We’re back for another year of covering all things bubble in the lead up to the wildest post-season in sports. This is the place where, for the next 8 weeks or so, we’ll attempt to bring clarity to what can be a complex and annoyingly intricate selection process. Personally, I love every bit of it, but even as a self-proclaimed bracketologist I get lost in the weeds sometimes, so maybe this column is more of a cathartic release and organizational tool for me than it is a source of joy for you but hey, I appreciate you nonetheless.

What we understand here is that every fan fighting on the bubble just wants to know there’s a chance, a little drop of hope that there’s a path to watching their team in the NCAA tournament. That’s what we hope to provide as we lay out every scenario, dig into why exactly team A may be in over team B and what I expect from the committee. A key point off the rip, I am going to be judicial in my assignment of locks – I have locked a team who missed the tourney altogether before (shoutout 2024 Oklahoma), I don’t intend on making that mistake again. Ultimately, I’m going to try and not get bogged down by what I “think” should happen and focus on everything that could. So, while it may seem obvious that team X couldn’t possibly fall apart and miss the dance, please don’t question why they aren’t locked with 19 wins in February, they could wind up being the 2024 Sooners. With that, let’s get into it.  

This season already has been quite different from what we’ve seen in the past, with a much larger group of dominant teams at the top of the sport that already have powerhouse resumé’s. That has caused a ripple effect as our fabled bubble teams have failed to rack up big time wins, opening the doors for mid-major teams like St. Louis, Miami (OH), Santa Clara and Murray St to legitimately be in the conversation, despite not having big time wins themselves. This is the most difficult conversation every year I’ve found, as the mid-majors struggle to schedule with the big boys and get left out a la 2024 Indiana St. What we may have on our hands this year are some power conference resumé’s who aren’t all that different from the mid-majors potentially vying for those spots, making for very compelling debate as this season rolls on. For some added context, last year we had just 6 power conference teams with 2 or fewer losses at this point. This year we have 12. Can’t lock em all up this early, so there may be some surprises we discuss as “bubble teams” that are really just great teams about to be locked, just not quite yet.

That my friends is the story thus far. For those new here stick with me, as I explain more about what I’m doing, vets can skip ahead with the buttons below.

So, I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.

“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.

“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.

“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists. 

“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.

Well, we have 67 teams on the 1st watch, and while this season gives us the most top heavy resumé’s I’ve seen in my time doing this, there are still 37 at-large bids to fill. I have provided below the Quadrant system to help contextualize what I’m referring to when discussing wins. Feels like this is getting better understood but for those confused, there it is. Each conference has a table with the team’s resumé to reference at the beginning, for your own comparison, including the locks. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 67 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 1/27. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Quadrant 1 (Q1)	Quadrant 2 (Q2)	Quadrant 3 (Q3)	Quadrant 4 (Q4)
Home (1-30)	Home (31-75)	Home (76-160)	Home (161-364)
Neutral (1-50)	Neutral (51-100)	Neutral (101-200)	Neutral (201-364)
Away (1-75)	Away (76-135)	Away (136-240)	Away (241-364)

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 23

Locks: 5

Bids Left: 40

Bubble: 58

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–ACC–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

UNC (23 NET)

If you’re a veteran around here you may remember me as being a bit harsh on Hubert Davis in the past, so I’ll admit I was pretty surprised when this Carolina group jumped out to 12-1 in noncon play, picking up wins over Kansas/UK/Ohio St along the way. That was an extremely strong start, but they’ve stubbed their toe a bit going just 4-3 so far in ACC play, with the recent trip to Cali seeing them lose to Stanford/Cal, hardly the UNC standard. What is up to that standard though is the 5-star diaper dandy Caleb Wilson, who is the undisputed leader of this team and clearly one of the best players in the country. His running mate in the front court Henri Veesar has been a stud as well, so while the recent stretch has been tough, I do think they have the talent behind those 2 to be dangerous. The guard play is a weakness, but per usual under Davis when they lose it’s because of their defense, and that’s simply going to be the bugaboo for this team as we continue on this year. All of that withstanding, they just went to Virginia and knocked off the Hoos, hard to ask for a better bounce back. With GA Tech and Syracuse on deck, we might be seeing the Tar Heels hit their stride.

Virginia (14)

Right off the jump, we have one of the surprises of the season, as year 1 under Ryan Odom is off to a raging success. After just 1 year in the dumps, due in large part to the sudden retirement of Tony Bennett, Odom transformed this roster and has the Hoos 8-3 in Q1-2 games as we approach February. Led by the European duo of De Ridder and Grunloh in the front court, this ragtag group of transfers have come together nicely and racked up road wins over Texas, NC State, Louisville and SMU, all featured on the watch. That group of wins has given them plenty of room for error, but given how well they’re playing I doubt we’ll be looking at their margin on the bubble and more about how high up the seed list they can rise. They are not just on the right track they’re on the fast track to locking up, which is crazy to say given they began the season 59th in Kenpom. They did hit a bit of a hiccup Saturday with the loss to UNC, but in terms of resumé they are still in a strong position, with winnable trips to Notre Dame and BC on deck. Certainly not time to panic.

Louisville (17)

This has been a tale of 2 seasons so far for Pat Kelsey and the Cardinals as they got out of the gates hot at 9-1, including a win over Kentucky. Then the Mikel Brown injury, which had a major impact on them offensively as he is their primary playmaker, setting up McKneely and Conwell with much cleaner looks from outside. He just returned for the first time on Saturday and they picked up a comfortable win behind his 20 points and 6 assists, exhibit A. With him, they look to be a no-doubt top-25 team primed for at minimum a 4-5 seed in the dance, possibly higher. It will be an interesting resumé to judge going forward now that he’s back. How much will the committee overlook that stretch without him? That’ll be a tough call, but if they continue to look strong with him I expect them to get a least a little forgiveness on those losses. For now, they have to navigate a very tough week starting with tonight’s trip to Cameron Indoor, with SMU at home around the corner. Massive opportunities, and with Brown now back it’s a chance to make a statement.

Clemson (31)

Brad Brownell is at it again as he had the Clemson Tigers off to a 6-0 start in the ACC after losing most of his roster from last year’s team that was a 5 seed. They are on track for that again, behind Utah Valley transfer Carter Welling and Middle Tennessee transfer Jestin Porter who joined forces with returning Tigers RJ Godfrey and Dillon Hunter to lead the way offensively. That side isn’t the strength though, as they are a top-15 team defensively and top-10 cleaning up the defensive glass. It’s not flashy, and many casual fans might not be able to name the leading scorers here, but they’re winning. The knock on them at this point is the lack of elite wins, and while the neutral site win over Georgia is aging well, SMU is the only other win over a team projected in the field right now, with a road win over Syracuse barely holding on to Q1 status. They need to pick up a couple more Q1 wins to really feel comfortable, but at this point in the season, and given the state of the bubble below them, they’re in a solid spot right now. They won’t get a major opportunity until mid-February, so for now they just need to hold serve and avoid disaster.

SMU (33)

SMU quietly has one of the most electric backcourts in the Country with Boopie Miller leading the way, but his partners in crime Jaron Pierre and BJ Edwards are both equally able to create for themselves and others. The result is a top-20 offense that shares the rock, with all 5 starters averaging double figures. Lookout for FR Jaden Toombs as well as he’s growing into a bigger and bigger role as the season progresses, so if they can just start getting some stops they could be a real problem in March. They have wins over A&M and UNC so far, and while that’s not the strongest, I’ll reiterate, that goes a lot further this year at this stage in the season. They are missing the elite Q1(A) win, but again I don’t think that’ll be a requirement this year. They do still have home meetings with Louisville and NC State to help beef up the Q1 record, not to mention the road chances that abound. Their only game this week is one of the biggest they have left, a trip to the YUM Center in Louisville. Must watch ACC ball on Saturday.

