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1.) Houston (#2)

Well the runner-ups from a year ago are poised to not miss a beat this year as a good chunk of last year’s group is back along with a trio of promising FR who are looking to come in and make an immediate impact. We all know who Houston is under Kelvin Sampson at this point, so we know how they’ll play, the question is going to be how good these FR really are and how quickly they adapt and conform to this play style. At this point I trust Sampson to bring guys in who fit his mold, so I don’t question whether they will play hard and be good defensively. The question with Sampson coached teams is how the other end of the floor is going to look. They lost Roberts and Cryer who were major contributers, especially as playmakers, so the onus will now be on guys like Sharp, and even more so Uzan, to step up as playmakers for others. Uzan was that oftentimes, but he did struggle with foul trouble at times so he’ll need to stay on the floor and run the show this year. It will be interesting to see which of the FR emerge, with Cenac obviously the leading candidate to fill the void inside, but Harwell and Flemings are certainly going to push for PT and will make Houston very deep. Here’s what I know for sure, they’re going to be insanely tough, a great rebounding team and they have the talent to be the best team in the country. I have them 2 just because there are a few more questions offensively than I have for Purdue (defensively) but it’s truly a toss-up. Everyone questioned how Houston would adapt to the Big 12, and so far they’re 2 for 2 on regular season titles. Not too shabby. Now, can they break through for a National title? That’s the goal, along with a 3 peat, for a program that is absolutely rolling.

2.) Arizona (#8)

Tommy Lloyd has been very successful since coming over to Arizona in his first HC job, including last year as they acquitted themselves well in year 1 in the Big 12 finishing 3rd. The issue right now has been March success, with 4 trips overall and 3 exits in the Sweet 16 and one 1st round exit. Now, many programs would take going to 3 out of 4 sweet 16’s, but when you keep knocking on the door like this, especially being top-4 seeds each year, you’d like to break through at some point and push for a Final 4 berth. They certainly will have the talent to do so this year with 4 major pieces from last year’s group back and 3 elite FR joining the fun, plus some international talent that have some upside. I’m not going to try and project exactly what the rotation looks like, but the talent acquired and returning jumps off the page. They may have some depth concerns in the backcourt, which the transfer addition of Nelson points to as a concern for Lloyd, but starting Bradley and Burries should be a solid 1-2. Knowing Lloyd and seeing this talent I would expect Zona to not miss a beat offensively and to be back to their fast pace top-10 level offense. How they defend is always the question, and it’s been a mixed bag under Lloyd so far. They are going to have a lot of size and length inside, with good rebounders like Awaka and Peat in there as well, so it really could just come down to perimeter defense and overall attention and effort on that end that will determine their ceiling. Goal has to be a run to the Elite 8/Final 4, where anything can happen. If the FR deliver, they can cut down nets in March no doubt.

3.) Iowa St (#10)

Last year was a bit of a bumpy road for an Iowa St team that came into the season as a legit national title contender. They were up and down defensively, and ultimately lost star guard Keshon Gilbert late in the season which doomed them to a second round exit while giving up 91 points. That is not something we’ve come to expect from Otzelberger’s Cyclones, and while they were still 13th defensively, that’s the first time they haven’t been a top-8 team on that side under Otz. Conversely, it was the first time they were even top-50 on the other end (19th), so they clearly sacrificed some on D to improve on the O. I expect a shift back in the direction of top-10 D for them, and with the trio of Jefferson, Momcilovic and Lipsey all back as returning double digit scorers they should have enough punch to be right in the mix yet again. The transfers do leave a little to be desired, but Nelson was the WAC POY and Williams is a career 38% 3 point shooter, something they’ll need. I would expect a little regression offensively so while they may not be as talented as a year ago the results could easily be better as they should absolutely be good enough to get to a Sweet 16. Bottom line, I trust Oztelberger to have them playing elite defense and there looks to be enough scoring here that they’ll be back to their ways of grinding people down and winning low scoring games.

4.) BYU (#15)

BYU under Kevin Young is now one of the more intriguing programs in the country, with a fast pace play style and the money to bring in talent, they may be a force in college hoops going forward. They bring back Saunders who was their leading scorer and Keita inside who is one of the best old school big men in the game. Add in Rob Wright who will run the show at the point and the #1 overall FR AJ Dybantsa and there’s no doubt this is a loaded roster talent wise. The question is going to be if they can score at an elite enough level to make up for the likely deficiencies on D. They were 82nd a year ago on that end, and it didn’t matter in their 2nd round game against Wisconsin that they won 91-89, but against an elite Bama team they lost 113-88. Who knows, maybe they’ll turn that around, but the archetype of NBA style HC who let’s the boys loose to try and score 100 every night usually doesn’t end up leading to strong play on the other end. The play style mixed with the intrigue of Dybantsa makes the Cougars a must watch early in the year, and if it all clicks they should be primed to be relevant all year long. I’m not sure they’ll defend well enough to get to a Final 4, but hopefully we at least see Dybantsa and this offense make the dance and put on a show.

