The defending champs have reloaded around a strong group of returners from last year’s group, led again by Todd Golden who has proven he was the exact right hire, bringing the Gators back to their championship caliber they had under Billy Donovan nearly 20 years ago. This year’s team will feature many familiar faces, especially in the froncourt as the entire 4 man rotation at the 4/5 spots are back. The backcourt is an entirely different situation though, as all 3 starters are gone and Aberdeen, the first guy off the bench, is also gone. That turns our attention to the portal, as Golden brought in 3 dynamite guards to replace what was lost, with Boogie Fland, Xaivian Lee and AJ Brown all poised to play major roles in this backcourt rotation. Freshmen CJ Ingram and Alex Lloyd will also compete for minutes, giving them 5 newcomers all looking to start. Klavzar and Brown coming back will have a chance as well, but we didn’t seem much of Brown and Klavzar was mostly just a catch a shoot option. I would expect the transfers and Ingram to dominate the minutes, and I think it’s a talented enough group to pair with this dominant frontcourt to make the Gators a threat to go back-to-back. It is all going to come down to how the guards defend, as guys like Richard and Martin were menaces on D for a team that went from 94th to 6th on D from 2023 to 2024. That was the difference for this program, and if they can continue that dominant effort on that end they will continue to be a force. My prediction is they take a small step back on D, but that still leaves an elite team offensively that plays solid D, good enough to win the SEC and make a deep run in March.
2.) Kentucky (#7)
The transition from John Calipari to Mark Pope was pretty seamless as the Wildcats were very competitive in a gauntlet of an SEC, and then they got to the 2nd weekend in the tourney for the first time since 2019. It was a complete rebuild with transfers and freshmen alike, so only bringing back 4 guys isn’t a huge concern since much of their roster was made up of seniors. Oweh being back is gigantic and pairing him with Jaland Lowe at PG gives UK a very exciting and proven scoring duo in the backcourt. Inside they are going to be extremely athletic and versatile, with guys like Quaintance, Williams and Dioubate transferring in to join Garrison and FR Moreno. That’s going to be a deep group that not only can help with the scoring load but should be very versatile defensively, and that’s not even including the Croatian Jelavic who could have an impact. Johnson and Aberdeen give them depth in the backcourt as well, so I have no doubt they have the top end talent to justify this ranking, but they also have the depth to withstand a long season. I don’t think they’ll be as good of a shooting team, but I expect them to continue to push the pace and with all of these athletes they should just be attacking downhill relentlessly. Pope proved in year 1 he is going to be able to capitalize on the resources here at Kentucky, which means we should expect them to continue to be at or near the top of the SEC and be a Final 4 threat year in and year out. This year will be no exception.
3.) Arkansas (#11)
Year 1 under Cal brought Arkansas right back to relevance, and while they weren’t at the top of the SEC he did finally get them rolling as the year went on, seeing them finish 8-5 in the league and get to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Rick Pitino and St. John’s. I think that positive momentum continues into this year, with 4 major contributors back, some international talent and most importantly those two 5-star FR guards who should come in and give them instant pop scoring the ball. They developed into a top-20 team defensively last year, which will need to continue for them to finish where I have them this year. My expectation if that does happen is that the FR guards give them a lift on the other end and all of a sudden you have a team that plays with physicality, the way they did last year, and can score at much higher level. They certainly lost guys like Thiero and Aidoo who helped them on D, but they played stretches without them and the young guys played well. I think we see a jump from Karter Knox and Billy Richmond who both emerged down the stretch and that, combined with the incoming talent, should vault the Razorbacks into contention in the SEC. Cal’s best teams at UK were consistently top-20 defensively, and while it fell off the last few years much of that was due to relying solely on FR that just couldn’t get it down quick enough. The mix of returning experience with some FR adding in where they fit to me is a much more solid approach and should drive them to taking a step forward in year 2.
4.) Alabama (#13)
Nate Oats continues to roll with the Tide as he’s navigated them to 5 straight tourneys, 4 of which they made it to the 2nd weekend, including last year’s Elite 8 run. Throw in a regular season title and 3 straight top-3 finishes overall in the SEC and it’s clear this is one of the best programs, not just in the SEC, but in the entire country right now. With all of that said, this might be his least talented team on paper that he’s had in a couple of years. While I still think they’re a top-15 team probably, the incoming FR are not elite and the transfers are more solid than great, and ultimately they don’t have that All-American potential player that we’ve come accustomed to seeing here under Oats. The backcourt of Philon/Holloway/Wrightsell will be fun to watch push the ball and fire away from 3, but they’re undersized and not the best defensively. I think Bethea could be a wildcard as he was a 5-star recruit to Miami last year and could give them more size at the guard spot, so if he can up his shooting numbers he could fit right in. They are also going to need transfer big man Williamson to be impactful as he should share the center load with returning Soph Sherrell who did show promise last year. Don’t get me wrong the talent is still here, but at the end of a close game who are you trusting with the ball in his hands to get it done? In the past it was guys like Mark Sears or Brandon Miller, but honestly Philon and Holloway have been pretty erratic so far in their careers. I’m worried about the defense regressing and same with their overall efficiency offensively. Small step back for Bama, but still a tourney team that is always going to be dangerous in March if they get hot from deep.
5.) Tennessee (#14)
The Final 4 continues to elude the Tennessee program under Rick Barnes, as they’ve now been to back-to-back Elite 8’s and 4 total Sweet 16’s over the last few years but haven’t been able to break through. This year might be a bit tougher, as this is the team with probably the most question marks for me coming into the season because nearly all of the production from last year’s team is gone. They are going to be relying heavily on transfer PG Ja’Kobi Gillespie and FR phenom Nate Ament. The latter is the guy who is likely going to have to shoulder the offensive load, as there really isn’t a ton of proven scoring and playmaking outside of Gillespie, who will need to be the Robin to Ament’s Batman. The next question is will Barnes be able to get all of these newcomers up to snuff on the defensive side of the ball, something we’ve come to expect from the Vols with him as the head man. They have been top-5 defensively each of the past 5 seasons, which is pretty remarkable, and really only Houston can come anywhere close to that kind of consistency on that end over that time span. The culture is there, but can it be preserved without the roster continuity that we’ve seen in the past? Even if it does and they’re back to being a top-5 team defensively, then we turn our attention back to the guard play and that’s the scary thing. Gillespie will run the show, but is LA Tech transfer Amaree Abram ready to step right into SEC play? What about the Israeli guard Burg? Or maybe it’s top-75 recruit Evans? I’ve used enough question marks to get my point across I believe. I trust Barnes enough to consider this Vols team a top-20 team going in, I mean most programs after the top-5 or so have questions, but it might be bumpy out of the gates as he searches for those answers. Either way, you’re going to at least want to tune in to see Ament who should be a top-5 pick and will heavily impact their ceiling this year.
6.) Auburn (#20)
Speaking of question marks, what on earth should we expect from this Auburn program this year now that only Tahaad Pettiford remains? That of course includes former HC Bruce Pearl who just a few days ago as of writing this retired and left the keys to the program to his son Steven. Almost an entirely new roster, a somewhat new coaching staff, at least at the top…what do we do with that? Well, I’m going to try and focus on the talent at hand, and it’s certainly there for this to be a top-25 team despite the turbulence felt in the fall. Pettiford is an All-American caliber guard now that he can run the show and he’ll be joined by Keyshawn Hall who scored at an elite level with UCF last year as a hybrid 3/4 man. Not only that, international big Jovic has promise as well, so there are options here for them offensively. Depth is going to be a concern though there’s no doubt about that, as they’re simply forced to rely on JUCO guys and FR to fill out their rotation. They may not need them to score double figures but the FR Williams-Adams and Magwood along with the DII/JUCO transfers are going to need to provide quality minutes there’s no way around it. So, what I’m saying is they’re top heavy, with at the very least a 1-2 combo in Pettiford and Hall that should ball out every night and get them into the upper half of the conference. In order to push further than that they need Murphy and Jovic to be solid contributors and some other guard to emerge to help Pettiford out. All of that is ignoring the fact their head coach just left the program. Expectations should still be high due to the talent, but asking Steven Pearl to have this much success might be asking too much. We’ll see how it plays out.
7.) Texas
Well the Rodney Terry experiment has come to its inevitable conclusion as he got worse YOY in each of his 3 full seasons after taking over for Chris Beard. In comes a proven vet in Sean Miller who has not only retained some holdovers from last year, a tough thing to do in today’s environment, but also brought in some very nice pieces to fit around them. The trio of Pope/Mark/Weaver give them stability in the backcourt, and you can see based on who was brought in Miller is comfortable with those guys as he focused mostly on the 3-5 positions. We know his play style is a fast paced game with a wide open offense, as we’ve seen it at both Arizona and Xavier. He brought in guys like Cam Heide who is athletic and can really shoot it, but also guys like Wilcher and Swain who prefer to get out and run and attack downhill from the wing spot. Inside the german transfer Duru should come right in and have a role at the 4 spot with mid-major transfers like Traore and Vokietaitis looking to play the 4/5 spot as well. It’s much more of a question mark what you’ll get from that group, and that’s the hesitation as rebounding and protecting the paint could be a major concern. I don’t doubt they’ll be able to score, but much like Miller’s prior stops at Xavier and Arizona, the defensive end will tell the story in terms of how much success they have. They seem like a borderline top-25 team that should make the tourney, but again, if they can’t defend or rebound they could fall short of that. I’m betting on Miller and the guards, but I’m not super confident.
8.) Mississippi St
It is indisputable that Chris Jans is a fantastic HC in college basketball, now getting the Mississippi St Bulldogs to 3 straight tourney’s after they made it just once the 13 seasons prior to his arrival. They happen to be 0-3 in the dance, but eventually they are going to break through in my opinion. They have one of the best scoring guards in the SEC back in Josh Hubbard, and while much of the production outside of him has parted ways, the incoming group is solid and should position them right back in the middle of this conference. Epps alongside Hubbard gives them a solid 1-2 punch in the backcourt, and guys like Achor, Walker and Ballard give them solid pieces up front as well. They also welcome in 3 top-100 recruits who will hopefully stick around and develop under Jans so he can try and sustain some cohesion going forward. I will be interested to see the style of play, as to start his tenure Jans had this program mucking games up, playing a physical brand of ball that produced top-10 defenses, they just struggled to score. It flipped by year 3 where they were a top-25 offense but barely top-50 on D. All 3 years ended about the same, but how they got there was much different, especially the pace as they went from 336th to 127th. Either way, I don’t see this roster competing with the top of the league, but they certainly could get back into the dance as a 8-10 seed and try and take another step forward by winning a tourney game.
9.) Ole Miss
I am a noted Chris Beard stan so I tend to have his team’s a bit higher than most in the preseason because I do believe he’s one of the best coaches in the country. It took him just to year 2 at Ole Miss to start doing things that hadn’t been done in 24 years in Oxford by getting the Rebs to the Sweet 16. Almost all of their production were Seniors though, so really only Malik Dia is back as a major contributor, so it will be tough to maintain that same level of success. The biggest question I had when looking at the roster was AJ Storr…was last year an aberration or is he really just cashing a check? Beard’s #1 priority has to be to get Storr to buy in and play hard, because if he does that he’s a fantastic player and could be their leading scorer and a main reason they get back to the dance this year. Around him guys like Scott, Johnson and Perry all come from P5 schools and are looking for expanded roles. They have promise I’ll say that, but this could easily fall short, especially if Storr is not a reliable double digit scorer and a complete no-show on D again. The frontcourt is full of guys Beard loves as they’re undersized but athletic, which helps with his high pressure defensive style as he’s historically played small ball 5’s so they can switch 1-5. He shifted back to that last year and transformed them from 141st on D to top-25. I expect them to defend well again, and if Storr buys in they could be a top-25 team, but I’m hesitant on that. There’s a chance he plays lazy D and Beard does exactly what Self did and barely plays him. Even if that happens I think they can make the tourney, that’s how much I respect Beard, but they’ll be scratching and clawing down the stretch to get there.
10.) Vandy
Mark Byington deserves a ton of credit for what he did with Vandy last year, bringing in almost an entirely new roster and taking that team to the tourney. He is forced to do that again basically, as he saw 8 guys hit the portal and in turn brought in 8 new faces via the portal. They do get 2 starters back with Nickel and McGlockton back as the starting frontcourt, but they’ll likely hope that Jalen Washington from UNC can be the starting 5 and actually give them some size inside after starting those 2 at just 6’7″ last year down the stretch at the 4/5 spots. The backcourt is entirely overhauled, and while the metric sites seem to like all that they added, it looks to me like a lot of inefficient scorers, relying on a guy like Frankie Collins who is now on his 4th team in 4 years, to run the show. There are some nice pieces here don’t get me wrong, with guys like James and Miles already proving they can produce at the P5 level. My concern with them is on the defensive side of the ball, and my mind is blown at what sites like KP and Miya have them ranked preseason on that end given how bad they were last year and how bad Byington teams have historically played on that end. I for one, do not expect them to transform into a top-25 defense like KP does, as Byington has never even had a top-70 team defensively. He wants to play fast and score, defense seems to be an after thought. They should rebound better, maybe defend the paint better with Washington, but I still don’t see it being the emphasis that it needs to be to get to that level. Because of that I think they’re a bubble team that will be right on the border of in or NIT, and while he proved his ability to build the roster last year and get them to play well offensively, it cannot be overstated how difficult it is to do that and get a team to be elite defensively. I don’t see that happening, unlike some computers.
11.) Georgia
Similar to Beard at Ole Miss this is just a bet on Mike White who I really think is building something at a school where most could care less because it’s so heavily a football school. They made the dance last year for the first time since 2015, and while they didn’t get their first win since 2002, you feel like that was a major step to just get there again. I like that he has kept a few of his recruits with guys like Cain, Cyril and James all coming back, and this group of transfers is actually pretty exciting. Catchings was a top-50 recruit with good size and can really shoot it, and the guards coming in to help Cain all have shown promise and have multiple years of eligibility aside from Bailey. Really what I trust from White is that his teams are going to play hard and play well defensively. I don’t know if the talent will mesh or what the ceiling is, but I do think the guys coming back can develop and take a step forward and I like the promise of the transfer guys. They have gone from 132–>58–>32 defensively over his 3 years, so I would expect that his standard and culture has been established. The question will be can they score enough with these uber-talented SEC teams to compete and find their way back into the dance. I’m not sure of that, but I do think it’s an underrated roster and White is an underrated coach who has done a good job here. Bubble team is my expectation, with the acknowledgement they may not be able to score well enough to be a tourney team.
12.) Mizzou
Have to give Dennis Gates his flowers here because heading into last year this program, and his reputation, were in total flux. Year 1 saw them make a surprise tourney run and win a game, and then the wheels fell of and they went 0-18 in the SEC in 2024. Remarkably, the administration stuck with Gates, as did a good portion of the team, and with some transfer help they quickly rebounded to make another tourney appearance last year. Once again, Gates is welcoming back a good portion of last year’s roster, with returning starters Mark Mitchell, Anthony Robinson and Trent Pierce all back. The bigger thing I’ve been watching is he’s retaining both FR and transfers in, so the guys are buying into what he’s selling here even with that disaster results wise in 2024. All of that said, they did lose some very important pieces in the backcourt, as Grill, Bates, Perkins and Warrick were all big time contributors and integral to their success. So, how are they backfilling? Well, they’re going to turn to transfers Jayden Stone and Sebastian Mack plus top-100 recruit Boateng who they’ll need to make a SO jump. Therein-lies the reason for them being this low in my mind, as they were a top-10 offense both years Gates got them to the tourney, and I’m not feeling that great about Mack and Stone, both guys who have struggled from 3. They have never defended well under Gates overall, but their 2 good seasons they were top-10 in steal %. That’s the goal here, playing fast and high pressure D that generates steals by gambling. Don’t succeed and you’re out of position and give up a bucket. In summary, I see regression on both ends. Maybe Stone and Mack deliver, maybe they defend the paint better and generate steals at the same rate, but that’s too much to overcome in my opinion to see them repeat last year’s success.
13.) Texas A&M
Texas A&M is now the latest victim of Buzz Williams’ desire to abandon programs he has built up, and they now have to turn to Bucky McMillan who has spent the last few years running wild at Samford in the SoCo. He is going to have the Aggies playing his run and gun style but there is no reason for me to believe this hodge podge of transfers under Bucky is going to play even a lick of defense. Yes, I’m willing to admit the talent level coming in here is actually good enough for them to compete in the SEC, with guys like Pop Isaacs, Mgbako and Griffin all proven guys at the P5 level. It just screams of an AAU pick-up style of play where they just push the pace, launch from deep and play zero defense. Bucky never had a top-100 defense at Samford and actually only cracked the top-200 once, which was his lone trip to the tourney in 2024. That team was 15th in the country at forcing TO’s, so if there’s a glimmer of hope here is that they adopt that havoc style of defense and these guys buy into that and can generate TO’s with a high pressure style of play. The issue he had at Samford was they took a lot of chances, gambled and got out of position, so their FG% allowed was abysmal. That’s what I expect from them this year, and while they should be able to score with anyone it’s not going to be enough in a league this tough from top to bottom.
14.) Oklahoma
Porter Moser finally had a breakthrough of sorts last year with the Sooners as he finally got them to the dance in year 4. Unfortunately for him almost that entire team is gone, headlined by Jeremiah Fears heading to the NBA early. It’s going to be tough sledding for him but there is a tiny glimmer of hope considering the top end talent that he got in the portal. All 4 of these transfers should start, with the 5th starter up in the air. That takes you to the guys beyond that top 4, which is a giant question mark with returning guys that haven’t proven production at this level, coming from mid-major schools, JUCO, Denmark and of course high school. At the end of the day, I think the transfers keep the ship afloat but it is impossible to predict what kind of help those guys are going to have around them, much less how they gel and play together. Individually they are very good college basketball players, but how they come together and how they’re supported is a complete unknown and why I am keeping them down here. They are certainly not without hope to get back to the tourney, which is the crazy thing about the SEC as there are now 14 teams who legitimately enter the season with hopes to get to the tourney. I don’t think the Sooners will be one of them, but if they’re fighting on the bubble come February I wouldn’t be surprised by any means.
15.) LSU
I don’t really know what’s going on with Matt McMahon at LSU and I’m not really sure anyone cares in the administration. He has 3 seasons under his belt and has underperformed in each of them, with his best finish 88th in Kenpom. In fact, he has finished >35 spots lower than their preseason ranking each of those 3 seasons, meaning the talent on the roster is greater than the results we are seeing. Doing less with more year after year is usually a cause for firing, but we march on with McMahon in Baton Rouge. We are essentially looking at a team with a compilation of mid-major talent, and while they’re proven at that level we’re talking about what is now the best conference in the sport. You’re not competing with Florida/Kentucky/Alabama with a bunch of mid-major guys. Can some guys rise up and contribute, even at a high level sometimes, yes. But when that’s most of your roster it’s just not going to work. He did get 3 top-100 recruits so I’ll give him credit there, but his ability to hold on to them as Sophomore’s in the past has been essentially 0. Again, every year he has wildly missed expectations and this year is the lowest starting point yet. Not great.
16.) South Carolina
It is starting to look like the 2024 trip to the NCAA tourney was more of a one-off for Lamont Paris than a sign of momentum here at S. Carolina. I do think he’s a good coach but he appears to not be getting the resources needed to compete in the SEC right now. Most of the talent is gone from last year’s team that won just 2 conference games, and maybe that includes some addition by subtraction if you’re trying to be positive, but it’s never a good sign when that many guys are fleeing the program. The bigger issue is what is coming in to replace it as there are 4 low rated recruits and 6 transfers that frankly are not moving the needle besides the return of Meechie Johnson. It’s pretty clear this is the least talented roster on paper and given Paris has 2 seasons under his belt in which he won just 5 combined SEC games, there’s precedent for the Gamecocks to finish last. Yes, 2024 happened, but I’m looking at that as an outlier at this point, especially given the gap in talent.
Coming off of back-to-back championships, last year was a trip back down to earth for Hurley and his UConn Huskies. It of course wasn’t a complete failure as they still made the dance and won a game as an 8 seed, but it was a reset as they tried to reload after losing nearly everyone from those 2 championship runs. The last remaining stalwart is Alex Karaban, who is back for his final season, and the young talent that Hurley has brought in is sticking around in large part, with guys like Ball, Stewart and Ross all back attempting to grow into larger roles. At the end of the day, we know this will be a well coached team and the transfer backcourt additions should improve what was a relative weak point last year with Mahaney disappointing and the group being the worst shooting team here since 2021. Depth was also an issue for them last year and boy did Hurley fix that as he has brought in a ton of talent, all of which just simply can’t play this year, but to have them able to compete for time and push each other in practice is a fantastic sign. It might be hard to hold on to them all, but to have amassed this much talent has to lead you to believe Hurley is going to find a group of 8-9 guys that can contend with anyone in the country given the proven commodities he has at his disposal. I have no idea how the rotation will sort out, aside from Ball and Karaban, but it’s an embarrassment of riches for a HC that has built enough trust to believe this is going to be one of the best teams in the country, not just the Big East.
