For those of you new here, Week 1 will give you a full breakdown of what we’re doing.
We’re back for an update and we have some adjustments to discuss as we continue to mold this new project. The biggest change was to the “Solid” Archetype where I cut out what I would say was a hole in the middle, where the teams that lied there were neither Great offensively or defensively, kind of living in a middle ground. This currently is where Nebraska and Iowa reside, and once I ran the numbers they aligned, results wise, closer to the Wannabe archetype than the Solid archetype. This move shored up the Solid group to make it more reliable and right in line with Strong Enough as a 3rd tier grouping of reliability behind Elite and Great, with little change to the Wannabe archetype – an easy decision.
Next was just a potentially temporary move to help showcase how ridiculous Michigan has been so far, as they currently sit in a territory only 5 teams have occupied since 2002. All 5 of those teams made it to the Final 4 with 3 of them advancing to the title game. Clearly that is off the charts reliability, as a 100% hit rate on Final 4 trips is unprecedented. The line of demarcation is a > 50 net efficiency++, or spread between O++ and D++. I have chiseled out that section and dubbed it the “Juggernaut” archetype. The rarity calls for special treatment in my opinion, and it will be fascinating to watch and see if they can keep this level of play up all the way to March entering the tourney. For reference, 2024 Florida is included in this along with 2019 Virginia who both won the title. The all-time biggest spread was 2015 Kentucky who went undefeated until the Final 4, and Michigan trails then by a couple of tenths of a point so very close.
Week 2 Thoughts:
As I said above Michigan is the story at the top, but we still have 5 Elite teams which would tie the record all-time and surpass last year’s 4. Overall with the carve out in the Solid group as well as some teams rising and falling we’ve dropped to just 16 in our reliable categories after debuting with 20. I still expect efficiencies to drop as most teams have 18-20 games against conference opponents to go, so competition will rise and teams will have poor showings. On a micro level, clearly Vandy has to be the surprise of the season jumping all the way into “Great” territory with 3-star Sophomore PG Tyler Tanner being the story early on. I think most of the others involved here are usual suspects, and while some may be over-performing to have Vandy what I would consider 7th overall and the leader in the SEC is shocking. Bama has finally fallen to where I think they should reside as a Matador, and Kansas has become our first Grinder to watch. Last year it was St. John’s holding down the grinder spot week after week, and they were upset in R2. I don’t want to be alarmist for Jayhawk fans so I’ll say it’s just December, long way to go and your best player has been hurt so remain calm. All in all it’s still early but some interesting story lines are developing. Next update will be 2 weeks from now as I’ll pause for Christmas. See you then.
Welcome to the place where we have set out to use historical March Madness results to try and identify the characteristics that most often lead to success in the big dance. Or simply, to define what true Championship DNA looks like. I understand many will scoff at the idea of basketball being reduced to numbers on a screen, and trust me I can sympathize with that, but what I’ve done is accept the reality that my own eyeballs cannot consistently make correct predictions in March. Data can do a much better job than my eyeballs, and most likely yours as well. I’m here to show you that you in fact can reliably start to sort the top teams in the country and recognize which teams are going to have the best shot at the Final 4 and ultimately winning a national title. Many have tried, often saying something like “no team outside of x or outside of y that also hasn’t done z has won it all”, but I’m going to try and make it more about reliability than elimination. Allow me to explain.
The Data:
The base layer of this is that I’ve taken pre-tourney Kenpom efficiency data from every season since 2002 and compiled it. The obvious thing when looking at the numbers on the surface is that the game is changing stylistically as teams chase offensive efficiency and overall offensive skill develops. To put it concretely, average offensive efficiency in 2002 was 102 while currently in 2025 it is 107.4. To get even more granular, the 2nd best offensive team in 2002 was Oregon with an Ortg of 119.9. Today they would rank 23rd. In their day, that Oregon team was an elite offensive group relative to their competition, so we need a way to normalize this rating in order to fairly judge teams across time. We need to put every current team on the exact same scale, so we’ll be using normalized efficiency (OE++ / DE++) so a dominant 2002 offense isn’t punished next to today’s higher-scoring game. Think of it like this: KenPom data will tell you who’s good any given year relative to that year’s competition. OE++ and DE++ tell you how good they are compared to every tournament field for the last 23 years. Ultimately, the goal was to confidently be able to remove team name and season, and be left with a fair assessment of all teams since 2002 and their results in March.
Once the data was compiled it was time to test my original theory and see if I could identify common characteristics that most often led to deep runs in the tournament. My original hypothesis was that despite high overall efficiency, the teams that lean heavily on one end of the floor struggle more than well balanced teams, even if less efficient overall. As I studied and pulled the data my hypothesis was largely proven right, so I began to try and classify certain archetypes of teams. I landed on 8 key archetypes; Elite – Great – Solid – Strong Enough – Matadors – Grinders – Wannabes – Vanilla. Here is the table with exact historical results: Note: R2 indicates teams who reached the 2nd round, all the way to CH which indicates the teams who reached the Titlegame (46 total over 23 years).
For some additional proof this is still applying today even as the game changes:
2025: Final 4 was comprised of our 4 Elite teams. A direct reflection of how strong the field was at the top.
2024: Only 1 Elite team – UConn who won the title
2023: 0 Elite teams and the bracket descended into madness. However, our 2nd most reliable team UConn (Strong Enough) won the title as a 4 seed.
For a clear example of this playing out on the other end of the spectrum with specific ++ data consider this. Of the top-5 OE++ teams since 2002, two of them lost the first weekend – 2012 Mizzou (Matador) and 2014 Creighton (Matador). Both of them struggled to defend, which is why they landed in the matador archetype, and they suffered first weekend upsets. Meanwhile, the other 3 all fell in a reliable archetype and made deep runs, including the greatest offensive team 2015 Wisconsin (OE++ 131.87) who lost in the title game to Duke.
While nothing is 100% you can clearly see the stronger you are overall, combined with the ability to succeed on both ends of the floor, are strong indicators of your reliability to have March success. So, moving forward I am going to post a weekly update on Friday morning’s showing where the top-40 teams in Kenpom stand. For context, entering the tournament just 5 of the 92 (5.4%) total Final 4 teams since 2002 have entered the tourney outside the top-40 so that is why I landed on 40.
It begins today: Here is your Week 1 Championship DNA Board
Week 1 Thoughts:
The obvious thing jumping out at me early this year is we have a lot of really good teams at the top of the sport right now. I have a few thoughts on why, but let’s just get it out there, 20 teams in my reliable archetypes, including 5 in elite, would make for an outlier season. I do not expect that to be the final number once we get to Selection Sunday. In general, these efficiency numbers tend to bloat early in the season thanks to cupcakes on the schedule that the really good teams handle with ease, so I expect the rigor of conference play to diminish the number of teams in these reliable archetypes at least by a handful. There is a competing force as well though, as I do think the transfer portal and influx of talent from overseas is causing the teams at the top to improve. It has never been easier for a team to plug holes, reload after guys leave and even add depth, than it is right now. Unfortunately, for those who love upsets and chaos in March, we may be moving toward an era where that is drastically reduced. I don’t want to jump to that conclusion just yet, but after last year having all 4 number 1 seeds be dominant teams that all made the Final 4, and the way this year is starting out, you can’t help but go there. The exciting thing is we’re going to get to see this all play out as this will be a weekly update, so we’ll see if it’s more bloat from early season cupcakes or if we truly are seeing a concentration of talent at the top of the sport. Until next week, enjoy the hoops.
Rinse and repeat for Duke right now as they continue to roll in top FR classes that produce one-and- done NBA talent while competing at the top level of the sport. Jon Scheyer has made a seamless transition to HC after Coach K’s retirement and seems to be elevating each year, with last year’s ACC title and Final 4 trip major feathers in his cap as he continues to prove himself. What’s most impressive is he’s getting the more unheralded guys to stick around, which helps with roster continuity and means he doesn’t have to rely on the portal. They are up there with Purdue/Houston/UConn in terms of being able to hold on to guys and develop them into great players, which feels old school at this point with how much roster turnover there is. Now to this year, as we have 4 more one-and-done prospects joining that group of 6 returners all looking to fill the void left behind by the 5 NBA draft picks from last year’s group. The Boozer twins are the big name tickets, but Dame Sarr is expected to come in and be a major impact guy and Khamenia is also highly regarded and should push returning wing Isaiah Evans for time. It feels like Boozer/Foster/Evans in the backcourt with Sarr and the other Boozer inside, but they also have more experienced guys in Brown and Ngongba at their disposal as well. It’s an embarrassment of riches for Scheyer as even if the youngsters aren’t ready right away he has a group of returning guys that could be a competitive starting 5 themselves. The ceiling obviously is going to be determined by the FR and their ability to be productive, and Cam Boozer already looks the part. They may take a small step back defensively I will say, as Flagg and Maluach inside made life very difficult for teams with their length, but they’ve been consistently strong on that end under Scheyer even without those 2 so major regression not expected. At the end of the day, they should be one of the best teams in the country and really only challenged by Louisville at the top of the ACC, with a goal of a return to the Final 4 very realistic, especially if the FR can be stars.
2.) Louisville (#12)
Pat Kelsey has my complete and total respect after what he did last year, taking a Louisville program that was dead and instantly reviving them. To paint the picture, they had endured 2 seasons that saw them go 5-35 in ACC play prior to his arrival. Immediately, he got them to the tourney and a staggering 18-2 record in ACC play. Unreal, and one of the best stories in all of college hoops last year, and it looks like it should continue. He brings back a major piece in J’Vonne Hadley and also promising big man Kasean Prior who was really good for 7 games until he got injured for the season. Top-50 recruit Khani Rooths is back as well and Khalifa and Rodgers should be good depth pieces. The story is going to be the backcourt additions, and man do I love a HC who has some self awareness and understands how to build a roster to fit his system. Kelsey loves playing fast and launching from deep, and the transfer guards coming in all scored 14+ ppg while shooting over 40% from 3 last year, with Conwell and McKneeley doing it at the P5 level. On paper it’s one of the most dangerous teams in the country in terms of outside shooting, as Hadley also shot well at 38% from 3 last year. I fully expect them to leap into the top-10 offensively this year, as they kind of struggled at times shooting and finished below 33% from the outside. That number is going to jump up dramatically with this backcourt. On top of the transfers they added 5-star freshman PG Mikel Brown Jr, who is undoubtedly going to be an important playmaker and has a chance to average a lot of assists with all of these shooters around him. With all of that said it’s pretty obvious what I think of this Louisville team, and while I won’t predict them to win the natty, if they can defend at the same level they did last year they are clearly a Final 4 threat with all this firepower offensively.
