We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. For those of you who are new here there’s a quick refresher further below, but off the jump we’re going to dive into some thoughts on Auburn and address why it may be the prevailing opinion that the Tigers are the clear #1 and what that means for the contenders/pretenders discussion.

Auburn right now is the darling of every efficiency nerd out there, gasping at the absurd offensive efficiency numbers they have put up through 15 games. And it is historic, worthy of a gasp even. However, based on what I have setup here with the archetypes, Auburn doesn’t land in the top tier, with a 19th ranked defense they are left in what I would call the 2nd tier right now with teams like Florida and Houston. Many would find that absurd, maybe just write off the entire exercise based on that one fact. However wild it may seem, I am just looking at the data, and what history can tell us. Above all, if you’re just looking for me to tell you the highest rated teams are the best teams then you’re in the wrong place. I’m trying to separate teams, to understand why the best don’t always win it all. Right now what it suggests is that Auburn’s holes defensively are an indicator, one that puts pressure on their offense to be elite every night, which they have done well with so far I might add. Even the one loss to Duke they scored 78 points on 63 possessions which is highly efficient, but it wasn’t enough as they gave up 84 to the Blue Devils. Therein-lies the concern, could they be hampered in an Elite 8 game by their defensive issues, facing another top flight offense that could find a way to slow them down just enough. Iowa St nearly did it, leading by 16 at halftime only to fall by 2 while scoring 81 on 71 possessions. Even Houston pushed them to the brink putting up 1.11 ppp in a 5 point loss that they led with 10 minutes to go. So in their 3 games against other top teams they went 2-1 with all games decided by 6 points or less. What that suggests to me is the gap isn’t as wide as people think, because they are struggling to get stops consistently. I’m not suggesting Auburn is bad, or that they’re a first weekend upset pick, not in the slightest. But in a year where there are several elite teams establishing themselves, Duke/Iowa St, who show elite ability on both ends of the floor, you should at least think twice about crowning Auburn the obvious best team. As the data shows, we have seen time and time again elite offensive teams lose because they couldn’t get stops, and while Auburn is still a top-20 defensive team, they’ve fallen from top-10, so a worrisome trend. It’s also something that could get remedied over the coming weeks but I had to touch on it as the prevailing thought is they’re the obvious #1, but you’ll see below that’s not the thought here at this moment in time.

Quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.

So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.

The 8 Archetypes are:

• Elite
• Great
• Solid
• Strong Enough
• Matadors
• Grinders
• Vanilla
• Wannabe’s

Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.

This week’s update plus 2nd graphic to show movement from 2 weeks ago to this week:

ELITE:

Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with an whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.

Auburn continues to fade, as discussed above at length, but Iowa St and Duke are really starting to establish themselves as elite teams. This is Iowa St’s 2nd week here and Duke has been here multiple weeks in a row. Duke is going to have it pretty easy throughout ACC play, so it’ll be tougher for Iowa St to remain here but either way these are the two at the top of my list right now.

GREAT:

The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.

We have nobody falling here this week in a bit of a surprise but in weeks to come I’m sure that will change.

SOLID:

Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.

We have a bunch of teams right here knocking on the door of great but just not quite there. Florida’s defensive numbers are being bogged down by 2 games against UK and UNC in which they gave up 84 and 106 respectively. I see them moving up soon, and Auburn is fading defensively but could easily snap back up a peg. I’m not sure Houston is good enough offensively to crack the top-15 but they have bounced around quite a bit so we’ll see how it goes. The others aren’t as strong but newcomers Michigan and Arizona are getting hot as we roll through January.

STRONG ENOUGH:

This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).

Tennessee took a big hit with the blowout loss to Florida, but beyond Lanier they have nobody who can consistently score so I wouldn’t be surprised if they hang out here going forward. Bama continues to improve defensively as they’ve solidly moved here from Matador territory and are going to opposite direction as Gonzaga who has faded from Solid to here. Sparty finall broke free from Wannabe status and finds themselves here behind some great D and finally St. John’s, who has slowly been drifting toward Grinders status for a while now, will they hold on?

MATADORS

Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.

Finally a bit of a change here as Purdue and Baylor busted out and UK and Texas Tech found their way in. UConn is fading defensively but hanging around the top-30 thanks to Hurley’s offensive genius. Either way, can’t trust these teams.

GRINDERS:

Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.

UCLA seems to be a permanent resident here, unless they fall out of the top-30 like Cincy did. The Johnnies are flirting with this land and San Diego St is 31st but would join UCLA here if they crack the top-30 next week. No trust for these teams either.

WANNABE’S

I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.

We have 2 groups here imo, with A&M and Miss St being on the brink of Solid status and the rest hoping to break into strong enough territory. I doubt we see Purdue/Baylor/Wisconsin enter the top-25 defensively, but all are surging as the Badgers are new overall and Purdue/Baylor have made their way here from Matador status. All of these teams are still alive to be trustworthy down the road and all are improving week by week.

VANILLA:

These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.

UNC and Ole Miss are back as they re-enter following the fall of teams like Cincy and Clemson. They are not exceptionally strong on either end, that’s why they’re here, so if they do hang around the top-30 it might continue to be in Vanilla land. Oregon bounced back from their beating by Illinois but still haven’t separated themselves, and Pitt and Memphis look like they belong right here or not even in the top-30. Also Maryland is in a free fall, we’ll see if they bounce back.

We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. For those of you who are new here there’s a quick refresher further below, but off the jump we’re going to dive into why I chose “ranks” over “rating” when compiling and comparing all of this data, which seemed to be a hot topic last week.

The primary reason for ranks is how much the game has changed as we’ve simultaneously improved the skill level of players over the last 20 years and also embraced an analytical approach. Teams are simply able to score with more efficiency these days, and the numbers show that. If you look at ORating in 2006, a top-25 offense just needed to be >113. This year there are 63 teams that have an ORating >113. If you look at >115, it’s 13 vs 42. So, if you’re using rating, you would look at a team that is only the 42nd best scoring team in the country this year and be comparing their tourney results (if they even made the tourney) to a team from 2006 that was the 13th most efficient offense in the country in the season that mattered to them. You could say, well yeah but I want to see how a team that efficient performs, but to that I would say you’re trying to compare a 2025 Tesla to a 2005 Dodge Durango. How about we look at that Durango in the context of its time, how it performed against its competition. IE, how did the 15th best offense in 2006 compare to the 15th best offense in 2024 (even though the rating difference is 114.9 vs 119.7). The point is for both teams there were only 14 teams in the country more efficient than them scoring the ball, regardless of how good it was, in context, they are far more similar than comparing that 114.9 to what would’ve been the 43rd best offense in 2024. And it’s not just at the extremes, the entire landscape of the game has shifted to increased offensive efficiency, meaning not just the most efficient teams are better, all teams are better as you saw above. So, in order to properly compare teams of the past to teams of the present, to try and figure out why some teams who are highly efficient make deep runs and others don’t, I looked at how they “ranked” amongst their competition. Florida in 2006 was objectively an elite team and won the National title, they were 3rd on O (117.9) and 7th on D (89.7). If you transplanted them to 2025 that would be 25th and 5th, but they didn’t have to play 2025 teams in March of 2006. So, if I was trying to draw a line on what I would consider elite I would want to capture 2006 Florida, so I would have to draw the ORating line to include 117.9. I then would have to include at least 25 teams this year, which is far more than what I would consider worthy of being called “Elite”. Ranks, at the end of the day, are the best apples to apples historical comparison given the changes we’ve seen. You could argue those comparisons are unnecessary since the game has changed I suppose, but in a world where we want to analyze why the best teams don’t always go on deep runs a historical analysis seems logical, and using rating would result in a skewed view of what the teams of the past were, which would impact what we think of teams today. End scene.

Quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.

So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.

The 8 Archetypes are:

• Elite
• Great
• Solid
• Strong Enough
• Matadors
• Grinders
• Vanilla
• Wannabe’s

Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.

This week’s update plus 2nd graphic to show movement from first week to this week:

ELITE:

Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St and Auburn land here with Duke still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. Over 2/3’s of teams who enter the tourney as top-10 on both ends teams have made it to the Elite 8 which is an astounding number given just a slight dip to top-15 drops to 55%.

We lost Auburn from this group this week but I wouldn’t make too much of it, as their offense is still looking so elite. UConn entered the tourney last year looking very similar at 1st and 11th, so with Auburn at 1st and 12th they are right here with Duke in my mind as the two most trustworthy teams as it stands.

GREAT:

The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here, as we do this week. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.

Already mentioned Auburn and Marquette has been a mainstay among the quality teams this year, the bigger surprise is Illinois who blew out Oregon to fly up the rankings. We’ll see if they maintain this level of play, but that sure was an impressive performance and one a young team can build on.

SOLID:

Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.

Tennessee, Houston and Iowa St are all sliding as we enter conference play as the’ve taken hits on their weaker ends of the floor. That is very consistent with what we’ve seen in the past with Houston and Tennessee, but interesting to see Iowa St flip and be better offensively than on D. Of the 3 they are the ones I could see returning to better places if they lock down on D. As we recognize the sliders we must also mention Michigan entered the chat, pushing all the way from Vanilla to Solid as Big Ten play gets rolling again.

STRONG ENOUGH:

This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.)

MATADORS

Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.

UConn, Baylor and Purdue are all solidly living in this archetype, looking like teams to avoid come March. Kentucky and Bama have both flirted with this territory as well, so there’s as many as 5 teams worth tracking if they can improve defensively over the coming weeks.

GRINDERS:

Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.

Cincy has now joined UCLA in Grinder territory, with a couple of wins in true grind it out fashion as they barely scored over 1 point/possession against a poor defensive team in Dayton.

WANNABE’S

I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.

This week St. John’s and Kentucky both dropped big time into dangerous territory and are stories to watch as we keep tracking week by week.

VANILLA:

These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.

Memphis and Clemson are our new entrants as UNC and Ole Miss fell out this week. They are not exceptionally strong on either end, that’s why they’re here, so if they do hang around the top-30 it might continue to be in Vanilla land. Oregon took a beating at the hands of Illinois so we’ll see how they rebound from that this next week as they’re falling quickly toward sub-30 territory after being “Solid” at one time.

We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. For those of you who are new here stick this through for a quick explanation, for the vets on this page you can skip this intro unless you’d like a refresher. The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.

So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.

The 8 Archetypes are:

• Elite
• Great
• Solid
• Strong Enough
• Run N’ Gun
• Grinders
• Vanilla
• Wannabe’s

Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.

This week’s update plus 2nd graphic to show movement from last week:

ELITE:

Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St land here and Auburn and Duke are sliding in this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. Over 2/3’s of teams who enter the tourney as top-10 on both ends teams have made it to the Elite 8 which is an astounding number given just a slight dip to top-15 drops to 55%.

So far this year Auburn has clearly looked like the best team in the country in my opinion, given the quality of wins and how they’ve done so. Their defensive rank has lagged a bit but after last week they’ve vaulted into this category alongside Duke who flexes on the other end. Duke has more room to improve just given the number of FR that are getting better and better, but both are beginning to separate themselves.

GREAT:

The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here, as we do this week. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.

SOLID:

Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.

It does stand to reason you can have a bit more confidence in Gonzaga with their #3 offense than Oregon who is teetering on Vanilla status. Context and some discretion is of course advised here on all of these, but the implication here is that these teams have less of a hammer to lean on compared to teams like Auburn and Duke who are the best teams in the country on one end of the floor but also elite on the other. So while Gonzaga is elite offensively their lack of defensive might signals a potential weakness, albeit not to the extreme of our more vulnerable teams below.

STRONG ENOUGH:

This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Run N’ Gun” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability though, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.)

RUN’ N GUN

Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the track meet types, who struggle to stop you but can score at an elite level and whose ability to win relies on winning a shootout. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.

UConn, Baylor and Purdue are all solidly living in this archetype, looking like teams to avoid come March. Kentucky and Bama have both flirted with this territory as well, so there’s as many as 5 teams worth tracking if they can improve defensively over the coming weeks.

GRINDERS:

Similar to the Run N’ Gun group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.

Cincy has now joined UCLA in Grinder territory, with a couple of wins in true grind it out fashion as they barely scored over 1 point/possession against a poor defensive team in Dayton.

WANNABE’S

I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.

This week St. John’s and Kentucky both dropped big time into dangerous territory and are stories to watch as we keep tracking week by week.

VANILLA:

These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.

Ohio St is a new entrant to the top-30 after dismantling Kentucky so we’ll see if they stay hot and improve on their position. Clemson fell out and Ole Miss dropped into dangerous territory as they’re barely hanging on.

Welcome to the place where we try and separate the contenders from the pretenders in college basketball. I’m sure if you’re here you have your own healthy cynicism when it comes to the AP poll or the NET rankings, but with all the ways to measure teams out there the picture can get muddy real quick no matter how you look at it. I’m going to try and make it clearer for those of us who are focused on one thing, March success. Forget about neutral court favorability or which team is deserving of what seed, let’s just figure out who’s going to succeed in March.

The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.

So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to identify what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.

The 8 Archetypes are:

• Elite
• Great
• Solid
• Strong Enough
• Run N’ Gun
• Grinders
• Vanilla
• Wannabe’s

Below I will briefly explain each category and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, there has never been a team in the “Great” category lose in the 1st round (100% R2), which also applied to the Elite category until last year when Auburn lost to Yale, a loss on par with Virginia losing to UMBC as a first-of-its-kind while receiving a tenth of the attention, I should add.

Visual of what’s to come

ELITE:

Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Shockingly, you’ll find these teams perform the best in the tourney, with even better chances of advancing than even just the standard 1 seeds (by an average of about a 3% increase). This flies in the face of anyone who wants to tell you the best teams don’t win, as oftentimes they mistake the highest seeded teams for the “best”, when statistically that isn’t always the case, especially once you break from the 1 seed line. In fact, over 2/3’s of teams that fell into this archetype made it to at least the Elite 8 as you can see above, which is 12% higher than any other archetype and at least 54% better than any of my vulnerable categories. Of course, as with Auburn last year, there are statistical outliers, but if you’re trying to find what historically has the best odds when picking a team to go on a deep run, this is it.

GREAT:

The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here, as we do this week. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.

SOLID:

Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible so they’ve been combined, but it stands to reason you can have a bit more confidence in Gonzaga with their #2 offense than St. John’s who is teetering on Wannabe status. Context and some discretion is of course advised here.

STRONG ENOUGH:

This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. You will see it’s a stark difference in success from the “Run N’ Gun” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness.

RUN’ N GUN

Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the track meet types, who struggle to stop you but can score at an elite level and whose ability to win relies on winning a shootout. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.

GRINDERS:

Similar to the Run N’ Gun group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.

WANNABE’S

I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.

VANILLA:

These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top teams but without that true identity to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.

Welcome to the place where we try and separate the contenders from the pretenders in college basketball. I’m sure if you’re here you have your own healthy cynicism when it comes to the AP poll or the NET rankings, but with all the ways to measure teams out there the picture can get muddy real quick no matter how you look at it. I’m going to try and make it clearer for those of us who are focused on one thing, March success. Forget about neutral court favorability or which team is deserving of what seed, let’s just figure out who’s going to succeed in March.

Many will try and convince you March Madness is all random, that the best team doesn’t actually win, or that the upsets and format diminish the significance of the glory found at the end of the most difficult 6-game winning streak to obtain in sports. I mean for crying out loud they lost to their mom in their family bracket challenge and she picked based on Mascots…It must be random! While I recognize losing to someone who happened to pick Golden Grizzlies (Oakland) to beat Wildcats (Kentucky) can lead to this kind of thinking, I’m here to help shine a light on some ways to avoid betting on a doomed horse come March. I’m not going to give you a sure-fire way to know every upset, nor am I claiming to have the ability to get a perfect bracket, but there is more to this thing than purely just throwing darts and hoping.

The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year. Trying to pick Cinderella is like trying to hit a baseball blindfolded, you’re just up there taking hacks hoping to get lucky. We’re trying to avoid all that, knowing that while she may get to the ball it’s very unlikely she goes home with the crown.

So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to identify what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. My 8 archetypes are as follows, Elite – Great – Solid – Strong Enough – Run N’ Gun – Grinders – Vanilla – Wannabe’s. Below I will briefly explain each category and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There is also a graphic that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, there has never been a team in the “Great” category lose in the 1st round (100% R2), which also applied to the Elite category until last year when Auburn lost to Yale, a loss on par with Virginia losing to UMBC as a first of its kind while receiving a tenth of the attention, I should add. You’ll also notice that with each step down from Elite–>Great–>Solid you should lose some confidence in those teams and their chances to advance. With the last 4 we’re looking at the more vulnerable groups, which you can read about more in those sections. So, let’s just dive into it.

Visual of what’s to come

ELITE:

Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Shockingly, you’ll find these teams perform the best in the tourney, with even better chances of advancing than even just the standard 1 seeds (by an average of about a 3% increase). This flies in the face of anyone who wants to tell you the best teams don’t win, as oftentimes they mistake the highest seeded teams for the “best”, when statistically that isn’t always the case, especially once you break from the 1 seed line. There are countless examples of this, and of course as with Auburn last year there are statistical outliers, but if you’re trying to find what historically has the best odds when picking a team to go on a deep run, this is it.

• #2 Tennessee: (10 Off) (2 Def)
• #6 Iowa St: (6) – (10)

GREAT:

The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.

• #3 Duke: (13) – (1)
• #5 Houston: (11) – (3)
• #10 Marquette: (15) – (12)

SOLID:

Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible so they’ve been combined, but it stands to reason you can have a bit more confidence in Auburn with their #1 offense than Kansas who is teetering on Wannabe status. Context and some discretion is of course advised here.

• #1 Auburn: (1) – (25)
• #4 Gonzaga: (2) – (20)
• #9 Kentucky: (9) – (24)
• #11 Kansas: (22) – (9)
• #15 Illinois: (25) – (17)

STRONG ENOUGH:

This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. You will see it’s a stark difference in success from the “Run N’ Gun” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness.

• #7 Alabama: (4) – (35)
• #8 Florida: (5) – (30)
• #14 UCLA: (48) – (4)
• #19 Clemson: (40) – (6)

RUN’ N GUN

Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the track meet types, who struggle to stop you but can score at an elite level and whose ability to win relies on winning a shootout. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.

• #12 UConn: (3) – (92)
• #16 Baylor: (7) – (76)
• #18 Purdue: (8) – (63)

GRINDERS:

Similar to the Run N’ Gun group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent bases. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others. Interestingly at this time we don’t have any that qualify, but both UCLA and San Diego St are teams to watch as both are close.

WANNABE’S

These are the wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.

• #13 St. John’s: (30) – (14)
• #18 Cincinnati: (31) – (15)
• #20 Maryland: (36) – (13)
• #21 Oregon: (20) – (26)
• #22 Michigan St: (29) – (19)
• #23 Texas A&M: (46) – (11)
• #24 Michigan: (38) – (18)
• #25 Texas Tech: (19) – (40)
• #26 Mississippi St: (17) – (53)
• #27 Ole Miss: (14) – (72)

VANILLA:

These are your average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top teams but without that true identity to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.

• #28 Arizona: (24) – (37)
• #29 Ohio St: (21) – (39)
• #30 UNC: (23) – (44)

Pre-Season Prediction

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1.) Duke (#3)

State of the Program:

Jon Scheyer inherited probably the best situation in college basketball and to his credit he has kept the train on the tracks. While he hasn’t won the ACC or been to a Final 4 he’s still bringing in ridiculous amounts of talent, with this year’s freshman group the best yet. They have a little bit of experience coming back with Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster back, plus some veteran transfers like Sion James, Maliq Brown and Mason Gillis who could all find roles. Let’s be honest though, the story is this FR class and they are going to determine just how good this Duke team can be this year. Leading the show is a guy we all know at this point Cooper Flagg. I’m sure most of you reading this have at least seen some highlights by now, but for those that are living under a rock this kid is the slam dunk #1 pick in next year’s draft as at 6’8″ he can do everything, from knocking down shots, creating his own offense to rebounding and blocking shots inside. He is going to lead the team in scoring and be must-watch TV every time on the floor. Next guy in the rankings is 7’2″ center Khaman Maluach who is a long, lanky, athletic 5 man that is going to cause problems as a shot blocker and be a force on the glass. He hasn’t been starting in their scrimmages but certainly will get plenty of time at the 5 this year, especially if he develops and improves as the year goes on. Next is Isaiah Evans who should be a bench contributor but has a ton of upside as a wing. I’ve seen him referenced as baby Ingram (Brandon Ingram I’m assuming) but I see more Malik Monk as he’s a little smaller than Ingram and more of a high flyer than Ingram. He has an eccentric personality with a swagger bordering on arrogance, so I’m curious to see how he transitions to the college game. Next is Kon Kneuppel who has been a starter in their scrimmages and is by all accounts the best shooter of the basketball in the class, and maybe out of the gates one of the best in the country. If that’s the case he will be a nightmare in college this year and off to the NBA next summer. Transfer Sion James has been starting with Kneuppel and Foster in the backcourt, with Flagg joining Brown in the frontcourt so far in the scrimmages, which gives the Blue Devils 5 guys who can shoot the 3 and versatility on defense. Proctor figures to be a major contributor too though as he’s a natural playmaker for others and they will likely need that in the half court some. That’s a solid group off the bench with Maluach and Gillis able to rotate in the frontcourt and Evans and Sheffield adding to Proctor in the backcourt. Pretty easy to see the hype.

Prediction:

I have them 3rd for a reason and that’s purely because this is probably the best group of FR we’ve seen come in together since Duke’s 2019 team with Zion, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. While it is true the FR classes have not had the success in the 2020’s that we saw the decade before with Kentucky and Duke, it has been a while since a guy as sure fire as Flagg has come along and had the firepower around him to really make some noise in college. The experienced guys like Proctor, Foster and James are going to be critical in the backcourt, and adding Maliq Brown to pair with Flagg inside might be the most critical move. They are going to be super versatile defensively, which is something that should be discussed as Scheyer has been very effective with these young Duke teams at getting them to be solid on defense. It wasn’t always easy for Coach K and these FR/SO led Duke teams on defense and Scheyer has had them 16th overall on that end each of his first two seasons. Now he has athletic forwards that can guard 1-5 in Brown/Flagg/Gillis but also a 7’2″ shot blocker, plus they’ve added a guy in Sion James that has been a menace on the perimeter as a defender. I think they could be top-10 defensively so long as they rebound effectively in this small lineup they appear to be rolling with, but the versatility to switch and get out and pressure is going to be key. I understand the hesitation after years of seeing veteran led teams dominate, especially in March, but let’s not forget just how much generational talents can make a difference, and Flagg is certainly that. He also comes into a situation with a ton of help around him, shooters galore, depth at every position and frankly a Conference that isn’t going to push them too much. I think they win the ACC rather easily and end up with a 1 seed in the tourney. With that I fully expect them to be a Final 4/Natty contender, and while that may sound ludicrous I have a feeling it won’t after Nov 12th when Duke dog walks Kentucky on national TV and the world finds out how good Flagg and the rest of this group will be.

2.) UNC (#9)

State of the Program:

The Hubert Davis experience at UNC has been up and down and all around as they’ve had a myriad of finishes over 3 years, from being an 8 seed and going to the national title game, to missing the tourney the next year, to bouncing back to be a 1 seed just to lose in the Sweet 16 so they’ve just about covered it all. The facts are that he’s been to a Final 4 and won an ACC regular season title in 3 seasons though so while it hasn’t always been pretty the hardware is there, with just a national title left before it becomes just about stacking. To help him accomplish that leading scorer and one of the best guards in the country is back in RJ Davis to lead the show, with a mix of returning role players, Freshmen and transfers in to fill the voids around him. Ian Jackson is probably the best bet to be a high volume scorer outside of Davis as he is a true 3 level scorer with incredible athleticism and the ability to breakdown the defense off the bounce to create for himself or others. Gives you some Donovan Mitchell vibes with his athleticism and bounce at the rim while also being able to beat you with his jumper, I think he’s going to be pretty damn good. Drake Powell is the other FR likely to have an impact, but his size, length and skillset is more of a Demar Derozan as he’s at his best attacking the rim as a slasher but also can hit midrange pullups and may develop a jumper from 3 down the line. He should give UNC the grit and grime type of plays they got out of Ingram last year and certainly have some highlight reel dunks along the way. The other Ingram replacement candidate is transfer Cade Tyson, who is not quite the athlete Powell is but is an extremely dangerous weapon on offense, shooting 46% from 3 last year and rebounding well he should be a big time contributor as well. Cadeau is back after starting last year and Trimble is back as well in the backcourt, so with Davis, Jackson and Powell that is a very talented and versatile backcourt. The bigs are more of the concern, as the production of Ingram and Bacot is a gigantic hole to fill and with only guys like Jalen Washington and Jae’lyn Withers back and transfer Ven-Allen Lubin and Claude not being overly impressive that figures to be the weakness. Tyson and Powell’s versatility could allow them to play small but I would worry about them on the glass at that point, especially with small guards like Davis and Cadeau not contributing much on the glass.

Prediction:

I think UNC has big time upside but there’s some concern here as well. They are going to be able to score the ball, likely wanting to run even more than they have in the past with all of these athletes. They aren’t going to have a guy like Bacot to play through in the halfcourt and that’s just a fact, so there’s going to be more pressure on guys like Cadeau, Trimble and incomer Jackson to create in the halfcourt for others off the bounce. They are all capable, so I don’t really doubt their ability to get good shots, it’s just going to look a little different than it has under Davis so far. They had their best season of his tenure on defense last year, mostly due to their ability to dominate the boards and block shots. They were pretty awful when it came to forcing turnovers but they limited second chances and had a top-25 2 point defense rank. The issue is that was heavily reliant on Bacot and Ingram, so guys like Washington, Withers and Lubin are going to have a ton of pressure on them to make up for that production on the glass and as rim protectors. We know who Davis is going to be, the question really comes down to the frontcourt guys stepping up as I just outlined and the FR + Cade Tyson being difference makers. Cadeau and Trimble have the talent to take a step forward as well, but Jackson and Tyson could both be double digit scorers and frankly they may only need one of them to step up to be the Robin to Davis’ Batman. It’s hard to doubt a team with a guy like Davis leading the way but they do feel like less of a sure thing than Duke does. Jackson/Tyson to me are the wildcards as it is just going to be imperative for them to have a guy other than Davis that can get his own. If defenses are able to key in on Davis and limit them offensively then they may struggle. Ultimately I think the talent here is just too deep for them not to figure it out, and Hubert seems to have his feet under him and moving this thing the way it should be, but we have seen them flop under him before so it’s not out of the question. Still, they seem the clear #2 and the best shot of anyone to knock off Duke.

3.) Wake Forest (NR)

State of the Program:

Steve Forbes is doing everything he can to bring Wake Forest back to relevancy, and while he hasn’t been able to crack through to the NCAA tourney yet they were right square in the mix until a meltdown late last year (losses to ND and GA Tech burst their bubble). He gets back two of his leading scorers and starting center from last year and is slowly amassing a long list of former 4-star recruits. You’ll remember last year he brought in Reid and Sallis from Gonzaga who were highly touted recruits and this season he has added 4 more disaffected guys off their FR campaign who are looking for more opportunities to play. That group is led by 5-star wing Omaha Biliew who spent last season playing behind a deep and uber talented Iowa St front court. He’ll come right in and look to start next to Reid who was the 27th ranked recruit in his class, which alongside Beliew as the 10th ranked in his quietly gives them a powerful 1-2 on paper inside. Now, he’ll compete with transfer Tre’Von Spillers who is the lone veteran transferring in who surely will have a role and with his experience and toughness on the glass he may win the starting job. Joining Sallis and Hildreth in the backcourt figures to be a rotation of guys, with returning guard Friedrichsen, a top-100 recruit last year, the most likely after posting good shooting numbers last year and having the raport with those guys already. Davin Cosby is also here from Bama, again a 4-star recruit coming off a limited FR campaign behind a deep group last year, he’ll compete for time next to those guys as well. The last guy is the likely backup point guard in Ty-Laur Johnson, who was wildly inefficient in his FR year at L’Ville but again was a top-100 recruit with a ton of upside and was frankly in a horrific situation last year at Louisville as they were worse than bad. The last potential factor is the FR Juke Harris, who at 6’6″ has potential to be a double digit scorer one day in college as he has a nice looking jumper and the athleticism to be able to create offense in the half court. That’s a deep group, albeit one riddled with question marks and resting on potential over proven production.

Prediction:

If you scoffed at seeing Wake Forest 3rd frankly I don’t blame you, but when you start looking in depth at these rosters after the first 2 honestly your guess is as good as mine. There’s a steep dropoff in talent from UNC/Duke to the rest of the Conference. I could go through and probably make a legitimate argument for 10 teams that could finish 3rd in the Conference. So, why did I land on Wake Forest? Well I like the trio of returning guys with Sallis/Hildreth/Reid giving them 3 starters back from a team that just missed the tourney last year. I would very quickly rank the ACC 5th/5 when it comes to returning talent, as there are just a ton of rebuilds happening and at least with Wake I get members of a core that was somewhat successful last year. Yes, that’s where we’re at already at 3rd place. I also get potential out the wazoo, with a 5-star SO coming to town in Biliew who never really got to shine because of the talent on Iowa St last year, and guys like Cosby and Johnson are also upside plays as they were 4-star recruits themselves. They don’t all have to hit, as there really is depth here, with a veteran like Spillers being a perfect fit at the 4 or a small ball 5, and the guards off the bench are better. Frankly Sallis and Hildreth were basically playing every minute last year so they can do that again and those guys might not even matter. Defense was and probably will continue to be their issue, as even when they won they needed to score 80+ nearly every win last year, but with added depth maybe that improves? Do I conceivably see only 2 teams from the ACC getting into the NCAA tourney? No, so if I’m going to try and find a team that can breakout and have the potential to beat up on the bottom half of this Conference I’m betting on the Demon Deacons. Am I confident? Hell no. That’s the prediction game though folks.

4.) Clemson (NR)

State of the Program:

Clemson had it’s best finish in the tournament in decades last season, reaching the Elite 8 and finishing 5th in the ACC for what was probably their best year under Brownell. He has taken Clemson to the tourney 4 times in 14 seasons, not especially great, and each of the previous seasons following a trip to the dance they have failed to get back a 2nd straight year. So, this year they’ll try for another first under Brownell and will have to do so after losing 3 starters of which 2 were their leading scorers. Getting back Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin is a strong foundation on which to start to reload around though, so there is still some hope here. Chauncey Wiggins and Dillon Hunter were contributors off the bench as well so that helps build some cohesion here as well. The transfers are going to be the x-factors though, with a guy like Viktor Lahkin being front and center. It’s hard to tell exactly how the frontcourt will shape up (just try googling Clemson basketball, every news story is Dabo and football related) but for sure Lahkin will have a role even if he doesn’t start at the 5 next to Shieffelin. The other candidate there would be for them to go small with Foster, but given Lahkin played in the Big 12 last year and produced I would think he wins that job. I would expect the backcourt to be older Hunter and then the transfers Zackery and Heidbreder, who shot 39 and 40% respectively from 3 averaging double figure scoring. They’re not quite PJ Hall and Girard levels of scoring but having knock down shooters is going to be hugely important. The last guy worth mentioning is FR Dallas Thomas, who at 6’8″ has great length and can be a knock down shooter. His athleticism and shooting combined could give him time at the 3 or 4, depending on how he defends he could be a factor.