2.) St. John’s (#6)
I have immense respect for Rick Pitino and what he’s doing with St. John’s is just cementing his legacy as one of the all-time coaches in college basketball. Last year ended on a bit of a sour note though, losing in the 2nd round amidst a benching of star player RJ Luis. Outside of that, bringing St. John’s back to life and winning the Big East in year 2 is an awesome accomplishment and by the looks of it they’ll be right back in contention this year. Granted, there are a few question marks given all the talent that is leaving the program, but this transfer class is about as good as it gets across the country. You have two guys coming in with Hopkins and Mitchell who can play the 4 spot next to Ejiofor who is back to dominate the paint so the froncourt will be a strength. Their big weakness last year was scoring the ball and it’s inarguable that the guards Jackson, Sellers, Sanon and Darling are a better group of guards scoring the ball than they had last year. They may take a step back defensively from what they were last year but I fully expect a top-50 offense this year which should make up for a small step back on the other end. Expect The Garden to be rocking all year long once again and expect a better finish to the year from St. John’s who should absolutely be a national contender.
3.) Creighton (#18)
Greg McDermott continues to churn out successful season after successful season here at Creighton, and while it hasn’t produced much hardware they are still one of the perennial contenders in the conference and have made the dance 5 straight years, winning at least 1 game in each and reaching the 2nd weekend 3 of those trips. No Final 4’s or national titles, but you can’t talk about college basketball without at least considering what Creighton is doing in the Big East. Now, much of last year’s team is out, but there are several young pieces back looking to step into a larger role and the transfer class is very solid. I love the duo coming over from Iowa as both Dix and Freeman are fantastic fits in McDermott’s fast paced system. The returning bigs playing around Freeman will give them a very solid front court, the big question is going to be at the 2-3 spots. They have several options there, with mid major transfers Graves and Harper being good experienced options but the FR Greer and young transfer Swartz, a top-60 recruit to Miami last year, should both contend for minutes there as well. If a couple of those guys really hit and can contribute then I think Creighton can join UConn and St. John’s in the top tier of this conference, but for now I’ll keep them a step behind just due to the question marks in that backcourt. Nevertheless, I expect it to be 6 straight trips to the dance, with the outside chance that duo of Dix and Freeman have enough around them to be Final 4 threats.
4.) Marquette
There are very few programs across the country that are as tight of a ship as this Marquette program under Shaka Smart. This is now 2 years in a row that he hasn’t taken in a transfer, and with just one player exiting via the portal they win the roster continuity award by a mile. Of course, you have to be concerned about how heavily they leaned on dynamic playmakers like Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones who are now gone with no obvious guys filling those voids. That’s where the lack of using the transfer portal could come back to bite them, but one thing we know for sure is they are going to be a nightmare defensively. They were top-20 in the country each of the last 2 seasons at forcing TO’s, their big issue last year was allowing offensive rebounds. That’s an even bigger concern than the scoring deal because they added nothing to change that on the interior. That’s why I have them outside of my top-25 to start the year, and while I respect what Shaka is doing by bringing in FR, developing them and ultimately rewarding their loyalty by giving them the shot to grow into starting roles, it makes it difficult to fill holes when they arise. They desperately need Royce Parham to make a leap forward and a guy like Josh Clark who redshirted could be important as a 7-footer. At the end of the day I respect Shaka and trust in their defense enough to have them up here, but how they score and control the glass, two major components of the game, will determine just how good they can be. It’s not going to be his best team here, but I expect a 5th straight tourney appearance in year 5 for Shaka who has experienced much more success here than at Texas.
5.) Providence
I’m banking on last year being an aberration as I was uber impressed with Kim English in year 1 with the Friars. Last year just was a disaster ultimately with injury after injury to major contributors. We’ll hope they have much better injury luck and taking a look at the transfer talent that is coming in they should have a lot to work with, especially with Jason Edwards coming in and leading the show. I like Sellers and Floyd next to him and they have some strong frontcourt additions in Powell and Hargrove as well. Overall, I think if all this talent clicks and they get back to defending like they were in year 1 under English they have an outside shot at a tourney berth. They certainly aren’t going to be world beaters, but if they’re hitting their ceiling it won’t be fun traveling to Providence, Rhode Island in that environment. Look for guys like Mela and Erhunmwunse to be important development pieces as well, as they started shining late in expanded roles after all the injuries. This would be my dark horse to be a fun team that gets in as like a 10 seed. Not sure if that’s popular sentiment but there’s a surprising amount of talent here and English can coach. Watch out for the Friars is all I’m saying.
6.) Georgetown
Ed Cooley has had a bit of a tough time building back this Georgetown program, but last year was a major step in the right direction as they went from just 2 conference wins in year 1 all the way up to 8 a year ago. Now, they actually started out the year 12-2 before falling apart, but much of that was due to injuries to most of their top guys including NBA draft pick Thomas Sorber. The signs were good enough for me to believe Cooley has this train moving in the right direction, especially since he was able to hold on to some young talent that he brought in as his first true FR class. On top of that the transfers coming in I also like as a mix of veterans and promising young guys that should make immediate impacts. Mack/Lewis/Love make for a solid backcourt, with young pieces around them like DHS/Abraham/Williams looking for a bigger role than they previously had. The frontcourt could be the issue though, with just Iwuchukwu and the 3 returning guys from last year’s FR class (2 redshirts), I kind of question what that will look like. I do have them finishing better than last year, but I’m not sure if it will be good enough or not to get into the dance. They will need those transfer guards to really step up and also to continue their momentum defensively they showed last season (321st–>58th YOY). If they can get stops and this backcourt scores the way I think they can they should be fighting on the bubble all the way to the end. That’s the ceiling, but certainly with this many question marks it could be worse..
7.) Xavier
Well we have a 2nd Pitino entering the Big East as son Richard joins his dad in this conference that is fighting to remain in the power conference conversation without football. While I am excited about the potential here with Pitino and Xavier, I’m not convinced this rag tag group of mid-major transfers is going to get them humming in year 1. I mean, just look at the stark difference in roster makeup between UConn/St. John’s and this Xavier roster. I’m not trying to belittle the talent of these guys of course, but there are levels to this thing, and frankly I’m not buying stock in Xavier to be nationally relevant beyond the matchups between father and son that will inevitably capture people’s attention. I have no idea the resources that Xavier does or doesn’t have, but in this era that does matter and if they can’t pay to acquire the necessary talent Pitino might just use this as a launching pad to a job where he can. Now, that doesn’t preclude you from being competitive in the Big East and finding a way into the dance, but long term I wonder if he can build them to the point that UConn/St. John’s are so he can contend nationally. Also, let’s not totally conflate Richard’s history with his father’s, as Richard was the HC at Minnesota for 8 years and only made the dance twice. He got it going the last couple years at New Mexico but he has much to prove as a HC still. To say the least, I have reservations, both about this year’s roster and the future of this pairing of Xavier/Pitino. We’ll see how it plays out.
8.) Villanova
No program in the country has been more sad than the post-Jay Wright Villanova Wildcats over the past couple of years. Kyle Neptune was predictably unable to continue the success of Wright, taking a program that had made the tourney 9 straight years, including 2 national titles, through 3 straight seasons of missing the dance altogether. In comes Kevin Willard, who surprisingly left a Big Ten job to come back to the Big East to try and turn this ship around. He is going to have his work cut out for him in year 1 as he tries to completely rebuild this roster, with just 2 guys returning from a year ago. That means 8 transfers and 3 FR, with most of the proven production coming from the mid-major ranks. Devin Askew is probably the most proven commodity, a UK recruit way back in 2020, he should lead the show. Frankly though, beyond him it’s a bunch of question marks in terms of production that you can absolutely count on. That is why they are so low, and while it would be wild to think Villanova is going to remain outside of relevancy for a 4th year in a row, that is the state you can quickly find yourself in when you make the wrong hire. Neptune was that, and Willard is left to clean up the mess, we’ll see how much hay he can make in year 1.
9.) Butler
As an Indiana native seeing this Butler program struggling like this is a sad sight, but they really don’t have much to work with in this current era of college sports, so they’ll continue to hope that the wily vet Thad Matta can get some momentum going for this program that hasn’t been dancing since 2018. From the looks of it they were able to take one big swing in the transfer portal getting Jalen Jackson to run the show, and they’re going to need him to shoulder a big load offensively. They have some nice pieces to play around him with Butler and Ajayi coming in, and Bizjack returning as a catch and shoot option. In terms of playmaking though it’s going to all be on Jackson. This is probably Matta’s best FR class so that’s good news, but his track record of holding on to the FR he’s brought in is not great, as evidenced by the 5 guys transferring out this cycle. Much of that could be due to the money available at other schools, and that’s just the issue non-football schools are going to face. Short of a mega rich donor they’re left with only what the Big East can provide sans-football. Unfortunate, but Matta is going to have to coach his tail off to get this group back to the dance.
10.) DePaul
Alright we’re right where we want to be if you’re Chris Holtmann rebuilding DePaul. Sounds weird to say after just 4 Big East wins, but considering DePaul had won only 3 such games over the prior 2 seasons combined that is a major step forward. Now, after bringing in an entirely new roster last year you have 4 guys back, 3 of them being core rotation pieces. That’s progress, some momentum you might even say. You’ll of course have noticed I still have them way down at 10th in the league, but we’re starting from literal scratch here so this should not be offending anyone. I love that the backcourt is back with Gunn and Blocker, and Benson should slot right back in to contribute inside as well. What we’re looking at here are the additions of Banks and Maclin for scoring help as well as a wild card with Khaman Maker. He’s a 7’1″ C that was a pretty good recruit, if he can come in and anchor your defense as a rim protector and rebounder, all of a sudden we may be cooking with gas partner. I’m not trying to insinuate DePaul is going to be a contender, but who is to say we can’t double that win total and get up to 8 Big East wins? Do that and we slot up a couple of spots and have some real momentum. These are the programs I love to follow because you have a real pro who has coached at a high level trying to raise a dead program. That’s what this is all about, and while I doubt there’s a large contingency of DePaul hoops fans out there reading season previews…if you’re here just know, I’m rooting for you, and I see the light at the end of the tunnel.
11.) Seton Hall
It looked like Shaheen Holloway was going to be able to navigate the Big East waters well after year 2 where he had Seton Hall just on the outside of a tourney berth with positive momentum from year 1. That all came crashing down last year in what was nothing but a disaster of a season that culminated in just 2 Big East wins and finishing below DePaul. It’s one of those seasons you have to flush, and lucky for Holloway in this era you can just cycle everyone out and bring in an entire new team with relative ease. The unfortunate part is most of these guys are either productive mid-major talents or unheralded guys transferring down from power 4 conference teams where they didn’t play much and/or were wildly inefficient. That could be a good thing if they’re fighting to break through, but it could also be they didn’t earn that PT for a reason other than just simply a better guy was in front of them. None of those guys were these promising recruits that just need a role to shine in my opinion, so I genuinely think we’re looking at the worst team in the Big East here yet again with Seton Hall, in what could be Holloway’s final season here if that’s the case. Maybe he gets them to be an elite defensive team, as that’s his calling card, but that’s asking a lot for a team of complete strangers to come together and be connected on D. I don’t see it happening to say the least, so for Seton Hall I expect another tumultuous season that likely ends in a coaching search come spring.
Well the runner-ups from a year ago are poised to not miss a beat this year as a good chunk of last year’s group is back along with a trio of promising FR who are looking to come in and make an immediate impact. We all know who Houston is under Kelvin Sampson at this point, so we know how they’ll play, the question is going to be how good these FR really are and how quickly they adapt and conform to this play style. At this point I trust Sampson to bring guys in who fit his mold, so I don’t question whether they will play hard and be good defensively. The question with Sampson coached teams is how the other end of the floor is going to look. They lost Roberts and Cryer who were major contributers, especially as playmakers, so the onus will now be on guys like Sharp, and even more so Uzan, to step up as playmakers for others. Uzan was that oftentimes, but he did struggle with foul trouble at times so he’ll need to stay on the floor and run the show this year. It will be interesting to see which of the FR emerge, with Cenac obviously the leading candidate to fill the void inside, but Harwell and Flemings are certainly going to push for PT and will make Houston very deep. Here’s what I know for sure, they’re going to be insanely tough, a great rebounding team and they have the talent to be the best team in the country. I have them 2 just because there are a few more questions offensively than I have for Purdue (defensively) but it’s truly a toss-up. Everyone questioned how Houston would adapt to the Big 12, and so far they’re 2 for 2 on regular season titles. Not too shabby. Now, can they break through for a National title? That’s the goal, along with a 3 peat, for a program that is absolutely rolling.
2.) Arizona (#8)
Tommy Lloyd has been very successful since coming over to Arizona in his first HC job, including last year as they acquitted themselves well in year 1 in the Big 12 finishing 3rd. The issue right now has been March success, with 4 trips overall and 3 exits in the Sweet 16 and one 1st round exit. Now, many programs would take going to 3 out of 4 sweet 16’s, but when you keep knocking on the door like this, especially being top-4 seeds each year, you’d like to break through at some point and push for a Final 4 berth. They certainly will have the talent to do so this year with 4 major pieces from last year’s group back and 3 elite FR joining the fun, plus some international talent that have some upside. I’m not going to try and project exactly what the rotation looks like, but the talent acquired and returning jumps off the page. They may have some depth concerns in the backcourt, which the transfer addition of Nelson points to as a concern for Lloyd, but starting Bradley and Burries should be a solid 1-2. Knowing Lloyd and seeing this talent I would expect Zona to not miss a beat offensively and to be back to their fast pace top-10 level offense. How they defend is always the question, and it’s been a mixed bag under Lloyd so far. They are going to have a lot of size and length inside, with good rebounders like Awaka and Peat in there as well, so it really could just come down to perimeter defense and overall attention and effort on that end that will determine their ceiling. Goal has to be a run to the Elite 8/Final 4, where anything can happen. If the FR deliver, they can cut down nets in March no doubt.
3.) Iowa St (#10)
Last year was a bit of a bumpy road for an Iowa St team that came into the season as a legit national title contender. They were up and down defensively, and ultimately lost star guard Keshon Gilbert late in the season which doomed them to a second round exit while giving up 91 points. That is not something we’ve come to expect from Otzelberger’s Cyclones, and while they were still 13th defensively, that’s the first time they haven’t been a top-8 team on that side under Otz. Conversely, it was the first time they were even top-50 on the other end (19th), so they clearly sacrificed some on D to improve on the O. I expect a shift back in the direction of top-10 D for them, and with the trio of Jefferson, Momcilovic and Lipsey all back as returning double digit scorers they should have enough punch to be right in the mix yet again. The transfers do leave a little to be desired, but Nelson was the WAC POY and Williams is a career 38% 3 point shooter, something they’ll need. I would expect a little regression offensively so while they may not be as talented as a year ago the results could easily be better as they should absolutely be good enough to get to a Sweet 16. Bottom line, I trust Oztelberger to have them playing elite defense and there looks to be enough scoring here that they’ll be back to their ways of grinding people down and winning low scoring games.
4.) BYU (#15)
BYU under Kevin Young is now one of the more intriguing programs in the country, with a fast pace play style and the money to bring in talent, they may be a force in college hoops going forward. They bring back Saunders who was their leading scorer and Keita inside who is one of the best old school big men in the game. Add in Rob Wright who will run the show at the point and the #1 overall FR AJ Dybantsa and there’s no doubt this is a loaded roster talent wise. The question is going to be if they can score at an elite enough level to make up for the likely deficiencies on D. They were 82nd a year ago on that end, and it didn’t matter in their 2nd round game against Wisconsin that they won 91-89, but against an elite Bama team they lost 113-88. Who knows, maybe they’ll turn that around, but the archetype of NBA style HC who let’s the boys loose to try and score 100 every night usually doesn’t end up leading to strong play on the other end. The play style mixed with the intrigue of Dybantsa makes the Cougars a must watch early in the year, and if it all clicks they should be primed to be relevant all year long. I’m not sure they’ll defend well enough to get to a Final 4, but hopefully we at least see Dybantsa and this offense make the dance and put on a show.
5.) Texas Tech (#17)
Absolutely fantastic season for McCasland at Texas Tech last year as they were 2nd in the conference and went to the Elite 8. Credit also to McCasland for completely transforming his style of play from his time at North Texas where they slowed the game down and played suffocating D. Now, they’re not quite running and gunning, but they are playing a bit faster and super efficient offensively (5th last year). They did lose a lot coming into this year, but still will be headlined by a strong 1-2 punch in JT Toppin and Christian Anderson. The transfer guards can all shoot the rock, over 40% from 3, but there seems to be a glaring weakness inside as they don’t have much depth behind Toppin and the 4 spot is going to be small. Not only that, they lost their lead man in Hawkins who was a big time playmaker for them and a dog on defense. The Darrion Williams loss is also big but I do like Watts filling that small ball 4 spot, I just worry about the depth inside and playmaking from the backcourt. I see a small step back this year for the program, and it could be that the football program’s heavy investment took some resources away from basketball which could have prevented them from holding on to guys like Williams and Overton. Either way at the top they’re still very talented as I expect Toppin to continue dominating inside and Anderson and Watts both look primed to have good seasons as options 2 and 3. I see them as a 4-5 seed that could be a surprise contender if Anderson breaks out.
6.) Kansas (#22)
It is the end of an era at Kansas as the group led by Harris and Adams, later joined by Hunter Dickinson, are finally out of eligibility and leave with no major accomplishments. For the first time under Bill Self Kansas didn’t win or share the regular season title in back-to-back seasons. It is probably refreshing at this point for Kansas fans to welcome in almost an entirely new roster after going through what they have over the past couple of years. Of course, most normal programs would be ok with 3 tournament appearances but for Kansas to not make it out of the first weekend in March for 3 straight years is unprecedented. This obviously comes off of the 2022 National title, so it’s hard to feel bad for Jayhawk fans, but it does feel like one of the great programs is slipping just a bit. That feeling hits even harder when you take a look at this roster, which outside of the excitement of Darryn Peterson and Bidunga there is a lot to be desired. What keeps them in my top-25 is what I’ve heard about Peterson, who by all accounts is ready to lead this team from day 1. Self himself said he’s never had a player more capable of carrying a team on his back, regardless of age. I expect Peterson to put on a show, and having Bidunga inside gives them a good 1-2 punch. They better defend, and Self better get them to gel together, and if that happens they could be dangerous. I think it’s more likely they have too little production around Peterson to be a top contender, and likely will struggle to get out of the first weekend yet again. I see them in the 5-6 seed range and making it 3 years in a row not winning the league. Crazy times for a once storied program, but Peterson has a chance to be a legend, we’ll see just how good he is.
7.) Baylor
Similar to Kansas, Baylor has been in a bit of a decline since their National title in 2021, getting in to the tourney in 4 straight years but failing to get beyond the 2nd round. Scott Drew is once again having to rebuild this roster via the transfer portal and FR, but this may be the worst team on paper he’s had in a really long time. It will be headlined by two mid-major stars in Agbim and Rataj, along with 5-star FR Tounde Yessoufou, but it’s hard to get overly excited about a roster relying on mid-major talent only. Last year they were a 9 seed and had a mix of returning talent and some top-end transfers like Roach and Omier. While I obviously respect the coaching ability of Scott Drew at this point, I’ve removed them from my year in and year out contender list. They have made 10 straight tourneys, and I doubt that streak ends this year, but in a conference with so many programs ascending we no longer have to consider the Bears a contender year in and year out. Drew winning a championship here is an unbelievable accomplishment, but his best days look to be behind him in Waco. This roster just isn’t competing with Houston/Arizona/Iowa St. He will still put out a competent team, but the talent gap is insurmountable over a 20 game conference season. Middle of the pack it is, with them fighting to make the tourney again like a year ago.
