*Most recent update HERE*

We are now 2 weeks away from the end of the regular season and just a few days away from March 1st, so it’s officially nut cutting time for every team on the bubble. It’s this time of year that Q1 chances are the most valuable currency in the sport and we are setting ourselves up for some massive matchups over the next 2 weeks between these bubble teams. We’ve narrowed the field just a bit as teams like K-State and Pitt have seen their paths close up, while the likes of Arkansas/Indiana have ascended thanks to big time Q1 dubs. The macro narrative of the mid-majors getting in over the struggling power conference teams is also still alive and well, as teams like Drake/VCU have set themselves up to have quite the argument if they fail to win their conference tourney. The good news about a weak bubble is that a big win from a team on the fringe could catapult them onto the right side of the things so every game carries a ton of weight. We’re diving deep into all of this and more this week, as we have very clear paths for each team as we hit the homestretch.

For those new here, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.

“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.

“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.

“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists. 

“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 55 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/24. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Jump to Conference:

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 22

Locks: 23

Bids Left: 23

Bubble: 34

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–ACC–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Louisville: 21-6 (14-2) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (7-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 57 (30) Q1(A): (1-3) NET: (24)

After yet another win for the Cards this week, at home vs Florida St, do I really think they could collapse and not make the tourney? 99% no, but there’s that 1% that’s still out there, and the remaining schedule is land mine after land mine that would blow giant holes in this ship. They have just the 4 Q1 wins right now, with just 1 over a top-25 team, which for a clean resumé like this is good, but start dropping bad ones and suddenly it doesn’t look so great against teams like Arkansas/Oklahoma/Baylor who all have that many wins or more and are teetering with no bad losses. I want to reiterate, I fully expect Louisville to continue playing really good basketball, and maybe even win out to finish the regular season 18-2 in the ACC, which is unbelievable. The reason they aren’t locked is because this is not about what I predict will happen (I’m a sucky gambler), it’s about what could happen, and the locks do not have a scenario where they could miss the tourney. Louisville still does, but this week it can be extinguished if they just take care of business. They go to Virginia Tech and then host a desperate Pitt team. Win both and we’re done, maybe even with just the Pitt win.

Teetering: 

Wake Forest: 19-8 (11-5) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 59 (50) Q1(A): (2-5) NET: (63)

If we know one thing about this Wake program over the last couple of years it’s that they love to lose games down the stretch of the season they can’t afford to lose. Last week it was at home to Florida St, this week @ NC State. That’s now 2 non-Q1 losses which damages what was a super clean resumé, their strongest selling point as they have just 2 Q1 wins. This time last year they were 18-9 and proceeded to lose to sub-100 ranked Notre Dame and Georgia Tech to ultimately knock themselves out of tourney contention. The cycle may in fact continue. Of course, with this season’s weak bubble, they are very much still in the mix, most likely headed to Dayton as of today. It makes it much more dramatic though as they have just 1 meaningful game left prior to the ACC tourney, but it’s @ Duke. I expect a 3-1 finish that would leave them just 2-7 in Q1 which would have them directly on the cut line. They get to host Virginia and Notre Dame this week, absolute must-wins as they can’t afford to take on another Q3 loss. If they had 4 or 5 Q1 wins sure, but at this point they can’t take on any more water. We’ll see if they can stop shooting themselves in the foot.

UNC: 17-11 (10-6) — Q1: (1-10) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 33 (5) Q1(A): (0-8) NET (45)

The Tar Heels did what they had to do this week to stay in the conversation, beating up on NC State and Virginia at home in what amounted to 2 Q3/4 wins. It did nothing for the resumé but it kept them alive, which is still crazy to say given they are just 1-10 in Q1. At the end of the day it’s all going to come down to beating Duke to cap off the season, as they absolutely have to have that to pass these teams with multiple Q1 wins. Frankly, I would not want my season to hinge on beating this year’s Duke team but that’s the reality right now for UNC. They are first going to have to keep handling their business, with their toughest test remaining up next as they head to Florida St. It’s a Q2 game, and we just saw Clemson go to Tallahassee and beat them by nearly 30, so if you think you’re a tourney team it’s time to act like it. They host Miami after which is as easy a W as there is in the Power 5, so all urgency should be toward beating Florida St.

