This last week belonged to a couple teams, with both TCU and Wisconsin making major moves as they each picked up 2 Q1 wins to catapult up the seed list. They are a bit of an exception to the rule though, as for the most part the upper echelon of the sport continues to rack up wins until they play each other. Teams like Iowa, Oklahoma St, Baylor and Ohio St all failed to jump on opportunities this week, among many others, as the bubble continues to shrink and tighten up from the Last 4 Byes to even 10-12 deep on the outside. It’s a smaller group than we’ve had in years past, with more locks than we typically have this early because the top is so strong. We still have multiple chances for mid-majors to get in with the A-10/WCC/MWC all looking to get multiple bids, with strong signals of bid stealing opportunities as their top end teams should be solid at-large teams with Gonzaga/Utah St/St. Louis all looking strong. That could mean and even further tightening of the rope, but for now all we can do is lay out the path forward for these teams. For some, it’s do or die the rest of the way, for others, it’s survival and avoiding disaster. Whatever the case, it’s 38 teams vying for roughly 25 remaining spots. Let’s get it.
For those new here stick with me, as I explain more about what I’m doing, vets can skip ahead with the buttons below.
So, I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
I have provided below the Quadrant system to help contextualize what I’m referring to when discussing wins. Each conference has a table with the team’s resumé to reference at the beginning, for your own comparison, including the locks. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 62 teams on the Watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/2. Check out my current bracket projection here.
| Quadrant 1 (Q1) | Quadrant 2 (Q2) | Quadrant 3 (Q3) | Quadrant 4 (Q4) |
| Home (1-30) | Home (31-75) | Home (76-160) | Home (161-364) |
| Neutral (1-50) | Neutral (51-100) | Neutral (101-200) | Neutral (201-364) |
| Away (1-75) | Away (76-135) | Away (136-240) | Away (241-364) |
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 23
Locks: 20
Bids Left: 25
Bubble: 38
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Louisville (12 NET) – Proj. 6 seed
It’s safe to say Mikel Brown is back and feeling 100% as the FR phenom had the best week of his career this week, as he scored 74 total points in the Cardinal’s two big wins over NC State and Baylor. Since his return they are now 6-1, with the only loss being @ Duke, so they seem to be hitting their stride at just the right time as they’re back to full strength and flying up the seed list. They are now on the doorstep of locking, but this week gives them another chance to really put the finishing touches on their case as they head to SMU for another Q1 opportunity. If they can go to Dallas and knock off what is now a desperate group, then with 6 Q1 wins we will feel confident they’ll be dancing. They host GA Tech after that one, so at minimum I would think a 1-1 week with their toughest 2 remaining coming the week after as they go to Clemson/UNC. Throw in a trip to Miami in the season finale, and you see why we’re not locking quite yet as they have 4 major road trips still left. That means there’s at least some level of probability that they slide right back down the seed list if they can’t find a way to get a big win on the road. This time of year is the hardest time to go on the road, especially when the opponents are desperate for big wins. The Cardinals are the hunted right now, with hungry animal after hungry animal in their path, we’ll see how they handle it.
Clemson (31) – Proj. 7 seed
Just as I was hyping up Clemson they turn in a week like that, as not only did they just lose to Duke on the road, it was on the heels of a much more embarrassing loss at home to VA Tech. That dropped the Tigers to just 4-4 in Q1, and while that as a snapshot isn’t too bad, especially this year, they still have 3 more Q1 games so that gives them the potential of dropping to 4-7 in Q1 with 0 wins in Q1(A). I still think that likely gets them in, but that’s assuming they beat Florida St and Georgia Tech as well. If they don’t want to finish in a free fall they have to figure something out on the offensive end, as they are an elite defensive team but lost scoring 66 and 54 this week. They are now 75th in offensive efficiency, one of the worst rankings of any team on the Watch right now. They get a chance to bounce back and cool any paper tiger talk this week as they go to Wake Forest and then host Florida St. If they are able to sweep those games then we should be feeling very confident as the Wake game should add a 5th Q1 win so long as they can hang on to a top-75 ranking. It’s not panic time or anything, we’re just waiting to make sure this isn’t one of those late season collapse scenarios.
NC State (29) – Proj. 8 seed
The last time we met I was praising the Wolfpack for the turnaround they had made, how they had clearly turned a corner and had this thing rolling. Well, this week was the proverbial crowbar in the bike tire, as they went to Louisville and laid an absolute egg, giving up 118 points in a 51 point blowout loss. As if that wasn’t bad enough, they came back home and lost to Miami on a last second foul on a 3 point shooter after leading by 7 with about a minute to play. A complete disaster of a week for a team that had seemed to have finally found their footing, and now they are still going to be looking for a big win down the stretch to really cement themselves as a tourney team this year. They have 3 remaining chances, with UNC/Duke coming to Raleigh and then a trip to Virginia in there as well. If they go 0-3 in those games, but beat ND and Stanford, they probably will still be in as they have the 3 Q1 wins and would have 9 Q2 wins at that point. It could be fairly close though at that point, so we’ll say bare minimum finish for them to be ok is 2-3, but 3-2 will be the finish that actually makes you feel confident heading into Selection Sunday. They have just 1 game this week to try and get back on track as they host UNC who will be without star Caleb Wilson. Great timing, but play like they did this past week and there’s no guaranteed they win regardless of Wilson being out.
Miami (FL) (35) – Proj. 8 seed
Miami has a solid case for the best week of any team on the watch as they picked up two gigantic Q1 wins to double their Q1 win total and go from fringe tourney team to solidly in at this point. They first took down UNC at home in a game they never trailed and then erased a 7 point deficit in the final minute to knock off NC State. Malik Reneau has been absolutely dominant, particularly this week as he averaged 21 and 8 in the two wins against pretty good opposing front courts. The strong play lifted them to 8-4 in Q1/2, and while the non-con was full of cupcakes, they have been able to take advantage of enough conference opportunities to put themselves in good position with 6 to play. This is an important week to not slip up and slide back into dangerous territory, as they welcome a desperate VA Tech and then go to Virginia. Not easy games, and certainly a week where you can go 0-2 and all of a sudden you’re back in the true bubble mix. If they can just handle the Hokies at home they’re in a position they can afford a loss @ Virginia. They really just need to handle business at home the rest of the way, with the real key being the finale vs Louisville as one that could seal the deal on this thing. Have to take it one at a time though as they are not out of the woods just yet.
