*Most Recent Update HERE*
It’s time we officially start calling this the worst bubble in the history of mankind, and while I’m all for the bubble races I have to level with you, the reader, this is the least compelling bubble I can remember. However, allow me to try and make it interesting: We have team after team missing out on opportunities, with big time brands like UNC/Indiana having such bad resumés they may lose out to the likes of Drake/UC San Diego. Which begs the question, will the committee finally throw the mid-majors a bone? It feels like year after year we see a 25+ win mid-major team flounder in the conference tourney and get sent to the NIT because they just didn’t pick up enough Q1 wins to keep up with the power conference schedules. However, this year we have teams like those big brands I just mentioned who have 1 or 2 such wins battling for the last spots, will the UC Irvines or George Masons of the world finally have a shot? I for one would rather watch teams such as those get a shot at an Arkansas or Vandy, than watch UNC/Indiana/SMU/Cincy lose yet another Q1 game in Dayton. At some point, after 10 Q1 losses they’ve proven who they are, or better yet who they aren’t. I’m not convinced they will do what most fans would like them to, but I’m holding out hope, and have added even more of these mid-majors to the watch as I’m about over watching teams like USC/UCF/Arizona St/Pitt blow chance after chance and try and convince myself they still have a shot. Give me the VCU and UC Irvine. Make this the year of the mid-major. I digress.
For those new here, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 61 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/17. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Jump to Conference:
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 22
Locks: 17
Bids Left: 29
Bubble: 44
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Clemson: 21-5 (13-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (7-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 75 (83) Q1(A): (1-1) NET: (26)
Clemson was absolutely dominant this week, avoiding what was a natural letdown after the massive Duke win they obliterated both UNC and Florida St this week to notch 2 more Q2 wins. They are now 10-4 in Q1/2 games, very impressive, but what is keeping them from being a better seed and locked up here is most of those wins are of the Q2 variety. They are obviously going to be puffing their chest out with that win over Duke on the resumé, but they certainly can’t afford to go on a major losing streak as we finish out the regular season. The way they are playing there’s no reason to think that’s even a possibility but I know better than to think there’s zero chance. They only play once this week, heading to an extremely desperate SMU team, so they could fall to just 3-3 in Q1 with zero chances left until the ACC tourney. It’s definitely not a must-win, but a loss to SMU does put a little heat on them to at least finish the ACC season 4-0 after that, as all 4 are Q3 or worse and I would not want to add more bad losses if I were them.
Louisville: 20-6 (13-2) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (7-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 54 (29) Q1(A): (1-3) NET: (27)
Pat Kelsey is doing a tremendous job right now as he took the Cards on the road and picked up 2 tricky road wins to keep this thing humming. While NC State and Notre Dame aren’t world beaters those were two big time wins to keep themselves from falling down into any sort of danger zone. They are looking really good right now with just 5 games to play, and while they can’t be locked with just 4 Q1 wins the schedule is so weak thanks to this pathetic ACC that it’s hard to imagine they miss the dance. They have 4 of their last 5 at home and just 1 true test with Pitt coming in, although they are in a rough spot right now, they’ll still be desperate for that W. This week it’s just 1 home game against Florida St, one you have to win but if you’re not awake at the wheel you can certainly drop, just ask Wake Forest. They’re better than Wake though and I fully expect this train to keep on rolling in what is right up there with Mizzou for turnaround of the season. Pat Kelsey for COY, Louisville is back.
Teetering:
Wake Forest: 19-7 (11-4) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 57 (47) Q1(A): (1-5) NET: (58)
Wake got caught with their pants down this week as they dropped an inexplicable one at home to Florida St, in a game they lead by 16 with 8 minutes to play. It may have been the proverbial kick in the nuts they needed, as they traveled to SMU and played as good a game as they had all season, securing a massive Q1 win. Similar to Clemson last week, although on a much smaller scale, they ended up winning the week as that 2nd Q1 win was critical, and while they took a small hit with their first loss outside of Q1 I think the good ultimately outweighed the bad. Unfortunately though, if they just could’ve held on to that late 2nd half lead they would be in a much better position, but with just 5 games to go they would likely be heading to Dayton as it stands. They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, as 4-1 is very realistic, with a trip to Duke being the 1 likely loss there. If they finish 23-8 and 15-5 in the ACC I think they’ll be in , especially with how weak this year’s bubble is. Either way, a trip to NC State up next is a gotta have it type game, as they’ve won just 3 ACC games this year. Can’t get caught off guard again.
UNC: 15-11 (8-6) — Q1: (1-10) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 18 (4) Q1(A): (1-8) NET (47)
Thanks to the bubble being absolute dog doo doo this year we’re still talking about UNC at just 1-10 in Q1 as potential at-large contenders. Their 10th Q1 loss came this week in blowout fashion as they got dismantled by Clemson on the road, and while that’s not a bad loss for anyone it’s pretty clear the Tar Heels are just mid, as they absolutely cannot beat a good team. They did bounce back from that embarrassing loss to squeak by Syracuse in what amounted to a Q3 win, doing absolutely nothing for them. In spite of all of that pretty much everywhere you look they are going to be in the “First 4 Out”/”Next 4 out” conversations, pretty wild. What that means is if they can go on a run by winning their next 5 games they’ll setup a season finale with Duke in Chapel Hill that could be them playing for their tourney lives. They’d be 20-11 at that point, with a 7-10 Q1/2 record, and adding that Duke win would likely be just what they needed to slip their way into this year’s tourney. It’s amazing how bad the bubble situation is, but this is a real possibility right now, and while I doubt they can pull it off, someone has to take these final few at-large spots.
