*Most recent update HERE*
In a week that featured both #1 and #2 going down, my eyes were fixated on bubble matchup after bubble matchup, as teams like Arkansas and Cincy made big pushes to get back in the conversation and teams like Iowa and Stanford missed out on chances to stay relevant. There were moves made all the way up and down the country, but the most surprising might be Kansas St who has gone from complete irrelevance to back in the picture with 5 straight wins including massive ones over Kansas and Iowa St. Last year it was Ohio St, this year it looks to be the Wildcats who are surging late and trying to make a push for an at-large after stinking it up to start the season. We’ve moved to 10 locks now as teams have begun to rack up enough big time wins to be safe, but our eyes remain on the roller coaster rides that are the bubble teams. Just when you think someone is turning a corner they hit a skid, and just when you count someone out they catch fire. That’s the fun of the bubble, and that’s why we meet every Monday, to make sense out of all the chaos that is February/March in college basketball.
So, without further ado, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 60 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/10. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Jump to Conference:
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 23
Locks: 10
Bids Left: 35
Bubble: 50
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Louisville: 18-6 (11-2) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 44 (27) Q1(A): (1-3) NET: (28)
The Cards handled their business this week, and while they didn’t add anything meaningful to their resumé it was an important week to avoid taking on any damage. Obviously, they are still in a fantastic position, with a 9-6 record in Q1/2 including 4 of the Q1 variety. As I said last week the homestretch for Louisville is all about staying focused and winning games they’re supposed to, as it’s littered with potential bad losses. This upcoming week is no exception, with 2 Q2 road games upcoming they’ll need to stay shard to avoid dropping one or even both, which would make things a little more interesting. I think they still have some comfort room over the true bubble teams, but in the interest of getting locked up and making Selection Sunday a little less stressful, they can just take care of business on the road this week.
Clemson: 19-5 (11-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 74 (75) Q1(A): (1-1) NET: (30)
It was quite the up and down week for the Tigers, as they couldn’t avoid the lookahead spot, dropping a Q3 game to Georgia Tech at home, only to bounce back and pick up their biggest win of the season when they beat Duke Saturday night. That win over Duke will be the one we remember, and while having that stain on the resumé hurts a little, it was completely made up for and then some. They are now on the doorstep of locking, although with just 3 Q1 wins it’s hard to feel like this resumé is impenetrable, especially with how much damage you can undertake in this conference. They have a hungry UNC team coming to town tonight, and fresh off of a massive win and court storm, I’m looking for that to be a dogfight that could add a 3rd Q2 loss. They then head to FSU, which is one you really should win but they have talent and could offer up yet another Q2 loss. With that said, we’re going to make them do a bit more to earn that lock status, but they should feel really good with that Duke win in their hip pocket.
Teetering:
Wake Forest: 18-6 (10-3) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 58 (48) Q1(A): (1-5) NET: (60)
It was under the radar but the Demon Decons had one of the biggest weeks out of anyone on the bubble. They had 2 very tricky road games, traveling from North Carolina to California and picked up wins over Stanford and Cal. That was absolutely massive, and while it received little to no attention, it was a kind of week that gets you praise in a place such as this. It ultimately amounted to just a Q2/3 win, but that’s a road trip that many bubble teams wouldn’t come out of unscathed. They improved to 6-6 in Q1/2 and by my estimation would be headed to Dayton if the season ended today. Lucky for them the season doesn’t end today, as there are many who still don’t have them in the field so they certainly can’t feel comfortable. They have a giant opportunity this weekend as they go to SMU with a chance to pick up their 2nd Q1 win. They’ll have to pull off what Clemson couldn’t and avoid the lookahead, as they first host FSU, but if they can go 2-0 this week they would be in a much better position, potentially avoiding Dayton altogether when we meet next week. SMU/Wake, Saturday night, a game with massive bubble implications.
Outside Looking In:
UNC: 14-10 (7-5) — Q1: (1-9) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 14 (3) Q1(A): (1-7) NET (45)
The Tar Heels took the first step in keeping themselves alive, albeit by the skin of their teeth as Pitt had their chances late but ultimately UNC picked up the Q2 win. They are still just 6-9 in Q1/2 with just the 1 win over UCLA to hang their hat on. Based on that I wouldn’t think anyone worth their salt would have them in the field right now, but they’re just 1 big win away from that being a much more convincing argument. They have an opportunity to do just that with a trip to Clemson tonight who undoubtedly spent all weekend celebrating their takedown of Duke. The Tar Heels need this one, and I would dare say they have to have this one if they want to get an at-large bid. They have just 1 remaining Q1 game after this one tonight with Duke coming to Chapel Hill in the final game, so after this one they’ll need to rip off 6 wins in a row anyway as it’s a very soft schedule. At 21-10 they would be in a decent spot, so that’s what we’re looking for, as a loss to drop them to 1-10 in Q1 might just be too much to make up for.
Pittsburgh: 14-9 (5-7) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 52 (57) Q1(A): (1-3) NET: (47)
I called Pitt’s home meeting with Virginia a “get right game” last week, and boy did they fail to do that, dropping an inexplicable one to the Hoos to pick up a Q3 loss. They extended their bad stretch with a narrow loss @ UNC later in the week and have now dropped 7 of 9 after starting the year 12-2. They are pretty firmly on the outside right now, with just a 4-8 Q1/2 record they have a very narrow path left to an at-large bid. They have 2 remaining Q1 chances, with their trip to SMU on deck being the first, with a trip to Louisville later in the year being the only other one. I am going to call this trip to Dallas a must-win for the Panthers, as I don’t like their chances in Louisville nearly as much. They are simply not going to get in the dance on their own merit with just 1 Q1 win, so this trip west is their lifeline right now, as they desperately need to pick up a quality win and end this losing streak.