Teetering:
SMU (36) – Proj. 9 seed
Well that’s now 6 Q1 losses in a row now after the Mustangs most recent loss @ Syracuse on Saturday. They led the Cuse by as many as 12 in the 2nd half, but it was all for not as they let is slip through their fingertips as Syracuse hit a game winning layup with 2 seconds to go to down em. That leaves SMU in a dangerous place as they continue to take on water and see team after team surpass them as they’ve gone from 3-1 in Q1 to 3-7. They still are clinging to the wins over A&M/Wake away from home and the home win over UNC. That isn’t a ton of meat on the bone, and while it’s enough for them right now, they’re down to the 9 seed line or even as low as a 10 right now. I could be singing a completely different tune next week if they are able to beat Louisville at home, so I don’t want to be overly negative right now, but Louisville is playing very good basketball right now. If they drop yet another Q1 game I’m going to be getting very worried about whether or not they have the chops to avoid sliding all the way to the NIT. The schedule down the stretch features some other desperate bubble teams, with trips to Stanford/Cal on there as well as Miami coming to Dallas. If they just take care of business at home and finish 3-3 they’ll be fine, but at this point I can’t expect much from a team that has lost 6 in a row in Q1. Again, this week could flip the script, or we continue to see the fall of the Mustangs.
Virginia Tech (58) – Proj. Last 4 In
Nobody on the Watch better encapsulated the roller coaster ride of life on the bubble quite like the Hokies did this week. They started off the week going to Clemson and picking up their biggest win of the season, knocking off a tournament team on the road for a 3rd Q1 victory. That jumped them back into the field, but they very clearly did not handle that success very well as they went from the high of the season to quite possibly the low of the season as they lost to Florida St at home on Saturday by 23. An absolute stunner, and I would say the most disappointing loss of the week by any bubble team, as they finally added to the lone impressive win over Virginia and looked like a certain tourney team if they could just handle business down the stretch. Now, things are back up in the air, as they likely sit barely on the outside, but the margins are super thin between the last 4 in and first 4 out right now so it’s a tough call. They have 3 more big road trips as they go to Miami this week and then UNC/UVA down the road. If they go 0-3 in those games but win the last 2 at home they’ll finish 3-10 in Q1 and 5-1 in Q2. They’d be firmly in the bubble conversations, but I would venture to guess they’d be on the outside looking in now with that Q3 loss also out there. They’re officially right back in the pressure cooker after seemingly getting some reprieve, but they have only themselves to blame. Leaving Miami with a win could reverse it all, and truly keep Hokie fans on the ride of their life.
Outside Looking In:
Cal (61) – Proj. Next 4 Out
Cal had a big chance to actually go above .500 in Q1 despite an 0-3 record in Q1, but fell @ Syracuse in OT early last week to drop to 4-5. That leaves them just 4-8 in Q1/2, and even with the fact that they have 4 Q1 wins, far more than some other teams who are in the field, you absolutely cannot ignore the 0-3 Q2 record at this point. At this point they simply look like a team who got a couple of nights and surprised a few teams, and that likely will be their profile if they can’t prove they can win consistently against decent teams. The schedule the rest of the way is very friendly, but if they want any chance to get in they probably have to run the table the rest of the way. They host Stanford/SMU/Pitt, so that would lift them to 2-3 in Q2, and then they go to GA Tech and Wake. A 5-0 finish would leave them 8-8 in Q1/2 in some combination depending on where Stanford/Wake finish in the NET. That should have them in, but if they lose one of those and fall to just 7-9, there’s no telling where they would fall, especially if they happen to lose a Q2 game and are just 1-4 in that category. It’ll be a weird resumé to place, but we’re only going to have to worry about it if they can go on a run down the stretch here. It starts with the one matchup this week with a classic ACC showdown between Stanford and Cal, with seriously major bubble implications.
Stanford (70) – Proj. In the Hunt
Stanford and their hope of an at-large bid are now on life support as they lost yet again on Saturday, this time @ Wake Forest. They are now just 3-6 since Chisom Okpara was lost to injury, and barring a major run down the stretch this write up is all for not. However, that path still does exist, even with the low probability of success, they still have 4 Q1 wins and overall are 6-7 in Q1/2. They do have the 3 Q3 losses they are trying to overcome, but the schedule still offers enough for there to still be a chance, albeit very slim. I’m looking for a 4-1 finish bare minimum for them to stay in the race, as that would give them 2 more Q2 wins to lift them to 4-3 there and then they’d also grab 1 Q1 win to finish 5-5 there. At 9-8 with 5 Q1 wins they would have to be in consideration, even with the 3 Q3 losses. That kind of run would also hopefully give them a strong enough case without Okpara to not be discarded simply because of that injury, a la 2025 West Virginia. It’s a long perilous road but it’s a workable path nonetheless, and it starts this week with a trip to Cal. That’s their only game, and a loss wouldn’t knock them out but it would mean they would have 0 margin for error the rest of the way. How about that for pressure? Such is life on the bubble.
–Big Ten–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Wisconsin (33) – Proj. 7 seed
While there are other teams out there who had pretty good wins, I’m certain nobody did as much for there resumé as the Wisconsin Badgers did this week. They added two top-15 wins, with the first one @ Illinois adding to their short list of ultra impressive wins. They are absolutely rolling offensively, as the backcourt duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd are en fuego right now, combining for over 100 points in the 2 wins. For those unsure, the 2nd big win was a blowout of Michigan State in Madison, bringing the Badgers Q1 win total to 3 on the season. While 3 doesn’t sound impressive, t’s as strong a 3 as there is as they have road wins over Michigan/Illinois and the win over Sparty. That vaults them as high as a 7 seed right now, and if they can just win the games they’re supposed to the rest of the way they should be comfortably in come Selection Sunday. With that said, this is the Bubble Watch after all, and we know all too well things don’t go that smoothly for teams who find themselves here at this time of year. They have a trip to Columbus up next that is very dangerous as the Buckeyes are needing every win they can get as they scratch and claw to get on the right side of things. Then they host Iowa, who may be in a similar situation if they lose another one to Nebraska. It’s a tricky week, especially after the success of this week. I know I have become tainted by covering the bubble, as most fans would see their level of play and this week as a relief and easy 2-0, but things just aren’t that simple around here.
