past couple of years has been the drop off defensively. They went on a 3 year stretch where they were 4th, 22nd and 13th defensively but over the past 2 years have been just 107th and 72nd. That’s just not good enough to win this Conference or have consistent success in March. I don’t have a ton of confidence that is going to improve, especially with Omier coming from Miami where they never defended well and on top of that the reliance on FR. Roach is a good perimeter defender, but outside of that there isn’t much that I can see to convince me they will vastly improve. Kenpom does have them 23rd preseason but I have a hard time figuring out where that 50 spot improvement comes from. As good as I believe they will be offensively, and as excited as I am about watching the FR coming in you have to have a ceiling on a team that is likely to struggle defensively. Similar to Arizona they feel like a 4 seed to me and are a tier below the Kansas/Iowa St/Houston trio in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong they will be an unbelievably good offensive team with these shot makers as Roach/Love/Nunn were all 43%+ last year and Edgecombe surely to be at least mid to high 30’s and Omier is a load inside. I just am not going to hitch my wagon to a team that can’t consistently get stops. Still a good season is ahead but the top-10 ranking is a little pre-mature in my opinion.

6.) Cincinnati (#24)

State of the Program:

Wes Miller has done a good job to bring his guys into this program and develop some consistency and stability in a world where that’s increasingly hard to do. They were young last season in year 1 in the Big 12 but still were very competitive and finished 7-11 in Conference play. They return 4 starters from last year’s group and have brought in some key talent to help them improve as well. Guys like Thomas, Skillings and Lukosius should be the starting backcourt and Badaogo is back to start at the 5. Jizzle James is back after a strong FR year as the 6th man which should continue to be his role and CJ Fredrick is back as well after battling injuries. That right there is a talented and cohesive group of 6, but the additions have a chance to elevate the program even more. The most promising is Texas transfer Dillon Mitchell who is a fantastic fit at the 4 with that starting group. Although Lukosius could be the 4 man and they could start James in a smaller lineup, but he wasn’t a great rebounder and is more of spot shooter, so it really depends on what Miller wants and may be matchup dependent. Connor Hickman is a sharpshooting guard that could find a role as well off the bench and Paige will be the perfect backup 5. I love the roster construction here by Miller, and while they don’t have the top end talent of some of the other teams in the Conference they have enough to take a step forward from last year. The FR Betsey is the last guy that might crack into the lineup but there is a lot in front of him to pass up talent wise. He is an athletic wing that could play the 3 or 4 and has a decent looking jumper with ability to get his own shot. He looks a little raw with it in his hands but the potential to be great is certainly there down the road.

Prediction:

Last year they were a really good defensive team and I look for that to continue, especially with all of the returning guys and the addition of Mitchell and his athleticism, shot blocking and rebounding only strengthen that. I would expect another top-20 season on that end, but the other end is where we’re going to focus as that was a big time deficiency. They really struggled to hit outside shots, with James, Thomas and Skilings all below 30% from 3 helping them rank just 226th in that category. Hickman was obviously brought in to help that, but honestly they really just need those guys to put in the work and improve because they’re very talented in every other area. James and Skillings were both young so I still have some faith they can take a step forward, but they may cede time to guys like Fredrick or Hickman if they’re able to knock down shots. Their 79th ranking offensively is just not going to cut it if they want to take a step forward, and while they should still be very good on the glass (15th OReb 35th Dreb). It really comes down to making more shots, even from the FT line as they shot a pathetic 68% from the line last year. These are things that can improve with off-season work, and with the added competition for minutes I wouldn’t be surprised to see the younger guys elevate their games. I look for Cincy to be a tourney team this year, with a top-20 defensive unit that will secure the glass. They’re pretty solidly behind that upper group talent wise but the cohesion and defense is what gives them the chance to knock 1 or 2 of them off as they try and build a worthy resume. They should be a fringe top-25 team that probably is somewhere between 20-30 overall, and after all the changes losing Cronin and moving conferences they’ll be glad to get back dancing and back on track as a program.

