*Most recent update HERE*
We’re back for another year of covering all things bubble in the lead up to the greatest post-season in sports. This is the place where, for the next 8 weeks or so, we’ll attempt to bring clarity to what is the the most complex post-season selection process in sports. Hell even as a self-proclaimed bracketologist myself I get lost in the weeds sometimes, so maybe this column is more of a cathartic release and organizational tool for me than it is a source of joy for you but hey, I appreciate you nonetheless. Every fan on the bubble just wants to know there’s a chance, a little drop of hope, a path to watching their team in the NCAA tournament. Well, we have 67 teams on the 1st watch, all vying for the at-large bids, so needless to say hope abounds as we steamroll into February.
We are going to assess every team that currently has a reasonable path, and we’re going to be even more stingy on locks after last year’s debacle. For those of you who weren’t along for the ride last year I locked Oklahoma, a team that Bracket Matrix overwhelmingly had in but missed the cut thanks to the chaos that erupted during conference tourney weekend. The bid stealers consumed the Sooners, although I still would argue they should’ve been in over Virginia, I’m going to try and not get bogged down by what I “think” should happen and focus on everything that could. Lesson learned, account for maximum conference tourney chaos, which means less locks this year and more content down the stretch, so a win win, but please don’t question why your team isn’t locked when they’re 19-8 and look solid, they could wind up being Oklahoma. With that, let’s get into it.
While we may feel confident about what’s at the top this year with teams like Duke and Auburn separating themselves, March still figures to be just as wild and unpredictable as it always is, but what we can’t allow to be wild and unpredictable is Selection Sunday, and that’s why we’re all here right? So, I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 67 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 1/27. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 22
Locks: 5
Bids Left: 41
Bubble: 63
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Louisville: 15-5 (8-1) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 12 (26) Q1(A): (1-3) NET: (25)
Pat Kelsey has done an unbelievable job returning this Louisville program back to a contender in the ACC in year 1 after a 2 year stretch of being a laughingstock. He’s the COY so far in my book, and right now the Cardinals are sitting pretty as they’ve already capitalized on their big opportunities in ACC play. They’ve knocked off UNC/Clemson at home and went to Pitt/SMU and picked up huge wins. They lost their only matchup with Duke to open ACC play, so the rest of the way is just going to be a schedule full of land mines they will have to navigate. The only Q1 opportunity left would potentially be Pitt at home but right now they are just outside the top-30. Their perfect record outside of Q1 and strong non-con SOS should keep them in good standing, but a slip up or two might make things a little closer than they appear right now. It’s survive and advance the rest of the way for this group.
Clemson: 17-4 (9-1) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 81 (80) Q1(A): (2-1) NET: (30)
It’s Brad Brownell’s 15th year at Clemson, and he has them on pace to finally make the tournament in back-to-back seasons. Coming off a trip to the Elite 8, you are starting to be forced to look at Clemson like a true yearly threat in the ACC. As far as a resumé this year they have two great wins so far, beating UK at home and Pitt on the road, and with a 7-4 overall record in Q1/2 they are in a great position, as of now. Inherently for the ACC teams there is danger around every corner, as so many conference games are going to be in the Q3/4 zone and losses there can start to really damage a resumé. They still have a few opportunities to try and cash in on, with UNC/Duke both still visiting and trips to SMU and FSU being Q1 as of now. However, that also means going 0-4 in those games would leave them 7-8 in Q1/2 so not only do they need to continue to avoid bad losses they need to be big game hunting in order to make Selection Sunday comfortable.
Teetering:
Pittsburgh: 13-6 (4-4) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 44 (56) Q1(A): (1-3) NET: (34)
Pitt started the season 12-2 and looked like a sure fire tourney team midway through January, until a 4 game skid jammed the brakes on this thing. They are now just 4-6 in Q1/2 games with really just 1 high quality win @ Ohio St, which was fading until the Buckeyes went to Purdue and picked up a huge win to stay alive. The unfortunate scheduling point for the Panthers is they really only have the upcoming home game with UNC as a meaningful resumé opportunity that isn’t on the road. They get a handful of road opportunities, drawing UNC/SMU/Louisville/Wake as all big time opportunities. That’s tough though because if you go 0-4 in those difficult games you’re just 1-10 in Q1 and that’s just not going to be good enough. They need to find a way to win at least 1 of those games down the stretch to stay in the hunt, and probably multiple, which is a crazy thing to say about a team in the field entering February but that’s the nature of the ACC right now. Opportunities are few and you have to strike when you get the chance.
UNC: 13-8 (6-3) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 14 (4) Q1(A): (0-6) NET (40)
The oscillation of the Hubert Davis tenure continues as the Tar Heels are struggling through another historically uncharacteristic season after being a 1 seed last year. They can’t seem to find consistency under Davis and are a staggering 0-6 in Q1(A) games this year, which is impressive as far as scheduling goes but to not capitalize on even 1 of those puts them in a really tough spot. The good news is that their ACC schedule is actually giving them plenty of opportunities down the stretch, it’s just going to have to happen all on the road aside from the Duke game to end the season. They get Pitt x2 and Duke/Clemson/FSU on the road, and not to sound like a broken record but just like the rest of these ACC teams they will have to find a way to pick up some big time wins or else they will find themselves slipping onto the wrong side of things.
Wake Forest: 15-5 (7-2) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 62 (48) Q1(A): (1-4) NET: (71)
Wake is back in a familiar position as the Demon Deacons have been barely on the wrong side of the bubble multiple times under Steve Forbes the last couple of years. They returned several guys from last year and had a ton of promise entering the season, they just haven’t capitalized much with just 1 big time win over Michigan early in the season. That win has aged very nicely, but their early ACC schedule hasn’t offered them much until very recently. They beat UNC at home to notch a 2nd quality win, although not Q1, and are going on a stretch of 5 out of 7 away from home that is going to offer up more chances. They also get Pitt/FSU at home so honestly the next 7 games are going to make up a critical part of their end of season resumé. We’ll have a much clearer picture on whether they can get back into the dance for the first time in 8 years in short order.
Outside Looking In:
SMU: 15-5 (6-3) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 106 (219) Q1(A): (0-2) NET: (44)
SMU has pretty much shown us who they are at this point, as they can beat up on bad teams but when they get on the floor against a high quality opponent they get drubbed. They find themselves on the watch though because on paper their resumé still gives them a chance. They obviously have to find a way to not get absolutely dog walked when they play good teams, but with just 1 loss outside of Q1 they are just a couple of quality wins away from being a real bubble contender. They still get Pitt/Clemson at home, so those 2 will be the ones I’m watching for, along with avoiding any disastrous losses along the way. They’ve already gotten the Duke/UNC/L’ville losses out of the way, so honestly they could be favored in all but 1 or 2 games the rest of the way. There’s a real chance for a run but again, a slip up or 2 would undue things quickly. They’re walking a tight rope but there’s still a chance.
