March is here! Our favorite month around here has returned, and we still have so much to play for with just 1 regular season left for most, but some tickets will start to be punched soon as a few conference tournaments kick off this week. I plan for this to be a living, breathing source you can come to daily for an update to what the bubble picture is looking like, and what the path forward is for each team. From now until Selection Sunday allow this to be your bastion for bubble and feel free to comment at the bottom any questions or thoughts you may have.
Since we last met there have been some big time games happening for teams like Ohio St/Indiana as well as a host of Big 12 and SEC schools like TCU/Cincy/Arizona St and Auburn/Texas A&M/Mizzou and plenty more. St. Mary’s has made a surge with the sweep of Santa Clara and Gonzaga last week as well. There’s so much left to be decided, and plenty of drama potentially around the corner with bid stealers in conference tourney week. We’ll be discussing things like WAB, my feel on the committee and what they have done in the past and where I think the matrix could be suffering from some group think as in year’s past (shoutout Louisville and Memphis last year). It’s all sprinkled throughout the coverage of what are now 30 teams fighting for 18 spots. Let’s get it.
For those new here stick with me, as I explain more about what I’m doing, vets can skip ahead with the buttons below.
So, I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – We’re looking at the 8-9 seeds here now who have a pretty solid spot in the field but if they lose out could be in trouble.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They are anywhere from the Last 4 Byes all the way down to the Next 4 Out.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
I have provided below the Quadrant system to help contextualize what I’m referring to when discussing wins. Each conference has a table with the team’s resumé to reference at the beginning, for your own comparison, including the locks. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 57 teams on the Watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 3/2. Check out my current bracket projection here.
| Quadrant 1 (Q1) | Quadrant 2 (Q2) | Quadrant 3 (Q3) | Quadrant 4 (Q4) |
| Home (1-30) | Home (31-75) | Home (76-160) | Home (161-364) |
| Neutral (1-50) | Neutral (51-100) | Neutral (101-200) | Neutral (201-364) |
| Away (1-75) | Away (76-135) | Away (136-240) | Away (241-364) |
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 23
Locks: 27
Bids Left: 18
Bubble: 30
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Miami (FL) (30) – Proj. 7 seed
I know it may appear on the surface like Miami is a sure fire tournament team right now, and obviously having them as a 7 seed I think they’re pretty safe, but I’m telling you the separation from this exact spot and the true cut line is pretty slim. The Hurricanes did what they needed to this past week to keep the wolves at bay, but wins over Florida St and BC only amount to Q2/3 wins right now. The Canes are sitting on just 2 top-50 wins, UNC/NC St, not exactly an overwhelming list. After that it’s just 2 more inside the top-75 with VA Tech and Wake Forest being all they have left to offer. That is why I haven’t locked them up, because if they finish 0-3 this could be a lot closer than it may appear. They go to SMU who is hungry for a big win and then they host Louisville. Neither of those games are going to be easy and if they fall to just 3-6 in Q1 going into the ACC tourney then an early exit there would see them fall quickly down the seed list. Obviously, if they can win one of the final two games we will just lock them up and not worry about it, as a 4th Q1 win would be plenty in this year’s environment.
NC State (29) – Proj. 9 seed
Just when I thought the Wolfpack had turned a corner, they turn in a week like that, going 0-2 with a blowout loss @ Virginia and then another L @ Notre Dame. Defensively they just fell apart, giving up 90 and 96 on just 70 possessions in the two losses. That makes them just 1-4 in their last 5 games after they had gone on a 6 game winning streak. Trying to figure this team out is a nightmare, but at this point you can’t have any confidence in them game to game. It gets worse. This week they welcome Duke, who has been absolutely curb stomping everyone in the ACC of late, so I can’t see things turning around in the near future. Right now I’ve dropped them to a 9 seed but they’re somewhere in that 8-9 range for sure. They have the 4 Q1 wins which keeps them solidly above the cutline, especially since 2 of them are road Q1(A) wins. However, if they lose out there’s no telling how much further they could fall, so we have to proceed with caution on this one, and likely will for a bit as I don’t see them knocking off the Dukies.
Teetering:
SMU (36) – Proj. 10 seed (Last 4 Byes)
SMU had a horrible week, there’s no way to sugar coat it, as they went out to California and lost to both Stanford and Cal. Those are technically Q1 losses, but they’re to sub-60 NET ranked teams, so it was a major hit to their resumé. They do still have the 4 Q1 wins, but the losses are mounting and that 3-2 Q2 record in uninspiring, especially since they’re 0-5 in Q1(A). It’s still enough to be well ahead of teams like New Mexico, Ohio St and Indiana who are all fighting for Dayton spots, but if they lose out and those teams pick up some wins it’ll get a lot more interesting. Up next they host Miami, a perfect chance to bounce back and also improve that Q2 record to 4-2. They have been a very different team at home, going 15-2 in Dallas, compared to just 3-7 on the road. A big win vs the Hurricanes on Wednesday would make me feel a lot more comfortable about the Mustangs, but if they do trip up then they will be facing a must-win game on Saturday as they go to Florida St. Given what I just said about their play on the road, I don’t think they want to see it come down to that one prior to the ACC tourney.
