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1.) Florida (#3)

The defending champs have reloaded around a strong group of returners from last year’s group, led again by Todd Golden who has proven he was the exact right hire, bringing the Gators back to their championship caliber they had under Billy Donovan nearly 20 years ago. This year’s team will feature many familiar faces, especially in the froncourt as the entire 4 man rotation at the 4/5 spots are back. The backcourt is an entirely different situation though, as all 3 starters are gone and Aberdeen, the first guy off the bench, is also gone. That turns our attention to the portal, as Golden brought in 3 dynamite guards to replace what was lost, with Boogie Fland, Xaivian Lee and AJ Brown all poised to play major roles in this backcourt rotation. Freshmen CJ Ingram and Alex Lloyd will also compete for minutes, giving them 5 newcomers all looking to start. Klavzar and Brown coming back will have a chance as well, but we didn’t seem much of Brown and Klavzar was mostly just a catch a shoot option. I would expect the transfers and Ingram to dominate the minutes, and I think it’s a talented enough group to pair with this dominant frontcourt to make the Gators a threat to go back-to-back. It is all going to come down to how the guards defend, as guys like Richard and Martin were menaces on D for a team that went from 94th to 6th on D from 2023 to 2024. That was the difference for this program, and if they can continue that dominant effort on that end they will continue to be a force. My prediction is they take a small step back on D, but that still leaves an elite team offensively that plays solid D, good enough to win the SEC and make a deep run in March.

2.) Kentucky (#7)

The transition from John Calipari to Mark Pope was pretty seamless as the Wildcats were very competitive in a gauntlet of an SEC, and then they got to the 2nd weekend in the tourney for the first time since 2019. It was a complete rebuild with transfers and freshmen alike, so only bringing back 4 guys isn’t a huge concern since much of their roster was made up of seniors. Oweh being back is gigantic and pairing him with Jaland Lowe at PG gives UK a very exciting and proven scoring duo in the backcourt. Inside they are going to be extremely athletic and versatile, with guys like Quaintance, Williams and Dioubate transferring in to join Garrison and FR Moreno. That’s going to be a deep group that not only can help with the scoring load but should be very versatile defensively, and that’s not even including the Croatian Jelavic who could have an impact. Johnson and Aberdeen give them depth in the backcourt as well, so I have no doubt they have the top end talent to justify this ranking, but they also have the depth to withstand a long season. I don’t think they’ll be as good of a shooting team, but I expect them to continue to push the pace and with all of these athletes they should just be attacking downhill relentlessly. Pope proved in year 1 he is going to be able to capitalize on the resources here at Kentucky, which means we should expect them to continue to be at or near the top of the SEC and be a Final 4 threat year in and year out. This year will be no exception.

3.) Arkansas (#11)

Year 1 under Cal brought Arkansas right back to relevance, and while they weren’t at the top of the SEC he did finally get them rolling as the year went on, seeing them finish 8-5 in the league and get to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Rick Pitino and St. John’s. I think that positive momentum continues into this year, with 4 major contributors back, some international talent and most importantly those two 5-star FR guards who should come in and give them instant pop scoring the ball. They developed into a top-20 team defensively last year, which will need to continue for them to finish where I have them this year. My expectation if that does happen is that the FR guards give them a lift on the other end and all of a sudden you have a team that plays with physicality, the way they did last year, and can score at much higher level. They certainly lost guys like Thiero and Aidoo who helped them on D, but they played stretches without them and the young guys played well. I think we see a jump from Karter Knox and Billy Richmond who both emerged down the stretch and that, combined with the incoming talent, should vault the Razorbacks into contention in the SEC. Cal’s best teams at UK were consistently top-20 defensively, and while it fell off the last few years much of that was due to relying solely on FR that just couldn’t get it down quick enough. The mix of returning experience with some FR adding in where they fit to me is a much more solid approach and should drive them to taking a step forward in year 2.

