For those of you new here, Week 1 will give you a full breakdown of what we’re doing.

We’re back for an update and we have some adjustments to discuss as we continue to mold this new project. The biggest change was to the “Solid” Archetype where I cut out what I would say was a hole in the middle, where the teams that lied there were neither Great offensively or defensively, kind of living in a middle ground. This currently is where Nebraska and Iowa reside, and once I ran the numbers they aligned, results wise, closer to the Wannabe archetype than the Solid archetype. This move shored up the Solid group to make it more reliable and right in line with Strong Enough as a 3rd tier grouping of reliability behind Elite and Great, with little change to the Wannabe archetype – an easy decision.

Next was just a potentially temporary move to help showcase how ridiculous Michigan has been so far, as they currently sit in a territory only 5 teams have occupied since 2002. All 5 of those teams made it to the Final 4 with 3 of them advancing to the title game. Clearly that is off the charts reliability, as a 100% hit rate on Final 4 trips is unprecedented. The line of demarcation is a > 50 net efficiency++, or spread between O++ and D++. I have chiseled out that section and dubbed it the “Juggernaut” archetype. The rarity calls for special treatment in my opinion, and it will be fascinating to watch and see if they can keep this level of play up all the way to March entering the tourney. For reference, 2024 Florida is included in this along with 2019 Virginia who both won the title. The all-time biggest spread was 2015 Kentucky who went undefeated until the Final 4, and Michigan trails then by a couple of tenths of a point so very close.

Week 2 Thoughts:

As I said above Michigan is the story at the top, but we still have 5 Elite teams which would tie the record all-time and surpass last year’s 4. Overall with the carve out in the Solid group as well as some teams rising and falling we’ve dropped to just 16 in our reliable categories after debuting with 20. I still expect efficiencies to drop as most teams have 18-20 games against conference opponents to go, so competition will rise and teams will have poor showings. On a micro level, clearly Vandy has to be the surprise of the season jumping all the way into “Great” territory with 3-star Sophomore PG Tyler Tanner being the story early on. I think most of the others involved here are usual suspects, and while some may be over-performing to have Vandy what I would consider 7th overall and the leader in the SEC is shocking. Bama has finally fallen to where I think they should reside as a Matador, and Kansas has become our first Grinder to watch. Last year it was St. John’s holding down the grinder spot week after week, and they were upset in R2. I don’t want to be alarmist for Jayhawk fans so I’ll say it’s just December, long way to go and your best player has been hurt so remain calm. All in all it’s still early but some interesting story lines are developing. Next update will be 2 weeks from now as I’ll pause for Christmas. See you then.