3.) North Carolina
There’s no way around it, this program is slipping under Hubert Davis, with last year’s disappointment just the latest step toward Davis losing control. Even though they were propped up by the committee and given a bid when they likely shouldn’t have been, they still lost in the true 1st round and now see an insane amount of talent leave the program. Not only that, look at what is coming in? Is that the kind of class you would expect from what is supposed to be a top-tier program in the country? I don’t know if he’s not tapped into the resources necessary to hit on the big transfers, or simply guys don’t want to play for him, but to be forced to rely on a guard that scored 10 ppg at Colorado St to replace RJ Davis is a recipe for regression. To say the least, there’s a huge drop off from the top-2 to the rest of the conference, and while there are other programs who are looking to rise up and challenge those 2, the Tar Heels appear to be sprinting the opposite direction. Despite the negative framing, they still should be in the 3rd to 5th range in the ACC, which speaks to the weakness of the ACC in hoops, but this school expects to compete with Duke at the top and be a threat to make the Final 4 every year. Davis earned a longer leash due to the run they went on in year 1 to the title game, but let’s not forget they were a disappointing 8 seed that year. A couple of years later they had a good year, earned a 1 seed and lost in the Sweet 16. My prediction is they are still an ok team, with a strong frontcourt behind Veesar and the 5-Star FR Wilson, but the guard play will not be good enough for them to be a top-25 team. My attitude is more a reflection of how far below expectations for the program they are, and less how bad they will be, as they won’t be bad per se. At the end of the day, given the weakness of the ACC, they probably will be on the bubble again begging the committee to throw them a bone yet again. So how long does this mega brand lift an incompetent HC?
4.) NC State
A program looking to move in the opposite direction of the Tar Heels is this NC State program, as they’ve hired Will Wade from McNeese and he has completely transformed this roster. I will say, we’ve seen these rebuilds have wide ranging results, but what we know about Wade is he can build a program, whether that includes breaking all the rules is a different discussion. He did it at Chattanooga, LSU and then again at McNeese, so the man can coach and evaluate talent. He has brought in a big transfer class of course and it’s headlined by Darrion Williams who will be the man here and is surrounded by some intriguing pieces. The backcourt will likely be some combination of Holloman/Arceneaux/Breed/Copeland. Those guys are solid but not elite by any means, and the frontcourt leaves a little to be desired as well with Ven-Allen Lubin likely the best bet to form an undersized 4/5 combo with Williams. They clearly will lack size, but each of Wade’s last 3 seasons as a HC his teams have been top-15 at generating TO’s so he’s very comfortable playing smaller, more athletic guys that can switch, trap and generally apply pressure defensively. They will struggle to rebound but he hopes to generate more possessions than they give up in the turnover/offensive rebound battle. My biggest worry is outside shooting as none of the transfers have been consistent shooters from 3. They will have to get out and run and get easy buckets in transition, and when they don’t they’ll turn to guys like Williams and Copeland to create both for themselves and others. It’s not a sure thing by any means, but I do think there’s enough meat on this bone for Wade to have some success in year 1. I would predict a tourney appearance but at best like a 7 seed, more likely 10 or the First 4. A good first step, but certainly not a roster that guarantees future or current success.
5.) Notre Dame
I will be honest last year was a disappointment from Coach Shrewsberry and this Irish team, but there were injuries to their top players that impacted it for sure. I entered last year with hope it would be the breakthrough under Shrews, and a year later I’m doubling down, betting that I was simply a year early on my prediction. What I know is this guy can really coach the game, and judging by the fact they were under .500 and only 1 guy transferred out of the program it’s clear he has these guys bought in. Burton is a legit 1st team ACC guy and should be talked about more on All-American lists, and he certainly will be if they turn things around and compete in the ACC. If he and Braeden Shrewsberry can stay healthy this year they form a dynamic backcourt, and they will be surrounded by guys like Sir Mohammed and Cole Certa who are back looking to make SO jumps after coming in as top recruits, as well as another top recruit in Jalen Haralson. As a whole this should be the most talented they’ve been at the 1-4 spots since Shrews has been here, so long as the young guys are developing. The key figure is going to be Carson Towt and how he is able to hold down the 5 spot. He averaged a double-double at Northern Arizona and for this team to have success he has to be the starting 5 and give them something like 8 and 8 a night. With this I’m betting on coaching, development and the idea that the old school way of building a program can still work in college ball. Yes, you can build through the portal with endless money, but I firmly believe you can still recruit, develop and then compete as long as you can get the guys to buy in and stick around. He’s done the latter, now we just need to see the former come to fruition. I think it does this year and they sneak back into the tourney as a dangerous team behind Burton.
6.) Syracuse
Syracuse appears to be yet another victim of poor hiring in the ACC as Red Autry has gone just 20-22 in a bad ACC over his first 2 seasons at the helm. This has to be his last chance to prove he can succeed as the HC here, as the talent on the roster is plenty good enough to get to the tournament, and certainly shouldn’t wind up 115th in the final KP rankings like last year. They brought in Nait George to run the point next to JJ Starling giving them a very strong backcourt. Those guys will be complimented by Kingz and the freshmen Sadiq White and Kiyan Anthony (son of legendary Carmelo Anthony). The added excitement of having Melo’s son on the roster is only going to heighten the expectations from the fanbase, and frankly where I have them in this preview is where the expectation should be. Freeman is a beast inside and the backcourt is full of guys who can score the rock. The onus is on Autry to get them to play winning basketball and not like a glorified AAU team. That is the big question, and I could go on and on as to why that will or will not happen. What I’ve chosen to do is properly lay out what should be expected, independent of whether or not I believe Autry has what it takes to accomplish the feat. As I’ve said before, coaching is largely measured by your success relative to expectations, so to properly set them here at a tourney berth and being competitive with the upper echelon in this conference sets us up to fairly judge Autry. To this point he’s done less with more, so we’ll see if he can finally turn the talent here into winning.
7.) SMU
I actually have some hope for what Andy Enfield is doing here with SMU as I think they over-performed their talent level last year, and while they did lose Chuck Harris I think the combo of Pierre and Washington could make them more explosive this year. Boopie Miller will still run the show, and they should get some development from Yigitoglu who was a bright spot in year 1 here. They will need some of these young guys to get up to speed quickly though as their depth is mostly going to be from this big group of FR. As an aside, being a Pacers fan and seeing the name Jermaine O’Neal Jr popup is both a nice bump of nostalgia as well as a reminder of how old I am, but even aside from my own connections it is wild as someone born in the 90’s how many of these NBA player’s sons are entering college hoops right now. Back to the issue at hand though, how good can this team really be? I actually do think the ceiling here could be squeaking into the tourney, as Miller is dynamic and I do think the transfers in will help replace what was lost and maybe even elevate them. I’ll say it again, but a couple of the FR absolutely have to emerge and give them productive minutes off the bench, and if that happens they will have a fighting chance to breakthrough and get back to the dance.
8.) Virginia
Unfortunately, we aren’t even halfway through the ACC and I’m already beyond the teams I have hope for making the tourney this year, and boy do we have a ways to go. We’ll start with this Virginia team that is still desperately trying to get a grip on things after Tony Bennett’s sudden retirement prior to last season. They endured one disappointing season under interim Ron Sanchez that saw them go sub .500 for the first time since Bennett’s first year here in 2010 and quickly moved on to rising star Ryan Odom. Odom has made stops at UMBC (where he famously beat UVA as a 16 seed), Utah St and VCU, taking all of them to the dance by year 2 there. If you’re a UVA fan that’s where your hope lies, trusting he will be able to do here what he did at his previous stops with fewer resources. I already think in year 1 there is at least some hope you’ll see a step in the right direction, as the backcourt looks like it could be pretty strong with Malik Thomas, Dallin Hall and Jacari White. The strength of that trio, and even beyond them to guys like Lewis and Tillis, is outside shooting, as they have 4 guys who shot 39% or better last year. Inside is a big question mark but hey, for a school that has played at a snails pace and struggled to score maybe a year of scoring with fun guards will be a breath of fresh air, even if they struggle to rebound and defend the paint. I expect a step in the right direction but not an instant turnaround, with eyes on year 2 under Odom being the year they get back into contention.
9.) Clemson
Out of respect to Brad Brownell and what he is usually able to accomplish I have Clemson right here in the middle of the league, but it would not be hyperbole to suggest this is one of the worst rosters on paper he has had. Nick Davidson coming in gives them a glimmer of hope, but ultimately it’s a bunch of young FR and mid major transfers trying to compete in what is supposed to be a power conference league. What you can learn by looking at his tenure here though is he has had issues building sustained success YOY. I fear this will be one of those regression years as he tries to reload with young talent that he eventually develops into a tourney worthy team a season or two down the road. He faces challenges that some of these SEC programs do where the focus is fully on football, so his success is a major credit to his coaching ability and knack for finding unheralded guys and developing them into productive ACC players. Is this the 9th most talented roster in the conference on paper? No, but I still think he finds a way to get them into the upper half of this league, but that still likely won’t be good enough to get them to a 3rd straight tourney. Step back for Clemson but not anything abnormal for what we’ve seen under Brownell.
10.) Miami
Well, I have no idea what to make of this Miami program as they move on from the Jim Larranaga era that actually saw some successful seasons at various periods, but it really fell off the last couple of years. Being Miami they always are able to bring in talent, so new head man Jai Lucas gets his first crack at being a D1 HC in quite a generous spot in south Florida. He has a trio of transfers that give them some hope in Donaldson, Reneau and Washington, but as we all know a couple of transfers that scored in double figures before does not equate to wins. At the end of the day I have zero clue what style of play Lucas is going to try and put out there or what identity this team will take, but he’s stated he’s a defensive guy which would be a welcome site here where defense has mostly been an afterthought in recent years. I would be shocked if he was able to take this roster and turn it into a tourney team, but you can never say never, and that top trio I mentioned earlier could be good enough if they do play tough D. At the end of the day, this preview probably told you very little other than that Lucas is the new HC, but genuinely how could we know anything beyond that given his lack of experience? That fact could make this a very awesome story if he hits, or a very disappointing hire because this should be a program that can be a top contender in this conference given its location and resources.