Virginia Tech (54) – Proj. Last 4 In
We’re down to the last gasp for the Hokies, as they failed to pick up one of the critical Q1 games they had left in their loss @ UNC, with just 1 to go before the ACC tourney. They did do well to beat Wake Forest at home, but right now they’re sitting on just 2 Q1 wins and have been hunting that 3rd one for quite some time. Their saving grace is they do have 2 Q1(A) wins with the win vs Virginia and then @ Clemson, so the top level wins are there, and frankly I think people are way too low on the Hokies resumé as it stands. I agree the 2-9 record is bad, and the metrics aren’t great, but we’re talking about a team that is 8-10 in Q1/2 so I don’t think they’re in as bad a spot as people think. In fact, after the loss by IU yesterday and the collapse of Auburn, I have the Hokies as the last team in the field right now. They of course have to beat BC up next, and so long as they do that I really think if they sweep UVA they would comfortably be on the right side entering the ACC tourney. The more likely scenario is they fall to just 2-10 in Q1, which means they’d need to do some work in the ACC tourney to find their way in. Not impossible, but of the bubble teams they have the least to work with prior to next week, short of beating a top-15 team on the road.
Cal (64) – Proj. First 4 Out
Well Cal continues to make this the most difficult resumé to judge on the board, as they were able to beat SMU this week to pick up a huge Q2 win but then then lost to Pitt at home. An awful loss to add to the resumé at this point in the season, and it all but undid the big victory earlier in the week. They never led in the game and only scored 56 points, a complete flop when it had finally looked like they could turn the corner and get in the dance. The good news is the rest of the bubble is also blowing chances, so they aren’t completely out of it, they just need to have a big week this week and the a win or two in the ACC tourney. They go to GA Tech which is a game they absolutely have to have, and then go to Wake Forest to round out the season. If they lose to GA Tech I might just count them out, because you can’t take on 2 Q3 losses in the homestretch and think you’re going to pass teams on the bubble. That’s what we’re watching right now, as I’m not going to look any further ahead until they handle business on Wednesday night.
Outside Looking In:
Florida St (77) – Proj. In the Hunt
Well the air has been let out of the balloon a bit as the Noles were unable to beat Miami this week to really give this thing some life heading into the last week. I had praised their defensive turnaround during this run, but it reverted a little on Tuesday as they gave up 83 to Miami, including 29 in the final 10 minutes. Despite that there is still a path, as they did go to GA Tech and win to stay above .500 and leave themselves an outsized shot at getting in. They absolutely have to go 2-0 this week to get themselves to 17-14, with 2 more Q2 wins @ Pitt and then vs SMU. I would think they’d still need multiple wins in the ACC tourney to make the dream a reality, but considering they started the season 8-12 they have to be viewing even being in the conversation as a massive win. We’re going to leave the detailed ACC tourney projections for another date, but if we’re heading into that with them at 3-10 in Q1 and 5-3 in Q2 they’d have a legit shot. That speaks to how weak the bubble is right now, but that is the reality that we’re in as we enter March. It’s as long a shot as we have on the Watch right now but yes, I’m saying there’s a chance.
–Big Ten–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Iowa (28) – Proj. 8 seed
I was ready to lock the Hawkeyes up after watching them beat Ohio St with relative ease last Tuesday, but they followed that up with a complete egg @ Penn St to drop their 2nd game to sub-100 ranked teams. That was only Penn St’s 3rd win in the conference, so an inexcusable loss at this stage and one that now makes this very interesting. They likely are going to be safe no matter what, but they finish with Michigan in Iowa City and then a trip to Nebraska, so 2 more losses is very likely this week, leaving them 20-11 heading into the Big 10 tourney. That would also mean 6 losses in their final 8 games, so a first game exit in the conference tourney would leave them in a very vulnerable position on Selection Sunday. The metrics love them, still having them as a top-25 team, but WAB is showing them just 36th, and if you add 3 more losses to that equation they could be right in that mix in the 40’s that will see the teams in Dayton likely land. Last year for reference the 4 teams in Dayton were 43, 44, 46 and 49 in WAB in the first year that metric was used. I expect it to be similar this year, so if Iowa keeps sliding they are by no means safe. Of course, if they somehow knock of Michigan Thursday night then we can just lock em up and forget about it.