Prediction:

While Brownell hasn’t been overly successful on a national scale he really is a solid coach in what is a very difficult job given the attention the football program draws. They say a rising tide lifts all boats and we’re kind of seeing that in the SEC, but it hasn’t quite bled over for Clemson. He does a great job of maximizing what he can from usually undermanned rosters on paper, and that’s why I have them where I have them. The talent is not quite as strong as last year but I do think they have the potential to tighten the screws defensively to make up for the losses scoring wise. Brownell has had very talented teams on that end of the floor before, and may have just had a physical limitation with how much pressure they could apply. They were just 340th in TO’s forced, so adding a guy like Zackery to replace Girard is going to help them in that area as he’s much more athletic and has a good history of getting steals. Offensively it could be a struggle, as they don’t have a standout bucket getter in terms of breaking the defense down and creating their own offense. Schieiffelin is probably going to get more touches in the post, and to his credit he was effective in that spot last year at nearly 59% from 2 and he’s a menace on the glass. They have really good shooters, the question will be can they manufacture good looks from outside in the halfcourt. If they can consistently get good looks and improve a little on defense they very easily could beat up on the bottom 2/3’s of this conference and be in good position to finally get Brownell to back-to-back tourney’s. They don’t have the ultimate ceiling in my opinion that last year’s team had (I had them pre-season top-20) but with Brownell at the helm and the talent on the roster I think they’ll be right here in the 3rd-5th range at the end of the season with a shot at dancing again.

5.) Miami (NR)

State of the Program:

From the highest of highs to the lowest of lows last year for this Miami program. Coming off of a Final 4 run they brought back a huge core of that team looking to have another strong year. They were sitting at 15-7 after a Feb 3rd victory over over VA Tech when shit hit the fan, as they lost 3 tough games in a row @ UVA, vs UNC and @ Clemson. Nigel Pack got hurt in the 3rd loss, and that stretch on top of that injury sent them into a tailspin that took that 3 game skid and turned it into 10 straight losses to end the season on a sour note. Much of last year’s team has now transferred out, with just Pack and Matthew Cleveland back to try and get this train back on the tracks for Larranaga. Jalen Blackmon was one of the premier scorers at the mid-major level and should immediately join Pack in the backcourt, replacing Poplar. Next to them in all likelihood will be 5-star FR Jalil Bethea, who is as good as it gets as a scorer in this class. Whether it’s off the catch, the dribble or with acrobatics at the rim, he puts the ball in the hoop, simple as that. A lineup of Pack, Blackmon, Bethea and Cleveland has the potential to be scary good offensively as all 4 guys can fill it up. The 5 spot is a bit of a mystery though, as they have 3 options in Brandon Johnson, Lynn Kidd and Kiree Huie. Johnson was a monster on the boards and can step out and hit 3’s allowing them to play 5 out and he could play the 4 as well, but he’s a bit undersized and not much of a rim protector. Kidd is longer and much more of a threat inside and as a roll man in ball screen actions and I’d expect Huie to just serve as a backup. That gives them some versatility at the very least. Off the bench in the back court a guy like Staton-McCray gives them a good outside shooter and the FR Swartz has a ton of potential as well. He’s not overly athletic but has great feel as a distributor and has a good looking jumper as well. That’s a solid group of 9 to work with, and while the last few years have been up and down on paper they look very talented once again.

Prediction:

What Miami should do and what they will do have not always aligned under Larranaga, but we have seen him adapt over the years. Back in his early days his teams would take the air out of the ball and play you in the halfcourt. The last few years, after 3 consecutive bad seasons, he’s opened things up and gone out and gotten the athletes to be able to get up and a down a little bit and it has resulted in a couple really good offensive seasons that took them to the Elite 8 and Final 4 in consecutive seasons. We’ll chalk last year up to losing your best player to injury and throw it out and just expect more of the same in terms of them playing fast and being a top-10 offensive team again. What has held them back in the regular season has been defense, or lack thereof. They have been 99th or worse each of the last 6 seasons. More often than not that did not go well for them, but they also were exceptions to my rule that you can’t win in March playing bad defense, so for whatever it’s worth they’ve at least had success in spite of the poor play on D. I expect more of the same, as this starting lineup has a chance to be one of the toughest to defend in the entire country. Pack, Blackmon, Bethea and Cleveland can all put up double figures on a nightly basis, and they may need them to if they continue to defend like a wet paper bag. That recipe has gotten them in the tourney and allowed them to go on runs though I’m not going to deny that, so if Larranaga can get these pieces to come together and play a fast paced high scoring style then they’re going to be a factor in this Conference and have a shot at getting back to the dance. As with last year though it has a chance to go off the rails, and as glamorous and fun as Miami can be we’ve seen it can get ugly fast. I expect some bumps in the road but ultimately seeing Miami as a 7-10 seed with all this scoring punch would not surprise me.

6.) Notre Dame (NR)

State of the Program:

On the surface it may look like Micah Shrewsberry had a tough year 1 at Notre Dame, but I actually don’t think it was all things considered. He had to essentially rebuild the entire roster and chose to do so, smartly in my opinion, via FR and young transfers. That resulted in him playing almost entirely FR and SO’s that took a while to get things going. After a loss to Duke they set just 2-10 in ACC play and just 7-16 overall, but they finished the season 6-4 including wins over Clemson and Wake Forest. Thanks to his building with youth and getting them to buy in (hard to do when you go 13-20) he has almost that entire group back with just a few holes to fill. He was a longtime assistant under Matt Painter and you can see that influence as he’s attempting to build the roster sustainably, with an emphasis on developing talent and not looking for that quick fix in the transfer portal. Not that he avoided that entirely though, and the few additions look key as they, among other struggles, really struggled shooting the ball last year and adding Allocco to the backcourt as a 43% shooter from 3 is huge. Burton and Shrewsberry are back to join him in the backcourt and with some improved efficiency that backcourt should take a major step forward. Booth and Zona left for greener pastures so Tae Davis and Njie will have more opportunity, but the transfers should contribute as well. Nikita Konstantynovskyi (pronounce that right challenge) and Chebuhar should have a role, but by no means is the front court going to be a strength offensively. Roper, Imes and Konieczny are back to contribute off the bench but the FR are going to have something to say about their roles. Sir Mohammed (son of Nazr) comes in as an athletic wing with a very similar profile as his dad as he projects as a 3 and D wing with plus athleticism, although not going to jump off the page in that respect. I could easily see him playing the 3 off the bench, especially if he buys in defensively as his added length would help them on that end. The other is Cole Certa who is your stereotypical stand still marksman that you’d imagine seeing on Purdue/Wisconsin/Virginia (think Kyle Guy) who’s shooting ability could be the sole reason he gets on the floor.

Prediction:

Before you call me crazy for having the Irish at 6, at least agree with me that the middle of the ACC is a complete crapshoot, with wild amounts of turnover and mediocrity. I genuinely believe Shrews is building something here, and that run at the end of the season has me bought in, along with his young team. They finished 39th defensively last year, a number I expect to be even better this year as these guys get better and better on that end. The thing about team defense, especially for young guys is communicating, knowing where to be and when to be there, and most of all having faith in your teammates to do their job consistently, which all takes time to develop. Based on the past of Shrews and his influences you can count on getting a disciplined team defensively and that was proven last year. The other end of the floor is where the major step forward has to occur if this prediction is going to come true. I think they have more offensive weapons than they did a year ago, with guys like Allocco and Certa being knockdown shooters and having athletic forwards like Mohammed/Davis/Njie they should be able to offensive rebound well as well. I am not trying to say this team is going to be a top-25 team, or even a tourney team, but no doubt in my mind they can be somewhere around the 50th range and that, unfortunately for the ACC, is probably going to be good enough to be around this spot. None of that is even mentioning they had a kid in Markus Burton come in and average 17 ppg as a true FR. If he takes a step forward, which may not be in overall production but in efficiency, then yes I think in year 2 under Shrewsberry Notre Dame could make some noise. Call me crazy, I say you lack vision. Coaching matters, cohesion matters and most of all getting young guys to come back to a team that went 13-20 in this day and age matters. Give me Notre Dame and the over on whatever their win total is. I’ll even sprinkle a little on them to make the tourney cuz I’m a madman…

7.) N.C. State (NR)

State of the Program:

Last year was a wild ride for the Wolfpack, as they finished the regular season 2-7 and were forced to have to win the ACC tourney to get in the dance, and that’s exactly what they did. They then parlayed that momentum into an improbable Final 4 run in what was the best season by far under Keatts thanks to that late season run. They get 3 regular contributors from last year’s team but the top 3 scorers are gone in Horne, Burns and Morsell so there’s a bunch to replace production wise. To Keatts’ credit he went to the transfer portal and got some more horses to try and keep the momentum going in this program. The best of those is Marcus Hill who averaged over 20 ppg and should pair up with Jayden Taylor at the guard spots with O’Connell running the point. Inside Brandon Huntley-Hatfield is the sure fire 5 man as he was a regular double digit scorer last year at Louisville, and while they were awful he is still clearly the best option to replace Burns inside. At the 4 they will have options, but Ben Middlebrooks certainly will be rotating at both the 4 and 5, but they can also go small with guys like Donztrez Styles and Dennis Parker who are 6’6″ and could fit in there with their size. Throw Mike James and Canadian transfer Ismael Diouf in there along with the FR Paul McNeil and the depth jumps off the page in the backcourt. McNeil is a lanky wing that is a good shooter as well so he has a bright future ahead even if we don’t see him a ton this year. The frontcourt leaves a little to be desired and that is likely the weakness that keeps them from truly contending in this conference.

Prediction:

The run to the Final 4 last year was fun, so fun, but the reality of the situation is they were just 17-14 overall prior to the ACC tourney and overall just an average team. Credit where credit is due, but similar to the Frank Martin’s S. Carolina run, which saw them miss the tourney the next 5 seasons, I think this could be a fall back to earth year. There is some talent here though no doubt, but it’s hard to recreate the magic of last season with Burns, Horne and Morsell being so integral to their success. I certainly don’t think they’re going to be bad, I have them 7th out of 18 in this conference that looks real bad at the bottom. The switch that seemingly flipped last year was they started defending at a much higher level, after giving up 87, 90, 79, 79 and 81 in their 5 losses to end the regular season they started clamping down once the ACC tourney got going. They held 7 of their final 10 opponents to less than 1 point per possession down the stretch, something they hadn’t done prior since a matchup with Virginia in January (who rarely scored more than 1 ppp regardless). So the question is, did Keatts unlock something for this program defensively? Prior to last year they averaged 110th defensively under him, so I’m going to just predict, with the roster turnover, that we see a regression back to that style of play. They’re going to be able to score with the best of them, but likely drop games that they shouldn’t because they don’t defend well enough. Especially when they’re incredibly thin upfront, with really only Huntley-Hatfield and Middlebrooks as true big men. I don’t see NC State as a tournament team, of course I didn’t last year and they weren’t until all of a sudden they were unbeatable in March, so who knows.

8.) Syracuse (NR)

State of the Program:

The Red Autry era at Syracuse got underway in about as average a way as you could imagine, as they won a lot of games against the weaker teams they played and lost 12 games, 8 of which were to tourney teams. Good enough to beat teams they should, most of the time, but not good enough to consistently beat the top-30 or so teams. They were 83rd in offensive efficiency and 85th defensively, pretty average to below average statistically. Autry now has to reload as much of the roster has exited the program, with just Starling and Bell back as starters from a year ago. They are not going to be super deep this year but at the top they are going to have some real talent. Joining Starling is Jaquan Carlos who can be a distributor at the point and Lucas Taylor will surely be an impact player as a scorer as well. Jyare Davis and Eddie Lampkin are also incoming and looking to start at the 4 and 5, although FR Donnie Freeman certainly will have something to say about that. He is a lanky wing that can hit a stand still 3 but is more comfortable operating in the mid-range and the mid-post. He is a versatile athlete so he easily could play the 4 for Autry as he can block shots and get out and run. McLeod should backup Lampkin, and Cuffe/Westry are depth pieces at the guard spots that round out a pretty decent looking lineup all things considered.

Prediction:

We got a good look last year at how Autry wants to run his teams last year, upping the tempo to 39th in the nation and despite a mid defensive rating they ramped up the perimeter pressure to be top-40 in turnovers forced %. They were really, really bad on the defensive glass (308th) and when they didn’t turn you over they were really bad at forcing misses with an effective FG% allowed at 299th. So, we essentially have all the show without the substance in my opinion when it comes to defense. Oh nice you got out in the passing lane 3 times and got 3 steals, but you attempted and failed 15 other times that resulted in 30 points, not a great trade off. Personally, I do like teams that extend their pressure and force turnovers, but you have to have the presence on the backend to alter shots, as well as the connectivity as a defense to rotate if a guy gets beat. They had neither of those things, and to top it off couldn’t get a rebound. Those are basic things though that can certainly improve, especially given all the new guys coming in that may have a little better awareness and intensity on defense. Lampkin inside is not a shot blocker, at all, as he’s not the best athlete, but he is a good rebounder and should help them in that area. They’ll hope that FR Freeman can help with the shot blocking, but overall the frontcourt may just not have the force that it takes to be a high pressure team. We’ll see if Autry adjusts that style, but at the very least with the scorers they have and the pace they play we know they’ll be fun. I expect them to be similar to last year, good enough to beat the bottom half of this conference consistently but just not strong enough to contend with the top and probably missing out on the tourney yet again.

9.) Louisville (NR)

State of the Program:

Out with the old in with the new, that’s the story here for the 2025 Louisville Cardinals as the coaching staff is gone and the entire roster is gone from last year. The last few years have been a dreadful experience all around for a once great program, and they have the resources to quickly resurrect that status if they made the right hire. Pat Kelsey is their guy, he took Winthrop to multiple tourney’s and most recently took Charleston to back-to-back tourney’s so he’s proven he can build a good team and win at the mid-major level. This is a whole different challenge though, with some bigger advantages having the brand and money that Louisville has but also having the expectations that come with a big program like this. What excites me about this rebuild is what he’s done via the transfer portal in year 1 (must be fun to have some money to throw around). He’s brought in Power Conference starters like Chucky Hepburn, J’Vonne Hadley and Noah Waterman to pair with mid-major standouts like Terrance Edwards Jr and Kasean Pryor just to name a few. He has come out swinging in terms of talent accumulation, clearly not trying to slowly build for the future, proven by his bringing in of just 1 FR. I’m not going to sit here and go through each and every transfer guy by guy, but you can see for yourself they all bring proven production to a program that can essentially only go up from the last 2 seasons that saw them go 5-35 in the ACC under Kenny Payne. There are quite a few rebuilds going on around the country like this, but I think Louisville is sneakily one of the stronger ones entering the season, on paper.

Prediction:

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I think Louisville is going to win the ACC in year 1 under Kelsey but this thing should look wildly different. He brought in a ton of talent but more importantly is the style he brings and what that talent will help them do. He has always had his teams play fast paced and hoist a lot of 3’s. This results in a free and open play style that guys love to play under (hence why these guys came to play for him) and it should allow them to be one of the better offensive teams in the Conference a la Miami. He brought a couple of his guys over from Charleston in Smith and Rogers who were knock down shooters, but he also has guys like Waterman (37%) as a big, Koren Johnson (37%) and Hadley (42%) who are all knockdown from outside as well. Guys like Hepburn, Edwards and Pryor aren’t as consistent but they’re capable as well, so I fully expect that same style of play and I think he wisely brought in guys to fit his style. It’s amazing what coaches can do in this day and age with open free agency essentially, but to see Louisville having a real chance to make some noise after the last two years has to be such a great feeling for Cardinal fans. Now, we also have to keep in mind that many of these rebuilds over the past couple of seasons have flamed out after bringing in large groups of transfers, but it’s also a small sample size as this ability to bring guys in like this is very new. It has proven very difficult to get to the tourney in year 1 of a rebuild like this, but when you only won 5 Conference games in 2 years even just getting in the mix in the middle of the pack is a giant step forward. That’s what I expect, but don’t get it twisted if everything comes together they have tourney potential, it’s just a steep mountain to climb to get it all to go perfectly.

10.) Pitt (NR)

State of the Program:

Jeff Capel is trying to get this train back on the tracks but after 7 seasons at the helm they have just 1 tourney bid as an 11 seed to show for. The good news is there has been positive momentum the last 2 seasons, 1 of them being that tourney appearance and last season a somewhat surprising 12-8 season in the ACC. That’s back-to-back above .500 conference seasons for the first time since Jamie Dixon left the program almost a decade ago now. The bad news is the two leading scorers from last year are gone with no obvious replacements incoming. The guard duo of Leggett and Lowe had very solid seasons last year, so there is at least some consistency there and some reliable production. They brought in Damian Dunn who didn’t have a huge season with Houston last year but was 2x All-Conference in the American at Temple prior so he will help as well and possibly start at the 3. The other guy to watch as a potential option at the 3 is European transfer Amsal Delalic who is a lethal spot up shooter. He has good size but athletically isn’t that special, but with a game similar to Bogdanovic he surely can carve out a role if he’s shooting 40%+ from 3 and could even play a small ball 4. The front court is much more muddy, as Capel has brought in a ton of competition for the returning Diaz-Graham brothers and Zack Austin is back after starting 31 games last year. Transfer Cam Corhen had an up and down SO year last year, actually peaking in a game against Pitt as he had 25 and 8 and apparently got Capel’s attention enough for him to bring him in. How he fits in will be interesting but he certainly will have a role. That’s a group of 8 right there, and Capel could cut it off there and play a short bench, as his only options are either true or redshirt FR, so if it goes deeper it will be young.

Prediction:

My thoughts on this Pitt roster are pretty simply that they’re average, with no true elite scoring option like they had last year with Hinson or Carrington. Leggett was good but was the definition of a microwave, being able to go off for 25+ on occasion but just as often scoring in single digits. He has been an inefficient scorer throughout his career but he’s their best option outside of Lowe, who is their primary playmaker. Dunn has a very similar history, with a career 38% shooting percentage overall, and just 31% from 3. I worry, therefore, about their overall efficiency from 2, as they don’t have a true post presence and outside shooting will likely be a weakness. Delalic could help out in the shooting department, and maybe Corhen can help scoring inside, but those two are highly variable. They haven’t been very good defensively under Capel either, but last year was their best at 48th, so maybe there’s continued improvement on that end to offset the drop in offensive firepower. I don’t have a ton of faith there, but it’s possible. Overall I expect them to just be average, good enough to beat the lesser teams but not good enough to beat the top-half. That should result in somewhere around a .500 conference record which will not be good enough to be a tourney team in this year’s ACC.

11.) Virginia (NR)

State of the Program:

Well just recently this one took an unexpected turn with the retiring of longtime HC Tony Bennett. It’s hard to imagine there isn’t at least some bad vibes in that locker room, as the whole world seemed pretty shocked he retired, so I would imagine those players were as well. The one thing I wonder is if he had turned the team over to new HC Ron Sanchez in essence prior to retiring, giving him more responsibility/control of practices and recruiting. I would be surprised if he just abruptly walked away with no warning signs, as there would seemingly be some sort of blowback in that case from the roster. Truth be told I had them higher than this prior out of respect to Bennett and his coaching ability, but honestly the roster is not great and now with all of this turmoil just weeks before the season it’s hard to imagine success for Sanchez right away. They have a core of 6 returning guys from last year’s team, but just 1 of them was a major offensive contributor, and that was a team that ranked 200th in offensive efficiency. McNeely being back is the best weapon offensively, but the backcourt is most likely going to be ran by transfer Dai Dai Ames who was a top-75 recruit last year and had a limited role with K-State. Guys like Rohde, Murray and Gertrude all played sparingly last year, but the two certainties seem to be McNeely and Ames. Inside it’s once again a lot of inexperience but potential, with Buchanan back after a solid FR season as the backup 5 man ready to step up and Duke transfer TJ Power coming in looking for more playing time. Saunders gives them more depth, but ultimately nobody on this roster has been a major contributor at this level other than McNeely.

Prediction:

I truly think this has a chance to go really poorly, but with Sanchez at least being the Associate HC last season and through this offseason you’d hope Bennett at least set it up to be somewhat of a smooth transition. Still, there has to be a feeling from the guys, especially the transfers and FR that they were duped in a sense with Bennett recruiting them to play for him only to step down like that (Warley has since left the program). Either way, they have no choice now but to put themselves on display even if they plan to transfer out after the season. Given the culture and that Sanchez was a longtime assistant prior to leaving to be the HC of Charlotte, where he didn’t have much success in 5 seasons, I still expect it not to be a total disaster. What you lose faith in is Bennett had an ability to elevate teams well above their on paper talent, will Sanchez be able to replicate that? Will he still play the same style of Virginia basketball we’ve all come to know and loathe? It is hard to predict, but one thing is for sure, the talent level on the roster is not to the standard we were used to seeing from past Virginia teams. The likes of De’Andre Hunter, Kyle Guy, Malcolm Brogdon and Ty Jerome are nowhere to be found right now. This is a bottom of the barrel roster, with only the history of being elite defensively giving them any hope at all. This may be their ceiling, but some part of me can’t shake the idea that they will find a way to win 8 conference games by holding teams to 50 or fewer points.

12.) Georgia Tech (NR)

State of the Program:

Damon Stoudamire actually had a pretty decent year 1 all things considered. They were a typical young team that played to the level of their competition, beating the likes of Duke/UNC/Clemson while also losing to UMass Lowell/Louisville/Florida St and Notre Dame x2. That is not all that surprising with a young team and 1st year head coach, but those experiences should have been used as learning opportunities and with a strong core back I expect better on that front. They have a really solid core back with Ndongo and George back after strong FR campaigns and Reeves back as a vet. Terry is back after missing last year to injury so the backcourt should be a strength. That will be bolstered by the addition of McCollum from Oklahoma who is a score first PG but was forced last year to hoist bad shots with the Sooners so he may see his efficiency go up in a better offensive situation. The last addition to that group is FR Jaeden Mustaf who is a skilled scorer that is built to come right in and contribute right away. He’s a solid all around scorer, with a good jumper and the quickness to beat defenders off the bounce and finish through contact at the rim. That group of 6 will battle for minutes at the 1-3 spots, with Reeves having the ability to slide to the 4 as well. Inside Ndongo should start again at the 5 after a very productive FR season, but the 4 spot is pretty wide open. It could be Reeves, but O’Brien from Colorado would give them more size and outside shooting. FR Darrion Sutton could also have something to say, as his lanky, wiry frame and athleticism give him a ton of potential as a slasher and versatile defender at the 4. Overall it’s still a young roster but getting older and Stoudamire kept his 2 best FR from last year which is a great sign of things to come.

Prediction:

Ultimately they lost quite a bit but did bring in some talent as well, so I think they could end up in the same boat as last year with 7 or 8 conference wins. Ideally they have a non-conference that doesn’t include bad losses and in that case could find themselves in the bubble mix early on. I don’t think they’ll have enough firepower, but the ceiling is definitely higher than 12th. They were pathetically bad at putting the ball in the basket last year (246th from 3 and 256th from 2). Getting Terry back and bringing in a guy like McCollum could help in that area, and it’ll have to as I don’t see defense transforming into a strength. I have some hope for Stoudamire as they showed some fight last year and given how young the roster was that was a great sign. They have to take a step forward and bring that fight every night, not just for the top teams, and if they can avoid those bad losses they may outperform this prediction and have an outside shot at going dancing.

13.) SMU (NR)

State of the Program:

Andy Enfield was let go from USC after really having just 1 major disappointing season. Last year’s USC team had high expectations and they fell flat, no excuses, but his history is much stronger than that lone season leads on. He took USC to the tourney the prior 3 seasons and overall made it 5 out of 10 chances. You’ll remember him best from his first stop as HC at FGCU leading them to the Sweet 16 in that incredibly entertaining run back in 2013 that landed him the USC job. I say all of this to say SMU has a really good HC for probably the first time since Larry Brown was there for a short period. Enfield turned USC around and while he never built them into a power they were competitive and tourney worthy more often than not. So, he comes to SMU with a lot to prove, and he has to completely rebuild this roster as all but 3 guys left the program. Chuck Harris is the biggest piece to return, and he alongside incoming transfer Kevin Miller give the Mustangs a very talented duo in the backcourt. That’s about the only sure thing on the roster, but that is not for a lack of options. At the wing spots there are guys like Matt Cross/AJ George/Ambrose–Hylton/Gorener who could all play a sort of interchangeable 3/4. At the 5 there’s multiple options as well, with Traore an experienced big and Turkish 7 footer Yigitoglu an intriguing prospect in his own right. That’s just to name a few really, as you can see for yourself there are multiple options at each spot 3-5 that can and will likely contribute. Of all the teams in the lower half, this is the roster with the talent to where I could see them surprising people and breaking into the top half.

Prediction:

I’m becoming more and more cautious with these rebuilds, as the new HC bringing in a stack of transfers that on paper are talented hasn’t had a huge hit rate. I do like Enfield as a HC, and his play style of getting out in transition and playing fast will at the very least be fun to watch, especially with the duo of Harris and Miller leading the way. They should be able to score the rock, the question is going to be inside with how they rebound and defend the paint. Not sure if the Turkish big will be ready, and they have only 2 guys on the roster who have averaged 5+ boards/game in their career. That figures to be a key weakness, so I do not have the highest of expectations in reality, but there’s at least some pop on paper that makes me think by ACC play Enfield could have a solid group of 8 or 9 that could keep them out of the cellar in year 1 in the ACC. Long term I expect this to be a good hire, but rebuilds like this take time, and he doesn’t have the resources he had at USC, so it’s a much more difficult chore than his last stop and he only won 5 games his first 2 years there. Ultimately, have some patience SMU fans, as this year may be tough but I do think Enfield can coach.

14.) Cal (NR)

State of the Program:

Cal is in a rough spot as a program but in year 1 Mark Madsen actually had the most success they’ve had in some time. Unfortunately that entire team transferred out or graduated, so Madsen is forced to rebuild for yet another season. That is the hard part about coaching these days, as you are able to go out and get transfers but often times they don’t stick around, or they’re out of eligibility. A guy like Shrewsberry has taken a different approach in bringing in younger guys and developing them and frankly I think that’s a better long term plan. Nevertheless Madsen has 10 transfers coming in with just 2 scholarship guys back. The good news is there’s some high major talent coming, with the frontcourt having guys like Sissoko and Ola-Joseph from the Big 10 and Stojakovic the likely 3 spot coming from Stanford. There’s depth up front as well with some mid-major standouts in Omot and Petraitis so that group figures to be a strength. The guard play is where you start to have question marks, as there’s really only 3 guys to play the 1-2 spots that have proven much of anything, but only at the mid-major level and not elite even there. You’ll probably see Campbell and Tucker start but either way you slice it that group in the backcourt is going to be a weakness in all likelihood.

Prediction:

There is some meat on this bone, but ultimately it’s hard to win consistently in college basketball with average or worse guard play and that’s what I expect here. Stojakovic and Petraitis will likely man the 3 spot, but honestly the way this is constructed you may even see them together at the 2-3 spots just due to their shooting ability. Now, I’m not sure that will be good for them defensively, as even with good length those guys are going to have a hard time keeping guards in front of them. At the end of the day this Cal team is going to have to rely on dominating in the paint, out-rebounding teams and hoping they can get enough from the PG spot to get them into some offense and take care of the ball. Defensively they were soft last year, but it’s a new roster so it’s hard to tell what that will look like with new guys. Honestly, it’s hard to tell at all what this team will look like, other than to know the frontcourt is made up of guys who have produced at other high major schools so if anything is a strength that should be it. I don’t expect Cal to make much noise, but I do think they have the talent to put together a team that avoids being in the cellar of this conference. Last year’s team winning 9 conference games also gives you confidence in Madsen as a HC to get the most out of a hodge podge roster as well, so while the turnover makes me expect a step back from 9 wins I still think 6-7 wins is likely.

15.) Florida St (NR)

State of the Program:

It has been quite a fall from grace for this Florida St program after Hamilton seemingly had them rolling just a few years back, getting to 4 straight tourney’s including 3 trips to the Sweet 16. They were producing pro’s like Devin Vassell, Patrick Williams and Scottie Barnes and developing talented college players out of 3 and 4 star prospects. This may be a case of failed adaptation to the new environment in college basketball, and while I don’t know that for sure it seems on the surface that Hamilton was far more effective in recruiting and developing younger players than he was at bringing in a load of transfers and bringing them together. This year has been more of a mix, with a crop of 5 FR, after just 1 a season ago, and 4 transfers to help fill some gaps with the mass exodus happening. Jamir Watkins is the lone double figure scorer back, but both Jackson and Bowen are young guys Hamilton recruited so I have hopes at his return to his roots in terms of developing talent, but as we look short term this roster is not exactly loaded with proven talent. He brought in 3 guys via transfer that shot it 39%+ from 3 last year in Holt, Deng and Thomas and also added sharpshooter from Greece Rozakeas. Those 4 guys are going to help improve on their 288th ranking in 3 point shooting a year ago. Inside will be a weakness and a departure from what we’re used to seeing, as Hamilton always had a cohort of big men that challenged Purdue for the tallest in the country year after year. For what feels like the first time there are no 7 footers on the roster, so they will be playing small in all likelihood with Watkins/Holt playing a lot of minutes at the 4.

Prediction:

I don’t see it going well for the Noles this year and I would imagine the seat for Hamilton is beginning to warm. I still think he’s a very good HC and developer of talent, I just think he has not adjusted well to this new environment and lost some of what made the program special. For whatever reason he hasn’t been hitting big with recruits, as he regularly brought in top-50 talent and supplemented with top-100 and 150 talent that he developed. That foundation is no longer here thanks to the portal, and without the top end talent I do not see them finding success with such a young and unproven roster. There have been down periods before with Hamilton at the helm here, so I certainly believe he can get them out of this slump and back competing with the top of the ACC, but it’s not going to happen this year. Hopefully he can hold on to the young talent on this roster and develop these guys, as that is when he’s at his best. Add another good class next year and maybe there will be some positive momentum as we head into 2025-26. As for this year, it likely is even a step back from last year after hemorrhaging much of the talent that was here.