4.) Alabama (#13)

Nate Oats continues to roll with the Tide as he’s navigated them to 5 straight tourneys, 4 of which they made it to the 2nd weekend, including last year’s Elite 8 run. Throw in a regular season title and 3 straight top-3 finishes overall in the SEC and it’s clear this is one of the best programs, not just in the SEC, but in the entire country right now. With all of that said, this might be his least talented team on paper that he’s had in a couple of years. While I still think they’re a top-15 team probably, the incoming FR are not elite and the transfers are more solid than great, and ultimately they don’t have that All-American potential player that we’ve come accustomed to seeing here under Oats. The backcourt of Philon/Holloway/Wrightsell will be fun to watch push the ball and fire away from 3, but they’re undersized and not the best defensively. I think Bethea could be a wildcard as he was a 5-star recruit to Miami last year and could give them more size at the guard spot, so if he can up his shooting numbers he could fit right in. They are also going to need transfer big man Williamson to be impactful as he should share the center load with returning Soph Sherrell who did show promise last year. Don’t get me wrong the talent is still here, but at the end of a close game who are you trusting with the ball in his hands to get it done? In the past it was guys like Mark Sears or Brandon Miller, but honestly Philon and Holloway have been pretty erratic so far in their careers. I’m worried about the defense regressing and same with their overall efficiency offensively. Small step back for Bama, but still a tourney team that is always going to be dangerous in March if they get hot from deep.

5.) Tennessee (#14)

The Final 4 continues to elude the Tennessee program under Rick Barnes, as they’ve now been to back-to-back Elite 8’s and 4 total Sweet 16’s over the last few years but haven’t been able to break through. This year might be a bit tougher, as this is the team with probably the most question marks for me coming into the season because nearly all of the production from last year’s team is gone. They are going to be relying heavily on transfer PG Ja’Kobi Gillespie and FR phenom Nate Ament. The latter is the guy who is likely going to have to shoulder the offensive load, as there really isn’t a ton of proven scoring and playmaking outside of Gillespie, who will need to be the Robin to Ament’s Batman. The next question is will Barnes be able to get all of these newcomers up to snuff on the defensive side of the ball, something we’ve come to expect from the Vols with him as the head man. They have been top-5 defensively each of the past 5 seasons, which is pretty remarkable, and really only Houston can come anywhere close to that kind of consistency on that end over that time span. The culture is there, but can it be preserved without the roster continuity that we’ve seen in the past? Even if it does and they’re back to being a top-5 team defensively, then we turn our attention back to the guard play and that’s the scary thing. Gillespie will run the show, but is LA Tech transfer Amaree Abram ready to step right into SEC play? What about the Israeli guard Burg? Or maybe it’s top-75 recruit Evans? I’ve used enough question marks to get my point across I believe. I trust Barnes enough to consider this Vols team a top-20 team going in, I mean most programs after the top-5 or so have questions, but it might be bumpy out of the gates as he searches for those answers. Either way, you’re going to at least want to tune in to see Ament who should be a top-5 pick and will heavily impact their ceiling this year.

6.) Auburn (#20)

Speaking of question marks, what on earth should we expect from this Auburn program this year now that only Tahaad Pettiford remains? That of course includes former HC Bruce Pearl who just a few days ago as of writing this retired and left the keys to the program to his son Steven. Almost an entirely new roster, a somewhat new coaching staff, at least at the top…what do we do with that? Well, I’m going to try and focus on the talent at hand, and it’s certainly there for this to be a top-25 team despite the turbulence felt in the fall. Pettiford is an All-American caliber guard now that he can run the show and he’ll be joined by Keyshawn Hall who scored at an elite level with UCF last year as a hybrid 3/4 man. Not only that, international big Jovic has promise as well, so there are options here for them offensively. Depth is going to be a concern though there’s no doubt about that, as they’re simply forced to rely on JUCO guys and FR to fill out their rotation. They may not need them to score double figures but the FR Williams-Adams and Magwood along with the DII/JUCO transfers are going to need to provide quality minutes there’s no way around it. So, what I’m saying is they’re top heavy, with at the very least a 1-2 combo in Pettiford and Hall that should ball out every night and get them into the upper half of the conference. In order to push further than that they need Murphy and Jovic to be solid contributors and some other guard to emerge to help Pettiford out. All of that is ignoring the fact their head coach just left the program. Expectations should still be high due to the talent, but asking Steven Pearl to have this much success might be asking too much. We’ll see how it plays out.