Teetering: 

Virginia Tech (52)

Mike Young appears to be working with his best team in what is now his 7th season at the helm in Blacksburg. They are a force inside with guys like Hansberry, Gurdak and now a healthy Tobi Lawal. Plus, they have Greek transfer Neo Avdalas who has wowed at times as a 6’9″ point forward, and 5’10” energizer bunny Ben Hammond running the show now at the point. It’s a fun team, with a ton of promise, but they’ve suffered 3 heartbreaking defeats in ACC play to kind of stymy their season a bit. They lost to Wake, Stanford and SMU all on last second shots, a brutal highlight of those 3 consecutive shots is circulating for the sickos who enjoy that kind of thing. Still, they are hanging their hat on a triple OT W over Virginia and recently knocked off Syracuse in their building for a 2nd Q1 W. This thing has momentum, and with Tyler Johnson set to return soon as another backcourt piece, they’re getting healthy at the right time as the schedule is about to ramp up. They have Duke at home this week, with trips to NC State and Clemson up after that. This next couple of weeks is going to teach us a lot about these Hokies.

Stanford (72)

If we know anything about Kyle Smith it’s that he has a knack for finding talented guys from seemingly out of nowhere, with his latest discovery being FR phenom Ebuka Okorie. The 3-star recruit from New Hampshire has exploded onto the scene, averaging 22 ppg and serving as the clear straw that stirs the drink for this team as a true FR. In their big wins this year he has balled out, including 36 in a win over UNC, 31 vs VA Tech and 28 vs Louisville. They recently lost 2nd leading scorer Chisom Okpara, so that will be something to monitor, although it didn’t stop them from taking down the Tar Heels. The other thing to keep in mind with this resumé is they have 2 horrific losses, one Q3 and one Q4. They were early in the season to UNLV/Seattle, but that will weigh them down a bit and will require some extra good wins to offset. That also helps explain the poor NET ranking, making now a great time to point out the committee does not use NET as a way of placing teams, it’s all about wins and losses. To that point, a great start as they’re 6-2 in Q1/2, and with one of the hottest scorers in the country they are a threat to take down anyone (except Duke…). After the home loss to Cal this week will be big to bounce back as they head to Florida to take on Miami and Florida St, 2 more Q1/2 chances.

NC State (27)

Will Wade came into Raleigh and completely rebuilt this roster with hopes of a quick turnaround back to relevancy in the ACC. Until this last week, that was looking pretty bleak, as prized transfer addition Darrion Williams had struggled and they were 0’fer in their Q1 chances. That all changed when they went to Clemson and picked up a massive road win, giving them their 1st Q1 victory and hopefully making up for their recent inexcusable loss to GA Tech. They are the perfect definition for teetering, as just over half of brackets on Bracket Matrix have them in the field, so they certainly have work to do to feel safe come Selection Sunday. The good news for these ACC teams is the conference has much more meat on the bone when it comes to the schedule and getting Q1/2 chances compared to last year. They will get at least 4, maybe up to 6 more cracks at Q1 wins, so that 1-5 record is going to look much different come March. Either way, the move to Fire Keatts and bring in Wade just a year after the Final 4 run is trending toward a success, albeit too early to call. This week’s trip to Wake represents one of those Q1 chances, after what should be a home win over Syracuse, but both of those teams are also looking for big wins.

Miami (FL) (37)

The Miami Hurricanes are quietly putting together a nice season after spending a few years in the cellar after that 2023 Final 4 run. Jai Lucas has come in and seemingly brought some stability and consistency already in year 1, and having them 16-4, with more wins that each of the past 2 seasons already, you have to say it’s a success already. I think most fans would immediately recognize the top guys on this roster, as Reneau (Indiana), Donaldson (Michigan) and Washington (N. Mexico) were all very relevant a season ago and have come together and played really well so far. Now all of that glazing can’t go without mentioning the recent skid that saw them go to Clemson and lose (no real shame there) but then drop an inexcusable one to Florida St at home. That put me on alert, but I was encouraged again to see them follow that up with a road win over Syracuse. No panic from me yet on these Canes, but the reality is while the computers are high on them they have just 1 Q1 win @ Wake. Overall they are 4-3 in Q1/2, but you’re going to hear me pound this drum all throughout the Watch. If you want to be in the Dance you have to pick up a big time win at some point. I’m circling home dates with UNC and Louisville later on as prime chances, but they’ll need to stay focused until those come along, starting this week with fellow bubble teams Stanford and Cal coming in. Gotta hold serve.

Cal (55)

Cal has become another one of the surprising ACC teams that is feisty and clearly better than they were in Mark Madsen’s first 2 years here. They are a team of transfers, so credit to Madsen for gelling this group together and getting them to play pretty good defense, even if they struggle to get rebounds to finish possessions. They are also a very good 3 point shooting team, led by Dai Dai Ames and John Camden. They aren’t going to wow anyone but they have 2 wins over UCLA and UNC that stack up pretty nicely compared to some of these other bubble teams that haven’t been able to beat good teams. Add in the road W over Stanford and they have 3 Q1 wins. Their main issue was a pitiful non-con schedule that also included a rough looking loss to K-State, making them 0-1 in Q2. The committee has consistently pushed teams down a bit with bad non-con schedules the last couple of years, so they really do need to pick up a few more strong wins to make up for that. They still get SMU and Clemson at home which are great opportunities, but other than that it’s going to have to come on the road. It’s a great story, but they dug themselves a hole with that weak non-con. This week they head to Florida to play Florida St and Miami, the latter a gigantic bubble matchup with a Q1 W on the line. Others watch top-15 battles between titans, we go to the slums for bubble mania between Cal and Miami.

Outside Looking In:

Wake Forest (67)

Listen I know perfectly well this is a long shot but this is a classic example of what I want to do here, and that’s lay out every possible scenario. I can’t help but look at the way this Wake Forest team has played in Q1 games, combined with what they still have on the schedule, and not see the path. They have narrow losses to Michigan, Texas Tech, Miami and UNC. So while that resumé is ugly right now (3-9 Q1/2) they still get to host NC State, Louisville and Clemson. They likely need to win all 3 of those games, plus taking care of business in games they should win, but that path to getting to 3 or 4 Q1 wins and having a fighting chance is still there. As dark and perilous as it may be, if you’re a Demon Deacon fan out there now is the time to strap up because every game from this point forward is going to be critical. It starts this week with a trip to Pitt and then one of those premier chances with NC State coming to Winston-Salem. A 2-0 week and we’re cooking something up here with the Demon Deacons.

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–Big Ten–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Michigan St (9) 

Tom Izzo continues to do his thing in East Lansing as he has crafted yet another elite defensive team that is right on the edge of locking in their tournament spot in January. As a true college hoops fan, still getting to watch him do his thing is a joy, especially seeing a program that’s still recruiting and developing guys like Jaxon Kohler, Coen Carr and Jeremy Fears into really good Big 10 basketball players. I mean, Fears is one of the best PG’s in the country and collectively they’re #1 defensively and top-10 on the offensive glass. They don’t have a special offensive talent like they did last year with Jase Richardson, but that hasn’t stopped them from racking up 5 Q1 victories so far. The marquee game of the season is around the corner as well as they host in-state rival Michigan this Friday night. That’s the huge opportunity to just put the stamp on Sparty as a legit contender this year and an obvious top 2 or 3 seed in March. The only knock when stacked up against the upper echelon of teams is they don’t have that signature Q1(A) win, so a win over Michigan is just what they need to firmly enter that 1-2 seed conversation. All in all, we likely won’t be discussing them for long on the Watch, but had to get my Izzo thoughts in at least once.