7.) Texas Tech (NR)

State of the Program:

Grant McCasland had a really good year all things considered as Texas Tech was a bit of a surprise as a 6 seed in the NCAA tourney, but it ended in round 1. There’s a decent core back from last year’s group as well, especially in today’s environment to get 4 guys back who heavily contributed while healthy at least means you aren’t fully rebuilding like so many but just reloading. Leading the group is JT Toppin who should come right in and start in the frontcourt, looking to help them get better on the glass and add some rim protection. Tech played small quite often last year so I have no doubt Topping will play both the 4 and 5 given his abilities and length, but Federiko Federiko will also provide some depth at the 5 as well, so they won’t be as thin upfront as last year. Williams is back after starting at the 4, but at just 6’6″ and at 46% from 3 he can easily slide to the 3 in a bigger lineup or play the 4 next to either of those guys. Cambridge also started the first 8 games prior to injury and can similarly play those two spots so once he’s fully healthy they’ll be deep at wing. At PG they brought in one of the leaders in assists last year Elijah Hawkins who gives them a much better playmaker for others than they had a year ago. McMillan will likely join him in the backcourt but they’ll be deep there as well as Walton is a great shooter and he’s back along with transfer Overton who should have a role off the bench. That group is going to be the core of what we see this year, and hopefully they have some better injury luck as if they do they can be competitive once again.

Prediction:

Ultimately in year 2 I think they have a very similar year, but a shift in strengths. They were actually pretty efficient offensively last year as they had a premier scorer in Pop Isaacs and a Robin to his batman in Joe Toussaint. Those guys are both gone and they take 27 ppg with them, with a more pass first PG incoming I think they will have a bit less punch offensively. However, their biggest weakness last year was on defense, specifically because they had no paint presence and had to play really small. The addition of JT Toppin gives them a guy that is both a great rebounder and shot blocker, so they should improve on bad defensive rebounding (228th) and shot blocking (297th). Even with those issues they were 65th defensively, so with Federiko also entering the fold I really think they get better and improve, especially with McCasland’s history having N. Texas a top-25 defensive team his last 2 years. The guards are certainly going to have to step up their scoring, but even if they aren’t as good offensively I think they will get stops more consistently and be right in the range of a 6-8 seed this year again. It’s also important to not they do not have the depth they had a year ago, so an injury or two could really hamper them, especially to Toppin or Federiko as they’ll have to go small again if they aren’t on the floor. With all of that said, they’re not going to win the league but it’s going to be no fun for teams heading to Lubbock this year no doubt.

8.) Kansas St (NR)

State of the Program:

Jerome Tang is now 1 for 2 when it comes to building this K-State roster, as none of his teams have had many returning players, he’s used the transfer portal to build each team. Last year he missed on the guards as they couldn’t hit shots and turned it over a ton. This year is an extremely talented group that I genuinely think could come together and be a real problem in the way they were in year 1 under Tang. Leading the way is PG Dug McDaniel who is a big upgrade over what they had as he should run the show and had a lower TO rate than any of their guards a year ago and was more efficient shooting than Perry was. After him it’s less certain who exactly is going to start but there’s deep competition at the other spots with potential lineup versatility. Achor Achor and Coleman Hawkins certainly figure to be major factors and could play together as the 3-4 in a big lineup or the 4-5 in a smaller one. They have Onyenso and Fall who were both high recruits and have a ton of upside as they’re great athletes that can block shots and rebound at the 5 though, so Tang will have options in terms of how he wants to play. Next to McDaniel there’s a trio of options that can play the 2-3 spots with Max Jones the most promising but all 3 were effective outside shooters so expect to see some of CJ Jones and Brenden Hausen. The returning guys should continue to come off the bench with Rich having a decent FR year and potential at the 3 spot.

