We are now 3 weeks away from staring at the full bracket, making our picks and gearing up for another wild opening weekend. Until then though we have some things to iron out, with 21 spots still up for grabs (for now) and 36 teams still jockeying for position. It’s going to be a wild ride, and we have some emerging storylines worth the price of admission, as teams like Cincinnati and Florida St have come out of nowhere to get themselves into the fray. We have deep conversations to have when it comes to committee philosophy and what they’re going to do with major conference teams like Ohio St or Auburn, and what that means for the mid-majors like St. Mary’s/Santa Clara/VCU and more. We’re going to get into all of it, but at the end of the day opportunity still knocks for all of these teams, as nothing is set in stone with most teams having 4 games still to play before conference tourney week. For many of these teams, the next 14 days will be the difference between dancing and a trip to the NIT. What a ride it’s going to be, let’s dive into it.
For those new here stick with me, as I explain more about what I’m doing, vets can skip ahead with the buttons below.
So, I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
I have provided below the Quadrant system to help contextualize what I’m referring to when discussing wins. Each conference has a table with the team’s resumé to reference at the beginning, for your own comparison, including the locks. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 60 teams on the Watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/23. Check out my current bracket projection here.
| Quadrant 1 (Q1) | Quadrant 2 (Q2) | Quadrant 3 (Q3) | Quadrant 4 (Q4) |
| Home (1-30) | Home (31-75) | Home (76-160) | Home (161-364) |
| Neutral (1-50) | Neutral (51-100) | Neutral (101-200) | Neutral (201-364) |
| Away (1-75) | Away (76-135) | Away (136-240) | Away (241-364) |
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 23
Locks: 24
Bids Left: 21
Bubble: 36
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
NC State (26) – Proj. 7 seed
NC State picked up a very important win this week by taking down UNC to notch their best win of the season in terms of NET ranked opponent. It does have a bit of an asterisk because neither Caleb Wilson or Henri Veesar played for the Tar Heels, but nevertheless the Wolfpack handled their business. It added a 5th Q1 win which put them right on the brink of locking as they have just 4 to play and are sitting 11-7 overall in Q1/2. The only issue I have with locking them up is the final 4 games are all losable, so a disastrous finish would really put them in jeopardy. They go to Virginia Tuesday and then to Notre Dame. The latter is the one they really need to win to sort of seal the deal, as it would avoid a 3rd Q2 loss and push them to 12 total wins in Q1/2. That would be enough to close this thing up and really only debate exactly what seed line they’ll finish in. I have them as a 7 right now, could be an 8, but either way there are a lot of teams between them and the true cut line. They just need to finish .500 to punch their ticket, with wins @ Notre Dame and Stanford at home, and frankly 1-3 may still be good enough. Pretty easy task comparatively to the rest of the teams on the Watch. For a program that hasn’t sniffed a 7 seed since 2004 when they were a 3 seed, this is quite the statement first season for Will Wade.
Miami (FL) (35) – Proj. 8 seed
This week was sort of a hold serve week for the Hurricanes as they pulled out a narrow victory over VA Tech at home, getting a stop in the dying seconds, and then lost a nail biter @ Virginia. Both games could have gone either way, but coming away from that 1-1 is just fine as they continue to sit around the 8-9 seed line, with plenty of breathing room between them and the real bubble fight. They have a little less meat on the bone than we’d like to see at this point to lock up, but the big strength of their resumé is the lack of bad losses. They do have the win @ NC State giving them a Q1(A) win, plus the win vs UNC and @ Wake to round out the Q1 wins. The tricky part is with only 3 Q1 wins they could still fall quite a bit, with 3 more Q1 games upcoming 3-7 would sure look a lot different. They go to in state rival Florida St this week for one of them, and the Noles have been playing really well of late, winning 6 of 7 including this weekend @ Clemson. If you drop that one, then beat BC at home they would face 2 Q1 wins that I’d like to see them split to really feel comfortable locking them in. Those last two games are @ SMU and then vs Louisville. A very difficult finish to the season, so as good as things look right now the picture absolutely could look a lot different two weeks from now. We’ll see how they handle the homestretch.
Clemson (38) – Proj. 9 seed
I can’t help but feel at least 1% responsible for the last couple of weeks of Clemson basketball, as I came out with strong praise for this team and what they were doing as they sat 20-4 and tied with Duke at 10-1 in the ACC. Since then, they obviously got a bit big for their britches, hearing the praise raining down on them from a small time blogger, and have now lost 4 straight games to send them careening down the seed list. This week was as head scratching a week as we’ve seen from any team in the dance right now, as they not only lost to an average Wake Forest team on the road, they then came home in a massive bounce back spot and lost to a similarly average Florida St team. They were in such a great position, and maybe folks were right to overlook what they had done to start the season, but I’m not sure anyone would have guessed this large of a collapse would have happened. Things are only going to get tougher for the Tigers, as they host Louisville on Saturday and then to begin the final week of the regular season they go to UNC. Their lifeline may end up being the season finale vs GA Tech, as they may need that one to stop the bleeding and keep themselves from falling completely out of the field. Every year we are treated to a dramatic collapse, this season it happens to be at the expense of Clemson fans, but if you’re out there reading this, find you a Wisconsin or Nebraska fan, they know a thing or two about coping with this sort of thing.
SMU (31) – Proj. 9 seed
It was a massive week in Dallas for the Mustangs as SMU was desperately needing a big win to really feel solid in their positioning and they got just what they needed as they took down Louisville. Their backcourt was once again special, as this time Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre combined for 48 points as this high powered offense continues to put up 90+ night after night. They followed that up with a 24 point blowout of BC, giving them that 2-0 week we pointed to as all important to keep distance between themselves and the real danger zone. It also gave them what qualifies as a Q1(A) win, their first of the season, although it’s barely in there so that could change, but still they’re 4-6 in Q1 either way, and 8-8 overall in Q1/2. At this point that is plenty, but they do finish with 4 straight in Q1/2, with 3 games on the road with teams still fighting to work their way into the bubble mix and a home game with Miami. This week they go to Cal and Stanford, who both undoubtedly have this one circled as a big time win chance. The Mustangs are going to the west coast as prey, so while they’re riding high after a big week, it’s very possible they go 0-2 and are all of a sudden in a much more precarious position. They would still be ok, but it would put a lot of pressure on the final week of the season. Pick up one of those wins though and they would be very very close to punching their ticket. A pivotal week to say the least.