5.) Texas Tech (#17)

Absolutely fantastic season for McCasland at Texas Tech last year as they were 2nd in the conference and went to the Elite 8. Credit also to McCasland for completely transforming his style of play from his time at North Texas where they slowed the game down and played suffocating D. Now, they’re not quite running and gunning, but they are playing a bit faster and super efficient offensively (5th last year). They did lose a lot coming into this year, but still will be headlined by a strong 1-2 punch in JT Toppin and Christian Anderson. The transfer guards can all shoot the rock, over 40% from 3, but there seems to be a glaring weakness inside as they don’t have much depth behind Toppin and the 4 spot is going to be small. Not only that, they lost their lead man in Hawkins who was a big time playmaker for them and a dog on defense. The Darrion Williams loss is also big but I do like Watts filling that small ball 4 spot, I just worry about the depth inside and playmaking from the backcourt. I see a small step back this year for the program, and it could be that the football program’s heavy investment took some resources away from basketball which could have prevented them from holding on to guys like Williams and Overton. Either way at the top they’re still very talented as I expect Toppin to continue dominating inside and Anderson and Watts both look primed to have good seasons as options 2 and 3. I see them as a 4-5 seed that could be a surprise contender if Anderson breaks out.

6.) Kansas (#22)

It is the end of an era at Kansas as the group led by Harris and Adams, later joined by Hunter Dickinson, are finally out of eligibility and leave with no major accomplishments. For the first time under Bill Self Kansas didn’t win or share the regular season title in back-to-back seasons. It is probably refreshing at this point for Kansas fans to welcome in almost an entirely new roster after going through what they have over the past couple of years. Of course, most normal programs would be ok with 3 tournament appearances but for Kansas to not make it out of the first weekend in March for 3 straight years is unprecedented. This obviously comes off of the 2022 National title, so it’s hard to feel bad for Jayhawk fans, but it does feel like one of the great programs is slipping just a bit. That feeling hits even harder when you take a look at this roster, which outside of the excitement of Darryn Peterson and Bidunga there is a lot to be desired. What keeps them in my top-25 is what I’ve heard about Peterson, who by all accounts is ready to lead this team from day 1. Self himself said he’s never had a player more capable of carrying a team on his back, regardless of age. I expect Peterson to put on a show, and having Bidunga inside gives them a good 1-2 punch. They better defend, and Self better get them to gel together, and if that happens they could be dangerous. I think it’s more likely they have too little production around Peterson to be a top contender, and likely will struggle to get out of the first weekend yet again. I see them in the 5-6 seed range and making it 3 years in a row not winning the league. Crazy times for a once storied program, but Peterson has a chance to be a legend, we’ll see just how good he is.

7.) Baylor

Similar to Kansas, Baylor has been in a bit of a decline since their National title in 2021, getting in to the tourney in 4 straight years but failing to get beyond the 2nd round. Scott Drew is once again having to rebuild this roster via the transfer portal and FR, but this may be the worst team on paper he’s had in a really long time. It will be headlined by two mid-major stars in Agbim and Rataj, along with 5-star FR Tounde Yessoufou, but it’s hard to get overly excited about a roster relying on mid-major talent only. Last year they were a 9 seed and had a mix of returning talent and some top-end transfers like Roach and Omier. While I obviously respect the coaching ability of Scott Drew at this point, I’ve removed them from my year in and year out contender list. They have made 10 straight tourneys, and I doubt that streak ends this year, but in a conference with so many programs ascending we no longer have to consider the Bears a contender year in and year out. Drew winning a championship here is an unbelievable accomplishment, but his best days look to be behind him in Waco. This roster just isn’t competing with Houston/Arizona/Iowa St. He will still put out a competent team, but the talent gap is insurmountable over a 20 game conference season. Middle of the pack it is, with them fighting to make the tourney again like a year ago.

