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1.) Duke (#5)

Rinse and repeat for Duke right now as they continue to roll in top FR classes that produce one-and- done NBA talent while competing at the top level of the sport. Jon Scheyer has made a seamless transition to HC after Coach K’s retirement and seems to be elevating each year, with last year’s ACC title and Final 4 trip major feathers in his cap as he continues to prove himself. What’s most impressive is he’s getting the more unheralded guys to stick around, which helps with roster continuity and means he doesn’t have to rely on the portal. They are up there with Purdue/Houston/UConn in terms of being able to hold on to guys and develop them into great players, which feels old school at this point with how much roster turnover there is. Now to this year, as we have 4 more one-and-done prospects joining that group of 6 returners all looking to fill the void left behind by the 5 NBA draft picks from last year’s group. The Boozer twins are the big name tickets, but Dame Sarr is expected to come in and be a major impact guy and Khamenia is also highly regarded and should push returning wing Isaiah Evans for time. It feels like Boozer/Foster/Evans in the backcourt with Sarr and the other Boozer inside, but they also have more experienced guys in Brown and Ngongba at their disposal as well. It’s an embarrassment of riches for Scheyer as even if the youngsters aren’t ready right away he has a group of returning guys that could be a competitive starting 5 themselves. The ceiling obviously is going to be determined by the FR and their ability to be productive, and Cam Boozer already looks the part. They may take a small step back defensively I will say, as Flagg and Maluach inside made life very difficult for teams with their length, but they’ve been consistently strong on that end under Scheyer even without those 2 so major regression not expected. At the end of the day, they should be one of the best teams in the country and really only challenged by Louisville at the top of the ACC, with a goal of a return to the Final 4 very realistic, especially if the FR can be stars.

2.) Louisville (#12)

Pat Kelsey has my complete and total respect after what he did last year, taking a Louisville program that was dead and instantly reviving them. To paint the picture, they had endured 2 seasons that saw them go 5-35 in ACC play prior to his arrival. Immediately, he got them to the tourney and a staggering 18-2 record in ACC play. Unreal, and one of the best stories in all of college hoops last year, and it looks like it should continue. He brings back a major piece in J’Vonne Hadley and also promising big man Kasean Prior who was really good for 7 games until he got injured for the season. Top-50 recruit Khani Rooths is back as well and Khalifa and Rodgers should be good depth pieces. The story is going to be the backcourt additions, and man do I love a HC who has some self awareness and understands how to build a roster to fit his system. Kelsey loves playing fast and launching from deep, and the transfer guards coming in all scored 14+ ppg while shooting over 40% from 3 last year, with Conwell and McKneeley doing it at the P5 level. On paper it’s one of the most dangerous teams in the country in terms of outside shooting, as Hadley also shot well at 38% from 3 last year. I fully expect them to leap into the top-10 offensively this year, as they kind of struggled at times shooting and finished below 33% from the outside. That number is going to jump up dramatically with this backcourt. On top of the transfers they added 5-star freshman PG Mikel Brown Jr, who is undoubtedly going to be an important playmaker and has a chance to average a lot of assists with all of these shooters around him. With all of that said it’s pretty obvious what I think of this Louisville team, and while I won’t predict them to win the natty, if they can defend at the same level they did last year they are clearly a Final 4 threat with all this firepower offensively.

3.) North Carolina

There’s no way around it, this program is slipping under Hubert Davis, with last year’s disappointment just the latest step toward Davis losing control. Even though they were propped up by the committee and given a bid when they likely shouldn’t have been, they still lost in the true 1st round and now see an insane amount of talent leave the program. Not only that, look at what is coming in? Is that the kind of class you would expect from what is supposed to be a top-tier program in the country? I don’t know if he’s not tapped into the resources necessary to hit on the big transfers, or simply guys don’t want to play for him, but to be forced to rely on a guard that scored 10 ppg at Colorado St to replace RJ Davis is a recipe for regression. To say the least, there’s a huge drop off from the top-2 to the rest of the conference, and while there are other programs who are looking to rise up and challenge those 2, the Tar Heels appear to be sprinting the opposite direction. Despite the negative framing, they still should be in the 3rd to 5th range in the ACC, which speaks to the weakness of the ACC in hoops, but this school expects to compete with Duke at the top and be a threat to make the Final 4 every year. Davis earned a longer leash due to the run they went on in year 1 to the title game, but let’s not forget they were a disappointing 8 seed that year. A couple of years later they had a good year, earned a 1 seed and lost in the Sweet 16. My prediction is they are still an ok team, with a strong frontcourt behind Veesar and the 5-Star FR Wilson, but the guard play will not be good enough for them to be a top-25 team. My attitude is more a reflection of how far below expectations for the program they are, and less how bad they will be, as they won’t be bad per se. At the end of the day, given the weakness of the ACC, they probably will be on the bubble again begging the committee to throw them a bone yet again. So how long does this mega brand lift an incompetent HC?

