We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. For those of you who are new here there’s a quick refresher further below, but off the jump we’re going to dive into some thoughts on Auburn and address why it may be the prevailing opinion that the Tigers are the clear #1 and what that means for the contenders/pretenders discussion.

Auburn right now is the darling of every efficiency nerd out there, gasping at the absurd offensive efficiency numbers they have put up through 15 games. And it is historic, worthy of a gasp even. However, based on what I have setup here with the archetypes, Auburn doesn’t land in the top tier, with a 19th ranked defense they are left in what I would call the 2nd tier right now with teams like Florida and Houston. Many would find that absurd, maybe just write off the entire exercise based on that one fact. However wild it may seem, I am just looking at the data, and what history can tell us. Above all, if you’re just looking for me to tell you the highest rated teams are the best teams then you’re in the wrong place. I’m trying to separate teams, to understand why the best don’t always win it all. Right now what it suggests is that Auburn’s holes defensively are an indicator, one that puts pressure on their offense to be elite every night, which they have done well with so far I might add. Even the one loss to Duke they scored 78 points on 63 possessions which is highly efficient, but it wasn’t enough as they gave up 84 to the Blue Devils. Therein-lies the concern, could they be hampered in an Elite 8 game by their defensive issues, facing another top flight offense that could find a way to slow them down just enough. Iowa St nearly did it, leading by 16 at halftime only to fall by 2 while scoring 81 on 71 possessions. Even Houston pushed them to the brink putting up 1.11 ppp in a 5 point loss that they led with 10 minutes to go. So in their 3 games against other top teams they went 2-1 with all games decided by 6 points or less. What that suggests to me is the gap isn’t as wide as people think, because they are struggling to get stops consistently. I’m not suggesting Auburn is bad, or that they’re a first weekend upset pick, not in the slightest. But in a year where there are several elite teams establishing themselves, Duke/Iowa St, who show elite ability on both ends of the floor, you should at least think twice about crowning Auburn the obvious best team. As the data shows, we have seen time and time again elite offensive teams lose because they couldn’t get stops, and while Auburn is still a top-20 defensive team, they’ve fallen from top-10, so a worrisome trend. It’s also something that could get remedied over the coming weeks but I had to touch on it as the prevailing thought is they’re the obvious #1, but you’ll see below that’s not the thought here at this moment in time.

Quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.

So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.

The 8 Archetypes are:

• Elite
• Great
• Solid
• Strong Enough
• Matadors
• Grinders
• Vanilla
• Wannabe’s

Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.

This week’s update plus 2nd graphic to show movement from 2 weeks ago to this week:

ELITE:

Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with an whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.

Auburn continues to fade, as discussed above at length, but Iowa St and Duke are really starting to establish themselves as elite teams. This is Iowa St’s 2nd week here and Duke has been here multiple weeks in a row. Duke is going to have it pretty easy throughout ACC play, so it’ll be tougher for Iowa St to remain here but either way these are the two at the top of my list right now.

GREAT:

The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.

We have nobody falling here this week in a bit of a surprise but in weeks to come I’m sure that will change.

SOLID:

Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.

We have a bunch of teams right here knocking on the door of great but just not quite there. Florida’s defensive numbers are being bogged down by 2 games against UK and UNC in which they gave up 84 and 106 respectively. I see them moving up soon, and Auburn is fading defensively but could easily snap back up a peg. I’m not sure Houston is good enough offensively to crack the top-15 but they have bounced around quite a bit so we’ll see how it goes. The others aren’t as strong but newcomers Michigan and Arizona are getting hot as we roll through January.

STRONG ENOUGH:

This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).

Tennessee took a big hit with the blowout loss to Florida, but beyond Lanier they have nobody who can consistently score so I wouldn’t be surprised if they hang out here going forward. Bama continues to improve defensively as they’ve solidly moved here from Matador territory and are going to opposite direction as Gonzaga who has faded from Solid to here. Sparty finall broke free from Wannabe status and finds themselves here behind some great D and finally St. John’s, who has slowly been drifting toward Grinders status for a while now, will they hold on?

MATADORS

Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.

Finally a bit of a change here as Purdue and Baylor busted out and UK and Texas Tech found their way in. UConn is fading defensively but hanging around the top-30 thanks to Hurley’s offensive genius. Either way, can’t trust these teams.

GRINDERS:

Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.

UCLA seems to be a permanent resident here, unless they fall out of the top-30 like Cincy did. The Johnnies are flirting with this land and San Diego St is 31st but would join UCLA here if they crack the top-30 next week. No trust for these teams either.

WANNABE’S

I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.

We have 2 groups here imo, with A&M and Miss St being on the brink of Solid status and the rest hoping to break into strong enough territory. I doubt we see Purdue/Baylor/Wisconsin enter the top-25 defensively, but all are surging as the Badgers are new overall and Purdue/Baylor have made their way here from Matador status. All of these teams are still alive to be trustworthy down the road and all are improving week by week.

VANILLA:

These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.

UNC and Ole Miss are back as they re-enter following the fall of teams like Cincy and Clemson. They are not exceptionally strong on either end, that’s why they’re here, so if they do hang around the top-30 it might continue to be in Vanilla land. Oregon bounced back from their beating by Illinois but still haven’t separated themselves, and Pitt and Memphis look like they belong right here or not even in the top-30. Also Maryland is in a free fall, we’ll see if they bounce back.