7.) Texas

Well the Rodney Terry experiment has come to its inevitable conclusion as he got worse YOY in each of his 3 full seasons after taking over for Chris Beard. In comes a proven vet in Sean Miller who has not only retained some holdovers from last year, a tough thing to do in today’s environment, but also brought in some very nice pieces to fit around them. The trio of Pope/Mark/Weaver give them stability in the backcourt, and you can see based on who was brought in Miller is comfortable with those guys as he focused mostly on the 3-5 positions. We know his play style is a fast paced game with a wide open offense, as we’ve seen it at both Arizona and Xavier. He brought in guys like Cam Heide who is athletic and can really shoot it, but also guys like Wilcher and Swain who prefer to get out and run and attack downhill from the wing spot. Inside the german transfer Duru should come right in and have a role at the 4 spot with mid-major transfers like Traore and Vokietaitis looking to play the 4/5 spot as well. It’s much more of a question mark what you’ll get from that group, and that’s the hesitation as rebounding and protecting the paint could be a major concern. I don’t doubt they’ll be able to score, but much like Miller’s prior stops at Xavier and Arizona, the defensive end will tell the story in terms of how much success they have. They seem like a borderline top-25 team that should make the tourney, but again, if they can’t defend or rebound they could fall short of that. I’m betting on Miller and the guards, but I’m not super confident.

8.) Mississippi St

It is indisputable that Chris Jans is a fantastic HC in college basketball, now getting the Mississippi St Bulldogs to 3 straight tourney’s after they made it just once the 13 seasons prior to his arrival. They happen to be 0-3 in the dance, but eventually they are going to break through in my opinion. They have one of the best scoring guards in the SEC back in Josh Hubbard, and while much of the production outside of him has parted ways, the incoming group is solid and should position them right back in the middle of this conference. Epps alongside Hubbard gives them a solid 1-2 punch in the backcourt, and guys like Achor, Walker and Ballard give them solid pieces up front as well. They also welcome in 3 top-100 recruits who will hopefully stick around and develop under Jans so he can try and sustain some cohesion going forward. I will be interested to see the style of play, as to start his tenure Jans had this program mucking games up, playing a physical brand of ball that produced top-10 defenses, they just struggled to score. It flipped by year 3 where they were a top-25 offense but barely top-50 on D. All 3 years ended about the same, but how they got there was much different, especially the pace as they went from 336th to 127th. Either way, I don’t see this roster competing with the top of the league, but they certainly could get back into the dance as a 8-10 seed and try and take another step forward by winning a tourney game.

9.) Ole Miss

I am a noted Chris Beard stan so I tend to have his team’s a bit higher than most in the preseason because I do believe he’s one of the best coaches in the country. It took him just to year 2 at Ole Miss to start doing things that hadn’t been done in 24 years in Oxford by getting the Rebs to the Sweet 16. Almost all of their production were Seniors though, so really only Malik Dia is back as a major contributor, so it will be tough to maintain that same level of success. The biggest question I had when looking at the roster was AJ Storr…was last year an aberration or is he really just cashing a check? Beard’s #1 priority has to be to get Storr to buy in and play hard, because if he does that he’s a fantastic player and could be their leading scorer and a main reason they get back to the dance this year. Around him guys like Scott, Johnson and Perry all come from P5 schools and are looking for expanded roles. They have promise I’ll say that, but this could easily fall short, especially if Storr is not a reliable double digit scorer and a complete no-show on D again. The frontcourt is full of guys Beard loves as they’re undersized but athletic, which helps with his high pressure defensive style as he’s historically played small ball 5’s so they can switch 1-5. He shifted back to that last year and transformed them from 141st on D to top-25. I expect them to defend well again, and if Storr buys in they could be a top-25 team, but I’m hesitant on that. There’s a chance he plays lazy D and Beard does exactly what Self did and barely plays him. Even if that happens I think they can make the tourney, that’s how much I respect Beard, but they’ll be scratching and clawing down the stretch to get there.