Outside Looking In:
Pittsburgh: 15-10 (6-8) — Q1: (1-8) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 52 (57) Q1(A): (1-3) NET: (51)
After yet another Q1 loss Pitt is pretty far out of this thing, but as we’ve said the bubble this year is incredibly weak so hope is somehow still alive. They bounced back from the loss @ SMU to beat Miami at home, which stopped a 4 game losing streak as well. They have what should be another easy home win with Syracuse on deck, but the game next weekend @ Notre Dame is the tricky must-win that could knock them out for good. If they can win that and move to 4-1 in Q2 though they’d still be hanging on, with a trip to Louisville their last meaningful chance on the 1st of March. They are sitting somewhere around the 12th-15th team out, right there with SMU, so winning out is essentially their only path, with some wins in the ACC tourney also going to be necessary. We’re still a long way from that though, as this week’s trip to South Bend is going to tell us a lot about Pitt’s chances at running the table and keeping themselves in this.
SMU: 19-6 (10-4) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (9-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 105 (258) Q1(A): (0-1) NET: (40)
With another blowout loss against a good team, this time Wake Forest at home (Q2) SMU is falling further and further out of contention. They still have 0 Q1 wins, but now they also have multiple losses outside of Q1, not to mention the brutal SOS numbers. Their saving grace will have to be this coming weekend when Clemson comes to Dallas, as that is pretty solidly a Q1 opportunity and a chance for them to truly put themselves in contention. They first have to go to Notre Dame, a team that is inconsistent but fully capable of beating them. A win in South Bend would push them to 6-2 in Q2, and following that up with a Q1 win would get them to 7-6 in Q1/2, which in this year’s bubble would likely be good enough to get them in. This is a major nut up or shut up week for SMU, as they simply aren’t going to get in without some more quality wins, and they’re running out of chances.
–Big Ten–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
UCLA: 19-7 (10-5) — Q1: (7-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 31 (92) Q1(A): (4-2) NET (23)
Finding a way to pull off a road win over Indiana was exactly what the Bruins needed as they are now completely back after a bit of a midseason dip in January. They’re 8-1 over their last 9, with the lone lost this past week @ Illinois in a tough battle, so I have much more confidence in this team than I did a month ago. They are on the doorstep of locking as I don’t see a team with 7 Q1 losses missing out on the dance but if they lose out it would be way too hairy for me to feel comfy, especially with bid stealers still to come. Give me one more win and we can lock this one up, and they have the perfect spot to do so with Minnesota coming to Pauley Pavillion, with another winnable home game after with Ohio St coming in. I fully expect a 2-0 week and locking them up, although even avoiding the bad loss to Minnesota would be enough for me, that’s how close they are to locking. So, most likely our last time speaking on the Bruins, credit to Cronin for getting his guys attention and turning this ship around as most have forgotten they lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 the end of December into January. Credit where credit is due.
Maryland: 20-6 (10-5) — Q1: (6-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 50 (328) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (14)
Maryland now joins UCLA on the doorstep of locking after a massive road win over Nebraska gave them their 6th Q1 win, and they cleaned the week up with a home drubbing of Iowa. They don’t have the level of top wins that the teams who are locked do just yet, and that’s why they find themselves on the 6-7 seed line even with the record that they have. They have just the 2 elite wins over Wisconsin/Illinois and that non-con SOS is horrendous so that is all keeping them down the seed list for the moment. They have just 2 Q1 chances remaining, with a home game vs Sparty next week being their best chance to make this an open and shut case. This week they only have 1 game at home vs USC, one they should win rather easily to continue their hot streak as they’re now 7-1 over their last 8 games. One could argue they’re the hottest team in the country, right up there with UCLA at least, so the continuation of that is going to keep them right on schedule.
Oregon: 18-8 (7-8) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 16 (62) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (32)
Alright we can all take a breath as the Ducks finally stopped the bleeding and ended their 5 game losing streak with 2 home wins this week to get themselves back on track. Granted it was Northwestern/Rutgers, but when you’ve lost 6 out of 7 you’re just happy with wins regardless of opponent. We were starting to wonder if they could be the complete collapse this year, but they did what they had to do to likely avoid that, but the hay isn’t fully in the barn just yet as they have a few more tests the rest of the way. Ultimately, their 4 Q1(A) wins, including 3 top-15 wins, are going to carry them through most likely, but their seeding has taken a major hit over the past few weeks. It’s not going to be easier this week as they hit the road again going to Iowa and Wisconsin. The latter is almost certainly a loss as the Badgers are playing incredible basketball, so if they can find a way to beat the Hawkeyes that will go a long way toward locking this one up. I might not get fully there with the Iowa win but they’ll be very close, as 7 Q1 wins is unlikely to miss the dance.
Illinois: 17-9 (9-7) — Q1: (7-7) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 15 (49) Q1(A): (3-4) NET (18)
We could be headed towards a danger zone with Illinois, and while the 7th Q1 win vs UCLA was massive they blew a lead to Michigan St at home and dropped one they really needed on Saturday. The metrics love them and they have those 7 wins, but 1 is barely holding on with Ohio St at 30th, and they finish with such a difficult stretch that a 1-4 finish is very realistic. They have 1 should be win with Iowa coming to Champaign, but for example this week they head to Wisconsin and then they play Duke in NYC in a random non-con game. That feels like an 0-2 week that would drop them to 17-11 and 7-9 in Q1. They would still be in at that point, but man it would be way closer to the cut line than people ever thought, as many had them as a flyer pick to win the Big 10 (not 5 star of course, we much more astutely predicted IU). At the end of the day this is a young team that has been thrown together after losing almost their entire roster, so you knew it would be tough. The way they make this comfortable, short of beating Duke which would obviously lock them up, is to beat Purdue at home to finish the season. That’s the path to not having to worry for Illini fans, beat Iowa and Purdue at home and the other 3 losses (Wisconsin/Duke/Michigan) won’t kill you. It’s a brutal schedule to end it, but even a 2-3 finish will be good enough.