Teetering:
Iowa (27) – Proj. 9 seed
There were a few disastrous weeks by teams on the watch, and the Iowa Hawkeyes were certainly on the podium in that contest. They kicked off the week going to lowly Maryland and losing, to give the Terrapins their 3rd win in the Big 10 and adding a Q3 loss to the Hawkeye resumé. Then, in what seemed like an obvious bounce back big win opportunity, they got dominated pillar to post at home by Purdue to fall to just 2-6 in Q1. Is that the best these Hawkeyes have? Not good enough, and while they have been riding high for a long time on their high NET rating, that is plummeting and it looks like bracketologists are finally noticing. Right now they have road wins over IU/Washington in Q1 and then home wins over UCLA/USC to give them a couple more over tournament teams. I think they are now a lot closer to the bubble cut line than many are still giving credit to, and while I definitely think they’re still in the field, the margin by which that’s true has never been smaller. The good news about playing in the Big 10 is there are opportunities around every corner, and as down as you can feel one week you can bounce right back and be in a completely different position the next. What I’m referencing here is the matchup with Nebraska in Iowa City that awaits. Respond well and knock off the Huskers and all this talk about being on the cut line will seem silly. Lose that though, they then have to head to Madison to play a Wisconsin team that has beating Illinois/Michigan St their last 2 games. All of a sudden Iowa could be 2-8 in Q1 and absolutely reeling. I’m not saying the Nebraska game is a must-win, but pressure is mounting.
USC (48) – Proj. 9 seed
USC slipped a little this week with the loss @ Ohio St, but once again they weren’t healthy as Chad Baker-Mazara didn’t play. The positive they have seen over the past few games is the play of young FR Alijah Arenas, as we pointed out last week. He continued his strong play with 25 in the loss in Columbus, but that’s now 3 straight games that he’s scored 24+. They should be getting Baker-Mazara back sometime soon, so him paired with the emerging FR will make the Trojans all the more dangerous. Until then, the reality is they’re just 2-5 in Q1, and while the 7-1 record in Q2 is very strong, they certainly are going to need to add more down the stretch to not fall out of the field completely. They have a great opportunity to do just that this week as they welcome Illinois to LA. Knock off the Illini and they have their signature win that would help to solidify them as a tourney team, although that likely won’t be all they need in order to get in. They have a can’t-lose game with Oregon in LA after that, so a 2-0 week and there is a big weight lifted off of the shoulders of Muss and co. Lose to Illinois though and they may slip out of the field if other teams take advantage of chances. They still have 1 more home Q1 chance with Nebraska down the road, but at some point you have to take advantage as 1 Q1 win is not going to get it done. It’s go time for the Trojans.
UCLA (40) – Proj. 10 seed
The Bruins played just once this week and it was a humbling trip to Ann Arbor as they got pummeled in the 2nd half, losing the game by 30 after trailing by just 2 at the half. They got an in person glimpse at what it looks like for the apex predator to unleash his full might on you, and it turns out they aren’t much of a match. While that isn’t too big of a surprise, it’s not too relevant as we’ve seen team after team fall victim to the Wolverines in a similar fashion, and at the end of the day for UCLA it’s just another Q1 road loss. They stay right there on right side of the bubble, part of my Last 4 Byes group as they have a tiny gap between them and the real tension point with the Dayton/NIT bound groups. Things are not going to get too much easier this week as they head down the road to Michigan St next and then return to LA to host Illinois. Quite the 3 game stretch, but if they can come away with 1 W in those 3 they will have widened that gap a smidge more. I’m circling the Illinois game at home obviously, but Michigan St has looked very vulnerable lately, so both are possible, even if unlikely. The most likely honestly at this point is that they go 0-2 this week and slide into the danger zone as that would drop them to just 2-8 in Q1 and overall just 6-10 in Q1/2. If that is what happens they’ll be right in the crosshairs of the bubble cut line with 4 to go. So, while it’s 2 very difficult games in order to go dancing you have to earn your way.
Indiana (34) – Proj. 10 seed
That went just as expected for the Hoosiers this past week, as they handled Oregon at home with ease and then went to Illinois and took a bit of a beating as they lost by 20. It wasn’t embarrassing by any means, but it does drop them to 2-8 in Q1 and just 4-9 in Q1/2. They are a bit higher on the matrix than that record suggests on the surface, but those 2 wins do happen to be Q1(A) so I guess that helps to balloon them a bit. I just can’t see 4 Q1/2 wins holding up come Selection Sunday, so the Hoosiers certainly have some work to do as we hit the home stretch. The only time they play until we meet again is Friday night @ Purdue, so this situation is likely going to get worse before it gets better, although they could in theory pull of the sweep of Purdue. Let’s assume they lose that and fall to 2-9 in Q1 with 4 to play. I think they would need at bare minimum to finish 3-1, meaning wins over N’Western/Minnesota at home and then either vs Sparty or @ Ohio St. That still would only be 3-10 in Q1 and maybe only 2-1 in Q2 still if N’Western stays outside the top-75. Do we really think 5-11 in those 2 would be good enough? If it’s a win over Michigan St that will likely help more, but honestly I’m not going to feel all that confident unless they find a way to finish 4-1, including the game this week @ Purdue. It’s a tough road to ho, but they just don’t have the quality wins to stack up in my opinion. Let’s not forget everyone else on the bubble has chances to add and pass the Hoosiers. It’s nut cutting time in Bloomington, no way around it.
