Key Departures: Duane Washington (NBA); CJ Walker (Grad); Musa Jallow (–>Charlotte)

New In Town: Jamari Wheeler (<–Penn St); Joey Brunk (<–Indiana); Cedric Russell (<–Louisiana)                       Malaki Branham (#36); Kalen Etzler (#152)

State of the Program:

                  The Buckeyes got out to a hot start a year ago as they rode a lethal offense headed by Duane Washington Jr and EJ Liddell to an 18-4 start, looking like one of the top contenders in the country. Ultimately, their defensive woes caught up to them, as they ended the season 3-6, capped off by a first round loss to 15-seed Oral Roberts in the big dance. Chris Holtmann had to be disappointed all season long by the team’s unwillingness to consistently engage defensively, something rarely seen by a Holtmann lead team. His first 3 years at the helm they were no worse than 25^th in defensive efficiency. Last season they finished 82^nd and it was put on full display as they got smacked around by Kevin Obanor and Max Abmas, who put up 59 combined points in that thrilling 1^st round loss. The good news for this Buckeyes program is they get 1^st team All-Conference EJ Liddell (JR) back to lead a very talented group of returning players. Another bit of good news is Washington and Walker both leave after being the worst defenders on the team, so a return to quality defensive play might be in order. Joining Liddell to form one of the oldest groups in the Big Ten are F Justice Sueing (SR), F/C Kyle Young (SR), G Justin Ahrens (SR), F Seth Towns (SR), C Zed Key (SO), G/F Eugene Brown III (SO), and G Meechie Johnson Jr (SO). That gives Holtmann 8 returning pieces, 6 of which had large roles a season ago for a team that was a 2 seed in the tournament so expectations are high once again in Columbus.

What’s New:

                  Holtmann immediately addressed the defensive inefficiencies by going and getting 2x Big Ten All-Defensive Team G Jamari Wheeler (SR) from Penn St. Big Ten guards know Wheeler well, and he should come in and replace Walker as the primary PG and hopefully lead by example in terms of his defensive energy. C Joey Brunk (SR) also transfers intra-conference to rejoin his old Coach at Butler, and looks to provide depth at the 5. I would expect Young and Key to get the majority of the minutes there, however the Buckeyes were beaten up inside pretty bad by the Conferences elite big men last year, so Holtmann may be eyeing Brunk as a guy to go to battle with the likes of Trevion Williams, Kofi Cockburn, and Hunter Dickinson with the idea of going to a big lineup in those matchups. The last transfer is G Cedric Russell (SR) out of Louisiana. Russell was 1^st Team All-Conference in the Sun Belt and averaged 17 ppg shooting 40% from 3 at a high volume. He will likely try and fill the playmaking void left behind by Washington, and could start in the backcourt or be a sparkplug off the bench in a 6^th man role. 6’5” G Malaki Branham (#36) leads the Freshman group and looks primed to come in and have an impact with this team. He excels at finishing above the rim and even shows a nice looking stroke from outside that should help him develop into a go-to guy for the Buckeyes in the years to come. He will battle sophomore’s Brown and Johnson for a backup G role and I like him to outperform both of them and earn backup minutes. PF Kalen Etzler (#152) will find himself on the outside looking in and will likely redshirt, so we’ll evaluate his skillset and impact next year.

Prediction:

                  A lot of depth again this year for Holtmann, with a lot of returning veteran talent to continue to build with. The trio of Liddell, Sueing, and Young should start every game if healthy, at the 3/4/5 spots. That leaves the backcourt open, and I’d expect Wheeler and Ahrens as the veterans to get the start there. Russell, and in my opinion Branham, will probably emerge as the backups, with Russell even playing starters minutes if he’s hot. Key and Brunk figure to get the backup minutes up front, especially against the bigger Conference teams as I mentioned earlier. Liddell is a superstar that will control the offense, and I like him to emerge as an All-American and lead this group unequivocally. I’ve always likened him to former Gamecock and March superstar Sindarious Thornwell, and I can see him putting on that type of performance this season. Sueing will get the chance to expand his game and be a great Robin to Liddell’s Batman, helping to shoulder the load. All of this provides the Buckeyes with more than enough firepower to contend again at the top of the Conference and the country. My focus will solely be on their defense and how, if at all, it improves this year. If they can work back towards the top-25 defense they were prior to last year I think that more than makes up for the loss of Duane Washington’s scoring, and I think they will fare way better down the stretch and into March. If that doesn’t happen it will be more heartbreak, because as I always say if you don’t defend you don’t win in March. I do look for the D to improve and for Ohio St to contend and make a March run.