16.) Stanford (NR)

State of the Program:

Another new HC and rebuild underway at the newly lamented PAC-12 program Stanford, where they have been missing from relevancy for 2 decades now. It feels like an eternity ago that Mike Montgomery roamed the sidelines, taking Stanford to a Final 4 and Elite 8 during a stretch of the late 90’s early 2000’s that saw them as a 1 seed on 3 separate occasions and a 4 seed or better 6 times. Since his departure after the 2004 season they have made the tourney just 3 times and 0 of those have occured in the last 10 years. It’s actually wild to me Jerod Haase lasted as long as he did, but finally after 8 miserable seasons we finally have a changing of the guard, in more ways than 1 of course as they enter the ACC. It figures to be a rough transition, but new HC Kyle Smith is fresh off the best season of his career after taking Wazzu to the tourney and getting them their first March Madness victory in 15 years. He knows a little something about a rebuild. He will start year 1 with admittedly an underwhelming roster, with just 4 transfers, only 2 of which have averaged double digit scoring in Okpara and Saran, who will join returning star Maxime Raynaud as the only proven high level producers on the roster. The 4 FR coming into the program are by no means elite recruits, but it is obvious Smith is not coming into this looking for a year 1 flash in the pan, he’s building for the future and trying to make this work long term, a la coach Shrewsberry at Notre Dame. Yes it’s more sexy to bring in 12 transfers who all think they’re going to start and try to get it rolling right off the bat, but as I’ve said over and over, these rebuilds are tough and sometimes just bringing in a crop of young guys you can hold on to and develop is the better long term solution.

Prediction:

I like that Smith is playing the long game, and it’s likely as much by force as his own preference, as Stanford isn’t exactly a brand that attracts talent. He is going to have to grind this one out, building with FR and hopefully landing a transfer or 2 that will stick around for more than 1 season. If he can establish some sort of culture and vision within the program that will start to attract talent, and from there this season can be a springboard. By no means do I see them competing at a high level, but similar to Notre Dame a season ago just watch how this young group competes for Smith, and more importantly when the offseason comes if they choose to stick it out. Buy in is the most critical part of these rebuilds having sustained success, so while the record may portray some negatives, look for those positives heading into next season. He’s done it before, but it took 5 seasons to break through with Wazzu, so be patient and with time we may see Stanford return to some sort of relevancy.

17.) Virginia Tech (NR)

State of the Program:

Mike Young has yet to really break through with Virginia Tech, even with 2 trips to the dance under his belt he’s 0-2 in those games and was just an 11 seed in each. They have mostly been the picture of average with him at the helm never going better than 11-9 in conference but also winning no fewer than 7 such games. This has to be the least talented roster he’s had though, with just 4 guys returning, only 1 of which had even a ancillary role on last year’s team. The 5 transfers have some promise, but frankly haven’t been world beaters at their previous stops. Hysier Miller is the clear starting PG and probably the best playmaker on the roster (yikes he has been kicked off the team, bad bad news for the Hokies), but outside of that it’s guys like Burnham and Lawal who were just role players at a mid-major school last year and then Duke/Cal transfers Schutt and Brown Jr who are inexperienced. The entire roster beyond Miller is essentially a giant question mark. The FR could have a major role just due to the lack of proven options, and a guy like Ryan Jones who is a stretch 4 that is physically read to come in a be a force. He should definitely have a role, but needing him to come in and start and be a major contributor might be asking too much. Young did get guys like Young and Rechsteiner to stick around for their SO year, so a big step forward from them will not only be critical but imperative.

Prediction:

I am going to acknowledge one thing and that is I almost always have VA Tech a notch lower in the pre-season predictions than they wind up when it’s all said and done. I did say he has always landed between the 7 and 11 win range in Conference. However, I truly look at this as his worst roster talent wise he has had during his time in Blacksburg, and while he has always gotten more out of his team than I expect it’s still hard to imagine this roster breaking out with so little proven production. Could he get this team to 7 or 8 ACC wins again? Maybe, and frankly that may be the best coaching job of his career if he does so. I expect major regression, and how could there not be, look all the talent that left this program. This ranking is not an indictment on Young as a coach, moreso on the lack of talent he was able to bring in after taking on so many losses. Big step back for the Hokies, but lots of young talent to build around for the future if he can hold on to them.

18.) Boston College (NR)

State of the Program:

Earl Grant does deserve some credit for at least getting Boston College to be pesky last year, as they finished 71st in Kenpom, their best ranking since 2011, leading to 8 conference wins and 2 more in the ACC tourney. Yes, that is a pretty big step forward, that’s where we are with this program. However, basically that entire team has left aside from a few of the young guys that played only a minor role, if any last year. The simple fact is this roster is extremely young outside of the mid-major transfers that Grant had to have to bring some semblance of potential to this roster. Brown and McFarlane are going to have to lead the show, but both were rather inefficient last year and now have to endure a major step up in competition. The freshman class, paired with last year’s class, make up 7 of the roster spots, so there is undoubtedly going to have to be some production from FR/SO’s who have not played meaningful college basketball to date. That’s where we stand, and despite the progress Grant made last year, the losses appear too great to have much confidence.

Prediction:

As you can likely guess my expectations are not high for this roster, but I’ll try and go easy as this was a very difficult job that Grant inherited. BC has been irrelevant since Al Skinner’s days roaming the sidelines in the 2000’s. It has been 15 years of ineptitude, and at the very least Grant has won at a level not seen since those days. Yes, it’s been that bad. Now, he really swung and missed this off-season, and losing all of those guys to transfer is tough for any program to get over, much less one with this level of losing over the majority of many of these players’ lives. The positive outlook is he has 7 underclassmen to build with, and they are going to get valuable experience this year. He already has 3 more commitments for next year’s class (all sub-100 ranked) but still, if he can develop these guys into solid players he may have something over the next couple of years. The fact is no matter how you slice it he’s at a talent disadvantage, and even the best coaches know it’s players who win games. Unfortunately for Grant it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Pre-Season Prediction

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1. ) Kansas (#2)

State of the Program:

Last year was a disappointing finish by Kansas standards, especially considering they entered the season AP pre-season #1. They finished tied for 5th in the Big 12 which is the worst they’ve finished under Self (pretty absurd) and got blown out by Gonzaga in the 2nd round of the tourney. They did play the final 3 games and several throughout the year without McCullar which was a huge factor, but he’s gone for good now as is Johnny Furphy, so there’s production to be replaced as they try and live up to the lofty expectations that have been placed yet again. The reason for the optimism is the reinforcements are strong, with a guard duo in AJ Storr and Zeke Mayo that gives them more than enough to replace and even improve upon those lost. They also brought in Rylan Griffen from Alabama who brings his sharpshooting ability to a team that struggled to knock down shots a year ago (195th 3pt %). That trio of guards next to returning PG Dajuan Harris Jr gives them a strong group of 4 guys that give them far more shot making ability than they had a year ago. They also have a deep group of backups that will be fighting for time behind them in Shakeel Moore, Noah Shelby, David Coit, Elmarko Jackson and Jamari McDowell. Bill Self is not messing around, with far more talent than can see the court he’s sending a clear message last year the backcourt wasn’t good enough. Inside it’s a familiar duo with both Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams Jr back, and behind them is Zach Clemence fresh off a redshirt and exciting FR Flory Bidunga. Bidunga is an athletic rim protector that finishes strong and plays above the rim. He doesn’t have a diverse offensive skillset by any means, but should be strong as a shot blocker and rebounder out of the gates in a role behind Dickinson. Overall the talent here is obviously quite a bit deeper than a year ago, with more guys who can get their own shots as well as knock down open looks generated by others, so the repeat as AP #1 pre-season checks out on paper.

Prediction:

It’s pretty obvious based on the roster and the improvements they’ve made on paper that things should go well this year for Bill Self and the Jayhawks. They still have Dickinson to play through and the uber talented Adams as well to form a strong and experienced frontcourt. The backcourt is obviously the difference maker though, with Storr and Mayo the x-factors as they were high level scorers last year and if they can come in and be dependable scorers that will allow Harris to play his natural role as a distributor. They were honestly pretty mid in most categories last year, but one thing that stuck out to me was the possession battle, and not necessarily losing it but not impacting it positively. What I mean is they did well to limit offensive rebounds and didn’t turn it over a ton, although it could and should be better, but they were pretty bad at getting their own offensive rebounds (286th) and forcing turnovers (207th). I would imagine both of those are going to be points of emphasis, and frankly with a duo like Dickinson and Adams there’s no reason they can’t get more offensive boards. We’ll see if the new guards will be able to ramp up the pressure a little better, but they were still top-20 defensively despite not turning teams over, mostly due to the shot blockers/alterers inside and strong rebounding. We’re splitting hairs though trying to find weaknesses, as the biggest one was outside shooting and they added 3 certified buckets in the transfer portal in Storr, Mayo and Griffen to handle that. I expect that to be the difference as Kansas should fulfill what most have as their ceiling, winning the Big 12 again and being a factor for a National title. It’s certainly not guaranteed, but with Self at the helm and this much talent on the roster you’d be a fool not to at least expect them to be in contention on the national scale.

2.) Iowa St (#5)

State of the Program:

I would just like to remind everyone where this Iowa St program was when TJ Otzelberger took it over in 2022. They went just 2-22 in 2021 including an 0-18 conference record, similar to DePaul last season. Is anyone expecting Chris Holtmann to go to DePaul and take them to the Sweet 16 in year 1 and get them to a 2nd place Conference finish and a 2nd Sweet 16 in year 3? I would highly doubt it, but that’s exactly what Otzelberger did with this program in arguably the toughest basketball conference in the country. He’s 3 for 3 in getting to the dance and has a 4-3 record in that tourney with a Big 12 tourney championship to his name as well. Now that we’re all appreciating what has been done here let’s get to business. The backcourt is largely back, with 4 double digit scorers all returning from a year ago including the starters at the 1-3 spots in Gilbert, Lipsey and Momcilovic. Curtis Jones is also back to play the 6th man role and transfer Nate Heise and FR Nojus Indrusaitis will look to find a role as well. Heise is a plus shooter and good rebounder for his size and the FR is a marksman from 3 that has a good defensive motor as well, a requirement to play for Otzelberger. All in all that group should enter the season with a ton of cohesion and be strong right out of the gate. The frontcourt has been rebuilt, and frankly it might be better than a year ago. The duo of Josh Jefferson and Dishon Jackson should be the starting 4-5 unless they want to go small. Jefferson is a physical stretch 4, and while his shooting numbers from 3 don’t look great he started just 2-26 from 3 last year and then went 50% over 17 games prior to his injury. He rebounds well, has good instincts as a defender and does not shy away from contact, exactly what Otzelberger wants. Jackson will be a better rim protector than Jefferson and excels on the glass as well. Behind them Chatfield profiles similar to Jackson, a top rebounder and physical presence, you could say Coach has a type. They will play Momcilovic at the 4 as well like last year so that trio rotating with him as well will be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Prediction:

The Cyclones are going to be exactly what we think they are, as Otzelberger quickly established an identity here. They’re going to make life miserable for you, force turnovers at an elite rate (2nd nationally) and bully you into mistakes. Part of that is shown in their tendency to foul a lot (241st) but also in their non-steal TO% (9th). Their relentless pressure forces teams to travel or throw the ball away or if you beat them they’re disciplined enough to take a charge. That’s the culture on defense and it’s been consistent year over year here since he took over (5th, 8th, 1st overall defensive efficiency). The improvements have been and continue to need to be made on the other end. They’ve progressed from 171st-114th-52nd over the years, but to get over the hump and get to a Final 4 it needs to continue to improve. Part of that improvement could come from FT’s, as they were just 264th in FT% and were anchored by departed bigs Robert Jones and Hason Ward who were about 55%. Jefferson and Jackson were both above 70%, so I would expect their numbers to rise as a team and that will no doubt help them score more on a possession by possession basis. The guard play should be similar if not better with some development from the returning core, so the possibility that they are well inside the top-50 is strong. Pairing that with another top-5 defensive season and you have the makings of an extremely difficult team to deal with. They don’t have the firepower or sexy name recognition of the other elite teams in the country, but make no mistake the Cylcones are going to be a nightmare, especially for the rest of the Big 12 heading to Hilton. They can win the league, and this could be the season Otzelberger gets them to their first final 4 in the modern era.

3.) Houston (#10)

State of the Program:

Houston under Kelvin Sampson is one of the premier programs in college basketball right now, having reached 5 straight Sweet 16’s, including an Elite 8 and Final 4 trip. They haven’t been able to break through for a national title, but to go from the American Conference to the Big 12 and win the thing in year 1 is very impressive. Plus, last year’s team would have had a real shot in my opinion if they didn’t lose Jamal Shead to injury in the first half of the Duke game, not to mention Tugler in early March, but I digress. They will have to find a way to win without Shead as he exits the program leaving a gaping hole in the backcourt. The good news is they are right up there with Purdue and Marquette when it comes to returning talent, as Sampson has these guys ready to die for Houston, they aren’t going anywhere. 4 starters are back, with Cryer and Sharp in the backcourt and Roberts, Francis and Tugler back in the frontcourt with Tugler the likely starter now that he’s healthy again. Obviously the biggest question is how do they replace Shead? The reinforcement brought in is Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan who should operate as the PG and at 6’4″ gives them good size at the position. The biggest key for me is his passing ability, particularly in ball screen situations as I think with these athletic forwards and Sharp and Cryer as catch and shoot options we’ll be seeing Uzan operate out of ball screens a ton. I think as a distributor he’s going to be a fine replacement for Shead, but the ancillary guys may need to step up their scoring volume a bit. They are also going to benefit from better depth, especially from guys like Tugler and Arceneaux being back from injury. By the NCAA tourney they were down to only Roberts and Francis inside, forced to play small if either went to the bench and the wing depth was beginning to deplete, especially when foul trouble occurred. They also welcome in FR Mercy Miller who is the next primary scoring guard at Houston, as he’s a true 3 level scorer with a smooth jumper and the size to excel at Houston. We’ll see how he develops as a defender, which could limit his time as a FR, but his offensive ability may allow him to jump some of the other guys on the roster. There’s a ton of depth and consistency here, so Houston should come out humming early.

Prediction:

We know who Houston is going to be defensively with a strong culture and group of leaders that should enable them to be one of, if not the best, defensive unit in the nation. The big question mark is how Uzan fits as the replacement to Shead, who was their best offensive weapon and also a menace defensively. The reason this is so important is guys like Cryer and Sharp are not effective creators offensively, and while they can at times get a shot for themselves, creating for others is not what they do. The only other guy who they could really play through last year was Roberts in the post, and we’ll probably see some of that this year as well, but it really is going to be on the shoulders of Uzan. That is why I dropped them to 3rd in this Conference and 10th nationally. It cannot be understated how much Shead meant to them on both ends, so I do see a slight step backwards offensively for Houston even with the addition of Uzan. They were 19th last season in offensive efficiency, and I could see them falling out of the top-25, although their propensity to dominate the offensive glass will help. It’s frankly all about Uzan, and I’ll be watching them early to see how he fits in and how he runs this offense. Maybe they choose to play through Roberts even more in the post too, we’ll see how that goes, especially given Tugler and Francis will be next to him with zero outside shooting ability. They’ve been top-10 defensively for 4 years straight, there’s zero question what we’ll get from them there, and they’ve been top-11 in offensive rebounding the last 5 years. The identity is clear, but will they have enough firepower in the halfcourt offensively to get past teams in the Sweet 16/Elite 8 that can challenge them? They’ll beat up on the bottom half of this conference, but a team like Kansas with all their firepower on offense and a scrappy defense or a team like Iowa St that can match their physicality are probably slightly better due to Houston’s challenges in the halfcourt offensively. I think Houston is going to be very good, top-10 good, but this is why I think they fall short of winning the Big 12, and yes I picked and successfully bet on them last year to win the league so there’s no anti-Houston bias here. Great team, great program, wouldn’t bet on them to win it all.

4.) Arizona (#12)

State of the Program:

The Tommy Lloyd experience has been an interesting one for Arizona, as they’ve been wildly successful in the regular season, resulting in a 1 or 2 seed each of his 3 seasons at the helm. However, it hasn’t translated to March success as they haven’t gotten past the Sweet 16 and lost once in the first round to a 15 seed. They have a clear identity though, playing fast and free offensively resulting in a top-11 offensive rank each of the 3 years as well. They’ve just had issues on defense and with matching teams physicality. This year they’ll have to replace 4 starters to keep the strong run of success going, and moving to the Big 12 only adds to the challenge. They do get leading scorer Caleb Love back though, along with promising backups from a year ago in Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis to join him in the backcourt. Those 3 along with transfer Anthony Dell’Orso will be the rotation at the 1-3 spots, and Dell’Orso is someone to be excited about. He is a perfect replacement for Pelle Larsson as he has essentially the same build and skillset, shooting it well from outside and having the athleticism to excel downhill. That’s a thin rotation but Lloyd usually only plays about 8 guys so those 4 should be perfect, with maybe reserve Conrad Martinez getting a few minutes as the 9th man. The group of 4 inside is going to be strong as well, with returning big man Krivas back after a promising FR season behind Ballo. He looks primed to be very productive at the 5, and at 7’2″ gives them the 5 man presence they’ve always had under Lloyd. At the 4 will likely be Oakland transfer Trey Townsend who many may remember from their upset of Kentucky, and man did I fall for him in that game as he can really do everything as a stretch 4. His competition for minutes there will likely be incoming FR Carter Bryant, who has similar profile as a stretch 4, but he is a bit lankier and more of shooter/slasher than Townsend who can operate out of the post as well. There is also Tennessee transfer Tobe Awaka, but I actually think he could play the 5 behind Krivas in a smaller lineup as he is extremely physical and rebounds extremely well. They don’t really have much experience behind him either, with just Veesar and the raw FR Stephan who likely needs time to develop. The backcourt is pretty set in stone but Lloyd has some options and versatility with this frontcourt group, as Bryant could even play the 3 in a big lineup to spell Dell’Orso.

Prediction:

Clearly there’s a ton of talent here even with all of the losses they have incurred. I think Lewis and Bradley are going to fill in just fine as a duo to replace Boswell. Love will be Love, and while I’m not the biggest fan there’s no denying he can score. Dell’Orso is Larsson 2.0 and Townsend and Krivas will be super productive inside. The bench should be solid as well, as they have enough depth for Lloyd to be comfortable as he’s not a guy who like to play 9 or 10 guys. He should quickly find a group of 8 or max 9 that will be able to consistently score. The one spot where I could see a problem potentially is on the glass, with Ballo and Johnson out they lose 2 great rebounders that helped them be top-20 in offensive rebounding and top-10 in defensive rebounding. Townsend and Krivas should be solid, along with Awaka, but those are big shoes to fill. Even in the loss to Clemson in the Sweet 16 last year that duo had 12 offensive boards combined. That’s elite not just solid. So, we may see a step back on the boards, even if still good, and we may see a step back scoring as well. I’m not convinced of this, but there is a chance guys like Lewis and Bradley don’t handle the Big 12 physicality well or even just lose efficiency with more volume. Plus they’re relying on Dell’Orso who is making a big jump in competition. I still believe they will be top-15 good, but not good enough to come into the Big 12 and win the league right away. It could be that a lot of their regular season success was in part because they got to beat up on a bad Pac-12, at least the bottom half of it. This league is no joke aside from maybe 2 programs this year. They certainly didn’t have to go to places like Hilton, Allen Fieldhouse or down to Houston for that dog fight (who beat them in 2022 Sweet 16). They feel like a 4 seed team to me, as outside of Love there are a lot of unproven guys at this level who have to step up and fill massive voids. I’ll think they’ll do a pretty good job of doing so but it won’t be as easy in this Conference to get 27+ wins. Solid season, but given the success of the Lloyd era it probably will be the worst during his tenure.

5.) Baylor (#15)

State of the Program:

Similar to Virginia, Baylor broke through a few years ago to win a National Championship and haven’t made it out of the first weekend since (3 straight R2 losses). Scott Drew has of course done a great job to turn Baylor into a perennial contender as they’ve been a 1, 1, 3 and 3 seed the last 4 seasons though so you certainly can’t complain if you’re a Baylor fan since you have the Natty under your belt. Still, they’ll enter this season with no remaining holdovers from that championship team so it’s a new era and time to find some more postseason success with these newcomers. Langston Love and Jayden Nunn are back after good years last year, but the rest of the lineup is going to be all new guys. Leading the way are 2 guys we all know very well in Jeremy Roach from Duke and Norchad Omier from Miami. Both guys have been to a Final 4 during their careers so they bring a ton of experience along with their abilities. Roach will be the starting PG and Omier will start inside, pretty easy call there. There’s some question marks after that though as these FR incoming are going to be hard not to start. VJ Edgecombe is almost assuredly a starter right away as he’s as good a scoring guard as you’ll see coming out of HS. He can score it at all 3 levels, and while he’s a bit undersized he uses his body well and has the quickness to create space. He may just come in here and lead the team in scoring in year 1. Rob Wright should backup Roach, but Asemota, although lower ranked, may have a better shot at a big role just due to his size and their lack of depth at the 4 spot. He is a good athlete that can hit stand still shots, and with his size has strong 3 and D potential. It’s really a big question besides Omier who will play in the frontcourt with Ojanwuna back after playing the backup 5 man, Njonga who redshirted and then the FR Croatian Dubravcic. Marino is a skilled big man but he’s wiry and worries me as far as his physicality. Frankly I have no idea how this will go, but the most experienced duo would be Omier and Ojanwuna, but neither can shoot so I wouldn’t be shocked if Asemota finds his way to the 4 spot early and often as the Bridges replacement.

Prediction:

Baylor has been elite offensively for years now under Scott Drew and I have no doubt that will continue with this group of guards he has and Omier inside. The big difference over the past couple of years has been the drop off defensively. They went on a 3 year stretch where they were 4th, 22nd and 13th defensively but over the past 2 years have been just 107th and 72nd. That’s just not good enough to win this Conference or have consistent success in March. I don’t have a ton of confidence that is going to improve, especially with Omier coming from Miami where they never defended well and on top of that the reliance on FR. Roach is a good perimeter defender, but outside of that there isn’t much that I can see to convince me they will vastly improve. Kenpom does have them 23rd preseason but I have a hard time figuring out where that 50 spot improvement comes from. As good as I believe they will be offensively, and as excited as I am about watching the FR coming in you have to have a ceiling on a team that is likely to struggle defensively. Similar to Arizona they feel like a 4 seed to me and are a tier below the Kansas/Iowa St/Houston trio in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong they will be an unbelievably good offensive team with these shot makers as Roach/Love/Nunn were all 43%+ last year and Edgecombe surely to be at least mid to high 30’s and Omier is a load inside. I just am not going to hitch my wagon to a team that can’t consistently get stops. Still a good season is ahead but the top-10 ranking is a little pre-mature in my opinion.

6.) Cincinnati (#24)

State of the Program:

Wes Miller has done a good job to bring his guys into this program and develop some consistency and stability in a world where that’s increasingly hard to do. They were young last season in year 1 in the Big 12 but still were very competitive and finished 7-11 in Conference play. They return 4 starters from last year’s group and have brought in some key talent to help them improve as well. Guys like Thomas, Skillings and Lukosius should be the starting backcourt and Badaogo is back to start at the 5. Jizzle James is back after a strong FR year as the 6th man which should continue to be his role and CJ Fredrick is back as well after battling injuries. That right there is a talented and cohesive group of 6, but the additions have a chance to elevate the program even more. The most promising is Texas transfer Dillon Mitchell who is a fantastic fit at the 4 with that starting group. Although Lukosius could be the 4 man and they could start James in a smaller lineup, but he wasn’t a great rebounder and is more of spot shooter, so it really depends on what Miller wants and may be matchup dependent. Connor Hickman is a sharpshooting guard that could find a role as well off the bench and Paige will be the perfect backup 5. I love the roster construction here by Miller, and while they don’t have the top end talent of some of the other teams in the Conference they have enough to take a step forward from last year. The FR Betsey is the last guy that might crack into the lineup but there is a lot in front of him to pass up talent wise. He is an athletic wing that could play the 3 or 4 and has a decent looking jumper with ability to get his own shot. He looks a little raw with it in his hands but the potential to be great is certainly there down the road.

Prediction:

Last year they were a really good defensive team and I look for that to continue, especially with all of the returning guys and the addition of Mitchell and his athleticism, shot blocking and rebounding only strengthen that. I would expect another top-20 season on that end, but the other end is where we’re going to focus as that was a big time deficiency. They really struggled to hit outside shots, with James, Thomas and Skilings all below 30% from 3 helping them rank just 226th in that category. Hickman was obviously brought in to help that, but honestly they really just need those guys to put in the work and improve because they’re very talented in every other area. James and Skillings were both young so I still have some faith they can take a step forward, but they may cede time to guys like Fredrick or Hickman if they’re able to knock down shots. Their 79th ranking offensively is just not going to cut it if they want to take a step forward, and while they should still be very good on the glass (15th OReb 35th Dreb). It really comes down to making more shots, even from the FT line as they shot a pathetic 68% from the line last year. These are things that can improve with off-season work, and with the added competition for minutes I wouldn’t be surprised to see the younger guys elevate their games. I look for Cincy to be a tourney team this year, with a top-20 defensive unit that will secure the glass. They’re pretty solidly behind that upper group talent wise but the cohesion and defense is what gives them the chance to knock 1 or 2 of them off as they try and build a worthy resume. They should be a fringe top-25 team that probably is somewhere between 20-30 overall, and after all the changes losing Cronin and moving conferences they’ll be glad to get back dancing and back on track as a program.

7.) Texas Tech (NR)

State of the Program:

Grant McCasland had a really good year all things considered as Texas Tech was a bit of a surprise as a 6 seed in the NCAA tourney, but it ended in round 1. There’s a decent core back from last year’s group as well, especially in today’s environment to get 4 guys back who heavily contributed while healthy at least means you aren’t fully rebuilding like so many but just reloading. Leading the group is JT Toppin who should come right in and start in the frontcourt, looking to help them get better on the glass and add some rim protection. Tech played small quite often last year so I have no doubt Topping will play both the 4 and 5 given his abilities and length, but Federiko Federiko will also provide some depth at the 5 as well, so they won’t be as thin upfront as last year. Williams is back after starting at the 4, but at just 6’6″ and at 46% from 3 he can easily slide to the 3 in a bigger lineup or play the 4 next to either of those guys. Cambridge also started the first 8 games prior to injury and can similarly play those two spots so once he’s fully healthy they’ll be deep at wing. At PG they brought in one of the leaders in assists last year Elijah Hawkins who gives them a much better playmaker for others than they had a year ago. McMillan will likely join him in the backcourt but they’ll be deep there as well as Walton is a great shooter and he’s back along with transfer Overton who should have a role off the bench. That group is going to be the core of what we see this year, and hopefully they have some better injury luck as if they do they can be competitive once again.

Prediction:

Ultimately in year 2 I think they have a very similar year, but a shift in strengths. They were actually pretty efficient offensively last year as they had a premier scorer in Pop Isaacs and a Robin to his batman in Joe Toussaint. Those guys are both gone and they take 27 ppg with them, with a more pass first PG incoming I think they will have a bit less punch offensively. However, their biggest weakness last year was on defense, specifically because they had no paint presence and had to play really small. The addition of JT Toppin gives them a guy that is both a great rebounder and shot blocker, so they should improve on bad defensive rebounding (228th) and shot blocking (297th). Even with those issues they were 65th defensively, so with Federiko also entering the fold I really think they get better and improve, especially with McCasland’s history having N. Texas a top-25 defensive team his last 2 years. The guards are certainly going to have to step up their scoring, but even if they aren’t as good offensively I think they will get stops more consistently and be right in the range of a 6-8 seed this year again. It’s also important to not they do not have the depth they had a year ago, so an injury or two could really hamper them, especially to Toppin or Federiko as they’ll have to go small again if they aren’t on the floor. With all of that said, they’re not going to win the league but it’s going to be no fun for teams heading to Lubbock this year no doubt.

8.) Kansas St (NR)

State of the Program:

Jerome Tang is now 1 for 2 when it comes to building this K-State roster, as none of his teams have had many returning players, he’s used the transfer portal to build each team. Last year he missed on the guards as they couldn’t hit shots and turned it over a ton. This year is an extremely talented group that I genuinely think could come together and be a real problem in the way they were in year 1 under Tang. Leading the way is PG Dug McDaniel who is a big upgrade over what they had as he should run the show and had a lower TO rate than any of their guards a year ago and was more efficient shooting than Perry was. After him it’s less certain who exactly is going to start but there’s deep competition at the other spots with potential lineup versatility. Achor Achor and Coleman Hawkins certainly figure to be major factors and could play together as the 3-4 in a big lineup or the 4-5 in a smaller one. They have Onyenso and Fall who were both high recruits and have a ton of upside as they’re great athletes that can block shots and rebound at the 5 though, so Tang will have options in terms of how he wants to play. Next to McDaniel there’s a trio of options that can play the 2-3 spots with Max Jones the most promising but all 3 were effective outside shooters so expect to see some of CJ Jones and Brenden Hausen. The returning guys should continue to come off the bench with Rich having a decent FR year and potential at the 3 spot.

Prediction:

The exciting thing about this team to me is McDaniel operating as a distributor with guys like Achor and Hawkins that can be deadly as pick and pop/roll guys. Yes Achor can go get his own as well so it’s not all on McDaniel but having shooters all around him is going to make his assist numbers go up for sure. They have been 25th and 27th defensively under Tang so far so I expect defense to continue to be a strength, especially with all the length and athleticism he has added in the frontcourt. They should be one of the better shot blocking teams and should improve rebounding wise from their terrible numbers last year. They were destroyed on the possession battle, ranking 345th in TO rate and 249th securing defensive rebounds. Improvement in both of those areas will help a ton, but they were also just 285th in 3 point shooting. With 6 guys added to the roster that all shot 37% or better from 3 they almost certainly will improve from their putrid 31.8% from a year ago. Those factors are all critical to me having them this high, which I felt the need to lay out given many places have them a few spots lower. Tang is a really good HC, just didn’t quite have the talent last year to actually succeed, as TO’s and shooting really come down to the guys on the floor executing most of the time. This group has a lot more promise and I do think their ceiling is to get into the dance as like an 8 or 9 seed with some firepower to make some noise. I don’t think they have a shot to win the league by any means but they should be pesky. Of course as with all of this overhauls it has a chance to crash and burn but I do believe in Tang as he’s done this before and has succeeded. Expectations should at least be to compete and be in the bubble conversation as March approaches.