4.) NC State

A program looking to move in the opposite direction of the Tar Heels is this NC State program, as they’ve hired Will Wade from McNeese and he has completely transformed this roster. I will say, we’ve seen these rebuilds have wide ranging results, but what we know about Wade is he can build a program, whether that includes breaking all the rules is a different discussion. He did it at Chattanooga, LSU and then again at McNeese, so the man can coach and evaluate talent. He has brought in a big transfer class of course and it’s headlined by Darrion Williams who will be the man here and is surrounded by some intriguing pieces. The backcourt will likely be some combination of Holloman/Arceneaux/Breed/Copeland. Those guys are solid but not elite by any means, and the frontcourt leaves a little to be desired as well with Ven-Allen Lubin likely the best bet to form an undersized 4/5 combo with Williams. They clearly will lack size, but each of Wade’s last 3 seasons as a HC his teams have been top-15 at generating TO’s so he’s very comfortable playing smaller, more athletic guys that can switch, trap and generally apply pressure defensively. They will struggle to rebound but he hopes to generate more possessions than they give up in the turnover/offensive rebound battle. My biggest worry is outside shooting as none of the transfers have been consistent shooters from 3. They will have to get out and run and get easy buckets in transition, and when they don’t they’ll turn to guys like Williams and Copeland to create both for themselves and others. It’s not a sure thing by any means, but I do think there’s enough meat on this bone for Wade to have some success in year 1. I would predict a tourney appearance but at best like a 7 seed, more likely 10 or the First 4. A good first step, but certainly not a roster that guarantees future or current success.

5.) Notre Dame

I will be honest last year was a disappointment from Coach Shrewsberry and this Irish team, but there were injuries to their top players that impacted it for sure. I entered last year with hope it would be the breakthrough under Shrews, and a year later I’m doubling down, betting that I was simply a year early on my prediction. What I know is this guy can really coach the game, and judging by the fact they were under .500 and only 1 guy transferred out of the program it’s clear he has these guys bought in. Burton is a legit 1st team ACC guy and should be talked about more on All-American lists, and he certainly will be if they turn things around and compete in the ACC. If he and Braeden Shrewsberry can stay healthy this year they form a dynamic backcourt, and they will be surrounded by guys like Sir Mohammed and Cole Certa who are back looking to make SO jumps after coming in as top recruits, as well as another top recruit in Jalen Haralson. As a whole this should be the most talented they’ve been at the 1-4 spots since Shrews has been here, so long as the young guys are developing. The key figure is going to be Carson Towt and how he is able to hold down the 5 spot. He averaged a double-double at Northern Arizona and for this team to have success he has to be the starting 5 and give them something like 8 and 8 a night. With this I’m betting on coaching, development and the idea that the old school way of building a program can still work in college ball. Yes, you can build through the portal with endless money, but I firmly believe you can still recruit, develop and then compete as long as you can get the guys to buy in and stick around. He’s done the latter, now we just need to see the former come to fruition. I think it does this year and they sneak back into the tourney as a dangerous team behind Burton.