Ohio St (38) – Proj. First 4 Out
The Buckeyes continue to be the extreme when it comes to that classic group of teams that are desperately seeking a big win down the stretch. After the loss this week to Virginia they now sit 0-8 in Q1, but on the flip side if you look outside of Q1(A) they’re 16-2. All of a sudden that starts to stack up when you’re looking at some of these mid-majors who they are contending with like St. Mary’s, New Mexico and Santa Clara. So many of these bubble teams either have very little when it comes to big time wins or they have a litany of bad losses dragging them down. My theory will remain to be that the committe, especially this year, will look past the bad losses and award the teams who have picked up multiple quality wins a la TCU/Texas/Missouri. That leaves the Buckeyes and that aforementioned group desperately seeking at least 1 win they can hang their hat on. Ohio St is in a better position when it comes to opportunities, as they still have 3 remaining, with the 3/1 meeting with Purdue in Columbus the clear target. However, even if they do win that, they still go to Michigan St and Iowa, drop both of those and would we think 1-10 in Q1 is going to do it? Even if we presume home wins over Wisconsin and IU moving them to 7-1 in Q2, it wouldn’t be obvious. I think that’s the bare minimum they have to do to be in the conversation, pick up 1 of the 3 Q1 wins and sweep the rest, good for a 4-2 finish. Anything less than that is likely a trip to the NIT and a new HC. Safe to say the stakes are high.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
BYU (20) – Proj. 6 seed
I honestly don’t even know where to begin with BYU right now. They went 2-0 this week, but it was ugly. I mean, can you really get excited about a narrow win @ Baylor and then going to OT at home vs Colorado? Then you see the news, Richie Saunders, one of their big 3 that has been a critical piece this year, tore his ACL. I mean you still have Dybantsa and Rob Wright, but they were taking on water prior to this injury. We could be looking at a major slide here for BYU if the Saunders injury causes a major disruption, as they play 5 of 6 in Q1 to finish the season, including matchups with Arizona and Iowa St this week. The optimistic outlook would be that they would rally around their guy and play tighter and more connected with that common goal. Maybe in a twisted way it’s the exact thing that could bring everything back together? I have my doubts, especially when that crusade begins with a trip to an Arizona team that is going to be licking their chops after a disappointing back-to-back losses. Then they host Iowa St. That game might be their last gasp this season, as I just am not confident they can get their mojo back after that kind of week coming on the heels of Saunders going down. The question may then become, will the committee feel they have enough data points to judge them without Saunders? I would guess not, but if it’s really bad it may be enough to really put them in danger. For now, we’ll just see how they respond to the adversity before we go full panic mode.
UCF (50) – Proj. 9 seed
Just a couple of weeks ago we saw UCF beat Texas Tech to move to 17-4 and look like a sure fire tournament team. We now sit with the Knights at 17-7, with the latest home loss to West Virginia almost assuredly being the low point of the seasons. The two losses prior were at least on the road, and while the blowout loss @ Cincy was a warning sign that we called out here, I genuinely did not expect them to lose at home to the Mountaineers. That was a classic bounce back spot and they fell flat. At this point we can’t assume or expect a W in any game going forward. That’s not a prediction of them losing out, but as generous as the schedule is down the stretch, the W. Virginia home game was equally as friendly. They are still in a position to be in the field, but we have to remember they have a very top heavy resumé, with home wins over Kansas/Texas Tech and the road win over A&M carrying the load. Everywhere else the resumé is pretty weak, with 0 wins in the upper tier of Q2, a sub-200 ranked NCSOS and 50th or worse in the 3 major analytic rankings. The big wins are good enough right now, but make no bones about it, this recent stretch has put them right in the thick of the bubble conversations. Just as I mentioned earlier, this week is very weak in Big 12 terms, as they host TCU and then go to Utah. This has to be a 2-0 week if they want to stop taking on water, as anything less is going to add another loss outside of Q1 and continue this downward slide.
Teetering:
TCU (45) – Proj. Last 4 In
If it wasn’t for the Wisconsin Badgers I would be crowning TCU as the team of the week. They’ll have to settle for Silver, but they have to be thrilled to have notched a top-10 win over Iowa St and another Q1 win as they went to Stillwater and beat Oklahoma St in OT. That’s now 3 straight wins since the embarrassing blowout loss @ Colorado, after which I questioned the effort and was sure Jamie Dixon was doing much more than just that. Whatever message he delivered, consider it received, as they have been playing very good basketball and have surged to one of the last 4 spots in the field by my estimation. I know they have bad losses, at least one in every quadrant, but in my eyes the committee rewards big time wins, in spite of bad losses, especially with high volume, see 2024 Texas A&M. The Frogs now have wins over Iowa St/Florida/Wisconsin as well as sweeps over bubble teams Baylor/Oklahoma St. Give them a 4-2 finish to the season and I think the Frogs are definitely dancing. That could give them 3-4 more Q2 wins, even with 2 Q1 losses. 10-9 in Q1/2 should be more than enough, with a good start being even a split this week as they head to UCF and then host W. Virginia. They get Arizona St and K-State after that, so they really are prime to go on a run and make this a sure thing. Just can’t have that team that played in Boulder show up the rest of the way.
West Virginia (54) – Proj. First 4 Out
I was a bit pessimistic about the Mountaineers last week but they pulled a rabbit out of their hat on Saturday and beat UCF in Orlando to really jump back into the thick of these conversations. Jasper Floyd and Honor Huff combined for 38 points in what was close to a must-win as they really would have fallen pretty far out of the hunt if they dropped another one. They still aren’t on the right side of things, being under .500 in both Q1/2 isn’t going to get it done, but they have chances left with 5 of 6 either Q1/2 down the stretch. They control their own destiny, and at this point that’s all you can ask for when you’re a team who had very little expectation to be in this position heading into November. They own a win over Kansas to add to that win @ UCF along with 2 other Q1 wins, it’s just that 2-3 Q2 record that needs work. Every win is critical when you’re in this position, but they don’t have to run the table to get in. Beat Utah first this week and then maybe you steal one @ TCU. If not, they still have BYU/UCF at home and K-State on the road. Win those three, or even beat Oklahoma St in Stillwater, and they’re going to be in a great spot. All of that is just a projection though, as spots can dry up with bid stealers and/or suprising runs from other bubble teams. So however you slice it, they’re on the ropes.