9.) BYU (NR)

State of the Program:

Well Mark Pope is off to greener pastures in Kentucky but he leaves the program still without a tournament win since 2011 when Jimmer Fredette took the nation by storm. The Cougars have taken a chance hiring first time College HC in Kevin Young. For those that don’t know (which was me until I had to write this) Young does have HC experience overseas as well as in the NBA D-League. He has been an Assistant in the NBA for years now and looks to finally make his name in the HC ranks. Pope did leave behind the core of a group that was a 6 seed last year and performed well in year 1 in the Big 12. Many scoffed at my 6th place prediction a year ago, but they in fact ended up t-5th and were solid despite many not seeing them coming. I do have some more hesitation this year though with their leading scorers Johnson and Robinson leaving the program but they did play a lot of guys last year and have a nucleus back to give Young some stability in year 1. Traore, Knell, Saunders and Hall were all major contributors last year and guys like Dawson Baker and Trey Stewart will now have the opportunity to step into larger roles and should be productive. My concern is in the frontcourt, as Traore is good but he’s undersized at 6’6″ and they lost the other 3 bigs that played last year. Keba Keita is in from Utah and he’ll likely be a mainstay at the 5, but beyond him they’ll have to play very small. They have just Rutgers transfer Mawot Mag and promising freshman Kanon Catchings to play the 3 or stretch 4. Catchings was a Purdue commit that flipped to BYU over the summer likely in search of more playing time. He can shoot it from outside and has great athleticism that allows him to be a factor defensively and dangerous when he attacks downhill. He’s not a starter in my opinion based on Mag/Traore/Keita being there but he should have a role as a backup for sure. It’s a promising group for Young in year 1 but it’s not without it’s weaknesses.

Prediction:

My primary concern is going to be the glass and defense. They were sub-50th defensively last year, and while they held down the boards very well 3 of the 4 bigs are gone with not as much coming in and Johnson one of their best rebounders as well and he’s gone. The biggest wildcard though is how Young wants his teams to play and how that fits with this roster. Will he be a guy that morphs his teams style or try and force them to fit what he wants? We don’t really know, but coming from the NBA I would think he’ll have them play fast paced with a lot of ballscreens offensively. It truly is hard to predict but what we know is he has some good outside shooters and a group that 6th in assists per made FG last year so they are comfortable in a motion offense. Ultimately I think they lost more than they brought in and they also lost their HC which is no thing to just brush off. We really have no idea what to expect out of Young and it remains to be seen if they can make up for the scoring losses or improve defensively, and what about the glass? I think this could be a surprising step backwards as most people have the Cougars up higher than this. There’s also a chance Young comes in and transforms who these guys are and they play even better than last year, with an improvement on defense certainly something that could elevate them even if they take a step back offensively. They’re as wild a wildcard as you can get with this much returning talent as we just don’t know what their identity will be. I expect them to miss the tourney, but if you can’t tell, I am sure about nothing when it comes to BYU this year.

10.) TCU (NR)

State of the Program:

When Jamie Dixon took over this program in 2017 they hadn’t made the NCAA tourney since 1998. They have now gotten there 3 straight years, and while they’re just 2-3 in the dance the fact they even got there this consistently is a win for the program. Dixon of course won’t necessarily look at it that way but it’s certainly an accomplishment for him, especially in what has been the best Conference in college hoops over the last 5 years. This year may be a bit more of a struggle though, as they lost essentially everyone from a veteran team that was a 6 seed last year. They only get center Ernest Udeh Jr back and the rest of the roster will be made of transfers and FR. I’m getting used to saying that at this point as it is becoming ridiculously common. Anyway, they will be led by incoming guards Frankie Collins and Noah Reynolds, but have some depth as well with guys like Vasean Allente, Brendan Wenzel RJ Jones all looking to compete for minutes at the 1-3 spots. At the 4 will almost assuredly be Trazarien White who scored in double figures every game last year and should be a main producer for Dixon at that position. The frontcourt is very thin so the FR are going to have to play and may have production that exceeds their ranking just out of sheer opportunity. Micah Robinson is the highest ranked but he’s truly more of a guard than forward so I can only see him playing at the 3 and there’s a lot of depth there already as RS FR Jace Posey is also there and likely ahead of him, so I don’t know how much we’ll see of him. The guy who I think we’ll see more of is David Punch who is more of a stretch 4 that could backup White and rotate in the frontcourt. He rebounds well and can step out and hit a standstill jumper so he will spread the floor but give them a physical presence as well. If they don’t want to go small behind Udeh their only option is FR Malick Diallo who has all the physical tools to be a rim protecting big man but is raw in his development. At the top the roster is strong but there a quite a few question marks here.

Prediction:

There will certainly be a step backwards for TCU this year, as a 4th tourney in a row may be a bit too much to expect. They have a very solid backcourt duo with Collins and Reynolds, but neither are really defenders and they’re not the best outside shooters. White, Wenzel and Allette are better as shooters and give them a group of 5 guys that have proven they can score in college basketball. My concerns lie in the frontcourt and how they’ll fare defensively. Udeh started 29 games at the 5 last year but he played just 17 mpg and wasn’t all that productive in those minutes anyway. That was in part because he fouled at an absurd rate but they could absorb that because they had 4 other guys 6’8″ or taller. This year that is not the case at all, and if they have to go small early and often it could get ugly on the glass and teams will be able to get whatever they want in the paint. In theory Wenzel could slid to the 4 with White at the 5 but again that is not a recipe for success. They of course could get more out of the FR Diallo than I’m expecting but with guys like him it’s usually a struggle to not foul and not turn it over when they get the ball. I’m very worried against the top competition about their depth inside and potential inability to get a rebound. Dixon is a good coach and does have some real talented guards here but I just don’t think their scoring ability is going to be enough to make up for the deficiencies they are going to have. The streak of tourney berths is going to end in my opinion, but they still aren’t going to be a punching bag by any means, this conference is just too good and too deep.

11.) Arizona St (NR)

State of the Program:

As well as coach Hurley’s brother has gotten UConn rolling it has to hurt Bobby a bit as his Arizona St continues to struggle to get its footing. They’ve made 3 NCAA tourney’s under his leadership but are 0-3 in those games, being an 11 seed each time. This is Arizona St though so the expecations aren’t as high, as they only made the dance 3 times in the 20 years prior to Hurley arriving, so he has been successful for their standards. This year is going to be another challenge as there was once again a mass exodus from the program. He has had just 3 returning guys each of the past 2 years now and is having to rely on building a new team from the ground up essentially. He did get some very talented mid-major guys though, with BJ Freeman probably being the best in the class at that level. He’s a do everything guard that will be their go-to guy. Alston Mason should also start in the backcourt and along with Adam Miller those 3 will formulate a pretty dangerous backcourt. Inside you have Basheer Jihad who will start at the 4 after a dominant season with Ball St. Those 3 transfers averaged combined 56 points per game which is as strong a trio as you will find. The FR are exciting and the starting center is likely to be 5-star Jayden Quaintance. He is a freak athlete that can do a little bit of everything, kind of in the Bam Adebayo mold as he probably won’t shoot much in college but has that in his bag to develop at the next level. He can handle it well which allows him to faceup and blow bye in the mid-post and is a terror in transition. He’s going to be a highlight reel waiting to happen. Phillips will likely be his backup as I can’t see the kid not starting with his abillity. Guard Joson Sanon also figures to get time as he has a pure jumper and can be effective off the bounce or off the catch. He is a good athlete as well so I certainly expect to see him in the backcourt rotation.

Prediction:

This is a tough one to peg because they do have a ton of promising talent it is just all unproven at this level. The FR have potential, as do the mid-major transfers, but are they ready for Big 12 basketball? Hurely likes to play fast and certainly has the athletes to do that this year, and with some more guys who will be hungry to prove themselves he may find some more consistent effort than he did a year ago. The other positive spin on this is he has a nice blend of mature guys who know how to develop themselves into big time players and young guys who need that mentorship. Maybe that pairing comes together and pushes this roster to a little more success. Ultimately, it’s incredibly difficult to predict but I do believe in Hurley as a HC and the talent at least on paper is undeniable. Quaintance at the 5 is incredibly versatile and athletic and will allow them to pressure defensively and they should be tough to stop in transition with good passers like Freeman and Mason. They have the size and depth inside to handle themselves, it’s just to be determined if those guys are ready for the physicality in the Big 12. Overall, they certainly don’t have the ceiling to win this league but if they are hanging around in bubble discussions as March approaches I won’t be shocked. It’s not something I would bet on but at least moreso than the bottom teams in the league I think they can be competitive. Beat up on the bottom 5 or 6 and find a way to pick off one of the big boys and you’re in the conversation in late February. That should be the goal this year.

12.) UCF (NR)

State of the Program:

Johnny Dawkins is entering his 9th season with UCF where he really hasn’t gotten much going since that one year with Tacko Fall we all remember (2019). It’s been 5 straight seasons of mediocrity since then and in most places around the Country that is going to land you on the hot seat. To be fair this was a program that hadn’t ever won a tournament game prior to that 2019 season where they finally broke through with Dawkins, so with that kind of history he gets a longer leash for accomplishing that. There is some good news here though as their leading scorers are back in Johnson and Sellers who both scored over 15 ppg. Beyond those two though it’s going to be mostly newcomers contributing, making for yet another tough season. They lost their entire frontcourt which was a strength for them last season, and frankly the incoming group there is not very strong. They did get guys like Keyshawn Hall and Benny Williams that will be good small ball 4’s for them but at center it’s going to be interesting. They have promising FR coming in Thiam, who has a thin frame but is very athletic so he has a ton of promise as a rim protector and rebounder. Oftentimes for FR his size staying out of foul troubel can be a problem, and behind him is only Rokas Jocius from La Salle who was a starter but his numbers were suppressed due to foul trouble as well, but when he did stay clean he produced. Guys like Ivy-Curry, Coleman and Dior Johnson will combine with the returning backcourt duo to give them plenty more scoring options.

Prediction:

I have quite a few worries when it comes to this roster, but ultimately it just feels like yet another year of mediocrity. They really struggled offensively last year (148th) as they just coulnd’t take care of the ball (240th) or knock down shots (283rd). It’s really a miracle they won 7 games in the Big 12 with those numbers. That moderate success was mostly due to their 21st ranked D which relied on blocking shots, limiting offensive rebounds and forcing turnovers. I worry about their ability to repeat that with Diallo and Payne gone who were their frontcourt menaces. They did add more offensive shooting ability, at least on paper, so I do expect a step forward on that end, but it likely is going to be all undone by a regression defensively and on the glass. They may be able to play small and get after it even more on the perimeter, but if Thiam can’t come in and be a consistent paint presence then their 22nd ranked 2 point defense might go plummeting. I still think the talent is here to keep them out of the true basement but I do not see them being a team that is fighting for a tournament bid as February comes to a close. They’ve done great as a program to rise from CUSA–>American–>B12 but a lot of that is on the back of the football program, I’m just not sure they’re where they need to be to truly matter in the Big 12 basketball wise. It may be time to make a change at HC after a 6th straight missed tourney, but Dawkins has that magical 2019 season in his back pocket. They’re in an interesting place, but unfortunately they’ll be mostly forgotten once the season gets rolling.

13.) W. Virginia (NR)

State of the Program:

2 years ago Bob Huggins led the Mountaineers to the NCAA tourney as a 9 seed, then some shit happened and now they’re on to their 2nd HC in two years. Last year was a disaster, with Josh Eilert mustering just 9 total wins and now Darian DeVries is here from Drake to try and rebuild a once great program. I’ll be the first to admit I miss Huggy on the sidelines, despite his propensity to utter words that people who don’t watch sports find offensive, but I digress. We are where we are and DeVries has his opportunity to prove he can do what he did at Drake on the big boy stage. He brought is son and 2x Missouri Valley POY Tucker DeVries with him to help him hit the ground running. The backcourt of Jayden Stone and Javon Small are both uber talented scorers and Small is familiar with the Conference coming from Oklahoma St. They are going to be extremely thin in the frontcourt though, with transfer from Fresno St Andre really being the only true 5 man on the roster, with a guy like Amani Hansberry being the next closest thing and he’s very inexperienced. I’m not going to break down every other transfer, but those are the likely starters and the rest of the minutes are up for grabs, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the starters are all playing as many minutes as DeVries can get out of them.

Prediction:

DeVries did a great job to develop Drake into a contender in the MVC, but it wasn’t overnight and the competition certainly wasn’t the Big 12. He’s obviously a fantastic coach but this is a very difficult task and while having his son Tucker along with Small and Stone gives them a trio that will certainly be able to score, their lack of depth inside is going to hamper them. I foresee big struggles on the glass and for teams to be able to get whatever they want in the paint against them. They’ll probably be playing fast and through Small and DeVries offensively, but another weakness I’m seeing is outside shooting. They have just 3 guys on the roster who shot 35% or better from 3 in their past, not good, especially for a team that doesn’t have a go-to big guy. Far too many weaknesses on top of this being a complete rebuild from the ground up means you absolutely cannot trust W. Virginia to win consistently in this Conference. I hope over the long haul DeVries has success as WVU being good is just nostalgic for me, I just don’t see it happening in year 1.

14.) Oklahoma St (NR)

State of the Program:

This is a floundering program after the Mike Boynton era really only consisted of 1 good season in 2021 when they had Cade Cunningham running the show. In comes quickly rising HC Steve Lutz who is now with his 3rd team in the last 4 seasons. He first took Texas A&M Corpus Christi to back-to-back NCAA tourney’s which landed him the W. Kentucky job where he led them to the big dance as well. 3 straight Conference tourney championships has brought him to the Big 12 after spending over a decade under Greg McDermott and Matt Painter as an assistant. It’s not a complete and total rebuild as he was able to hang on to a couple of guards, most notably Bryce Thompson who was a double digit scorer last year and a former top-25 recruit. Lutz essentially brought in multiple guys at every position via the transfer portal, completely ignoring any sort of FR recruiting. There are several high major guys who will be hoping to find some more playing time, including familiar names like Davonte Davis (Arkansas), Robert Jennings (Tx Tech), Brandon Newman (WKU<–Purdue) and Abou Ousmane (Xavier). There’s a standout duo in the backcourt as well from the mid-major ranks in Brantley and Dean so the competition for minutes is clearly going to be fierce. He also will likely play a lot of guys as he had W. Kentucky play the fastest tempo in the Nation last year.

Prediction:

First year coach, completely rebuilt roster and in a tough conference like the Big 12 is not a recipe for success. Not to mention the fact that the incoming group is not that inspiring, and while there are some guys who are looking to prove themselves it’s not a great sign when you look at a group of 10-12 guys and have virtually no idea who would start and who wouldn’t. It’s a deep roster of decent, kind of just a pick up team with all the misfits that end up linking up so they can play. Lutz has a promising future as a HC in my opinion but he is going to need some time here to clean up the mess that was left behind. Hopefully he can get some of these guys who have multiple years of eligibility to stick around and then build on that next year. Needless to say I don’t expect much success out of the Pokes, but there’s enough here to keep them above the last 2 I have in the league, which honestly speaks to their lack of talent more than to the hope I have for this roster.

15.) Utah (NR)

State of the Program:

Utah had an interesting year last year as they got off to a promising start, going 14-5 with wins over BYU, St. Mary’s and Wazzu who all ended up in the tourney (7 seeds or better). They finished the season just 5-9 and missed the tourney, with a lot of that likely due to starting PG Rollie Worster getting hurt after game 16. He is gone now via transfer, as are 6 total guys from their regular rotation of 9 last year with just Gabe Madsen, Lawson Lovering and Hunter Erickson back. Madsen and Lovering were regular starters so we should see them back there again, and given the relative inexperience incoming I would expect Erickson to probably start as well. The most promising of the incoming transfers is Ezra Ausar who should start at the 4 as he can stretch it out to hit 3’s and has good length. The other guy I would watch is Miro Little who was a top-50 recruit to Baylor that just played sparingly off the bench last year. The last guy of note is the top-100 FR Jaxon Johnson who is a stretch 4 at this level that is a decent athlete but is most known for his jumper. He may struggle to find time this year but the guys incoming aren’t necessarily world beaters so he’ll have a shot.

Prediction:

There’s not much to say here really this is a team that lost a ton of talent from a squad that didn’t make the tourney last year and struggled in a down Pac-12. Now they enter a very tough Big 12 conference in which they will likely get bent over many many times. I do not expect many wins, although they do have a decent core that could have enough to knock off one or two of these other bottom feeders in this conference. Craig Smith is in a tough spot because Utah is a football school, with a string of losing since the late 90’s/early 2000’s with Rick Majerus at the helm when they went to 7 of 8 tourney’s and even made it to the national title game in ’98. Since he left after the ’04 season they’ve only made the tourney 4 times, with a quick burst back in the Kuzma/Poetl days, but overall it hasn’t been consistent success for 20 years now. And oh by the way, that was back in the Mountain West days, this is the Big 12, good luck.

16.) Colorado (NR)

State of the Program:

I am a little surprised after last year’s success that Tad Boyle wasn’t able to build on that with a top FR class or a top transfer portal class. Especially with all the excitement and notoriety the football program has brought I would think his resources have grown. Who knows though, maybe Deion is taking all the NIL funds for himself, we’ll never know, all we do know is this may be the most drastic reduction in talent across high major basketball. 6 of the 7 leading scorers are gone with just the 6th overall scorer in Julian Hammond III back. There is only 1 guy who has played D1 basketball incoming to replace that lost production with Andrej Jakimovski coming over from Wazzu. Beyond that it’s a DII transfer and a NAIA transfer joining the bench players from last season and 4 FR. Not a lot to get excited about, and while there could be a surprising surge from some of the guys who were not playing much last year that would be expecting a lot if that’s your expectations. The best of the FR is Andrew Crawford who comes in with good length and athleticism as a wing which allows him to be versatile on defense. He has some work to do offensively but he will finish well at the rim and has good feel with the ball. Sebastian Rancik is the other FR with promise as he’s a stretch 4 with guards skills that will make him tough to defend as his 6’9″ frame allows him to punish smaller defenders inside but also he can blow by bigger guys and has the handle to creatively get to the cup. They are guys that will need to develop but if Boyle can hold on to them it’s the beginning of a new talented crop that could one day be impactful.

Prediction:

Unsurprisingly I do not have high expectations for this year’s Colorado team, year 1 in the Big 12 is going to be a wake up call. There’s really no way to say for sure how they will play or who they will play, as they regularly only played 7 or max 8 guys last year with 6 of them being gone. It’s a pretty simple calculation method, massive amount of production exiting the program, not much proven production entering. It is all on younger guys stepping up to fill the void, and in a Conference like this with all of this talent at the top I find it hard to believe this team gets more than a couple wins in the Big 12. There is a lot of youth on the roster though, so if you’re a Buff fan you have to at least have hope that this can be a year to build on and maybe Boyle will have some more luck next off-season bringing in some more proven talent to try and compete with. Until then, Colorado unfortunately is going to have a tough time finding wins.

Pre-Season Prediction

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1.) Alabama (#1)

State of the Program:

You could probably count on one hand the programs that are in a better spot right now than Alabama. Nate Oats has this thing humming, reaching the tourney in 4 straight seasons after just 2 trips in the 13 seasons prior to his arrival. With this most recent trip to the Final Four only a National Championship remains on the list of goals not yet accomplished. Last year’s group wasn’t perfect though, as they really struggled defensively, ranking 111th per KenPom, which was a major step backwards after the 2023 team that won the SEC was 3rd. The difference? They didn’t have the bigs inside to protect the paint and finish possessions with a rebound. They missed guys like Charles Bediako and Noah Clowney who helped that team lead the nation in opponents 2 point shooting %. That number ballooned to rank 201st last year, as did their offensive rebounds allowed, rising all the way to 277th in the nation. It’s honestly super impressive a team with those deficiencies was able to get to a Final 4, but that’s a testament to how elite they were offensively. Mark Sears carried the way, and he is back to try and help Nate Oats and Alabama win a Natty. Alongside him will be two perfect fits with Chris Youngblood and Houston Mallette both transferring in as 42% 3 point shooters and high volume scorers at their previous spots. Those 3 along with Latrell Wrightsell form a very very solid backcourt, quite possibly the best in the Country if the transfers continue shooting at that clip as all 4 were well over 40% from 3 last year. With all of that being said the biggest addition in my opinion is big man Cliff Omoruyi from Rutgers. He’s exactly what they need, with the pedigree to be a menace on defense in the paint and the track record to control the glass much better than the bigs they had a year ago, so he helps to solve their biggest weaknesses from last year. Grant Nelson is back and he’ll contribute in the frontcourt as well, likely starting at the 4 out of the gate. Now the FR, which is a loaded class of 4 top-50 guys, which is unreal at a place like Bama. It’s headlined by 5-star wing Derrion Reid who is a big physical wing that has bounce and length, making him a prime one-and-done prospect. He projects as a 3 and D type wing, and with Bama this year should find some time at the 3 or 4 if he can knock down shots and rebound well. Grant Nelson had an up and down year last year so don’t be shocked if Reid overtakes him at the 4, but he could also play a big 3 if Oats is comfortable with his shooting ability. Sharrell is mostly ranked on his potential in my opinion, as he’s still raw as a center but at 6’11” with his length and athleticism you can understand the ceiling for him as a rim protector and presence inside. He’ll backup Omoruyi and have a fantastic guy to learn from at the position. Philon is a promising PG prospect but will be stuck behind a solid group of guards, but as a backup to Sears we should at least see him from time to time. Lastly it’s Cunningham, who is built much different than Reid as he’s wiry and thin but he’s a good shooter, so if Oats trusts him more to knockdown outside shots he may find time over Reid.

Prediction:

Obviously, the amount of talent here is just off the charts, with one of if not the deepest rosters in the country. The backcourt is full of sharpshooters that can also create buckets for themselves, which is perfect for Oats. He’s at the point where he can hand pick his ideal guys and build his perfect team. That’s dangerous folks. In case you haven’t watched them much or haven’t heard of Oats here’s a quick rundown. Stylistically he wants to play at a breakneck pace (top-15 all 5 years with Bama) and essentially has eliminated mid-range jumpers from their game plan, it’s paint shots or 3’s only (351st in % of points from 2’s last year). That’s not by mistake, it’s all by design and all a complete submission to analytics by Oats, you have to at least respect it, and frankly it’s the part of college basketball I love the most. You have guys like Matt Painter who want to play through a post player, or Kelvin Sampson who wants to get in a rock fight every night, or Tony Bennett who literally only cares about help side defense and taking charges all the way to this man Nate Oats who has a 4-point line in his practices to encourage his guys to practice and take deeper and deeper 3’s. The strategies are endless and the variety of basketball you get to watch at this level is what makes it unique compared to the NBA where it’s iso/ball screen every time so the best players in the world can get a bucket. Don’t blame them, but don’t blame me for enjoying variety on my plate. Anyway I digress, Bama and Oats have been fun for years now, but it’s getting ratcheted up to a whole new level with the talent he’s getting. He has addressed their issues inside with Omoruyi so I expect to see them be much better on the glass and on defense. Again, with a guy who can block shots and protect the paint that allows you to be much more aggressive on the perimeter and try and force TO’s, knowing if you get beat you’re funneling guys to your shot blocker inside. Offensively they may get better somehow, as they likely will be the best 3 point shooting team in the Country and have a POY candidate in Sears. The expectations here are SEC championship and a return trip to the Final 4 where they can try and bring Bama a basketball championship. Football money is going to change the landscape, and it’s no more evident than with this Bama program and frankly the SEC as a whole. Bama is for real, but after this year Oats may be off to the NBA if he wants to, so they better capitalize with a Natty while they can.

2.) Auburn (#6)

State of the Program:

Auburn somewhat quietly suffered what was the biggest statistical upset of the tourney last year, and while most of the chatter was about Oakland beating Kentucky, Yale’s win over Auburn was a historic win. No team since at least 2005 had entered the dance top-15 in offensive AND defensive efficiency and lost in the first round (that’s as far back as I’ve gone). 55 out of 55 such teams got out of the first round unscathed, until Auburn last year, so while it wasn’t the most newsworthy as we’ve become much more accustomed to the 4/13 upset, statistically it was the most improbable in recent memory. Much of that core is back to avenge that upset, with big man Johni Broome leading the way, 6 more guys are back around him to form a deep and hungry group. Chad Baker–Mazara and Denver Jones are the other starters who are back, and the three of them are a solid group to build around. What could make them even better than a year ago are the upgrades at the guard spots though, as the trio of KD Johnson, Aden Holloway and Tre Donaldson all left after an inconsistent and inefficient season. JP Pegues and Miles Kelly are both studs and will likely come in and start alongside Jones in the backcourt to form a very dangerous group to pair with All-Conference big man Broome. They have depth as well, with Cardwell, Johnson and Moore all back plus transfer Hudson to fill in at the 3-5 spots and allow Baker-Mazara to play the 3 as the backcourt rests. All of that depth is without including the 2 FR, most importantly the backup PG Tahaad Pettiford who has a ton of ability. He’s a bit undersized but is quick with the ball and has a true PG skillset. He can shoot it, but more importantly can get to the rim and elevate to finish as well as find his teammates, so he has a ton of promise and could push Pegues for more and more minutes as the season goes on. Jahki Howard is the other FR and this dude is a high flyer, do yourself a favor and check out his dunk reel. I’m not sure how he’ll factor in beyond some light work at the 3, but his length and athleticism make him a promising prospect if he can develop some sort of offensive game and use his length to be a nasty defender. Of course, not all 11 of these guys is going to play regularly, but to have that depth is huge especially for a team with expectations as high as Bruce Pearl and company have.

Prediction:

Pearl has had a lot of success here building Auburn into a perennial contender in the SEC, and with a solid core back from what was his best team statistically my expectations are sky high. I think this is one of the best teams in the country with Pegues and Kelly elevating the backcourt and most importantly Broome continuing to dominate inside. They do lose Jaylin Williams which is big as he was the 2nd leading scorer, but I refer back to the guard additions, as they will have much more punch in the backcourt scoring wise and should be able to play 4 out around Broome and be really tough to deal with. If I’m looking for weaknesses it would be rebounding, as they already struggled securing defensive rebounds, just 223rd in the country, and losing 6’8″ Williams could be tough, but again I’ll pick on last year’s group of guards as they did not rebound much. Kelly and Pegues averaged almost 10 boards combined, so I think the added physicality they bring will help make up for playing a little smaller with Baker-Mazara at the 4 at times. I love the culture that Pearl has built here, they play hard and up tempo and this group is going to be hungry after the crushing upset last year. They may not have as much firepower as Bama, but I for one can’t wait for the Broome/Omoruyi matchups inside. It’s going to be another fun one for Auburn fans, and the SEC may finally supplant the other leagues in basketball along with football. They have as good a chance as ever to get to a Final 4 and compete for a Natty.

3.) Tennessee (#13)

State of the Program:

Rick Barnes has turned Tennessee into one of the premier programs in the Conference, turning in 3 straight seasons of top-10 efficiency and a regular season title last year. For the most part the brand of basketball has been consistent, they want to drag you into the deep water and see how much fight you have. It’s physical, it’s nasty and frankly a horrific time for anyone not involved or a fan of the Vols. I don’t expect that to change, but there has been a massive exodus from the program, including guys like Josiah-Jordan James, Tobe Awaka and Jonas Aidoo that helped forge that style over the years. Zakai Zeigler is back though to lead the show at PG, and Jahmai Mashack will look to help him continue that culture of physicality. The real story here though is going to be the transfers, as Barnes once again went after the most prolific mid-major scorers he could get his hands on, with Chaz Lanier and Darlinstone Dubar looking to come in and be the next Dalton Knecht. Both shot over 50% from the field and 40% from 3, which is unbelievably efficient given the volume they took on. Lanier made 96 3’s at a 43% clip, which is unreal, and not to be ignored the 6’8″ Dubar made 72 at 40%. That is a big deal for a Tennessee team that shot just 34% from 3 last year and has really struggled over the years from deep. The loss of Aidoo is also big, but Ohio St transfer Felix Okpara is a perfect substitute as he was top-20 in block shot % last year and will be a perfect anchor for them at the 5. They also brought in versatile big Igor Milicic Jr who also can stretch the floor as he hit 38% of his 3’s and could play a stretch 4 in a big lineup for the Vols. They have much more front court depth than they did last year with Estrella also back they have 3 guys 6’10” or bigger who should help them shore up the defensive glass where they were just 139th a year ago. It’s a new look Vols team but the talent here is obviously enough to warrant similarly high expectations. Bishop Boswell is the lone FR coming in, and while he won’t have a huge role he should see consistent time behind Zeigler at the point and has a ton of promise to be the PG of the future with his combination of size, athleticism and ability to score at all 3 levels.

Prediction:

They don’t have a guy like Dalton Knecht on this roster, but the group of Zeigler, Lanier, Dubar, Gainey and Mashack is going to be able to make up most of the difference, and overall may be a more lethal group as last year’s team needed Knecht to carry them often. Them being a top-15 team certainly hinges on them continuing to be a top defensive unit as well, as they’ve now been top-5 defensively 4 years in a row. That fight and physicality continuing to be their identity is the expectation, and with the talent incoming if they buy into that mentality the Vols are going to be dangerous once again. This is much more of an overhaul though as compared to last year, so there is some hesitation, as getting these transfers to up their level of physicality to the Tennessee standard is no easy task. The addition of Okpara certainly helps, as he is one of the best shot blockers in the Country and as I’ve said repeatedly having a guy like that inside helps the perimeter guys a ton as they can pressure and cause chaos knowing if they’re beat the big fella inside can help them out and alter/block shots. They should be a better shooting team from outside and with Zeigler running the show they’re in good hands. The big goal will be to finally get over the hump with Barnes, as they’ve had really good teams but haven’t been able to get to a Final 4. In 6 trips they’ve gotten to the Sweet 16 3 times and the Elite 8 for the first time last year. The goal has to be a repeat SEC regular season championship and a Final 4, and while I don’t think they’ll win the league, if Lanier and Dubar come in and are double digit scorers and buy in to the culture they should have the firepower offensively to have a shot at a Final 4 run.

4.) Texas A&M (#18)

State of the Program:

Buzz Williams has done a terrific job turning this thing around and has gotten A&M to the tourney 2 years in a row and got a March victory last year. It was pretty unbelievable that they were the 26th best offensive unit a year ago when you look at their shooting percentages. They shot just 29% from 3, good for 342nd in the country, and had an effective FG% that ranked 341st. The only reason they could be efficient in any way was they led the nation in offensive rebounding. Guys like Henry Coleman III, Solomon Washington and Andersson Garcia are absolute menaces on the glass and they are all back. They also brought in Pharrell Payne from Minnesota who is a perfect fit as he was one of the top offensive rebounders in the Country, with a better rate than any of those 3. That group of 4 in the frontcourt means the SEC will once again have an animal to deal with when they face the Aggies as I fully expect them to lead the country in this category again. Hopefully for them though, they will be able to shoot it better, and their lead man Wade Taylor is back to try and help them elevate. The brought in Zhuric Phelps to be the Radford replacement, but he is not much of an outside shooter, just 22% a year ago so he’ll be more of a downhill attack guy. The guy who could help them knockdown shots is Manny Obaseki who came on strong to end the season, playing way more and scoring double figures in the final 9 games and shooting over 40% from 3 in the process. That trio starting in the backcourt should be an improvement and they also brought in CJ Wilcher from Nebraska who shot 39% from 3, so they should have better shooting numbers this year, which won’t be that hard to accomplish. They’re deep, they play hard for Buzz and have a go-to guy in Wade Taylor that always gives them a chance so expectations should be high.

