Pre-Season Prediction

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1.) Duke (#3)

State of the Program:

Jon Scheyer inherited probably the best situation in college basketball and to his credit he has kept the train on the tracks. While he hasn’t won the ACC or been to a Final 4 he’s still bringing in ridiculous amounts of talent, with this year’s freshman group the best yet. They have a little bit of experience coming back with Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster back, plus some veteran transfers like Sion James, Maliq Brown and Mason Gillis who could all find roles. Let’s be honest though, the story is this FR class and they are going to determine just how good this Duke team can be this year. Leading the show is a guy we all know at this point Cooper Flagg. I’m sure most of you reading this have at least seen some highlights by now, but for those that are living under a rock this kid is the slam dunk #1 pick in next year’s draft as at 6’8″ he can do everything, from knocking down shots, creating his own offense to rebounding and blocking shots inside. He is going to lead the team in scoring and be must-watch TV every time on the floor. Next guy in the rankings is 7’2″ center Khaman Maluach who is a long, lanky, athletic 5 man that is going to cause problems as a shot blocker and be a force on the glass. He hasn’t been starting in their scrimmages but certainly will get plenty of time at the 5 this year, especially if he develops and improves as the year goes on. Next is Isaiah Evans who should be a bench contributor but has a ton of upside as a wing. I’ve seen him referenced as baby Ingram (Brandon Ingram I’m assuming) but I see more Malik Monk as he’s a little smaller than Ingram and more of a high flyer than Ingram. He has an eccentric personality with a swagger bordering on arrogance, so I’m curious to see how he transitions to the college game. Next is Kon Kneuppel who has been a starter in their scrimmages and is by all accounts the best shooter of the basketball in the class, and maybe out of the gates one of the best in the country. If that’s the case he will be a nightmare in college this year and off to the NBA next summer. Transfer Sion James has been starting with Kneuppel and Foster in the backcourt, with Flagg joining Brown in the frontcourt so far in the scrimmages, which gives the Blue Devils 5 guys who can shoot the 3 and versatility on defense. Proctor figures to be a major contributor too though as he’s a natural playmaker for others and they will likely need that in the half court some. That’s a solid group off the bench with Maluach and Gillis able to rotate in the frontcourt and Evans and Sheffield adding to Proctor in the backcourt. Pretty easy to see the hype.

Prediction:

I have them 3rd for a reason and that’s purely because this is probably the best group of FR we’ve seen come in together since Duke’s 2019 team with Zion, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. While it is true the FR classes have not had the success in the 2020’s that we saw the decade before with Kentucky and Duke, it has been a while since a guy as sure fire as Flagg has come along and had the firepower around him to really make some noise in college. The experienced guys like Proctor, Foster and James are going to be critical in the backcourt, and adding Maliq Brown to pair with Flagg inside might be the most critical move. They are going to be super versatile defensively, which is something that should be discussed as Scheyer has been very effective with these young Duke teams at getting them to be solid on defense. It wasn’t always easy for Coach K and these FR/SO led Duke teams on defense and Scheyer has had them 16th overall on that end each of his first two seasons. Now he has athletic forwards that can guard 1-5 in Brown/Flagg/Gillis but also a 7’2″ shot blocker, plus they’ve added a guy in Sion James that has been a menace on the perimeter as a defender. I think they could be top-10 defensively so long as they rebound effectively in this small lineup they appear to be rolling with, but the versatility to switch and get out and pressure is going to be key. I understand the hesitation after years of seeing veteran led teams dominate, especially in March, but let’s not forget just how much generational talents can make a difference, and Flagg is certainly that. He also comes into a situation with a ton of help around him, shooters galore, depth at every position and frankly a Conference that isn’t going to push them too much. I think they win the ACC rather easily and end up with a 1 seed in the tourney. With that I fully expect them to be a Final 4/Natty contender, and while that may sound ludicrous I have a feeling it won’t after Nov 12th when Duke dog walks Kentucky on national TV and the world finds out how good Flagg and the rest of this group will be.

2.) UNC (#9)

State of the Program:

The Hubert Davis experience at UNC has been up and down and all around as they’ve had a myriad of finishes over 3 years, from being an 8 seed and going to the national title game, to missing the tourney the next year, to bouncing back to be a 1 seed just to lose in the Sweet 16 so they’ve just about covered it all. The facts are that he’s been to a Final 4 and won an ACC regular season title in 3 seasons though so while it hasn’t always been pretty the hardware is there, with just a national title left before it becomes just about stacking. To help him accomplish that leading scorer and one of the best guards in the country is back in RJ Davis to lead the show, with a mix of returning role players, Freshmen and transfers in to fill the voids around him. Ian Jackson is probably the best bet to be a high volume scorer outside of Davis as he is a true 3 level scorer with incredible athleticism and the ability to breakdown the defense off the bounce to create for himself or others. Gives you some Donovan Mitchell vibes with his athleticism and bounce at the rim while also being able to beat you with his jumper, I think he’s going to be pretty damn good. Drake Powell is the other FR likely to have an impact, but his size, length and skillset is more of a Demar Derozan as he’s at his best attacking the rim as a slasher but also can hit midrange pullups and may develop a jumper from 3 down the line. He should give UNC the grit and grime type of plays they got out of Ingram last year and certainly have some highlight reel dunks along the way. The other Ingram replacement candidate is transfer Cade Tyson, who is not quite the athlete Powell is but is an extremely dangerous weapon on offense, shooting 46% from 3 last year and rebounding well he should be a big time contributor as well. Cadeau is back after starting last year and Trimble is back as well in the backcourt, so with Davis, Jackson and Powell that is a very talented and versatile backcourt. The bigs are more of the concern, as the production of Ingram and Bacot is a gigantic hole to fill and with only guys like Jalen Washington and Jae’lyn Withers back and transfer Ven-Allen Lubin and Claude not being overly impressive that figures to be the weakness. Tyson and Powell’s versatility could allow them to play small but I would worry about them on the glass at that point, especially with small guards like Davis and Cadeau not contributing much on the glass.

