For those of you new here, Week 1 will give you a full breakdown of what we’re doing.
We’re back for an update and we have some adjustments to discuss as we continue to mold this new project. The biggest change was to the “Solid” Archetype where I cut out what I would say was a hole in the middle, where the teams that lied there were neither Great offensively or defensively, kind of living in a middle ground. This currently is where Nebraska and Iowa reside, and once I ran the numbers they aligned, results wise, closer to the Wannabe archetype than the Solid archetype. This move shored up the Solid group to make it more reliable and right in line with Strong Enough as a 3rd tier grouping of reliability behind Elite and Great, with little change to the Wannabe archetype – an easy decision.
Next was just a potentially temporary move to help showcase how ridiculous Michigan has been so far, as they currently sit in a territory only 5 teams have occupied since 2002. All 5 of those teams made it to the Final 4 with 3 of them advancing to the title game. Clearly that is off the charts reliability, as a 100% hit rate on Final 4 trips is unprecedented. The line of demarcation is a > 50 net efficiency++, or spread between O++ and D++. I have chiseled out that section and dubbed it the “Juggernaut” archetype. The rarity calls for special treatment in my opinion, and it will be fascinating to watch and see if they can keep this level of play up all the way to March entering the tourney. For reference, 2024 Florida is included in this along with 2019 Virginia who both won the title. The all-time biggest spread was 2015 Kentucky who went undefeated until the Final 4, and Michigan trails then by a couple of tenths of a point so very close.
Week 2 Thoughts:
As I said above Michigan is the story at the top, but we still have 5 Elite teams which would tie the record all-time and surpass last year’s 4. Overall with the carve out in the Solid group as well as some teams rising and falling we’ve dropped to just 16 in our reliable categories after debuting with 20. I still expect efficiencies to drop as most teams have 18-20 games against conference opponents to go, so competition will rise and teams will have poor showings. On a micro level, clearly Vandy has to be the surprise of the season jumping all the way into “Great” territory with 3-star Sophomore PG Tyler Tanner being the story early on. I think most of the others involved here are usual suspects, and while some may be over-performing to have Vandy what I would consider 7th overall and the leader in the SEC is shocking. Bama has finally fallen to where I think they should reside as a Matador, and Kansas has become our first Grinder to watch. Last year it was St. John’s holding down the grinder spot week after week, and they were upset in R2. I don’t want to be alarmist for Jayhawk fans so I’ll say it’s just December, long way to go and your best player has been hurt so remain calm. All in all it’s still early but some interesting story lines are developing. Next update will be 2 weeks from now as I’ll pause for Christmas. See you then.
Welcome to the place where we have set out to use historical March Madness results to try and identify the characteristics that most often lead to success in the big dance. Or simply, to define what true Championship DNA looks like. I understand many will scoff at the idea of basketball being reduced to numbers on a screen, and trust me I can sympathize with that, but what I’ve done is accept the reality that my own eyeballs cannot consistently make correct predictions in March. Data can do a much better job than my eyeballs, and most likely yours as well. I’m here to show you that you in fact can reliably start to sort the top teams in the country and recognize which teams are going to have the best shot at the Final 4 and ultimately winning a national title. Many have tried, often saying something like “no team outside of x or outside of y that also hasn’t done z has won it all”, but I’m going to try and make it more about reliability than elimination. Allow me to explain.
The Data:
The base layer of this is that I’ve taken pre-tourney Kenpom efficiency data from every season since 2002 and compiled it. The obvious thing when looking at the numbers on the surface is that the game is changing stylistically as teams chase offensive efficiency and overall offensive skill develops. To put it concretely, average offensive efficiency in 2002 was 102 while currently in 2025 it is 107.4. To get even more granular, the 2nd best offensive team in 2002 was Oregon with an Ortg of 119.9. Today they would rank 23rd. In their day, that Oregon team was an elite offensive group relative to their competition, so we need a way to normalize this rating in order to fairly judge teams across time. We need to put every current team on the exact same scale, so we’ll be using normalized efficiency (OE++ / DE++) so a dominant 2002 offense isn’t punished next to today’s higher-scoring game. Think of it like this: KenPom data will tell you who’s good any given year relative to that year’s competition. OE++ and DE++ tell you how good they are compared to every tournament field for the last 23 years. Ultimately, the goal was to confidently be able to remove team name and season, and be left with a fair assessment of all teams since 2002 and their results in March.
Once the data was compiled it was time to test my original theory and see if I could identify common characteristics that most often led to deep runs in the tournament. My original hypothesis was that despite high overall efficiency, the teams that lean heavily on one end of the floor struggle more than well balanced teams, even if less efficient overall. As I studied and pulled the data my hypothesis was largely proven right, so I began to try and classify certain archetypes of teams. I landed on 8 key archetypes; Elite – Great – Solid – Strong Enough – Matadors – Grinders – Wannabes – Vanilla. Here is the table with exact historical results: Note: R2 indicates teams who reached the 2nd round, all the way to CH which indicates the teams who reached the Titlegame (46 total over 23 years).
For some additional proof this is still applying today even as the game changes:
2025: Final 4 was comprised of our 4 Elite teams. A direct reflection of how strong the field was at the top.
2024: Only 1 Elite team – UConn who won the title
2023: 0 Elite teams and the bracket descended into madness. However, our 2nd most reliable team UConn (Strong Enough) won the title as a 4 seed.
For a clear example of this playing out on the other end of the spectrum with specific ++ data consider this. Of the top-5 OE++ teams since 2002, two of them lost the first weekend – 2012 Mizzou (Matador) and 2014 Creighton (Matador). Both of them struggled to defend, which is why they landed in the matador archetype, and they suffered first weekend upsets. Meanwhile, the other 3 all fell in a reliable archetype and made deep runs, including the greatest offensive team 2015 Wisconsin (OE++ 131.87) who lost in the title game to Duke.
While nothing is 100% you can clearly see the stronger you are overall, combined with the ability to succeed on both ends of the floor, are strong indicators of your reliability to have March success. So, moving forward I am going to post a weekly update on Friday morning’s showing where the top-40 teams in Kenpom stand. For context, entering the tournament just 5 of the 92 (5.4%) total Final 4 teams since 2002 have entered the tourney outside the top-40 so that is why I landed on 40.