Prediction:

The exciting thing about this team to me is McDaniel operating as a distributor with guys like Achor and Hawkins that can be deadly as pick and pop/roll guys. Yes Achor can go get his own as well so it’s not all on McDaniel but having shooters all around him is going to make his assist numbers go up for sure. They have been 25th and 27th defensively under Tang so far so I expect defense to continue to be a strength, especially with all the length and athleticism he has added in the frontcourt. They should be one of the better shot blocking teams and should improve rebounding wise from their terrible numbers last year. They were destroyed on the possession battle, ranking 345th in TO rate and 249th securing defensive rebounds. Improvement in both of those areas will help a ton, but they were also just 285th in 3 point shooting. With 6 guys added to the roster that all shot 37% or better from 3 they almost certainly will improve from their putrid 31.8% from a year ago. Those factors are all critical to me having them this high, which I felt the need to lay out given many places have them a few spots lower. Tang is a really good HC, just didn’t quite have the talent last year to actually succeed, as TO’s and shooting really come down to the guys on the floor executing most of the time. This group has a lot more promise and I do think their ceiling is to get into the dance as like an 8 or 9 seed with some firepower to make some noise. I don’t think they have a shot to win the league by any means but they should be pesky. Of course as with all of this overhauls it has a chance to crash and burn but I do believe in Tang as he’s done this before and has succeeded. Expectations should at least be to compete and be in the bubble conversation as March approaches.

9.) BYU (NR)

State of the Program:

Well Mark Pope is off to greener pastures in Kentucky but he leaves the program still without a tournament win since 2011 when Jimmer Fredette took the nation by storm. The Cougars have taken a chance hiring first time College HC in Kevin Young. For those that don’t know (which was me until I had to write this) Young does have HC experience overseas as well as in the NBA D-League. He has been an Assistant in the NBA for years now and looks to finally make his name in the HC ranks. Pope did leave behind the core of a group that was a 6 seed last year and performed well in year 1 in the Big 12. Many scoffed at my 6th place prediction a year ago, but they in fact ended up t-5th and were solid despite many not seeing them coming. I do have some more hesitation this year though with their leading scorers Johnson and Robinson leaving the program but they did play a lot of guys last year and have a nucleus back to give Young some stability in year 1. Traore, Knell, Saunders and Hall were all major contributors last year and guys like Dawson Baker and Trey Stewart will now have the opportunity to step into larger roles and should be productive. My concern is in the frontcourt, as Traore is good but he’s undersized at 6’6″ and they lost the other 3 bigs that played last year. Keba Keita is in from Utah and he’ll likely be a mainstay at the 5, but beyond him they’ll have to play very small. They have just Rutgers transfer Mawot Mag and promising freshman Kanon Catchings to play the 3 or stretch 4. Catchings was a Purdue commit that flipped to BYU over the summer likely in search of more playing time. He can shoot it from outside and has great athleticism that allows him to be a factor defensively and dangerous when he attacks downhill. He’s not a starter in my opinion based on Mag/Traore/Keita being there but he should have a role as a backup for sure. It’s a promising group for Young in year 1 but it’s not without it’s weaknesses.

Prediction:

My primary concern is going to be the glass and defense. They were sub-50th defensively last year, and while they held down the boards very well 3 of the 4 bigs are gone with not as much coming in and Johnson one of their best rebounders as well and he’s gone. The biggest wildcard though is how Young wants his teams to play and how that fits with this roster. Will he be a guy that morphs his teams style or try and force them to fit what he wants? We don’t really know, but coming from the NBA I would think he’ll have them play fast paced with a lot of ballscreens offensively. It truly is hard to predict but what we know is he has some good outside shooters and a group that 6th in assists per made FG last year so they are comfortable in a motion offense. Ultimately I think they lost more than they brought in and they also lost their HC which is no thing to just brush off. We really have no idea what to expect out of Young and it remains to be seen if they can make up for the scoring losses or improve defensively, and what about the glass? I think this could be a surprising step backwards as most people have the Cougars up higher than this. There’s also a chance Young comes in and transforms who these guys are and they play even better than last year, with an improvement on defense certainly something that could elevate them even if they take a step back offensively. They’re as wild a wildcard as you can get with this much returning talent as we just don’t know what their identity will be. I expect them to miss the tourney, but if you can’t tell, I am sure about nothing when it comes to BYU this year.

