Key Departures: Ayo Dosunmu (NBA); Giorgi Bezhanishvili (NBA); Adam Miller (–>LSU)

New In Town: Alfonso Plummer (<–Utah); Omar Payne (<–Florida); Ramses Melendez (#92); Luke Goode (#99); Brandin Podziemski (#105)

State of the Program:

                  Brad Underwood has come in and resuscitated a program that had devolved into irrelevance for the last 15 years after dominating in the early 2000’s. Last year’s group established the return of the Illini, ending the season on a 14-1 streak, including a Big Ten Tournament Championship, as they entered the Madness one of the hottest teams in the country. Unfortunately for them, they didn’t show up game 2 and got out-worked and out-executed by a less talented Loyola (Chi) team. A disappointing end to a great season, but the wave of momentum that has engulfed the program should continue to build in spite of the losses of Dosunmu and Adam Miller as they still welcome back a ton of firepower. That group is led by the return of consensus 2^nd Team All-American C Kofi Cockburn (JR), who returns to the Illini as a bona fide superstar. His dominance in the interior on both ends gives the Illini a weapon coaches dream about. Combine that with Big Ten 6^th MOY and All-Freshman Andre Curbelo (SO) ready to take over the offense at the point, alongside the 5^th year for Trent Frazier (SR) and Da’Monte Williams (SR), returning role players Jacob Grandison (SR) and Coleman Hawkins (SO), and it’s clear this program isn’t going anywhere.

What’s New:

                  Not only do the Illini welcome back a solid core from last year’s group, they’re bringing in a nice combination of transfers and Freshmen to help the cause, led by Utah transfer 6’1” G Alfonso Plummer (JR). Plummer is very similar to new teammate Trent Frazier, small, twitchy and throws absolute darts from outside. A career 40% 3-point shooter he averaged nearly 14 ppg last year for the Utes, with ability off catch and shoot opportunities as well as off the bounce, he should step in to fill the Adam Miller void. Next is Florida transfer 6’9” F Omar Payne (JR), who will likely serve as the primary backup to Cockburn inside. Payne is a freak athlete who never really found his footing in Gainesville, but he was a top-50 recruit and should rebound and block shots as a nice backup big. DIII transfer 6’6” G/F Austin Hutcherson (JR) also returns from injury looking to get his first D1 action this season. He was a prolific scorer at the DIII level and will compete for the starting 3 spot. Ramses Melendez (#92) leads the freshmen group as a 6’7” SF who comes in as a good athlete that is very effective on the catch and shoot from outside. He’ll need to improve his playmaking to get to the next level, but his stroke and athleticism should make him a productive player for this program. This year he will battle veterans for backup minutes. The 6’7” SF Luke Goode (#99) is a very similar prospect to Melendez, a little less athletic but a sniper from deep he should develop as a solid piece. His athleticism likely limits him this season, as a redshirt seems likely to be on the horizon for him. Brandin Podziemski (#105) rounds out the class as a 6’5” SG that I am the most high on in this entire class. Rankings have him last but his playmaking ability and feel for the game look to be already a step ahead of his classmates, and his lefty stroke looks good as well. He knows how to create for himself with ability at all 3 levels, and that distinguishes him from the other 2. Not saying he has a big role this year, he may even redshirt, but when it’s all said and done I like his production to be the highest of this group.

Prediction:

                  Underwood has a lot to work with here, with a veteran core, impact transfers and a nice group of Freshmen. I’d expect Curbelo and Frazier to man the backcourt, with Cockburn and Grandison likely starting at the 4/5 spots. The 3 is where things get interesting, as Plummer is likely the 5^th best guy but starting 3 6’1” guys seems unlikely. A 3 man platoon in the backcourt seems likely, with Hutcherson the best fit at the 3. He could also go big and put the 6’10” sniper Hawkins out there with Grandison. Regardless, the trio of Curbelo/Frazier/Cockburn immediately make this team a top contender, and the complimentary pieces falling into place only furthers the case. They were top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency last season, and I expect with the return of Kofi the defense does not fall off one bit. The loss of Ayo hurts the offense, but Curbelo is ready to explode as the QB of the offense, and it may actually eliminate their tendency to stand and watch Ayo go to work, helping them be more involved as a unit. Frazier/Plummer/Hutcherson are all good/great shooters and will make one of the better backcourts in the Conference. Kofi seals the deal if he can repeat his AA performance from last season, creating a 3-headed monster at the top of the Big Ten all of which are more than capable of representing the Conference in the Final Four.

