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1.) Purdue (#1)

This is going to be one of the best team’s in the country right from the jump, with so much returning talent paired with obvious upgrades in areas of weakness, it’s as much a slam dunk as you can have. The real question is whether the additions of Cluff and Jacobsen can elevate this group on the defensive end to the level that justifies a #1 ranking. Last year they were 358th in block percentage, 332nd in 2 point shooting % allowed and 176th in defensive rebounding. The needs were obvious, and Jacobsen coming back from injury to provide them with rim protection, and hopefully some rebounding help, will be a critical factor for them getting back to the Final 4 and competing for the national title. Cluff is important as well because of his rebounding ability, but he’s not the shot blocker or the perimeter shooter that Jacobsen has shown to be. Both have their strengths, but it’s obvious going from Furst/TKR to Jacobsen/Cluff/TKR is an upgrage. Smith/TKR are going to do their thing offensively, and Israeli guard Omer Mayer has been turning heads all summer. He looks far more developed than your average FR coming into college ball, as he has the ability to create and score for himself as well as setup up teammates in a way that Purdue simply did not have outside of Braden Smith last year. That should take some pressure off of Smith and will put defenses in even more of a bind, elevating what was already a top-10 offensive team. It’s going to be beautiful to watch, but that 53rd ranking on the other end is going to be where my focus is. Can they protect the paint and finish possessions with rebounds? If so, I see no reason the Purdue Boilermakers won’t be your 2026 National Champs.

2.) UCLA (#9)

Last year for Mick Cronin and UCLA was a return to normalcy after a brutal 2024. Cronin bought into the transfer portal and completely revamped his roster which helped the Bruins get back into the tourney after a sub .500 season. Now we’re looking at a top-25 team that lost a couple starters and role players but went out and got replacements that should be better. I’m betting on Dent running the show and being one of the best guards in the Big 10. I’m betting on the front court duo of Dailey/Bilodeau once again being productive and with their shooting ability allowing them to spread things out so Dent can go to work. They lost 3 guards in Andrews/Mack/Stefanovic who all shot below 33% from 3 and replaced them with two guys who shot 40% or better last year. Better shooting, a better playmaker at PG and a more clear vision of who they will be means they should come out of the gates looking better than last year’s group. Cronin will not let them be bad defensively, so it all comes down to how they gel on the other end, and having a lead guard as good as Dent should go a long way to making that go smoothly. Another smaller weakness was on the boards, and adding Jamerson and Booker should help give them some versatility inside as they could play bigger if they need help on the glass. This has all the making of another Sweet 16 team for Cronin, albeit one that might not have the ceiling of title contender, it still should be a very good year for the Bruins that should see them right in the thick of things in the Big 10.

3.) Illinois (#16)

The major key to this Illini group contending nationally is going to be the European transfers Mihailo Petrovic and David Mirkovic. Petrovic is a classic European PG, a maestro in ball screen action where he can score it or find open teammates thanks to fantastic court vision. He should start right alongside Boswell and lead this offensive attack. As the perfect compliment to a PG that likes to operate in the ball screen Mirkovic is a stretch 4 that can pick and pop or roll and be effective. He’s not a great athlete but looks to be a more skilled version of returning big Humrichous. Combine them with 5 key returning pieces and things looks bright. However, with all of the positive outlook for the Illini offensively, it’s the other end of the floor that I worry could hold them back. They lost versatile defenders in Tre White and Will Riley, and frankly just got a lot less athletic with who came in to replace them. Could they be solid? Yes, especially with the Ivisic brothers inside to protect the paint. However, if you’re somewhere around 60th defensively, where they’ve averaged the last 2 seasons, you have to be absolutely elite on the other end if you want to accomplish what they do. The starting 5 and beyond make for a very dangerous team to slow down, but I just see them losing too many games giving up 80-90 points, especially against the top teams. There’s also a world where the European transfers struggle a bit and they fall lower than this projection, but given what we’ve seen in college ball over the past couple of seasons I don’t doubt their offensive ability at this level. I think somewhere around a 4-5 seed is very fair for this team, with the chance that they get hot in March and go on a run a la 2023 when they found their way to the Elite 8 despite being 80th defensively. Another solid season, but do Illini fans really think THIS is the roster to get them to the next level? I don’t buy it.