 Illinois (6)

The story of 2025-26 Illinois has to begin with the FR phenom Keaton Wagler, who just became a household name with his record breaking 46 piece he dropped on Purdue. That gave the Illini their signature win, putting them firmly in the conversation in the Big Ten and should put them on the radar Nationally as well, as they have now ripped off 9 in a row with Wagler playing at a high level the entire way. Now, he isn’t averaging 40 a game by any means, but he’s the 12th most efficient player in the entire country as a true FR. Quite the story, and completely out of nowhere for a team that came into the season being talked about for all of their international talent. Turns out the 3-star kid from Kansas was going to steal the show, and now the Illini are up to 6 Q1 wins, with that road win vs Purdue the feather in their cap. They are well on their way to locking up, but with just 17 wins we have to see a few more before we can rule out a complete collapse. Another fun one is on deck this week as they head to undefeated Nebraska after a home tilt with Washington. 2 more wins and we can likely throw away the key.

Purdue (10)

The Boilers have hit a bit of snag of late after starting the year as the pre-season #1 team and getting off to a 17-1 start. That clearly wasn’t an accurate ranking, but the return of Braden Smith and Trey Kaufmann-Renn, plus some reinforcements, have clearly made them better than a year ago. They have already picked up 6 Q1 wins, including elite wins over Texas Tech, Alabama and Wisconsin all away from home. To be clear, I’m writing this shortly after the loss to Illinois that gave them back-to-back losses and their 2nd loss to a top-10 team at home. So, I’m here to say, while it may seem like the dreams are vanishing into the all too familiar void, it’s not panic time for folks in West Lafayette just yet. The Boilers are still sporting a strong resumé that has them in the 2-3 seed range in late January. A long way to go, with more measuring stick chances against some Big Ten powers yet ahead. They still get Michigan and Michigan St at home with a trip to Nebraska in there. It may sound perilous, but I think this veteran group will be hungry to prove they belong in the upper echelon of the sport. This week it’s a trip to Bloomington that is always tough and then a terrible Maryland team. Have to bounce back and get 2 big wins, which will help get them close to locking up as well.

Iowa (21)

These are not your father’s Iowa Hawkeyes, as gone are the days of the high tempo, electric offense that couldn’t stop a nose bleed teams we saw during Fran McCafferey’s reign in Iowa City. HC Ben McCollum has completely transformed the roster, along with the play style, as this Iowa group led by Bennett Stirtz wants to grind the tempo to a crawl and out execute you in the half court. So far, it has yielded fairly good results, but the new look Hawkeyes are a tricky resumé to place right now because they truly don’t have any elite wins. Sure they went to Bloomington and beat Indiana for a Q1 W, but they haven’t beaten a team inside the top-35. Conversely, 4 of their 5 losses are to top-10 Kenpom teams and the NET/Kenpom have them as a top-25 team. They appear to either be a prime candidate to knock off a big boy and go flying up the seed list or just a solid team that isn’t quite good enough to contend with those guys. The answer to that question will be the determining factor into whether we see a 6 or 7 seed Iowa or if we’re talking about these Hawkeyes all the way up to Selection Sunday. This next week is all about taking care of business, as they host USC and then go to a down Oregon, 2 Q2 games that you really need in order to avoid true bubble territory.

Teetering: 

Wisconsin (41)

This year’s Badgers got off to a clunky start at 7-4 by mid-December, but then they ripped off a 7-1 stretch including what has to be the best win of any team on the Watch as they went to Ann Arbor and beat Michigan. The hype train had the brakes slammed on it yesterday though as they lost a home game to USC, a Q2 loss that makes everyone take breath. We’ll assume that was just a minor bump in the road, but it certainly go my attention and cooled my tone for this blurb. The duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd are still leading the way for a new look Wisconsin team that is filling it up offensively but struggling to get stops. Not quite the recipe we’ve been used to with a Greg Gard led team but they’re 6-6 in Q1/2 which has them firmly in the 8-9 seed range. Their issue is mainly the 1-5 Q1 record, but again when that 1 is a road win over #2 ranked Michigan you certainly feel confident. I still think they’ll need to add another quality win or 2 to truly feel safe, and they’ll have prime chances with Michigan St and Iowa both coming to the Kohl Center in February. Of course they’ll have plenty of road chances as well, but however it comes I can guarantee you it will be an uneasy feeling without that Q1 win total getting to 3 or 4 by Selection Sunday. This week they need to bounce back, with home matchups with Minnesota and Ohio St just what the doctor ordered.

USC (51)

The Muss Buss seemed like it was headed off the edge of a cliff until yesterday when they went into Madison and picked up their best win of the season over the Badgers. Up to that point they had lost 4 out of 6 with the 2 wins not carrying much weight as they dropped from firmly in to right square on the bubble. That win gives them some breathing room as it gives them their 1st Q1 win to go with 6 in Q2. Right now they are just a 2 headed monster with Chad Baker-Mazara and Ezra Ausar having to take the reigns after Rodney Rice went down for the season in November. They did recently get FR Alijah Arenas into the lineup though and he started against Wisconsin, so there could be some juice now with his addition. I was at the door ready to fully exit the Muss Buss this year and then they go and do what they did yesterday. Now I must sit back down and see what might be coming around the corner as they go to Iowa on Tuesday with a chance to make another statement. A loss there won’t expire all hope, they’ll just need to bounce back and beat Rutgers to hold serve. I was prepared to say it’s getting close to do or die time, but right now they can kind of stand pat a little because at 7-5 in Q1/2 they should be considered solidly in, albeit close.

UCLA (42)

The Bruins are quietly heating up here as of late, winners of 4 of their last 5, including the signature win vs Purdue this past week which got them onto the right side of things. The resumé itself isn’t that strong overall, just 4-6 in Q1/2, but that elite win elevates them above a lot of these bubble teams that are sitting on maybe 1 or 2 wins even in the top-50. It feels like after some friction early on, Mick Cronin has finally gotten this group to gel a bit, with Donovan Dent starting to find his way offensively. They still aren’t the usual defensive stalwarts we see under Cronin which I’m sure is driving him crazy, among a host of other things we continue to hear about. Nevertheless, these Bruins are looking like they’ve turned a corner, and with 3 home games in a row after their trip to a down Oregon this week, I’d be shocked if we don’t see them rip off 4 more in a row and really start hitting their stride. The schedule is going to toughen up though after that, and given the just 1 strong win we’re going to need to see them knock off another big boy to really feel comfortable by Selection Sunday. Until then though they just have to avoid disaster and win the games they’re supposed to.

Ohio St (36) 

Ohio St right now is one of those rare teams where it’s pretty cut and dry who they are. A solid team that just hasn’t had the goods to beat great teams this year. They have a big 3 that lead the way for them as Bruce Thornton, John Mobley and Devin Royal have to be great for them to have a chance, especially since they can’t get stops. Their best win to date is a road win over Northwestern that is barely qualifying as a Q1 win, with Q2 wins vs UCLA and on a neutral site vs WVU being right behind. That’s not a strong group of wins, which is why they find themselves seesawing from Last 4 In and First 4 Out. Not a comfortable place to be in, but certainly encouraging to be at least in the mix considering they’ve missed the dance entirely the last 3 seasons. They have at least 6 more Q-1 chances, but you better believe if they’re just 1-11 or even 2-10 in Q1 they will be NIT bound. They are one of those teams that have to be big game hunting, as they need that signature win or 2 to bring to the table on Selection Sunday. Unfortunately, it’ll have to be on the road unless they plan to knock off Michigan or Purdue at home, which is possible but I like their odds at Wisconsin or Iowa for example. Either way, what needs done is clear, and we’ll be here to see if they can get it done.

Outside Looking In:

Indiana (35)

The Hoosiers in year 1 under Darian DeVries are an even more extreme version of the Buckeyes as they just haven’t been able to actually beat a good team. They are well thought of by the computers, but their best win right now is a home W over Washington which qualifies as their only Q2 win to go with an 0-6 Q1 record. While I give credit to Coach DeVries bringing in guys like Wilkerson and Conerway to pair with his son Tucker, they simply haven’t gotten it done when it matters most. They have fully embodied the “live by the 3 die by the 3” mantra, all while struggling on D against top competition. They essentially have to get hot from outside to even have a chance against high level teams. The good news is they still have opportunities ahead, including a massive one this week with Purdue coming in. They’ll hope the magic of the rivalry will inspire some hot shooting as a W over Purdue would be just the win they need to catapult them into more serious consideration. As of now, they’re not particularly close, but in a year with a weak bubble it only takes a couple big wins to flip this thing around.