Nebraska: 17-9 (7-8) — Q1: (6-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 24 (162) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (46)
Nebraska’s was on fire until Maryland came to town and dumped cold water on them, but impressively they bounced back and went to Northwestern and picked up a huge W. If you didn’t dig any deeper you’d think they played very well in that one, but they were down by as much as 20 until they locked in and clawed all the way back to win by 4. I’m assuming Hoiberg’s message was a frantic, desperate plea, as they could not afford to drop that one in Chicago. Coming back provided them their 6th Q1 win which separated them pretty solidly from the tru cut line, where a team like Ohio St went spiraling toward. Quietly Nebraska has themselves positioned in a place I didn’t think possible just a couple of weeks ago as they were losing 6 straight games, so credit to that team and Hoiberg for locking in and improving their play. They can realistically finish 3-2 the rest of the way, with home games vs Minnesota/Iowa as very winnable and then they also go to Penn St and host Michigan so winning one of those 2 would probably lock this in. Obviously going like 1-4 would make this thing tough to predict, but I feel like even just those 2 easy home games could be enough now that they are up to 6 Q1 wins.
Teetering:
Ohio St: 15-11 (7-8) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 6 (34) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (30)
I’ve been saying the Buckeyes needed to just win their home games and they’d be safe, and they did so to start the week by beating Washington. Unfortunately, they fell to Michigan at home Sunday and now are in a more hairy situation as we hit the homestretch. They have 3 of their last 5 on the road, with a trip to LA being 2 of those games with UCLA/USC. If they finish just 17-14 they will be just 4-11 in Q1 but also 5-3 in Q2, that will put them squarely in the crosshairs of the bubble, with their fate really hinging on how the rest of the bubble performs. If they can find a way to steal one road game, with a trip to Indiana also in there, then I would feel much more confident in them. The home games are Northwestern this week, and Nebraska later on, so those should both be wins, it’s about stealing a road game now that they lost to Michigan. I still think they are in as of now, but I’m not liking their chances if they finish the regular season just 4-11 in Q1. The next time we meet they should have at least beaten Northwestern to keep this thing on the tracks, with a loss to UCLA most likely on Sunday which will leave them in about the same spot next week.
Indiana: 15-11 (6-9) — Q1: (2-11) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 30 (165) Q1(A): (2-4) NET (57)
It was a wild week for the Hoosier but ultimately it was good enough to keep them alive, for now, as they picked up a massive win @ Michigan St only to come home and lose another close one to UCLA. It’s wild that a team that is just 2-11 in Q1 games is still alive, but that’s the 2025 bubble for you, and with still many chances at nabbing big wins left they are still right in the thick of this thing. That’s not considering they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games though, so it’s hard to have confidence in them, but when they’re at their best they’re good enough to beat Sparty in East Lansing, so you can’t fully give up on them just yet. They only play once this week with Purdue coming to Bloomington in the rematch for this rivalry, after IU took Purdue to the brink in Mackey Arena earlier this month. Despite all of the losses, and their coach announcing his retirement at the end of the season, they have a realistic chance to finish the season 4-1 and go dancing. Do I have fait that will happen? Not really, but they host Purdue/Penn St/Ohio St and then a road game @ Washington. Those are all winnable and they need them all, as I don’t think 18-13 would be enough, although they’d still be alive likely. They’ve shown us they aren’t just going to roll over and die, now we’ll see how much fight they really have as they try and save face down the stretch.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Kansas: 17-8 (8-6) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 14 (25) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (15)
I can only imagine what’s going through Bill Self’s mind as he tries to get this ultra talented team to stop losing games they shouldn’t. After winning a ho-hum game at Allen Fieldhouse vs Colorado they dropped yet another Big 12 game @ Utah, their 6th conference loss of the season after being the #1 team preseason. After last year’s 8 Big 12 losses, the most under Self, he loaded up on talent via the portal and was seemingly out for vengeance. It hasn’t gone to plan, and now the Jayhawks are playing as unispired as I’ve ever seen under Self, which has to be the most aggravating thing. He’s gone from winning with grinders like Perry Ellis and Frank Mason to trying to get some semblance of pride/effort out of guys like AJ Storr and Hunter Dickinson. And I know Hunter puts up numbers, but when you’re getting out-rebounded by 10 by Utah and your star 7-footer has just 6 rebounds while the other team has 16 offensive rebounds, something is very wrong. They are running out of time to right the ship, and while they have plenty of wins to be safely in the tourney, they’re not a top tier contender, and that’s a sad state for such a great program. And to top it all off they head to Provo next to face a hot BYU team. Good luck.
Teetering:
Baylor: 15-9 (8-6) — Q1: (5-8) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (0-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 4 (14) Q1(A): (2-8) NET (28)
As I said last week the loss to Houston was inevitable, but the game with WVU was going to be the real important one, and they found a way to get it done. It wasn’t without trial though, as the Mountaineers took them to OT, but ultimately Baylor picked up the W and stayed on course to end up around the 8-9 seed line. Of course there’s still time to improve their positioning, or worsen it, and this week they’ll have the chances to do both, with Arizona coming to Waco and then a trip to Colorado. This could be a wild swing of a week, as a 2-0 sweep would put them in fantastic position, with likely no need to sweat the rest of the way, but if they drop both games, which is entirely possible, then they would likely start sliding toward the last 4 byes territory. The 5 Q1 wins are going to likely keep them safe for a while, but with road trips to Cincy/TCU still on deck and having to host Houston I would not want to be losing to Colorado. Huge variety in outcome possible, but they can also stay right where they are by splitting, so who knows where they’ll be this time next week.