Prediction:

I think UNC has big time upside but there’s some concern here as well. They are going to be able to score the ball, likely wanting to run even more than they have in the past with all of these athletes. They aren’t going to have a guy like Bacot to play through in the halfcourt and that’s just a fact, so there’s going to be more pressure on guys like Cadeau, Trimble and incomer Jackson to create in the halfcourt for others off the bounce. They are all capable, so I don’t really doubt their ability to get good shots, it’s just going to look a little different than it has under Davis so far. They had their best season of his tenure on defense last year, mostly due to their ability to dominate the boards and block shots. They were pretty awful when it came to forcing turnovers but they limited second chances and had a top-25 2 point defense rank. The issue is that was heavily reliant on Bacot and Ingram, so guys like Washington, Withers and Lubin are going to have a ton of pressure on them to make up for that production on the glass and as rim protectors. We know who Davis is going to be, the question really comes down to the frontcourt guys stepping up as I just outlined and the FR + Cade Tyson being difference makers. Cadeau and Trimble have the talent to take a step forward as well, but Jackson and Tyson could both be double digit scorers and frankly they may only need one of them to step up to be the Robin to Davis’ Batman. It’s hard to doubt a team with a guy like Davis leading the way but they do feel like less of a sure thing than Duke does. Jackson/Tyson to me are the wildcards as it is just going to be imperative for them to have a guy other than Davis that can get his own. If defenses are able to key in on Davis and limit them offensively then they may struggle. Ultimately I think the talent here is just too deep for them not to figure it out, and Hubert seems to have his feet under him and moving this thing the way it should be, but we have seen them flop under him before so it’s not out of the question. Still, they seem the clear #2 and the best shot of anyone to knock off Duke.

3.) Wake Forest (NR)

State of the Program:

Steve Forbes is doing everything he can to bring Wake Forest back to relevancy, and while he hasn’t been able to crack through to the NCAA tourney yet they were right square in the mix until a meltdown late last year (losses to ND and GA Tech burst their bubble). He gets back two of his leading scorers and starting center from last year and is slowly amassing a long list of former 4-star recruits. You’ll remember last year he brought in Reid and Sallis from Gonzaga who were highly touted recruits and this season he has added 4 more disaffected guys off their FR campaign who are looking for more opportunities to play. That group is led by 5-star wing Omaha Biliew who spent last season playing behind a deep and uber talented Iowa St front court. He’ll come right in and look to start next to Reid who was the 27th ranked recruit in his class, which alongside Beliew as the 10th ranked in his quietly gives them a powerful 1-2 on paper inside. Now, he’ll compete with transfer Tre’Von Spillers who is the lone veteran transferring in who surely will have a role and with his experience and toughness on the glass he may win the starting job. Joining Sallis and Hildreth in the backcourt figures to be a rotation of guys, with returning guard Friedrichsen, a top-100 recruit last year, the most likely after posting good shooting numbers last year and having the raport with those guys already. Davin Cosby is also here from Bama, again a 4-star recruit coming off a limited FR campaign behind a deep group last year, he’ll compete for time next to those guys as well. The last guy is the likely backup point guard in Ty-Laur Johnson, who was wildly inefficient in his FR year at L’Ville but again was a top-100 recruit with a ton of upside and was frankly in a horrific situation last year at Louisville as they were worse than bad. The last potential factor is the FR Juke Harris, who at 6’6″ has potential to be a double digit scorer one day in college as he has a nice looking jumper and the athleticism to be able to create offense in the half court. That’s a deep group, albeit one riddled with question marks and resting on potential over proven production.

Prediction:

If you scoffed at seeing Wake Forest 3rd frankly I don’t blame you, but when you start looking in depth at these rosters after the first 2 honestly your guess is as good as mine. There’s a steep dropoff in talent from UNC/Duke to the rest of the Conference. I could go through and probably make a legitimate argument for 10 teams that could finish 3rd in the Conference. So, why did I land on Wake Forest? Well I like the trio of returning guys with Sallis/Hildreth/Reid giving them 3 starters back from a team that just missed the tourney last year. I would very quickly rank the ACC 5th/5 when it comes to returning talent, as there are just a ton of rebuilds happening and at least with Wake I get members of a core that was somewhat successful last year. Yes, that’s where we’re at already at 3rd place. I also get potential out the wazoo, with a 5-star SO coming to town in Biliew who never really got to shine because of the talent on Iowa St last year, and guys like Cosby and Johnson are also upside plays as they were 4-star recruits themselves. They don’t all have to hit, as there really is depth here, with a veteran like Spillers being a perfect fit at the 4 or a small ball 5, and the guards off the bench are better. Frankly Sallis and Hildreth were basically playing every minute last year so they can do that again and those guys might not even matter. Defense was and probably will continue to be their issue, as even when they won they needed to score 80+ nearly every win last year, but with added depth maybe that improves? Do I conceivably see only 2 teams from the ACC getting into the NCAA tourney? No, so if I’m going to try and find a team that can breakout and have the potential to beat up on the bottom half of this Conference I’m betting on the Demon Deacons. Am I confident? Hell no. That’s the prediction game though folks.

4.) Clemson (NR)

State of the Program:

Clemson had it’s best finish in the tournament in decades last season, reaching the Elite 8 and finishing 5th in the ACC for what was probably their best year under Brownell. He has taken Clemson to the tourney 4 times in 14 seasons, not especially great, and each of the previous seasons following a trip to the dance they have failed to get back a 2nd straight year. So, this year they’ll try for another first under Brownell and will have to do so after losing 3 starters of which 2 were their leading scorers. Getting back Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin is a strong foundation on which to start to reload around though, so there is still some hope here. Chauncey Wiggins and Dillon Hunter were contributors off the bench as well so that helps build some cohesion here as well. The transfers are going to be the x-factors though, with a guy like Viktor Lahkin being front and center. It’s hard to tell exactly how the frontcourt will shape up (just try googling Clemson basketball, every news story is Dabo and football related) but for sure Lahkin will have a role even if he doesn’t start at the 5 next to Shieffelin. The other candidate there would be for them to go small with Foster, but given Lahkin played in the Big 12 last year and produced I would think he wins that job. I would expect the backcourt to be older Hunter and then the transfers Zackery and Heidbreder, who shot 39 and 40% respectively from 3 averaging double figure scoring. They’re not quite PJ Hall and Girard levels of scoring but having knock down shooters is going to be hugely important. The last guy worth mentioning is FR Dallas Thomas, who at 6’8″ has great length and can be a knock down shooter. His athleticism and shooting combined could give him time at the 3 or 4, depending on how he defends he could be a factor.

