Rinse and repeat for Duke right now as they continue to roll in top FR classes that produce one-and- done NBA talent while competing at the top level of the sport. Jon Scheyer has made a seamless transition to HC after Coach K’s retirement and seems to be elevating each year, with last year’s ACC title and Final 4 trip major feathers in his cap as he continues to prove himself. What’s most impressive is he’s getting the more unheralded guys to stick around, which helps with roster continuity and means he doesn’t have to rely on the portal. They are up there with Purdue/Houston/UConn in terms of being able to hold on to guys and develop them into great players, which feels old school at this point with how much roster turnover there is. Now to this year, as we have 4 more one-and-done prospects joining that group of 6 returners all looking to fill the void left behind by the 5 NBA draft picks from last year’s group. The Boozer twins are the big name tickets, but Dame Sarr is expected to come in and be a major impact guy and Khamenia is also highly regarded and should push returning wing Isaiah Evans for time. It feels like Boozer/Foster/Evans in the backcourt with Sarr and the other Boozer inside, but they also have more experienced guys in Brown and Ngongba at their disposal as well. It’s an embarrassment of riches for Scheyer as even if the youngsters aren’t ready right away he has a group of returning guys that could be a competitive starting 5 themselves. The ceiling obviously is going to be determined by the FR and their ability to be productive, and Cam Boozer already looks the part. They may take a small step back defensively I will say, as Flagg and Maluach inside made life very difficult for teams with their length, but they’ve been consistently strong on that end under Scheyer even without those 2 so major regression not expected. At the end of the day, they should be one of the best teams in the country and really only challenged by Louisville at the top of the ACC, with a goal of a return to the Final 4 very realistic, especially if the FR can be stars.
2.) Louisville (#12)
Pat Kelsey has my complete and total respect after what he did last year, taking a Louisville program that was dead and instantly reviving them. To paint the picture, they had endured 2 seasons that saw them go 5-35 in ACC play prior to his arrival. Immediately, he got them to the tourney and a staggering 18-2 record in ACC play. Unreal, and one of the best stories in all of college hoops last year, and it looks like it should continue. He brings back a major piece in J’Vonne Hadley and also promising big man Kasean Prior who was really good for 7 games until he got injured for the season. Top-50 recruit Khani Rooths is back as well and Khalifa and Rodgers should be good depth pieces. The story is going to be the backcourt additions, and man do I love a HC who has some self awareness and understands how to build a roster to fit his system. Kelsey loves playing fast and launching from deep, and the transfer guards coming in all scored 14+ ppg while shooting over 40% from 3 last year, with Conwell and McKneeley doing it at the P5 level. On paper it’s one of the most dangerous teams in the country in terms of outside shooting, as Hadley also shot well at 38% from 3 last year. I fully expect them to leap into the top-10 offensively this year, as they kind of struggled at times shooting and finished below 33% from the outside. That number is going to jump up dramatically with this backcourt. On top of the transfers they added 5-star freshman PG Mikel Brown Jr, who is undoubtedly going to be an important playmaker and has a chance to average a lot of assists with all of these shooters around him. With all of that said it’s pretty obvious what I think of this Louisville team, and while I won’t predict them to win the natty, if they can defend at the same level they did last year they are clearly a Final 4 threat with all this firepower offensively.
3.) North Carolina
There’s no way around it, this program is slipping under Hubert Davis, with last year’s disappointment just the latest step toward Davis losing control. Even though they were propped up by the committee and given a bid when they likely shouldn’t have been, they still lost in the true 1st round and now see an insane amount of talent leave the program. Not only that, look at what is coming in? Is that the kind of class you would expect from what is supposed to be a top-tier program in the country? I don’t know if he’s not tapped into the resources necessary to hit on the big transfers, or simply guys don’t want to play for him, but to be forced to rely on a guard that scored 10 ppg at Colorado St to replace RJ Davis is a recipe for regression. To say the least, there’s a huge drop off from the top-2 to the rest of the conference, and while there are other programs who are looking to rise up and challenge those 2, the Tar Heels appear to be sprinting the opposite direction. Despite the negative framing, they still should be in the 3rd to 5th range in the ACC, which speaks to the weakness of the ACC in hoops, but this school expects to compete with Duke at the top and be a threat to make the Final 4 every year. Davis earned a longer leash due to the run they went on in year 1 to the title game, but let’s not forget they were a disappointing 8 seed that year. A couple of years later they had a good year, earned a 1 seed and lost in the Sweet 16. My prediction is they are still an ok team, with a strong frontcourt behind Veesar and the 5-Star FR Wilson, but the guard play will not be good enough for them to be a top-25 team. My attitude is more a reflection of how far below expectations for the program they are, and less how bad they will be, as they won’t be bad per se. At the end of the day, given the weakness of the ACC, they probably will be on the bubble again begging the committee to throw them a bone yet again. So how long does this mega brand lift an incompetent HC?
4.) NC State
A program looking to move in the opposite direction of the Tar Heels is this NC State program, as they’ve hired Will Wade from McNeese and he has completely transformed this roster. I will say, we’ve seen these rebuilds have wide ranging results, but what we know about Wade is he can build a program, whether that includes breaking all the rules is a different discussion. He did it at Chattanooga, LSU and then again at McNeese, so the man can coach and evaluate talent. He has brought in a big transfer class of course and it’s headlined by Darrion Williams who will be the man here and is surrounded by some intriguing pieces. The backcourt will likely be some combination of Holloman/Arceneaux/Breed/Copeland. Those guys are solid but not elite by any means, and the frontcourt leaves a little to be desired as well with Ven-Allen Lubin likely the best bet to form an undersized 4/5 combo with Williams. They clearly will lack size, but each of Wade’s last 3 seasons as a HC his teams have been top-15 at generating TO’s so he’s very comfortable playing smaller, more athletic guys that can switch, trap and generally apply pressure defensively. They will struggle to rebound but he hopes to generate more possessions than they give up in the turnover/offensive rebound battle. My biggest worry is outside shooting as none of the transfers have been consistent shooters from 3. They will have to get out and run and get easy buckets in transition, and when they don’t they’ll turn to guys like Williams and Copeland to create both for themselves and others. It’s not a sure thing by any means, but I do think there’s enough meat on this bone for Wade to have some success in year 1. I would predict a tourney appearance but at best like a 7 seed, more likely 10 or the First 4. A good first step, but certainly not a roster that guarantees future or current success.
5.) Notre Dame
I will be honest last year was a disappointment from Coach Shrewsberry and this Irish team, but there were injuries to their top players that impacted it for sure. I entered last year with hope it would be the breakthrough under Shrews, and a year later I’m doubling down, betting that I was simply a year early on my prediction. What I know is this guy can really coach the game, and judging by the fact they were under .500 and only 1 guy transferred out of the program it’s clear he has these guys bought in. Burton is a legit 1st team ACC guy and should be talked about more on All-American lists, and he certainly will be if they turn things around and compete in the ACC. If he and Braeden Shrewsberry can stay healthy this year they form a dynamic backcourt, and they will be surrounded by guys like Sir Mohammed and Cole Certa who are back looking to make SO jumps after coming in as top recruits, as well as another top recruit in Jalen Haralson. As a whole this should be the most talented they’ve been at the 1-4 spots since Shrews has been here, so long as the young guys are developing. The key figure is going to be Carson Towt and how he is able to hold down the 5 spot. He averaged a double-double at Northern Arizona and for this team to have success he has to be the starting 5 and give them something like 8 and 8 a night. With this I’m betting on coaching, development and the idea that the old school way of building a program can still work in college ball. Yes, you can build through the portal with endless money, but I firmly believe you can still recruit, develop and then compete as long as you can get the guys to buy in and stick around. He’s done the latter, now we just need to see the former come to fruition. I think it does this year and they sneak back into the tourney as a dangerous team behind Burton.
6.) Syracuse
Syracuse appears to be yet another victim of poor hiring in the ACC as Red Autry has gone just 20-22 in a bad ACC over his first 2 seasons at the helm. This has to be his last chance to prove he can succeed as the HC here, as the talent on the roster is plenty good enough to get to the tournament, and certainly shouldn’t wind up 115th in the final KP rankings like last year. They brought in Nait George to run the point next to JJ Starling giving them a very strong backcourt. Those guys will be complimented by Kingz and the freshmen Sadiq White and Kiyan Anthony (son of legendary Carmelo Anthony). The added excitement of having Melo’s son on the roster is only going to heighten the expectations from the fanbase, and frankly where I have them in this preview is where the expectation should be. Freeman is a beast inside and the backcourt is full of guys who can score the rock. The onus is on Autry to get them to play winning basketball and not like a glorified AAU team. That is the big question, and I could go on and on as to why that will or will not happen. What I’ve chosen to do is properly lay out what should be expected, independent of whether or not I believe Autry has what it takes to accomplish the feat. As I’ve said before, coaching is largely measured by your success relative to expectations, so to properly set them here at a tourney berth and being competitive with the upper echelon in this conference sets us up to fairly judge Autry. To this point he’s done less with more, so we’ll see if he can finally turn the talent here into winning.
7.) SMU
I actually have some hope for what Andy Enfield is doing here with SMU as I think they over-performed their talent level last year, and while they did lose Chuck Harris I think the combo of Pierre and Washington could make them more explosive this year. Boopie Miller will still run the show, and they should get some development from Yigitoglu who was a bright spot in year 1 here. They will need some of these young guys to get up to speed quickly though as their depth is mostly going to be from this big group of FR. As an aside, being a Pacers fan and seeing the name Jermaine O’Neal Jr popup is both a nice bump of nostalgia as well as a reminder of how old I am, but even aside from my own connections it is wild as someone born in the 90’s how many of these NBA player’s sons are entering college hoops right now. Back to the issue at hand though, how good can this team really be? I actually do think the ceiling here could be squeaking into the tourney, as Miller is dynamic and I do think the transfers in will help replace what was lost and maybe even elevate them. I’ll say it again, but a couple of the FR absolutely have to emerge and give them productive minutes off the bench, and if that happens they will have a fighting chance to breakthrough and get back to the dance.
8.) Virginia
Unfortunately, we aren’t even halfway through the ACC and I’m already beyond the teams I have hope for making the tourney this year, and boy do we have a ways to go. We’ll start with this Virginia team that is still desperately trying to get a grip on things after Tony Bennett’s sudden retirement prior to last season. They endured one disappointing season under interim Ron Sanchez that saw them go sub .500 for the first time since Bennett’s first year here in 2010 and quickly moved on to rising star Ryan Odom. Odom has made stops at UMBC (where he famously beat UVA as a 16 seed), Utah St and VCU, taking all of them to the dance by year 2 there. If you’re a UVA fan that’s where your hope lies, trusting he will be able to do here what he did at his previous stops with fewer resources. I already think in year 1 there is at least some hope you’ll see a step in the right direction, as the backcourt looks like it could be pretty strong with Malik Thomas, Dallin Hall and Jacari White. The strength of that trio, and even beyond them to guys like Lewis and Tillis, is outside shooting, as they have 4 guys who shot 39% or better last year. Inside is a big question mark but hey, for a school that has played at a snails pace and struggled to score maybe a year of scoring with fun guards will be a breath of fresh air, even if they struggle to rebound and defend the paint. I expect a step in the right direction but not an instant turnaround, with eyes on year 2 under Odom being the year they get back into contention.
9.) Clemson
Out of respect to Brad Brownell and what he is usually able to accomplish I have Clemson right here in the middle of the league, but it would not be hyperbole to suggest this is one of the worst rosters on paper he has had. Nick Davidson coming in gives them a glimmer of hope, but ultimately it’s a bunch of young FR and mid major transfers trying to compete in what is supposed to be a power conference league. What you can learn by looking at his tenure here though is he has had issues building sustained success YOY. I fear this will be one of those regression years as he tries to reload with young talent that he eventually develops into a tourney worthy team a season or two down the road. He faces challenges that some of these SEC programs do where the focus is fully on football, so his success is a major credit to his coaching ability and knack for finding unheralded guys and developing them into productive ACC players. Is this the 9th most talented roster in the conference on paper? No, but I still think he finds a way to get them into the upper half of this league, but that still likely won’t be good enough to get them to a 3rd straight tourney. Step back for Clemson but not anything abnormal for what we’ve seen under Brownell.
10.) Miami
Well, I have no idea what to make of this Miami program as they move on from the Jim Larranaga era that actually saw some successful seasons at various periods, but it really fell off the last couple of years. Being Miami they always are able to bring in talent, so new head man Jai Lucas gets his first crack at being a D1 HC in quite a generous spot in south Florida. He has a trio of transfers that give them some hope in Donaldson, Reneau and Washington, but as we all know a couple of transfers that scored in double figures before does not equate to wins. At the end of the day I have zero clue what style of play Lucas is going to try and put out there or what identity this team will take, but he’s stated he’s a defensive guy which would be a welcome site here where defense has mostly been an afterthought in recent years. I would be shocked if he was able to take this roster and turn it into a tourney team, but you can never say never, and that top trio I mentioned earlier could be good enough if they do play tough D. At the end of the day, this preview probably told you very little other than that Lucas is the new HC, but genuinely how could we know anything beyond that given his lack of experience? That fact could make this a very awesome story if he hits, or a very disappointing hire because this should be a program that can be a top contender in this conference given its location and resources.
11.) Stanford
The Cardinal haven’t been relevant in hoops in a long time, but Kyle Smith enters year 2 with legitimate momentum after taking Stanford above .500 in conference play for the first time since 2018. The bad news is the best talent is gone, but look at that roster retention, that has to be fantastic news for anyone that cares about this program as he clearly has this group bought in to what he’s selling. Do I expect the talent to be good enough to compete? No. However, what I know about Kyle Smith is he is able to extract more out of a roster than you can see on paper, so while the overall returning production is low, the pedigree of talent is low and the incoming guys are unheralded, I think they’ll be feisty and play very hard. That will be good enough to keep them out of the cellar, and while I think the conference record may take a step back, I think there’s an outside chance a star emerges and all of a sudden you have a team to take serious. That’s all my belief in Kyle Smith who built Wazzu into a tourney team with limited talent, primarily by slowing the game down and playing exceptional D. I expect that and because of that I expect them to finish better than the roster suggests.
12.) Georgia Tech
It felt like the 8-4 finish to the season last year could have been the start of something here for Damon Stoudamire, but with the amount of turnover it feels like it’s going to be hard to sustain it. The good news is they played much better defensively, and down the stretch they picked up wins over Louisville and Clemson who were both tourney teams. 3 key pieces are back, but the rest of the production is gone and will have to be replaced by an pretty underwhelming incoming class. The transfers are highlighted by 2 mid-major guards, with Washington likely to start at the point. I’m not going to even criticize Stoudamire in terms of coaching, he just doesn’t have the talent to really compete, and that’s where the criticism comes as he’s in control of that as a talent evaluator. Maybe he’s not getting the resources needed, but whatever the reason they are going to continue to be in the bottom half of this conference without an influx of talent. Don’t get me wrong, they won’t be awful, but in terms of breaking through and seeing a major step forward this isn’t going to be the year, and it’s year 3. Is it ever going to come? So far, he hasn’t cracked the top-100 in final KP standings, so maybe we start with that as a next step.
13.) Wake Forest
I really thought last year was going to be the breakthrough for Steve Forbes at Wake as he finally seemed to have the talent to get to the tourney. They were in great shape, albeit barely, as February came to a close and then they dropped two inexplicable games to Virginia and NC State who were sub-100 ranked teams and it burst their bubble. That core group is now gone, with only a couple of the younger holdovers still around. I have a hard time believing they will be as good as last year’s team based on the talent, but guys like Juke Harris and Omaha Biliew were highly regarded out of high school so maybe they can break out with a larger role. The transfers are all inefficient shooters outside of Mason, so I imagine that will be a major struggle, not to mention the obvious lack of size with nobody over 6’9″ on the roster. Ultimately I’m burned by my faith in them last year and with all that talent gone to waste I just can’t believe in Forbes, not to mention the talent on paper doesn’t jump out at you anyway. Back to irrelevance for Wake this year.
14.) Pitt
I have trouble year in and year out buying into Pitt and Jeff Capel, who has been mostly underwhelming over his 7 seasons at the helm, turning in just 1 trip to the tournament and just 2 seasons above .500 in conference play. What I’m saying is, he’s struggling to attract/evaluate/develop talent to the extent he can compete in the upper half of this conference on a consistent basis. Then I look at this roster and the production that was lost from an already struggling team and wonder how anyone would anticipate this being a step forward for this program. The only way this prediction is way off is if the Australian transfers hit and lead the show alongside Corhen and a developing Cummings. That 1-2 punch should be pretty good, but around them will be a ton of question marks in terms of scoring. Add on to that they’ve only been top-50 defensively once in his 7 years, so don’t expect much on that end either. Long story short, both the on paper talent and history under Capel give me very little hope for Pitt to be relevant in the ACC this year.