Prediction:

I expect the Aggies to be a step above who they were last year but still not an elite team. They have an identity, as they dominate the boards despite being undersized and actually got better in that area with Payne coming in, who along with his shot blocking is the best interior guy they’ve had in recent memory. That along with the emergence of Obaseki are they keys in my mind for thinking they’ll be better, as the core is still there so we know who they are, I just think they’ll improve in some weak areas and have strengthened some of their strengths. They still have limitations, including paint defense after ranking just 171st in 2 pt defense last year, and also ironically defensive rebounding as they were just 128th in securing defensive boards. I expect both of those to be better with Payne roaming around, who the more I write about A&M is becoming more and more important for them to take a step forward and truly be a top-25 team. They are not good enough to be among the elite in the Conference, so I don’t see them winning it by any means, but they have a ceiling of like a 4 seed in the tourney and could be an absolute menace to face in the dance as their ability shocked even a hard nosed team like Houston last year who they pushed to OT thanks to a whopping 26 offensive boards. Do not sleep on A&M and let’s get Buzz Williams more interviews because he is a joy to listen to as it’s easy to see why these guys have bought in for him and play so hard. Expect the Aggies to be dancing for a 3rd year in a row and a trip to the Sweet 16 and beyond is fully in the cards.

5.) Texas (#19)

State of the Program:

Rodney Terry has done a pretty good job to right the ship after a tumultuous exit from Chris Beard midseason. He’s guided a talented roster to a 2-0 record in the first round of the tourney and trip to the Elite 8 his first time. That has created some stability, but with a mass exodus from the program and 6 transfers coming in plus 3 FR, it’s completely his roster and his point to prove now. The good news is this transfer class is incredible, with 5 guys that are starting caliber, with 4 likely to as all were double digit scorers. It’s hard to even point to the most important guy, but the trio of Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and Arthur Kaluma were all power Conference starters and should come right in to create the new core for this year’s team. I expect returning big man Shedrick to start a the 5 alongside Kaluma at the 4. With Pope and Mark in the backcourt that leaves a starting spot open. We now turn to 5-star FR Tre Johnson, who at 6’6″ is one of the best scorers entering college basketball this year. He has length, athleticism and a pure stroke from outside, giving him all the tools to be a 3 level scorer at the next level. He’ll compete with transfers Julian Larry, Jayson Kent and Chendall Weaver to start but all of them are very talented and should get playing time. Kaluma and Shedrick inside is solid, but after them it’s very thin, as their tallest guys are Onyema the UTEP transfer from last year and incoming FR Nic Codie at 6’8″. Codie is more of a stretch wing that has size, kind of in a De’Andre Hunter vein, as he has guard skills but has the size to play the 4, but you really wouldn’t want him as a 5 man. So, therein-lies the weakness of the roster, as rebounding and defending the paint could be a problem as they will likely be undersized at times, especially if Shedrick gets in foul trouble.

Prediction:

The optimistic outlook for this roster is that all of this offensive talent comes in and gels and they are one of the most difficult lineups to stop in the country. They have creators like Pope and Larry that can create for others and also 4-5 guys who can get their own shots. They will likely play small and be very athletic, so defensively they should be able to ramp up the pressure and switch almost everything. Obviously the boards could be an issue, but guys like Kaluma and Kent are plus rebounders even though they’re only 6’8″, so while at the 5 they may be outmatched they could play a bigger lineup at other positions as the 6’6″ FR Johnson could play the 2 at times. Yes I worry about the AAU style of roster where it’s just a bunch of scorers brought together, but I do trust a guy like Jordan Pope to be an orchestrator and Kent/Larry/Mark are all comfortable as spot up shooters. My fear is moreso on the defensive end of the floor, and while I can highlight the potential versatility, it’s hard to imagine this group coming together and playing effectively as a unit, especially without much rim protection and a weakness on the boards. If they can just be competent on that end, somewhere in the 50th ranked range then I do think they could have a top-10 efficiency offensive group. It’s hard to fully trust Rodney Terry just yet, as he inherited a core from Beard that did take a step backwards defensively in his first season. I’m high on the Longhorns because of their potential and maybe that will be a flop like we’ve seen with teams loading up in the transfer portal before, but Terry did bring in 5 transfers to last year’s team that was a 7-seed in the tourney. This class is far more talented, and he can do a lot for his reputation if he can get them to gel and compete at the top of a very competitive Conference. I definitely think they’re a notch below the top teams, but there’s no reason they can’t get back into the tourney, and by then this thing could really be humming and be dangerous.

6.) Arkansas (#22)

State of the Program:

It’s a brand new era in Fayetteville as Coach Cal surprised the CBB world and left Kentucky to try and build Arkansas into a power. He brings his 6 SEC championships, 6 Final Fours and 1 Natty with him, as he looks to continue to add to the trophy case and maybe prove to the folks of Kentucky it’s not always greener on the other side. Heading into year 1 he’s already proven one thing, he’s still got it when it comes to recruiting guys to play for him. Between the transfer portal and his FR class he put together a roster that should be ready to contend right away. The transfers are led by Johnell Davis who we all know from the FAU run to the Final 4 in 2023, and after averaging 18 ppg last year he is a sure fire starter and immediate go-to offensive weapon. Jonas Aidoo is the ready made 5 man for Cal coming in from Tennessee which gives them length and size inside, but he’ll be pushed by Kentucky follower Ivisic who didn’t get going in his FR year but has a ton of potential. At PG Cal brought DJ Wagner with him, but he also got a big time FR in Boogie Fland who is primed for a big season. He can do everything you want a point guard to do, as his jumper is solid, he can finish at the rim and has good feel for setting up his teammates. No idea who will start but both should play and have a role regardless. At the other wing spot will likely be another FR, with 2 solid candidates to choose from. Karter Knox is the higher ranked of the two and he is a physical force, reminding you of an OG Anunoby style wing as he can block shots, rebound and will get to the rim and finish with authority. His jumper is decent but that may limit him early if he can’t prove to be a perimeter threat. He will be able to play the 3 but may be more suited to slide down to the 4 with his size which gives Cal even more lineup versatility. The other is Billy Richmond, who is actually quite similar to Knox as he is physically gifted and likes to play above the rim. They are both going to be deadly in transition and as slashers/cutters but we’ll see if either one can prove to be a consistent outside shooter. The lone holdover Trevon Brazille is the likely starter at the 4, and due to his experience I would expect that to be pretty solid. Adou Thiero will also be a factor in the backcourt, although his lack of shooting ability likely will limit his play time like it did at Kentucky. That’s a solid group of 9, with DII transfer Melo Sanchez maybe the only other one who could crack into the rotation as he may be the best outside shooter on the roster outside of Johnell Davis. It’s a really talented group but it will certainly take one of Cal’s best coaching jobs to get them competing off the bat.

Prediction:

I have a ton of faith in Cal when it comes to bringing in large groups of new guys and getting them to come together, he’s been doing it for years so it’s kind of hard to doubt at this point. They have 2 solid guys at the 5, a solid group that can rotate at the 4 in Brazille and the 2 FR, and the 2 PG’s should both be solid. Where I’m worried is the guards and specifically the lack of outside shooting. Johnell Davis can score and was 41% from 3 last year, but the other options are Thiero, Sanchez and the 2 FR, unless Cal is going to play Wagner and Fland together some. Even so, Wagner was just 29% a year ago from 3. Those guys can improve of course, but on paper heading into the year that’s the clear weakness for this roster. There may be others, but given that one in particular I would expect Cal to want this group to get out and run to utilize the athleticism, especially with the FR coming in and Brazille and Aidoo inside. They should be able to defend the paint well with that lanky front court as well, and with the athleticism there’s no reason they should struggle on the boards or on D. Whether or not Cal can get them all up to speed defensively is another question though, as he’s struggled recently with the young teams pairing with transfers. He hasn’t had a top-25 team defensively since 2019, which conveniently is also the last time he’s made it out of the first weekend in March. So, with all of that said it’s clear that the talent on paper is there to be a contender, but there’s a few big question marks. Will they be able to knock down shots and will they defend? That’s what you need to look for early in the season, and if they struggle I would be willing to bet it’s those two issues. Not exactly saying much though those are two critical parts of the game of basketball. Anyway, I believe in Cal getting the most out of his guys, and he brought the FR and many of the transfers with him from Kentucky so they’re there to play for him. I expect at least a tourney berth in year 1, maybe I’m crazy, but coaching matters and Cal has been in 16 of the last 18 tourney’s and has the talent to do it again.

7.) Kentucky (#25)

State of the Program:

Just like Arkansas it’s a whole new era for BBN, as they get a new voice in the program and bring in a former player in Mark Pope to lead the program. It was somewhat surprising from an outsiders perspective to see Cal be run off, and while it wasn’t a firing or anything like that it was clear he was tired of dealing with the unrealistic expectations the fanbase has every season. With him he took several transfers and a ton of FR talent, leaving Pope with quite a rebuilding project in year 1. Pope did a pretty good job to elevate BYU, turning in 3 top-20 Kenpom seasons in 5 years as he showed off his offensive mind. He went out and used the Kentucky brand to bring in quite the transfer group with 7 guys incoming that averaged 11+ ppg and 10 total transfers. The group of Kerr Kriisa, Jaxson Robinson, Andrew Carr and Koby Brea are 4 of the likely starters and were all big time players at former spots, with Robinson following Pope from BYU. There’s a ton of depth though as well, with Lamont Butler perfectly capable behind Kriisa and Otega Oweh and Ansley Almonor the same behind Robinson and Brea. Brandon Garrison and Amari Williams are a decent combo at the 5 as well, so the roster construction is promising, deep and makes sense with what Pope has traditionally wanted to have which involves playing a deep lineup that shares the ball, plays fast and bombs away from 3. The lone FR that has a slight chance to crack through is Collin Chandler, who is fresh off his 2 year missionary trip he followed Pope from BYU. He was a top-40 recruit and is a gifted athlete and scorer, so pretty experienced depth in the backcourt he is a guy to keep an eye on for the future. Kentucky fans should rightfully be excited, and it could wind up being that both Kentucky and Arkansas win from the change, but Pope certainly has his hands full given the difficulty of rebuilding from scratch and the expectations BBN will place on them.

Prediction:

These rebuilds are incredibly difficult to predict, and Kentucky is as extreme as it gets with nobody back from last year’s roster where do you even begin. Last year there weren’t any teams that had zero returning scholarship players, this year we have multiple so it’s an interesting experiment, but even the near total rebuilds like West Virginia, Penn St, St. John’s, Butler and Arizona St all struggled and failed to make the tourney. Now, none of them have the brand of Kentucky nor did they have this much talent coming in, but the very short history of free agency via the transfer portal is not kind to these massive rebuilds. What gives you hope in this one, and similar looking versions like Arkansas and USC, is the sheer volume of talent and proven production. You have no idea how it’s going to mesh together, especially for a HC that thrives on a well oiled machine of an offense and doesn’t typically have good defensive teams. Pope’s BYU teams were often top-100 in pace and last year were top-10 in both 3 point ratio and assist %. Play fast, share the sugar and do not hesitate to let it fire seem to be the strategies. It’s a fun style for offensive minded guys to want to play for, so it’s no surprise to see him attract all these scoring options and focus on guys who shoot it well from 3. With all of that said I don’t expect them to have many issues scoring, but similar to St. John’s a year ago it’s the other end of the floor that you worry about. They’re going to have to defend at least at an above average level if they want success and that will be the area to watch, even as they beat up on teams early scoring 90+ points, let’s wait and see how they defend good teams before we jump on the bandwagon. Ultimately, I just think this Conference is so deep and so talented they are going to be unable to simply outscore teams. The bottom of the Conference yes, but when they lose to Bama and give up 100 points let’s not be shocked. I think they have the potential to be a tourney team but again similar to St. John’s a year ago it can’t come together defensively in late February, by then it’s too late.

8.) Ole Miss (NR)

State of the Program:

Last year was a bit of a rollercoaster in year 1 under Chris Beard as they started 18-3 only to finish 2-9 down the stretch. It was a unique team to see under Beard as they were pathetic defensively at 141st, which was by far the worst of his career and certainly a point of emphasis for the program heading into year 2. Beard was able to retain much of his core with 3 double digit scorers back and he hit the transfer portal in a big way so a year 2 breakthrough could be on the way. Starters Murrell and Murray are back to lead the backcourt and Dre Davis has come in from Seton Hall to slot into the 3 spot. Pedulla and Barnes join Caldwell to make up a strong group of 6 at the 1-3 spots and a much better overall group than they had a year ago with even more offensive punch. Inside is a major shift, and likely a direct reflection of Beard’s unhappiness with their defensive efforts. Cisse and Sharp were the 7-footers that played the 5 last year, but neither were all that productive averaging a combined 8 ppg and 8.5 rpg. They were oftentimes more of a liabilty than an asset, and in response Beard has gotten smaller and more athletic, bringing in undersized bigs who were big time scorers last year in Mikeal Brown-Jones, Malik Dia and Ja’Von Benson. That group paired with Jaemyn Brakefield at the 4 and 5 spots are incredibly talented but even more importantly are much more versatile defensively. Yes, they brought in John Bol the 7’2″ brother of Bol Bol but I would be shocked if he’s the main man at the 5, even with his shot blocking ability he’s pretty raw in other areas and while he may see minutes at the 5 I would expect them to play small primarily. If I understand Beard correctly then these moves make perfect sense and tell us they will be better defensively this year, and all of the ability to score it should mean even more improvement on that end, which together should bring on higher expectations.

Prediction:

As I mentioned the roster construction is a tell, and if you study Beard and what he’s done over his career it makes perfect sense. At Texas Tech he turned them into a top-20 defensive team, doing so with small lineups that ratcheted up the pressure, resulting in them also being top-20 at forcing turnovers, and by the way this applies to his lone season at Texas as well. Last year they were sub-100 in both, and while the smaller lineups has caused them to be not so great on the defensive glass, it was never as bad as the Rebel’s 362nd rank last year. So, not only were they playing two not so mobile 7-footers that limited their ability to extend the defense and switch 1-5, they also couldn’t rebound, so the bad was far outweighing the good. Both Dia and Brown-Jones played the 5 last year at their respective spots, and both remind you of former Beard “big men” like Santos-Silva, Holyfield, Odiase and Zach Smith who all played the 5 for Beard at just 6’8″ and helped him create top-20 defenses at Tech. Am I predicting this Ole Miss team to go from 141st to top-20? No. But to get inside the top-50 with all of this offensive talent makes them a very viable threat in this Conference and they should find their way into the tourney in year two with Beard. I would be shocked if they don’t at least make huge strides on that end and a .500 finish in the SEC should get them in. They are not in the elite group at the top of the Conference, but the margins in the middle from 6-10 are razor thin and the ceiling here is being in that 6th to 7th range in this Conference and a dangerous team in March. With Beard’s March history they could be a nightmare for a 1 or 2 seed to see in the 2nd round.

9.) Mississippi St (NR)

State of the Program:

Mississippi St had made just 1 tourney in 13 seasons prior to the arrival of Chris Jans, who has gotten them to back-to-back tourney’s in his 2 seasons here. That’s a success story, and while they haven’t won a game in either trip, to immediately get the ship turned around is very impressive. Jans has a solid core of guys back from last year’s group and hit the transfer portal hard to fill in the gaps. Leading the way probably the most surprising FR from a year ago in Josh Hubbard, who was ranked 145th last year and averaged 17 ppg, somewhat quietly. He will be joined by transfers Claudell Harris, Riley Kugel and RJ Melendez who should all get run at the 2-3 spots, with Harris being the best shooter of the 3 and most likely starter. Kanye Clary is the other transfer addition in the backcourt, but is somewhat curious, as he is essentially a 2nd Josh Hubbard, below 6 ft but a very capable scorer on offense. My concern is does Jans plan to play 2 guys below 6 ft tall at the same time? He did play Hubbard at the off guard spot last year but had 6’2″ Dashawn Davis playing the point in that scenario. It’s probably not a huge deal but Hubbard and Clary are the best scorers on the roster and we should see them, at 5’10” and 5’11”, together in the backcourt at times which could make for some disadvantages defensively. Cam Matthews and KeShawn Murphy are back in the frontcourt, but the losses of Tolu Smith and Jimmy Bell have left a massive hole inside. Jans did get a promising prospect in the portal in Michael Nwoko, who was a 4 star prospect last year and played only 10 mpg behind Omier in Miami last year. He did have strong rebounding % numbers though so with more time could develop into something solid here. Outside of him is just more inexperience with Jeremy Foumena transfering in after a limited FR campaign at Rhode Island and Gai Chol who’s back after barely playing a year ago. If I was a betting man I would say Murphy, Matthews and Melendez will start at the 3-5 in a small lineup, but there is certainly an opening and plenty of young talent to try and fill it, they’re just all very inexperienced.

Prediction:

I’m having a hard time pegging this roster, as the transfers coming in are a bit different than what the team has looked like in the past. With Jeffries, Matthews and Smith inside they were a force on the offensive glass (top-25 last 2 seasons), which helped to make up for their inability to knock down shots. It seems like Jans has been willing to sacrifice some of the might inside to improve offensively, which we saw last year as they went from 176th to 73rd offensively. That’s a great improvement, but they conversely dipped from 9th to 22nd defensively. Overall that’s a trade you would make of course, but I think that is going to be an even more dramatic shift this year, with maybe even an inverse in their strengths. They have added quite a bit of shooting and offensive talent, mostly with Clary and Harris, but even Kugel and Melendez have promise. The frontcourt looks to be the new weakness without Smith and Bell anchoring the 5 spot, and their ability to dominate the glass may take a major hit if it’s all on Murphy and Matthews. However, one of the their strengths defensively has been to pressure the ball and force TO’s, which they could be more effective at with that versatile frontcourt that can switch/trap and make things uncomfortable. You see my struggle, there’s some areas that were strengths that could become weaknesses, some weaknesses that could become strengths, which ultimately leaves me with a massive ?. Overall, I actually think this is a slightly weaker team than last year due to the losses in physicality, even with a slight improvement shooting the ball. They don’t have the go-to post presence with Smith gone either so the scoring will be fully on the guards as well. I think they still have a shot to be a tourney team, but it could be an overall dip from last year’s team, especially with the SEC getting better all around them.

10.) Florida (NR)

State of the Program:

Last year was a strong step forward in year two for Todd Golden and this program as they went from 16-17 overall to 24-12 and a 7 seed in the tourney. They lost in R1 but still it was a much needed improvement and they’ll look to continue that positive momentum this year. Obviously, with me having them 10th in the league I don’t see that continuing, and that’s not really a slight toward Golden as a coach but more as a recruiter of talent. They lost a lot, with two key pieces in Pullin and Samuel exiting they have massive gaps to fill. Alijah Martin comes in from FAU to join Clayton Jr and Richard, and while he is talented that is a downgrade in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong Clayton and Richard are very solid, but for a team that struggled to defend and relied on that backcourt to outscore teams a downgrade there is concerning. Behind them they’ll be thin as well with Denzel Aberdeen back after playing sparingly along with FR Isaiah Brown. Brown is a physical athlete that gets downhill and finishes well but his jumper needs to develop before he’s a major factor offensively. Now we turn to the frontcourt, where centerpiece Tyrese Samuel who averaged 14 and 7 is gone, as well as key reserve Micah Handlogten to injury. To replace that production Golden brought in 6’9″ Sam Alexis from Chattanooga, who was very productive as a rebounder on both ends and as a shot blocker. However, that is going to be quite the adjustment going from SoCon play to the SEC so I’m not sure you can expect the exact same production, especially with the increase in athletes he’s facing. The other is Wazzu transfer Rueben Chinyelu, who has a similar skillset as he was a monster on the boards when he was in the game as his OREB % would have been top-10 had he qualified minutes wise. Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon are also back after playing quite a bit as FR, which gives them a group of 4 guys inside that all have much to prove but certainly aren’t guaranteed to make up for the loss in production. The one way this goes far better than I’m seeing is if the European transfers come in and are dominant. I can’t find hardly anything on big man Mikic so feel free to fill me in if he’s Jokic but I would guess that means he wasn’t highly sought after. The guard Klavzar has a good outside shot but I’m not convinced he’s ready physically to come in and be a major impact as a PG, but again in a world where I’m wrong on the Gators he would likely be a major factor.

Prediction:

Overall I still think Florida is going to be competitive as they have athletic bigs that can rebound which was huge for them last year as they were top-10 in offensive rebounding. They also have one of the best guards in the SEC in Walter Clayton Jr. Having them 10th feels like I’m writing them off, but this year in the SEC I legitimately think there are 10 teams that could conceivably get in the dance. The worry is defense, which was the achilles heel for what was a very good team last year that just lost too many games where they couldn’t get stops. They were honestly pretty bad on that end all around. They didn’t force TO’s (318th), fouled a ton (245th) and surprisingly struggled to finish possessions with a defensive rebound (168th) despite being so good on the offensive glass. They did play at the 17th fastest pace, but as we’ve spoken on with other fast paced teams that doesn’t mean you HAVE to give up a lot of points. It was no more apparent than their tourney game with Colorado in which they scored 100 points but gave up 102…in regulation. They lost 2 of their 3 leading scorers as well, so it’s no guarantee that they return as a top-15 offensive team either. Again, if the Europeans come in and have an impact that I’m not anticipating then maybe they’re better, but with all of this talent in this league and you’re a team that struggles to defend you’re going to have a hard time winning games. They have a pretty easy non-con schedule so they may be riding high coming in, but I do not expect them to be winning many games against the top-5 or so teams in the Conference. There will be several teams at the bottom that are beatable, but games like Tennessee/Texas at home in the first half of January will be massive in determining if this group can go dancing again.

11.) Missouri (NR)

State of the Program:

Before you say it yes I know Mizzou was 0-18 in SEC play a year ago, but there is a lot to work with here roster wise. Dennis Gates went from very high to very low in his 2 seasons thus far, getting the Tigers to the dance and securing their first tourney win since 2010 in year 1, all the way down to an 0-18 conference record. He is likely coaching for his job now as that kind of performance in a power conference is almost an auto hot-seat nomination. I mean, they finished 1-22 he can’t feel comfortable. In response he has LOADED up on talent, adding 6 transfers and 5 freshman to what already is a group of 5 returning. Not sure how he manages 16 guys, would think there’s a couple of redshirts here but still with that many guys surely he can find a group of 8-10 he can rely on to play hard night in and night out. He landed a couple huge mid-major scorers with Marques Warrick and Jacob Crews likely to come in, start and be a focal point of this year’s team. Tony Perkins is no slouch either, and he’s done it in the Big Ten and brings a level of physicality they did not have a year ago. Most importantly they all shot 40% or better from 3 last year which for a team ranked 277th in 3 point % that is a major upgrade. They also return guards Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill who may be forced to come off the bench this year but honestly that is where they probably should be if you want to be competitive. They may even find themselves riding the bench if the FR prove themselves, with the 6’5″ Annor Boateng the most likely to find the rotation. He is a big, strong guard that excels at getting downhill and finishing through contact. His jumper looks like it can develop into being a weapon but he may not be consistent early on. He seems like he’ll be too impactful to leave out of the rotation and could play the 2 or 3. The other wing that could come right in and play is Marcus Allen, who has a longer frame is more of wing than guard, with the ability to play the small ball 4 with his athleticism and length, similar to the likely starting 4 here Mark Mitchell. Next to Mitchell is a huge question mark, with 2 FR 7-footers incoming and Josh Gray transferring in after being a backup at S. Carolina. The two FR are wildy different, with Marshall being an absolute UNIT at 330 pounds, but he’s 2 inches shorter than Burns who is only around 200 pounds. No idea who wins playing time here but there’s a lot to work with and a lot of varying abilities which is promising.

Prediction:

We have seen Gates turn in two wildly different seasons with Mizzou so predicting how this will go is very difficult I’ll just be honest. What I can say is on paper there is more talent here than there was last year, specifically offensive talent. They were top-10 in offensive efficiency in year 1 under gates, but fell all the way to 136th, mostly due to their shooting woes falling from 17th to 202nd in effective FG%. Bringing in 3 guys who should start that shot 40%+ from 3 last year is certainly a step forward, and given the roster construction I would anticipate those being the 3 leading scorers here. They also added a ton of length and girth inside that they didn’t have last year, and frankly the frontcourt in general was just a tragedy a year ago. They were pathetic on the glass – 358th defensive rebounding and 256th offensive rebounding and while they blocked shots decently well they still were just 219th in 2 point % defense. Mitchell and Crews are massive upgrades both defensively and on the glass at the 3 and 4 spots, and the trio of new 5 men should produce at least 1 guy who can go get Gates some rebounds. That group should be a major step up in those two areas, which were as bad as it gets last year in major conference basketball. As rosy as all of this sounds it’s still not like I’m saying they are going to be world beaters, but when you go through a 1-22 stretch you absolutely need upgrading in order to even be slightly competitive. That’s my argument here, they should win 6-8 games in the SEC this year with all of this talent coming in. It may be hard for Gates to hold on to the locker room with so many mouths to feed but if he can get these guys to gel and play hard together their ceiling could be to be in the bubble conversation come February. I’m not predicting them to get into the tourney but they certainly aren’t going to be the punching bag they were last year.

12.) LSU (NR)

State of the Program:

Matt McMahon inherited a disaster left behind by Will Wade’s tumultuous departure, but after a tough year 1 (2-16 in SEC) they took a major step forward going 9-9 last year including a home win over Kentucky. It wasn’t always pretty but they did some good things in what was an overall good season for the program all things considered. There were several major weaknesses that stand out which were devastating as they killed their ability to win the possession battle. They didn’t take care of the ball (287th in TO%) and they couldn’t get a defensive rebound (294th). Much of the backcourt is gone which may be some addition by subtraction, especially considering McMahon was able to land a stud of a PG in Jordan Sears. He averaged over 20 ppg and they’ll hope he can come in and run the show alongside another transfer in Cam Carter. There’s several other options though to fill in the 2 and 3 spots, including Tyrell Ward and Mike Williams who both started at times a year ago. There’s also a very talented FR coming in as 6’5″ Vyctorius Miller is definitely going to push these guys for playing time. He is a good athlete for his size but his major weapon is his jumper as he is one of the better shooters in the class. The other FR guard coming in is Curtis Givens who may find some time behind Sears, although Williams played the point at times last year as well. Givens isn’t the most explosive athlete but has good feel and a good jump shot as well, giving you some Elliot Cadeau vibes. The frontcourt should be a bit smaller but more athletic with a trio of returning guys in Jalen Reed, Derek Fountain and Damion Collins making a good trio at the 4 and 5 spots. The other factor there should be FR Robert Miller III, who is a Jaren Jackson Jr style stretch 4 as he’s long and lanky with good quickness and can stretch out and knock down 3’s. I have no doubt he’ll find time with his ability and that gives them enough depth inside to have a chance after losing both starting 5 men. Overall there is more offensive punch here than a year ago but I’m not convinced this frontcourt is going to improve like they need to on the glass.

Prediction:

Overall there is more offensive punch here than a year ago but I’m not convinced this frontcourt is going to improve like they need to on the glass. The turnovers should improve with Sears in there to hold things down as a true PG that can also really score it. The group of Carter/Williams/Reed/Miller should be fine but nothing special, and that’s where the concerns start to come in. It is seemingly going to be all on this mid-major transfer Sears to create and make things happen in the halfcourt. That group of secondary guards is not scary by any means, but the good news is they can knock down shots. The frontcourt is also not going to be guys you can get it to on the block and watch go to work. They are more of slashers and bangers inside, needing to likely play in ball screen situations and catch lobs on a roll to be effective scorers. That’s why I think Miller could be a factor as he can stretch out and shoot it in pick and pop or kick out scenarios. That still all rides on Sears being a playmaker in ball screen situations, which is what I would expect to see a lot of. They also are relying essentially on the same group of forwards to somehow improve their 294th ranking on the defensive glass, which is a massive issue as winning the possession battle is critical if you want to win consistently. Overall I just don’t think the additions will be enough to both make up for what was lost and fix some of the major issues they had a year ago. Maybe the guys who are returning will develop and get much better, but something like rebounding is more of an effort and attitude problem than it is an ability you can develop. I suspect this LSU team misses the tourney once again, unless Sears comes in and looks like Bama’s Mark Sears, which I don’t see happening.

13.) Oklahoma (NR)

State of the Program:

The Porter Moser era at Oklahoma has largely been a disappointment, as they’ve now missed 3 straight tourney’s after reaching 8 out of 9 with Lon Kruger. They now enter the SEC hoping for some reprieve on the hoops side, but this year in basketball they might be in just as tough a situation. This is nearly a complete rebuild, even with 2 starters back when you only return 3 guys you’re basically creating a new team. Yes Sam Godwin and Luke Norweather are back after locking down the 5 spot last year, albeit without much production, and Jalon Moore will surely start again. Beyond them it’s all fresh meat and frankly it’s not all that inspiring compared to the other rebuilds the SEC has to offer. Duke Miles should come in and run the point, and Kobe Elvis is a very capable reserve there as well. They both are elevating the level of competition though so it remains to be seen how well they adjust. Brycen Goodine may be the most exciting, as he was a high volume scorer and shot an absurd 47% from 3, and while he is elevating in terms of competition shooting often translates better than playmaking and getting to the rim as a guard. Jadon Jones is another mid-major guard coming in, but he’ll likely be surpassed by Glenn Taylor who was just a role player last year but in year’s prior was a big time scorer at Oregon St. That group of 5 figures to hold down the 1-3 spots. Coming in to help Godwin and Norweather is Mohamed Wague who is at his 3rd stop in 3 years and struggled to hold onto a role with Bama last year. All in all it’s not an overly impressive group on paper, and while I do think Moser is a good coach he has his hands full once again.

Prediction:

Moser’s teams always play hard and are usually disciplined on defense. The issue has consistently been scoring the ball and more specifically knocking down outside shots. This will be especially important this year as they really don’t have an offensive threat inside, so the offense is going to be totally on the backcourt. The percentages tell you they should be better than they’ve ever been shooting from outside, but all they have to do is crack the top-100 in 3 point % to do that. Moser has always been a coach that wants to take the air out of the ball and play at a snails pace, and while that can be effective, if you don’t have guys that can knock down shots or a dominant big to play through it gets difficult. Shooting also isn’t just an on paper thing, it becomes very difficult to shoot at a high percentage if you can’t generate open looks. That seems to be a major issue, which you can see with guys like McCollum and Uzan last year who shot 31% and 29% from 3 respectively after averaging 36% and 41% prior. They were forced to jack up bad shots because as a team they couldn’t generate good looks in the halfcourt, and they certainly weren’t getting out in transition to get good looks either. I don’t see those issues changing, so while these newcomers have good percentages it could be a struggle once again if things don’t improve in the halfcourt. I predict another missed tourney and a potential firing of Moser after yet another disappointing year. This is a program that Kelvin Sampson and Lon Kruger had as perennial contenders, so I don’t see 4 straight missed tourney’s as being good enough.