Prediction:

While Brownell hasn’t been overly successful on a national scale he really is a solid coach in what is a very difficult job given the attention the football program draws. They say a rising tide lifts all boats and we’re kind of seeing that in the SEC, but it hasn’t quite bled over for Clemson. He does a great job of maximizing what he can from usually undermanned rosters on paper, and that’s why I have them where I have them. The talent is not quite as strong as last year but I do think they have the potential to tighten the screws defensively to make up for the losses scoring wise. Brownell has had very talented teams on that end of the floor before, and may have just had a physical limitation with how much pressure they could apply. They were just 340th in TO’s forced, so adding a guy like Zackery to replace Girard is going to help them in that area as he’s much more athletic and has a good history of getting steals. Offensively it could be a struggle, as they don’t have a standout bucket getter in terms of breaking the defense down and creating their own offense. Schieiffelin is probably going to get more touches in the post, and to his credit he was effective in that spot last year at nearly 59% from 2 and he’s a menace on the glass. They have really good shooters, the question will be can they manufacture good looks from outside in the halfcourt. If they can consistently get good looks and improve a little on defense they very easily could beat up on the bottom 2/3’s of this conference and be in good position to finally get Brownell to back-to-back tourney’s. They don’t have the ultimate ceiling in my opinion that last year’s team had (I had them pre-season top-20) but with Brownell at the helm and the talent on the roster I think they’ll be right here in the 3rd-5th range at the end of the season with a shot at dancing again.

5.) Miami (NR)

State of the Program:

From the highest of highs to the lowest of lows last year for this Miami program. Coming off of a Final 4 run they brought back a huge core of that team looking to have another strong year. They were sitting at 15-7 after a Feb 3rd victory over over VA Tech when shit hit the fan, as they lost 3 tough games in a row @ UVA, vs UNC and @ Clemson. Nigel Pack got hurt in the 3rd loss, and that stretch on top of that injury sent them into a tailspin that took that 3 game skid and turned it into 10 straight losses to end the season on a sour note. Much of last year’s team has now transferred out, with just Pack and Matthew Cleveland back to try and get this train back on the tracks for Larranaga. Jalen Blackmon was one of the premier scorers at the mid-major level and should immediately join Pack in the backcourt, replacing Poplar. Next to them in all likelihood will be 5-star FR Jalil Bethea, who is as good as it gets as a scorer in this class. Whether it’s off the catch, the dribble or with acrobatics at the rim, he puts the ball in the hoop, simple as that. A lineup of Pack, Blackmon, Bethea and Cleveland has the potential to be scary good offensively as all 4 guys can fill it up. The 5 spot is a bit of a mystery though, as they have 3 options in Brandon Johnson, Lynn Kidd and Kiree Huie. Johnson was a monster on the boards and can step out and hit 3’s allowing them to play 5 out and he could play the 4 as well, but he’s a bit undersized and not much of a rim protector. Kidd is longer and much more of a threat inside and as a roll man in ball screen actions and I’d expect Huie to just serve as a backup. That gives them some versatility at the very least. Off the bench in the back court a guy like Staton-McCray gives them a good outside shooter and the FR Swartz has a ton of potential as well. He’s not overly athletic but has great feel as a distributor and has a good looking jumper as well. That’s a solid group of 9 to work with, and while the last few years have been up and down on paper they look very talented once again.

Prediction:

What Miami should do and what they will do have not always aligned under Larranaga, but we have seen him adapt over the years. Back in his early days his teams would take the air out of the ball and play you in the halfcourt. The last few years, after 3 consecutive bad seasons, he’s opened things up and gone out and gotten the athletes to be able to get up and a down a little bit and it has resulted in a couple really good offensive seasons that took them to the Elite 8 and Final 4 in consecutive seasons. We’ll chalk last year up to losing your best player to injury and throw it out and just expect more of the same in terms of them playing fast and being a top-10 offensive team again. What has held them back in the regular season has been defense, or lack thereof. They have been 99th or worse each of the last 6 seasons. More often than not that did not go well for them, but they also were exceptions to my rule that you can’t win in March playing bad defense, so for whatever it’s worth they’ve at least had success in spite of the poor play on D. I expect more of the same, as this starting lineup has a chance to be one of the toughest to defend in the entire country. Pack, Blackmon, Bethea and Cleveland can all put up double figures on a nightly basis, and they may need them to if they continue to defend like a wet paper bag. That recipe has gotten them in the tourney and allowed them to go on runs though I’m not going to deny that, so if Larranaga can get these pieces to come together and play a fast paced high scoring style then they’re going to be a factor in this Conference and have a shot at getting back to the dance. As with last year though it has a chance to go off the rails, and as glamorous and fun as Miami can be we’ve seen it can get ugly fast. I expect some bumps in the road but ultimately seeing Miami as a 7-10 seed with all this scoring punch would not surprise me.

6.) Notre Dame (NR)

State of the Program:

On the surface it may look like Micah Shrewsberry had a tough year 1 at Notre Dame, but I actually don’t think it was all things considered. He had to essentially rebuild the entire roster and chose to do so, smartly in my opinion, via FR and young transfers. That resulted in him playing almost entirely FR and SO’s that took a while to get things going. After a loss to Duke they set just 2-10 in ACC play and just 7-16 overall, but they finished the season 6-4 including wins over Clemson and Wake Forest. Thanks to his building with youth and getting them to buy in (hard to do when you go 13-20) he has almost that entire group back with just a few holes to fill. He was a longtime assistant under Matt Painter and you can see that influence as he’s attempting to build the roster sustainably, with an emphasis on developing talent and not looking for that quick fix in the transfer portal. Not that he avoided that entirely though, and the few additions look key as they, among other struggles, really struggled shooting the ball last year and adding Allocco to the backcourt as a 43% shooter from 3 is huge. Burton and Shrewsberry are back to join him in the backcourt and with some improved efficiency that backcourt should take a major step forward. Booth and Zona left for greener pastures so Tae Davis and Njie will have more opportunity, but the transfers should contribute as well. Nikita Konstantynovskyi (pronounce that right challenge) and Chebuhar should have a role, but by no means is the front court going to be a strength offensively. Roper, Imes and Konieczny are back to contribute off the bench but the FR are going to have something to say about their roles. Sir Mohammed (son of Nazr) comes in as an athletic wing with a very similar profile as his dad as he projects as a 3 and D wing with plus athleticism, although not going to jump off the page in that respect. I could easily see him playing the 3 off the bench, especially if he buys in defensively as his added length would help them on that end. The other is Cole Certa who is your stereotypical stand still marksman that you’d imagine seeing on Purdue/Wisconsin/Virginia (think Kyle Guy) who’s shooting ability could be the sole reason he gets on the floor.