Teetering:
Virginia Tech (50) – Proj. First 4 Out
The Hokies had a season changing win slip right through their fingertips this past week, as they went to Miami and blew a late 3 point lead. Tre Donaldson hit a 3 with a minute left to tie the game, then the Hokies turned it over and fouled Donaldson sending him to the line where he hit 1/2. Down 1, the Hokies had a chance to reverse their fortune, as they’d already lost multiple games in the last seconds this year, but Ben Hammond was unable to get a buzzer beating runner to go and VA Tech once again lost in the final seconds. They were able to bounce back from that loss and beat Wake at home, but they still sit just 2-8 in Q1 as they desperately need to add one more to get on the right side of things. It has been a brutal season full of what if’s and blown chances, but at the end of the day they are still alive and still have a chance to flip the script. They have trips to UNC and Virginia left, with a game vs BC in between. The way I see it they need a 2-1 finish to be on the right side of things entering the ACC tourney. If they can’t find a way to steal one of those road Q1 games they will fall to 2-10 in that category and need a huge run in the ACC tourney to have a chance. It’s an uphill climb, but maybe they can catch UNC without Caleb Wilson and steal one. It’s a dire situation, but at the end of the day you just have to be happy to be alive, as hard as that is given all that has transpired this season.
Cal (59) – Proj. Next 4 Out
Cal continues to just hang around the perimeter, not able to crack into the field but still giving themselves a chance if they can go on a run. This week they handled their business at home, beating Stanford to begin the cleanup mission in Q2, jumping to 1-3. They have a unique resumé as we’ve touched on in the past, having 4 big time Q1 wins but going just now 1-3 in Q2 is very ugly. The way I see it their path is to finish the season 4-0 and be pretty solidly in, although close, or a 3-1 finish that would be a could go either way situation. They host SMU on Tuesday for what would likely be a Q2 win to continue to improve that record, and then they host Pitt, not much there. Same goes with next week’s trip to GA Tech, but then another important one as they go to Wake which could put them at 5-5 in Q1. That finish would probably have them in, as I don’t see how the committee wouldn’t reward 5 Q1 wins and a 22-8 overall record from the ACC. If they lose to either Wake or SMU, then they’d have some work to do in the ACC tourney. So much up in the air as others are going to win/lose games we don’t expect, and bid stealers can shrink things, but at this point if you’re a Cal fan you have to know, you need every win the rest of the way. You’re close, but you can’t be dropping games given the level of teams on the docket. It’s do or die time for Cal.
Outside Looking In:
Florida St (74) – Proj. In the Hunt
Let me tell you, I never expected to be writing about Florida St on the Watch, but here we are, after the Noles have now ripped off 6 wins in their last 7 games, they have earned their place. On January 25th they woke up and were 8-12, season feeling over I’m sure, but since then they’ve taken down 4 of the teams you see above them here, including road wins over Miami and Clemson that are Q1(A) and another Q1 road win over VA Tech. Their only loss during this stretch was at home to Virginia by 3 points, a game they led by 9 with under 10 to go, but let it slip away. So, I understand that at 14-13 it looks wild to include them here, but they’re playing very good basketball right now and look like they aren’t slowing down. Robert McCray V deserves the shoutout, as he has been a scoring machine lately, but they’re team defense has been the biggest improvement. Prior to this run you look at their losses and they often were giving up 90+. The last 7 games they have given up 75+ only twice, both wins. What a turnaround, but to be candid, I think they need to win out to have a legit shot without ACC tourney magic, but that feels very realistic given what they’ve done and what is ahead of them. They have home games with Miami and SMU, which would give them two more Q2 wins over top-40 teams, and then road trips to Pitt/GA Tech, childs play compared to what they’ve been doing. I’m telling you, if they finish 18-13 they likely could find themselves in the field. This is the kind of thing we long for around here, so alongside Cincy this is the biggest story we’re watching here. We’ll see if they can pull it off.
–Big Ten–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Iowa (28) – Proj. 8 seed
Well the Iowa Hawkeyes entered this week desperate for a big time win to cement themselves and they grinded one out vs Nebraska. It was ugly, but it was gritty, as they won a low possession, defensive battle over the Huskers, pulling it out 57-52. Bennett Stirtz continued to be the straw that stirs the drink for the Hawkeyes, as he had 25 of the 57, as he played every minute and frankly at times he looks like the only guy for them that can create any offense. He was the same for them later in the week, but it was in a loss as they fell to Wisconsin in Madison, a game played in a much different way stylistically. They couldn’t keep up with the high octane Badgers, giving up 84 points, but ultimately to come away from this week with a Q1(A) win they have to be happy. That lifted them to 3-7 in Q1, and while that’s no sure thing, having now 2 Q1(A) wins and a relatively clean resumé keeps them in good shape. The last week of the season is brutal, as they host Michigan and then go to Nebraska in the rematch, so one would fairly assume two losses there. That puts pressure on this week in my opinion, as they host a desperate Ohio St team and then have a sleepy trip to Penn St. They can’t afford to be slipping up in Q2, as their 5-0 record there is a strength. I don’t think they’ll miss the dance, but losing out would put them too close for comfort, and even a 1-3 finish would be dicey if you add a first game exit in the Big 10 tourney. They’re solidly in, but not lockable at this point.