10.) TCU (NR)

State of the Program:

When Jamie Dixon took over this program in 2017 they hadn’t made the NCAA tourney since 1998. They have now gotten there 3 straight years, and while they’re just 2-3 in the dance the fact they even got there this consistently is a win for the program. Dixon of course won’t necessarily look at it that way but it’s certainly an accomplishment for him, especially in what has been the best Conference in college hoops over the last 5 years. This year may be a bit more of a struggle though, as they lost essentially everyone from a veteran team that was a 6 seed last year. They only get center Ernest Udeh Jr back and the rest of the roster will be made of transfers and FR. I’m getting used to saying that at this point as it is becoming ridiculously common. Anyway, they will be led by incoming guards Frankie Collins and Noah Reynolds, but have some depth as well with guys like Vasean Allente, Brendan Wenzel RJ Jones all looking to compete for minutes at the 1-3 spots. At the 4 will almost assuredly be Trazarien White who scored in double figures every game last year and should be a main producer for Dixon at that position. The frontcourt is very thin so the FR are going to have to play and may have production that exceeds their ranking just out of sheer opportunity. Micah Robinson is the highest ranked but he’s truly more of a guard than forward so I can only see him playing at the 3 and there’s a lot of depth there already as RS FR Jace Posey is also there and likely ahead of him, so I don’t know how much we’ll see of him. The guy who I think we’ll see more of is David Punch who is more of a stretch 4 that could backup White and rotate in the frontcourt. He rebounds well and can step out and hit a standstill jumper so he will spread the floor but give them a physical presence as well. If they don’t want to go small behind Udeh their only option is FR Malick Diallo who has all the physical tools to be a rim protecting big man but is raw in his development. At the top the roster is strong but there a quite a few question marks here.

Prediction:

There will certainly be a step backwards for TCU this year, as a 4th tourney in a row may be a bit too much to expect. They have a very solid backcourt duo with Collins and Reynolds, but neither are really defenders and they’re not the best outside shooters. White, Wenzel and Allette are better as shooters and give them a group of 5 guys that have proven they can score in college basketball. My concerns lie in the frontcourt and how they’ll fare defensively. Udeh started 29 games at the 5 last year but he played just 17 mpg and wasn’t all that productive in those minutes anyway. That was in part because he fouled at an absurd rate but they could absorb that because they had 4 other guys 6’8″ or taller. This year that is not the case at all, and if they have to go small early and often it could get ugly on the glass and teams will be able to get whatever they want in the paint. In theory Wenzel could slid to the 4 with White at the 5 but again that is not a recipe for success. They of course could get more out of the FR Diallo than I’m expecting but with guys like him it’s usually a struggle to not foul and not turn it over when they get the ball. I’m very worried against the top competition about their depth inside and potential inability to get a rebound. Dixon is a good coach and does have some real talented guards here but I just don’t think their scoring ability is going to be enough to make up for the deficiencies they are going to have. The streak of tourney berths is going to end in my opinion, but they still aren’t going to be a punching bag by any means, this conference is just too good and too deep.

11.) Arizona St (NR)

State of the Program:

As well as coach Hurley’s brother has gotten UConn rolling it has to hurt Bobby a bit as his Arizona St continues to struggle to get its footing. They’ve made 3 NCAA tourney’s under his leadership but are 0-3 in those games, being an 11 seed each time. This is Arizona St though so the expecations aren’t as high, as they only made the dance 3 times in the 20 years prior to Hurley arriving, so he has been successful for their standards. This year is going to be another challenge as there was once again a mass exodus from the program. He has had just 3 returning guys each of the past 2 years now and is having to rely on building a new team from the ground up essentially. He did get some very talented mid-major guys though, with BJ Freeman probably being the best in the class at that level. He’s a do everything guard that will be their go-to guy. Alston Mason should also start in the backcourt and along with Adam Miller those 3 will formulate a pretty dangerous backcourt. Inside you have Basheer Jihad who will start at the 4 after a dominant season with Ball St. Those 3 transfers averaged combined 56 points per game which is as strong a trio as you will find. The FR are exciting and the starting center is likely to be 5-star Jayden Quaintance. He is a freak athlete that can do a little bit of everything, kind of in the Bam Adebayo mold as he probably won’t shoot much in college but has that in his bag to develop at the next level. He can handle it well which allows him to faceup and blow bye in the mid-post and is a terror in transition. He’s going to be a highlight reel waiting to happen. Phillips will likely be his backup as I can’t see the kid not starting with his abillity. Guard Joson Sanon also figures to get time as he has a pure jumper and can be effective off the bounce or off the catch. He is a good athlete as well so I certainly expect to see him in the backcourt rotation.