11.) Stanford
The Cardinal haven’t been relevant in hoops in a long time, but Kyle Smith enters year 2 with legitimate momentum after taking Stanford above .500 in conference play for the first time since 2018. The bad news is the best talent is gone, but look at that roster retention, that has to be fantastic news for anyone that cares about this program as he clearly has this group bought in to what he’s selling. Do I expect the talent to be good enough to compete? No. However, what I know about Kyle Smith is he is able to extract more out of a roster than you can see on paper, so while the overall returning production is low, the pedigree of talent is low and the incoming guys are unheralded, I think they’ll be feisty and play very hard. That will be good enough to keep them out of the cellar, and while I think the conference record may take a step back, I think there’s an outside chance a star emerges and all of a sudden you have a team to take serious. That’s all my belief in Kyle Smith who built Wazzu into a tourney team with limited talent, primarily by slowing the game down and playing exceptional D. I expect that and because of that I expect them to finish better than the roster suggests.
12.) Georgia Tech
It felt like the 8-4 finish to the season last year could have been the start of something here for Damon Stoudamire, but with the amount of turnover it feels like it’s going to be hard to sustain it. The good news is they played much better defensively, and down the stretch they picked up wins over Louisville and Clemson who were both tourney teams. 3 key pieces are back, but the rest of the production is gone and will have to be replaced by an pretty underwhelming incoming class. The transfers are highlighted by 2 mid-major guards, with Washington likely to start at the point. I’m not going to even criticize Stoudamire in terms of coaching, he just doesn’t have the talent to really compete, and that’s where the criticism comes as he’s in control of that as a talent evaluator. Maybe he’s not getting the resources needed, but whatever the reason they are going to continue to be in the bottom half of this conference without an influx of talent. Don’t get me wrong, they won’t be awful, but in terms of breaking through and seeing a major step forward this isn’t going to be the year, and it’s year 3. Is it ever going to come? So far, he hasn’t cracked the top-100 in final KP standings, so maybe we start with that as a next step.
13.) Wake Forest
I really thought last year was going to be the breakthrough for Steve Forbes at Wake as he finally seemed to have the talent to get to the tourney. They were in great shape, albeit barely, as February came to a close and then they dropped two inexplicable games to Virginia and NC State who were sub-100 ranked teams and it burst their bubble. That core group is now gone, with only a couple of the younger holdovers still around. I have a hard time believing they will be as good as last year’s team based on the talent, but guys like Juke Harris and Omaha Biliew were highly regarded out of high school so maybe they can break out with a larger role. The transfers are all inefficient shooters outside of Mason, so I imagine that will be a major struggle, not to mention the obvious lack of size with nobody over 6’9″ on the roster. Ultimately I’m burned by my faith in them last year and with all that talent gone to waste I just can’t believe in Forbes, not to mention the talent on paper doesn’t jump out at you anyway. Back to irrelevance for Wake this year.
14.) Pitt
I have trouble year in and year out buying into Pitt and Jeff Capel, who has been mostly underwhelming over his 7 seasons at the helm, turning in just 1 trip to the tournament and just 2 seasons above .500 in conference play. What I’m saying is, he’s struggling to attract/evaluate/develop talent to the extent he can compete in the upper half of this conference on a consistent basis. Then I look at this roster and the production that was lost from an already struggling team and wonder how anyone would anticipate this being a step forward for this program. The only way this prediction is way off is if the Australian transfers hit and lead the show alongside Corhen and a developing Cummings. That 1-2 punch should be pretty good, but around them will be a ton of question marks in terms of scoring. Add on to that they’ve only been top-50 defensively once in his 7 years, so don’t expect much on that end either. Long story short, both the on paper talent and history under Capel give me very little hope for Pitt to be relevant in the ACC this year.
15.) Virginia Tech
Mike Young got off to a hot start at VA Tech, getting them to 2 tourney’s in his first 3 seasons, but it’s now been 3 straight seasons at .500 or below in ACC play with no tickets to the dance. This may be his last run at it as I feel like this program does care about being relevant in hoops at least a little bit. My issue with his coaching is they never really are great defensively and they play a slow pace, so they will have to be uber efficient on offense to sustain success. The transfers they brought in at the guards spots are anything but that historically, and while I like Hansberry inside to pair with Lawal I just don’t see the guard play being good enough. They were one of the most turnover prone teams in the country last year so that will need to be rectified as well. I don’t know man, I know they have a coaching search in football upcoming but if I was in Blacksburg and cared about hoops I think I’d be ready to move on. There just seems to be too much to correct from last year, and maybe the international guys, specifically Neoklis Avdalas who has generated some buzz, can come in and help more than I’m giving credence to, but at the end of the day I just don’t see it with this roster in terms of getting into the upper half of the league.
16.) Florida St
Alright so Leonard Hamilton is out after some really good years that were bookended by a nosedive to irrelevancy that saw them finish no better than 79th (KP) or with more than 17 wins over the last 4 seasons. To replace him? A first year HC in Luke Loucks who returns to his alma matter after a coaching stint in the NBA as an assistant, a growing trend we’re seeing across the sport these days. I would imagine we’ll see a NBA style of play here, although that’s not guaranteed it just has to be the assumption as we’ve seen it elsewhere, check out BYU. The issue is the roster as it’s just not very good, albeit with some bright mid-major players you just need more than that to open things up and play free and loose at the college level. They have some good 3 point shooters, but inside has almost no proven commodities and all of the production essentially is at the mid-major level, so assuming it’s all going to translate seamlessly would be naive given what we’ve seen across the sport. Do I think this hire will be a failure? Frankly, I don’t think anyone could possibly know, but year 1 with this roster it would be a major accomplishment to push for a. .500 record in conference. In the ACC that doesn’t get you close to the dance, but it would be a major step toward attracting talent back to Tallahassee, a program that just 5-10 years ago that was a perennial contender in the ACC.
17.) Cal
Another program that is kind of stuck in the mud here with Cal, as they haven’t been relevant since Cuonzo Martin was here almost a decade ago. They’re on HC number 3 since then, with Mark Madsen now entering year 3 trying to get this program off the mat. He has seemingly made no progress, but he’s been bringing in decent talent and he has finished better than predicted by the likes of KP each of his first 2 years. The issue is the starting point, as even with the improvement they have yet to crack the top-100. The incoming talent this year once again provides a touch of hope, as they have some power conference dudes like Chris Bell, Dai Dai Ames and Justin Pippen looking for bigger roles. They have a few guys back as well so hope isn’t at 0 by any means, but when we say hope I really mean to just take another step forward, not to breakthrough by any means. I would be impressed if they could finish above .500 overall and push for .500 in conference play. I doubt they’ll get there, but maybe they could crack the top-100 overall and show some signs of life.
18.) Boston College
I hate to be dismissive but after 4 years of Earl Grant going below .500 here, with year 4 being a bottoming out moment at just 4-16 in the ACC, it’s hard to get even remotely excited about the state of this program. There’s some talent here, there’s some returning pieces that were productive, but how much is that really saying when the team won just 4 games in maybe the worst ACC we’ve ever seen. Once they start taking themselves seriously maybe I will. And to be clear, what I mean is no serious program is holding on to a HC that goes below .500 in conference play in his first 4 years with year 4 being the worst. That is cause for firing at any serious program, yet here we sit heading into year 5 with zero being accomplished and zero momentum being build. Suffice it to say, I don’t have much hope for BC this year.
The defending champs have reloaded around a strong group of returners from last year’s group, led again by Todd Golden who has proven he was the exact right hire, bringing the Gators back to their championship caliber they had under Billy Donovan nearly 20 years ago. This year’s team will feature many familiar faces, especially in the froncourt as the entire 4 man rotation at the 4/5 spots are back. The backcourt is an entirely different situation though, as all 3 starters are gone and Aberdeen, the first guy off the bench, is also gone. That turns our attention to the portal, as Golden brought in 3 dynamite guards to replace what was lost, with Boogie Fland, Xaivian Lee and AJ Brown all poised to play major roles in this backcourt rotation. Freshmen CJ Ingram and Alex Lloyd will also compete for minutes, giving them 5 newcomers all looking to start. Klavzar and Brown coming back will have a chance as well, but we didn’t seem much of Brown and Klavzar was mostly just a catch a shoot option. I would expect the transfers and Ingram to dominate the minutes, and I think it’s a talented enough group to pair with this dominant frontcourt to make the Gators a threat to go back-to-back. It is all going to come down to how the guards defend, as guys like Richard and Martin were menaces on D for a team that went from 94th to 6th on D from 2023 to 2024. That was the difference for this program, and if they can continue that dominant effort on that end they will continue to be a force. My prediction is they take a small step back on D, but that still leaves an elite team offensively that plays solid D, good enough to win the SEC and make a deep run in March.
2.) Kentucky (#7)
The transition from John Calipari to Mark Pope was pretty seamless as the Wildcats were very competitive in a gauntlet of an SEC, and then they got to the 2nd weekend in the tourney for the first time since 2019. It was a complete rebuild with transfers and freshmen alike, so only bringing back 4 guys isn’t a huge concern since much of their roster was made up of seniors. Oweh being back is gigantic and pairing him with Jaland Lowe at PG gives UK a very exciting and proven scoring duo in the backcourt. Inside they are going to be extremely athletic and versatile, with guys like Quaintance, Williams and Dioubate transferring in to join Garrison and FR Moreno. That’s going to be a deep group that not only can help with the scoring load but should be very versatile defensively, and that’s not even including the Croatian Jelavic who could have an impact. Johnson and Aberdeen give them depth in the backcourt as well, so I have no doubt they have the top end talent to justify this ranking, but they also have the depth to withstand a long season. I don’t think they’ll be as good of a shooting team, but I expect them to continue to push the pace and with all of these athletes they should just be attacking downhill relentlessly. Pope proved in year 1 he is going to be able to capitalize on the resources here at Kentucky, which means we should expect them to continue to be at or near the top of the SEC and be a Final 4 threat year in and year out. This year will be no exception.
3.) Arkansas (#11)
Year 1 under Cal brought Arkansas right back to relevance, and while they weren’t at the top of the SEC he did finally get them rolling as the year went on, seeing them finish 8-5 in the league and get to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Rick Pitino and St. John’s. I think that positive momentum continues into this year, with 4 major contributors back, some international talent and most importantly those two 5-star FR guards who should come in and give them instant pop scoring the ball. They developed into a top-20 team defensively last year, which will need to continue for them to finish where I have them this year. My expectation if that does happen is that the FR guards give them a lift on the other end and all of a sudden you have a team that plays with physicality, the way they did last year, and can score at much higher level. They certainly lost guys like Thiero and Aidoo who helped them on D, but they played stretches without them and the young guys played well. I think we see a jump from Karter Knox and Billy Richmond who both emerged down the stretch and that, combined with the incoming talent, should vault the Razorbacks into contention in the SEC. Cal’s best teams at UK were consistently top-20 defensively, and while it fell off the last few years much of that was due to relying solely on FR that just couldn’t get it down quick enough. The mix of returning experience with some FR adding in where they fit to me is a much more solid approach and should drive them to taking a step forward in year 2.