Teetering:
UCLA (41) – Proj. 10 seed
It was desperation time in Westwood on Saturday night, and after falling behind as much as 23, the Bruins responded, making a furious comeback and ultimately winning on Donovan Dent’s game winning layup at the buzzer in OT. It was an incredible college basketball game, but it would’ve been just another missed opportunity for UCLA if not for Dent’s heroics. He had 14 points and 15 assists, orchestrating the offense for 42 of the 45 minutes, and they needed every last bit of it, as their tourney hopes were beginning to crumble a bit. Now, they’ve added a 2nd top-10 win as they already had the win over Purdue, so they should be considered solidly in right now, although it’s still close with 4 games to go. The schedule is very manageable the rest of the way, as they only leave LA once, going to Minnesota. They have a home and home with USC and they host Nebraska. If they go 3-1 to finish, punch the ticket, but I think even a 2-2 finish would be enough as they would either add 2 Q2 wins or 1 of each, and I still think 3-9 in Q1 could get it done. All of that to say, job well done on Saturday night, but it’s not done just yet. Still have to pick up some wins down the stretch, with USC and Minnesota on deck as two very winnable games they could be sitting pretty with Nebraska coming in next week. We’ll see if they can make it that simple though.
Indiana (36) – Proj. 11 seed (last bye)
Just as we suspected it wasn’t a fun trip for these Hoosiers as they went to rival Purdue and got spanked around in a record setting loss to the Boilers. Ultimately though, a loss is a loss around here, and there’s no real shame in losing on the road to a top-10 team as far as the committee is concerned. The bigger issue is they’re now 4-10 in Q1/2. Many have the Hoosiers comfortably in, but I think this is much closer than people are giving credit, as I think people discount the committee’s emphasis on Q1 win volume and win %, both of which are mega negatives for the Hoosiers. I think they need at bare minimum to finish the regular season 3-1, meaning wins over N’Western/Minnesota at home and then either vs Sparty or @ Ohio St. That still would only be 3-11 in Q1 and maybe only 2-0 in Q2 still if N’Western stays outside the top-75. Do we really think 5-11 in those 2 would be good enough? If it’s a win over Michigan St that will likely help more, but honestly I’m not going to feel all that confident unless they find a way to finish 4-0. I know the Net ranking and predictive metrics like them, but they had no good non-con wins and while the Wisconsin win is looking better and better, the wins are just barely stacking up as it is. Let’s not forget everyone else on the bubble has chances to add and pass the Hoosiers. They can do a ton for themselves this week as they host Michigan St on Sunday. Win that and now we’re talking.
USC (58) – Proj. Last 4 In
The Trojans are in absolute free fall right now as they not only got their teeth kicked in by Illinois in what was a great chance to notch a big time win at home, they followed it up by losing by 1 to lowly Oregon for a devastating Q3 loss (their 2nd). I now have them barely in the field, although I would understand if you had them out, the margins are very thin. What I like about the resumé is they have the road win over Wisconsin as the highlight and then 4 more wins away from home that are Q1 or high level Q2. I think those keep them in right now, but it’s very close with just 4 games left. They have 3 straight Q1 games coming and a final Q2 home game to finish the season as they get UCLA both home and away. This week is the first of those matchups as they go over to Westwood to face the Bruins who are riding high after a big win over Illinois. Then they host Nebraska. I would think they would need to find a way to win one of those to stay on the right side of the bubble when we meet again next week, as 2-10 with 2 Q3 losses is very unlikely to stack up. Whatever the case, they’re directly in the middle of the bubble fight right now, and people are likely going to be split on where they should lie. The good news, they have plenty of chances to turn the narrative around and make it a no doubter.
Ohio St (37) – Proj. First 4 Out
Ohio St is still awaiting that coveted 1st Q1 win, and while the home win this week vs Wisconsin was their best to date, it still isn’t that marquee win to flip them on to the right side. I know people will scoff at the system that is in place, since Wisconsin and Northwestern are both on the edge of being inside that Q1 qualifier, it still holds that they’re 0-6 against top-30 teams and 2-7 vs the top-50, regardless of where they played them, plus they have 2 losses to sub-50 teams. It’s not an inspiring resumé, so while people may be confused how a team with this record and Net ranking is behind some of the teams they are, it really comes down to proving you can win those top level games. Yes, Auburn is 15-12 but they have 5 Q1 wins, even if you take Ohio St’s best 2 wins it still isn’t close to stacking up. So, with all of that said, the Buckeyes clearly have some work to do, and with 1 Q1 game coming this week, opportunity is still knocking. They first will go to Iowa who is solid but very beatable and then they host Purdue. That is the one we’ve been circling for a while now as it’s a chance to pick up a top-10 win at home. The Boilers have been up and down, losing to UCLA and IU on the road previously, so that one has to be played as if their lives depend on it, because they likely do. However you slice it, an 0-2 week to push them to 0-10 in Q1 might be the final nail in the at-large coffin, as that’s it for Q1 until the Big 10 tourney potentially. They are backed into a corner, time to throw some haymakers.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
UCF (46) – Proj. 8 seed
Alright now it feels like this train is back on the tracks after a brief hiatus where they lost 3 games in a row in rough fashion. This week they were able to handle business, beating TCU at home to notch a Q2 win and then go to Utah, and while it was close, they beat the Utes for a 2nd Q2 win on the week. They won the latter without star guard Riley Kugel, so we’ll give a pass on the margin of victory and just note he was a game time decision so it doesn’t look like he’ll be out long. Themus Fulks and Jordan Burks picked up the scoring load and really it was just what the doctor ordered this week as they got back on track and are looking to close strong and make this a no brainer. Overall they’re now 9-7 in Q1/2, with an impressive trio of wins over Kansas/Texas Tech/Texas A&M, so I really think they just need to avoid disaster to be in the field at this point. They will stay in Utah with a trip to BYU upcoming and then they host Baylor. Even if they lose to BYU as long as they come back home and handle Baylor the way they should then I wouldn’t expect any doubts next week when it comes to the Knights. We’re getting close to locking them up, just need to see one or two more taken care of.