Prediction:

This is a tough one to peg because they do have a ton of promising talent it is just all unproven at this level. The FR have potential, as do the mid-major transfers, but are they ready for Big 12 basketball? Hurely likes to play fast and certainly has the athletes to do that this year, and with some more guys who will be hungry to prove themselves he may find some more consistent effort than he did a year ago. The other positive spin on this is he has a nice blend of mature guys who know how to develop themselves into big time players and young guys who need that mentorship. Maybe that pairing comes together and pushes this roster to a little more success. Ultimately, it’s incredibly difficult to predict but I do believe in Hurley as a HC and the talent at least on paper is undeniable. Quaintance at the 5 is incredibly versatile and athletic and will allow them to pressure defensively and they should be tough to stop in transition with good passers like Freeman and Mason. They have the size and depth inside to handle themselves, it’s just to be determined if those guys are ready for the physicality in the Big 12. Overall, they certainly don’t have the ceiling to win this league but if they are hanging around in bubble discussions as March approaches I won’t be shocked. It’s not something I would bet on but at least moreso than the bottom teams in the league I think they can be competitive. Beat up on the bottom 5 or 6 and find a way to pick off one of the big boys and you’re in the conversation in late February. That should be the goal this year.

12.) UCF (NR)

State of the Program:

Johnny Dawkins is entering his 9th season with UCF where he really hasn’t gotten much going since that one year with Tacko Fall we all remember (2019). It’s been 5 straight seasons of mediocrity since then and in most places around the Country that is going to land you on the hot seat. To be fair this was a program that hadn’t ever won a tournament game prior to that 2019 season where they finally broke through with Dawkins, so with that kind of history he gets a longer leash for accomplishing that. There is some good news here though as their leading scorers are back in Johnson and Sellers who both scored over 15 ppg. Beyond those two though it’s going to be mostly newcomers contributing, making for yet another tough season. They lost their entire frontcourt which was a strength for them last season, and frankly the incoming group there is not very strong. They did get guys like Keyshawn Hall and Benny Williams that will be good small ball 4’s for them but at center it’s going to be interesting. They have promising FR coming in Thiam, who has a thin frame but is very athletic so he has a ton of promise as a rim protector and rebounder. Oftentimes for FR his size staying out of foul troubel can be a problem, and behind him is only Rokas Jocius from La Salle who was a starter but his numbers were suppressed due to foul trouble as well, but when he did stay clean he produced. Guys like Ivy-Curry, Coleman and Dior Johnson will combine with the returning backcourt duo to give them plenty more scoring options.

Prediction:

I have quite a few worries when it comes to this roster, but ultimately it just feels like yet another year of mediocrity. They really struggled offensively last year (148th) as they just coulnd’t take care of the ball (240th) or knock down shots (283rd). It’s really a miracle they won 7 games in the Big 12 with those numbers. That moderate success was mostly due to their 21st ranked D which relied on blocking shots, limiting offensive rebounds and forcing turnovers. I worry about their ability to repeat that with Diallo and Payne gone who were their frontcourt menaces. They did add more offensive shooting ability, at least on paper, so I do expect a step forward on that end, but it likely is going to be all undone by a regression defensively and on the glass. They may be able to play small and get after it even more on the perimeter, but if Thiam can’t come in and be a consistent paint presence then their 22nd ranked 2 point defense might go plummeting. I still think the talent is here to keep them out of the true basement but I do not see them being a team that is fighting for a tournament bid as February comes to a close. They’ve done great as a program to rise from CUSA–>American–>B12 but a lot of that is on the back of the football program, I’m just not sure they’re where they need to be to truly matter in the Big 12 basketball wise. It may be time to make a change at HC after a 6th straight missed tourney, but Dawkins has that magical 2019 season in his back pocket. They’re in an interesting place, but unfortunately they’ll be mostly forgotten once the season gets rolling.