10.) Vandy

Mark Byington deserves a ton of credit for what he did with Vandy last year, bringing in almost an entirely new roster and taking that team to the tourney. He is forced to do that again basically, as he saw 8 guys hit the portal and in turn brought in 8 new faces via the portal. They do get 2 starters back with Nickel and McGlockton back as the starting frontcourt, but they’ll likely hope that Jalen Washington from UNC can be the starting 5 and actually give them some size inside after starting those 2 at just 6’7″ last year down the stretch at the 4/5 spots. The backcourt is entirely overhauled, and while the metric sites seem to like all that they added, it looks to me like a lot of inefficient scorers, relying on a guy like Frankie Collins who is now on his 4th team in 4 years, to run the show. There are some nice pieces here don’t get me wrong, with guys like James and Miles already proving they can produce at the P5 level. My concern with them is on the defensive side of the ball, and my mind is blown at what sites like KP and Miya have them ranked preseason on that end given how bad they were last year and how bad Byington teams have historically played on that end. I for one, do not expect them to transform into a top-25 defense like KP does, as Byington has never even had a top-70 team defensively. He wants to play fast and score, defense seems to be an after thought. They should rebound better, maybe defend the paint better with Washington, but I still don’t see it being the emphasis that it needs to be to get to that level. Because of that I think they’re a bubble team that will be right on the border of in or NIT, and while he proved his ability to build the roster last year and get them to play well offensively, it cannot be overstated how difficult it is to do that and get a team to be elite defensively. I don’t see that happening, unlike some computers.

11.) Georgia

Similar to Beard at Ole Miss this is just a bet on Mike White who I really think is building something at a school where most could care less because it’s so heavily a football school. They made the dance last year for the first time since 2015, and while they didn’t get their first win since 2002, you feel like that was a major step to just get there again. I like that he has kept a few of his recruits with guys like Cain, Cyril and James all coming back, and this group of transfers is actually pretty exciting. Catchings was a top-50 recruit with good size and can really shoot it, and the guards coming in to help Cain all have shown promise and have multiple years of eligibility aside from Bailey. Really what I trust from White is that his teams are going to play hard and play well defensively. I don’t know if the talent will mesh or what the ceiling is, but I do think the guys coming back can develop and take a step forward and I like the promise of the transfer guys. They have gone from 132–>58–>32 defensively over his 3 years, so I would expect that his standard and culture has been established. The question will be can they score enough with these uber-talented SEC teams to compete and find their way back into the dance. I’m not sure of that, but I do think it’s an underrated roster and White is an underrated coach who has done a good job here. Bubble team is my expectation, with the acknowledgement they may not be able to score well enough to be a tourney team.

12.) Mizzou

Have to give Dennis Gates his flowers here because heading into last year this program, and his reputation, were in total flux. Year 1 saw them make a surprise tourney run and win a game, and then the wheels fell of and they went 0-18 in the SEC in 2024. Remarkably, the administration stuck with Gates, as did a good portion of the team, and with some transfer help they quickly rebounded to make another tourney appearance last year. Once again, Gates is welcoming back a good portion of last year’s roster, with returning starters Mark Mitchell, Anthony Robinson and Trent Pierce all back. The bigger thing I’ve been watching is he’s retaining both FR and transfers in, so the guys are buying into what he’s selling here even with that disaster results wise in 2024. All of that said, they did lose some very important pieces in the backcourt, as Grill, Bates, Perkins and Warrick were all big time contributors and integral to their success. So, how are they backfilling? Well, they’re going to turn to transfers Jayden Stone and Sebastian Mack plus top-100 recruit Boateng who they’ll need to make a SO jump. Therein-lies the reason for them being this low in my mind, as they were a top-10 offense both years Gates got them to the tourney, and I’m not feeling that great about Mack and Stone, both guys who have struggled from 3. They have never defended well under Gates overall, but their 2 good seasons they were top-10 in steal %. That’s the goal here, playing fast and high pressure D that generates steals by gambling. Don’t succeed and you’re out of position and give up a bucket. In summary, I see regression on both ends. Maybe Stone and Mack deliver, maybe they defend the paint better and generate steals at the same rate, but that’s too much to overcome in my opinion to see them repeat last year’s success.