Teetering:
TCU (47) – Proj. Last 4 In
TCU pretty much held serve this week as they went to UCF and lost a tough Q1 game and then came back home and grinded out a tough one vs the Mountaineers. They didn’t come by that victory easy, as they trailed by 5 with just under 7 mins to play, but they used a closing run of 16-5 to put WVU away and rack up another Q2 win. It’s about an even split right now in terms of who has TCU in vs out, so it’s obviously very close but I will make my case. Right now I think the committee is going to be sitting down and looking at some very weak resumés and based on everything I’ve seen from them over the years and in this year’s top-16 reveal, I think the teams with the elite Q1(A) wins are going to have the edge. Right now TCU has two of those, with one being a non-con neutral site win over Florida that has aged like fine wine, and then the home win over Iowa St as the kicker. Add to that two more Q1 wins over top-50 teams Wisconsin/Baylor away from home and I think it’s criminal to have them out at this point. I understand WAB has them in the high 40’s, but the committee is not stuck to that metric alone, and they clearly have shown high level wins are #1 tie breakers. The bad losses can and historically have been overlooked, especially when they’re in Nov/Dec and there are enough big wins to offset. That’s why I have TCU in right now and that’s why I think they get in as long as they finish strong. They have a desperate Arizona St team at home and then a reeling K-State team with an interim HC on the road. A 2-0 week would make me feel even more certain, but losing one of those would certainly hurt their case a bit. It won’t take away those 4 Q1 wins, but it adds more doubt where there’s little room.
West Virginia (63) – Proj. Next 4 Out
Nobody on the Watch had a worse week than W. Virginia, who not only lost @ TCU in a game they led by 5 with 7 to go, but that was on the heels of an inexcusable home loss to Utah. The offense has dried up here lately, and while it hasn’t been a strength all year, failing to score 60 points in back-to-back games is a new low. They do play the one of the slowest paces in the country, but at some point you have to be able to score to beat good teams, and they just can’t do it right now. They are now facing an uphill battle if they want to charge back onto the right side of things, as they’re just 6-10 in Q1/2 with a Q3 loss now as well. With 4 to play I think they have to finish out 3-1 minimum, with 4-0 probably needed to actually flip the script entirely entering the Big 12 tourney. They go to a down and almost out Oklahoma St team this week and then host BYU. The Cowboys have fallen off so hard that’s a Q2 game right now, so they really can’t afford to drop that unless they plan to beat BYU at home. Their final 2 games are also Q2, so if they can flip that Q2 record to above .500 and still hold those 4 Q1 wins I think that’s enough to make it really interesting. I don’t have much confidence they can do it, but you’ll find out if you keep reading my confidence level doesn’t exactly bat 1.000 when it comes to predicting who will surge/fade. It’s put up or shut up time for the Mountaineers, who for the 2nd year in a row find themselves deep in the bubble drama.
Outside Looking In:
Cincinnati (51) – Proj. In the Hunt
And alas, we have our first team to surge from off the radar to on the Watch, as this Cincy team has risen from the ashes to put themselves back into at-large contention. Where do we even begin? I guess it has to start with bags on the heads of students just a few weeks back, as calls for Wes Miller’s head on stake were growing so loud he was apologizing to folks in the hallways after losses. At that point, they were sitting 11-12 and 3-7 in the league, and what looked like a promising roster could have conceivably been starting to plan their future endeavors outside of Cincinnati. However, inside that locker room this group decided to keep fighting instead of folding, and they have now ripped off 4 wins in a row, with the most recent win in Allen Fieldhouse over Kansas being the biggest of them all. That was the statement victory, and one that got everyone’s attention as they went to Kansas and didn’t just win, they thumped the Jayhawks. Now, as great of a story as that is, we still have a resumé to discuss, as we don’t value February more than November when it comes to team evaluation, the whole season counts. The good news for Cincy on that front is it’s relatively clean, with just the one bad loss outside of Q1/2, and an overall decent 6-11 record in Q1/2. That’s of course not good enough to be in right now, but they’ve given themselves a legit chance now with 2 Q1(A) wins vs Iowa St and @ Kansas. I almost had them on the Watch last week but thought, certainly they won’t win @ Kansas. How foolish of me, and even now I’m looking ahead and doubting they can win their next one @ Tech. Anything is possible, but even with a loss there I think a 3-0 finish after that (vs Ok St, vs BYU, @ TCU) would actually be enough. Go 2-2 in this stretch and we’re probably still short, but 3-1 I think they’d have a legit argument with 4 Q1 wins. What a story, and what a feeling after so long of not seeing teams get hot and pick up monster wins
Oklahoma St (83) – Proj. In the Hunt
Well we go from Cincy being red hot to the exact opposite here with the Cowboys as they now have dropped 5 in a row since that big win over BYU. At that point they were 16-6 and looking like they could be a solid tourney team, but the wheels have just fallen off. They lost by double digits this week both at home vs Kansas and then @ Colorado to drop to just 7-11, with only that lone Q1 win vs BYU. It’s desperation time at this point, as they have to find a way to at least go 3-1 down the stretch to have a chance, and the schedule is not kind at all. They first have a must-win game vs W. Virginia, who is also playing for their tourney lives so that will be a massive bubble matchup on Tuesday night. Then they go to the aforementioned Cincinnati Bearcats, who again are fighting for their tourney lives. If they don’t go 2-0 this week then their path at a 3-1 finish will have to include a home win vs Houston, and a win @ UCF next week. Not going to be easy, and certainly not a bet I’d be willing to make. However, the path is still there so they remain, however distant the dream may feel. For the Pokes, it’s do or die, with the NIT nipping at their heels. We’ll see if they can hang on.