13.) W. Virginia (NR)

State of the Program:

2 years ago Bob Huggins led the Mountaineers to the NCAA tourney as a 9 seed, then some shit happened and now they’re on to their 2nd HC in two years. Last year was a disaster, with Josh Eilert mustering just 9 total wins and now Darian DeVries is here from Drake to try and rebuild a once great program. I’ll be the first to admit I miss Huggy on the sidelines, despite his propensity to utter words that people who don’t watch sports find offensive, but I digress. We are where we are and DeVries has his opportunity to prove he can do what he did at Drake on the big boy stage. He brought is son and 2x Missouri Valley POY Tucker DeVries with him to help him hit the ground running. The backcourt of Jayden Stone and Javon Small are both uber talented scorers and Small is familiar with the Conference coming from Oklahoma St. They are going to be extremely thin in the frontcourt though, with transfer from Fresno St Andre really being the only true 5 man on the roster, with a guy like Amani Hansberry being the next closest thing and he’s very inexperienced. I’m not going to break down every other transfer, but those are the likely starters and the rest of the minutes are up for grabs, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the starters are all playing as many minutes as DeVries can get out of them.

Prediction:

DeVries did a great job to develop Drake into a contender in the MVC, but it wasn’t overnight and the competition certainly wasn’t the Big 12. He’s obviously a fantastic coach but this is a very difficult task and while having his son Tucker along with Small and Stone gives them a trio that will certainly be able to score, their lack of depth inside is going to hamper them. I foresee big struggles on the glass and for teams to be able to get whatever they want in the paint against them. They’ll probably be playing fast and through Small and DeVries offensively, but another weakness I’m seeing is outside shooting. They have just 3 guys on the roster who shot 35% or better from 3 in their past, not good, especially for a team that doesn’t have a go-to big guy. Far too many weaknesses on top of this being a complete rebuild from the ground up means you absolutely cannot trust W. Virginia to win consistently in this Conference. I hope over the long haul DeVries has success as WVU being good is just nostalgic for me, I just don’t see it happening in year 1.

14.) Oklahoma St (NR)

State of the Program:

This is a floundering program after the Mike Boynton era really only consisted of 1 good season in 2021 when they had Cade Cunningham running the show. In comes quickly rising HC Steve Lutz who is now with his 3rd team in the last 4 seasons. He first took Texas A&M Corpus Christi to back-to-back NCAA tourney’s which landed him the W. Kentucky job where he led them to the big dance as well. 3 straight Conference tourney championships has brought him to the Big 12 after spending over a decade under Greg McDermott and Matt Painter as an assistant. It’s not a complete and total rebuild as he was able to hang on to a couple of guards, most notably Bryce Thompson who was a double digit scorer last year and a former top-25 recruit. Lutz essentially brought in multiple guys at every position via the transfer portal, completely ignoring any sort of FR recruiting. There are several high major guys who will be hoping to find some more playing time, including familiar names like Davonte Davis (Arkansas), Robert Jennings (Tx Tech), Brandon Newman (WKU<–Purdue) and Abou Ousmane (Xavier). There’s a standout duo in the backcourt as well from the mid-major ranks in Brantley and Dean so the competition for minutes is clearly going to be fierce. He also will likely play a lot of guys as he had W. Kentucky play the fastest tempo in the Nation last year.

Prediction:

First year coach, completely rebuilt roster and in a tough conference like the Big 12 is not a recipe for success. Not to mention the fact that the incoming group is not that inspiring, and while there are some guys who are looking to prove themselves it’s not a great sign when you look at a group of 10-12 guys and have virtually no idea who would start and who wouldn’t. It’s a deep roster of decent, kind of just a pick up team with all the misfits that end up linking up so they can play. Lutz has a promising future as a HC in my opinion but he is going to need some time here to clean up the mess that was left behind. Hopefully he can get some of these guys who have multiple years of eligibility to stick around and then build on that next year. Needless to say I don’t expect much success out of the Pokes, but there’s enough here to keep them above the last 2 I have in the league, which honestly speaks to their lack of talent more than to the hope I have for this roster.