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–Big 12–

Locks: 

On the Right Track:

Iowa St (7)

After a brief hiccup the Cyclones have steadied the ship after a quick 2 game skid that saw them lose in blowout fashion in Allen Fieldhouse and then get stunned by .500 Cincinnati. The latter was the eye opening one, especially for a team that had prognosticators discussing if they were among the best in the sport in the weeks prior. I don’t think many jumped off them, but those considering it surely feel better after watching them thump UCF and Oklahoma St this past week. It appears maybe they got a bit big for their britches and a couple of poundings snapped them back into focus. That’s my takeaway at least, and for a veteran group with a HC and names we all know, that kind of resting on your laurels stretch in January is not uncommon. This resumé is about as good as it gets, as they hover on the 2/3 line with a couple others as it could go either way. They are among the next in line to be locked, and if they go another week of pummeling teams they should (Colorado/Kansas St), then we should feel confident at 20-2 with a 10-2 Q1/2 record they can join the illustrious group of locked in teams. Or we’ll find out that little blip was a bigger red flag than I gave it credit for.

Houston (11)

Not so fast my friends! Just as the whole country was starting to buy back in on the #2 pre-season ranked Houston Cougars they went to Texas Tech and dropped a tough one. Now, I don’t think by any means that made them a bubble team, but it kept me from locking them up as they only have just 4 Q1 wins with only 1 of the Q1(A) variety. That slid them down to the 3 line by my estimation, as it’s incredibly competitive for the top 2 seeds right now. I still think that by Kelvin Sampson’s standards they have a ways to go, but it also might be true with these FR, they might just not have it in them to be as suffocating on D as we’re used to. The good news is they’re balancing that regression with some explosiveness offensively, mostly due to the FR phenom Kingston Flemings who had 42 points in the loss. He is a hooper and with a fearless guard like him, if they can just click on defense a little better they will become a scary opponent once again. Their bounce back spot is a trip to Ft. Worth to take on a desperate TCU team, but if I know Coach Sampson (not personally of course) then they’ll be locked in defensively trying to make up for allowing 90 points to the Red Raiders. I would not want to be TCU facing Houston in this spot. We’ll see if my instincts are on point, but regardless of how they do it, if they go 2-0 this week this will be the only time we discuss Houston here on the Watch.

Texas Tech (18)

Heard ya loud and clear Red Raiders. This Texas Tech team just welcomed Houston to Lubbock and enacted their revenge as they knocked off the Cougars after falling at their place a few weeks back. That gives Tech their 3rd win over top-12 NET teams (Duke/BYU the other 2). That trio of wins is as good as it gets in the country, and their 4 losses are all of elite variety as well. They are 13-0 outside of Q1(A), as squeaky clean as a resumé can get. The only thing working against them is there are so many teams ahead of them with 0-2 losses that they’re buried a bit down the seed line in the 3-4 range. It’s tough sledding up there at the top of the seed list, but they’re clearly running on all cylinders as the sharpshooters are hitting with regularity and opening things up for big man JT Toppin inside. Quite the recipe for success, and it’s powering them on this 9-1 stretch that has seen them pick up all of those elite wins. I’m not sure if anyone is talking about them among the upper echelon of the sport, but the way they’ve been playing it would be a disservice not to be. They have a bit of a break and play just once this week @ UCF. A loss there would make me eat crow, but nevertheless I’m going to ride the wave they’re taking me on.

BYU (12)

BYU has become quite the force since joining the Big 12 and now in year 2 under Kevin Young they have what is likely their best team in school history. They are of course led by AJ Dybantsa who we all know at this point, but the backcourt duo of Richie Saunders and Rob Wright cannot be overlooked. All 3 average between 17 and 22 ppg, giving them probably the strongest trio in the country offensively. Having that top end talent certainly makes them a player, but we’ve already seen how it can be a bit of a hindrance to be so reliant on just a few guys. In the recent loss to Texas Tech they got just 12 points from the ancillary guys, not going to cut it. That speaks to the weakness of their overall resumé as well as they have 4 Q1 wins but none of them are against top-30 opponents as they’re 0-2 in those spots. Are they good enough to truly contend with and beat the big boys? We’re going to find out soon enough, and while that may not be required for them to get locked up eventually, it will probably keep them on the Watch a bit longer if they can’t pick up those kind of wins. They host Arizona/Kansas this week and then go to Houston next week. Play time is over, time to see how these Cougars truly stack up.

Kansas (15)

Is Darryn Peterson healthy and playing? That’s the defining question for the Jayhawks’ season so far, and while it hasn’t been a total disaster when he’s not in there, the mysterious nature of his lineup inclusion/absence has made this essentially the only thing people are talking about. That and the fact he could be the #1 pick in the draft and is as fun a watch as the sport has to offer. The relevant news for the tournament and seeding is that they’ve acquitted themselves well in his abcense, going 6-2 in those games including the Q1 win over Tennessee. With him, it looks like they could be one of the more dangerous teams in the tourney, with the size and athleticism to be lock down defensively. The ancillary guys have also gotten better around Peterson, so if he can get healthy again I would not want to see the Jayhawks in March. Overall they are in solid shape, with 3 Q1(A) wins and a 10-5 Q1/2 record. It also sounds like Bill Self believes there’s a chance Peterson is back for their lone test this next week, a massive one @ BYU. A huge litmus test if he’s fully healthy, and must watch TV with the presumptive top-2 picks going head-to-head.

UCF (38)

UCF has made just 1 NCAA tourney appearance over the last 21 seasons, and it’s been 7 years since that run with Tacko Fall and the boys got to the 2nd round. So it’s with that in mind that we discuss a team rarely on the Bubble Watch over the last few years. Johnny Dawkins is still running the show and he has a guard duo in Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks, the latter being one of the best PGs in the Country that seemingly nobody would know about. Those two running the show have given the Knights enough juice to knock off Kansas at home and A&M on the road. That gives them 2 Q1 wins in a year where that can separate you a bit from the true bubble cut line at this stage. Overall they have no bad losses, so they’ll have their target set on some of the top contenders in this conference as they’ll need to pick up a couple more big wins to really feel comfortable. That can all start this week as they host Texas Tech after what needs to be a home win over Arizona St. A 2-0 week would really create some separation, but a 1-1 or even worse 0-2, week would make them feel a lot more bubbly.

Teetering: N/A

Outside Looking In:

TCU (44)

The Horned Frogs opened this season with a loss to 223rd ranked New Orleans, suffice to say it’s surprising to find them in a position to be in the bubble conversation. Jamie Dixon has built this roster with a blend of returning SO’s from last year’s recruiting class and a group of transfers, with JUCO transfer Xavier Edmonds the biggest surprise story of them all. He, along with David Punch, are leading the way on offense, and that strength inside has allowed them to rack up impressive wins over Florida/Wisconsin and a sweep of Baylor. That is good for 3 Q1 wins, helping to make up for the aforementioned bad loss along with the ND loss at home that is an additional black stain. They have a bit of the Stanford condition going on as they have horrific losses but solid group of wins that is keeping them in the mix. The committee has historically been willing to overlook a couple bad losses, so long as they were early enough in the season and you have the goods in Q1 to make up for it. I don’t think they’re quite there yet but it’s getting closer. The good news, they host Houston this week which is a great opportunity to cement themselves as for real. A loss will keep them on the wrong side of the bubble, and a tricky trip to Colorado follows that one so a massive swing week as 2-0 and 0-2 look far different.

