The bubble is shrinking at an unprecedented rate, as teams like Butler/Washington saw their paths close up as they just couldn’t take advantage of opportunities. We also haven’t really had that classic power conference team get hot and start picking up win after win like we usually see this time of year, so we’re down to a group of power conference teams like Oklahoma St/Baylor/Missour in the Big 12/SEC and then the mid-majors like Santa Clara/St. Mary’s and San Diego St/New Mexico in the WCC/MWC who are jockeying for position this year. So, while the volume of teams who are still living with a realistic path to an at-large is a bit lower, the drama between those that remain certainly is as it always is. This past week teams like Oklahoma St and Indiana picked up big wins to surge forward, as pressure continues to mount on teams to capitalize on their Q1 chances. The common thread this year are the elusive Q1 wins, as the teams at the top of the sport are just rarely losing, just ask Ohio St or Virginia Tech. It’s rough out there, but what it also means is one huge win like the Cowboys got over BYU can send you flying up the seed list. That’s the drama we’re all looking for as we track the bubble, with 6 weeks to go until Selection Sunday. Let’s get it.
For those new here stick with me, as I explain more about what I’m doing, vets can skip ahead with the buttons below.
So, I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
I have provided below the Quadrant system to help contextualize what I’m referring to when discussing wins. Each conference has a table with the team’s resumé to reference at the beginning, for your own comparison, including the locks. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 62 teams on the Watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/2. Check out my current bracket projection here.
| Quadrant 1 (Q1) | Quadrant 2 (Q2) | Quadrant 3 (Q3) | Quadrant 4 (Q4) |
| Home (1-30) | Home (31-75) | Home (76-160) | Home (161-364) |
| Neutral (1-50) | Neutral (51-100) | Neutral (101-200) | Neutral (201-364) |
| Away (1-75) | Away (76-135) | Away (136-240) | Away (241-364) |
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 23
Locks: 13
Bids Left: 32
Bubble: 49
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Virginia (16)
The Hoos are knocking on the door of Lock status, and at 20-3 in the ACC we could probably put them there, but the overall resumé is still a bit lacking at the top end for me to get there just yet. They have just 4 Q1 wins, and while the 2-0 week this week was encouraging, beating Pitt and Syracuse at home this year really doesn’t add much other than avoiding bad losses. The defensive effort was encouraging after giving up 97 to Notre Dame the week prior, holding Pitt to 47 and Cuse to 59. I want to see them get through a tricky week this week though as they head to a pesky Florida St and then have Ohio St on a neutral court on Saturday. Right now they are a borderline 4-5 seed, even at 20-3 overall, so if they do drop 2 games right now they are by no means safe if they start to unravel. It’s unlikely, but again we’re just going to make them truly earn the lock as 4 Q1 wins is by no means a guarantee any given year, just ask the 2025 Indiana Hoosiers. Maybe that doubt is par for the course with this year’s Hoos, but considering they went to double OT to escape lowly Notre Dame, I think some discretion is acceptable for one more week.
Clemson (30)
Can someone out there start talking about what this Clemson team is doing right now? I feel like they are the least talked about team in the Country that is simply dominating game after game. They are now 13-1 in their last 14, with an OT loss the only blemish since the 3 point loss to BYU on Dec 9th. The knock will probably be they haven’t played Duke/UNC/Louisville, but still how many casual fans out there would be able to correctly say Duke is tied with Clemson atop the ACC right now at 10-1? I would guess very few, so I’m going to keep pounding the Clemson and Brad Brownell drum as every fan should at least acknowledge how difficult it is to go on this kind of run in a power conference. Now, it’s about to level up a bit as they do get those aforementioned 3 teams down the stretch, including a trip to Duke coming up this week. They first host VA Tech, so in my book a split this week would keep the train rolling as nobody has gone to Cameron Indoor and picked up a win, so a loss is by no means a bad thing. So, barring a shocking loss to the Hokies this train will keep on humming as they look poised to make a 3rd straight tourney after going just 3 times in Brownell’s first 13 seasons total.
Louisville (17)
This week was a nice bounce back for Louisville as they beat Notre Dame and Wake Forest to kind of get things rolling again after that jarring blowout at the hands of Duke last week. Mikel Brown seems to be still trying to find his footing, going 2-12 from 3 this week, but still his impact has been huge in terms of creating for the other shooters. This is going to be a big measuring stick week though for Louisville as they host a white hot NC State team and then go to Ft. Worth for an odd neutral site non-con game with Baylor who is desperate for a big time win. Right now they are in a solid position at 4-6 in Q1 with no bad losses, but if they fall to 4-8 this week we will start to have some serious questions as we hit the homestretch. They will have 4 more Q1 chances on deck after this week, all on the road, so 4-12 in Q1 is absolutely on the table. Would you want to enter Selection Sunday with that record, especially given it would be 9 losses in a row in that category? Put it that way and all of a sudden the home and neutral chances this week have a whole lot more importance. Of course, it’s not impossible to win on the road so it would take a lot of poor play for us to find Louisville in that situation, but here at the Watch that’s the exact kind of scenario that makes you nervous. This week is huge to erase that disaster scenario from the lexicon of possibilities.
NC State (27)
I’m not sure another team on the Watch has a clearer turning point in their season than the Wolfpack’s trajectory since their disgusting home loss to GA Tech. They have responded to that embarrassing effort by ripping off 6 straight wins, 2 of which were Q1 and 3 were Q2. That has transformed their Q1/2 record from 6-5 to 11-5, catapulting them from around a 10/11 seed to as high as a 7 seed right now. That is one of the biggest climbs we have seen since the Watch started and it has really been behind the strong play of Darrion Williams and Quadir Copeland. Copeland is averaging an absurd 15 ppg and 10 apg in the 6 game stretch with Williams adding another 16 ppg. All of that has helped them score 80+ in every game as they now look poised to make the dance in year 1 under Will Wade. This week presents them with their toughest test since going to Clemson and winning to kick this run off, as they head to Louisville tonight to take on the Cardinals. A loss wouldn’t do much damage but a win would force everyone to start taking this run seriously. It would also give them their 3rd Q1(A) win of the season, putting them in a territory few of the true bubble teams will come close to matching. They host Miami after that, so 2 more Q1/2 chances as the schedule isn’t letting up any time soon, but so far all that has meant for them is adding great win after great win. We’ll see if they can keep it rolling.