Stanford: 14-6 (6-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-1) SOS: 93 (253) Q1(A): (1-2) NET: (70)
This one may surprise some people, and frankly it surprised me a little too but the Cardinal have earned the right to be on the watch even if it’s more of a longshot. New HC Kyle Smith has quickly improved the quality of play here, and it was highlighted in their trip to Chapel Hill in which they knocked off UNC to pick up the win that put them on my radar. The issue with the path here is they don’t get any of the top dogs at home somehow, avoiding Duke/Louisville/Clemson and having to go on the road to play 2 of them still down the stretch. Those are great opportunities but count the same (Q1) as a home game would against those 3. They’re going to have to find a way to steal at least 1 of those, along with handling business at home vs Wake/SMU. They really can’t slip up much the rest of the way, and a win @ SMU would be massive this week to keep them alive.
–Big Ten–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Michigan St: 17-2 (8-0) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 56 (132) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (17)
Tom Izzo might be in the middle of orchestrating his best work, as getting this team, with zero star players and absolutely atrocious 3 point shooting to be in this position in the Big Ten right now is unbelievable. There is of course plenty of highly rated recruits up and down the roster, but just watching for a little bit you can see there isn’t a single all-conference caliber player, but in true Izzo fashion the sum has been greater than the individual parts. They are in the pole position in the Big 10 as we approach the halfway point, but even with all of that said it’s not quite enough for me to lock up as just 4 Q1 wins could become a problem if they hit a major skid. The schedule in February does toughen up, as they have to go to Illinois/USC/UCLA/Michigan/Maryland who are all really good teams right now. They could quickly be sub-.500 in Q1 in a matter of weeks so while the record is pretty right now, with how much they can struggle to make shots I’m still cautious with this one.
Oregon: 16-4 (5-4) — Q1: (8-2) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 13 (56) Q1(A): (3-2) NET (27)
The Ducks looked like the favorite entering Big Ten play as they racked up wins over Bama and A&M during non-con play and were undefeated in their non-con games. However, they have hit some bumps in the road, some at home surprisingly, dropping games to UCLA/Purdue/Illinois in their own building, which is a surprise for the Big Ten where protecting your home court is always paramount. It could be some carryover from the Pac-12, along with some less rowdy environments out west, but the newcomers in general have struggled more at home. To top it off the Ducks just lost to Minnesota…welcome to Big 10 basketball. They do already have 3 road Big 10 wins to make up for the home losses, but clearly it’s proving more difficult than the non-con for them. They do still have an astounding 8 Q1 wins, second to only Auburn nationally, and with 3 Q1(A) wins they are still in a fantastic position that would take a monumental meltdown to blow.
Purdue: 16-5 (8-2) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 5 (10) Q1(A): (3-3) NET (9)
The Boilers have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and have navigated it pretty well considering they lost the NPOY from a season ago. Braden Smith’s emergence and Trey Kaufman-Renn’s improvement have both been critical to their success, but credit to Matt Painter as well as he changed the lineup around and made adjustments to turn them from sub-75 defensively a month ago to now top-25. Overall resumé wise their 10-5 record in Q1/2 is very strong, especially with the highlight of 3 Q1(A) wins vs Bama and Ole Miss/Oregon away from home. They are in a very solid position right now and with the elite wins, strong SOS and squeaky clean record outside of Q1 it’s hard to imagine they miss the tourney, but we’ll make them avoid a couple more losses before we officially lock them up.
Wisconsin: 16-4 (6-3) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 30 (78) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (18)
The Badgers are once again off to a hot start as we speed toward February, but let’s take a trip down memory lane so we can properly understand my future hesitation toward locking the Badgers. The last two seasons they’ve gotten out to great starts and then melted down during Big Ten play. 2 years ago they finished the season 5-11 in the homestretch and missed the tourney and a year ago they went 3-8 to finish but did still go dancing. So, needless to say we’re going to remain cautious as we move forward to see if they can actually finish a season strong, and right now they’re in the thick of an 8 game stretch that includes 6 road games. They’re 1-1 in their first 2 but trips to Maryland/N’Western/Iowa/Purdue make for a stretch not many can come out of unscathed. We’ll see where they sit when the dust settles, but if it’s anything like year’s past it could get ugly.
Michigan: 14-5 (6-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (2-0) SOS: 50 (154) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (20)
Dusty May has done an incredible job turning this program around in year 1 and is right up there with Pat Kelsey in terms of success in taking a downtrodden power program and whipping them into shape. There has been a lot of excitement from college basketball insiders about this team, even hearing the tag of “Darkhorse Final 4 team”, but from a tourney and resumé perspective they aren’t quite in the position people probably assume they are. They have 2 high quality wins over Wisconsin/UCLA, on the road, but to be just 3-3 in Q2 is not good, the 154th NCSOS is not great either. A metric I like to reference a bit is WAB (Wins above bubble) and Michigan sits at 34th, putting them around an 9 seed per that metric. Now, it doesn’t always correlate perfectly to Selection Sunday, and Bracket Matrix has them as a 5 seed, but I certainly wouldn’t feel like this is close to a shut case, especially after watching them lose to Minnesota last week and narrowly escape Northwestern at home. It’s not going to get much easier than those games so we’ll see how they perform for a few weeks before we even think about locking them in.
Illinois: 13-6 (5-4) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 14 (58) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (10)
This year’s Illini team is a bit of an enigma as everyone is infatuated by their ability to get hot and rain down 3’s on just about anyone, but they have laid up enough stinkers so far to make you stop and wonder. Underwood does deserve credit for replacing that much lost production and keeping them this competitive, but watching them most recently getting blown out by Maryland at home is a major red flag. Resumé wise they’re sitting in a good spot of course, but with just 1 Q1(A) win and being below .500 in Q1 at least keeps the door open for a meltdown still. I mean if you’re losing to USC and Maryland at home you can lose to almost anyone in this league on any night. They’re just 2-3 over their last 5 and head to a desperate Nebraska team this week, so this will be a fun one to track the rest of the way, as they can get hot and beat anyone in the league just as they can lose to anyone, as evidenced by the near upset of Sparty in East Lansing.
Teetering:
UCLA: 14-6 (5-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 33 (110) Q1(A): (3-1) NET (33)
It’s been a rocky road for Mick Cronin and Co. as they started 10-1 and then went through a rut, losing 5 out of 6 including 4 in a row to kick off January. Since then they have bounced back, and it appears Cronin’s antics in post game pressers may have gotten through to his guys. They’ve won 3 straight to right the ship, including a big win over Wisconsin, so it feels like they’re back. They had 2 massive wins in non-con play over Arizona/Gonzaga and the win to begin Big 10 play @ Oregon wraps up their 3 elite wins. Overall just 6-6 in Q1/2 is good enough right now, but with a stretch of 3 straight Q1 games upcoming this could devolve into chaos quickly, and it begins in LA tonight with USC on tap. Given Cronin’s style of play I don’t see them taking on a bunch of bad losses, so I’m sure we’ll see the Bruins in the tourney, but their inability to score will likely keep them on the watch all the way until Selection Sunday.