West Virginia: 15-10 (6-8) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 12 (59) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (44)
The Mountaineers continue to play a dangerous game, as we’ve noted over the past few weeks, as they continue to lose games while hanging on to 4 Q1(A) wins. Thankfully this year the bubble isn’t very strong, but they’ve now gone just 2-6 over their last 8 games, with losses at home to BYU and then @ Baylor this week continuing their slide. Again, they have 4 elite wins (3 over top-10 NET teams) something no bubble teams this year can compete with, so it feels like they can’t slide all the way out of this thing, but at what point do the losses become insurmountable? They aren’t there yet, and the schedule is going to soften up just a bit, with a home game with Cincy up next and then after a trip to Texas Tech they host TCU. They need to go 2-1 in that stretch, with a loss @ Tech not going to hurt them obviously. It will start to get very interesting if they can’t handle their business at home though, as at some point those elite wins just won’t be enough if they continue to lose. Let’s not forget Cincy is playing pretty good ball right now, so this thing could get a whole lot more interesting by the next time we meet.
BYU: 17-8 (8-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 59 (293) Q1(A): (0-4) NET (36)
What an absolutely gigantic week for BYU and their hopes for an at-large, as they went on the road and beat West Virginia to pick up a 2nd Q1 win and followed that up with a win over a white hot K-State team to go from just 5-8 in Q1/2 games to 7-8. That put them in the field for me and just about everyone else, with the consensus likely having them in Dayton or one of the last 4 byes best case, as they’re now 6-2 over their last 8 and starting to cement themselves as a tourney team. They have a wounded animal coming to Provo in the form of Kansas, but as we know that is often the most dangerous animal, so while it presents a huge opportunity they need to lock in. If they drop that one they then head to Arizona, so all the good they’ve done could get quickly undone if they drop both of these and fall to just 2-8 in Q1. Unlike West Virginia and Baylor they have zero elite wins, so getting a 3rd Q1 win in their last home Q1 opportunity feels ultra important. I’m not going to say it’s a must-win, as this bubble is horrendous, but it would go a long way to feeling confident BYU is going to be dancing.
Outside Looking In:
Cincinnati: 15-10 (5-9) — Q1: (1-9) Q2: (7-1) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 48 (272) Q1(A): (0-6) NET (45)
Cincy did what they had to do to stay on track this week, but their resumé took a hit, along with the rest of the Big 12, with the fall of UCF out to 75th in the NET. They are dangerously close to losing their lone Q1 win which would drop them to an ugly 0-9. That’s obviously not going to get it done, and I said last week their path was to beat Baylor at home later this year and steal a road game. They failed to win @ Iowa St, hard to ask for, but this week presents them with their best chance to get one, @ WVU. I don’t think they can get in without it, and while the weakness of the bubble may keep them alive, a win over the Mountaineers would make their case so much stronger. In theory UCF could crawl back into the top-75 and a potential win over Baylor could give them 2 Q1 wins, but I wouldn’t want to have to count on a UCF team that has lost 6 in a row. They need to take matters into their own hands and it starts with a win in Morgantown and then a home W over TCU. Do that and they might be in the field this time next week, a remarkable turnaround after just a couple of weeks ago they appeared to be down for the count.
TCU: 14-11 (7-7) — Q1: (2-8) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 30 (98) Q1(A): (1-6) NET (76)
TCU had a rough start to the year, and even at the end of January sat at just 10-10 as Jamie Dixon tried to mesh a new group of transfers and freshmen. They are led by senior guard Noah Reynolds and have completely turned a corner over the last 5 games, going 4-1 with the lone loss @ Iowa St. We always have some late chargers that come out of nowhere, and this year the Big 12 is providing them, and given the state of the bubble it’s easier than ever to go on a late season run and get in. While they haven’t made up for all the losses they took on to start the season, they have massive chances this week with Texas Tech coming to Fort Worth, as well as a trip to Cincy which both give them shots at Q1 wins. Right now they are hanging their hat on 2 road wins, Baylor/Arizona St, but a home win over Texas Tech would give them that marquee Q1(A) win that could catapult them right into the thick of the bubble conversations. They’re still a ways away, but with 4 of their last 6 being Q1 they are going to have the chances to work themselves into legitimate consideration.
Kansas St: 13-12 (7-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (2-4) Q3: (3-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 23 (180) Q1(A): (3-6) NET (73)
The winning streak marched on to begin the week, as they extended it to 6 in a row, including 4 Q1 wins as they took down Arizona at home. That streak was finally broken on Saturday night though as they got handled by BYU in Provo. That loss drops them to just 6-10 in Q1/2, and while they have 3 elite wins they are still going to need to add to this resumé to get themselves into the dance. Lucky for them the schedule lightens up going forward, as they go to Utah and then host Arizona St. Those of course aren’t easy games, both qualifying as Q2, but they are games you have to have when you’re trying to make up for what was a very poor start to the season. Those 2 wins would pull them to .500 in Q2 which would be huge as that 2-4 record is disgusting and cannot fly for an at-large team. They have done so well to claw themselves back into the conversation after not even being close to on the radar when they were just 7-11. It would be a shame for it to go down in flames with a loss this week, so here’s hoping they lock in and get 2 huge wins this week.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Creighton: 18-8 (11-4) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 33 (39) Q1(A): (2-4) NET (33)
Creighton’s 9 game winning streak came to a screeching halt as they not only lost at home to UConn but dropped a 2nd in a row @ St. John’s as well. Both of those games were hard fought and down to the wire, but ultimately it keeps them on the bubble and in somewhat of a pressure spot as they can’t afford to drop bad ones the rest of the way in order to stay on track. They have an easy finish to the season, and frankly probably feel fortunate to just have gotten out of New York with Kalkbrenner healthy. He went down hard in the 2nd half of that game and it looked bad, but he came back after just tweaking his ankle. They now get to return home and have some rest and then play Georgetown on Sunday. That’s just what the doctor ordered for a team that just lost back-to-back games and has a banged up star player. I think they rest up and get right in that matchup with the Hoyas, and with just 1 Q1 game left the resumé kind of is what it is right now, and it’s pretty solid so they should feel good but not lockable.
