Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 8 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (13-0) Off (18) Def (1) – FLYER
   • We all know what Houston is about, and they flexed those muscles in their 1 win since we last met, holding Penn to just 42 points en route to a 39 point W. The amazing stat is they won the possession battle by 24, dominating the offensive glass and forcing 22 TO’s. They also did this without 2 major pieces in J’Wan Roberts and Terrance Arceneaux. Of course, it was a home game against an Ivy League school, but still, they continue to look like one of the greatest defensive units we’ve seen in a long time. We talked about the historical numbers they have thus far last week, but we continue to call them a flyer due to that offensive number. To reiterate the problem, it’s simply putting the ball in the basket, shooting just 49% from 2 (209^th), 35% from 3 (112^th) and just 66% from the line (318^th). Just the FT number alone could be a major detriment in March, but we’re going to find out real quick how concerning all that will be as Big 12 season kicks off. They get WVU at home (easy W) but then their first true test on the road against Iowa St Tuesday night. Watch that one closely, should be a rock fight.
2. Purdue: (14-1) Off (2) Def (7) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Boilers continue to look like the most complete team in the Nation while picking up 2 Big Ten wins this week. The road win over Maryland was easy as the Terps never led, and the Illinois score looks much closer than it really was, as the Illini also never led but closed the gap late as the Boilers took their foot off the gas. The concern with Purdue is always smaller teams that can play 5-out offensively, because that puts big Zach Edey in a glaring mismatch defensively. Last year FDU took advantage of that better than Purdue was able to take advantage of Edey’s size on the other end. That problem poked its head again late in the Illinois game as the Illini went small and scored in bunches. The difference for the Boilers this year is outside shooting, which has improved from last year’s 32% to 39%. If teams take away Edey with a double or just fronting and over helping, outside shots are open, just have to knock them down. This year, to this point, that is the biggest improvement, with defense being right behind. They get a pesky Nebraska team on the road this week followed by a down Penn St at home. Look out for Nebraska though, that is an interesting test for this group.
3. Arizona: (11-3) Off (5) Def (3) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Arizona is somewhat of an enigma this year, losing by 18 to Stanford while giving up 100 points, right after I pointed out that suspect defense, but then coming back and beating Colorado by 47. When they’re locked in, they’re as good as anyone, but when they don’t show up defensively anyone can beat them. That’s a scary thing when thinking about March. Yes the defensive number says they’re an elite team, but that’s on the average, and there have been 3 nights out of 14 where they didn’t show up defensively and each time gave up 90+ points an a loss. Yes the data says impenetrable, but you can’t ignore the inconsistency when you’re talking about a team you’re counting on to win 4 or 5 or 6 high leverage games in a row come March. I’m going to be watching them really closely as they navigate Pac-12 play, as I just can’t see that #3 number staying that high over the course of the next 17 games.
4. BYU: (12-1) Off (8) Def (10) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I’ve been on an island beating the BYU drum since the pre-season when I was roasted for having the audacity to even have them finishing in the top half of the Big 12. Even a couple BYU fans on Redditt called me crazy, and maybe they’re right, but all indications thus far is BYU is even better than I thought they’d be. There is however still doubt, as their schedule has been weak thus far, but here comes the Big 12 schedule with all its might, so over the next 18 games we’re going to find out if this is for real. On the docket this week is Cincy at home and then their toughest test thus far with a trip to Waco on Tuesday. There’s no hiding now, it’s sink or swim for the Cougars.
5. UConn: (13-2) Off (4) Def (35) – FLYER
   • The Huskies have bounced back and reeled off 3 in a row after dropping one to Seton Hall. This week DePaul was expected, but the road win over a frisky Butler team was big for them to build some momentum. The one thing I’m watching with this group is that defensive number, as it has ballooned from 23 to 35 after the two games this week. Now, you could attribute that to the absence of Donovan Clingan, who is averaging multiple blocks per game and helps them on the glass, but either way, it’s the only thing to monitor with this team as we know they can score. They keep getting better too as the FR Stephon Castle gets healthy and comfortable, so once Clingan returns they’re going to be tough to slow down. This week they have another average team on the road in Xavier and then a cupcake with Georgetown.
6. Alabama: (8-5) Off (1) Def (71) – VULNERABLE
   • Since we last met Alabama absolutely torched Liberty, who is a very good mid-major team, so a 45 point is an attention grabber. The defensive number improved, but still isn’t good enough to trust this group with a 10-foot pole. There isn’t much new to say, we know they play fast and can score, but the question still remains if they can improve enough defensively to be a true threat come March. This week they get a bad Vandy team on the road and then a decent S. Carolina at home in what shouldn’t be anything other than a 2-0 week. If it’s not that, then I would imagine they didn’t defend and gave up 90 points in a loss. That’s how they will lose games they shouldn’t, if they do. We shall find out.
7. Illinois: (11-3) Off (6) Def (19) – FLYER
   • The Illini are an interesting story right now, as they’ve played 3 games now without their leading scorer Terrance Shannon Jr and seemingly have been better offensively without him. Since last week their offensive number climbed from 19 to 6, as guys like Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier and Justin Harmon have filled the gap and the ball is moving much better. They destroyed Northwestern by 30, and then battled back against Purdue on the road in what was their toughest game on the schedule. No shame in losing that one. The bottom line is there’s a ton of talent on this roster, and without the standing around watching Shannon they seem to be playing a bit better. It’s still early on without him, but another massive test with white hot Sparty coming to Champaign this week will be a great example of what to expect from the new look Illini.
8. Tennessee: (10-3) Off (31) Def (2) – FLYER
   • As we’ve been saying for the last couple of year’s it’s all about the offense for the Vols, as we know they’re going to be one of the best defensive teams in the Country. This is the best they’ve looked on that end during this era under Barnes, and most of that can be attributed to newcomer Dalton Knecht, who leads them in scoring. They’ve won 6 in a row, but the schedule is about to ramp up in the SEC, with undefeated Ole Miss coming in and then a trip to Mississippi St this week. We are going to find out real quick if they can score well enough to win tough games, as we know Chris Beard led teams are going to defend and of course that’s Miss St’s calling card as well. 2 rock fights in store, must-see TV all week.
9. Duke: (10-3) Off (10) Def (25) – FLYER
   • Duke had a dominant week with 2 blowout wins over Queens (yawn) and then Syracuse, which was far more impressive. The FR Jared McCain is the story right now, as he’s been on fire during this 5-game winning streak, scoring in double figures in each game and is now shooting 47% from 3 on the season. He’s now starting over a healthy Tyrese Proctor and the Dukies are better for it. I still question their toughness, and it’s not really going to get tested much in the ACC, but I wonder how they’d fare against a Tennessee or Houston who brings such physicality. They don’t offensive rebound well, and the defense can go through lazy stretches, but you can definitely tell they’re improving as these FR come along. Trips to Notre Dame and Pitt await this week, but if they are who they think they are it should be a 2-0 week.
10. Auburn: (11-2) (16) (18) – FLYER
    • Finding Auburn in the top-10 is surprising to me, as they really haven’t picked up an impressive win and have a bad loss to App St out there. However, since that loss they have been dominating bad teams, with 6 wins in a row, all by 16+ points including wins over IU and USC (neither in the tourney as of today). Like with all the other top-10 teams life is about to get much more difficult, with a trip to Arkansas up next and then Texas A&M coming to town. I wouldn’t be shocked if they went 0-2, but a 1-1 split could be good enough to keep them hanging on to top-10 status. Their strength is their pace, behind FR guard Aden Holloway as well as their strength inside with Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams. The glaring weakness is 3 point shooting, just 33% (174^th) and they’ve put teams at the line too much, ranking 270^th in FT’s given up. Free points given and missing shots on the other end is a recipe for L’s to stack up. We’ll see if it haunts them in SEC play.
11. UNC: (10-3) (12) (26) – FLYER
12. Marquette: (11-3) (26) (9) – FLYER
13. Wisconsin: (10-3) (14) (29) – FLYER
14. Baylor: (11-2) (3) (72) – VULNERABLE
15. Kansas: (12-1) (39) (5) – FLYER
16. Creighton: (10-4) (20) (20) – FLYER
17. Michigan St: (9-5) (32) (8) – FLYER
18. Iowa St: (11-2) (46) (4) – FLYER
19. Kentucky: (10-2) (9) (48) – FLYER
20. FAU: (11-3) Off (15) Def (44) – FLYER

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, but over the course of the next 8 weeks or so we are going to encapsulate the journey some of these teams take entering March. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (12-0) Off (16) Def (1) – FLYER
   • Once again, we find a Kelvin Sampson led Houston team as the statistical darlings of the first 2 months of the season. What is happening with this iteration of the Cougars is especially noteworthy though, as their defensive rating would be the best by any team since 2019 Texas Tech, who lost to Virginia in the National Championship. Where they dominate is the same as it has been for years under Sampson, with stifling defense and a relentless attack of the offensive glass. For a team that has nobody over 6’8” the way they can dominate the boards is unlike anything I’ve seen in college hoops. It’s a team mentality, a 5 man war that if you’re not ready for you’re going to get smushed. They also have one of the better guard duos in LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead, but the emergence of Emanuel Sharp has been the surprise of the season and if he can continue to be that 3^rd offensive option Houston can be a real threat. That’s the real question for this Houston team, can they consistently be good enough offensively, to go on a run. That 16^th ranking is what’s keeping them from the impenetrable category. The struggles have been from the FT line, shooting only 66% and from inside the 3-point line, where they’re shooting just 49%, good for 212^th in the Country. Last year they were 73% from the line and 53% from 2. Those numbers are going to be the numbers to watch, as they assuredly look to improve offensively despite how dominate they can be defensively, because in their new Conference the Big 12 there are teams who play wide open and can really score. For now, they are as reliable of a flyer that there can be, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them creep into Impenetrable status in the weeks to come.
2. Purdue: (12-1) Off (2) Def (9) – IMPENETRABLE
   • The Boilermakers, outside of one night at Northwestern, have looked the part of the #1 team in the Country. They’ve amassed 5 Q1 wins thus far, 3 of which were over teams also found in this top-10. Zach Edey is doing what he does, the difference this year is the play of PG Braden Smith and G’s Fletcher Loyer and transfer Lance Jones. Smith is playing like one of the best pure PG’s in the country, averaging 7 apg and shooting over 40% from 3, huge improvements over his FR campaign. Loyer’s improvements driving the ball to score and the addition of Jones, who excels in that area, has helped as well. Last year it was dump it in to Edey or hope for a clean look from 3, which is great until you fail to hit open shots. This year they can attack the basket much better, with Smith, Loyer and Jones all threats to get to the rim and score, and of course Edey is there to clean things up if they miss. They are also running much more ball screen action with Smith and Edey, which adds just one more thing defenses have to worry about, as Smith has been excellent scoring and dishing out of that. As we enter January this is the team to beat in college basketball, as they have also been a very good team defensively as well, even while playing teams like Arizona, Alabama and Marquette who are elite offensive teams. Everyone likes to make fun of the Boilers and rightfully so after last year, but I think that is fueling this version of Purdue. We shall see.
3. Arizona: (10-2) Off (6) Def (2) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I will be honest, I watched Purdue beat Arizona in person, and that fact alone is probably the only reason I give Purdue the nod as the team to beat in the Country. The data says Arizona may be more reliable, as they’re top-6 on both offense and defense thus far. You can’t even look and say well they’ve played a weak schedule like Houston, they’ve played 6 Q1 games, going 4-2. The one thing that seemed to be an issue in those losses was their defensive intensity, which is surprising given that #2 defensive rank. But, in those two losses they gave up 92 and 96 points respectively. Granted, they play at a lightning pace so their scoring is going to be inflated, I still think that’s a number to watch as the season progresses. The additions of Caleb Love and Keshad Johnson have added some swagger and toughness to this group which was desperately needed after the past couple of seasons when I described Arizona as soft. With Ballo and Johnson inside, you can no longer say that. Love, Larsson and the emerging Kylan Boswell give Arizona a guard trio as good as any in the Country, and they have depth as well playing 9 guys most nights, all of which are extremely talented. So far, the Tommy Lloyd era has been great in the regular season, but they are just 2-2 in the big dance despite being a 1 and 2 seed. This may be his best team yet, but it all hinges on March. Stay tuned.
4. BYU: (11-1) Off (12) Def (7) – IMPENETRABLE
   • I’m going to toot my own horn here for a second, as I took a lot of flak from the Big 12 community when I posted my Big 12 preview and had BYU 6^th. The thought of BYU in the top half of the Conference was the one prediction I received the most criticism for, and here we are. Apparently I was the only one outside of Provo who saw this train coming, and frankly I probably was still off the mark as they look like they can be right there with Houston and Kansas at the top of the Conference. Now, I don’t expect them to be a dominant top-5 team at the end of February, but the way they have dismantled a relatively easy schedule should at least gain them some credit. They are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Country, at nearly 38% as a team, and have been playing down multiple impact players, most notably starting F Fousseyni Traore. They also just welcomed back transfer guard Dawson Baker who scored in double figures in all but 3 games last year for UC Irvine, shooting 38% from 3. Not to mention talented FR Marcus Adams just made his debut in their last game. This was a very young team a year ago who brought back a ton of talent, shored up some holes and has catapulted itself into national relevance. The one loss to Utah was tough, as they shot just 23% from 3 and were without Traore, who is a force in the paint, but I expect this team to just continue to improve. The Big 12 is obviously going to be tough but they are equipped to be a top-4 team in this conference.
5. UConn: (11-2) Off (4) Def (23) – FLYER
   • This year’s version of UConn has received a ton of praise, and I’ll be the first to admit they’ve looked better than I thought they would. I put a future on Marquette in the Big East before the season, and still think it’s between them and UConn. What worries me about the Huskies is their lack of 3-point shooting, just 32% on the year and the defense that seems to come and go. They’ve gotten away with their poor shooting by being a top-10 team on the offensive glass, but as the schedule toughens up in the Big East, I worry that may catch up with them. And then there’s that defense, which just last week gave up 75 points to a meh Seton Hall team on just 62 possessions. They’re also getting some early credit for beating teams like IU/Texas/Gonzaga who are all big programs that are not nearly as good as you might think. I’m taking a pause on this group, even though they have talent, with Clingan, Newton, Karaban and the talented FR Castle back in the fold, I just want to see more. They have a ton of guys who are attempting to step into more prominent roles, so with time they may start playing much better. For now, I think 5^th is too high and could be more about where they started than how they’ve truly played. That will all get ironed out, so we’ll see if I’m on the right track with this one in the weeks to come.
6. Tennessee: (9-3) Off (31) Def (4) – FLYER
   • Well Rick Barnes continues to employ a culture with Tennessee that is an absolute nightmare to play against and to watch frankly. The defense is great, super physical and a ton of FT’s if the refs want to prevent a game from becoming an all out brawl. That’s nothing new though, what is a little different is we see that offensive number in a much better position than year’s past. I have avoided Tennessee like the plague the last couple of tourney’s due to their inability to score, and it has prevented them from making deep runs. This year they’ve added a guy in Dalton Knecht that has drastically improved their ability to score, and with Josiah-Jordan James healthy and shooting 43% from 3 there’s clearly been improvement on that end thus far. I still am not overly confident that once Big 12 season play gets rolling that number is going to continue to look good, as there’s a ton of pressure on Knecht to create. They need Vescovi to start playing better, he’s shooting just 30% from 3 after shooting 38% over his career. There’s potential for things to get better, but also to regress, I’m not sure how it’ll go but one thing is for sure is they’ll continue to be a lockdown defensive group that drags you into the depths of hell with their physicality. It’s all about making shots consistently for the Vols, new year, same story.
7. Illinois: (10-2) Off (19) Def (17) – FLYER
   • I was starting to gain some confidence in Illinois as the clear contender to Purdue in the Big Ten, but the recent suspension of Terrence Shannon Jr, for what seems like a long time, casts some doubt. He was a do everything guy for them and I’m not sure just how far they are going to fall without him. They have a lot of talent outside of him, and won game 1 without him by 30 points so it’s possible they’re still a threat. It’s just hard to imagine they’re 7^th best good without a 20 ppg scorer. This is a wait and see situation.
8. Alabama: (7-5) Off (1) Def (91) – VULNERABLE
   • If you’ve ever read anything I’ve written about Alabama you’d know I love Nate Oats. The style they play is right up my alley and frankly is just analytically sound. This year there’s some major issues though on the defensive end, which hasn’t always been the case in the past with Oats. Normally these Alabama teams play aggressive, force turnovers and when they do get beat have the shot blockers inside to bail them out. None of that is the case this year. They can score with anybody, but as we’ve seen they just cannot stop anyone, as Purdue, Arizona, Creighton, Clemson and Ohio State all scored 85+ points. They may be the best offense in the Country, but they will not find success unless they start getting stops. They aren’t forcing turnovers, they’re giving up offensive rebounds, it’s just a disaster, and I’m sure Oats would echo the same sentiment. Do not trust the Tide unless they start defending, that’s all you can say.
9. Duke: (8-3) Off (11) Def (29) – FLYER
   • Duke has been an odd team this year, as I thought they’d be one of the best 2 or 3 teams in the Country with all of their returning talent. But, here we sit with them having losses to Arkansas and Ga Tech, both not in my current bracketology field. They do have a good win over Baylor most recently that got them back into the top-10, but so far I have been disappointed in the Blue Devils. They have a fairly easy start to ACC play, but if they don’t toughen up defensively they may run into some trouble as the season goes on. Filipowski is a good scorer, but man he does not like contact, and that passiveness seems to be leaking to the rest of the team. Proctor has been hurt for 3 games and it might be the best 3 game stretch of the season for the Blue Devils, as the FR guards McCain and Foster are getting more time and playing really well alongside Roach. It’s a young group, but with so many SO’s back from last year’s team you’d expect to have seen some progress, but it really seems like more of the same. Good but not great.
10. FAU: (10-2) Off (10) Def (31) – FLYER
    • After an early season loss to Bryant the Owls were 49^th in KP’s rankings, they’ve since gone on a tear, including an OT win over Arizona to lift them into the top-10. They’re no longer the Cinderella, and with all their guys back from last year’s Final 4 run, this group looks poised to go on another run. It’s all about dominating Conference play now though, as they’ve gone through the Gonzaga style schedule of loading up the non-con to make up for the weak Conference competition. They really only have Memphis to deal with in the AAC, so it’s all about staying focused and taking care of business. This is an elite offensive team, as we saw last March, but if they just show up defensively over the next 6-8 weeks then we could see them as high as a 2 or 3 seed with those wins over Arizona and Texas A&M. Dusty May is going to be the most coveted HC there is in college hoops if this train keeps rolling. What a story.
11. Auburn: (9-2) (18) (19) – FLYER
12. Marquette: (10-3) (24) (14) – FLYER
13. Iowa St: (10-2) (40) (5) – FLYER
14. UNC: (9-3) (8) (39) – FLYER
15. Wisconsin: (9-3) (13) (37) – FLYER
16. Kansas: (11-1) (35) (6) – FLYER
17. Creighton: (9-3) (17) (25) – FLYER
18. Baylor: (10-2) (3) (71) – VULNERABLE
19. Kentucky: (10-2) (7) (54) – VULNERABLE
20. Clemson: (11-1) (15) (33) – FLYER