4.) Alabama (#13)
Nate Oats continues to roll with the Tide as he’s navigated them to 5 straight tourneys, 4 of which they made it to the 2nd weekend, including last year’s Elite 8 run. Throw in a regular season title and 3 straight top-3 finishes overall in the SEC and it’s clear this is one of the best programs, not just in the SEC, but in the entire country right now. With all of that said, this might be his least talented team on paper that he’s had in a couple of years. While I still think they’re a top-15 team probably, the incoming FR are not elite and the transfers are more solid than great, and ultimately they don’t have that All-American potential player that we’ve come accustomed to seeing here under Oats. The backcourt of Philon/Holloway/Wrightsell will be fun to watch push the ball and fire away from 3, but they’re undersized and not the best defensively. I think Bethea could be a wildcard as he was a 5-star recruit to Miami last year and could give them more size at the guard spot, so if he can up his shooting numbers he could fit right in. They are also going to need transfer big man Williamson to be impactful as he should share the center load with returning Soph Sherrell who did show promise last year. Don’t get me wrong the talent is still here, but at the end of a close game who are you trusting with the ball in his hands to get it done? In the past it was guys like Mark Sears or Brandon Miller, but honestly Philon and Holloway have been pretty erratic so far in their careers. I’m worried about the defense regressing and same with their overall efficiency offensively. Small step back for Bama, but still a tourney team that is always going to be dangerous in March if they get hot from deep.
5.) Tennessee (#14)
The Final 4 continues to elude the Tennessee program under Rick Barnes, as they’ve now been to back-to-back Elite 8’s and 4 total Sweet 16’s over the last few years but haven’t been able to break through. This year might be a bit tougher, as this is the team with probably the most question marks for me coming into the season because nearly all of the production from last year’s team is gone. They are going to be relying heavily on transfer PG Ja’Kobi Gillespie and FR phenom Nate Ament. The latter is the guy who is likely going to have to shoulder the offensive load, as there really isn’t a ton of proven scoring and playmaking outside of Gillespie, who will need to be the Robin to Ament’s Batman. The next question is will Barnes be able to get all of these newcomers up to snuff on the defensive side of the ball, something we’ve come to expect from the Vols with him as the head man. They have been top-5 defensively each of the past 5 seasons, which is pretty remarkable, and really only Houston can come anywhere close to that kind of consistency on that end over that time span. The culture is there, but can it be preserved without the roster continuity that we’ve seen in the past? Even if it does and they’re back to being a top-5 team defensively, then we turn our attention back to the guard play and that’s the scary thing. Gillespie will run the show, but is LA Tech transfer Amaree Abram ready to step right into SEC play? What about the Israeli guard Burg? Or maybe it’s top-75 recruit Evans? I’ve used enough question marks to get my point across I believe. I trust Barnes enough to consider this Vols team a top-20 team going in, I mean most programs after the top-5 or so have questions, but it might be bumpy out of the gates as he searches for those answers. Either way, you’re going to at least want to tune in to see Ament who should be a top-5 pick and will heavily impact their ceiling this year.
6.) Auburn (#20)
Speaking of question marks, what on earth should we expect from this Auburn program this year now that only Tahaad Pettiford remains? That of course includes former HC Bruce Pearl who just a few days ago as of writing this retired and left the keys to the program to his son Steven. Almost an entirely new roster, a somewhat new coaching staff, at least at the top…what do we do with that? Well, I’m going to try and focus on the talent at hand, and it’s certainly there for this to be a top-25 team despite the turbulence felt in the fall. Pettiford is an All-American caliber guard now that he can run the show and he’ll be joined by Keyshawn Hall who scored at an elite level with UCF last year as a hybrid 3/4 man. Not only that, international big Jovic has promise as well, so there are options here for them offensively. Depth is going to be a concern though there’s no doubt about that, as they’re simply forced to rely on JUCO guys and FR to fill out their rotation. They may not need them to score double figures but the FR Williams-Adams and Magwood along with the DII/JUCO transfers are going to need to provide quality minutes there’s no way around it. So, what I’m saying is they’re top heavy, with at the very least a 1-2 combo in Pettiford and Hall that should ball out every night and get them into the upper half of the conference. In order to push further than that they need Murphy and Jovic to be solid contributors and some other guard to emerge to help Pettiford out. All of that is ignoring the fact their head coach just left the program. Expectations should still be high due to the talent, but asking Steven Pearl to have this much success might be asking too much. We’ll see how it plays out.
7.) Texas
Well the Rodney Terry experiment has come to its inevitable conclusion as he got worse YOY in each of his 3 full seasons after taking over for Chris Beard. In comes a proven vet in Sean Miller who has not only retained some holdovers from last year, a tough thing to do in today’s environment, but also brought in some very nice pieces to fit around them. The trio of Pope/Mark/Weaver give them stability in the backcourt, and you can see based on who was brought in Miller is comfortable with those guys as he focused mostly on the 3-5 positions. We know his play style is a fast paced game with a wide open offense, as we’ve seen it at both Arizona and Xavier. He brought in guys like Cam Heide who is athletic and can really shoot it, but also guys like Wilcher and Swain who prefer to get out and run and attack downhill from the wing spot. Inside the german transfer Duru should come right in and have a role at the 4 spot with mid-major transfers like Traore and Vokietaitis looking to play the 4/5 spot as well. It’s much more of a question mark what you’ll get from that group, and that’s the hesitation as rebounding and protecting the paint could be a major concern. I don’t doubt they’ll be able to score, but much like Miller’s prior stops at Xavier and Arizona, the defensive end will tell the story in terms of how much success they have. They seem like a borderline top-25 team that should make the tourney, but again, if they can’t defend or rebound they could fall short of that. I’m betting on Miller and the guards, but I’m not super confident.
8.) Mississippi St
It is indisputable that Chris Jans is a fantastic HC in college basketball, now getting the Mississippi St Bulldogs to 3 straight tourney’s after they made it just once the 13 seasons prior to his arrival. They happen to be 0-3 in the dance, but eventually they are going to break through in my opinion. They have one of the best scoring guards in the SEC back in Josh Hubbard, and while much of the production outside of him has parted ways, the incoming group is solid and should position them right back in the middle of this conference. Epps alongside Hubbard gives them a solid 1-2 punch in the backcourt, and guys like Achor, Walker and Ballard give them solid pieces up front as well. They also welcome in 3 top-100 recruits who will hopefully stick around and develop under Jans so he can try and sustain some cohesion going forward. I will be interested to see the style of play, as to start his tenure Jans had this program mucking games up, playing a physical brand of ball that produced top-10 defenses, they just struggled to score. It flipped by year 3 where they were a top-25 offense but barely top-50 on D. All 3 years ended about the same, but how they got there was much different, especially the pace as they went from 336th to 127th. Either way, I don’t see this roster competing with the top of the league, but they certainly could get back into the dance as a 8-10 seed and try and take another step forward by winning a tourney game.
9.) Ole Miss
I am a noted Chris Beard stan so I tend to have his team’s a bit higher than most in the preseason because I do believe he’s one of the best coaches in the country. It took him just to year 2 at Ole Miss to start doing things that hadn’t been done in 24 years in Oxford by getting the Rebs to the Sweet 16. Almost all of their production were Seniors though, so really only Malik Dia is back as a major contributor, so it will be tough to maintain that same level of success. The biggest question I had when looking at the roster was AJ Storr…was last year an aberration or is he really just cashing a check? Beard’s #1 priority has to be to get Storr to buy in and play hard, because if he does that he’s a fantastic player and could be their leading scorer and a main reason they get back to the dance this year. Around him guys like Scott, Johnson and Perry all come from P5 schools and are looking for expanded roles. They have promise I’ll say that, but this could easily fall short, especially if Storr is not a reliable double digit scorer and a complete no-show on D again. The frontcourt is full of guys Beard loves as they’re undersized but athletic, which helps with his high pressure defensive style as he’s historically played small ball 5’s so they can switch 1-5. He shifted back to that last year and transformed them from 141st on D to top-25. I expect them to defend well again, and if Storr buys in they could be a top-25 team, but I’m hesitant on that. There’s a chance he plays lazy D and Beard does exactly what Self did and barely plays him. Even if that happens I think they can make the tourney, that’s how much I respect Beard, but they’ll be scratching and clawing down the stretch to get there.
10.) Vandy
Mark Byington deserves a ton of credit for what he did with Vandy last year, bringing in almost an entirely new roster and taking that team to the tourney. He is forced to do that again basically, as he saw 8 guys hit the portal and in turn brought in 8 new faces via the portal. They do get 2 starters back with Nickel and McGlockton back as the starting frontcourt, but they’ll likely hope that Jalen Washington from UNC can be the starting 5 and actually give them some size inside after starting those 2 at just 6’7″ last year down the stretch at the 4/5 spots. The backcourt is entirely overhauled, and while the metric sites seem to like all that they added, it looks to me like a lot of inefficient scorers, relying on a guy like Frankie Collins who is now on his 4th team in 4 years, to run the show. There are some nice pieces here don’t get me wrong, with guys like James and Miles already proving they can produce at the P5 level. My concern with them is on the defensive side of the ball, and my mind is blown at what sites like KP and Miya have them ranked preseason on that end given how bad they were last year and how bad Byington teams have historically played on that end. I for one, do not expect them to transform into a top-25 defense like KP does, as Byington has never even had a top-70 team defensively. He wants to play fast and score, defense seems to be an after thought. They should rebound better, maybe defend the paint better with Washington, but I still don’t see it being the emphasis that it needs to be to get to that level. Because of that I think they’re a bubble team that will be right on the border of in or NIT, and while he proved his ability to build the roster last year and get them to play well offensively, it cannot be overstated how difficult it is to do that and get a team to be elite defensively. I don’t see that happening, unlike some computers.