Teetering:
UCLA (39) – Proj. 10 seed
The Bruins continue to make this interesting, as while they were able to beat USC at home by 19 points, they laid yet another egg away from home in a loss @ Minnesota. They are now 1-6 away from home in Q1 and just 3-6 overall in road games, with their 16-1 home record carrying them right now. 2 of those home wins over Illinois and Purdue are really what are keeping them on the plus side of things, as those 2 top-10 wins are wins these other bubble teams can’t contend with, so when it comes down to it the committee is almost certainly going to tip the scale in favor of the Bruins thanks to those wins. It’s very close though, as those are the only wins inside the top-50 that they have, so it’s an extremely top-heavy resumé. Their next game could make this all but a sure thing though as they host Nebraska. If they can knock off the Cornhuskers and pick up another top-15 win I can’t see them missing the dance, regardless of how they finish (@ USC, BTT). Lose and that showdown in LA becomes that much bigger, but we’ll get to that if Tuesday night goes sideways.
Ohio St (34) – Proj. Last 4 In
The Buckeyes were finally able to find that signature win on Saturday as they knocked off Purdue at home to notch a Q1(A) win that has put them firmly on the right side of things on this Monday morning. They have benefited from Northwestern playing well and sliding into the top-75 as well, so they are sitting on 2 total Q1 wins plus 6 more in Q2. The 2-10 record is obviously ugly but in a year where it’s like pulling teeth to get a bubble team to pick up a good win, Buckeye fans can actually feel relatively confident right now. With that being said there is still time to blow it, so while that massive win could bring a sigh of relief to the fan base, Coach Diebler can’t afford to let this group take a breather, as on Wednesday they head to a frisky Penn St team that just knocked off Iowa. I would like to say they need to win both of their final 2 regular season games to feel safe, but again the bubble teams this year just drop chances left and right, so losing a Q2 game might not actually knock them back too far. They are going to be able to bring a top-10 win to the table, something many of their competition won’t be able to match, and they have top-40 metrics to match. I think regardless of how you slice it you have to play every game like it’s must-win when you’re projected to be going to Dayton, especially when it’s a sub-100 ranked team with only 3 conference wins.
Indiana (41) – Proj. First 4 Out
The dream of going dancing in year 1 under Darian DeVries is starting to slip now as this was a disastrous week for the Hoosiers, dropping an inexcusable one at home to Northwestern and then failing to bounce back vs Michigan St. Obviously the latter was going to be tough, so not too much harm there, but when you’re fighting for your tournament lives you can’t afford losing a Q2 game at home to a team barely in the top-75. Those two losses have now made it 4 in a row for them, and while 3 of those were to top-10 teams, they just didn’t have that kind of margin for error given the weakness of the resumé. They now sit just 5-12 in Q1/2, about the worst record in those 2 categories on the Watch, but they are this high on the bubble because 2 of those are Q1(A) and the 3rd is borderline Q1 with Wisconsin just missing the cut. Those are a strong top-3 wins, but they have to get more, and at this point will have to close things out 2-0 to not need a major run in the Big Ten tournament. It’s do or die time at this point, and I would say they have an easy one upcoming with Minnesota coming to Bloomington, but after the Northwestern debacle nothing can be taken for granted. They need that one and more, with a trip to Columbus finishing off the season as their last gasp before the conference tourney. We’ll see if they can turn this ship around.
USC (63) – Proj. First 4 Out
USC is an absolute dumpster fire right now, with the latest blow somehow eclipsing the 0-2 week we just saw from them, as active leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara was seemingly just kicked off the team. They honestly shouldn’t even be near the tournament the way things are right now, but the whole season is supposed to matter so the resumé without context does still stack up to be in the conversation. They lost 2 Q1 games, so huge missed opportunities but not killers. Those losses brought their losing streak up to 5 in a row, as they’ve fallen from as high as the 8/9 seed line to universally considered out of the field right now. Maybe the removal of a bad apple in Baker-Mazara will be a good thing, but that feels like a fairly unrealistic way for this to go considering it’s happening this late in the season. Whatever the case, they absolutely have to find a way to go to Seattle and pick up a Q1 win over Washington. That’s a team that is decent but plenty beatable, so if the Trojans can find a way to recapture what they had going on in January they certainly could win that. That is how they get themselves back into realistic position, with a win to cap off the season vs UCLA potentially being enough to flip this thing back. I highly doubt it will happen, but it’s a path forward nonetheless, and with the Big Ten tournament still out there a team that is 9-10 in Q1/2 and 50th in WAB absolutely has a chance still.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
TCU (45) – Proj. 10 Seed
TCU is absolutely rolling right now, winners of 6 of their last 7, including dubs over Arizona St and K-State this week. They had been a team in the past that had played to the level of their competition, so while the schedule hasn’t been as tough during this stretch, it has been good to see them beat teams their supposed to with consistency, as well as knocking off Iowa St. I think the idea that TCU is merely an 11 seed is a little silly right now given they have a neutral site win over Florida and another win over Wisconsin, all on top of two more top-50 Q1 wins. The 9-8 Q1/2 record is also far stronger than some of the teams others have ahead of TCU, so unless we believe the two Q3/4 losses in the first month of the season are going to sink them that far, then I think TCU should feel pretty good right now. What I really think people are getting caught up in are the predictive metrics, but we all have to remember Memphis last year, who was in the 50’s per those metrics and got a 5 seed. Above all else the question is who have you beaten and where, and right now TCU has the marquee wins to give them some breathing room. That being said, if they lose out the rest of the way they could be in trouble, so we have to monitor this one given they are going to Texas Tech next. They finish with a desperate Cincy at home, so it’s not an easy finish prior to the Big 12 tourney. I like the Frogs to be in but they can’t completely collapse.