SMU: 18-5 (9-3) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (9-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 109 (260) Q1(A): (0-1) NET: (39)
This SMU resumé is going to be very interesting as we move forward, as it is more akin to one of the mid-major teams we are tracking than what we would typically see in the ACC. They have played just 4 Q1 games and in each of those they got blown out, and while they continue to dominate in games outside of Q1, it’s hard to ignore how bad they’ve been against good teams. The metrics like them more than a Wake Forest for example, mostly because they tend to get hot and blow teams out, but with 0 elite wins to hang their hat on it’s tough to include them in March. There’s a good chance down the stretch they play 0 more Q1 games, with Clemson at home being the closest after their win over Duke. They won @ VA Tech this week but another Q3 win does nothing for them, but home games with Pitt/Wake/Clemson are the games I’m circling. Either way I think they’re in a similar position as UNC where they need to essentially win out to have a good feeling about their chances. 2 Q2 home games are on deck this week, which they absolutely have to have.
–Big Ten–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Michigan St: 19-4 (10-2) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 57 (135) Q1(A): (2-2) NET (19)
Sparty dropped their 2nd Big Ten game as they lost to UCLA earlier in the week, but did bounce back in their return home as they beat Oregon. Of course it wasn’t without drama, as they were down 14 at half to the Ducks, but played with their hair on fire in the 2nd half to comeback and win by 12. They are right on the doorstep of locking, but with just 5 Q1 wins, 1 of which is barely hanging on (Rutgers), I’m still hesitant to lock just yet. They finish the season with 7 straight Q1 games after the home game vs IU on Tuesday night this week. While I don’t expect them to lose 7 straight games, if they did and Rutgers falls just 4 spots in the NET then we could be looking at a team that’s 4-11 in Q1. All I want to see from them is to pick up 1 more Q1 win down the stretch to make this thing comfy and ease my fears. For reference, the 2 locked Big 10 teams have 7 Q1 wins each, so asking for a little more from the Spartans at this juncture is completely fair, especially with the mediocre SOS numbers and such a tough stretch upcoming. They’ll get their first shot @ Illinois this weekend, but of course will also need to handle the Hoosiers at home first.
UCLA: 18-6 (9-4) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 35 (87) Q1(A): (4-1) NET (25)
The Bruins are white hot right now, winners of 7 straight after that tough stretch in January that saw them lose 5 of 6. They picked up a massive Q1 win over Michigan St this week to bring them up to 6, and the win over Penn St added a Q2 win to lift them to 10-6 in Q1/2, a strong resumé. It has helped that the furthest they’ve had to travel over this stretch is to Washington, but regardless winning 7 in a row in a conference this deep is impressive no matter how you slice it. Mick Cronin was the recipient of some criticism during that stretch, but credit to him for pushing the right buttons to get his team to respond and up their level of play. They now have to hit the road again though, heading back to the midwest to play both Illinois and Indiana. Both of those environments are tough, and it’s certainly possible this could be an 0-2 week, although IU is really struggling right now. If they can find a way to nab one of these this week that would give them 7 Q1 wins which might be enough for me to lock them up.
Oregon: 16-8 (5-8) — Q1: (7-6) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 7 (63) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (35)
It might be officially panic time in Eugene as the Ducks have now lost 5 in a row and 6 out of 7 overall as they’ve gone from looking like one of the best teams in the conference to now being just 5-8 in Big 10 play. They still have the 7 Q1 wins thanks to a stellar non-con schedule that included wins over Alabama and A&M, two top 15 teams. However, after losses to both Michigan and Michigan St they’ve fallen to 9-8 in Q1/2 games, and with how badly they’ve played it’s hard to have confidence they’ll turn it around. They do get a reprieve with the schedule though, as they return home to play Northwestern and Rutgers, 2 teams they should beat. However, they did just lose to Nebraska at home so it’s hard to expect them to win any game at this point. They need to get this train back on the tracks, and this is as good of a 2 game stretch as you can ask for in this conference to get right. No more messing around or this might get hairy.
Maryland: 18-6 (8-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 51 (325) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (16)
It was a pretty ho-hum week for the Terps, although they did almost pull off a 6th Q1 win in Columbus, but a late Bruce Thornton 3 sealed that one up. They bounced back though to beat Rutgers at home and are now 8-6 overall in Q1/2, putting themselves still on the same track. They have probably the easiest remaining schedule of anyone in the conference, with 4 out of 7 at home and just 4 Q1 games. Still of course isn’t easy, but considering others have 7 Q1 games left they should feel fortunate they get to play Iowa/USC/Northwestern at home as we close things out. They feel like they’re approaching lock status given that, but at just 5 Q1 wins we aren’t going to go there just yet. Also, they have a trip to Nebraska up next, so they could drop to below .500 with a loss there, and will return home to play a struggling Iowa team that will just be a Q2 game. They’ll likely still be here next week, as a 1-1 split feels like an inevitability, but a win @ Nebraska could bring them much closer to locking.
Michigan: 18-5 (10-2) — Q1: (5-3) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (1-0) SOS: 45 (118) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (18)
Michigan had a very strong week, beating Oregon at home and then going on the road and beating a desperate IU team. They improved to 10-5 in Q1/2 games, and while they lack the Q1 wins as compared to their Big 10 counterparts, they are going to get plenty of chances down the stretch with 7 out of their last 8 being Q1, with just 3 road games. That sets up what could be a massive run, as if they can just win their home games they could pick up 4 more Q1 games and move to 9 Q1 wins which would push them much higher on the seed list. It will start this week as they host Purdue, a chance to pick up another Q1(A) win but also a chance to pass the Boilers in the Big 10 standings. If Dusty May can come to Ann Arbor and win the Big 10 in year 1 that would be an incredible achievement, especially considering the fact he had to rebuild the entire roster. What a massive opportunity on Tuesday night for the Wolverines, and it’s followed by a trip to rival Ohio St. Huge week for their season overall not just the resumé.