15.) Virginia Tech
Mike Young got off to a hot start at VA Tech, getting them to 2 tourney’s in his first 3 seasons, but it’s now been 3 straight seasons at .500 or below in ACC play with no tickets to the dance. This may be his last run at it as I feel like this program does care about being relevant in hoops at least a little bit. My issue with his coaching is they never really are great defensively and they play a slow pace, so they will have to be uber efficient on offense to sustain success. The transfers they brought in at the guards spots are anything but that historically, and while I like Hansberry inside to pair with Lawal I just don’t see the guard play being good enough. They were one of the most turnover prone teams in the country last year so that will need to be rectified as well. I don’t know man, I know they have a coaching search in football upcoming but if I was in Blacksburg and cared about hoops I think I’d be ready to move on. There just seems to be too much to correct from last year, and maybe the international guys, specifically Neoklis Avdalas who has generated some buzz, can come in and help more than I’m giving credence to, but at the end of the day I just don’t see it with this roster in terms of getting into the upper half of the league.
16.) Florida St
Alright so Leonard Hamilton is out after some really good years that were bookended by a nosedive to irrelevancy that saw them finish no better than 79th (KP) or with more than 17 wins over the last 4 seasons. To replace him? A first year HC in Luke Loucks who returns to his alma matter after a coaching stint in the NBA as an assistant, a growing trend we’re seeing across the sport these days. I would imagine we’ll see a NBA style of play here, although that’s not guaranteed it just has to be the assumption as we’ve seen it elsewhere, check out BYU. The issue is the roster as it’s just not very good, albeit with some bright mid-major players you just need more than that to open things up and play free and loose at the college level. They have some good 3 point shooters, but inside has almost no proven commodities and all of the production essentially is at the mid-major level, so assuming it’s all going to translate seamlessly would be naive given what we’ve seen across the sport. Do I think this hire will be a failure? Frankly, I don’t think anyone could possibly know, but year 1 with this roster it would be a major accomplishment to push for a. .500 record in conference. In the ACC that doesn’t get you close to the dance, but it would be a major step toward attracting talent back to Tallahassee, a program that just 5-10 years ago that was a perennial contender in the ACC.
17.) Cal
Another program that is kind of stuck in the mud here with Cal, as they haven’t been relevant since Cuonzo Martin was here almost a decade ago. They’re on HC number 3 since then, with Mark Madsen now entering year 3 trying to get this program off the mat. He has seemingly made no progress, but he’s been bringing in decent talent and he has finished better than predicted by the likes of KP each of his first 2 years. The issue is the starting point, as even with the improvement they have yet to crack the top-100. The incoming talent this year once again provides a touch of hope, as they have some power conference dudes like Chris Bell, Dai Dai Ames and Justin Pippen looking for bigger roles. They have a few guys back as well so hope isn’t at 0 by any means, but when we say hope I really mean to just take another step forward, not to breakthrough by any means. I would be impressed if they could finish above .500 overall and push for .500 in conference play. I doubt they’ll get there, but maybe they could crack the top-100 overall and show some signs of life.
18.) Boston College
I hate to be dismissive but after 4 years of Earl Grant going below .500 here, with year 4 being a bottoming out moment at just 4-16 in the ACC, it’s hard to get even remotely excited about the state of this program. There’s some talent here, there’s some returning pieces that were productive, but how much is that really saying when the team won just 4 games in maybe the worst ACC we’ve ever seen. Once they start taking themselves seriously maybe I will. And to be clear, what I mean is no serious program is holding on to a HC that goes below .500 in conference play in his first 4 years with year 4 being the worst. That is cause for firing at any serious program, yet here we sit heading into year 5 with zero being accomplished and zero momentum being build. Suffice it to say, I don’t have much hope for BC this year.
The tournament is finally here so we of course need to check to see where all of these teams sit as we enter the tourney. As I’ve been saying all year, we have 4 dominant teams and it played out as all 4 of them earned a 1 seed as Florida came on strong to end the season and claim the final 1 seed. Everyone loves to proclaim that it’s never as chalk as people think it’s going to be, but if there’s ever a year we see the 1 seeds dominate this would have to be the year. We have only had 4 teams since 2000 enter the tourney with a net Kenpom rating as high as all of our 4 1 seeds have this year. And wouldn’t you know they all made at least the Final 4 with 3 of them getting to the title game. Obviously, anything can happen as always, but you can already bet I will have at least 3 of these teams in my Final 4, with Houston the one I’m concerned about as of writing this due to the J’Wan Roberts injury. If he’s healthy full steam ahead for our all 1 seed Final 4, but if he’s out I would start to look beyond Houston at Tennessee and a sleeper pick being Clemson as the 5 seed in that region. Also, long time readers, how bout that finish to the season for Auburn? Not so crazy now am I…anywho, let’s get it.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Our same trio of elite teams that we’ve been tracking all year long. I would at minimum have these teams in the Elite 8, but watch out for Houston as they have a Strong Enough team Gonzaga potentially in round 2 with J’Wan Roberts last seen in a boot. Also, Clemson as Solid is the 5 that they could see in the Sweet 16 so the path won’t be easy.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Still have Auburn just a step off the pace but as you can see in the numbers teams here are still very successful in March, especially the first weekend. I will have Auburn in my Final 4, but losing to Florida in a SEC clash.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Tennessee is the team I’m really watching here as they’re borderline Great and looked awesome in the SEC tourney. They are Houston light, with a bit more difficulty scoring, but we could have an opening for them if Houston goes down early, so I’m thinking Tennessee to the Final 4. Iowa St is dealing with injuries so tread lightly there and I already mentioned I’m watching Clemson as a dark horse Elite 8 team.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
Alabama has a good draw with 0 other teams in trustworthy categories until the Elite 8 potential matchup with Duke. If they get knocked off before that I’m looking at Wisconsin who is just outside the Solid group. Texas Tech and Michigan St look like strong Elite 8 picks as well, as Tech has Grinder St. John’s and Sparty gets a beat up Iowa St potentially as the biggest test. Maryland has to get through Florida so I’m stopping them at the Sweet 16 but confident in them and same with A&M.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
Not picking these teams to get past the first weekend, end of story. Don’t play D you don’t win in March.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
St. John’s might be an outlier here because they’re so good on defense but I’m not taking them beyond the Sweet 16 for sure. St. Mary’s night night.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
Not much faith in any of these teams except maybe Arizona/Wisconsin who have some favorable matchups. No Final 4 for sure, probably not past Sweet 16 at best.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
No chance beyond the first weekend for these teams either. Can’t do it won’t do it.
Updated 3/16 – Date following team is date of last edit.
It’s finally Selection Sunday and man what a conversation we have around the final few spots. We are essentially looking at 2 spots available with 5 teams fighting for them. You have IU-Texas-UNC-Xavier-Boise St all in the fight for the final 2 spots in Dayton, with teams like San Diego St, Utah St and Vandy being tossed around for the other 2 but all pretty solidly in the field either way. I give my reasoning for where I think each team winds up, but let me tell you I could see any combination of those 5 being selected for those final 2 spots, as the committee can be difficult to project, especially when it’s this close. I’m leaning IU/Texas due to their volume of Q1 wins and Q1 win %, but Boise would be right there if those are the top-2 category considerations. That can be very shaken up if Memphis and/or VCU loses today though, as that would make the American a 2-bid league and then throw VCU into the mix for the last spot. So, if you’re here as a fan as one of those 5 teams you have to root for Memphis and VCU today.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 56 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. Check out my current bracket projection here.
The lane violation hear round the college hoops world…unbelievable ending to last night’s Duke/UNC game as the Tar Heels stormed back from down 24 to have a FT to tie the game in the dying moments and had it waived off on a lane violation. That loss likely ended their at-large hopes, although there is still a contingent out there who believe they have a chance. I find it hard to believe a team with a 1-12 record in Q1 is going to be given an at-large, it would certainly be unprecedented. The metrics are really their only argument, as they have just 1 win against the projected field. I have IU/Texas ahead of them due to that number, you can’t be 1-11 against the field and beat out teams who have 4+ wins against the field. It would be a crime against humanity to see UNC in the dance at this point, especially with the Mountain West stealing a bid and shrinking things up. (3/15)
Wake is dead after their loss to UNC today. They were in a great spot until they lost a trio of games to Florida St/NC State/Virginia, all outside of Q1 down the stretch. This was just the final nail in the coffin for a team who probably had the talent to be a tourney team but just fell apart in February/March. (3/13)
Well the doomsday scenario for the Hoosiers is playing out as all the teams around them seem to be cashing in on their opportunities and they lost to Oregon. That loss leaves them just 4-13 in Q1, and while they are perfect outside of Q1 they are losing the Q1 win % argument, losing the metrics argument and their best non-con win was Providence (99th). Their argument is essentially, hey remember when we beat Michigan St and Purdue? While it doesn’t sound like a whole lot it actually might be enough this year, with a teams like Xavier/UNC having just 1 Q1 win. In my opinion, they are ahead of UNC due to the 4 Q1 wins and 0 losses outside of Q1, better than the Tar Heels, and ahead of Xavier who has just the 1 Q1 win also. Those 3 are fighting over that last spot or 2, so it may come down to committee preference. Their main issue, and what I would point to if they don’t get in, are the metrics, as they average about 50th in predictive metrics, behind UNC/Xavier/Texas. I still would favor the Hoosiers and their 4 Q1 wins, but it is insanely close and all could be shaken up if Memphis and/or VCU lose today. (3/16)
With the loss yesterday to Iowa the Buckeye’s are likely dead when it comes to an at-large bid. To The Crown they go, although there may still be some people who argue they should be in. I won’t be one of them though, as if you can’t beat a bad Iowa team when your life is on the line I just don’t think you belong in the dance. They do have some really good wins on the resumé but the losses are just too much to make up for, I mean they’re just 3-4 in Q2, is that really better than a UNC that’s 7-0? I do get the Q1 wins are the golden measurement, but at some point you can’t play to the level of your competition so much that you are losing to 5 teams not projected in the tourney.(3/13)
Baylor should be pretty safe unless absolute pandemonium breaks out and the committee sees things a little differently than me. Ultimately I think the strong metrics, strong SOS and 5 Q1 wins will keep them well within the field, the loss to Texas Tech dropped them to 1-11 in Q1(A) games. Their biggest plus is they are 17-3 outside of the elite games, including those 4 Q1 games that fall just outside, so they still have some big wins and do have 4 against the projected field so enough to feel like they will get in and avoid Dayton. (3/15)
W. Virginia: 19-13 (10-10) — Q1: (6-9) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 19 (59) Q1(A): (4-7) NET (51)
While I don’t think the Mountaineers will miss the tourney, they did make things a lot more interesting with their loss to Colorado yesterday. The major separation between them and teams like Indiana/San Diego St is they have 4 wins over top-20 teams, with 3 of those being away from home. That is likely going to be enough to carry them through, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a little closer than we think as the predictive metrics are not great and neither are the result based. It’s really just those massive wins keeping them afloat. They are sitting on the 10 line pretty firmly, and there doesn’t look to be as much bid stealing as last year, so I think with their 6 Q1 wins they should feel pretty safe right now to be in and avoiding Dayton. (3/15)
Xavier battled hard, and at times looked like they’d beat Marquette, but ultimately couldn’t bring it home in the closing stages. Eye test tells me they deserve to be in, but that’s not how this thing works. They are just 1-9 in Q1, but do have some solid Q2 wins over tourney teams UConn/Creighton. Right now I have them the first team out, with Texas/IU being the last 2 in, but honestly I could see 100 people splitting evenly if polled on those 3 teams. It’s razor thin, so it’ll be a nervy couple of days as to have a chance you have to have all the conference tourney’s be won by teams projected in right now. With the Mountain West taking up another bid, it looks even more dire for the Musketeers, as it’s tough to argue them over Texas/IU in my opinion given the lack of big time wins. We’ll see if the committee agrees, or if the American conference can make it even more of a longshot with a Memphis upset. (3/15)
Georgia dropped their chance to make this easy as they lost to Oklahoma last night. That leaves them just 9-12 in Q1/2 as they likely drift back close to the Dayton group. They have just the 4 Q1 wins with the wins over Florida, Kentucky and St. John’s carrying them right now. I think that group of wins will ultimately be enough, and I have them on the 10 line with a possible 9 seed out there depending where you look. I don’t think there’s enough chaos that can happen at this point to bounce them but I don’t want to assume I have them exactly where the committee does, so we’re holding on tight but with a fair amount of confidence. (3/15)
Oklahoma lost a tough one to Kentucky to end their SEC tourney but they did more than enough to secure their bid in my opinion. I don’t see how a team with 7 Q1 wins and as clean of a record outside of Q1 can miss the dance this year. There are just too many teams with worse resumé’s behind them. I actually have them above Georgia due to the volume of top wins but many folks have it swapped, so who knows specifically where they’d fall but I doubt it will be worse than a 10 seed, with a 9 very possible. Again, I’d like to lock but with how screwy the committee can get we’re going to hold off until we see it on Sunday. (3/14)
Arkansas lost to Ole Miss in dramatic fashion today, but thanks to losses by San Diego St/Xavier/Indiana they are solidly in at this point. I don’t think anyone out there has them out of the field, so it would take some major chaos to unfold with bid stealing for them not to get in at this point as they are most likely in the Last 4 Byes territory. Good for Cal and good for this team turning things around and grinding their way in. Things have gotten a little more testy with the Mountain West shakeup but I still have them ahead of the Dayton group, on the 10 seed line. I wouldn’t expect enough chaos to ensue to leave them out, but they’re below Oklahoma and Georgia per me, so it’s a little more nervy as we get through the homestretch.(3/15)
Well, the Commodores have made this interesting as we enter the homestretch, as the loss to Texas dropped them to just 9-12 in Q1/2, keeping them in the bubble conversations. I warned about their horrific non-con schedule that provided them with 0 notable wins being a problem, and I think now they’re being compared to these bubble teams it has caused them to drop quite a bit as they’ve lost 3 straight. Oklahoma and Arkansas simply have better resumé’s right now, and I’m not sure how many people are taking notice of that. That puts them up against the MW teams like Utah St/San Diego St fighting for the last bye to escape Dayton. Right now the big time wins over 5 projected tourney teams are keeping them in the bye territory, but they’re the last one right now with potential bid stealing to come from the American. I think they’re comfy but it wouldn’t shock me to see the committee put them in Dayton. (3/15)
Well, Texas did enough to at least make this a very interesting conversation, even after a loss to Tennessee yesterday. Personally, I think the team with 7 Q1 wins is going to get the nod over the teams with just 1, especially given how many chances Xavier/UNC had. Those are the 3 battling it out right now in my opinion, although some have Indiana out of the field as well, so maybe call it a 4 horse race for the final 2 spots. Give me the teams who have proven they can beat tourney caliber teams more than just a one off. I get the Q2 record argument, but in my opinion the committee has overlooked bad losses in favor of big time wins in the past and I think they do so again with Texas/Indiana getting in. Of course that could change if the bubble shrinks even more Sunday so watch Memphis closely. (3/15)
Utah St. is now in a precarious position, although I do think they’ve done enough to be worthy of being in the field. Their loss to Colorado St late last night shrunk the bubble by a spot as either the Rams or Boise St are going to earn a bid they likely wouldn’t have gotten on their own. The Aggies are clinging to just 2 Q1 wins @ St. Mary’s/San Diego St. Those also happen to be their only wins against the field, and with 3 Q2 losses I’m surprised so many have them in a bye position. That group of wins is not strong, and while the record is inflated it’s tough to argue them over the SEC/Big 12 teams I have ahead of them right now. I think they’re in Dayton pretty firmly, and probably still ahead of IU/Texas but my money would be on either of those 2 in that First 4 game that’s for sure. (3/15)
San Diego St: 20-9 (14-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 63 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (52)
The Aztecs just couldn’t make this one easy as the loss today to Boise St has likely destined them for Dayton. They will stay in the field on the back of a strong non-con showing, with wins over Creighton/Houston, but that last loss hurt a ton. They are 8-8 in Q1/2 with strong SOS numbers, so they’re in to me pretty easily as the top team in Dayton, as it would take 4 bid stealers to knock them out if I’m right. So far there’s only been 1, but I still have them in Dayton pretty safely, although you start getting into the metric arguments as they would be right there with IU as the worst predictives in the field if they make it. Xavier/UNC for example have 10+ average better, but ultimately I think the who you beat and where you beat them argument easily goes to the Aztecs so they should get in, but I’ve been wrong before. (3/15)
Boise lost in the title game which leaves them on the outside looking in to me. They do have a strong case to make, and maybe a stronger one than people would think with those wins over Clemson/St. Mary’s. The problem you see are the really bad losses, especially that Q4 loss but having 4 losses outside of Q1 is a clear negative these other teams don’t have. UNC has just 1, Xavier has 2 and IU has 0. They are right there don’t get me wrong, but ultimately I think the bad losses combined with the low volume of big time wins will leave them just on the outside. Also, we typically see metrics some into play when it’s this close, and among the group fighting for a spot Boise is the worst averaging a 50th ranking in predictive metrics. (3/16)
VCU has made it to the A-10 title game, which has made it very interesting if they were to lose. I would say they would be out and I’ll make my case for why, but there is a contingent out there who would have them in and make the A-10 a bid stealer. Now, let’s assume they lose today, that would make them 5-5 in Q2 and still leave them with just 1 win over a tourney team, Colorado St which has aged a little better with their late season run. Their entire argument would be metrics, which do look favorable with their 3 metric average being 30.66. We would be comparing them to IU/Texas/UNC/Xavier depending on who the committee has given the last 2 spots. All of those teams have at least 1 better win than VCU can offer up, with UNC having the worst case on wins. Texas, for example has beaten 7 tourney teams, with IU having just 2 but also 0 losses outside of Q1 to VCU’s 6 in this scenario. To me, if all you have over a team is predictive metrics, the committee is not going to put you in. If it’s razor thin the metrics can tip the scale, but it’s not close to me among that group fighting for the last spot, so I think a loss to George Mason today for VCU will leave them out of the field. (3/16)
UC Irvine losing in the Big West title game effectively means the two bid Big West dream is dead, as UC San Diego had a much better case than Irvine can offer up. They basically have 1 really solid win, @ UCSD. Their next best win is @ Northern Iowa, so essentially their entire case would be eye test, and you’d at least like to have predictive metrics on your side when you make that argument right? Well their average of the 3 metrics the committee will see is 80.33. There is just no way to rationalize them getting in at this point. (3/16)
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. The domination at the top of the sport continues, and if you are a long time reader you know I’ve pointed out that we have 4 teams that have separated themselves. Duke/Houston/Auburn/Florida are all standing out and should be the only teams discussed as “title favorites”. There are of course other good teams that could win it, but anyone outside of those 4 would be a big surprise, and as unpredictable as the tourney is viewed the winner has been one of the top-6 teams (Tennessee/Bama are 5-6) on Kenpom for 9 straight years and overall 17 of the last 19 years. Yes there are upsets, yes there will always be chaos, but at the end of the day it’s almost always one of the handful of great teams each year that cuts down the nets. So, we have that group and the rest of this is to figure out who we should trust to meet them later on in the tourney and give them a fight.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Duke, Houston and Florida remain Elite and look like the teams to beat in college basketball, along with Auburn who is the best offense in the country and right on the doorstep now defensively. As I said from the get go, we have 4 outstanding teams in the sport this year.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn is back to where they probably should be given how dominant they’ve been, and while they haven’t always shown up defensively they’ve done enough to clearly be the #1 overall seed and are a very trustworthy pick in March right now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Tennessee has finally pushed out of strong enough and into solid, although that’s not a huge needle mover it is nice to see them improving offensively after some big games from Chaz Lanier. The other 3 are mainstays around here and are still firmly a part of the 2nd tier of contenders behind the big 4.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
As expected we lost a couple of teams here after last week with both Purdue and Mizzou dropping off, but surprisingly we added Saint Mary’s who continues to dominate defensively out on the West Coast. Teams like Bama/Wisconsin/Gonzaga have been living here for a long time, and Texas Tech continues to flirt with both Solid and Wannabe as they have at times been great on either end and struggled on either end.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
Kentucky finally has some company in the Matador group again as Mizzou jumps up here after giving up 92 to a bad offensive team in Arkansas. It should also be noted that UK has improved from near 90th defensively to almost cracking the top-60. That is a significant improvement and for a team that can score so well finding a way to defend even at an average level would make them dangerous.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
Same group as last week here as Kansas fell further into Grinder territory with A&M barely sliding in. St. John’s is a common Final 4 pick I’m starting to hear, but around here we will be avoiding taking them into the 2nd weekend much less all the way to San Antonio. Although it should be noted Pitino has lead bad offenses on deep runs before, making up part of that 1.6% and 4.9%.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
Michigan fell way down offensively since we last met, but the team I want to highlight the most is Clemson as they are on the doorstep of Solid if they can just play some better D as we close out the regular season. They’ve proven with their win over Duke they can compete with the best, just have to find more consistency on D as we end the year.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We have teams here who are going in opposite directions, with Louisville still charging forward, nearing the Solid archetype at this point. Then there’s Marquette, who has fallen all the way from “Great” to “Vanilla”, and while they still are in the top-30 they’re barely holding on to relevancy. We also welcome VCU who is dominating the A-10 and finds themselves in the top-30 for the first time this year.