It’s late-December and the college hoops landscape is beginning to take shape, as some of the over-hyped pre-season darlings have shown us who they really are (shoutout Sparty) and the unlikely stars have shown themselves (hello Oklahoma). But everyone knows the entire season in CBB is a lead-up to the only thing that truly matters, March Madness. Every year is a race to figure out which teams “deserve” what seed and who among them are built to avoid the early round upset. Many will try and convince you it’s all random, that the best team doesn’t actually win and that the upsets and format diminish the significance of the glory found at the end of the most difficult 6-game winning streak to obtain in sports. I mean for crying out loud they lost to their mom in their family bracket challenge and she picked based on Mascots! It must be random. While I recognize losing to someone who happened to pick Peacocks (St. Peter’s) to beat Wildcats (Kentucky) can lead to this kind of thinking, I’m here to tell you definitively how to avoid betting on a doomed horse come March. I’m not going to give you a sure fire way to know every upset, nor am I claiming to have the ability to get a perfect bracket. I’m more concerned with how to avoid backing a severely vulnerable horse to make a deep run. How to spot the group of teams that look destined for trouble that wild 1st weekend we all love. This will be a purely data driven set of rules, based on pre-tourney Kenpom numbers heading back to 2005. 18 tournaments worth of data now that helps paint a picture on how to spot what teams could face trouble, what teams are impenetrable, and finally put to rest “the best team doesn’t actually win” narrative. Let’s get it.

To start let’s take a look at the most generic pool, the teams that entering the Madness were measuring as the best teams in the Country per Kenpom. So we’ll take the top-10 teams each year, giving us 180 teams and leaving out all of the rest. For context, that pool of teams includes 69 of the 72 1 seeds in our data (the other 3 all failed to make the Final Four) and extends all the way down to a couple 8 seeds (1 of which made a Sweet 16 run). I could go on and on with little nuggets of information, how 25 of the 36 teams to reach the Natty over this 18 years come from this pool and so on and so on, but what really matters is how do we parse down this group into the pretenders and contenders. Is there an analytical approach to identifying which of those top teams will survive the chaos of the tourney? Of course, that’s why we’re here.

Rule #1: Don’t back the Vulnerable

First, let’s look at those that didn’t make a run. There have only been 18 teams out of the 180 that entered as top-10 KP teams who have failed to get out of the 1st round (10%). Kenpom, for those who don’t know, ranks teams by taking each team and giving a Defensive efficiency score and an Offensive efficiency score, culminating in an overall efficiency. When you look at the data on those 18 teams, something jumps out immediately. Many of the teams who suffered a 1st round exit leaned heavily on 1 end of the floor. Recent example, 2021 Ohio St who as a 2 seed lost to 15 seed Oral Roberts. They ranked 4th offensively but 79th defensively (7th overall). They were what I would now categorize as “vulnerable”, and share that unbalanced distinction with other early exiter’s like 2014 Duke, 2013 Georgetown and 2012 Missouri as just a few of many examples. Now listen, I understand that those are merely anecdotes, but we’re going to get number heavy just so it can sink in, because I know that savvy readers could look back at 2023 and see San Diego St at 64 (D) and 10 (O) and think, well this is a crock of shit. Allow me to persuade you, with data, not just anecdotal examples. Since 2005, there have been 56 teams enter the tourney as a top-10 defensive team but sub-50 on offense. The Aztecs became just the 1st to reach the Natty with that archetype, and only the 3rd to ever make it to the Final Four (2012 Louisville, 2017 S. Carolina). Next you might say, well I can ride them to the Elite 8 or Sweet 16 and still be fine? I wouldn’t. Of those 56, just 14 (25%) made it out of the first weekend alive and into the Sweet 16, with just 6 making it to the Elite 8. When you flip it over, the numbers tell the exact same story. With 72 teams entering with top-10 Off and sub-50 Def, we see only 2 of those 72 (2.7%) reached the Final Four. Following the same path, we saw just 26 of the 72 (36%) make it out of the first weekend with just 8 reaching the Elite 8. Now, after all of that you might be asking, so how does this help me? Let’s look at an example, with Baylor a year ago being a dramatic example. They entered as a 3 seed, with the 2nd ranked offense in the Country, but 102nd defensively. They lost in the 2nd round, failing to get out of that first weekend. There are obviously going to be exceptions to the rule, but we’re talking about consistency over time, and this archetype is by far the least consistent group of teams hiding amongst the “elite”. These are teams that you should not trust to make a deep run, and should never pick to win the whole thing as it has never happened.

Rule #2: Bet on the Impenetrable

As you’ve likely gathered if you’ve made it this far we are trying to separate the wheat from the chaff, to establish a set of standards for identifying the uncommon amongst the uncommon. Time to shift the focus to the archetype I have deemed as the “impenetrable”. These are the teams you can back with certainty, and no I’m not just saying the four 1 seeds. We’re going to stay with Kenpom and our 18 years of data, focusing on the antithesis of the vulnerable. Teams who were top-15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. There have been 55 such teams over the last 18 tournaments, none of them lost in the 1st round. This group ranges from 1 seeds all the way down to a couple of 5 seeds, with results similar regardless of seed. Now, once we move beyond the 1st round things get interesting. Again, I’m not arguing for perfection, but 46/55 teams made it to the 2nd weekend. That’s an 84% clip, but it does put a small ounce of doubt in these teams. But the fact is there have been 99 top-4 seeds get upset prior to the Sweet 16, only 9 of those were from this group. All this does is help you identify which of those top 16 teams is most likely to survive and advance, because if you’re looking at the top seeds, and find a team that is top-15 in both, you’ve found a gem. Much like 2022 Houston, who was a 5 seed, you would have thought they had merely a 34% chance to make the Sweet 16 (5 seeds odds). But, with the top-15 in both you had more confidence they make the Elite 8 than the average 5 seed had to get out of the first weekend. And that’s exactly what they did, upsetting 1 seed Arizona in the process. The data is clear, if you’re trying to identify who is going to escape the carnage of the first weekend, this is the group with the best statistical chance to do so. Once you’re in the Sweet 16, it’s anybody’s game, and you’re still well over 50% on getting to the Elite 8. In my book, a team falling in these archetype is an auto Final 4 prediction, or else you might as well just flip coins.

Rule #3: Stop trying to predict the Cinderella

We all love the Cinderalla, the Loyola Chicago or Butler magical runs that captivate us all. But, you have to acknowledge there is no possible way to know, for sure, who is going on that run. So why send a 6 seed to the Final Four? Why take a 30th overall team on a deep run? You don’t know. Yes there is going to be one, in fact over the last 18 tournaments only twice have all 4 Final Four teams been in the top-10 of Kenpom (last time 2008). There is always 1 outsider that makes a run, rarely two, 2023 aside. The real trick are the “flyers”. Teams who go on runs but don’t fall into the perfect category, they are the hardest to spot, but you’ll need to try because the list of impenetrable teams can be small. The data is more murky on these teams, but when taking out the Cinderella’s (6 seeds and below) and the Impenetrables, we have a list of teams that you can find some trends with. They most often are elite at 1 end of the floor (top-10) and/or on the fringes of our top-15 in both category archetype. Focus on these after that first group, do not be a hero.

So, what this series will be all about is tracking those teams in and around the top-10, who is falling out who is rising in. Definitively labeling those who are “vulnerable” and those who appear “impenetrable”. All will be ebbing and flowing throughout the season but the once a week recap to be found here will be a great barometer for what teams are trending which way and how they look heading into March. And eventually it will be measured against the actual tournament, and the actual results. Year 19 of data to come, but this year we enter with a game plan to stop losing your bracket pool or fantasy league to the all the people who don’t even watch the sport.