11.) Georgia
Similar to Beard at Ole Miss this is just a bet on Mike White who I really think is building something at a school where most could care less because it’s so heavily a football school. They made the dance last year for the first time since 2015, and while they didn’t get their first win since 2002, you feel like that was a major step to just get there again. I like that he has kept a few of his recruits with guys like Cain, Cyril and James all coming back, and this group of transfers is actually pretty exciting. Catchings was a top-50 recruit with good size and can really shoot it, and the guards coming in to help Cain all have shown promise and have multiple years of eligibility aside from Bailey. Really what I trust from White is that his teams are going to play hard and play well defensively. I don’t know if the talent will mesh or what the ceiling is, but I do think the guys coming back can develop and take a step forward and I like the promise of the transfer guys. They have gone from 132–>58–>32 defensively over his 3 years, so I would expect that his standard and culture has been established. The question will be can they score enough with these uber-talented SEC teams to compete and find their way back into the dance. I’m not sure of that, but I do think it’s an underrated roster and White is an underrated coach who has done a good job here. Bubble team is my expectation, with the acknowledgement they may not be able to score well enough to be a tourney team.
12.) Mizzou
Have to give Dennis Gates his flowers here because heading into last year this program, and his reputation, were in total flux. Year 1 saw them make a surprise tourney run and win a game, and then the wheels fell of and they went 0-18 in the SEC in 2024. Remarkably, the administration stuck with Gates, as did a good portion of the team, and with some transfer help they quickly rebounded to make another tourney appearance last year. Once again, Gates is welcoming back a good portion of last year’s roster, with returning starters Mark Mitchell, Anthony Robinson and Trent Pierce all back. The bigger thing I’ve been watching is he’s retaining both FR and transfers in, so the guys are buying into what he’s selling here even with that disaster results wise in 2024. All of that said, they did lose some very important pieces in the backcourt, as Grill, Bates, Perkins and Warrick were all big time contributors and integral to their success. So, how are they backfilling? Well, they’re going to turn to transfers Jayden Stone and Sebastian Mack plus top-100 recruit Boateng who they’ll need to make a SO jump. Therein-lies the reason for them being this low in my mind, as they were a top-10 offense both years Gates got them to the tourney, and I’m not feeling that great about Mack and Stone, both guys who have struggled from 3. They have never defended well under Gates overall, but their 2 good seasons they were top-10 in steal %. That’s the goal here, playing fast and high pressure D that generates steals by gambling. Don’t succeed and you’re out of position and give up a bucket. In summary, I see regression on both ends. Maybe Stone and Mack deliver, maybe they defend the paint better and generate steals at the same rate, but that’s too much to overcome in my opinion to see them repeat last year’s success.
13.) Texas A&M
Texas A&M is now the latest victim of Buzz Williams’ desire to abandon programs he has built up, and they now have to turn to Bucky McMillan who has spent the last few years running wild at Samford in the SoCo. He is going to have the Aggies playing his run and gun style but there is no reason for me to believe this hodge podge of transfers under Bucky is going to play even a lick of defense. Yes, I’m willing to admit the talent level coming in here is actually good enough for them to compete in the SEC, with guys like Pop Isaacs, Mgbako and Griffin all proven guys at the P5 level. It just screams of an AAU pick-up style of play where they just push the pace, launch from deep and play zero defense. Bucky never had a top-100 defense at Samford and actually only cracked the top-200 once, which was his lone trip to the tourney in 2024. That team was 15th in the country at forcing TO’s, so if there’s a glimmer of hope here is that they adopt that havoc style of defense and these guys buy into that and can generate TO’s with a high pressure style of play. The issue he had at Samford was they took a lot of chances, gambled and got out of position, so their FG% allowed was abysmal. That’s what I expect from them this year, and while they should be able to score with anyone it’s not going to be enough in a league this tough from top to bottom.
14.) Oklahoma
Porter Moser finally had a breakthrough of sorts last year with the Sooners as he finally got them to the dance in year 4. Unfortunately for him almost that entire team is gone, headlined by Jeremiah Fears heading to the NBA early. It’s going to be tough sledding for him but there is a tiny glimmer of hope considering the top end talent that he got in the portal. All 4 of these transfers should start, with the 5th starter up in the air. That takes you to the guys beyond that top 4, which is a giant question mark with returning guys that haven’t proven production at this level, coming from mid-major schools, JUCO, Denmark and of course high school. At the end of the day, I think the transfers keep the ship afloat but it is impossible to predict what kind of help those guys are going to have around them, much less how they gel and play together. Individually they are very good college basketball players, but how they come together and how they’re supported is a complete unknown and why I am keeping them down here. They are certainly not without hope to get back to the tourney, which is the crazy thing about the SEC as there are now 14 teams who legitimately enter the season with hopes to get to the tourney. I don’t think the Sooners will be one of them, but if they’re fighting on the bubble come February I wouldn’t be surprised by any means.
15.) LSU
I don’t really know what’s going on with Matt McMahon at LSU and I’m not really sure anyone cares in the administration. He has 3 seasons under his belt and has underperformed in each of them, with his best finish 88th in Kenpom. In fact, he has finished >35 spots lower than their preseason ranking each of those 3 seasons, meaning the talent on the roster is greater than the results we are seeing. Doing less with more year after year is usually a cause for firing, but we march on with McMahon in Baton Rouge. We are essentially looking at a team with a compilation of mid-major talent, and while they’re proven at that level we’re talking about what is now the best conference in the sport. You’re not competing with Florida/Kentucky/Alabama with a bunch of mid-major guys. Can some guys rise up and contribute, even at a high level sometimes, yes. But when that’s most of your roster it’s just not going to work. He did get 3 top-100 recruits so I’ll give him credit there, but his ability to hold on to them as Sophomore’s in the past has been essentially 0. Again, every year he has wildly missed expectations and this year is the lowest starting point yet. Not great.
16.) South Carolina
It is starting to look like the 2024 trip to the NCAA tourney was more of a one-off for Lamont Paris than a sign of momentum here at S. Carolina. I do think he’s a good coach but he appears to not be getting the resources needed to compete in the SEC right now. Most of the talent is gone from last year’s team that won just 2 conference games, and maybe that includes some addition by subtraction if you’re trying to be positive, but it’s never a good sign when that many guys are fleeing the program. The bigger issue is what is coming in to replace it as there are 4 low rated recruits and 6 transfers that frankly are not moving the needle besides the return of Meechie Johnson. It’s pretty clear this is the least talented roster on paper and given Paris has 2 seasons under his belt in which he won just 5 combined SEC games, there’s precedent for the Gamecocks to finish last. Yes, 2024 happened, but I’m looking at that as an outlier at this point, especially given the gap in talent.
Coming off of back-to-back championships, last year was a trip back down to earth for Hurley and his UConn Huskies. It of course wasn’t a complete failure as they still made the dance and won a game as an 8 seed, but it was a reset as they tried to reload after losing nearly everyone from those 2 championship runs. The last remaining stalwart is Alex Karaban, who is back for his final season, and the young talent that Hurley has brought in is sticking around in large part, with guys like Ball, Stewart and Ross all back attempting to grow into larger roles. At the end of the day, we know this will be a well coached team and the transfer backcourt additions should improve what was a relative weak point last year with Mahaney disappointing and the group being the worst shooting team here since 2021. Depth was also an issue for them last year and boy did Hurley fix that as he has brought in a ton of talent, all of which just simply can’t play this year, but to have them able to compete for time and push each other in practice is a fantastic sign. It might be hard to hold on to them all, but to have amassed this much talent has to lead you to believe Hurley is going to find a group of 8-9 guys that can contend with anyone in the country given the proven commodities he has at his disposal. I have no idea how the rotation will sort out, aside from Ball and Karaban, but it’s an embarrassment of riches for a HC that has built enough trust to believe this is going to be one of the best teams in the country, not just the Big East.
2.) St. John’s (#6)
I have immense respect for Rick Pitino and what he’s doing with St. John’s is just cementing his legacy as one of the all-time coaches in college basketball. Last year ended on a bit of a sour note though, losing in the 2nd round amidst a benching of star player RJ Luis. Outside of that, bringing St. John’s back to life and winning the Big East in year 2 is an awesome accomplishment and by the looks of it they’ll be right back in contention this year. Granted, there are a few question marks given all the talent that is leaving the program, but this transfer class is about as good as it gets across the country. You have two guys coming in with Hopkins and Mitchell who can play the 4 spot next to Ejiofor who is back to dominate the paint so the froncourt will be a strength. Their big weakness last year was scoring the ball and it’s inarguable that the guards Jackson, Sellers, Sanon and Darling are a better group of guards scoring the ball than they had last year. They may take a step back defensively from what they were last year but I fully expect a top-50 offense this year which should make up for a small step back on the other end. Expect The Garden to be rocking all year long once again and expect a better finish to the year from St. John’s who should absolutely be a national contender.
3.) Creighton (#18)
Greg McDermott continues to churn out successful season after successful season here at Creighton, and while it hasn’t produced much hardware they are still one of the perennial contenders in the conference and have made the dance 5 straight years, winning at least 1 game in each and reaching the 2nd weekend 3 of those trips. No Final 4’s or national titles, but you can’t talk about college basketball without at least considering what Creighton is doing in the Big East. Now, much of last year’s team is out, but there are several young pieces back looking to step into a larger role and the transfer class is very solid. I love the duo coming over from Iowa as both Dix and Freeman are fantastic fits in McDermott’s fast paced system. The returning bigs playing around Freeman will give them a very solid front court, the big question is going to be at the 2-3 spots. They have several options there, with mid major transfers Graves and Harper being good experienced options but the FR Greer and young transfer Swartz, a top-60 recruit to Miami last year, should both contend for minutes there as well. If a couple of those guys really hit and can contribute then I think Creighton can join UConn and St. John’s in the top tier of this conference, but for now I’ll keep them a step behind just due to the question marks in that backcourt. Nevertheless, I expect it to be 6 straight trips to the dance, with the outside chance that duo of Dix and Freeman have enough around them to be Final 4 threats.
4.) Marquette
There are very few programs across the country that are as tight of a ship as this Marquette program under Shaka Smart. This is now 2 years in a row that he hasn’t taken in a transfer, and with just one player exiting via the portal they win the roster continuity award by a mile. Of course, you have to be concerned about how heavily they leaned on dynamic playmakers like Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones who are now gone with no obvious guys filling those voids. That’s where the lack of using the transfer portal could come back to bite them, but one thing we know for sure is they are going to be a nightmare defensively. They were top-20 in the country each of the last 2 seasons at forcing TO’s, their big issue last year was allowing offensive rebounds. That’s an even bigger concern than the scoring deal because they added nothing to change that on the interior. That’s why I have them outside of my top-25 to start the year, and while I respect what Shaka is doing by bringing in FR, developing them and ultimately rewarding their loyalty by giving them the shot to grow into starting roles, it makes it difficult to fill holes when they arise. They desperately need Royce Parham to make a leap forward and a guy like Josh Clark who redshirted could be important as a 7-footer. At the end of the day I respect Shaka and trust in their defense enough to have them up here, but how they score and control the glass, two major components of the game, will determine just how good they can be. It’s not going to be his best team here, but I expect a 5th straight tourney appearance in year 5 for Shaka who has experienced much more success here than at Texas.