We are now 2 weeks away from the end of the regular season and just a few days away from March 1st, so it’s officially nut cutting time for every team on the bubble. It’s this time of year that Q1 chances are the most valuable currency in the sport and we are setting ourselves up for some massive matchups over the next 2 weeks between these bubble teams. We’ve narrowed the field just a bit as teams like K-State and Pitt have seen their paths close up, while the likes of Arkansas/Indiana have ascended thanks to big time Q1 dubs. The macro narrative of the mid-majors getting in over the struggling power conference teams is also still alive and well, as teams like Drake/VCU have set themselves up to have quite the argument if they fail to win their conference tourney. The good news about a weak bubble is that a big win from a team on the fringe could catapult them onto the right side of the things so every game carries a ton of weight. We’re diving deep into all of this and more this week, as we have very clear paths for each team as we hit the homestretch.
For those new here, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track,Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 55 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/24. Check out my current bracket projection here.
After yet another win for the Cards this week, at home vs Florida St, do I really think they could collapse and not make the tourney? 99% no, but there’s that 1% that’s still out there, and the remaining schedule is land mine after land mine that would blow giant holes in this ship. They have just the 4 Q1 wins right now, with just 1 over a top-25 team, which for a clean resumé like this is good, but start dropping bad ones and suddenly it doesn’t look so great against teams like Arkansas/Oklahoma/Baylor who all have that many wins or more and are teetering with no bad losses. I want to reiterate, I fully expect Louisville to continue playing really good basketball, and maybe even win out to finish the regular season 18-2 in the ACC, which is unbelievable. The reason they aren’t locked is because this is not about what I predict will happen (I’m a sucky gambler), it’s about what could happen, and the locks do not have a scenario where they could miss the tourney. Louisville still does, but this week it can be extinguished if they just take care of business. They go to Virginia Tech and then host a desperate Pitt team. Win both and we’re done, maybe even with just the Pitt win.
If we know one thing about this Wake program over the last couple of years it’s that they love to lose games down the stretch of the season they can’t afford to lose. Last week it was at home to Florida St, this week @ NC State. That’s now 2 non-Q1 losses which damages what was a super clean resumé, their strongest selling point as they have just 2 Q1 wins. This time last year they were 18-9 and proceeded to lose to sub-100 ranked Notre Dame and Georgia Tech to ultimately knock themselves out of tourney contention. The cycle may in fact continue. Of course, with this season’s weak bubble, they are very much still in the mix, most likely headed to Dayton as of today. It makes it much more dramatic though as they have just 1 meaningful game left prior to the ACC tourney, but it’s @ Duke. I expect a 3-1 finish that would leave them just 2-7 in Q1 which would have them directly on the cut line. They get to host Virginia and Notre Dame this week, absolute must-wins as they can’t afford to take on another Q3 loss. If they had 4 or 5 Q1 wins sure, but at this point they can’t take on any more water. We’ll see if they can stop shooting themselves in the foot.
The Tar Heels did what they had to do this week to stay in the conversation, beating up on NC State and Virginia at home in what amounted to 2 Q3/4 wins. It did nothing for the resumé but it kept them alive, which is still crazy to say given they are just 1-10 in Q1. At the end of the day it’s all going to come down to beating Duke to cap off the season, as they absolutely have to have that to pass these teams with multiple Q1 wins. Frankly, I would not want my season to hinge on beating this year’s Duke team but that’s the reality right now for UNC. They are first going to have to keep handling their business, with their toughest test remaining up next as they head to Florida St. It’s a Q2 game, and we just saw Clemson go to Tallahassee and beat them by nearly 30, so if you think you’re a tourney team it’s time to act like it. They host Miami after which is as easy a W as there is in the Power 5, so all urgency should be toward beating Florida St.
It’s the same old story with SMU, as they had yet another opportunity to beat a good team and got beat by double digits. Clemson came to Dallas and did what every other good team has done, and now we’re looking at a 20 win team that’s 11-5 in the ACC, top-40 in the NET, and has 0 Q1 wins. In my opinion not winning a single Q1 game is an at-large disqualifier, but it seems others are still heavily considering the Mustangs, including the esteemed Joe Lunardi who had them in his “First 4 Out” after Saturday’s games. I have them about the 15th team out, behind nearly every mid-major as well, as most of them have either at least 1 Q1 win or even more Q2 wins (VCU). Again, if I haven’t made it clear enough, I don’t think SMU belongs anywhere near the tourney as it stands, and with just Q2 road games as their best chances remaining I don’t see myself changing that stance. It would be unprecedented for a team with 0 Q1 wins to get in the field and even with a weak bubble there are plenty of teams who can at least say they’ve beaten a good team. The ACC tourney is still remaining of course, and they’ll need to win out prior to that to stay in the hunt.
Last week I laid out how difficult the finish to the season was going to be for the Illini, and after that 40 point blowout loss to Duke this team appears to be on the ropes. That haymaker followed a 21-point drubbing @ Wisconsin, so it’s safe to say Illinois isn’t playing its best basketball right now. HC Brad Underwood has been outspoken about the illness outbreak they’ve endured, and that certainly could have something to do with this 3-game losing streak, but regardless it’s ugly right now. The good news is they finish the season with 2 of 3 at home, and as we laid out last week a 2-3 finish to the season would be enough to keep them comfortably in the field. 2 of those 3 losses are in the bag, so now we’re needing a 2-1 finish that would rack up home wins over Iowa and Purdue. A trip to Ann Arbor is smashed in between, but so long as they’re 19-12 and 10-10 in the Big 10 I won’t be worried about them making the dance, especially with a 7th Q1 win. Anything short of that and it could get dicey, although the weakness on the bubble would likely keep them in, but I would not want that kind of predicament. Just win your home games and it’s all going to be okay.
In true bubble team fashion the Cornhuskers got blown out @ Penn St this week to keep themselves down here in weeds of the bubble. They are still 9-9 in Q1/2 which is far better than the true bubble teams right now, but with a couple of tricky ones still left on the schedule it would have been nice to have that win over a Penn St team that had just 4 league wins prior. The good news for Nebraska is they have a massive opportunity to bounce back and really separate themselves again from those that are in the bubble crosshairs as they host Michigan tonight. A win over the Wolverines would give them their 6th Q1 overall and would put them more in the Illinois territory on the 8-9 seed line. That would be pretty comfortable with just 3 games left, especially since they host Minnesota later in the week which should also be a win. Losing to Michigan wouldn’t put them in danger but it would drop them further into the muck, and other teams are starting to rack up more and more Q1 wins. This is their last shot at a Q1 at home, with a trip to Ohio St next week their only other shot. Sitting at 5-10 in Q1 is not where you want to be, so Monday night is critical for the Huskers to feel comfortable come Selection Sunday.
With their at-large hopes on life support the Hoosiers came up with one of their biggest wins of the season taking down rival Purdue at home to give themselves a realistic chance to get in the dance. They came out in the 2nd half of that game down 12 and played like their lives depended on it, and credit to them for dominating in a game they couldn’t afford to lose. They are now up to 4 Q1 wins, and with 0 bad losses and the 2 Q1(A) wins have a legitimate tourney resumé now. They are in the field as of today if it were up to me, with a trip to Dayton likely in store. The good news for them is the season isn’t over and they have more chances to improve their stock over the next 2 weeks. They next host Penn St who they absolutely have to beat giving them a 4th Q2 win, and that’s followed by a trip to Washington who is last place in the Big 10. In other words, this needs to be a 2-0 week which would put them pretty solidly in by improving to a 9-11 record in Q1/2. After all the missed expectations they still have a chance to at least get in the dance, but it would be pretty on par for a Woodson team to have a letdown after this big win, so the hay certainly isn’t in the barn yet.
It’s red alert time in Columbus right now as the Buckeyes have lost 3 straight games, 2 at home and are now right on the cut line. This week it was an embarrassing blowout at the hands of Northwestern, at home, in what might be the worst loss of the week and they then went to UCLA and lost by 8. They still have those 3 elite wins over Kentucky/Maryland/Purdue but with 4 losses in their last 5 games it’s hard to have confidence they can turn this around. They have 3 left, as they’re staying in LA to play USC in their lone game this week. I’m not sure that 17-14 is going to be good enough, so I think they need to finish 3-0 to find themselves in the field entering the Big 10 tourney. There’s not really much to say right now for this group, you gotta just win. At one point a few weeks ago it was just win your home games, now that’s out the window and every game is critical. A loss @ USC and they might be cooked, so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Buckeyes.
I think this week’s 34 point loss @ BYU was officially rock bottom for this Kansas team, as we had been highlighting their struggles for the last few weeks, but that was the worst performance I’ve seen from a Kansas team maybe in my entire life. They looked uninterested, like they didn’t even care they were getting their asses handed to them. Whatever happened in the days following clearly got their attention though, and while beating Oklahoma St this year is no prize (Q3 win) doing so by 32 while finally dominating the glass like they should (+20 rebounds) gives you some hope a fire was lit by Self. We are going to find out over the next 2 weeks if they really did get the message, as they finish the season with 3 straight games against 3 of the heavyweights in the Big 12. They first have to go to Colorado who just beat Baylor, where they can try and fix their road woes (just 3-7 on the road). Then the gauntlet begins, as they host Texas Tech before going to Houston and then hosting Arizona to finish the season. That’s the stretch that will tell us if they can fulfill their potential or if it’s going to be more of the same: a lifeless team full of unmet expectations.
If you thought last week was big for the Cougars it pales in comparison to what they were able to accomplish this week. They not only annihilated Kansas for their 3rd Q1 win, they also went on the road and beat Arizona to notch their 4th such win and first of the Q1(A) variety. It wasn’t without drama though, as they trailed by 1 with time ticking down and drew a controversial foul call (pathetically bad call) that allowed them to knock down 2 FT’s and win. Of course, they deserve credit for getting to that position on the road against such a good team, and ultimately came away with what could be the win that gets them in as that was the signature W they were missing. While the NCSOS is horrific I think they’ve done plenty to make up for it at this point and are firmly in the field, which I think is widely agreed upon. They’re now 8-2 in their last 10 games as Kevin Young has finally pushed the right buttons in an impressive year 1 as a college HC. Up next they go to Arizona St and then host WVU, so two easier games on paper than they’ve had but not ones you can just take for granted.
The disaster scenario I laid out for Baylor last week is exactly what transpired, as they not only lost at home to Arizona but they followed that up with a 2 point loss @ Colorado. Jayden Nunn did miss the Colorado game, bringing them up to 2 missing guys who have started 20 games. While Nunn should be back next game, Ojianwuna won’t be coming back, and without him they’re just 1-3 and struggling with a lack of depth inside. 3 of their final 4 games are very tough, and it’s tough to imagine a team getting in at just 16-14 this year, even with a bad bubble. They have to go to Cincy/TCU and host Houston. They need to find a way to grab one of those along with the home game vs Oklahoma St, because if they don’t they would fall to just 9-14 in Q1/2. While the volume of wins is still impressive, the losses would have them right around the cut line. It may still be enough to get in, but finishing the season just 4-8 does not bode well. Up next is the trip to Cincy, one with massive bubble implications. They then return home for the easy one vs Oklahoma St, so this week has to be at least a 1-1 split.
West Virginia: 16-11 (7-9) — Q1: (5-10) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 11 (60) Q1(A): (4-6) NET (48)
Thanks to a monster game from rising SO Amani Hansberry, the Mountaineers kept this train on the tracks with a win at home over Cincy that they desperately needed. They still dropped to just 3-7 over their last 10 games with the loss to Texas Tech on Saturday, but as we’ve laid out those 4 Q1(A) wins are keeping them afloat. The game plan remains the same to close out the season, as they have to at least win their home games to stay in good position. They host TCU/UCF with road trips to BYU/Utah, a relatively easy stretch all things considered. If they can go 3-1 it’s a wrap, but even 2-2 with the home wins would likely be enough, but anything short of that will leave them in a very peculiar situation. Let us not forget they have wins over Arizona/Iowa St/Gonzaga/Kansas, a group of wins no bubble team can hang with. They have to just avoid implosion and those wins should keep them in the field, even if it’s one of the last few in. Tuesday night’s game vs TCU therefore is massive for them, as well as TCU, so for those into watching games with massive bubble implications that’s one of the biggest of the week.
Cincy is barely clinging on to its at-large life right now, and they blew a massive chance to improve their situation when they lost @ WVU last week. They were able to bounce back and beat TCU at home, but with so few opportunities remaining that was a tough 10th Q1 loss to take. They’re now just 1-10 in Q1, with 0 Q1(A) victories, a tough sell. The NCSOS is also very bad, so there’s really not a ton going here for the Bearcats, but as I’ve said repeatedly the bubble is very weak, and with a chance to knock off Baylor at home this week they are still alive. The issue they have is Baylor is 30th right now, so they may actually bump them down if they beat them and it’ll wind up a Q2 win, although that could change as we go forward. It’s a steep hill to climb however you slice it, but best case they have wins over BYU/Baylor that both count as Q1 heading into the Big 12 tourney. They’ll also likely add a road loss to Houston on Saturday, but that’s okay, they just need to finish 3-1 to stay alive.