Teetering:
SMU (34)
The theme of the ACC from this point forward is going to be blown opportunities, and while the urgency to capitalize isn’t as high for SMU as it is for the below teams, it’s hard to not feel concerned about the 1 point loss to NC State, a game in which they lead by as many as 13 late in the first half. They gave up 50 in the second half, with Darrion Williams’ 6 threes and 25 points being the catalyst for the Wolfpack’s double digit comeback. SMU is still pretty safely in thanks to their 3 Q1 wins, but if that’s all they end with this thing is going to be a lot closer than we would have thought a month ago. They did bounce back from this loss to pick up a Q2 road win @ Pitt, so it’s not panic time by any means. They just have dropped 5 straight Q1 games after starting 3-1, so they are quickly sliding down the seed list (proj. 9 currently) as other teams have simultaneously been adding to their Q1 total. They have a chance to add to it this week though, as they travel to Syracuse who is still barely inside the top-75 to qualify. If they first handle Notre Dame at home and then pick that one up we’ll feel a lot better about the Mustangs. However, drop a 6th Q1 game in a row to fall to 3-7 and we have to seriously talk about the possibility of SMU falling into dangerous territory. Like I said, not panic time, but you’re starting to read some warning signs on the future cast.
Virginia Tech (55)
The Hokies are in a really tough spot as we laid out last week, as they had 5 Q1 chances left but they are all on the road which makes it very tough to pick up impactful wins. They suffered the first loss of those 5 opportunities on Saturday as they lost @ NC State, dropping to 2-7 in Q1. They continue to stare down the barrel of 2-11 in Q1, which I don’t believe will be good enough to get in, so they have to find a way to pick one of these teams off in their building. This week they’re heading to Clemson who has been playing great basketball as they grind people down with their elite defense. Am I confident they can pick this one up? No, but since they merely host Florida St after that, they will only be in a worse position next week if they drop to 2-8 in Q1. I still have them on the right side of things right now, heading to Dayton, but I’m in the minority despite them having clearly a better top win than Miami, for example, and a better Q1/2 record than them as well. That’s neither here nor there though, as we all can agree 2-11 in Q1 is not going to get it done on Selection Sunday. So, they have to win the one’s they are supposed to and by any means necessary grab one of these Q1 road chances. Another at-bat this week, we’ll see if they can put it in play.
Cal (60)
Cal missed out on a massive opportunity this weekend as they lost to Clemson and now continue to sit right on the cut line, with that ugly 0-2 Q2 record sticking out like a sore thumb. They essentially trailed for the entire game as they were held to a season low in points, so there wasn’t much drama to it as the Tigers kicked their teeth in and now Cal has exhausted their home Q1 opportunities. The bigger issue in my opinion is the ugly Q2 record I just mentioned, and the schedule actually lends itself to them cleaning that up and propping up that 4-5 Q1 record that is much more impressive. If Clemson drops outside the top-30 that could drop them to 0-3, so there actually is a premium for them to just pull themselves back to .500 in that category to clean this thing up a bit. They will have chances to do so as they host SMU/Stanford and go to Wake. They also have one remaining Q1 chance up next as they head to Syracuse, one they certainly could use as they lean on their high Q1 win total as their biggest asset. In my opinion that puts them ahead of Miami, as they have 3 wins that are all far and away better than Miami’s best. I tend to believe the committee leans toward top end wins over clean resumés. After that is a can’t lose trip to BC, so while a 2-0 week could be massive, an 0-2 week could send Cal spiraling into NIT territory quickly.
Miami (FL) (37)
Miami played with fire a little bit on Saturday but ultimately they escaped Boston with a win over BC to keep them right on the cusp. That was their only game since we last met, so it’s not a huge update as they still need to be big game hunting as they have just the 2 Q1 wins @ Wake/Syracuse. A majority of bracketologists seem to believe that’s enough to get them in right now, frankly I think that’s absurd but that’s just one man’s opinion. I don’t see how a team who’s best win, home or away, is over the 67th ranked team in NET would be in the field, especially when they have a Q3 loss. The bubble is weak, but not that weak. So, with that, you can at least confidently say the Hurricanes need a premier win to hang their hat on, as you absolutely do not want to enter Selection Sunday with that pair of wins being all that you have. They have 2 cracks at it this week as they welcome in UNC on Tuesday night and then go to NC State later in the week. Whether or not I’m right at this current moment about where they stand, I certainly can’t see an 0-2 week keeping them on the right side of things for the other folks out there. I would put the UNC game one step shy of must-win, as they still host Louisville later in the year and could win some on the road, but at some point you need to show the committee you can beat a tourney caliber team if you want serious consideration come March. However you see it, it’s nut cutting time for the Canes.
Outside Looking In:
Stanford (70)
Well we’re officially in the disaster scenario I described last week as Stanford failed to beat Clemson at home and can now only improve their Q1 record away from home the rest of the way. We’re not going to completely give up on them since they ended their 5 game losing streak with a 23 point drubbing of GA Tech. Ebuka Okorie was special in that one, leading the way with 40 points to at least get them back above water. Right now they are pretty far out of it, but we have to at least lay out the path, as they do still have the 4 Q1 wins, I just think the committee likely is going to take the Chisom Okpara injury and the fact they are just 2-5 since then into account. Just like we saw with West Virginia last year, the committee is perfectly willing to throw out big time wins if they occurred with a key player a team no longer has at their disposal. Does that include bad losses though? That’s the unique dichotomy of this Cardinal resumé right now, but either way I can’t see a path forward without them going on a run here down the stretch. It starts with trips to Boston College and Wake Forest this week. BC is awful, and Wake is reeling after looking somewhat competent earlier in the year. Gotta have a 2-0 week to keep the dream alive.
–Big Ten–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Iowa (20)
Iowa has felt like a sure fire tournament team for a long time now, consistently being in the top-25 of predictive sites like Kenpom/NET since December. However, this week was a massive step toward making their resumé actually come closer to matching their strong metrics as they had just 1 Q1 win until they went to Washington this past week and picked up a W. They followed that with a win over Northwestern at home, giving them 6 wins in a row as they start to solidify themselves in the field. They still land around the 7 or 8 seed line, so not super safe, especially with just 2 Q1 wins, but it’s super clean outside of that. The concern is they have 5 of their final 8 in Q1, so while 2-5 is good enough right now, would 2-10 keep them alive? I would say no, so there is still some urgency down the stretch as they absolutely need to add at least one more big time win. The chances start this week, as they host Purdue on Saturday after a sleepy trip to Maryland earlier in the week. So, as highly as the computers think of the Hawkeyes, they are by no means out of the woods yet from a resumé standpoint, and a loss to the Boilers this weekend would amp up the pressure as we tear through February. They still have Nebraska/Michigan at home to come, but if I’m them I like my chances to knock off a bumbling Purdue team than those 2. Big one in Iowa City on Saturday.