Maryland: 16-5 (6-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 57 (326) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (19)
The Terrapins are on a heater right now and quickly have gone from last 4 in to 8-9 seed range as they knocked off Illinois/Indiana on the road. They played an atrocious non-con schedule, the worst on the watch, but are now starting to take care of some Big 10 opportunities and build a legitimate resumé. Willard has gone to essentially only playing his starting 5, who have all played over 30 minutes these last 2 wins. It clearly has them rolling and they host Wisconsin in their lone game this week, so a win there and we’re probably looking at them in the “On the Right Track” category. So long as they can keep racking up Q1/2 wins it’s going to help make up for that NCSOS, which will be huge so long as the committee is consistent as they punished weak non-con schedules last year. They’re looking much better but the hay is not in the barn just yet.
Ohio St: 11-8 (3-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 5 (29) Q1(A): (2-4) NET (29)
The Buckeye’s started January by going 1-4 and looking like they may not even deserve to be on the first watch, and then they went to Mackey Arena and pulled off a massive upset of Purdue to notch a second elite win and a 3rd overall Q1 win to keep themselves alive. They have played a brutal schedule and boy would they love to have those 1 point losses at home to IU/Pitt back, but at the end of the day they have strong SOS numbers, multiple elite wins and plenty of chances down the stretch to improve their situation. They have some very winnable games at home that won’t do too much for them, including tonight vs Iowa, and Washington/Northwestern/Nebraska are must wins at home as well. Maryland/Michigan are the games you have to circle, as taking care of those home games will also be a must to notch 2 more Q1 wins and 17 overall. Add one or 2 road wins and now they’re cooking. That’s the path, and the game later this week @ Penn St is the perfect road chance to pick up and make this thing a little more comfortable.
Indiana: 14-7 (5-5) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 45 (170) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (68)
Same old Hoosiers it appears, as in spite of all the talent that was brought in they sit in a familiar position as last year. They got off to a hot start in 2023, then endured a 2-8 stretch during Big 10 play as the calendar turned, and I fear we are in the midst of yet another of those runs. They are now just 1-4 in their last 5 games, with a trip to Purdue and Wisconsin up next. After that it’s Michigan at home and then a trip to 1st place Michigan St. It feels like best cast scenario is 1-3 in that stretch, which would make the run 2-7, with UCLA and Purdue at home on deck. That’s a brutal schedule I will admit, but losing to Maryland at home and to Northwestern/Iowa on the road sets you up for this kind of stretch. I have severely diminished belief that this will be a tourney team, and with Woodson missing yet another tourney I would think he’s on his way to getting canned. However, narratives can change quickly, and they still have to play the games, so anything can happen and that’s why they’re here still. They do have a perfect record outside of Q1 after all, so the resumé is plenty salvageable.
Outside Looking In:
Nebraska: 12-8 (2-7) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 25 (156) Q1(A): (1-5) NET (63)
If you thought the Indiana Hoosiers were reeling take a look at Nebraska over their last 6 games. The Huskers have gone from solid tourney team with wins @ Creighton and vs UCLA to now enduring a 6 game losing streak, including inexplicable home losses to Rutgers and USC. That added 2 losses outside of Q1 and with just the 1 Q1 win they are pretty clearly out of it right now. They obviously are going to have chances to right the ship, but a losing streak like this is one you rarely see a team come back from. Their chances start immediately though, with Illinois coming to Lincoln in what feels like a must win because they head to Oregon after that. If the streak is up to 8 by next week they will likely fall off the radar, so finding a way to knock off Illinois is their only path to remaining relevant. We’ll see if they can get it done.
Northwestern: 12-8 (3-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 26 (312) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (49)
Northwestern had a massive hole to fill this year losing Boo Buie, but guys like Nick Martinelli and Brooks Barnhizer have stepped up and put them in a spot where they can go on a run. They have wins over Illinois/Maryland/Indiana at home to at least put them in the conversation. I will admit, it’s not a great resumé but they have the chances down the stretch to pick up big time Q1 wins at home which they’ve proven they can do already. They are also entering a 3 game home stand beginning this week with Rutgers and Wisconsin, then USC around the corner. Those are 3 winnable games that would put them in a pretty good position. Their schedule down the stretch is one of the easier I’ve seen in this conference with 6 of 11 at home and 2 road games with Washington/Minnesota which are winnable. They are an under the radar team to make a run so look for them to get rolling down the stretch.
USC: 12-7 (4-4) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 61 (273) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (73)
In true Eric Musselman form he’s been able to take a rag tag group of transfers and find a lineup that works enough to get this team back into contention. It took a while, and they suffered some lumps, but behind the emergence of the Desmond Claude/Wesley Yates/Saint Thomas trio they have picked up wins @ Illinois/Nebraska plus at home over Iowa the last couple of weeks and are starting to put together a real resumé. They are still out of it at this point, but have two chances this week against UCLA/Michigan St at home to completely flip the script. If they go from 4-6 in Q1/2 to 6-6 they would likely jump onto the right side of things. What a turnaround and what a coaching job by Musselman who has started 10 different guys this year, but finally has settled on a rotation and play style that has made them very dangerous in the Big 10.
Iowa: 13-7 (4-5) — Q1: (0-6) Q2: (6-0) Q3: (0-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 58 (188) Q1(A): (0-4) NET (62)
There’s not much to say here on the Hawkeyes, the path is extremely narrow but in the Big 10 you have plenty of chances to pick up big wins so they do still have a chance. The loss last week to Minnesota at home was almost the final straw, but that 6-0 Q2 record forced me to keep them here for at least 1 more week. Obviously, they’re going to have to pick up some Q1 wins, as at some point in order to be considered a tourney team you have to prove you can beat good teams. Their best win right now is Northwestern at home, so something has to change and next week they have Wisconsin/Purdue at home. Win those 2 games and all of a sudden they’re in the thick of it. Drop to 0-8 in Q1 games though and I think that shuts the door on their path. The formula is simple, win a big game.
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Houston: 16-3 (8-0) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 52 (70) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (3)
Everyone who knows college basketball knows who Houston is as a team, and until this weekend we had been waiting to see them win a big game. They proceeded to go into Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday night and someway, somehow, pull out a 2OT win over Kansas. That win was the evidence on the resumé they needed to back up all of the metrics that were saying they are a top-5 team. Now that they have a Q1(A) win to go with all of the metrics it feels much safer, and you can be sure they will continue to rack up wins as we move through the Big 12. Their resumé still feels a lot like Auburn last year though, who was elite per the metrics but had just 3 Q1 wins entering Selection Sunday. The computers had them a 2 seed, the committee landed on 4, and that’s where I’m looking at Houston right now. There’s time to improve that, and I’m sure we’ll lock them up soon, but for now they are looking to beef up that Q1 record to vie for a better seed. Good news on that front, they’re heading to Morgantown and then hosting Texas Tech which are both Q1 chances. 2-0 this week and lock em up we shall.