The win of the week on the bubble might have to go to TCU, as they were able to knock off a top-10 Texas Tech team to pick up their signature win of the season. They of course followed that up with a loss @ Cincy, but still the week overall was a success as they nabbed their 2nd Q1(A) win and moved themselves up the bubble a good amount. They are still just 7-12 in Q1/2 though, so there is still work to be done as they have to make up for what was a very rough start to the season. So, we have to keep our eyes forward with the Frogs as they need to keep building, and they have a chance to do so as they head to Morgantown on Tuesday. Win that and they might be in the field, while a loss will put pressure on them to close the regular season 3-0. They host UCF on Saturday, so worse case they go 1-1 and still are firmly on the outside looking in. They still host Baylor and go to Colorado, so a 3-1 finish would leave them 9-13 in Q1/2 which would have them firmly in the conversation. 3-1 is the bare minimum though, as it might actually take a 4-0 finish to the season to get them over the hump. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Frogs.
Creighton bounced back just like they needed to on Sunday after dropping 2 games last week. Georgetown isn’t good but it always feels good to get a double digit conference win, and seeing Kalkbrenner healthy after last weeks tweak of the ankle was icing on the cake. I’m not too worried about this resumé but they of course still need to handle their business down the stretch as bad losses could quickly send them into the danger zone. They have just 1 Q1 game left and it’s on Saturday @ Xavier, so that’s going to be a tough one but one they certainly could win to lock this thing up. They will need to beat DePaul at home, which they surely will, and then a win on the road will make this an open and shut case. Losing to Xavier though would drop them below .500 in Q1, although still likely safe it casts a tiny amount of doubt. They still go to Seton Hall who knocked off UConn last week, so nothing is guaranteed, but they are as close as you can get.
Dan Hurley and Co. are still stumbling and bumbling through this season, as they were on the ropes in the game vs Villanova before storming back from 14 down to win late, and then got smoked by St. John’s. The resumé is still not overly strong, with just a 9-8 record in Q1/2, but that 4-1 Q1(A) record is what is carrying them at this point. They don’t sound overly impressive but still road wins over Texas, Marquette and Creighton plus that neutral win over the Zags are what they are hanging their hat on, and it’s plenty this year to have them safely on that 8/9 seed line. The rest of the schedule presents a great opportunity to get hot, as they have 3 home games and only travel to a down Providence. I fully expect a 4-0 finish to the season, although hosting Marquette certainly isn’t a guaranteed win, that is one that they should win if anyone is going to have any sort of expectations of them going on a run in March. This week is just a home game vs Georgetown and then that trip to Providence, so I’m looking for a 2-0 week out of the Huskies.
A couple of weeks ago I laid out the path for Xavier, which was to win their last 7 games. It sounded like asking a lot, but after 2 more wins this past week they’re 4-0 to start that stretch, with the biggest of them all coming this week as they host Creighton. Overall they are now 9-3 over their last 12 games, so they’re playing good basketball and if I had to purely put teams in based on eye test they would be in my field. The issue is they played a rough non-con and the tough games they did play they lost. They’ve gotten better since though, as the win @ Marquette indicates, so at this point it’s just about volume as 1 Q1 win doesn’t stack up well against the other bubble teams. The Creighton win unfortunately would only be Q2 since it’s at home, and the road trip to Butler right now is just outside of Q1 as well. So, at the end of the day if they win out they would be 8-10 in Q1/2, with only 1 Q1 win, which I’m starting to doubt would be enough to get them in prior to the Big East tourney. If they can do some work there though they might have a shot, but it’s starting to look bleak for Xavier. Either way they still have to win out, so all eyes on that matchup with Creighton on Saturday.
Mississippi St has found a way to navigate this 8 game stretch of Q1 games and keep themselves in a good position, and while they’ve gone just 3-4 it has gotten them to 7 Q1 wins and on the doorstep of locking. The latest win over Texas A&M gave them that 7th Q1 win, and while the loss @ Oklahoma was tough it still leaves them .500 in Q1. With a trip to Bama left to finish off this stretch I imagine they drop to 3-5, but they get a reprieve by hosting LSU after that one. That’s the one they need to win for me to feel confident in locking, as they host Texas and then go to Arkansas to finish things off. Lose at home to LSU and I can’t have any confidence the last 2 games are going to go well, and then 7-11 in the SEC is on the table. That could leave them in trouble, but those 7 Q1 wins would likely still be plenty to get them in, but it would be too close for comfort for sure. I don’t expect worse case scenario to play out here, and I won’t be worried at all if they go to Bama and get smoked. It’s all about winning at home to close things out, and if they can get to 20 wins and 8 in the SEC it’s a wrap.
Ole Miss: 19-8 (8-6) — Q1: (5-8) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 16 (77) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (26)
Well, that’s now back-to-back losses for Ole Miss and they’re looking down the barrel of a gun with the 4 game stretch they have upcoming. They were down by as many as 19 against Vandy on Saturday but actually battled back to take a lead with 5 minutes left. That was short lived though as Vandy took back control and ultimately won by 5. That leaves the Rebels with just 5 Q1 wins and a trip to Auburn up next, with games against Florida/Tennessee still around the corner. The one saving grace for them right now is the Oklahoma home game on Saturday this week, as they absolutely have to have that one. They are looking at being 5-11 in Q1 if they lose to Auburn/Tennessee/Florida down the stretch, so moving to 6-0 in Q2 SHOULD be enough to keep them in the field. Losing to the Sooners and making it 6 straight losses to finish the regular season would absolutely put them down in the bubble muck after being as high as a 5 seed. I just want to see them beat Oklahoma, and if they truly want to feel comfy they could beat the Vols at home next week, but at bare minimum they need to beat the Sooners on Saturday.
With their backs against the wall the Sooners were able to claw out a massive Q1 win over Mississippi St on Saturday to keep themselves afloat. As predicted they lost to Florida earlier in the week to extend their losing streak to 5 games, so that game on Saturday meant everything for their chances to punch a ticket to the dance. The job is nowhere close to done though as they still have 4 more Q1 games to close out the season so that was just step 1. They have UK/Mizzou at home and trips to Ole Miss/Texas on the docket still, and I would guess they need to go at least 2-2 to feel comfy entering the SEC tourney. That would get them to 7-10 in Q1 which should be good enough with this year’s bubble, but anything short of that is going to put them squarely in the Last 4 in/First 4 out discussions yet again. So, for any Sooners fans out there you’re looking for 2 more wins, and 1 at bare minimum as finishing 5-12 in Q1 doesn’t feel like enough, especially when that would include a backdrop of 9 losses out of 10 to close out the season. That is an NIT team, no way around it. Win your home games and there’s no doubt. It starts Wednesday night as UK comes to Norman.
That was a brutal L to take for the Longhorns on Saturday as they got waxed in South Carolina giving the Gamecocks their 1st SEC win. Tre Johnson was fantastic again with 29 points but the rest of the team was horrific, especially defensively. Now the pressure is ramped up as they are just 7-11 in Q1/2 and have just 2 Q1 chances left, both on the road. They do host Georgia/Oklahoma and those are absolute must-wins, but they might also have to find a way to pick up a road win. If they only win their home games to close it out they’ll be 4-10 in Q1 and 5-3 in Q2, which will make it very close and possibly leave them on the outside looking in. It would all depend on what the rest of the bubble has done at that point, but that’s not a place you want to be in. This week they head to Arkansas, in a matchup that has massive bubble implications, before hosting Georgia. At bare minimum they need to split the week, as an 0-2 week would knock them well out of the field. Their backs are officially against the wall, so it’s time this supremely talented team locks in or they’ll be NIT bound.
Vandy is following the script right now, as they lost their 3rd straight game as expected but bounced back with a massive win vs Ole Miss to add their 3rd Q1 win. There’s a lot of noise right now about Pat Kelsey at Louisville and Dusty May at Michigan, and it’s well deserved, but you can definitely argue what Mark Byington has done here is far more impressive, as Vandy doesn’t have the history of success those other programs do. Overall they had to just win their home games the rest of the way and they’re off to a great start, but the work is not done yet. The 3 Q1 wins are still low in total, and the NCSOS is as bad as it gets on the bubble, so they had much ground to make up entering the SEC. They have another tough week upcoming with a trip to A&M up next and then they host a very good Mizzou team. Again, they just have to win at home, and that Mizzou win would add a 4th Q1 win and put them in a great spot. Failing to secure that one will put them in a precarious position, so that game on Saturday night is critical for the Commodores as it’s the last Q1 chance at home they’ll have this year.
Every game is critical when you’re fighting for your life on the bubble, but that win over Mizzou felt like the most important game of the weekend for any bubble team. The Hogs had been playing better and better but it felt like they were falling just short, so for that locker room to pick up a giant Q1 win at home felt like some validation for those guys and above all it nudged them likely back into the field, although it’s razor thin. They have to keep it rolling this week as they have the chance to clean up the worst part of their resumé, that 1-2 Q2 record. They first host Texas and then head to South Carolina, 2 testy games but ones that could flip that to a 3-2 record in Q2 and overall push them to 7-11 in Q1/2. It’s a weird resumé right now, because the win volume is the lowest of any team close to consideration, but the 4 Q1(A) wins are by far the most impressive set of wins any team near the cut line can bring to the table. That’s why these 2 Q2 games are so important, because it takes away that argument against you and helps to solidify the fact that it’s not just a couple games where you looked good. You have to be able to stack up against the competition and a 2-0 week is going to help them do just that.
The slide continues, as expected, as they lost @ Auburn to now make it losses in 9 of the last 11 for the Dawgs. While they fought hard and kept it closer than most expected, it amounts to an 11th Q1 loss as the situation for Georgia is looking extremely bleak. They need to at least go 3-1 the rest of the way to stay alive, but 4-0 might actually be what it takes to get them in before the SEC tourney. They host Florida this week, a game they haven’t proven to be good enough to win but you can’t replicate desperation, so if they can play with their hair on fire and catch Florida napping they could pull it off. They’ll hope they can, because they head to Texas after that, and an 0-2 week would knock them out of at-large consideration. No matter how you slice it they have to find a way to win one of these Q1 games this week at least, as they’re the last Q1 chances of the season and 2-13 is not going to be good enough. There’s not much left to say, they’re on life support and have to try and beat a top-5 team to stay alive. Good luck.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
New Mexico: 21-5 (14-2) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-1) SOS: 79 (58) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (42)
The Lobos got waxed @ Boise St in their lone game since we last met, and while that dropped them to 3-2 in Q1 they still are in perfectly fine shape as it stands. It was a bit unsettling to see them get beat so easily, although they made it look a little better by trimming it from 19 to a final of an 8 point spread. While they didn’t capitalize on the chance to make this an open and shut case, a 14-2 Mountain West team isn’t going to ever be too nervous. They have another tough road test this week as they head to a tough San Diego St team who is more desperate for a win, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re just 3-3 in Q1 next week. A win though and we can lock them up, as that would push them to 12-3 in Q1/2. After that game the schedule is very soft, with only a trip to Nevada offering any sort of challenge before the Mountain West tourney. A 3-1 finish would keep them comfortably in still, and frankly losing twice probably wouldn’t knock them out either, although it would push them pretty close to Dayton so finishing strong is important to stay around that 9 seed line.
This was a big week for Utah St to get back on track after losing to New Mexico yet again, so to see them get a big win over San Diego St was a sigh of relief. They are in a good position, with the road win @ St. Mary’s being the highlight and a 10-4 Q1/2 record being impressive enough this year even with a low volume of Q1 wins. They do have to close the season with a bit of a tough stretch as they have to play both Boise St and Colorado St on the road, both Q1 chances, so they could look much worse if they go 0-2 this week. Finding a way to pick one of those road wins up is the path to locking in my opinion, as I don’t see a team this year that’s 4-2 in Q1 missing out on the dance. I mean we’re talking about VCU/UC Irvine with just 1 Q1 win having shots at at-large spots so they should be fine. Falling to 3-3 at least makes it nerve wracking, although I would still anticipate them getting in, however close it may end up being. Big week for the Aggies’ comfortability on Selection Sunday.
Teetering:
San Diego St: 17-7 (11-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 60 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (49)
The road loss to Utah St was a missed opportunity but ultimately shouldn’t be any cause for concern. As I said last week this resumé is being carried by the non-con SOS which happens to feature massive W’s over Houston/Creighton. Those wins are better than any wins New Mexico or Utah St have, which helps them make up for the bad metrics and loss to UNLV. It also helps them compete with these bubble teams from the power conferences as they can come to the table and say we beat Houston, top that. Not many can, so if they can just finish the season strong, namely beating New Mexico this week, then I think they’ll be in comfortably as the committee should look favorably on that top-10 NCSOS and those elite wins over strong tourney teams. A 4-0 finish to the season would leave them 9-6 in Q1/2 and make them a lock to be in the tourney, anything less likely leaves them somewhat in doubt, although at 8-7 they likely would still be in. Either way, just beat New Mexico and make it simple for everyone.
Well the Boise late season run we discussed last week is off and running as they picked up massive wins over New Mexico (Q2) and @ Nevada (Q1) last week. That pushed them from just 4 Q1/2 wins to 6 to get them much closer to the cut line than they were a week ago. This train could keep on humming, as reeling off 6 in a row was the path we suggested and they’re 2 for 2 so far. The next challenge is hosting Utah St, a Q2 game but one they must have, as those 2 Q3 losses are a black stain that they need every win possible to make up for. After that are 2 easy games against Fresno and Air Force before they finish off the season hosting Colorado St. If they get to 22-8 by winning 6 straight games they would sit at 8-6 in Q1/2 games and would have a very interesting argument to make. Could that St. Mary’s win be enough? Would the Q3 losses keep them below the power conference teams who have 10+ losses but mostly/all in Q1? I would think yes to the latter, especially with how the committee treated the Mountain West last year, but regardless they would be right in the mix and that’s all you can ask for considering where they were in late January at just 13-7.
Well the Zags continue to disappoint on the court as they lost another Q1 chance, this time at home to St. Mary’s. The Gaels didn’t allow the Zags to lead from start to finish, maintaining control throughout. Somehow, is spite of everything we’ve seen, Gonzaga has convinced the computers they are a unanimous top-15 team. Never mind their best win is over a now 30th ranked Baylor team…the Zags are just the latest shining example of the limitations of the computer rankings, in my humble opinion. Because they beat Pepperdine and Portland by 45 and St. Mary’s only beat them by 25 we’re going to value the Zags higher, even though in 2 matchups the Gaels won both. Make it make sense. I understand there are complexities to the metrics beyond that oversimplification, but at some point we need to start weighing how you perform against top competition a little higher. I also understand Gonzaga’s losses are mostly close and at the wire, but is there not a measurable skillset to winning close games? I digress, but I needed to get that out somewhere, and the metrics do seem to matter to seeding and they’re keeping Gonzaga afloat right now so it is relevant. To finish the season the Zags have 2 road Q1 games, so they can still make this a much easier sell, and prove the metrics right, by beating to sub-50 ranked teams (Santa Clara/San Fran) on the road to get to 4 Q1 wins. Anything less than that and they’ll be still firmly on the bubble entering the WCC tourney as right now they’re just 6-8 in Q1/2 games.
Outside Looking In:
San Fran: 21-7 (12-4) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (12-0) SOS: 102 (182) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (61)
We’ve finally reached the week where the Dons’ season will be decided, as they get a Q2 road game and then a massive Q1 game vs Gonzaga to finish the regular season. They have to win both of those games, and frankly I’m still not sold that will be enough at just 5-7 in Q1/2, but it gives them a fighting chance entering the WCC tourney. They would be able to say they beat 2 top-20 NET teams (SMC/Zags) and then would have a Q1(A) win per the NET with that Gonzaga win. It would at least put them ahead of the other mid-majors who are fighting for spots, as they certainly can’t tout that level of win, and they don’t have the Q3 losses that many of them are carrying around either. The volume isn’t going to be there to compete with the power conference teams, but if teams like Indiana/UNC/Xavier/Cincy continue to miss out on their chances they may be able to squeak in there. It’s a very narrow path, that needs some help from others, but I do think it’s still possible. They have to go 2-0 this week though, no questions asked.
I wanted to lock Memphis in this week but the aggregate at Bracket Matrix has them lower than I do, so we’re going to hold on to them even though they have a fantastic resumé right now. I think folks are discounting what it means for a team from a mid-major conference to schedule a top-5 non-con schedule and then go out and perform the way Memphis did. I understand it’s the volume over efficiency argument, but to go out and get wins over teams from the Big 10 (Michigan St), SEC (Ole Miss/Mizzou), Big East (UConn) and ACC (Clemson) is insanely impressive. I know they’ve lost a couple of stinkers but I think the committee is going to overlook those given the level of wins they racked up in the non-conference. I mean people have them below St. Mary’s right now, and while I love the Gaels they don’t have anywhere near that level of wins. They’re the opposite of Gonzaga in the fact that they play with their food and don’t annihilate bad teams so the metrics don’t love them, but wins are wins in March and they have proven they can beat good teams. That’s my argument for Memphis being a 5 or 6 seed instead the 8 they’re projected right now. We’ll see what happens but so long as they don’t pick up another bad loss or 2 I think they’re sitting pretty.