Illinois: 16-8 (8-6) — Q1: (6-7) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 17 (47) Q1(A): (3-3) NET (12)
At this point it’s hard to really know who Illinois is as a team, as you can see them look like one of the best team’s in the conference and the next night out they’ll lay an egg. They have an insane amount of talent, it’s just not nearly consistent enough right now. That was on full display this week as they lost to Rutgers, giving the Scarlet Knights some life, but then went to Minnesota and dismantled the Gophers. You just don’t know which team is going to show up night in and night out, but so far they’ve done enough good to feel pretty comfortable resumé wise. They have 2 gigantic Q1 opportunities this week at home, with both Michigan St and UCLA coming to Champaign. They could make this an open and shut case if they can pick up both of those of those wins, as getting to 8 Q1 wins seems like more than enough to get them in. It’s important to note though they do finish with 6 out of 7 as Q1 games, so they need to buckle down and find some consistency or they may take more lumps down the stretch.
Teetering:
Ohio St: 14-10 (6-7) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 5 (34) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (27)
They did exactly what I said they needed to do this past week, picking up a major win over Maryland at home and then dropping one @ Nebraska. Of course you’d like that road win but our message to them since the road Penn St win was just to handle their business at home and they’d get in. So far so good, and they’ll return home for 2 more games this week, with Washington up first, followed by rival Michigan. The latter is of course a much bigger game, and gives them the chance to add a 6th Q1 victory. It’s also their final Q1 chance at home, so they really, really need to pick this one up and I would dare say their at-large chances hinge on this one. They obviously could lose and then win some road games, but asking them to do that is asking a lot, so just handle your business at home Buckeyes, make it easy on yourselves. The best part about tracking bubble teams though, it rarely goes to plan.
Nebraska: 16-8 (6-7) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 24 (162) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (49)
What a roller coaster ride this has been for the Cornhuskers over the last month or so, as now after enduring a 6 game losing streak they’ve flipped the script, ripping off 4 wins in a row to position themselves back in the field pretty solidly. The win @ Washington to start the week lifted them above .500 in Q2 and then they added yet another Q1 win when they took down Ohio St at home to cap off yet another solid week. They’ve added 4 Q1/2 wins in a row now, taking them from out of the field to as high as a 8 or 9 seed. What a run, and it can continue this week as Maryland is coming to Lincoln on Thursday, presenting them with a chance to move to 6-6 in Q1. That is followed by a trip to Northwestern, yet another Q1 chance that could, in a perfect world, get them up to 7-6 in Q1 and make this feel far more safe than you ever would have thought just a couple of weeks ago. What a ride, we’ll see if they can keep it going or if we’re in for yet another turn.
Outside Looking In:
USC: 13-10 (5-7) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 36 (247) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (71)
Well it was a bit of a disappointing week for Muss and co. as they lost both road chances against Northwestern and Purdue. They were both Q1 losses, and they were without their best player in Desmond Claude so I don’t think it’s a reflection of there ability, as it’s hard enough to win on the road in the Big 10 much less without your best player. However you slice it though those were two major opportunities that they failed to land, and now they head home for 2 must-win games with Penn St and Minnesota coming to LA. This is a reprieve, as this is as about as friendly a week as you can get in this conference, so they have to handle their business to stay in this thing. Big picture with 8 regular season games left they have 4 at home, and they likely have to go at minimum 5-3 to stay in the hunt, although going 6-2 might be more realistic if they want to be in the field. That means winning at least 1 or 2 of their road games, which is why I thought that Northwestern game was so important. All of that is moot though if you don’t go 2-0 this week, so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Trojans, here’s hoping Claude is back in short order.
Indiana: 14-10 (5-8) — Q1: (2-10) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 30 (165) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (61)
Things have completely unraveled on IU’s season now, with their at-large hopes on life support as HC Mike Woodson declared his retirement at the end of the season, likely in lieu of being fired on the spot after the blowout loss to Wisconsin. They followed up that result, and news, with a close loss to Michigan, which makes it now 5 straight and 7 out of 8 Big 10 losses, and while we’ve seen periods of fight shown it looks like the Hoosiers season is all but over. They still cling to some life though, with so many chances and such a clean resumé outside of Q1 you can’t pull the plug on them just yet. They head to Michigan St next, so no rest for the wicked, but after that are 3 straight home games, with 2 of them being Q1. That is their last gasp, as they need to reel off all 3 of those to keep themselves alive. That would move them to 4-11 in Q1, which still probably wouldn’t be good enough but it would at least be close, with a home game with Ohio St still left as a good chance to get to 5 Q1 wins. That has to be the message from Woodson, and while I have zero faith in his ability to rally any sort of troops, you would think at some point both players and coaches would have some pride. So, they can either roll over and die or fight. We’ll see what they choose.
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Houston: 19-4 (11-1) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 51 (70) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (3)
Houston has been playing without Emmanuel Sharp, and grinding out two wins this past week showed how much they miss his shot making. They beat dreadful Oklahoma St by just 9 at home and then pulled away late from Colorado on the road to win by just 10. Most will be surprised to see them not locked, and it likely will come in short order, as Sharp is expected to return tonight vs Baylor, but with just 4 Q1 wins and 7 of 8 to close the season as Q1 this resumé could radically change over the upcoming weeks. They are obviously a very good team, but a la Michigan St they are going to double the amount of Q1 games on the resumé over the next month. It starts vs Baylor tonight and then they have a very tough one with a trip to Arizona after that. I don’t expect them to go 0-2, but I didn’t expect them to lose at home to Texas Tech either so I’m going to make them earn it just a little more before we lock this one up. They are still the same Houston team, this resumé is just lagging behind.
Arizona: 17-6 (11-1) — Q1: (7-6) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 10 (30) Q1(A): (3-4) NET (7)
Arizona is as hot as anyone in the country right now, and after going 0-5 in Q1 games in 2024, they have completely flipped the script in 2025, going 7-1 in such games since the calendar turned. They avenged their lone loss in that category on Saturday, taking down Texas Tech at home to push themselves to the doorstep of locking. The emergence of Henri Veesar has been vital to their success, and while the backcourt gets the attention he and Awaka dominating the interior has been the key to this turnaround. What keeps me from doing it is they have a very difficult 3 game stretch upcoming, with a trip to a hot K-State team trying to claw their way back to relevancy up first. After that is a home game with Houston who is always difficult to beat, making for a week that could easily cool this thing off real quick. If they do in fact go 0-2 they then have to go to Baylor to start off next week, so 3 Q1 games that could keep them from getting locked if they fail to capitalize. With how they’ve been playing I don’t expect that to happen, but this will be a big test to see if they truly are a top-10 team like many of the metrics are now showing them to be.