4.) Oregon (#19)

Dana Altman continues to churn out solid teams despite not having the resources you’d expect from a school with as much money as Oregon has. The incoming class just jumps off the page, for mostly the wrong reasons. We’re used to Oregon’s brand and Altman’s coaching bringing in top level talent, but right now Altman is relying on developing guys and trying to hit on undervalued transfers. Part of that development involves what will be a two headed monster with 2 sure fire All-Conference guys in Bittle and Shelstad coming back, along with a couple of breakout candidates in Evans and Phillips. Pair that returning talent with smart additions like Simpkins and Stewart and you can see how in spite of all I said I still have hope. I don’t see this group winning the Big 10 by any means, but I do think they could develop into a very dangerous 4-5 seed that could bust into the Sweet 16 and be a tough out. The 3 spot could be the weakness, but they brought in options to compete as Ukranian Kobzystyi, Devon Pryor or Dez Lindsay will battle for minutes there. Either way with Simpkins joining Shelstad and having Bittle anchoring them in the middle they’ll have a solid unit, plus Evans continuing to grow and Stewart in there as well I have no worries about production. Just continue to play top-25 defense and I think they’re very similar to a year ago. Not overly spectacular in any one area but solid all around and capable of beating anyone.

5.) Michigan (#21)

In some places I’ve seen this Michigan team projected as high as a top-5 team nationally, and I’m not quite getting it. They lost both members of what was probably the best frontcourt in the country in Goldin and Wolf. Yaxel Lendeborg should be really good, but he certainly is going to need help replacing that production, and Mara and Morez Johnson aren’t exactly dominant forces. I do like Cadeau coming in to replace Donaldson, but best case that’s a 1 to 1 swap in my opinion, and potentially a drop off as Cadeau is a worse outside shooter, so what’s elevating them to top-10 from a 5 seed last year? I’m not seeing it, and with no real solutions to their outside shooting woes (205th last year) they will lean on FR Trey McKenney or returning guys like Gayle and Burnett to pick up the scoring load. I don’t think they’re going to get worse, but the idea they vaulted into a top-10 team makes me feel like I’m missing something. I would have them in the category of should be solid and make the dance, but not a threat to go on a deep run or win the Big 10. Others clearly disagree, but short of McKenney having a Jace Richardson like breakout or Yaxel dominating to the point of All-American level production (Has just been named Pre-season All-American…), I don’t see them having the firepower to be a threat to win the conference or compete with the top teams nationally. Dusty May has done a fantastic job so far, but this is not the roster to get him to higher highs than he experienced last year.

6.) Ohio St (#24)

Jake Diebler’s first full season leading the Buckeyes didn’t go exactly according to plan, as they entered the season with hopes to make the tourney at the very least and failed to do so, despite reaching as high as 21 in the AP poll. There were some injuries, some transfers didn’t hit (shoutout Aaron Bradshaw) and they ultimately flamed out finishing just 4-7 down the stretch. The good news is the core of Thornton, Royal and Mobley coming back keeps the hope for success very much alive, and Diebler hit the portal again, this time bringing in some more proven production in the frontcourt. That’s why I like this group so much and have them in my pre-season top-25. The scoring punch is there with that returning core, but inside is where the struggles were a year ago as they were sub-200th in both OREB and DREB. Ojianwuna, Noel, Tilly and FR Bynum will provide them size and strength inside that they were missing last year, which should help clean up the glass and in turn help improve that 50th ranking defensively. I want to be clear this is establishing expectations, and while the talent on the roster can indicate a particular result, we have to see Diebler prove he can mesh this group together and get the results. Baseline should be making the tourney, but if everything goes right they should be a dangerous out come March thanks to that returning trio.