It begins today: Here is your Week 1 Championship DNA Board
Week 1 Thoughts:
The obvious thing jumping out at me early this year is we have a lot of really good teams at the top of the sport right now. I have a few thoughts on why, but let’s just get it out there, 20 teams in my reliable archetypes, including 5 in elite, would make for an outlier season. I do not expect that to be the final number once we get to Selection Sunday. In general, these efficiency numbers tend to bloat early in the season thanks to cupcakes on the schedule that the really good teams handle with ease, so I expect the rigor of conference play to diminish the number of teams in these reliable archetypes at least by a handful. There is a competing force as well though, as I do think the transfer portal and influx of talent from overseas is causing the teams at the top to improve. It has never been easier for a team to plug holes, reload after guys leave and even add depth, than it is right now. Unfortunately, for those who love upsets and chaos in March, we may be moving toward an era where that is drastically reduced. I don’t want to jump to that conclusion just yet, but after last year having all 4 number 1 seeds be dominant teams that all made the Final 4, and the way this year is starting out, you can’t help but go there. The exciting thing is we’re going to get to see this all play out as this will be a weekly update, so we’ll see if it’s more bloat from early season cupcakes or if we truly are seeing a concentration of talent at the top of the sport. Until next week, enjoy the hoops.
The defending champs have reloaded around a strong group of returners from last year’s group, led again by Todd Golden who has proven he was the exact right hire, bringing the Gators back to their championship caliber they had under Billy Donovan nearly 20 years ago. This year’s team will feature many familiar faces, especially in the froncourt as the entire 4 man rotation at the 4/5 spots are back. The backcourt is an entirely different situation though, as all 3 starters are gone and Aberdeen, the first guy off the bench, is also gone. That turns our attention to the portal, as Golden brought in 3 dynamite guards to replace what was lost, with Boogie Fland, Xaivian Lee and AJ Brown all poised to play major roles in this backcourt rotation. Freshmen CJ Ingram and Alex Lloyd will also compete for minutes, giving them 5 newcomers all looking to start. Klavzar and Brown coming back will have a chance as well, but we didn’t seem much of Brown and Klavzar was mostly just a catch a shoot option. I would expect the transfers and Ingram to dominate the minutes, and I think it’s a talented enough group to pair with this dominant frontcourt to make the Gators a threat to go back-to-back. It is all going to come down to how the guards defend, as guys like Richard and Martin were menaces on D for a team that went from 94th to 6th on D from 2023 to 2024. That was the difference for this program, and if they can continue that dominant effort on that end they will continue to be a force. My prediction is they take a small step back on D, but that still leaves an elite team offensively that plays solid D, good enough to win the SEC and make a deep run in March.
2.) Kentucky (#7)
The transition from John Calipari to Mark Pope was pretty seamless as the Wildcats were very competitive in a gauntlet of an SEC, and then they got to the 2nd weekend in the tourney for the first time since 2019. It was a complete rebuild with transfers and freshmen alike, so only bringing back 4 guys isn’t a huge concern since much of their roster was made up of seniors. Oweh being back is gigantic and pairing him with Jaland Lowe at PG gives UK a very exciting and proven scoring duo in the backcourt. Inside they are going to be extremely athletic and versatile, with guys like Quaintance, Williams and Dioubate transferring in to join Garrison and FR Moreno. That’s going to be a deep group that not only can help with the scoring load but should be very versatile defensively, and that’s not even including the Croatian Jelavic who could have an impact. Johnson and Aberdeen give them depth in the backcourt as well, so I have no doubt they have the top end talent to justify this ranking, but they also have the depth to withstand a long season. I don’t think they’ll be as good of a shooting team, but I expect them to continue to push the pace and with all of these athletes they should just be attacking downhill relentlessly. Pope proved in year 1 he is going to be able to capitalize on the resources here at Kentucky, which means we should expect them to continue to be at or near the top of the SEC and be a Final 4 threat year in and year out. This year will be no exception.
3.) Arkansas (#11)
Year 1 under Cal brought Arkansas right back to relevance, and while they weren’t at the top of the SEC he did finally get them rolling as the year went on, seeing them finish 8-5 in the league and get to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Rick Pitino and St. John’s. I think that positive momentum continues into this year, with 4 major contributors back, some international talent and most importantly those two 5-star FR guards who should come in and give them instant pop scoring the ball. They developed into a top-20 team defensively last year, which will need to continue for them to finish where I have them this year. My expectation if that does happen is that the FR guards give them a lift on the other end and all of a sudden you have a team that plays with physicality, the way they did last year, and can score at much higher level. They certainly lost guys like Thiero and Aidoo who helped them on D, but they played stretches without them and the young guys played well. I think we see a jump from Karter Knox and Billy Richmond who both emerged down the stretch and that, combined with the incoming talent, should vault the Razorbacks into contention in the SEC. Cal’s best teams at UK were consistently top-20 defensively, and while it fell off the last few years much of that was due to relying solely on FR that just couldn’t get it down quick enough. The mix of returning experience with some FR adding in where they fit to me is a much more solid approach and should drive them to taking a step forward in year 2.
4.) Alabama (#13)
Nate Oats continues to roll with the Tide as he’s navigated them to 5 straight tourneys, 4 of which they made it to the 2nd weekend, including last year’s Elite 8 run. Throw in a regular season title and 3 straight top-3 finishes overall in the SEC and it’s clear this is one of the best programs, not just in the SEC, but in the entire country right now. With all of that said, this might be his least talented team on paper that he’s had in a couple of years. While I still think they’re a top-15 team probably, the incoming FR are not elite and the transfers are more solid than great, and ultimately they don’t have that All-American potential player that we’ve come accustomed to seeing here under Oats. The backcourt of Philon/Holloway/Wrightsell will be fun to watch push the ball and fire away from 3, but they’re undersized and not the best defensively. I think Bethea could be a wildcard as he was a 5-star recruit to Miami last year and could give them more size at the guard spot, so if he can up his shooting numbers he could fit right in. They are also going to need transfer big man Williamson to be impactful as he should share the center load with returning Soph Sherrell who did show promise last year. Don’t get me wrong the talent is still here, but at the end of a close game who are you trusting with the ball in his hands to get it done? In the past it was guys like Mark Sears or Brandon Miller, but honestly Philon and Holloway have been pretty erratic so far in their careers. I’m worried about the defense regressing and same with their overall efficiency offensively. Small step back for Bama, but still a tourney team that is always going to be dangerous in March if they get hot from deep.