8.) Kansas St

Jerome Tang entered the Big 12 with a bang, rebuilding K-State and taking them to a 3 seed and the Elite 8 in year 1. The following 2 years were anything but a success though as he tried to recreate the portal magic he delivered in his first season here. He’s back at it again in year 4 as he has another huge class of transfers coming in who on paper look like they could be very good. Obviously PJ Haggerty is going to run the show and be one of the best guards in the conference, but even Bashir and the two Johnson’s should be solid pieces as well. The real question marks are inside, as the center spot looks weak unless Buca from Romania is a stud, and overall the impact the Euro guys will have is another question mark. Most expect Kostic to come right in and have a major role, but how he translates and is able to help out Haggerty is a major piece to this puzzle that is hard to predict. Typically we’ve seen Tang coached teams excel defensively and struggle to score, but I’d be surprised if that’s the case with this group. They lack size which could hurt them on the glass and protecting the paint, so I’d expect them to need to ramp up the pace and try and force TO’s and run up the score. Of the teams I have in the middle K-State is the one I could see having a surprise rise up toward the top, and while I don’t think they can overtake Arizona or Houston there is a chance these pieces come together and K-State is very dangerous. The talent is here, it’s just all about Tang’s ability to gel them together.

9.) Cincy

Cincy was one of the bigger disappointments of last season, as they entered top-20 by most ranking systems and per Kenpom were 55th overall at the end of the season. Just 7 Big 12 wins and yet another sub-50th season for Wes Miller who has yet to gain much momentum in his 4 years here. Unfortunately for him, he is having to yet again rebuild this roster, with 8 guys leaving the program with eligibility remaining. I do like the pieces he’s brought in, especially inside with Thiam and Miller at the 5 spot, along with Haynes at the 4 I think that’ll be the strong suit. Day Day Thomas is back to lead the backcourt, but they really need some juice from Kriisa, Celestine and the FR if they want to contend for Miller’s first tourney berth here. They have been really good defensively, and I expect that to continue with the athletes inside they have to defend the paint and rebound, it really all comes down to being able to score the ball, which they haven’t figured out in 4 agonizing years under Miller, with a 56th ranking on that end being the best year including two 100th or worse finishes. While I don’t expect them to be good enough to contend with the heavy hitters, he can coach defense and has enough here they can be in the middle of the pack again and fight for bubble relevance. That’s really the ceiling here though I’m afraid.

10.) TCU

In a world of roster fluctuation and rebuilds we have here at TCU the 2nd most returning guys in the Big 12 behind Houston. Now, last year wasn’t the best as they were .500 but they did have a quick blip on the bubble when they sat 15-11 in mid-February, only to finish just 1-5. It was a young team surrounded by transfers, but the bright side here is the youth in large part stuck it out and returned, while the transfers are being replaced. I think the additions make a lot of sense, adding 4 guys who shot 35% or better from 3, an area they were dreadful in a year ago being 342nd in the country in 3 point %. I love having a young group coming back to grow and get better together, which I acknowledge makes me sound old but in a world of change my 29 year old brain enjoys seeing a roster that takes me back to the days of recruiting and developing a roster. Kudos to Jamie Dixon, and for that I’m rooting for them to improve on that .500 overall record. I like Pierre and Harding but more than that, quitely, Punch/Posey/Robinson were top-100 recruits, so there’s talent here. They’ll be a better shooting team no doubt, and if they continue to defend at a high level then I could see them fighting into a much more legitimate bubble situation and maybe even cracking through to the dance.

11.) UCF

On a year to year basis I don’t have much confidence in Johnny Dawkins as a HC, as he’s gotten to just one tourney in 9 seasons as the head man for UCF. He once again is rebuilding the roster entirely, mixing a combo of proven mid-major producers and power conference guys looking for more PT. Is there a chance all this talent comes together and can fight for a tourney berth? I suppose, but given Dawkins’ history and the lack of proven talent at the Big 12 level, I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. I happen to like the roster construction a bit more than some of the teams below, but ultimately I can’t see the ceiling being any higher than like 9th in the conference and a trip to the NIT. The floor is of course much lower, although as we get further I’ll talk about how low these teams at the bottom of the Big 12 can go; a low that I don’t see UCF reaching. There will be wins on the schedule, but I’m not sure any honest mind would tell you they expect much from this roster and this HC.