Teetering:
Wisconsin (43)
Wisconsin took another Q1 hit as they went to Bloomington and lost to IU in OT by 1. They took a late lead in both regulation (up by 4 under a min to go) and OT (up 1 with 10 secs) but were unable to hold on to either as they really let one slip away. Just like Iowa they sit with just 2 Q1 wins, but unlike the Hawkeyes they also own 2 Q2 losses and a road win over 2nd ranked Michigan. Safe to say it’s been an up and down year for the Badgers, but it has still been good enough to have them on the 9/10 seed line at the moment. This week offers up great rewards, but with a perilous path as they head to Illinois and then host Michigan St. Find a way to pick off one of the giants in the conference and this resumé has a whole new feel as we’d feel much more confidence in the Badgers. The more likely scenario? Drop 2 Q1 games to top-10 opponents and all of a sudden you’re just 2-7 in Q1 and likely finding yourself in the Last 4 Byes territory. Still good enough to get in, but with 4 more Q1 games around the bend, only one of which will be in Madison, and you’re staring down 2-11 in Q1. That’s a territory you don’t want to be in, as I continue to say with these teams in this 8-11 seed territory. If you want to feel safe you better get to 3-4 Q1 wins. Not do or die time by any means, but certainly a week that could take some pressure off if you’re able to take advantage of the massive opportunity.
USC (48)
The Trojans seem to have steadied the ship after looking pretty rough in January, and this week was huge as they picked up 2 Q2 wins to stretch that impressive record to 7-1. They still lack the upper echelon wins but they now have 2 wins over teams in the field and importantly both of those are post-injury to Rodney Rice. The story of the week beyond getting some solid wins was clearly Alijah Arenas who in his 5th and 6th games back from injury found his form and dropped 29 and then 24 points. He coming in a replacing that offensive firepower they’ve been missing since Rice went down has suddenly made them much more dangerous, and while they still have some work to do this is the best position they’ve been in all season. They will look to stay hot this week as they play just once in a road trip to Columbus to face Ohio St. That is a gigantic chance for both teams as the Buckeyes are in their own fight on the bubble right now. If Arenas can stay hot, there’s no reason the Trojans can’t go in there and pick up a 3rd Q1 win to really create some separation between them and the true cut line. If not, they stay in the same territory as Wisconsin as they can’t sit on 2 Q1 wins and expect to get in. They’ll have 4 more chances after this, so it’s not desperation time, but every game carries big time weight when you’re living on the bubble.
UCLA (38)
We said this week had to be a get right week for the Bruins and they accomplished just that as they de-pantsed Rutgers and then fought tooth and nail in a tight win over a desperate Washington team. Donovan Dent continued his strong play with 2 double doubles as he continues to get comfortable running the point for Mick Cronin. The next 3 games for UCLA are going to set the tone for the homestretch as they play @ Michigan/Michigan St and then host Illinois. A brutal stretch that almost all teams across the Country would go 0-3 in, but the reality of that would mean the Bruins dropping to just 2-8 in Q1 and overall just 5-10 in Q1/2. That would likely send them spiraling down to the cut line as they could be hovering around Dayton or the NIT. It is brutal, but if that is the way it goes they can’t let that be their undoing, as they have opportunities to bounce back afterwards. It would likely make their final 4 games must-win, but if we’re being honest that looks to be the most realistic path forward, short of upsetting Illinois in Westwood. Anything is possible of course, but they would get the chance to take out Nebraska at home March 3rd, so one of those 2 Q1 home games certainly need to be a win to get the Bruins in a somewhat comfortable position. They have a break so they don’t play again until Saturday, in Ann Arbor. Good luck to ya there.
Indiana (33)
Indiana keeps on surviving and thriving as they pulled another rabbit out of their hat on Saturday to pick up another Q2 win, this time in OT vs Wisconsin. It wasn’t pretty, and they had to come from behind in the final minute of both regulation and OT, but a W is a W in the quadrant system as they don’t ask you how, they just ask you if/where. That now makes the Hoosiers 4-1 in their last 5 games, going 3-1 in Q1/2 to go from on the outside looking in to Last 4 Byes by my estimation. That is how quickly things can turn when the bubble is this weak, as 1 or 2 wins can catapult you above teams in bunches this year. They have a can’t lose game vs Oregon up next and then a very difficult trip to Illinois. This week has to just be holding serve, but we have to be realistic also when we look at that 2-8 Q1 record next to a 2-0 Q2 record. Unimpressive to say the least. So, while they have put themselves in position if the season were to end today, it doesn’t, and they have 3 more road Q1 games with just one more shot at home left. A realistic path forward would include a home win over Michigan St or a road win @ Ohio St. Even better would be both of those W’s to be 4-10 in Q1, but either way I think worse case they have to go 4-3 the rest of the way if they want a shot, with a 5-2 finish much more likely to have them in. Can’t afford a slip up and also are going to need to pick up some big wins. A mountain to climb, but the ascent began a couple of weeks ago and is going well thus far, just have to keep marching forward.
Ohio St (40)
No team exemplifies my confusion at the matrix right now than these Buckeyes, but after seeing them now 0-7 in Q1 I have no idea how you have them in the field right now. They have just 1 win over a top-50 team and it was at home vs UCLA, good for a Q2 win, and after that beating they took at home at the hands of rival Michigan they are down to just 1 more home chance at a Q1 victory with Purdue coming on March 1st. Make no bones about it, it is going to take more than just that win to get them safely in, so they are going to need to go on a run down the stretch if they want a chance. This week they get USC at home which feels like a must-win as they really can’t afford to be dropping what would be the 2nd best team they’ve beaten this year. Then they get Virginia on a neutral site, a chance to notch a top-20 win away from home, just what the doctor ordered. I wouldn’t call it must-win but after this it’s @ Michigan St/Iowa and vs Purdue in Q1 before the Big Ten tourney. I have been saying 2 Q1 wins won’t be enough to be safe, so suffice to say I think they need at least this UVA win and the Purdue win to find themselves on the right side. Others disagree, but the way I see it they need a 6-2 finish. It’s officially nut cutting time in Columbus.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Texas Tech (19)
Despite not having Christian Anderson the Red Raiders were oh so close to knocking off Kansas at home, but ultimately it goes down as a Q1 loss that dropped them to 5-6 in Q1. They quickly bounced back though, as Anderson returned to the lineup and they went to Morgantown and knocked off the Mountaineers. Anderson had a double-double with 13 points and 11 assists to show exactly what he means to this team offensively and with he and Toppin inside they have as dynamic a 1-2 punch as there is in the country. They are now 6-6 in Q1 and on the doorstep of locking, but the Big 12 gives you no rest as they have to go to Arizona this week after hosting Colorado. In all, they have 4 more Q1 road games, and while going 6-10 in Q1 won’t sink them down to the cut line this year, if they start dropping games outside of Q1 we could have a different story on our hands. We’ll make them earn it just a bit more, but make no mistake they are in great shape and will be a very dangerous team in March, regardless of where they fall on the seed line.
