For those of you new here, Week 1 will give you a full breakdown of what we’re doing. Current bracketology HERE. Most recent Bubble Watch HERE.

Our final update as we now have a bracket and we know where every team stands entering the tournament. What a day, and we have some awesome potential matchups setting up. Obviously off the rip I have to say yes, I think this is going to be a chalk tournament, and here is why. We have 3 teams above the Juggernaut line, there have only been 5 teams to enter the tourney in that position since 2002, all 5 made the Final 4 with 3 of them getting to the title game. That is the big point I want to make clear, the top teams are super good, and while Duke and Michigan are dealing with injuries, we saw both at least get to their conference tournaments shorthanded. Duke should get one of their guys back, so I’m not super worried, although my champ pick is Arizona because they are the healthiest. Some other things to keep in mind:

• Florida is the most vulnerable 1 seed, paired with the best 2 seed Houston, who I picked.
• Matadors and Grinders are vulnerable along with Wannabe and Vanilla, but I usually prefer those first two when matched up with the latter, just because their strength is so strong.
  • Even the highest rated offense and defense in those categories lost. 2012 Mizzou is a top-5 all time offense and lost in the first round, so all of them are vulnerable but hard to nail which ones will fall.
• Solid vs Strong enough is really a personal preference. I tend to default to better overall or a personal matchup preference. You’ll see some picks like Tennessee over UVA or Purdue over Gonzaga, just personal preference.
• The smaller schools that fit on the graph without massively expanding it are here, with Akron and VCU being teams I’m picking for upsets due to their strength and matchups with teams who have injuries. USF over Louisville will be popular, especially with Louisville being the weakest Solid team.
• For the most part the graph is true to the odds, but at some point you have to go personal preference.