West Virginia (65)

This West Virginia group has come out the woodwork recently as they’ve gone on a 4-2 spurt that included a home win over Kansas. The big story of the off-season was new HC Ross Hodge landing Trey Eaglestaff from North Dakota. It has been kind of forgotten about as a story early in the season though, as he struggled to adjust, but as of late he’s been red hot shooting almost 48% from 3 in Big 12 play. He’s been the catalyst, and that kind of win over the Jayhawks is good enough to get you on the radar this year. while the Q1/2 record is a measly 2-7, we’re here to lay out the path. They have at least 5 more Q1 chances with several more in Q2, so the opportunity to get hot and vastly improve their position is clearly there. This week they just need to take care of business as they host K-State and then Baylor. Those 2 wins would only add 1 Q2 win, but every win is going to be huge going forward so they absolutely have to go 2-0 this week to stay in the conversation. It’s an uphill battle, but the way they’ve been playing I couldn’t leave them off the Watch.

Oklahoma St (73)

This is one where I feel obligated to include the Pokes but in reality I feel their most recent 2-5 stretch since Big 12 play got going is more reflective of who they are. They got out to a 12-1 start, including a win over Texas A&M that has aged well, but at the time they weren’t playing well and even with that they still have 0 Q1 wins after a rather pathetic non-con SOS. In theory yes they very much have a path, and credit can go to Steve Lutz in year 2 to at least have gotten them up off the mat and into this position. They also very well could prove me wrong and beat some of the top contenders in the Big 12 down the stretch, but they’re going to have to grab at least 3 maybe 4 high quality wins to feel comfortable with the SOS numbers they have. The computers have them pretty accurately pegged in my book, as they feel perfectly average. Capable of beating bad teams and then they get smoked by the top dogs. That’s the beauty of the Watch though, as we’re going to track them regardless of what the odds may say, because certainly in this bubble environment if they were to knock off BYU next week in Stillwater they’d be right in the mix and a giant egg would be on my face.

Baylor (59)

Baylor has been a mess lately, going just 1-6 in Big 12 play, so if you’re shocked to even see them on here I wouldn’t blame you. Here’s what I know though, this team has talent and Scott Drew can coach. Those things combined with a resumé that has 4 Q1/2 wins and strong SOS numbers the season is certainly salvageable. Do I have much confidence that it will happen? Not really, especially with how dreadful they have been defensively. I mean they lost back-to-back home games to Texas Tech and TCU giving up over 90 each game. Hardly a confidence booster. It essentially comes down to this week as they go to Cincy and W. Virginia. Lose both of those and we are done with this year’s Baylor Bears, which could mean the first missed tourney for Drew since 2018. However, if they can bounce back and pick up 2 Q1 wins all of a sudden they’re back in this thing. It’s a back against the wall, season on the line type of week where we’re going to find out if he has truly lost the locker room or not. Have these guys just moved on to next year? Planning their move to the portal or the NBA? Or is it possible they have an ounce of pride and can come together to resurrect this thing?

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–Big East–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

St. John’s (25)

It hasn’t always been pretty but Rick Pitino seems to have gotten this overhauled roster playing much closer to his standard as they’ve ripped off 6 in a row since the ugly loss to Providence in the Garden. He has now started 9 different guys so far this year, with the latest addition of Dillon Mitchell seeming to have a huge positive impact as he’s been dominant of late. The main idea here is Pitino brought in a ton of talent via the portal, but struggled early to find the right pieces that would gel together the best. While he hasn’t been shy about his desire to build his roster only through the portal, we’ve seen the struggles that can bring trying to bring 10 random kids to a place and fit them together. The resumé overall isn’t super strong, with a road win over 34th ranked Nova the best win, but this year 3-4 in Q1 and 7-4 overall Q1/2 is good enough to have them in the 6/7 range and pretty safely in. Still, there is work to be done as you really don’t want to enter Selection Sunday with this little to bring to the table as far as high quality wins. This week they host Butler and go to DePaul, 2 Q2 games you simply need to have to keep this thing rolling. Then UConn comes to town, one the whole college hoops world has circled.

Villanova (34)

At this point we can confidently say Nova is the surprise of the season in the Big East, as the roster for Kevin Willard in year 1 didn’t exactly jump off the page, but they’re clearly the 3rd best team in the Big East this year. They’re a balanced team with 6 guys averaging double figures so it’s not like Willard just leaned on one big portal grab, it’s a team full of guys who are buying what he is selling and playing together. They just took UConn to OT, falling on the road, but that shows you what stuff they’re made of being able to take the clear top dog in this conference to the brink. Their main issue, which is the issue of many bubble teams right now is the lack of a top tier win, as the best one is on a neutral court vs Wisconsin. This is a year where 1 truly great win could be a separator, so for them it’s going to be about big game hunting, with UConn coming to PA and then a trip to St. John’s being the marquee chances. If they don’t get either of those, I would imagine this is going to be close as we come down the stretch. They’ll play just one time until we meet again and that’s at home vs Providence, simply a must win as they can’t afford to add an ugly Q3 loss to what is already a paltry 4-5 Q1/2 record.

Teetering:

Seton Hall (56)

The Pirates are in total free fall right now as they’ve lost 4 Big East games in a row, with the latest loss to DePaul the real red flag that this thing may be off the rails. For the first 16 games it looked like Shaheen Holloway had put together a grind it out team that could be a nightmare in March. At this point though it looks like their struggles offensively are being exposed, especially after losses to Butler and DePaul. They are still a top-10 defensive team in the Country, there’s just not enough punch on the other end for them to win consistently. The good news for them is they get Xavier and Marquette at home this week, 2 games they absolutely have to have if they want to stay out of the danger zone. They have plenty of road opportunities to pick up Q1 wins down the stretch, and they’ll certainly need to improve their pedestrian 1-2 record in that category. I would have them right on the edge right now, either Last 4 In or First 4 out, so this week is absolutely critical for them. We’ll see if they can turn this ship around.

Outside Looking In:

Creighton (61)

This Creighton group has been a bit of a thud this year, as they came into the season top-25 and with some legitimate hope for another great year under McDermott. They started out just 5-5, losing to essentially every good team they played, while beating up on low major opponents. Then McDermott starting shuffling things around, mainly moving Owen Freeman to the bench for stretch big Traudt and inserting Austin Swartz into the starting lineup. Since then things have clicked, at least offensively, with Swartz leading them in scoring in Big East play at 17 ppg, including the game winner the other night vs Xavier. The 7-3 record since that rough start is why they’re still alive and on the Watch, because they are pretty far out of it at just 3-8 in Q1/2, but with a road win over top-25 Villanova as the feather in their cap right now, the path is still there. They host UConn this week after a trip to Marquette. Have to beat this year’s Golden Eagles, which would set them up for a season altering win if they can knock off the Huskies. I’m not predicting it, but if they do in fact go 2-0 this week they would be right near the cut line, with more opportunities to come. The odds are low, but if it does happen I at least want to be along for the ride from the beginning.

Butler (50)

Right now Butler is a bit of a long shot but the win last week @ Seton Hall gave them a 2nd Q1 win to add to the increasingly impressive win over Virginia in non-con play. As someone from Indiana who lived through the Brad Stevens era as I fell in love with college hoops, I have some bias here when it comes to rooting for Butler to get back in the mix. Thad has done a decent job here, especially considering the resources he has to work with, as this group has a mix of transfers and rising recruits Thad is developing. Gonzaga transfer Michael Ajayi is leading the way along with Maryland transfer Jamie Kaiser, but the guys like Bizjack, Haywood and Robinson are all Matta recruits making an impact. I’m not trying to sell this Butler team as a contender to make a deep run, but I do think they have a real shot to work themselves onto the right side of the bubble. This 3 game win streak has been huge, but they need to strike on their opportunities the rest of the way, especially at home as they host UConn/Creighton/Seton Hall still. They won’t have many Q1 chances, but if they can get to 3 or 4 Q1 wins and flip that Q2 record above .500, they’ll be right in the mix. That’s the path, albeit windy and full of peril, it still exists, and I will cling to it til there’s absolutely no way through.