12.) Oklahoma St

While I have little hope at the bottom of the Big 12, if there is one program I feel like could actually be ascending it’s Oklahoma St. I love the hire of Steve Lutz and I love that he’s established his identity here at this program. He had only coached 3 seasons prior, but in all 3 at WKU and Tx A&M CC they played a blistering pace offensively while ramping up the pressure on D and forcing TO’s, earning a tourney ticket in all 3 years. All of that continued last year outside of the ticket to the dance, but if he can raise the talent profile I do feel like he can have success at this program. Did he do that this year? I’m not convinced of that, but I do expect steps in the right direction, and if he can hold on to the FR group he brought in then I will expect a jump in year 3. At the very least, with a step forward they will play a fun brand of ball that will result in havoc and chaotic stretches. Better than the alternative and certainly good news for a program that was once a yearly factor in the Big 12 until the brutal stretch under Mike Boynton.

13.) Arizona St

We are now a decade into the Bobby Hurley tenure at Arizona St and is anyone satisfied? Does anyone feel like there’s momentum or difference making here? I certainly don’t, and with just 3 tourney appearances (0 wins) and yet another season of missing expectations I’m starting to wonder why he’s still here. They had 2 of the top FR in the country and some very talented transfers and despite a 9-2 non-con start finished just 4-18 for yet another horrific season last year. Obviously, after a train wreck like that he is enduring another roster rebuild as we enter year 11, and frankly I don’t see anything overwhelming here to make me feel like success is around the corner. We’re basically looking at a mid-major All-Star B roster with some Euro guys coming in. Remarkably underwhelming. The fact they are this high in my conference prediction shows you the depths to which the bottom feeders are going to go as we move along, as I see no hope of a tourney appearance for the Sun Devils and we have 3 more schools to cover. While the Big 12 at the top is still very strong, this bottom group is eye-poppingly bad.

14.) Utah

It’s a new era for Utah hoops as they bring in long time NBA assistant and Utah alum Alex Jensen to lead the program. I don’t think there is more of a Utah guy that they could have brought in, as not only did he spend his college years on campus but he spent over a decade as an assistant with the Utah Jazz. Similar to the move by in state rival BYU in their hiring of Kevin Young, the Utes will hope to bring a level of pro style basketball and the allure of playing for a guy with NBA connections to lift this program back into relevancy. Throughout the 90’s and early 2000’s this was a proud program, led by Rick Majerus they were a perennial contender and National runner-up in 1998. I say all that to say there’s a level of hope and tradition here that led to this hire as they try and get back to the tourney for the first time since 2016. The roster is highlighted by some legit mid-major stars last year and a few power conference guys looking for bigger roles. Ultimately, it’s the program with the most question marks as we have very little to go on in terms of their HC and play style, and the roster is entirely new. So, who knows, but the talent level is there to at least make them frisky if all goes perfectly. Most likely another rough year but hopefully they play hard and show some promising signs for the future, as unlike Young at BYU Jensen doesn’t quite have the resources or returning talent to compete right away it appears.

15.) West Virginia

Parting ways with Bob Huggins has put this program in a tailspin as they’re now on to their 3rd HC in year 3 post Huggy Bear. He and his havoc style of play were part of my upbringing in college hoops so seeing the Mountaineers in this position stings a little as a general fan of college hoops, but I won’t waste too much time lamenting what used to be. Where we find ourselves now is a new regime led by Ross Hodge who comes over after 2 years as the head man at N. Texas. Not exactly the prestige that DeVries had, but maybe that will help the Mountaineers hold on to Hodge for more than one season. Turning to the talent on the roster, I’m not excited outside of Trey Eaglestaff who I at least am hoping is a fun watch at times. Unfortunately for him, he’s entering a very strong conference and doesn’t have any proven commodities at this level to help him out, including the coaching staff. I hope this program gets back on its feet, I just don’t think it’ll be a year 1 turnaround, and I’m sure you can see why.

16.) Colorado

I feel like Tad Boyle really had something going at Colorado out there in the PAC-12 just producing solid but unspectacular teams year in and year out. However, last year was a turn as in year 1 in the Big 12 it all came crashing down as they went just 3-17 in league play and essentially all the talent is gone from that roster. To make matters worse, it is pretty clear the resources Colorado has are being funneled to Deion and the football program, so Boyle is stuck trying to compete in the Big 12 with a roster that would fit better in the WCC. Maybe the international guys hit and Barrington Hargress translates seamlessly from the Big West to the Big 12, but even then what’s the ceiling? Doubling their conference wins to 6? It’s a sad state of affairs, but similar to guys like Mike Rhoades (Penn St) and Fred Hoibert (Nebraska) he’s losing to football and coaching with 1 arm tied behind his back. Until that changes I don’t expect much from the Buffs on the hardwood.