5.) Tennessee (#14)
The Final 4 continues to elude the Tennessee program under Rick Barnes, as they’ve now been to back-to-back Elite 8’s and 4 total Sweet 16’s over the last few years but haven’t been able to break through. This year might be a bit tougher, as this is the team with probably the most question marks for me coming into the season because nearly all of the production from last year’s team is gone. They are going to be relying heavily on transfer PG Ja’Kobi Gillespie and FR phenom Nate Ament. The latter is the guy who is likely going to have to shoulder the offensive load, as there really isn’t a ton of proven scoring and playmaking outside of Gillespie, who will need to be the Robin to Ament’s Batman. The next question is will Barnes be able to get all of these newcomers up to snuff on the defensive side of the ball, something we’ve come to expect from the Vols with him as the head man. They have been top-5 defensively each of the past 5 seasons, which is pretty remarkable, and really only Houston can come anywhere close to that kind of consistency on that end over that time span. The culture is there, but can it be preserved without the roster continuity that we’ve seen in the past? Even if it does and they’re back to being a top-5 team defensively, then we turn our attention back to the guard play and that’s the scary thing. Gillespie will run the show, but is LA Tech transfer Amaree Abram ready to step right into SEC play? What about the Israeli guard Burg? Or maybe it’s top-75 recruit Evans? I’ve used enough question marks to get my point across I believe. I trust Barnes enough to consider this Vols team a top-20 team going in, I mean most programs after the top-5 or so have questions, but it might be bumpy out of the gates as he searches for those answers. Either way, you’re going to at least want to tune in to see Ament who should be a top-5 pick and will heavily impact their ceiling this year.
6.) Auburn (#20)
Speaking of question marks, what on earth should we expect from this Auburn program this year now that only Tahaad Pettiford remains? That of course includes former HC Bruce Pearl who just a few days ago as of writing this retired and left the keys to the program to his son Steven. Almost an entirely new roster, a somewhat new coaching staff, at least at the top…what do we do with that? Well, I’m going to try and focus on the talent at hand, and it’s certainly there for this to be a top-25 team despite the turbulence felt in the fall. Pettiford is an All-American caliber guard now that he can run the show and he’ll be joined by Keyshawn Hall who scored at an elite level with UCF last year as a hybrid 3/4 man. Not only that, international big Jovic has promise as well, so there are options here for them offensively. Depth is going to be a concern though there’s no doubt about that, as they’re simply forced to rely on JUCO guys and FR to fill out their rotation. They may not need them to score double figures but the FR Williams-Adams and Magwood along with the DII/JUCO transfers are going to need to provide quality minutes there’s no way around it. So, what I’m saying is they’re top heavy, with at the very least a 1-2 combo in Pettiford and Hall that should ball out every night and get them into the upper half of the conference. In order to push further than that they need Murphy and Jovic to be solid contributors and some other guard to emerge to help Pettiford out. All of that is ignoring the fact their head coach just left the program. Expectations should still be high due to the talent, but asking Steven Pearl to have this much success might be asking too much. We’ll see how it plays out.
7.) Texas
Well the Rodney Terry experiment has come to its inevitable conclusion as he got worse YOY in each of his 3 full seasons after taking over for Chris Beard. In comes a proven vet in Sean Miller who has not only retained some holdovers from last year, a tough thing to do in today’s environment, but also brought in some very nice pieces to fit around them. The trio of Pope/Mark/Weaver give them stability in the backcourt, and you can see based on who was brought in Miller is comfortable with those guys as he focused mostly on the 3-5 positions. We know his play style is a fast paced game with a wide open offense, as we’ve seen it at both Arizona and Xavier. He brought in guys like Cam Heide who is athletic and can really shoot it, but also guys like Wilcher and Swain who prefer to get out and run and attack downhill from the wing spot. Inside the german transfer Duru should come right in and have a role at the 4 spot with mid-major transfers like Traore and Vokietaitis looking to play the 4/5 spot as well. It’s much more of a question mark what you’ll get from that group, and that’s the hesitation as rebounding and protecting the paint could be a major concern. I don’t doubt they’ll be able to score, but much like Miller’s prior stops at Xavier and Arizona, the defensive end will tell the story in terms of how much success they have. They seem like a borderline top-25 team that should make the tourney, but again, if they can’t defend or rebound they could fall short of that. I’m betting on Miller and the guards, but I’m not super confident.
8.) Mississippi St
It is indisputable that Chris Jans is a fantastic HC in college basketball, now getting the Mississippi St Bulldogs to 3 straight tourney’s after they made it just once the 13 seasons prior to his arrival. They happen to be 0-3 in the dance, but eventually they are going to break through in my opinion. They have one of the best scoring guards in the SEC back in Josh Hubbard, and while much of the production outside of him has parted ways, the incoming group is solid and should position them right back in the middle of this conference. Epps alongside Hubbard gives them a solid 1-2 punch in the backcourt, and guys like Achor, Walker and Ballard give them solid pieces up front as well. They also welcome in 3 top-100 recruits who will hopefully stick around and develop under Jans so he can try and sustain some cohesion going forward. I will be interested to see the style of play, as to start his tenure Jans had this program mucking games up, playing a physical brand of ball that produced top-10 defenses, they just struggled to score. It flipped by year 3 where they were a top-25 offense but barely top-50 on D. All 3 years ended about the same, but how they got there was much different, especially the pace as they went from 336th to 127th. Either way, I don’t see this roster competing with the top of the league, but they certainly could get back into the dance as a 8-10 seed and try and take another step forward by winning a tourney game.