6.) Syracuse

Syracuse appears to be yet another victim of poor hiring in the ACC as Red Autry has gone just 20-22 in a bad ACC over his first 2 seasons at the helm. This has to be his last chance to prove he can succeed as the HC here, as the talent on the roster is plenty good enough to get to the tournament, and certainly shouldn’t wind up 115th in the final KP rankings like last year. They brought in Nait George to run the point next to JJ Starling giving them a very strong backcourt. Those guys will be complimented by Kingz and the freshmen Sadiq White and Kiyan Anthony (son of legendary Carmelo Anthony). The added excitement of having Melo’s son on the roster is only going to heighten the expectations from the fanbase, and frankly where I have them in this preview is where the expectation should be. Freeman is a beast inside and the backcourt is full of guys who can score the rock. The onus is on Autry to get them to play winning basketball and not like a glorified AAU team. That is the big question, and I could go on and on as to why that will or will not happen. What I’ve chosen to do is properly lay out what should be expected, independent of whether or not I believe Autry has what it takes to accomplish the feat. As I’ve said before, coaching is largely measured by your success relative to expectations, so to properly set them here at a tourney berth and being competitive with the upper echelon in this conference sets us up to fairly judge Autry. To this point he’s done less with more, so we’ll see if he can finally turn the talent here into winning.

7.) SMU

I actually have some hope for what Andy Enfield is doing here with SMU as I think they over-performed their talent level last year, and while they did lose Chuck Harris I think the combo of Pierre and Washington could make them more explosive this year. Boopie Miller will still run the show, and they should get some development from Yigitoglu who was a bright spot in year 1 here. They will need some of these young guys to get up to speed quickly though as their depth is mostly going to be from this big group of FR. As an aside, being a Pacers fan and seeing the name Jermaine O’Neal Jr popup is both a nice bump of nostalgia as well as a reminder of how old I am, but even aside from my own connections it is wild as someone born in the 90’s how many of these NBA player’s sons are entering college hoops right now. Back to the issue at hand though, how good can this team really be? I actually do think the ceiling here could be squeaking into the tourney, as Miller is dynamic and I do think the transfers in will help replace what was lost and maybe even elevate them. I’ll say it again, but a couple of the FR absolutely have to emerge and give them productive minutes off the bench, and if that happens they will have a fighting chance to breakthrough and get back to the dance.

8.) Virginia

Unfortunately, we aren’t even halfway through the ACC and I’m already beyond the teams I have hope for making the tourney this year, and boy do we have a ways to go. We’ll start with this Virginia team that is still desperately trying to get a grip on things after Tony Bennett’s sudden retirement prior to last season. They endured one disappointing season under interim Ron Sanchez that saw them go sub .500 for the first time since Bennett’s first year here in 2010 and quickly moved on to rising star Ryan Odom. Odom has made stops at UMBC (where he famously beat UVA as a 16 seed), Utah St and VCU, taking all of them to the dance by year 2 there. If you’re a UVA fan that’s where your hope lies, trusting he will be able to do here what he did at his previous stops with fewer resources. I already think in year 1 there is at least some hope you’ll see a step in the right direction, as the backcourt looks like it could be pretty strong with Malik Thomas, Dallin Hall and Jacari White. The strength of that trio, and even beyond them to guys like Lewis and Tillis, is outside shooting, as they have 4 guys who shot 39% or better last year. Inside is a big question mark but hey, for a school that has played at a snails pace and struggled to score maybe a year of scoring with fun guards will be a breath of fresh air, even if they struggle to rebound and defend the paint. I expect a step in the right direction but not an instant turnaround, with eyes on year 2 under Odom being the year they get back into contention.

9.) Clemson

Out of respect to Brad Brownell and what he is usually able to accomplish I have Clemson right here in the middle of the league, but it would not be hyperbole to suggest this is one of the worst rosters on paper he has had. Nick Davidson coming in gives them a glimmer of hope, but ultimately it’s a bunch of young FR and mid major transfers trying to compete in what is supposed to be a power conference league. What you can learn by looking at his tenure here though is he has had issues building sustained success YOY. I fear this will be one of those regression years as he tries to reload with young talent that he eventually develops into a tourney worthy team a season or two down the road. He faces challenges that some of these SEC programs do where the focus is fully on football, so his success is a major credit to his coaching ability and knack for finding unheralded guys and developing them into productive ACC players. Is this the 9th most talented roster in the conference on paper? No, but I still think he finds a way to get them into the upper half of this league, but that still likely won’t be good enough to get them to a 3rd straight tourney. Step back for Clemson but not anything abnormal for what we’ve seen under Brownell.