Kansas: 16-7 (7-5) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 8 (24) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (11)
Kansas continues to be a bit of a disappointment this year, coming in as the preseason #1 and after another Big 12 loss they’re just 7-5 in Conference play. The loss to Kansas St on Saturday was yet another disappointment, in a string of such results as they’re just 2-3 over their last 5. Of course, in true 2025 Kansas fashion that loss followed a massive win over Iowa St, so trying to figure out this Kansas team continues to be a difficult task. While they have plenty of winnable games on the schedule coming up, they are certainly not a lock to not completely unravel, even with arguably one of the most talented rosters in the country. They also have 4 more Q1 chances, but if that goes sour they could be sitting just 5-10 in Q1, so this thing certainly isn’t a wrap just yet. They have two more games that should be massive wins, but we’ve seen them play down to lesser competition, so seeing them handle Colorado and Utah with ease would provide some confidence they can fulfill their potential at some point.
Texas Tech: 18-5 (9-3) — Q1: (6-3) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 50 (294) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (9)
The Red Raiders extended their win streak to 7 Tuesday night with a comfortable win vs Baylor, but had it snapped late on Saturday as they fell @ Arizona. Not a bad week at all, but the resumé overall still isn’t overly strong, as shown by their 24th ranking in WAB. They certainly should feel safe right now, and having 6 Q1 wins is a huge bonus, but that 1-2 Q2 record is stinky and the horrific NCSOS is going to continue to be the black stain on this resumé. Their week upcoming could help them with that Q2 record though, as they host Arizona St and then travel to Oklahoma St, giving them the opportunity to flip that to 3-2 and overall 9-5 in Q1/2. That would make this thing much more comfortable with just 6 games to play, and with 2 more Q2 games around the corner they could rip off 4 in a row and be locked up before we get to March.
Teetering:
Baylor: 14-8 (7-5) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 5 (13) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (26)
Baylor is just kind of surviving right now, as they got handled pretty easy by Texas Tech but bounced back to beat UCF handily at home. That’s pretty ho-hum if you ask me, as they aren’t really improving their stock but they’re preventing themselves from feeling like they’re in too much trouble. They’re hovering around the 8-9 seed line, and with the 2 elite wins over Kansas and St. John’s (miracle W btw) they have a pretty big edge on many of the bubble teams. They have another week where a 1-1 split will keep them right where they are, as they head to Houston and then host WVU. I would not expect them to beat Houston, but a win there would really catapult them. The real test will be the matchup with the Mountaineers, as they have proven they can win on the road with wins already over Kansas/Cincy on the road in Big 12 play. They need to at least hold serve at home to keep themselves from falling to the real cut line, but believe you me we’ll be singing a different tune if they lose both games this week, so that game Saturday is ultra important.
West Virginia: 15-8 (6-6) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 15 (58) Q1(A): (4-3) NET (38)
West Virginia is playing an interesting game, as it feels like much of the hay is in the barn as they have 4 Q1(A) wins and are merely trying to not blow it. They took a step toward blowing it this week as they lost @ TCU to fall below .500 in Q2 games. They bounced back in a can’t lose spot to beat Utah at home, but things are obviously looking shaky in Morgantown as they’ve now gone just 4-4 over their last 8. In terms of remaining schedule’s their last 8 games might be easier than anyone else in this conference, with just 3 remaining Q1 games, so they have a chance here to finish very strong and allow those elite wins to carry them to an at-large bid. However, if they do drop all 3 of those, and enter at 5-9 in Q1 and add some more Q2 losses then it’ll start getting interesting. They have BYU at home this week followed by a trip to Baylor. A split keeps them right on track and helps even up that Q2 record, but if they go 0-2 the bracketologists of the world are going to start asking themselves just how much those 4 elite wins can carry WVU. A massive bubble tilt on Tuesday night vs BYU is what that means, as the Cougs are desperate themselves for a big win.
BYU: 15-8 (6-6) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 83 (295) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (41)
A big swing and a miss is what this past week was for BYU as they blew a major opportunity at home, losing to Arizona and then went on the road and got dog walked by a Cincy team that had really been struggling. I thought it could be a week where they went 2-0 and put themselves on the map, but now, in my opinion, they are firmly out of this thing. Bracket Matrix still shows some folks having them in, although that’s more to do with updates needing to be done, so I would stand pretty firm that at just 5-8 in Q1/2 with only 2 Q1 wins they are not in the field right now. Either way it’s close, as I have them in my First 4 Out, so the chances this week to beat WVU on the road or K-State at home would both be massive. I think they at least have to beat the Wildcats at home, but they have been playing really well of late, including winning @ Iowa St and beating Kansas, so it’s not going to be as easy as the quadrant system suggests (barely Q2). If they fall to just 5-10 in Q1/2 it’s going to be hard to recover from, so finding a way to grind one out this week is of the utmost importance.
Outside Looking In:
UCF: 13-10 (4-8) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (0-3) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 16 (174) Q1(A): (2-7) NET (72)
The train is officially off the tracks now for UCF, as they’ve lost 4 in a row and 5 of 6, going just 3-8 after starting 10-2 on the season. This weeks home loss to Cincy was particularly brutal, as it dropped them to 0-3 in Q2 games, a record that no at-large team can have. The wins over Texas Tech and A&M feel like a lifetime ago, and while the schedule softens as we enter the homestretch it feels like this weeks matchup with Iowa St coming to Orlando is their last gasp. They are going to get chances to even up that Q2 record, so there’s work left to do, but picking up a 4th Q1 win is going to be the first step toward salvaging this thing. After that they head to Colorado in a game that will help them clean up the Q2 record as we said, so it feels like a must-win week. While dropping to 3-8 in Q1 won’t eliminate them, it would put them in a position that feels like they have to win out the rest of the way. It’s a narrow path but it’s still there, and it almost HAS to include this home win over Iowa St. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Knights.