Arizona St (68) – Proj. In the Hunt
Another first timer on the Watch the Sun Devils have been lurking in the shadows for some time now, but they just hadn’t picked up that big time win that told me they had the stones to go on a run. That was until this past week when they took down Texas Tech. It happened to be the game JT Toppin got hurt, but he played most of that game and Arizona St was in control when he went down, so I think they get full credit for what qualifies as a Q1(A) win right now. That brought them up to 3-9 in Q1, with non-con wins over Texas and Santa Clara being the others they can bring to the table. Those aren’t exactly super strong, but they qualify and with a 4-3 Q2 record they certainly belong in the conversation right now. I do have to mention they followed up the win vs Texas Tech with a road loss to Baylor, so it’s not like they’re white hot like Cincy, but that elite win at least closed the gap enough for them to have a chance. The way I see it, they need to finish 3-1 to be well positioned (not guaranteed in), which would include 2 more Q1 wins as they finish with 3 such games, with a home game vs Utah squeezed in there. It starts on Tuesday night as they go to TCU, which at this point feels like a must-win because in order to finish 3-1 they’d have to win @ Iowa St in the season finale if they lose to TCU. So, it’s very much a long shot, but with how things transpired this past week I’m not counting teams out who have shown a pulse as of late. The Sun Devils qualify, and TCU has been known to lay an egg every now and then, we’ll see if they can steal one.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Villanova (30) – Proj. 7 seed
Nova narrowly escaped Xavier this week, going to OT in Cincy but ultimately pulling off a W. Then came the disappointing result, as they hosted UConn and were unable to hang with the Huskies, trailing for most of the game and losing by 10. That drops them to just 2-5 in Q1, and while the rest of the resumé is relatively clean outside of that (1 Q3 loss), they are sitting on just 1 top-50 win. The metrics like them and that is causing some to elevate them on the seed line, but I think they’re much closer to an 8 than they are a 6. Then you look at the remaining schedule and the only Q1 meat that’s left is a trip to St. John’s. If they enter the Big East tourney just 2-6 in Q1 they better hope they’ve cleaned up the rest of their games down the stretch, as they certainly can’t afford a bad loss. If they walk into Selection Sunday with Seton Hall being their 2nd best win, I could see them being much lower than people are expecting, as while the metrics do matter, the committee is going to be looking at teams like Texas A&M, Texas, UCF, Georgia and many others behind Nova who can sport a handful of wins better than Nova’s 2nd best win. We saw that matter with UConn being placed above Houston thanks to their top end wins, so while I don’t expect Nova to miss out, I think this could be a lot closer than people think. That could of course change if they go beat St. John’s on Saturday. They also better not look ahead to that though, as Butler is frisky. Have to stay focused and then be ready to strike.
Teetering:
Outside Looking In:
Seton Hall (53) – Proj. In the Hunt
In what may end up being the final blow to Seton Hall’s at large hopes, the Pirates fell to DePaul this week to fade almost entirely out of the bubble picture. They bounced back and beat Georgetown at home, but that didn’t give them much resumé wise. They probably would need to go 3-0 to finish the season if they want to be anywhere near the right side of the bubble, but even a 2-1 finish could leave them at least a part of the conversation. The reason that is true is they play UConn on the road and also host St. John’s. Win one of those and go to Xavier and win and then they improve their 6-7 Q1/2 record to 8-8, with wins over NC State and one of the powers atop the Big East. The 2 Q3 losses are going to drag them down though, so that’s why I still am not sure that would be enough. The Big East tourney is still out there, but regardless of how you look at it the situation is grim for Shaheen Holloway and co. as they just haven’t been good enough since starting the season 14-2. They only have the road trip to Storrs until we meet again, so barring a shocking upset we are likely going to be singing the same tune next week.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Kentucky (29) – Proj. 7 seed
Well I said I was going to be cautious with this Kentucky group for one more week before locking, and boy am I glad I did that as UK had a horrific week. They first allowed Georgia to walk into Rupp Arena and win, giving them 2 embarrassing home losses on the year, and then they went to Auburn and lost on a last second tip in. A devastating 0-2 week that now has them down to the 7 seed line after flirting with as high as a 5 seed during the 8-2 run they went on. Now they’re sitting on 3 losses in a row and overall just an 8-10 record in Q1/2. They are buoyed by their 3 Q1(A) wins away from home (@ Arkansas/Tennessee and neutral St. John’s) but they certainly can’t afford to just lose every game down the stretch and feel totally safe. They have a sleepy trip to S. Carolina that shouldn’t be so sleepy since they’ve lost 3 in a row. They need to lock in and get a key win that will count as a Q2 victory. That one is important because it’s all Q1 after that, with home matchups with Vandy/Florida and a trip to A&M in there. Not an easy close, so that one on Tuesday night feels very important for them to stop this skid and keep from falling even further below .500 in Q1/2. Of course, a bounce back 2-0 week to include a win vs Vandy would reverse all the bad feelings, so it’s not totally panic time, just time to lock in.
Georgia (34) – Proj. 9 seed
Few teams on the Watch had as good a week as the Dawgs did this past week, as they went into Lexington and beat Kentucky in Rupp Arena. Not too many better places to win, and they didn’t stop there, as they kept their focus and returned home to beat Texas to pick up another quality win. Jeremiah Wilkinson’s return after missing a couple of games was huge for them, as he had 19 in each win, but Blue Cain continues to be the engine for them. All of that comes on the heels of me declaring them in a free fall last week, as they had lost 5 of 6 and looked like they were on the fast track to the NIT. They somehow found something to grab on to, and not only are they no longer careening toward their crushing death, they now have some legitimate separation between themselves and the real bubble. They finish with a pretty workable schedule, beyond this week’s trip to Vandy which will be tough. They then host S. Carolina (must-win), Bama and then finish @ Mississippi St. Go 2-2 the rest of the way and they should have nothing to worry about. Anything short of that we may be hanging on to them for a while, but I still find it tough to believe with the wins they have that they’ll miss out. Especially in this year’s bubble environment. Still though, they can make it very easy if they just handle business where they should the rest of the way.
Texas A&M (42) – Proj. 9 seed
After losing 4 in a row this week was a huge one for the Aggies as they desperately needed to stop the bleeding, and did so with 2 big SEC wins. They first beat Ole Miss at home, one they had to have, and then went on the road and beat a frisky Oklahoma team to notch a 4th Q1 win. That was the one that breathed a little confidence back into this group I’m sure, as it certainly did me, because for a couple of weeks there it looked like their hot start in the league may have been a mirage. They certainly shouldn’t have been considered the best team in the league, but they’re still a very respectable 9-5 in SEC play, and with an 8-8 Q1/2 record and no truly bad losses they are in a good spot. The biggest thing they have going for them, and why I really doubt they miss the tourney entirely, are those 3 road Q1(A) victories. Those are the golden ticket right now for them, as the committee clearly values to top end wins, and in a year where teams are struggling to put together multiple Q1 wins in general, having 3 on the road is massive. They still sit around just the 10 line mostly due to the 3 Q2 losses and overall the lack of a top-30 win, but again, those elite wins carry some hefty weight. They have a very tough trip to Fayetteville up next, but after that are 3 winnable games that they need to get at least 2 of I think to remain cozy. The first of those is in-state rival Texas on Saturday, so don’t panic if you see them lose to the Hogs, but a 2nd loss to Texas would really put the pressure on the final week. Important week, but not quite do or die as they have some breathing room.