5.) Providence
I’m banking on last year being an aberration as I was uber impressed with Kim English in year 1 with the Friars. Last year just was a disaster ultimately with injury after injury to major contributors. We’ll hope they have much better injury luck and taking a look at the transfer talent that is coming in they should have a lot to work with, especially with Jason Edwards coming in and leading the show. I like Sellers and Floyd next to him and they have some strong frontcourt additions in Powell and Hargrove as well. Overall, I think if all this talent clicks and they get back to defending like they were in year 1 under English they have an outside shot at a tourney berth. They certainly aren’t going to be world beaters, but if they’re hitting their ceiling it won’t be fun traveling to Providence, Rhode Island in that environment. Look for guys like Mela and Erhunmwunse to be important development pieces as well, as they started shining late in expanded roles after all the injuries. This would be my dark horse to be a fun team that gets in as like a 10 seed. Not sure if that’s popular sentiment but there’s a surprising amount of talent here and English can coach. Watch out for the Friars is all I’m saying.
6.) Georgetown
Ed Cooley has had a bit of a tough time building back this Georgetown program, but last year was a major step in the right direction as they went from just 2 conference wins in year 1 all the way up to 8 a year ago. Now, they actually started out the year 12-2 before falling apart, but much of that was due to injuries to most of their top guys including NBA draft pick Thomas Sorber. The signs were good enough for me to believe Cooley has this train moving in the right direction, especially since he was able to hold on to some young talent that he brought in as his first true FR class. On top of that the transfers coming in I also like as a mix of veterans and promising young guys that should make immediate impacts. Mack/Lewis/Love make for a solid backcourt, with young pieces around them like DHS/Abraham/Williams looking for a bigger role than they previously had. The frontcourt could be the issue though, with just Iwuchukwu and the 3 returning guys from last year’s FR class (2 redshirts), I kind of question what that will look like. I do have them finishing better than last year, but I’m not sure if it will be good enough or not to get into the dance. They will need those transfer guards to really step up and also to continue their momentum defensively they showed last season (321st–>58th YOY). If they can get stops and this backcourt scores the way I think they can they should be fighting on the bubble all the way to the end. That’s the ceiling, but certainly with this many question marks it could be worse..
7.) Xavier
Well we have a 2nd Pitino entering the Big East as son Richard joins his dad in this conference that is fighting to remain in the power conference conversation without football. While I am excited about the potential here with Pitino and Xavier, I’m not convinced this rag tag group of mid-major transfers is going to get them humming in year 1. I mean, just look at the stark difference in roster makeup between UConn/St. John’s and this Xavier roster. I’m not trying to belittle the talent of these guys of course, but there are levels to this thing, and frankly I’m not buying stock in Xavier to be nationally relevant beyond the matchups between father and son that will inevitably capture people’s attention. I have no idea the resources that Xavier does or doesn’t have, but in this era that does matter and if they can’t pay to acquire the necessary talent Pitino might just use this as a launching pad to a job where he can. Now, that doesn’t preclude you from being competitive in the Big East and finding a way into the dance, but long term I wonder if he can build them to the point that UConn/St. John’s are so he can contend nationally. Also, let’s not totally conflate Richard’s history with his father’s, as Richard was the HC at Minnesota for 8 years and only made the dance twice. He got it going the last couple years at New Mexico but he has much to prove as a HC still. To say the least, I have reservations, both about this year’s roster and the future of this pairing of Xavier/Pitino. We’ll see how it plays out.
8.) Villanova
No program in the country has been more sad than the post-Jay Wright Villanova Wildcats over the past couple of years. Kyle Neptune was predictably unable to continue the success of Wright, taking a program that had made the tourney 9 straight years, including 2 national titles, through 3 straight seasons of missing the dance altogether. In comes Kevin Willard, who surprisingly left a Big Ten job to come back to the Big East to try and turn this ship around. He is going to have his work cut out for him in year 1 as he tries to completely rebuild this roster, with just 2 guys returning from a year ago. That means 8 transfers and 3 FR, with most of the proven production coming from the mid-major ranks. Devin Askew is probably the most proven commodity, a UK recruit way back in 2020, he should lead the show. Frankly though, beyond him it’s a bunch of question marks in terms of production that you can absolutely count on. That is why they are so low, and while it would be wild to think Villanova is going to remain outside of relevancy for a 4th year in a row, that is the state you can quickly find yourself in when you make the wrong hire. Neptune was that, and Willard is left to clean up the mess, we’ll see how much hay he can make in year 1.
9.) Butler
As an Indiana native seeing this Butler program struggling like this is a sad sight, but they really don’t have much to work with in this current era of college sports, so they’ll continue to hope that the wily vet Thad Matta can get some momentum going for this program that hasn’t been dancing since 2018. From the looks of it they were able to take one big swing in the transfer portal getting Jalen Jackson to run the show, and they’re going to need him to shoulder a big load offensively. They have some nice pieces to play around him with Butler and Ajayi coming in, and Bizjack returning as a catch and shoot option. In terms of playmaking though it’s going to all be on Jackson. This is probably Matta’s best FR class so that’s good news, but his track record of holding on to the FR he’s brought in is not great, as evidenced by the 5 guys transferring out this cycle. Much of that could be due to the money available at other schools, and that’s just the issue non-football schools are going to face. Short of a mega rich donor they’re left with only what the Big East can provide sans-football. Unfortunate, but Matta is going to have to coach his tail off to get this group back to the dance.
10.) DePaul
Alright we’re right where we want to be if you’re Chris Holtmann rebuilding DePaul. Sounds weird to say after just 4 Big East wins, but considering DePaul had won only 3 such games over the prior 2 seasons combined that is a major step forward. Now, after bringing in an entirely new roster last year you have 4 guys back, 3 of them being core rotation pieces. That’s progress, some momentum you might even say. You’ll of course have noticed I still have them way down at 10th in the league, but we’re starting from literal scratch here so this should not be offending anyone. I love that the backcourt is back with Gunn and Blocker, and Benson should slot right back in to contribute inside as well. What we’re looking at here are the additions of Banks and Maclin for scoring help as well as a wild card with Khaman Maker. He’s a 7’1″ C that was a pretty good recruit, if he can come in and anchor your defense as a rim protector and rebounder, all of a sudden we may be cooking with gas partner. I’m not trying to insinuate DePaul is going to be a contender, but who is to say we can’t double that win total and get up to 8 Big East wins? Do that and we slot up a couple of spots and have some real momentum. These are the programs I love to follow because you have a real pro who has coached at a high level trying to raise a dead program. That’s what this is all about, and while I doubt there’s a large contingency of DePaul hoops fans out there reading season previews…if you’re here just know, I’m rooting for you, and I see the light at the end of the tunnel.
11.) Seton Hall
It looked like Shaheen Holloway was going to be able to navigate the Big East waters well after year 2 where he had Seton Hall just on the outside of a tourney berth with positive momentum from year 1. That all came crashing down last year in what was nothing but a disaster of a season that culminated in just 2 Big East wins and finishing below DePaul. It’s one of those seasons you have to flush, and lucky for Holloway in this era you can just cycle everyone out and bring in an entire new team with relative ease. The unfortunate part is most of these guys are either productive mid-major talents or unheralded guys transferring down from power 4 conference teams where they didn’t play much and/or were wildly inefficient. That could be a good thing if they’re fighting to break through, but it could also be they didn’t earn that PT for a reason other than just simply a better guy was in front of them. None of those guys were these promising recruits that just need a role to shine in my opinion, so I genuinely think we’re looking at the worst team in the Big East here yet again with Seton Hall, in what could be Holloway’s final season here if that’s the case. Maybe he gets them to be an elite defensive team, as that’s his calling card, but that’s asking a lot for a team of complete strangers to come together and be connected on D. I don’t see it happening to say the least, so for Seton Hall I expect another tumultuous season that likely ends in a coaching search come spring.
The tournament is finally here so we of course need to check to see where all of these teams sit as we enter the tourney. As I’ve been saying all year, we have 4 dominant teams and it played out as all 4 of them earned a 1 seed as Florida came on strong to end the season and claim the final 1 seed. Everyone loves to proclaim that it’s never as chalk as people think it’s going to be, but if there’s ever a year we see the 1 seeds dominate this would have to be the year. We have only had 4 teams since 2000 enter the tourney with a net Kenpom rating as high as all of our 4 1 seeds have this year. And wouldn’t you know they all made at least the Final 4 with 3 of them getting to the title game. Obviously, anything can happen as always, but you can already bet I will have at least 3 of these teams in my Final 4, with Houston the one I’m concerned about as of writing this due to the J’Wan Roberts injury. If he’s healthy full steam ahead for our all 1 seed Final 4, but if he’s out I would start to look beyond Houston at Tennessee and a sleeper pick being Clemson as the 5 seed in that region. Also, long time readers, how bout that finish to the season for Auburn? Not so crazy now am I…anywho, let’s get it.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Our same trio of elite teams that we’ve been tracking all year long. I would at minimum have these teams in the Elite 8, but watch out for Houston as they have a Strong Enough team Gonzaga potentially in round 2 with J’Wan Roberts last seen in a boot. Also, Clemson as Solid is the 5 that they could see in the Sweet 16 so the path won’t be easy.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Still have Auburn just a step off the pace but as you can see in the numbers teams here are still very successful in March, especially the first weekend. I will have Auburn in my Final 4, but losing to Florida in a SEC clash.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Tennessee is the team I’m really watching here as they’re borderline Great and looked awesome in the SEC tourney. They are Houston light, with a bit more difficulty scoring, but we could have an opening for them if Houston goes down early, so I’m thinking Tennessee to the Final 4. Iowa St is dealing with injuries so tread lightly there and I already mentioned I’m watching Clemson as a dark horse Elite 8 team.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
Alabama has a good draw with 0 other teams in trustworthy categories until the Elite 8 potential matchup with Duke. If they get knocked off before that I’m looking at Wisconsin who is just outside the Solid group. Texas Tech and Michigan St look like strong Elite 8 picks as well, as Tech has Grinder St. John’s and Sparty gets a beat up Iowa St potentially as the biggest test. Maryland has to get through Florida so I’m stopping them at the Sweet 16 but confident in them and same with A&M.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
Not picking these teams to get past the first weekend, end of story. Don’t play D you don’t win in March.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
St. John’s might be an outlier here because they’re so good on defense but I’m not taking them beyond the Sweet 16 for sure. St. Mary’s night night.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
Not much faith in any of these teams except maybe Arizona/Wisconsin who have some favorable matchups. No Final 4 for sure, probably not past Sweet 16 at best.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
No chance beyond the first weekend for these teams either. Can’t do it won’t do it.