Cincinnati: 14-9 (4-8) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 56 (278) Q1(A): (0-4) NET (51)
Like a Phoenix rising from the ashes Cincy appears to have been reborn and is back in the thick of this thing. They endured a tough 4 games losing stretch and overall had lost 8 of 10 when I axed them from the watch last week. They responded, winning both @ UCF and then at home vs BYU. That added 2 more wins in Q1/2, with the former barely sliding in to give them their first Q1 win. They are still not in the field, don’t get me wrong, but they do now sit at 7-9 in Q1/2 which keeps them very much in the conversation at least. This week they get Utah at home which is a must-win game and then they head to Iowa St which will be a very difficult game to pull off. They need to just stay on track, as going 1-1 is the bare minimum right now to stay in the conversation. They have just 1 home game left that will be Q1, Baylor, so winning that is paramount and they’re likely going to need to find a way to steal a road game that’s Q1. That would be 1 of their trips to Iowa St/WVU/Houston. So, I’m looking for wins vs Baylor and @ WVU as their most likely path to getting in, with just 2 losses to Iowa St/Houston. Not sure it’ll be enough but that will give them a fighting chance. What a ride for Bearcats fans, after being top-25 pre-season to fighting for your bubble lives.
Arizona St: 12-11 (3-9) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 10 (24) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (64)
The Sun Devils are in an absolute free fall, and while they still have those 3 Q1 wins to hold on to, they’re losing their grip on any sort of hope they had at getting in the dance. The most recent loss to Oklahoma St may end up being the final nail in the coffin, but with the wins they have over St. Mary’s/New Mexico/WVU all away from home they are somehow still alive. They have played one of the toughest schedule’s in the country and it’s not going to slow down. They next head to Texas Tech and the are back home to play TCU. The TCU game is a win or go home type of game, as you assume they lose to Tech on the road, so losing to TCU would drop them below .500 and extend the losing streak to 5. They are one big win away from jumping right back into this thing, but it’s hard to trust a team that has been playing so poorly to figure it out. They may be in a better situation resumé wise than K-State, but clearly they are playing worse basketball and heading in a completely different direction. Still time to turn it around, but it’s not going to be easy.
Kansas St: 12-11 (6-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-4) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 31 (183) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (73)
Let’s be clear, the Wildcats still have a ton of work to do if they want to get themselves legitimately in the conversation. However, they clearly have turned a corner and are playing like a tourney quality team, reeling off 5 wins in a row including the massive wins over Iowa St and Kansas. They’ve gathered all 3 of their Q1 wins in their last 3 games and have another massive one this week as they host Arizona. That would give them a 4th Q1 win and lift them to 6-9 in Q1/2, which would bring them even closer to that Next 4 Out group. Yes, they would still have work to do, but with how they’ve been playing I have no doubt they can continue to rack up wins. They have to go to BYU after the Zona matchup, so a tough week but they went to Arizona St and hosted Kansas last week which is almost as difficult and they went 2-0, so anything is possible when you’re this hot. They have 5 more Q1 games total with 7 of the final 8 being Q1/2. The path is most certainly there, and while it would be a heck of a feat to pull off, they’ve already done a lot of the heavy lifting. Just have to keep plugging away.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
St. John’s: 21-3 (12-1) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (6-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 73 (148) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (20)
St. John’s just had about as big of a week as you can possibly have, and considering they entered the week with just 1 Q1 win it was absolutely massive. They first nocked off Marquette at home, but more impressively they went on the road and beat UConn to push themselves to 3-3 in Q1 and 9-3 in Q1/2 games. They desperately needed to prove they belong at the top of the sport, and did so with this statement week. You may be asking, then why not locked? Well they are in a similar position as Houston, as the low number of Q1 wins limits them and also leaves them exposed if they drop a few down the stretch. Now, they’d have to drop far more than a few to really find themselves in trouble, but it’s not exactly an easy road upcoming as they have to travel to Villanova and then host a red hot Creighton team. This is the week that can confirm their lock status, as another 2-0 week would make this an open and shut case, and by the way would start pushing them up towards the 2 seed range. Quite the turnaround for Pitino, who seems to be relishing in his role in bringing St. John’s back to national relevancy.
Creighton: 18-6 (11-2) — Q1: (5-3) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 36 (39) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (32)
The Jays have now won 9 in a row, with the best win of that stretch coming on Saturday when they beat Marquette. That followed an impressive road win over Providence, and they now sit alone in 2nd and just 1 game back of St. John’s in the Big East. It’s been a fantastic turnaround, as they really struggled early in the season trying to gel these transfers, and then losing Pop Isaacs to injury. They are rolling now though, with the trio of Ashworth, Neal and Kalkbrenner leading the show they are now a very dangerous team, and have built a resumé that has them pretty safely in the field right now. They are going to continue to get chances to prove that, as this week they host UConn and then head to St. John’s. That’s as tough a week as it gets, so if they stumble a bit I won’t be shocked. The schedule eases up after that, with only a trip to Xavier left as a difficult game after this week. If they go 2-0 they’ll be pushing lock status, even an 0-2 week would leave them 11-8 in Q1/2 games, plenty good enough to still be safely in the field. Important measuring stick week, but in terms of their at-large chances it shouldn’t hurt them too much if they slip up.
Teetering:
UConn: 16-7 (8-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 53 (66) Q1(A): (3-0) NET (33)
UConn has a pretty unique resumé all things considered, and that was furthered this week as they lost at home to St. John’s. They now have a better Q1(A) record than every other quadrant aside from Q4, pretty odd, but their propensity to play to the level of their opponent has made them must watch TV, regardless of who they’re playing. I thought they would beat the Johnnies, but with another loss they still sit somewhere in the 8-9 seed range. They finally got McNeeley back from injury, but it wasn’t enough offensive punch to get through St. John’s suffocating D. They now have to hit the road to play Creighton on Tuesday, a team that is red hot and presents a difficult cover with Kalkbrenner inside. After that is an easy W with a trip to Seton Hall, so while they may split the week that is only going to put them in a worse position if they fall to 8-7 in Q1/2 games with a bad loss out there as well. They still will be in fine position, but looking ahead they have just 1 Q1 home game left with Marquette coming in March, so finding a way to not lose ugly games is going to be crucial the rest of the way.