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–SEC–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Arkansas (20)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. John Calipari is up at the top of the SEC with a team led by a couple of special FR. Yeah, maybe now it’s being done in red instead of blue, but it’s the same old story as Cal continues to recruit at an elite level and develop young kids into great college players. It goes beyond the special FR Acuff and Thomas, as the returning duo of Knox and Richmond were 2 of Cal’s big gets last year in year 1 in Fayetteville. So, whatever you may think of him, you have to admit he’s pretty good at this. These young Razorbacks are scoring at an elite level, and now have surged up to as high as a 4 seed in projections behind 4 Q1 wins, including the 2 elite wins over Vandy and Texas Tech. They obviously have a ways to go defensively, but with the special talents they have in the backcourt they have enough to firepower to win the SEC this year as it’s wide open at the top. They have a big trap game with a stop in Norman this week that is the precursor to a gigantic one as Cal’s old team Kentucky comes to town. Can’t get caught napping in the SEC, so ideally we’re back here with Arkansas 17-5 and on the verge of locking. But something tells me at least one of these games this week is going to be testy.

Vanderbilt (13)

For 16 games Mark Byington and the Commodores were right there with Nebraska as the lead story in college basketball, then they dropped 3 games in a row. The question for a long time was if Vandy was for real, or if that 14, 15, then 16-0 start was just a mirage? Well, the losses to Texas, Florida and then Arkansas in blowout fashion certainly had critics patting themselves on the back for calling out the fraudulent nature of the Dores. Saturday they appeared to take out some frustration as they ended that 3 game slide with a 32 point drubbing of Mississippi St. The real story in my book was the rise of 3 star Sophomore PG Tyler Tanner who has come out of nowhere to be on of the best PGs in the country. Whether or not Vandy is the best team in the SEC is yet to be determined, but they are still in a strong position resumé wise with 4 Q1 wins and a 10-3 total record in Q1/2. They will hope the bounce back win was enough to wash the stink off, as they host a red hot Kentucky team this week and then go to a desperate Ole Miss team. Big week to prove that was just a minor hiccup and not a sign of things to come in Nashville.

Alabama (22)

The Tide have been making headlines for all the wrong reasons this year, but I’m just gonna focus on the ball and not the fact they added a G-league player midseason. Whether or not you agree, the need for Charles Bediako has been obvious all season as the Tide have been their usual selves offensively but inside they have really struggled to rebound and defend. It’s hard to know what is going to happen with the committee if Bediako plays all year, but considering they are now 0-1 with him playing I don’t think it’s going to make a major impact in terms of results on the floor. They have essentially been the same team year after year with Nate Oats running the show, as they play lightning fast, launching the first open 3 they generate and then generally struggle to get stops. That’s them again this year, and that lack of defensive might has been the reason they have lost 5 Q1 games. All of that said, comparatively they have a solid resumé, as they’re 8-6 in Q1/2, they just are down near the 4/5 seed line at this stage. They have another massive test Saturday as they head to Florida, but first they have to take care of a pesky Mizzou team at home.

Florida (16)

The defending champs are going through some big time struggles this year, and while that may be a bit hyperbolic for a team around a 5 seed right now, relative to expectations I think it’s fair. They came into the season repping one of the strongest front courts in the Country, with guys like Chinyelu/Condon/Haugh all returning. The question was how they were going to replace their star guards that graduated, and HC Todd Golden went to the portal and landed what everyone thought were 2 great replacements in Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee. Those 2 guys have struggled mightily to knock down shots, with the results being the Gators ranking 348th in 3 point % after being 82nd last year. That led to just a 5-4 start, but they then went 9-1 over the next 10 as they seemed to turn the corner. Then came Saturday when they lost at home to Auburn. Can you make any sense of this team? I certainly can’t seem to, but at the end of the day we’re worried about teams making and missing the dance, and right now they’ve done enough to be comfortably in. They need to bounce back from that surprising loss though, and while a trip to lowly S. Carolina won’t do much for the resumé it can be a great confidence boost to drop the hammer on a team. Then they host Bama in a big test for both. 2 wins and we’ll be putting some of that doubt to rest.

Tennessee (24)

The Vols are all over the place this year, as one night they look pedestrian and the next they go to Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama. Much of it is likely due to the roster turnover and the difficulty of gelling so many new guys that comes with that. The other obstacle has been they really only have 2 consistent guys offensively in Gillespie and the FR Ament. Outside of those 2 scoring has been a challenge, and since they haven’t been the kind of stifling defense that we’ve seen under Barnes they’ve struggled when those 2 aren’t rolling. Big picture that road win over Bama was massive in giving them some breathing room between them and the real bubble, as they now have 3 Q1 wins and 2 in the Q1(A) category (Houston/Bama). That collection of wins is strong enough now, but they will need to keep adding in order to feel totally comfortable, and they’ll have plenty of chances to do so in the SEC. This week it starts with a trip to Georgia and then they host Auburn. 2 more Q1 chances and a week in general that could shed some light on who exactly these Vols are. Or we may just see the roller coaster continue if they split.

Kentucky (28)

The night of Wednesday January 7th was as a low a point for Kentucky basketball as we’ve seen in a long time as they dropped a home game vs Mizzou to drop to 9-6. Credit to Mark Pope, because BBN was shining up the pitch forks and he has gotten this team to respond by winning 5 straight games to get this train back on the tracks. Pope has had to navigate injuries and poor play, exemplified by the fact he’s started 11 different guys this year. Yes, you read that right, 11 different starters as everyone who has played and contributed besides Jasper Johnson has started at least once. I have no idea where he will settle, but the core of Aberdeen, Oweh and Moreno are clearly the leaders and whatever switch was flipped on that dark night seems to have made a big impact. This run has seen them improve from 2-6 in Q1/2 to 5-6, putting big separation between them and the teams near the cut line. Now, this is about to be the toughest week on the schedule for UK as they go to Vandy and Arkansas. So I’m telling you now I won’t be hitting the panic button if they drop 2 in a row, but if they do happen to steal one of those I will really start to buy them as a rising contender. A very interesting week to see how far this group really has come.

Auburn (29)

It has been a rocky road to get here but War Eagle is being cried with pride again as the group is starting to click and rack up big time wins in a hurry. They started the season just 9-6, but it was against a difficult schedule, with a rebuilt roster and bye the way they changed HC’s right before the season started as son Steven took over for his dad as Bruce Pearl retired. Quite a way to enter the season, and as rough as it looked at times they have seemingly turned a corner as they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games, including a home win over Arkansas and the most recent statement win @ Florida. They are clearly starting to gel and learn how to play together, and it certainly helps to have a guy like Keyshawn Hall scoring over 20 points a night. Overall they are now up to 4 Q1 wins, and while the 5-7 Q1/2 record doesn’t seem strong having 2 Q1(A) wins over Florida and St. John’s is a gigantic separator from the actual bubble cut line. They are hovering somewhere around the 7-8 seed line and barring some sort of reversal in quality of play look to be a solid bet to be in the tournament and a dangerous team with the firepower they have. This week they host Texas and then head to Tennessee, a chance to pick up at least one if not two Q1/2 victories, but it won’t come easy.

Teetering:

Texas A&M (40)

Bucky ball is alive and well in College Station, but I bet even he would’ve been skeptical of the idea they could be leading the SEC outright at almost the halfway point in conference play. They play small, fast and launch 3’s. That’s Bucky ball baby. They may not have the top end names we would expect to see, but credit to McMillan for finding guys to fit his style and getting them to gel and play this well. Some may doubt them the way they doubted Vandy, but how can you really say that at this point when they’re sitting at 6-1 in the SEC? You could criticize the schedule, but they’ve beaten Auburn and Texas on the road, nothing to scoff at. It really doesn’t seem like there’s a dominate team in the league, so at this point it seems they have as good a chance as anyone to win it. So far the resumé doesn’t have that strong signature win at the top, but they do technically have 2 Q1(A) wins despite being just 5-4 overall in Q1/2. The SOS numbers are the issue, but I don’t see long term that being too much of a hindrance with 11 more SEC games to go. They only play once this week and it’s a trip to Georgia, so we may have a bit of different tone next week if that goes south. If they win however I think it’ll really be time for people to start paying attention to the Aggies.