Outside Looking In:

SMU: 20-7 (11-5) — Q1: (0-5) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (10-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 94 (260) Q1(A): (0-1) NET: (39)

It’s the same old story with SMU, as they had yet another opportunity to beat a good team and got beat by double digits. Clemson came to Dallas and did what every other good team has done, and now we’re looking at a 20 win team that’s 11-5 in the ACC, top-40 in the NET, and has 0 Q1 wins. In my opinion not winning a single Q1 game is an at-large disqualifier, but it seems others are still heavily considering the Mustangs, including the esteemed Joe Lunardi who had them in his “First 4 Out” after Saturday’s games. I have them about the 15th team out, behind nearly every mid-major as well, as most of them have either at least 1 Q1 win or even more Q2 wins (VCU). Again, if I haven’t made it clear enough, I don’t think SMU belongs anywhere near the tourney as it stands, and with just Q2 road games as their best chances remaining I don’t see myself changing that stance. It would be unprecedented for a team with 0 Q1 wins to get in the field and even with a weak bubble there are plenty of teams who can at least say they’ve beaten a good team. The ACC tourney is still remaining of course, and they’ll need to win out prior to that to stay in the hunt.

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–Big Ten–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Illinois: 17-11 (9-8) — Q1: (6-9) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 7 (20) Q1(A): (3-7) NET (23)

Last week I laid out how difficult the finish to the season was going to be for the Illini, and after that 40 point blowout loss to Duke this team appears to be on the ropes. That haymaker followed a 21-point drubbing @ Wisconsin, so it’s safe to say Illinois isn’t playing its best basketball right now. HC Brad Underwood has been outspoken about the illness outbreak they’ve endured, and that certainly could have something to do with this 3-game losing streak, but regardless it’s ugly right now. The good news is they finish the season with 2 of 3 at home, and as we laid out last week a 2-3 finish to the season would be enough to keep them comfortably in the field. 2 of those 3 losses are in the bag, so now we’re needing a 2-1 finish that would rack up home wins over Iowa and Purdue. A trip to Ann Arbor is smashed in between, but so long as they’re 19-12 and 10-10 in the Big 10 I won’t be worried about them making the dance, especially with a 7th Q1 win. Anything short of that and it could get dicey, although the weakness on the bubble would likely keep them in, but I would not want that kind of predicament. Just win your home games and it’s all going to be okay.

Teetering: 

Nebraska: 17-10 (7-9) — Q1: (5-8) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 30 (180) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (54)

In true bubble team fashion the Cornhuskers got blown out @ Penn St this week to keep themselves down here in weeds of the bubble. They are still 9-9 in Q1/2 which is far better than the true bubble teams right now, but with a couple of tricky ones still left on the schedule it would have been nice to have that win over a Penn St team that had just 4 league wins prior. The good news for Nebraska is they have a massive opportunity to bounce back and really separate themselves again from those that are in the bubble crosshairs as they host Michigan tonight. A win over the Wolverines would give them their 6th Q1 overall and would put them more in the Illinois territory on the 8-9 seed line. That would be pretty comfortable with just 3 games left, especially since they host Minnesota later in the week which should also be a win. Losing to Michigan wouldn’t put them in danger but it would drop them further into the muck, and other teams are starting to rack up more and more Q1 wins. This is their last shot at a Q1 at home, with a trip to Ohio St next week their only other shot. Sitting at 5-10 in Q1 is not where you want to be, so Monday night is critical for the Huskers to feel comfortable come Selection Sunday.

Indiana:  16-11 (7-9) — Q1: (4-11) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 25 (156) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (56)

With their at-large hopes on life support the Hoosiers came up with one of their biggest wins of the season taking down rival Purdue at home to give themselves a realistic chance to get in the dance. They came out in the 2nd half of that game down 12 and played like their lives depended on it, and credit to them for dominating in a game they couldn’t afford to lose. They are now up to 4 Q1 wins, and with 0 bad losses and the 2 Q1(A) wins have a legitimate tourney resumé now. They are in the field as of today if it were up to me, with a trip to Dayton likely in store. The good news for them is the season isn’t over and they have more chances to improve their stock over the next 2 weeks. They next host Penn St who they absolutely have to beat giving them a 4th Q2 win, and that’s followed by a trip to Washington who is last place in the Big 10. In other words, this needs to be a 2-0 week which would put them pretty solidly in by improving to a 9-11 record in Q1/2. After all the missed expectations they still have a chance to at least get in the dance, but it would be pretty on par for a Woodson team to have a letdown after this big win, so the hay certainly isn’t in the barn yet.

Ohio St:  15-13 (7-10) — Q1: (5-9) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 11 (38) Q1(A): (3-7) NET (34)

It’s red alert time in Columbus right now as the Buckeyes have lost 3 straight games, 2 at home and are now right on the cut line. This week it was an embarrassing blowout at the hands of Northwestern, at home, in what might be the worst loss of the week and they then went to UCLA and lost by 8. They still have those 3 elite wins over Kentucky/Maryland/Purdue but with 4 losses in their last 5 games it’s hard to have confidence they can turn this around. They have 3 left, as they’re staying in LA to play USC in their lone game this week. I’m not sure that 17-14 is going to be good enough, so I think they need to finish 3-0 to find themselves in the field entering the Big 10 tourney. There’s not really much to say right now for this group, you gotta just win. At one point a few weeks ago it was just win your home games, now that’s out the window and every game is critical. A loss @ USC and they might be cooked, so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Buckeyes.