Outside Looking In:
Xavier: 14-10 (6-7) — Q1: (1-8) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 41 (132) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (55)
I said that a loss @ Villanova would be a death blow, and it may end up being that, but we’re going to keep Xavier on the radar for now. They are just 1-8 in Q1 games, not good enough, but they have the opportunity to finish the season with 7 straight wins, with the Creighton game at home teetering on Q1 right now. They need Creighton to stay hot and get into the top-30, and then beat them. The rest of their games they should be easily favored, with the trip to Providence maybe being the toughest test. If they can finish 21-10 and 13-7 in the Big East they are going to have a chance, especially if UConn or Creighton can get into the top-30 as that would add a Q1 win to the resumé. It’s not going to be easy, and going on a 7 game win streak to just stay alive certainly isn’t much to hang on to, but in the world of bubble all you can ask for is a chance. That’s their path right now, however narrow and difficult it may seem.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Kentucky: 16-7 (5-5) — Q1: (7-6) Q2: (0-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 3 (46) Q1(A): (6-4) NET (17)
UK continued their rough stretch when they went to Ole Miss and got dominated. They gave up 98 points to the Rebels, highlighting their inability to defend and giving them what was ultimately their 4th loss in 5 games. They were able to bounce back and beat S. Carolina, but that didn’t add much as it was just a Q3 win, so we’re looking forward as they enter just 7-7 in Q1/2. Now, that is a much stronger 7-7 given 6 of those are Q1(A) wins, so they by no means are in trouble, but with such a tough stretch upcoming they can’t be locked just yet. They have the rematch with Tennessee up next, and you can bet the Vols are going to be coming into Rupp with revenge on their mind so that will not be easy. They then head to Texas who will be hungry for a big time win, and can really fill it up if you don’t guard. I genuinely don’t know what to expect from this Kentucky team, so I’m definitely going to be slow to lock them. If they go 2-0 this week it’s a wrap, but I have little faith that will be the result.
Ole Miss: 18-6 (7-4) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 13 (86) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (22)
Ole Miss picked up a gigantic win when they took down Kentucky this week at home, dominating them from the opening tip. They almost got caught with their pants down in the following game, but scrambled to comeback and beat LSU with a tip in at the buzzer. With that win they’ve now won 3 out of 4 after dropping 3 straight, so they’ve gotten back on track and are starting to get close to locking up. They are still below .500 in Q1, but do have 5 total Q1 wins, so they really just need 1 or 2 more quality wins to make this an open and shut case. This week will only offer up Q2 chances though, with a trip to S. Carolina up next and then a home tilt with rival Mississippi St. I don’t think they can rise to the level of lock even with a 2-0 week, but that will help them stay right on track as they sit somewhere in the 4 to 5 seed range and are looking really solid. A loss isn’t going to sink them, but it would certainly delay the lock a little bit. Either way, a pretty ho-hum stretch for the Rebels as they gear up for a brutal last 5 games.
Missouri: 17-6 (6-4) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 29 (191) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (23)
Mizzou had a little bit of a reality check this week, as they went 0-2 in close games @ Tennessee and then vs Texas A&M. They only lost by a combined 7 points, so it wasn’t like they were totally embarrassed, but after Florida/Ole Miss/Miss St you were starting to wonder if they were a true contender in the SEC. They still are in a great position but were exposed a little bit as just a step behind the upper tier in this conference. It’s still an unbelievable turnaround by Dennis Gates after last year’s debacle, and they are by no means a lost cause. They next host Oklahoma and then go to Georgia, giving them 2 very winnable games that could take them from just 6-6 in Q1/2 games to 8-6 if they can nab them both. The home tilt with Oklahoma feels like one they need in order to bounce back, but the trip to Athens will be tricky, especially with Georgia desperate to pick up a Q1 win. So long as they can pick one of those up they’ll stay on track, but with just 6 Q1/2 wins a couple of losses could send them spiraling down into teetering territory.
Mississippi St: 17-6 (5-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 21 (114) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (29)
State played just once since we last met and it was a huge bounce back win @ Georgia to quiet the feelings of a collapse that were building last week as they had lost 5 out of 7. They’re still just 3-5 in their last 8, but that kind of win on the road in the SEC is one that will surely provide some confidence as they are in the midst of an 8 game stretch that are all Q1 games. They are just 1-2 so far, but they return home to play Florida who will be fresh off of that huge win over Auburn, so a prime letdown spot for the Gators which gives State a huge chance to pick up a Q1(A) win. They follow that up with a trip to rival Ole Miss, so this week is very difficult but also provides two massive chances, as a 2-0 week would move them to 7-5 in Q1 and be on the doorstep of locking. That’s asking a lot, as Florida looks dominant right now and going to Oxford won’t be easy. Dropping to 5-7 might have them more towards teetering than I thought they would ever be a month ago, but that feels more likely than a sweep. Wide range of outcomes here, so we’ll see what they can do.
Teetering:
Oklahoma: 16-7 (3-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 19 (133) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (44)
Another brutal week as the Sooners continue their slide as they are now just 3-7 in SEC play after going 13-0 in the non-con. Their wins over Arizona/Michigan/Louisville are going to keep them alive for a while, but if they keep dropping Q1 games they are eventually going to fall all the way out of the field. 7 of their final 8 games are Q1, so there’s a world where they are sitting something like 6-11 or even 5-12 in Q1 and at that point they would be in real trouble I would guess. I have no idea what the rest of the bubble is going to do, but I would think getting to at least 6 Q1 wins will be necessary, with 7 being more likely to have them pretty safely in. As of now they’re drifting down toward the 9 or 10 seed range, so it’s already getting dicey. They next have to travel to a good Mizzou team, a likely loss, and then host LSU in one that is a must-win that doesn’t add much to the resumé. It’s time for the Sooners to lock in, or they could find themselves quickly on the outside looking in if the next couple of weeks don’t go well.