Drake bounced back this week after taking that bad loss last week, picking up 2 wins including a Q2 win @ Northern Iowa in OT. That win was massive as it pushed them to 5-1 in Q1/2, and while K-State falling off and dropping to a Q2 win hurts they still are in the best position in this group of mid-majors thanks to 2 wins over power conference teams. They have 2 easy games to close out the regular season so they should finish up 25-3 and have a very impressive resumé all things considered. Obviously they would like to have those Q3 losses back, and more opportunities to pick up quality wins, but given the schedule and difficulty of winning consistently they have nothing to hang their heads about. I for one just hope they win the MVC tourney so we don’t have to worry about it, but if they do lose it’s going to be very interesting to see what the committee does with a resumé that includes just 1 Q1 win and a NCSOS near 250. Historically that doesn’t bode well, but with this year’s weak bubble I do think it’s possible. Have to finish strong though.
VCU had as good a week as they could’ve asked for as they throttled UMass and then knocked off George Mason to re-take the lead in the A-10. They’ve now ripped off 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 13, so they’re clearly playing very good basketball, this resumé is just so weak. I don’t see how the committee would put in a team with 0 Q1 wins, especially considering overall their best win is over 62nd ranked Colorado St. I have them where I have them because other prognosticators disagree, including the “esteemed” Joe Lunardi who has them a part of his First 4 Out PRIOR to the George Mason win. I have them on the outside looking in, and while the committee could make a hard pivot and give teams more credit for Q2 wins than they’ve historically done, that would also bode well for other bubble teams like Cincy/Xavier who also happen to have a Q1 win on to their name. Just like Drake I hope VCU makes it easy and just wins the A-10 tourney, but I genuinely don’t think a team with 0 top-50 wins is going to get in the dance on resumé alone. I reserve the right to be wrong however.
UC San Diego has separated themselves from UC Irvine, mostly due to the Anteaters still losing conference games. They now have the more legit chance to get an at-large if they’re able to win out as they have the Utah St win that is Q1(A) and fewer bad losses as well. The key is going to be that Q2 win over CS Northridge this week to give them a 2nd Q2 win, and while I still don’t think it would be enough it’ll at least be enough to be firmly in the conversation at 4-2 in Q1/2. The volume is super low, but they can at least come to the table with an elite win as per the quadrant system, something these other mid-majors can’t say. The SOS numbers are not good, but hey they’re an out of nowhere team from the Big West it’s tough to expect them to be scheduling like Dayton or Memphis. I would argue they are right there with VCU given that big win, and maybe you value the Q2 wins a lot more than Q3 for VCU in comparison but I think a tourney team should be winning those games regardless. Give me the team that has proven they can beat another tourney team, and that’s the Tritons. Hopefully they just win the conference tourney though so it’s nothing we have to worry about.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. It’s pretty evident by the data as well as just watching the games that we have 4 teams that have separated themselves at this point. Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn very clearly standout, and the domination at the top of the sport is something we haven’t seen in some time. You have to go all the way back to the 2015 season, in my opinion, to see this level of top heavy play in college basketball. That year we had undefeated Kentucky (“Elite”) that lost in the Final 4 to Wisconsin, who was very similar to Auburn as the #1 offense in the country and flirting around top-15 defensively. You also had Duke who won it all that year and then Arizona/Villanova (“Great”) as dominant teams with an overall efficiency north of 33. Arizona lost to Wisconsin in the Elite 8 and then Nova bounced out early in round 2 in the big upset that year. That was basically the only thing that didn’t go according to plan, with 3 of the 5 dominant teams getting to the Final 4. I am starting to expect a similar type of tourney, with now those 4 elite teams rating higher than everyone last year but UConn. Every year people say there’s more and more parity, the tourney is less and less predictable, and maybe beyond those top 4 it will be this year, but it’s just a fact we haven’t seen this level of efficiency and domination from a group of teams like we have this year since 2015. Obviously there are a couple of weeks left to play until the dance, but at this point you’d be foolish to pick a national champion that isn’t 1 of those 4 teams. Also, in reference to what I talked about last week, we lost a couple of teams from the trustworthy categories already so it’s already leveling out at 15 teams.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Duke, Houston and Florida remain Elite and look like the teams to beat in college basketball, along with Auburn who is the best offense in the country and right on the doorstep now defensively. As I said from the get go, we have 4 outstanding teams in the sport this year.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn is back to where they probably should be given how dominant they’ve been, and while they haven’t always shown up defensively they’ve done enough to clearly be the #1 overall seed and are a very trustworthy pick in March right now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Auburn drops to solid once again, as they’ve oscillated up and down the ranks from Elite all the way down to Solid. Defensively they are just not consistent enough to join that group, but they have a huge chance @ Alabama this weekend to improve on that and get a big win. The rest of this group are similar names, with Arizona and Maryland still of note as they are hot and improving.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
Alabama, Mizzou and Purdue are all barely clinging to their inclusion here, with Bama sliding consistently thanks to their inability to get stops. Purdue has gone from near solid ranking to almost falling to Wannabe, but Mizzou has clawed their way here for the first time, so they are going in the opposite direction. Gonzaga/Wisconsin/Tennessee are the stalwarts here, with Tennessee being the team I’d be most confident in.
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
We’re down to just the Wildcats, who have fallen from grace after picking up massive wins earlier in the season. Teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Purdue and Gonzaga have all found themselves here at some point but have made improvements defensively lately, but they’re certainly capable of finishing here if they slip up down the stretch.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
We have added to the party here with some more bad offenses drifting down to the Grinder archetype. St. John’s of course is still here, but we’ve added A&M and Kansas, who have both been very near to here for a while but have finally crossed over into dangerous territory. This often happens as the conference season moves forward, as weaknesses are attacked. I would expect at least A&M to remain here, with Kansas having a chance to bounce back with all the talent they have.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
We have teams here who are going in opposite directions, with Louisville still charging forward, nearing the Solid archetype at this point. Then there’s Marquette, who has fallen all the way from “Great” to “Vanilla”, and while they still are in the top-30 they’re barely holding on to relevancy.
It’s time we officially start calling this the worst bubble in the history of mankind, and while I’m all for the bubble races I have to level with you, the reader, this is the least compelling bubble I can remember. However, allow me to try and make it interesting: We have team after team missing out on opportunities, with big time brands like UNC/Indiana having such bad resumés they may lose out to the likes of Drake/UC San Diego. Which begs the question, will the committee finally throw the mid-majors a bone? It feels like year after year we see a 25+ win mid-major team flounder in the conference tourney and get sent to the NIT because they just didn’t pick up enough Q1 wins to keep up with the power conference schedules. However, this year we have teams like those big brands I just mentioned who have 1 or 2 such wins battling for the last spots, will the UC Irvines or George Masons of the world finally have a shot? I for one would rather watch teams such as those get a shot at an Arkansas or Vandy, than watch UNC/Indiana/SMU/Cincy lose yet another Q1 game in Dayton. At some point, after 10 Q1 losses they’ve proven who they are, or better yet who they aren’t. I’m not convinced they will do what most fans would like them to, but I’m holding out hope, and have added even more of these mid-majors to the watch as I’m about over watching teams like USC/UCF/Arizona St/Pitt blow chance after chance and try and convince myself they still have a shot. Give me the VCU and UC Irvine. Make this the year of the mid-major. I digress.
For those new here, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track,Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 61 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/17. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Clemson was absolutely dominant this week, avoiding what was a natural letdown after the massive Duke win they obliterated both UNC and Florida St this week to notch 2 more Q2 wins. They are now 10-4 in Q1/2 games, very impressive, but what is keeping them from being a better seed and locked up here is most of those wins are of the Q2 variety. They are obviously going to be puffing their chest out with that win over Duke on the resumé, but they certainly can’t afford to go on a major losing streak as we finish out the regular season. The way they are playing there’s no reason to think that’s even a possibility but I know better than to think there’s zero chance. They only play once this week, heading to an extremely desperate SMU team, so they could fall to just 3-3 in Q1 with zero chances left until the ACC tourney. It’s definitely not a must-win, but a loss to SMU does put a little heat on them to at least finish the ACC season 4-0 after that, as all 4 are Q3 or worse and I would not want to add more bad losses if I were them.
Pat Kelsey is doing a tremendous job right now as he took the Cards on the road and picked up 2 tricky road wins to keep this thing humming. While NC State and Notre Dame aren’t world beaters those were two big time wins to keep themselves from falling down into any sort of danger zone. They are looking really good right now with just 5 games to play, and while they can’t be locked with just 4 Q1 wins the schedule is so weak thanks to this pathetic ACC that it’s hard to imagine they miss the dance. They have 4 of their last 5 at home and just 1 true test with Pitt coming in, although they are in a rough spot right now, they’ll still be desperate for that W. This week it’s just 1 home game against Florida St, one you have to win but if you’re not awake at the wheel you can certainly drop, just ask Wake Forest. They’re better than Wake though and I fully expect this train to keep on rolling in what is right up there with Mizzou for turnaround of the season. Pat Kelsey for COY, Louisville is back.
Wake got caught with their pants down this week as they dropped an inexplicable one at home to Florida St, in a game they lead by 16 with 8 minutes to play. It may have been the proverbial kick in the nuts they needed, as they traveled to SMU and played as good a game as they had all season, securing a massive Q1 win. Similar to Clemson last week, although on a much smaller scale, they ended up winning the week as that 2nd Q1 win was critical, and while they took a small hit with their first loss outside of Q1 I think the good ultimately outweighed the bad. Unfortunately though, if they just could’ve held on to that late 2nd half lead they would be in a much better position, but with just 5 games to go they would likely be heading to Dayton as it stands. They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, as 4-1 is very realistic, with a trip to Duke being the 1 likely loss there. If they finish 23-8 and 15-5 in the ACC I think they’ll be in , especially with how weak this year’s bubble is. Either way, a trip to NC State up next is a gotta have it type game, as they’ve won just 3 ACC games this year. Can’t get caught off guard again.
Thanks to the bubble being absolute dog doo doo this year we’re still talking about UNC at just 1-10 in Q1 as potential at-large contenders. Their 10th Q1 loss came this week in blowout fashion as they got dismantled by Clemson on the road, and while that’s not a bad loss for anyone it’s pretty clear the Tar Heels are just mid, as they absolutely cannot beat a good team. They did bounce back from that embarrassing loss to squeak by Syracuse in what amounted to a Q3 win, doing absolutely nothing for them. In spite of all of that pretty much everywhere you look they are going to be in the “First 4 Out”/”Next 4 out” conversations, pretty wild. What that means is if they can go on a run by winning their next 5 games they’ll setup a season finale with Duke in Chapel Hill that could be them playing for their tourney lives. They’d be 20-11 at that point, with a 7-10 Q1/2 record, and adding that Duke win would likely be just what they needed to slip their way into this year’s tourney. It’s amazing how bad the bubble situation is, but this is a real possibility right now, and while I doubt they can pull it off, someone has to take these final few at-large spots.
After yet another Q1 loss Pitt is pretty far out of this thing, but as we’ve said the bubble this year is incredibly weak so hope is somehow still alive. They bounced back from the loss @ SMU to beat Miami at home, which stopped a 4 game losing streak as well. They have what should be another easy home win with Syracuse on deck, but the game next weekend @ Notre Dame is the tricky must-win that could knock them out for good. If they can win that and move to 4-1 in Q2 though they’d still be hanging on, with a trip to Louisville their last meaningful chance on the 1st of March. They are sitting somewhere around the 12th-15th team out, right there with SMU, so winning out is essentially their only path, with some wins in the ACC tourney also going to be necessary. We’re still a long way from that though, as this week’s trip to South Bend is going to tell us a lot about Pitt’s chances at running the table and keeping themselves in this.
With another blowout loss against a good team, this time Wake Forest at home (Q2) SMU is falling further and further out of contention. They still have 0 Q1 wins, but now they also have multiple losses outside of Q1, not to mention the brutal SOS numbers. Their saving grace will have to be this coming weekend when Clemson comes to Dallas, as that is pretty solidly a Q1 opportunity and a chance for them to truly put themselves in contention. They first have to go to Notre Dame, a team that is inconsistent but fully capable of beating them. A win in South Bend would push them to 6-2 in Q2, and following that up with a Q1 win would get them to 7-6 in Q1/2, which in this year’s bubble would likely be good enough to get them in. This is a major nut up or shut up week for SMU, as they simply aren’t going to get in without some more quality wins, and they’re running out of chances.
Finding a way to pull off a road win over Indiana was exactly what the Bruins needed as they are now completely back after a bit of a midseason dip in January. They’re 8-1 over their last 9, with the lone lost this past week @ Illinois in a tough battle, so I have much more confidence in this team than I did a month ago. They are on the doorstep of locking as I don’t see a team with 7 Q1 losses missing out on the dance but if they lose out it would be way too hairy for me to feel comfy, especially with bid stealers still to come. Give me one more win and we can lock this one up, and they have the perfect spot to do so with Minnesota coming to Pauley Pavillion, with another winnable home game after with Ohio St coming in. I fully expect a 2-0 week and locking them up, although even avoiding the bad loss to Minnesota would be enough for me, that’s how close they are to locking. So, most likely our last time speaking on the Bruins, credit to Cronin for getting his guys attention and turning this ship around as most have forgotten they lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 the end of December into January. Credit where credit is due.
Maryland now joins UCLA on the doorstep of locking after a massive road win over Nebraska gave them their 6th Q1 win, and they cleaned the week up with a home drubbing of Iowa. They don’t have the level of top wins that the teams who are locked do just yet, and that’s why they find themselves on the 6-7 seed line even with the record that they have. They have just the 2 elite wins over Wisconsin/Illinois and that non-con SOS is horrendous so that is all keeping them down the seed list for the moment. They have just 2 Q1 chances remaining, with a home game vs Sparty next week being their best chance to make this an open and shut case. This week they only have 1 game at home vs USC, one they should win rather easily to continue their hot streak as they’re now 7-1 over their last 8 games. One could argue they’re the hottest team in the country, right up there with UCLA at least, so the continuation of that is going to keep them right on schedule.
Alright we can all take a breath as the Ducks finally stopped the bleeding and ended their 5 game losing streak with 2 home wins this week to get themselves back on track. Granted it was Northwestern/Rutgers, but when you’ve lost 6 out of 7 you’re just happy with wins regardless of opponent. We were starting to wonder if they could be the complete collapse this year, but they did what they had to do to likely avoid that, but the hay isn’t fully in the barn just yet as they have a few more tests the rest of the way. Ultimately, their 4 Q1(A) wins, including 3 top-15 wins, are going to carry them through most likely, but their seeding has taken a major hit over the past few weeks. It’s not going to be easier this week as they hit the road again going to Iowa and Wisconsin. The latter is almost certainly a loss as the Badgers are playing incredible basketball, so if they can find a way to beat the Hawkeyes that will go a long way toward locking this one up. I might not get fully there with the Iowa win but they’ll be very close, as 7 Q1 wins is unlikely to miss the dance.
We could be headed towards a danger zone with Illinois, and while the 7th Q1 win vs UCLA was massive they blew a lead to Michigan St at home and dropped one they really needed on Saturday. The metrics love them and they have those 7 wins, but 1 is barely holding on with Ohio St at 30th, and they finish with such a difficult stretch that a 1-4 finish is very realistic. They have 1 should be win with Iowa coming to Champaign, but for example this week they head to Wisconsin and then they play Duke in NYC in a random non-con game. That feels like an 0-2 week that would drop them to 17-11 and 7-9 in Q1. They would still be in at that point, but man it would be way closer to the cut line than people ever thought, as many had them as a flyer pick to win the Big 10 (not 5 star of course, we much more astutely predicted IU). At the end of the day this is a young team that has been thrown together after losing almost their entire roster, so you knew it would be tough. The way they make this comfortable, short of beating Duke which would obviously lock them up, is to beat Purdue at home to finish the season. That’s the path to not having to worry for Illini fans, beat Iowa and Purdue at home and the other 3 losses (Wisconsin/Duke/Michigan) won’t kill you. It’s a brutal schedule to end it, but even a 2-3 finish will be good enough.
Nebraska’s was on fire until Maryland came to town and dumped cold water on them, but impressively they bounced back and went to Northwestern and picked up a huge W. If you didn’t dig any deeper you’d think they played very well in that one, but they were down by as much as 20 until they locked in and clawed all the way back to win by 4. I’m assuming Hoiberg’s message was a frantic, desperate plea, as they could not afford to drop that one in Chicago. Coming back provided them their 6th Q1 win which separated them pretty solidly from the tru cut line, where a team like Ohio St went spiraling toward. Quietly Nebraska has themselves positioned in a place I didn’t think possible just a couple of weeks ago as they were losing 6 straight games, so credit to that team and Hoiberg for locking in and improving their play. They can realistically finish 3-2 the rest of the way, with home games vs Minnesota/Iowa as very winnable and then they also go to Penn St and host Michigan so winning one of those 2 would probably lock this in. Obviously going like 1-4 would make this thing tough to predict, but I feel like even just those 2 easy home games could be enough now that they are up to 6 Q1 wins.