Outside Looking In: N/A

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–Big 12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Kansas: 18-9 (9-7) — Q1: (5-8) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 18 (22) Q1(A): (3-6) NET (20)

I think this week’s 34 point loss @ BYU was officially rock bottom for this Kansas team, as we had been highlighting their struggles for the last few weeks, but that was the worst performance I’ve seen from a Kansas team maybe in my entire life. They looked uninterested, like they didn’t even care they were getting their asses handed to them. Whatever happened in the days following clearly got their attention though, and while beating Oklahoma St this year is no prize (Q3 win) doing so by 32 while finally dominating the glass like they should (+20 rebounds) gives you some hope a fire was lit by Self. We are going to find out over the next 2 weeks if they really did get the message, as they finish the season with 3 straight games against 3 of the heavyweights in the Big 12. They first have to go to Colorado who just beat Baylor, where they can try and fix their road woes (just 3-7 on the road). Then the gauntlet begins, as they host Texas Tech before going to Houston and then hosting Arizona to finish the season. That’s the stretch that will tell us if they can fulfill their potential or if it’s going to be more of the same: a lifeless team full of unmet expectations.

Teetering:

BYU: 19-8 (10-6) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 50 (300) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (29)

If you thought last week was big for the Cougars it pales in comparison to what they were able to accomplish this week. They not only annihilated Kansas for their 3rd Q1 win, they also went on the road and beat Arizona to notch their 4th such win and first of the Q1(A) variety. It wasn’t without drama though, as they trailed by 1 with time ticking down and drew a controversial foul call (pathetically bad call) that allowed them to knock down 2 FT’s and win. Of course, they deserve credit for getting to that position on the road against such a good team, and ultimately came away with what could be the win that gets them in as that was the signature W they were missing. While the NCSOS is horrific I think they’ve done plenty to make up for it at this point and are firmly in the field, which I think is widely agreed upon. They’re now 8-2 in their last 10 games as Kevin Young has finally pushed the right buttons in an impressive year 1 as a college HC. Up next they go to Arizona St and then host WVU, so two easier games on paper than they’ve had but not ones you can just take for granted.

Baylor: 15-11 (8-8) — Q1: (5-9) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 4 (13) Q1(A): (1-9) NET (30)

The disaster scenario I laid out for Baylor last week is exactly what transpired, as they not only lost at home to Arizona but they followed that up with a 2 point loss @ Colorado. Jayden Nunn did miss the Colorado game, bringing them up to 2 missing guys who have started 20 games. While Nunn should be back next game, Ojianwuna won’t be coming back, and without him they’re just 1-3 and struggling with a lack of depth inside. 3 of their final 4 games are very tough, and it’s tough to imagine a team getting in at just 16-14 this year, even with a bad bubble. They have to go to Cincy/TCU and host Houston. They need to find a way to grab one of those along with the home game vs Oklahoma St, because if they don’t they would fall to just 9-14 in Q1/2. While the volume of wins is still impressive, the losses would have them right around the cut line. It may still be enough to get in, but finishing the season just 4-8 does not bode well. Up next is the trip to Cincy, one with massive bubble implications. They then return home for the easy one vs Oklahoma St, so this week has to be at least a 1-1 split.

West Virginia: 16-11 (7-9) — Q1: (5-10) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 11 (60) Q1(A): (4-6) NET (48)

Thanks to a monster game from rising SO Amani Hansberry, the Mountaineers kept this train on the tracks with a win at home over Cincy that they desperately needed. They still dropped to just 3-7 over their last 10 games with the loss to Texas Tech on Saturday, but as we’ve laid out those 4 Q1(A) wins are keeping them afloat. The game plan remains the same to close out the season, as they have to at least win their home games to stay in good position. They host TCU/UCF with road trips to BYU/Utah, a relatively easy stretch all things considered. If they can go 3-1 it’s a wrap, but even 2-2 with the home wins would likely be enough, but anything short of that will leave them in a very peculiar situation. Let us not forget they have wins over Arizona/Iowa St/Gonzaga/Kansas, a group of wins no bubble team can hang with. They have to just avoid implosion and those wins should keep them in the field, even if it’s one of the last few in. Tuesday night’s game vs TCU therefore is massive for them, as well as TCU, so for those into watching games with massive bubble implications that’s one of the biggest of the week.

