For those of you new here, Week 1 will give you a full breakdown of what we’re doing.

Welcome back to another week of this journey to track the top teams in the country and how they stack up compared to teams of the past, from an analytical standpoint. What I’m going to address this week are the “notches” in the Wannabe category that had UNC fans upset last week, with Nebraska and Texas Tech fans likely joining them this week. Let me first say, and I can’t emphasize this enough, these archetypes exist independent of this season’s teams and where they fall. They were created using historical results of actual teams in March going back to 2002. I have compiled the results for the teams that fall into those notches as a proof of exactly why I included them into the Wannabe archetype and not Strong Enough. From a data standpoint they align much closer with Wannabe results, with a better 1st and 2nd round result but actually a worse track record beyond that. A strong enough team is 10 times more likely to reach the Final 4, and > 20 points more reliable round by round to advance. Here is the data, and it’s listed again below the full table for easy comparison below.

From a basketball perspective, the general philosophy behind this is pretty simple, but allow me to explain. A team like Texas Tech has a clear weakness, defense. Their offense is not “strong enough” to reliably make up for that inadequacy in a single elimination tournament. The inverse applies to Nebraska, as they’re very good defensively but not enough to make up for the lack of offensive ability. That is the general idea, as it stands to reason as you get worse on one end of the floor you better be able to make up for on the other end. So, you tighten the constraints, which is what gives the jagged look as you go from Strong Enough-Solid-Solid-Strong Enough. Also, I understand the record of these teams, specifically Nebraska who is 15-0, but this one week snapshot doesn’t pigeon hole them forever. The Kenpom data is predictive, and given they played teams like Winthrop and USC Upstate to single digit finals, you can assume the next 15 games might go a little different. The beauty of this series is we’ll track it all the way through Selection Sunday, so we’ll see how it plays out.

Week 4 Thoughts:

The Juggernaut Watch is alive and well, but Michigan is pushing the boundary so we’ll see if they can keep up their level of domination as we’re still just now approaching the halfway point. The other big story has to be the 6 Elite teams, which would break the record currently held by the 2019 season which had 5. This story to me is a continuation from last season, as in my opinion we are watching a transformation of the sport playing out in real time. The top teams are just more complete than we have seen in the past, with the ability to add veteran depth through the portal in a way that has just never existed. Yes, we had grad transfers in the past, but the way rosters are able to transform and allow for coaches to plug holes or improve weaknesses is something we haven’t seen at this scale. Coaches are understanding how to roster build, and with that I think we will continue to see a larger group of dominant teams at the top of the sport. I could be wrong, but I do think, at least at the top, teams have improved and March will be a bit less unpredictable, a la last season. Some other notable storylines we’re tracking would be led by UConn still existing in just the Solid archetype, much to the chagrin of Husky fans. The offensive numbers have improved, but much of the country certainly has a perspective of UConn right now that doesn’t align with the data. A beautiful opportunity to test the collective hive mind vs the analytics. Finally, Vandy had a prove it moment the other night and knocked off Alabama, their biggest win to date and a bit of a solidifying moment that this team is a legit contender, not just in the SEC but for a deep March run. We’ll continue to track all of these movements and respond with data to all questions/concerns about the overall methodology. Until next week, enjoy the hoops.