I’ve been saying the Buckeyes needed to just win their home games and they’d be safe, and they did so to start the week by beating Washington. Unfortunately, they fell to Michigan at home Sunday and now are in a more hairy situation as we hit the homestretch. They have 3 of their last 5 on the road, with a trip to LA being 2 of those games with UCLA/USC. If they finish just 17-14 they will be just 4-11 in Q1 but also 5-3 in Q2, that will put them squarely in the crosshairs of the bubble, with their fate really hinging on how the rest of the bubble performs. If they can find a way to steal one road game, with a trip to Indiana also in there, then I would feel much more confident in them. The home games are Northwestern this week, and Nebraska later on, so those should both be wins, it’s about stealing a road game now that they lost to Michigan. I still think they are in as of now, but I’m not liking their chances if they finish the regular season just 4-11 in Q1. The next time we meet they should have at least beaten Northwestern to keep this thing on the tracks, with a loss to UCLA most likely on Sunday which will leave them in about the same spot next week.
It was a wild week for the Hoosier but ultimately it was good enough to keep them alive, for now, as they picked up a massive win @ Michigan St only to come home and lose another close one to UCLA. It’s wild that a team that is just 2-11 in Q1 games is still alive, but that’s the 2025 bubble for you, and with still many chances at nabbing big wins left they are still right in the thick of this thing. That’s not considering they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games though, so it’s hard to have confidence in them, but when they’re at their best they’re good enough to beat Sparty in East Lansing, so you can’t fully give up on them just yet. They only play once this week with Purdue coming to Bloomington in the rematch for this rivalry, after IU took Purdue to the brink in Mackey Arena earlier this month. Despite all of the losses, and their coach announcing his retirement at the end of the season, they have a realistic chance to finish the season 4-1 and go dancing. Do I have fait that will happen? Not really, but they host Purdue/Penn St/Ohio St and then a road game @ Washington. Those are all winnable and they need them all, as I don’t think 18-13 would be enough, although they’d still be alive likely. They’ve shown us they aren’t just going to roll over and die, now we’ll see how much fight they really have as they try and save face down the stretch.
I can only imagine what’s going through Bill Self’s mind as he tries to get this ultra talented team to stop losing games they shouldn’t. After winning a ho-hum game at Allen Fieldhouse vs Colorado they dropped yet another Big 12 game @ Utah, their 6th conference loss of the season after being the #1 team preseason. After last year’s 8 Big 12 losses, the most under Self, he loaded up on talent via the portal and was seemingly out for vengeance. It hasn’t gone to plan, and now the Jayhawks are playing as unispired as I’ve ever seen under Self, which has to be the most aggravating thing. He’s gone from winning with grinders like Perry Ellis and Frank Mason to trying to get some semblance of pride/effort out of guys like AJ Storr and Hunter Dickinson. And I know Hunter puts up numbers, but when you’re getting out-rebounded by 10 by Utah and your star 7-footer has just 6 rebounds while the other team has 16 offensive rebounds, something is very wrong. They are running out of time to right the ship, and while they have plenty of wins to be safely in the tourney, they’re not a top tier contender, and that’s a sad state for such a great program. And to top it all off they head to Provo next to face a hot BYU team. Good luck.
As I said last week the loss to Houston was inevitable, but the game with WVU was going to be the real important one, and they found a way to get it done. It wasn’t without trial though, as the Mountaineers took them to OT, but ultimately Baylor picked up the W and stayed on course to end up around the 8-9 seed line. Of course there’s still time to improve their positioning, or worsen it, and this week they’ll have the chances to do both, with Arizona coming to Waco and then a trip to Colorado. This could be a wild swing of a week, as a 2-0 sweep would put them in fantastic position, with likely no need to sweat the rest of the way, but if they drop both games, which is entirely possible, then they would likely start sliding toward the last 4 byes territory. The 5 Q1 wins are going to likely keep them safe for a while, but with road trips to Cincy/TCU still on deck and having to host Houston I would not want to be losing to Colorado. Huge variety in outcome possible, but they can also stay right where they are by splitting, so who knows where they’ll be this time next week.
West Virginia: 15-10 (6-8) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 12 (59) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (44)
The Mountaineers continue to play a dangerous game, as we’ve noted over the past few weeks, as they continue to lose games while hanging on to 4 Q1(A) wins. Thankfully this year the bubble isn’t very strong, but they’ve now gone just 2-6 over their last 8 games, with losses at home to BYU and then @ Baylor this week continuing their slide. Again, they have 4 elite wins (3 over top-10 NET teams) something no bubble teams this year can compete with, so it feels like they can’t slide all the way out of this thing, but at what point do the losses become insurmountable? They aren’t there yet, and the schedule is going to soften up just a bit, with a home game with Cincy up next and then after a trip to Texas Tech they host TCU. They need to go 2-1 in that stretch, with a loss @ Tech not going to hurt them obviously. It will start to get very interesting if they can’t handle their business at home though, as at some point those elite wins just won’t be enough if they continue to lose. Let’s not forget Cincy is playing pretty good ball right now, so this thing could get a whole lot more interesting by the next time we meet.
What an absolutely gigantic week for BYU and their hopes for an at-large, as they went on the road and beat West Virginia to pick up a 2nd Q1 win and followed that up with a win over a white hot K-State team to go from just 5-8 in Q1/2 games to 7-8. That put them in the field for me and just about everyone else, with the consensus likely having them in Dayton or one of the last 4 byes best case, as they’re now 6-2 over their last 8 and starting to cement themselves as a tourney team. They have a wounded animal coming to Provo in the form of Kansas, but as we know that is often the most dangerous animal, so while it presents a huge opportunity they need to lock in. If they drop that one they then head to Arizona, so all the good they’ve done could get quickly undone if they drop both of these and fall to just 2-8 in Q1. Unlike West Virginia and Baylor they have zero elite wins, so getting a 3rd Q1 win in their last home Q1 opportunity feels ultra important. I’m not going to say it’s a must-win, as this bubble is horrendous, but it would go a long way to feeling confident BYU is going to be dancing.
Cincy did what they had to do to stay on track this week, but their resumé took a hit, along with the rest of the Big 12, with the fall of UCF out to 75th in the NET. They are dangerously close to losing their lone Q1 win which would drop them to an ugly 0-9. That’s obviously not going to get it done, and I said last week their path was to beat Baylor at home later this year and steal a road game. They failed to win @ Iowa St, hard to ask for, but this week presents them with their best chance to get one, @ WVU. I don’t think they can get in without it, and while the weakness of the bubble may keep them alive, a win over the Mountaineers would make their case so much stronger. In theory UCF could crawl back into the top-75 and a potential win over Baylor could give them 2 Q1 wins, but I wouldn’t want to have to count on a UCF team that has lost 6 in a row. They need to take matters into their own hands and it starts with a win in Morgantown and then a home W over TCU. Do that and they might be in the field this time next week, a remarkable turnaround after just a couple of weeks ago they appeared to be down for the count.
TCU had a rough start to the year, and even at the end of January sat at just 10-10 as Jamie Dixon tried to mesh a new group of transfers and freshmen. They are led by senior guard Noah Reynolds and have completely turned a corner over the last 5 games, going 4-1 with the lone loss @ Iowa St. We always have some late chargers that come out of nowhere, and this year the Big 12 is providing them, and given the state of the bubble it’s easier than ever to go on a late season run and get in. While they haven’t made up for all the losses they took on to start the season, they have massive chances this week with Texas Tech coming to Fort Worth, as well as a trip to Cincy which both give them shots at Q1 wins. Right now they are hanging their hat on 2 road wins, Baylor/Arizona St, but a home win over Texas Tech would give them that marquee Q1(A) win that could catapult them right into the thick of the bubble conversations. They’re still a ways away, but with 4 of their last 6 being Q1 they are going to have the chances to work themselves into legitimate consideration.
The winning streak marched on to begin the week, as they extended it to 6 in a row, including 4 Q1 wins as they took down Arizona at home. That streak was finally broken on Saturday night though as they got handled by BYU in Provo. That loss drops them to just 6-10 in Q1/2, and while they have 3 elite wins they are still going to need to add to this resumé to get themselves into the dance. Lucky for them the schedule lightens up going forward, as they go to Utah and then host Arizona St. Those of course aren’t easy games, both qualifying as Q2, but they are games you have to have when you’re trying to make up for what was a very poor start to the season. Those 2 wins would pull them to .500 in Q2 which would be huge as that 2-4 record is disgusting and cannot fly for an at-large team. They have done so well to claw themselves back into the conversation after not even being close to on the radar when they were just 7-11. It would be a shame for it to go down in flames with a loss this week, so here’s hoping they lock in and get 2 huge wins this week.
Creighton’s 9 game winning streak came to a screeching halt as they not only lost at home to UConn but dropped a 2nd in a row @ St. John’s as well. Both of those games were hard fought and down to the wire, but ultimately it keeps them on the bubble and in somewhat of a pressure spot as they can’t afford to drop bad ones the rest of the way in order to stay on track. They have an easy finish to the season, and frankly probably feel fortunate to just have gotten out of New York with Kalkbrenner healthy. He went down hard in the 2nd half of that game and it looked bad, but he came back after just tweaking his ankle. They now get to return home and have some rest and then play Georgetown on Sunday. That’s just what the doctor ordered for a team that just lost back-to-back games and has a banged up star player. I think they rest up and get right in that matchup with the Hoyas, and with just 1 Q1 game left the resumé kind of is what it is right now, and it’s pretty solid so they should feel good but not lockable.
UConn has probably the most unique resumé on the watch, and that was furthered this week as they picked up a massive win @ Creighton and then lost @ Seton Hall. I thought 1-1 was the most likely scenario for the week, but man did I not think it would come in the way that it did. Ultimately it brought the Huskies to 4-0 in Q1(A) games, and dropped them to 3-2 in Q3, a bizarre resumé to say the least. It continues to be all about their uncanny ability to play to the level of their opponent seemingly every night. They certainly aren’t in any danger of missing the tourney as it stands, with those 4 elite wins carrying them, but they continue to limit how good of a seed they can get, with an 8-9 seed looking most likely even with all of those great wins. They play Villanova at home and then @ St. John’s this week, and while I’m going to say 1-1 is the likely outcome I refuse to predict which game they’ll win, as both will likely be close given their history. Regardless of what happens, the bubble is so bad they will have to take on a lot of water before they start to feel like they’re in trouble.
This week was just what the doctor ordered for Xavier, winning @ Providence and then at home vs DePaul. It didn’t do a ton for them but it did add a 6th Q2 win and more importantly they didn’t drop another one outside of Q1 and made their record a little prettier. They are still clinging to that win @ Marquette as their marquee win but as we’ve laid out in the past they are going to need to find one more at least as we go forward. This week presents 2 more can’t lose games, as they host Butler and then head to Seton Hall. Gotta have them both, as the Creighton home game is on deck after that, and dropping one outside of Q1/2 would be a death blow to an already subpar resumé. The macro view of this team is that they’re 7-3 in their last 10 games, clearly turning a corner and playing tourney quality ball, this year at least, and as long as they can handle their business this week they’ll be setup to win their way in with a win over Creighton, although not guaranteed.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Ole Miss: 19-7 (8-5) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 17 (81) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (25)
The Rebels took an unfortunate L this week at home to their rival Mississippi St, dropping them to 5-7 in Q1. That game followed a win @ S. Carolina, but the loss at home by 10 is pretty alarming, as they got out-rebounded by 12 and trailed the entire 2nd half. It was a disappointing result and one that kept them from getting locked, but it certainly doesn’t put them in any danger. The schedule doesn’t let up though, as is the reality for all of these SEC teams, as they head to Vandy this week in their lone game before we meet again. Drop that one and then they head to Auburn, with Tennessee and Florida both still to come as well. There’s a world where this Ole Miss team goes just 1-4 the rest of the way, and while I think that’ll still be enough it certainly isn’t a situation I’m comfortable locking just yet, as an 0-5 finish and a first round exit in the SEC tourney could make this quite the situation. So many ways it can go, but I would be getting a bit antsy as they head to Nashville.
Mizzou continues to be the biggest surprise in the SEC as they’ve moved up to 15th in the NET after picking up a 4th Q1(A) win and an overall 5th Q1 win with their win @ Georgia. That win followed a home blowout of Oklahoma in what was a huge bounce back week after an 0-2 week last week. They are now in fantastic position, and really just a win or 2 away from locking this thing up. The reason for the timid approach to locking is they finish with 5 of their final 6 being Q1, so there’s still a world where they’re just 5-11 in Q1, and while that should still be good enough with this year’s crop of bubble teams it certainly isn’t sure enough to lock just yet. I’d like to see them get one more, and with Bama coming to Columbia this week they have the perfect opportunity to make this one an open and shut case. The trip to Arkansas after that is dangerous though, so if Bama bounces back from their Auburn loss and beats them, they could easily go 0-2 and be looking a bit shaky the next time we meet.
This was an important week for Mississippi St, and while they failed to beat Florida at home they were able to go on the road and beat rival Ole Miss to complete the season sweep and add a 6th Q1 win. That helps to put them in a comfortable position as they look to finish up this brutal stretch of 8 straight Q1 games. They’ve gone 2-3 so far, with A&M coming to Starkville next followed by a trip to Oklahoma later in the week, with another road game @ Bama rounding it out. With those 2 road games on deck the home tilt with the Aggies feels very important, as stringing another 3 losses in a row would put them in a precarious position. They of course could win @ Oklahoma, who by no means have been playing great ball, but still taking care of business at home is the most ideal scenario. We’re holding off just to make sure they don’t completely collapse, as they’re just 4-6 in their last 10 games, not exactly an inspiring run. Overall, I expect to see the Bulldogs in March, just not going to guarantee it just yet. We’ll see how they fare this week.
I’m not sure what’s going on with this Oklahoma program under Porter Moser but the late season collapse is becoming a problem. They started the season 13-0, with wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan who are all solid tourney teams. They’ve gone just 3-9 since SEC play started, with the most recent loss to LSU at HOME the most embarrassing of them all. They now are clinging to an at-large bid, thanks to those non-con victories, but with 6 straight Q1 games to come it is increasingly looking like the wheels are going to fall off of this thing. If you can’t beat LSU at home I’m not sure what you can do at this point, and they next have to go to Florida before they host Mississippi St. I’m not seeing a path to the tourney that doesn’t include the win over Mississippi St, as dropping that one would bring them to 6 straight losses (assuming an L @ Florida) and have leave them hosting UK and going to Mizzou on life support. So, I’m calling that one a must-win, as the loss to Florida feels inevitable, so if you see Oklahoma lose to State on Saturday you can bet the Sooners will be best case looking at Dayton, and potentially out of the field entirely. What a fall from grace.
We said last week they had to find a way to pull off 1 of their tough home games this week and they did just that, knocking off Kentucky on Saturday night after getting waxed by Bama earlier in the week. They had to do it without Kaluma, but freshman Tre Johnson was worth the price of admission as he dropped 32, and with the help of Tramon Mark’s 26 willed Texas to the W. That win gave them their 4th Q1 win and put them pretty confidently in the field as it stands right now, although they’re in that mix of Last 4 byes – Last 4 In so they can’t just mail it in there is still work to be done. They have just 1 game this week, @ South Carolina, one that you absolutely have to have but one that bubble teams like Texas can struggle to secure. Big picture I’m looking for a 3-2 finish for them to stay on the right side of things, as that would move them to 9-12 in Q1/2 which should be good enough this year to get in. That would allow for losses @ Arkansas/Miss St and then home wins over Georgia/Oklahoma in addition to the win over the Gamecocks. It can happen in another order of course but that’s the cleanest way for them to get it done, we’ll see if they can make it easy.
The key for the Commodores is to not panic after this week, as they played hard and while they lost 2 games it was to Auburn and Tennessee, nothing to hang your head about. The path to the tourney is still clear and ahead of them, as they still have 3 home games, 2 of which will be Q1. They get one of those this coming Saturday with Ole Miss coming to Nashville, and while they will likely be entering that game on a 3 game losing streak, it’s possible they go to Kentucky and upset the Wildcats. They almost did that to the Vols this past week so it’s not out of the question by any means, but expecting them to go into Rupp and win is not realistic. The goal for them should be to just win their home games the rest of the way, as that would get them to 4 Q1 wins and 10 Q1/2 wins overall. That should be enough to get them in, especially with no bad losses and likely at least a 2nd Q1(A) win. The path is there and very realistic, and it would be the 2nd most shocking result in the SEC this year as Mark Byington has done an unbelievable job here.
The Hogs are still fighting for their tournament lives, and while they’ve been playing much better basketball over the last couple of weeks they ultimately are still just 4-10 in Q1/2 games. That of course is bouyed a bit by the fact 3 of those wins are Q1(A), something the committee values highly, it’s still not good enough. This past week didn’t help that record, as they beat LSU (Q3) and then lost @ Texas A&M. The path remains the same as it has been, winning their home games and also beating S. Carolina at their place, which would put them 19-12 and double their Q1/2 wins to 8. That would be good enough by my estimation to have them in the field entering the SEC tourney. It starts this week, after a trip to Auburn that won’t be enjoyable, they get to host Mizzou. The Tigers are playing very good basketball but Arkansas simply has to have it. If they fall to just 4-12 in Q1/2 they would fall behind a lot of teams I would think. I am willing to call that game a must-win, and while it’s possible I suppose they claw their way in still with a loss to Mizzou I don’t like their odds. So, the playbook is simple, beat Mizzou on Saturday.