Prediction:

Before you call me crazy for having the Irish at 6, at least agree with me that the middle of the ACC is a complete crapshoot, with wild amounts of turnover and mediocrity. I genuinely believe Shrews is building something here, and that run at the end of the season has me bought in, along with his young team. They finished 39th defensively last year, a number I expect to be even better this year as these guys get better and better on that end. The thing about team defense, especially for young guys is communicating, knowing where to be and when to be there, and most of all having faith in your teammates to do their job consistently, which all takes time to develop. Based on the past of Shrews and his influences you can count on getting a disciplined team defensively and that was proven last year. The other end of the floor is where the major step forward has to occur if this prediction is going to come true. I think they have more offensive weapons than they did a year ago, with guys like Allocco and Certa being knockdown shooters and having athletic forwards like Mohammed/Davis/Njie they should be able to offensive rebound well as well. I am not trying to say this team is going to be a top-25 team, or even a tourney team, but no doubt in my mind they can be somewhere around the 50th range and that, unfortunately for the ACC, is probably going to be good enough to be around this spot. None of that is even mentioning they had a kid in Markus Burton come in and average 17 ppg as a true FR. If he takes a step forward, which may not be in overall production but in efficiency, then yes I think in year 2 under Shrewsberry Notre Dame could make some noise. Call me crazy, I say you lack vision. Coaching matters, cohesion matters and most of all getting young guys to come back to a team that went 13-20 in this day and age matters. Give me Notre Dame and the over on whatever their win total is. I’ll even sprinkle a little on them to make the tourney cuz I’m a madman…

7.) N.C. State (NR)

State of the Program:

Last year was a wild ride for the Wolfpack, as they finished the regular season 2-7 and were forced to have to win the ACC tourney to get in the dance, and that’s exactly what they did. They then parlayed that momentum into an improbable Final 4 run in what was the best season by far under Keatts thanks to that late season run. They get 3 regular contributors from last year’s team but the top 3 scorers are gone in Horne, Burns and Morsell so there’s a bunch to replace production wise. To Keatts’ credit he went to the transfer portal and got some more horses to try and keep the momentum going in this program. The best of those is Marcus Hill who averaged over 20 ppg and should pair up with Jayden Taylor at the guard spots with O’Connell running the point. Inside Brandon Huntley-Hatfield is the sure fire 5 man as he was a regular double digit scorer last year at Louisville, and while they were awful he is still clearly the best option to replace Burns inside. At the 4 they will have options, but Ben Middlebrooks certainly will be rotating at both the 4 and 5, but they can also go small with guys like Donztrez Styles and Dennis Parker who are 6’6″ and could fit in there with their size. Throw Mike James and Canadian transfer Ismael Diouf in there along with the FR Paul McNeil and the depth jumps off the page in the backcourt. McNeil is a lanky wing that is a good shooter as well so he has a bright future ahead even if we don’t see him a ton this year. The frontcourt leaves a little to be desired and that is likely the weakness that keeps them from truly contending in this conference.

Prediction:

The run to the Final 4 last year was fun, so fun, but the reality of the situation is they were just 17-14 overall prior to the ACC tourney and overall just an average team. Credit where credit is due, but similar to the Frank Martin’s S. Carolina run, which saw them miss the tourney the next 5 seasons, I think this could be a fall back to earth year. There is some talent here though no doubt, but it’s hard to recreate the magic of last season with Burns, Horne and Morsell being so integral to their success. I certainly don’t think they’re going to be bad, I have them 7th out of 18 in this conference that looks real bad at the bottom. The switch that seemingly flipped last year was they started defending at a much higher level, after giving up 87, 90, 79, 79 and 81 in their 5 losses to end the regular season they started clamping down once the ACC tourney got going. They held 7 of their final 10 opponents to less than 1 point per possession down the stretch, something they hadn’t done prior since a matchup with Virginia in January (who rarely scored more than 1 ppp regardless). So the question is, did Keatts unlock something for this program defensively? Prior to last year they averaged 110th defensively under him, so I’m going to just predict, with the roster turnover, that we see a regression back to that style of play. They’re going to be able to score with the best of them, but likely drop games that they shouldn’t because they don’t defend well enough. Especially when they’re incredibly thin upfront, with really only Huntley-Hatfield and Middlebrooks as true big men. I don’t see NC State as a tournament team, of course I didn’t last year and they weren’t until all of a sudden they were unbeatable in March, so who knows.

8.) Syracuse (NR)

State of the Program:

The Red Autry era at Syracuse got underway in about as average a way as you could imagine, as they won a lot of games against the weaker teams they played and lost 12 games, 8 of which were to tourney teams. Good enough to beat teams they should, most of the time, but not good enough to consistently beat the top-30 or so teams. They were 83rd in offensive efficiency and 85th defensively, pretty average to below average statistically. Autry now has to reload as much of the roster has exited the program, with just Starling and Bell back as starters from a year ago. They are not going to be super deep this year but at the top they are going to have some real talent. Joining Starling is Jaquan Carlos who can be a distributor at the point and Lucas Taylor will surely be an impact player as a scorer as well. Jyare Davis and Eddie Lampkin are also incoming and looking to start at the 4 and 5, although FR Donnie Freeman certainly will have something to say about that. He is a lanky wing that can hit a stand still 3 but is more comfortable operating in the mid-range and the mid-post. He is a versatile athlete so he easily could play the 4 for Autry as he can block shots and get out and run. McLeod should backup Lampkin, and Cuffe/Westry are depth pieces at the guard spots that round out a pretty decent looking lineup all things considered.