9.) Ole Miss
I am a noted Chris Beard stan so I tend to have his team’s a bit higher than most in the preseason because I do believe he’s one of the best coaches in the country. It took him just to year 2 at Ole Miss to start doing things that hadn’t been done in 24 years in Oxford by getting the Rebs to the Sweet 16. Almost all of their production were Seniors though, so really only Malik Dia is back as a major contributor, so it will be tough to maintain that same level of success. The biggest question I had when looking at the roster was AJ Storr…was last year an aberration or is he really just cashing a check? Beard’s #1 priority has to be to get Storr to buy in and play hard, because if he does that he’s a fantastic player and could be their leading scorer and a main reason they get back to the dance this year. Around him guys like Scott, Johnson and Perry all come from P5 schools and are looking for expanded roles. They have promise I’ll say that, but this could easily fall short, especially if Storr is not a reliable double digit scorer and a complete no-show on D again. The frontcourt is full of guys Beard loves as they’re undersized but athletic, which helps with his high pressure defensive style as he’s historically played small ball 5’s so they can switch 1-5. He shifted back to that last year and transformed them from 141st on D to top-25. I expect them to defend well again, and if Storr buys in they could be a top-25 team, but I’m hesitant on that. There’s a chance he plays lazy D and Beard does exactly what Self did and barely plays him. Even if that happens I think they can make the tourney, that’s how much I respect Beard, but they’ll be scratching and clawing down the stretch to get there.
10.) Vandy
Mark Byington deserves a ton of credit for what he did with Vandy last year, bringing in almost an entirely new roster and taking that team to the tourney. He is forced to do that again basically, as he saw 8 guys hit the portal and in turn brought in 8 new faces via the portal. They do get 2 starters back with Nickel and McGlockton back as the starting frontcourt, but they’ll likely hope that Jalen Washington from UNC can be the starting 5 and actually give them some size inside after starting those 2 at just 6’7″ last year down the stretch at the 4/5 spots. The backcourt is entirely overhauled, and while the metric sites seem to like all that they added, it looks to me like a lot of inefficient scorers, relying on a guy like Frankie Collins who is now on his 4th team in 4 years, to run the show. There are some nice pieces here don’t get me wrong, with guys like James and Miles already proving they can produce at the P5 level. My concern with them is on the defensive side of the ball, and my mind is blown at what sites like KP and Miya have them ranked preseason on that end given how bad they were last year and how bad Byington teams have historically played on that end. I for one, do not expect them to transform into a top-25 defense like KP does, as Byington has never even had a top-70 team defensively. He wants to play fast and score, defense seems to be an after thought. They should rebound better, maybe defend the paint better with Washington, but I still don’t see it being the emphasis that it needs to be to get to that level. Because of that I think they’re a bubble team that will be right on the border of in or NIT, and while he proved his ability to build the roster last year and get them to play well offensively, it cannot be overstated how difficult it is to do that and get a team to be elite defensively. I don’t see that happening, unlike some computers.
11.) Georgia
Similar to Beard at Ole Miss this is just a bet on Mike White who I really think is building something at a school where most could care less because it’s so heavily a football school. They made the dance last year for the first time since 2015, and while they didn’t get their first win since 2002, you feel like that was a major step to just get there again. I like that he has kept a few of his recruits with guys like Cain, Cyril and James all coming back, and this group of transfers is actually pretty exciting. Catchings was a top-50 recruit with good size and can really shoot it, and the guards coming in to help Cain all have shown promise and have multiple years of eligibility aside from Bailey. Really what I trust from White is that his teams are going to play hard and play well defensively. I don’t know if the talent will mesh or what the ceiling is, but I do think the guys coming back can develop and take a step forward and I like the promise of the transfer guys. They have gone from 132–>58–>32 defensively over his 3 years, so I would expect that his standard and culture has been established. The question will be can they score enough with these uber-talented SEC teams to compete and find their way back into the dance. I’m not sure of that, but I do think it’s an underrated roster and White is an underrated coach who has done a good job here. Bubble team is my expectation, with the acknowledgement they may not be able to score well enough to be a tourney team.
12.) Mizzou
Have to give Dennis Gates his flowers here because heading into last year this program, and his reputation, were in total flux. Year 1 saw them make a surprise tourney run and win a game, and then the wheels fell of and they went 0-18 in the SEC in 2024. Remarkably, the administration stuck with Gates, as did a good portion of the team, and with some transfer help they quickly rebounded to make another tourney appearance last year. Once again, Gates is welcoming back a good portion of last year’s roster, with returning starters Mark Mitchell, Anthony Robinson and Trent Pierce all back. The bigger thing I’ve been watching is he’s retaining both FR and transfers in, so the guys are buying into what he’s selling here even with that disaster results wise in 2024. All of that said, they did lose some very important pieces in the backcourt, as Grill, Bates, Perkins and Warrick were all big time contributors and integral to their success. So, how are they backfilling? Well, they’re going to turn to transfers Jayden Stone and Sebastian Mack plus top-100 recruit Boateng who they’ll need to make a SO jump. Therein-lies the reason for them being this low in my mind, as they were a top-10 offense both years Gates got them to the tourney, and I’m not feeling that great about Mack and Stone, both guys who have struggled from 3. They have never defended well under Gates overall, but their 2 good seasons they were top-10 in steal %. That’s the goal here, playing fast and high pressure D that generates steals by gambling. Don’t succeed and you’re out of position and give up a bucket. In summary, I see regression on both ends. Maybe Stone and Mack deliver, maybe they defend the paint better and generate steals at the same rate, but that’s too much to overcome in my opinion to see them repeat last year’s success.
13.) Texas A&M
Texas A&M is now the latest victim of Buzz Williams’ desire to abandon programs he has built up, and they now have to turn to Bucky McMillan who has spent the last few years running wild at Samford in the SoCo. He is going to have the Aggies playing his run and gun style but there is no reason for me to believe this hodge podge of transfers under Bucky is going to play even a lick of defense. Yes, I’m willing to admit the talent level coming in here is actually good enough for them to compete in the SEC, with guys like Pop Isaacs, Mgbako and Griffin all proven guys at the P5 level. It just screams of an AAU pick-up style of play where they just push the pace, launch from deep and play zero defense. Bucky never had a top-100 defense at Samford and actually only cracked the top-200 once, which was his lone trip to the tourney in 2024. That team was 15th in the country at forcing TO’s, so if there’s a glimmer of hope here is that they adopt that havoc style of defense and these guys buy into that and can generate TO’s with a high pressure style of play. The issue he had at Samford was they took a lot of chances, gambled and got out of position, so their FG% allowed was abysmal. That’s what I expect from them this year, and while they should be able to score with anyone it’s not going to be enough in a league this tough from top to bottom.