West Virginia (58) – Proj. Next 4 Out
West Virginia has one of the most unique resumés on the Watch right now as they have a significantly better Q1 record (5-7) than Q2 (1-4). They added to that disparity this week, losing @ Oklahoma St for their 4th Q2 loss but then bouncing back to beat BYU at home for a 5th Q1 win. It’s an absurd task to try and figure out what the committee would do, but what we can now lean on is WAB, as Dan Gavitt has publicly said now they will lean on that metric to make decisions on inclusion in the tournament. Notably, he said it wouldn’t be used for seeding, but either way we can look at WVU’s 60th ranked WAB score and say they have plenty of work to do if they want to be included in the field without an auto-bid. Frankly, the win vs BYU saved their season, but they have 2 Q2 chances left to try and make that eye sore on the resumé look a little bit cleaner. By my estimation they need to finish 2-0 to have a chance, although they probably need at least 1 win in the Big 12 tourney to really make it convincing. They go to K-State Tuesday, one you just can’t afford to lose at this point, then finish with UCF at home. That’s the path forward, at least to the conference tourney, where they very well could need some more.
Outside Looking In:
Cincinnati (49) – Proj. In the Hunt
Cincy was unable to pull off the major upset in Lubbock but they bounced right back and destroyed fellow bubble team Oklahoma St immediately after. I didn’t really expect them to beat Tech, but they had to have the next one and they got it. They still have work to do of course, but to be able to dominate in that fashion helps improve their metrics and keeps the positive momentum rolling as they’re now 5-1 in their last 6. They have 2 major tests left of the schedule, with a wounded BYU coming to Cincinnati on Tuesday. Realistically they need both, so the most important one is the next one right now as they are trying to dig themselves completely out of a massive hole. They have the wins over Iowa St and Kansas that are giving them a chance, but 2-10 with 3 losses outside of Q1 isn’t going to get it done. If they enter the Big 12 tourney 4-10 in Q1 (wins vs BYU and @ TCU) then they’ll be right on the cut line, potentially in the field depending on what others do. 3-11 would likely have them on the outside, but still within striking distance. Again, that’s the weakness of the bubble, but one or two big wins can see you surge like 10 spots right now as the margins are just so thin. Opportunity knocks, we’ll see if they can answer the bell.
Oklahoma St (84) – Proj. In the Hunt
Oklahoma St right now is the most here by technicality team that we have on the Watch, as their WAB rank is clearly good enough to be in the conversation still, but they’ve lost 6 of their last 7 games. It’s hard to feel confident at all they can finish strong, especially after a blowout loss @ Cincy on Saturday. To be fair to them though since the last time we met they ended a 5 game losing streak by beating W. Virginia at home in OT, so they were able to hang around in the conversation thanks to that 7th Q2 win. Ultimately though I think this is a bit of a flaw on the part of WAB, not crediting teams enough for the top level wins and rewarding weak schedules that load up Q3/4 wins. Oklahoma St built up a nice score going 9-0 in those games, but they have just 3 top-50 wins and just 1 in Q1, compared to Cincy with 5 such wins, 2 in Q1, yet they are 10 spots higher in WAB. The margins are thin, but a bit of a peak into my thoughts on WAB, as I do think it could use some tweaking if the committee is going to rely on it and keep their same tendencies of rewarding teams who play tough schedules and punishing the cupcake schedules, especially in the non-con. All of that being said, the Cowboys have their backs up against a wall, they absolutely have to start landing some shots or else they will have to win the Big 12 tourney to get in. Up next, a trip to Orlando to see UCF, and then they host Houston. Record scratch…an uphill battle to say the least.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Villanova (33) – Proj. 8 seed
Villanova continues to kind of be who we think they are, beating every team they are supposed to and then losing to top competition whenever they face them. This past week they beat Butler at home and then got blown out by St. John’s, very predictable. Somehow, the computer metrics still like them, with the results based ones showing them as high as a deserved 6 seed. I think that’s well too high based on what the committee has done in the past, and even my 8 seed feels a little optimistic given their resumé right now. They sport just 1 win against a top-50 opponent, and while they technically do have 3 Q1 wins, having Seton Hall (56) and Providence (74) being your 2nd and 3rd best wins is not exactly the makings of a slam dunk resumé. Most prognosticators are following WAB fairly closely, with many having them no lower than a 7 seed, but if they don’t pick up another signature win, I’d even be surprised with them at an 8. There are just far too many teams in the 8-9 range that have a key win or 2 even over top-25 competition, something Nova has 0 of. Their best to date is a neutral site win over Wisconsin, which has aged well but still isn’t a golden ticket. They finish with a trip to DePaul and then vs Xavier, two teams hovering around 100th in the NET. If I’m a Nova fan I’m still nervous because a loss in either of those and then a quick exit in the Big East tourney could leave you with just 2 Q1 wins (if Providence slips just 2 spots) and only 1 top-50 win. I’m telling you that could land them as low as Dayton, with potential bid stealers coming. I know they are a 7 seed on the matrix but when you dig deep I think this one may be a case where some group think has set in and we’re collectively overlooking how weak this resumé really is.