8.) Kansas St
Jerome Tang entered the Big 12 with a bang, rebuilding K-State and taking them to a 3 seed and the Elite 8 in year 1. The following 2 years were anything but a success though as he tried to recreate the portal magic he delivered in his first season here. He’s back at it again in year 4 as he has another huge class of transfers coming in who on paper look like they could be very good. Obviously PJ Haggerty is going to run the show and be one of the best guards in the conference, but even Bashir and the two Johnson’s should be solid pieces as well. The real question marks are inside, as the center spot looks weak unless Buca from Romania is a stud, and overall the impact the Euro guys will have is another question mark. Most expect Kostic to come right in and have a major role, but how he translates and is able to help out Haggerty is a major piece to this puzzle that is hard to predict. Typically we’ve seen Tang coached teams excel defensively and struggle to score, but I’d be surprised if that’s the case with this group. They lack size which could hurt them on the glass and protecting the paint, so I’d expect them to need to ramp up the pace and try and force TO’s and run up the score. Of the teams I have in the middle K-State is the one I could see having a surprise rise up toward the top, and while I don’t think they can overtake Arizona or Houston there is a chance these pieces come together and K-State is very dangerous. The talent is here, it’s just all about Tang’s ability to gel them together.
9.) Cincy
Cincy was one of the bigger disappointments of last season, as they entered top-20 by most ranking systems and per Kenpom were 55th overall at the end of the season. Just 7 Big 12 wins and yet another sub-50th season for Wes Miller who has yet to gain much momentum in his 4 years here. Unfortunately for him, he is having to yet again rebuild this roster, with 8 guys leaving the program with eligibility remaining. I do like the pieces he’s brought in, especially inside with Thiam and Miller at the 5 spot, along with Haynes at the 4 I think that’ll be the strong suit. Day Day Thomas is back to lead the backcourt, but they really need some juice from Kriisa, Celestine and the FR if they want to contend for Miller’s first tourney berth here. They have been really good defensively, and I expect that to continue with the athletes inside they have to defend the paint and rebound, it really all comes down to being able to score the ball, which they haven’t figured out in 4 agonizing years under Miller, with a 56th ranking on that end being the best year including two 100th or worse finishes. While I don’t expect them to be good enough to contend with the heavy hitters, he can coach defense and has enough here they can be in the middle of the pack again and fight for bubble relevance. That’s really the ceiling here though I’m afraid.
10.) TCU
In a world of roster fluctuation and rebuilds we have here at TCU the 2nd most returning guys in the Big 12 behind Houston. Now, last year wasn’t the best as they were .500 but they did have a quick blip on the bubble when they sat 15-11 in mid-February, only to finish just 1-5. It was a young team surrounded by transfers, but the bright side here is the youth in large part stuck it out and returned, while the transfers are being replaced. I think the additions make a lot of sense, adding 4 guys who shot 35% or better from 3, an area they were dreadful in a year ago being 342nd in the country in 3 point %. I love having a young group coming back to grow and get better together, which I acknowledge makes me sound old but in a world of change my 29 year old brain enjoys seeing a roster that takes me back to the days of recruiting and developing a roster. Kudos to Jamie Dixon, and for that I’m rooting for them to improve on that .500 overall record. I like Pierre and Harding but more than that, quitely, Punch/Posey/Robinson were top-100 recruits, so there’s talent here. They’ll be a better shooting team no doubt, and if they continue to defend at a high level then I could see them fighting into a much more legitimate bubble situation and maybe even cracking through to the dance.
11.) UCF
On a year to year basis I don’t have much confidence in Johnny Dawkins as a HC, as he’s gotten to just one tourney in 9 seasons as the head man for UCF. He once again is rebuilding the roster entirely, mixing a combo of proven mid-major producers and power conference guys looking for more PT. Is there a chance all this talent comes together and can fight for a tourney berth? I suppose, but given Dawkins’ history and the lack of proven talent at the Big 12 level, I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. I happen to like the roster construction a bit more than some of the teams below, but ultimately I can’t see the ceiling being any higher than like 9th in the conference and a trip to the NIT. The floor is of course much lower, although as we get further I’ll talk about how low these teams at the bottom of the Big 12 can go; a low that I don’t see UCF reaching. There will be wins on the schedule, but I’m not sure any honest mind would tell you they expect much from this roster and this HC.
12.) Oklahoma St
While I have little hope at the bottom of the Big 12, if there is one program I feel like could actually be ascending it’s Oklahoma St. I love the hire of Steve Lutz and I love that he’s established his identity here at this program. He had only coached 3 seasons prior, but in all 3 at WKU and Tx A&M CC they played a blistering pace offensively while ramping up the pressure on D and forcing TO’s, earning a tourney ticket in all 3 years. All of that continued last year outside of the ticket to the dance, but if he can raise the talent profile I do feel like he can have success at this program. Did he do that this year? I’m not convinced of that, but I do expect steps in the right direction, and if he can hold on to the FR group he brought in then I will expect a jump in year 3. At the very least, with a step forward they will play a fun brand of ball that will result in havoc and chaotic stretches. Better than the alternative and certainly good news for a program that was once a yearly factor in the Big 12 until the brutal stretch under Mike Boynton.
13.) Arizona St
We are now a decade into the Bobby Hurley tenure at Arizona St and is anyone satisfied? Does anyone feel like there’s momentum or difference making here? I certainly don’t, and with just 3 tourney appearances (0 wins) and yet another season of missing expectations I’m starting to wonder why he’s still here. They had 2 of the top FR in the country and some very talented transfers and despite a 9-2 non-con start finished just 4-18 for yet another horrific season last year. Obviously, after a train wreck like that he is enduring another roster rebuild as we enter year 11, and frankly I don’t see anything overwhelming here to make me feel like success is around the corner. We’re basically looking at a mid-major All-Star B roster with some Euro guys coming in. Remarkably underwhelming. The fact they are this high in my conference prediction shows you the depths to which the bottom feeders are going to go as we move along, as I see no hope of a tourney appearance for the Sun Devils and we have 3 more schools to cover. While the Big 12 at the top is still very strong, this bottom group is eye-poppingly bad.
14.) Utah
It’s a new era for Utah hoops as they bring in long time NBA assistant and Utah alum Alex Jensen to lead the program. I don’t think there is more of a Utah guy that they could have brought in, as not only did he spend his college years on campus but he spent over a decade as an assistant with the Utah Jazz. Similar to the move by in state rival BYU in their hiring of Kevin Young, the Utes will hope to bring a level of pro style basketball and the allure of playing for a guy with NBA connections to lift this program back into relevancy. Throughout the 90’s and early 2000’s this was a proud program, led by Rick Majerus they were a perennial contender and National runner-up in 1998. I say all that to say there’s a level of hope and tradition here that led to this hire as they try and get back to the tourney for the first time since 2016. The roster is highlighted by some legit mid-major stars last year and a few power conference guys looking for bigger roles. Ultimately, it’s the program with the most question marks as we have very little to go on in terms of their HC and play style, and the roster is entirely new. So, who knows, but the talent level is there to at least make them frisky if all goes perfectly. Most likely another rough year but hopefully they play hard and show some promising signs for the future, as unlike Young at BYU Jensen doesn’t quite have the resources or returning talent to compete right away it appears.
15.) West Virginia
Parting ways with Bob Huggins has put this program in a tailspin as they’re now on to their 3rd HC in year 3 post Huggy Bear. He and his havoc style of play were part of my upbringing in college hoops so seeing the Mountaineers in this position stings a little as a general fan of college hoops, but I won’t waste too much time lamenting what used to be. Where we find ourselves now is a new regime led by Ross Hodge who comes over after 2 years as the head man at N. Texas. Not exactly the prestige that DeVries had, but maybe that will help the Mountaineers hold on to Hodge for more than one season. Turning to the talent on the roster, I’m not excited outside of Trey Eaglestaff who I at least am hoping is a fun watch at times. Unfortunately for him, he’s entering a very strong conference and doesn’t have any proven commodities at this level to help him out, including the coaching staff. I hope this program gets back on its feet, I just don’t think it’ll be a year 1 turnaround, and I’m sure you can see why.
16.) Colorado
I feel like Tad Boyle really had something going at Colorado out there in the PAC-12 just producing solid but unspectacular teams year in and year out. However, last year was a turn as in year 1 in the Big 12 it all came crashing down as they went just 3-17 in league play and essentially all the talent is gone from that roster. To make matters worse, it is pretty clear the resources Colorado has are being funneled to Deion and the football program, so Boyle is stuck trying to compete in the Big 12 with a roster that would fit better in the WCC. Maybe the international guys hit and Barrington Hargress translates seamlessly from the Big West to the Big 12, but even then what’s the ceiling? Doubling their conference wins to 6? It’s a sad state of affairs, but similar to guys like Mike Rhoades (Penn St) and Fred Hoibert (Nebraska) he’s losing to football and coaching with 1 arm tied behind his back. Until that changes I don’t expect much from the Buffs on the hardwood.
This is going to be one of the best team’s in the country right from the jump, with so much returning talent paired with obvious upgrades in areas of weakness, it’s as much a slam dunk as you can have. The real question is whether the additions of Cluff and Jacobsen can elevate this group on the defensive end to the level that justifies a #1 ranking. Last year they were 358th in block percentage, 332nd in 2 point shooting % allowed and 176th in defensive rebounding. The needs were obvious, and Jacobsen coming back from injury to provide them with rim protection, and hopefully some rebounding help, will be a critical factor for them getting back to the Final 4 and competing for the national title. Cluff is important as well because of his rebounding ability, but he’s not the shot blocker or the perimeter shooter that Jacobsen has shown to be. Both have their strengths, but it’s obvious going from Furst/TKR to Jacobsen/Cluff/TKR is an upgrage. Smith/TKR are going to do their thing offensively, and Israeli guard Omer Mayer has been turning heads all summer. He looks far more developed than your average FR coming into college ball, as he has the ability to create and score for himself as well as setup up teammates in a way that Purdue simply did not have outside of Braden Smith last year. That should take some pressure off of Smith and will put defenses in even more of a bind, elevating what was already a top-10 offensive team. It’s going to be beautiful to watch, but that 53rd ranking on the other end is going to be where my focus is. Can they protect the paint and finish possessions with rebounds? If so, I see no reason the Purdue Boilermakers won’t be your 2026 National Champs.
2.) UCLA (#9)
Last year for Mick Cronin and UCLA was a return to normalcy after a brutal 2024. Cronin bought into the transfer portal and completely revamped his roster which helped the Bruins get back into the tourney after a sub .500 season. Now we’re looking at a top-25 team that lost a couple starters and role players but went out and got replacements that should be better. I’m betting on Dent running the show and being one of the best guards in the Big 10. I’m betting on the front court duo of Dailey/Bilodeau once again being productive and with their shooting ability allowing them to spread things out so Dent can go to work. They lost 3 guards in Andrews/Mack/Stefanovic who all shot below 33% from 3 and replaced them with two guys who shot 40% or better last year. Better shooting, a better playmaker at PG and a more clear vision of who they will be means they should come out of the gates looking better than last year’s group. Cronin will not let them be bad defensively, so it all comes down to how they gel on the other end, and having a lead guard as good as Dent should go a long way to making that go smoothly. Another smaller weakness was on the boards, and adding Jamerson and Booker should help give them some versatility inside as they could play bigger if they need help on the glass. This has all the making of another Sweet 16 team for Cronin, albeit one that might not have the ceiling of title contender, it still should be a very good year for the Bruins that should see them right in the thick of things in the Big 10.
3.) Illinois (#16)
The major key to this Illini group contending nationally is going to be the European transfers Mihailo Petrovic and David Mirkovic. Petrovic is a classic European PG, a maestro in ball screen action where he can score it or find open teammates thanks to fantastic court vision. He should start right alongside Boswell and lead this offensive attack. As the perfect compliment to a PG that likes to operate in the ball screen Mirkovic is a stretch 4 that can pick and pop or roll and be effective. He’s not a great athlete but looks to be a more skilled version of returning big Humrichous. Combine them with 5 key returning pieces and things looks bright. However, with all of the positive outlook for the Illini offensively, it’s the other end of the floor that I worry could hold them back. They lost versatile defenders in Tre White and Will Riley, and frankly just got a lot less athletic with who came in to replace them. Could they be solid? Yes, especially with the Ivisic brothers inside to protect the paint. However, if you’re somewhere around 60th defensively, where they’ve averaged the last 2 seasons, you have to be absolutely elite on the other end if you want to accomplish what they do. The starting 5 and beyond make for a very dangerous team to slow down, but I just see them losing too many games giving up 80-90 points, especially against the top teams. There’s also a world where the European transfers struggle a bit and they fall lower than this projection, but given what we’ve seen in college ball over the past couple of seasons I don’t doubt their offensive ability at this level. I think somewhere around a 4-5 seed is very fair for this team, with the chance that they get hot in March and go on a run a la 2023 when they found their way to the Elite 8 despite being 80th defensively. Another solid season, but do Illini fans really think THIS is the roster to get them to the next level? I don’t buy it.
4.) Oregon (#19)
Dana Altman continues to churn out solid teams despite not having the resources you’d expect from a school with as much money as Oregon has. The incoming class just jumps off the page, for mostly the wrong reasons. We’re used to Oregon’s brand and Altman’s coaching bringing in top level talent, but right now Altman is relying on developing guys and trying to hit on undervalued transfers. Part of that development involves what will be a two headed monster with 2 sure fire All-Conference guys in Bittle and Shelstad coming back, along with a couple of breakout candidates in Evans and Phillips. Pair that returning talent with smart additions like Simpkins and Stewart and you can see how in spite of all I said I still have hope. I don’t see this group winning the Big 10 by any means, but I do think they could develop into a very dangerous 4-5 seed that could bust into the Sweet 16 and be a tough out. The 3 spot could be the weakness, but they brought in options to compete as Ukranian Kobzystyi, Devon Pryor or Dez Lindsay will battle for minutes there. Either way with Simpkins joining Shelstad and having Bittle anchoring them in the middle they’ll have a solid unit, plus Evans continuing to grow and Stewart in there as well I have no worries about production. Just continue to play top-25 defense and I think they’re very similar to a year ago. Not overly spectacular in any one area but solid all around and capable of beating anyone.
5.) Michigan (#21)
In some places I’ve seen this Michigan team projected as high as a top-5 team nationally, and I’m not quite getting it. They lost both members of what was probably the best frontcourt in the country in Goldin and Wolf. Yaxel Lendeborg should be really good, but he certainly is going to need help replacing that production, and Mara and Morez Johnson aren’t exactly dominant forces. I do like Cadeau coming in to replace Donaldson, but best case that’s a 1 to 1 swap in my opinion, and potentially a drop off as Cadeau is a worse outside shooter, so what’s elevating them to top-10 from a 5 seed last year? I’m not seeing it, and with no real solutions to their outside shooting woes (205th last year) they will lean on FR Trey McKenney or returning guys like Gayle and Burnett to pick up the scoring load. I don’t think they’re going to get worse, but the idea they vaulted into a top-10 team makes me feel like I’m missing something. I would have them in the category of should be solid and make the dance, but not a threat to go on a deep run or win the Big 10. Others clearly disagree, but short of McKenney having a Jace Richardson like breakout or Yaxel dominating to the point of All-American level production (Has just been named Pre-season All-American…), I don’t see them having the firepower to be a threat to win the conference or compete with the top teams nationally. Dusty May has done a fantastic job so far, but this is not the roster to get him to higher highs than he experienced last year.
6.) Ohio St (#24)
Jake Diebler’s first full season leading the Buckeyes didn’t go exactly according to plan, as they entered the season with hopes to make the tourney at the very least and failed to do so, despite reaching as high as 21 in the AP poll. There were some injuries, some transfers didn’t hit (shoutout Aaron Bradshaw) and they ultimately flamed out finishing just 4-7 down the stretch. The good news is the core of Thornton, Royal and Mobley coming back keeps the hope for success very much alive, and Diebler hit the portal again, this time bringing in some more proven production in the frontcourt. That’s why I like this group so much and have them in my pre-season top-25. The scoring punch is there with that returning core, but inside is where the struggles were a year ago as they were sub-200th in both OREB and DREB. Ojianwuna, Noel, Tilly and FR Bynum will provide them size and strength inside that they were missing last year, which should help clean up the glass and in turn help improve that 50th ranking defensively. I want to be clear this is establishing expectations, and while the talent on the roster can indicate a particular result, we have to see Diebler prove he can mesh this group together and get the results. Baseline should be making the tourney, but if everything goes right they should be a dangerous out come March thanks to that returning trio.
7.) Washington
Year 1 under Danny Sprinkle was about as bad as he could’ve envisioned, winning just 4 Big Ten games and enduring two separate 6 game losing streaks. Naturally, he has completely revamped this roster, bringing in far more proven talent, led by Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates from USC. Those two leading the charge instantly gives them offensive firepower and proven production they didn’t have going into last year. Combine those guys with high volume mid-major scorers and other big time recruits looking for more PT and all of a sudden you have a rotation to get excited about. The thing we know about these rebuilds is they are extremely volatile in terms of results, with even proven coaches like Musselman struggling to find success, but elsewhere we saw signs it’s possible, like at Louisville and Michigan. What I know about Sprinkle is he’s a damn good ball coach, getting Montana St to back-to-back tourney’s before taking Utah St to the tourney in his lone season there. He tried to bring his guys with him to the Big 10 and it fell flat. Now he has far more talent to be able to compete at this level, and given that I expect them to take a major step forward. They have 4 guards that can all score the rock in Claude, Yates, Peterson and Diallo. Ognacevic was an absolute beast at Lipscomb and then you have promising recruits like Sommerville, Tucker and Nitu who all have potential to be very good players. Bottom line, I love this roster, I love this coach and that combo makes me believe they can go from last place to tourney team, that’s how quickly things can change in today’s environment.
8.) Wisconsin
Wisconsin had a fantastic year last year thanks to the breakout by John Tonje and a strong cast of veterans around him. They played a regular 9 man rotation and all but 3 of them are gone heading into this year. Blackwell and Winter are the obvious leaders now heading into this season, but there’s a lot to question in terms of how the lost production will be replaced beyond them. Obviously, the transfer group is going to have to be the answer, but to what extent that comes to fruition is where I have some doubts. Nick Boyd and Andrew Rohde are fine replacements, but it cannot be understated how good Tonje was last year. Maybe Blackwell can take it to another level, and maybe Winter will be able to up his game to help replace the hole left by Crowl, but then we have to see Rapp/Gray or Lithuanian Bieliauskas successfully fill the other frontcourt void. I’m not saying the Badgers are going to fall off of a cliff, but I find it hard to believe they can be as good as they were a year ago with all that they lost and what has come in to replace it. Maybe there’s a guy like Tonje on the roster that is ready to breakout that I just don’t see coming, but on the surface I see an 8/9 seed that is solid but not good enough to compete with the upper echelon. This is a program under Gard that hasn’t gotten out of the first weekend since 2017, and since Bo Ryan’s exit after the 2015 title game run is just 7-7 in the dance. More is expected, I can tell you that, but can they find better? Probably not, so until then Badger fans have to hope Gard can find the right combination to bring March success back to this program. I fear this is not the year for that, yet again.
9.) Michigan St
Tom Izzo just keeps on doing it, even with all the allegations of the game passing him by or being over the hill, he turns in a year like last year where they go 17-3 in the Big Ten and get to the Elite 8 after being outside the top-30 in most pre-season rankings (ex. 35th KenPom). That was in large part to being an absolutely suffocating team defensively and the breakout of Jase Richardson. He is gone now though, along with other important guards Akins and Holloman who transferred out. The frontcourt should still be the strength with Kohler/Cooper back at the 5 and Carr manning the 4 spot. What happens in the backcourt is the mystery here and why I have them so low. I do expect Fears to take a step forward at the point in year 2, but having to rely on mid-major transfer Trey Fort, unproven 3rd year man Kur Teng and the two FR at the other spots make it difficult to project. They were a bad outside shooting team last year and lost their best shooters. Not great. If they stay a top-10 defense they will still be in the top half of the league, but I just can’t predict a ton of success offensively given all they lost and what they brought in to replace it. Maybe one of the FR once again breakout and surprise me, but I’m not counting on it. Izzo is the best of the old school coaches we have left, and it’s a joy to watch him do his thing, but i’m not sure he has the top end talent to compete for back-to-back Big Ten titles. They still could get in the tourney and then anything is possible with Izzo, but I see the ceiling as back in the 7-10 range and struggling to score all year long.