Prediction:

We got a good look last year at how Autry wants to run his teams last year, upping the tempo to 39th in the nation and despite a mid defensive rating they ramped up the perimeter pressure to be top-40 in turnovers forced %. They were really, really bad on the defensive glass (308th) and when they didn’t turn you over they were really bad at forcing misses with an effective FG% allowed at 299th. So, we essentially have all the show without the substance in my opinion when it comes to defense. Oh nice you got out in the passing lane 3 times and got 3 steals, but you attempted and failed 15 other times that resulted in 30 points, not a great trade off. Personally, I do like teams that extend their pressure and force turnovers, but you have to have the presence on the backend to alter shots, as well as the connectivity as a defense to rotate if a guy gets beat. They had neither of those things, and to top it off couldn’t get a rebound. Those are basic things though that can certainly improve, especially given all the new guys coming in that may have a little better awareness and intensity on defense. Lampkin inside is not a shot blocker, at all, as he’s not the best athlete, but he is a good rebounder and should help them in that area. They’ll hope that FR Freeman can help with the shot blocking, but overall the frontcourt may just not have the force that it takes to be a high pressure team. We’ll see if Autry adjusts that style, but at the very least with the scorers they have and the pace they play we know they’ll be fun. I expect them to be similar to last year, good enough to beat the bottom half of this conference consistently but just not strong enough to contend with the top and probably missing out on the tourney yet again.

9.) Louisville (NR)

State of the Program:

Out with the old in with the new, that’s the story here for the 2025 Louisville Cardinals as the coaching staff is gone and the entire roster is gone from last year. The last few years have been a dreadful experience all around for a once great program, and they have the resources to quickly resurrect that status if they made the right hire. Pat Kelsey is their guy, he took Winthrop to multiple tourney’s and most recently took Charleston to back-to-back tourney’s so he’s proven he can build a good team and win at the mid-major level. This is a whole different challenge though, with some bigger advantages having the brand and money that Louisville has but also having the expectations that come with a big program like this. What excites me about this rebuild is what he’s done via the transfer portal in year 1 (must be fun to have some money to throw around). He’s brought in Power Conference starters like Chucky Hepburn, J’Vonne Hadley and Noah Waterman to pair with mid-major standouts like Terrance Edwards Jr and Kasean Pryor just to name a few. He has come out swinging in terms of talent accumulation, clearly not trying to slowly build for the future, proven by his bringing in of just 1 FR. I’m not going to sit here and go through each and every transfer guy by guy, but you can see for yourself they all bring proven production to a program that can essentially only go up from the last 2 seasons that saw them go 5-35 in the ACC under Kenny Payne. There are quite a few rebuilds going on around the country like this, but I think Louisville is sneakily one of the stronger ones entering the season, on paper.

Prediction:

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I think Louisville is going to win the ACC in year 1 under Kelsey but this thing should look wildly different. He brought in a ton of talent but more importantly is the style he brings and what that talent will help them do. He has always had his teams play fast paced and hoist a lot of 3’s. This results in a free and open play style that guys love to play under (hence why these guys came to play for him) and it should allow them to be one of the better offensive teams in the Conference a la Miami. He brought a couple of his guys over from Charleston in Smith and Rogers who were knock down shooters, but he also has guys like Waterman (37%) as a big, Koren Johnson (37%) and Hadley (42%) who are all knockdown from outside as well. Guys like Hepburn, Edwards and Pryor aren’t as consistent but they’re capable as well, so I fully expect that same style of play and I think he wisely brought in guys to fit his style. It’s amazing what coaches can do in this day and age with open free agency essentially, but to see Louisville having a real chance to make some noise after the last two years has to be such a great feeling for Cardinal fans. Now, we also have to keep in mind that many of these rebuilds over the past couple of seasons have flamed out after bringing in large groups of transfers, but it’s also a small sample size as this ability to bring guys in like this is very new. It has proven very difficult to get to the tourney in year 1 of a rebuild like this, but when you only won 5 Conference games in 2 years even just getting in the mix in the middle of the pack is a giant step forward. That’s what I expect, but don’t get it twisted if everything comes together they have tourney potential, it’s just a steep mountain to climb to get it all to go perfectly.

10.) Pitt (NR)

State of the Program:

Jeff Capel is trying to get this train back on the tracks but after 7 seasons at the helm they have just 1 tourney bid as an 11 seed to show for. The good news is there has been positive momentum the last 2 seasons, 1 of them being that tourney appearance and last season a somewhat surprising 12-8 season in the ACC. That’s back-to-back above .500 conference seasons for the first time since Jamie Dixon left the program almost a decade ago now. The bad news is the two leading scorers from last year are gone with no obvious replacements incoming. The guard duo of Leggett and Lowe had very solid seasons last year, so there is at least some consistency there and some reliable production. They brought in Damian Dunn who didn’t have a huge season with Houston last year but was 2x All-Conference in the American at Temple prior so he will help as well and possibly start at the 3. The other guy to watch as a potential option at the 3 is European transfer Amsal Delalic who is a lethal spot up shooter. He has good size but athletically isn’t that special, but with a game similar to Bogdanovic he surely can carve out a role if he’s shooting 40%+ from 3 and could even play a small ball 4. The front court is much more muddy, as Capel has brought in a ton of competition for the returning Diaz-Graham brothers and Zack Austin is back after starting 31 games last year. Transfer Cam Corhen had an up and down SO year last year, actually peaking in a game against Pitt as he had 25 and 8 and apparently got Capel’s attention enough for him to bring him in. How he fits in will be interesting but he certainly will have a role. That’s a group of 8 right there, and Capel could cut it off there and play a short bench, as his only options are either true or redshirt FR, so if it goes deeper it will be young.