Teetering:
UConn: 17-8 (9-5) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 53 (66) Q1(A): (4-0) NET (35)
UConn has probably the most unique resumé on the watch, and that was furthered this week as they picked up a massive win @ Creighton and then lost @ Seton Hall. I thought 1-1 was the most likely scenario for the week, but man did I not think it would come in the way that it did. Ultimately it brought the Huskies to 4-0 in Q1(A) games, and dropped them to 3-2 in Q3, a bizarre resumé to say the least. It continues to be all about their uncanny ability to play to the level of their opponent seemingly every night. They certainly aren’t in any danger of missing the tourney as it stands, with those 4 elite wins carrying them, but they continue to limit how good of a seed they can get, with an 8-9 seed looking most likely even with all of those great wins. They play Villanova at home and then @ St. John’s this week, and while I’m going to say 1-1 is the likely outcome I refuse to predict which game they’ll win, as both will likely be close given their history. Regardless of what happens, the bubble is so bad they will have to take on a lot of water before they start to feel like they’re in trouble.
Outside Looking In:
Xavier: 16-10 (8-7) — Q1: (1-8) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 50 (127) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (54)
This week was just what the doctor ordered for Xavier, winning @ Providence and then at home vs DePaul. It didn’t do a ton for them but it did add a 6th Q2 win and more importantly they didn’t drop another one outside of Q1 and made their record a little prettier. They are still clinging to that win @ Marquette as their marquee win but as we’ve laid out in the past they are going to need to find one more at least as we go forward. This week presents 2 more can’t lose games, as they host Butler and then head to Seton Hall. Gotta have them both, as the Creighton home game is on deck after that, and dropping one outside of Q1/2 would be a death blow to an already subpar resumé. The macro view of this team is that they’re 7-3 in their last 10 games, clearly turning a corner and playing tourney quality ball, this year at least, and as long as they can handle their business this week they’ll be setup to win their way in with a win over Creighton, although not guaranteed.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Ole Miss: 19-7 (8-5) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 17 (81) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (25)
The Rebels took an unfortunate L this week at home to their rival Mississippi St, dropping them to 5-7 in Q1. That game followed a win @ S. Carolina, but the loss at home by 10 is pretty alarming, as they got out-rebounded by 12 and trailed the entire 2nd half. It was a disappointing result and one that kept them from getting locked, but it certainly doesn’t put them in any danger. The schedule doesn’t let up though, as is the reality for all of these SEC teams, as they head to Vandy this week in their lone game before we meet again. Drop that one and then they head to Auburn, with Tennessee and Florida both still to come as well. There’s a world where this Ole Miss team goes just 1-4 the rest of the way, and while I think that’ll still be enough it certainly isn’t a situation I’m comfortable locking just yet, as an 0-5 finish and a first round exit in the SEC tourney could make this quite the situation. So many ways it can go, but I would be getting a bit antsy as they head to Nashville.
Missouri: 19-6 (8-4) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 33 (201) Q1(A): (4-5) NET (16)
Mizzou continues to be the biggest surprise in the SEC as they’ve moved up to 15th in the NET after picking up a 4th Q1(A) win and an overall 5th Q1 win with their win @ Georgia. That win followed a home blowout of Oklahoma in what was a huge bounce back week after an 0-2 week last week. They are now in fantastic position, and really just a win or 2 away from locking this thing up. The reason for the timid approach to locking is they finish with 5 of their final 6 being Q1, so there’s still a world where they’re just 5-11 in Q1, and while that should still be good enough with this year’s crop of bubble teams it certainly isn’t sure enough to lock just yet. I’d like to see them get one more, and with Bama coming to Columbia this week they have the perfect opportunity to make this one an open and shut case. The trip to Arkansas after that is dangerous though, so if Bama bounces back from their Auburn loss and beats them, they could easily go 0-2 and be looking a bit shaky the next time we meet.
Mississippi St: 18-7 (6-6) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 10 (118) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (29)
This was an important week for Mississippi St, and while they failed to beat Florida at home they were able to go on the road and beat rival Ole Miss to complete the season sweep and add a 6th Q1 win. That helps to put them in a comfortable position as they look to finish up this brutal stretch of 8 straight Q1 games. They’ve gone 2-3 so far, with A&M coming to Starkville next followed by a trip to Oklahoma later in the week, with another road game @ Bama rounding it out. With those 2 road games on deck the home tilt with the Aggies feels very important, as stringing another 3 losses in a row would put them in a precarious position. They of course could win @ Oklahoma, who by no means have been playing great ball, but still taking care of business at home is the most ideal scenario. We’re holding off just to make sure they don’t completely collapse, as they’re just 4-6 in their last 10 games, not exactly an inspiring run. Overall, I expect to see the Bulldogs in March, just not going to guarantee it just yet. We’ll see how they fare this week.