Georgia (32)

Mike White has been slowly turning things around here and this looks to be his best team yet, with a chance to get to back-to-back tourney’s for the first time since ’01-’02, also the last time they won a game in March. Now, on the surface you would look at Georgia and see a 16-4 SEC team and likely assume they are pretty comfortably in the field at this stage. That’s not what I’m seeing, as the Dawgs played a very weak non-con, losing their lone Q1 game vs Clemson. The have picked up 3 Q1 wins in SEC play, so that has gotten them in, but they also picked up a Q3 loss to Ole Miss and have yet to win a Q1(A) game. I’m looking at this next week as a prove it week for UGA as they have back-to-back home games with Tennessee and A&M. Those are two teams capable of going into Athens and winning, so you would like to see a legit team hold on to home court against solid but not elite teams. This is especially true since they just lost to Texas by 20, a game in which they led by 8 at half, losing the 2nd half 57-30. Brutal, and a result that can not just expose cracks but fully bust apart foundation. All about how you respond this time of year.

Missouri (68)

Unlike many other teams on the Watch Mizzou doesn’t have much issue with taking on the big boys and coming away with a dub. It just so happens they also are capable of losing to just about anybody as well. That leaves them in the Stanford/TCU category where they play to the level of their competition and lose to teams like Notre Dame and LSU but also have wins over Florida/Kentucky/Auburn. In number form, that gives them a better Q1 record 3-3 than Q2 record 1-3. There’s also the issue that the played a horrifically bas non-con schedule that gave them virtually 0 opportunities to show anything. That kind of scheduling usually gets hammered by the committee, so while I love that every game they play is seemingly close, they are going to have to come out on top with more regularity if they want to flip to the right side of the bubble. They have a tough trip to Tuscaloosa to face Bama off a loss next, and then they host Mississippi St. Has to be at worst a 1-1 week to stay firmly in the mix. Although knowing these Missouri Tigers we’re just as likely to see that loss be @ Bama as vs Mississippi St. That pretty much sums up who they are, or at least who they have been so far.

Texas (39)

Year 1 under Sean Miller has been a topsy turvy ride as he has had to try and find the right combo of these transfers to get the job done. They have become a really good offensive unit, behind the 7 foot Lithuanian Vokietaitis as well as Dailyn Swain they have risen to just outside the top-10 in offensive efficiency. Their issues have been on the other end of the floor, which has been mired by inconsistency and led to their bad losses to Mississippi St and Arizona St. The good news for them is they’ve gotten rolling a bit lately, picking up wins over Bama and Vandy to add to the non-con win over NC State. The resumé is taking shape, but there’s still work to be done as they are somewhere around the First 4 Out as of the latest Bracket Matrix update. This week offers up a Q1 and Q2 road chance as they head to Auburn and then Oklahoma. I would think they at least need to beat the Sooners to stay at or near the cut line, as an 0-2 week would drop them to just 4-9 Q1/2. Life on the bubble is not easy, and a week like this in the SEC is a fantastic example of that.

Outside Looking In:

LSU (46)

There hasn’t been much success for Matt McMahon here in Baton Rouge, as we’re now in the midst of year 4 and they’re off to a 1-6 start in Conference play. That being said they entered January 12-1 with a Q1 win over SMU, so they’ve been on the radar the entire way, but it’s slipping fast. I honestly don’t see it turning around all that much, but 6 of their 7 losses are Q1 and they’re going to have plenty of chances to rack up quality wins if they can play better. The analytics don’t point to any strength they can lean on, as they’re essentially just an average team. Looking ahead though is why we’re doing this, and they have 3 out of their next 4 at home with the road trip to S. Carolina being very winnable as well. If they go and win 4 in a row, including home wins over Georgia and Arkansas then they’re on the fast track to punching a ticket to the dance for the first time under McMahon. I am not confident it will come to fruition but certainly you’d hope this week they could beat Mississippi St at home and then they have to survive the Gamecocks on the road. That sets up what would be the most important week of the season after that. For some teams March has all the stakes, but for this year’s LSU go time is now.

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–Mountain West–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Utah St (26)

The Utah St athletic program has an uncanny ability to identify and hire rising head coaches, and after sending Craig Smith to Utah, Ryan Odom now at Virginia and then Danny Sprinkle to Washington, I can only think, where will Jerrod Calhoun end up? The impressive part even beyond that is they’ve made the dance in 6 of the 7 years under 4 different HC’s and look poised to make that 7/8 in Calhoun’s 2nd season. Calhoun’s Aggies have plenty of contributors, but they’re really a 2 headed monster behind familiar face Mason Falslev and transfer MJ Collins. Both of them are 16-19 ppg and are the clear go-to guys, but collectively they’re making for a pretty good defensive unit as they’re top-10 in forcing TO’s. They just struggle on the glass a bit which is dragging that defensive efficiency number down. In terms of big time wins that’s where we start to lose the plot a bit, as they have just 1 Q1 win and it’s barely in there as a road win over Boise St (63). Overall the best team they’ve beaten per the NET is VCU (53). That makes it tough when arguing for at-large positioning. While the computer rankings like them, that can’t be all you have when you head to Selection Sunday. It may end up being the non-con simply wasn’t strong enough for the Aggies, but right now they’re closer to a St. Louis resumé than people probably realize. This week they have a chance to improve on that though as they get San Diego St, which would be the highest ranked team they’ve beaten. Critical for not only the conference race but for resumés as well.

San Diego St (47)

The San Diego St Aztecs out in the Mountain West are as reliable as that ’97 pickup your grandpa has out in the garage. Is it going to win a street race? Absolutely not, but it’s going to get the job done and deliver the type of nostalgia that can’t be bought. The Aztecs under Dutcher give you that feeling, as you just expect a grind you down defensive team that is going to score just enough to get it done and land in the NCAA tournament. It was certainly off to a rough start this year, I mean they lost at home to Troy for crying out loud. However, since that 3-3 start they’ve gone 11-2, with wins over Boise/Nevada/New Mexico to take a stronghold on the conference lead. What they also have that the rest of the conference doesn’t is the strong non-con SOS, and while they didn’t win those top shelf games they will get credit from the committee for going out and playing them. They’ll need that credit, because similar to Utah St they only have 1 Q1 win that is barely qualifying with the road win over Nevada (73). Overall the New Mexico (43) win is their best, but suffice to say they need to stay hot and keep racking up wins as the Mountain West has very little to offer in terms of Q1 opportunities. This week does offer up one of those rare opportunities though as they head to Utah St. Win that and they’ve not only tightened their grip on the regular season title they position themselves very well for a tourney bid.

New Mexico (43)

Eric Olen has come over from UC San Diego and done a fantastic job keeping the Pitino inspired momentum rolling here for the Lobos. It’s a rag tag group that’s led by 2 freshmen, one stateside sniper Jake Hall and Croatian big man Tomislav Buljan who is one of the best rebounders in the sport. While it wasn’t the smoothest transition out of the gates (lost to New Mexico St early) they have bounced back and arguably have the best resumé of the MW teams due to the wins over Santa Clara (45) and VCU (53). Given the weak nature of the bubble this year I do think those are going to carry a lot of weight as strong non-con wins, they just have to pick up a few more Q1/2 wins to improve that 5-3 Q1/2 record. Right now they are pretty universally in that Last 4 In group, so the margins are razor thin and they’re working against the power conference teams who are getting top-50 chances left and right. They can’t afford to take on water with bad losses, and this week is fraught with those opportunities as they head to UNLV and San Jose St. Have to take care of business because the meat of the schedule is around the corner.