Updated 3/16 – Date following team is date of last edit.
It’s finally Selection Sunday and man what a conversation we have around the final few spots. We are essentially looking at 2 spots available with 5 teams fighting for them. You have IU-Texas-UNC-Xavier-Boise St all in the fight for the final 2 spots in Dayton, with teams like San Diego St, Utah St and Vandy being tossed around for the other 2 but all pretty solidly in the field either way. I give my reasoning for where I think each team winds up, but let me tell you I could see any combination of those 5 being selected for those final 2 spots, as the committee can be difficult to project, especially when it’s this close. I’m leaning IU/Texas due to their volume of Q1 wins and Q1 win %, but Boise would be right there if those are the top-2 category considerations. That can be very shaken up if Memphis and/or VCU loses today though, as that would make the American a 2-bid league and then throw VCU into the mix for the last spot. So, if you’re here as a fan as one of those 5 teams you have to root for Memphis and VCU today.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 56 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. Check out my current bracket projection here.
The lane violation hear round the college hoops world…unbelievable ending to last night’s Duke/UNC game as the Tar Heels stormed back from down 24 to have a FT to tie the game in the dying moments and had it waived off on a lane violation. That loss likely ended their at-large hopes, although there is still a contingent out there who believe they have a chance. I find it hard to believe a team with a 1-12 record in Q1 is going to be given an at-large, it would certainly be unprecedented. The metrics are really their only argument, as they have just 1 win against the projected field. I have IU/Texas ahead of them due to that number, you can’t be 1-11 against the field and beat out teams who have 4+ wins against the field. It would be a crime against humanity to see UNC in the dance at this point, especially with the Mountain West stealing a bid and shrinking things up. (3/15)
Wake is dead after their loss to UNC today. They were in a great spot until they lost a trio of games to Florida St/NC State/Virginia, all outside of Q1 down the stretch. This was just the final nail in the coffin for a team who probably had the talent to be a tourney team but just fell apart in February/March. (3/13)
Well the doomsday scenario for the Hoosiers is playing out as all the teams around them seem to be cashing in on their opportunities and they lost to Oregon. That loss leaves them just 4-13 in Q1, and while they are perfect outside of Q1 they are losing the Q1 win % argument, losing the metrics argument and their best non-con win was Providence (99th). Their argument is essentially, hey remember when we beat Michigan St and Purdue? While it doesn’t sound like a whole lot it actually might be enough this year, with a teams like Xavier/UNC having just 1 Q1 win. In my opinion, they are ahead of UNC due to the 4 Q1 wins and 0 losses outside of Q1, better than the Tar Heels, and ahead of Xavier who has just the 1 Q1 win also. Those 3 are fighting over that last spot or 2, so it may come down to committee preference. Their main issue, and what I would point to if they don’t get in, are the metrics, as they average about 50th in predictive metrics, behind UNC/Xavier/Texas. I still would favor the Hoosiers and their 4 Q1 wins, but it is insanely close and all could be shaken up if Memphis and/or VCU lose today. (3/16)
With the loss yesterday to Iowa the Buckeye’s are likely dead when it comes to an at-large bid. To The Crown they go, although there may still be some people who argue they should be in. I won’t be one of them though, as if you can’t beat a bad Iowa team when your life is on the line I just don’t think you belong in the dance. They do have some really good wins on the resumé but the losses are just too much to make up for, I mean they’re just 3-4 in Q2, is that really better than a UNC that’s 7-0? I do get the Q1 wins are the golden measurement, but at some point you can’t play to the level of your competition so much that you are losing to 5 teams not projected in the tourney.(3/13)
Baylor should be pretty safe unless absolute pandemonium breaks out and the committee sees things a little differently than me. Ultimately I think the strong metrics, strong SOS and 5 Q1 wins will keep them well within the field, the loss to Texas Tech dropped them to 1-11 in Q1(A) games. Their biggest plus is they are 17-3 outside of the elite games, including those 4 Q1 games that fall just outside, so they still have some big wins and do have 4 against the projected field so enough to feel like they will get in and avoid Dayton. (3/15)
W. Virginia: 19-13 (10-10) — Q1: (6-9) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 19 (59) Q1(A): (4-7) NET (51)
While I don’t think the Mountaineers will miss the tourney, they did make things a lot more interesting with their loss to Colorado yesterday. The major separation between them and teams like Indiana/San Diego St is they have 4 wins over top-20 teams, with 3 of those being away from home. That is likely going to be enough to carry them through, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a little closer than we think as the predictive metrics are not great and neither are the result based. It’s really just those massive wins keeping them afloat. They are sitting on the 10 line pretty firmly, and there doesn’t look to be as much bid stealing as last year, so I think with their 6 Q1 wins they should feel pretty safe right now to be in and avoiding Dayton. (3/15)
Xavier battled hard, and at times looked like they’d beat Marquette, but ultimately couldn’t bring it home in the closing stages. Eye test tells me they deserve to be in, but that’s not how this thing works. They are just 1-9 in Q1, but do have some solid Q2 wins over tourney teams UConn/Creighton. Right now I have them the first team out, with Texas/IU being the last 2 in, but honestly I could see 100 people splitting evenly if polled on those 3 teams. It’s razor thin, so it’ll be a nervy couple of days as to have a chance you have to have all the conference tourney’s be won by teams projected in right now. With the Mountain West taking up another bid, it looks even more dire for the Musketeers, as it’s tough to argue them over Texas/IU in my opinion given the lack of big time wins. We’ll see if the committee agrees, or if the American conference can make it even more of a longshot with a Memphis upset. (3/15)
Georgia dropped their chance to make this easy as they lost to Oklahoma last night. That leaves them just 9-12 in Q1/2 as they likely drift back close to the Dayton group. They have just the 4 Q1 wins with the wins over Florida, Kentucky and St. John’s carrying them right now. I think that group of wins will ultimately be enough, and I have them on the 10 line with a possible 9 seed out there depending where you look. I don’t think there’s enough chaos that can happen at this point to bounce them but I don’t want to assume I have them exactly where the committee does, so we’re holding on tight but with a fair amount of confidence. (3/15)
Oklahoma lost a tough one to Kentucky to end their SEC tourney but they did more than enough to secure their bid in my opinion. I don’t see how a team with 7 Q1 wins and as clean of a record outside of Q1 can miss the dance this year. There are just too many teams with worse resumé’s behind them. I actually have them above Georgia due to the volume of top wins but many folks have it swapped, so who knows specifically where they’d fall but I doubt it will be worse than a 10 seed, with a 9 very possible. Again, I’d like to lock but with how screwy the committee can get we’re going to hold off until we see it on Sunday. (3/14)
Arkansas lost to Ole Miss in dramatic fashion today, but thanks to losses by San Diego St/Xavier/Indiana they are solidly in at this point. I don’t think anyone out there has them out of the field, so it would take some major chaos to unfold with bid stealing for them not to get in at this point as they are most likely in the Last 4 Byes territory. Good for Cal and good for this team turning things around and grinding their way in. Things have gotten a little more testy with the Mountain West shakeup but I still have them ahead of the Dayton group, on the 10 seed line. I wouldn’t expect enough chaos to ensue to leave them out, but they’re below Oklahoma and Georgia per me, so it’s a little more nervy as we get through the homestretch.(3/15)
Well, the Commodores have made this interesting as we enter the homestretch, as the loss to Texas dropped them to just 9-12 in Q1/2, keeping them in the bubble conversations. I warned about their horrific non-con schedule that provided them with 0 notable wins being a problem, and I think now they’re being compared to these bubble teams it has caused them to drop quite a bit as they’ve lost 3 straight. Oklahoma and Arkansas simply have better resumé’s right now, and I’m not sure how many people are taking notice of that. That puts them up against the MW teams like Utah St/San Diego St fighting for the last bye to escape Dayton. Right now the big time wins over 5 projected tourney teams are keeping them in the bye territory, but they’re the last one right now with potential bid stealing to come from the American. I think they’re comfy but it wouldn’t shock me to see the committee put them in Dayton. (3/15)
Well, Texas did enough to at least make this a very interesting conversation, even after a loss to Tennessee yesterday. Personally, I think the team with 7 Q1 wins is going to get the nod over the teams with just 1, especially given how many chances Xavier/UNC had. Those are the 3 battling it out right now in my opinion, although some have Indiana out of the field as well, so maybe call it a 4 horse race for the final 2 spots. Give me the teams who have proven they can beat tourney caliber teams more than just a one off. I get the Q2 record argument, but in my opinion the committee has overlooked bad losses in favor of big time wins in the past and I think they do so again with Texas/Indiana getting in. Of course that could change if the bubble shrinks even more Sunday so watch Memphis closely. (3/15)
Utah St. is now in a precarious position, although I do think they’ve done enough to be worthy of being in the field. Their loss to Colorado St late last night shrunk the bubble by a spot as either the Rams or Boise St are going to earn a bid they likely wouldn’t have gotten on their own. The Aggies are clinging to just 2 Q1 wins @ St. Mary’s/San Diego St. Those also happen to be their only wins against the field, and with 3 Q2 losses I’m surprised so many have them in a bye position. That group of wins is not strong, and while the record is inflated it’s tough to argue them over the SEC/Big 12 teams I have ahead of them right now. I think they’re in Dayton pretty firmly, and probably still ahead of IU/Texas but my money would be on either of those 2 in that First 4 game that’s for sure. (3/15)
San Diego St: 20-9 (14-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 63 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (52)
The Aztecs just couldn’t make this one easy as the loss today to Boise St has likely destined them for Dayton. They will stay in the field on the back of a strong non-con showing, with wins over Creighton/Houston, but that last loss hurt a ton. They are 8-8 in Q1/2 with strong SOS numbers, so they’re in to me pretty easily as the top team in Dayton, as it would take 4 bid stealers to knock them out if I’m right. So far there’s only been 1, but I still have them in Dayton pretty safely, although you start getting into the metric arguments as they would be right there with IU as the worst predictives in the field if they make it. Xavier/UNC for example have 10+ average better, but ultimately I think the who you beat and where you beat them argument easily goes to the Aztecs so they should get in, but I’ve been wrong before. (3/15)
Boise lost in the title game which leaves them on the outside looking in to me. They do have a strong case to make, and maybe a stronger one than people would think with those wins over Clemson/St. Mary’s. The problem you see are the really bad losses, especially that Q4 loss but having 4 losses outside of Q1 is a clear negative these other teams don’t have. UNC has just 1, Xavier has 2 and IU has 0. They are right there don’t get me wrong, but ultimately I think the bad losses combined with the low volume of big time wins will leave them just on the outside. Also, we typically see metrics some into play when it’s this close, and among the group fighting for a spot Boise is the worst averaging a 50th ranking in predictive metrics. (3/16)