10.) Indiana
It is once again a whole new era in Bloomington as the program continues to chase the success of the ever distant Bob Knight glory days. They have made the tourney just 2 of the last 9 seasons since parting ways with Tom Crean, who committed the great crime of reaching the Sweet 16 three times and winning 2 Big Ten titles, neither of which has been done since his firing, but I digress. It will be up to Darian DeVries to lead this program back to the heights this fanbase demands, and he is faced with a mountain to climb in year 1 as he’s had to completely rebuild the roster with nobody left from last year. He brings his son Tucker, who is a stud, and a ton of proven mid-major talent, most notably Lamar Wilkerson who averaged over 20 ppg and shot an absurd 44% from 3 on high volume. There is no doubt he was able to accumulate some nice pieces, but man these rebuilds are so tough to hit on and nearly impossible to accurately predict. Last year the best jobs were Dusty May (Michigan) and Pat Kelsey (Louisville) who both made the dance and were top-3 in their league. It’s tough sledding, but there is hope, especially at a program with history, and when you look at the talent profile here it’s enough to be competitive and relevant come March. Anything less than that should be a bit concerning, and anything more you would have to give major props to DeVries. A success here would be finding their way into the dance in year 1, but even if they miss out I would expect as we get into February they are at the very least a bubble team with a fighting chance.
11.) USC
The Muss Buss stalled out hard last year as they seemed to be gaining some traction sitting at 13-8 fresh off of an upset of Michigan St entering February. They finished just 2-8 and now the roster has completely imploded, leaving Muss to have to try and completely reload yet again in year 2 at USC. He has been able to rebuild programs and rosters in the past, getting to the dance in year 2 at both of his previous stops in Nevada and Arkansas. I don’t see that happening this year. I think the roster he has put together is solid, certainly not awful, but he had more proven guys last year at the power conference level. The front court looks very average, and they will be relying on 2 mid-major guards as their primary playmakers. I’m not saying those guys absolutely can’t play at the Big Ten level, but it’s never a given. Baker-Mazara and Rodney Rice give them 2 proven shot makers but you need either the system or individual playmakers to get those guys open looks, and I don’t predict either. They will need to play fast and turn up the defensive pressure for this to work, something Muss has successfully done in the past, particularly at Arkansas. That’s where I have some hope, as he may have traded in some on paper talent for guys who fit what he wants to do a little better. Get after people defensively and get out and run. Best case that’s what they do and come February they are a bubble team and fighting for a tourney spot down the stretch. Worse case we’re in this exact same position this time next year with Muss still searching for answers.
12.) Iowa
Over the years I have been an outspoken voice urging Fran McCaffery to just once, one time, get his team to play defense. He never did, and I was critical. Despite that they routinely got hype, even rose as high as a 2 seed in the tourney, and yet after 15 long years they never made it out of the first weekend in March. Iowa fans may appreciate that 15 years simply because they became relevant, but at some point you have to expect steps forward, and they never came. They finally decided to part way and will turn to an unproven but very highly thought of HC in Ben McCollum. I think anyone reading this knows his story, which tells you despite his mere 1 season as a division 1 coach he arrives in Iowa City with all the ability to take this program to another level. Interestingly, he is going to try and do it in year 1 with many of his guys from his year at Drake, led by star guard Bennett Stirtz and in total 5 of their regular 8 man rotation. We saw this go poorly last year with Sprinkle at Washington though…He did bring in a couple of transfers to fill some gaps, including Folgueiras who should start and be a major player. Do I believe in their ability to play a Virginia-esque, grind it out style and beat the bottom dwellers in this conference? Yes, thanks to McCollum’s coaching. However, I do not think they have the top end talent to survive this Big 10 gauntlet and make it to the end of February and be a factor for the dance. Best case they’re a bubble team, but more realistically they struggle against the top half due to a lack of top end talent. Long term I expect great things, just have to be patient.
13.) Maryland
Another complete rebuild here with Maryland as Buzz Williams takes over another wounded animal of a program. The Buzz way is well documented, as he likes to come in to a promising but down and out program and build them back up, only to leave once he establishes some success and future expectations. He spent 5 years at VA Tech and 6 at A&M, only to leave after his best season at each stop. I’m not sure if that’s good news or bad, given he has been successful everywhere he’s been. It’s kind of like dating a super hot serial cheater. You’re going to have a ton of fun while it lasts but you know it’s going to end in a dirty feeling. Short term gain for long term pain. Sorry Terps fans, personally I’d want a guy to be all in on my program, and while I love Buzz he has admitted and proven he’s not that guy, as he enjoys the process of rehabbing more than trying to meet lofty expectations. But hey, what a ride it could be. Oh and about this year specifically…some talent for sure, especially in the front court with Payne, Saunders and Washington, but the backcourt of Watts and Rice leaves much to be desired. Maybe the FR will pop and they could be fighting to be a bubble team, but if tradition holds year 1 will not result in a punched ticket for Buzz and Co. That comes later, and boy could it be sweet, but whatever it is prepare for it to be ripped from your grasp in just a few short years.
14.) Northwestern
There probably isn’t a single player in the Big 10 with more weight on his shoulders than Nick Martinelli with Northwestern. He is one of the better scorers coming back in this conference, but what surrounds him is going to be the major concern all season long. Guys like Windham and Clayton showed promise down the stretch last season, and frankly they started to build some momentum with Barnhizer injured. Much of that core is back, but there is a major hole at the 5 as well as in the backcourt with Berry exiting. The transfers will try and fill the void, but I certainly am worried about the 5 spot with only Page and FR who can man that position. I think we’re looking at a pesky team here with the Wildcats who will likely knock off a couple of teams they shouldn’t at home thanks to some heroic efforts by Martinelli. There’s an outside chance guys take a step forward and these transfers come in and pop and we see this group on the bubble and fighting for a ticket to the dance. Ultimately, I don’t think there will be enough inside or enough scoring help for that to happen, but they’ll be feisty.
15.) Nebraska
Nebraska sat 17-9 and in prime position to make back-to-back NCAA tourneys for the first time since the 90’s in mid-February last year. They then lost 5 straight to end the season and miss the Big 10 tourney. That axed them from the field and marked the end of what was a decent run with Brice Williams leading the show. They now will have to flip the page and find some more talent as Fred Hoiberg continues to try and level up this program. Looking at what he was able to bring in, I’m not confident this is the year. It’s unfortunate the era that we are in right now, but it’s clear Nebraska is putting all of their resources in to the football program, so Hoiberg is playing with one arm tied behind his back. It’s hard to fault him, but the talent level here is just not going to cut it in this league. They will be well coached and play hard, but ultimately Rienk Mast, Essegian, Sandfort and some mid-major transfers just won’t be able to compete with the top half of the league. For Hoiberg and Nebraska hoops fans sake I hope the upcoming rev share era will funnel more funds to this program, because when they’re rolling the arena is a great environment.
16.) Minnesota
The Ben Johnson experiment is officially over as the alum failed to turn in a top-75 team in his four years with his Gophers. Unfortunately, that means the merry-go-round continues as once again a slew of mid-major transfers are coming in to play under Niko Medved, who took Colorado St to the dance 3 of the last 4 years. Medved clearly is a much more proven coach compared to Ben Johnson, who they hired as a first time HC, but he has his work cut out for him trying revive this program. Based on the on paper talent, I have very few expectations for the Gophers, but it would be fun to see this program get going again because The Barn can be electric when they’re rolling. I just don’t see it for 2025-26, and I’m sure you don’t either.
17.) Rutgers
Last year was undoubtedly a failure for Steve Pikiell as he brought in 2 elite talents who were top draft picks in the NBA, plus plenty of capable guys around them, and they finished below .500. Now, you can come up with whatever excuses you want, but other HC’s and other programs have found ways to win at a high level with FR leading the show. He didn’t get them to buy in, and maybe no coach would have, but ultimately what it means is they’ve now gone below .500 in back-to-back seasons after getting to the tourney the 2 years prior. Pikiell has a long enough leash at this point since he took the program from being a laughing stock to being perennially in the bubble mix. This year will not reach those highs again though, and may hit a new low that we haven’t seen since the early days of this tenure. I expect them to bounce back eventually, and they definitely need this reset to get back to the staunch defense they were known for. He brought in some good recruits so if he can hold this incoming class together I have no doubts they’ll get back in the next year or two.
18.) Penn St
If you just look at the records over the last 2 years you would think the Mike Rhoades experiment has not gone well, but under the surface he has made strides, turning in a top-60 team that did battle most nights. They just couldn’t win a close game down the stretch, losing 8 Big 10 games by single digits and now have almost completely turned over their roster. The lone returning major piece is Freddie Dillione who will be expected to take on a bigger role, but ultimately it’s hard to see how they don’t take a big step backwards with all that they lost. I do think Rhoades is a good coach, but similar to Hoiberg at Nebraska he is fighting an uphill battle getting fractional resources compared to the rest of the league as his school focuses entirely on football. Maybe he goes full euro ball and those guys hit big but even then I can’t see that being enough to vault them into bubble territory. Rough times at State Penn.
The tournament is finally here so we of course need to check to see where all of these teams sit as we enter the tourney. As I’ve been saying all year, we have 4 dominant teams and it played out as all 4 of them earned a 1 seed as Florida came on strong to end the season and claim the final 1 seed. Everyone loves to proclaim that it’s never as chalk as people think it’s going to be, but if there’s ever a year we see the 1 seeds dominate this would have to be the year. We have only had 4 teams since 2000 enter the tourney with a net Kenpom rating as high as all of our 4 1 seeds have this year. And wouldn’t you know they all made at least the Final 4 with 3 of them getting to the title game. Obviously, anything can happen as always, but you can already bet I will have at least 3 of these teams in my Final 4, with Houston the one I’m concerned about as of writing this due to the J’Wan Roberts injury. If he’s healthy full steam ahead for our all 1 seed Final 4, but if he’s out I would start to look beyond Houston at Tennessee and a sleeper pick being Clemson as the 5 seed in that region. Also, long time readers, how bout that finish to the season for Auburn? Not so crazy now am I…anywho, let’s get it.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Our same trio of elite teams that we’ve been tracking all year long. I would at minimum have these teams in the Elite 8, but watch out for Houston as they have a Strong Enough team Gonzaga potentially in round 2 with J’Wan Roberts last seen in a boot. Also, Clemson as Solid is the 5 that they could see in the Sweet 16 so the path won’t be easy.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Still have Auburn just a step off the pace but as you can see in the numbers teams here are still very successful in March, especially the first weekend. I will have Auburn in my Final 4, but losing to Florida in a SEC clash.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Tennessee is the team I’m really watching here as they’re borderline Great and looked awesome in the SEC tourney. They are Houston light, with a bit more difficulty scoring, but we could have an opening for them if Houston goes down early, so I’m thinking Tennessee to the Final 4. Iowa St is dealing with injuries so tread lightly there and I already mentioned I’m watching Clemson as a dark horse Elite 8 team.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
Alabama has a good draw with 0 other teams in trustworthy categories until the Elite 8 potential matchup with Duke. If they get knocked off before that I’m looking at Wisconsin who is just outside the Solid group. Texas Tech and Michigan St look like strong Elite 8 picks as well, as Tech has Grinder St. John’s and Sparty gets a beat up Iowa St potentially as the biggest test. Maryland has to get through Florida so I’m stopping them at the Sweet 16 but confident in them and same with A&M.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
Not picking these teams to get past the first weekend, end of story. Don’t play D you don’t win in March.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
St. John’s might be an outlier here because they’re so good on defense but I’m not taking them beyond the Sweet 16 for sure. St. Mary’s night night.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
Not much faith in any of these teams except maybe Arizona/Wisconsin who have some favorable matchups. No Final 4 for sure, probably not past Sweet 16 at best.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
No chance beyond the first weekend for these teams either. Can’t do it won’t do it.
Updated 3/16 – Date following team is date of last edit.
It’s finally Selection Sunday and man what a conversation we have around the final few spots. We are essentially looking at 2 spots available with 5 teams fighting for them. You have IU-Texas-UNC-Xavier-Boise St all in the fight for the final 2 spots in Dayton, with teams like San Diego St, Utah St and Vandy being tossed around for the other 2 but all pretty solidly in the field either way. I give my reasoning for where I think each team winds up, but let me tell you I could see any combination of those 5 being selected for those final 2 spots, as the committee can be difficult to project, especially when it’s this close. I’m leaning IU/Texas due to their volume of Q1 wins and Q1 win %, but Boise would be right there if those are the top-2 category considerations. That can be very shaken up if Memphis and/or VCU loses today though, as that would make the American a 2-bid league and then throw VCU into the mix for the last spot. So, if you’re here as a fan as one of those 5 teams you have to root for Memphis and VCU today.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 56 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. Check out my current bracket projection here.
The lane violation hear round the college hoops world…unbelievable ending to last night’s Duke/UNC game as the Tar Heels stormed back from down 24 to have a FT to tie the game in the dying moments and had it waived off on a lane violation. That loss likely ended their at-large hopes, although there is still a contingent out there who believe they have a chance. I find it hard to believe a team with a 1-12 record in Q1 is going to be given an at-large, it would certainly be unprecedented. The metrics are really their only argument, as they have just 1 win against the projected field. I have IU/Texas ahead of them due to that number, you can’t be 1-11 against the field and beat out teams who have 4+ wins against the field. It would be a crime against humanity to see UNC in the dance at this point, especially with the Mountain West stealing a bid and shrinking things up. (3/15)
Wake is dead after their loss to UNC today. They were in a great spot until they lost a trio of games to Florida St/NC State/Virginia, all outside of Q1 down the stretch. This was just the final nail in the coffin for a team who probably had the talent to be a tourney team but just fell apart in February/March. (3/13)
Well the doomsday scenario for the Hoosiers is playing out as all the teams around them seem to be cashing in on their opportunities and they lost to Oregon. That loss leaves them just 4-13 in Q1, and while they are perfect outside of Q1 they are losing the Q1 win % argument, losing the metrics argument and their best non-con win was Providence (99th). Their argument is essentially, hey remember when we beat Michigan St and Purdue? While it doesn’t sound like a whole lot it actually might be enough this year, with a teams like Xavier/UNC having just 1 Q1 win. In my opinion, they are ahead of UNC due to the 4 Q1 wins and 0 losses outside of Q1, better than the Tar Heels, and ahead of Xavier who has just the 1 Q1 win also. Those 3 are fighting over that last spot or 2, so it may come down to committee preference. Their main issue, and what I would point to if they don’t get in, are the metrics, as they average about 50th in predictive metrics, behind UNC/Xavier/Texas. I still would favor the Hoosiers and their 4 Q1 wins, but it is insanely close and all could be shaken up if Memphis and/or VCU lose today. (3/16)
With the loss yesterday to Iowa the Buckeye’s are likely dead when it comes to an at-large bid. To The Crown they go, although there may still be some people who argue they should be in. I won’t be one of them though, as if you can’t beat a bad Iowa team when your life is on the line I just don’t think you belong in the dance. They do have some really good wins on the resumé but the losses are just too much to make up for, I mean they’re just 3-4 in Q2, is that really better than a UNC that’s 7-0? I do get the Q1 wins are the golden measurement, but at some point you can’t play to the level of your competition so much that you are losing to 5 teams not projected in the tourney.(3/13)
Baylor should be pretty safe unless absolute pandemonium breaks out and the committee sees things a little differently than me. Ultimately I think the strong metrics, strong SOS and 5 Q1 wins will keep them well within the field, the loss to Texas Tech dropped them to 1-11 in Q1(A) games. Their biggest plus is they are 17-3 outside of the elite games, including those 4 Q1 games that fall just outside, so they still have some big wins and do have 4 against the projected field so enough to feel like they will get in and avoid Dayton. (3/15)
W. Virginia: 19-13 (10-10) — Q1: (6-9) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 19 (59) Q1(A): (4-7) NET (51)
While I don’t think the Mountaineers will miss the tourney, they did make things a lot more interesting with their loss to Colorado yesterday. The major separation between them and teams like Indiana/San Diego St is they have 4 wins over top-20 teams, with 3 of those being away from home. That is likely going to be enough to carry them through, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a little closer than we think as the predictive metrics are not great and neither are the result based. It’s really just those massive wins keeping them afloat. They are sitting on the 10 line pretty firmly, and there doesn’t look to be as much bid stealing as last year, so I think with their 6 Q1 wins they should feel pretty safe right now to be in and avoiding Dayton. (3/15)
Xavier battled hard, and at times looked like they’d beat Marquette, but ultimately couldn’t bring it home in the closing stages. Eye test tells me they deserve to be in, but that’s not how this thing works. They are just 1-9 in Q1, but do have some solid Q2 wins over tourney teams UConn/Creighton. Right now I have them the first team out, with Texas/IU being the last 2 in, but honestly I could see 100 people splitting evenly if polled on those 3 teams. It’s razor thin, so it’ll be a nervy couple of days as to have a chance you have to have all the conference tourney’s be won by teams projected in right now. With the Mountain West taking up another bid, it looks even more dire for the Musketeers, as it’s tough to argue them over Texas/IU in my opinion given the lack of big time wins. We’ll see if the committee agrees, or if the American conference can make it even more of a longshot with a Memphis upset. (3/15)
Georgia dropped their chance to make this easy as they lost to Oklahoma last night. That leaves them just 9-12 in Q1/2 as they likely drift back close to the Dayton group. They have just the 4 Q1 wins with the wins over Florida, Kentucky and St. John’s carrying them right now. I think that group of wins will ultimately be enough, and I have them on the 10 line with a possible 9 seed out there depending where you look. I don’t think there’s enough chaos that can happen at this point to bounce them but I don’t want to assume I have them exactly where the committee does, so we’re holding on tight but with a fair amount of confidence. (3/15)
Oklahoma lost a tough one to Kentucky to end their SEC tourney but they did more than enough to secure their bid in my opinion. I don’t see how a team with 7 Q1 wins and as clean of a record outside of Q1 can miss the dance this year. There are just too many teams with worse resumé’s behind them. I actually have them above Georgia due to the volume of top wins but many folks have it swapped, so who knows specifically where they’d fall but I doubt it will be worse than a 10 seed, with a 9 very possible. Again, I’d like to lock but with how screwy the committee can get we’re going to hold off until we see it on Sunday. (3/14)
Arkansas lost to Ole Miss in dramatic fashion today, but thanks to losses by San Diego St/Xavier/Indiana they are solidly in at this point. I don’t think anyone out there has them out of the field, so it would take some major chaos to unfold with bid stealing for them not to get in at this point as they are most likely in the Last 4 Byes territory. Good for Cal and good for this team turning things around and grinding their way in. Things have gotten a little more testy with the Mountain West shakeup but I still have them ahead of the Dayton group, on the 10 seed line. I wouldn’t expect enough chaos to ensue to leave them out, but they’re below Oklahoma and Georgia per me, so it’s a little more nervy as we get through the homestretch.(3/15)
Well, the Commodores have made this interesting as we enter the homestretch, as the loss to Texas dropped them to just 9-12 in Q1/2, keeping them in the bubble conversations. I warned about their horrific non-con schedule that provided them with 0 notable wins being a problem, and I think now they’re being compared to these bubble teams it has caused them to drop quite a bit as they’ve lost 3 straight. Oklahoma and Arkansas simply have better resumé’s right now, and I’m not sure how many people are taking notice of that. That puts them up against the MW teams like Utah St/San Diego St fighting for the last bye to escape Dayton. Right now the big time wins over 5 projected tourney teams are keeping them in the bye territory, but they’re the last one right now with potential bid stealing to come from the American. I think they’re comfy but it wouldn’t shock me to see the committee put them in Dayton. (3/15)
Well, Texas did enough to at least make this a very interesting conversation, even after a loss to Tennessee yesterday. Personally, I think the team with 7 Q1 wins is going to get the nod over the teams with just 1, especially given how many chances Xavier/UNC had. Those are the 3 battling it out right now in my opinion, although some have Indiana out of the field as well, so maybe call it a 4 horse race for the final 2 spots. Give me the teams who have proven they can beat tourney caliber teams more than just a one off. I get the Q2 record argument, but in my opinion the committee has overlooked bad losses in favor of big time wins in the past and I think they do so again with Texas/Indiana getting in. Of course that could change if the bubble shrinks even more Sunday so watch Memphis closely. (3/15)
Utah St. is now in a precarious position, although I do think they’ve done enough to be worthy of being in the field. Their loss to Colorado St late last night shrunk the bubble by a spot as either the Rams or Boise St are going to earn a bid they likely wouldn’t have gotten on their own. The Aggies are clinging to just 2 Q1 wins @ St. Mary’s/San Diego St. Those also happen to be their only wins against the field, and with 3 Q2 losses I’m surprised so many have them in a bye position. That group of wins is not strong, and while the record is inflated it’s tough to argue them over the SEC/Big 12 teams I have ahead of them right now. I think they’re in Dayton pretty firmly, and probably still ahead of IU/Texas but my money would be on either of those 2 in that First 4 game that’s for sure. (3/15)
San Diego St: 20-9 (14-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 63 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (52)
The Aztecs just couldn’t make this one easy as the loss today to Boise St has likely destined them for Dayton. They will stay in the field on the back of a strong non-con showing, with wins over Creighton/Houston, but that last loss hurt a ton. They are 8-8 in Q1/2 with strong SOS numbers, so they’re in to me pretty easily as the top team in Dayton, as it would take 4 bid stealers to knock them out if I’m right. So far there’s only been 1, but I still have them in Dayton pretty safely, although you start getting into the metric arguments as they would be right there with IU as the worst predictives in the field if they make it. Xavier/UNC for example have 10+ average better, but ultimately I think the who you beat and where you beat them argument easily goes to the Aztecs so they should get in, but I’ve been wrong before. (3/15)
Boise lost in the title game which leaves them on the outside looking in to me. They do have a strong case to make, and maybe a stronger one than people would think with those wins over Clemson/St. Mary’s. The problem you see are the really bad losses, especially that Q4 loss but having 4 losses outside of Q1 is a clear negative these other teams don’t have. UNC has just 1, Xavier has 2 and IU has 0. They are right there don’t get me wrong, but ultimately I think the bad losses combined with the low volume of big time wins will leave them just on the outside. Also, we typically see metrics some into play when it’s this close, and among the group fighting for a spot Boise is the worst averaging a 50th ranking in predictive metrics. (3/16)
VCU has made it to the A-10 title game, which has made it very interesting if they were to lose. I would say they would be out and I’ll make my case for why, but there is a contingent out there who would have them in and make the A-10 a bid stealer. Now, let’s assume they lose today, that would make them 5-5 in Q2 and still leave them with just 1 win over a tourney team, Colorado St which has aged a little better with their late season run. Their entire argument would be metrics, which do look favorable with their 3 metric average being 30.66. We would be comparing them to IU/Texas/UNC/Xavier depending on who the committee has given the last 2 spots. All of those teams have at least 1 better win than VCU can offer up, with UNC having the worst case on wins. Texas, for example has beaten 7 tourney teams, with IU having just 2 but also 0 losses outside of Q1 to VCU’s 6 in this scenario. To me, if all you have over a team is predictive metrics, the committee is not going to put you in. If it’s razor thin the metrics can tip the scale, but it’s not close to me among that group fighting for the last spot, so I think a loss to George Mason today for VCU will leave them out of the field. (3/16)
UC Irvine losing in the Big West title game effectively means the two bid Big West dream is dead, as UC San Diego had a much better case than Irvine can offer up. They basically have 1 really solid win, @ UCSD. Their next best win is @ Northern Iowa, so essentially their entire case would be eye test, and you’d at least like to have predictive metrics on your side when you make that argument right? Well their average of the 3 metrics the committee will see is 80.33. There is just no way to rationalize them getting in at this point. (3/16)
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. The domination at the top of the sport continues, and if you are a long time reader you know I’ve pointed out that we have 4 teams that have separated themselves. Duke/Houston/Auburn/Florida are all standing out and should be the only teams discussed as “title favorites”. There are of course other good teams that could win it, but anyone outside of those 4 would be a big surprise, and as unpredictable as the tourney is viewed the winner has been one of the top-6 teams (Tennessee/Bama are 5-6) on Kenpom for 9 straight years and overall 17 of the last 19 years. Yes there are upsets, yes there will always be chaos, but at the end of the day it’s almost always one of the handful of great teams each year that cuts down the nets. So, we have that group and the rest of this is to figure out who we should trust to meet them later on in the tourney and give them a fight.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Duke, Houston and Florida remain Elite and look like the teams to beat in college basketball, along with Auburn who is the best offense in the country and right on the doorstep now defensively. As I said from the get go, we have 4 outstanding teams in the sport this year.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn is back to where they probably should be given how dominant they’ve been, and while they haven’t always shown up defensively they’ve done enough to clearly be the #1 overall seed and are a very trustworthy pick in March right now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Tennessee has finally pushed out of strong enough and into solid, although that’s not a huge needle mover it is nice to see them improving offensively after some big games from Chaz Lanier. The other 3 are mainstays around here and are still firmly a part of the 2nd tier of contenders behind the big 4.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
As expected we lost a couple of teams here after last week with both Purdue and Mizzou dropping off, but surprisingly we added Saint Mary’s who continues to dominate defensively out on the West Coast. Teams like Bama/Wisconsin/Gonzaga have been living here for a long time, and Texas Tech continues to flirt with both Solid and Wannabe as they have at times been great on either end and struggled on either end.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
Kentucky finally has some company in the Matador group again as Mizzou jumps up here after giving up 92 to a bad offensive team in Arkansas. It should also be noted that UK has improved from near 90th defensively to almost cracking the top-60. That is a significant improvement and for a team that can score so well finding a way to defend even at an average level would make them dangerous.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
Same group as last week here as Kansas fell further into Grinder territory with A&M barely sliding in. St. John’s is a common Final 4 pick I’m starting to hear, but around here we will be avoiding taking them into the 2nd weekend much less all the way to San Antonio. Although it should be noted Pitino has lead bad offenses on deep runs before, making up part of that 1.6% and 4.9%.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
Michigan fell way down offensively since we last met, but the team I want to highlight the most is Clemson as they are on the doorstep of Solid if they can just play some better D as we close out the regular season. They’ve proven with their win over Duke they can compete with the best, just have to find more consistency on D as we end the year.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We have teams here who are going in opposite directions, with Louisville still charging forward, nearing the Solid archetype at this point. Then there’s Marquette, who has fallen all the way from “Great” to “Vanilla”, and while they still are in the top-30 they’re barely holding on to relevancy. We also welcome VCU who is dominating the A-10 and finds themselves in the top-30 for the first time this year.