14.) S. Carolina (NR)

State of the Program:

South Carolina had to be the surprise of the season last year, going from 4-14 in the SEC to 13-5 and getting to the NCAA tourney for the first time since Frank Martin led them to the Final 4 in 2017. It didn’t go quite as well as it did in 2017, but it was still a major step forward for Lamont Paris as he tries and cement himself as the HC of the future here. With all of that said it might seem a bit disrespectful to have them this low, but frankly the amount of talent that left the team compared to what is incoming is stark. 3 of their 4 leading scorers are gone, with only Collin Murray-Boyles back as a double figure scorer. Now, he does have All-Conference breakout potential this year as he was starting dominate down the stretch, but the drop off in guard play might be too significant for that to matter. They lost Meechie and Cooper and brought in just Jamarii Thomas from Norfolk St and a FR to replace them. Thomas was very productive let’s not get it twisted, but he was also inefficient and will now be tasked with creating and controlling this offense that under Paris is going to take the air out of the ball. Cam Scott is the FR likely to come in and make an impact as he’s a smooth customer, reminding you of a Paul George stylistically as he can really shoot it and also has the ability to get his own shot and has the length and athleticism to be a problem in transition and as a defender. Given this roster I think he comes right in and starts alongside Thomas with Myles Stute back and playing the 3. Murray-Boyles at the 4 leaves the 5 spot that BJ Mack and Josh Gray have vacated. On the roster you have Nick Pringle from Bama who has had issues with his motor but in big games has produced including a 16 and 11 game in the Elite 8 last year. That isn’t the norm though and while he may start who knows how it’ll go. 7 footer Jordan Butler comes in with little experience but was a top-100 recruit last year and Zach Davis is back and at 6’8″ he could play the 4 in a small ball lineup next to Murray-Boyles. What I’m getting at with all of this is the questions are numerous outside of Murray-Boyles being very good.

Prediction:

I do not expect a repeat of last year win total wise, as even with the 13 SEC wins last year the schedule was friendly and Kenpom was never all that high on the Gamecocks as they finished just 54th there. That is probably a better reflection of who they were, even though they beat Tennessee one Tuesday night last year and stamped themselves as a tourney team. I would expect regression back to who they are statistically, and with a few more difficult non-con games and a deeper SEC this year it’s going to be tough sledding. At the end of the day I think they lost more than they added and their extremely slow pace and not so great defensive numbers meant they played a ton of close games regardless of who they were playing. That contributed to the bad statistical rankings and with a little bad luck could send this season into a spiral if it continues. I understand the excitement with Murray-Boyles, and who knows maybe Nick Pringle has a breakout year and plays consistently well and they dominate together inside. Maybe this FR comes in and can score 12-15 ppg and replace what was lost with Meechie and maybe Thomas comes in and replaces Cooper at the point and can control the offense and knock down shots just like he could. If everything goes right maybe they’re in the bubble conversation come February, but that’s far too many question marks for me to hitch my wagon to this horse.

15.) Georgia (NR)

State of the Program:

Mike White enters year 3 in a difficult rebuild, but has some positive momentum when you start to dig deep. While they went just 6-12 in SEC play in both years they took a major step forward analytically last year, jumping from 154th to 84th overall per Kenpom. They are getting better but the Conference is also getting better, and adding teams like Texas and Oklahoma only adds to the challenge. The fantastic news is White is bringing in his guys and getting them to stick around, as the 3 top-100 recruits he got last year are all back after contributing as FR. Silas Demary definitely had the biggest impact starting all but 1 game as a true FR, but both Cain and James started at times and played more and more down the stretch. That would have to give you some hope if you’re a Georgia basketball fan, of which there are probably only few. More hope comes via the transfer portal, with Dakota Laffew and De’Shayne Montgomery coming over from Mount St. Mary’s. They were the two best players on the team, and Montgomery was a FR, so that’s a lot of potential there especially with how they shot the ball. They did however struggle with TO’s contributing to MSM’s 342nd TO rate, so that’s concerning with an elevation in competition. He also brought in Vandy transfer Tyrin Lawrence to throw in the mix, which gives them a solid but not spectacular group of 5 guys to play the 1-3 spots. The frontcourt is definitely looking like the weak spot though, with two less than spectacular transfers coming in and then 2 FR. Abson and Godfrey are not long term solutions but will help give depth, and Godfrey could take a step forward with more of an opportunity after being buried on Clemson behind a solid group. The FR are exciting guys for the future, with 5-star Asa Newell leading the way as a slashing forward that uses his length and athleticism to be a menace on the boards and when he gets it in position he attacks the rim and with his bounce finishes strong above the rim. As a 5 man Somto Cyril is a great athlete with long arms that help him rebound and block shots at an elite level. He won’t add much offense but will finish strong if he gets setup within 10 feet. Dylan James is back after playing the 4 as a FR as well, so there’s 5 guys here looking for time at the 4-5 spots inside. That’s a group of 10 that is young, with just 2 Seniors and 6 FR/SO White will look to develop this core into something that can really compete a year from now.

Prediction:

Overall with a Conference this deep I do not expect big things from Georgia with such a young team. I do think White is a very good coach and is right at the beginning of potentially building something here. If he’s able to get some traction and get these young guys to buy in and stick around for next year then I would be a lot higher on that group of 8 guys coming back next year with maybe a transfer or two to bring some punch. The way they exceed my expectations would be to be an even better defensive team than they were a year ago, as they improved to 58th from 132nd, so another big jump there could make them pesky. That’s such a tall task though for a group of young guys to play at that high of a level for the first time though, and while the FR have rim protection potential, it takes a lot more communication wise to defend at a high level than being able to block a shot here and there. Again, there should be some hope for the future with White as he’s starting to get some traction, I’m more looking at what happens to the roster after the season, as the real traction will come with getting these guys to stick around to help him truly build something competitive. The breakthrough won’t happen this year in my opinion, but it might be right around the corner.

16.) Vanderbilt (NR)

State of the Program:

This Vandy program is in a complete free fall, mostly thanks to hiring and now firing Jerry Stackhouse after 4 miserable seasons. They bring in JMU HC Mark Byington who at the very least enters the program with a history of building a program into a contender. This is a complete and total rebuild essentially, with just 2 guys coming back who both barely played a year ago and 10 transfers. The transfers will play all the minutes, with guys like Jason Edwards and AJ Hoggard leading the way. I’m not going to sit here and breakdown every transfer and pretend like this group has a chance to be relevant in any way. I’m not saying Byington can’t turn Vandy into a team to worry about at some point, but in year 1 with this caliber of class incoming (ranked 16th out of 16 in the SEC and 99th overall by On3) this is as big a mountain to climb as exists in major college basketball right now.

Prediction:

This was as easy a decision to put Vandy last as it was to put Alabama 1st for me. There’s an enormous amount of question marks here, especially in the frontcourt. The only thing we know for sure is that Byington always has his teams playing a fast tempo, and with guys like Hoggard and Huffman running the show as distributors they should be able to play somewhat effectively out in transition. They have 7 guys on the roster that shot 35% or less from though, so I don’t expect shot making to be a strength. They also have a glaring lack of size inside, with just 6’9″ Wright and 6’8″ Carey and Roberts to fill out the 4 and 5 spots. Again, they can play fast and be versatile defensively with that lineup but the glass will likely be a major weakness. Overall, the lack of talent here just stands out when you’re looking a power conference teams across the country, with even DePaul and Chris Holtmann having a more promising roster than this. I do not expect many wins here, and if you’re an SEC team you will only be scared of playing Vandy because if you somehow lose it’ll be a stain on your resume. Hopefully there’s something positive for Byington to hold on to so he can keep some guys around and attract more talent next year.

Pre-Season Prediction:

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1.) UConn (#7)

State of the Program:

What can you really say, Dan Hurley has won back-to-back championships and has UConn on the mountaintop right now in college basketball. He once again brings back a deep group from his championship roster and has plugged a few holes that left behind with a strong combo of FR and transfers. He seems to be doing everything the right way, demanding a ton from his guys, but also getting them to buy in and stay and wait for their turn. Now, winning at the level they have certainly helps accomplish that, but it’s still a rare sight in this day and age to see only 1 guy transfer out of a program. They did lose 4 starters though, and while the return of Alex Karaban is huge, there’s a lot of production that the young guys and newcomers are going to have to replace. The new PG and biggest addition is going to be Aiden Mahaney, who was more of a scoring option for St. Mary’s than a true PG, but I think he has the ability to come in and run the show and be more of a distributor and see his efficiency rise with the rise in talent around him. Returnees Diarra and Ball should both be mainstays in the backcourt as well, but don’t expect Ahmad Nowell to be buried behind these guys for too long. He’s a junkyard dog that’s built like a football player and as a PG can do a little bit of everything. I would imagine Hurley will fall in love with his physicality and play style, but we’ll see how much trust he earns as a PG in this system. The other impact FR figures to be sharpshooting wing Liam McNeeley, who profiles as a Klay Thompson style marksman from outside, and while he has a little bounce and good size, I would expect him to mostly be a flamethrower from 3 at the 3 spot. He will battle SO Jaylin Stewart and fellow FR Isaiah Abraham for minutes there, but all 3 could have a role as they could also slide to the 4 at their size behind Karaban. The other transfer is big man Tarris Reed who figures to help shore up the 5 spot along with Samson Johnson who returns after backing up Clingan a year ago. Neither of those guys is going to be the force that Clingan was but together they should produce at the 5. That’s an uber talented group of 10, so needless to say, Hurley has plenty to work with as he tries the impossible, the 3-peat.

Prediction:

I’m not going to doubt Hurley like I did last year, he has firmly established himself as one of if not the premier coach in the country. Even though they lost 4 starters the talent on the roster is still there, and with his schematic ability you know they’ll be in a good place to succeed. The addition of Mahaney strengthens the backcourt, but there still is quite a bit of production to replace with both Spencer and Newton gone. I’m not sure Diarra is ready to jump up and be a double digit scorer, but McNeeley offers that with his shooting ability and Ball was a top-50 recruit that has that ability. I have two main concerns that kept them in the lower half of the top-10, who playmakes in the halfcourt and how they defend the paint without Clingan. Johnson and Reed and both long, but they blocked shots at half the rate Clingan did, and they lost some athleticism on the perimeter with Mahaney and McNeeley coming in. I wonder how far that top-5 defense will fall without the big man and without guys like Castle, Newton and Spencer wreaking havoc on the perimeter. What I don’t doubt is that with shooters like Karaban, Mahaney and McNeeley and Hurley’s mind for halfcourt offense they will be just fine on that end. Just monitor early how well they are defending, as that looks like the area, if any, they could take a decent sized step back. They should still be up at the top of the Conference, and with this recent history I expect them to enter March with a chance at another run and we hear the words 3-peat 9 billion times on CBS.

2.) Creighton (#11)

State of the Program:

It took Greg McDermott 11 seasons to get out of the 1st weekend of the dance here at Creighton but he’s now done so in 3 of the last 4 seasons and has this program rolling. They haven’t been winning the regular season conference title but they have been right up there as one of the best teams year over year in this conference. This year should be no different, even with stars Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman gone, the return of big man Ryan Kalkbrenner for yet another season means they’re primed for another great year. PG Steven Ashworth is also back to run the show and to replace the scoring wings that left McDermott headed to the transfer portal, landing Pop Isaacs and Jamiya Neal. Both of these guys were good scoring options at their previous stops but were rather inefficient as shooters, especially Isaacs who shot just 35% overall from the field. Hopefully with the added talent around them the shooting % will rise, or else Creighton as a team is going to take a major step back as those are all they really have in terms of replacing Alexander and Scheierman. FR guard Larry Johnson is the other option, but he’s pretty raw offensively outside of his highlight reel dunking ability, but that athleticism of course gives him high potential to develop into a dangerous player. The other FR that could have an immediate role is Jackson McAndrew, who profiles as a stretch 4 that would fit well next to Kalkbrenner. He probably needs to develop physically to not get pushed around, but the options at the 4 are Mason Miller, Jasen Green or Isaac Traudt, who haven’t proven to be super productive so the opportunity to play is there. Overall there’s still top-15 talent on this roster, but they have to prove it more this year with the transfers vs the returning talent they had last year. It may take time to click, but with Kalkbrenner inside and the backcourt of Ashworth/Isaacs/Neal it’s obvious why expectations remain high despite the losses.

Prediction:

I think as the season wears on Creighton is going to get better and better and Isaacs and Neal settle in. Isaacs can be more of a playmaker for others and not have to jack up bad shots like he did with Texas Tech, which will help his shooting numbers improve and allow guys like Ashworth, Miller and Traudt to hit open outside shots. Overall they probably take a step back offensively though, as Scheierman and Alexander were terrific in the halfcourt as scorers and the replacements Neal and Isaacs are just not quite as good. Kalkbrenner being a rim protector inside should continue to make them a top-25 or better team defensively though. They pressure outside to funnel everything into Kalkbrenner who is an elite shot blocker and rarely fouls. That should continue, and even with a slight dip in efficiency offensively I still think an offense with shooters around a big man with this efficiency inside is still top-25 ish good. That creates what should be another top team in the Conference and a contender nationally, especially if Isaacs leans more into creating for his teammates, as I believe a 2 man game with Isaacs and Kalkbrenner could be very difficult to stop with shooters surrounding them. Miller and Traudt need to take more shots as well, as anyone shooting that far north of 40% from 3 need more looks and need to let it fire when they get them. I have a ton of respect for McDermott and truly think by the time Big East play rolls around this group will be playing cohesively and have the best shot of anyone in this Conference to try and take down UConn. The guard play is the biggest question mark, but having a guy like Kalkbrenner inside makes it a lot easier on those guys, so I expect big things from the transfers and subsequently still have high expecations for this group. Top-15 and getting to the 2nd weekend in March should be the expectation.

3.) Marquette (#17)

State of the Program:

I love what Shaka Smart is doing at Marquette, as the old school approach of recruiting and helping develop guys who you then go win with at a high level is disappearing before our eyes. Marquette is just 1 of 2 major conference programs to not bring in a transfer, and joins UConn as the only Big East teams to not lose a player to the portal. Now I’m not wholly against using the portal to improve your team, especially if you have major holes, but there’s something to be said for the cohesion that this brings and the advantage that can give you in today’s college basketball world. It also helps avoid losing guys to the portal, as that often occurs when guys don’t see a role for them after a year or two of sitting because they keep getting passed up by transfers coming in. It is obvious this is the type of situation Smart thrives in, as he can treat it more like VCU than Texas, where he could get more talented FR but they would leave much quicker. Shaka has these guys believing in their process, waiting for their opportunity and is honoring that by allowing these younger guys the opportunity to fill the void left behind by Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro. That’s a massive void however, and while I admire the process and think log term it’s a positive, they have quite a task ahead of them trying to replace those guys. The good news is Kam Jones is back to lead the way, along with other vets David Joplin and Stevie Mitchell. Jones and Mitchell will be joined by a solid group of younger guys in the backcourt with guys like Chase Ross, Tre Norman and Sean Jones all showing promise so far in their young careers. Fairly obvious the backcourt will be fine even with the loss of Kolek, but the frontcourt is where things could get dicey without Ighodaro. Ben Gold is the obvious plug in as the 5, but he’s a bit different than Oso as he’s not quite the rim protector or rebounder but can stretch the floor as a knockdown shooter. Joplin will be the 4, but behind those guys is a void with a bunch of unproven youth. Damarius Owens is a lanky wing who is a good athlete but will probably need some time to develop. It’s likely Royce Parham or Al Amadou backs up Ben Gold, and both are lanky bigs with good athleticism so one of them should emerge as the backup and produce.

Prediction:

I look for the process to continue to take place under Smart here, as he’s done a great job since arriving at developing his guys and he has a star to build around in Kam Jones. Jones should be right there with Kalkbrenner battling for Big East POY, and with a deep group of talent around him I expect another good season here. The one worry you have is obviously on the glass as it could be even more of an issue than it was a year ago (285th OReb, 270th DReb). So with that said there’s probably a step back defensively without that paint presence. On the other end though Gold is going to open the floor up a ton for these guards being able to play 5 out and drive and kick, which could be a bonus to help level out the loss of Kolek. They went 3-3 without Kolek a year ago, but maybe more important to look at was Jones and his increased level of play. He scored 30+ multiple times and nearly doubled his assist numbers, and to be totally fair 2 of the 3 losses were to UConn and the other was @ Creighton, so really they played pretty well without Kolek. There’s a pretty clear top-3 here and while UConn and Creighton look good there’s enough question marks to see a world where Marquette can win the league. Jones can be that good, and if they can find some production around him consistently this team could be very very dangerous. Don’t sleep on Marquette is all I’m saying, and respect to Smart for building a program the old school way.

4.) Xavier (#21)

State of the Program:

Well we head from one extreme to the other as we move from Marquette to Xavier, going from a team with zero transfers and only FR entering the program to zero FR and only transfers coming in. Sean Miller has gone all in on reloading year to year in the transfer portal, and after missing the tourney last year you have to wonder how the up and down nature of that strategy will fair over the long term. The good news is he gets Zach Freemantle back after missing all last season, and Dayvion McKnight is back to lead the offense at the point. With those two to build around you start looking at the portal guys and there are some very solid mid-major transfers that have a chance to have major roles here. Ryan Conwell is a perfect fit as a scorer that shot at an elite level from 3, and right with him is Dante Maddox from Toledo as both were 40%+ from 3 a year ago. Marcus Foster can also really score, and is a little bigger so he could even play a small 3 if they need, but he has been much more inefficient so I would think he falls to 4th on the guard list and that’s not even mentioning now SO Trey Green who had moments last year. Cam’Ron Fletcher appears at another school as the former top-50 prospect lands at his 3rd destination for his 5th season, and while he’s never really grown much he can contribute at the 3 if Miller needs to go bigger there. Inside it’s pretty straightforward with 4 guys who can play the 4/5, with Freemantle leading the way and Jerome Hunter back as a former starter for Miller at the 4. The transfers are interesting though, as John Hugley was a big time player for Pitt back in 2022 averaging nearly 15 and 8. Traore himself averaged a double double last year so there’s tremendous depth there and iron sharpens iron so I expect a strong unit with all 4 guys contributing.

Prediction:

Overall Miller has 12 guys to try and sort out a 9 or 10 man rotation which obviously gives him tremendous depth and flexibility. I don’t question at all who they are going to be, as Miller loves to play fast (31st/33rd tempo last 2 years) and share the ball (top-20 a/fgm). They were pretty inefficient shooting the ball last year and he’ll hope the guard additions help that out, along with the return of Freemantle as someone who they can play through inside. The x-factor is defense, and they’ve improved on that end year over year with Miller, so ultimately we’ll see how well all of these transfers can come together and play team defense. I don’t think they’ll have any problem offensively with all of this guard talent and the big inside, the potential is as high as it’s been. If Freemantle is fully healthy they have an all-conference caliber guy in him as well as with McKnight. I don’t expect them to be contending with the top 3, but with all of this talent I think they have the best shot of the 2nd tier in this conference to be a tourney team. They feel like that 7-10 seed type of team we saw Penn St be a couple years ago with Micah Shrewsberry. A bunch of perimeter guys that can score it and are an electric team to watch because they can drop 80-90 points every game, but just not enough star power and physicality to beat the elite teams. Fun and frisky but ultimately a tourney berth and maybe a round 1 victory would be a success.

5.) Providence (NR)

State of the Program:

I absolutely loved what Kim English did with Providence last year, and while they missed the tourney, the fact they were a bubble team after losing leading scorer Bryce Hopkins midway through the season was very impressive. He came right in and established a culture there and you could see it night in and night out. They were going to grind you down, play harder than you and defend at a high level. They were top-20 defensively, but ultimately just couldn’t score enough without Hopkins. He is back now, and with him are a group of underclassman from a year ago who look to grow under English and also an influx of talent via the transfer portal. Returnee Jayden Pierre is back to run the point after showing a lot of potential in his SO campaign. He’ll battle transfer Bensley Joseph for time there, but after last year I’d expect him to start over Joseph. The 2 and 3 spot will be very deep, with Floyd and Barron back after double digit starts last year and Cardet and Abdur-Rahim transferring in to battle for time. I like Barron to remain in the rotation, as he shot it well from outside and is a physical wing really that can play the 2/3/4 and is versatile defensively. Cardet is a big time scorer and probably comes in as the replacement for Devin Carter, although with Hopkins to play through they don’t need the heroism of Carter this season really. Abdur-Rahim can play either the 3 or 4 as well at 6’7″ so he should certainly play quite a bit as he can score it, even if it’s as a reserve Hopkins and Cardet will need spelled. That leaves the 5 spot, and that’s the weakness of the roster. Oduro was so pivotal for them a year ago but he’s gone, and the replacements are not as proven, although they do have potential. The transfer from St. Joe’s Essandoko is the likely starter, but the 7 footer has only played 25 games in college. He did however make 14 3’s at 37% so that’s intriguing at his size, and he can block shots and rebound well as well. His final game of the season interestingly was an OT loss to Seton Hall in which he had 14 and 8 so proven against the Big East in at least 1 game. The FR Oswin Erhunmwunse is the other option, but he’s young after reclassifying so I would expect him to just be a backup to start. He has elite athleticism at the position, but isn’t going to give much offense unless he’s cutting to or catching it at the rim. He’s raw but has a ton of potential due to his length and bounce, so remember the name for down the road. All in all this is an under the radar talented roster, and with English at the helm I have some excitement.

Prediction:

I fully expect them to play with the same attitude and intensity they did a year ago, and while some of the roster is gone, there’s enough of a group of holdovers that I think that culture sticks around. English is a fiery HC and that has rubbed off on the program which is something I love and can make up for a lack of talent, to a point. Hopkins being healthy and leading the way is huge but the depth of proven scorers is much better than a year ago. They were very bad offensively, just 125th in efficiency on that end, so while they played great defense and played super hard they just couldn’t knock down shots. They were 247th in 3 point shooting, so the additions to the backcourt, all guys who shot 35%+ a year ago make perfect sense. The backcourt will miss Carter, but overall the depth of talent is much better even if the top isn’t quite as good. All of this goes out the window if they aren’t a top defensive team again, but typically that end translates year to year as coaches like English demand that from their guys, and he has the depth to only play the guys willing to dig in and defend. For those reasons I think Providence should be right square in the bubble conversations come February, and with some better injury luck I like the Friars to get in and be in the top half of the Conference. They’re not going to be a championship team, but English has them headed in a good direction and a ticket to the dance would be a great step forward after last year.

6.) St. John’s (NR)

State of the Program:

The Rick Pitino era at St. John’s got off to a rocky start, and at one point they lost 8 of 10 in Big East play. However, they turned a corner to end the season, reeling off 5 in a row to end the season and winning 1 in the Big East tourney before they fell to UConn to end their season. I thought the on the floor product was worthy of being a tourney team but resume wise they just didn’t have enough. Pitino seems to have shifted his approach this year, going with a less is more approach, bringing in just 4 transfers after bringing in 10 last year. The two who should lead the show are Kadary Richmond and Deivon Smith who both have all-conference potential and will lead the way offensively. RJ Lewis came on strong later in the year and earned Pitino’s trust so I’m sure he’ll start alongside those two to start at least. Aaron Scott will also play a role as well, as both can slide to a small ball 4 at 6’7″ and Scott is a much better outside shooter so he certainly has a chance to start as well. Simeon Wilcher was a top-50 recruit a year ago and he and incoming FR Jaiden Glover are great athletes who both have potential to be solid players this year. Glover is a physical specimen and could play the 2 or 3 and shoots it better than Wilcher, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to come in and carve out a role. Inside the 7 foot transfer Iwuchukwu will battle Ejiofor to start inside but combined they should be a decent duo at that spot, although not major offensive contributors like Soriano was a year ago. All in all Pitino has a solid core here that is top heavy with Richmond and Smith, but there’s a decent enough chance that the role guys come together and they are competitive in this Conference.

Prediction:

I like the less is more approach here, as there are less mouths to feed and it shouldn’t be as deep into the season for the Johnnies to establish some lineup consistency and establish an identity. They have clear leaders in the backcourt, and have enough depth to have some battles for playing time at the other spots. I like Glover and Wilcher for the long term, but a guy like Scott could be critical in a small ball lineup to stretch out and hit shots. There’s flexibility, there’s size and shooting ability so there’s at least some hope that if things click right this group can have some success. They were not good defensively last year and I’m sure Pitino was unhappy with that, but that seems to be the nature with these rebuilding teams. Pitino has always liked his teams to get out and run so I don’t expect that to change, but his last 7 years at Louisville they were top-10 defensively, so if any major change is to occur it’s that he gets this year’s group to look much better on that end of the floor. He has the length and athleticism to make it happen, so even if there’s a slight dip offensively I wouldn’t be shocked to see them near the top-25 on D. If that happens and Richmond and Smith click as a backcourt duo there’s no reason they can’t be a tourney team and knock off the big boys in a rowdy Garden. It’s certainly not guaranteed, but give Pitino talent and he can do great things so I still set the bar at finding a way to get into the tourney, even though they fell short last year.

7.) Villanova (NR)

State of the Program:

Kyle Neptune turned in another disappointing season as the successor to Jay Wright after he lead the Wildcats to 17 out of 18 tourney’s before retiring. Obviously, the pressure on Neptune to get this train back on the tracks is as high as it’ll be, and I would think that another missed tourney gets him canned. So, what does he have to work with heading into a pivotal season? It’s uninspiring to say the least. The good news is big man Eric Dixon is back, but outside of him it’s just Jordan Longino back with significant experience. So after last year’s attempt to load up in the transfer portal with talented guys like Burton/Bamba/Hart and having more returning talent and it blowing up, he now has to try and portal his way to success again. He did pick up a trio of guards who should be able to come in and contribute, with Brooks/Poplar/Perkins all averaging 13+ ppg and all shooting it well from 3. Pairing those 3 with Longino you formulate a solid backcourt, but by no means star studded. Kris Parker at the wing is an interesting prospect after redshirting at Alabama he’ll try and get time at the 3/4 and he’s a very good athlete. The other factor there will be FR Matthew Hodge who has a little Sam Dekker in him and certainly is built physically to come in and contribute. The Fresno St transfer Boakye will fight to backup Dixon, but he’ll have strong competition with FR Josiah Moseley who has a lot of potential. He’s built like an undersized bruiser in the Collin Murray-Boyles mold but has guard skills that make him a potential stretch 4 man that can also punish smaller defenders on the block. There is some legitimate potential here on the roster but most of the roster outside of Dixon and Poplar have a lot to prove at this level.

Prediction:

Last year I was fooled by all the talent without recognizing the severe drop off here in coaching. Neptune does not seem to have it, and it’s usually pretty clear when someone does or doesn’t, see Kim English at Providence who had a much better season with much less talent. Now, we’re going to still be a little gracious and assume the group he brought in just didn’t fit or gel (that’s partly on him). Maybe he can get this year’s to play better together, but I still think talent wise they are lacking. Dixon is obviously good, but they are relying on La Salle transfer PG Jahmir Brooks to lead the show and be the main playmaker on offense. That’s worrisome, and while they have Dixon to play through inside he’s not much of a setup man out of the post so there’s a ton of pressure on Brooks or even Bulgarian FR Aleksandar Gavalyugov, who looks like he could excel operating in ball screen actions with Dixon. Still, there’s a ton of unanswered questions, and while they were top-15 defensively with all the talent leaving it could get even worse offensively than their 87th ranking a year ago. Ultimately, I don’t have a ton of hope for this roster, with a tourney berth being very much a success which is a major step backward for this program if that’s a goal as it used to be the standard. Neptune is one of the top candidates for early season firing, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the first major conference coach to get the axe this year.

8.) Seton Hall (NR)

State of the Program:

Seton Hall was one of a couple teams who I thought was playing tourney worthy ball at the end of last year but was snubbed out of the tourney. They went on to win the NIT to somewhat confirm that, but we enter this year with a mass exodus from last year’s roster, with just two guys back and a host of transfers coming in to try and replace what was. This is where we start to drop off in terms of roster talent in the Conference, as I would really be shocked if Holloway is able to get this roster anywhere near the bubble. He gets back starter Addae–Wusu and promising SO Isaiah Coleman off a good FR campaign in which he showed flashes. He did bring in some interesting prospects, including Ohio State’s Scotty Middleton and Providence guard Garwey Dual who were both top-50 recruits and have several years of eligibility left. In fact, all but 1 of these transfers has multiple years of eligibility remaining, so it looks like Holloway has the future in mind as he attempts to create some year over year stability if he can get these guys to buy in and stay on campus. That’s really the challenge for some of these smaller programs, as anybody that shows a little promise is going to be fielding lucrative offers from bigger schools in the offseason. He was able to sell the idea of playing time to guys like Middleton/Dual/Aligbe/Yalden, but what happens when that playing time leads to a breakout? Getting them to produce and have success while also sticking around for another year is the challenge.

Prediction:

It’s going to be a step back most likely for Seton Hall this year, but they will still have winnable games with Georgetown and DePaul in the Conference, and with how good they’ve been defensively under Holloway that should allow them to scrap out enough wins to stay out of the bottom. I just don’t see in year 1 with this new group a ton of major success, but my hope if I was Holloway would be to get the guys like Middleton/Dual/Aligbe and so on to stick around for another year, supplement with even more talent around them next year and be ready to contend at the top. It also could be that with expanded opportunity those guys blossom and take huge strides forward and they can compete, there’s just a lot of unproven talent they need to produce for me to believe in that happening. They’ll still be scrappy on defense, but the other end of the floor is likely to still be a struggle, especially without a proven guy they can play through like they had a year ago in Kadary Richmond. I do like Holloway, I just think in this new landscape he’s scrapping and clawing to just field a competitive team. It’s a tough world out there, but if he can just hold on he could have some real talent here next year if they develop this year and stick around, so it’s not all bad.

9.) Butler (NR)

State of the Program:

Butler is in a similar scenario as Seton Hall, as they looked good enough to be a tourney team a year ago at one point (16-8 on Feb 11th), but lost 5 straight after that and it was too much damage done to get in. Now they’ve lost 3 key components of that team and the transfer portal is a slog for these small schools without football money. Thad Matta and this group took a big step forward in year 2, going from 119th to 61st per Kenpom year over year and were better in almost every statistical category. They also get Pierre Brooks and Jahmyl Telfort back who were their leading scorers and backup big man Andre Screen is back to slide in as the starting 5 as well so there is some experience coming back to bring some cohesion. That’s the 3-5 starting spots, and they’ll probably all play 30+ minutes, the questions come and the 1 and 2 spots replacing Davis and Alexander. Returnees Finley Bizjack and Landon Moore were young guys who showed flashes last year with Moore the more natural fit at the 1. He’ll battle transfer Kolby King there, but neither have proven to be playmakers so the offense probably will just go through Telfort for the most part. King shot 38% from 3 so I’d expect him to have a major role even if it’s not starting. McCaffery and Kaiser come in as depth guys, as they should backup Brooks and Telfort and they could even play big with Telfort at the 2 if one of those 2 guys plays well, but neither shoot it well so I’m not sure how they’ll fit in. The FR probably sit this year for the most part as they likely make 10 and 11 on the roster but Langdon does have some promise at his size. He has a nice looking shot and is physical enough to play the 3/4. Doesn’t look like a star but could be a productive player down the road.