1. Michigan (5-0)
   • Listen, the Wolverines have been the most dominant team in the Country and yes it’s been against a bad schedule but they’ve treated the bad schedule the way a #1 team should. Teams below them have all had struggles against bad teams, so regardless of who they’ve done it against, it’s still been dominant football. Like we’ve been saying the real season begins 11/11, but continued domination until then will keep them here. Next up, Minnesota, night night.  
2. Florida St (4-0)
   • Outside of the near loss to lowly BC, the Seminoles have looked like a true title contender, with wins over LSU and Clemson, that should age pretty well, especially with Clemson looking much better recently. They had an off week but are now diving into the ACC schedule with a cupcake of VT at home. Not going to tell us much, but it would be nice to see them put up a crooked number on a bad team.
3. Texas (5-0)
   • Texas has obviously been awesome, and a blowout of a frisky Kansas team is just another notch on the bedpost for a team that is clearly National title good. You’re splitting hairs with the top-3 and a lot of people would say Texas’ resume should earn them the #1, but in terms of who I genuinely think is better, this is where they fall. Huge game this weekend though, with Oklahoma up next in a massive matchup.
4. Georgia (5-0)
   • It’s finally time to drop Georgia, and while they still deserve the benefit of the doubt they have now struggled with Auburn and S. Carolina…2 below average teams. We’ve seen A&M handle Auburn and UNC/Tennessee handle S. Carolina with more ease, and you could argue Georgia just gets everyone’s best shot, but they haven’t looked like a #1. The upset is coming, and maybe it’ll be Kentucky this weekend. I doubt it, but Ole Miss and Tennessee are lurking.
5. Penn St (5-0)
   • Penn St hasn’t been quite as dominant as a team like Michigan but every 4^th quarter it has been comfortable thus far. Last week was no exception, even though they allowed Northwestern to hang around for a little it was still a 28 point win. They have a bye week and then UMass before things really ratchet up with a trip to Columbus. I still think they can knock off the Buckeyes, so I can’t wait for 10/21.
6. Ohio St (4-0)
   • Unlike Michigan, Ohio St has a tough October, with Maryland, Penn St at home and then trips to Purdue and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have a lot more meat on their resume bone, I just don’t think they get through the slate clean. The defense has improved, but I’m not sold on McCord and this offense, especially against a team like Wisconsin and even more so Michigan. This week against Maryland is an interesting one, because the Terrapins have looked really good. Watch out.
7. Washington (5-0)
   • The Huskies survived a trip to Arizona, although the score doesn’t quite reflect how not close the game actually was. Zona scored late to cut from 14 to 7 but there was only a minute left, still though not a dominant performance and their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They get a bye week before Oregon comes to town in a clash of titans next Saturday.
8. Oregon (5-0)
   • Outside of the trip to Texas Tech where they had to scrap out a tough W, the Ducks have been absolutely dominant. Last week was no exception with a 42-6 drubbing of Stanford and Bo Nix looks like a true Heisman contender. They are off this weekend and then head to Washington in a massive game for the Pac-12 and the overall CFP race. A road win over Washington and they’re in the driver’s seat in this Conference.
9. USC (5-0)
   • Of the Pac-12 teams USC clearly has the best QB and probably the most dynamic offense, but their defense is beyond bad. They almost allowed Colorado to come back and win last week in a 48-41 win. They get Arizona this week so that should be another win, but that trip to ND is looming and I’m not sure they can get out of South Bend alive.
10. Notre Dame (5-1)
    • The Irish have a really good team this year but man this schedule is brutal, as they’ve now played 2 ranked teams in Ohio St and Duke, get Louisville on the road this week who is 5-0 and have USC around the corner. Not to mention a trip to Clemson is still out there. Comparing that to what Michigan has done and you could argue a 10-2 ND team could have a better resume than a 11-1 Michigan team. That’ll all settle out, but ND gets fighting and I don’t see Louisville knocking them off.
11. Oklahoma (5-0)
    • It’s prove-it weekend for Oklahoma as they have started off much improved over last year, but now in Texas they finally play a legit contender. Gabriel has been good, but the biggest change is on defense, as that side has looked completely different. However, in Texas they get one of the most dynamic offenses in the Country, with an emerging Quinn Ewers and an elite WR group. It may come down to Gabriel and this O-Line, as Texas has been able to dominate up front all season. Huge game, huge measuring stick for this program and Venables.
12. Miami (FL) (4-0)
    • The Hurricanes aren’t getting the respect they should, as the AP has them 17, behind teams like Bama, Oregon St and Ole Miss who all have 1 loss. Miami beat a very good Texas A&M team, a win that is going to age like fine wine. They get a bad GA Tech team this weekend in what should be a huge W to setup a massive game @ UNC next weekend. That’s where they can officially declare themselves contenders in the ACC.
13. Washington St (4-0)
    • The Cougars have 2 wins over teams I have in the top-25, Oregon St and Wisconsin, but somehow they are 3.5 point dogs against UCLA. Vegas isn’t buying this team, but I think they can easily go in and beat UCLA. Will they? That’s another question, but a 3.5 point dog is still a disrespectful line for a team that has played this well on the field. It’ll be a shootout, but if Ward plays well they can keep up with anybody.
14. Oregon St (4-1)
    • The Beavers bounced back after a road loss to Wazzu by knocking off Utah. They had the most success of any offense against Utah’s vaunted defense. DJ looked good enough, but it’s the O-line and Martinez running the rock that impressed the most. Utah had been the best team in the Nation defending the run, and this O-line opened up massive holes early. Utah started to clamp down but still they were good enough, and this defense was good enough to get a 21-7 win. Up next is Cal and then UCLA at home so they should keep it rolling.
15. Alabama (4-1)
    • Bama has shown us who they are so far, a great defense with a shoddy offensive line and an average QB. They now go on the road to play Texas A&M, and I have already placed my ML bet on the Aggies. The line is closing, but I really don’t think this Bama team a title contender. They very well could go 10-2 and win the West, but I still think the Pac-12 trio, Big 10 trio, FSU and Texas are all better and there will be 4 teams from that group more deserving to be in the CFP. They can change my mind this weekend though.
16. Ole Miss (4-1)
    • The Rebels bounced back after the Bama loss to knock off LSU in what was a surprising finish. I didn’t realize how bad the LSU defense was, but if you give up 55 to anyone that’s bad. Ole Miss has an equally as bad defense though, so it’s hard to believe they march through the SEC schedule without dropping more games. The next few weeks are must-wins with Arkansas, Auburn and Vandy. Then the season gets real with A&M and Georgia back-to-back.
17. Duke (4-1)
    • Duke lost a heart breaker to ND but they clearly have proven they are a top-20 team and a force in the ACC. They are off this week but next up is NC St which should be another W, but a trip to Florida St is up after that. Do I believe they can win that game? Not really, but they’re good enough that I wouldn’t be shocked if they muck it up and make it a dog fight. The Dukies are no joke, and we’re talking football not hoops.
18. UNC (4-0)
    • The Tar Heels are technically undefeated but it hasn’t been all that pretty and it’s been against just an ok schedule. I don’t think they’re better than Miami or Duke and they play both later this season. They should beat Syracuse, although the Orange are frisky, but after that is Miami at home and that’s when we learn who the real contender is in the ACC outside of FSU. With Drake Maye you can’t ever count them out, but the defense doesn’t seem as improved as they need it.
19. Utah (4-1)
    • Is Cam Rising ever coming back? We’ve been hemming and hawing every week guessing if he would or wouldn’t, and without him Utah looks bad bad on offense. They hung around with Oregon St but man, these backup QB’s just aren’t good enough. The schedule is tough, but a bye week and home tilt with Cal buys them a little more time to get him back. Then they get USC and Oregon in back-to-back weeks, so they’re running out of time.
20. Wisconsin (3-1)
    • People wrote the Badgers off after a loss to Wazzu early in the year, but is a road loss to a clear top-20 team that bad? Especially with all the turnover and a new QB, it shouldn’t have been shocking, or season ending. Here’s my prediction for the Badgers, they rip off their next 3 (Rutgers, Iowa, @ Illinois) and are 6-1 with Ohio St coming to Madison. Look out, because that could be the game that shakes up the entire Big Ten.
21. Texas A&M (4-1)
    • The Aggies are getting over looked after the loss to a really good Miami team, but this weekend they have the chance to get back on the map. Max Johnson is just as good at QB as Weigmann so I’m not worries there, and the defense has been really good outside of the Miami game. Milroe is no Tyler Van Dyke, so as I said earlier I already have the ML bet placed, I’m just ready to enjoy a great W.
22. Mizzou (5-0)
    • Possibly the most surprising 5-0 team in the Country? I would say so, and the win over K-State stacks up better than some of these other surprise 5-0 teams. They have a massive test with LSU this weekend, but a win here and we have to start taking Mizzou more seriously. They’re 6.5 point home dogs though, so nobody is really buying them. Watch out LSU could be 3-3 after being pre-season top-10.
23. Kentucky (5-0)
    • Well Kentucky beat an average Florida team at home and now we have to question if they are for real or not once again. Last year the same thing happened and it didn’t come to fruition. Here we are again, but now they head to Georgia, where I feel we all come back to earth with Kentucky. Good team, well coached but just not good enough to beat great teams.
24. Maryland (5-0)
    • Maryland has been pretty dominant against a bad schedule, dropping 44 last week on an IU team that held Ohio St to 23. It’s unfortunate their first big game is in Columbus, as I just don’t think they have enough defense to knock them off. However, they host both Michigan and Penn St later this year. There are two teams who can rock the boat in the Big Ten and it’s Maryland and Wisconsin.
25. LSU (3-2)
    • I haven’t quite given up on LSU, despite the defense looking like swiss cheese I still think this offense is good enough to beat most teams in the Country. 2 tough losses to Ole Miss and Florida St aren’t enough to knock them out for me, but a loss to Mizzou would be the last straw. However, if they can go to Mizzou and win and then take down Auburn and Army then they’re 6-2 heading to Bama. That’s what I expect but stranger things have happened.

1. Georgia (4-0)
   • The Dawgs continue to roll, and a 28-point win over UAB isn’t going to be anything to write home about. This week they’re heading to Auburn in what should be at least a step up in competition. The Tigers haven’t looked great this year, but at least it’s a step up in competition for Georgia. They can’t just sleep walk through this, although they are a 14.5 point favorite.
2. Michigan (4-0)
   • Similar to Georgia the Wolverines continue to sail through the early part of the season. A 31-7 win over Rutgers, again, isn’t anything to write home about and this week a trip to Nebraska is more of the same. I don’t think Nebraska will score a TD this week, maybe not even a point. Michigan by a billion (17 point spread)
3. Florida St (4-0)
   • The Seminoles look like a homerun to get to the playoff at this point as they’re undefeated with their 2 toughest tests in LSU and @ Clemson already in the barn. It’s hard to imagine they win those games but somehow drop games like Duke/Miami at home or even @ Florida. I think we’re looking at a 12-0 FSU team that’s skating into the playoff.
4. Penn St (4-0)
   • The Nittany Lions just put everyone on alert in their 31-0 drubbing of Iowa. Look, I know it’s Iowa, but to just demolish them like that was very impressive. Drew Allar is the dude and this is the year for James Franklin if there ever was one. They get an awful Northwestern team this weekend, then a bye and UMass. That sets up 6-0 heading to Columbus in mid-October where they’ll have a legit chance to knock off the Buckeyes. We’ll have to wait until then for the true judgement.
5. Texas (4-0)
   • I think Quinn Ewers is the guy and now the Longhorns have the guys in the trenches that can compete with the big programs. With the Big 12 being a bit down this year, Texas looks very likely to make the Playoff, with really the biggest test being Oklahoma at home next weekend. They get Kansas at home this weekend, which should be another W. The game I’m circling besides the Red River is @ TCU in mid-November. If there’s a slip up that could be it.
6. Ohio St (4-0)
   • Well the Buckeyes did it, and while it wasn’t pretty and you could certainly argue ND lost the game more than Ohio St won it, a win is a win. They went on the road and pulled out a W against a very good team, and showed their defense can hold up a little better this year. ND still had 3 trips to FG range that amounted in 0 points, but again, a win is a win. McCord and the offense are still not what we’ve seen in the past, and I think that will catch up to them eventually.
7. Washington (4-0)
   • I bumped Washington up but these 3 upper tier Pac-12 teams are just so hard to judge right now. They all are electric offensively, it’s just hard to nail down which defense is the best of the bunch. Penix has been nails thus far but going to Arizona represents a challenge they haven’t seen this year. De Laura is a legit QB so we’ll get a little better feel on this Husky defense, but the tests will continue to grow down the road.
8. Oregon (4-0)
   • The Ducks shut up Colorado with a 42-6 drubbing, and they look like a legit Playoff contender. They have to go to Washington and Utah, and as I’ve been saying if they can pick one of those off and defend their home field that’s the path to the playoff. The fact is if a Pac-12 team is going to get in they have to win a road game against a top-15 team. Stanford this weekend should be another big win, but Washington is looming out there in Week 7.
9. USC (4-0)
   • The Trojan’s defense is probably the worst of the top teams in the Pac-12 and that’s why I’m not a believer in their playoff hopes. They have to go to Notre Dame and Oregon and also have to play Utah who they’ve struggled with. I can easily see 2 losses, despite having the sure-fire no. 1 pick in Caleb Williams. The offense is electric, but I just don’t think this defense can hold up against the big boys. They go to Colorado and the zoo that is Boulder this weekend, but honestly they shouldn’t be too worried as 21.5 point favorites.
10. Notre Dame (4-1)
    • Well my prediction fell flat, hand up, I was wrong. It was brutal to watch this ND offense get into plus territory 3 different times and wind up with 0 points. A missed FG and 2 4^th down failures cost them. Many will talk about the last drive where they didn’t run to force Ohio St to use their last TO, or the final plays with only 10 on the field, but those decisions to go instead of get points also loomed large. They shot themselves in the foot time after time, and it cost them. I think the Irish are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, they just have to run the table, which isn’t out of the question.
11. Utah (4-0)
    • This Utah defense is one of the best in the Country, but they have to get Rising back and it has to be this week. Going to Oregon St after they lost a tough game is a horrible spot, and to do that with your backup QB is a recipe for disaster. They’ve survived thus far, but they have to have him to win this week. This is one of those tough road games you have to win if you want to be in contention in this Conference. +3.5 looks real nice if Rising is playing, as this defense is elite.
12. LSU (3-1)
    • The Tigers didn’t really show up this weekend but the offense was able to carry them to a tough 34-31 win over Arkansas. The defense was again disappointing, and it’s hard to tell if it’s a bigger problem or they just don’t show up sometimes. Daniels and this offense are electric, but if they want to run the table in the SEC West and contend with Georgia, they have to figure this defense out and do it quickly. They have another test this weekend as they head to Ole Miss to face another great offense.
13. Oklahoma (4-0)
    • Everything is shaping up for an absolutely massive Red River Shootout in Week 6, as the Sooners continue to take care of business. The defense looks much improved and Gabriel is playing well. After last season’s disastrous defense, I didn’t have much hope but so far I’ve been pleasantly surprised. I think they can give Texas all they can handle, and they don’t have much to worry about this weekend with Iowa St.
14. Duke (4-0)
    • Well Duke has a chance to legitimize themselves as National contenders if they can knock off Notre Dame this weekend. This defense is legit, Riley Leonard and this offense is legit, but getting Notre Dame off of that tough loss is horrible timing. I think the Irish come out angry and that’s going to be tough for Duke to overcome. I expect a close game but Duke to lose. That doesn’t mean the Blue Devils are out of the ACC conversation by any means though, and I can legitimately see a 10-2 year.
15. Miami (FL) (4-0)
    • The team nobody is really talking about is Miami, but I think if anyone in the ACC can knock off the Seminoles it’s Miami. Tyler Van Dyke is playing as well as anyone in the Country and frankly the schedule isn’t that tough. They have to go to UNC and FSU, but other than those they’re all pretty easy wins. Win 1 of those road games and the Hurricanes are suddenly playoff contenders? It’s not out of the question.
16. Alabama (3-1)
    • This Alabama team looks more like the teams of old, strong defense and they have to run the ball to score. Milroe can be effective if he’s used as a running threat and then some orchestrated deep balls. He throws a beautiful deep ball, he just can’t read defenses or work through progressions. Run the ball, play action with some deep shots and they can beat most teams. I don’t think we see Bama in the Playoff, but 10-2 is out there, especially with this schedule. They get to beat up on Mississippi St this weekend before heading to Texas A&M, a very dangerous one.
17. Washington St (4-0)
    • Wazzu now has 2 pretty impressive home wins over Wisconsin and Oregon St. They have a tough schedule with trips to UCLA, Oregon and Washington left, but the fact 9-3 is on the table is a testament to Cam Ward and this offense. They are electric and were underrated, and pose a dangerous threat to these top teams looking to sneak into the Playoff.
18. UNC (4-0)
    • So far so good for the Tar Heels but I have less confidence in them than Duke/Miami. Drake Maye and the offense is electric, but the defense is bad. It’s better than last season, but still not great. There are some fun matchups on the docket, but a bye this week keeps them safe from upset 1 more week. They have home tilts with Syracuse and Miami after the bye, so it’s about to get real.
19. Syracuse (4-0)
    • The most underrated team in the Country is this Syracuse squad, as they’ve absolutely dominated everyone they’ve played. Garrett Schrader is playing really well, and they’ll have a ton of eyeballs on them this weekend to show out against Clemson. As 6.5 point home dogs I’m all over the spread, but it’s still a tough W for them to pull off. I think they can win outright, because this Clemson team is just not what we’re used to, and with 2 losses they certainly could be already thinking next year. Orange ML hit it.
20. Ole Miss (3-1)
    • The Rebels are just never good enough to beat elite teams, rinse and repeat. They can move the ball and outscore average and below teams but struggle with good teams like Bama and LSU. They just lost to Bama and now get LSU this weekend, so another loss should be on the docket. They could end up as a 7-win team, with a trip to Georgia still out there and games against Tx A&M and Arkansas. Stock trending down in my opinion, but the offensive ability keeps them at 20.
21. Oregon St (3-1)
    • The Beavers were in a shootout and couldn’t quite hang with Wazzu. It’s hard to punish them much, but the defense giving up 38 makes me lose a little faith. If Cam rising is back I can easily see them dropping a 2^nd game in a row. DJ just wasn’t good enough, despite a dominant O-line he just isn’t elite. They ran the ball well, but Utah is no joke and their defense can shut down Oregon St. Now, if they get Nate Johnson and not Rising, they could steal a very important one Friday night.
22. Florida (3-1)
    • A tough trip to Kentucky is on the docket, but this Florida team really has a chance to cement themselves as the 2^nd best team in the East. I’m not confident they will go to Kentucky and win, but the Wildcats haven’t exactly looked like world beaters. I’m on Kentucky -1.5, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Gators pulled it off. I just can’t trust Mertz on the road, and Stoops is a great coach. Tough one for Florida, but if they are a top-25 team this is one they should nab.
23. Mizzou (4-0)
    • I still don’t know that I fully believe in Mizzou but they’re 4-0 with a huge W over K-State. They had a clear let down spot game after the big win and they took care of business against Memphis too, so they clearly deserve to be here. Again, going to Vandy is one you have to have if you’re a top-25 team, but the Mizzou of old could lose this one. Upset alert no doubt.
24. Kansas (4-0)
    • Kansas has been really impressive this year, but a trip to Austin Texas is not what you want. They aren’t good enough defensively to beat this Texas team, but you hope they hang around and score with Texas if they really are a top-25 team. If they get blown out they will drop from these rankings, but I think Daniels and this offense can put up some points and hang around.
25. Wisconsin (3-1)
    • So the road loss to Wazzu is suddenly looking much better as time is moving on, and a road demolishing of Purdue has given me the confidence back in the Badgers. I had them as the West champs in preseason, but questioned it after that early loss. No more, this running attack is elite and the defense has a ton of playmakers on it. I’m not saying they’re going to beat Ohio St in Madison at the end of October, but that’s going to be a fun one.