Kansas: 14-5 (5-3) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 8 (24) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (8)
The Jayhawks of course are on track to be a high seed in March, but they’ve had some hiccups along the way that keep them shy of lock status to this point. They did pick up massive wins early on over Duke and Michigan St that are what they’re hanging their hat on resumé wise. However, due to bringing in a lot of transfers it has taken some time for Self to find the right lineups offensively, and right when it seemed to start clicking they lost KJ Adams to injury. He should be back in a couple weeks, but with the quality of the Big 12, albeit slightly down, every game is going to be a challenge, as evidenced by their OT loss to Houston this past weekend. They have another big one this coming weekend @ Baylor, one they have to have if they want any shot at catching Iowa St/Houston at the top of the conference. Something Jayhawk fans are certainly not used to.
Arizona: 13-6 (7-1) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 19 (33) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (15)
Zona really came out of the gates slow this year going 0-5 in non-con Q1 games as they tried to gel together a group of transfers and returning guys. They got it going in January though with road wins over Cincy/WVU and then a big home win over Baylor. They have yet to play one of the top teams in the Big 12 but it feels like the home game tonight with Iowa St is the perfect opportunity to really prove they are officially a threat this year like everyone thought coming into the season. Resumé wise they are in a good spot as it stands, but tonight’s game against the Cyclones kicks off a stretch of 6 out of 7 being Q1, so the resumé is going to develop quickly in front of us over the next couple of weeks. By mid February they could be basically as good as a lock or as bad as being out of it, as going 2-4 or worse in those games could sink this thing.
Texas Tech: 15-4 (6-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 67 (302) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (11)
The Red Raiders played a disgustingly bad non-con schedule so there was a ton of pressure on them to deliver in Conference play. They have done so, picking up 3 Q1 wins in January already which is going to be huge as the committee made a statement last year in dinging teams who had awful non-con SOS numbers. Texas Tech ignored that warning, so they likely aren’t quite as safe as it may appear with an 11 NET ranking and 5-4 Q1/2 record. It of course won’t drag them all the way out, but it could cost a seed line or two, and if they start to incur some losses and venture toward the true bubble that will be a big stain on the resumé. It’s the Big 12 though so opportunity abounds, and they’ve clearly decided to inflate that record and just rely on winning big games in Conference, we’ll see if they can keep it up.
West Virginia: 13-6 (4-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 13 (57) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (43)
Right up there with Louisville the turnaround going on in Morgantown under Darian DeVries has been unreal. Especially when you consider they lost their leading scorer Tucker DeVries just 8 games into the season it’s amazing they are in the position they are at this point. They have already amassed 4 Q1(A) wins, one of the top numbers on the entire watch, with wins over Gonzaga/Arizona on a neutral court, a win @ Kansas and a home win over Iowa St. It’s hard to imagine with those elite wins that they find their way to the wrong side of the bubble at the end of the season, but we’ve seen stranger falls from grace and it’s still early. What I do know is they’re in a great position, with those wins and a strong SOS it will take a monumental collapse for them to not be dancing in year 1 under DeVries.
Teetering:
Baylor: 12-6 (5-3) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 9 (18) Q1(A): (0-5) NET (28)
Baylor hasn’t been all that impressive this year after turning over most of their roster, but with the amount of talent Scott Drew brought in it feels like they could become very dangerous quickly if things start to click. Playing without Langston Love has also hurt, but with just one elite win over St. John’s they are running out of time for things to come together. They are on the safer side of the teetering category but Bracket Matrix shows them an 8 seed, with several slotting them lower so they certainly aren’t safe and with a couple losses could be squarely in the Last 4 In/First 4 out convo. With all of that said bringing Kansas in this week is just what the doctor ordered, with a massive chance to add a 2nd elite win and create some separation between them and the bubble, not to mention that follows a trip to BYU so we could enter next week with Baylor feeling very good at 4-5 in Q1 or possibly in a very dangerous spot at 2-7. Big time week for the Bears.
UCF: 13-6 (4-4) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (0-1) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 16 (165) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (65)
UCF sneakily has positioned themselves in a decent position, in spite of their poor metrics, as they have some really good wins over A&M and @ Texas Tech/Arizona St. The non-con schedule was pretty bad but they did pick up that A&M win and 3 Q1 W’s has to have you at least somewhere near the field. Most have them barely in as of now, fitting the teetering category perfectly. Their 4 losses are to the 4 best teams in the conference, which is a failure to capitalize but also means the schedule is going to soften as we go forward. They are going to have to pick up some big wins down the stretch, but for a team that was pretty overlooked coming into the season they have done well to give themselves a chance at dancing as we enter February. They haven’t been since 2019 either so Johnny Dawkins is fighting hard and the schedule now in the Big 12 vs the American gives them every opportunity you could ask for.
Outside Looking In:
Arizona St: 11-8 (2-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 6 (32) Q1(A): (1-5) NET (59)
The Sun Devils actually started putting together a quality resumé in non-con play knocking off St. Mary’s and New Mexico, but Big 12 play has really beaten them down so far. They lost 4 out of 5 to start including a home game to UCF that was almost backbreaking, until they went to WVU and won to keep this thing alive. It is likely going to be touch and go the rest of the way with this group, but the strong SOS numbers and those wins in the non-con give them a fighting chance still even with the slow start to Big 12 play. They have several Q1 home games left with Arizona/Houston/Texas Tech all going to Tempe still, so the opportunities will be there to still give you some hope. Bobby Hurley is now in year 10 here and is still looking for his first tourney win and Arizona St as a program hasn’t had one since 2009, so I would think pressure would be mounting to get this program some momentum, we’ll see if they can find it.
Cincinnati: 12-7 (2-6) — Q1: (0-6) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 59 (282) Q1(A): (0-4) NET (48)
Cincy has to be up there among the most disappointing teams this year, as they entered a top-20 team with a lot of juice around the program but have failed to capitalize on every big time chance so far this season. They’ve already lost 3 Q1 home games, and in a conference like this that is extremely difficult to overcome, especially when the non-con SOS is so pathetically bad. However, it’s not quite February yet so there’s still a chance they start landing some big time wins. They are going to have to find a way to do it on the road now though, with just Baylor at home as potential Q1 chance, they’re going to need that and then some. It’s not out of the question, but they have a lot to make up for and will quickly start running out of opportunities.