We are now 2 weeks away from the end of the regular season and just a few days away from March 1st, so it’s officially nut cutting time for every team on the bubble. It’s this time of year that Q1 chances are the most valuable currency in the sport and we are setting ourselves up for some massive matchups over the next 2 weeks between these bubble teams. We’ve narrowed the field just a bit as teams like K-State and Pitt have seen their paths close up, while the likes of Arkansas/Indiana have ascended thanks to big time Q1 dubs. The macro narrative of the mid-majors getting in over the struggling power conference teams is also still alive and well, as teams like Drake/VCU have set themselves up to have quite the argument if they fail to win their conference tourney. The good news about a weak bubble is that a big win from a team on the fringe could catapult them onto the right side of the things so every game carries a ton of weight. We’re diving deep into all of this and more this week, as we have very clear paths for each team as we hit the homestretch.
For those new here, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track,Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 55 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/24. Check out my current bracket projection here.
After yet another win for the Cards this week, at home vs Florida St, do I really think they could collapse and not make the tourney? 99% no, but there’s that 1% that’s still out there, and the remaining schedule is land mine after land mine that would blow giant holes in this ship. They have just the 4 Q1 wins right now, with just 1 over a top-25 team, which for a clean resumé like this is good, but start dropping bad ones and suddenly it doesn’t look so great against teams like Arkansas/Oklahoma/Baylor who all have that many wins or more and are teetering with no bad losses. I want to reiterate, I fully expect Louisville to continue playing really good basketball, and maybe even win out to finish the regular season 18-2 in the ACC, which is unbelievable. The reason they aren’t locked is because this is not about what I predict will happen (I’m a sucky gambler), it’s about what could happen, and the locks do not have a scenario where they could miss the tourney. Louisville still does, but this week it can be extinguished if they just take care of business. They go to Virginia Tech and then host a desperate Pitt team. Win both and we’re done, maybe even with just the Pitt win.
If we know one thing about this Wake program over the last couple of years it’s that they love to lose games down the stretch of the season they can’t afford to lose. Last week it was at home to Florida St, this week @ NC State. That’s now 2 non-Q1 losses which damages what was a super clean resumé, their strongest selling point as they have just 2 Q1 wins. This time last year they were 18-9 and proceeded to lose to sub-100 ranked Notre Dame and Georgia Tech to ultimately knock themselves out of tourney contention. The cycle may in fact continue. Of course, with this season’s weak bubble, they are very much still in the mix, most likely headed to Dayton as of today. It makes it much more dramatic though as they have just 1 meaningful game left prior to the ACC tourney, but it’s @ Duke. I expect a 3-1 finish that would leave them just 2-7 in Q1 which would have them directly on the cut line. They get to host Virginia and Notre Dame this week, absolute must-wins as they can’t afford to take on another Q3 loss. If they had 4 or 5 Q1 wins sure, but at this point they can’t take on any more water. We’ll see if they can stop shooting themselves in the foot.
The Tar Heels did what they had to do this week to stay in the conversation, beating up on NC State and Virginia at home in what amounted to 2 Q3/4 wins. It did nothing for the resumé but it kept them alive, which is still crazy to say given they are just 1-10 in Q1. At the end of the day it’s all going to come down to beating Duke to cap off the season, as they absolutely have to have that to pass these teams with multiple Q1 wins. Frankly, I would not want my season to hinge on beating this year’s Duke team but that’s the reality right now for UNC. They are first going to have to keep handling their business, with their toughest test remaining up next as they head to Florida St. It’s a Q2 game, and we just saw Clemson go to Tallahassee and beat them by nearly 30, so if you think you’re a tourney team it’s time to act like it. They host Miami after which is as easy a W as there is in the Power 5, so all urgency should be toward beating Florida St.
It’s the same old story with SMU, as they had yet another opportunity to beat a good team and got beat by double digits. Clemson came to Dallas and did what every other good team has done, and now we’re looking at a 20 win team that’s 11-5 in the ACC, top-40 in the NET, and has 0 Q1 wins. In my opinion not winning a single Q1 game is an at-large disqualifier, but it seems others are still heavily considering the Mustangs, including the esteemed Joe Lunardi who had them in his “First 4 Out” after Saturday’s games. I have them about the 15th team out, behind nearly every mid-major as well, as most of them have either at least 1 Q1 win or even more Q2 wins (VCU). Again, if I haven’t made it clear enough, I don’t think SMU belongs anywhere near the tourney as it stands, and with just Q2 road games as their best chances remaining I don’t see myself changing that stance. It would be unprecedented for a team with 0 Q1 wins to get in the field and even with a weak bubble there are plenty of teams who can at least say they’ve beaten a good team. The ACC tourney is still remaining of course, and they’ll need to win out prior to that to stay in the hunt.
Last week I laid out how difficult the finish to the season was going to be for the Illini, and after that 40 point blowout loss to Duke this team appears to be on the ropes. That haymaker followed a 21-point drubbing @ Wisconsin, so it’s safe to say Illinois isn’t playing its best basketball right now. HC Brad Underwood has been outspoken about the illness outbreak they’ve endured, and that certainly could have something to do with this 3-game losing streak, but regardless it’s ugly right now. The good news is they finish the season with 2 of 3 at home, and as we laid out last week a 2-3 finish to the season would be enough to keep them comfortably in the field. 2 of those 3 losses are in the bag, so now we’re needing a 2-1 finish that would rack up home wins over Iowa and Purdue. A trip to Ann Arbor is smashed in between, but so long as they’re 19-12 and 10-10 in the Big 10 I won’t be worried about them making the dance, especially with a 7th Q1 win. Anything short of that and it could get dicey, although the weakness on the bubble would likely keep them in, but I would not want that kind of predicament. Just win your home games and it’s all going to be okay.
In true bubble team fashion the Cornhuskers got blown out @ Penn St this week to keep themselves down here in weeds of the bubble. They are still 9-9 in Q1/2 which is far better than the true bubble teams right now, but with a couple of tricky ones still left on the schedule it would have been nice to have that win over a Penn St team that had just 4 league wins prior. The good news for Nebraska is they have a massive opportunity to bounce back and really separate themselves again from those that are in the bubble crosshairs as they host Michigan tonight. A win over the Wolverines would give them their 6th Q1 overall and would put them more in the Illinois territory on the 8-9 seed line. That would be pretty comfortable with just 3 games left, especially since they host Minnesota later in the week which should also be a win. Losing to Michigan wouldn’t put them in danger but it would drop them further into the muck, and other teams are starting to rack up more and more Q1 wins. This is their last shot at a Q1 at home, with a trip to Ohio St next week their only other shot. Sitting at 5-10 in Q1 is not where you want to be, so Monday night is critical for the Huskers to feel comfortable come Selection Sunday.
With their at-large hopes on life support the Hoosiers came up with one of their biggest wins of the season taking down rival Purdue at home to give themselves a realistic chance to get in the dance. They came out in the 2nd half of that game down 12 and played like their lives depended on it, and credit to them for dominating in a game they couldn’t afford to lose. They are now up to 4 Q1 wins, and with 0 bad losses and the 2 Q1(A) wins have a legitimate tourney resumé now. They are in the field as of today if it were up to me, with a trip to Dayton likely in store. The good news for them is the season isn’t over and they have more chances to improve their stock over the next 2 weeks. They next host Penn St who they absolutely have to beat giving them a 4th Q2 win, and that’s followed by a trip to Washington who is last place in the Big 10. In other words, this needs to be a 2-0 week which would put them pretty solidly in by improving to a 9-11 record in Q1/2. After all the missed expectations they still have a chance to at least get in the dance, but it would be pretty on par for a Woodson team to have a letdown after this big win, so the hay certainly isn’t in the barn yet.
It’s red alert time in Columbus right now as the Buckeyes have lost 3 straight games, 2 at home and are now right on the cut line. This week it was an embarrassing blowout at the hands of Northwestern, at home, in what might be the worst loss of the week and they then went to UCLA and lost by 8. They still have those 3 elite wins over Kentucky/Maryland/Purdue but with 4 losses in their last 5 games it’s hard to have confidence they can turn this around. They have 3 left, as they’re staying in LA to play USC in their lone game this week. I’m not sure that 17-14 is going to be good enough, so I think they need to finish 3-0 to find themselves in the field entering the Big 10 tourney. There’s not really much to say right now for this group, you gotta just win. At one point a few weeks ago it was just win your home games, now that’s out the window and every game is critical. A loss @ USC and they might be cooked, so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Buckeyes.
I think this week’s 34 point loss @ BYU was officially rock bottom for this Kansas team, as we had been highlighting their struggles for the last few weeks, but that was the worst performance I’ve seen from a Kansas team maybe in my entire life. They looked uninterested, like they didn’t even care they were getting their asses handed to them. Whatever happened in the days following clearly got their attention though, and while beating Oklahoma St this year is no prize (Q3 win) doing so by 32 while finally dominating the glass like they should (+20 rebounds) gives you some hope a fire was lit by Self. We are going to find out over the next 2 weeks if they really did get the message, as they finish the season with 3 straight games against 3 of the heavyweights in the Big 12. They first have to go to Colorado who just beat Baylor, where they can try and fix their road woes (just 3-7 on the road). Then the gauntlet begins, as they host Texas Tech before going to Houston and then hosting Arizona to finish the season. That’s the stretch that will tell us if they can fulfill their potential or if it’s going to be more of the same: a lifeless team full of unmet expectations.
If you thought last week was big for the Cougars it pales in comparison to what they were able to accomplish this week. They not only annihilated Kansas for their 3rd Q1 win, they also went on the road and beat Arizona to notch their 4th such win and first of the Q1(A) variety. It wasn’t without drama though, as they trailed by 1 with time ticking down and drew a controversial foul call (pathetically bad call) that allowed them to knock down 2 FT’s and win. Of course, they deserve credit for getting to that position on the road against such a good team, and ultimately came away with what could be the win that gets them in as that was the signature W they were missing. While the NCSOS is horrific I think they’ve done plenty to make up for it at this point and are firmly in the field, which I think is widely agreed upon. They’re now 8-2 in their last 10 games as Kevin Young has finally pushed the right buttons in an impressive year 1 as a college HC. Up next they go to Arizona St and then host WVU, so two easier games on paper than they’ve had but not ones you can just take for granted.
The disaster scenario I laid out for Baylor last week is exactly what transpired, as they not only lost at home to Arizona but they followed that up with a 2 point loss @ Colorado. Jayden Nunn did miss the Colorado game, bringing them up to 2 missing guys who have started 20 games. While Nunn should be back next game, Ojianwuna won’t be coming back, and without him they’re just 1-3 and struggling with a lack of depth inside. 3 of their final 4 games are very tough, and it’s tough to imagine a team getting in at just 16-14 this year, even with a bad bubble. They have to go to Cincy/TCU and host Houston. They need to find a way to grab one of those along with the home game vs Oklahoma St, because if they don’t they would fall to just 9-14 in Q1/2. While the volume of wins is still impressive, the losses would have them right around the cut line. It may still be enough to get in, but finishing the season just 4-8 does not bode well. Up next is the trip to Cincy, one with massive bubble implications. They then return home for the easy one vs Oklahoma St, so this week has to be at least a 1-1 split.
West Virginia: 16-11 (7-9) — Q1: (5-10) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 11 (60) Q1(A): (4-6) NET (48)
Thanks to a monster game from rising SO Amani Hansberry, the Mountaineers kept this train on the tracks with a win at home over Cincy that they desperately needed. They still dropped to just 3-7 over their last 10 games with the loss to Texas Tech on Saturday, but as we’ve laid out those 4 Q1(A) wins are keeping them afloat. The game plan remains the same to close out the season, as they have to at least win their home games to stay in good position. They host TCU/UCF with road trips to BYU/Utah, a relatively easy stretch all things considered. If they can go 3-1 it’s a wrap, but even 2-2 with the home wins would likely be enough, but anything short of that will leave them in a very peculiar situation. Let us not forget they have wins over Arizona/Iowa St/Gonzaga/Kansas, a group of wins no bubble team can hang with. They have to just avoid implosion and those wins should keep them in the field, even if it’s one of the last few in. Tuesday night’s game vs TCU therefore is massive for them, as well as TCU, so for those into watching games with massive bubble implications that’s one of the biggest of the week.
Cincy is barely clinging on to its at-large life right now, and they blew a massive chance to improve their situation when they lost @ WVU last week. They were able to bounce back and beat TCU at home, but with so few opportunities remaining that was a tough 10th Q1 loss to take. They’re now just 1-10 in Q1, with 0 Q1(A) victories, a tough sell. The NCSOS is also very bad, so there’s really not a ton going here for the Bearcats, but as I’ve said repeatedly the bubble is very weak, and with a chance to knock off Baylor at home this week they are still alive. The issue they have is Baylor is 30th right now, so they may actually bump them down if they beat them and it’ll wind up a Q2 win, although that could change as we go forward. It’s a steep hill to climb however you slice it, but best case they have wins over BYU/Baylor that both count as Q1 heading into the Big 12 tourney. They’ll also likely add a road loss to Houston on Saturday, but that’s okay, they just need to finish 3-1 to stay alive.
The win of the week on the bubble might have to go to TCU, as they were able to knock off a top-10 Texas Tech team to pick up their signature win of the season. They of course followed that up with a loss @ Cincy, but still the week overall was a success as they nabbed their 2nd Q1(A) win and moved themselves up the bubble a good amount. They are still just 7-12 in Q1/2 though, so there is still work to be done as they have to make up for what was a very rough start to the season. So, we have to keep our eyes forward with the Frogs as they need to keep building, and they have a chance to do so as they head to Morgantown on Tuesday. Win that and they might be in the field, while a loss will put pressure on them to close the regular season 3-0. They host UCF on Saturday, so worse case they go 1-1 and still are firmly on the outside looking in. They still host Baylor and go to Colorado, so a 3-1 finish would leave them 9-13 in Q1/2 which would have them firmly in the conversation. 3-1 is the bare minimum though, as it might actually take a 4-0 finish to the season to get them over the hump. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Frogs.
Creighton bounced back just like they needed to on Sunday after dropping 2 games last week. Georgetown isn’t good but it always feels good to get a double digit conference win, and seeing Kalkbrenner healthy after last weeks tweak of the ankle was icing on the cake. I’m not too worried about this resumé but they of course still need to handle their business down the stretch as bad losses could quickly send them into the danger zone. They have just 1 Q1 game left and it’s on Saturday @ Xavier, so that’s going to be a tough one but one they certainly could win to lock this thing up. They will need to beat DePaul at home, which they surely will, and then a win on the road will make this an open and shut case. Losing to Xavier though would drop them below .500 in Q1, although still likely safe it casts a tiny amount of doubt. They still go to Seton Hall who knocked off UConn last week, so nothing is guaranteed, but they are as close as you can get.