14.) Oklahoma
Porter Moser finally had a breakthrough of sorts last year with the Sooners as he finally got them to the dance in year 4. Unfortunately for him almost that entire team is gone, headlined by Jeremiah Fears heading to the NBA early. It’s going to be tough sledding for him but there is a tiny glimmer of hope considering the top end talent that he got in the portal. All 4 of these transfers should start, with the 5th starter up in the air. That takes you to the guys beyond that top 4, which is a giant question mark with returning guys that haven’t proven production at this level, coming from mid-major schools, JUCO, Denmark and of course high school. At the end of the day, I think the transfers keep the ship afloat but it is impossible to predict what kind of help those guys are going to have around them, much less how they gel and play together. Individually they are very good college basketball players, but how they come together and how they’re supported is a complete unknown and why I am keeping them down here. They are certainly not without hope to get back to the tourney, which is the crazy thing about the SEC as there are now 14 teams who legitimately enter the season with hopes to get to the tourney. I don’t think the Sooners will be one of them, but if they’re fighting on the bubble come February I wouldn’t be surprised by any means.
15.) LSU
I don’t really know what’s going on with Matt McMahon at LSU and I’m not really sure anyone cares in the administration. He has 3 seasons under his belt and has underperformed in each of them, with his best finish 88th in Kenpom. In fact, he has finished >35 spots lower than their preseason ranking each of those 3 seasons, meaning the talent on the roster is greater than the results we are seeing. Doing less with more year after year is usually a cause for firing, but we march on with McMahon in Baton Rouge. We are essentially looking at a team with a compilation of mid-major talent, and while they’re proven at that level we’re talking about what is now the best conference in the sport. You’re not competing with Florida/Kentucky/Alabama with a bunch of mid-major guys. Can some guys rise up and contribute, even at a high level sometimes, yes. But when that’s most of your roster it’s just not going to work. He did get 3 top-100 recruits so I’ll give him credit there, but his ability to hold on to them as Sophomore’s in the past has been essentially 0. Again, every year he has wildly missed expectations and this year is the lowest starting point yet. Not great.
16.) South Carolina
It is starting to look like the 2024 trip to the NCAA tourney was more of a one-off for Lamont Paris than a sign of momentum here at S. Carolina. I do think he’s a good coach but he appears to not be getting the resources needed to compete in the SEC right now. Most of the talent is gone from last year’s team that won just 2 conference games, and maybe that includes some addition by subtraction if you’re trying to be positive, but it’s never a good sign when that many guys are fleeing the program. The bigger issue is what is coming in to replace it as there are 4 low rated recruits and 6 transfers that frankly are not moving the needle besides the return of Meechie Johnson. It’s pretty clear this is the least talented roster on paper and given Paris has 2 seasons under his belt in which he won just 5 combined SEC games, there’s precedent for the Gamecocks to finish last. Yes, 2024 happened, but I’m looking at that as an outlier at this point, especially given the gap in talent.
Coming off of back-to-back championships, last year was a trip back down to earth for Hurley and his UConn Huskies. It of course wasn’t a complete failure as they still made the dance and won a game as an 8 seed, but it was a reset as they tried to reload after losing nearly everyone from those 2 championship runs. The last remaining stalwart is Alex Karaban, who is back for his final season, and the young talent that Hurley has brought in is sticking around in large part, with guys like Ball, Stewart and Ross all back attempting to grow into larger roles. At the end of the day, we know this will be a well coached team and the transfer backcourt additions should improve what was a relative weak point last year with Mahaney disappointing and the group being the worst shooting team here since 2021. Depth was also an issue for them last year and boy did Hurley fix that as he has brought in a ton of talent, all of which just simply can’t play this year, but to have them able to compete for time and push each other in practice is a fantastic sign. It might be hard to hold on to them all, but to have amassed this much talent has to lead you to believe Hurley is going to find a group of 8-9 guys that can contend with anyone in the country given the proven commodities he has at his disposal. I have no idea how the rotation will sort out, aside from Ball and Karaban, but it’s an embarrassment of riches for a HC that has built enough trust to believe this is going to be one of the best teams in the country, not just the Big East.
2.) St. John’s (#6)
I have immense respect for Rick Pitino and what he’s doing with St. John’s is just cementing his legacy as one of the all-time coaches in college basketball. Last year ended on a bit of a sour note though, losing in the 2nd round amidst a benching of star player RJ Luis. Outside of that, bringing St. John’s back to life and winning the Big East in year 2 is an awesome accomplishment and by the looks of it they’ll be right back in contention this year. Granted, there are a few question marks given all the talent that is leaving the program, but this transfer class is about as good as it gets across the country. You have two guys coming in with Hopkins and Mitchell who can play the 4 spot next to Ejiofor who is back to dominate the paint so the froncourt will be a strength. Their big weakness last year was scoring the ball and it’s inarguable that the guards Jackson, Sellers, Sanon and Darling are a better group of guards scoring the ball than they had last year. They may take a step back defensively from what they were last year but I fully expect a top-50 offense this year which should make up for a small step back on the other end. Expect The Garden to be rocking all year long once again and expect a better finish to the year from St. John’s who should absolutely be a national contender.
3.) Creighton (#18)
Greg McDermott continues to churn out successful season after successful season here at Creighton, and while it hasn’t produced much hardware they are still one of the perennial contenders in the conference and have made the dance 5 straight years, winning at least 1 game in each and reaching the 2nd weekend 3 of those trips. No Final 4’s or national titles, but you can’t talk about college basketball without at least considering what Creighton is doing in the Big East. Now, much of last year’s team is out, but there are several young pieces back looking to step into a larger role and the transfer class is very solid. I love the duo coming over from Iowa as both Dix and Freeman are fantastic fits in McDermott’s fast paced system. The returning bigs playing around Freeman will give them a very solid front court, the big question is going to be at the 2-3 spots. They have several options there, with mid major transfers Graves and Harper being good experienced options but the FR Greer and young transfer Swartz, a top-60 recruit to Miami last year, should both contend for minutes there as well. If a couple of those guys really hit and can contribute then I think Creighton can join UConn and St. John’s in the top tier of this conference, but for now I’ll keep them a step behind just due to the question marks in that backcourt. Nevertheless, I expect it to be 6 straight trips to the dance, with the outside chance that duo of Dix and Freeman have enough around them to be Final 4 threats.