Teetering:
Oklahoma: 16-9 (3-9) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 21 (136) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (52)
I’m not sure what’s going on with this Oklahoma program under Porter Moser but the late season collapse is becoming a problem. They started the season 13-0, with wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan who are all solid tourney teams. They’ve gone just 3-9 since SEC play started, with the most recent loss to LSU at HOME the most embarrassing of them all. They now are clinging to an at-large bid, thanks to those non-con victories, but with 6 straight Q1 games to come it is increasingly looking like the wheels are going to fall off of this thing. If you can’t beat LSU at home I’m not sure what you can do at this point, and they next have to go to Florida before they host Mississippi St. I’m not seeing a path to the tourney that doesn’t include the win over Mississippi St, as dropping that one would bring them to 6 straight losses (assuming an L @ Florida) and have leave them hosting UK and going to Mizzou on life support. So, I’m calling that one a must-win, as the loss to Florida feels inevitable, so if you see Oklahoma lose to State on Saturday you can bet the Sooners will be best case looking at Dayton, and potentially out of the field entirely. What a fall from grace.
Texas: 16-10 (5-8) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 19 (282) Q1(A): (2-7) NET (31)
We said last week they had to find a way to pull off 1 of their tough home games this week and they did just that, knocking off Kentucky on Saturday night after getting waxed by Bama earlier in the week. They had to do it without Kaluma, but freshman Tre Johnson was worth the price of admission as he dropped 32, and with the help of Tramon Mark’s 26 willed Texas to the W. That win gave them their 4th Q1 win and put them pretty confidently in the field as it stands right now, although they’re in that mix of Last 4 byes – Last 4 In so they can’t just mail it in there is still work to be done. They have just 1 game this week, @ South Carolina, one that you absolutely have to have but one that bubble teams like Texas can struggle to secure. Big picture I’m looking for a 3-2 finish for them to stay on the right side of things, as that would move them to 9-12 in Q1/2 which should be good enough this year to get in. That would allow for losses @ Arkansas/Miss St and then home wins over Georgia/Oklahoma in addition to the win over the Gamecocks. It can happen in another order of course but that’s the cleanest way for them to get it done, we’ll see if they can make it easy.
Vanderbilt: 17-8 (5-7) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 34 (322) Q1(A): (1-5) NET (41)
The key for the Commodores is to not panic after this week, as they played hard and while they lost 2 games it was to Auburn and Tennessee, nothing to hang your head about. The path to the tourney is still clear and ahead of them, as they still have 3 home games, 2 of which will be Q1. They get one of those this coming Saturday with Ole Miss coming to Nashville, and while they will likely be entering that game on a 3 game losing streak, it’s possible they go to Kentucky and upset the Wildcats. They almost did that to the Vols this past week so it’s not out of the question by any means, but expecting them to go into Rupp and win is not realistic. The goal for them should be to just win their home games the rest of the way, as that would get them to 4 Q1 wins and 10 Q1/2 wins overall. That should be enough to get them in, especially with no bad losses and likely at least a 2nd Q1(A) win. The path is there and very realistic, and it would be the 2nd most shocking result in the SEC this year as Mark Byington has done an unbelievable job here.
Arkansas: 15-10 (4-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 22 (149) Q1(A): (3-6) NET (42)
The Hogs are still fighting for their tournament lives, and while they’ve been playing much better basketball over the last couple of weeks they ultimately are still just 4-10 in Q1/2 games. That of course is bouyed a bit by the fact 3 of those wins are Q1(A), something the committee values highly, it’s still not good enough. This past week didn’t help that record, as they beat LSU (Q3) and then lost @ Texas A&M. The path remains the same as it has been, winning their home games and also beating S. Carolina at their place, which would put them 19-12 and double their Q1/2 wins to 8. That would be good enough by my estimation to have them in the field entering the SEC tourney. It starts this week, after a trip to Auburn that won’t be enjoyable, they get to host Mizzou. The Tigers are playing very good basketball but Arkansas simply has to have it. If they fall to just 4-12 in Q1/2 they would fall behind a lot of teams I would think. I am willing to call that game a must-win, and while it’s possible I suppose they claw their way in still with a loss to Mizzou I don’t like their odds. So, the playbook is simple, beat Mizzou on Saturday.
Georgia: 16-10 (4-9) — Q1: (2-10) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 25 (234) Q1(A): (1-8) NET (39)
Well the Dawgs are officially in a free fall as they’ve gone just 2-8 over their last 10 games and find themselves on the brink. I would argue they should be the first team out, others appear to have them in still, but either way they are the very definition of Teetering. This past week included a tough loss @ A&M, but the more frustrating one was at home to Mizzou as they were up 3 at the half and lost by 13. I understand that they have wins over St. John’s and Kentucky, but at this point I just don’t think they are good enough to be a tourney team. You could argue others would rack up this many losses if they had to continuously play top-20 teams, and that’s a good point, but most of their losses to top teams are by double figures. They are just too young and inexperienced, and I think that is going to keep them from going on a run. However, that’s just my opinion, and they have 1 more chance at home to prove me wrong. It won’t come this week though, as their lone game this week is @ Auburn. With that said I can’t imagine they are in a better position come next week.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
New Mexico: 21-4 (14-1) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-1) SOS: 90 (63) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (37)
New Mexico is now in a great spot as they added another massive win over Utah St on Sunday to complete the season sweep and move themselves to 11-2 in Q1/2 games. That’s uber impressive, and does more than enough to make up for the 2 very bad losses. The negative is they don’t have the elite wins that the power conference teams have, but the non-con win over UCLA is going to be what they point to as evidence they belong in conversations with those teams. That is what is keeping them down in the 8-9 seed range, but ultimately with all of those Q2 wins you can’t ignore it, as so many teams below them have .500 records in Q2, so it’s pretty obvious they belong below the Lobos even if the Q1 volume is lower. I think they’re in a safe position right now, but the Mountain West got hammered on seeding last year so I will not be locking anyone up for an at-large given those teams last year all had 6+ Q1 wins and still barely got in. This week they have another opportunity to add a notch in their belt with a trip to Boise St representing a 5th Q1 game. That would push them as close to locking as you can get in this conference for me.