Key Departures: Franz Wagner (NBA); Mike Smith (Grad); Chaundee Brown (Grad); Isiah Livers (Grad); Austin Davis (Grad)

New In Town: DeVante’ Jones (<–C. Carolina); Caleb Houstan (#9); Moussa Diabate (#16); Kobe Bufkin (#45); Frankie Collins (#46); Isiah Barnes (#112); Will Tschetter (#139)

State of the Program:

                  Absolutely nobody saw this Michigan team coming a year ago, but after an 18-1 start many had them pegged as the ultimate challenger to the seemingly inevitable Baylor-Gonzaga finale. An injury to Isiah Livers ended up being just enough of a hit to keep them from getting to challenge the Zags in the Final Four, as they lost a heartbreaker in the Elite 8. That run and a Conference Championship for this team and Juwan Howard in his 2^nd year at the helm was the biggest surprise of the season. After taking a step in the wrong direction in year 1 he returned the program back to its old ways, playing controlled offense and absolutely smothering D. Coming back to keep the train going is 2^nd Team All-American and leading scorer, big man Hunter Dickinson (SO), who was right up there with Suggs/Cunningham as the most productive Freshmen in the country. They also get back starting G Eli Brooks (SR), who has chosen to take his 5^th Covid year and return, along with reserves Brandon Johns (SR), Zeb Jackson (SO), and Terrence Williams (SO). Combine all that with the Nation’s top rated recruiting class and it’s obvious they have a legitimate shot to repeat their Conference Championship, and maybe breakthrough to the Final Four.

What’s New:

                  Despite losing 5 rotation pieces from last year’s group the Wolverines expect to contend at the same level this season, and that is largely due to the absurdly talented group coming to Ann Arbor. We’ll kick it off with Coastal Carolina transfer G DeVante’ Jones (SR). The 6’1” Jones was the Sun Belt POY last year scoring 19.3 ppg. He’s a stocky G that attacks the basket with creativity and strength, and is a menace on D, much in the mold of Zavier Simpson. He should join Brooks in the starting backcourt and together they will provide stability for this young team. Next up, 5-star 6’8” F Caleb Houston (#9). Houston is the perfect new era stretch 4, with a sweet stroke from outside and the ability to attack the basket on blow byes. He’s not the most explosive athlete, but at 6’8” to have his stroke and handles he’ll likely be a lottery pick, and he should come in and start at the 3 or 4 next to Dickinson. Howard will have an interesting decision in terms of playing big or small, and that likely depends on the other 5 star Freshman, 6’10” PF/C Moussa Diabate (#16). Diabate represents mostly the inverse of Houston, as he’s a gifted athlete who affects the game with his shot blocking and above the rim finishing. He is a force in transition and on the offensive glass and should have a big role with the Wolverines this year. I would expect though, due to the lack of a consistent jump shot from Diabate, he will serve mostly as the backup 5 to Dickinson, with Houston at the 4 in order to keep the paint open for Dickinson to go to work. Also figuring to rotate at the 4 is Johns Jr, so a lot of options for Howard. Kobe Bufkin (#45) and Frankie Collins (#46) will join a crowded backcourt looking to compete for playing time. Bufkin’s a 6’4” CG who gives off De’Aaron Fox vibes with his ability to attack downhill and use his elite athleticism to score in a variety of ways. He will get a crack at playing time, and should develop into a star down the road with improvements to his jumper. Collins is a 6’1” PG who fits the mold of a more traditional point, attacking the basket with creativity both to score and facilitate. His jump shot needs some development, but he’s springy and twitchy with the ball, and should battle with Zeb Jackson and Jones for time at the point. There really will be a 4 man battle for the 5^th starting spot and reserve backcourt minutes between these 2 and Jackson and Williams, who were top-100 recruits in last year’s class. All 4 are uber talented, but if I had to predict I would expect Terrance Williams to get the nod at the 3 to start, and the other 3 to be fighting for backup minutes. The other 2 freshman Isiah Barnes (#110) and Will Tschetter (#137) likely find themselves on the outside looking in and are sure to redshirt, so come back next year for a breakdown on them.

Prediction:

                  This gives Howard a solid group of 10 creating massive competition for minutes. Dickinson and Brooks are locked in, but the other 8 will be battling all fall to establish their roles. With all of that fluidity it could take some time for this group to find its footing, but if Howard can get this mass of talent to find some cohesion Michigan becomes one of the most dangerous teams in the country. With a go-to big in Dickinson, and plenty of shooters in Brooks, Jones, and Houston to space the floor, they could develop into a lethal offensive team. On D they’ll look to Jones and Williams step in and fill the toughness void left behind by the departures. As long as these Freshmen live up to the hype I think they have the right mix of experience and top end talent to have the highest ceiling of any Big Ten team, with legitimate Final Four aspirations.