BYU: 13-6 (4-4) — Q1: (0-3) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 83 (295) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (38)
It hasn’t exactly been a smooth transition from Mark Pope to Kevin Young, but they’re here entering February with a glimmer of hope to get themselves into the tourney. They have started 8 different guys this year and lost star FR Egor Demin for a few games earlier in the year, so it’s been a bit bumpy but they’ve been playing better of late. The other aspect that gives me some hope they could go on a run is they have several home games against the top teams left, with Arizona/Baylor/Kansas all still to come to Provo. They obviously are going to have to maximize their chances being 0-3 in Q1 right now, but this is one of those potential sleeping giants as the talent is there, it just needs to come together. Whether it will or not remains to be seen but I am excited to watch it play out.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
St. John’s: 17-3 (8-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 103 (200) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (26)
The Johnnies are in a much different position this year as they’ve handled their business, taking no bad losses, but the SOS is horrible and the few big time chances they’ve had they haven’t capitalized. With just a 1-3 record in Q1 they are in the dance as of now but certainly should not feel safe. The only qualifying good win was @ Xavier, who isn’t in the field as of now, so they are going to need to land a marquee win if they ever want to feel like Selection Sunday will be safe. The good news is they still play Marquett/UConn twice, so just winning those home matchups will bolster the resumé, not to mention the rematch at home with Creighton. It looks promising right now, but you can guarantee if they only get to 2 or 3 Q1 wins then it could get dicey if they drop a few stinkers down the stretch. Let’s not forget the 2-8 stretch they went through last year around this time of year.
UConn: 14-6 (6-3) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 55 (62) Q1(A): (2-0) NET (36)
Hurley and his Huskies have had a rocky path so far as they try to accomplish the 3 peat. While it hasn’t looked like they have quite the same punch they’ve had over the last couple of seasons, they’ve still managed to be 7-5 in Q1/2 games in spite of the fact they went to Maui and went 0-3. The young guys have stepped up and Hurley has found his best lineup, but this still isn’t an open and shut case, especially with their propensity to play close games. They are one of the worst defensive teams of any team on the watch, and that inability to get stops means they have found themselves in dog fights against basically everyone. I don’t expect that to cause the wheels to fall off entirely, mostly thanks to their top-10 offense, but it certainly makes it a fun watch as they struggle as much with Gonzaga/Baylor as they do with Providence/Butler. They have a great stack of wins, but if their fortune turns and they start dropping more of these close games then it could get hairy. Safe for now, but I wouldn’t get too comfy UConn fans.
Teetering:
Creighton: 13-6 (6-2) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 27 (36) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (39)
Massive credit needs to be given to this team and HC Greg McDermott as they took some lumps early, lost star transfer Pop Isaacs to injury and have still managed to turn the ship around and put themselves in good position as we enter February. They really locked in after a blowout loss @ Georgetown, and have gone 7-1 since that Dec 18th drubbing. Along the way they have stacked some very impressive wins, including Kansas/St. John’s at home and @ UConn. Even with all that, they still have the next 6 games that will all be Q1/2 games which could take this thing any number of ways. I like the trio of Kalkbrenner/Ashworth/Neal, so I’m confident they’ll finish strong and with strong SOS numbers and 2 elite wins they should feel good, but as we know things can turn quickly in this sport so no time to relax.
Xavier: 13-8 (5-5) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 40 (142) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (55)
We’re starting to see this Xavier team turn the corner in my opinion, and while they wouldn’t be in the dance if Selection Sunday was today, they’re now right on the precipice. It seems to have taken some time for the transfers Miller brought in to gel with returning guys like Freemantle and McKnight, but the trio of Conwell/Foster/Maddox are improving, especially defensively. They have picked up wins over UConn and most notably @ Marquette recently to put themselves on the map, but they still have work to do. The schedule softens up as we head down the stretch, so the record should really improve, but my concern is that 1-6 Q1 record that they’ll have to improve to punch their ticket. It’s looking like they have just 2 chances the rest of the way, maybe 3 if Creighton enters the top-30, so games @ Nova/Creighton need to be circled.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Tennessee: 17-3 (4-3) — Q1: (5-3) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 20 (133) Q1(A): (3-3) NET (4)
Tennessee has been able to remain exactly who they are, losing Knecht and replacing him with Lanier, albeit a small step down, has kept the buzzsaw running and they are in a great position right now. They picked up big non-con road wins over Illinois/Louisville and another in conference over Texas. They just missed out on another massive one @ Auburn, but they clearly proved their defense and intensity is going to allow them to beat anyone in the nation, as we’ve become accustomed to. They haven’t had many big time games at home yet, but this week they get 2 such opportunities with both Florida and UK coming to Knoxville. Go 2-0 this week and it’s a wrap. A home loss though and falling to 5-4 in SEC play or worse and we might have to hang on to them, as this conference is too tough to be dropping games at home and stay comfortable. We’re being stingy, but Tennessee is as close as they come to locking up.
Florida: 18-2 (5-2) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 59 (232) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (5)
Let’s make no bones about it, this Gators squad is as good as we’ve seen out of Gainesville since they won back-to-back chips in the 2000’s. They can score at an elite level, they rebound it at an elite level and are much improved defensively compared to last season. The issue they have right now are the big time wins, as their lone elite win is the blowout of Tennessee at home. Compare that to Auburn and Alabama with 6 and 5 such wins respectively and that’s why they’re locked and the Gators remain. In fact, the rest of the Gators Q1’s are over teams not in the field right now, and while they qualify I would like to see them pile up some more marquee wins before we lock them up. In a conference like this where every game is tough things could unravel quickly for teams, so at not even the halfway point in SEC play we’ll make Florida earn it just a bit more, especially with the putrid 232nd NCSOS hanging out there. I think it’s a matter of when not if, but with 3 out of the next 4 being road Q1 games they have every opportunity to make it an open and shut case.
Texas A&M: 15-5 (4-3) — Q1: (6-5) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 3 (31) Q1(A): (3-3) NET (12)
The Aggies have an insanely strong resumé right now, with 6 Q1 wins, 4 during the non-con slate, setting them up well as we get into the heart of SEC play. Wade Taylor is also back and healthy, meaning there are zero reasons for this train to not just keep on barreling its way toward a top seed in March. Their improvement from last year has come on the defensive end, as they still can’t shoot it a lick and rely on crashing the boards for extra possessions, but have gone from sub-60 on D to top-10. It’s a huge turnaround that has helped take pressure off of what is still a bad offensive group. Their 3 Q1(A) wins are strong, the SOS numbers are strong, but we’ve seen this program go on losing streaks, including a 5 game slide last year during SEC play, so I want to see a little more before locking them up. This week is the perfect setup for that with Oklahoma at home and a trip to S. Carolina. 2-0 and we’re going to feel pretty good.
Kentucky: 14-5 (3-3) — Q1: (6-5) Q2: (0-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 4 (44) Q1(A): (5-4) NET (14)
Mark Pope has done a great job to keep the UK basketball train rolling as he brought in a rag tag group of very talented transfers and they’ve put themselves in great position. They have a whopping 5 Q1(A) wins, one of the best numbers in the country, but have also lost 5 games, most of which were on the road to lesser opponents than those they’ve beaten. The wins over Duke/Florida/A&M/Gonzaga/Mississippi St are a stack of wins very few teams can contend with, so locking them is most likely going to get done in short order. However, with the nature of the SEC and the fact they are heading to Knoxville next on the heels of 2 straight losses I think it’s prudent to give them some time. They still have 4 home games that will be non-Q1, giving them the buffer of wins they need to hopefully avoid any sort of collapse. I’m sure they’ll win more than just those 4, but with a good chance of landing their 3rd loss in a row I’m going with a wait and see approach with UK right now. In a great spot, but a loss @ Tennessee would make it a 2-4 stretch.