1. Georgia (3-0)
   • At halftime this week most of the College Football world was shocked at what they were witnessing as the Dawgs were down 14-3 at home to S. Carolina. However, the second half version of Georgia that we saw was absolutely worthy of a #1 ranking, as they smushed the Gamecocks 21-0. It certainly made you pump the brakes a little and gave the rest of the Country some hope that the gap is much smaller than it has been in the past though. The offense isn’t as explosive, and Spencer Sanders was able to put up some numbers on this D. They have another cupcake with UAB up next, so for now they’re still you’re #1 for the foreseeable future.  
2. Michigan (3-0)
   • If the Wolverines had just played anyone with a pulse they may have an argument for #1 after Georgia played around with S. Carolina this weekend. But, alas, they have played nobody and frankly seem to be sleep walking through these games. JJ McCarthy had 3 picks against a bad Bowling Green team so they certainly have some question marks. The schedule is laughably easy though, with Rutgers, Minnesota, Nebraska, IU, Sparty and Purdue the next 6 games. They will be 9-0 on Nov. 11^th when they head to Happy Valley. That’s honestly when the season starts for Michigan.
3. Notre Dame (4-0)
   • The Irish started slow but with the huge matchup with Ohio St looming that’s not shocking. They dominated in the end a bad CMU team. This is the most balanced team in the Country, with a dominant running game and a QB that is putting up monster numbers as he has in his past. Hartman has a chance this weekend to put himself at the top of the Heisman race if he can lead ND to a W over the Buckeyes. This is a massive game that I have been predicting ND to win the whole year, so it’s about to get real.
4. Florida St (3-0)
   • The Seminoles barely survived a trip to a really bad BC team but at the end of the day a win is a win. Sometimes you don’t bring your best against bad competition, but hopefully this was a learning lesson that didn’t cost them too much. They have a massive game @ Clemson on Saturday, so of course the look ahead factor was there but they escaped and that’s all that matters. Now they get a chance to cement themselves as a top-5 team if they can go to Clemson and pull out a win.  
5. Penn St (3-0)
   • It was ugly but Penn St went on the road and got a Conference win over Illinois who is slightly above average at best. Allar didn’t look great for the 1^st time this year, but the defense was rock solid and as they continue to look like one of the more complete teams in the Country. Allar can beat you, the running backs can torch you and the defense is shutting people down. They have Iowa this weekend in Happy Valley who they should handle, and a couple more cupcakes before they head to Columbus to really see how they stack up.
6. Texas (3-0)
   • It was a sleepy performance from the Longhorns against Wyoming but they pulled away late and ultimately we won’t remember this game at all. You expect a college team to have a letdown after a massive win, but to still come away with a comfy win is a great sign these Longhorns belong in the elite category. They are massive favorites this weekend @ Baylor, who has struggled thus far including a loss to Texas St so anything but a comfy W would be a disappointment for this Texas team.  
7. USC (3-0)
   • A bye week doesn’t tell us anything obviously, but this weekend represents a tiny step up in competition with Arizona St. Now, the Sun Devils have looked pretty rough, but it’s still a Conference opponent on the road. The line just shocked me but 33.5 it is, so clearly this one should be over quickly once again. The real tests start the following week, as they get into the meat of their Pac-12 schedule by heading the circus that is Boulder, CO.
8. Oregon (3-0)
   • The Ducks got another comfy win and now things get fun again as they welcome Deion Sanders and Colorado to Eugene on Saturday. This one should be a shootout, as the line is 71.5 and surprisingly Oregon is favored by 3 touchdowns over a ranked team. Clearly the books aren’t buying the Buffs hype, but Bo Nix and Co. are going to need to put up a ton of points to win by that much I imagine. Sanders is a legit QB and Colorado has legit weapons, so this will be a fun measuring stick game for a couple of contenders in the Pac-12.
9. Washington (3-0)
   • Washington quietly is making a convincing argument for the Pac-12 favorite as Michael Penix Jr looks incredible and you could argue they have the best defense besides Utah in the Conference. They went to East Lansing and absolutely punked Sparty. Washington has 5 games left against ranked opponents, but this weekend they get an ok Cal team at home. Should be another W in dominant fashion.
10. Ohio St (3-0)
    • Well the Buckeyes finally showed their explosiveness in their mashing of W. Kentucky, but forgive me for not being overly impressed. W. Kentucky has a horrible defense, but nonetheless it at least showed McCord has some firepower. I am going to continue to ride the ND train, and I’ve already put my bets in for both the +3.5 and ML on the Irish. I don’t think this team has the beef in the interior to slow Etienne down, and then you have the play action over the top with Hartman slinging it as well as anyone right now. They will need McCord to play out of his mind to win this game.
11. Utah (3-0)
    • I continue to assume Rising will be back at QB but I’m not sure they belong this high without him. They get a dangerous UCLA team this weekend and without Rising I’m not sure if this offense has the firepower to keep up. So far they’ve been able to ride their defense and running game, but UCLA is dangerous. If I’m a Ute fan I’m real nervous is Rising is ruled out once again. If he’s back though I’ll take the Utes with ease.
12. LSU (2-1)
    • LSU looks like the clear favorite in the West right now as they went to Starkville and pummeled Mississippi St. They left zero questions, as they dominated in every aspect the entire game. The defense looks good, and the Jayden Daniels-Malik Nabers connection is firing. They welcome an Arkansas team who is reeling after a home loss to BYU so things should continue to look very good for a sleeping giant in the SEC. With Georgia looking less dominant and Bama spiriling, you can envision a run from LSU that takes them to 12-1 and the CFP.
13. Oklahoma (3-0)
    • The Sooners are finally gaining my respect, as the defense looks much improved and offensively Dillon Gabriel is playing incredibly well. They haven’t had a very tough stretch but they are 3-0 only allowing 28 points total in those 3. They go to Cincy who just lost to Miami (Oh) so I don’t expect this train to slow down anytime soon. We need the red river shootout in a couple weeks to have both teams undefeated, just have to take care of business and the whole sports world will be tuned in.
14. Oregon St (3-0)
    • Again the Beavers won with ease and they continue to look dangerous as they enter Pac-12 play. DJ Uiagalelei has looked pretty good thus far, but he’ll have to be at his best this weekend as they head to Wazzu. Cam Ward and the Cougar offense have been dialed in and have already knocked off Wisconsin so this is a real litmus test for the Beavers to find out how legitimate they are as contenders.  
15. Ole Miss (3-0)
    • The Rebels continue to roll along and Jackson Dart is looking the part, but this weekend represents by far the biggest challenge of the season. If they truly are a top-15 team they can go to Tuscaloosa and give Alabama everything they can handle. Obviously Texas was already able to go there and win, but I’m not sure Ole Miss has quite enough defensive ability to make things difficult for Milroe. Alabama obviously hasn’t looked great on offense though, so if Dart and this O-line can control things on that side, it’s anybody’s ball game. That’s all you can ask for if you’re an Ole Miss fan.
16. Duke (3-0)
    • The Dukies are the quietest surprise team of the season, and while Colorado and Deion are getting all of the attention, I don’t think there’s been a more impressive start in the Country than what Duke has done thus far. Riley Leonard looks much improved, and the defense has been rock solid. They get 0-3 Uconn this weekend so they should stroll to 4-0 and are a legit contender in the ACC, which looks like a battle for who gets to play FSU in the title game.
17. Miami (FL) (3-0)
    • Speaking of the ACC, the Hurricanes have also been impressive to start, with Tyler Van Dyke playing much better this year and an improvement frankly at all levels. They get one last cupcake with Temple this weekend and then GA Tech next weekend, so we should see them cruise to 5-0. That would set them up with a massive road test with North Carolina.  
18. Alabama (2-1)
    • The Tide drop for me this week after that egg in South Florida, but I really think Milroe is the best they have, at least he can make some plays with his legs. There’s more wrong here than many thought, as the O-line has problems as they’re giving up sacks and can’t run the ball. The defense looks good, but thus far I’ve been vindicated, this isn’t the Alabama of old, and 18 frankly may be too high. But they get Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa, so if there’s ever a time for a bounce back this is it.
19. Colorado (3-0)
    • The brakes were pumped a little on the Colorado hype train when they had to come from behind in dramatic fashion to beat Colorado St in dramatic fashion. It’s a rivalry game so crazy things can happen, but with Travis Hunter getting hurt and them struggling so much in the trenches, I don’t see them winning at Oregon this week. Sanders is legit and they’ll put up points, but Bo Nix may drop 50+ on em.
20. UNC (3-0)
    • The Tar Heels won with ease over Minnesota on Saturday, in what was a disrespectful 7.5 point spread if you’d seen the two teams play. Drake Maye continues to play well other than the INT’s, but the defense has had its moments this year where it looks improved. They play @ Pitt this weekend who has looked awful to begin the year, so anything but 4-0 is a massive disappointment.
21. Syracuse (3-0)
    • The Orange only got 2 votes in the AP poll, but if you’ve watched this team play they look really dangerous with Garrett Shrader playing the way he is. Through their first 2 games they outscored opponents 113-7 and then went on the road and beat a decent Purdue team by 15 points. Shrader has been electric, with almost 1,000 combined passing and rushing yards thru 3 and 10 TD’s. People need to stop sleeping on the Orange, they are a legit contender in the ACC. They get Army this weekend so 4-0 is chalked up, then they get Clemson, UNC and FSU so it’s about to get real.
22. Iowa (3-0)
    • Well it’s been a fun start to the season for Iowa but now they have to go to Happy Valley and play an elite Penn St team. Nobody is really expecting this to be a close game, but if their defense can give Allar problems they could have a shot. I still think with McNamara they have more firepower on offense, not hard when last year’s team is the measuring stick, but a 15 point spread is an awful lot with this defense. If they put up a fight they’ll probably hang in this top-25.
23. Florida (2-1)
    • Very impressive weekend for the Gators, as they absolutely shit pumped Tennessee in the Swamp (as you profited from if you’re tailing). Now loosing the 1^st game with Mertz on the road in Utah looks much less rough. If they can run the ball like that with those 2 backs and the defense keeps flying around, they have a shot to pick some people off. They have a cupcake this weekend, but then they go to Kentucky in a game they have to win if they truly are a top-20 ish team.
24. Mizzou (3-0)
    • 2^nd biggest win of the weekend has to go to Mizzou, as they walked off K-State with a 61 yard FG to cap off an electric W. I’m not totally convinced they’re a top-25 team, but they played like it on Saturday so they get to be here this week. Brady Cook had a really good game against a pretty good K-State defense and the Luther Burden III was one of the better WR’s I’ve seen all season. Cook is hobbled though and they get a 3-0 Memphis team on Saturday who looks feisty. It could be short lived, but they deserve it nonetheless after that huge W.
25. Kansas (3-0)
    • I’m still riding with Kansas even though they kind of slept walked through Nevada on Saturday. I still think this is an electric offense with Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal running the show. The defense is awful, but in the Big 12 they don’t have many dominant defenses so they are going to just get in shootouts and hope they can get it done. One of those is probably going to be Saturday as they host BYU. The Cougars just went to Arkansas and won, so I’m a little surprised Kansas is an 8.5 point favorite, but just take the over 54.5 and enjoy a fun one.