BYU (18)
Well that didn’t go as planned, as not only did BYU fail to take down Houston at home they entered that game on the heels of a loss @ Oklahoma St and now in total they’ve lost 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. We are starting to see that BYU may have actually been a paper tiger, and while it’s fun to watch the presumed #1 or #2 overall pick in the draft, it’s time you take notice of the fact they’ve played 5 top-25 teams and gone 0-5 in those games. So, while they have a somewhat impressive 4-6 record in Q1, and outside of Q1 (A) are 17-1, you have to be doubting their ability to go on a deep run in March, unless they somehow avoid top-25 teams in their path. Regardless of that, we’re here to assess their chances of making the tournament, and with 4 Q1 wins they still sit in a good post despite this current streak of losing. They are in desperate need of a get right win, and a trip to Waco to face a desperate Baylor team is not exactly the layup win you’d ask for. However, it’s not a top-25 team, so maybe they will be able to flex their muscle enough to pick up a 5th Q1 win and quiet any feelings of collapse. They do get Colorado at home after that, but falling to 4-7 in Q1 with Zona/Iowa St around the corner would feel quite ominous, regardless of how badly they beat the Buffs.
UCF (44)
I’m not exactly sure how hard the Knights partied after taking down Texas Tech at home last week, but the hangover has extended to a week now as they got dog walked by Houston at home, okay that happens, but then they went to Cincy and lost by 20. That’s a head scratcher, as Cincy had been dreadful all year on offense and UCF allowed them to score 92 points. Alarming to say the least. They have 3 very strong wins right now with W’s over Kansas/Tech at home and A&M on the road, but the way they played this week does not inspire confidence for the 7 games remaining. The good news is they have some time to think about it as they don’t play again until Saturday, but hopefully this embarrassing of a loss can be a wake up call that the hay is not quite in the barn just because you beat a couple of big boys in conference play. It’s only February, you haven’t won anything yet, and if you want the chance to actually do something special you’re going to need a few more big wins. They host West Virginia next, a big time chance to lift that Q2 record up to 3-0 and prove this past week was just a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come.
Teetering:
Oklahoma St (66)
The Pokes are alive and in this thing! For so long it looked like Oklahoma St was just going to hang around on the outside, failing to ever notch a big time win to really put them firmly in the conversation. That was until Wednesday night when the knocked off BYU at home to grab their first Q1 win and surged them into the Last 4 In/First 4 Out debate. I have them in, others have them out, but either way they are not firmly in the mix as they have that signature win to hang their hat on. Now, they followed that up with a blowout loss @ Arizona, but there’s no real shame in that this year as the Wildcats are doing that to just about everyone. They have to turn their focus quickly to this week as they have 2 big chances against similar level Big 12 teams. First they will stay in the state of Arizona to play the Sun Devils and then they host fellow bubble team TCU. If they want to cement themselves in the field they can’t be dropping Q2 games at this stage, especially with the relative ease of the remaining schedule aside from home games with Kansas/Houston. They can easily go on a run and find themselves back in the dance for the 1st time since 2021 in year 2 under Steve Lutz.
Outside Looking In:
Baylor (46)
Just as we thought Baylor went 1-1 this week, handling Colorado with ease at home and then losing @ Iowa St, although they came close to knocking off the Cyclones as they furiously came back from down 15 late to only lose by 3. Ultimately, it dropped them to 3-7 in Q1, but still despite the ugly record I think they’re in a decent position to go on a run and get themselves into the dance. They need a top flight win though and this week presents them that opportunity as they host BYU and then have Louisville coming to their home state as they face the Cardinals in Ft. Worth on a “neutral” site. Go 2-0 this week and we’re cooking with gas, but even a split would give them that top-20 win they are missing from the resumé. I would find it hard to believe in a year like this they won’t be up in the field if they can get to 4-5 Q1 wins, as I don’t think the committee is going to punish a team that has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, especially if they improve that 3-3 Q2 record. I have hope, but they are not going to be dancing without that big time win, so it’s getting to be do or die time right now in Waco.
TCU (53)
TCU did what they had to do this week to stay on the Watch as they beat K-State at home to get back in the win column. It wasn’t pretty though, as they trailed by as much as 18 and were down 10 with 5 to go. They still found a way to stay alive and now enter a massively important week with some momentum hopefully. They host Iowa St and then go to Oklahoma St, giving them 2 big time Q1 opportunities as they try to claw there way back up to the cut line. As we’ve covered in the past, this is a unique resumé as they have some strong wins over Florida/Wisconsin/Baylor all away from home. They just also have the Q3 and Q4 losses that are dragging them down a bit. I really think with a couple more Q2 wins and 1 more high level win in Q1 they would fly right back into contention, but they certainly aren’t going to do that playing the way they have the last 2 games. Their M.O. seems to be playing to the level of their competition, which is good news when the level of play ratchets up. An 0-2 week may be cause for removal from the watch, but again in a weak year 3-8 in Q1 isn’t as bad even with the 3 bad losses. However you split it, they have to find a way to add more and this week is their best chance to make a major move in a single week that they have left on the schedule.