Prediction:

My thoughts on this Pitt roster are pretty simply that they’re average, with no true elite scoring option like they had last year with Hinson or Carrington. Leggett was good but was the definition of a microwave, being able to go off for 25+ on occasion but just as often scoring in single digits. He has been an inefficient scorer throughout his career but he’s their best option outside of Lowe, who is their primary playmaker. Dunn has a very similar history, with a career 38% shooting percentage overall, and just 31% from 3. I worry, therefore, about their overall efficiency from 2, as they don’t have a true post presence and outside shooting will likely be a weakness. Delalic could help out in the shooting department, and maybe Corhen can help scoring inside, but those two are highly variable. They haven’t been very good defensively under Capel either, but last year was their best at 48th, so maybe there’s continued improvement on that end to offset the drop in offensive firepower. I don’t have a ton of faith there, but it’s possible. Overall I expect them to just be average, good enough to beat the lesser teams but not good enough to beat the top-half. That should result in somewhere around a .500 conference record which will not be good enough to be a tourney team in this year’s ACC.

11.) Virginia (NR)

State of the Program:

Well just recently this one took an unexpected turn with the retiring of longtime HC Tony Bennett. It’s hard to imagine there isn’t at least some bad vibes in that locker room, as the whole world seemed pretty shocked he retired, so I would imagine those players were as well. The one thing I wonder is if he had turned the team over to new HC Ron Sanchez in essence prior to retiring, giving him more responsibility/control of practices and recruiting. I would be surprised if he just abruptly walked away with no warning signs, as there would seemingly be some sort of blowback in that case from the roster. Truth be told I had them higher than this prior out of respect to Bennett and his coaching ability, but honestly the roster is not great and now with all of this turmoil just weeks before the season it’s hard to imagine success for Sanchez right away. They have a core of 6 returning guys from last year’s team, but just 1 of them was a major offensive contributor, and that was a team that ranked 200th in offensive efficiency. McNeely being back is the best weapon offensively, but the backcourt is most likely going to be ran by transfer Dai Dai Ames who was a top-75 recruit last year and had a limited role with K-State. Guys like Rohde, Murray and Gertrude all played sparingly last year, but the two certainties seem to be McNeely and Ames. Inside it’s once again a lot of inexperience but potential, with Buchanan back after a solid FR season as the backup 5 man ready to step up and Duke transfer TJ Power coming in looking for more playing time. Saunders gives them more depth, but ultimately nobody on this roster has been a major contributor at this level other than McNeely.

Prediction:

I truly think this has a chance to go really poorly, but with Sanchez at least being the Associate HC last season and through this offseason you’d hope Bennett at least set it up to be somewhat of a smooth transition. Still, there has to be a feeling from the guys, especially the transfers and FR that they were duped in a sense with Bennett recruiting them to play for him only to step down like that (Warley has since left the program). Either way, they have no choice now but to put themselves on display even if they plan to transfer out after the season. Given the culture and that Sanchez was a longtime assistant prior to leaving to be the HC of Charlotte, where he didn’t have much success in 5 seasons, I still expect it not to be a total disaster. What you lose faith in is Bennett had an ability to elevate teams well above their on paper talent, will Sanchez be able to replicate that? Will he still play the same style of Virginia basketball we’ve all come to know and loathe? It is hard to predict, but one thing is for sure, the talent level on the roster is not to the standard we were used to seeing from past Virginia teams. The likes of De’Andre Hunter, Kyle Guy, Malcolm Brogdon and Ty Jerome are nowhere to be found right now. This is a bottom of the barrel roster, with only the history of being elite defensively giving them any hope at all. This may be their ceiling, but some part of me can’t shake the idea that they will find a way to win 8 conference games by holding teams to 50 or fewer points.

12.) Georgia Tech (NR)

State of the Program:

Damon Stoudamire actually had a pretty decent year 1 all things considered. They were a typical young team that played to the level of their competition, beating the likes of Duke/UNC/Clemson while also losing to UMass Lowell/Louisville/Florida St and Notre Dame x2. That is not all that surprising with a young team and 1st year head coach, but those experiences should have been used as learning opportunities and with a strong core back I expect better on that front. They have a really solid core back with Ndongo and George back after strong FR campaigns and Reeves back as a vet. Terry is back after missing last year to injury so the backcourt should be a strength. That will be bolstered by the addition of McCollum from Oklahoma who is a score first PG but was forced last year to hoist bad shots with the Sooners so he may see his efficiency go up in a better offensive situation. The last addition to that group is FR Jaeden Mustaf who is a skilled scorer that is built to come right in and contribute right away. He’s a solid all around scorer, with a good jumper and the quickness to beat defenders off the bounce and finish through contact at the rim. That group of 6 will battle for minutes at the 1-3 spots, with Reeves having the ability to slide to the 4 as well. Inside Ndongo should start again at the 5 after a very productive FR season, but the 4 spot is pretty wide open. It could be Reeves, but O’Brien from Colorado would give them more size and outside shooting. FR Darrion Sutton could also have something to say, as his lanky, wiry frame and athleticism give him a ton of potential as a slasher and versatile defender at the 4. Overall it’s still a young roster but getting older and Stoudamire kept his 2 best FR from last year which is a great sign of things to come.

Prediction:

Ultimately they lost quite a bit but did bring in some talent as well, so I think they could end up in the same boat as last year with 7 or 8 conference wins. Ideally they have a non-conference that doesn’t include bad losses and in that case could find themselves in the bubble mix early on. I don’t think they’ll have enough firepower, but the ceiling is definitely higher than 12th. They were pathetically bad at putting the ball in the basket last year (246th from 3 and 256th from 2). Getting Terry back and bringing in a guy like McCollum could help in that area, and it’ll have to as I don’t see defense transforming into a strength. I have some hope for Stoudamire as they showed some fight last year and given how young the roster was that was a great sign. They have to take a step forward and bring that fight every night, not just for the top teams, and if they can avoid those bad losses they may outperform this prediction and have an outside shot at going dancing.