Texas: 15-9 (4-7) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 24 (277) Q1(A): (1-5) NET (31)
The Longhorns had a tough week, no way around that, as they lost at home to Arkansas and then went on the road to Vandy and lost another. That’s now 3 out of 4 L’s, and at just 6-8 in Q1/2 they are nowhere close to safely in, and while they likely would be in today with one or two more losses that could easily flip. They have very little room for error now, and will be faced with 2 very difficult games this week as they host Bama and Kentucky. It presents them with unbelievable opportunities to pick up big time wins, but dropping to 3-9 in Q1 would drop them down to Dayton at the best most likely. With that being said it feels like they have to find a way to win one of these this week, as they are the final Q1 home games left for them. It feels like it’s now or never for the Longhorns, time to capitalize or potentially fade into obscurity.
Vanderbilt: 17-6 (5-5) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 55 (330) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (42)
One of the surprises of the season continues to hold serve, as they dropped one on the road to Florida, no shame there, but bounced back to beat Texas at home. They have been very good in Nashville so far this year, but I’m not sure if they’re good enough to take on the storm that’s about to come as the Auburn Tigers, fresh off a loss to Florida, are incoming on Tuesday. I would expect Auburn to come out with a vengeance, something I don’t think this Commodore team has enough to handle. They then have to go on the road to their in-state rival Tennessee, an absolutely nightmarish week for a team that is barely clinging on to a spot in the field right now. We’ll assume they drop to just 2-7 in Q1 and 6-8 in Q1/2, that would likely either land them in the Last 4 In/First 4 Out groups. Obviously a win in either game and they’re feeling great, but they do still have home matchups with Mizzou/Ole Miss that could still help them stay in the field. Those are the one’s I’m circling, even if they do lose both this week the path will still be there, but the pressure will mount.
Georgia: 16-8 (4-7) — Q1: (2-8) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 32 (230) Q1(A): (1-6) NET (34)
With just a 2-6 record over their last 8 games the Dawgs are beginning to unravel, as those 2 wins are over the bottom 2 teams in the conference at home, so the resumé has been taking hit after hit without adding anything. The good news is they don’t have any bad losses, and they do have 3 more home games that are going to be prime opportunities to add to their resumé. This most recent loss also happened to be one of those chances as well though and they failed to capitalize, so I’m not feeling too confident they can make a run here and stay in this thing. They next have to go to A&M which is brutal, but after that they host Mizzou in what feels like an absolute must-win. If they go 0-2 they will be out of it, and will have a trip to Auburn around the corner. Things could very much go from bad to worse this week, so that matchup with Mizzou feels like a season defining game as we charge through February.
Arkansas: 14-9 (3-7) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 20 (153) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (43)
After all of the bad that went on in January, the Razorbacks have gotten themselves back into this thing. They followed up their big road win over Kentucky with another road win over Texas, before falling at home to an elite Alabama team by just 4. They have clearly figured some things out since Boogie Fland went down, and while it’s crazy to suggest losing your leading scorer makes you better it seems to have forced other guys to step up and they have found success in their new roles. Ivisic and Johnell Davis have both been instrumental, as both have notched 20+ point games during this little run. They still don’t have a great resumé, but with 3 Q1(A) wins they have given themselves a chance, and they have 4 very winnable home games left on the schedule plus a road trip to S. Carolina. Finishing 5-3 would certainly put them in the conversation, and could definitely be enough to get them in. That is very attainable, and seems more likely than a few of the other teams ahead of them right now going on a run. Things are looking up for Calipari and Co.
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Utah St: 20-3 (11-2) — Q1: (2-0) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 107 (108) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (39)
There’s not much to say about this Utah St team after this past week, as they went 2-0 but added just a Q3 and 4 win to the resumé. 5 of their final 7 games are going to be Q1/2, with both this next week falling in those quadrants. They first host Colorado St in a Q2 chance and then they head to New Mexico for the revenge game. There’s no reason they should lose at home, so at worst they will split this week and still be pretty safely in the field at 8-4 in Q1/2. If they can pick up both wins then you’ll start feeling more certain they are going to find themselves safe come Selection Sunday. That would also tie them with the Lobos atop the Mountain West, so on Sunday there will be a ton up for grabs when they travel to New Mexico. They need to avoid the lookahead spot, but I expect a massive matchup on Sunday in the Mountain West.
New Mexico: 19-4 (12-1) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-1) SOS: 87 (64) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (36)
The Lobos stayed hot this week, growing their win streak to 6 with blowout wins over Colorado St and Air Force. They have what should be another blowout win up next as they host Wyoming, but it’s the following game all eyes should be on as Utah St is heading into Albuquerque looking to avenge their home loss a few weeks ago. That game will have massive implications in the Mountain West conference race, so I will certainly be tuning in, and a win by either team will help the resumé as well. Including that game they finish with 4 chances down the stretch to add to their Q1/2 record, which sits at an impressive 8-2 right now. They’ve needed all those wins after taking on 2 very bad losses, but I would expect them to be safely in the field as long as they can win 2 of those games.