West Virginia (63)
West Virginia continues to cling to a tiny drop of hope as we continue to see opportunities exhaust themselves. They did what they had to do by beating Cincy on the road, but they blew another chance on Sunday as they lost to Texas Tech at home. They are essentially just clinging to the home win over Kansas, but in the Big 12 opportunity awaits around every corner, so it’s hard to give up on these teams that are just lingering around. They have a nice break this week and then they head to a recently reeling UCF team who looks very beatable right now. That would give them an all-important 2nd Q1 win that would really help bring them into the bubble fold, as right now at just 1-6 they are one of the furthest out on the Watch right now. Big picture they have trips to TCU and Oklahoma St coming up as well as a home matchup with a struggling BYU team so it’s not all that crazy to think they could go on a run here.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
St. John’s (22)
The Johnnies are now knocking on the door of locking up after that massive win over UConn on Friday night. What a wonderful display of college hoops that was as the Garden was rocking and 2 great HC’s were going at it with 2 great teams. What Rick Pitino has done with this group needs to be discussed, as in November this group was a hectic disaster that wouldn’t have come close to beating UConn. They have steadily improved and gotten to the point they are a legit threat as they have found a defensive identity and an intensity on the glass behind the trio of Ejiofor/Mitchell/Hopkins. They now have won 9 games in a row, and while the Big East isn’t going to allow them to climb up the seed list like maybe their talent profile would suggest they are going to be a scary opponent in March. Speaking of resumé that win was massively important as they picked up a Q1(A) win that was their 4th overall Q1 win to give them plenty of breathing room. They now are at worst on the 6 seed line with maybe potential to get to a 5 seed or so, but with just 2 Q1 chances left and a Q3 loss out there already I’m not sure how high 6-4 would get them. They won’t be overly concerned about that though, as they need to keep grinding and avoiding the land mines that exist around every turn in the Big East.
Teetering:
Villanova (32)
Just like a said last week, Nova continues to get wins but when you dig into this resumé there’s not a lot of meat on the bone. This week was simply a home win over Seton Hall and then a road win @ Georgetown, good for 2 Q2 wins but certainly not helping in the elite win department. They have just 2 more chances prior to the Big East tourney to notch a Q1 win, with UConn coming Feb 21st and then a trip to St. John’s a week after that. Until then, they have to keep winning to avoid sliding down into the real bubble conversation. I want to point out though, there is not much separation, and the teams in the power conferences are going to have so many more opportunities to pass Nova up. So, between now and that matchup with UConn we may be singing a different tune, as right now they have just the 1 win over a top-50 team, neutral site vs Wisconsin. After that it’s @ Seton Hall and @ Butler who is dangerously close to slipping outside the top-75. Until then, we’ll just keep monitoring as they try and navigate a pesky Big East that offers mostly traps instead of opportunities.
Outside Looking In:
Seton Hall (52)
The slide continues for Seton Hall as they have now dropped 6 of their last 8 games after starting the season 14-2. The losses this week were @ Nova and @ Creighton, the latter of which was the real disappointing one as they led by 10 with 3.5 to go and still found a way to come up short. That blown lead may end up being the one that haunts them as they play in the NIT, but I don’t want to give up just yet as they still have some opportunities down the stretch to salvage this thing. This week they host Providence and then go to Butler, 2 games that they absolutely have to have at this stage as they continue to fall further and further from the cut line. Butler is reeling, so that’s not too tricky of a road trip but Providence is pesky so it’s not like it’ll be easy, but if you want to go dancing you have to win games like this against teams in the 65-75 range in NET. A 2-0 week in Q1/2 would lift them to 7-8 overall in those, so that would really help them remain in the conversation, with the need to get a big time signature win still out there as all they have to their name is that win over NC State in November. Huge week to just stay afloat for the Pirates.
–SEC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Florida (9)
The Gators seem to have fully bounced back after that shocking loss at home to Auburn, as this week they looked like an unstoppable force as they kicked the snot out of Bama (23 point W) and then went to A&M and did the same thing to the Aggies (19 point W) as they took a stranglehold on first place in the conference. They have jumped up to 6 Q1 wins and a likely 4 seed right now, so they are on the doorstep of locking in early February after starting the season just 5-4. It looked like earlier in the year they would struggle because they couldn’t hit outside shots, and that looks dead wrong now, not because they are hitting shots but because they have nearly abandoned it altogether, choosing instead to hammer the paint and dare you to stop them. Most haven’t been able to, and even when they do shoot and miss, good luck getting a rebound. That’s Florida, and with a couple more wins we’ll be done discussing them, but come tournament time they will be a scary opponent to see in your region once again. This week they go to a somewhat desperate Georgia team and then host Kentucky in a big one for the Conference race. A 2-0 week and we can forget about the Gators here.
Vanderbilt (14)
From beating Kentucky by 25 at home to losing to lowly Oklahoma I just can’t quite figure out this Vandy team. All I thought going into this week was we needed to just see Vandy handle business one more time and then we could lock them up and forget about them on the Watch. Here we are after the Commodores inexplicably dropped one to the Sooners at home, giving up 92 points in another disappointing defensive effort. That has been the issue when they’ve lost, giving up over 90 in 3 of their 4 losses. For whatever reason, they just don’t bring it every night from an intensity standpoint, and for that reason they remain not locked as how can you trust them to stay locked in and not fall apart down the stretch? Especially when the upcoming week has a trip to Auburn and then they host A&M. If you can lose at home to this year’s Oklahoma you can lose to anyone so I’m going to need to see a little more from this group before I lock them up and throw away the key. 6 of their final 8 are on the road, and while I don’t think a team with 6 Q1 wins is going to miss the dance, it’s hard to know what the argument would be if they totally collapse down the stretch. It won’t happen, but I can’t in good conscience lock up a team that just lost at home to Oklahoma.
Arkansas (26)
The Hogs did what was required in order to remain in a good position as they went to Mississippi and blew out State. It’s not a win that is going to move the needle much but I’m sure Cal was happy to see this young group respond to a tough and emotional loss at home to Kentucky last week. They used the week off to get right and it showed as they defended at a high level and scored 88 points on 70 possessions behind a strong effort from Darius Acuff who had 24 pts and 8 assists. They are still sitting at 5-6 in Q1, so pretty strong, especially considering 5 of the 6 losses are Q1(A). That is good enough to have them around a 5 seed, so very safe from any bubble scares, but in the SEC you can’t rest on your laurels. They head to a desperate and almost dead LSU who should be playing like their lives depend on it, and then they host a dangerous Auburn team that has already beaten them by 22 points. 0-2 is on the table, and that would drop them into more of a 6-7 seed conversation, far from locking up at that point. However, flip that around and they’d have 6 Q1 wins and be 19-6, which would feel like plenty to be able to lock with only 6 remaining. Big week, with the real answer to be if this group has what it takes to compete for a conference title.