7.) Washington

Year 1 under Danny Sprinkle was about as bad as he could’ve envisioned, winning just 4 Big Ten games and enduring two separate 6 game losing streaks. Naturally, he has completely revamped this roster, bringing in far more proven talent, led by Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates from USC. Those two leading the charge instantly gives them offensive firepower and proven production they didn’t have going into last year. Combine those guys with high volume mid-major scorers and other big time recruits looking for more PT and all of a sudden you have a rotation to get excited about. The thing we know about these rebuilds is they are extremely volatile in terms of results, with even proven coaches like Musselman struggling to find success, but elsewhere we saw signs it’s possible, like at Louisville and Michigan. What I know about Sprinkle is he’s a damn good ball coach, getting Montana St to back-to-back tourney’s before taking Utah St to the tourney in his lone season there. He tried to bring his guys with him to the Big 10 and it fell flat. Now he has far more talent to be able to compete at this level, and given that I expect them to take a major step forward. They have 4 guards that can all score the rock in Claude, Yates, Peterson and Diallo. Ognacevic was an absolute beast at Lipscomb and then you have promising recruits like Sommerville, Tucker and Nitu who all have potential to be very good players. Bottom line, I love this roster, I love this coach and that combo makes me believe they can go from last place to tourney team, that’s how quickly things can change in today’s environment.

8.) Wisconsin

Wisconsin had a fantastic year last year thanks to the breakout by John Tonje and a strong cast of veterans around him. They played a regular 9 man rotation and all but 3 of them are gone heading into this year. Blackwell and Winter are the obvious leaders now heading into this season, but there’s a lot to question in terms of how the lost production will be replaced beyond them. Obviously, the transfer group is going to have to be the answer, but to what extent that comes to fruition is where I have some doubts. Nick Boyd and Andrew Rohde are fine replacements, but it cannot be understated how good Tonje was last year. Maybe Blackwell can take it to another level, and maybe Winter will be able to up his game to help replace the hole left by Crowl, but then we have to see Rapp/Gray or Lithuanian Bieliauskas successfully fill the other frontcourt void. I’m not saying the Badgers are going to fall off of a cliff, but I find it hard to believe they can be as good as they were a year ago with all that they lost and what has come in to replace it. Maybe there’s a guy like Tonje on the roster that is ready to breakout that I just don’t see coming, but on the surface I see an 8/9 seed that is solid but not good enough to compete with the upper echelon. This is a program under Gard that hasn’t gotten out of the first weekend since 2017, and since Bo Ryan’s exit after the 2015 title game run is just 7-7 in the dance. More is expected, I can tell you that, but can they find better? Probably not, so until then Badger fans have to hope Gard can find the right combination to bring March success back to this program. I fear this is not the year for that, yet again.

9.) Michigan St

Tom Izzo just keeps on doing it, even with all the allegations of the game passing him by or being over the hill, he turns in a year like last year where they go 17-3 in the Big Ten and get to the Elite 8 after being outside the top-30 in most pre-season rankings (ex. 35th KenPom). That was in large part to being an absolutely suffocating team defensively and the breakout of Jase Richardson. He is gone now though, along with other important guards Akins and Holloman who transferred out. The frontcourt should still be the strength with Kohler/Cooper back at the 5 and Carr manning the 4 spot. What happens in the backcourt is the mystery here and why I have them so low. I do expect Fears to take a step forward at the point in year 2, but having to rely on mid-major transfer Trey Fort, unproven 3rd year man Kur Teng and the two FR at the other spots make it difficult to project. They were a bad outside shooting team last year and lost their best shooters. Not great. If they stay a top-10 defense they will still be in the top half of the league, but I just can’t predict a ton of success offensively given all they lost and what they brought in to replace it. Maybe one of the FR once again breakout and surprise me, but I’m not counting on it. Izzo is the best of the old school coaches we have left, and it’s a joy to watch him do his thing, but i’m not sure he has the top end talent to compete for back-to-back Big Ten titles. They still could get in the tourney and then anything is possible with Izzo, but I see the ceiling as back in the 7-10 range and struggling to score all year long.

10.) Indiana

It is once again a whole new era in Bloomington as the program continues to chase the success of the ever distant Bob Knight glory days. They have made the tourney just 2 of the last 9 seasons since parting ways with Tom Crean, who committed the great crime of reaching the Sweet 16 three times and winning 2 Big Ten titles, neither of which has been done since his firing, but I digress. It will be up to Darian DeVries to lead this program back to the heights this fanbase demands, and he is faced with a mountain to climb in year 1 as he’s had to completely rebuild the roster with nobody left from last year. He brings his son Tucker, who is a stud, and a ton of proven mid-major talent, most notably Lamar Wilkerson who averaged over 20 ppg and shot an absurd 44% from 3 on high volume. There is no doubt he was able to accumulate some nice pieces, but man these rebuilds are so tough to hit on and nearly impossible to accurately predict. Last year the best jobs were Dusty May (Michigan) and Pat Kelsey (Louisville) who both made the dance and were top-3 in their league. It’s tough sledding, but there is hope, especially at a program with history, and when you look at the talent profile here it’s enough to be competitive and relevant come March. Anything less than that should be a bit concerning, and anything more you would have to give major props to DeVries. A success here would be finding their way into the dance in year 1, but even if they miss out I would expect as we get into February they are at the very least a bubble team with a fighting chance.