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–WCC–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Gonzaga (4)

Mark Few continues his run as one of the most consistent Head Coaches the sport has ever seen, as the Zags are once again up near the top. They have just 1 loss to Michigan, so really making the tournament is all about avoiding disaster down the stretch in the WCC. They have a buffer with those non-con wins over Bama, UK and UCLA, but the recent injury bug has thrown a bit of a wrench in things. It hasn’t been a total crowbar in the bike wheel, but losing Braden Huff for 4-8 weeks and then Graham Ike short term with an ankle sprain resulted in them going down to the wire with San Francisco the other night. I don’t think the committee would punish them too hard if they did stub their toe in this stretch without their two most important players, but they’d have to be confident both are back and healthy come Selection Sunday. Sounds like that will be the case, but they’ll certainly hope they can at least get Ike back for this Saturday’s matchup with St. Mary’s. These 2 facing off has been the most fun WCC rivalry over the years, and after the Gaels took 2 of 3 from them last year you know they’re going to be geared up for this one. Health is obviously a story, but the concerns around that would be quelled with a W over their biggest competition in conference.

Teetering:

Saint Mary’s (30)  

Just like we’ve become accustomed to seeing Gonzaga at the top of the WCC, it’s like an old familiar bedtime story to hear Randy Bennett and St. Mary’s are one step behind yet again. This year’s version of the Gaels are led by a dynamic trio of Paulas Marauskas, Mikey Lewis and Donovan Dent, all averaging at least 13 ppg. They aren’t quite as good as they’ve been in the past defensively, and that likely is why we see them struggling to pick up a Q1 win and lower in the NET. Right now their best win is a neutral site W over VA Tech which is right on the Q1/2 line. That certainly isn’t going to be enough in my estimation to get them into the dance, so grabbing a win over Gonzaga is going to be paramount if they want to get back to the dance. Fortunately the Zags are limping into the matchup on Saturday, so it’s as good a time as ever to pick them off and get that signature win to bring to the table on Selection Sunday. If they can’t go to Spokane and win for the 2nd year in a row then they’ll have to wait until the final game of the season when they host the Zags. A game that always carries massive stakes with even heightened importance? Sign me up.

Outside Looking In:

Santa Clara (45)

Herb Sendek has been knocking on the door in Santa Clara for a couple of year’s now and it looks like he may finally have the horses (broncos to be specific) to breakthrough and get to the dance. To put it in perspective they haven’t gone dancing since 1996. What a story it would be, and they’ve earned their way into this conversation with wins over St. Mary’s, McNeese and Nevada for 3 top-70 wins. That honestly puts them in a similar tier as the Mountain West teams in terms of resumé, and while the prognosticators don’t seem to have them there, I don’t think there’s any question they belong in that level of the conversation. Will this 3-bid WCC require Gonzaga to lose to both St. Mary’s and Santa Clara at some point? Probably, but given they’re beat up it feels like it’s as possible as it’s been since the days BYU was also in this mix. They have 5 more games against sub-100 teams that they need to take care of and then they host Gonzaga on February 14. It’s not often that a Santa Clara vs Gonzaga game will be must-watch TV, but with so much at stake for the Broncos you can bet my eyes will be fixated. The

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–A-10–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

St. Louis (19)

Once again we have Josh Schertz at the apex of the mid-major at-large debate as he has his new school following a very similar path as his 2024 Indiana St team did. Robbie Avila is a name we will all remember from that team and he’s still doing his thing for Schertz, but this team is deep and balanced, with 6 guys averaging double figures. They are also metric darlings, top-25 in NET, and have just 1 loss on a neutral site to Stanford. What that leads us to is Bracket Matrix composite having them an 8 seed despite their best win being over 45th NET ranked Santa Clara, and overall just a 2-1 record in Q1/2. As I have mentioned throughout the Watch, this is a weak year resumé wise on the bubble, but just as I was with Indiana St I am very pessimistic when it comes to believing the committee is going to reward a team who has just 1 win over a top-50 opponent and just 3 wins over top-100 teams. Do we really think they deserve to be over teams like Kentucky/Wisconsin/Auburn who have significantly better wins and equivalent or better losses (albeit more total)? We are going to be weighing in on this debate all season, knowing my position will make readers unhappy.I have to follow what history tells us though, as the committee has not been kind to teams with shiny records that don’t have a lot of meat on the Q1/2 bone. They can’t afford any major hiccups as we go, and certainly will need to capitalize on the few chances the A-10 is going to provide.

Outside Looking in:

VCU (54)

I look at VCU in a similar way as I do Utah St, just a program that can cycle through HC’s and always stay relevant in a way very few mid-major programs are able to do. After Ryan Odom took his talent to Virginia they simply went and Phil Martelli Jr after he took Bryant to the NCAA tourney. Year 1 got off to a rocky start, but it’s mostly due to the fact they went out and played a tough non-con schedule. Unfortunately they went 0-3 in Q1 chances and have followed that up in A-10 play by losing 2 of their very few Q1 chances in conference play. That puts them in a brutal situation, as a team with 0 Q1 wins is just simply not going to get in the dance. Now, they do have a neutral site win over VA Tech that could flip if the Hokies get inside the top-50, but if they want to have a legit shot at an at-large invite to the big show they need to find a way to win @ St. Louis as that’s their only Q1 shot left on the board. They don’t go to George Washington and Dayton is not going to qualify as Q1, so at this point that game on Feb 20 is looming large. Even still, in this year’s weak bubble they will remain in the conversation at 4-6 in Q1/2, especially since their non-con SOS is strong. You still would like to see them push it to .500 or better to build some confidence in an at-large bid. A 2 or 3 bid A-10 is on the table, but it is going to take near perfection from a couple of these teams, along with a continued weak bubble from the power conferences. Possible, but not all too probable.

George Mason (69)

George Mason stubbed their toe in a major way on Saturday as they had been cruising along with just 1 loss to VA Tech on the road and looking like they were 1 big win away from being a true contender for an at-large. The road loss to Rhode Island takes some shine off of this thing, especially with the dreadful SOS numbers and the lack of high quality wins. Right now they boast a home win over VCU, and not much else. Nevertheless, an 18-2 start deserves a spot on the watch and a shoutout must be made to Tony Skinn for getting them in this position in year 3. He has constructed this team almost exclusively through the portal after last year’s senior laden group won 15 league games. At this point getting the Patriots into the dance is all about the last week of the season, as barring an implosion they should set themselves up with 2 Q1 games to make or break their season. They go to VCU and then host St. Louis to finish off the regular season. If they were to run the table and then split those 2 games, or even win both, then we’d be talking legitimately about an at-large berth. That’s what it will take though, as the SOS is atrocious and going to the committee with a shiny record made up of primarily Q3/4 wins is not going to cut it. That’s a treacherous road requiring near perfection the rest of the way, but a path it is nonetheless.

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–Others–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Miami (OH) (48)

The emerging story of college basketball are your Miami RedHawks who have, seemingly out of nowhere, gotten off to a 20-0 start to this season. They are a very balanced group with 5 guys averaging double figures so credit to HC Travis Steele who has recruited and developed many of these guys, with only a couple of transfers who also were here last season. It’s a great mid-major story, and nice to see considering how top heavy the sport is feeling in the portal/NIL era. Now, I hate to take the air out of the balloon, but I’m sure you’re aware at this point the schedule is Charmin soft, which unfortunately is very bad news when it comes to evaluating them for an at-large spot. I have already heard the discussions beginning to take place about what would happen if they run the table and then lose in the MAC tourney. Similar to St. Louis, I have very little hope that the committee would give an at-large spot to a team without a top-50 win. They would have benefitted greatly from a trip to Akron, but unfortunately their only matchup with them was at home and is just a Q2 win. It would be an unprecedented resumé I will admit, but it is likely they would be stacked up next to high major teams who would likely have several top-50 wins. The only way I see it happening is if it’s a close loss to Akron, and even then they need the other bubble resumé’s to be weak. We’ll of course be tracking this week by week, but I know I’ll be rooting hard for the Miami (OH) at-large conversation to be moot come Selection Sunday.