Alabama (23)
Bama had a huge week after taking much of the ire of fans around the sport who are growing increasingly frustrated with the NCAA. Bediako took a seat and came off the bench, and the offense absolutely exploded as they averaged 98 points in two massive wins over A&M and @ Auburn. That kind of week was exactly what the doctor ordered as they were in a bit of a rut dropping 4 of 7. They are still very bad defensively, but when you have the high octane ability on offense like they do it’s always going to keep you in games.They have as easy of a week as you can get in the SEC as they go to Ole Miss and then host S. Carolina. Not exactly easy wins but in a league like this you’ll take a week without a Q1 game to keep the momentum rolling. A couple of more wins and we may be able to lock up the Tide as well, as they now have 6 Q1 wins and one of the strongest SOS numbers in the Country. The losses look jarring but they have 11 Q1/2 wins which would be hard to fathom not being enough. Avoid a couple of bad losses that could muddy the waters and we can likely lock up the Tide and shift our focus to the real bubbly teams in this conference.
Kentucky (28)
Mark Pope has to be feeling pretty good right now as about a month ago BBN was preparing the riot gear as UK lost a rough one at home to Mizzou to drop to 9-6 and 0-2 in the SEC. After this week’s sweep of Tennessee and win over Oklahoma at Rupp Arena, they have now gone 8-1 since that dreadful night, taking the heat off of Pope as he has finally pushed the right buttons with this loaded roster. That run has gotten them from a borderline tourney team all the way up to as high as a 5 or 6 seed right now as they are now 5-6 in Q1 with a 3-1 Q2 record to boot. They have road wins over Arkansas and Tennessee as well as a neutral site win over St. John’s that is aging like fine wine. They have a long break until a Saturday clash in Gainsville with Florida, who represents the biggest test you can get in the SEC right now. A win could bring them to a tie with Florida atop the SEC standings, but that is a tall order as these Gators have been rolling. I would expect we’re looking at Kentucky still not locked after a loss to Florida, but I’ve been wrong before.
Tennessee (21)
The Vols handled business at home when they beat up on Ole Miss, winning by 18, but they later went to Lexington and let one slip away as they lost again to Kentucky. They led by 14 at halftime and led for much of the 2nd half as well, as the Wildcats didn’t lead until the waining seconds. That one will hurt, but I’m still pretty confident in this version of the Vols as Rick Barnes is right up there with Rick Pitino in terms of coaching jobs from November to now. The key has been Nate Ament as they had won 5 in a row prior to this loss and he had been scorching hot offensively, and continued that against UK as he scored 29. Him being a true number 1 like we all thought he would be, alongside Gillespie, gives them the firepower they were missing earlier in the season. They are also playing better D, so they’ve gotten better in all phases and grown more confident. The resumé took a hit as they fell to 4-7 in Q1, but they had surged prior so they still sit somewhere around the 7 seed line for now. This week is a chance to get right back on track as they go to Mississippi St and then host LSU, 2 games that have to be wins if they are who we think they are right now.
Auburn (31)
Auburn is as up and down of a team as we have on the Watch right now as they’ve recently gone to Florida and won but also just lost at home to Alabama. Now, they’re having to trade blows with very good teams night after night, but still I’m not sure what I’m getting on any given night with them. I know Hall is going to score 20+, but the defense is hit and miss and Pettiford is wildly inconsistent. That loss dropped them to just 4-8 in Q1 and just 6-9 overall in Q1/2. I don’t think that’s bad enough to have them in real danger, but it keeps that conversation alive as the nations 2nd most difficult schedule continues to be relentless as they have to host Vandy and then go to Arkansas this week. 2 more Q1 games, and while everyone always hoots and hollers about needing a difficult schedule, I’m thinking Auburn would like a nice Q3 home game mixed in right now. If they drop both games this week and fall to 4-10 things are going to get really interesting because at 14-11 overall they’re going to get to that territory where we’ve seen teams in the past seemingly get punished for playing such a tough schedule. Last year it was IU at 4-12 in Q1 that missed out, but similarly we saw Oklahoma St a few years back miss out with double digit Q1 losses despite having more Q1 wins than teams that got in over them. It’s the win volume vs win % conundrum, but one we hope we won’t have to face with Auburn as they could just rack up a couple more Q1 wins to make this nice and easy.
Teetering:
Texas A&M (39)
That was a tough week for Bucky McMillan and co. as the Aggies went on the road and fought valiantly in a loss to Bama in which they scored 97 points, and then came home and got undressed by Florida who led wire to wire. That performance was a concerning one, unless you really believe that Florida is just turning themselves into an elite team right before our eyes. While that is certainly possible, considering A&M entered the week 7-1 in the SEC looking to compete for a conference title, they have to be disappointed with the results this past week. It also puts some pressure on them now resumé wise as they really didn’t have much going for them in the non-conference and now fall to just 3-5 in Q1. I don’t think there in legitimate trouble right now thanks to the 3 Q1(A) road wins they’ve picked up, but they are living in that 8-9 seed zone that you really want to avoid this year given how strong the 1 seeds are looking. They have a nice bounce back chance with Mizzou coming to College Station early this week, so a win there to get things rolling again would be massive. Then they head to Nashville to take on Vandy. A split this week would be just fine, but you can guarantee Mizzou is seeing blood in the waters and are desperate to land another big fish on their resumé, so you can’t sleep walk into that one.
Georgia (35)
Now we’ve entered the true bubbly teams in this conference as we get down to Georgia who right now is safely in but by no means should be confident if they add nothing the rest of the way. They did well this week to keep themselves separated from the true cut line as they went to LSU and picked up a big time road win to get to 3 solid Q1 wins, with the Auburn win oscillating back and forth as a potential 4th. That did them some real good, powered by a 23 point outburst from transfer Kanon Catchings who hit 5 threes and is now up to 42% from deep in SEC play. It also ended their mini 3-game skid so the ship appears to be headed in the right direction again, if only for the moment as they host the Gators next. It is likely asking a lot for them to knock off Florida right now, so looking beyond that they have a trip to Oklahoma after that which is going to be pivotal, especially if we’re assuming they lose to Florida. Go 0-2 this week and all of a sudden you’re just 7-7 in Q1/2 and own losses in 5 out of 6, much shakier ground. A win vs Florida obviously cements their ticket in a lot of ways, but short of that a split on the week at least keeps them right around the 10 seed line they’ve been living on for some time now.