4.) Marquette
There are very few programs across the country that are as tight of a ship as this Marquette program under Shaka Smart. This is now 2 years in a row that he hasn’t taken in a transfer, and with just one player exiting via the portal they win the roster continuity award by a mile. Of course, you have to be concerned about how heavily they leaned on dynamic playmakers like Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones who are now gone with no obvious guys filling those voids. That’s where the lack of using the transfer portal could come back to bite them, but one thing we know for sure is they are going to be a nightmare defensively. They were top-20 in the country each of the last 2 seasons at forcing TO’s, their big issue last year was allowing offensive rebounds. That’s an even bigger concern than the scoring deal because they added nothing to change that on the interior. That’s why I have them outside of my top-25 to start the year, and while I respect what Shaka is doing by bringing in FR, developing them and ultimately rewarding their loyalty by giving them the shot to grow into starting roles, it makes it difficult to fill holes when they arise. They desperately need Royce Parham to make a leap forward and a guy like Josh Clark who redshirted could be important as a 7-footer. At the end of the day I respect Shaka and trust in their defense enough to have them up here, but how they score and control the glass, two major components of the game, will determine just how good they can be. It’s not going to be his best team here, but I expect a 5th straight tourney appearance in year 5 for Shaka who has experienced much more success here than at Texas.
5.) Providence
I’m banking on last year being an aberration as I was uber impressed with Kim English in year 1 with the Friars. Last year just was a disaster ultimately with injury after injury to major contributors. We’ll hope they have much better injury luck and taking a look at the transfer talent that is coming in they should have a lot to work with, especially with Jason Edwards coming in and leading the show. I like Sellers and Floyd next to him and they have some strong frontcourt additions in Powell and Hargrove as well. Overall, I think if all this talent clicks and they get back to defending like they were in year 1 under English they have an outside shot at a tourney berth. They certainly aren’t going to be world beaters, but if they’re hitting their ceiling it won’t be fun traveling to Providence, Rhode Island in that environment. Look for guys like Mela and Erhunmwunse to be important development pieces as well, as they started shining late in expanded roles after all the injuries. This would be my dark horse to be a fun team that gets in as like a 10 seed. Not sure if that’s popular sentiment but there’s a surprising amount of talent here and English can coach. Watch out for the Friars is all I’m saying.
6.) Georgetown
Ed Cooley has had a bit of a tough time building back this Georgetown program, but last year was a major step in the right direction as they went from just 2 conference wins in year 1 all the way up to 8 a year ago. Now, they actually started out the year 12-2 before falling apart, but much of that was due to injuries to most of their top guys including NBA draft pick Thomas Sorber. The signs were good enough for me to believe Cooley has this train moving in the right direction, especially since he was able to hold on to some young talent that he brought in as his first true FR class. On top of that the transfers coming in I also like as a mix of veterans and promising young guys that should make immediate impacts. Mack/Lewis/Love make for a solid backcourt, with young pieces around them like DHS/Abraham/Williams looking for a bigger role than they previously had. The frontcourt could be the issue though, with just Iwuchukwu and the 3 returning guys from last year’s FR class (2 redshirts), I kind of question what that will look like. I do have them finishing better than last year, but I’m not sure if it will be good enough or not to get into the dance. They will need those transfer guards to really step up and also to continue their momentum defensively they showed last season (321st–>58th YOY). If they can get stops and this backcourt scores the way I think they can they should be fighting on the bubble all the way to the end. That’s the ceiling, but certainly with this many question marks it could be worse..
7.) Xavier
Well we have a 2nd Pitino entering the Big East as son Richard joins his dad in this conference that is fighting to remain in the power conference conversation without football. While I am excited about the potential here with Pitino and Xavier, I’m not convinced this rag tag group of mid-major transfers is going to get them humming in year 1. I mean, just look at the stark difference in roster makeup between UConn/St. John’s and this Xavier roster. I’m not trying to belittle the talent of these guys of course, but there are levels to this thing, and frankly I’m not buying stock in Xavier to be nationally relevant beyond the matchups between father and son that will inevitably capture people’s attention. I have no idea the resources that Xavier does or doesn’t have, but in this era that does matter and if they can’t pay to acquire the necessary talent Pitino might just use this as a launching pad to a job where he can. Now, that doesn’t preclude you from being competitive in the Big East and finding a way into the dance, but long term I wonder if he can build them to the point that UConn/St. John’s are so he can contend nationally. Also, let’s not totally conflate Richard’s history with his father’s, as Richard was the HC at Minnesota for 8 years and only made the dance twice. He got it going the last couple years at New Mexico but he has much to prove as a HC still. To say the least, I have reservations, both about this year’s roster and the future of this pairing of Xavier/Pitino. We’ll see how it plays out.
8.) Villanova
No program in the country has been more sad than the post-Jay Wright Villanova Wildcats over the past couple of years. Kyle Neptune was predictably unable to continue the success of Wright, taking a program that had made the tourney 9 straight years, including 2 national titles, through 3 straight seasons of missing the dance altogether. In comes Kevin Willard, who surprisingly left a Big Ten job to come back to the Big East to try and turn this ship around. He is going to have his work cut out for him in year 1 as he tries to completely rebuild this roster, with just 2 guys returning from a year ago. That means 8 transfers and 3 FR, with most of the proven production coming from the mid-major ranks. Devin Askew is probably the most proven commodity, a UK recruit way back in 2020, he should lead the show. Frankly though, beyond him it’s a bunch of question marks in terms of production that you can absolutely count on. That is why they are so low, and while it would be wild to think Villanova is going to remain outside of relevancy for a 4th year in a row, that is the state you can quickly find yourself in when you make the wrong hire. Neptune was that, and Willard is left to clean up the mess, we’ll see how much hay he can make in year 1.