1. Georgia (2-0)
   • We know the Bulldogs are really good, but nothing about their 1st two games really tells us how good they can be this year with Carson Beck. They welcome their 1st Power 5 opponent this weekend with South Carolina, albeit one that looked really bad in its lone test in their loss to UNC. I expect Georgia to dominate the game, but if the Gamecocks hang around we may be given some hope that the rest of the field has a shot to dethrone the back-to-back champs.
2. Michigan (2-0)
   • This is the same paragraph as above, except they have another cupcake opponent with Bowling Green coming in. The big question with Michigan really isn’t how good they are, we know who they are, it’s can they take the next step against the country’s elite teams not named Ohio St. We won’t have answers to that for a good while.
3. Florida St (2-0)
   • The Noles are on a short list of teams who have shined early in the season. They look like the class of the ACC and are a clear favorite to get into the Playoff. They should dominate against a bad BC team this weekend to set up a massive trip to Clemson Week 4. That was a game everyone had circled on the calendar pre-season, but even with Clemson’s early season blunder, they will be playing to keep their hopes alive so that game is still massive. Potential look ahead spot this weekend, but a true contender would go into BC and dominate, so that’ll be something to watch.
4. Notre Dame (3-0)
   • The Irish continue to affirm my belief that they will beat Ohio St and USC and get into the Playoff. They dominated a decent NC State team on the road, showcasing how difficult to stop offensively they are going to be with Sam Hartman running the offense. They dominate on the ground with Estime behind this elite O-line and are built to beat teams who are weak in the trenches…ie Ohio St and USC. I can’t wait for Week 4 when they host the Buckeyes.
5. Penn St (2-0)
   • Drew Allar looks the part so far, but this weekend represents the exact sort of game Penn St would struggle with in the past. If the Nittany Lions are who we think they are they should go into Illinois and win comfortably. They are 14.5 point favorites, good teams win, great teams cover. If they think they can beat Ohio State and Michigan, you have to handle your business against a team like Illinois on the road. Very intriguing game from a measuring stick standpoint.
6. Texas (2-0)
   • Texas is back. It’s been the question every year for the past decade or more, but going on the road and beating Alabama should put this question to rest. Now, many have the Longhorns higher, but Bama is not as impressive to me as others, and I think the teams I have above Texas right now would also be able to handle the Tide. It’s a great win, and positions them well to get into the playoff, especially since they get K-State and Oklahoma at home.
7. USC (2-0)
   • The defense has looked a little better these last couple of weeks and man does Caleb Williams look fantastic. It’s hard to gauge just how much of a problem the defense is going to be for them, but the Pac-12 is going to test them week after week, so we are going to find out in short order. It’s an off week for the Trojans, but things will start heating up soon.
8. Oregon (2-0)
   • By the skin of their teeth the Ducks were able to steal a dub from Lubbock this past weekend in a game that they didn’t play their best. Texas Tech is a good team and was hungry after a surprising loss, so to take their best shot and grab a road W was huge. The Ducks still have 6 ranked teams left on the schedule, so there are still land mines everywhere on the schedule. They get one last reprieve with Hawaii this weekend, but after that the madness will begin with Colorado coming to Eugene.
9. Washington (2-0)
   • Michael Penix Jr and this offense have been electric to start the season, and they are certainly right there with USC and Oregon at the top of this Conference. You could poll 100 people and I bet it would be close to a 3-way tie in terms of the top Pac-12 team so it’s going to be fascinating to watch it all play out. This week they have a road visit to East Lansing, who is down and without their HC, so I would expect another big victory heading into the Conference slate.
10. Ohio St (2-0)
    • I am still unimpressed with Kyle McCord and this offense, but they are 2-0 and they have the skill position guys to be elite. They get W. Kentucky this weekend to beat up on and try and build some rhythm on that side and they need to do so in a hurry because they’re heading to Notre Dame next week. So far I have no confidence these Buckeyes can go into South Bend and beat the Irish, and I doubt a game against W. Kentucky will allow me to feel any better.
11. Utah (2-0)
    • 2-0 against Power-5 teams without your starting QB is something to be very excited about, and while the Utes aren’t the flashiest team in the Pac-12, they should enter the Conference slate with as good a chance as anyone as long as Rising comes back healthy. They should have an easy W with Weber St coming to town this Saturday and then the fun begins. The Utes are a sleeping giant in the Pac-12 right now.
12. LSU (1-1)
    • Listen, the Tigers were written off with a game 1 loss to Florida St, but what it really amounts to? A loss to an elite team on a neutral site. I think LSU should still be the favorite out of the West in the SEC, but Alabama is right there as well. We are going to find out this weekend just how accurate that is as they head to Mississippi St, who isn’t great but represents a road test that can be used as a decent measuring stick game. An easy win gives you confidence they can be a factor come November.
13. Alabama (1-1)
    • Milroe was exposed as I assumed he would be, and Alabama lost at home to Texas which all but eliminated them from Playoff contention. Do you really think that offense can run the table in the SEC? Ole Miss, Texas A&M and LSU all look poised to give the Tide a rough time, and let’s not forget Tennessee. And even if they win all of those tough tests, they would need to get through Georgia in the SEC title game as well, so I just don’t see them in the Playoff this year, or even as a top-10 team.
14. Kansas St (2-0)
    • The Wildcats are as under the radar as it gets, but the defending Big 12 champs are the clear no. 2 in the Big 12 standing in the way of Texas. Will Howard is playing really well and I’ll say it til I’m blue in the face, this team is as tough and well coached as you’ll find in College Football. They get an interesting test @ Mizzou this weekend, and while I expect them to win the spread has fallen from 5.5 to 3.5 so there’s a lot of folks out there expecting a dog fight. I’m on the -3.5.
15. Oregon St (2-0)
    • Quietly the Beavers are dominating the way that a top-15 team should be, and they’ll get another chance to do so this weekend with San Diego St in town. As I’ve mentioned the Pac-12 is a gauntlet this year, but with DJ at QB and this dominant running game Oregon St is going to be no fun for the top dogs this year. I don’t think they can win the Pac-12 but they’ll play spoiler no doubt.
16. Ole Miss (2-0)
    • Pretty good win @ Tulane for Ole Miss this weekend but it was still kind of ugly without the starting QB for Tulane. Jackson Dart and the offense look pretty good, but you’d expect better honestly against a not so great Tulane D. I think the Rebels are still a step behind Bama and LSU in the West, but they get a chance at both and in a hurry as they go to Tuscaloosa Week 4 and host LSU week 5. They could easily be sitting 3-2 in a couple of weeks, but if they can pick off one of those they may have a shot at winning the West.
17. Colorado (2-0)
    • The story of the season obviously is Colorado and it’s been a ton of fun watching them pull this turnaround off. They have joined the 2^nd tier in the Pac-12 in my opinion, and in a couple of weeks USC has to travel to Colorado which will be one of the most watched game of the season. Sanders is legit at QB and they have legit weapons all around him. The questions are on Defense and the O-line is not good. I think those things hold them back but man, the win total was 3.5 and they look like an 8 or 9 win team.
18. Tennessee (2-0)
    • I think the Vols are going to be in real trouble heading to Gainesville this weekend, and I really don’t think Milton and this offense is as elite as last year. Florida looked not great week 1 @ Utah, but that’s a great defense, the Vols…not so much. I dropped Tennessee this week after they struggled with Austin Peay, and maybe it was a look ahead spot, but great teams don’t play with their food like that. Take the Gators +6.5 at the very least.
19. Oklahoma (2-0)
    • I’m not sure what to think of the Sooners thus far, the defense might be better? But is the offense not as great? I’m on a wait and see plan with this group, and I don’t think my questions are going to be answered when they go to Tulsa this Saturday. We’ll find out who they really are once Big 12 play gets underway.
20. Duke (2-0)
    • A huge win over Clemson obviously catapulted Duke into the rankings and they didn’t have a let down this past week as they put it to Lafayette. They get Northwestern this weekend, who they should beat with ease, and then UConn after that. They should be 4-0 when the mighty Notre Dame comes to Durham in a spot they can prove they really do belong on this list of great teams.
21. Miami (FL) (2-0)
    • Massive win for Cristobal and Miami as they got back to being a relevant program by giving it to Texas A&M. Tyler Van Dyke looked much improved and they look like a real contender in the ACC, obviously a step behind Florida St but they should be right there with Duke/UNC/Clemson fighting to get to an ACC championship game. They get an easy one with Bethune this weekend to come down off the high of this past weekend.
22. UNC (2-0)
    • The Tar Heels barely escaped App St after a huge win over South Carolina to avoid another crushing loss early in the season. We thought the defense was improved but we’re now looking at inconsistent as a descriptor. The good news is they get a pathetic Minnesota offense in Raleigh Saturday, so I would expect a much better defensive performance. Drake Maye needs to take care of the ball if they want to avoid another dog fight, the Golden Gopher have a stout D.
23. UCF (2-0)
    • Listen, did UCF look great against Boise St this weekend? Absolutely not, but they pulled out a win on a cross-country trip and ultimately I think it was a great building block. They get another easy one with Villanova coming in before the Big 12 season kicks off. Nobody is going to want to go to Orlando this year, and they look the part of a team that’s going to pick someone off nobody expects them to.
24. Iowa (2-0)
    • Iowa is Iowa, they just win games. It’s ugly as can be, but they’re 2-0 and well on their way to 3-0. They play great D, and with McNamara can at least threaten a little more this year on Offense. The Big Ten West is wide open with Wisconsin and Illinois both dropping games to unranked Power-5 teams early, so the Hawkeyes are quietly well positioned to play in a Conference championship game.
25. Kansas (2-0)
    • Kansas picked up a really nice win over Illinois this past weekend in convincing fashion. With Daniels healthy at QB they are electric on that side, and there’s some early signs the defense has taken a step in the right direction. If they can just keep Daniels healthy they have legit spoiler potential in the Big 12. They get Oklahoma and K-State at home, with Texas on the road. 9 or 10 wins is well within reach.