Texas (36)
Texas has really gotten things rolling, and while it helps to have back-to-back home games vs S. Carolina and Ole Miss to get you feeling good you still have to go out and win the games and they did just that to make it 3 W’s in a row as they continue to rise up the seed list. I have them as one of the final byes, others have them in Dayton, but I think it’s near universal that they are at least in the field right now. That is in large part because of their 4 Q1 wins, and while the overall 5-8 record in Q1/2 is not especially strong, the fact 4 of those wins are in Q1 with multiple Q1(A) they simply have the best set of wins of any of these bubble teams fighting for the last few spots. They are going to have the chance to add to that as well as 5 of their final 7 games are Q1, with their lone game this week @ Mizzou the next of those opportunities. So, if they want to make the dance I’m looking for at least a 3-4 finish that lifts them to 3-2 in Q2 with wins over LSU/Oklahoma at home and then finding a way to jump up to 5 Q1 wins. I don’t see a team with that many Q1 wins missing out, even if it’s a 5-10 Q1 record. Now, if the Oklahoma win falls off and they go to 4-10 paired with 4-2 in Q2 is that still enough? I would say so, but it would likely be somewhat close. That is the narrowest of paths forward, with plenty of chances to make it much clearer than that.
Outside Looking In:
Missouri (62)
Big time win for Mizzou this week and while it didn’t create even a pulse on most people’s radar they went to S. Carolina and picked up a Q2 win. Amazingly, since we last met we’ve seen their Q2 record transform from an ugly 0-3 to now 4-3 as both Oklahoma and Minnesota have fought there way into the top-75 and Auburn drifted back outside the top-30. Suddenly that stench of a terrible Q2 record is off of them, albeit unlikely to stay exactly where it is, we can at least view Mizzou through the lens in which they currently exist and say they’re right on the edge. They have big time wins over Florida and Kentucky that are carrying them, and frankly with that 4-3 Q2 record now they look stronger on paper. That is kind of the flaw here with the quadrant system, being that they didn’t actually add 4 wins they only won once since we last met, but the strength of their past opponents has simply changed. A weird quirk as we track these things week by week, but if I’m a Mizzou fan I certainly don’t want to count on Minnesota and Oklahoma playing well enough down the stretch to stay in the top-75, so there is still plenty of urgency here. They go to A&M and then host Texas, with the latter being a perfect chance to get one of those Q2 wins they know isn’t going anywhere. Two losses this week would be devastating at this stage, so it’s critical they at least beat Texas at home.
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Utah St (25)
Utah St is quietly putting themselves in fantastic position as they’ve added a home win over San Diego St and now this week a road win over New Mexico to their resumé. Mason Falslev and MJ Collins continue to drive this thing as they combined for 35 against the Lobos and 47 against Wyoming this past week. The Aggies are now a staggering 9-2 in Q1/2, and while they lack the top level wins in Q1(A) they should feel pretty good about where they sit given the win % and having enough volume. Of course, with only having 3 Q1 wins and none being over top-40 teams they can’t afford to go on a losing streak and be safe, but the schedule down the stretch is pretty friendly so I expect them to keep stacking up wins and be the front runner in the MWC. 5 of their final 8 are at home, with 1 of the road trips being sub-100 UNLV, so it should be at worst a 6-2 finish that would leave them 25-5 and a no doubt tourney team at that point. They of course could stub there toe along the way, but right now they are sitting pretty and really just need to hold serve from this point forward.
Teetering:
San Diego St (42)
It was a ho-hum week in San Diego as the Aztecs just held serve as they oscillate from Last 4 In to First 4 Out, awaiting an opportunity to improve their resumé. This week won’t give them much, as they don’t play again until Saturday, hosting Nevada in what will only qualify as a Q2 win if they secure it. Right now I don’t know how you would have them in just simply due to the lack of a high quality win. They did play a tough non-con schedule which the committee will look kindly on, but they also lost all of those tough games they played, so it doesn’t do a whole lot for them at the end of the day. Right now they have just the 1 win over a top-50 team with the home win vs New Mexico, good for Q2, and the only Q1 victory was @ Nevada. They have to have the Feb 25th rematch with Utah St circled as I honestly view that as a must-win if they want to feel strongly about their chances at an at-large. I don’t see them getting in with New Mexico being the best team they’ve beaten all year. I mean maybe if they finish 6-1 with the only loss being to Utah St, as that would get them to 3-6 in Q1, but it would be close. So, until then we’ll keep tracking them with that massive matchup in mind later this month as the defining moment.
New Mexico (45)
What a monumentally disastrous week for the Lobos this week as they not only got their teeth kicked in by Utah St in their lone remaining Q1 home chance they then lost Boise St at home. They are now facing a tough challenge going forward as they fall to just 1-4 in Q1 and picked up a 2nd loss outside of Q1. They still are 5-1 in Q2 which is solid, but that blowout at the hands of Utah St was really the kicker, as they could’ve really used that 2nd Q1 win to put some space between them and the true cut line. Now they are right in the cross-hairs as their best wins are over VCU and Santa Clara, two other mid-majors fighting for their chances at an at-large. It’s not nothing, but no top-40 wins puts pressure on the Lobos to try and add to the resumé, and certainly means they can’t afford to only stack L’s in Q1 the rest of the way. It starts this week with a trip to Grand Canyon, but they also have San Diego St at home and trips to Utah St/Nevada still on the docket. Some variety of a 2-2 split there feels like the bare minimum to stay on the right side of things, so we’ll see how they get started with that this week as that trip to Phoenix is their only game until we meet again.
Outside Looking In:
Nevada (57)
Nevada blew a prime opportunity this week to get themselves into real consideration as they fell in OT @ Boise to drop to 0-5 in Q1. They of course had their chances and just couldn’t get it done, so they will have to try and knock off Utah St at home or San Diego St on the road if they want to pick up that elusive Q1 win that they need to be true bubble contenders. That is a perilous path forward, but they at least have a fighting chance as they in theory could win those games and catapult themselves into the field. Do I expect it to happen? Absolutely not, but given I am searching far and wide to try and fill these bubble contender spots we have to keep the Wolfpack around in case they pull off the improbable. That journey begins this week as they have the week off and then go to San Diego St on Saturday. Next week is when they host Utah St, so we’re going to find out real quickly if the dream can be achieved or if we’ll simply be dropping yet another team off of the Watch.