Teetering:
Outside Looking In:
Seton Hall (56) – Proj. In the Hunt
Seton Hall was oh so close to doing the improbable on Saturday by knocking off UConn in Storrs, ultimately blowing what was an 8 point lead with 8 minutes left to lose by 4. That leaves them with just 1 more chance to add on to their 2-4 Q1 record prior to the Big East tourney. They are still lingering though as just another team that is benefiting from the introduction of WAB, as a team historically with just 1 top-70 win and 6 losses outside of Q1 at this stage would be well outside the picture. However, since this is now the magical metric we have focused on, their 55th ranking there is keeping them alive, and they have 2 big chances this week to add on to that and surge up into the real conversation. They go to Xavier on Tuesday to play a team that has been pesky, but it’s an important one as they need to bolster what is just an average 5-4 Q2 record, shoutout WAB. I mean for real, what are we doing with a team that has 1 top-70 win and 4 losses to teams ranked 80th or worse…what is this metric. Anyway, that’s a discussion for people with more power than me I guess, all I can say is Dan Gavitt proclaimed they would be leaning on that metric for inclusion decisions, and I would have to imagine with a clean sweep @ Xavier and then vs St. John’s the Pirates would burst into the top-50 in that metric, where all 4 Dayton teams were last year (43, 44, 46 and 49). It’s an ugly resumé but if they were to add a win over the Johnnies to the lone win over NC State then they should at least be in the conversation. I think they’ll need to do more in the Big East, but we’ll see if they can navigate this week before we get to that.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Georgia (31) – Proj. 9 seed
The Dawgs were unable to pull off an upset @ Vandy this week, but they held serve at home vs S. Carolina to kind of hold steady right where they are. I honestly don’t think they’re in any danger to completely miss out on the tourney, but we’re going to hold out just in case they do end up finishing 0-3 and decide to make it interesting. Right now they have 5 wins against the top-50, including that Q1(A) road win over Kentucky and a home win over Arkansas that’s good for their top-ranked win. Those two alone carry a lot of weight, but at 10-8 in Q1/2 it’s hard to imagine them getting passed over by enough teams to slip out. They do have a tough finish though, as they host Bama who is red hot and then they go to Mississippi St who is frisky. I just want to see one more win to really feel like I can lock them up, and it’s possible I have them under-seeded as a 9 right now. If they do drop to just 10-11 in Q1/2 though they will be right in those conversations to potentially be in Dayton, so I certainly don’t want to have them locked up with that being the scenario. One of the safer teams on the Watch, but not quite out of the woods just yet.
Missouri (53) – Proj. 9 seed
This Mizzou team continues to play fantastic basketball, as they’re now 6-2 over their last 8 games, picking up 3 Q1 wins along the way, with the most recent being vs Tennessee this past Tuesday. Mark Mitchell and Shawn Phillips continue to be the story in the front court, but the rising SO TO Barrett deserves a shoutout after dropping 28 on the Vols, as they every last one of them in their 4 point dub as he continues to take advantage of his steadily growing role. What matter more than all of that player specific stuff is that they have their 5th Q1 victory, a line of demarcation that seems like it’ll be hard to miss the tourney if you can reach it (shoutout WVU and their 1-4 Q2 record though). The Tigers also followed up that massive win with a Q2 win @ Mississippi St, so they now sit a combined 10-9 in Q1/2 to position themselves pretty safely in I would say. I will acknowledge I have them higher than the bracket matrix consensus, but again we’re talking about a team that has 4 top-30 wins and 6 top-50 wins in a year we are considering teams without a top-30 win and maybe 1 or 2 top-50 wins. They also have 0 losses outside of Q1/2, so at this point it would take a monumental collapse and a string of other bubble teams surging plus maybe a bid stealer or 2 for Mizzou to miss the dance. The thing holding me back is they still go to Oklahoma and then host Arkansas. There’s not a small chance they go 0-2 in those games, and while they would still leave them 5-8 in Q1 going into the SEC tourney, another loss could in theory make it interesting. Ultimately, I don’t think they miss out, I just would like to see 1 more W before locking up an 8/9 seed that others have even lower.
