For those of you new here, Week 1 will give you a full breakdown of what we’re doing. Current bracketology HERE. Most recent Bubble Watch HERE.

There are a couple of notable outliers standing out right now that I do think need to be discussed more in depth, so indulge me for a bit as I dig deeper. We’ll start with Michigan, who right now sits in rarified air as they would be the 3rd best team to enter the tournament since 2002 if the season ended today, if measured by net efficiency++. Obviously, we have made the line for Juggernaut which delineates those teams who have been > 50 Net++ entering the tournament, which has only included 5 teams, all of which made at least the Final 4. Michigan, at 53.03 sits comfortably above that line, and only sits behind last year’s Duke team and 2015 Kentucky. Now, both of those teams lost battles in the Final 4 to other great teams, but that at least means right now we’re looking at a Final 4 or bust situation for this team, as you have to capitalize on being this dominant of a team. Things could still shake up a little bit, but with only 8 games max to go, it looks like we will certainly have a historically dominant team in Michigan entering this year’s dance.

The other team worth diving into right now is Illinois, who would currently rank as the 13th best offense to enter the tournament since 2002, and clear and away the best this season. They have consistently been a topic of conversation around here because of their position in just the ‘Solid’ archetype, with Illini fans willing to throw out this entire exercise simply on that basis alone. I understand that response, but I do want to give some context to the Illinois profile specifically, as they now are at their highest offensive rating to date. When I look at the data set I see a range of teams from Elite all the way to Matadors, with around this level of offense, so if we remove the extremes, as I don’t think the Illini defense will get to Elite but also doubt it falls all the way to matador, we get some interesting data. It pairs down to just 7 teams > 128 Net++, with 3 better than Illinois and 3 slightly below. The 3 above were all around 130 or higher, and 2 of them made it to the title game, with 1 falling in the Elite 8. In the 128 Net++ group that is closer to where Illinois is at right now, it’s a bit more varied, with 1 team winning it all (2015 Duke), one losing in the Sweet 16 and another exiting in the 2nd round. All 6 of those teams ranged from Great to Strong Enough with varied defenses. That’s the closest analytical comps we can come up with. I do think it tells us their ceiling is probably higher than a general ‘Solid’ team because of that explosive offensive ability, but you still see the variation in results that make you hesitate a bit. All in all, if I was choosing my title contenders today, I would draw a line from Nebraska to Purdue, and everyone to the right of it would be my list. That’s 7 teams, with Illinois just sliding in there as a 7th alongside the Elite/Great teams.

When it’s all said and done, we’re looking for the teams most likely to survive a single elimination tournament, and the below is where we see the field right now. Remember, it’s a sliding scale of reliability though, not a perfect prediction. Simply using history to help contextualize the landscape as we march toward the dance.