Outside Looking In:
Oklahoma St (72) – Proj. Next 4 Out
Similar to UCF, the Pokes have followed up a massive home win (vs BYU) a couple of weeks ago with a very disappointing 3 game losing streak. This week was such a massive opportunity to solidify themselves and carry that momentum from beating BYU, but they dropped one @ Arizona St and then came back home and lost to TCU in a game they never led. It did go to OT, but they really were playing catch up the entire game, even when they were tying it up late it was a furious comeback and then in OT they immediately got down and could never recover. They are now a good ways out of it with just the 1 Q1 win and now 3 losses in Q2, not to mention the ugly metrics and NCSOS. It’s not a pretty picture, but it could clear way up if they can find a way to knock off Kansas at home this week. I am not going to predict it, but this time of year crazy things happen as some teams are playing for their tournament lives and other teams are just trying to get to the finish line in tact. That matches this game with Kansas to a tee, as the Jayhawks are coming off a tough loss @ Iowa St and have to stay on the road. Not easy, and while they may be hungry to bounce back, it’s the dog days of February and the Pokes should come out with their hair on fire. We’ll see if that emotional edge is enough to make up for the talent gap, but if it’s not they will be down to Houston/Arizona as their chances at a 2nd Q1 win. Tough sledding.
Baylor (47) – Proj. In the Hunt
The Baylor Bears are now clinging by their last finger as they dangle on the edge of the bubble cliff after dropping 2 major opportunities this week. Honestly it’s wild I even have them on here right now as they’re just 3-10 in their last 13 games, but they have 3 Q1 wins, a combined 6-12 Q1/2 record and decent metrics. The overall record is ugly thanks to a top-10 SOS, but they have a legitimate chance to finish 4-2 with losses to Arizona/Houston and 3 more Q1/2 wins. It feels like that still wouldn’t be enough considering how the committee has punished these teams who have racked up so many losses in previous years (2023 Oklahoma St, 2024 Oklahoma, 2025 Indiana), which is the category I expect Baylor to end up in, but with this weak of a bubble you just never know. Either way, this week is a must go 2-0 to stay on the watch type of week, as they go to K-State and then host Arizona St. That would add most likely 2 Q2 wins, possibly a Q1 if the Sun Devils can hang on to the top-75. The path is far too narrow to be losing to lowly teams like that, so it’s officially do or die time for the Bears this week, as a loss is effectively an elimination game unless they plan on beating Houston/Arizona.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Villanova (30) – Proj. 7 seed
Villanova is just cruising along right now, handling their business while adding bits and pieces to their resumé as they continue to add at best Q2 wins. This week it was a home win over Marquette, good for nothing, and then a road win over Creighton which brought them to 6-0 in Q2. That’s just life in the Big East right now as basically all you have are UConn and St. John’s to try and knock off. They are 0-2 in those games thus far, so as we’ve said they’re just trying to avoid black stains on the resumé until they get the rematches with those 2. This week marks the first chance at revenge as they host UConn on Saturday. They went blow for blow with them back in January in what was ultimately an OT loss. They have to navigate a tricky trip to Xavier prior to that, so they can’t get caught looking ahead in that one as the Musketeers are frisky, just ask St. John’s. Saturday is the date we’ve had circled for weeks now though as it’s the last home Q1 chance left and the only one aside from a trip to St. John’s. It’s not a must-win by any means, Nova has 2 Q1 wins, but none of them are Q1(A). So suffice to say a marquee top-10 win would be just what they need to stave off any real bubble danger come Selection Sunday.
Teetering:
Outside Looking In:
Seton Hall (49) – Proj. In the Hunt
It’s unfortunate but while the Pirates probably feel much more confident after going 2-0 this week, it really is only good enough to keep them distantly in the conversation. The win @ Butler on Sunday did lift them to 5-2 in Q2 which helps, but it doesn’t move the needle positively as much as it prevents a further slide. They simply need to continue to win basically every game, with maybe a 4-1 finish being enough to keep them alive, albeit still likely out. They have Georgetown and DePaul at home this week, 2 wins that would be Q3, again not moving the needle. Then they go to UConn, the one they can lose. Then the final week of the season would be the critical juncture, as they go to Xavier (Q2) and then host St. John’s (Q1). Win both of those and they would enter the Big East tournament 2-6 in Q1 and 6-2 in Q2. That is a somewhat compelling case, especially if the rest of the bubble continues to miss out of big win opportunities. It’s a long shot I will admit, but that is the path forward for the Pirates. This week has to be those 2 wins, and while I call them easy they certainly can’t treat them like that or we’ll be just removing them altogether. They’re still on the ropes, but they’ve been landing counters to stay alive, have to keep it up.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Kentucky (28) – Proj. 6 seed
Not a huge update for Kentucky this week as they only played @ Florida, a 9 point loss in a game they never led. They did battle hard, but Florida is rising to another level right now, so it’s certainly not a bad loss and they remain right on the 6 seed line in solid position but not quite lockable yet. They have the 5 Q1 wins, with 3 of them Q1(A) so it would take a monumental collapse to completely miss out, we just want to see a little more in order to lock em up, 17 wins after all wouldn’t be a guarantee. They have a fairly straight forward game vs Georgia this week in a perfect bounce back spot before they go to Auburn in what will be a massive one for the Tigers. I’ve said it previously but this time of year is ripe with upsets because of the difference in mentality, and that will be on display for Kentucky this week as they aren’t playing for their tournament lives the way Georgia and even Auburn is right now. Both of those teams are going to be hungry for wins, so UK has to match that hunger to avoid a disappointing 0-2 week. I don’t see Georgia rolling into Lexington and winning, but we can’t forget Mizzou did exactly that 6 weeks ago. They clearly picked up their level of play since then, going 8-2, but they just can’t let themselves slide back into that laissez-faire mentality again. All of that to say, the Wildcats are on the verge of locking, just some caution for at least one more week.