9.) Butler
As an Indiana native seeing this Butler program struggling like this is a sad sight, but they really don’t have much to work with in this current era of college sports, so they’ll continue to hope that the wily vet Thad Matta can get some momentum going for this program that hasn’t been dancing since 2018. From the looks of it they were able to take one big swing in the transfer portal getting Jalen Jackson to run the show, and they’re going to need him to shoulder a big load offensively. They have some nice pieces to play around him with Butler and Ajayi coming in, and Bizjack returning as a catch and shoot option. In terms of playmaking though it’s going to all be on Jackson. This is probably Matta’s best FR class so that’s good news, but his track record of holding on to the FR he’s brought in is not great, as evidenced by the 5 guys transferring out this cycle. Much of that could be due to the money available at other schools, and that’s just the issue non-football schools are going to face. Short of a mega rich donor they’re left with only what the Big East can provide sans-football. Unfortunate, but Matta is going to have to coach his tail off to get this group back to the dance.
10.) DePaul
Alright we’re right where we want to be if you’re Chris Holtmann rebuilding DePaul. Sounds weird to say after just 4 Big East wins, but considering DePaul had won only 3 such games over the prior 2 seasons combined that is a major step forward. Now, after bringing in an entirely new roster last year you have 4 guys back, 3 of them being core rotation pieces. That’s progress, some momentum you might even say. You’ll of course have noticed I still have them way down at 10th in the league, but we’re starting from literal scratch here so this should not be offending anyone. I love that the backcourt is back with Gunn and Blocker, and Benson should slot right back in to contribute inside as well. What we’re looking at here are the additions of Banks and Maclin for scoring help as well as a wild card with Khaman Maker. He’s a 7’1″ C that was a pretty good recruit, if he can come in and anchor your defense as a rim protector and rebounder, all of a sudden we may be cooking with gas partner. I’m not trying to insinuate DePaul is going to be a contender, but who is to say we can’t double that win total and get up to 8 Big East wins? Do that and we slot up a couple of spots and have some real momentum. These are the programs I love to follow because you have a real pro who has coached at a high level trying to raise a dead program. That’s what this is all about, and while I doubt there’s a large contingency of DePaul hoops fans out there reading season previews…if you’re here just know, I’m rooting for you, and I see the light at the end of the tunnel.
11.) Seton Hall
It looked like Shaheen Holloway was going to be able to navigate the Big East waters well after year 2 where he had Seton Hall just on the outside of a tourney berth with positive momentum from year 1. That all came crashing down last year in what was nothing but a disaster of a season that culminated in just 2 Big East wins and finishing below DePaul. It’s one of those seasons you have to flush, and lucky for Holloway in this era you can just cycle everyone out and bring in an entire new team with relative ease. The unfortunate part is most of these guys are either productive mid-major talents or unheralded guys transferring down from power 4 conference teams where they didn’t play much and/or were wildly inefficient. That could be a good thing if they’re fighting to break through, but it could also be they didn’t earn that PT for a reason other than just simply a better guy was in front of them. None of those guys were these promising recruits that just need a role to shine in my opinion, so I genuinely think we’re looking at the worst team in the Big East here yet again with Seton Hall, in what could be Holloway’s final season here if that’s the case. Maybe he gets them to be an elite defensive team, as that’s his calling card, but that’s asking a lot for a team of complete strangers to come together and be connected on D. I don’t see it happening to say the least, so for Seton Hall I expect another tumultuous season that likely ends in a coaching search come spring.
The tournament is finally here so we of course need to check to see where all of these teams sit as we enter the tourney. As I’ve been saying all year, we have 4 dominant teams and it played out as all 4 of them earned a 1 seed as Florida came on strong to end the season and claim the final 1 seed. Everyone loves to proclaim that it’s never as chalk as people think it’s going to be, but if there’s ever a year we see the 1 seeds dominate this would have to be the year. We have only had 4 teams since 2000 enter the tourney with a net Kenpom rating as high as all of our 4 1 seeds have this year. And wouldn’t you know they all made at least the Final 4 with 3 of them getting to the title game. Obviously, anything can happen as always, but you can already bet I will have at least 3 of these teams in my Final 4, with Houston the one I’m concerned about as of writing this due to the J’Wan Roberts injury. If he’s healthy full steam ahead for our all 1 seed Final 4, but if he’s out I would start to look beyond Houston at Tennessee and a sleeper pick being Clemson as the 5 seed in that region. Also, long time readers, how bout that finish to the season for Auburn? Not so crazy now am I…anywho, let’s get it.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Our same trio of elite teams that we’ve been tracking all year long. I would at minimum have these teams in the Elite 8, but watch out for Houston as they have a Strong Enough team Gonzaga potentially in round 2 with J’Wan Roberts last seen in a boot. Also, Clemson as Solid is the 5 that they could see in the Sweet 16 so the path won’t be easy.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Still have Auburn just a step off the pace but as you can see in the numbers teams here are still very successful in March, especially the first weekend. I will have Auburn in my Final 4, but losing to Florida in a SEC clash.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Tennessee is the team I’m really watching here as they’re borderline Great and looked awesome in the SEC tourney. They are Houston light, with a bit more difficulty scoring, but we could have an opening for them if Houston goes down early, so I’m thinking Tennessee to the Final 4. Iowa St is dealing with injuries so tread lightly there and I already mentioned I’m watching Clemson as a dark horse Elite 8 team.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
Alabama has a good draw with 0 other teams in trustworthy categories until the Elite 8 potential matchup with Duke. If they get knocked off before that I’m looking at Wisconsin who is just outside the Solid group. Texas Tech and Michigan St look like strong Elite 8 picks as well, as Tech has Grinder St. John’s and Sparty gets a beat up Iowa St potentially as the biggest test. Maryland has to get through Florida so I’m stopping them at the Sweet 16 but confident in them and same with A&M.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
Not picking these teams to get past the first weekend, end of story. Don’t play D you don’t win in March.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
St. John’s might be an outlier here because they’re so good on defense but I’m not taking them beyond the Sweet 16 for sure. St. Mary’s night night.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
Not much faith in any of these teams except maybe Arizona/Wisconsin who have some favorable matchups. No Final 4 for sure, probably not past Sweet 16 at best.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