Key Departures: Aaron Wheeler (–>St. John’s)

New In Town: Trey Kaufman (#43); Caleb Furst (#63); Brian Waddell (NR)



State of the Program:

            Matt Painter and the Boilermakers enter this season on the heels of what has to be the best coaching job of Painter’s career. Last year’s group featured 0 Seniors and only 5 guys who had ever played collegiate basketball, and they rallied from a 7-5 start to finish 4^th in the Big Ten and earn a 4 seed in the big dance. The disappointing 1^st round upset should serve as both motivation and valuable experience for one of this year’s favorites in the Conference, as Painter gets back all 5 starters and 8 of 9 regular rotation guys. That returning group is headlined by 1^st Team All-Conference big man Trevion Williams (SR) and All-Freshman and emerging star Jaden Ivey (SO). Ivey came to campus a year ago like a wild mustang that Painter was challenged with taming, as he was filled with untethered ability and unwavering confidence, which led to as many highlight reel moments as head scratching ones. His numbers on the season won’t wow you, but if you were paying close attention he came on strong to end the season, averaging 15.8 ppg the last 10, scoring in double figures 9 of those 10. The game seemed to click for him, as he worked to harness his limitless potential, and the anticipation of a Sophomore jump has Boilermaker fans oozing with excitement. Joining Ivey in a crowded backcourt are 4 returning pieces in PG Eric Hunter (SR), G Sasha Stefanovic (SR), G Brandon Newman (SO) and PG Isiah Thompson (JR). I would expect things to look similar as a year ago, with Hunter and Stefanovic to join Ivey as starters, Newman rotating heavily and Thompson spelling Hunter at the point. The frontcourt is equally as loaded, with 3 returning and 2 stud Freshmen set to arrive on campus. At the 5 should be the classic 2 man rotation Painter deploys seemingly every year, with Trevion the headliner and 7’4”All-Freshman returnee Zach Edey (SO) as the best backup 5 in the country. Mason Gillis (SO) also returns after stealing the starting 4 spot and never looking back in his first season, but some off the court trouble clouds his future, especially with the incoming Freshmen who will both be competing for those minutes. All of this firepower have made expectations the highest they’ve been in West Lafayette since the Baby Boilers era. 

Reinforcements:

And about those Freshmen. 6’8” PF Trey Kaufman (#43) headlines this year’s group and boy is he an exciting prospect. Reminding you of a guy like De’Andre Hunter, he’s a matchup nightmare as he can punish smaller defensive players with a crafty post-up game while also having the ability to attack bigger, slower defenders off the bounce. His jump shot looks good and he can stretch out to the 3 point line, however it’s a bit slow from catch to release, something he will need to improve, a la former Boiler Vince Edwards. If he can hang defensively he could leap Gillis at the 4, but regardless he should have a big role in the rotation either way. Not to be out-hyped is 2021 Indiana Mr. Basketball 6’8” PF/C Caleb Furst (#63). The southpaw projects as a 4 year mega producer, similar to a guy like former ND star Luke Harangody, as his athleticism will limit his NBA future but his craftiness and motor will eventually make him a nightly double-double threat. He flashes a nice lefty hook and his jump shot looks like it can develop into a solid weapon, but he’ll come onto campus looking to carve out minutes as the 5^th interior player on this roster. 6’7” Brian Waddell (NR) is the 3^rd member of this class and will likely redshirt year one as an under-recruited, high IQ high motor kid. He will surely make his presence known in a couple of years. It’s simply the Purdue way…cue the Grady Eifert highlights.

Prediction:

It’s an embarrassment of riches for Coach Painter as he has a strong group of 10 guys that could, and should, play their own important role for this year’s team. How he handles the Gillis/Kaufman/Furst conundrum is the storyline to watch early. Will he go big and slide Gillis to the 3 some to work in Kaufman/Furst at the 4? And what does that do to the 5 man backcourt that would be squeezed to 2 positions? Eventually I see one of Thompson/Furst getting buried to create a 9 man rotation, and it could even be matchup dependent to determine the small/big lineup. Either way, there will be heavy competition for playing time beyond Ivey and Williams, and as they say iron sharpens iron so I can only expect Painter to relish being in this position. On a macro level, thanks to the duo of Jaden Ivey and Trevion Williams this team is positioned to cut nets this season, as a Conference championship and Final Four trip are as realistic goals as I can imagine for Purdue. How Ivey develops as a star and go-to scorer is the key factor in getting this team over the hump, and if it happens Purdue will be must watch TV all season and can vie for a National Championship.