Tennessee (22) – Proj. 6 seed
Tennessee did a lot to stave off any doubts about this team slipping into a dangerous territory as they quietly picked up 2 Q2 wins this week. They first went to Mississippi St and then beat LSU at home, 2 teams in the cellar in the SEC, but in this conference even those teams can pose a problem. Nate Ament continues to be the difference for this team, along with their increasingly stingy defense that in SEC play only ranks behind Florida. They’re now 6-1 in their last 7 games, and while the 4-7 Q1 record doesn’t look crazy good on the surface, all 4 of those wins are Q1(A), and that 5-0 record in Q2 puts major separation between them and the true bubble teams right now. They really just have to hold serve, maybe picking up one more key win to really seal the deal on this thing. They host Oklahoma this week, one they should win, and then they have a massive in state showdown @ Vandy. That game really feels like a measuring stick for both, as Vandy has tripped up agains the top teams in the SEC so far, despite having a very good resumé. Regardless of the impact on either teams resumé, the in state rivalry and intrigue for who is for real makes that one must-watch tv. For our purposes here, a loss doesn’t hurt them too bad, but a win locks em up.
Auburn (32) – Proj. 8 seed
Auburn has now lost 4 straight Q1 games, with the latest one @ Arkansas being without Keyshawn Hall for what is being described as conduct detrimental to the team essentially. That’s a horrible sign, and evidently comes on the heels of him being benched in the loss earlier in the week down the stretch as they lost to Vandy at home. It was a tough schedule stretch so I feel like some grace would usually be applicable, but with that hanging out there it’s hard to have much confidence in this group right now. Resumé wise they are in a peculiar position as they are just 14-11 but the schedule ranks as the toughest in the country as they’re 12-3 outside of Q1(A). We have teams that haven’t even played a Q1(A) game on the Watch, meanwhile Auburn has played 10 of them. I find it hard to believe they get severely punished for the bad record considering how much of it is due to playing that ridiculous of a schedule, so I probably have them a bit higher on the seed list than others. They have the 2 elite wins @ Florida and over St. John’s on a neutral court, plus wins over Arkansas and NC State. It’s hard to know where they are mentally, or at what point Hall is going to be allowed to return, but at full strength I think they have a real shot to finish 4-2 and be an easy at-large ticket. Without Hall or with real deeper locker room problems, I have no idea how far this could fall, so in terms of drama Auburn may be the premier watch in the SEC right now. It starts with what should be an easy W @ Miss St, and then a big one when they host UK. This could go all sorts of directions, just get your popcorn.
Teetering:
Texas A&M (43) – Proj. 10 seed
A few weeks back I ranted and raved about Bucky Ball and how A&M was needing more attention for what they were doing after starting 7-1 in the SEC. Well, all of that is beginning to unravel as the Aggies have now dropped 4 in a row, with this week’s loss to Mizzou at home being the real red flag. Losing to Bama/Vandy/Florida you can explain away, this is a tough league after all and those are all slotted as 4 seeds or better right now. But when you drop one to a fellow bubble team at home, you can’t be shocked when people start to dismiss you as a good team. That debate aside, the resumé is also now looking fragile as they had a horrific non-con schedule and dropped even the minor chances they had, so they really have just the SEC wins to their name. The trio of road wins over Texas/Auburn/Georgia are keeping them afloat, but that’s it in terms of top-50 wins to their name. If they keep dropping games they are going to end up down there with the UCLA’s and Indiana’s of the world, or even worse, the mid-majors like St. Mary’s/San Diego St/Santa Clara grouping. I think the 3 road wins in the SEC will carry them above that group, but if they truly add nothing more in Q1 I think they could fall all the way to as low as Dayton, with bid stealers still to come potentially. They of course can end the 4 game losing streak and bounce back, but it’ll take more than that as the next one up is lowly Ole Miss coming to College Station. It’s a good chance to get rolling again, but it doesn’t add much and has 5 Q1/2 games following it. If they go to Oklahoma on Saturday and win I’ll back off my pessimism, but lose that one and they’re in hot water.
Texas (37) – Proj. 10 seed
The Longhorns continue to roll as they played just once since we last met but it was a massive road win over Mizzou to extend their winning streak to 4. Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietaitis continue to carry the load inside, but honestly it’s been the improvement defensively that’s been the key, despite the 92nd ranking in Kenpom. They have allowed less than 70 points in 4 of their last 5 wins, and in most of their losses they’ve allowed over 80. Clearly they are going to be able to score the rock, it’s all about defense for this group. Shifting to resumé they are a very weird team to place as they are 5-6 in Q1 but just 1-2 in Q2 and also own a Q3 loss. It’s going to change a ton also down the stretch as all 6 of their remaining games are Q1/2 with 4 of them being Q1. So, there’s a chance they slide right back out of this thing, especially if they can’t grab the 2 Q2 games. If they do improve to 3-2 it gets much prettier, even if they do drop to 5-10 in Q1, I think they would have a great case. That’s merely a 2-4 finish, so there’s actually more wiggle room than you may think for a team that’s a 10 seed right now, but that’s what happens when you have 5 Q1 wins and just need to improve Q2. It’s all about the final picture you’re presenting to the committee, and right now I think they’re as well positioned as any of these bubble teams in the SEC to be looking pretty. The final stretch starts with hosting LSU for one of the Q2 game and then a trip to a reeling Georgia team. Maybe they just go 2-0 this week and really separate themselves.
Georgia (39) – Proj. 11 seed (Last bye)
I’m willing to say Georgia is in a free fall right now as they’ve lost 5 of their last 6, with this week’s blowout losses to Florida and Oklahoma (Huh?) driving me to this point. I understand losing to Florida, they’re elite right now, but going to Norman and getting blown out by the Sooners when you desperately need to hold serve and get a big win is a bubble disaster. They still have enough meat on the bone to be in the field right now but it’s hard to have confidence they’re going to snap back and save this thing in the long term. The optimistic view would be they played without Jeremiah Wilkinson, but is he going to keep them from allowing Oklahoma to score 92 points? You can explain it away if you want, but ultimately the only way they really can do that is if they start winning games. They are sitting 3-6 in Q1, with 3 more on the docket, so 3-9 wouldn’t be a slam dunk by any means. It doesn’t look like anyone knows when Wilkinson will be back, but with or without him they will be going to Lexington trying not to lose yet again, with Texas coming to Athens right after. If they can’t find a way to win either of those then I’d see them at best in the Last 4 In, so the pressure is building at the same time their leading scorer is out. Horrible combo as we enter the back half of February.