10.) Miami

Well, I have no idea what to make of this Miami program as they move on from the Jim Larranaga era that actually saw some successful seasons at various periods, but it really fell off the last couple of years. Being Miami they always are able to bring in talent, so new head man Jai Lucas gets his first crack at being a D1 HC in quite a generous spot in south Florida. He has a trio of transfers that give them some hope in Donaldson, Reneau and Washington, but as we all know a couple of transfers that scored in double figures before does not equate to wins. At the end of the day I have zero clue what style of play Lucas is going to try and put out there or what identity this team will take, but he’s stated he’s a defensive guy which would be a welcome site here where defense has mostly been an afterthought in recent years. I would be shocked if he was able to take this roster and turn it into a tourney team, but you can never say never, and that top trio I mentioned earlier could be good enough if they do play tough D. At the end of the day, this preview probably told you very little other than that Lucas is the new HC, but genuinely how could we know anything beyond that given his lack of experience? That fact could make this a very awesome story if he hits, or a very disappointing hire because this should be a program that can be a top contender in this conference given its location and resources.

11.) Stanford

The Cardinal haven’t been relevant in hoops in a long time, but Kyle Smith enters year 2 with legitimate momentum after taking Stanford above .500 in conference play for the first time since 2018. The bad news is the best talent is gone, but look at that roster retention, that has to be fantastic news for anyone that cares about this program as he clearly has this group bought in to what he’s selling. Do I expect the talent to be good enough to compete? No. However, what I know about Kyle Smith is he is able to extract more out of a roster than you can see on paper, so while the overall returning production is low, the pedigree of talent is low and the incoming guys are unheralded, I think they’ll be feisty and play very hard. That will be good enough to keep them out of the cellar, and while I think the conference record may take a step back, I think there’s an outside chance a star emerges and all of a sudden you have a team to take serious. That’s all my belief in Kyle Smith who built Wazzu into a tourney team with limited talent, primarily by slowing the game down and playing exceptional D. I expect that and because of that I expect them to finish better than the roster suggests.

12.) Georgia Tech

It felt like the 8-4 finish to the season last year could have been the start of something here for Damon Stoudamire, but with the amount of turnover it feels like it’s going to be hard to sustain it. The good news is they played much better defensively, and down the stretch they picked up wins over Louisville and Clemson who were both tourney teams. 3 key pieces are back, but the rest of the production is gone and will have to be replaced by an pretty underwhelming incoming class. The transfers are highlighted by 2 mid-major guards, with Washington likely to start at the point. I’m not going to even criticize Stoudamire in terms of coaching, he just doesn’t have the talent to really compete, and that’s where the criticism comes as he’s in control of that as a talent evaluator. Maybe he’s not getting the resources needed, but whatever the reason they are going to continue to be in the bottom half of this conference without an influx of talent. Don’t get me wrong, they won’t be awful, but in terms of breaking through and seeing a major step forward this isn’t going to be the year, and it’s year 3. Is it ever going to come? So far, he hasn’t cracked the top-100 in final KP standings, so maybe we start with that as a next step.

13.) Wake Forest

I really thought last year was going to be the breakthrough for Steve Forbes at Wake as he finally seemed to have the talent to get to the tourney. They were in great shape, albeit barely, as February came to a close and then they dropped two inexplicable games to Virginia and NC State who were sub-100 ranked teams and it burst their bubble. That core group is now gone, with only a couple of the younger holdovers still around. I have a hard time believing they will be as good as last year’s team based on the talent, but guys like Juke Harris and Omaha Biliew were highly regarded out of high school so maybe they can break out with a larger role. The transfers are all inefficient shooters outside of Mason, so I imagine that will be a major struggle, not to mention the obvious lack of size with nobody over 6’9″ on the roster. Ultimately I’m burned by my faith in them last year and with all that talent gone to waste I just can’t believe in Forbes, not to mention the talent on paper doesn’t jump out at you anyway. Back to irrelevance for Wake this year.