Outside Looking In:

Cincinnati: 16-11 (6-10) — Q1: (1-10) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 49 (272) Q1(A): (0-5) NET (44)

Cincy is barely clinging on to its at-large life right now, and they blew a massive chance to improve their situation when they lost @ WVU last week. They were able to bounce back and beat TCU at home, but with so few opportunities remaining that was a tough 10th Q1 loss to take. They’re now just 1-10 in Q1, with 0 Q1(A) victories, a tough sell. The NCSOS is also very bad, so there’s really not a ton going here for the Bearcats, but as I’ve said repeatedly the bubble is very weak, and with a chance to knock off Baylor at home this week they are still alive. The issue they have is Baylor is 30th right now, so they may actually bump them down if they beat them and it’ll wind up a Q2 win, although that could change as we go forward. It’s a steep hill to climb however you slice it, but best case they have wins over BYU/Baylor that both count as Q1 heading into the Big 12 tourney. They’ll also likely add a road loss to Houston on Saturday, but that’s okay, they just need to finish 3-1 to stay alive.

TCU: 15-12 (8-8) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 21 (89) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (74)

The win of the week on the bubble might have to go to TCU, as they were able to knock off a top-10 Texas Tech team to pick up their signature win of the season. They of course followed that up with a loss @ Cincy, but still the week overall was a success as they nabbed their 2nd Q1(A) win and moved themselves up the bubble a good amount. They are still just 7-12 in Q1/2 though, so there is still work to be done as they have to make up for what was a very rough start to the season. So, we have to keep our eyes forward with the Frogs as they need to keep building, and they have a chance to do so as they head to Morgantown on Tuesday. Win that and they might be in the field, while a loss will put pressure on them to close the regular season 3-0. They host UCF on Saturday, so worse case they go 1-1 and still are firmly on the outside looking in. They still host Baylor and go to Colorado, so a 3-1 finish would leave them 9-13 in Q1/2 which would have them firmly in the conversation. 3-1 is the bare minimum though, as it might actually take a 4-0 finish to the season to get them over the hump. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Frogs.

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–Big East–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Creighton: 19-8 (12-4) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 35 (46) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (35)

Creighton bounced back just like they needed to on Sunday after dropping 2 games last week. Georgetown isn’t good but it always feels good to get a double digit conference win, and seeing Kalkbrenner healthy after last weeks tweak of the ankle was icing on the cake. I’m not too worried about this resumé but they of course still need to handle their business down the stretch as bad losses could quickly send them into the danger zone. They have just 1 Q1 game left and it’s on Saturday @ Xavier, so that’s going to be a tough one but one they certainly could win to lock this thing up. They will need to beat DePaul at home, which they surely will, and then a win on the road will make this an open and shut case. Losing to Xavier though would drop them below .500 in Q1, although still likely safe it casts a tiny amount of doubt. They still go to Seton Hall who knocked off UConn last week, so nothing is guaranteed, but they are as close as you can get.

Teetering:

UConn: 18-9 (10-6) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 55 (66) Q1(A): (4-1) NET (37)

Dan Hurley and Co. are still stumbling and bumbling through this season, as they were on the ropes in the game vs Villanova before storming back from 14 down to win late, and then got smoked by St. John’s. The resumé is still not overly strong, with just a 9-8 record in Q1/2, but that 4-1 Q1(A) record is what is carrying them at this point. They don’t sound overly impressive but still road wins over Texas, Marquette and Creighton plus that neutral win over the Zags are what they are hanging their hat on, and it’s plenty this year to have them safely on that 8/9 seed line. The rest of the schedule presents a great opportunity to get hot, as they have 3 home games and only travel to a down Providence. I fully expect a 4-0 finish to the season, although hosting Marquette certainly isn’t a guaranteed win, that is one that they should win if anyone is going to have any sort of expectations of them going on a run in March. This week is just a home game vs Georgetown and then that trip to Providence, so I’m looking for a 2-0 week out of the Huskies.

Outside Looking In:

Xavier: 18-10 (10-7) — Q1: (1-9) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 50 (127) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (53)

A couple of weeks ago I laid out the path for Xavier, which was to win their last 7 games. It sounded like asking a lot, but after 2 more wins this past week they’re 4-0 to start that stretch, with the biggest of them all coming this week as they host Creighton. Overall they are now 9-3 over their last 12 games, so they’re playing good basketball and if I had to purely put teams in based on eye test they would be in my field. The issue is they played a rough non-con and the tough games they did play they lost. They’ve gotten better since though, as the win @ Marquette indicates, so at this point it’s just about volume as 1 Q1 win doesn’t stack up well against the other bubble teams. The Creighton win unfortunately would only be Q2 since it’s at home, and the road trip to Butler right now is just outside of Q1 as well. So, at the end of the day if they win out they would be 8-10 in Q1/2, with only 1 Q1 win, which I’m starting to doubt would be enough to get them in prior to the Big East tourney. If they can do some work there though they might have a shot, but it’s starting to look bleak for Xavier. Either way they still have to win out, so all eyes on that matchup with Creighton on Saturday.