Key Departures: Ayo Dosunmu (NBA); Giorgi Bezhanishvili (NBA); Adam Miller (–>LSU)

New In Town: Alfonso Plummer (<–Utah); Omar Payne (<–Florida); Ramses Melendez (#92); Luke Goode (#99); Brandin Podziemski (#105)

State of the Program:

                  Brad Underwood has come in and resuscitated a program that had devolved into irrelevance for the last 15 years after dominating in the early 2000’s. Last year’s group established the return of the Illini, ending the season on a 14-1 streak, including a Big Ten Tournament Championship, as they entered the Madness one of the hottest teams in the country. Unfortunately for them, they didn’t show up game 2 and got out-worked and out-executed by a less talented Loyola (Chi) team. A disappointing end to a great season, but the wave of momentum that has engulfed the program should continue to build in spite of the losses of Dosunmu and Adam Miller as they still welcome back a ton of firepower. That group is led by the return of consensus 2^nd Team All-American C Kofi Cockburn (JR), who returns to the Illini as a bona fide superstar. His dominance in the interior on both ends gives the Illini a weapon coaches dream about. Combine that with Big Ten 6^th MOY and All-Freshman Andre Curbelo (SO) ready to take over the offense at the point, alongside the 5^th year for Trent Frazier (SR) and Da’Monte Williams (SR), returning role players Jacob Grandison (SR) and Coleman Hawkins (SO), and it’s clear this program isn’t going anywhere.

What’s New:

                  Not only do the Illini welcome back a solid core from last year’s group, they’re bringing in a nice combination of transfers and Freshmen to help the cause, led by Utah transfer 6’1” G Alfonso Plummer (JR). Plummer is very similar to new teammate Trent Frazier, small, twitchy and throws absolute darts from outside. A career 40% 3-point shooter he averaged nearly 14 ppg last year for the Utes, with ability off catch and shoot opportunities as well as off the bounce, he should step in to fill the Adam Miller void. Next is Florida transfer 6’9” F Omar Payne (JR), who will likely serve as the primary backup to Cockburn inside. Payne is a freak athlete who never really found his footing in Gainesville, but he was a top-50 recruit and should rebound and block shots as a nice backup big. DIII transfer 6’6” G/F Austin Hutcherson (JR) also returns from injury looking to get his first D1 action this season. He was a prolific scorer at the DIII level and will compete for the starting 3 spot. Ramses Melendez (#92) leads the freshmen group as a 6’7” SF who comes in as a good athlete that is very effective on the catch and shoot from outside. He’ll need to improve his playmaking to get to the next level, but his stroke and athleticism should make him a productive player for this program. This year he will battle veterans for backup minutes. The 6’7” SF Luke Goode (#99) is a very similar prospect to Melendez, a little less athletic but a sniper from deep he should develop as a solid piece. His athleticism likely limits him this season, as a redshirt seems likely to be on the horizon for him. Brandin Podziemski (#105) rounds out the class as a 6’5” SG that I am the most high on in this entire class. Rankings have him last but his playmaking ability and feel for the game look to be already a step ahead of his classmates, and his lefty stroke looks good as well. He knows how to create for himself with ability at all 3 levels, and that distinguishes him from the other 2. Not saying he has a big role this year, he may even redshirt, but when it’s all said and done I like his production to be the highest of this group.

Prediction:

                  Underwood has a lot to work with here, with a veteran core, impact transfers and a nice group of Freshmen. I’d expect Curbelo and Frazier to man the backcourt, with Cockburn and Grandison likely starting at the 4/5 spots. The 3 is where things get interesting, as Plummer is likely the 5^th best guy but starting 3 6’1” guys seems unlikely. A 3 man platoon in the backcourt seems likely, with Hutcherson the best fit at the 3. He could also go big and put the 6’10” sniper Hawkins out there with Grandison. Regardless, the trio of Curbelo/Frazier/Cockburn immediately make this team a top contender, and the complimentary pieces falling into place only furthers the case. They were top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency last season, and I expect with the return of Kofi the defense does not fall off one bit. The loss of Ayo hurts the offense, but Curbelo is ready to explode as the QB of the offense, and it may actually eliminate their tendency to stand and watch Ayo go to work, helping them be more involved as a unit. Frazier/Plummer/Hutcherson are all good/great shooters and will make one of the better backcourts in the Conference. Kofi seals the deal if he can repeat his AA performance from last season, creating a 3-headed monster at the top of the Big Ten all of which are more than capable of representing the Conference in the Final Four.