Dan Hurley and Co. are still stumbling and bumbling through this season, as they were on the ropes in the game vs Villanova before storming back from 14 down to win late, and then got smoked by St. John’s. The resumé is still not overly strong, with just a 9-8 record in Q1/2, but that 4-1 Q1(A) record is what is carrying them at this point. They don’t sound overly impressive but still road wins over Texas, Marquette and Creighton plus that neutral win over the Zags are what they are hanging their hat on, and it’s plenty this year to have them safely on that 8/9 seed line. The rest of the schedule presents a great opportunity to get hot, as they have 3 home games and only travel to a down Providence. I fully expect a 4-0 finish to the season, although hosting Marquette certainly isn’t a guaranteed win, that is one that they should win if anyone is going to have any sort of expectations of them going on a run in March. This week is just a home game vs Georgetown and then that trip to Providence, so I’m looking for a 2-0 week out of the Huskies.
A couple of weeks ago I laid out the path for Xavier, which was to win their last 7 games. It sounded like asking a lot, but after 2 more wins this past week they’re 4-0 to start that stretch, with the biggest of them all coming this week as they host Creighton. Overall they are now 9-3 over their last 12 games, so they’re playing good basketball and if I had to purely put teams in based on eye test they would be in my field. The issue is they played a rough non-con and the tough games they did play they lost. They’ve gotten better since though, as the win @ Marquette indicates, so at this point it’s just about volume as 1 Q1 win doesn’t stack up well against the other bubble teams. The Creighton win unfortunately would only be Q2 since it’s at home, and the road trip to Butler right now is just outside of Q1 as well. So, at the end of the day if they win out they would be 8-10 in Q1/2, with only 1 Q1 win, which I’m starting to doubt would be enough to get them in prior to the Big East tourney. If they can do some work there though they might have a shot, but it’s starting to look bleak for Xavier. Either way they still have to win out, so all eyes on that matchup with Creighton on Saturday.
Mississippi St has found a way to navigate this 8 game stretch of Q1 games and keep themselves in a good position, and while they’ve gone just 3-4 it has gotten them to 7 Q1 wins and on the doorstep of locking. The latest win over Texas A&M gave them that 7th Q1 win, and while the loss @ Oklahoma was tough it still leaves them .500 in Q1. With a trip to Bama left to finish off this stretch I imagine they drop to 3-5, but they get a reprieve by hosting LSU after that one. That’s the one they need to win for me to feel confident in locking, as they host Texas and then go to Arkansas to finish things off. Lose at home to LSU and I can’t have any confidence the last 2 games are going to go well, and then 7-11 in the SEC is on the table. That could leave them in trouble, but those 7 Q1 wins would likely still be plenty to get them in, but it would be too close for comfort for sure. I don’t expect worse case scenario to play out here, and I won’t be worried at all if they go to Bama and get smoked. It’s all about winning at home to close things out, and if they can get to 20 wins and 8 in the SEC it’s a wrap.
Ole Miss: 19-8 (8-6) — Q1: (5-8) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 16 (77) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (26)
Well, that’s now back-to-back losses for Ole Miss and they’re looking down the barrel of a gun with the 4 game stretch they have upcoming. They were down by as many as 19 against Vandy on Saturday but actually battled back to take a lead with 5 minutes left. That was short lived though as Vandy took back control and ultimately won by 5. That leaves the Rebels with just 5 Q1 wins and a trip to Auburn up next, with games against Florida/Tennessee still around the corner. The one saving grace for them right now is the Oklahoma home game on Saturday this week, as they absolutely have to have that one. They are looking at being 5-11 in Q1 if they lose to Auburn/Tennessee/Florida down the stretch, so moving to 6-0 in Q2 SHOULD be enough to keep them in the field. Losing to the Sooners and making it 6 straight losses to finish the regular season would absolutely put them down in the bubble muck after being as high as a 5 seed. I just want to see them beat Oklahoma, and if they truly want to feel comfy they could beat the Vols at home next week, but at bare minimum they need to beat the Sooners on Saturday.
With their backs against the wall the Sooners were able to claw out a massive Q1 win over Mississippi St on Saturday to keep themselves afloat. As predicted they lost to Florida earlier in the week to extend their losing streak to 5 games, so that game on Saturday meant everything for their chances to punch a ticket to the dance. The job is nowhere close to done though as they still have 4 more Q1 games to close out the season so that was just step 1. They have UK/Mizzou at home and trips to Ole Miss/Texas on the docket still, and I would guess they need to go at least 2-2 to feel comfy entering the SEC tourney. That would get them to 7-10 in Q1 which should be good enough with this year’s bubble, but anything short of that is going to put them squarely in the Last 4 in/First 4 out discussions yet again. So, for any Sooners fans out there you’re looking for 2 more wins, and 1 at bare minimum as finishing 5-12 in Q1 doesn’t feel like enough, especially when that would include a backdrop of 9 losses out of 10 to close out the season. That is an NIT team, no way around it. Win your home games and there’s no doubt. It starts Wednesday night as UK comes to Norman.
That was a brutal L to take for the Longhorns on Saturday as they got waxed in South Carolina giving the Gamecocks their 1st SEC win. Tre Johnson was fantastic again with 29 points but the rest of the team was horrific, especially defensively. Now the pressure is ramped up as they are just 7-11 in Q1/2 and have just 2 Q1 chances left, both on the road. They do host Georgia/Oklahoma and those are absolute must-wins, but they might also have to find a way to pick up a road win. If they only win their home games to close it out they’ll be 4-10 in Q1 and 5-3 in Q2, which will make it very close and possibly leave them on the outside looking in. It would all depend on what the rest of the bubble has done at that point, but that’s not a place you want to be in. This week they head to Arkansas, in a matchup that has massive bubble implications, before hosting Georgia. At bare minimum they need to split the week, as an 0-2 week would knock them well out of the field. Their backs are officially against the wall, so it’s time this supremely talented team locks in or they’ll be NIT bound.
Vandy is following the script right now, as they lost their 3rd straight game as expected but bounced back with a massive win vs Ole Miss to add their 3rd Q1 win. There’s a lot of noise right now about Pat Kelsey at Louisville and Dusty May at Michigan, and it’s well deserved, but you can definitely argue what Mark Byington has done here is far more impressive, as Vandy doesn’t have the history of success those other programs do. Overall they had to just win their home games the rest of the way and they’re off to a great start, but the work is not done yet. The 3 Q1 wins are still low in total, and the NCSOS is as bad as it gets on the bubble, so they had much ground to make up entering the SEC. They have another tough week upcoming with a trip to A&M up next and then they host a very good Mizzou team. Again, they just have to win at home, and that Mizzou win would add a 4th Q1 win and put them in a great spot. Failing to secure that one will put them in a precarious position, so that game on Saturday night is critical for the Commodores as it’s the last Q1 chance at home they’ll have this year.
Every game is critical when you’re fighting for your life on the bubble, but that win over Mizzou felt like the most important game of the weekend for any bubble team. The Hogs had been playing better and better but it felt like they were falling just short, so for that locker room to pick up a giant Q1 win at home felt like some validation for those guys and above all it nudged them likely back into the field, although it’s razor thin. They have to keep it rolling this week as they have the chance to clean up the worst part of their resumé, that 1-2 Q2 record. They first host Texas and then head to South Carolina, 2 testy games but ones that could flip that to a 3-2 record in Q2 and overall push them to 7-11 in Q1/2. It’s a weird resumé right now, because the win volume is the lowest of any team close to consideration, but the 4 Q1(A) wins are by far the most impressive set of wins any team near the cut line can bring to the table. That’s why these 2 Q2 games are so important, because it takes away that argument against you and helps to solidify the fact that it’s not just a couple games where you looked good. You have to be able to stack up against the competition and a 2-0 week is going to help them do just that.
The slide continues, as expected, as they lost @ Auburn to now make it losses in 9 of the last 11 for the Dawgs. While they fought hard and kept it closer than most expected, it amounts to an 11th Q1 loss as the situation for Georgia is looking extremely bleak. They need to at least go 3-1 the rest of the way to stay alive, but 4-0 might actually be what it takes to get them in before the SEC tourney. They host Florida this week, a game they haven’t proven to be good enough to win but you can’t replicate desperation, so if they can play with their hair on fire and catch Florida napping they could pull it off. They’ll hope they can, because they head to Texas after that, and an 0-2 week would knock them out of at-large consideration. No matter how you slice it they have to find a way to win one of these Q1 games this week at least, as they’re the last Q1 chances of the season and 2-13 is not going to be good enough. There’s not much left to say, they’re on life support and have to try and beat a top-5 team to stay alive. Good luck.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
New Mexico: 21-5 (14-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-1) SOS: 79 (58) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (42)
The Lobos got waxed @ Boise St in their lone game since we last met, and while that dropped them to 3-2 in Q1 they still are in perfectly fine shape as it stands. It was a bit unsettling to see them get beat so easily, although they made it look a little better by trimming it from 19 to a final of an 8 point spread. While they didn’t capitalize on the chance to make this an open and shut case, a 14-2 Mountain West team isn’t going to ever be too nervous. They have another tough road test this week as they head to a tough San Diego St team who is more desperate for a win, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re just 3-3 in Q1 next week. A win though and we can lock them up, as that would push them to 12-3 in Q1/2. After that game the schedule is very soft, with only a trip to Nevada offering any sort of challenge before the Mountain West tourney. A 3-1 finish would keep them comfortably in still, and frankly losing twice probably wouldn’t knock them out either, although it would push them pretty close to Dayton so finishing strong is important to stay around that 9 seed line.
This was a big week for Utah St to get back on track after losing to New Mexico yet again, so to see them get a big win over San Diego St was a sigh of relief. They are in a good position, with the road win @ St. Mary’s being the highlight and a 10-4 Q1/2 record being impressive enough this year even with a low volume of Q1 wins. They do have to close the season with a bit of a tough stretch as they have to play both Boise St and Colorado St on the road, both Q1 chances, so they could look much worse if they go 0-2 this week. Finding a way to pick one of those road wins up is the path to locking in my opinion, as I don’t see a team this year that’s 4-2 in Q1 missing out on the dance. I mean we’re talking about VCU/UC Irvine with just 1 Q1 win having shots at at-large spots so they should be fine. Falling to 3-3 at least makes it nerve wracking, although I would still anticipate them getting in, however close it may end up being. Big week for the Aggies’ comfortability on Selection Sunday.
Teetering:
San Diego St: 17-7 (11-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 60 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (49)
The road loss to Utah St was a missed opportunity but ultimately shouldn’t be any cause for concern. As I said last week this resumé is being carried by the non-con SOS which happens to feature massive W’s over Houston/Creighton. Those wins are better than any wins New Mexico or Utah St have, which helps them make up for the bad metrics and loss to UNLV. It also helps them compete with these bubble teams from the power conferences as they can come to the table and say we beat Houston, top that. Not many can, so if they can just finish the season strong, namely beating New Mexico this week, then I think they’ll be in comfortably as the committee should look favorably on that top-10 NCSOS and those elite wins over strong tourney teams. A 4-0 finish to the season would leave them 9-6 in Q1/2 and make them a lock to be in the tourney, anything less likely leaves them somewhat in doubt, although at 8-7 they likely would still be in. Either way, just beat New Mexico and make it simple for everyone.
Well the Boise late season run we discussed last week is off and running as they picked up massive wins over New Mexico (Q2) and @ Nevada (Q1) last week. That pushed them from just 4 Q1/2 wins to 6 to get them much closer to the cut line than they were a week ago. This train could keep on humming, as reeling off 6 in a row was the path we suggested and they’re 2 for 2 so far. The next challenge is hosting Utah St, a Q2 game but one they must have, as those 2 Q3 losses are a black stain that they need every win possible to make up for. After that are 2 easy games against Fresno and Air Force before they finish off the season hosting Colorado St. If they get to 22-8 by winning 6 straight games they would sit at 8-6 in Q1/2 games and would have a very interesting argument to make. Could that St. Mary’s win be enough? Would the Q3 losses keep them below the power conference teams who have 10+ losses but mostly/all in Q1? I would think yes to the latter, especially with how the committee treated the Mountain West last year, but regardless they would be right in the mix and that’s all you can ask for considering where they were in late January at just 13-7.
Well the Zags continue to disappoint on the court as they lost another Q1 chance, this time at home to St. Mary’s. The Gaels didn’t allow the Zags to lead from start to finish, maintaining control throughout. Somehow, is spite of everything we’ve seen, Gonzaga has convinced the computers they are a unanimous top-15 team. Never mind their best win is over a now 30th ranked Baylor team…the Zags are just the latest shining example of the limitations of the computer rankings, in my humble opinion. Because they beat Pepperdine and Portland by 45 and St. Mary’s only beat them by 25 we’re going to value the Zags higher, even though in 2 matchups the Gaels won both. Make it make sense. I understand there are complexities to the metrics beyond that oversimplification, but at some point we need to start weighing how you perform against top competition a little higher. I also understand Gonzaga’s losses are mostly close and at the wire, but is there not a measurable skillset to winning close games? I digress, but I needed to get that out somewhere, and the metrics do seem to matter to seeding and they’re keeping Gonzaga afloat right now so it is relevant. To finish the season the Zags have 2 road Q1 games, so they can still make this a much easier sell, and prove the metrics right, by beating to sub-50 ranked teams (Santa Clara/San Fran) on the road to get to 4 Q1 wins. Anything less than that and they’ll be still firmly on the bubble entering the WCC tourney as right now they’re just 6-8 in Q1/2 games.
Outside Looking In:
San Fran: 21-7 (12-4) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (12-0) SOS: 102 (182) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (61)
We’ve finally reached the week where the Dons’ season will be decided, as they get a Q2 road game and then a massive Q1 game vs Gonzaga to finish the regular season. They have to win both of those games, and frankly I’m still not sold that will be enough at just 5-7 in Q1/2, but it gives them a fighting chance entering the WCC tourney. They would be able to say they beat 2 top-20 NET teams (SMC/Zags) and then would have a Q1(A) win per the NET with that Gonzaga win. It would at least put them ahead of the other mid-majors who are fighting for spots, as they certainly can’t tout that level of win, and they don’t have the Q3 losses that many of them are carrying around either. The volume isn’t going to be there to compete with the power conference teams, but if teams like Indiana/UNC/Xavier/Cincy continue to miss out on their chances they may be able to squeak in there. It’s a very narrow path, that needs some help from others, but I do think it’s still possible. They have to go 2-0 this week though, no questions asked.
I wanted to lock Memphis in this week but the aggregate at Bracket Matrix has them lower than I do, so we’re going to hold on to them even though they have a fantastic resumé right now. I think folks are discounting what it means for a team from a mid-major conference to schedule a top-5 non-con schedule and then go out and perform the way Memphis did. I understand it’s the volume over efficiency argument, but to go out and get wins over teams from the Big 10 (Michigan St), SEC (Ole Miss/Mizzou), Big East (UConn) and ACC (Clemson) is insanely impressive. I know they’ve lost a couple of stinkers but I think the committee is going to overlook those given the level of wins they racked up in the non-conference. I mean people have them below St. Mary’s right now, and while I love the Gaels they don’t have anywhere near that level of wins. They’re the opposite of Gonzaga in the fact that they play with their food and don’t annihilate bad teams so the metrics don’t love them, but wins are wins in March and they have proven they can beat good teams. That’s my argument for Memphis being a 5 or 6 seed instead the 8 they’re projected right now. We’ll see what happens but so long as they don’t pick up another bad loss or 2 I think they’re sitting pretty.
Drake bounced back this week after taking that bad loss last week, picking up 2 wins including a Q2 win @ Northern Iowa in OT. That win was massive as it pushed them to 5-1 in Q1/2, and while K-State falling off and dropping to a Q2 win hurts they still are in the best position in this group of mid-majors thanks to 2 wins over power conference teams. They have 2 easy games to close out the regular season so they should finish up 25-3 and have a very impressive resumé all things considered. Obviously they would like to have those Q3 losses back, and more opportunities to pick up quality wins, but given the schedule and difficulty of winning consistently they have nothing to hang their heads about. I for one just hope they win the MVC tourney so we don’t have to worry about it, but if they do lose it’s going to be very interesting to see what the committee does with a resumé that includes just 1 Q1 win and a NCSOS near 250. Historically that doesn’t bode well, but with this year’s weak bubble I do think it’s possible. Have to finish strong though.
VCU had as good a week as they could’ve asked for as they throttled UMass and then knocked off George Mason to re-take the lead in the A-10. They’ve now ripped off 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 13, so they’re clearly playing very good basketball, this resumé is just so weak. I don’t see how the committee would put in a team with 0 Q1 wins, especially considering overall their best win is over 62nd ranked Colorado St. I have them where I have them because other prognosticators disagree, including the “esteemed” Joe Lunardi who has them a part of his First 4 Out PRIOR to the George Mason win. I have them on the outside looking in, and while the committee could make a hard pivot and give teams more credit for Q2 wins than they’ve historically done, that would also bode well for other bubble teams like Cincy/Xavier who also happen to have a Q1 win on to their name. Just like Drake I hope VCU makes it easy and just wins the A-10 tourney, but I genuinely don’t think a team with 0 top-50 wins is going to get in the dance on resumé alone. I reserve the right to be wrong however.
UC San Diego has separated themselves from UC Irvine, mostly due to the Anteaters still losing conference games. They now have the more legit chance to get an at-large if they’re able to win out as they have the Utah St win that is Q1(A) and fewer bad losses as well. The key is going to be that Q2 win over CS Northridge this week to give them a 2nd Q2 win, and while I still don’t think it would be enough it’ll at least be enough to be firmly in the conversation at 4-2 in Q1/2. The volume is super low, but they can at least come to the table with an elite win as per the quadrant system, something these other mid-majors can’t say. The SOS numbers are not good, but hey they’re an out of nowhere team from the Big West it’s tough to expect them to be scheduling like Dayton or Memphis. I would argue they are right there with VCU given that big win, and maybe you value the Q2 wins a lot more than Q3 for VCU in comparison but I think a tourney team should be winning those games regardless. Give me the team that has proven they can beat another tourney team, and that’s the Tritons. Hopefully they just win the conference tourney though so it’s nothing we have to worry about.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. It’s pretty evident by the data as well as just watching the games that we have 4 teams that have separated themselves at this point. Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn very clearly standout, and the domination at the top of the sport is something we haven’t seen in some time. You have to go all the way back to the 2015 season, in my opinion, to see this level of top heavy play in college basketball. That year we had undefeated Kentucky (“Elite”) that lost in the Final 4 to Wisconsin, who was very similar to Auburn as the #1 offense in the country and flirting around top-15 defensively. You also had Duke who won it all that year and then Arizona/Villanova (“Great”) as dominant teams with an overall efficiency north of 33. Arizona lost to Wisconsin in the Elite 8 and then Nova bounced out early in round 2 in the big upset that year. That was basically the only thing that didn’t go according to plan, with 3 of the 5 dominant teams getting to the Final 4. I am starting to expect a similar type of tourney, with now those 4 elite teams rating higher than everyone last year but UConn. Every year people say there’s more and more parity, the tourney is less and less predictable, and maybe beyond those top 4 it will be this year, but it’s just a fact we haven’t seen this level of efficiency and domination from a group of teams like we have this year since 2015. Obviously there are a couple of weeks left to play until the dance, but at this point you’d be foolish to pick a national champion that isn’t 1 of those 4 teams. Also, in reference to what I talked about last week, we lost a couple of teams from the trustworthy categories already so it’s already leveling out at 15 teams.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Duke, Houston and Florida remain Elite and look like the teams to beat in college basketball, along with Auburn who is the best offense in the country and right on the doorstep now defensively. As I said from the get go, we have 4 outstanding teams in the sport this year.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn is back to where they probably should be given how dominant they’ve been, and while they haven’t always shown up defensively they’ve done enough to clearly be the #1 overall seed and are a very trustworthy pick in March right now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Auburn drops to solid once again, as they’ve oscillated up and down the ranks from Elite all the way down to Solid. Defensively they are just not consistent enough to join that group, but they have a huge chance @ Alabama this weekend to improve on that and get a big win. The rest of this group are similar names, with Arizona and Maryland still of note as they are hot and improving.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
Alabama, Mizzou and Purdue are all barely clinging to their inclusion here, with Bama sliding consistently thanks to their inability to get stops. Purdue has gone from near solid ranking to almost falling to Wannabe, but Mizzou has clawed their way here for the first time, so they are going in the opposite direction. Gonzaga/Wisconsin/Tennessee are the stalwarts here, with Tennessee being the team I’d be most confident in.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
We’re down to just the Wildcats, who have fallen from grace after picking up massive wins earlier in the season. Teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Purdue and Gonzaga have all found themselves here at some point but have made improvements defensively lately, but they’re certainly capable of finishing here if they slip up down the stretch.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
We have added to the party here with some more bad offenses drifting down to the Grinder archetype. St. John’s of course is still here, but we’ve added A&M and Kansas, who have both been very near to here for a while but have finally crossed over into dangerous territory. This often happens as the conference season moves forward, as weaknesses are attacked. I would expect at least A&M to remain here, with Kansas having a chance to bounce back with all the talent they have.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We have teams here who are going in opposite directions, with Louisville still charging forward, nearing the Solid archetype at this point. Then there’s Marquette, who has fallen all the way from “Great” to “Vanilla”, and while they still are in the top-30 they’re barely holding on to relevancy.