Top-25 Preseason Rankings

1. Georgia
   • No serious person on Earth would have Georgia in any other spot after repeating as National Champs. There are question marks however, with QB 1 just being named in Carson Beck being the biggest mystery. Nobody really knows how he will play, but having the best Defense in the Country helps, and an elite O-line also makes things easy. Brock Bowers is back to make plays and the RB room is pretty good. It’s hard to poke holes, but if the Bulldogs fail to make it a three-peat, it will likely be because Carson Beck struggles at times this year. The schedule is soft, with the toughest game being @ Tennessee in November so we may be waiting a while to find out who the Dawgs really are this year.
2. Michigan
   • The Wolverines choked in the CFP a year ago, shooting themselves in the foot at every turn in their loss to TCU. They welcome back probably the best RB duo in the Country in Corum and Edwards, plus a more experienced JJ McCarthy has brought stability to the QB spot. The defense is once again going to be really good and ultimately it’s going to come down to McCarthy and how many plays he can make against the likes of Penn St and Ohio St. The truth is they should steam roll through their opponents until November. They do have to go to a down Mich St in October, but the stretch of @ Penn St, @ Maryland and then Ohio St at home is going to be the stretch that gets them into the Playoff or puts them out. I think this Michigan team is best suited to take down Georgia, and likely the most talented of the Harbaugh teams we’ve seen. We know who they are, they just have to actually get it done on the field.  
3. Ohio St
   • The most gifted group of skill position players in the Country resides in Columbus, headlined by WR duo Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka. Of course, they also tout a monster of a RB duo in TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams to help whoever is the new QB 1. McCord has shown as much as he can to give confidence he can get the ball to these weapons, but Devin Brown seems to be the more exciting prospect. A QB battle stretching into the season is not the best look, but deciding between to A’s is not always the worst spot to be in. The real question is in the trenches, where they were beat up by Georgia and Michigan a year ago. Can they stop the run? That’s the ultimate question if they want to knock those programs down, extending even to an improved Penn St who have elite RB’s as well. They have to be better defensively and the QB has to be competent to return to the top of the Big 10 and compete for a Natty.   
4. Florida St
   • The Noles aren’t going to be surprising anyone this year after a seemingly out of nowhere 10-2 season has foisted hefty expectations on Norvell and company. Jordan Travis headlines a scary offense that returns 8 starters from a top-10 group a year ago, including RB Trey Benson and WR’s Johnny Wilson and Mycah Pittman. The defense, lead by freak athlete Jared Verse is also going to be very good, with a ton of experience back and some big time transfers like All-ACC CB Fentrell Cypress II from Virginia. We are going to learn just how serious of a playoff contender this team is very early on, as they play LSU week 1 and Clemson Week 4. They could be down and out by the end of September if those both go sour, but a 4-0 start and all of Tallahassee will be buying their CFP tickets. I’m expecting them to be in the mix by season’s end, and we may see an ACC championship game that is effectively a CFP play-in game.
5. Clemson
   • Dabo and the Tigers would consider their season a failure in 2022, but they quietly went 11-2 (9-0) and won the ACC. Their 2 losses to Notre Dame and S. Carolina were ugly, but beyond their struggles at QB the team was very good. This year should have more stability at that position with highly touted Cade Klubnik taking over and new OC Garrett Riley brought in to elevate him, and they have some toys to play with at the skill positions including Will Shipley at RB. The defense returns much of last year’s group as well, including the entire secondary and probably the best LB duo in the country in Barret Carter and Jeremiah Trotter. The defense was up and down in year 1 without Venables, but I would expect that to improve. There is no doubt this year’s Clemson should be better than last year’s version and there’s a clear 1-2 in the ACC, and both should be in play for the CFP.
6. LSU
   • Jayden Daniels is back to lead a loaded LSU roster that surprised everyone and won the SEC West a year ago. However, the smushing at the hands of Georgia proved they weren’t quite to that next tier yet. Brian Kelly hit the portal hard in an attempt to remake its secondary, but the front 7 is very stout, featuring Harold Perkins Jr who is a SEC DPOY front runner. Some expect some regression, some expect them to challenge Georgia, it really is an intriguing roster. The good news is we’ll know by the end of September who they are, as they get Florida St and then road trips to Miss St and Ole Miss. Survive that slate and they’re in the driver’s seat with really only Bama left as a challenge.
7. USC
   • Caleb Williams returns for an encore to his Heisman campaign so we know what the Trojans will be on offense. The real questions come on the other side of the ball, as their 3 losses they gave up 43, 46 and 47 respectively. Similar to Ohio St having a Michigan problem, the Trojans have a Utah problem, as 2 of their losses were to the Utes who bullied them in the trenches in both games. Lincoln Riley has historically not had great defenses and so far it has continued into his time in LA. They hit the transfer portal heavy, especially on D, highlighted by former Georgia DL Bear Alexander and Tx A&M DE Anthony Lucas. If they can at least be a top-75 defense USC can make the CFP, but more of the same on that side of the ball and they could lose 3-4 games. They play Oregon and ND on the road, plus hosting Utah and Washington seeing 4 of the top-10 QB’s in the Country, no easy task.
8. Penn St
   • This is undoubtedly James Franklin’s most talented team top to bottom. If there is a year they can dethrone the Michigan/Ohio St dominance, this is it, as they have elite RB’s, a great O-line and a defense that once again should be very good. The one question mark is young QB Drew Allar. He was a 5-star recruit that everyone assumes is going to be really good, but if he can’t play at a high level they won’t make the leap. If he can though, this really could be the year the Nittany Lions crack into the CFP. They have NFL dudes at all 3 levels on D, and Singleton and Allen in the backfield are electric. It’s truly all on the play of Allar, so some caution is needed on this hype train but it should be a fun year in Happy Valley.  
9. Oregon
   • Bo Nix is back to lead an electric offense that was in the CFP mix a year ago until an ankle injury forced Nix out late in the year. Bucky Irving and Troy Franklin are back as elite weapons so I would expect this offense to not skip a beat. What Lanning has been focused on is improving defensively, and he went to the transfer portal to help make that happen, bringing in as many as 6 guys who could be starters, including LB Jestin Jacobs from Iowa and DE Jordan Burch from S. Carolina. Winning the Pac-12 will be all about defense, as these offenses are elite and can all score, can they just get enough stops to win those shootouts against the likes of Caleb Williams or Michael Penix Jr or even Cam Rising?
10. Alabama
    • While this may be low compared to others, I think this is a fair spot to put this year’s Bama team. This is on paper a much weaker offense than a year ago. No Bryce Young for a team that was heavily QB dependent and on top of that no clear guy to fill in, as they brought in transfer Tyler Buchner after the Spring game to battle Milroe and Simpson for the starting role. They’ll have to figure that out and do it quickly as they welcome Texas to Tuscaloosa Week 2, and with 3 guys still in the mix who knows how that will go. Bama is Bama, they will play solid D, but the O-line is also a problem, as they were mediocre last year and will be young up front this year. With this many questions I’m not sure why they’re ahead of some of the 9 teams I have above them in many other places. Bama will not be in the CFP, that’s my prediction.
11. Notre Dame
    • Weird losses to Marshall and Stanford were stains on what was otherwise an okay year 1 for Freeman at ND. They beat Clemson and played Ohio St tough, the offense was just a constant struggle the first 6 weeks of the season. After that they went 6-1, averaging nearly 39 ppg with wins over Clemson, Syracuse, and S. Carolina. Now they welcome Sam Hartman as their QB 1, probably the most prolific QB to transfer this year, he brings them the arm talent they haven’t seen in many many years in South Bend. There are question marks at the skill positions, but this big of an improvement at QB can make good guys look great. The D-line also has some questions, but there’s no reason to think the massive upgrade at QB and the positive momentum they built last year won’t make them much more dangerous this season. They have Ohio St and USC at home, knock one of them off and they’ll have a shot at the CFP.
12. Washington
    • The Huskies were a surprise team a year ago with the emergence of Michael Penix Jr and an elite passing attack. Penix is back, as are many of his weapons from a year ago, which puts them squarely in the conversation to win the Pac-12. As we’ve said with all of these Pac-12 teams, it all comes down to getting stops in this league, and Washington struggled at times doing that last year. In their losses they gave up 40 and 45, and won 3 games in which they gave up 30+ points. They also didn’t have to play Caleb Williams, Cam Rising or a healthy Bo Nix, so things could go differently this year as all 3 are on the docket. The offense is elite, but with a tougher schedule this year I don’t see them taking that next step into the CFP conversation or even finishing top-2 in the Pac-12.
13. Utah
    • Cam Rising is back and allegedly healthy after tearing his ACL January 2^nd, and they’ll need him right away as they play Florida and Baylor to kick off the season. It’s a brutal schedule, but the Utes return 7 on D and bring back weapons like DeVaughn Vele and Brant Kuithe and will undoubtedly run well behind a good O-line. The questions here are Rising’s health and if they can elevate beyond where they were a season ago. We know who they are, a B+ roster that plays above its talent level due to its physicality and discipline. The hope if you’re a Ute fan is that Rising can play even better and they can finally win a couple games on the road. They go to USC, Washington, Oregon St and Baylor after losing 3 road games last year. Going to the CFP seems out of reach with the schedule but go 3-1 in those road games and they have a chance.
14. Kansas St
    • The reigning Big 12 champs have to reload a bit but they do welcome back their QB and a fully intact O-line that should dominate the line of scrimmage. Deuce Vaughn is gone, and his loss will be the biggest impact on their offense, but the hope is DJ Giddens and FL St transfer Treshaun Ward can by committee put up big numbers behind this stout O-Line. The big question will be how good the defense can be this year after losing 7 starters. The transfer portal is a wonderful thing but I’m not sure this will look like the same Wildcats. Howard may need to do more but we know they’ll be tough and disciplined, and in a league with more questions than answers they have a legitimate shot to repeat.
15. Oregon St
    • One of the quieter 10-win seasons from last year the Beavers were very solid, they just couldn’t muster enough offense to beat the elite teams in the Conference, losing to USC, Utah and Washington. They did knock off Oregon to show they can do it, and they went out and upgraded at QB by bringing in DJ Uiagalelei who gets a chance to redefine his career behind a stout O-line and with a strong running game thanks to a talented backfield led by Damien Martinez. The offense will need to improve, because the league’s best D lost 6 starters, and while they should still be good and exact repeat of last season will be tough with that much turnover. With no USC on the schedule and Washington/Utah/UCLA at home, the only probable loss is @ Oregon. 11-1 is the ceiling folks, get used to the Beavers in the conversation.
16. Wisconsin
    • Fickell brings in the hope of a new era in Madison, as he’s brought an influx of talent to the offensive side of the ball, led by QB Tanner Mordecai. He was a stud at SMU, throwing for over 7k yards and instantly becomes the best QB Wisconsin has had in a long time. They also still have one of the best RB’s in the league in Braelon Allen alongside former Clemson RB Chez Mellusi. The WR’s aren’t elite but good, and the O-line of course will be good. If everything comes together offensively for the Badgers they should win the West rather easy. They likely don’t have enough talent to contend with the top teams from the East, but the Badgers could look better than they have in a long time. However, it also could go poorly if Mordecai doesn’t click in this offense, and with so much change and turnover, that isn’t out of the question.  
17. Texas
    • The talent in Austin jumps off the page, with one of the best WR rooms in the Country, the entire O-line back and of course Ewers back again at QB. You could argue the talent on the roster is top-15, even top-10 maybe, but we’ve seen that in the past and it has yet to come to fruition under Sark. Losing Bijan is a huge loss of course, but they do have elite playmakers at WR in Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington and Adonai Mitchell. If Ewers can be consistent and get the ball to these wideouts they’ll have an elite offense. With some transfer help in the secondary they also beefed up their D, so it’s easy to understand the hype with Texas again. It just remains to be seen if Sark can get it done with all this talent.
18. Tennessee
    • Everyone seems to believe Joe Milton is going to step in and keep the offensive train rolling the way Hooker had it a year ago…I’m not sold. The Vols also lost 6 starters on D and their best WR in Jaylin Hyatt so there’s much to be replaced from a team that needed to outscore their opponents a year ago. They ranked 127^th against the pass, but they won’t face too many elite passers this year. The good news is they return an elite RB room and Heupel should lean on them to make plays to help take pressure off of Milton. If Milton can come in and be adept, then we’re talking about a team that gets to host Georgia late in the year and has a shot to really rock the boat.
19. TCU
    • The Horned Frogs had a magical season in 2022, so some regression should be expected. Losing Duggan, Johnston and Miller are giant losses, but the biggest loss felt may be OC Garrett Riley who moved on to Clemson. What he did with Duggan was very impressive, but now it’s on Sonny Dykes and Chandler Morris to keep the train rolling. They used the portal to reload at the skill positions, and return 8 starters on D, so expectations aren’t exactly gone. The schedule is soft early which helps, and they easily could be 7-0 when they head to K-State in late October. A return to the Big 12 title game would be a massive success.  
20. Ole Miss
    • Lane Kiffin and the Rebels enter another season with a loaded offense and questions defensively. 8 starters return on offense, with Quinshon Judkins and a great O-line as the headlining group, they’ll be running all over teams this year. The question has now become the QB, as they brought in Spencer Sanders to challenge Dart for the starting gig. As of Week 0 we still don’t know who it’ll be, and we may not for a few weeks, but either way it’ll be good but not great QB play from either of those guys. Defensively is the issue, and while Kiffin tried to revamp via the portal, it just doesn’t look like they have the dudes. Even with the addition of DC Pete Golding from Bama, it may take time to elevate Ole Miss to true contenders in the West.
21. UCF
    • John Rhys Plumlee is back to lead one of the better offensive groups in the Country that was top-10 in rushing last year. Malzahn is a proven Coach that has brought in some reinforcements via the transfer portal to help solidify the O-line and secondary. He also brought in a new OC in Darrin Henshaw who was a QB at UCF to help bring Plumlee along in the passing game. An improvement there and a continuation of the run game would make UCF one of the more dangerous offensive teams in the Country heading into a Big 12 with not much defense. I trust their D and skill position players a little more than teams like OU and UNC, so that’s why I have them ahead. Another 9-win season seems in the cards, and they should be 3-0 heading into a trip to K-State where they can really make a splash.
22. Oklahoma
    • Dillon Gabriel is back but beyond that it’s a lot of question marks for the Sooners heading into 2023. A young RB group and unproven WR’s will put a ton of pressure on Gabriel to be elite for this offense to be consistent. Defensively they are coming off a complete disaster of a 2022, which was a shocker with Venables at the helm. The talent gap between the Sooners and Clemson where he came from was exposed, and the Sooners were one of the worst defenses in the Country. A ton of turnover puts the D in the crosshairs again, and if it’s another disaster Venables could be feeling the heat already in year 2.
23. North Carolina
    • Drake Maye is going to be tasked with being a hero this year, as the Tar Heels have had a lot of turnover. The good news for Mack Brown and co is Maye is probably the 2^nd best QB in the country behind Caleb Williams, and is fully capable of keeping UNC relevant. They need some amount of improvement on defense to have a shot at a repeat of last year’s 9-win group, but with Maye at the helm nothing is out of the question. They brought in some transfer WR’s to replace those that exited the program but week 1 will tell us a whole lot about who these Tar Heels are when they host S. Carolina.
24. Texas Tech
    • Tyler Shough is back and with him healthy they are an elite offensive team. An 8-win team that brings back 14 starters and their QB 1 back healthy is a recipe for a step forward, and the schedule gives them a home game against Oregon Week 2 to prove they can make a jump. They also get K-State and TCU at home and really only get Texas on the road in terms of contenders in the Conference as they avoid Oklahoma. Tahj Brooks and Jerand Bradley are back at the skill positions and much of a very talented D-line is back as well. They enter as a dark horse candidate in a mysterious Big 12 in 2023.
25. Illinois
    • Bret Bielema has injected this program with his style and culture he famously had success with at Wisconsin. You could argue after all the turnover they are far more Wisconsin than the Badgers themselves these days, and now he has a big upgrade at QB. Devito protected the ball but wasn’t a threat to push the ball down the field, so in comes Luke Altmyer from Ole Miss to hopefully elevate this offense a bit, and I think he will. The problem a year ago was scoring, as they were 95^th in scoring offense compared to 1^st in scoring defense. The Illini aren’t getting discussed much, but in my mind they’re right there with Iowa as the biggest threats to Wisconsin in the West. They’re physical, have good RB’s and return 7 players on D including 6 of their front 7 back. Great Coach, great defense and great in the trenches is a recipe for a quiet 9-win season.

It’s finally Selection Sunday and the bubble picture is as clear as it’s going to get, now we wait. In my mind we have 4 spots truly up for grabs, and I have Oklahoma St, NC State and Arizona St as 3 of those 4. The final spot seems like an almost impossible decision, with teams like Rutgers/Nevada/Pitt/Vandy as the main 4 fighting over it. Either way those are the top 7 teams I see as fighting for those last 4 spots in Dayton, with a number of variations to be found depending on the prognosticator you choose to follow. Oklahoma St/Nevada/Vandy seem to be the more consensus picks to be the 3 to miss out of that group. In my opinion, which you can find below in further detail, a team like Oklahoma St deserves a spot more than Rutgers/Pitt due to their insane schedule and the 4 wins against top-30 teams. Pitt has 1. Rutgers has 4 losses in Q3, the Pokes have 1. There’s ample reason to think Oklahoma St should be in, and if they don’t hear their name called they are the 1 team I would join in outcry. Either way, the storylines are plentiful as we sit just a few hours from the Selection Show. No more bubble teams or bid stealers remain, so this is it. Hope you’ve enjoyed, and drop a comment on your thoughts on those last 4 in.   

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–ACC–

Locks:

       

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Pitt: 22-11 (14-6) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-5) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (10-1) SOS: (92) TW’s (4)

The Panthers got absolutely boat raced against Duke on Thursday and frankly didn’t look much like a tournament team given Duke is sitting somewhere in the 6-7 seed range. That’s how they’d perform as a 10 or 11? Not a great look. Beyond that the resumé is pretty thin, with a 7-9 record in Q1/2 and their best win being 23rd ranked Virginia I think best case for Pitt as it stands right now is to end up in Dayton. When you look at teams behind or right with them, you’re looking at UNC, Rutgers, Utah St, Mississippi St, Clemson, Penn St, Arizona St and Oregon who are all still alive with chances to add to their resumé. Ultimately, I hope the committee looks at that putrid SOS metric and actually sticks to what they say matters, and that’s the SOS and quality wins, which Pitt lacks. Pitt should be in the NIT most likely, but there’s always a chance they benefit from the ACC label. (Mar. 9)

N.C. State: 23-10 (12-8) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (7-4) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (75) TW’s (2)

The Wolfpack went into their matchup with Clemson on Thursday feeling pretty comfortable and it showed as they got absolutely smoked by the Tigers and now present the committee with a 1-6 Q1 record and overall 8-10 against Q1/2. What they have over teams like Pitt and Clemson is 0 losses outside of Q1/2, so that fact will probably be what keeps them in the dance despite that ugly performance against a fellow bubble team. They could end up in Dayton, especially with Penn St and Utah St adding wins and looking for more. Many have them ahead of teams like Mississippi St, who happens to have 4 Q1 wins and has played a much more difficult schedule. It’s close, but it’s hard to put a team has only 1 top-25 win and 4 losses to sub-50 ranked teams. I have them in Dayton, but they may avoid it and be on the 11 or 10 seed line thanks to the clean sheet in Q3/4. Either way, I don’t think they’ll be missing out on the field entirely. (Mar. 9)

Clemson: 23-10 (14-6) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (7-2) Q4: (9-2) SOS: (107) TW’s (3)