13.) SMU (NR)

State of the Program:

Andy Enfield was let go from USC after really having just 1 major disappointing season. Last year’s USC team had high expectations and they fell flat, no excuses, but his history is much stronger than that lone season leads on. He took USC to the tourney the prior 3 seasons and overall made it 5 out of 10 chances. You’ll remember him best from his first stop as HC at FGCU leading them to the Sweet 16 in that incredibly entertaining run back in 2013 that landed him the USC job. I say all of this to say SMU has a really good HC for probably the first time since Larry Brown was there for a short period. Enfield turned USC around and while he never built them into a power they were competitive and tourney worthy more often than not. So, he comes to SMU with a lot to prove, and he has to completely rebuild this roster as all but 3 guys left the program. Chuck Harris is the biggest piece to return, and he alongside incoming transfer Kevin Miller give the Mustangs a very talented duo in the backcourt. That’s about the only sure thing on the roster, but that is not for a lack of options. At the wing spots there are guys like Matt Cross/AJ George/Ambrose–Hylton/Gorener who could all play a sort of interchangeable 3/4. At the 5 there’s multiple options as well, with Traore an experienced big and Turkish 7 footer Yigitoglu an intriguing prospect in his own right. That’s just to name a few really, as you can see for yourself there are multiple options at each spot 3-5 that can and will likely contribute. Of all the teams in the lower half, this is the roster with the talent to where I could see them surprising people and breaking into the top half.

Prediction:

I’m becoming more and more cautious with these rebuilds, as the new HC bringing in a stack of transfers that on paper are talented hasn’t had a huge hit rate. I do like Enfield as a HC, and his play style of getting out in transition and playing fast will at the very least be fun to watch, especially with the duo of Harris and Miller leading the way. They should be able to score the rock, the question is going to be inside with how they rebound and defend the paint. Not sure if the Turkish big will be ready, and they have only 2 guys on the roster who have averaged 5+ boards/game in their career. That figures to be a key weakness, so I do not have the highest of expectations in reality, but there’s at least some pop on paper that makes me think by ACC play Enfield could have a solid group of 8 or 9 that could keep them out of the cellar in year 1 in the ACC. Long term I expect this to be a good hire, but rebuilds like this take time, and he doesn’t have the resources he had at USC, so it’s a much more difficult chore than his last stop and he only won 5 games his first 2 years there. Ultimately, have some patience SMU fans, as this year may be tough but I do think Enfield can coach.

14.) Cal (NR)

State of the Program:

Cal is in a rough spot as a program but in year 1 Mark Madsen actually had the most success they’ve had in some time. Unfortunately that entire team transferred out or graduated, so Madsen is forced to rebuild for yet another season. That is the hard part about coaching these days, as you are able to go out and get transfers but often times they don’t stick around, or they’re out of eligibility. A guy like Shrewsberry has taken a different approach in bringing in younger guys and developing them and frankly I think that’s a better long term plan. Nevertheless Madsen has 10 transfers coming in with just 2 scholarship guys back. The good news is there’s some high major talent coming, with the frontcourt having guys like Sissoko and Ola-Joseph from the Big 10 and Stojakovic the likely 3 spot coming from Stanford. There’s depth up front as well with some mid-major standouts in Omot and Petraitis so that group figures to be a strength. The guard play is where you start to have question marks, as there’s really only 3 guys to play the 1-2 spots that have proven much of anything, but only at the mid-major level and not elite even there. You’ll probably see Campbell and Tucker start but either way you slice it that group in the backcourt is going to be a weakness in all likelihood.

Prediction:

There is some meat on this bone, but ultimately it’s hard to win consistently in college basketball with average or worse guard play and that’s what I expect here. Stojakovic and Petraitis will likely man the 3 spot, but honestly the way this is constructed you may even see them together at the 2-3 spots just due to their shooting ability. Now, I’m not sure that will be good for them defensively, as even with good length those guys are going to have a hard time keeping guards in front of them. At the end of the day this Cal team is going to have to rely on dominating in the paint, out-rebounding teams and hoping they can get enough from the PG spot to get them into some offense and take care of the ball. Defensively they were soft last year, but it’s a new roster so it’s hard to tell what that will look like with new guys. Honestly, it’s hard to tell at all what this team will look like, other than to know the frontcourt is made up of guys who have produced at other high major schools so if anything is a strength that should be it. I don’t expect Cal to make much noise, but I do think they have the talent to put together a team that avoids being in the cellar of this conference. Last year’s team winning 9 conference games also gives you confidence in Madsen as a HC to get the most out of a hodge podge roster as well, so while the turnover makes me expect a step back from 9 wins I still think 6-7 wins is likely.

15.) Florida St (NR)

State of the Program:

It has been quite a fall from grace for this Florida St program after Hamilton seemingly had them rolling just a few years back, getting to 4 straight tourney’s including 3 trips to the Sweet 16. They were producing pro’s like Devin Vassell, Patrick Williams and Scottie Barnes and developing talented college players out of 3 and 4 star prospects. This may be a case of failed adaptation to the new environment in college basketball, and while I don’t know that for sure it seems on the surface that Hamilton was far more effective in recruiting and developing younger players than he was at bringing in a load of transfers and bringing them together. This year has been more of a mix, with a crop of 5 FR, after just 1 a season ago, and 4 transfers to help fill some gaps with the mass exodus happening. Jamir Watkins is the lone double figure scorer back, but both Jackson and Bowen are young guys Hamilton recruited so I have hopes at his return to his roots in terms of developing talent, but as we look short term this roster is not exactly loaded with proven talent. He brought in 3 guys via transfer that shot it 39%+ from 3 last year in Holt, Deng and Thomas and also added sharpshooter from Greece Rozakeas. Those 4 guys are going to help improve on their 288th ranking in 3 point shooting a year ago. Inside will be a weakness and a departure from what we’re used to seeing, as Hamilton always had a cohort of big men that challenged Purdue for the tallest in the country year after year. For what feels like the first time there are no 7 footers on the roster, so they will be playing small in all likelihood with Watkins/Holt playing a lot of minutes at the 4.

Prediction:

I don’t see it going well for the Noles this year and I would imagine the seat for Hamilton is beginning to warm. I still think he’s a very good HC and developer of talent, I just think he has not adjusted well to this new environment and lost some of what made the program special. For whatever reason he hasn’t been hitting big with recruits, as he regularly brought in top-50 talent and supplemented with top-100 and 150 talent that he developed. That foundation is no longer here thanks to the portal, and without the top end talent I do not see them finding success with such a young and unproven roster. There have been down periods before with Hamilton at the helm here, so I certainly believe he can get them out of this slump and back competing with the top of the ACC, but it’s not going to happen this year. Hopefully he can hold on to the young talent on this roster and develop these guys, as that is when he’s at his best. Add another good class next year and maybe there will be some positive momentum as we head into 2025-26. As for this year, it likely is even a step back from last year after hemorrhaging much of the talent that was here.