Prediction:

Thad can obviously coach at a high level, but he is not working with an exorbitant amount of talent here by any stretch. He will likely get more out of this roster than most, but with just a point forward style guy in Telfort and a spot up shooter in Brooks as your main 2 guys it’s hard to get overly excited about. The optimistic view would be to look at the young guys on the roster like Bizjack/Moore/Kapke and think they can take a big step forward and play much better around those 2. I worry about who creates for them offensively, and an even bigger worry is their 76th rank defensively a year ago. The only positive on that end is they didn’t foul, but that really just tells me they didn’t play very physically and teams were able to kind of do what they wanted on that end. They were 250th in forcing TO’s and middle of the pack in cleaning up the glass and lost their starting 5 man. I think those problems could just magnify, maybe they get better on D, but the nucleus is still the same so the nature of the team remains mostly the same. We’ll see how it goes, but even as someone from Indiana who wants Butler to be good again I’m just feeling uninspired by this roster, and at the end of the day good coaching can only make up for some much of a talent gap. Needless to say I do not expect big things from Butler this year.

10.) DePaul (NR)

State of the Program:

Allow me to try and paint a picture of just how pathetically bad of a situation Chris Holtmann is coming into by coming to DePaul. The Blue Demons have not been to the NCAA tourney since their C-USA days back in 2004. In fact, since coming to the Big East in 2006 they have more seasons with 0 conference wins (’09 — 0-18, ’24 — 0-20) than seasons above .500 in conference play (’07 — 9-7). On one hand it feels like an insurmountable mountain to try and bring them back to relevance, but on the other hand for Holtmann it’s likely going to be refreshing to not have massive expectations like he’s had at Ohio St. It’s a full reset, and all he has to do a Conference game and more than 4 games overall to have taken a step forward. This is 1 of just 2 teams to not have 1 single guy returning (shoutout Louisville), so we’re seeing a transfer portal rebuild at the extreme. I’m not going to breakdown all 12 newcomers, but I’ll point out some trends or interesting guys to look for. I’ll start with a younger guy who have a chance to pop in Layden Blocker from Arkansas. He was a top-50 recruit that should have ample opportunity to show what he’s got after sitting at Arkansas for the most part a year ago. I watched NJ Benson one time last year at Missouri St in a loss to Indiana St in the Horizon tourney and he was a joy to watch, blocking 5 shots and posting a double double with 12 and 10. He’s a high motor guy that I would expect to see wreaking havoc this year. Holtmann found a bunch of elite shooters from outside as well, with Meyer/Rivera/Skogman/Thomas/Enright all shooting 40%+ from 3 a year ago. All things considered, a new coach and coming off an 0-20 conference season, there’s a good amount of talent to work with here.

Prediction:

It’s a hodge-podge group but they should be able to shoot and if Holtmann can get them playing scrappy D they might be able to win not 1 but even 2 conference games this year. Yes I said it. I do believe in Holtmann as a coach, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him get them competitive in a couple years. He could be similar to Shaka Smart in terms of excelling where he can develop lower rated recruits in a smaller school environment vs having the pressure of the big school. He excelled at Butler, like Smart at VCU, but it never really clicked with the Buckeyes (similar to Smart at Texas). Don’t be shocked if DePaul is all of a sudden someone to at least pay attention to by year 3, but year 1 I do not have any sort of expectations other than they win at least 1 Big East game. Bold prediction I know, but the fact that a 2-18 conference record would actually be a step forward tells the whole story.

11.) Georgetown (NR)

State of the Program:

This is a weird situation after Georgetown poached Cooley from Providence despite him looking for so long like a guy who would retire there. He now is in a very difficult situation with a storied program that should be much better than they are. They won just 2 Conference games last year and have just 4 Big East wins over the last 3 seasons (2 of which with Patrick Ewing). There’s no momentum and they get just 2 guys back, which after last season maybe that’s some addition by subtraction. Jayden Epps was their best scorer and creator and he’s back, and he’ll be joined by transfer guard Malik Mack who should allow Epps to slide to the off-guard position. Micah Peavy should come right in and start at the 3 and then the front court is going to be wide open. Jordan Burks was a good recruit but didn’t play much at Kentucky, and at 6’9″ can play the 4 or 5. FR Thomas Sorber is the most promising guy long term on the roster, as he’s a great athlete and has a natural feel for the game. He reminds you a little bit of Trayce Jackson-Davis, as he loves to face up and use his quickness to attack, plays well above the rim and is a great rim protector. Kayvaun Mulready is the other FR that figures to contribute right away as he can score at all 3 levels and has good size for a guard. He’s not the most explosive athlete but can shoot it and get to the rim. Ultimately there is some real talent here, but that was the case last year so allow me some trepidation.

Prediction:

My concern here is culture and defense. As a program they haven’t won in recent memory, and I understand these kids coming into the program weren’t a part of that losing but it’s undoubtedly palpable. When your home arena is half empty, when your expectation is to just win 5 or 6 conference games, when your HC might be on the hot seat in just year 2, you surely can feel it. Last year they were 321st in defensive efficiency, which for a high major team that’s just pathetic. Maybe beyond pathetic. It speaks to Cooley not getting his guys to buy in, because even coaches like Fran McCaffery who don’t emphasize defense will never turn in a season that bad. In fact, it was the worst statistical season on the defensive end of the floor in Cooley’s long HC career, including his years at Fairfield, yes Fairfield. Now, he hasn’t often had elite defensive teams, but his last year at Fairfield they were top-20 and his last 11 years at Providence they were top-100. 321st, again, is beyond pathetic. That’s why they’re here, do they have talent? Yes. But it doesn’t do you much good if you can score 80 ppg if you’re giving up 90. Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard, as cliché as it is it is the truth and played out perfectly a season ago at Georgetown. Until proven otherwise, I’ll assume it continues.

Pre-Season Prediction:

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1.) Indiana (#8)

State of the Program:

Mike Woodson is now entering year 4 with the Hoosiers and has yet to elevate this program back to the level the fanbase expects. That leads you to believe the seat is getting a little warm, as he’s on the heels of a disappointing year where they missed the tourney for the first time in his tenure, not to mention the previous 2 trips they failed to get out of the 1st weekend. In fact, this is a program that hasn’t seen the 2nd weekend since 2016 under Tom Crean, who they ran out of town for failing to live up to the lofty expectations the fanbase has held since the days of Bob Knight. Having said all of that, this might be the most talented roster to enter a season since that 2016 team that went 15-3 in the Big 10, hence their position in my prediction. They return several key pieces that figure to continue to develop in Malik Reneau and Mackenzie Mgbako, veteran Trey Galloway, and role guys Gabe Cupps and Anthony Leal. But the real excitement comes from what Woodson was able to do in the transfer portal, which on paper provides 3 immediate high level contributors with a couple more that have a chance to carve out a role. Oumar Ballo should come right in and start at the 5 alongside Reneau in the frontcourt, with Mgbako at the 3. Behind them is an exciting addition in FR Bryson Tucker, as the top-20 recruit at 6’7″ has the length and scoring ability to come right in and contribute. He is a gifted shooter from 3, with a high and quick release that should translate well, but he also has a mid-post game that allows him to score 1-on-1 in impressive fashion for someone his age. Dare I compare his post fade to LeBron? I won’t, but he’s clearly a Bron fan I’ll say that. The additions of Myles Rice and Kanaan Carlyle are going to be pivotal, as both are coming off of stand out FR campaigns and look to battle it out with Galloway for starting spots at the 1-2. They both were a bit inconsistent and inefficient as scorers, but that comes with the territory with FR, so we should see both settle in with better percentages, especially from 3 which is desperately needed here. It gives Woodson more options than he had a year ago, especially in the backcourt which was a huge weakness for the Hoosiers last year. If you’re an IU fan this is a year where the talent may actually come close to matching the expectations.

Prediction:

The influx of talent is obvious, but it’s a match made in heaven with Woodson, who has now built up a reputation as a HC that wants to get the ball inside and play from the paint offensively. The Hoosiers have ranked 6th and 4th the last two years in % of points coming from 2’s. You may think, well that’s likely because they couldn’t shoot from outside, and while that’s true of last year’s team, just 32% (255th), the 2023 team was the 4th ranked group inside and shot almost 37% from 3, good for a top-40 ranking. It’s obvious what his emphasis is, play inside out, and even allow guys to operate in the midrange and he’ll have the talent this year to dominate those areas once again. All of this means the inevitable high expectations that will be placed on this team are actually warranted this year, so the pressure is both on the players to perform and also Woodson to get them all to buy in and play hard consistently. That has been the bugaboo for this program during his time here, as the biggest criticism of his past teams would be not showing up night in and night out. See the sweep by lowly Penn St last year as prime examples. They should dominate the paint and the glass, and have the athletes to be a good defensive team, but a lot of that will come via consistent effort. If they don’t reach this level of success, that will almost assuredly be why. If everything comes together though this team has an Elite 8 to Final 4 run as its ceiling, and should be battling for a Big 10 championship down the stretch. Gear up Hoosier fans it’s going to be a fun one…or another massive disappointment that causes yet another HC firing. Either way, enjoy the ride.

2.) UCLA (#12)

State of the Program:

The Mick Cronin era at UCLA has been largely a success, with 3 trips to the tourney in the 4 chances he’s had, resulting in a Final 4 run and 2 Sweet 16’s. Pretty damn good, but last year was the first bit of turbulence we’ve seen as it never really came together for what was an extremely young group. It appears Cronin is making a bit of a pivot, as last years roster included 7 top-100 FR and just 4 upper classmen, and it showed. This year he’s gone to the transfer portal to boost the talent level, with just 2 FR incoming. I think the days of bringing in large FR groups and competing right away are a thing of the past (unless you’re Duke), and the veteran transfers are becoming more and more valuable, and to Cronin’s credit, he’s adapting. He has some really talented returnees from last year’s group with double digit scorers Dylan Andrews, Sebastian Mack and Lazar Stefanovic all back in the backcourt. Mack is joined by 3 others from last years class to stick around as well, with Aday Mara and Brandon and Devin Williams all back to try and make a SO jump. However, after the disappointment of last season nobody’s role is safe, nobody should feel comfortable. There are legitimately multiple guys who can be a starter at each position, so let’s dive into it. In the backcourt it’s Andrews and Mack, guys who led the team in scoring but in a rather inefficient way who will battle with Skyy Clark from Louisville, who is likely the most suited guy at PG on the roster, albeit far from a pass first kind of player. He is a gifted scorer and shot better from 3 than either Andrews or Mack, so he should figure to fight for that spot if he can defend up to Cronin’s standards. Next is Gonzaga–>LMU transfer Dominick Harris, who shot a blistering 45% from 3 last year in his breakout year after seeing limited minutes with the Zags years prior. Lastly, there’s incoming top-30 FR Trent Perry, who at 6’4″ has great length for a PG and is a gifted shooter. He’s not the quickest or most explosive, so he may need a year with Cronin to break through, especially given all this talent in the backcourt. The 3 spot is equally as important, and Cronin brought in some competition there as well for returning starter Stefanovic to contend with. Kobe Johnson should play a role, and given his size and rebounding ability should get minutes whether as starter or backup, he just isn’t quite the shooter that Stefanovic is. The 4 and 5 spots are a complete toss up, with returning guys Mara and Williams both having started occasionally there last year but incoming transfers Tyler Bilodeau, William Kyle III and Eric Dailey Jr will all be battling them for minutes. Iron sharpens iron clearly the motto here.

Prediction:

Now we take a breath, and simply state that the talent level here is obviously far greater than a year ago. The question mark comes with how it’ll all come together and if Cronin can create a cohesive locker room with so many mouths to feed. He is a demanding coach, and just missed his first tourney since 2010 with Cincy, so the reaction to load up on talent like this is no surprise. We should expect much better play offensively, and after the worst season for a Cronin team on that end since ’08 in Cincy, that’s not exactly a difficult mark to reach. They were a disgusting 324th in effective FG% last year, so the addition of 5 double digit scorers is both unsurprising and critical. If he can get them up to his standards defensively then the Bruins will become dangerous. I’m betting on Cronin and his coaching ability here, as these transfers had to know what they were getting themselves into, and with all the depth he can afford a guy or 2 to not buy in and find themselves glued to the bench. I think the ceiling here is Conference champs in year 1 in the Big 10 for Cronin, and while they may not get it done there’s really no obvious elite teams in the league this year. With a strong defensive unit and improved shot making there’s no reason they won’t find themselves at least near the top of the league. I will recognize the very real chance the portal guys don’t buy in and we get just an average team, but my money is on Cronin not letting that happen. It is a boom or bust bet, but I’ll take the proven HC with consistent defensive dominance every time.

3.) Purdue (#18)

State of the Program:

Purdue and Matt Painter finally got the March monkey off their backs last year, achieving the March success that has evaded them for decades. A repeat as Big Ten champs, the NPOY and a dominant run to the National Championship game undoubtedly brings a giant sigh of relief for HC Matt Painter and the program. While losing to UConn kept it from being a total dream season, that wasn’t a hang your head loss as UConn was as good a championship team as we’ve seen in some time. So, they now enter the post-Edey era in West Lafayette with a whole new crop of young guys needing to elevate their play to make up for that massive loss. The thing you can hang your hat on with Painter and this program is sticking with what they do, and that’s bring in FR and help them develop into solid Big Ten basketball players. In fact, they are 1 of just 2 high major teams who didn’t bring in a transfer, shoutout Marquette, so the commitment to what is now an old school approach is fascinating. Whether or not it is the best strategy, or even doable at other places is an argument for another time, what I can say with certainty is it’s still working at Purdue, and the variation in approach across the sport just adds another layer of complexity and strategy, something that differentiates college hoops from the copycat styles of the NBA. With that being said, the roster is full of guys ready to emerge this season with all the production needing replaced, and none are more exciting than the duo of Cam Heide and Myles Colvin, both electric athletes that showed flashes in their FR campaigns last year. They will bring a level of athleticism that we don’t often see at Purdue, but more importantly they are gifted shooters, with both shooting over 40% from 3 last season. Also joining this talented backcourt this year is incoming FR Gicarri Harris, who is a strong athlete that’s ready right away to contend with Big 10 guards. He scores well at the rim and shoots it well from outside as well, but his true calling card is on defense, as he has a high motor and plays with physicality. He has a promising future and even started the scrimmage so it looks like he’s going to have a major role right out of the gates. The real question is inside and how they’ll fill the Edey void. They’ll turn to returnees TKR, Furst and Berg as well as rising FR Daniel Jacobsen. TKR will man 1 spot, and should see an uptick in usage and production. We know who Furst is, but the mystery lies in Berg, who at 7’2″ fits the Purdue big man mold, but with such limited play over the last 2 years we just have no idea how good he will be. Then there’s the incoming FR Jacobsen who has made some noise, mostly due to his 7’3″ frame and mobility at his size. He played well with the U18 team and has gotten some National attention for it, but I do worry about his thin frame and overall clunkiness in the post at this young of an age to come in as a true FR and overtake Furst and Berg.

Prediction:

Clearly, there’s not a lack of options for Painter this year, as he has 13 scholarship guys entering the season, all licking their chops at the chance to replace the 44 ppg that are gone from last year’s runner-up team. I have the Boilers finishing this high because of a trust in the system Painter has put in place to develop talent in house. From AJ Hammons, Caleb Swanigan, Isaac Haas, Trevion Williams to Zach Edey, Painter has built consistently good teams year over year despite losing his previous centerpiece inside. The development is always occurring, and while I don’t expect any of the bigs on the roster to score 25 ppg like Edey did, they’re going to step up and be productive like those before them. Then there’s the excitement for the young wings Heide and Colvin, who both have potential to be 10-15 ppg guys to help out Smith and Loyer in making up for the lost production. I also think they have a chance to be a better defensive unit, as they will be more versatile with a TKR and Furst frontcourt, or even a TKR and Heide frontcourt if they go small as they could switch everything and ramp up the pressure without Edey, who they had to play a specific style defensively for (drop coverage, keeping Edey from getting exposed or in fouling situations). What keeps me from putting them higher is the question marks inside, especially when it comes to the glass as well as defending the paint. I still expect to see a heavy dose of ballscreen action with Smith running the show on offense, but the easy lobs to Edey are gone, which could tighten the shooting windows for the surrounding cast. In other words, gone are the days where wings would squeeze down on Edey, or double the post, so you’re forcing Smith to beat you in the midrange/at the rim or Furst/Berg/Jacobsen to reliably catch and make a play. A Big 10 3-peat may rest in the hands of Trey Kaufman-Renn, as a breakout from him and a jump to 15 ppg level production could make them very dangerous. It’s just hard for me to imagine he is as efficient as that would require, and I imagine teams are going to be comfortable letting him go one-on-one in the post. We’ll see how it plays out. While it may not be Final 4 or bust like last year, expectations should still be high for the Boilers, and a Big 10 3-peat is certainly possible if everything goes perfectly.

4.) Michigan St (#20)

State of the Program:

It’s the beginning of a new era of sorts for Izzo and co. as a group exits the program after years of never quite living up to the hype. The likes of Hoggard, Hall, Sissoko and Walker went four years of entering the season with major hype and never winning more than 11 games in conference and no better than a 7 seed in the dance, which by Izzo standards is a disappointing stretch. He has broken through to the Final Four with almost every major recruiting class he’s had, dating back to runs with Morris Peterson (2000), Alan Anderson (’05), Draymond/Lucas (’09-’10), Denzel Valentine (’15) and Cassius Winston (’19). Those guys were leaders among that era’s group of guys that came in, developed and eventually went on their run to the Final 4. This last group never saw such a run, so Izzo will once again try and develop another young group, all the while this old school way of doing things becomes more and more castigated. Izzo will of course remain steadfast regardless, and with last year’s group of FR returning in Booker, Fears and Carr as top-50 recruits, joined by this year’s 2 top-50 guys he has the young horses to go for it with another group for what may be his final few years at the helm. Overall Sparty returns 7 guys from last year including Jaden Akins who averaged double figures and should start this season in the backcourt. Fears and Tre Holloman should also join that backcourt rotation along with exciting FR Jase Richardson. The 6’2″ G is a lanky, quick twitch guard who loves to get downhill and finish at the rim. He reminds you of a young De’Aaron Fox, with a wiry frame and smooth handles, he can be a lethal scorer if his jumper comes along, but already has a great ability to beat defenders off the bounce and finish in the paint. The other FR who figures to find a role is Kur Teng, who at 6’4″ with his strength could play the 2 or 3 just like Akins. He is a smooth scorer of the ball, mostly as a catch and shoot guy though as opposed to Richardson who can create for himself and others. Then there’s the Malik Hall replacement in transfer Frankie Fidler. Although not quite as physically imposing as hall, Fidler was one of the best mid-major scorers in the country last year. He most likely will play the small ball 4 spot, but Izzo has the depth in the frontcourt to play big as well with Fidler or Coen Carr at the 3. The frontcourt is all about development, as the same rotation of Booker/Cooper/Kohler will be battling for minutes at the 5 and even the 4.

Prediction:

I believe in Izzo and his ability to develop the young talent he’s brought in to replace the major pieces that left. That’s the bottom line, and the talent is obviously there in terms of potential, with 7 top-50 recruits on the roster and several other top-100. I love Fears to slot into the starting PG role, as he averaged 3.3 assists last year off the bench and is the best creator they have for others in the half-court. He alongside Holloman, who quietly shot 43% from 3 last year and Akins (career 38% from 3) I think this backcourt can actually end up being a strength. Fidler needs to come in and be a 12-15 ppg guy and the group of Carr/Booker/Cooper need to improve inside, especially on the glass. Izzo’s teams have always been really good rebounding teams and that has not been true over the past few seasons, and while they were top-10 defensively a year ago the rebounding was a real problem (153rd DREB). It’ll surely be an emphasis, and I would expect an improvement there. Their length and athleticism should allow them to be top-10 defensively again, it’s a matter of improving offensively and frankly that could be an issue again. If there’s another year of struggle that will be the cause, but I’m going to bet on these young guys to inject a level of athleticism that allows for more easy buckets in transition and we see Sparty be pretty fun this year. I don’t think expecting them to win the league is smart, but in a transition year I think they should find their way into the tournament, especially with Izzo leading the way. I, for one, am going to sit back and enjoy watching an all-time great try and do it one last time, as Izzo is one of the last of the old school coaches whose fire and passion helped draw me to the sport.

5.) Rutgers (#23)

State of the Program:

We’ve become accustomed to Steve Pikiell coached teams looking a certain way, horrific offensively but lockdown defensively with a grind it out mentality that tested every Big Ten teams resolve. It hasn’t really manifested much postseason success though, with just 1 tourney win in 8 seasons, albeit still a big step forward from the basement dwelling days that preceded him. Pikiell has addressed the major issues that have plagued Rutgers on the offensive end in about as dramatic a way as you can, and as shocking as it may sound the Scarlet Knights might have the most exciting group of newcomers the Big Ten has to offer. Every sane person who pays attention to college hoops would say expectations for this team should be higher than they’ve ever been, but it is going to look far different than we’ve seen in the past, with a likely smaller, more athletic lineup than we’ve ever seen. Dare I say watching Rutgers may actually be an enjoyable experience this season? It would be silly to not start with the obvious here, so let’s talk about the two 5-Star Freshmen taking Rutgers by storm. First is 2nd ranked Ace Bailey, a 6’8″ wing who can play the 3 or 4, and likely will be the 4 given this roster construction. He is a freak athlete that is deadly in transition as well as on the downhill attack in the half-court. His jumper shows promise, but in his likely lone year at Rutgers he is going to be a menace at the rim on both ends of the floor. Next is 6’5″ G Dylan Harper, brother of former Scarlet Knight Ron Harper Jr, who figures to come right in and be the leading playmaker for this Rutgers team. He’s not the explosive athlete that Bailey is but he’s a true 3 level scorer, who on top of his ability to put the ball in the net is a plus passer and a willing passer as well. His ability to create in the half-court, and hopefully orchestrate in transition, is going to be a welcome change of style for this Rutgers program. Those two have to come in and start, and Jeremiah Williams should join them after his breakout a year ago. He will battle incoming transfers Tyson Acuff and Jordan Derkack though, both of whom can really score as well. They also have rotational pieces that shot 40% from 3 in Hayes and Martini transferring in that can help off the bench. That leaves the 5 spot, and that’s where it gets murky. The loss of Omoruyi is what kept Rutgers at 5th and not higher, as there’s not a lot of meat on this roster inside. They have returning role player Emmanuel Ogbole, who at 6’11” is the obvious fit, but FR Lathan Sommerville is an interesting prospect to watch. Although he’s a bit undersized he plays bigger than his height, and despite a lack of explosiveness as an athlete he has craft to his game and good touch inside to go along with a high motor.

Prediction:

I don’t know exactly how this is going to play out of course, but one thing I know is it’s going to be electric either way. Any time you pair 2 elite prospects together like this it’s going to be must watch TV, and the other scoring options on the team make for a roster we’ve never seen at Rutgers before. It should be a far cry from the Rutgers teams from the past, but as exciting as it should be there is a real weakness for this roster in the paint. I think they will try to use it to their advantage as much as they can, with high pressure on D, switching everything and looking to force turnovers and get out in transition. Will it be enough to make up for the almost certain deficit on the boards? I’m not sure, and that’s what holds me back despite my excitement to watch this young team. If Omoruyi stays, this group could win the Big 10, but without a force inside I think they have a very watchable 4th-6th place finish in the league. There is also the slight chance Pikiell doesn’t actually adapt his style and tries to force his new thoroughbreds to walk it up the court and play in the half-court. I think he’s too smart a coach for that though. While I have them ranked in the top-25 it may take a little while for that to actually come to fruition, but I fully expect these 2 FR to come out swinging and with the talent added via the transfer portal as well there is no reason this team isn’t competing near the top of the Conference and finding their way into the Dance come March. So here’s to turning a new page at Rutgers and here’s to that culminating in the best season in recent memory.

6.) Oregon (NR)

State of the Program:

Dana Altman and the Ducks enter the Big Ten as one of the best programs the PAC-12 had to offer, going above .500 in conference play each of the last 13 seasons. Altman is one of the more underrated coaches in the country, and again maintained his perfect record in the first round of the NCAA tourney as Oregon’s HC, moving to an astounding 8-0 in round 1 games in the NCAA tournament. Please take a second to recognize how ridiculously impressive it is to do that. Okay, onward. The Ducks relied on a very good duo of Dante and Couisnard a year ago who are both gone, but the mix of returning talent and incoming talent should have Altman and co. right in the tournament mix once again. The returnees in the backcourt include standout FR Shelstad and Tracey who are back for SO jumps as well as vet Barthelemy, with Shelstad likely to start and lead the way after an outstanding FR campaign. Transfers Bamba and Moss both figure to start as well after averaging double figures scoring at their previous schools, making a strong trio in the backcourt. The last of the rotation in the 1-3 spots will be FR Jamari Phillips, who is an elite shooter of the basketball, with a smooth jumper and the athleticism to come right in and contribute. Inside there’s another strong rotation, with returning 7 footer Nate Bittle and former 5-star Kwame Evans Jr back for his SO year. Those two along with transfer bruiser Supreme Cook and scoring PF Brandon Angel give the Ducks plenty of punch inside. Of course there’s also former top-50 recruit Mookie Cook who is back and could develop into a solid rotational guy at the 3/4 spots. That’s a very talented group of 11 right there, and while not all of them will be able to have a seat at the table, having this much talent with a HC like Altman make it pretty clear that the Ducks are going to be a tough team in year 1 in the Big 10.

Prediction:

While the talent is there to compete at the top of the conference, I held them back here in the 2nd tier of teams for a few reasons. The first of which is the lack of depth inside, with just Bittle back as a true 5 man. While he’s super talented, he has battled injuries his entire career, if he goes down they are down to just Supreme Cook as their main big inside, with Angel and Evans more suited as stretch 4’s. They’ll likely be forced to play Cook at the 5 often this season, but if he’s all they have that could get ugly in the Big Ten, especially on the glass. The 2nd reason is playmaking, as they don’t really have a true creator on the roster, with Moss and Shelstad being the closest things to it. They still both like to score first, and without a dominant back to the basket big man you start to wonder what their half court offense looks like. You could have a Villanova type situation from a year ago, where you have 5 guys that can score individually, but it leads to a lot of standing around and watching guys go 1-on-1 in the halfcourt. They were also atrocious defensively a year ago, which you can get away with in a less competitive Pac-12, but in the Big Ten if you don’t bring physicality on that end it can get ugly quick, just ask Michigan, who brought in talented transfers last year and were toilet paper soft, leading to a 3-17 Big Ten record. With all of that said I still believe in Altman and what he can do with talent. It’s not always done the same with him, as he’s won with elite defensive teams and elite offensive teams that struggle on the opposite end. He plays to his roster’s strengths rather than forcing the roster into a specific mold. See the range in tempo from as fast as 37th with a team that went to the Sweet 16 all the way down to 328th, again reaching the Sweet 16. I trust his ability to adjust to his team and take this talent and put them in the right position to win games and compete for a tourney berth (reaching 9-0 in Round 1?). We’ll see if moving to the Big Ten has any impact on that, but my expectation for Altman remains the same until I see otherwise.

7.) Illinois

State of the Program:

Brad Underwood has gotten this Illini program back in a position of power in the Big 10 over the last 4 seasons, going 56-24 in Conference (1 co-championship and 2 runner up finishes), making 4 straight NCAA tourney’s and finally getting a breakthrough in the dance a year ago with a trip to the Elite 8. That is a run that you would expect to yield some real roster strength and a ton of returning talent, but that is not what we’re seeing entering this season. 10 players have left the program, with 6 by way of transfer, which is quite surprising for a program that’s experiencing success over a sustained period. Nevertheless it’s the reality, and Underwood is now tasked with rebuilding essentially the entire roster, with just 8 ppg returning from last year’s group it’s a new chapter for he and the Illini. Of course, just as the transfer portal taketh, it can also giveth, or something like that, and Underwood has brought in some intriguing talent, most notably PG Kylan Boswell and W Tre White. Those 2 are going to have to lead the show as they are really the only 2 proven producers at the power Conference level, but neither have ever been a number 1 option. The wildcards are the Europeans. We’ll start with big man from Croatia Tomislav Ivisic, who at 7’1″ looks to have a game similar to current star in college hoops Hunter Dickinson. He has a good post up game, with a hook shot to either hand, but can also stretch out and hit 3’s. He’s not a physical bruiser or some sort of elite rim protector, but in the Dickinson vein has the potential to be a high volume producer at the 5 spot. The other is Kasparas Jakucionis who is a sharpshooting guard that has everyone excited. He’s not only a shooter as he can get to the bucket and finish with the best of them, but I’m interested to see how it translates to this level, as he’s not the most athletic and his shot is also pretty slow, but he should definitely play and be a shooting threat, even if he’s a liability on D. There’s also the incoming FR, with Morez Johnson being a little less of a natural pairing with Ivisic, as he is an undersized back to the basket guy himself. I would expect Will Riley to have more potential to play a significant role, as at 6’8″ he can handle the ball like a guard and score at all 3 levels. He has a wiry frame and a game that lacks fundamentals, or any sort of predictability, but resembles something you’d see from the guy at the local park that dominates everyone in the most unorthodox way you can picture. I’m not sure how that shot selection will translate, but he does have sky high potential with his ability to simply get buckets at his size. We know Rogers and he’ll surely have a role, as well as Gibbs-Lawhorn who was playing more and more as the season went on last year. With guys like Carey Booth at 6’10” and lanky, and Humrichous as a stretch 4 Underwood has options to play several types of lineups, whether he wants to go big or surround the big Croatian with 4 shooters and play inside out with him. It’s an intriguing rebuild, but one that has a lot riding on unproven talent, so it’s risky to really believe it’s all just going to come together and produce efficiently enough to compete in a deep and competitive conference.