It’s time we officially start calling this the worst bubble in the history of mankind, and while I’m all for the bubble races I have to level with you, the reader, this is the least compelling bubble I can remember. However, allow me to try and make it interesting: We have team after team missing out on opportunities, with big time brands like UNC/Indiana having such bad resumés they may lose out to the likes of Drake/UC San Diego. Which begs the question, will the committee finally throw the mid-majors a bone? It feels like year after year we see a 25+ win mid-major team flounder in the conference tourney and get sent to the NIT because they just didn’t pick up enough Q1 wins to keep up with the power conference schedules. However, this year we have teams like those big brands I just mentioned who have 1 or 2 such wins battling for the last spots, will the UC Irvines or George Masons of the world finally have a shot? I for one would rather watch teams such as those get a shot at an Arkansas or Vandy, than watch UNC/Indiana/SMU/Cincy lose yet another Q1 game in Dayton. At some point, after 10 Q1 losses they’ve proven who they are, or better yet who they aren’t. I’m not convinced they will do what most fans would like them to, but I’m holding out hope, and have added even more of these mid-majors to the watch as I’m about over watching teams like USC/UCF/Arizona St/Pitt blow chance after chance and try and convince myself they still have a shot. Give me the VCU and UC Irvine. Make this the year of the mid-major. I digress.
For those new here, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track,Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 61 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/17. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Clemson was absolutely dominant this week, avoiding what was a natural letdown after the massive Duke win they obliterated both UNC and Florida St this week to notch 2 more Q2 wins. They are now 10-4 in Q1/2 games, very impressive, but what is keeping them from being a better seed and locked up here is most of those wins are of the Q2 variety. They are obviously going to be puffing their chest out with that win over Duke on the resumé, but they certainly can’t afford to go on a major losing streak as we finish out the regular season. The way they are playing there’s no reason to think that’s even a possibility but I know better than to think there’s zero chance. They only play once this week, heading to an extremely desperate SMU team, so they could fall to just 3-3 in Q1 with zero chances left until the ACC tourney. It’s definitely not a must-win, but a loss to SMU does put a little heat on them to at least finish the ACC season 4-0 after that, as all 4 are Q3 or worse and I would not want to add more bad losses if I were them.
Pat Kelsey is doing a tremendous job right now as he took the Cards on the road and picked up 2 tricky road wins to keep this thing humming. While NC State and Notre Dame aren’t world beaters those were two big time wins to keep themselves from falling down into any sort of danger zone. They are looking really good right now with just 5 games to play, and while they can’t be locked with just 4 Q1 wins the schedule is so weak thanks to this pathetic ACC that it’s hard to imagine they miss the dance. They have 4 of their last 5 at home and just 1 true test with Pitt coming in, although they are in a rough spot right now, they’ll still be desperate for that W. This week it’s just 1 home game against Florida St, one you have to win but if you’re not awake at the wheel you can certainly drop, just ask Wake Forest. They’re better than Wake though and I fully expect this train to keep on rolling in what is right up there with Mizzou for turnaround of the season. Pat Kelsey for COY, Louisville is back.
Wake got caught with their pants down this week as they dropped an inexplicable one at home to Florida St, in a game they lead by 16 with 8 minutes to play. It may have been the proverbial kick in the nuts they needed, as they traveled to SMU and played as good a game as they had all season, securing a massive Q1 win. Similar to Clemson last week, although on a much smaller scale, they ended up winning the week as that 2nd Q1 win was critical, and while they took a small hit with their first loss outside of Q1 I think the good ultimately outweighed the bad. Unfortunately though, if they just could’ve held on to that late 2nd half lead they would be in a much better position, but with just 5 games to go they would likely be heading to Dayton as it stands. They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, as 4-1 is very realistic, with a trip to Duke being the 1 likely loss there. If they finish 23-8 and 15-5 in the ACC I think they’ll be in , especially with how weak this year’s bubble is. Either way, a trip to NC State up next is a gotta have it type game, as they’ve won just 3 ACC games this year. Can’t get caught off guard again.
Thanks to the bubble being absolute dog doo doo this year we’re still talking about UNC at just 1-10 in Q1 as potential at-large contenders. Their 10th Q1 loss came this week in blowout fashion as they got dismantled by Clemson on the road, and while that’s not a bad loss for anyone it’s pretty clear the Tar Heels are just mid, as they absolutely cannot beat a good team. They did bounce back from that embarrassing loss to squeak by Syracuse in what amounted to a Q3 win, doing absolutely nothing for them. In spite of all of that pretty much everywhere you look they are going to be in the “First 4 Out”/”Next 4 out” conversations, pretty wild. What that means is if they can go on a run by winning their next 5 games they’ll setup a season finale with Duke in Chapel Hill that could be them playing for their tourney lives. They’d be 20-11 at that point, with a 7-10 Q1/2 record, and adding that Duke win would likely be just what they needed to slip their way into this year’s tourney. It’s amazing how bad the bubble situation is, but this is a real possibility right now, and while I doubt they can pull it off, someone has to take these final few at-large spots.
After yet another Q1 loss Pitt is pretty far out of this thing, but as we’ve said the bubble this year is incredibly weak so hope is somehow still alive. They bounced back from the loss @ SMU to beat Miami at home, which stopped a 4 game losing streak as well. They have what should be another easy home win with Syracuse on deck, but the game next weekend @ Notre Dame is the tricky must-win that could knock them out for good. If they can win that and move to 4-1 in Q2 though they’d still be hanging on, with a trip to Louisville their last meaningful chance on the 1st of March. They are sitting somewhere around the 12th-15th team out, right there with SMU, so winning out is essentially their only path, with some wins in the ACC tourney also going to be necessary. We’re still a long way from that though, as this week’s trip to South Bend is going to tell us a lot about Pitt’s chances at running the table and keeping themselves in this.
With another blowout loss against a good team, this time Wake Forest at home (Q2) SMU is falling further and further out of contention. They still have 0 Q1 wins, but now they also have multiple losses outside of Q1, not to mention the brutal SOS numbers. Their saving grace will have to be this coming weekend when Clemson comes to Dallas, as that is pretty solidly a Q1 opportunity and a chance for them to truly put themselves in contention. They first have to go to Notre Dame, a team that is inconsistent but fully capable of beating them. A win in South Bend would push them to 6-2 in Q2, and following that up with a Q1 win would get them to 7-6 in Q1/2, which in this year’s bubble would likely be good enough to get them in. This is a major nut up or shut up week for SMU, as they simply aren’t going to get in without some more quality wins, and they’re running out of chances.
Finding a way to pull off a road win over Indiana was exactly what the Bruins needed as they are now completely back after a bit of a midseason dip in January. They’re 8-1 over their last 9, with the lone lost this past week @ Illinois in a tough battle, so I have much more confidence in this team than I did a month ago. They are on the doorstep of locking as I don’t see a team with 7 Q1 losses missing out on the dance but if they lose out it would be way too hairy for me to feel comfy, especially with bid stealers still to come. Give me one more win and we can lock this one up, and they have the perfect spot to do so with Minnesota coming to Pauley Pavillion, with another winnable home game after with Ohio St coming in. I fully expect a 2-0 week and locking them up, although even avoiding the bad loss to Minnesota would be enough for me, that’s how close they are to locking. So, most likely our last time speaking on the Bruins, credit to Cronin for getting his guys attention and turning this ship around as most have forgotten they lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 the end of December into January. Credit where credit is due.
Maryland now joins UCLA on the doorstep of locking after a massive road win over Nebraska gave them their 6th Q1 win, and they cleaned the week up with a home drubbing of Iowa. They don’t have the level of top wins that the teams who are locked do just yet, and that’s why they find themselves on the 6-7 seed line even with the record that they have. They have just the 2 elite wins over Wisconsin/Illinois and that non-con SOS is horrendous so that is all keeping them down the seed list for the moment. They have just 2 Q1 chances remaining, with a home game vs Sparty next week being their best chance to make this an open and shut case. This week they only have 1 game at home vs USC, one they should win rather easily to continue their hot streak as they’re now 7-1 over their last 8 games. One could argue they’re the hottest team in the country, right up there with UCLA at least, so the continuation of that is going to keep them right on schedule.
Alright we can all take a breath as the Ducks finally stopped the bleeding and ended their 5 game losing streak with 2 home wins this week to get themselves back on track. Granted it was Northwestern/Rutgers, but when you’ve lost 6 out of 7 you’re just happy with wins regardless of opponent. We were starting to wonder if they could be the complete collapse this year, but they did what they had to do to likely avoid that, but the hay isn’t fully in the barn just yet as they have a few more tests the rest of the way. Ultimately, their 4 Q1(A) wins, including 3 top-15 wins, are going to carry them through most likely, but their seeding has taken a major hit over the past few weeks. It’s not going to be easier this week as they hit the road again going to Iowa and Wisconsin. The latter is almost certainly a loss as the Badgers are playing incredible basketball, so if they can find a way to beat the Hawkeyes that will go a long way toward locking this one up. I might not get fully there with the Iowa win but they’ll be very close, as 7 Q1 wins is unlikely to miss the dance.
We could be headed towards a danger zone with Illinois, and while the 7th Q1 win vs UCLA was massive they blew a lead to Michigan St at home and dropped one they really needed on Saturday. The metrics love them and they have those 7 wins, but 1 is barely holding on with Ohio St at 30th, and they finish with such a difficult stretch that a 1-4 finish is very realistic. They have 1 should be win with Iowa coming to Champaign, but for example this week they head to Wisconsin and then they play Duke in NYC in a random non-con game. That feels like an 0-2 week that would drop them to 17-11 and 7-9 in Q1. They would still be in at that point, but man it would be way closer to the cut line than people ever thought, as many had them as a flyer pick to win the Big 10 (not 5 star of course, we much more astutely predicted IU). At the end of the day this is a young team that has been thrown together after losing almost their entire roster, so you knew it would be tough. The way they make this comfortable, short of beating Duke which would obviously lock them up, is to beat Purdue at home to finish the season. That’s the path to not having to worry for Illini fans, beat Iowa and Purdue at home and the other 3 losses (Wisconsin/Duke/Michigan) won’t kill you. It’s a brutal schedule to end it, but even a 2-3 finish will be good enough.
Nebraska’s was on fire until Maryland came to town and dumped cold water on them, but impressively they bounced back and went to Northwestern and picked up a huge W. If you didn’t dig any deeper you’d think they played very well in that one, but they were down by as much as 20 until they locked in and clawed all the way back to win by 4. I’m assuming Hoiberg’s message was a frantic, desperate plea, as they could not afford to drop that one in Chicago. Coming back provided them their 6th Q1 win which separated them pretty solidly from the tru cut line, where a team like Ohio St went spiraling toward. Quietly Nebraska has themselves positioned in a place I didn’t think possible just a couple of weeks ago as they were losing 6 straight games, so credit to that team and Hoiberg for locking in and improving their play. They can realistically finish 3-2 the rest of the way, with home games vs Minnesota/Iowa as very winnable and then they also go to Penn St and host Michigan so winning one of those 2 would probably lock this in. Obviously going like 1-4 would make this thing tough to predict, but I feel like even just those 2 easy home games could be enough now that they are up to 6 Q1 wins.
I’ve been saying the Buckeyes needed to just win their home games and they’d be safe, and they did so to start the week by beating Washington. Unfortunately, they fell to Michigan at home Sunday and now are in a more hairy situation as we hit the homestretch. They have 3 of their last 5 on the road, with a trip to LA being 2 of those games with UCLA/USC. If they finish just 17-14 they will be just 4-11 in Q1 but also 5-3 in Q2, that will put them squarely in the crosshairs of the bubble, with their fate really hinging on how the rest of the bubble performs. If they can find a way to steal one road game, with a trip to Indiana also in there, then I would feel much more confident in them. The home games are Northwestern this week, and Nebraska later on, so those should both be wins, it’s about stealing a road game now that they lost to Michigan. I still think they are in as of now, but I’m not liking their chances if they finish the regular season just 4-11 in Q1. The next time we meet they should have at least beaten Northwestern to keep this thing on the tracks, with a loss to UCLA most likely on Sunday which will leave them in about the same spot next week.
It was a wild week for the Hoosier but ultimately it was good enough to keep them alive, for now, as they picked up a massive win @ Michigan St only to come home and lose another close one to UCLA. It’s wild that a team that is just 2-11 in Q1 games is still alive, but that’s the 2025 bubble for you, and with still many chances at nabbing big wins left they are still right in the thick of this thing. That’s not considering they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games though, so it’s hard to have confidence in them, but when they’re at their best they’re good enough to beat Sparty in East Lansing, so you can’t fully give up on them just yet. They only play once this week with Purdue coming to Bloomington in the rematch for this rivalry, after IU took Purdue to the brink in Mackey Arena earlier this month. Despite all of the losses, and their coach announcing his retirement at the end of the season, they have a realistic chance to finish the season 4-1 and go dancing. Do I have fait that will happen? Not really, but they host Purdue/Penn St/Ohio St and then a road game @ Washington. Those are all winnable and they need them all, as I don’t think 18-13 would be enough, although they’d still be alive likely. They’ve shown us they aren’t just going to roll over and die, now we’ll see how much fight they really have as they try and save face down the stretch.
I can only imagine what’s going through Bill Self’s mind as he tries to get this ultra talented team to stop losing games they shouldn’t. After winning a ho-hum game at Allen Fieldhouse vs Colorado they dropped yet another Big 12 game @ Utah, their 6th conference loss of the season after being the #1 team preseason. After last year’s 8 Big 12 losses, the most under Self, he loaded up on talent via the portal and was seemingly out for vengeance. It hasn’t gone to plan, and now the Jayhawks are playing as unispired as I’ve ever seen under Self, which has to be the most aggravating thing. He’s gone from winning with grinders like Perry Ellis and Frank Mason to trying to get some semblance of pride/effort out of guys like AJ Storr and Hunter Dickinson. And I know Hunter puts up numbers, but when you’re getting out-rebounded by 10 by Utah and your star 7-footer has just 6 rebounds while the other team has 16 offensive rebounds, something is very wrong. They are running out of time to right the ship, and while they have plenty of wins to be safely in the tourney, they’re not a top tier contender, and that’s a sad state for such a great program. And to top it all off they head to Provo next to face a hot BYU team. Good luck.
As I said last week the loss to Houston was inevitable, but the game with WVU was going to be the real important one, and they found a way to get it done. It wasn’t without trial though, as the Mountaineers took them to OT, but ultimately Baylor picked up the W and stayed on course to end up around the 8-9 seed line. Of course there’s still time to improve their positioning, or worsen it, and this week they’ll have the chances to do both, with Arizona coming to Waco and then a trip to Colorado. This could be a wild swing of a week, as a 2-0 sweep would put them in fantastic position, with likely no need to sweat the rest of the way, but if they drop both games, which is entirely possible, then they would likely start sliding toward the last 4 byes territory. The 5 Q1 wins are going to likely keep them safe for a while, but with road trips to Cincy/TCU still on deck and having to host Houston I would not want to be losing to Colorado. Huge variety in outcome possible, but they can also stay right where they are by splitting, so who knows where they’ll be this time next week.
West Virginia: 15-10 (6-8) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 12 (59) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (44)
The Mountaineers continue to play a dangerous game, as we’ve noted over the past few weeks, as they continue to lose games while hanging on to 4 Q1(A) wins. Thankfully this year the bubble isn’t very strong, but they’ve now gone just 2-6 over their last 8 games, with losses at home to BYU and then @ Baylor this week continuing their slide. Again, they have 4 elite wins (3 over top-10 NET teams) something no bubble teams this year can compete with, so it feels like they can’t slide all the way out of this thing, but at what point do the losses become insurmountable? They aren’t there yet, and the schedule is going to soften up just a bit, with a home game with Cincy up next and then after a trip to Texas Tech they host TCU. They need to go 2-1 in that stretch, with a loss @ Tech not going to hurt them obviously. It will start to get very interesting if they can’t handle their business at home though, as at some point those elite wins just won’t be enough if they continue to lose. Let’s not forget Cincy is playing pretty good ball right now, so this thing could get a whole lot more interesting by the next time we meet.
What an absolutely gigantic week for BYU and their hopes for an at-large, as they went on the road and beat West Virginia to pick up a 2nd Q1 win and followed that up with a win over a white hot K-State team to go from just 5-8 in Q1/2 games to 7-8. That put them in the field for me and just about everyone else, with the consensus likely having them in Dayton or one of the last 4 byes best case, as they’re now 6-2 over their last 8 and starting to cement themselves as a tourney team. They have a wounded animal coming to Provo in the form of Kansas, but as we know that is often the most dangerous animal, so while it presents a huge opportunity they need to lock in. If they drop that one they then head to Arizona, so all the good they’ve done could get quickly undone if they drop both of these and fall to just 2-8 in Q1. Unlike West Virginia and Baylor they have zero elite wins, so getting a 3rd Q1 win in their last home Q1 opportunity feels ultra important. I’m not going to say it’s a must-win, as this bubble is horrendous, but it would go a long way to feeling confident BYU is going to be dancing.
Cincy did what they had to do to stay on track this week, but their resumé took a hit, along with the rest of the Big 12, with the fall of UCF out to 75th in the NET. They are dangerously close to losing their lone Q1 win which would drop them to an ugly 0-9. That’s obviously not going to get it done, and I said last week their path was to beat Baylor at home later this year and steal a road game. They failed to win @ Iowa St, hard to ask for, but this week presents them with their best chance to get one, @ WVU. I don’t think they can get in without it, and while the weakness of the bubble may keep them alive, a win over the Mountaineers would make their case so much stronger. In theory UCF could crawl back into the top-75 and a potential win over Baylor could give them 2 Q1 wins, but I wouldn’t want to have to count on a UCF team that has lost 6 in a row. They need to take matters into their own hands and it starts with a win in Morgantown and then a home W over TCU. Do that and they might be in the field this time next week, a remarkable turnaround after just a couple of weeks ago they appeared to be down for the count.
TCU had a rough start to the year, and even at the end of January sat at just 10-10 as Jamie Dixon tried to mesh a new group of transfers and freshmen. They are led by senior guard Noah Reynolds and have completely turned a corner over the last 5 games, going 4-1 with the lone loss @ Iowa St. We always have some late chargers that come out of nowhere, and this year the Big 12 is providing them, and given the state of the bubble it’s easier than ever to go on a late season run and get in. While they haven’t made up for all the losses they took on to start the season, they have massive chances this week with Texas Tech coming to Fort Worth, as well as a trip to Cincy which both give them shots at Q1 wins. Right now they are hanging their hat on 2 road wins, Baylor/Arizona St, but a home win over Texas Tech would give them that marquee Q1(A) win that could catapult them right into the thick of the bubble conversations. They’re still a ways away, but with 4 of their last 6 being Q1 they are going to have the chances to work themselves into legitimate consideration.
The winning streak marched on to begin the week, as they extended it to 6 in a row, including 4 Q1 wins as they took down Arizona at home. That streak was finally broken on Saturday night though as they got handled by BYU in Provo. That loss drops them to just 6-10 in Q1/2, and while they have 3 elite wins they are still going to need to add to this resumé to get themselves into the dance. Lucky for them the schedule lightens up going forward, as they go to Utah and then host Arizona St. Those of course aren’t easy games, both qualifying as Q2, but they are games you have to have when you’re trying to make up for what was a very poor start to the season. Those 2 wins would pull them to .500 in Q2 which would be huge as that 2-4 record is disgusting and cannot fly for an at-large team. They have done so well to claw themselves back into the conversation after not even being close to on the radar when they were just 7-11. It would be a shame for it to go down in flames with a loss this week, so here’s hoping they lock in and get 2 huge wins this week.