Ole Miss: 15-4 (4-2) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 15 (83) Q1(A): (2-4) NET (22)
Chris Beard has done a fantastic job turning around this Ole Miss program, and just like at Texas Tech he has them contending in year 2. He did much better this year at tailoring the roster to his play style, getting smaller/quicker frontcourt guys who could help them pressure and get after it defensively, which has turned them into a top-10 defensive unit. That’s his brand of basketball and we’re seeing it in Oxford now, and it’s working to the tune of 4 Q1 wins already and a squeaky clean resumé outside of Q1. They are sitting pretty, but have also hit a bit of a rough patch, losing 3 in a row including a heartbreaker at home vs A&M. That’s life in the SEC though, there are no nights off and seemingly every game is in that Q1 territory. Either way Ole Miss should feel pretty good with those wins over Bama/Louisville on the road. This week against Texas kicks off a 3 game home stretch that, while not easy, is about as nice as you can ask for given what this conference can throw at you. Not a lock just yet but I can see it getting there quickly if they take care of business.
Mississippi St: 16-4 (4-3) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 23 (108) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (21)
Similar to a lot of these SEC teams Mississippi St has greatly improved their situation from last year at this time and are sitting pretty resumé wise. What they don’t have is what I would call an elite win, and while they technically have a Q1(A) win it’s @ Vandy, who is barely within the threshold to count. They really need one of the home games vs Bama/Florida/A&M to notch a mantle worthy W. Right now they’ve lost to the top teams in the Conference, so one has to start to waver on whether they truly belong with this group of teams we’re calling pretty safe right now. They did beat Ole Miss in OT, but that hardly has me confident they can contend with the teams in the upper part of the league. Now, that of course isn’t a big deal for just making the tourney given there’s 7 top-20 teams and a host of other good wins to get outside of them, but with how difficult the schedule can get it would be nice to see them knock one of the top teams off before locking them.
Missouri: 16-4 (5-2) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 46 (185) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (24)
Mizzou is probably the surprise of the league so far this year, and maybe the entire country as HC Dennis Gates has maximized the talent he brought in. It’s a wild group of names you’ll recognize from previous stops like Mark Mitchell, Tony Perkins and Tamar Bates, but this group of transfers has played very well and has notched 2 top-10 wins already. They are in a great spot, although the NCSOS is poor they are already making up for it, especially with that shocker in Gainesville where they really cemented themselves. This by the way is on the heels of an 0-18 record last year in SEC play, so for Gates to rally the troops and put together a team this good when his job could have been on the line is mighty impressive. The most recent win vs Ole Miss just kept the train rolling and with a few more top flight wins over the next couple of weeks we may approach locking the Missouri Tigers. Something I certainly didn’t think I would say before the season started.
Teetering:
Oklahoma: 15-4 (2-4) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 53 (146) Q1(A): (3-3) NET (47)
Once again the Sooners are looking to find themselves in the thick of the bubble conversations a year after being the first team to miss the dance. They did appear to learn a bit from last year’s experience by beefing up their non-con schedule, although still not great, it is much better than last year’s 274th, and it provided them 3 of their Q1 wins thus far (Michigan/Arizona/Louisville). The metrics all the while haven’t painted them in a good light, and their 46th NET rank has many putting them lower than you might expect. I would argue the NET rank should not be what people are looking at, as a great example was S. Carolina last year who was a 6 seed and ranked 51 by the NET on Selection Sunday. It will not sink Oklahoma, and their SOS improvement should help as well, but this start to SEC play should be the most concerning, as they’ve already lost twice at home and in this league that can spell trouble.
Vanderbilt: 16-4 (4-3) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 66 (337) Q1(A): (2-2) NET (37)
Right up there with Mizzou this Vandy team has been a huge surprise in year 1 under Mark Byington. The new HC brought in 10 transfers and completely transformed this roster into a team good enough to knock off both Kentucky and Tennessee at home already. While they scheduled probably the weakest non-con schedule of any power conference team, I think the SEC is going to offer them enough opportunities to make it a moot point come Selection Sunday, so long as they continue to knock off top teams. Their best win prior to last weekends win over Tennessee was LSU, so obviously they had major work to do in the SEC, and they’ve since added the UK win to put themselves firmly in the field per bracket matrix. I’m circling home games with Auburn/Ole Miss/Mizzou as the key games down the stretch that will beef up this resumé enough to keep them on the right side of things.
Texas: 14-6 (3-4) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 29 (285) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (32)
The Longhorns are mostly a rag tag group of transfers/freshmen that have taken some time to gel together. I’m not fully convinced they’re to their ceiling yet but with a couple of big wins here of late they’ve made a push into that last 4 byes group. They’ve picked up all 3 of their Q1 wins over the last 2 weeks, knocking off A&M/Mizzou at home and Oklahoma on the road to leap into the projected field. As we’ve said with every other SEC team, the opportunities are essentially every night, with chances to knock off top-20 teams around every corner so they can still keep climbing. They still host Bama/Kentucky, but also have home games with virtually all the other teetering teams so chances to separate from these other teams fighting for wins as well. It’s going to be fun watching these teams battle on the bubble as we go forward, and Texas looks to be right in the thick of things with plenty of chances left.
Georgia: 14-6 (2-5) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 24 (232) Q1(A): (2-4) NET (35)
Well this is a new one, as this Georgia program hasn’t made the NCAA tourney since 2015 and hasn’t won a tourney game since 2002. Another example of a predominantly football school starting to make use of their funding in hoops, and with Mike White at the helm they have been playing very good ball this year with a young team to boot. They’ve had a brutal schedule even for SEC standards of late, playing 3 on the road (Tenn/Ark/Fla) and then Auburn at home. You can excuse a stretch like that but they have to start winning tough home games, and it starts with getting back on track against S. Carolina. They do already have 2 elite wins beating UK and St. John’s, which helps make up for a bad NCSOS, but they’re going to need to continue to defend their home court just to stay alive. First they need to end this 4 game skid, and frankly with 3 out of 4 at home they need a 3-1 stretch to stay on track.
Outside Looking In:
LSU: 12-7 (1-5) — Q1: (0-6) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 47 (242) Q1(A): (0-4) NET (67)
LSU may be out of this thing but this is the SEC, where around every corner is opportunity to land a huge win, and frankly that is all their resumé is missing right now. They are 12-1 outside of Q1, so they clearly are a pretty good team, they just need to find a way to pick up some big wins to really make a run at this thing. It just so happens that 3 of their next 4 are at home, with Auburn coming to town this week off an incredibly hard fought win over Tennessee. Maybe they can catch Auburn asleep at the wheel a bit and land an elite win. Even if not they get Texas and Ole Miss at home as well so a 2-2 stretch over their next 4 would at least keep them alive. Anything less and they’re likely too far gone, but find a way to knock off Auburn or beat Georgia on the road and at 15-8 with 2 Q1 wins they would be right squarely on the bubble. The SEC truly is the land of opportunity, and a team like like LSU is going to get chance after chance to turn the corner and start winning big time games.