Clemson’s final pitch to the committee was to get dressed down by Virginia and now their fate rests in the hands of the committee. In my opinion, they haven’t done enough, with those 4 losses in Q3/4 so right now they’re still on the outside looking in for me. The loss to Virginia dropped them to 7-6 in Q1, which isn’t horrible on this year’s bubble, but those 4 bad losses are going to haunt them. It’s a weird resumé to try and place, but at the end of the day they have 1 top-30 win, and have 4 losses to teams sub-150 (3 of which were sub-230). No matter how much Jay Bilas claims his magic eye tells him Clemson is a tourney team, they just haven’t consistently proven it. On any given night many teams have looked like tournament teams, the selections are about consistency and the totality of a season. Thankfully, Mr. Bilas will not be part of the Selection process, and I’m fairly confident those that are will not be including Clemson in the field of 68. (Mar. 10)

North Carolina: 20-13 (11-9) — Q1: (1-9) Q2: (6-4) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (52) TW’s (3)

Well the Tar Heels are pretty much out of it at this point after the loss to Virginia. They are 7-13 in Q1/2 and while they don’t have any bad losses per se they just haven’t amassed enough wins to get in. Now, the committee of course could shock us all and put them in but I wouldn’t bet on it. Last year there was 1 team in the field with only 1 Q1 win, Wyoming in Dayton. While this year’s bubble is pretty weak, they are just behind so many teams in my mind right now I just don’t see it happening. From the Natty to the NIT for the pre-season #1 team. Haven’t seen anything like it. (Mar. 9)

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–Big Ten–

Locks:

        

Teetering:

Rutgers: 19-14 (10-10) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-4) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (44) TW’s (5)

That’s a wrap on Rutgers as they fell to Purdue in what was an all-out war. This is the most intriguing resumé heading into Selection Sunday for me, as they have a gigantic road W over Purdue who is a top-5 team, and overall 5 Q1 wins and are 10-10 in Q1/2. However, that 2-4 Q3 record is the most disgusting piece of a resumé on this entire bubble watch. Plus, you have the 3-7 record since Mawot Mag went down, a time period where they picked up several of those ugly losses. I don’t think the new Rutgers without Mag is deserving of a tourney bid, and frankly the resumé as a whole with those ugly losses isn’t that great either. I think you could make an argument for them over one team I have in and that’s Nevada. They have better wins than Nevada, but still the Wolfpack are 11-2 in Q3 compared to 2-4. That’s ugly. Throw in the fact Nevada is 8-8 in Q1/2 and the glaring difference is Rutgers’ worse Q3 record. I was one of few people to have them out heading into today, so I’m willing to admit I could be wrong, I just don’t see how they’re ahead of teams like Oklahoma St or Arizona St. I have Nevada as the last team in, Rutgers the first team out. Either way, it’s fair to say it’s going to be a nervy Selection Sunday for the Scarlet Knights. (Mar. 10)

Wisconsin: 17-14 (9-11) — Q1: (6-7) Q2: (5-6) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (13) TW’s (5)

The Badgers had a chance to really put themselves in good position to be dancing had they just beaten Ohio St, but of course they did not and now they likely are NIT bound. Now, the committee could surprise people in theory and put them in somehow but I just don’t see it with all of these losses. It’s not an easy team to leave out because they’ve proven they can beat really good teams, with 6 Q1 wins, which is more than all of those ACC teams by a mile. It’s just the below .500 record in Q2/3 games that makes you feel they haven’t done enough. If that Q3 says 2-0 and not 1-1, they look so much better. But you can’t hang your hat on SOS and quality wins if you’re also dropping games to Minnesota. Not to mention the 6 Q2 losses which is nearly as ugly. They do have a 45th ranked SOR though which is better than Pitt, UNC and Clemson so who knows. Let’s say I’d be surprised but not totally shocked if they get in. (Mar. 8)

Michigan: 17-14 (11-9) — Q1: (3-12) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-1) SOS: (27) TW’s (7)

Michigan finished the season with 3 straight losses, capping it off with a double digit loss to Rutgers in their Big Ten tourney opener. They had a chance to play themselves in but I think it’s all but over for Michigan. I don’t really see a scenario in which they make the dance but I’m not going to claim to be all-knowing so we’ll keep the Wolverines here until it’s official. I just don’t view 3-12 in Q1 as good enough and while they have a much better record against bad teams than a Clemson or Rutgers for example, they just couldn’t pick up enough wins over quality teams. 8-14 in Q1/2, even in a weak bubble year, isn’t going to get it done. Allow me to be the first to welcome Michigan to the NIT.  (Mar. 9)

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–Big 12–

Locks:

         

Teetering:

Oklahoma St: 18-15 (8-10) — Q1: (6-12) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (6) TW’s (4)

It’s just my opinion but even with a 15th loss coming at the hands of Texas I think Oklahoma St should be in the field. Yes the record at 18-15 is ugly, but they have 6 Q1 wins and are 18-8 against teams not named Kansas/Texas/Baylor. Those are top-14 teams, and there are several teams on this bubble who haven’t even played a top-14 team all season (hello ACC). The committee has stated that SOS and beating quality teams are the most important categories (not the only ones of course) but the Pokes have 4 wins over top-30 teams. Teams like Clemson/N.C. State/Pitt have just 1 a piece, so if they are sticking to what they’ve said publicly then Oklahoma St should be in the field. It might be Dayton, but either way I expect to hear Oklahoma St on Selection Sunday. (Mar. 9)

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–Big East–

Locks:

 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: N/A

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–Pac-12–

Locks:

   

Teetering:

Arizona St: 22-12 (11-9) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (4-5) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (8-1) SOS (54) TW’s (3)

With 5 Q1 wins and a relatively clean Q3/4 record I think Arizona St should be in Dayton. They are fighting for spots with the ACC teams, Rutgers and Nevada, but ultimately I think they have the highest quality resumé of all of them. 9-11 in Q1/2 isn’t horrible, in fact it’s better than some teams I have in the field ahead of the Sun Devils, it’s just their SOS and metrics that are holding them back. Ultimately I don’t think last night’s loss to Arizona is something that should knock them off. They should ride those 2 top-20 wins away from home right on in to the field of 68. No ACC team has those wins on their resumé, neither does Nevada, and Rutgers has the wins but they also have those 4 Q3 losses out there. Arizona St shouldn’t feel comfortable but they should feel like they gave themselves a great shot. (Mar. 10)

Oregon:  19-14 (12-8) — Q1: (2-9) Q2: (7-4) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (27) TW’s (3)

The loss last night to UCLA was the final nail in the coffin for Oregon most likely, as 2-9 in Q1 just isn’t going to get it done. They had ample opportunities if just one or 2 of those 9 losses were W’s we would be singing a different tune with the Ducks. Ultimately, they’re an average team that repeatedly couldn’t beat good teams, with the lone win over Arizona at home looking like an outlier now. Sure, the committee could shock us, but at this point there’s too many teams ahead of Oregon in my mind for me to really even think one more second about them after I finish writing this. I’m sure Dana Altman will be back, but for now, enjoy the NIT.(Mar. 10) 

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–SEC–

Locks:

         

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Mississippi St: 21-12 (8-10) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (43) TW’s (4)

State didn’t do themselves any favors by getting waxed by Alabama on Friday and now will have to sweat out Selection Sunday. Ultimately I think they will end up an 11 seed, potentially avoiding Dayton but very well could be in Dayton as well. I don’t see them missing out on the dance though, as those 4 Q1 wins and relatively clean record against bad teams should keep them in. Some of my fellow prognosticators have them behind teams like N.C. State and Pitt, but to me the team who has beaten great teams, and more of them, should be seeded higher. The Bulldogs have wins over Marquette, Arkansas, Texas A&M and TCU, all tourney teams and all top-30 wins. N.C. State and Pitt have 1 such win a piece. That’s without mentioning others like Nevada and Rutgers who have a significantly worse record against bad teams to go with fewer big wins. Long story short, Mississippi State is dancing, just is a matter of when and where. (Mar. 10)

Auburn: 20-12 (10-8) — Q1: (3-10) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (17) TW’s (4)

Auburn played well but a 10th loss in Q1 keeps them on the bubble at least, as they have no more chances to add to a not so great 3-10 Q1 record. I don’t think they will miss out on the field, but they really only have 2 top-25 wins (Tennessee/Arkansas) so there truly isn’t a ton of meat on the bone. The lucky thing for them is they are up against a crop of bubble teams who are in much worse situations, so those 3 Q1 wins actually should be enough, especially with a 17th SOS and only 1 loss in Q3/4. Ultimately, this year 9-11 in Q1/2 is going to be good enough to be in the dance, they’ll just be hoping to avoid Dayton. (Mar. 9)

Vanderbilt: 20-14 (11-7) — Q1: (5-10) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (5-1) SOS (24) TW’s (6)

Vandy lost pretty easily on Saturday to Texas A&M, but they appear to be a better team than fellow bubble teams like NC State, Nevada or Rutgers. You don’t luck into 5 top-30 wins. What they will try and hang their hat on are those quality wins, but it is also true that they have lost 3 games in Q3/4, so while they may look like a tourney team right now in March, those games when they haven’t are likely going to be what keeps them out of the field. Similar to Vandy, we saw the committee a season ago leave Texas A&M out who went on a late run, including all the way to the SEC championship game, so I would expect a similar result with Vandy this season, just too little too late for the Commodores. (Mar. 11)

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–Mountain West–

Locks:

 

Teetering:

Nevada: 21-10 (12-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (10-2) Q4: (3-0) SOS (70) TW’s (2)

Nevada has imploded down the stretch as they lost back-to-back Q3 games to end the regular season and followed it up with a first round Q2 loss in the MW tourney. They have gone from safely in to squarely in the Dayton group or First 4 out group, depending on where you look. They have 4 Q1 wins, and are 8-8 in Q1/2, so it’s pretty on par with these ACC teams that are right there on the bubble with them. I wouldn’t be shocked for the ACC brand to be the factor that leaves Nevada out, but I wouldn’t be outraged by it just because of how they ended the season in such a disastrous way. They had plenty of chances to play their way in, and they failed to do it. I could not be more on the fence with Nevada, and frankly I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re in Dayton or the NIT. (Mar. 9)

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–American–

Locks:

   

–WCC–

Locks:

 

 

We’re now down to the final full week of the regular season in college basketball and things are starting to take shape as more and more teams play their way out of the bubble conversation. Teams like New Mexico, Virginia Tech and Seton Hall have moved to the ‘needing a miracle’ category as losses pile up and others pick up big wins. I have 31 locks on the board across 9 Conferences, so the best case scenario for these bubble teams is 22 at-larges taken with 14 spots remaining. I have 24 teams on the true bubble watch list. 55 total teams, 36 at-large spots plus 9 auto bids up for grabs will leave 10 of the remaining 24 teams not hearing their name called. That is, if everything goes according to plan. And in March, in college basketball, we know things never go according to plan. So, 24 teams battling it out for 14 spots, that’s March baby. Now we take a look at how each one of them can get their way into the dance with 14 days left to play. It’s going to be a fun ride. Enjoy. (*All data as of 2/27*)

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–ACC–

Locks:

       

On the Right Track:

Pitt: 21-8 (14-4) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (10-1) SOS: (94) TW’s (4)

I am still shocked to be writing about a 14-4 team in the ACC as a bubble team but in this weird year we are still here with the Pitt Panthers. While Pitt went 2-0 this past week, I’m still looking at the overall resume and envisioning 2 losses to close out the season followed by a quick exit in the ACC tourney that would leave Pitt 21-11, below .500 in Q1/2 games and and very weak SOS. They are hanging their hat on a win @ Northwestern and then at home against Virginia which is looking less and less impressive. The weakness of the ACC cannot be understated as far as the NET is concerned. I get it, last year was the same story and the ACC teams dominated the tourney. It’s a fair point that ultimately does nothing to help Pitt if they go 0-3 down the stretch. Just win @ Notre Dame this Wednesday and this one can be locked up, as a loss @ Miami is not going to hurt them too much. It’s just time to take care of business, not to feel comfortable. 

N.C. State: 22-8 (12-7) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (86) TW’s (2)

These ACC teams are just slowly sliding down the seed list as teams in other Conferences continue to pick up huge wins and they just try and survive. The Wolfpack were able to defend home court early in the week over Wake but then Clemson came into Raleigh and absolutely beat the living daylight out of em to keep them in dangerous territory. A weak SOS and being 7-8 in Q1-2 games is not exactly where you want to be sitting with March around the corner. With only 1 game remaining @ Duke, N.C. State is starting to feel the pressure behind them as they slip closer to those games in Dayton. I still don’t think they’re in trouble but 0-2 the rest of the way would leave them with a pretty weak resumé all things considered. A win in the ACC tourney may be what it takes to lock this one up. Stay tuned. 

Teetering:

Clemson: 21-8 (13-5) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (8-2) SOS: (114) TW’s (3)

Last week we laid it all out for Clemson, who put their at-large hopes on life support with a loss to Louisville. However, they bounced back this week and picked up a massing Q1 win at N.C. State. We said to even have a fighting chance they needed to win at least 1 of their road games to finish and they got it done in the 1st opportunity. Now, they head into this week right on the outside looking in with another massive opportunity upcoming @ Virginia on Tuesday. Win that and they likely find themselves back on the right side of the bubble, lose and it gets real hairy. They finish the season at home with ND, nothing much to gain there. Anything short of 2-0 is going to put a lot of pressure on this group to win some games in the ACC tourney, but the path is still there without winning the whole thing to squeak in there. Just have to win games. 

North Carolina: 18-11 (10-8) — Q1: (1-8) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (29) TW’s (2)

The Tar Heels are clinging on to a small sliver of hope as they try and rack up wins down the stretch. Beating Virginia this week was imperative, and gave them their first Q1 victory of the season. Now they end the season with 2 more must win games, at Florida St and then at home against Duke to end the season. Another Q1 win over Duke would put them firmly in the conversations, and with how hot they got last season that positive momentum could lead right into the ACC tourney to help push them over the edge. It’s as do-or-die as it can get, but at least they have the opportunity to improve the resumé. Best case scenario heading into the ACC tourney is being in the Last 4 in group, which certainly isn’t comfortable, but it’s a path nonetheless. 

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–Big Ten–

Locks:

  

On the Right Track:

Illinois: 19-10 (10-8) — Q1: (3-9) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (28) TW’s (6)

Everyone seems to feel Illinois is a lock to make the dance, and while they’re probably right something about that nasty 3-9 Q1 record makes me hesitate. They picked up a Q2 win this past week over Northwestern and then laid an egg @ struggling Ohio St giving the Buckeyes their first win since Jan 21. Illinois has been good enough this season to beat Texas and UCLA, but that feels like an eternity ago. While a 19-13 finish would make this resumé extremely flimsy, it might be those 2 wins in the non-conference that keeps them on the right side, but it still could be close. They need to take care of Michigan at home this week to lock things up in my mind, and the Wolverines are playing good basketball winning 6 of 8 so it’s no slam dunk. I’m still watching the Illini. 