Missouri (66) – Proj. Last 4 In
Mizzou had a roller coaster week, fitting for life on the bubble, but as good as the win @ A&M was the loss at home to Texas in blowout fashion essentially erased it. They are now 3-4 in both Q1 and Q2, giving them one of the weirdest resumés out there, making it as unclear as possible to predict where they should land if the season ended today. I gave them the edge of the mid-major teams like St. Mary’s/San Diego St/Santa Clara because of the Florida/Kentucky/Auburn/A&M wins which dwarf what those teams have in the big win column. I think that tracks more to what the committee has historically done, but I honestly wouldn’t blame you if you said that 3-4 Q2 record should be more of a penalty than I’m giving credit for. It’s a tough discussion, but lucky for Mizzou they have opportunities to make this a no doubter. They finish with 5 Q1 games and another Q2, so they could slide up to 4 or 5 Q1 wins and even up Q2 at 4-4 and be in a much better spot. I don’t know what combination of wins would happen as they’re all tough, but let’s say they beat Oklahoma on the road that means they need to pick off one of Vandy/Tennessee/Arkansas at home to get to 5 Q1 wins. Add the Mississippi St road win and that’s the path that I would feel somewhat confident in. Obviously more than that is gravy, but given they just lost to Texas by 17 I think expecting more than what I just laid out is a bit naive. Vandy comes to town next so it’s go time for the Tigers.
Outside Looking In:
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Utah St (23) – Proj. 7 seed
Utah St appears to be cruising to the finish line as they picked up 2 more easy wins this week to extend their winning streak to 7 with wins over Fresno St and Memphis. They scored 90+ in each of their wins as this offense continues to hum, entering the top-20 on that end per Kenpom. They clearly look like the most dangerous team in this conference and with an 8-2 Q1/2 record look like a sure fire tournament team right now. The reason they aren’t locked at this point though is they still have 6 left that are all going to be Q1/2, so that pretty record could take some hits down the stretch. If they take on too much damage it could get interesting, especially with trips to Nevada/San Diego St who are going to be dying for a big win. I think they can afford to take several losses down the stretch, so I wouldn’t worry too much, but they could really wrap this thing up this week if they can handle Boise at home and then go to Nevada and win another Q1 game.
Teetering:
San Diego St (41) – Proj. First 4 Out
The Aztecs were able to continue to keep pace with Utah St in the conference race this week as they picked up another win over Nevada at home, keeping them tied atop the MWC at 12-2. Unfortunately, the don’t quite have the resumé that the Aggies do at this stage, so they are right there see-sawing back and forth from Last 4 In to First 4 Out, depending where you look. It’s hard to have a team whose best wins are over Nevada/New Mexico. It’s not a great group of wins thanks to them really struggling out of the gate and losing all of their tough non-con games. They have 3 more Q1 games that we’re going to have circled, as they host Utah St and go to New Mexico/Boise. If they can win 2 of those games and jump to 3 Q1 wins I would feel confident in having them in, especially if it’s a win over Utah St which would be their highest ranked win to date. If that’s the only one they grab they’d have an outside chance, but would still just be 2-6 in Q1, not great. So, I’m looking for a 5-1 finish from the Aztecs to feel like they have a good chance heading into conference tourney week. This week they just need to hold serve as they get Grand Canyon at home and then go to Colorado St.
New Mexico (44) – Proj. First 4 Out
New Mexico bounced back in a major way this week with the win @ Grand Canyon, and while the Lopes dropped out of the top-75 to make that merely a Q2 win, it still was huge to stop the mini skid and get back in the W column. They were powered by Jake Hall, a FR who in a year with youngsters shining everywhere deserves a bit of shine as he has been one of the best shooters and scorers in this conference, shooting 43% from 3 on pretty high volume. His play, along with their defensive effort, got them back on track and now they have a reprieve this week as they host Air Force (respect the troops) and then go to Fresno. The latter is a bit trickier but still there’s no way to justify anything other than a 2-0 week when with that kind of schedule as you’re fighting for your tournament lives. The last 2 weeks of the season are going to be the pivot point, so they just have to stay the course and avoid disaster this week, with 3 of 4 being Q1/2 chances down the stretch. I’m looking for a 5-1 finish to get back in this thing, so while it may feel like a ho-hum week every win is critical given their position right now.
Outside Looking In:
Nevada (59) – Proj. In the Hunt
The Wolfpack are down to their last gasp as they are just running out of the required chances to make a real run at this thing. They failed their only test this week as they went to San Diego St and lost, no real shame there, but it drops them to 0-5 in Q1. Honestly I’m not even sure if they run the table if it would be enough, but they at least would be up closer to the cut line with the MW tourney offering more chances to add to the resumé. That’s what they have to do though, as they are now the only team on the watch where I’m asking them to win out in order to stay in it. They have the chance to add home wins over Utah St and New Mexico, with the Aggies visiting on Saturday. That is a must-win, well they all are at this point, but we’ll just drop them off the watch if they can’t pick that one up. You absolutely have to have at least 1 Q1 win if you want to be in real contention, and that is the only one on the docket until potentially the MW tourney. If they do win out that would put them 1-5 in Q1 and as much as 6-2 in Q2 as they have trips to Wyoming/UNLV that could tack on some Q2 wins depending on where they finish in NET. It’s as do or die as you can get, but here they are still on the watch so that’s at least some thread of hope.