11.) USC

The Muss Buss stalled out hard last year as they seemed to be gaining some traction sitting at 13-8 fresh off of an upset of Michigan St entering February. They finished just 2-8 and now the roster has completely imploded, leaving Muss to have to try and completely reload yet again in year 2 at USC. He has been able to rebuild programs and rosters in the past, getting to the dance in year 2 at both of his previous stops in Nevada and Arkansas. I don’t see that happening this year. I think the roster he has put together is solid, certainly not awful, but he had more proven guys last year at the power conference level. The front court looks very average, and they will be relying on 2 mid-major guards as their primary playmakers. I’m not saying those guys absolutely can’t play at the Big Ten level, but it’s never a given. Baker-Mazara and Rodney Rice give them 2 proven shot makers but you need either the system or individual playmakers to get those guys open looks, and I don’t predict either. They will need to play fast and turn up the defensive pressure for this to work, something Muss has successfully done in the past, particularly at Arkansas. That’s where I have some hope, as he may have traded in some on paper talent for guys who fit what he wants to do a little better. Get after people defensively and get out and run. Best case that’s what they do and come February they are a bubble team and fighting for a tourney spot down the stretch. Worse case we’re in this exact same position this time next year with Muss still searching for answers.

12.) Iowa

Over the years I have been an outspoken voice urging Fran McCaffery to just once, one time, get his team to play defense. He never did, and I was critical. Despite that they routinely got hype, even rose as high as a 2 seed in the tourney, and yet after 15 long years they never made it out of the first weekend in March. Iowa fans may appreciate that 15 years simply because they became relevant, but at some point you have to expect steps forward, and they never came. They finally decided to part way and will turn to an unproven but very highly thought of HC in Ben McCollum. I think anyone reading this knows his story, which tells you despite his mere 1 season as a division 1 coach he arrives in Iowa City with all the ability to take this program to another level. Interestingly, he is going to try and do it in year 1 with many of his guys from his year at Drake, led by star guard Bennett Stirtz and in total 5 of their regular 8 man rotation. We saw this go poorly last year with Sprinkle at Washington though…He did bring in a couple of transfers to fill some gaps, including Folgueiras who should start and be a major player. Do I believe in their ability to play a Virginia-esque, grind it out style and beat the bottom dwellers in this conference? Yes, thanks to McCollum’s coaching. However, I do not think they have the top end talent to survive this Big 10 gauntlet and make it to the end of February and be a factor for the dance. Best case they’re a bubble team, but more realistically they struggle against the top half due to a lack of top end talent. Long term I expect great things, just have to be patient.

13.) Maryland

Another complete rebuild here with Maryland as Buzz Williams takes over another wounded animal of a program. The Buzz way is well documented, as he likes to come in to a promising but down and out program and build them back up, only to leave once he establishes some success and future expectations. He spent 5 years at VA Tech and 6 at A&M, only to leave after his best season at each stop. I’m not sure if that’s good news or bad, given he has been successful everywhere he’s been. It’s kind of like dating a super hot serial cheater. You’re going to have a ton of fun while it lasts but you know it’s going to end in a dirty feeling. Short term gain for long term pain. Sorry Terps fans, personally I’d want a guy to be all in on my program, and while I love Buzz he has admitted and proven he’s not that guy, as he enjoys the process of rehabbing more than trying to meet lofty expectations. But hey, what a ride it could be. Oh and about this year specifically…some talent for sure, especially in the front court with Payne, Saunders and Washington, but the backcourt of Watts and Rice leaves much to be desired. Maybe the FR will pop and they could be fighting to be a bubble team, but if tradition holds year 1 will not result in a punched ticket for Buzz and Co. That comes later, and boy could it be sweet, but whatever it is prepare for it to be ripped from your grasp in just a few short years.