Teetering:
Texas (37) – Proj. 10 seed
Now we get to the Longhorns who have an increasingly absurd resumé as they are now up to 7 Q1 wins (7-8) but that’s paired with a combined Q2/3 record of just 3-3. Since we last met it just grew more absurd, as they did lose to Florida but then they went to Texas A&M and got a huge win, which is how we got to the 7th in Q1. That’s a number that I just can’t see ending up in the NIT, and while I only have them as a 10 seed, I could see them landing as high as an 8 at this point, as I can go back and forth in my mind about what the committee will favor or won’t favor and what is more impressive or not all the way up to Miami as my last 7 seed. It’s as tight as I can remember from that point all the way down here to Texas on the 10 line, and I’m hoping for some clarifying big wins or bad losses over the coming weeks to kind of sort this thing out a bit easier. Either way, while seeing the Longhorns on the 10 line might make you pause and think they’re in trouble, I think they could lose @ Arkansas and be just fine as long as they beat Oklahoma in Austin. Even with a first game SEC tourney loss, I think 7-10 in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2 will be plenty. The mission has to be just beat Oklahoma, the rest is gravy.
Texas A&M (43) – Proj. 11 seed
Well that’s now 6 losses in the last 8 games for Bucky Ball as A&M fell @ Arkansas by 5 and then at home to Texas by 6 this past week. The Aggies started 17-4 and 7-1 in the SEC prior to this stretch, so they have some good will build up on the resumé, but they are about to the end of their rope on that front. They of course still have the 3 road Q1(A) wins we’ve been discussing since the first edition of the Watch, but they’ve taken on so much water over the past 2 months it’s becoming a difficult sell. They are still overall 8-10 in Q1/2, so they should still be considered in by everyone at this point, it’s just barely at this point as they shouldn’t be any higher than a 10 seed, with Dayton a real possibility right now. They of course have chances in the SEC still to improve that, and it starts on Tuesday night as they host Kentucky. After that they go to LSU, so 2 more Q1 chances, making me feel like they need to at least split these to get to 5 Q1 wins entering the SEC tourney. I don’t know what the landscape will look like at that point, but that 4-4 Q2 record is the thing to keep an eye on if the bubble starts to shrink. Yes the 3 Q1(A) road wins carry a ton of weight, but if they’re just 4-8 in Q1 and 4-4 in Q2, they’ll absolutely need to do some work in the SEC tourney, as per WAB they sit just 43rd as is. It’s now nut cutting time in College Station.
Auburn (38) – Proj. First 4 Out
Last week I went to the defense of Auburn being included in the field, you can refer there if you care to hear it, but at this point it’s all moot as the Tigers went 0-2 since we last met and should now be on the outside looking in by my estimation. I don’t think 15-14 is going to do it, especially now that they’re taking on bad losses in Q3 like they had vs Ole Miss on Saturday. That one is inexcusable, and you can go to bat for the SOS number all you want but when you’re now just 4-3 in Q2/3 it starts to fall on def ears. Overall they’ve now lost 7 of 8, so not only do you have the much worse resumé to look at you also have to use the eye test and say hey I don’t think this team is playing well enough to deserve a spot, even if the technical numbers could squeak them in. I do think that matters a tiny bit to the committee, especially when making these close calls. They do have a chance to stem the tide though as they host LSU on Tuesdsay night, which at this point is a must-win as that would be the final nail in the coffin if they were to lose that one. They then have to go to Bama, one I just can’t see them winning but you have to at least acknowledge there’s a slight chance they go there a win. Short of that though I think at 16-15 they’re solidly out. I think they’d need 3 wins in the SEC tourney, which I believe would mean they’d need to reach the semi’s. Not impossible, but that’s the path, either beat LSU AND Bama or make the SEC tourney Semi’s for a chance.