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–SEC–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Mississippi St: 19-8 (7-7) — Q1: (7-7) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 12 (117) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (28)

Mississippi St has found a way to navigate this 8 game stretch of Q1 games and keep themselves in a good position, and while they’ve gone just 3-4 it has gotten them to 7 Q1 wins and on the doorstep of locking. The latest win over Texas A&M gave them that 7th Q1 win, and while the loss @ Oklahoma was tough it still leaves them .500 in Q1. With a trip to Bama left to finish off this stretch I imagine they drop to 3-5, but they get a reprieve by hosting LSU after that one. That’s the one they need to win for me to feel confident in locking, as they host Texas and then go to Arkansas to finish things off. Lose at home to LSU and I can’t have any confidence the last 2 games are going to go well, and then 7-11 in the SEC is on the table. That could leave them in trouble, but those 7 Q1 wins would likely still be plenty to get them in, but it would be too close for comfort for sure. I don’t expect worse case scenario to play out here, and I won’t be worried at all if they go to Bama and get smoked. It’s all about winning at home to close things out, and if they can get to 20 wins and 8 in the SEC it’s a wrap.

Ole Miss: 19-8 (8-6) — Q1: (5-8) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 16 (77) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (26)

Well, that’s now back-to-back losses for Ole Miss and they’re looking down the barrel of a gun with the 4 game stretch they have upcoming. They were down by as many as 19 against Vandy on Saturday but actually battled back to take a lead with 5 minutes left. That was short lived though as Vandy took back control and ultimately won by 5. That leaves the Rebels with just 5 Q1 wins and a trip to Auburn up next, with games against Florida/Tennessee still around the corner. The one saving grace for them right now is the Oklahoma home game on Saturday this week, as they absolutely have to have that one. They are looking at being 5-11 in Q1 if they lose to Auburn/Tennessee/Florida down the stretch, so moving to 6-0 in Q2 SHOULD be enough to keep them in the field. Losing to the Sooners and making it 6 straight losses to finish the regular season would absolutely put them down in the bubble muck after being as high as a 5 seed. I just want to see them beat Oklahoma, and if they truly want to feel comfy they could beat the Vols at home next week, but at bare minimum they need to beat the Sooners on Saturday.

Teetering:

Oklahoma: 17-10 (4-10) — Q1: (5-8) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 15 (141) Q1(A): (4-6) NET (51)

With their backs against the wall the Sooners were able to claw out a massive Q1 win over Mississippi St on Saturday to keep themselves afloat. As predicted they lost to Florida earlier in the week to extend their losing streak to 5 games, so that game on Saturday meant everything for their chances to punch a ticket to the dance. The job is nowhere close to done though as they still have 4 more Q1 games to close out the season so that was just step 1. They have UK/Mizzou at home and trips to Ole Miss/Texas on the docket still, and I would guess they need to go at least 2-2 to feel comfy entering the SEC tourney. That would get them to 7-10 in Q1 which should be good enough with this year’s bubble, but anything short of that is going to put them squarely in the Last 4 in/First 4 out discussions yet again. So, for any Sooners fans out there you’re looking for 2 more wins, and 1 at bare minimum as finishing 5-12 in Q1 doesn’t feel like enough, especially when that would include a backdrop of 9 losses out of 10 to close out the season. That is an NIT team, no way around it. Win your home games and there’s no doubt. It starts Wednesday night as UK comes to Norman.

Texas: 16-11 (5-9) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 22 (290) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (38)

That was a brutal L to take for the Longhorns on Saturday as they got waxed in South Carolina giving the Gamecocks their 1st SEC win. Tre Johnson was fantastic again with 29 points but the rest of the team was horrific, especially defensively. Now the pressure is ramped up as they are just 7-11 in Q1/2 and have just 2 Q1 chances left, both on the road. They do host Georgia/Oklahoma and those are absolute must-wins, but they might also have to find a way to pick up a road win. If they only win their home games to close it out they’ll be 4-10 in Q1 and 5-3 in Q2, which will make it very close and possibly leave them on the outside looking in. It would all depend on what the rest of the bubble has done at that point, but that’s not a place you want to be in. This week they head to Arkansas, in a matchup that has massive bubble implications, before hosting Georgia. At bare minimum they need to split the week, as an 0-2 week would knock them well out of the field. Their backs are officially against the wall, so it’s time this supremely talented team locks in or they’ll be NIT bound.