VCU has made it to the A-10 title game, which has made it very interesting if they were to lose. I would say they would be out and I’ll make my case for why, but there is a contingent out there who would have them in and make the A-10 a bid stealer. Now, let’s assume they lose today, that would make them 5-5 in Q2 and still leave them with just 1 win over a tourney team, Colorado St which has aged a little better with their late season run. Their entire argument would be metrics, which do look favorable with their 3 metric average being 30.66. We would be comparing them to IU/Texas/UNC/Xavier depending on who the committee has given the last 2 spots. All of those teams have at least 1 better win than VCU can offer up, with UNC having the worst case on wins. Texas, for example has beaten 7 tourney teams, with IU having just 2 but also 0 losses outside of Q1 to VCU’s 6 in this scenario. To me, if all you have over a team is predictive metrics, the committee is not going to put you in. If it’s razor thin the metrics can tip the scale, but it’s not close to me among that group fighting for the last spot, so I think a loss to George Mason today for VCU will leave them out of the field. (3/16)
UC Irvine losing in the Big West title game effectively means the two bid Big West dream is dead, as UC San Diego had a much better case than Irvine can offer up. They basically have 1 really solid win, @ UCSD. Their next best win is @ Northern Iowa, so essentially their entire case would be eye test, and you’d at least like to have predictive metrics on your side when you make that argument right? Well their average of the 3 metrics the committee will see is 80.33. There is just no way to rationalize them getting in at this point. (3/16)
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. The domination at the top of the sport continues, and if you are a long time reader you know I’ve pointed out that we have 4 teams that have separated themselves. Duke/Houston/Auburn/Florida are all standing out and should be the only teams discussed as “title favorites”. There are of course other good teams that could win it, but anyone outside of those 4 would be a big surprise, and as unpredictable as the tourney is viewed the winner has been one of the top-6 teams (Tennessee/Bama are 5-6) on Kenpom for 9 straight years and overall 17 of the last 19 years. Yes there are upsets, yes there will always be chaos, but at the end of the day it’s almost always one of the handful of great teams each year that cuts down the nets. So, we have that group and the rest of this is to figure out who we should trust to meet them later on in the tourney and give them a fight.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Duke, Houston and Florida remain Elite and look like the teams to beat in college basketball, along with Auburn who is the best offense in the country and right on the doorstep now defensively. As I said from the get go, we have 4 outstanding teams in the sport this year.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn is back to where they probably should be given how dominant they’ve been, and while they haven’t always shown up defensively they’ve done enough to clearly be the #1 overall seed and are a very trustworthy pick in March right now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Tennessee has finally pushed out of strong enough and into solid, although that’s not a huge needle mover it is nice to see them improving offensively after some big games from Chaz Lanier. The other 3 are mainstays around here and are still firmly a part of the 2nd tier of contenders behind the big 4.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
As expected we lost a couple of teams here after last week with both Purdue and Mizzou dropping off, but surprisingly we added Saint Mary’s who continues to dominate defensively out on the West Coast. Teams like Bama/Wisconsin/Gonzaga have been living here for a long time, and Texas Tech continues to flirt with both Solid and Wannabe as they have at times been great on either end and struggled on either end.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
Kentucky finally has some company in the Matador group again as Mizzou jumps up here after giving up 92 to a bad offensive team in Arkansas. It should also be noted that UK has improved from near 90th defensively to almost cracking the top-60. That is a significant improvement and for a team that can score so well finding a way to defend even at an average level would make them dangerous.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
Same group as last week here as Kansas fell further into Grinder territory with A&M barely sliding in. St. John’s is a common Final 4 pick I’m starting to hear, but around here we will be avoiding taking them into the 2nd weekend much less all the way to San Antonio. Although it should be noted Pitino has lead bad offenses on deep runs before, making up part of that 1.6% and 4.9%.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
Michigan fell way down offensively since we last met, but the team I want to highlight the most is Clemson as they are on the doorstep of Solid if they can just play some better D as we close out the regular season. They’ve proven with their win over Duke they can compete with the best, just have to find more consistency on D as we end the year.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We have teams here who are going in opposite directions, with Louisville still charging forward, nearing the Solid archetype at this point. Then there’s Marquette, who has fallen all the way from “Great” to “Vanilla”, and while they still are in the top-30 they’re barely holding on to relevancy. We also welcome VCU who is dominating the A-10 and finds themselves in the top-30 for the first time this year.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. It’s pretty evident by the data as well as just watching the games that we have 4 teams that have separated themselves at this point. Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn very clearly standout, and the domination at the top of the sport is something we haven’t seen in some time. You have to go all the way back to the 2015 season, in my opinion, to see this level of top heavy play in college basketball. That year we had undefeated Kentucky (“Elite”) that lost in the Final 4 to Wisconsin, who was very similar to Auburn as the #1 offense in the country and flirting around top-15 defensively. You also had Duke who won it all that year and then Arizona/Villanova (“Great”) as dominant teams with an overall efficiency north of 33. Arizona lost to Wisconsin in the Elite 8 and then Nova bounced out early in round 2 in the big upset that year. That was basically the only thing that didn’t go according to plan, with 3 of the 5 dominant teams getting to the Final 4. I am starting to expect a similar type of tourney, with now those 4 elite teams rating higher than everyone last year but UConn. Every year people say there’s more and more parity, the tourney is less and less predictable, and maybe beyond those top 4 it will be this year, but it’s just a fact we haven’t seen this level of efficiency and domination from a group of teams like we have this year since 2015. Obviously there are a couple of weeks left to play until the dance, but at this point you’d be foolish to pick a national champion that isn’t 1 of those 4 teams. Also, in reference to what I talked about last week, we lost a couple of teams from the trustworthy categories already so it’s already leveling out at 15 teams.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Duke, Houston and Florida remain Elite and look like the teams to beat in college basketball, along with Auburn who is the best offense in the country and right on the doorstep now defensively. As I said from the get go, we have 4 outstanding teams in the sport this year.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn is back to where they probably should be given how dominant they’ve been, and while they haven’t always shown up defensively they’ve done enough to clearly be the #1 overall seed and are a very trustworthy pick in March right now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Auburn drops to solid once again, as they’ve oscillated up and down the ranks from Elite all the way down to Solid. Defensively they are just not consistent enough to join that group, but they have a huge chance @ Alabama this weekend to improve on that and get a big win. The rest of this group are similar names, with Arizona and Maryland still of note as they are hot and improving.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
Alabama, Mizzou and Purdue are all barely clinging to their inclusion here, with Bama sliding consistently thanks to their inability to get stops. Purdue has gone from near solid ranking to almost falling to Wannabe, but Mizzou has clawed their way here for the first time, so they are going in the opposite direction. Gonzaga/Wisconsin/Tennessee are the stalwarts here, with Tennessee being the team I’d be most confident in.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
We’re down to just the Wildcats, who have fallen from grace after picking up massive wins earlier in the season. Teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Purdue and Gonzaga have all found themselves here at some point but have made improvements defensively lately, but they’re certainly capable of finishing here if they slip up down the stretch.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
We have added to the party here with some more bad offenses drifting down to the Grinder archetype. St. John’s of course is still here, but we’ve added A&M and Kansas, who have both been very near to here for a while but have finally crossed over into dangerous territory. This often happens as the conference season moves forward, as weaknesses are attacked. I would expect at least A&M to remain here, with Kansas having a chance to bounce back with all the talent they have.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We have teams here who are going in opposite directions, with Louisville still charging forward, nearing the Solid archetype at this point. Then there’s Marquette, who has fallen all the way from “Great” to “Vanilla”, and while they still are in the top-30 they’re barely holding on to relevancy.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. A quick aside before we dive in…we have to once again address Auburn, who continues to look weaker here than any other place you’d look, so many might have questions. Right now they are the clear 4th most trustworthy team, so not bad at all, but most college hoops fans would have them as their favorite to win it all. So why are they 4th and why am I comfortable with that? They haven’t defended consistently, and the main discovery of this entire exercise is being balanced is the key to March success. Interestingly, they have played the 3 teams ahead of them already this year, going just 1-2. They beat Houston (by 5) and lost to Duke and Florida. That’s a pretty good marker right there, and you can see in all 3 of those games they gave up well over 1 point per possession. They are obviously an elite offensive team, but it is clear what the weakness is and it is more of a weakness than those other 3 teams have. It will be interesting to see how they defend Alabama on Saturday night, as they are the 2nd best offensive team. A good performance defensively could see Auburn climb up into a better spot, but another performance like the one against Florida and people may stop questioning why they are just 4th here. Also important to note that in other year’s there might only be 1 other team in the conversation with Auburn, but this year offers up more dominant teams at the top than we’ve seen in several years, so this should not discredit how good Auburn is as much as it highlights how great Duke/Florida/Houston have been.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Houston and Duke remain the stalwarts in the Elite group, as they continue to play extremely efficient on both ends of the floor. However, we also have a new addition to this group in Florida, fresh off of their upset win @ Auburn they join these 2 at the top of the sport.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn has fallen again and we now have zero teams in the great category, so down to 3 teams in Elite/Great but all qualifying as Elite now as Florida jumps up, for now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Auburn drops to solid once again, as they’ve oscillated up and down the ranks from Elite all the way down to Solid. Defensively they are just not consistent enough to join that group, but they have a huge chance @ Alabama this weekend to improve on that and get a big win. The rest of this group are similar names, with Arizona and Maryland still of note as they are hot and improving.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
We’re down to just the Wildcats, who have fallen from grace after picking up massive wins earlier in the season. Teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Purdue and Gonzaga have all found themselves here at some point but have made improvements defensively lately, but they’re certainly capable of finishing here if they slip up down the stretch.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
The Johnnies remain our lone grinder, but UCLA is creeping.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
5-STAR Bracketology 