Teetering:
Utah St: 21-4 (12-3) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 93 (106) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (38)
After the sweep by New Mexico the Aggies are now pretty solidly behind the Lobos and are sliding down more toward San Diego St. They have the win @ St. Mary’s that is their saving grace, but still with their best power 5 win being Iowa you could argue the resumé is worse than the Aztecs due to a lack of quality wins. That makes the home game vs those very Aztecs this weekend all the more compelling as they could sweep SDSU with a win there and give themselves yet another Q2 win. They only have 2 more Q1 chances with trips to Boise St and Colorado St left, and those are going to be critical as entering the conference tourney at just 3-3 in Q1 is not going to have them feeling all that great. At some point the rest of the Mountain West is going to start scheduling like San Diego St, but until then it’s going to be life on the bubble every year, even for the teams who are dominating league play. I think they’re good enough, especially this year with how down the bubble is, but they need this win vs San Diego St this weekend to further their cause.
San Diego St: 16-6 (10-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 63 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (50)
San Diego St got back on track this week, going 2-0 and adding another Q1/2 win over Boise St at home. This resumé is being carried by the non-con SOS which also features wins over Houston/Creighton, which are aging like fine wine. Those wins are better than any wins New Mexico or Utah St have, which helps them make up for the bad metrics and loss to UNLV. Overall they are now 7-5 in Q1/2 and still have 2 big time matchups with Utah St/UNM, giving them 2 more chances to add to that total. So long as they don’t pick up any additional bad losses I’m confident the Aztecs are going to be in the field, especially with how they scheduled in the non-con. This year’s bubble is just too bad to leave a team out with wins over Houston/Creighton, as many other mid-major schools will be in contention and certainly don’t have the wins they do. This week they get an easy dub with Fresno St at home and then head to Utah St in a massive clash. A win there is obviously huge, but a loss won’t sink their ship by any means. It’s all about limiting any damage the rest of the way and then beating New Mexico at home.
Outside Looking In:
Boise St: 16-8 (9-5) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-1) SOS: 86 (103) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (48)
Any other year the Broncos would simply be nowhere close to the bubble, but as I’ve repeatedly stated the bubble this year is horrendous and if you are looking at some projections Boise St is right in this thing. I honestly am not sure how, with 2 quality wins really over St. Mary’s (lowkey the Gaels are carrying the Mountain West right now) and Clemson that is enough to qualify you for the bubble in 2025. 4-7 in Q1/2 is usually laughable, but here we are with 4 more Q1/2 games on the schedule they could realistically push to 8-7 or 7-8 in those and be right in the mix. This week will be critical as they host New Mexico and then head to Nevada. A 2-0 week would absolutely push them up into somewhat realistic consideration, especially since they have those 2 wins over tournament teams, so at 6-7 they’d have an argument, especially if the power conference teams that are in the mix continue to blow every opportunity presented to them. I have my doubts on this one, but the path is there thanks to the schedule remaining and simply just not having other options.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Saint Mary’s: 22-4 (13-1) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 91 (84) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (20)
The Gaels continued their war path on the WCC as the still have a stranglehold on the regular season championship. They are simply just a good basketball team and should be heavily favored in all but 1 of their games the rest of the way, the rematch @ Gonzaga. That is going to be must watch TV, but it ultimately won’t knock them out of the field if they lose it, so we’re really just hoping to avoid taking on damage from bad losses the rest of the way. That being said it feels pretty solid, and while they could of course drop some that we don’t expect, that’s not really who they are, as they defend well and traditionally always tear through the bottom half of this conference. I would expect that to continue, and even if they lose @ Gonzaga they will remain well above the danger zone, so it’s all about avoiding the land mines as we close out the season.
Teetering:
Gonzaga: 18-7 (9-3) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 75 (28) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (10)
Gonzaga is just not what we’re used to seeing out of Mark Few and co. but they have 2 good wins over Baylor/San Diego St, who also happen to be down a peg this year from what they usually are. Those wins are good enough to keep them in the field, mostly thanks to the computers also loving them and having them in the top-10. In no world is this team top-10, but the computers say it so it must be true right? They’re 47th in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), so while they may look great to the metrics the results are not so great, and to me they’re barely in the field right now and should be feeling desperate for big time wins. This week they finally get their chance to improve their situation as they host St. Mary’s as they try and notch a 3rd Q1 win. They first head to Wazzu which would also give them a Q2 win, so they could wind up 7-7 in Q1/2 after this week and feel a whole lot better this time next week if they handle business. They also finish with 2 Q1 road games next week, so a lot can be done to put the Zags in a better spot over the next 2 weeks, so as we’ve said for a couple of weeks the season starts now for Gonzaga.
Outside Looking In:
San Fran: 20-7 (11-4) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (12-0) SOS: 93 (171) Q1(A): (0-2) NET (60)
Well this week went as scheduled for the Dons, losing at Gonzaga but bouncing back and beating San Diego pretty convincingly. I say as scheduled because I have laid out the path for them for a while, and it is still open to them, with a trip to Oregon St and then the massive one at home vs Gonzaga. They have just 1 game before that critical back-to-back to close the season, at home vs Pacific, so the opportunity almost certainly will be there for them still. If they are able to pick up those 2 wins they will move to 23-7 with a 5-7 record in Q1/2. It’s not a guarantee that they get in with that record, but with 2 Q1 wins they certainly would have a good argument, especially with how weak this year’s bubble is. They would be hoping the teams from the SEC like Georgia/Vandy/Arkansas all flounder, and bid stealers would be a disaster. For this week they just have to handle business against Pacific so they can focus their attention to next week, one of the biggest in recent program history.