Vanderbilt: 18-9 (6-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 27 (321) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (43)

Vandy is following the script right now, as they lost their 3rd straight game as expected but bounced back with a massive win vs Ole Miss to add their 3rd Q1 win. There’s a lot of noise right now about Pat Kelsey at Louisville and Dusty May at Michigan, and it’s well deserved, but you can definitely argue what Mark Byington has done here is far more impressive, as Vandy doesn’t have the history of success those other programs do. Overall they had to just win their home games the rest of the way and they’re off to a great start, but the work is not done yet. The 3 Q1 wins are still low in total, and the NCSOS is as bad as it gets on the bubble, so they had much ground to make up entering the SEC. They have another tough week upcoming with a trip to A&M up next and then they host a very good Mizzou team. Again, they just have to win at home, and that Mizzou win would add a 4th Q1 win and put them in a great spot. Failing to secure that one will put them in a precarious position, so that game on Saturday night is critical for the Commodores as it’s the last Q1 chance at home they’ll have this year.

Arkansas: 16-11 (5-9) — Q1: (4-9) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 14 (176) Q1(A): (4-7) NET (40)

Every game is critical when you’re fighting for your life on the bubble, but that win over Mizzou felt like the most important game of the weekend for any bubble team. The Hogs had been playing better and better but it felt like they were falling just short, so for that locker room to pick up a giant Q1 win at home felt like some validation for those guys and above all it nudged them likely back into the field, although it’s razor thin. They have to keep it rolling this week as they have the chance to clean up the worst part of their resumé, that 1-2 Q2 record. They first host Texas and then head to South Carolina, 2 testy games but ones that could flip that to a 3-2 record in Q2 and overall push them to 7-11 in Q1/2. It’s a weird resumé right now, because the win volume is the lowest of any team close to consideration, but the 4 Q1(A) wins are by far the most impressive set of wins any team near the cut line can bring to the table. That’s why these 2 Q2 games are so important, because it takes away that argument against you and helps to solidify the fact that it’s not just a couple games where you looked good. You have to be able to stack up against the competition and a 2-0 week is going to help them do just that.

Georgia: 16-11 (4-10) — Q1: (2-11) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 20 (244) Q1(A): (2-9) NET (41)

The slide continues, as expected, as they lost @ Auburn to now make it losses in 9 of the last 11 for the Dawgs. While they fought hard and kept it closer than most expected, it amounts to an 11th Q1 loss as the situation for Georgia is looking extremely bleak. They need to at least go 3-1 the rest of the way to stay alive, but 4-0 might actually be what it takes to get them in before the SEC tourney. They host Florida this week, a game they haven’t proven to be good enough to win but you can’t replicate desperation, so if they can play with their hair on fire and catch Florida napping they could pull it off. They’ll hope they can, because they head to Texas after that, and an 0-2 week would knock them out of at-large consideration. No matter how you slice it they have to find a way to win one of these Q1 games this week at least, as they’re the last Q1 chances of the season and 2-13 is not going to be good enough. There’s not much left to say, they’re on life support and have to try and beat a top-5 team to stay alive. Good luck.

Outside Looking In: N/A

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–Mountain West–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

New Mexico: 21-5 (14-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-1) SOS: 79 (58) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (42)

The Lobos got waxed @ Boise St in their lone game since we last met, and while that dropped them to 3-2 in Q1 they still are in perfectly fine shape as it stands. It was a bit unsettling to see them get beat so easily, although they made it look a little better by trimming it from 19 to a final of an 8 point spread. While they didn’t capitalize on the chance to make this an open and shut case, a 14-2 Mountain West team isn’t going to ever be too nervous. They have another tough road test this week as they head to a tough San Diego St team who is more desperate for a win, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re just 3-3 in Q1 next week. A win though and we can lock them up, as that would push them to 12-3 in Q1/2. After that game the schedule is very soft, with only a trip to Nevada offering any sort of challenge before the Mountain West tourney. A 3-1 finish would keep them comfortably in still, and frankly losing twice probably wouldn’t knock them out either, although it would push them pretty close to Dayton so finishing strong is important to stay around that 9 seed line.