Teetering:
Auburn (33) – Proj. 10 seed
Just as I said it could, this one certainly went in all sorts of directions last week, as Auburn went to Starkville and lost an inexcusable one to Missisippi St to kick off the week. It appeared that may be the dagger for the Tigers, as that was their 5th loss in a row and seemingly a straw that could break the camel’s back. The good news, if there can be such a thing after that, was that Keyshawn Hall was back in the lineup, and while it’s more embarrassing to lose with him than without him, at least whatever spat he and Coach Pearl had was seemingly behind them. Then things pivoted, as they hosted Kentucky with their backs against the wall and pulled out a miraculous win at the buzzer, as Elyjah Freeman swooped in a had a put back lay in with 1.1 secs remaining and they won by 1. That tip in may have just saved their season, exactly the drama we sign up for here at the Watch, and now the schedule lightens up big time as they enter the final 4 games with some momentum finally. This week they go to Oklahoma and host Ole Miss, with a home game vs LSU to follow and then the finale at Bama. If they go 3-1 to finish the season it’s a wrap, they’re in at 18-13. If they go 2-2 it would be interesting, but with 1 win in the SEC tourney I’d think 18-15 would be enough. There are inevitably people who are screaming at their computers reading that, but here’s the truth. The committee is not going to punish a team that has 8 losses in Q1(A), especially when we have teams fighting on the bubble who haven’t even played 1 of those, much less won 2 of them. You add in the 5 or 6 overall Q1 wins and the 13-4 record outside of Q1(A) and it really makes perfect sense. People will argue it’s too many losses, but the committee has fought hard to incentivize teams to play loaded schedules so we get less cupcake games and more monster matchups. If they didn’t schedule Michigan/Arizona/Purdue/Houston and instead 4 low major teams, they’d be 19-8 and nobody would bat an eye. Therein lies the problem for the committee. Do you want those games scheduled or not? If you do, you can’t punish a team like Auburn for losing them, since they have proven they can win Q1 games, 5 of them in fact. That’s a long winded explanation that I feel necessary for people to digest. SOS schedule matters because the NCAA wants big time non-con games, and in order to get that teams like Auburn have to get in. They still have to finish the job, but that’s why they are where they are.
Texas (39) – Proj. 10 seed
The Longhorns began the week by extending their winning streak to 5 games, as they handled LSU at home with ease. Then came the first leg of a 4 straight Q1 game stretch, and they fell @ Georgia, giving up 91 points in an 11 point loss. Defense continues to be a major problem, but that’s just kind of their identity at this point as they play high scoring games and just try to out score you. Overall they are still in good position as it stands, but their next 3 games are very tough as they host Florida and then go to A&M/Arkansas. If they end up losing 4 in a row they will be in very dangerous territory as they enter the finale vs Oklahoma. I’m not going to predict where it would leave them exactly, but they’d be just 7-13 overall in Q1/2. Similar to Auburn they are going to get some grace on the loss volume due to the SOS, but unlike Auburn they have a Q3 loss hanging out there. While it sounds drastic, it really feels realistic as that stretch is not easy, but if any of those are going to be wins it feels like this week the trip to A&M is the most attainable. Of course, they could shock Florida and knock them off, despite them looking elite for the last month+, and that’s probably more realistic than winning in Fayetteville, the Hogs don’t lose there. I do think they need a 2-2 finish to feel safe, as that would add a Q1 win, lifting them to 6 potentially if Oklahoma can hang in the top-75. They’ve been a tourney quality team over the last month, but they have to continue to make up for their slow start to the season.
Missouri (61) – Proj. 10 seed
Mizzou was desperate for another big win and this week offered up two trophies they could potentially nail to the wall. Vandy ended up falling victim to the Tigers’ desperation, as Mizzou was able to hold on for dear life as they nearly blew a 21 point 2nd half lead. It ended up being just a 1 point win, but a win is a win around here and that counts for their 4th Q1 win, with 3 of them being Q1(A) right now. They will need every one of those, as the 4-4 Q2 record is pretty ugly comparatively to the rest of the bubble, but not many teams can bring that level of top wins to the table either. As I’ve said repeatedly around here, the top level wins are going to break ties, and despite the bad computer metrics right now Mizzou is beating nearly everyone around the cut line in big time wins. They still have work to do though, as it’s obviously close and the schedule down the stretch is full of opportunities to make this an open and shut case. On the flip side, this thing could really go awry, so with Tennessee coming to Columbia next it’s not time to feel comfortable, that would be a huge win. They then go to Mississippi St, which is a great time to finally get that Q2 record above .500. If they don’t win that, and drop to 4-5 in Q2, their argument is going to get quite a bit weaker, as the committee does factor in win % in these quadrants, as well as losses outside of Q1. I think that’s the more important one, which sounds wild because beating Tennessee at home would be huge, but it’s just the optics of a losing record in Q2 can be very damaging. Either way, they would be really hurt by going 0-2 this week, so coming away with a at least one of these is paramount. Needless to say, they’re in, but maybe only for now if they don’t keep stacking wins.