Creighton’s 9 game winning streak came to a screeching halt as they not only lost at home to UConn but dropped a 2nd in a row @ St. John’s as well. Both of those games were hard fought and down to the wire, but ultimately it keeps them on the bubble and in somewhat of a pressure spot as they can’t afford to drop bad ones the rest of the way in order to stay on track. They have an easy finish to the season, and frankly probably feel fortunate to just have gotten out of New York with Kalkbrenner healthy. He went down hard in the 2nd half of that game and it looked bad, but he came back after just tweaking his ankle. They now get to return home and have some rest and then play Georgetown on Sunday. That’s just what the doctor ordered for a team that just lost back-to-back games and has a banged up star player. I think they rest up and get right in that matchup with the Hoyas, and with just 1 Q1 game left the resumé kind of is what it is right now, and it’s pretty solid so they should feel good but not lockable.
UConn has probably the most unique resumé on the watch, and that was furthered this week as they picked up a massive win @ Creighton and then lost @ Seton Hall. I thought 1-1 was the most likely scenario for the week, but man did I not think it would come in the way that it did. Ultimately it brought the Huskies to 4-0 in Q1(A) games, and dropped them to 3-2 in Q3, a bizarre resumé to say the least. It continues to be all about their uncanny ability to play to the level of their opponent seemingly every night. They certainly aren’t in any danger of missing the tourney as it stands, with those 4 elite wins carrying them, but they continue to limit how good of a seed they can get, with an 8-9 seed looking most likely even with all of those great wins. They play Villanova at home and then @ St. John’s this week, and while I’m going to say 1-1 is the likely outcome I refuse to predict which game they’ll win, as both will likely be close given their history. Regardless of what happens, the bubble is so bad they will have to take on a lot of water before they start to feel like they’re in trouble.
This week was just what the doctor ordered for Xavier, winning @ Providence and then at home vs DePaul. It didn’t do a ton for them but it did add a 6th Q2 win and more importantly they didn’t drop another one outside of Q1 and made their record a little prettier. They are still clinging to that win @ Marquette as their marquee win but as we’ve laid out in the past they are going to need to find one more at least as we go forward. This week presents 2 more can’t lose games, as they host Butler and then head to Seton Hall. Gotta have them both, as the Creighton home game is on deck after that, and dropping one outside of Q1/2 would be a death blow to an already subpar resumé. The macro view of this team is that they’re 7-3 in their last 10 games, clearly turning a corner and playing tourney quality ball, this year at least, and as long as they can handle their business this week they’ll be setup to win their way in with a win over Creighton, although not guaranteed.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Ole Miss: 19-7 (8-5) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 17 (81) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (25)
The Rebels took an unfortunate L this week at home to their rival Mississippi St, dropping them to 5-7 in Q1. That game followed a win @ S. Carolina, but the loss at home by 10 is pretty alarming, as they got out-rebounded by 12 and trailed the entire 2nd half. It was a disappointing result and one that kept them from getting locked, but it certainly doesn’t put them in any danger. The schedule doesn’t let up though, as is the reality for all of these SEC teams, as they head to Vandy this week in their lone game before we meet again. Drop that one and then they head to Auburn, with Tennessee and Florida both still to come as well. There’s a world where this Ole Miss team goes just 1-4 the rest of the way, and while I think that’ll still be enough it certainly isn’t a situation I’m comfortable locking just yet, as an 0-5 finish and a first round exit in the SEC tourney could make this quite the situation. So many ways it can go, but I would be getting a bit antsy as they head to Nashville.
Mizzou continues to be the biggest surprise in the SEC as they’ve moved up to 15th in the NET after picking up a 4th Q1(A) win and an overall 5th Q1 win with their win @ Georgia. That win followed a home blowout of Oklahoma in what was a huge bounce back week after an 0-2 week last week. They are now in fantastic position, and really just a win or 2 away from locking this thing up. The reason for the timid approach to locking is they finish with 5 of their final 6 being Q1, so there’s still a world where they’re just 5-11 in Q1, and while that should still be good enough with this year’s crop of bubble teams it certainly isn’t sure enough to lock just yet. I’d like to see them get one more, and with Bama coming to Columbia this week they have the perfect opportunity to make this one an open and shut case. The trip to Arkansas after that is dangerous though, so if Bama bounces back from their Auburn loss and beats them, they could easily go 0-2 and be looking a bit shaky the next time we meet.
This was an important week for Mississippi St, and while they failed to beat Florida at home they were able to go on the road and beat rival Ole Miss to complete the season sweep and add a 6th Q1 win. That helps to put them in a comfortable position as they look to finish up this brutal stretch of 8 straight Q1 games. They’ve gone 2-3 so far, with A&M coming to Starkville next followed by a trip to Oklahoma later in the week, with another road game @ Bama rounding it out. With those 2 road games on deck the home tilt with the Aggies feels very important, as stringing another 3 losses in a row would put them in a precarious position. They of course could win @ Oklahoma, who by no means have been playing great ball, but still taking care of business at home is the most ideal scenario. We’re holding off just to make sure they don’t completely collapse, as they’re just 4-6 in their last 10 games, not exactly an inspiring run. Overall, I expect to see the Bulldogs in March, just not going to guarantee it just yet. We’ll see how they fare this week.
I’m not sure what’s going on with this Oklahoma program under Porter Moser but the late season collapse is becoming a problem. They started the season 13-0, with wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan who are all solid tourney teams. They’ve gone just 3-9 since SEC play started, with the most recent loss to LSU at HOME the most embarrassing of them all. They now are clinging to an at-large bid, thanks to those non-con victories, but with 6 straight Q1 games to come it is increasingly looking like the wheels are going to fall off of this thing. If you can’t beat LSU at home I’m not sure what you can do at this point, and they next have to go to Florida before they host Mississippi St. I’m not seeing a path to the tourney that doesn’t include the win over Mississippi St, as dropping that one would bring them to 6 straight losses (assuming an L @ Florida) and have leave them hosting UK and going to Mizzou on life support. So, I’m calling that one a must-win, as the loss to Florida feels inevitable, so if you see Oklahoma lose to State on Saturday you can bet the Sooners will be best case looking at Dayton, and potentially out of the field entirely. What a fall from grace.
We said last week they had to find a way to pull off 1 of their tough home games this week and they did just that, knocking off Kentucky on Saturday night after getting waxed by Bama earlier in the week. They had to do it without Kaluma, but freshman Tre Johnson was worth the price of admission as he dropped 32, and with the help of Tramon Mark’s 26 willed Texas to the W. That win gave them their 4th Q1 win and put them pretty confidently in the field as it stands right now, although they’re in that mix of Last 4 byes – Last 4 In so they can’t just mail it in there is still work to be done. They have just 1 game this week, @ South Carolina, one that you absolutely have to have but one that bubble teams like Texas can struggle to secure. Big picture I’m looking for a 3-2 finish for them to stay on the right side of things, as that would move them to 9-12 in Q1/2 which should be good enough this year to get in. That would allow for losses @ Arkansas/Miss St and then home wins over Georgia/Oklahoma in addition to the win over the Gamecocks. It can happen in another order of course but that’s the cleanest way for them to get it done, we’ll see if they can make it easy.
The key for the Commodores is to not panic after this week, as they played hard and while they lost 2 games it was to Auburn and Tennessee, nothing to hang your head about. The path to the tourney is still clear and ahead of them, as they still have 3 home games, 2 of which will be Q1. They get one of those this coming Saturday with Ole Miss coming to Nashville, and while they will likely be entering that game on a 3 game losing streak, it’s possible they go to Kentucky and upset the Wildcats. They almost did that to the Vols this past week so it’s not out of the question by any means, but expecting them to go into Rupp and win is not realistic. The goal for them should be to just win their home games the rest of the way, as that would get them to 4 Q1 wins and 10 Q1/2 wins overall. That should be enough to get them in, especially with no bad losses and likely at least a 2nd Q1(A) win. The path is there and very realistic, and it would be the 2nd most shocking result in the SEC this year as Mark Byington has done an unbelievable job here.
The Hogs are still fighting for their tournament lives, and while they’ve been playing much better basketball over the last couple of weeks they ultimately are still just 4-10 in Q1/2 games. That of course is bouyed a bit by the fact 3 of those wins are Q1(A), something the committee values highly, it’s still not good enough. This past week didn’t help that record, as they beat LSU (Q3) and then lost @ Texas A&M. The path remains the same as it has been, winning their home games and also beating S. Carolina at their place, which would put them 19-12 and double their Q1/2 wins to 8. That would be good enough by my estimation to have them in the field entering the SEC tourney. It starts this week, after a trip to Auburn that won’t be enjoyable, they get to host Mizzou. The Tigers are playing very good basketball but Arkansas simply has to have it. If they fall to just 4-12 in Q1/2 they would fall behind a lot of teams I would think. I am willing to call that game a must-win, and while it’s possible I suppose they claw their way in still with a loss to Mizzou I don’t like their odds. So, the playbook is simple, beat Mizzou on Saturday.
Well the Dawgs are officially in a free fall as they’ve gone just 2-8 over their last 10 games and find themselves on the brink. I would argue they should be the first team out, others appear to have them in still, but either way they are the very definition of Teetering. This past week included a tough loss @ A&M, but the more frustrating one was at home to Mizzou as they were up 3 at the half and lost by 13. I understand that they have wins over St. John’s and Kentucky, but at this point I just don’t think they are good enough to be a tourney team. You could argue others would rack up this many losses if they had to continuously play top-20 teams, and that’s a good point, but most of their losses to top teams are by double figures. They are just too young and inexperienced, and I think that is going to keep them from going on a run. However, that’s just my opinion, and they have 1 more chance at home to prove me wrong. It won’t come this week though, as their lone game this week is @ Auburn. With that said I can’t imagine they are in a better position come next week.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
New Mexico: 21-4 (14-1) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-1) SOS: 90 (63) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (37)
New Mexico is now in a great spot as they added another massive win over Utah St on Sunday to complete the season sweep and move themselves to 11-2 in Q1/2 games. That’s uber impressive, and does more than enough to make up for the 2 very bad losses. The negative is they don’t have the elite wins that the power conference teams have, but the non-con win over UCLA is going to be what they point to as evidence they belong in conversations with those teams. That is what is keeping them down in the 8-9 seed range, but ultimately with all of those Q2 wins you can’t ignore it, as so many teams below them have .500 records in Q2, so it’s pretty obvious they belong below the Lobos even if the Q1 volume is lower. I think they’re in a safe position right now, but the Mountain West got hammered on seeding last year so I will not be locking anyone up for an at-large given those teams last year all had 6+ Q1 wins and still barely got in. This week they have another opportunity to add a notch in their belt with a trip to Boise St representing a 5th Q1 game. That would push them as close to locking as you can get in this conference for me.
After the sweep by New Mexico the Aggies are now pretty solidly behind the Lobos and are sliding down more toward San Diego St. They have the win @ St. Mary’s that is their saving grace, but still with their best power 5 win being Iowa you could argue the resumé is worse than the Aztecs due to a lack of quality wins. That makes the home game vs those very Aztecs this weekend all the more compelling as they could sweep SDSU with a win there and give themselves yet another Q2 win. They only have 2 more Q1 chances with trips to Boise St and Colorado St left, and those are going to be critical as entering the conference tourney at just 3-3 in Q1 is not going to have them feeling all that great. At some point the rest of the Mountain West is going to start scheduling like San Diego St, but until then it’s going to be life on the bubble every year, even for the teams who are dominating league play. I think they’re good enough, especially this year with how down the bubble is, but they need this win vs San Diego St this weekend to further their cause.
San Diego St: 16-6 (10-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 63 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (50)
San Diego St got back on track this week, going 2-0 and adding another Q1/2 win over Boise St at home. This resumé is being carried by the non-con SOS which also features wins over Houston/Creighton, which are aging like fine wine. Those wins are better than any wins New Mexico or Utah St have, which helps them make up for the bad metrics and loss to UNLV. Overall they are now 7-5 in Q1/2 and still have 2 big time matchups with Utah St/UNM, giving them 2 more chances to add to that total. So long as they don’t pick up any additional bad losses I’m confident the Aztecs are going to be in the field, especially with how they scheduled in the non-con. This year’s bubble is just too bad to leave a team out with wins over Houston/Creighton, as many other mid-major schools will be in contention and certainly don’t have the wins they do. This week they get an easy dub with Fresno St at home and then head to Utah St in a massive clash. A win there is obviously huge, but a loss won’t sink their ship by any means. It’s all about limiting any damage the rest of the way and then beating New Mexico at home.
Any other year the Broncos would simply be nowhere close to the bubble, but as I’ve repeatedly stated the bubble this year is horrendous and if you are looking at some projections Boise St is right in this thing. I honestly am not sure how, with 2 quality wins really over St. Mary’s (lowkey the Gaels are carrying the Mountain West right now) and Clemson that is enough to qualify you for the bubble in 2025. 4-7 in Q1/2 is usually laughable, but here we are with 4 more Q1/2 games on the schedule they could realistically push to 8-7 or 7-8 in those and be right in the mix. This week will be critical as they host New Mexico and then head to Nevada. A 2-0 week would absolutely push them up into somewhat realistic consideration, especially since they have those 2 wins over tournament teams, so at 6-7 they’d have an argument, especially if the power conference teams that are in the mix continue to blow every opportunity presented to them. I have my doubts on this one, but the path is there thanks to the schedule remaining and simply just not having other options.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Saint Mary’s: 22-4 (13-1) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 91 (84) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (20)
The Gaels continued their war path on the WCC as the still have a stranglehold on the regular season championship. They are simply just a good basketball team and should be heavily favored in all but 1 of their games the rest of the way, the rematch @ Gonzaga. That is going to be must watch TV, but it ultimately won’t knock them out of the field if they lose it, so we’re really just hoping to avoid taking on damage from bad losses the rest of the way. That being said it feels pretty solid, and while they could of course drop some that we don’t expect, that’s not really who they are, as they defend well and traditionally always tear through the bottom half of this conference. I would expect that to continue, and even if they lose @ Gonzaga they will remain well above the danger zone, so it’s all about avoiding the land mines as we close out the season.
Gonzaga is just not what we’re used to seeing out of Mark Few and co. but they have 2 good wins over Baylor/San Diego St, who also happen to be down a peg this year from what they usually are. Those wins are good enough to keep them in the field, mostly thanks to the computers also loving them and having them in the top-10. In no world is this team top-10, but the computers say it so it must be true right? They’re 47th in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), so while they may look great to the metrics the results are not so great, and to me they’re barely in the field right now and should be feeling desperate for big time wins. This week they finally get their chance to improve their situation as they host St. Mary’s as they try and notch a 3rd Q1 win. They first head to Wazzu which would also give them a Q2 win, so they could wind up 7-7 in Q1/2 after this week and feel a whole lot better this time next week if they handle business. They also finish with 2 Q1 road games next week, so a lot can be done to put the Zags in a better spot over the next 2 weeks, so as we’ve said for a couple of weeks the season starts now for Gonzaga.
Outside Looking In:
San Fran: 20-7 (11-4) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (12-0) SOS: 93 (171) Q1(A): (0-2) NET (60)
Well this week went as scheduled for the Dons, losing at Gonzaga but bouncing back and beating San Diego pretty convincingly. I say as scheduled because I have laid out the path for them for a while, and it is still open to them, with a trip to Oregon St and then the massive one at home vs Gonzaga. They have just 1 game before that critical back-to-back to close the season, at home vs Pacific, so the opportunity almost certainly will be there for them still. If they are able to pick up those 2 wins they will move to 23-7 with a 5-7 record in Q1/2. It’s not a guarantee that they get in with that record, but with 2 Q1 wins they certainly would have a good argument, especially with how weak this year’s bubble is. They would be hoping the teams from the SEC like Georgia/Vandy/Arkansas all flounder, and bid stealers would be a disaster. For this week they just have to handle business against Pacific so they can focus their attention to next week, one of the biggest in recent program history.
Memphis gave themselves a ton of wiggle room thanks to playing the 5th strongest non-con schedule and taking full advantage of their opportunities. Unfortunately they fell asleep at the wheel this week and dropped a 3rd Q3 game @ Wichita St week. That was the thing they had to avoid, as their schedule is just land mine after land mine and they finally took some damage. They were flirting with a 5 seed, and now they’re spiraling toward a 6 or even 7, although I think that strong NCSOS is going to carry them further than people think. The wins over Michigan St/Clemson/Mizzou/Ole Miss/UConn are wildly impressive so I think they hold at a 6 for now but they really need to lock in. They are not really going to be challenged the rest of the way, as there isn’t a top-100 team on the schedule until a potential conference tourney rematch with North Texas. Penny has to get the message across that these games matter, and I can see that being difficult as it would be easy to feel like they proved themselves already.
That was a tough L to take for Drake as they lost to Bradley at home and now have 3 losses outside of Q1. Due to the bubble being horrific I’ve changed my tune a bit and I think Drake has a solid shot at an at-large, but they absolutely cannot take anymore losses. Drake fans also have to be massive Vandy/K-State fans, as those are the shining stars on the resumé. They need the Commodores to continue to pick up wins in the SEC to keep that win there, and they need to just keep on winning games in the MVC. If they win out it’ll be very interesting where they sit, but with how bad these teams are fighting for spots I just can’t see the justification for leaving a 4-loss Drake team out. Hopefully they just win the damn thing and we don’t have to mess with it, but either way any loss the rest of the way would be devastating.
VCU seems to be getting attention as a potential at-large team, and while they do have an overall 6-4 Q1/2 record after winning @ George Washington this week, I feel like having just 1 Q1 win is not enough. There are others that disagree though, and if they run the table the rest of the way they undoubtedly would be getting discussed. A source I like to reference for an objective look at this is HoopsHD, so shoutout him, and he has them as the 17th team out right now. That is a calculation that ended up top-10 last year. So, all the VCU fans out there, it’s not looking great, and it’s really due to the horrific non-con schedule and lack of Q1 wins. They have 0 Q1 opportunities left on the schedule, so I really don’t see how they could get in with just 1 Q1 win, but again, they’ll certainly get discussed. Last year it took 2 Q1 wins to get in, and with the way the committee treated teams with bad SOS numbers last year I just don’t see it. However, I am allowed to be wrong, and after that road win over Dayton it’s clear VCU is the team to beat, although George Mason is coming on strong. Just keep winning, that’s all they can do.
George Mason: 20-5 (12-1) — Q1: (1-2) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (8-1) SOS: 129 (177) Q1(A): (0-2) NET (63)
Just like the rest of these mid-major resumé’s it’s slim pickens as you look at this one, with their best win being @ Dayton which is barely qualifying as Q1. To their credit they did play both Duke and Marquette, but got blown out in both games so not a great thing to point to. They have 3 top-100 wins, again not great, but as I’ve said with the other mid-majors it would be nice to see them get their shot at one of these middling power conference teams in Dayton. The big matchup in the A10 is upcoming this Saturday when they travel to VCU. That would give them a 2nd Q1 win and a major edge over VCU resumé wise. A loss though would keep them pretty solidly out of it in my estimation, with zero chances left after that to pick up a quality win. It’s like the same story with each of these, but the lack of Q1 chances is going to be their undoing.
With their win over UC Irvine, to enact their revenge, they now have a better argument in my opinion than the Anteaters. They have a massive win @ Utah St that UC Irvine can’t compete with, and while they have fewer Q2 wins they have a chance to add one later when they travel to Cal St Northridge in late February. I still think either way one of these teams is going to have to win the conference tourney to get in, but they at least still deserve to be in the conversation, especially with that Q1(A) win. Again, as I’ll continue to say with all of these low major teams, they don’t do themselves any favors with the scheduling, as they surely could try and schedule some top teams from the mid-major conferences or something at least. To the Tritons credit they did at least have JMU and Toledo on the schedule, they just happened to have down seasons, but still it’s always going to be about major wins and if you want to have a chance at an at-large it’s going to be tough to compete with SEC/Big 10 teams who are playing 15 or more Q1 games to your 2 or 3. Even McNeese was able to land 5 Q1/2 games, which at least gave them more of a fighting chance, even though they failed to cash in. Either way, the Tritons need to win out and hope the rest of the bubble flounders.
The Anteaters deserve to be in the conversation given how horrible the power conference bubble teams have been this year. It’s not because they have an amazing resumé by any means but they’ve been a consistently solid team this year and are 4-2 in Q1/2 games, so that’s something. I probably don’t think they should get in at this point, but with more carnage from these other bubble teams and 6 more regular season wins from Irvine and they’d at least have an argument. I don’t think the reps on the committee from the power conferences would let this happen, but I know fans are going to be clamoring to at least see the loser of the Big West title game, assuming it’s Irvine/San Diego get an opportunity. I don’t disagree personally but in sticking with my effort to predict what the committee will do I’m not confident. They do only have the win @ UC San Diego so it’s a tough sell with only 2 top-100 wins.
5-STAR Bracketology 