Outside Looking In:
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Utah St (26) – Proj. 8 seed
Utah St lost a tough one @ San Diego St to keep the Aztecs alive this past week, but they did respond well by beating a desperate Grand Canyon on Saturday night. That win staves off any real sense of danger here, but It’s just so hard for me to lock up a team that doesn’t have a win over the top-40. If they were to lose out and finish with just the 3 wins over New Mexico (42), VCU (47) and SDSU (44) is that a slam dunk you think? It would be a 10-6 record in Q1/2, which when you put it that way sounds much more palatable, and I do think it would be enough, but it’s possible they’re a 10 or even 11 seed at that point. The resumé is just not very strong at the top, and while they have only 1 loss outside of Q1, in this scenario that number may balloon to as high as 4. It’s not a scenario I’m expecting to play out, as they should win @ UNLV and probably vs New Mexico to make all of this moot. I’m still going to exercise some caution before we totally throw away the key. They go to UNLV on Tuesday night, win that and we’ll just lock em up.
Teetering:
New Mexico (42) – Proj. Last 4 In
When it’s all said and done this past week will be one to look back on, as the Lobos had a great chance to pick up a 3rd Q1 win and fumbled one away @ Nevada as they led by as many as 9 in the 2nd half. They got blasted on the boards and missed 9 FT’s in a 7 point loss, and while they did bounce back to notch a top-50 win over San Diego St at home. That gave them their 7th Q2 victory and thanks to several blown chances by other bubble teams I have the Lobos just barely in the field right now. Their case essentially boils down to 3 top-50 wins @ VCU (47), vs Santa Clara (41) and that one vs San Diego St (44). They have nothing inside the top-40, and just 1 of those counts as Q1, with the other being @ GCU who is the last team to qualify coming in at 75th, so that could drop off very easily. It’s an extremely flimsy case, one that could very easily be passed over if they don’t add anything more in the last 2 weeks here. They are going to have a massive chance to do so when they go to Utah St on Saturday, but prior to that they need to handle business at home vs Colorado St. A 2-0 week and they would be sitting in a much better position, but if they can’t knock off Utah St then it’s going to be a very nervy Selection Sunday if they can’t go on a run in the MWC tourney.
San Diego St (44) – Proj. Next 4 Out
The Aztecs have now lost 3 of their last 4 games after Saturday’s loss to New Mexico, it just so happens that the lone win over that span was a win vs Utah St. That was their best win of the season, giving them a top-30 victory and a 2nd Q1 W. I have them a bit further down the seed list than New Mexico though because they only have the 2 top-50 wins, vs Utah St and vs New Mexico, so at the top they are lacking big wins but they also have 3 losses outside of Q1 compared the the Lobos’ 2. It’s a small margin but if we’re going to be splitting hairs, might as well do it right. The good news here is they have another Q1 chance, and while it isn’t going to add a top-50 win it could get them to 3 Q1 wins and give them a fighting chance going into the MWC tourney. They have to win the trip to Boise in my opinion, unless they can beat New Mexico in the MWC semis and then take a championship game loss. It may take that either way, but notching that 3rd Q1 win @ Boise and then handling UNLV at home would put them right on the edge with a chance for more after that.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–WCC–
Locks:
On the Right Track: N/A
Saint Mary’s (21) – Proj. 8 Seed
Well the Gaels had a week that they couldn’t have dreamed of going better, as they not only beat Santa Clara at home they also took down Gonzaga to grab a share of the WCC title one last time. Of course, they do plan to still run the show here, but they’ll never see the Zags in the conference again, and that’s a wild thing to imagine as it has become like clock work to watch these two teams battle it out for the conference crown in late February. It was a fun one in Moraga, but even more than the shared regular season title it means that the Gaels picked up an all important Q1 victory, over a top-10 team no less, so it goes down as a Q1(A) win to boot. It’s a rare year where a win like that can take you from a borderline tourney team to solidly in the field, as so many teams are struggling to pick up big wins. The Gaels are now just 1-3 in Q1, but that 8-1 Q2 record is doing some heavy lifting, as they are now up to 23rd in WAB. I have bemoaned this metric already, but right now I’m being told it matters for inclusion in the tourney, and considering they would be a 6 seed per that metric you have to have them in. I do think the Gonzaga win makes it fairly obvious they are a tourney team, but let’s remember that’s a top-10 team playing without 2 key players in Braden Huff and Jalen Warley. Will that matter to the committee? I don’t think majorly, and since all the metrics back it up, I think they’ll be fine. My only hold up is we’re still talking about a team with 2 top-50 wins and just 3 in the top-75. So while I do believe that Gonzaga win carries some weight, I’m not sure how far up the seed list they can climb without a 2nd one in the WCC tourney. The Gaels will be an interesting test case to see how important WAB is, as in the past they’d be much closer to the seed line than even I have them, with many others out there pushing them even higher than an 8 seed. They don’t play again until March 9, potentially getting Santa Clara in the Semis. A win there should clinch it if they haven’t already.