Outside Looking In:
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Utah St (24) – Proj. 7 seed
Utah St was a win @ Nevada away from being the 2nd non-power conference team to get locked up, but they couldn’t quite get it done and now sit just 3-3 in Q1. The strength of their resumé to this point had been win % and that strong 7-0 Q2 record, but with the former taking a hit and the meat that is still left on the bone with the final 4 games I’m going to remain cautious. They still have 1 Q1 game (@ SDSU) and then 3 Q2 games to go, so while the 10-3 record there looks very strong it could look quite a bit different in a couple of weeks. That rematch with the Aztecs is up next, and they are desperate for a big win, especially after dropping 2 tough ones this past week to fall further out of the picture. What I’m worried about ultimately is they have just 3 wins against top-50 teams, and none against top-40. So while the record overall is shiny, at the top end it’s not super strong. They happen to be one of those teams I’ve referenced who haven’t even played a Q1(A) game, much less won one, so when you’re stacking them up against teams who have multiple wins there will the committee punish them? It’s a tough juggling act for them, but I think the strong computer metrics will play a part as they are considered a back end top-25 team. I find them to be very safe right now, but again the strength of that 7-0 Q2 record could take major hits down the stretch if they start losing to teams like Grand Canyon (who just beat the Aztecs), New Mexico and UNLV. I don’t see a collapse happening, they’ve been so good, but if it does this would get really interesting.
Teetering:
New Mexico (43) – Proj. First 4 Out
The Lobos got through this week with 2 wins, albeit a bit dicey there on Saturday night as they had to come back from a 22 point deficit to pull out what ended up just a 2 point win @ Fresno. Either way, it’s a W in the win column and it kept them from dropping another ugly one as they enter the homestretch with a real chance to make a run at this thing. Like we said last week, they finish with 3 of 4 in Q1/2, so chances to make some hay as we enter conference tourney week. They first head to a desperate Nevada squad on Tuesday and then they host an equally desperate San Diego St team. Needless to say it’s a massive bubble week for the Mountain West as what has gone from a potential 3-4 bid league is now slipping into dangerous territory, where really only Utah St looks solidly in. This could quickly turn into a bid stealing conference if they all cannibalize each other and then Utah St loses the MWC tourney. It’s going to be an interesting follow, but for the Lobos, they just need to focus on a 3-1 finish to the season, as that would give them a win in Q1 and Q2, with a likely loss @ Utah St. No shame in that finish. Some may be thinking that’s asking a bit much, they are 9-5 overall in Q1/2, shouldn’t that be plenty? Well, we have to look beneath the surface on these quadrant records, and 5 of those wins are in the lower tier of Q2, with only 2 of them (@ VCU, vs Santa Clara) being against top-50 opponents. That’s the major weakness, as they’re going up against teams like TCU, Mizzou, Indiana and more who all can bring multiple wins better than New Mexico’s best to the table. They need to beat them on volume and win %, so a strong finish is critical.
Outside Looking In:
San Diego St (44) – Proj. In the Hunt
I am pretty confident when I say the worst week on the Watch award goes to the San Diego St Aztecs, as they dropped 2 very winnable Q2 games and have slid fairly far out of this thing. Where they were hanging their hat was the fact they had a clean resumé, but after losses vs Grand Canyon and @ Colorado St, they are down to 5-2 in Q2 vs 5-0 when they started the week. They also still only sport the 1 Q1 win which was @ Nevada, not exactly an elite win. Their only saving grace right now is they’re about to play 3 straight Q1 games, with a home matchup with top-25 NET ranked Utah St up next. I have no hesitation in saying that is a must-win for the Aztecs if they want to contend for an at-large bid. I simply think they have no chance of stacking up with these power conference teams without at least 1 big time win over a top-30 team at least. Right now the Utah St is the only team that can qualify as that in this league, so they have to find a way to grind that one out. After that they go to New Mexico to finish out this week and then to Boise next week. I think at minimum they need to split those games, which would leave them 3-6 in Q1, giving them a chance. So that’s the path forward, and while it’s dark and windy, it remains a path nonetheless.
Nevada (66) – Proj. In the Hunt
I was very sure we were going to be dumping Nevada off of the Watch altogether after I saw them lose to San Jose St on Tuesday night, but in truly classic bubble team fashion they bounced back with a win over Utah St on Saturday to confuse the hell out of me. A Q4 loss and your best win of the season all in the same week, what a rollercoaster ride. Don’t get me wrong though, they are still very far out of this thing, and will need to finish 4-0 to even have an inkling of a chance. They host New Mexico this week which would add another top-50 win to their short list of those (Utah St now the only one) and then they have 3 straight against middling MWC teams. That includes trips to UNLV and Wyoming though, which count for Q2 wins, so they could elevate their Q2 record to 8-2 by the time we reach conference tourney week. At that point, they would need a neutral site win over at least one of the other contenders to notch at least a 2nd Q1 win to feel like they have a chance. So, of teams on the watch they may have the most difficult path forward, but I do think it’s a legit one now that they have that win over Utah St. Going to take a string of wins, with zero margin for error, but this time of year all you need is a chance.
–WCC–
Locks:
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Saint Mary’s (25) – Proj. Last 4 In
St. Mary’s is quite the case right now as almost universally they are viewed as in the dance as it stands, but I’m having a real hard time justifying their presence outside of NET ranking. They held their ground this week by going on the road and picking up 2 low level Q2 wins @ Seattle and Wazzu. Right now they are begging VA Tech to go on a run so they can land solidly in the top-50 and give them a Q1 win, but having just 1 win against the top-75 is simply not going to cut. It doesn’t come close to matching their top-30 ranking in the NET, but for those that are big fans of WAB they are ranked highly enough by that metric to be in the field. I suppose whatever algorithm goes into that weighs low level Q2 games highly enough, and maybe it’s just the lack of bad losses lifting them up. I can’t really explain it based on what I’ve seen the committee do historically, but right now the consensus is that a team with 0 top-50 wins is in the field, as high as a 9 seed. I have them going to Dayton, somewhat reluctantly, but admittedly the strength of the bubble around them is lackluster so maybe they could squeak in. Ultimately, I’m going to stand by what I’ve been saying for weeks. If they want to feel safe on Selection Sunday they need to sweep this final week of the regular season for them. Their season is on the line, and they get two chances at home to take down Santa Clara and then Gonzaga. You win those 2 and you now have 3 solid wins, with one of them against a top-10 NET team. Now you’re worthy. If they fall to Gonzaga specifically, I just don’t know how they’re going to get in. Maybe wins over Santa Clara/VA Tech will be enough, but their 3rd best win is over Wichita St (86th NET). That doesn’t come anywhere close to other power conference teams. They have the strong metrics, but I’m not sure if that’s going to be enough. So, I’m sticking with what I’ve always been saying, their backs are against the wall and they need 2 wins this week.