14.) Northwestern

There probably isn’t a single player in the Big 10 with more weight on his shoulders than Nick Martinelli with Northwestern. He is one of the better scorers coming back in this conference, but what surrounds him is going to be the major concern all season long. Guys like Windham and Clayton showed promise down the stretch last season, and frankly they started to build some momentum with Barnhizer injured. Much of that core is back, but there is a major hole at the 5 as well as in the backcourt with Berry exiting. The transfers will try and fill the void, but I certainly am worried about the 5 spot with only Page and FR who can man that position. I think we’re looking at a pesky team here with the Wildcats who will likely knock off a couple of teams they shouldn’t at home thanks to some heroic efforts by Martinelli. There’s an outside chance guys take a step forward and these transfers come in and pop and we see this group on the bubble and fighting for a ticket to the dance. Ultimately, I don’t think there will be enough inside or enough scoring help for that to happen, but they’ll be feisty.

15.) Nebraska

Nebraska sat 17-9 and in prime position to make back-to-back NCAA tourneys for the first time since the 90’s in mid-February last year. They then lost 5 straight to end the season and miss the Big 10 tourney. That axed them from the field and marked the end of what was a decent run with Brice Williams leading the show. They now will have to flip the page and find some more talent as Fred Hoiberg continues to try and level up this program. Looking at what he was able to bring in, I’m not confident this is the year. It’s unfortunate the era that we are in right now, but it’s clear Nebraska is putting all of their resources in to the football program, so Hoiberg is playing with one arm tied behind his back. It’s hard to fault him, but the talent level here is just not going to cut it in this league. They will be well coached and play hard, but ultimately Rienk Mast, Essegian, Sandfort and some mid-major transfers just won’t be able to compete with the top half of the league. For Hoiberg and Nebraska hoops fans sake I hope the upcoming rev share era will funnel more funds to this program, because when they’re rolling the arena is a great environment.

16.) Minnesota

The Ben Johnson experiment is officially over as the alum failed to turn in a top-75 team in his four years with his Gophers. Unfortunately, that means the merry-go-round continues as once again a slew of mid-major transfers are coming in to play under Niko Medved, who took Colorado St to the dance 3 of the last 4 years. Medved clearly is a much more proven coach compared to Ben Johnson, who they hired as a first time HC, but he has his work cut out for him trying revive this program. Based on the on paper talent, I have very few expectations for the Gophers, but it would be fun to see this program get going again because The Barn can be electric when they’re rolling. I just don’t see it for 2025-26, and I’m sure you don’t either.

17.) Rutgers

Last year was undoubtedly a failure for Steve Pikiell as he brought in 2 elite talents who were top draft picks in the NBA, plus plenty of capable guys around them, and they finished below .500. Now, you can come up with whatever excuses you want, but other HC’s and other programs have found ways to win at a high level with FR leading the show. He didn’t get them to buy in, and maybe no coach would have, but ultimately what it means is they’ve now gone below .500 in back-to-back seasons after getting to the tourney the 2 years prior. Pikiell has a long enough leash at this point since he took the program from being a laughing stock to being perennially in the bubble mix. This year will not reach those highs again though, and may hit a new low that we haven’t seen since the early days of this tenure. I expect them to bounce back eventually, and they definitely need this reset to get back to the staunch defense they were known for. He brought in some good recruits so if he can hold this incoming class together I have no doubts they’ll get back in the next year or two.

18.) Penn St

If you just look at the records over the last 2 years you would think the Mike Rhoades experiment has not gone well, but under the surface he has made strides, turning in a top-60 team that did battle most nights. They just couldn’t win a close game down the stretch, losing 8 Big 10 games by single digits and now have almost completely turned over their roster. The lone returning major piece is Freddie Dillione who will be expected to take on a bigger role, but ultimately it’s hard to see how they don’t take a big step backwards with all that they lost. I do think Rhoades is a good coach, but similar to Hoiberg at Nebraska he is fighting an uphill battle getting fractional resources compared to the rest of the league as his school focuses entirely on football. Maybe he goes full euro ball and those guys hit big but even then I can’t see that being enough to vault them into bubble territory. Rough times at State Penn.