–WCC–
Locks:
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Saint Mary’s (26) – Proj. Last 4 In
St. Mary’s is quite the case right now as almost universally they are viewed as in the dance right now, but I’m having a real hard time justifying their presence outside of NET ranking. They held their ground this week by beating Pepperdine and then picking up a Q2 win @ Pacific, but there’s no getting around the fact they’re just 0-3 in Q1. They also only have the 1 win in the upper tier of Q2, so this is truly a mid-major level resumé that we are just not used to seeing from the Gaels. It doesn’t come close to matching their top-30 ranking in the NET, but for those that are big fans of WAB they are ranked highly enough by that metric to be in the field. I suppose whatever algorithm goes into that weighs low level Q2 games highly enough, and maybe it’s just the lack of bad losses lifting them up. I can’t really explain it based on what I’ve seen the committee do historically, but right now the consensus is that a team with 0 top-50 wins is in the field, as high as a 9 seed. I have them going to Dayton, somewhat reluctantly but admittedly the strength of the bubble around them is lackluster so maybe they could squeak in. Ultimately, I’m going to stand by what I’ve been saying for weeks. If they want to feel safe on Selection Sunday they need to win out, specifically with a sweep of Gonzaga/Santa Clara the last week of the season. If they lose to Gonzaga in particular, that would leave them 0-4 in Q1, is the committee really going to put a team in the field without a Q1 win? That would be unprecedented. A bet I’m certainly not going to make if it comes down to it, so while you won’t hear storylines about the Gaels this week, all eyes should be fixed on Moraga CA next week as they fight for their tournament lives.
Santa Clara (42)
I feel for Santa Clara as I’m writing this, as they really did go blow for blow with Gonzaga on Saturday night, they just couldn’t get enough stops down the stretch to pull out a win. They were able to score with them for the most part, it was just the Zags’ athleticism was too much, as they lived in the paint, getting to the line and shooting 72% on two point shots. It was a valiant effort, that really had them pass the eye test for me in terms of being a tourney team, but we all know it doesn’t just come down to that on Selection Sunday. They now sit 1-4 in Q1 and 6-1 in Q2, which is pretty strong. The issue is the Q2 wins are on the weaker side, with the best really being the road win @ Xavier. The race for the last couple of spots is likely going to come down to mid-majors with clean resumés that lack top end wins vs power conference teams with a host of losses outside of Q1 but some big time Q1 wins they can hang their hat on. Generally I would lean toward the committee rewarding the big wins, especially Q1(A), but Santa Clara isn’t completely out of it right now as they still have another Q1 chance as they can sweep St. Mary’s next week. I’m sure the feeling is a bit deflated heading into this week but the reality is there’s still a path, it’s just likely going to take one more big win after what should be a win @ San Francisco this week.
–A-10–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
St. Louis (17) – Proj. 8 seed
St. Louis just keeps on charging forward, and in doing so they are slowly climbing up the seed list, with some slotting them as high as a 6 seed. I understand the argument, given the 4-1 record in Q1/2. I just am holding off a bit as they still have some chances to drop games and make it much more interesting. They go to Rhode Island and then host VCU this week, and that one is going to be a marquee game on Friday night as the Rams desperately need to knock off the Bilikens for their own at-large case to really have a fighting chance. They also have tricky trips to Dayton/George Mason after this week, so while things look very good right now, they certainly can’t afford to drop 3 Q2 games and all of a sudden just be 4-4 in Q1/2. I don’t predict that to happen, but when you are a team with your main argument being win % not win volume, a couple of losses can really hurt. So long as they handle their business, they really could even afford to drop one unexpected one, as 6-2 in Q1/2 should be more than enough for them to survive a loss in the A-10 tournament. They are oh so close to seeing this thing through, just have to keep on winning.
Teetering:
Outside Looking in:
VCU (46)
The Rams have now reeled off 9 wins in a row as they essentially are just waiting for an opportunity to strike and land a much needed Q1 W. They are just 0-5 in that category, but this is the long awaited week to turn that 0 into a 1 as they visit St. Louis. Right now their best win would be 57th ranked S. Florida or 58th ranked VA Tech, so suffice to say a road win over a top-25 win is imperative. They first will need to handle business against George Washington, and then be ready to pounce. It’s going to be a tall order going to St. Louis and coming out with a W, but there simply is not a path forward that I can see without picking up a Q1 win, as they likely would only have that opportunity again in the A-10 tourney against the Bilikens, which would almost assuredly be the championship game anyway as they should be seeded 1 and 2. So, the path forward is to simply win out, and then a loss in the A-10 final to St. Louis would leave them 1-5 in Q1 with somewhere around a 6-2 record in Q2. That’s their best case, and there’s not even a high likelihood that would be enough, but it would at least have them right on the outside looking in if it wasn’t good enough so they’ll be in the conversation. None of it really can come to fruition without the win on Friday though, so they should be from the tip playing like their lives depend on it, because they essentially do, unless they want all that pressure to be on the A-10 tourney.
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Miami (OH) (51)
The biggest story of college basketball right now are your Miami RedHawks, who continue to roll through their schedule as they are now 25-0. They are a very balanced group with 5 guys averaging double figures, so credit to HC Travis Steele who has recruited and developed many of these guys, with only a couple of transfers who also were here last season. It’s a great mid-major story, and awesome to see considering how top heavy the sport is feeling in the portal/NIL era. Now, I hate to take the air out of the balloon, but I’m sure you’re aware at this point the schedule is Charmin soft, which unfortunately is very bad news when it comes to evaluating them for an at-large spot. I have already heard the discussions about how there is no way they can be left out if they only lose once or if they go undefeated until the MAC final. But are we actually sure about that? Right now I have very little hope that the committee would give an at-large spot to a team without a top-50 win. They would have benefitted greatly from a trip to Akron, but unfortunately their only matchup with them was at home and is just a Q2 win. It would be an unprecedented resumé I will admit, but it is likely they would be stacked up next to high major teams who would have several top-50 wins. The only way I see it happening is if it’s a close loss to Akron, and even then they need the other bubble resumé’s to be weak. I just don’t see how they would justify to SEC/Big Ten teams who have played a gauntlet of a schedule that a team who played 0 Q1 games is going to get in over them, especially with the metrics evaluating them in the mid-80’s per the prediction metrics like Kenpom. Your only argument is they just didn’t have the chance, but if they lose at any point in Q2, what makes me think they could compete in Q1? That is not what I desire the answer to be, as I think it’d be more fun to have them in, but I just can’t see the committee doing it. I hope we don’t have to find out if I’m right.
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