No chance beyond the first weekend for these teams either. Can’t do it won’t do it.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. The domination at the top of the sport continues, and if you are a long time reader you know I’ve pointed out that we have 4 teams that have separated themselves. Duke/Houston/Auburn/Florida are all standing out and should be the only teams discussed as “title favorites”. There are of course other good teams that could win it, but anyone outside of those 4 would be a big surprise, and as unpredictable as the tourney is viewed the winner has been one of the top-6 teams (Tennessee/Bama are 5-6) on Kenpom for 9 straight years and overall 17 of the last 19 years. Yes there are upsets, yes there will always be chaos, but at the end of the day it’s almost always one of the handful of great teams each year that cuts down the nets. So, we have that group and the rest of this is to figure out who we should trust to meet them later on in the tourney and give them a fight.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Duke, Houston and Florida remain Elite and look like the teams to beat in college basketball, along with Auburn who is the best offense in the country and right on the doorstep now defensively. As I said from the get go, we have 4 outstanding teams in the sport this year.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn is back to where they probably should be given how dominant they’ve been, and while they haven’t always shown up defensively they’ve done enough to clearly be the #1 overall seed and are a very trustworthy pick in March right now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Tennessee has finally pushed out of strong enough and into solid, although that’s not a huge needle mover it is nice to see them improving offensively after some big games from Chaz Lanier. The other 3 are mainstays around here and are still firmly a part of the 2nd tier of contenders behind the big 4.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
As expected we lost a couple of teams here after last week with both Purdue and Mizzou dropping off, but surprisingly we added Saint Mary’s who continues to dominate defensively out on the West Coast. Teams like Bama/Wisconsin/Gonzaga have been living here for a long time, and Texas Tech continues to flirt with both Solid and Wannabe as they have at times been great on either end and struggled on either end.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
Kentucky finally has some company in the Matador group again as Mizzou jumps up here after giving up 92 to a bad offensive team in Arkansas. It should also be noted that UK has improved from near 90th defensively to almost cracking the top-60. That is a significant improvement and for a team that can score so well finding a way to defend even at an average level would make them dangerous.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
Same group as last week here as Kansas fell further into Grinder territory with A&M barely sliding in. St. John’s is a common Final 4 pick I’m starting to hear, but around here we will be avoiding taking them into the 2nd weekend much less all the way to San Antonio. Although it should be noted Pitino has lead bad offenses on deep runs before, making up part of that 1.6% and 4.9%.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
Michigan fell way down offensively since we last met, but the team I want to highlight the most is Clemson as they are on the doorstep of Solid if they can just play some better D as we close out the regular season. They’ve proven with their win over Duke they can compete with the best, just have to find more consistency on D as we end the year.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We have teams here who are going in opposite directions, with Louisville still charging forward, nearing the Solid archetype at this point. Then there’s Marquette, who has fallen all the way from “Great” to “Vanilla”, and while they still are in the top-30 they’re barely holding on to relevancy. We also welcome VCU who is dominating the A-10 and finds themselves in the top-30 for the first time this year.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. It’s pretty evident by the data as well as just watching the games that we have 4 teams that have separated themselves at this point. Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn very clearly standout, and the domination at the top of the sport is something we haven’t seen in some time. You have to go all the way back to the 2015 season, in my opinion, to see this level of top heavy play in college basketball. That year we had undefeated Kentucky (“Elite”) that lost in the Final 4 to Wisconsin, who was very similar to Auburn as the #1 offense in the country and flirting around top-15 defensively. You also had Duke who won it all that year and then Arizona/Villanova (“Great”) as dominant teams with an overall efficiency north of 33. Arizona lost to Wisconsin in the Elite 8 and then Nova bounced out early in round 2 in the big upset that year. That was basically the only thing that didn’t go according to plan, with 3 of the 5 dominant teams getting to the Final 4. I am starting to expect a similar type of tourney, with now those 4 elite teams rating higher than everyone last year but UConn. Every year people say there’s more and more parity, the tourney is less and less predictable, and maybe beyond those top 4 it will be this year, but it’s just a fact we haven’t seen this level of efficiency and domination from a group of teams like we have this year since 2015. Obviously there are a couple of weeks left to play until the dance, but at this point you’d be foolish to pick a national champion that isn’t 1 of those 4 teams. Also, in reference to what I talked about last week, we lost a couple of teams from the trustworthy categories already so it’s already leveling out at 15 teams.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Duke, Houston and Florida remain Elite and look like the teams to beat in college basketball, along with Auburn who is the best offense in the country and right on the doorstep now defensively. As I said from the get go, we have 4 outstanding teams in the sport this year.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn is back to where they probably should be given how dominant they’ve been, and while they haven’t always shown up defensively they’ve done enough to clearly be the #1 overall seed and are a very trustworthy pick in March right now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Auburn drops to solid once again, as they’ve oscillated up and down the ranks from Elite all the way down to Solid. Defensively they are just not consistent enough to join that group, but they have a huge chance @ Alabama this weekend to improve on that and get a big win. The rest of this group are similar names, with Arizona and Maryland still of note as they are hot and improving.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
Alabama, Mizzou and Purdue are all barely clinging to their inclusion here, with Bama sliding consistently thanks to their inability to get stops. Purdue has gone from near solid ranking to almost falling to Wannabe, but Mizzou has clawed their way here for the first time, so they are going in the opposite direction. Gonzaga/Wisconsin/Tennessee are the stalwarts here, with Tennessee being the team I’d be most confident in.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
We’re down to just the Wildcats, who have fallen from grace after picking up massive wins earlier in the season. Teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Purdue and Gonzaga have all found themselves here at some point but have made improvements defensively lately, but they’re certainly capable of finishing here if they slip up down the stretch.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
We have added to the party here with some more bad offenses drifting down to the Grinder archetype. St. John’s of course is still here, but we’ve added A&M and Kansas, who have both been very near to here for a while but have finally crossed over into dangerous territory. This often happens as the conference season moves forward, as weaknesses are attacked. I would expect at least A&M to remain here, with Kansas having a chance to bounce back with all the talent they have.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We have teams here who are going in opposite directions, with Louisville still charging forward, nearing the Solid archetype at this point. Then there’s Marquette, who has fallen all the way from “Great” to “Vanilla”, and while they still are in the top-30 they’re barely holding on to relevancy.
5-STAR Bracketology 