Prediction:

Many people have the Illini higher than this in the predictions, and while 7th sounds pretty unpalatable, it’s still in the upper half of an 18 team conference. I think any of these middle teams could end up at the top of this tier, but they all have major question marks and they certainly can’t all have good seasons. Best case scenario for the Illini is Ivisic comes right in and can be a 12 and 8 guy at the 5 spot and really be a problem for Big 10 bigs to defend. That would allow for a surrounding cast of shooters like Boswell/G-Lawhorn/White/Jakucionis/Humrichous to play inside out and knock down open looks as defenses double/dig on the big man. Worse case is he’s not quite ready, especially on defense and the glass. If he can’t produce and they struggle defensively with the slower big man presenting challenges then they’ll have to pivot inside. So hey, maybe they just play small in that scenario with Booth and Humrichous, but I’m not sure what that does to them offensively as Booth is really only effective at the rim and Humrichous is more of a perimeter stretch 4. So, that puts a ton of pressure on Boswell and White to carry the load, something neither has done in their career to this point. This is one that a few games into the season it’s going to become much more clear once we see what direction Underwood is going and what identity he is trying to establish with this roster. He’s had a dominant big before with Kockburn, but last year played small, so he’s willing to adapt to what the roster strengths are. That’s just the question though, what will the strengths be and how strong? How will they even play with this roster? They could be pretty bad defensively if the starting 3-5 is Jakucionis/Humrichous/Ivisic who are all, well, not the most athletic. Also, who is their go-to guy? Until I see more I’m leaving them here, with the ceiling admittedly being higher than this because against those Europeans they were playing Ivisic/Jakucionis looked like they could be a problem. You just never know.

8.) USC (NR)

State of the Program:

Well this is the biggest, most extreme rebuild that is happening in college basketball right now, with the move to the Big Ten, just 1 returning scholarship player from a year ago and a new HC in Eric Musselman the program is completely reset. As he often does the Muss Bus has gone heavy into the transfer portal, bringing in 11 transfers along with 2 FR to give him 14 guys to work with in LA. Muss has brought in an astounding amount of production, with 5 guys who averaged 15+ ppg a year ago and 4 more that also averaged double digit scoring. He has an array of positional talent, from an 18/3/3 PG Slajchert to a 6’10” C Cohen who averaged 16 and 7 inside. There’s power conference talent like Desmond Claude and Terrance Williams, a Mountain West standout in Agbo Jr and even Ivy league guys. It’s a diverse hodge podge of talent, that if brought together could be an extremely dangerous team in the Big Ten, and Nationally. However, I’ve been fooled by Muss and his accumulation of talent via the portal recently, as last year’s group never came together. So, there’s cautious optimism, as the on paper talent will only take you so far. Muss has had tremendous success in his career building programs quickly, but in both his stops at Nevada and Arkansas he missed the dance in year 1. So, we may want to have some patience, although he never had the resources or open free agency via the portal in those years, so in some ways this is unprecedented even for him.

Prediction:

It’s damn near impossible to predict what is going to happen with this USC team, as it’s essentially a pickup team that’s been hand selected by one of the premier coaches in the sport when it comes to roster building. They have legitimate scorers of the basketball at every position, do they just try and score 100 every game and dare you to run with them? I don’t see him trying to play a halfcourt, take the air out of the ball type of game with a brand new roster, so a high pressure run and gun approach seems most likely. That also makes them a candidate for most fun watch in the country, with the storyline of the rebuild and Muss at the helm they could be a very fun watch even if it isn’t always resulting in wins. It’s a boom or bust approach for Muss, as if this blows up most if not all of these guys can and likely will just transfer out and he’s starting from zero again with a bunch of pressure to take strides forward. I’m going to predict, very unconvincingly, that they end up somewhat like last year’s St. John’s team, right on the bubble and competing down the stretch. It may be a tough start, which could hamper their ability to go dancing, but I would not be shocked that by Big 10 play USC starts to put things together, and by February are trying to go on a run to get onto the right side of the bubble. It’s a complete shot in the dark, but you have to trust Muss, with the most resources he’s ever had, to demand excellence and get a core of these guys to buy in and find some success at some point. I’ll take them to be frisky and fun, and be right in the middle of the pack of this deep conference. Right or wrong, it’s going to be fascinating to watch how this extreme rebuild plays out.

9.) Nebraska (NR)

State of the Program:

What Fred Hoiberg has done with Nebraska is as amazing as it was predictable. That’s not to diminish the feat, but speaks to Hoiberg’s outstanding reputation as a coach, as most believed with time he would elevate this Nebraska program from the laughing stock of the Big Ten to a competitive team. Year 5 was the culmination of progress year over year, as he got the Huskers to the tourney for just the 2nd time since 1998. He welcomes back 2 starters from last year’s group in Williams and Gary after losing Mast to injury for the season, and has brought in a slew of transfers to fill the gaps left behind by those who left. The most notable hole is fan favorite Keisei Tominaga, who electrified the fan base, and frankly any fan of college hoops, and whose vacancy will be difficult to replace. Transfer Rollie Worster figures to handle the duties at the 1 spot, with a near 10/5/5 year with Utah last year he should come right in and produce. The final starting spot will be up for grabs, with Connor Essegian and Gavin Griffiths competing for the 2/3 spot alongside Worster and Williams. They are all different guys, with Essegian mostly just a spot up shooter, I think he serves more of a backup role as Griffiths showed flashes last year for Rutgers and has tremendous upside with his length. Transfers Morgan and Meah should have a role off the bench behind Bayuktuncel and Williams inside. With Ulis joining the backcourt as well they have a strong group to try and follow up and improve on last year’s success. Ultimately, it’s not the most eye popping talent wise, but Hoiberg has consistently proven he can maximize talent, so I have faith they will be once again in the mix.

Prediction:

Returning 3 of your 4 leading scorers is huge, and with the influx of new talent I truly think Nebraska will be tough once again this year. The one worry I have is outside shooting, as the biggest improvement, aside from the defensive end of the floor, was shooting from outside. They went from 256th to 78th in 3 point shooting a year ago, which helped them improve their offensive efficiency from 149th to 32nd. That was massive, but it was led in large part by Tominaga and Wilcher. Williams shot well as well, but losing those two and bringing in guards who all shot sub-35% from 3 is a worrisome fact. Now, I do think having a true setup man like Worster can help them, so there are some positives as well. Not to mention they drastically improved defensively, from 178th 3 years ago to 43rd last year. A continued emphasis on that end will help to make up for a slight dip in outside shooting. Their weaknesses were mostly on the glass and consistency on D, as many of their losses they gave up 90+ points. They play fast, shoot a lot of 3’s but don’t rebound well, so things can get out of hand quickly and we saw that often. Those are the holes that I see that have kept them down here in the middle of the Conference for me. Hoiberg has steadily improved every year, but getting to 30th in efficiency is tough to improve on without a serious influx of talent, which I’m not seeing. I expect a similar level Nebraska, somewhere in the 30’s overall and battling for a tourney bid. Even so, for Nebraska a chance to make back-to-back tourney’s for the first time since the early 90’s has to have you excited, if for nothing else a chance to get your first tourney win in school history. Yes you read that right, the Huskers are 0-8 all-time in the dance. Could this be the year?

10.) Michigan (NR)

State of the Program:

It’s another new era in the Big Ten, this time in Ann Arbor as Juwan Howard is out and in comes former FAU head man Dusty May. With him comes quite a bit of talent, although not nearly the volume that USC has it is still very strong at the top. It is headlined by May’s big man at FAU Vlad Goldin who has already proven in his career he can play with the big boys and should come in and be a big time producer in the Big Ten. Roddy Gayle headlines the backcourt additions, as he took a major step forward a year ago at Ohio St, producing at a high level as a scorer and distributor. Around those two is a mix of transfers, returning talent and FR who all will battle for minutes. Rubin Jones and Tre Donaldson appear to be the leading candidates to run the point, with both having the potential to start as Jones is 6’4″ and could play the 2 between Donaldson and Gayle. Burnett and FR Justin Pippen also will compete for time though also, as Pippen, the son of Scotty Pippen, was a rising prospect as he came on late in his HS career and has developed into a serious prospect. He can score at all 3 levels and has good length and bounce for his size and could be a contributor right away. Goldin and Alabama transfer Walter probably man the 4/5, although Will Tschetter certainly could play the 4 a lot as well. There’s obviously a solid group of talented guys, it’s not 13 deep by any means but there’s a solid core of 9 or 10 guys that can make Michigan a player again in the Big Ten right away with May at the helm.

Prediction:

I actually think this transition could go pretty well, as Goldin and Wolf give the Wolverines anchors inside to play through on offense, and the guards around them can all knock down shots from the outside. I have no idea how they’ll be defensively though, which could be the x factor for them competing for a tourney bid or flaming out in the bottom half of the league. I have them smack dab in the middle, but teams 6-11 for me all have tourney upside but enough holes for me to seriously doubt they could win the league. At the end of the day we don’t have a ton to go off of with May, but the last 2 year’s at FAU he had a top-25 offensive team, that played through Goldin and a large cast of guards who shared the sugar and shot a ton of 3’s. I expect a similar philosophy, especially with him bringing Golding AND Wolf, signaling he wants that anchor inside to play through. I worry about the defense, as Michigan really struggled on that end a year ago and May has only had a top-50 ranked defensive team once in his short coaching career. The upside is that one team was the one that went 35-4 and all the way to the Final 4, so on some level he’s proven he can build a winner. His one chance at handling expectations didn’t go as great, but still he deserves credit for building a program out of essentially nothing that could go 32-6 in Conference play and make back to back tourney’s after missing the dance for 20 straight years. I may expect too much, but the talent is here for this to be a bubble team and maybe squeak into the dance, but with a rebuild like this anything is possible.

11.) Ohio St (NR)

State of the Program:

The Buckeyes had a wild season last year, as they started 12-2, including a win over eventual Final 4 team Alabama, but went just 2-9 over their next 11 games leading to the firing of Chris Holtmann. In came interim HC Jake Diebler, who quickly turned the ship around as they finished the regular season 5-1, only to fall in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tourney in a battle with Elite 8 team Illinois. Diebler’s success landed him the full time HC gig, so we enter this year with essentially a rookie HC who has had to somewhat rebuild this roster. He does get back their best player from a year ago in Bruce Thornton, so that helps, but with only a couple of role players like Devin Royal and Evan Mahaffey around him coming back Diebler is having to rely on transfers and unproven youth to try and avoid a tough year 1. The good news is the group of transfers has strong potential, with former 5-star recruits in Sean Stewart and Aaron Bradshaw, leaving Duke and Kentucky respectively, in search of more playing time. Add in veteran wing Micah Parrish and veteran guards Meechie Johnson (welcome back) and Ques Glover and you start to see a strong nucleus forming. They will also have former top-50 recruit Taison Chatman in the backcourt as well as incoming FR John Mobley. Mobley comes in as an elite shooter but at his size will likely only spell Thornton at the point, but as he grows and gets stronger he should be a weapon down the road for the Buckeyes. All in all the talent is here for the Buckeyes to be in bubble conversations come February if Diebler has what it takes to get this group to buy in and gel.

Prediction:

It’s really hard to predict how a coach with just 11 total games under his belt is going to fare, especially when you factor in the roster turnover. What I’ll give him credit for is how he galvanized the locker room a year ago, as they clearly were playing harder on both ends once he took control. They improved from 67th in overall efficiency to 47th by year’s end, with a slight uptick in tempo and much better results on the defensive end as the driving factors. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the coaching change produced better play out of the exact same roster, so at the very least he was able to light a fire under last year’s group. I’ll assume that fire stays lit, even with newcomers entering the program, he clearly established he’s going to require/inspire excellence on a different level than the previous regime. That combined with the talent coming in to surround an All-Conference lead guard in Bruce Thornton has me cautiously optimistic about where the Buckeyes could end up this year. Bradshaw could develop into an elite rim protector and rebounder, Johnson and Glover can help with the scoring load and Stewart/Royal/Mahaffey all bring potential to the 3/4 spots with Parrish as the vet alongside. I have 2 big worries overall, outside shooting and depth in the frontcourt. There is a lot of pressure on Bradshaw to produce at a high level as a rebounder, with just the Croatian FR Ivan Njegovan or Austin Parks behind him, none of whom have produced at this level. They also only have 1 guy in Glover who has shot over 33% from 3, not great. There’s a lot of potential, but with potential comes risk, and that’s why I’ll stick them in the back half in the Conference. I could see them getting to the upper part of this second tier if everything goes well, but if the transfers don’t click, it could be another year of missing the dance and leaving Buckeye fans wondering if the HC move was the right one. The ceiling here is to be in the bubble talks and get into the tourney as an 8-9 seed, but the floor is falling into the bottom of the Conference. I have a good feeling about Diebler, but in this world of instant gratification, he has a lot of pressure to produce right away.

12.) Iowa (NR)

State of the Program:

The Hawkeyes finished a bit better than my expectations a year ago, but still were just .500 in Conference play and missed the tourney for the first time since 2018. It was a roster that was missing the true go-to offensive star that they’ve had in the past, but they still managed to be a top-20 offensive team with a litany of contributors. They had 4 guys average double figures, but just 2 of them are back with Payton Sandfort (leading scorer) and rising young big Owen Freeman returning. Josh Dix in the backcourt took a step forward last year as well, shooting 42% from 3 in his SO campaign and looks like a sure bet to play the 2 next to Sandfort at the 3. To replace Perkins they brought in a transfer PG from Morehead St Drew Thelwell, and while he was a bit inefficient as a scorer he will be able to run the offense and may even improve on his 6 assists per game with the pace Iowa plays if he has full control. Traore, the other transfer, likely comes in and plays the 4 spot alongside Freeman, to give them a decent starting 5 that should be able to continue scoring the ball at a high level. Ultimately though, the Iowa success story of the years, to the extent there is one, is a story of developing talent in house. If they want to improve on last season’s results one of the minor role players from last year is going to need to take a big step forward to give them some real punch. Maybe it’s Owen Freemen if he can turn into an All-Conference type of big man that we’ve seen before at Iowa. Either way we know they’ll be able to score, and McCaffery at the least has proven he can always get his teams to at least be around the .500 mark in Conference seemingly every year, with the occasional standout year.

Prediction:

If you’re new to 5-Star then you won’t know my previous diatribes on the Iowa Hawkeyes, so allow me a quick summary as my thoughts pretty much remain the same. If you aren’t going to play defense you aren’t going to win at a high level. Year after year folks get enamored with the fast paced run and gun offense the Hawkeyes are known for, but time and again they refuse to defend, which was clearly on display again last year as they were 157th in defensive efficiency, and over the last 8 years they’ve not been better than 75th. As good as an offensive mind as Fran McCaffery may be, his refusal to clean up the defensive end of the floor is going to continue to prevent his ability to get over the hump. He has been at Iowa for 14 seasons, with 7 tournament appearances that have produced just 4 wins, never getting out of the first weekend. They’ve never won the Big Ten under McCaffery, but also they’ve been .500 or better in Conference play 11 of those seasons. He’s capable of keeping them competitive, and deserves some credit for doing so, but I will continue to beat a dead horse in saying they are unable to get over the hump because they refuse to play defense. Until that changes I will not be putting them anywhere near the top of the Conference, especially without an NBA caliber talent like Keegan Murray or Luka Garza anywhere to be found on this year’s roster. I expect them to finish somewhere around 9-11 in Conference play and miss a 2nd straight tourney, but hey maybe they’ll surprise me and go 10-10. Either way, I expect more of the same so long as McCaffery is leading the show.

13.) Northwestern (NR)

State of the Program:

This was a really fun team last year, as Boo Buie was must watch TV down the stretch and his ridiculous scoring efforts allowed them to get to back-to-back NCAA tourney’s and secure 1st round W’s in both trips. You have to give big time credit to Collins in adapting last year, as his teams at Northwestern have been traditionally strong defensively and really struggled to score the ball. Having the shooters he had and Buie at the point, he just gave it to Buie and said carry us. His ability to take over games and break down defenses to either score or open up things for his teammates was the driving factor to their success. And a huge success it was for a Northwestern program that historically tops out as pesky in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, with Booie and fellow sharpshooter Ryan Langborg gone the offensive firepower is going to be much lower this year. They do welcome back Brooks Barnhizer and Ty Berry, who will have to be a dominant duo if they want to sniff the success of a season ago. I do think both have potential to be All-Conference players, especially Barnhizer who scored in double figures 19 of their final 21 games and shot 42% from 3 in Conference play on low volume. They brought in Jalen Leach from Fairfield to try and fill the void left behind by Buie and Langborg, but they will be asking a lot of the mid major transfer as he’ll need to come in and run the show alongside Berry. The other role players should continue to be who they are, as we’re all aware of Martinelli, Nicholson and Hunger and who they are. They don’t jump off the page in terms of being guys who will take major steps forward, but were solid a year ago in their role and should be again. All in all there’s enough here for Northwestern to stay out of the bottom of the Conference at the very least.

Prediction:

I expect regression on the offensive end without Buie leading the show, hello captain obvious, but I have seen Northwestern lower than this elsewhere and I do think that’s a lack of respect for Barnhizer and Berry. Those two have proven they’re getting better year over year, especially Barnhizer who looks to be a very tough 3/4 man to deal with this year. My issue more lies with the depth, or lackthereof, which is why I have them sliding so much from last year. I do think a typical major conference program could absorb the loss of Buie a little easier, but Northwestern ranked 301st in bench minutes played last year. They didn’t have depth that Collins trusted last year, and frankly all that load on the starters may have contributed to the injury situations we saw down the stretch for them. They landed 1 guard in the transfer portal, but behind Leach and Berry is a whole lot of question marks. I appreciate the fight that Collins has brought to this program, but I think they step back to where they had been for years under him as just pesky, with a likely upset or two at home that shocks people and gets them some bubble buzz at some point in January or February, but ultimately the lack of depth and playmaking at the guard spots will hold them back too much. They are the perfect NIT team in my opinion, and in a year where you just lost maybe the greatest player in program history at a place like Northwestern, being fiesty and a NIT team isn’t a horrible ending. Best case is Barnhizer and Berry absolutely dominate, both scoring 15+ ppg and they improve a little on defense and can squeak their way into a 3rd straight NCAA tournament as like a 10 seed. I don’t see it happening, but there is a path given how good those 2 can potentially be.

14.) Maryland (NR)

State of the Program:

I’m not a Maryland fan or friends with any so I’m not plugged in with how they are feeling about the switch to Kevin Willard, but after last season I would think he enters this year with a warming seat. He had what was a promising roster coming off the heels of an NCAA tourney berth and first round W, so expectations were certainly not met a year ago as they finished the season going 2-8 in February/March and overall were just 16-17 (7-13). They were horrific offensively, and what production they did have is mostly gone as 2 of their 3 guys to average double figures are gone and their 4th leading scorer is also gone. The good news is they get big man Julian Reese back who can be a centerpiece for them, and now SO DeShawn Harris–Smith is a candidate to have a SO jump. Throw in role players Jordan Geronimo and Jahari Long and that’s it from last year’s group, and maybe that’s a good thing after the way they finished the season. Willard was able to nab some key transfers to replace the backcourt losses, including Ja’Kobi Gillespie to run the point after an All-Conference season in the MVC, and he’ll likely be joined by USF transfer Selton Miguel to form what could be a solid backcourt. They joined with Harris-Smith should continue to make Maryland a force defensively, but more importantly Willard will hope they can improve the Terps dreadful shooting from last year as they both shot 39%. Inside FR Derik Queen, who reminds you of former Purdue big man Caleb Swanigan, as he’s a bit on the husky side and isn’t an explosive athlete by any means, but man is he a load inside. He understands how to throw his weight around and get good position inside and has good touch when he gets it. Obviously Reese is still here and the main man but they finally have some depth to help him out with Queen, who should be a productive Big Ten big for a few years. Geronimo and transfer Gapare figure to play at the 4 as well, so depth inside is a lot better this year.

Prediction:

I want to put the Terps in the same category as Northwestern, as I think they’ll be pesky but don’t have the ceiling to truly be up there contending with the big dogs. I like what Willard did to address the issue of outside shooting (347th in 3-pt % last year), and adding depth inside is huge as well. The fact is the loss of Jahmir Young and his 20 ppg is a massive blow to an already low skill group offensively, and while Gillespie and Miguel had success in the Missouri Valley and American conferences last year you’re relying on mid major transfers to essentially lead the show offensively from the 2 backcourt spots. I like the duo of Reese and Queen, but I’m not sure they can play together, as neither can shoot and it’s tough to run two back to the basket bigs effectively. Best case is those 2 transfer guards produce at a high level and the combo of Reese and Queen create a 5 man that averages 25 and 15. If that comes to fruition and they can defend like Willard coached teams have in the past then I think they squeak back to the tourney, it’s just a lot to ask for. I expect for some bumps in the road, especially with the depth this conference has, and while the top might not be as strong, having 14 or more teams that you can make an argument as having tourney potential is insane. I look for them to still be alive come February but ultimately to just not have enough firepower to be in a position to get into the dance. It still won’t be fun going to College Park this year.

15.) Wisconsin (NR)

State of the Program:

Greg Gard has had an above average run at Wisconsin over the last 9 years, despite not much success in March. He’s made the dance 7 of his 9 seasons, going above .500 in Conference play in 7 of 9 as well. These days in college basketball it’s harder and harder to find that kind of year over year consistency. So, even though he hasn’t made it out of the first weekend since 2017 I think the chatter of his potentially getting fired is a bit unwarranted. That being said, I don’t think he makes it 8 out of 10 with this roster he has. They lose their leading scorer AJ Storr from last year as he chased his bag to Kansas, don’t blame him, and vets Tyler Wahl and Chucky Hepburn are also gone. What remains are a few nice pieces, with longtime 5 man Steven Crowl leading the way, along with rising guards Max Klesmit and John Blackwell. Blackwell is the intriguing guy here, as if they are to outperform where I have them he is going to have to take a major step forward after what was a surprising FR campaign that saw him shoot a ridiculous 46% from 3, so he clearly showed he has more in him. Beyond those 3 we start asking a lot of questions as far where the production is going to come from and who is going to get minutes and where. The transfer Camren Hunter is the most logical fit to replace Chucky as the PG, and frankly appears to be the only one who has played that role at the college level. He was productive in the A-Sun, but sat out last year due to an injury so we’ll have to wait and see if he’s ready to come into the Big Ten and run an offense under Gard who prioritizes taking care of the basketball. Guys like Iver and Gilmore played small roles a year ago and are going to have to step up in the absence of Wahl, and transfer Xavier Amos looks to help in that area as well as a natural fit next to Crowl inside as he can shoot from the perimeter.

Prediction:

To be honest I struggle most years trying to place Wisconsin in these previews, because they always seem to outperform the talent level on paper. Defensively they have been very good, top-20 in 6 of his season’s and at least top-50 in 8. They aren’t Virginia, but they may be as close to it as exists out there, as they play at a snails pace, almost always rank near the top at taking care of the ball, and usually struggle to score. What I worry about is the lack of a true go-to guy offensively this year, which they’ve had under Gard when they are at their best. From Ethan Happ to Johnny Davis to last year AJ Storr, they had a guy they could depend on to carry them on that end. This roster does not appear to have that, as Crowl has only been a supplemental 2nd or 3rd option in his career and his highest usage rate in 2023 they were 140th offensively and missed the tourney. That’s why they went and got a guy like Storr to score in the halfcourt for them. Gone is Storr though, and what remains are all unproven guys in terms of being a number 1 scoring option. The best case you can make for the Badgers is Blackwell takes a major step forward with increased opportunity, and frankly that’s not out of the question as he was incredibly efficient when he did get the opportunity last year. So, we know Crowl will produce inside at a 12/8 range and Klesmit is a knockdown catch and shoot option, and if Blackwell along with Hunter can create in the halfcourt and they pair that with a top-20 defense again then they’ll outperform this prediction. I still see the ceiling as a fringe tourney team, and ultimately think there’s a lot of wildcards that have to go the right way, and with so much talent entering the Conference it’s hard to imagine. I expect them to miss the tourney for the 2nd time in 3 years, and the seat may start to get warm again for Gard.

16.) Washington (NR)

State of the Program:

Another total rebuild, which is becoming a far more common occurrence, thus making the prediction game much more difficult. New HC Danny Sprinkle is on the fast track right now as he took Montana St to back-to-back tourney’s and parlayed that into the Utah St job, taking his star players with him and getting the Aggies to the tourney and picking up his first win in the Dance. This is now his 3rd school in 3 seasons and with him he’s brought Great Osobor to all 3 spots. That’s the biggest bright spot people are focusing on around this UW program, but the rest of the incoming transfers leave a little to be desired compared to the other rebuilds in the Conference. I also think Osobor may be in for a rude awakening in the Big 10, as Utah St didn’t play a power conference opponent until the NCAA tourney. The two tourney games he averaged just 13 ppg and 6 rebounds. They as a team gave up 34 offensive rebounds with him as the stalwart inside. His stats a year ago were inflated due to the horrific teams at the bottom of the Mountain West and he would put up 30 and 15 on them. I expect his efficiency and effectiveness to drop quite a bit coming into the Big 10, which is going to put pressure on a collection of guards coming in that does not include a real dominant playmaker. The The group of Davis/Mason/Ihenacho/Kortright will be the core, and it’s a group that was inefficient as shooters, and not exactly known for their defense. That lack of obvious standouts is going to open the door for top-50 PG Zoom Diallo to come in and have an impact. The 6’3″ PG is at his best when attacking downhill, as he can blow-by as well as use his craftiness to get in the paint and finish or setup teammates. Not a proven outside shooter yet but has shown effectiveness in the midrange, and with the only true PG coming in being Ihenacho from N. Dakota, the opportunity to get playing time at the 1 is certainly there. Osobor will be joined by the duo of Kepnang and Breidenbach inside, but the transfers Conway and Ibekwe could be a factor as well.

Prediction:

I’ll start by saying Danny Sprinkle can clearly coach, getting to 3 straight tourney’s now at Montana St and Utah St is nothing to scoff at. I worry about the challenge level he’s facing here coming into an 18 team Big Ten that has deep rooted programs and HC’s that have momentum. I don’t think this transfer roster has enough firepower like the other rebuilds happening at USC and Michigan for example. Dusty May has a similar background as Sprinkle, but man does he have more to work with in terms of proven high major talent on his roster. That’s the fear here, and while we’ve seen guys make the jump from mid-major to the power conference level carve out meaningful roles, we haven’t seen guys come in and be a star, aside from Dalton Knecht of course. There’s nobody on this roster that looks like a Knecht, so ultimately I think it’ll be a well coached team that plays hard but just doesn’t have the talent to keep up with the rest of this Conference. They’ll win some games and stay out of the basement, but there’s just not the horses here for Sprinkle to turn this around in year 1. I have hope for him in the future, especially if he can hang on to some of these guys and create a culture and some cohesion. Stick around and don’t give up on him even if there are struggles in year 1, of which I believe there will be many.

17.) Penn St (NR)

State of the Program:

Mike Rhoades actually did a pretty decent job in year 1 trying to rebuild Penn St after their successes under Shrewsberry. Winning 9 games in the Big Ten is nothing to scoff at, especially considering he had to completely overhaul a roster. He also welcomes back a strong core from last year’s team including Ace Baldwin who can be an All-Conference guard and 3 more regular starters in Hicks, Kern and Johnson plus regular rotation player Dunn. That’s a solid group of 5 guys that can all come right back and maintain some cohesion after a solid year last year. Freddie Dilone is another name to watch in the backcourt as he was a top-50 recruit to Tennessee that just never had the opportunity to show what he can do. The problem that’s keeping them this low for me is this is a group that struggled defensively in the paint and really struggled on the glass. They had just 1 true center in Qudus Wahab and he is gone, with no real proven replacement in sight. They were 282nd in the country in opponent 2 point % and 316th in offensive rebounds allowed, for those of you who require evidence. So, what little paint presence they did have is now gone and the replacements are N. Illinois transfer Yanic Niederhauser who averaged a mere 4 rebounds per game, Xavier transfer Kachi Nzeh who only played sparingly and is undersized and incoming FR Miles Goodman. Goodman barely cracked the top-100 but he does have great length and athleticism, which could help him become a plus rim protector and rebounder. He’s not going to offer much in terms of scoring, but if Penn St wants to replicate their success of last year he may be the key.

Prediction:

My obvious worry is the weaknesses of this team a year ago are only going to be accentuated, as they are just going to really struggle to defend the paint and rebound. That’s not a good formula, especially for a group that shot just 33% from 3, good for 204th in the nation a year ago. I think they have a strong backcourt, but the inefficiency, just 85th last year, and the inability to gain extra possessions via offensive rebounds is just a bad pairing for a team that also isn’t going to defend at a high level. Maybe they climb a spot or two by season’s end, but truly I just don’t see how you make it in this league without some sort of inside presence to help you out. How are they going to guard the bigs around this league? It’s just not going to happen, and without a top-10 or so offense you just are going to be reeling all Conference season long. That’s my prediction, even with them being a pesky team again it’s just not going to be enough to make up for their deficiencies inside. I do believe in Rhoades as a coach, but you have to have the horses and he just doesn’t.

18.) Minnesota (NR)

State of the Program:

Ben Johnson enters year 4 as the head man at Minnesota off of what was by far his best season here, winning 9 Conference games after just a combined 6 such wins in his first 2 campaigns. They were better in basically every statistical way, but still overall were just 78th in overall efficiency and still really struggled defensively. Also, much of what led to that success has left the program, including PG Elijah Hawkins whose 7.5 assists per game helped make them 4th overall in the Nation in assist ratio. Gone with him are a total 6 of the 8 guys who started multiple games for them last year, so aside from returnees Dawson Garcia and Mike Mitchell it’s essentially a complete rebuild. Now, those two make a very solid 1-2 punch at the top, but after that it’s really all mid-major transfers, with the exception being Oregon transfer Brennan Rigsby who has shown flashes of being a good scorer but not on a consistent basis. I’m not going to sit here and claim to know everything about all of these transfers, because I actually did not watch Canisius/Charlotte/UTSA last year, so I’m not sure what they’ve got, but given the transfer talent elsewhere in this Conference this crop doesn’t exactly jump off the page. Let me summarize it like this, per On3, they rank 18th of out of 18 Big Ten teams in commitment talent per their rankings. That’s not promising, especially returning just 2 guys who had major roles from a year ago.

Prediction:

I think it’s pretty obvious by their last place ranking I don’t have high hopes for the Gophers this year. Johnson is struggling to bring in talent, and while Garcia and Mitchell do make a nice combo for them offensively, you have to wonder how they’re going to make up for the lost production overall. They were a terrible defensive unit a year ago, and have been ranked > 100 on that end each of Johnson’s 3 seasons. In the Big 10 that’s just not going to cut it, especially when you haven’t proven to be able to score at an elite level like an Iowa for example. No defense, mid-major guard talent and essentially 1 proven guy in Dawson Garcia is a recipe for disaster. This may be Johnson’s last year here, as I would assume by year 4 you’d expect them to get somewhere near bubble conversations at the very least, especially after firing Pitino who made the dance twice here. It’s been a rough go for Gopher fans, who haven’t seen their team get out of the first round of the tourney since 1997 when Clem Haskins took them to the Final 4. In fact, since then they’ve seen just 2 tourney wins, so the darkness continues to cast over what would be a fun program to see get rolling, as that arena can be a fun environment when it’s rocking. Maybe next year.