16.) Stanford (NR)

State of the Program:

Another new HC and rebuild underway at the newly lamented PAC-12 program Stanford, where they have been missing from relevancy for 2 decades now. It feels like an eternity ago that Mike Montgomery roamed the sidelines, taking Stanford to a Final 4 and Elite 8 during a stretch of the late 90’s early 2000’s that saw them as a 1 seed on 3 separate occasions and a 4 seed or better 6 times. Since his departure after the 2004 season they have made the tourney just 3 times and 0 of those have occured in the last 10 years. It’s actually wild to me Jerod Haase lasted as long as he did, but finally after 8 miserable seasons we finally have a changing of the guard, in more ways than 1 of course as they enter the ACC. It figures to be a rough transition, but new HC Kyle Smith is fresh off the best season of his career after taking Wazzu to the tourney and getting them their first March Madness victory in 15 years. He knows a little something about a rebuild. He will start year 1 with admittedly an underwhelming roster, with just 4 transfers, only 2 of which have averaged double digit scoring in Okpara and Saran, who will join returning star Maxime Raynaud as the only proven high level producers on the roster. The 4 FR coming into the program are by no means elite recruits, but it is obvious Smith is not coming into this looking for a year 1 flash in the pan, he’s building for the future and trying to make this work long term, a la coach Shrewsberry at Notre Dame. Yes it’s more sexy to bring in 12 transfers who all think they’re going to start and try to get it rolling right off the bat, but as I’ve said over and over, these rebuilds are tough and sometimes just bringing in a crop of young guys you can hold on to and develop is the better long term solution.

Prediction:

I like that Smith is playing the long game, and it’s likely as much by force as his own preference, as Stanford isn’t exactly a brand that attracts talent. He is going to have to grind this one out, building with FR and hopefully landing a transfer or 2 that will stick around for more than 1 season. If he can establish some sort of culture and vision within the program that will start to attract talent, and from there this season can be a springboard. By no means do I see them competing at a high level, but similar to Notre Dame a season ago just watch how this young group competes for Smith, and more importantly when the offseason comes if they choose to stick it out. Buy in is the most critical part of these rebuilds having sustained success, so while the record may portray some negatives, look for those positives heading into next season. He’s done it before, but it took 5 seasons to break through with Wazzu, so be patient and with time we may see Stanford return to some sort of relevancy.

17.) Virginia Tech (NR)

State of the Program:

Mike Young has yet to really break through with Virginia Tech, even with 2 trips to the dance under his belt he’s 0-2 in those games and was just an 11 seed in each. They have mostly been the picture of average with him at the helm never going better than 11-9 in conference but also winning no fewer than 7 such games. This has to be the least talented roster he’s had though, with just 4 guys returning, only 1 of which had even a ancillary role on last year’s team. The 5 transfers have some promise, but frankly haven’t been world beaters at their previous stops. Hysier Miller is the clear starting PG and probably the best playmaker on the roster (yikes he has been kicked off the team, bad bad news for the Hokies), but outside of that it’s guys like Burnham and Lawal who were just role players at a mid-major school last year and then Duke/Cal transfers Schutt and Brown Jr who are inexperienced. The entire roster beyond Miller is essentially a giant question mark. The FR could have a major role just due to the lack of proven options, and a guy like Ryan Jones who is a stretch 4 that is physically read to come in a be a force. He should definitely have a role, but needing him to come in and start and be a major contributor might be asking too much. Young did get guys like Young and Rechsteiner to stick around for their SO year, so a big step forward from them will not only be critical but imperative.

Prediction:

I am going to acknowledge one thing and that is I almost always have VA Tech a notch lower in the pre-season predictions than they wind up when it’s all said and done. I did say he has always landed between the 7 and 11 win range in Conference. However, I truly look at this as his worst roster talent wise he has had during his time in Blacksburg, and while he has always gotten more out of his team than I expect it’s still hard to imagine this roster breaking out with so little proven production. Could he get this team to 7 or 8 ACC wins again? Maybe, and frankly that may be the best coaching job of his career if he does so. I expect major regression, and how could there not be, look all the talent that left this program. This ranking is not an indictment on Young as a coach, moreso on the lack of talent he was able to bring in after taking on so many losses. Big step back for the Hokies, but lots of young talent to build around for the future if he can hold on to them.

18.) Boston College (NR)

State of the Program:

Earl Grant does deserve some credit for at least getting Boston College to be pesky last year, as they finished 71st in Kenpom, their best ranking since 2011, leading to 8 conference wins and 2 more in the ACC tourney. Yes, that is a pretty big step forward, that’s where we are with this program. However, basically that entire team has left aside from a few of the young guys that played only a minor role, if any last year. The simple fact is this roster is extremely young outside of the mid-major transfers that Grant had to have to bring some semblance of potential to this roster. Brown and McFarlane are going to have to lead the show, but both were rather inefficient last year and now have to endure a major step up in competition. The freshman class, paired with last year’s class, make up 7 of the roster spots, so there is undoubtedly going to have to be some production from FR/SO’s who have not played meaningful college basketball to date. That’s where we stand, and despite the progress Grant made last year, the losses appear too great to have much confidence.

Prediction:

As you can likely guess my expectations are not high for this roster, but I’ll try and go easy as this was a very difficult job that Grant inherited. BC has been irrelevant since Al Skinner’s days roaming the sidelines in the 2000’s. It has been 15 years of ineptitude, and at the very least Grant has won at a level not seen since those days. Yes, it’s been that bad. Now, he really swung and missed this off-season, and losing all of those guys to transfer is tough for any program to get over, much less one with this level of losing over the majority of many of these players’ lives. The positive outlook is he has 7 underclassmen to build with, and they are going to get valuable experience this year. He already has 3 more commitments for next year’s class (all sub-100 ranked) but still, if he can develop these guys into solid players he may have something over the next couple of years. The fact is no matter how you slice it he’s at a talent disadvantage, and even the best coaches know it’s players who win games. Unfortunately for Grant it is going to get worse before it gets better.