15.) Utah (NR)

State of the Program:

Utah had an interesting year last year as they got off to a promising start, going 14-5 with wins over BYU, St. Mary’s and Wazzu who all ended up in the tourney (7 seeds or better). They finished the season just 5-9 and missed the tourney, with a lot of that likely due to starting PG Rollie Worster getting hurt after game 16. He is gone now via transfer, as are 6 total guys from their regular rotation of 9 last year with just Gabe Madsen, Lawson Lovering and Hunter Erickson back. Madsen and Lovering were regular starters so we should see them back there again, and given the relative inexperience incoming I would expect Erickson to probably start as well. The most promising of the incoming transfers is Ezra Ausar who should start at the 4 as he can stretch it out to hit 3’s and has good length. The other guy I would watch is Miro Little who was a top-50 recruit to Baylor that just played sparingly off the bench last year. The last guy of note is the top-100 FR Jaxon Johnson who is a stretch 4 at this level that is a decent athlete but is most known for his jumper. He may struggle to find time this year but the guys incoming aren’t necessarily world beaters so he’ll have a shot.

Prediction:

There’s not much to say here really this is a team that lost a ton of talent from a squad that didn’t make the tourney last year and struggled in a down Pac-12. Now they enter a very tough Big 12 conference in which they will likely get bent over many many times. I do not expect many wins, although they do have a decent core that could have enough to knock off one or two of these other bottom feeders in this conference. Craig Smith is in a tough spot because Utah is a football school, with a string of losing since the late 90’s/early 2000’s with Rick Majerus at the helm when they went to 7 of 8 tourney’s and even made it to the national title game in ’98. Since he left after the ’04 season they’ve only made the tourney 4 times, with a quick burst back in the Kuzma/Poetl days, but overall it hasn’t been consistent success for 20 years now. And oh by the way, that was back in the Mountain West days, this is the Big 12, good luck.

16.) Colorado (NR)

State of the Program:

I am a little surprised after last year’s success that Tad Boyle wasn’t able to build on that with a top FR class or a top transfer portal class. Especially with all the excitement and notoriety the football program has brought I would think his resources have grown. Who knows though, maybe Deion is taking all the NIL funds for himself, we’ll never know, all we do know is this may be the most drastic reduction in talent across high major basketball. 6 of the 7 leading scorers are gone with just the 6th overall scorer in Julian Hammond III back. There is only 1 guy who has played D1 basketball incoming to replace that lost production with Andrej Jakimovski coming over from Wazzu. Beyond that it’s a DII transfer and a NAIA transfer joining the bench players from last season and 4 FR. Not a lot to get excited about, and while there could be a surprising surge from some of the guys who were not playing much last year that would be expecting a lot if that’s your expectations. The best of the FR is Andrew Crawford who comes in with good length and athleticism as a wing which allows him to be versatile on defense. He has some work to do offensively but he will finish well at the rim and has good feel with the ball. Sebastian Rancik is the other FR with promise as he’s a stretch 4 with guards skills that will make him tough to defend as his 6’9″ frame allows him to punish smaller defenders inside but also he can blow by bigger guys and has the handle to creatively get to the cup. They are guys that will need to develop but if Boyle can hold on to them it’s the beginning of a new talented crop that could one day be impactful.

Prediction:

Unsurprisingly I do not have high expectations for this year’s Colorado team, year 1 in the Big 12 is going to be a wake up call. There’s really no way to say for sure how they will play or who they will play, as they regularly only played 7 or max 8 guys last year with 6 of them being gone. It’s a pretty simple calculation method, massive amount of production exiting the program, not much proven production entering. It is all on younger guys stepping up to fill the void, and in a Conference like this with all of this talent at the top I find it hard to believe this team gets more than a couple wins in the Big 12. There is a lot of youth on the roster though, so if you’re a Buff fan you have to at least have hope that this can be a year to build on and maybe Boyle will have some more luck next off-season bringing in some more proven talent to try and compete with. Until then, Colorado unfortunately is going to have a tough time finding wins.