San Diego St: 14-6 (8-4) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 61 (9) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (52)
The Aztecs dropped a rough one in their lone game since we last met, losing on the road to Colorado St which dropped them to just 5-5 in Q1/2 games. They have strong SOS numbers, but that is only going to carry them so far, and with all of the chances these power conference teams are getting I feel like this resumé could get passed over. This week isn’t going to help a ton, as they head to San Jose St and then host Boise St, neither of which will be Q1, although Boise will count as Q2 so it could help a little bit. I genuinely think they can only afford 1 more loss, on the road @ Utah St, so I’m going to say they need to finish 7-1 in order to feel comfortable. If it’s 6-2 it will be close, and will depend more on what the rest of the bubble does. It starts this week though as they just need to handle business and not slip up anymore like they did a week ago.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Saint Mary’s: 20-4 (11-1) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 88 (91) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (21)
I was curious how St. Mary’s would fare this week as they headed on the road to face 2 hungry bubble teams, fresh off a win over Gonzaga. They did trip up and lose @ San Francisco, but the bounce back easy win @ Oregon St did a lot to quell any fears I had for them. They are simply just a good basketball team and should be heavily favored in all but 1 of their games the rest of the way, the rematch @ Gonzaga. This one feels pretty solid, and while they could of course drop some that we don’t expect, that’s not really who they are, as they defend well and traditionally always tear through the bottom half of this conference. I would expect that to continue, and even if they lose @ Gonzaga they will remain well above the danger zone, so it’s all about avoiding the land mines as we close out February.
Teetering:
Gonzaga: 18-7 (9-3) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 75 (28) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (14)
Gonzaga is just not all that good this year, I think we have to face that fact, as their 2 best wins are over Baylor/San Diego St who are also down a peg this year from what they usually are. Those wins are good enough to keep them in the field, mostly thanks to the computers also loving them and having them in the top-15. In no world is this team top-15, but the computers say it so it must be true right? They’re 48th in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), so while they may look great to the metrics the results are not so great, and to me they’re barely in the field right now and should be feeling desperate for big time wins. The unfortunate part is they aren’t going to have any big time chances until the final 3 games of the season, when they host St. Mary’s for the revenge game and then go to Santa Clara and San Fran. That’s going to be the stretch that tests them and helps them improve on that 5-7 Q1/2 record. Until then they should be favored in every game, so there shouldn’t be much to report on Gonzaga until late in February, unless it’s very bad news.
Outside Looking In:
San Fran: 19-6 (10-3) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 106 (176) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (60)
What an incredible week for the Dons, as they took down Saint Mary’s and then avoided the let down spot as they went on the road to beat Loyola 2 days later. The win over the Gaels puts them firmly in the conversation, and keeps them on track to find their way in if they can stick to the plan (beat St Mary’s/Gonzaga at home). 1 step down, 1 to go, and while they probably aren’t going to fare well @ Gonzaga this week they are still going to finish with them at home to end the season. That final 2 game stretch is what I’ll be watching, as they play @ Oregon St and then host Gonzaga. Win those 2 games, plus the obvious ones over San Diego and Pacific, and I think the Dons would have a legitimate argument to get an at-large bid. We’ll see if they can get it done.
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Memphis: 20-4 (10-1) — Q1: (5-2) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 65 (5) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (45)
Memphis gave themselves a ton of wiggle room thanks to playing the 5th strongest non-con schedule and taking full advantage of their opportunities. They continued to roll and avoid falling victim to a sense of complacency that would be easy to succomb to, picking up home wins over bad teams. They are not really going to be challenged the rest of the way, as there isn’t a top-100 team on the schedule until a potential conference tourney rematch with North Texas. The fall off of the American is wild, and you would think after this season Memphis would be desperate to get into a better conference. Either way, they can essentially coast to the conference tourney at this point, as I don’t even think they have to play their best ball to win games right now, and that could be a problem Penny Hardaway has to navigate in order to keep them focused and getting better along the way.
Teetering:
Drake: 20-2 (10-2) — Q1: (2-0) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (9-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 238 (234) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (57)
Drake fans have to be massive Vandy/K-State fans right now, as they’re the only wins they have that look good and if they fall outside of Q1 then this resumé would take a major hit. They need the Commodores to continue to pick up wins in the SEC to keep that win there, and they need to just keep on winning games in the MVC. I continue to be amazed at what HC Ben McCollum has done here, and if I was a major conference team looking to go in a new direction (shoutout IU), I would be going after McCollum as the dude can clearly coach. If they win out it’ll be very interesting where they sit, but after last year’s debacle with Indiana St it’s hard to imagine they could get in without the Arch Madness title, but they have done so well they deserve to at least be on the watch for the stretch run. Any loss the rest of the way would be devastating.
Outside Looking In:
VCU: 18-5 (9-2) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (11-1) SOS: 164 (293) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (37)
VCU seems to be getting attention as a potential at-large team, and while they do have an overall 5-4 Q1/2 record, having just 1 Q1 win is not enough in my opinion. There are others that disagree though, and if they run the table the rest of the way they undoubtedly would be getting discussed. They have 0 Q1 opportunities left on the schedule, so I really don’t see how they could get in with just 1 Q1 win, but again, they’ll certainly get discussed. Last year it took 2 Q1 wins to get in, and with the way the committee treated teams with bad SOS numbers last year I just don’t see it. However, I am allowed to be wrong, and after that road win over Dayton it’s clear VCU is the team to beat, although George Mason is coming on strong. Just keep winning, that’s all they can do. Maybe next year they can schedule like Dayton and give themselves a better shot.
UC San Diego: 18-4 (10-2) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (0-1) Q3: (7-2) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 193 (227) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (50)
With their win over UC Irvine, to enact their revenge, they now have a better argument in my opinion than the Anteaters. They have a massive win @ Utah St that UC Irvine can’t compete with, and while they have fewer Q2 wins they have a chance to add one later when they travel to Cal St Northridge in late February. I still think either way one of these teams is going to have to win the conference tourney to get in, but they at least still deserve to be in the conversation, especially with that Q1(A) win. Again, as I’ll continue to say with all of these low major teams, they don’t do themselves any favors with the scheduling, as they surely could try and schedule some top teams from the mid-major conferences or something at least. To the Tritons credit they did at least have JMU and Toledo on the schedule, they just happened to have down seasons, but still it’s always going to be about major wins and if you want to have a chance at an at-large it’s going to be tough to compete with SEC/Big 10 teams who are playing 15 or more Q1 games to your 2 or 3. Even McNeese was able to land 5 Q1/2 games, which at least gave them more of a fighting chance, even though they failed to cash in. Either way, the Tritons need to win out and hope the rest of the bubble flounders.
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