Utah St: 23-4 (14-3) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (7-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 93 (96) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (33)

This was a big week for Utah St to get back on track after losing to New Mexico yet again, so to see them get a big win over San Diego St was a sigh of relief. They are in a good position, with the road win @ St. Mary’s being the highlight and a 10-4 Q1/2 record being impressive enough this year even with a low volume of Q1 wins. They do have to close the season with a bit of a tough stretch as they have to play both Boise St and Colorado St on the road, both Q1 chances, so they could look much worse if they go 0-2 this week. Finding a way to pick one of those road wins up is the path to locking in my opinion, as I don’t see a team this year that’s 4-2 in Q1 missing out on the dance. I mean we’re talking about VCU/UC Irvine with just 1 Q1 win having shots at at-large spots so they should be fine. Falling to 3-3 at least makes it nerve wracking, although I would still anticipate them getting in, however close it may end up being. Big week for the Aggies’ comfortability on Selection Sunday.

Teetering:

San Diego St: 17-7 (11-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 60 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (49)

The road loss to Utah St was a missed opportunity but ultimately shouldn’t be any cause for concern. As I said last week this resumé is being carried by the non-con SOS which happens to feature massive W’s over Houston/Creighton. Those wins are better than any wins New Mexico or Utah St have, which helps them make up for the bad metrics and loss to UNLV. It also helps them compete with these bubble teams from the power conferences as they can come to the table and say we beat Houston, top that. Not many can, so if they can just finish the season strong, namely beating New Mexico this week, then I think they’ll be in comfortably as the committee should look favorably on that top-10 NCSOS and those elite wins over strong tourney teams. A 4-0 finish to the season would leave them 9-6 in Q1/2 and make them a lock to be in the tourney, anything less likely leaves them somewhat in doubt, although at 8-7 they likely would still be in. Either way, just beat New Mexico and make it simple for everyone.

Outside Looking In:

Boise St: 18-8 (11-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 83 (107) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (46)

Well the Boise late season run we discussed last week is off and running as they picked up massive wins over New Mexico (Q2) and @ Nevada (Q1) last week. That pushed them from just 4 Q1/2 wins to 6 to get them much closer to the cut line than they were a week ago. This train could keep on humming, as reeling off 6 in a row was the path we suggested and they’re 2 for 2 so far. The next challenge is hosting Utah St, a Q2 game but one they must have, as those 2 Q3 losses are a black stain that they need every win possible to make up for. After that are 2 easy games against Fresno and Air Force before they finish off the season hosting Colorado St. If they get to 22-8 by winning 6 straight games they would sit at 8-6 in Q1/2 games and would have a very interesting argument to make. Could that St. Mary’s win be enough? Would the Q3 losses keep them below the power conference teams who have 10+ losses but mostly/all in Q1? I would think yes to the latter, especially with how the committee treated the Mountain West last year, but regardless they would be right in the mix and that’s all you can ask for considering where they were in late January at just 13-7.

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–WCC–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Gonzaga: 21-8 (12-4) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS: 81 (27) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (10)

Well the Zags continue to disappoint on the court as they lost another Q1 chance, this time at home to St. Mary’s. The Gaels didn’t allow the Zags to lead from start to finish, maintaining control throughout. Somehow, is spite of everything we’ve seen, Gonzaga has convinced the computers they are a unanimous top-15 team. Never mind their best win is over a now 30th ranked Baylor team…the Zags are just the latest shining example of the limitations of the computer rankings, in my humble opinion. Because they beat Pepperdine and Portland by 45 and St. Mary’s only beat them by 25 we’re going to value the Zags higher, even though in 2 matchups the Gaels won both. Make it make sense. I understand there are complexities to the metrics beyond that oversimplification, but at some point we need to start weighing how you perform against top competition a little higher. I also understand Gonzaga’s losses are mostly close and at the wire, but is there not a measurable skillset to winning close games? I digress, but I needed to get that out somewhere, and the metrics do seem to matter to seeding and they’re keeping Gonzaga afloat right now so it is relevant. To finish the season the Zags have 2 road Q1 games, so they can still make this a much easier sell, and prove the metrics right, by beating to sub-50 ranked teams (Santa Clara/San Fran) on the road to get to 4 Q1 wins. Anything less than that and they’ll be still firmly on the bubble entering the WCC tourney as right now they’re just 6-8 in Q1/2 games.

Outside Looking In:

San Fran: 21-7 (12-4) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (12-0) SOS: 102 (182) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (61)

We’ve finally reached the week where the Dons’ season will be decided, as they get a Q2 road game and then a massive Q1 game vs Gonzaga to finish the regular season. They have to win both of those games, and frankly I’m still not sold that will be enough at just 5-7 in Q1/2, but it gives them a fighting chance entering the WCC tourney. They would be able to say they beat 2 top-20 NET teams (SMC/Zags) and then would have a Q1(A) win per the NET with that Gonzaga win. It would at least put them ahead of the other mid-majors who are fighting for spots, as they certainly can’t tout that level of win, and they don’t have the Q3 losses that many of them are carrying around either. The volume isn’t going to be there to compete with the power conference teams, but if teams like Indiana/UNC/Xavier/Cincy continue to miss out on their chances they may be able to squeak in there. It’s a very narrow path, that needs some help from others, but I do think it’s still possible. They have to go 2-0 this week though, no questions asked.