Well the Dawgs are officially in a free fall as they’ve gone just 2-8 over their last 10 games and find themselves on the brink. I would argue they should be the first team out, others appear to have them in still, but either way they are the very definition of Teetering. This past week included a tough loss @ A&M, but the more frustrating one was at home to Mizzou as they were up 3 at the half and lost by 13. I understand that they have wins over St. John’s and Kentucky, but at this point I just don’t think they are good enough to be a tourney team. You could argue others would rack up this many losses if they had to continuously play top-20 teams, and that’s a good point, but most of their losses to top teams are by double figures. They are just too young and inexperienced, and I think that is going to keep them from going on a run. However, that’s just my opinion, and they have 1 more chance at home to prove me wrong. It won’t come this week though, as their lone game this week is @ Auburn. With that said I can’t imagine they are in a better position come next week.
Outside Looking In: N/A
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
New Mexico: 21-4 (14-1) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-1) SOS: 90 (63) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (37)
New Mexico is now in a great spot as they added another massive win over Utah St on Sunday to complete the season sweep and move themselves to 11-2 in Q1/2 games. That’s uber impressive, and does more than enough to make up for the 2 very bad losses. The negative is they don’t have the elite wins that the power conference teams have, but the non-con win over UCLA is going to be what they point to as evidence they belong in conversations with those teams. That is what is keeping them down in the 8-9 seed range, but ultimately with all of those Q2 wins you can’t ignore it, as so many teams below them have .500 records in Q2, so it’s pretty obvious they belong below the Lobos even if the Q1 volume is lower. I think they’re in a safe position right now, but the Mountain West got hammered on seeding last year so I will not be locking anyone up for an at-large given those teams last year all had 6+ Q1 wins and still barely got in. This week they have another opportunity to add a notch in their belt with a trip to Boise St representing a 5th Q1 game. That would push them as close to locking as you can get in this conference for me.
After the sweep by New Mexico the Aggies are now pretty solidly behind the Lobos and are sliding down more toward San Diego St. They have the win @ St. Mary’s that is their saving grace, but still with their best power 5 win being Iowa you could argue the resumé is worse than the Aztecs due to a lack of quality wins. That makes the home game vs those very Aztecs this weekend all the more compelling as they could sweep SDSU with a win there and give themselves yet another Q2 win. They only have 2 more Q1 chances with trips to Boise St and Colorado St left, and those are going to be critical as entering the conference tourney at just 3-3 in Q1 is not going to have them feeling all that great. At some point the rest of the Mountain West is going to start scheduling like San Diego St, but until then it’s going to be life on the bubble every year, even for the teams who are dominating league play. I think they’re good enough, especially this year with how down the bubble is, but they need this win vs San Diego St this weekend to further their cause.
San Diego St: 16-6 (10-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 63 (7) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (50)
San Diego St got back on track this week, going 2-0 and adding another Q1/2 win over Boise St at home. This resumé is being carried by the non-con SOS which also features wins over Houston/Creighton, which are aging like fine wine. Those wins are better than any wins New Mexico or Utah St have, which helps them make up for the bad metrics and loss to UNLV. Overall they are now 7-5 in Q1/2 and still have 2 big time matchups with Utah St/UNM, giving them 2 more chances to add to that total. So long as they don’t pick up any additional bad losses I’m confident the Aztecs are going to be in the field, especially with how they scheduled in the non-con. This year’s bubble is just too bad to leave a team out with wins over Houston/Creighton, as many other mid-major schools will be in contention and certainly don’t have the wins they do. This week they get an easy dub with Fresno St at home and then head to Utah St in a massive clash. A win there is obviously huge, but a loss won’t sink their ship by any means. It’s all about limiting any damage the rest of the way and then beating New Mexico at home.
Any other year the Broncos would simply be nowhere close to the bubble, but as I’ve repeatedly stated the bubble this year is horrendous and if you are looking at some projections Boise St is right in this thing. I honestly am not sure how, with 2 quality wins really over St. Mary’s (lowkey the Gaels are carrying the Mountain West right now) and Clemson that is enough to qualify you for the bubble in 2025. 4-7 in Q1/2 is usually laughable, but here we are with 4 more Q1/2 games on the schedule they could realistically push to 8-7 or 7-8 in those and be right in the mix. This week will be critical as they host New Mexico and then head to Nevada. A 2-0 week would absolutely push them up into somewhat realistic consideration, especially since they have those 2 wins over tournament teams, so at 6-7 they’d have an argument, especially if the power conference teams that are in the mix continue to blow every opportunity presented to them. I have my doubts on this one, but the path is there thanks to the schedule remaining and simply just not having other options.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Saint Mary’s: 22-4 (13-1) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 91 (84) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (20)
The Gaels continued their war path on the WCC as the still have a stranglehold on the regular season championship. They are simply just a good basketball team and should be heavily favored in all but 1 of their games the rest of the way, the rematch @ Gonzaga. That is going to be must watch TV, but it ultimately won’t knock them out of the field if they lose it, so we’re really just hoping to avoid taking on damage from bad losses the rest of the way. That being said it feels pretty solid, and while they could of course drop some that we don’t expect, that’s not really who they are, as they defend well and traditionally always tear through the bottom half of this conference. I would expect that to continue, and even if they lose @ Gonzaga they will remain well above the danger zone, so it’s all about avoiding the land mines as we close out the season.
Gonzaga is just not what we’re used to seeing out of Mark Few and co. but they have 2 good wins over Baylor/San Diego St, who also happen to be down a peg this year from what they usually are. Those wins are good enough to keep them in the field, mostly thanks to the computers also loving them and having them in the top-10. In no world is this team top-10, but the computers say it so it must be true right? They’re 47th in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), so while they may look great to the metrics the results are not so great, and to me they’re barely in the field right now and should be feeling desperate for big time wins. This week they finally get their chance to improve their situation as they host St. Mary’s as they try and notch a 3rd Q1 win. They first head to Wazzu which would also give them a Q2 win, so they could wind up 7-7 in Q1/2 after this week and feel a whole lot better this time next week if they handle business. They also finish with 2 Q1 road games next week, so a lot can be done to put the Zags in a better spot over the next 2 weeks, so as we’ve said for a couple of weeks the season starts now for Gonzaga.
Outside Looking In:
San Fran: 20-7 (11-4) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (12-0) SOS: 93 (171) Q1(A): (0-2) NET (60)
Well this week went as scheduled for the Dons, losing at Gonzaga but bouncing back and beating San Diego pretty convincingly. I say as scheduled because I have laid out the path for them for a while, and it is still open to them, with a trip to Oregon St and then the massive one at home vs Gonzaga. They have just 1 game before that critical back-to-back to close the season, at home vs Pacific, so the opportunity almost certainly will be there for them still. If they are able to pick up those 2 wins they will move to 23-7 with a 5-7 record in Q1/2. It’s not a guarantee that they get in with that record, but with 2 Q1 wins they certainly would have a good argument, especially with how weak this year’s bubble is. They would be hoping the teams from the SEC like Georgia/Vandy/Arkansas all flounder, and bid stealers would be a disaster. For this week they just have to handle business against Pacific so they can focus their attention to next week, one of the biggest in recent program history.
Memphis gave themselves a ton of wiggle room thanks to playing the 5th strongest non-con schedule and taking full advantage of their opportunities. Unfortunately they fell asleep at the wheel this week and dropped a 3rd Q3 game @ Wichita St week. That was the thing they had to avoid, as their schedule is just land mine after land mine and they finally took some damage. They were flirting with a 5 seed, and now they’re spiraling toward a 6 or even 7, although I think that strong NCSOS is going to carry them further than people think. The wins over Michigan St/Clemson/Mizzou/Ole Miss/UConn are wildly impressive so I think they hold at a 6 for now but they really need to lock in. They are not really going to be challenged the rest of the way, as there isn’t a top-100 team on the schedule until a potential conference tourney rematch with North Texas. Penny has to get the message across that these games matter, and I can see that being difficult as it would be easy to feel like they proved themselves already.
That was a tough L to take for Drake as they lost to Bradley at home and now have 3 losses outside of Q1. Due to the bubble being horrific I’ve changed my tune a bit and I think Drake has a solid shot at an at-large, but they absolutely cannot take anymore losses. Drake fans also have to be massive Vandy/K-State fans, as those are the shining stars on the resumé. They need the Commodores to continue to pick up wins in the SEC to keep that win there, and they need to just keep on winning games in the MVC. If they win out it’ll be very interesting where they sit, but with how bad these teams are fighting for spots I just can’t see the justification for leaving a 4-loss Drake team out. Hopefully they just win the damn thing and we don’t have to mess with it, but either way any loss the rest of the way would be devastating.
VCU seems to be getting attention as a potential at-large team, and while they do have an overall 6-4 Q1/2 record after winning @ George Washington this week, I feel like having just 1 Q1 win is not enough. There are others that disagree though, and if they run the table the rest of the way they undoubtedly would be getting discussed. A source I like to reference for an objective look at this is HoopsHD, so shoutout him, and he has them as the 17th team out right now. That is a calculation that ended up top-10 last year. So, all the VCU fans out there, it’s not looking great, and it’s really due to the horrific non-con schedule and lack of Q1 wins. They have 0 Q1 opportunities left on the schedule, so I really don’t see how they could get in with just 1 Q1 win, but again, they’ll certainly get discussed. Last year it took 2 Q1 wins to get in, and with the way the committee treated teams with bad SOS numbers last year I just don’t see it. However, I am allowed to be wrong, and after that road win over Dayton it’s clear VCU is the team to beat, although George Mason is coming on strong. Just keep winning, that’s all they can do.
George Mason: 20-5 (12-1) — Q1: (1-2) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (8-1) SOS: 129 (177) Q1(A): (0-2) NET (63)
Just like the rest of these mid-major resumé’s it’s slim pickens as you look at this one, with their best win being @ Dayton which is barely qualifying as Q1. To their credit they did play both Duke and Marquette, but got blown out in both games so not a great thing to point to. They have 3 top-100 wins, again not great, but as I’ve said with the other mid-majors it would be nice to see them get their shot at one of these middling power conference teams in Dayton. The big matchup in the A10 is upcoming this Saturday when they travel to VCU. That would give them a 2nd Q1 win and a major edge over VCU resumé wise. A loss though would keep them pretty solidly out of it in my estimation, with zero chances left after that to pick up a quality win. It’s like the same story with each of these, but the lack of Q1 chances is going to be their undoing.
With their win over UC Irvine, to enact their revenge, they now have a better argument in my opinion than the Anteaters. They have a massive win @ Utah St that UC Irvine can’t compete with, and while they have fewer Q2 wins they have a chance to add one later when they travel to Cal St Northridge in late February. I still think either way one of these teams is going to have to win the conference tourney to get in, but they at least still deserve to be in the conversation, especially with that Q1(A) win. Again, as I’ll continue to say with all of these low major teams, they don’t do themselves any favors with the scheduling, as they surely could try and schedule some top teams from the mid-major conferences or something at least. To the Tritons credit they did at least have JMU and Toledo on the schedule, they just happened to have down seasons, but still it’s always going to be about major wins and if you want to have a chance at an at-large it’s going to be tough to compete with SEC/Big 10 teams who are playing 15 or more Q1 games to your 2 or 3. Even McNeese was able to land 5 Q1/2 games, which at least gave them more of a fighting chance, even though they failed to cash in. Either way, the Tritons need to win out and hope the rest of the bubble flounders.
The Anteaters deserve to be in the conversation given how horrible the power conference bubble teams have been this year. It’s not because they have an amazing resumé by any means but they’ve been a consistently solid team this year and are 4-2 in Q1/2 games, so that’s something. I probably don’t think they should get in at this point, but with more carnage from these other bubble teams and 6 more regular season wins from Irvine and they’d at least have an argument. I don’t think the reps on the committee from the power conferences would let this happen, but I know fans are going to be clamoring to at least see the loser of the Big West title game, assuming it’s Irvine/San Diego get an opportunity. I don’t disagree personally but in sticking with my effort to predict what the committee will do I’m not confident. They do only have the win @ UC San Diego so it’s a tough sell with only 2 top-100 wins.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. A quick aside before we dive in…we have to once again address Auburn, who continues to look weaker here than any other place you’d look, so many might have questions. Right now they are the clear 4th most trustworthy team, so not bad at all, but most college hoops fans would have them as their favorite to win it all. So why are they 4th and why am I comfortable with that? They haven’t defended consistently, and the main discovery of this entire exercise is being balanced is the key to March success. Interestingly, they have played the 3 teams ahead of them already this year, going just 1-2. They beat Houston (by 5) and lost to Duke and Florida. That’s a pretty good marker right there, and you can see in all 3 of those games they gave up well over 1 point per possession. They are obviously an elite offensive team, but it is clear what the weakness is and it is more of a weakness than those other 3 teams have. It will be interesting to see how they defend Alabama on Saturday night, as they are the 2nd best offensive team. A good performance defensively could see Auburn climb up into a better spot, but another performance like the one against Florida and people may stop questioning why they are just 4th here. Also important to note that in other year’s there might only be 1 other team in the conversation with Auburn, but this year offers up more dominant teams at the top than we’ve seen in several years, so this should not discredit how good Auburn is as much as it highlights how great Duke/Florida/Houston have been.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Houston and Duke remain the stalwarts in the Elite group, as they continue to play extremely efficient on both ends of the floor. However, we also have a new addition to this group in Florida, fresh off of their upset win @ Auburn they join these 2 at the top of the sport.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn has fallen again and we now have zero teams in the great category, so down to 3 teams in Elite/Great but all qualifying as Elite now as Florida jumps up, for now.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Auburn drops to solid once again, as they’ve oscillated up and down the ranks from Elite all the way down to Solid. Defensively they are just not consistent enough to join that group, but they have a huge chance @ Alabama this weekend to improve on that and get a big win. The rest of this group are similar names, with Arizona and Maryland still of note as they are hot and improving.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
We’re down to just the Wildcats, who have fallen from grace after picking up massive wins earlier in the season. Teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Purdue and Gonzaga have all found themselves here at some point but have made improvements defensively lately, but they’re certainly capable of finishing here if they slip up down the stretch.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
The Johnnies remain our lone grinder, but UCLA is creeping.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
In a week that featured both #1 and #2 going down, my eyes were fixated on bubble matchup after bubble matchup, as teams like Arkansas and Cincy made big pushes to get back in the conversation and teams like Iowa and Stanford missed out on chances to stay relevant. There were moves made all the way up and down the country, but the most surprising might be Kansas St who has gone from complete irrelevance to back in the picture with 5 straight wins including massive ones over Kansas and Iowa St. Last year it was Ohio St, this year it looks to be the Wildcats who are surging late and trying to make a push for an at-large after stinking it up to start the season. We’ve moved to 10 locks now as teams have begun to rack up enough big time wins to be safe, but our eyes remain on the roller coaster rides that are the bubble teams. Just when you think someone is turning a corner they hit a skid, and just when you count someone out they catch fire. That’s the fun of the bubble, and that’s why we meet every Monday, to make sense out of all the chaos that is February/March in college basketball.
So, without further ado, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track,Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 60 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/10. Check out my current bracket projection here.
The Cards handled their business this week, and while they didn’t add anything meaningful to their resumé it was an important week to avoid taking on any damage. Obviously, they are still in a fantastic position, with a 9-6 record in Q1/2 including 4 of the Q1 variety. As I said last week the homestretch for Louisville is all about staying focused and winning games they’re supposed to, as it’s littered with potential bad losses. This upcoming week is no exception, with 2 Q2 road games upcoming they’ll need to stay shard to avoid dropping one or even both, which would make things a little more interesting. I think they still have some comfort room over the true bubble teams, but in the interest of getting locked up and making Selection Sunday a little less stressful, they can just take care of business on the road this week.
It was quite the up and down week for the Tigers, as they couldn’t avoid the lookahead spot, dropping a Q3 game to Georgia Tech at home, only to bounce back and pick up their biggest win of the season when they beat Duke Saturday night. That win over Duke will be the one we remember, and while having that stain on the resumé hurts a little, it was completely made up for and then some. They are now on the doorstep of locking, although with just 3 Q1 wins it’s hard to feel like this resumé is impenetrable, especially with how much damage you can undertake in this conference. They have a hungry UNC team coming to town tonight, and fresh off of a massive win and court storm, I’m looking for that to be a dogfight that could add a 3rd Q2 loss. They then head to FSU, which is one you really should win but they have talent and could offer up yet another Q2 loss. With that said, we’re going to make them do a bit more to earn that lock status, but they should feel really good with that Duke win in their hip pocket.
It was under the radar but the Demon Decons had one of the biggest weeks out of anyone on the bubble. They had 2 very tricky road games, traveling from North Carolina to California and picked up wins over Stanford and Cal. That was absolutely massive, and while it received little to no attention, it was a kind of week that gets you praise in a place such as this. It ultimately amounted to just a Q2/3 win, but that’s a road trip that many bubble teams wouldn’t come out of unscathed. They improved to 6-6 in Q1/2 and by my estimation would be headed to Dayton if the season ended today. Lucky for them the season doesn’t end today, as there are many who still don’t have them in the field so they certainly can’t feel comfortable. They have a giant opportunity this weekend as they go to SMU with a chance to pick up their 2nd Q1 win. They’ll have to pull off what Clemson couldn’t and avoid the lookahead, as they first host FSU, but if they can go 2-0 this week they would be in a much better position, potentially avoiding Dayton altogether when we meet next week. SMU/Wake, Saturday night, a game with massive bubble implications.