Santa Clara (40) – Proj. Last 4 In
Santa Clara did what they had to do this week, bouncing back nicely and dominating San Francisco on the road to pick up a 7th Q2 win. They now sit 1-4 in Q1 and 7-1 in Q2, which is pretty strong. The issue is the Q2 wins are on the weaker side, with the best really being the road win @ Xavier. The race for the last couple of spots is likely going to come down to mid-majors with clean resumés that lack top end wins vs power conference teams with a host of losses outside of Q1 but some big time Q1 wins they can hang their hat on. Generally I would lean toward the committee rewarding the big wins, especially Q1(A), but I do have Santa Clara as the 2nd to last team in as they do have that win over the Gaels at least. Their issue is going to be the other bubble teams having chances to pick up more big time wins, and while many have been squandering those chances, they still have more coming, with Ohio St/VA Tech/Cal and others all lurking. They’ve had time to get over the disappointment of losing to Gonzaga, as they clearly showed Saturday night, so they have to bring that energy of our tourney lives are on the line Wednesday night, because they very likely could be. If they drop to just 1-5 in Q1, it’s going to put all the pressure on the WCC tourney, as I’d think they’d need a Finals appearance there (meaning a win over St. Mary’s/Gonzaga in the Semis). It’s a tough road ahead, but one you’d sign up for when you haven’t been dancing in 30 years. Queue the “so you’re saying there’s a chance” meme.
–A-10–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
St. Louis (22) – Proj. 8 seed
We almost had a red alert with St. Louis on Friday night, as they entered the massive matchup with VCU coming off of a bad loss @ Richmond earlier in the week. They then got down to VCU early, trailing by as much as 14 in the early stages and still by 9 at halftime. Someone lit a fire under them though, as they came out of the half and went scorched earth, using a massive 2nd half run to overwhelm VCU and ultimately pull out a 13 point win, that saw their lead grow as big as 19 at one point. They scored 55 points in the 2nd half, showing whey the metrics have loved them to this point, as when they step on the gas they can turn into a very dangerous piece of machinery. The big picture is that jumped them to 4-2 in Q2 and 6-2 overall in Q1/2, which if it holds will be plenty to get them in I would think. Taking on that 2nd bad loss does hurt a bit, but they still are sitting on 3 top-50 wins after the sweep of VCU. It’s not an overwhelming resumé as I keep saying week after week, but if they can keep winning they will at least come to the committee with a strong win % and the metrics that show them as a top-25 team. They have 4 more to go, with 2 of them being road Q2 chances. A 4-0 finish and this things a wrap I would say, as even a loss in the early stages of the A-10 tourney would be ok being something like 8-3 in Q1/2. A loss to Dayton or George Mason might make it a bit more interesting, depending on how they go out of the A-10 tourney, so we’ll likely hold on to them to at least see the 4-0 finish all the way to the finish line. It gets started quickly as they go to Dayton on Tuesday night, and then they host Duquesne. Can’t rest on your laurels, you’ve made it this far can’t blow it now.
Teetering:
VCU (45) – Proj. First 4 Out
VCU fought valiantly @ St. Louis on Friday night, leading by 9 at the break, but the Billikens were just too much in the 2nd half, as the Rams essentially folded under the pressure of what felt like an avalanche. They really just started turning it over and missing every open shot, even in the paint, as they ended up shooting only 34% on 2 point shots for the game. The 3 ball dried up, and they couldn’t take care of it either, all on top of St. Louis getting hot and dropping 55 2nd half points. It was all too much to overcome, and now they’re just 1-5 in Q1, with the neutral site win over VA Tech barely holding on. They’re right there with St. Mary’s in terms of having very little to show off in the great win category, but they’re 21-3 outside of Q1(A) which is very impressive. I have them just on the outside looking in, and with the remaining schedule I find it hard to imagine they can pass the teams in front of them. They deserve to be on the Watch and apart of the conversation, but if they go into Selection Sunday with their best wins being VA Tech (50th, for now) and USF (52nd) I don’t believe they will be in. With only St. Louis out there as a better win than that, and the A-10 finals being the next shot at them, you can see the conundrum. They basically need every other bubble team to collapse and for VA Tech and USF to go on big time runs to charge into the 40’s overall. That’s their path, win out and hope for mass chaos to everyone not named VA Tech/USF. Not too much to ask for is it?
Outside Looking in:
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Miami (OH) (48)
The biggest story of college basketball right now are your Miami RedHawks, who continue to roll through their schedule as they are now 27-0. It’s a great mid-major story, and awesome to see considering how top heavy the sport is feeling in the portal/NIL era. Now, I hate to take the air out of the balloon, but I’m sure you’re aware at this point the schedule is Charmin soft, which unfortunately is very bad news when it comes to evaluating them for an at-large spot. I have already heard the discussions about how there is no way they can be left out if they only lose once or if they go undefeated until the MAC final. But are we actually sure about that? Right now I have very little hope that the committee would give an at-large spot to a team without a top-50 win. They would have benefitted greatly from a trip to Akron, but unfortunately their only matchup with them was at home and is just a Q2 win. It would be an unprecedented resumé I will admit, but it is likely they would be stacked up next to high major teams who would have several top-50 wins. The only way I see it happening is if it’s a close loss to Akron, and even then they need the other bubble resumé’s to be weak. I just don’t see how they would justify to SEC/Big Ten teams who have played a gauntlet of a schedule that a team who played 0 Q1 games is going to get in over them, especially with the metrics evaluating them in the mid-80’s per the prediction sites like Kenpom. Your only argument is they just didn’t have the chance, but if they lose at any point in Q2, what makes me think they could compete in Q1? That is not what I desire the answer to be, as I think it’d be more fun to have them in, but I just can’t see the committee doing it. I hope we don’t have to find out if I’m right.
5-STAR Bracketology 