Grand Canyon (69)
The Lopes are now barely clinging to any at-large hope as they dropped one @ UNLV this week and now find themselves on life support. They have the 2 Q1 wins and an overall 5-5 Q1/2 record, but that loss took their biggest weakness from bad to worse as they dropped a 3rd Q3/4 game on the season. Some of the power conference teams who are in a similar scenario (TCU/Stanford) have more meat on the Q1 bone and have even more opportunities down the stretch to add more. I think GCU the rest of the way can only afford 1 more loss, and they have trips to Utah St/San Diego St upcoming. If they find a way to grab one of those wins and win the rest as well they would finish 22-9 and 3-5 in Q1, which may be enough to be in the conversation a bit more with the MW tourney being critical to adding even more to the resumé. It’s as long a shot as there is on the Watch right now but in a year where the list of candidates is becoming increasingly slim, the Antelopes live to see another week. There journey begins by hosting what is now a wounded New Mexico team and then a layup in San Jose. Absolutely have to go 2-0 if you want me to have any confidence in this going forward.
–WCC–
Locks:
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Saint Mary’s (29)
I don’t have much to add this week as the Gaels were able to hold down the fort beating San Diego and San Francisco at home this week to stay in the fight. While I along with everyone else still have them in the field right now, I have them just barely in as I’m not sure how this resumé can be put over some of these other bubble teams. Their best win right now is over 55th ranked Virginia Tech. I would argue almost all of the above Mountain West teams have a better resumé right now than the Gaels, as even they lost @ Boise St, so I’m not sure how people think they’re on the 9-10 seed line right now other than just looking at NET ranking. The committee has repeatedly said if all you have is your NET ranking then you don’t have much, and that’s where St. Mary’s is and is going to be until the last week of February. The only Q2 chance they even have is @ Pacific this week, but that’s honestly not going to add much. Then the last week of the season presents them home games vs Santa Clara and then Gonzaga. I think they very well may have to go 2-0 that week to have high hopes of an at-large berth. If they enter Selection Sunday at 0-4 in Q1 with their best win being, even Santa Clara, I don’t know if you can make a case the Gaels would have had a season worthy of going dancing. The pressure is on, albeit in the distant future, but they certainly can’t afford to drop any of the gimme’s on the schedule in the short term.
Santa Clara (41)
We have finally reached the most important week of the season for Santa Clara as it’s Gonzaga week. We first need to give them credit for staying focused and picking up two tricky road wins over Pacific and Wazzu. While those won’t move the resumé needle they avoided adding bad losses to sub-100 ranked teams which is very important given their position right now. We have been counting down the days until this matchup with the Zags as they desperately need that top end win to hang their hat on. They are perfectly teetering right now as about half of prognosticators have them in, while the rest have them just on the outside. It really does all come down to winning this game, as it would put them in prime position to get in with a monster Q1(A) win to hold over the rest of these bubble teams. A loss though, and they’ll be forced to try and win @ St. Mary’s after that to try and pick up a signature win to bring to the table. They first need to hold that focus for one more game against a feisty Seattle team in as big a trap game as you can have. A 2-0 week and we’ll be coming to you next week with Santa Clara solidly in the field I’d say. What a moment for Santa Clara fans and more importantly for Herb Sendek and these players. We’ll see if they can rise to the occasion on Saturday night, as not only could they position themselves to get into the dance for the first time in 30 years, they have a shot at winning the WCC regular season title.
–A-10–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
St. Louis (15)
This continues to be one of the more remarkable seasons from a mid-major team that we’ve seen in some time, as the Billikens continue to rip off win after win, tearing there way through the A-10 as they now sit 23-1 and 11-0 in conference play. Josh Shertz is clearly an unbelievable HC, doing this at Indiana St and now St. Louis, it’s incredible what he’s able to do with the resources he’s given. I’m going to stay away from how high or low I think they should be seeded and just emphasize they need to avoid adding bad losses to their resumé as they charge forward, as currently 5-1 in Q1/2 should be plenty to get them in. They have the 2-0 Q1 record with wins over Santa Clara and VCU, but neither of those teams are tourney teams right now so while it looks good right now, if they lose focus and drop a couple I think it could be closer than people realize. Nevertheless, there are chances still to add Q1/2 wins that they can’t look past, but for this week they only have a trip to bottom feeder Illinois Chicago, so we should be in about the same position next week with St. Louis as they continue to be a revelation.
Outside Looking in:
VCU (49)
The Rams have now reeled off 7 wins in a row as they essentially are just waiting for an opportunity to strike and land a much needed Q1 W. They are just 0-5 in that category, and that is keeping them out of real consideration right now, as even in a weak bubble year you’re not going to go dancing with 0 high quality wins. Right now their best is 55th ranked VA Tech, so they have to have the trip to St. Louis on Feb 20th circled as that might be their last gasp at getting into the field without an A-10 tourney championship. They go on the road this week as they go to La Salle and Richmond, 2 games you just can’t afford to drop right now if you want to stay in the hunt. Handle your business, keep stacking wins, and then be ready to pounce when the opportunity arises. That is the moral of the story for many of these mid-major teams vying for an at-large right now, as they have the unfortunate reality that their competition in power conferences are getting opportunities left and right to separate from them. The good news is many of them are failing to capitalize, but without that Q1 win later this month, we can kiss the at-large dream goodbye for VCU, that much I’m sure of. Until then, it’s just survive and advance.
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Miami (OH) (50)
The biggest story of college basketball right now are your Miami RedHawks who continue to roll through their schedule as they are now 24-0. They are a very balanced group with 5 guys averaging double figures, so credit to HC Travis Steele who has recruited and developed many of these guys, with only a couple of transfers who also were here last season. It’s a great mid-major story, and nice to see considering how top heavy the sport is feeling in the portal/NIL era. Now, I hate to take the air out of the balloon, but I’m sure you’re aware at this point the schedule is Charmin soft, which unfortunately is very bad news when it comes to evaluating them for an at-large spot. I have already heard the discussions about how there is no way they can be left out if they only lose once or if they go undefeated until the MAC final. But are we actually sure about that? Right now I have very little hope that the committee would give an at-large spot to a team without a top-50 win. They would have benefitted greatly from a trip to Akron, but unfortunately their only matchup with them was at home and is just a Q2 win. It would be an unprecedented resumé I will admit, but it is likely they would be stacked up next to high major teams who would likely have several top-50 wins. The only way I see it happening is if it’s a close loss to Akron, and even then they need the other bubble resumé’s to be weak. I just don’t see how they would justify to SEC/Big Ten teams who have played a gauntlet of a schedule that a team who played 0 Q1 games is going to get in over them, especially with the metrics evaluating them as only around the 50th best team. Your only argument is they just didn’t have the chance, but if they lose at any point in Q2, what makes me think they could compete in Q1? That is not what I desire the answer to be, as I think it’d be more fun to have them in, but I just can’t see the committee doing it. I hope we don’t have to find out if I’m right.
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