Rutgers: 18-11 (10-8) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (39) TW’s (5)

Rutgers is truly just limping to the finish line to close out the season as they’ve gone 2-4 over their last 6 games. Sunday became an extremely important game for their tournament chances after they lost early in the week to Michigan at home. The Scarlet Knights got up off the mat though and got a huge win @ Penn St to ease the pressure and now with 6 Q1 wins and an easy trip to Minnesota up next Rutgers should be feeling pretty good about their chances. Yet and still, finishing out the season with a loss to Minnesota and then at home to Northwestern would put them in dangerous territory yet again. They can’t feel comfortable until they walk out of the barn in Minnesota with a W. Sometimes it’s not what you gain it’s what you avoid losing. Time to just take care of business and make this easy on the committee. 

Teetering:

Wisconsin: 16-12 (8-10) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (4-5) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (13) TW’s (5)

The Badgers almost had a dream 2-0 week after beating Iowa at home with ease but they fell tragically in OT @ Michigan. Wisconsin was up 3 with 2 seconds left in regulation and Hunter Dickinson hit a wild 3 to force OT and they couldn’t recover. Now the Badgers have a home game with Purdue on Thursday that could serve as the win to put them firmly on the right side of the bubble. Of course, they can’t lose to Minnesota later in the week, but if they can go 2-0 this week, knocking off Purdue in the process, I really think that would punch their ticket. That would be their 7th Q1 win which would put them up with some of the top seeds. Lose to Purdue and they might need to win a some games in the Big Ten tourney to stave off the other bubble teams. Huge week in Madison. 

Michigan: 17-12 (11-7) — Q1: (3-10) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-1) SOS: (26) TW’s (7)

Michigan had exactly the week that they needed to bolster their resumé as they went on the road to beat Rutgers and then beat fellow bubble team Wisconsin at home. However ugly it was it was 2-0 nonetheless and they’re now firmly in the Last 4 in/First 4 out conversations. They have skyrocketed up the bubble list over the last week and a half with 3 wins over projected tournament teams in Michigan St, Rutgers and Wisconsin. They now finish the season on the road @ Illinois and white hot Indiana. It may be expecting way too much to even want 1 of those to be wins, but if they can pull 1 of them off I think they’d undoubtedly be in the dance at that point. Going 0-2 isn’t the end of the road though, I just think they’ll need a win or 2 in the Big Ten tourney to squeak their way in. 

Penn St: 17-12 (8-10) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-5) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (41) TW’s (3)

In what was one of the biggest 2nd half collapses of the season, Penn St saw their hopes for an at-large bid take a major blow on Sunday blowing a 19 point 2nd half lead. They scored 5 points in the final 10 minutes, allowing Rutgers to come all the way back and steal the W. Had to be heartbreak in that locker room, with so much on the line and that big of a lead. However, I don’t think that was the final nail in the coffin, as they have two more Q1 opportunities left on the docket. They are of course still on the outside looking in, but a clean sweep the rest of the way would put them in the field in my mind. That of course is asking a lot, but they have to at least pick up the win over Maryland at home now to close out the season to have a chance. An 0-2 week would absolutely end their at-large chances. It is nut up or shut up time in Happy Valley. 

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–Big 12–

Locks:

         

Teetering:

W. Virginia: 16-13 (5-11) — Q1: (4-12) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (5) TW’s (4)

West Virginia did what it had to do last week, picking up a huge win at home over Oklahoma St and then had a huge opportunity slip away @ Kansas. Not a game they had to win but with a chance to tie/win on the last possession stealing that one would have been huge to make them feel more comfortable. To close out the season they have 2 more chances to really firm this thing up with a trip to Iowa St and then at home against K-State to close things out. Go 1-1 and I think they would be in at that point. However, what the committee does with these Big 12 teams who have so many losses is the biggest storyline, as it’s hard to keep them out just because every game is so difficult. Imagine Oklahoma St or WVU in the Mountain West, do they cruise? Are they looking like Nevada right now who we all think is pretty safely in the tourney? It sucks but it’s the reality, and if the Mountaineers want to feel safe I really think they need to go 1-1 this week. Make it an easier decision for the committee.  

Oklahoma St: 16-13 (7-9) — Q1: (5-10) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (7) TW’s (4)

Well the Pokes are sliding and sliding fast as by my estimation these 4 losses in a row have knocked them to the wrong side of the bubble. The loss at home vs K-State was devastating, as they led by 8 with 10 minutes left. Huge opportunity blown and now they stare down 2 more Q1 games this week as Baylor comes to Stillwater and then they head to Texas Tech. Somehow, someway they need to win at least 1 of these games to keep themselves in the conversation. I’m not saying the matchup with Texas Tech would for sure act as a play-in game, but for both teams that will be an abosolutely massive game as they both are on the outside looking in. I don’t see all 3 of these remaining Big 12 teams getting in, now maybe they do by knocking off some of the top dogs, but I just don’t know that I buy it. A loss to Baylor and the finale will be must-win for Ok-State, I know that much at least. 

Texas Tech: 16-13 (5-11) — Q1: (5-11) Q2: (0-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (18) TW’s (4)

Tech picked up another Q1 win @ Oklahoma last week but dropped the ball when TCU came to town on Saturday. A win in that one and they would be on the right side of the bubble right now but instead they head into another gauntlet of a week needing another big win. They first head to Kansas who is playing as well as anyone in the Country, so that’s likely a loss. That will set up the gigantic home game with Oklahoma St to serve as damn near a play-in game for the big dance. Obviously, going 2-0 this week would put them in, but 1-1 keeps them right there in the bubble conversations and gives them a chance to squeak in with a win or 2 in the Big 12 tournament. 5-13 in Q1/2 is by far the worst record of the 3 big 12 teams fighting for these spots, so more than anyone else every loss is extremely devastating at this point. That TCU loss might end up being their undoing. 

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–Big East–

Locks:

 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: N/A

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–Pac-12–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

USC: 21-8 (13-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (64) TW’s (2)

The Trojans just had as big of a week as anybody in the Country as they picked up 2 huge road wins over Colorado and Utah. They improved from 8-6 to 10-6 in Q1/2 games and now are firmly on the right side of the bubble ranging anywhere from a 9-11 seed. They also now get Arizona and Arizona St at home this week giving them 2 more big time opportunities to wrap this thing up. I see a 1-1 week as a punching of the ticket for USC, especially if it’s beating Arizona. 

Teetering

Oregon:  16-13 (9-8) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (3-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS (21) TW’s (3)

As much as I wanted to leave Oregon off of this entirely they do have 9 Q1/2 wins on the resumé, which is keeping them alive despite the myriad of bad losses. They have to go 2-0 this week, which will do nothing to help their cause but it will keep their bubble from bursting entirely. I still think a big win or 2 in the Pac-12 tourney is necessary but there is still a path for them to make it without winning the Conference tourney. 18-13 in this year’s Pac-12 just doesn’t sound like it’s enough to make it, and the more I write this the more I convince myself they don’t have a shot, but I guess what i’m saying is, there’s a chance. 

Arizona St: 20-9 (11-7) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (5-5) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS (77) TW’s (2)

As quickly as things turned dark for Arizona St losing at home to Colorado it turned much brighter with their last second win over Arizona. As massive of a Q1 win as it gets, they are now above .500 in Q1/2 games with 2 signature wins, 1 over Arizona and 1 on a neutral court vs Creighton. They are squarely in the Last 4 in/First 4 out discussions at this point with 2 very difficult games left @ UCLA/USC. Picking off 1 of them would almost lock the Sun Devils in for me, with 5 Q1 wins and being above .500 in that category the other bubble teams can’t compete with that. Losing both down the stretch however would likely force them to need some help in the Pac-12 tourney. That Colorado loss is looming so large right now, but they can make it meaningless if they can steal another road victory this week. Don’t be shocked if they roll into USC on Saturday and pull one out, especially if the Trojans knock off Arizona 2 days before. 

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–SEC–

Locks:

       

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Auburn: 19-10 (9-7) — Q1: (2-8) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (34) TW’s (4)

Apparently to my fellow bracket prognosticators losing game after game in blowout fashion is not good enough to drop Auburn off of the 8/9 seed line. For me, only 2 Q1 wins and a below .500 Q1/2 record has Auburn on the brink, as I have them in the First 4 in Dayton. The blowout loss this past week @ Kentucky was the epitome of what we’ve seen from Auburn since they were 16-3. They have gone 3-7 since then, dropping game after game and not really adding anything to the resumé. Now they are reeling, and now head to rival Alabama this week before Tennessee heads to town, 2 more Q1 games and if they fall to 2-10 in that category I’m not sure how the committee can possibly keep them in, especially with these Big 12/Big 10 teams who are going to have 4 or 5 or even 6 Q1 wins. The Tigers could make it easy if they just take care of Alabama at home, but that is far easier said than done.

Arkansas: 19-10 (8-8) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (10-1) Q4: (2-0) SOS (30) TW’s (4)

Arkansas is holding on right now, winning the games they should and continuing to drop Q1 games. They battled Alabama tough and looked the part of a NCAA tournament team, but ultimately it was another Q1 loss. With a road trip to Tennessee up next, it is looking like this Saturday’s matchup at home with Kentucky is going to be as close to must-win as it gets. Similar to Auburn, many have the Hogs higher than maybe their resumé deserves, but with two more losses dropping to 3-9 in Q1 and 7-11 in Q1/2 they would be right in the mix with all of those Big 12/Big 10 teams who are fighting for the last spots in the tourney. Win 1 of these final two and that might be enough for them to feel truly comfortable. 

Mississippi St: 19-10 (7-9) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (48) TW’s (4)

It was about as expected this week as Mississippi St fell to Kentucky but bounced back to complete the sweep over Ole Miss. They are still just barely on the right side of the bubble and this week presents two big opportunities to improve that. They go to Mizzou and then host Texas A&M in 2 giant Q1 games. After this week it’s a pretty easy end of the season, so picking up 1 of these will be huge come Selection Sunday. Win at home over A&M and I think they have a great shot at getting in the dance in season 1 under Chris Jans. Getting that Q1-2 record up to .500 would be huge in terms of locking this thing up though, so while a 2-0 record seems unlikely it would punch the ticket for the Bulldogs. Huge week for Mississippi St. 

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–Mountain West–

Locks:

On the Right Track:

Nevada: 19-7 (10-3) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (50) TW’s (2)

So Nevada did in fact lose @ Utah St, but the path forward remains the same, finish 4-0 beating up on some bad teams and you’re in the dance. It is just about avoiding disaster as the season winds down for the Wolfpack as it’s all Q3 or 4 the rest of the way. The biggest plus to their resumé right now is they don’t have the bad losses out there weighing them down like some of the other bubble teams do. Just maintain that clean sheet and I think this one is a wrap. Drop 1 or even 2 down the stretch and that’s when things will get dicey, but I don’t see that happening with the way they’ve handled bad teams so far this season. Nevada looks tourney bound, just have to take care of business. 

Boise St: 20-6 (11-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (6-0) SOS (77) TW’s (1)

The Broncos are in good shape right now, but the rest of the season is a really tough 4 game stretch that of course could sink the ship. It is also chalk full of opportunities to lock things up for them and it kicks off this week with New Mexico coming to Boise followed by a road game with San Jose St. 2 more Q2 wins and I think you can pencil the Broncos into the field of 68 as that 10-1 record would be too good to keep them out. They also still have a home game with San Diego St and a game @ Utah St to pick up some more Q1 wins to boot, so while 0-4 looks really scary just picking up the home wins should be enough to push them over the finish line. The Broncos looked poised to make it back-to-back trips to the dance for the first time in decades (potentially ever?)

Teetering:

New Mexico: 19-7 (7-7) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (8-3) Q4: (5-1) SOS (94) TW’s (3)

Well the collapse is in full swing as last week they dropped a home game against Wyoming to add another blow to this sinking ship. While they were able to bounce back in the road win over San Jose St, this thing is dying a slow painful death. 4-0 down the stretch is the only way they should feel comfortable entering the MW tourney, as they do get 2 more Q1 chances this week as they head to Boise St and then get San Diego St at home. Drop either one of those and now you just won’t have enough meat on the bone to makeup for 4 Q3-4 losses. No team made the tourney last year with 4 such losses, so I think it would take that 5-2 Q1 record to get it done. There is zero, and I mean zero, margin for error for New Mexico right now as they are playing for their lives the rest of the way. 

Utah St: 20-7 (10-5) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (7-1) Q3: (10-1) Q4: (3-1) SOS (89) TW’s (1) 

Utah St did exactly what they had to do this past week, going 2-0 at home and picking up another Q2 win over Nevada in the process. 0 wins in Q1 is what is holding them back at this point, as you at some point have to prove you can beat a really good team to make the tournament. Wyoming was the last team in the field last year with a 1-6 record in Q1 and was 9-1 in Q2 so Utah St isn’t out of it just yet but they have to have every win the rest of the way. This week they only have 1 and it’s on the road against Wyoming, an absolute can’t lose situation. A 3-0 finish to the season and the Aggies might find themselves on the right side of the bubble, as that would add 2 more Q1-2 wins with the Boise win being Q1. It’s not out of the cards right now for them, they just can’t afford to shoot themselves in the foot this week. As massive as it gets for a Q3 game. 

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–American–

Locks:

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: 

Memphis: 22-7 (12-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (7-3) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (79) TW’s (1)

Memphis continues to do the right things, beating both Wichita St (on the road) and then Cincy (at home). It was just what the doctor ordered as they added to their Q2 wins and continued to stay on track to land somewhere in the 9-10 seed range. They get a shouldn’t lose game @ SMU next week before the biggest game of the season occurs, at home vs Houston. Win that game and Memphis will punch their ticket. I think even with a loss they are still in good position, but that win over Houston would lock them in for sure. It’s a huge week for Memphis, but what they can’t afford is to fall in the look ahead trap and lose to SMU. Then a 2nd loss to Houston would put them in trouble. Big swing potential this week for the Tigers. 

–WCC–

Locks:

 

–Others–

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 24-3 (15-2) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (13-0) SOS (157) TW’s (1)

I think there’s an outside shot the committee would put FAU in if they’re 26-3 entering their Conference tourney and they get upset. That would just require two more road wins to close out the season over lowly Rice and LA Tech. Do that and if the loss is to a good team like UAB or N. Texas I think there’s a legitimate chance that Conference USA is a two-bid league. Their resumé stacked up against say a Texas Tech is damn near an impossible decision, and you could make a rational argument the team who played the brutal schedule should get the bid not the one with the extremely soft schedule. But, they made the quadrants for a reason, and the 5-3 Q1/2 record is a better win % than a lot of the bubble teams have in that category, so maybe just maybe the committee would have it in them. Hopefully we won’t have to find out.