14.) Pitt

I have trouble year in and year out buying into Pitt and Jeff Capel, who has been mostly underwhelming over his 7 seasons at the helm, turning in just 1 trip to the tournament and just 2 seasons above .500 in conference play. What I’m saying is, he’s struggling to attract/evaluate/develop talent to the extent he can compete in the upper half of this conference on a consistent basis. Then I look at this roster and the production that was lost from an already struggling team and wonder how anyone would anticipate this being a step forward for this program. The only way this prediction is way off is if the Australian transfers hit and lead the show alongside Corhen and a developing Cummings. That 1-2 punch should be pretty good, but around them will be a ton of question marks in terms of scoring. Add on to that they’ve only been top-50 defensively once in his 7 years, so don’t expect much on that end either. Long story short, both the on paper talent and history under Capel give me very little hope for Pitt to be relevant in the ACC this year.

15.) Virginia Tech

Mike Young got off to a hot start at VA Tech, getting them to 2 tourney’s in his first 3 seasons, but it’s now been 3 straight seasons at .500 or below in ACC play with no tickets to the dance. This may be his last run at it as I feel like this program does care about being relevant in hoops at least a little bit. My issue with his coaching is they never really are great defensively and they play a slow pace, so they will have to be uber efficient on offense to sustain success. The transfers they brought in at the guards spots are anything but that historically, and while I like Hansberry inside to pair with Lawal I just don’t see the guard play being good enough. They were one of the most turnover prone teams in the country last year so that will need to be rectified as well. I don’t know man, I know they have a coaching search in football upcoming but if I was in Blacksburg and cared about hoops I think I’d be ready to move on. There just seems to be too much to correct from last year, and maybe the international guys, specifically Neoklis Avdalas who has generated some buzz, can come in and help more than I’m giving credence to, but at the end of the day I just don’t see it with this roster in terms of getting into the upper half of the league.

16.) Florida St

Alright so Leonard Hamilton is out after some really good years that were bookended by a nosedive to irrelevancy that saw them finish no better than 79th (KP) or with more than 17 wins over the last 4 seasons. To replace him? A first year HC in Luke Loucks who returns to his alma matter after a coaching stint in the NBA as an assistant, a growing trend we’re seeing across the sport these days. I would imagine we’ll see a NBA style of play here, although that’s not guaranteed it just has to be the assumption as we’ve seen it elsewhere, check out BYU. The issue is the roster as it’s just not very good, albeit with some bright mid-major players you just need more than that to open things up and play free and loose at the college level. They have some good 3 point shooters, but inside has almost no proven commodities and all of the production essentially is at the mid-major level, so assuming it’s all going to translate seamlessly would be naive given what we’ve seen across the sport. Do I think this hire will be a failure? Frankly, I don’t think anyone could possibly know, but year 1 with this roster it would be a major accomplishment to push for a. .500 record in conference. In the ACC that doesn’t get you close to the dance, but it would be a major step toward attracting talent back to Tallahassee, a program that just 5-10 years ago that was a perennial contender in the ACC.

17.) Cal

Another program that is kind of stuck in the mud here with Cal, as they haven’t been relevant since Cuonzo Martin was here almost a decade ago. They’re on HC number 3 since then, with Mark Madsen now entering year 3 trying to get this program off the mat. He has seemingly made no progress, but he’s been bringing in decent talent and he has finished better than predicted by the likes of KP each of his first 2 years. The issue is the starting point, as even with the improvement they have yet to crack the top-100. The incoming talent this year once again provides a touch of hope, as they have some power conference dudes like Chris Bell, Dai Dai Ames and Justin Pippen looking for bigger roles. They have a few guys back as well so hope isn’t at 0 by any means, but when we say hope I really mean to just take another step forward, not to breakthrough by any means. I would be impressed if they could finish above .500 overall and push for .500 in conference play. I doubt they’ll get there, but maybe they could crack the top-100 overall and show some signs of life.

18.) Boston College

I hate to be dismissive but after 4 years of Earl Grant going below .500 here, with year 4 being a bottoming out moment at just 4-16 in the ACC, it’s hard to get even remotely excited about the state of this program. There’s some talent here, there’s some returning pieces that were productive, but how much is that really saying when the team won just 4 games in maybe the worst ACC we’ve ever seen. Once they start taking themselves seriously maybe I will. And to be clear, what I mean is no serious program is holding on to a HC that goes below .500 in conference play in his first 4 years with year 4 being the worst. That is cause for firing at any serious program, yet here we sit heading into year 5 with zero being accomplished and zero momentum being build. Suffice it to say, I don’t have much hope for BC this year.