For those of you new here, Week 1 will give you a full breakdown of what we’re doing.

The story that is clearly emerging as we blaze our way through January, is that the top of the sport is the strongest we have ever seen it (in this context ever is since 2002, where my data begins). We currently have 8 teams in either Great or Elite territory (see chart below), which would smash the record of 5 which we saw both last year and in 2019. The important thing to highlight here is of those 10 in ’25 and ’19, 9 of them made it at least to the Elite 8, with both national champions being “Elite”. What I’m suggesting is we are looking primed for another top heavy tournament in March, with the top seeds getting through the first few rounds consistently, unlike say 2023 when there was just 1 Great team and 0 Elite and absolute pandemonium broke out in March with the Final 4 being seeds 4/5/9/9. I would bet strongly we don’t see anything like that play out, with likely top seeded Arizona/Duke/Michigan/Iowa St/Houston all looking strong analytically. What I’m seeing are some titanic matchups between really good teams starting in the Sweet 16 and continuing from there, making this potentially less wild and chaotic but possibly the most treacherous road to a title we’ve ever seen. You are simply going to have to knock off 3-4 very strong teams to cut the nets down in Indy. So while we may not have the cinderella runs we’ve all become accustomed to, the 2nd and 3rd weekends should feature some incredible games between high powered teams. True hoops fans rejoice.

Week 6 Thoughts:

We are still going to be upsetting UConn fans as they linger down away from the top contenders, but I want to mention I still have them as a 1 seed in the tournament. This is not a resumé tool this is just an analytics based look at where teams stand compared to historical results. The Huskies offense simply needs to improve for them to be considered more reliable, it is a vulnerability at this stage those other teams don’t have. Next, we have to talk Vandy, who has now dropped 3 in a row and slid from borderline Elite to the triad of Wannabe/Strong Enough/Solid. The data doesn’t know what to make of them anymore than I do, but one thing is for sure, defensively they have regressed with the increased competition in the SEC. Nebraska is trending in the other direction, moving closer and closer to Great territory as they remain undefeated. That matchup with Michigan looms large next week, but even a close loss would cement them as a true contender. Speaking of Michigan, the Juggernaut Watch is taking a pause for a week as they fell below that > 50 Net++ spread, while Arizona continues to inch closer themselves. Lastly, we have to mention Virginia again, as they have made one of the largest jumps we’ve seen, moving all the way into Great territory after being a Matador in our 1st edition. Massive improvement defensively, even with the jump in competition in the ACC so shoutout to Ryan Odom and the Hoos. That about does it so until next week, enjoy the hoops.