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Memphis: 21-5 (11-2) — Q1: (5-2) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (7-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 72 (4) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (49)
Memphis gave themselves a ton of wiggle room thanks to playing the 5th strongest non-con schedule and taking full advantage of their opportunities. Unfortunately they fell asleep at the wheel this week and dropped a 3rd Q3 game @ Wichita St week. That was the thing they had to avoid, as their schedule is just land mine after land mine and they finally took some damage. They were flirting with a 5 seed, and now they’re spiraling toward a 6 or even 7, although I think that strong NCSOS is going to carry them further than people think. The wins over Michigan St/Clemson/Mizzou/Ole Miss/UConn are wildly impressive so I think they hold at a 6 for now but they really need to lock in. They are not really going to be challenged the rest of the way, as there isn’t a top-100 team on the schedule until a potential conference tourney rematch with North Texas. Penny has to get the message across that these games matter, and I can see that being difficult as it would be easy to feel like they proved themselves already.
Teetering:
Drake: 21-3 (11-3) — Q1: (2-0) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (9-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 201 (225) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (59)
That was a tough L to take for Drake as they lost to Bradley at home and now have 3 losses outside of Q1. Due to the bubble being horrific I’ve changed my tune a bit and I think Drake has a solid shot at an at-large, but they absolutely cannot take anymore losses. Drake fans also have to be massive Vandy/K-State fans, as those are the shining stars on the resumé. They need the Commodores to continue to pick up wins in the SEC to keep that win there, and they need to just keep on winning games in the MVC. If they win out it’ll be very interesting where they sit, but with how bad these teams are fighting for spots I just can’t see the justification for leaving a 4-loss Drake team out. Hopefully they just win the damn thing and we don’t have to mess with it, but either way any loss the rest of the way would be devastating.
Outside Looking In:
VCU: 19-5 (10-2) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (11-1) SOS: 151 (286) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (34)
VCU seems to be getting attention as a potential at-large team, and while they do have an overall 6-4 Q1/2 record after winning @ George Washington this week, I feel like having just 1 Q1 win is not enough. There are others that disagree though, and if they run the table the rest of the way they undoubtedly would be getting discussed. A source I like to reference for an objective look at this is HoopsHD, so shoutout him, and he has them as the 17th team out right now. That is a calculation that ended up top-10 last year. So, all the VCU fans out there, it’s not looking great, and it’s really due to the horrific non-con schedule and lack of Q1 wins. They have 0 Q1 opportunities left on the schedule, so I really don’t see how they could get in with just 1 Q1 win, but again, they’ll certainly get discussed. Last year it took 2 Q1 wins to get in, and with the way the committee treated teams with bad SOS numbers last year I just don’t see it. However, I am allowed to be wrong, and after that road win over Dayton it’s clear VCU is the team to beat, although George Mason is coming on strong. Just keep winning, that’s all they can do.
George Mason: 20-5 (12-1) — Q1: (1-2) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (8-1) SOS: 129 (177) Q1(A): (0-2) NET (63)
Just like the rest of these mid-major resumé’s it’s slim pickens as you look at this one, with their best win being @ Dayton which is barely qualifying as Q1. To their credit they did play both Duke and Marquette, but got blown out in both games so not a great thing to point to. They have 3 top-100 wins, again not great, but as I’ve said with the other mid-majors it would be nice to see them get their shot at one of these middling power conference teams in Dayton. The big matchup in the A10 is upcoming this Saturday when they travel to VCU. That would give them a 2nd Q1 win and a major edge over VCU resumé wise. A loss though would keep them pretty solidly out of it in my estimation, with zero chances left after that to pick up a quality win. It’s like the same story with each of these, but the lack of Q1 chances is going to be their undoing.
UC San Diego: 20-4 (12-2) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (0-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (12-1) SOS: 204 (218) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (43)
With their win over UC Irvine, to enact their revenge, they now have a better argument in my opinion than the Anteaters. They have a massive win @ Utah St that UC Irvine can’t compete with, and while they have fewer Q2 wins they have a chance to add one later when they travel to Cal St Northridge in late February. I still think either way one of these teams is going to have to win the conference tourney to get in, but they at least still deserve to be in the conversation, especially with that Q1(A) win. Again, as I’ll continue to say with all of these low major teams, they don’t do themselves any favors with the scheduling, as they surely could try and schedule some top teams from the mid-major conferences or something at least. To the Tritons credit they did at least have JMU and Toledo on the schedule, they just happened to have down seasons, but still it’s always going to be about major wins and if you want to have a chance at an at-large it’s going to be tough to compete with SEC/Big 10 teams who are playing 15 or more Q1 games to your 2 or 3. Even McNeese was able to land 5 Q1/2 games, which at least gave them more of a fighting chance, even though they failed to cash in. Either way, the Tritons need to win out and hope the rest of the bubble flounders.
UC Irvine: 20-4 (12-2) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (9-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 177 (204) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (62)
The Anteaters deserve to be in the conversation given how horrible the power conference bubble teams have been this year. It’s not because they have an amazing resumé by any means but they’ve been a consistently solid team this year and are 4-2 in Q1/2 games, so that’s something. I probably don’t think they should get in at this point, but with more carnage from these other bubble teams and 6 more regular season wins from Irvine and they’d at least have an argument. I don’t think the reps on the committee from the power conferences would let this happen, but I know fans are going to be clamoring to at least see the loser of the Big West title game, assuming it’s Irvine/San Diego get an opportunity. I don’t disagree personally but in sticking with my effort to predict what the committee will do I’m not confident. They do only have the win @ UC San Diego so it’s a tough sell with only 2 top-100 wins.
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