Key Departures: Aaron Wheeler (–>St. John’s)

New In Town: Trey Kaufman (#43); Caleb Furst (#63); Brian Waddell (NR)



State of the Program:

            Matt Painter and the Boilermakers enter this season on the heels of what has to be the best coaching job of Painter’s career. Last year’s group featured 0 Seniors and only 5 guys who had ever played collegiate basketball, and they rallied from a 7-5 start to finish 4^th in the Big Ten and earn a 4 seed in the big dance. The disappointing 1^st round upset should serve as both motivation and valuable experience for one of this year’s favorites in the Conference, as Painter gets back all 5 starters and 8 of 9 regular rotation guys. That returning group is headlined by 1^st Team All-Conference big man Trevion Williams (SR) and All-Freshman and emerging star Jaden Ivey (SO). Ivey came to campus a year ago like a wild mustang that Painter was challenged with taming, as he was filled with untethered ability and unwavering confidence, which led to as many highlight reel moments as head scratching ones. His numbers on the season won’t wow you, but if you were paying close attention he came on strong to end the season, averaging 15.8 ppg the last 10, scoring in double figures 9 of those 10. The game seemed to click for him, as he worked to harness his limitless potential, and the anticipation of a Sophomore jump has Boilermaker fans oozing with excitement. Joining Ivey in a crowded backcourt are 4 returning pieces in PG Eric Hunter (SR), G Sasha Stefanovic (SR), G Brandon Newman (SO) and PG Isiah Thompson (JR). I would expect things to look similar as a year ago, with Hunter and Stefanovic to join Ivey as starters, Newman rotating heavily and Thompson spelling Hunter at the point. The frontcourt is equally as loaded, with 3 returning and 2 stud Freshmen set to arrive on campus. At the 5 should be the classic 2 man rotation Painter deploys seemingly every year, with Trevion the headliner and 7’4”All-Freshman returnee Zach Edey (SO) as the best backup 5 in the country. Mason Gillis (SO) also returns after stealing the starting 4 spot and never looking back in his first season, but some off the court trouble clouds his future, especially with the incoming Freshmen who will both be competing for those minutes. All of this firepower have made expectations the highest they’ve been in West Lafayette since the Baby Boilers era. 

Reinforcements:

And about those Freshmen. 6’8” PF Trey Kaufman (#43) headlines this year’s group and boy is he an exciting prospect. Reminding you of a guy like De’Andre Hunter, he’s a matchup nightmare as he can punish smaller defensive players with a crafty post-up game while also having the ability to attack bigger, slower defenders off the bounce. His jump shot looks good and he can stretch out to the 3 point line, however it’s a bit slow from catch to release, something he will need to improve, a la former Boiler Vince Edwards. If he can hang defensively he could leap Gillis at the 4, but regardless he should have a big role in the rotation either way. Not to be out-hyped is 2021 Indiana Mr. Basketball 6’8” PF/C Caleb Furst (#63). The southpaw projects as a 4 year mega producer, similar to a guy like former ND star Luke Harangody, as his athleticism will limit his NBA future but his craftiness and motor will eventually make him a nightly double-double threat. He flashes a nice lefty hook and his jump shot looks like it can develop into a solid weapon, but he’ll come onto campus looking to carve out minutes as the 5^th interior player on this roster. 6’7” Brian Waddell (NR) is the 3^rd member of this class and will likely redshirt year one as an under-recruited, high IQ high motor kid. He will surely make his presence known in a couple of years. It’s simply the Purdue way…cue the Grady Eifert highlights.

Prediction:

It’s an embarrassment of riches for Coach Painter as he has a strong group of 10 guys that could, and should, play their own important role for this year’s team. How he handles the Gillis/Kaufman/Furst conundrum is the storyline to watch early. Will he go big and slide Gillis to the 3 some to work in Kaufman/Furst at the 4? And what does that do to the 5 man backcourt that would be squeezed to 2 positions? Eventually I see one of Thompson/Furst getting buried to create a 9 man rotation, and it could even be matchup dependent to determine the small/big lineup. Either way, there will be heavy competition for playing time beyond Ivey and Williams, and as they say iron sharpens iron so I can only expect Painter to relish being in this position. On a macro level, thanks to the duo of Jaden Ivey and Trevion Williams this team is positioned to cut nets this season, as a Conference championship and Final Four trip are as realistic goals as I can imagine for Purdue. How Ivey develops as a star and go-to scorer is the key factor in getting this team over the hump, and if it happens Purdue will be must watch TV all season and can vie for a National Championship.