13.) Texas A&M

Texas A&M is now the latest victim of Buzz Williams’ desire to abandon programs he has built up, and they now have to turn to Bucky McMillan who has spent the last few years running wild at Samford in the SoCo. He is going to have the Aggies playing his run and gun style but there is no reason for me to believe this hodge podge of transfers under Bucky is going to play even a lick of defense. Yes, I’m willing to admit the talent level coming in here is actually good enough for them to compete in the SEC, with guys like Pop Isaacs, Mgbako and Griffin all proven guys at the P5 level. It just screams of an AAU pick-up style of play where they just push the pace, launch from deep and play zero defense. Bucky never had a top-100 defense at Samford and actually only cracked the top-200 once, which was his lone trip to the tourney in 2024. That team was 15th in the country at forcing TO’s, so if there’s a glimmer of hope here is that they adopt that havoc style of defense and these guys buy into that and can generate TO’s with a high pressure style of play. The issue he had at Samford was they took a lot of chances, gambled and got out of position, so their FG% allowed was abysmal. That’s what I expect from them this year, and while they should be able to score with anyone it’s not going to be enough in a league this tough from top to bottom.

14.) Oklahoma

Porter Moser finally had a breakthrough of sorts last year with the Sooners as he finally got them to the dance in year 4. Unfortunately for him almost that entire team is gone, headlined by Jeremiah Fears heading to the NBA early. It’s going to be tough sledding for him but there is a tiny glimmer of hope considering the top end talent that he got in the portal. All 4 of these transfers should start, with the 5th starter up in the air. That takes you to the guys beyond that top 4, which is a giant question mark with returning guys that haven’t proven production at this level, coming from mid-major schools, JUCO, Denmark and of course high school. At the end of the day, I think the transfers keep the ship afloat but it is impossible to predict what kind of help those guys are going to have around them, much less how they gel and play together. Individually they are very good college basketball players, but how they come together and how they’re supported is a complete unknown and why I am keeping them down here. They are certainly not without hope to get back to the tourney, which is the crazy thing about the SEC as there are now 14 teams who legitimately enter the season with hopes to get to the tourney. I don’t think the Sooners will be one of them, but if they’re fighting on the bubble come February I wouldn’t be surprised by any means.

15.) LSU

I don’t really know what’s going on with Matt McMahon at LSU and I’m not really sure anyone cares in the administration. He has 3 seasons under his belt and has underperformed in each of them, with his best finish 88th in Kenpom. In fact, he has finished >35 spots lower than their preseason ranking each of those 3 seasons, meaning the talent on the roster is greater than the results we are seeing. Doing less with more year after year is usually a cause for firing, but we march on with McMahon in Baton Rouge. We are essentially looking at a team with a compilation of mid-major talent, and while they’re proven at that level we’re talking about what is now the best conference in the sport. You’re not competing with Florida/Kentucky/Alabama with a bunch of mid-major guys. Can some guys rise up and contribute, even at a high level sometimes, yes. But when that’s most of your roster it’s just not going to work. He did get 3 top-100 recruits so I’ll give him credit there, but his ability to hold on to them as Sophomore’s in the past has been essentially 0. Again, every year he has wildly missed expectations and this year is the lowest starting point yet. Not great.

16.) South Carolina

It is starting to look like the 2024 trip to the NCAA tourney was more of a one-off for Lamont Paris than a sign of momentum here at S. Carolina. I do think he’s a good coach but he appears to not be getting the resources needed to compete in the SEC right now. Most of the talent is gone from last year’s team that won just 2 conference games, and maybe that includes some addition by subtraction if you’re trying to be positive, but it’s never a good sign when that many guys are fleeing the program. The bigger issue is what is coming in to replace it as there are 4 low rated recruits and 6 transfers that frankly are not moving the needle besides the return of Meechie Johnson. It’s pretty clear this is the least talented roster on paper and given Paris has 2 seasons under his belt in which he won just 5 combined SEC games, there’s precedent for the Gamecocks to finish last. Yes, 2024 happened, but I’m looking at that as an outlier at this point, especially given the gap in talent.