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–Others–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Memphis: 22-5 (12-2) — Q1: (6-2) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (8-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 73 (3) Q1(A): (3-1) NET (49)

I wanted to lock Memphis in this week but the aggregate at Bracket Matrix has them lower than I do, so we’re going to hold on to them even though they have a fantastic resumé right now. I think folks are discounting what it means for a team from a mid-major conference to schedule a top-5 non-con schedule and then go out and perform the way Memphis did. I understand it’s the volume over efficiency argument, but to go out and get wins over teams from the Big 10 (Michigan St), SEC (Ole Miss/Mizzou), Big East (UConn) and ACC (Clemson) is insanely impressive. I know they’ve lost a couple of stinkers but I think the committee is going to overlook those given the level of wins they racked up in the non-conference. I mean people have them below St. Mary’s right now, and while I love the Gaels they don’t have anywhere near that level of wins. They’re the opposite of Gonzaga in the fact that they play with their food and don’t annihilate bad teams so the metrics don’t love them, but wins are wins in March and they have proven they can beat good teams. That’s my argument for Memphis being a 5 or 6 seed instead the 8 they’re projected right now. We’ll see what happens but so long as they don’t pick up another bad loss or 2 I think they’re sitting pretty.

Teetering:

Drake: 23-3 (15-3) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (10-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 195 (246) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (58)

Drake bounced back this week after taking that bad loss last week, picking up 2 wins including a Q2 win @ Northern Iowa in OT. That win was massive as it pushed them to 5-1 in Q1/2, and while K-State falling off and dropping to a Q2 win hurts they still are in the best position in this group of mid-majors thanks to 2 wins over power conference teams. They have 2 easy games to close out the regular season so they should finish up 25-3 and have a very impressive resumé all things considered. Obviously they would like to have those Q3 losses back, and more opportunities to pick up quality wins, but given the schedule and difficulty of winning consistently they have nothing to hang their heads about. I for one just hope they win the MVC tourney so we don’t have to worry about it, but if they do lose it’s going to be very interesting to see what the committee does with a resumé that includes just 1 Q1 win and a NCSOS near 250. Historically that doesn’t bode well, but with this year’s weak bubble I do think it’s possible. Have to finish strong though.

Outside Looking In:

VCU: 21-5 (12-2) — Q1: (0-1) Q2: (7-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (11-1) SOS: 151 (286) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (31)

VCU had as good a week as they could’ve asked for as they throttled UMass and then knocked off George Mason to re-take the lead in the A-10. They’ve now ripped off 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 13, so they’re clearly playing very good basketball, this resumé is just so weak. I don’t see how the committee would put in a team with 0 Q1 wins, especially considering overall their best win is over 62nd ranked Colorado St. I have them where I have them because other prognosticators disagree, including the “esteemed” Joe Lunardi who has them a part of his First 4 Out PRIOR to the George Mason win. I have them on the outside looking in, and while the committee could make a hard pivot and give teams more credit for Q2 wins than they’ve historically done, that would also bode well for other bubble teams like Cincy/Xavier who also happen to have a Q1 win on to their name. Just like Drake I hope VCU makes it easy and just wins the A-10 tourney, but I genuinely don’t think a team with 0 top-50 wins is going to get in the dance on resumé alone. I reserve the right to be wrong however.

UC San Diego: 22-4 (14-2) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (12-1) SOS: 210 (207) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (36)

UC San Diego has separated themselves from UC Irvine, mostly due to the Anteaters still losing conference games. They now have the more legit chance to get an at-large if they’re able to win out as they have the Utah St win that is Q1(A) and fewer bad losses as well. The key is going to be that Q2 win over CS Northridge this week to give them a 2nd Q2 win, and while I still don’t think it would be enough it’ll at least be enough to be firmly in the conversation at 4-2 in Q1/2. The volume is super low, but they can at least come to the table with an elite win as per the quadrant system, something these other mid-majors can’t say. The SOS numbers are not good, but hey they’re an out of nowhere team from the Big West it’s tough to expect them to be scheduling like Dayton or Memphis. I would argue they are right there with VCU given that big win, and maybe you value the Q2 wins a lot more than Q3 for VCU in comparison but I think a tourney team should be winning those games regardless. Give me the team that has proven they can beat another tourney team, and that’s the Tritons. Hopefully they just win the conference tourney though so it’s nothing we have to worry about.