We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. For those of you who are new here stick this through for a quick explanation, for the vets on this page you can skip this intro unless you’d like a refresher. The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.

So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.

The 8 Archetypes are:

• Elite
• Great
• Solid
• Strong Enough
• Run N’ Gun
• Grinders
• Vanilla
• Wannabe’s

Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.

This week’s update plus 2nd graphic to show movement from last week:

ELITE:

Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St land here and Auburn and Duke are sliding in this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. Over 2/3’s of teams who enter the tourney as top-10 on both ends teams have made it to the Elite 8 which is an astounding number given just a slight dip to top-15 drops to 55%.

So far this year Auburn has clearly looked like the best team in the country in my opinion, given the quality of wins and how they’ve done so. Their defensive rank has lagged a bit but after last week they’ve vaulted into this category alongside Duke who flexes on the other end. Duke has more room to improve just given the number of FR that are getting better and better, but both are beginning to separate themselves.

GREAT:

The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here, as we do this week. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.

SOLID:

Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.

It does stand to reason you can have a bit more confidence in Gonzaga with their #3 offense than Oregon who is teetering on Vanilla status. Context and some discretion is of course advised here on all of these, but the implication here is that these teams have less of a hammer to lean on compared to teams like Auburn and Duke who are the best teams in the country on one end of the floor but also elite on the other. So while Gonzaga is elite offensively their lack of defensive might signals a potential weakness, albeit not to the extreme of our more vulnerable teams below.

STRONG ENOUGH:

This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Run N’ Gun” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability though, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.)

RUN’ N GUN

Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the track meet types, who struggle to stop you but can score at an elite level and whose ability to win relies on winning a shootout. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.

UConn, Baylor and Purdue are all solidly living in this archetype, looking like teams to avoid come March. Kentucky and Bama have both flirted with this territory as well, so there’s as many as 5 teams worth tracking if they can improve defensively over the coming weeks.

GRINDERS:

Similar to the Run N’ Gun group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.

Cincy has now joined UCLA in Grinder territory, with a couple of wins in true grind it out fashion as they barely scored over 1 point/possession against a poor defensive team in Dayton.

WANNABE’S

I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.

This week St. John’s and Kentucky both dropped big time into dangerous territory and are stories to watch as we keep tracking week by week.

VANILLA:

These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.

Ohio St is a new entrant to the top-30 after dismantling Kentucky so we’ll see if they stay hot and improve on their position. Clemson fell out and Ole Miss dropped into dangerous territory as they’re barely hanging on.