Teetering:
Santa Clara (40) – Proj. Last 4 In
We welcome in our other test case for the importance of WAB as Santa Clara closed out the season with a big loss @ St. Mary’s, trailing the Gaels for most of the way and dropping to just 1-5 in Q1. They finished strong with the win vs Oregon St, but at the end of the day they have just 1 win against the top-50 (vs St. Mary’s). You see that on its face and you would have to be worried about their chances to get in, but I reiterate we’ve been told WAB will be a critical factor when making decisions about who is in, and right now they’re 40th, above most of the true bubble teams. It’s not a completely new thing either, as last year teams like UNC and Xavier entered Selection Sunday with just 1 Q1 win and were rewarded for having strong Q2 records and clean resumés, so that’s the hope for Santa Clara right now. They need other bubble teams to continue to miss out their chances and for minimal chaos, but they can at least know they have the computers on their side, whatever weight that carries with the committee. What I do know is they absolutely need a win in the WCC tourney to set up the game with St. Mary’s. They don’t play again until March 9th, with potential for a very different landscape by that time.
–A-10–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
St. Louis (24) – Proj. 9 seed
The Billikens continue to make this harder and harder as they’ve now gone just 2-2 over the last couple of weeks, going from very solidly in to a bit murkier with just 2 games to play. The most recent loss was @ Dayton, who has risen now into the top-75 so it amounts to just a Q1 loss, but it’s a 3rd loss to teams outside the top-60. They are still sitting on the sweep of VCU and the neutral site win over Santa Clara as their 3 top-50 wins, but none of those are inside the top-40 so in terms of elite wins they have zero. It’s my opinion you should be removing Q1(A) losses from teams you are comparing St. Louis to, as they haven’t even played a Q1(A) game, so any power conference team shouldn’t be punished for those losses. That’s why they continue to drop for me and haven’t been locked, as the wins are stellar and the losses to bad teams are piling up. If they do win out and then lose to VCU or someone else in the conference tourney, I do think they’d be in, but another slip up prior to that and we’re going to start having some real conversations about this resumé and how it stacks up with other power conference teams. They have a cupcake with Loyola Chi up next, but the trip to George Mason is another chance to drop a bad one. If they just finish 2-0 I won’t be worried, but we’re going to see this one through.
Teetering:
VCU (47) – Proj. Next 4 Out
The Rams did what they had to do as they bounced back from the loss @ St. Louis by beating Fordham at home this past week. That sets up what is now a massive week as Dayton has surged into the top-75, setting up the season finale to be a final Q1 chance for VCU prior to the A-10 tourney. That is the missing link for their resumé as they shockingly still have a shot despite being 0-5 in Q1, with 0 top-50 wins. That is somehow good for 46th in WAB, don’t get me going on that again, but now that we’re rewarding teams for going 17-0 in Q3/4 the way we are VCU is sitting here with a chance as we get into March. If they are able to notch a Q1 win and improve to 1-5 there then they’d be right in the mix with the Santa Clara’s and New Mexico’s, although I’d still see them as a half step behind. They will have chances in the A-10 tourney, but I’d think anything less than a loss to St. Louis would disqualify them. So, as I see it, the path forward is a 2-0 finish this week and then a trip to the A-10 title game, where a loss to St. Louis would be the one they potentially could afford.
Outside Looking in:
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Miami (OH) (52)
The biggest story of college basketball right now are your Miami RedHawks, who continue to roll through their schedule as they are now 29-0. It’s a great mid-major story, and awesome to see considering how top heavy the sport is feeling in the portal/NIL era. Now, I hate to take the air out of the balloon, but I’m sure you’re aware at this point the schedule is Charmin soft, which unfortunately is very bad news when it comes to evaluating them for an at-large spot. I have already heard the discussions about how there is no way they can be left out if they only lose once or if they go undefeated until the MAC final. But are we actually sure about that? Right now I have very little hope that the committee would give an at-large spot to a team without a top-50 win. They would have benefitted greatly from a trip to Akron, but unfortunately their only matchup with them was at home and is just a Q2 win. It would be an unprecedented resumé I will admit, but it is likely they would be stacked up next to high major teams who would have several top-50 wins. The only way I see it happening is if it’s a close loss to Akron, and even then they need the other bubble resumés to be weak. I just don’t see how they would justify to SEC/Big Ten teams who have played a gauntlet of a schedule that a team who played 0 Q1 games is going to get in over them, especially with the metrics evaluating them in the mid-80’s per the prediction sites like Kenpom. Your only argument is they just didn’t have the chance, but if they lose at any point in Q2, what makes me think they could compete in Q1? That is not what I desire the answer to be, as I think it’d be more fun to have them in, but I just can’t see the committee doing it. I hope we don’t have to find out if I’m right.
5-STAR Bracketology 