Arkansas: 12-8 (1-6) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 32 (150) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (57)
Well year 1 with Coach Cal running the show has been quite the adventure, as they started the season 11-2 including a win over Michigan so things were looking great. Of course, in this conference, life comes at you fast and the Razorbacks quickly found themselves 0-5 in SEC play and out of virtually all projected brackets. To add injury to insult they also just lost star guard Boogie Fland for the season to injury, so things hit a big low following that loss to Mizzou last Wednesday. In all they’ve only had 3 guys play in all 19 games this year, so injuries have been a problem, but there is no rest in this Conference, so we’re going to find out quickly what they have. They did bounce back at least which was encouraging, as with their backs against the wall they beat Georgia at home to at least stop the bleeding and keep their place on the watch for now, but the loss to Oklahoma has them on life support.
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Utah St: 17-2 (7-1) — Q1: (3-0) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 105 (111) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (31)
The Mountain West is down this year but the clear front runner in terms of resumé is this Utah St squad. The impressive thing about it is this is year 1 for new HC Jerrod Calhoun after Danny Sprinkle left for the UW job. He took Osobor with him, but Calhoun was able to keep several major pieces around and plug in the holes so well that they may be even better this year than last. They play 5 out and share the sugar, as they’re top-5 in assists and shoot it well from 3. There’s no star player but they just play free and loose offensively. Their resumé isn’t the strongest though, and with the weakness of the Mountain West they will probably take a hit seed wise due to their SOS. The big wins they have right now are on the road vs St. Mary’s/San Diego St/Nevada. The St. Mary’s win is aging like fine wine and qualifies as a Q1(A) win, so they’ll have to hang their hat on that one and just avoid taking bad losses the rest of the way. This is the Mountain West’s best shot at an at large.
Teetering:
San Diego St: 12-5 (6-3) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 38 (9) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (42)
The Aztecs are down this year just like the rest of the conference, but unlike the rest of the conference they played a legit non-con schedule and along the way picked up one of the best wins out there with a neutral court W over Houston, as well as Creighton as a little icing on the cake. They haven’t been consistent since, especially last week when they lost at home to UNLV. The bad news is they have just 1 more solid Q1 chance, @ Utah St, so building on the resumé is just not really going to happen. They can improve that Q2 record, but they are really going to go into Selection Sunday saying “remember when we beat Houston?”. I think those non-con wins will buoy them maybe more than people think, but the weakness of the MW is going to really hurt them, especially if they pick up a couple more stinkers like that loss to UNLV. It’s survive and advance for now though.
New Mexico: 16-4 (9-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS: 107 (77) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (56)
It’s the same old song and dance for New Mexico as we enter the stretch run as they’ve picked up a couple of wins that make you think they’re tourney worthy but also have picked up some ugly losses to make things close. Similar to San Diego St they’re going to be leaning on a non-con win over UCLA as their proof they belong, but the losses to San Jose St and New Mexico St are pretty nasty, especially when they’ve only played 2 Q1 games all season, it’s tough to make up for those bad losses. They still play San Diego St/Utah St/Boise St on the road which will be Q1 chances though, so finding a way to at minimum win 1 of those will keep them alive. I don’t see how they get in at just 1-4 in Q1 though, so at least 2-3 is what I’ll be looking for. I suppose if they run the table in every other game and enter something like 24-7 they’ll certainly be alive but with all of these power conference teams having likely multiple wins and way better SOS numbers I just can’t see it. The path is winning road games against the top teams right now, have to find a way.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Gonzaga: 15-6 (6-2) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 74 (25) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (16)
It’s not often we’re looking at Gonzaga with uncertainty when we head into February, but this year’s Gonzaga is not like the others. They have already lost 2 WCC games and have yet to play St. Mary’s, still have them twice. This is probably the deepest the WCC has been in the Mark Few era, even with BYU gone, so Gonzaga is not going to be able to just skate through conference play like they have in years past. They also didn’t build themselves as much of a buffer as they normally do, going just 2-4 in those non-con Q1 games. So, for now, they’re hanging on to November wins over Baylor and San Diego St which aren’t aging all too well as those teams struggle. I certainly don’t think the Zags are out of it right now, but there is a notion that a team ranked 15 in NET would automatically be in. Maybe that’s true, but this resumé is not very strong and that’s just the truth. Also, they’re just not as good as they have been, I mean they lost to Santa Clara at home. They still have to go to St Mary’s, Wazzu, Santa Clara and San Francisco. In a normal year I might expect only 1 loss from Gonzaga in a string of games like that, but this year I’m hoping they can at least split it, and wondering what going 1-3 would mean. Times seemingly have changed, and the WCC has closed the gap, we’ll see if they can switch a flip, but for now the Zags are on the ropes.
Saint Mary’s: 17-3 (8-0) — Q1: (0-0) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 149 (105) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (23)
I’m not sure how they do it but St. Mary’s continues to play the NET like a fiddle, playing 0 high caliber games, being barely above .500 in Q2 and still a top-25 NET team. This is why it’s not the end all be all for seeding, because this is about results, not about computer rankings. The fact is right now St. Mary’s hasn’t played enough high quality teams to feel like they should/deserve to be in the field. They are going to have to beat Gonzaga at least once, as well as some of the other contenders in the WCC. Nobody with 0 Q1 wins got in the field last year, in fact nobody with only 1 Q1 win got in either, it took at least 2 such wins a year ago. Fortunately for the Gaels the WCC has more chances than ever, and they have at least 4 Q1 games left on the schedule with a potential for 5 if San Francisco can climb a bit. I’m going to stick with wanting to see multiple Q1 wins by the end of the season to feel good about this resumé, and those start right away as they head to Santa Clara and then host Gonzaga this week. It’s nut up or shut up time.
Outside Looking In:
Santa Clara: 14-8 (6-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 93 (111) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (60)
This is the first time I’ve gotten to write about Santa Clara after bubble watching for a couple of years now, but after they went on the road and beat Gonzaga they are firmly in the conversation. They haven’t made the tourney since 1996, before any of these players were even born, so a run to the dance would be historic for this team and one I’m certainly going to be following closely the rest of the way. They started the season rough, going just 3-5 over their first 8 games but have gone 11-3 since, picking up wins over 5 top-100 teams, none bigger than the aforementioned road win over the Zags. They host St. Mary’s this week in another huge chance to knock off one of the big dogs in this conference, and if they can get that done they will still be very much alive for an at-large berth. I love stories like this so you can bet they’ll be here with a longer leash than maybe they should, but again with the chances that the WCC is offering this year these teams can legitimately make a case. We’ll see if they can keep stacking wins and make some history.
San Francisco: 16-6 (7-3) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 118 (178) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (74)
Of the teams in the WCC that look to have a path San Francisco’s is probably the most obvious, they have to win some Q1 games. The resumé is without blemishes, it just doesn’t have the top end wins that you need to punch a ticket. Their best wins right now are at home over Boise St and Santa Clara, so pretty meh. However, they still have both St. Mary’s and Gonzaga at home as games I’m circling as they will need to likely win both to have a chance to get in on their resumé alone. The pessimist in me would see that they just lost by 20 @ St. Mary’s so I maybe don’t have the highest hopes they can beat both of them at home, but it is not about what I think will happen, it’s about what could possibly happen here at the watch, and the fact is San Francisco has a clear path to an at-large. Handle your business and knock off St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. Ready break.
Oregon St: 15-6 (6-3) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (10-0) SOS: 125 (194) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (54)
The Beavers have an outside shot, mostly due to their home win over Gonzaga that at least put them on the map. The addition of Oregon St and Wazzu have helped to elevate this conference and added to programs that, at least for this year are adding to the depth of competitive teams. It has made life for difficult for Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, and the Beavers still get a crack at the Gaels next week. I have a bad feeling about this rematch with Gonzaga this week, as I’m sure they’ll have a tough time beating them twice, but overall I think the path is still there if they run the table outside of those road matchups with the top 2. We’ll have the St. Mary’s game circled, as if they lose that they’re out, and if they drop a stinker that likely boots them out as well. It’s a longshot, but if you can get to multiple Q1 wins you’re giving yourself a chance.
–A-10–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering: N/A
Outside Looking in:
Dayton: 13-6 (4-3) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 95 (47) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (70)
The Flyers had a very good start to the season, doing exactly what you need to do as a mid-major to earn an at-large. They beat Northwestern, UConn and Marquette, giving them 3 power conference wins and setting them up to cruise through the A-10 on their way to a 2nd trip to the big dance in a row. And then seemingly out of nowhere they fell off a cliff, losing 3 straight games, including 2 to sub-150 teams and then at home to a decent George Mason team. Getting caught off guard and losing a stinker is one thing, but 3 straight losses in games you’re heavily favored is a major red flag and has sunk their resumé all the way to outside of the field. They have bounced back to win 3 games in a row since then, in part due to the benching of Zed Key, which does again throw up a red flag that some dissension has hit the locker room. They have a trip to a feisty St. Bonaventure on deck so we’ll see if the lineup changes have snapped them back into gear, and if so they have some rallying to do in order to not have it all ride on the A-10 tourney.
VCU: 15-4 (6-1) — Q1: (0-1) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 217 (311) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (45)
VCU didn’t do themselves any favors with their horrid schedule but I do think this is a tourney quality team who with more opportunities may have a less bleak chance at an at-large bid. The issue is of course the lack of quality wins, and again they just didn’t have many chances to get them, with 0 Q1(A) games on the schedule. I would venture to say they will need to run the table other than the road trip to Dayton if they want to have any chance at an at-large, although after last year seeing Indiana St not get in it’s hard for me to make these cases for the mid-majors. VCU’s best win right now is @ St. Joes…not even close to good enough, and frankly the only better opportunity left is the home and home with Dayton. They may have to sweep that to have a chance, but at minimum they need to beat them at home and then win every other game.
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Memphis: 16-4 (6-1) — Q1: (5-2) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 39 (5) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (41)
Memphis played the non-conference about as well as a non power conference team can, taking a page from Gonzaga’s book and playing a gauntlet of a schedule. They have wins over Michigan St, Clemson and UConn away from home and then Ole Miss and Mizzou at home. That NCSOS is going to likely lead them to being the highest seeded team from the mid-major crop of schools and with an overall 10-3 record in Q1/2 they are sitting in a great spot. Obviously, the American is full of trap games, and they’ve already fell victim once losing to Temple, on top of their slip up vs Arkansas St. What they did scheduling wise, and then capitalizing on their chances, is going to more than make up for those slip ups, and they can probably afford even a couple more. They won’t want to take on too much water, but as it stands they are in a fantastic position and need to just grind through the American slate so they can try and make some noise in March.
Teetering:
Drake: 18-2 (8-2) — Q1: (2-0) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 246 (272) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (66)
I keep going back to the Indiana St example in my mind when I’m looking at these mid-major resumés and it’s just clear Drake is a step behind where they were last year. They do have that 2-0 Q1 record which is massive, and frankly that gives them a good chance. However, just 1-1 in Q2 is not strong at this moment in time. They may only have 2 or 3 more chances to improve that, but if they can get it to 4-1 plus that 2-0 Q1 record then I think they would have a real argument. It’s also worth mentioning that all of this is on the heels of their HC and best players all leaving the program, so a huge shout out to HC Ben McCollum who is leading his first program at this level and doing an insanely good job. He of course was one of the best DII coaches in the country, so success is not all that surprising, but it certainly is rare to see a guy come up from DII, bring guys with him and then have a season like this. He’s almost assuredly going to get offers after this season from power conference teams, but for now we’ll just enjoy the ride in the Missouri Valley and look forward to a hopeful Arch Madness champ game with Bradley that will be epic.
Outside Looking In:
UC Irvine: 17-3 (8-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (7-2) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 192 (201) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (50)
Let’s all welcome the Anteaters to the watch, and as one of the top defensive teams in the country they certainly have earned there way to this spot. They are 4-1 in Q1/2, and while the SOS numbers are very bad, having that kind of record in those games at least puts them legitimately in the conversation. Do they have an elite win? No. And frankly that is probably what will limit them if they do lose in the conference tourney, as they likely would face a similar fate as Indiana St did a year ago. They have the win @ UC San Diego, the other top contender in this conference, and will get them at home later with a chance to add a 4th Q2 win. They were 17-3 in the conference last year and lost in the first round, so not only are they hungry to get to the dance they also likely have a little extra to play for after that kind of loss last year. They deserve to be in the conversation, but their chances are very small. Gotta run the table and hope for minimal bid stealing.
Bradley: 17-3 (9-1) — Q1: (0-0) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 239 (270) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (63)
The Missouri Valley is once again giving us a path to an absolute massive championship game in Arch Madness. Last year it was Drake/Indiana St, with the losing Sycamores just missing out on the big dance. Now Bradley gets to try and knock off Drake, and with an above .500 record in Q2 they are at least flirting with the conversation, albeit pretty far out of it in my opinion. The obvious issue they have is not only no Q1 wins but giving themselves 0 chances to even pick one up. I know it’s hard for these mid-majors to schedule tough non-con games, but with this kind of schedule it almost makes it impossible to get in without winning the conference tourney. While they may be a talented enough team to be on the watch, they may just be limited by their schedule in the end. For now, they deserve some shine, but ultimately it may just come down to Arch Madness once again.
5-STAR Bracketology 