The Tar Heels took the first step in keeping themselves alive, albeit by the skin of their teeth as Pitt had their chances late but ultimately UNC picked up the Q2 win. They are still just 6-9 in Q1/2 with just the 1 win over UCLA to hang their hat on. Based on that I wouldn’t think anyone worth their salt would have them in the field right now, but they’re just 1 big win away from that being a much more convincing argument. They have an opportunity to do just that with a trip to Clemson tonight who undoubtedly spent all weekend celebrating their takedown of Duke. The Tar Heels need this one, and I would dare say they have to have this one if they want to get an at-large bid. They have just 1 remaining Q1 game after this one tonight with Duke coming to Chapel Hill in the final game, so after this one they’ll need to rip off 6 wins in a row anyway as it’s a very soft schedule. At 21-10 they would be in a decent spot, so that’s what we’re looking for, as a loss to drop them to 1-10 in Q1 might just be too much to make up for.
I called Pitt’s home meeting with Virginia a “get right game” last week, and boy did they fail to do that, dropping an inexplicable one to the Hoos to pick up a Q3 loss. They extended their bad stretch with a narrow loss @ UNC later in the week and have now dropped 7 of 9 after starting the year 12-2. They are pretty firmly on the outside right now, with just a 4-8 Q1/2 record they have a very narrow path left to an at-large bid. They have 2 remaining Q1 chances, with their trip to SMU on deck being the first, with a trip to Louisville later in the year being the only other one. I am going to call this trip to Dallas a must-win for the Panthers, as I don’t like their chances in Louisville nearly as much. They are simply not going to get in the dance on their own merit with just 1 Q1 win, so this trip west is their lifeline right now, as they desperately need to pick up a quality win and end this losing streak.
This SMU resumé is going to be very interesting as we move forward, as it is more akin to one of the mid-major teams we are tracking than what we would typically see in the ACC. They have played just 4 Q1 games and in each of those they got blown out, and while they continue to dominate in games outside of Q1, it’s hard to ignore how bad they’ve been against good teams. The metrics like them more than a Wake Forest for example, mostly because they tend to get hot and blow teams out, but with 0 elite wins to hang their hat on it’s tough to include them in March. There’s a good chance down the stretch they play 0 more Q1 games, with Clemson at home being the closest after their win over Duke. They won @ VA Tech this week but another Q3 win does nothing for them, but home games with Pitt/Wake/Clemson are the games I’m circling. Either way I think they’re in a similar position as UNC where they need to essentially win out to have a good feeling about their chances. 2 Q2 home games are on deck this week, which they absolutely have to have.
Sparty dropped their 2nd Big Ten game as they lost to UCLA earlier in the week, but did bounce back in their return home as they beat Oregon. Of course it wasn’t without drama, as they were down 14 at half to the Ducks, but played with their hair on fire in the 2nd half to comeback and win by 12. They are right on the doorstep of locking, but with just 5 Q1 wins, 1 of which is barely hanging on (Rutgers), I’m still hesitant to lock just yet. They finish the season with 7 straight Q1 games after the home game vs IU on Tuesday night this week. While I don’t expect them to lose 7 straight games, if they did and Rutgers falls just 4 spots in the NET then we could be looking at a team that’s 4-11 in Q1. All I want to see from them is to pick up 1 more Q1 win down the stretch to make this thing comfy and ease my fears. For reference, the 2 locked Big 10 teams have 7 Q1 wins each, so asking for a little more from the Spartans at this juncture is completely fair, especially with the mediocre SOS numbers and such a tough stretch upcoming. They’ll get their first shot @ Illinois this weekend, but of course will also need to handle the Hoosiers at home first.
The Bruins are white hot right now, winners of 7 straight after that tough stretch in January that saw them lose 5 of 6. They picked up a massive Q1 win over Michigan St this week to bring them up to 6, and the win over Penn St added a Q2 win to lift them to 10-6 in Q1/2, a strong resumé. It has helped that the furthest they’ve had to travel over this stretch is to Washington, but regardless winning 7 in a row in a conference this deep is impressive no matter how you slice it. Mick Cronin was the recipient of some criticism during that stretch, but credit to him for pushing the right buttons to get his team to respond and up their level of play. They now have to hit the road again though, heading back to the midwest to play both Illinois and Indiana. Both of those environments are tough, and it’s certainly possible this could be an 0-2 week, although IU is really struggling right now. If they can find a way to nab one of these this week that would give them 7 Q1 wins which might be enough for me to lock them up.
It might be officially panic time in Eugene as the Ducks have now lost 5 in a row and 6 out of 7 overall as they’ve gone from looking like one of the best teams in the conference to now being just 5-8 in Big 10 play. They still have the 7 Q1 wins thanks to a stellar non-con schedule that included wins over Alabama and A&M, two top 15 teams. However, after losses to both Michigan and Michigan St they’ve fallen to 9-8 in Q1/2 games, and with how badly they’ve played it’s hard to have confidence they’ll turn it around. They do get a reprieve with the schedule though, as they return home to play Northwestern and Rutgers, 2 teams they should beat. However, they did just lose to Nebraska at home so it’s hard to expect them to win any game at this point. They need to get this train back on the tracks, and this is as good of a 2 game stretch as you can ask for in this conference to get right. No more messing around or this might get hairy.
It was a pretty ho-hum week for the Terps, although they did almost pull off a 6th Q1 win in Columbus, but a late Bruce Thornton 3 sealed that one up. They bounced back though to beat Rutgers at home and are now 8-6 overall in Q1/2, putting themselves still on the same track. They have probably the easiest remaining schedule of anyone in the conference, with 4 out of 7 at home and just 4 Q1 games. Still of course isn’t easy, but considering others have 7 Q1 games left they should feel fortunate they get to play Iowa/USC/Northwestern at home as we close things out. They feel like they’re approaching lock status given that, but at just 5 Q1 wins we aren’t going to go there just yet. Also, they have a trip to Nebraska up next, so they could drop to below .500 with a loss there, and will return home to play a struggling Iowa team that will just be a Q2 game. They’ll likely still be here next week, as a 1-1 split feels like an inevitability, but a win @ Nebraska could bring them much closer to locking.
Michigan had a very strong week, beating Oregon at home and then going on the road and beating a desperate IU team. They improved to 10-5 in Q1/2 games, and while they lack the Q1 wins as compared to their Big 10 counterparts, they are going to get plenty of chances down the stretch with 7 out of their last 8 being Q1, with just 3 road games. That sets up what could be a massive run, as if they can just win their home games they could pick up 4 more Q1 games and move to 9 Q1 wins which would push them much higher on the seed list. It will start this week as they host Purdue, a chance to pick up another Q1(A) win but also a chance to pass the Boilers in the Big 10 standings. If Dusty May can come to Ann Arbor and win the Big 10 in year 1 that would be an incredible achievement, especially considering the fact he had to rebuild the entire roster. What a massive opportunity on Tuesday night for the Wolverines, and it’s followed by a trip to rival Ohio St. Huge week for their season overall not just the resumé.
At this point it’s hard to really know who Illinois is as a team, as you can see them look like one of the best team’s in the conference and the next night out they’ll lay an egg. They have an insane amount of talent, it’s just not nearly consistent enough right now. That was on full display this week as they lost to Rutgers, giving the Scarlet Knights some life, but then went to Minnesota and dismantled the Gophers. You just don’t know which team is going to show up night in and night out, but so far they’ve done enough good to feel pretty comfortable resumé wise. They have 2 gigantic Q1 opportunities this week at home, with both Michigan St and UCLA coming to Champaign. They could make this an open and shut case if they can pick up both of those of those wins, as getting to 8 Q1 wins seems like more than enough to get them in. It’s important to note though they do finish with 6 out of 7 as Q1 games, so they need to buckle down and find some consistency or they may take more lumps down the stretch.
They did exactly what I said they needed to do this past week, picking up a major win over Maryland at home and then dropping one @ Nebraska. Of course you’d like that road win but our message to them since the road Penn St win was just to handle their business at home and they’d get in. So far so good, and they’ll return home for 2 more games this week, with Washington up first, followed by rival Michigan. The latter is of course a much bigger game, and gives them the chance to add a 6th Q1 victory. It’s also their final Q1 chance at home, so they really, really need to pick this one up and I would dare say their at-large chances hinge on this one. They obviously could lose and then win some road games, but asking them to do that is asking a lot, so just handle your business at home Buckeyes, make it easy on yourselves. The best part about tracking bubble teams though, it rarely goes to plan.
What a roller coaster ride this has been for the Cornhuskers over the last month or so, as now after enduring a 6 game losing streak they’ve flipped the script, ripping off 4 wins in a row to position themselves back in the field pretty solidly. The win @ Washington to start the week lifted them above .500 in Q2 and then they added yet another Q1 win when they took down Ohio St at home to cap off yet another solid week. They’ve added 4 Q1/2 wins in a row now, taking them from out of the field to as high as a 8 or 9 seed. What a run, and it can continue this week as Maryland is coming to Lincoln on Thursday, presenting them with a chance to move to 6-6 in Q1. That is followed by a trip to Northwestern, yet another Q1 chance that could, in a perfect world, get them up to 7-6 in Q1 and make this feel far more safe than you ever would have thought just a couple of weeks ago. What a ride, we’ll see if they can keep it going or if we’re in for yet another turn.
Well it was a bit of a disappointing week for Muss and co. as they lost both road chances against Northwestern and Purdue. They were both Q1 losses, and they were without their best player in Desmond Claude so I don’t think it’s a reflection of there ability, as it’s hard enough to win on the road in the Big 10 much less without your best player. However you slice it though those were two major opportunities that they failed to land, and now they head home for 2 must-win games with Penn St and Minnesota coming to LA. This is a reprieve, as this is as about as friendly a week as you can get in this conference, so they have to handle their business to stay in this thing. Big picture with 8 regular season games left they have 4 at home, and they likely have to go at minimum 5-3 to stay in the hunt, although going 6-2 might be more realistic if they want to be in the field. That means winning at least 1 or 2 of their road games, which is why I thought that Northwestern game was so important. All of that is moot though if you don’t go 2-0 this week, so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Trojans, here’s hoping Claude is back in short order.
Things have completely unraveled on IU’s season now, with their at-large hopes on life support as HC Mike Woodson declared his retirement at the end of the season, likely in lieu of being fired on the spot after the blowout loss to Wisconsin. They followed up that result, and news, with a close loss to Michigan, which makes it now 5 straight and 7 out of 8 Big 10 losses, and while we’ve seen periods of fight shown it looks like the Hoosiers season is all but over. They still cling to some life though, with so many chances and such a clean resumé outside of Q1 you can’t pull the plug on them just yet. They head to Michigan St next, so no rest for the wicked, but after that are 3 straight home games, with 2 of them being Q1. That is their last gasp, as they need to reel off all 3 of those to keep themselves alive. That would move them to 4-11 in Q1, which still probably wouldn’t be good enough but it would at least be close, with a home game with Ohio St still left as a good chance to get to 5 Q1 wins. That has to be the message from Woodson, and while I have zero faith in his ability to rally any sort of troops, you would think at some point both players and coaches would have some pride. So, they can either roll over and die or fight. We’ll see what they choose.
Houston has been playing without Emmanuel Sharp, and grinding out two wins this past week showed how much they miss his shot making. They beat dreadful Oklahoma St by just 9 at home and then pulled away late from Colorado on the road to win by just 10. Most will be surprised to see them not locked, and it likely will come in short order, as Sharp is expected to return tonight vs Baylor, but with just 4 Q1 wins and 7 of 8 to close the season as Q1 this resumé could radically change over the upcoming weeks. They are obviously a very good team, but a la Michigan St they are going to double the amount of Q1 games on the resumé over the next month. It starts vs Baylor tonight and then they have a very tough one with a trip to Arizona after that. I don’t expect them to go 0-2, but I didn’t expect them to lose at home to Texas Tech either so I’m going to make them earn it just a little more before we lock this one up. They are still the same Houston team, this resumé is just lagging behind.
Arizona is as hot as anyone in the country right now, and after going 0-5 in Q1 games in 2024, they have completely flipped the script in 2025, going 7-1 in such games since the calendar turned. They avenged their lone loss in that category on Saturday, taking down Texas Tech at home to push themselves to the doorstep of locking. The emergence of Henri Veesar has been vital to their success, and while the backcourt gets the attention he and Awaka dominating the interior has been the key to this turnaround. What keeps me from doing it is they have a very difficult 3 game stretch upcoming, with a trip to a hot K-State team trying to claw their way back to relevancy up first. After that is a home game with Houston who is always difficult to beat, making for a week that could easily cool this thing off real quick. If they do in fact go 0-2 they then have to go to Baylor to start off next week, so 3 Q1 games that could keep them from getting locked if they fail to capitalize. With how they’ve been playing I don’t expect that to happen, but this will be a big test to see if they truly are a top-10 team like many of the metrics are now showing them to be.
Kansas continues to be a bit of a disappointment this year, coming in as the preseason #1 and after another Big 12 loss they’re just 7-5 in Conference play. The loss to Kansas St on Saturday was yet another disappointment, in a string of such results as they’re just 2-3 over their last 5. Of course, in true 2025 Kansas fashion that loss followed a massive win over Iowa St, so trying to figure out this Kansas team continues to be a difficult task. While they have plenty of winnable games on the schedule coming up, they are certainly not a lock to not completely unravel, even with arguably one of the most talented rosters in the country. They also have 4 more Q1 chances, but if that goes sour they could be sitting just 5-10 in Q1, so this thing certainly isn’t a wrap just yet. They have two more games that should be massive wins, but we’ve seen them play down to lesser competition, so seeing them handle Colorado and Utah with ease would provide some confidence they can fulfill their potential at some point.
The Red Raiders extended their win streak to 7 Tuesday night with a comfortable win vs Baylor, but had it snapped late on Saturday as they fell @ Arizona. Not a bad week at all, but the resumé overall still isn’t overly strong, as shown by their 24th ranking in WAB. They certainly should feel safe right now, and having 6 Q1 wins is a huge bonus, but that 1-2 Q2 record is stinky and the horrific NCSOS is going to continue to be the black stain on this resumé. Their week upcoming could help them with that Q2 record though, as they host Arizona St and then travel to Oklahoma St, giving them the opportunity to flip that to 3-2 and overall 9-5 in Q1/2. That would make this thing much more comfortable with just 6 games to play, and with 2 more Q2 games around the corner they could rip off 4 in a row and be locked up before we get to March.
Baylor is just kind of surviving right now, as they got handled pretty easy by Texas Tech but bounced back to beat UCF handily at home. That’s pretty ho-hum if you ask me, as they aren’t really improving their stock but they’re preventing themselves from feeling like they’re in too much trouble. They’re hovering around the 8-9 seed line, and with the 2 elite wins over Kansas and St. John’s (miracle W btw) they have a pretty big edge on many of the bubble teams. They have another week where a 1-1 split will keep them right where they are, as they head to Houston and then host WVU. I would not expect them to beat Houston, but a win there would really catapult them. The real test will be the matchup with the Mountaineers, as they have proven they can win on the road with wins already over Kansas/Cincy on the road in Big 12 play. They need to at least hold serve at home to keep themselves from falling to the real cut line, but believe you me we’ll be singing a different tune if they lose both games this week, so that game Saturday is ultra important.
West Virginia: 15-8 (6-6) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 15 (58) Q1(A): (4-3) NET (38)
West Virginia is playing an interesting game, as it feels like much of the hay is in the barn as they have 4 Q1(A) wins and are merely trying to not blow it. They took a step toward blowing it this week as they lost @ TCU to fall below .500 in Q2 games. They bounced back in a can’t lose spot to beat Utah at home, but things are obviously looking shaky in Morgantown as they’ve now gone just 4-4 over their last 8. In terms of remaining schedule’s their last 8 games might be easier than anyone else in this conference, with just 3 remaining Q1 games, so they have a chance here to finish very strong and allow those elite wins to carry them to an at-large bid. However, if they do drop all 3 of those, and enter at 5-9 in Q1 and add some more Q2 losses then it’ll start getting interesting. They have BYU at home this week followed by a trip to Baylor. A split keeps them right on track and helps even up that Q2 record, but if they go 0-2 the bracketologists of the world are going to start asking themselves just how much those 4 elite wins can carry WVU. A massive bubble tilt on Tuesday night vs BYU is what that means, as the Cougs are desperate themselves for a big win.
A big swing and a miss is what this past week was for BYU as they blew a major opportunity at home, losing to Arizona and then went on the road and got dog walked by a Cincy team that had really been struggling. I thought it could be a week where they went 2-0 and put themselves on the map, but now, in my opinion, they are firmly out of this thing. Bracket Matrix still shows some folks having them in, although that’s more to do with updates needing to be done, so I would stand pretty firm that at just 5-8 in Q1/2 with only 2 Q1 wins they are not in the field right now. Either way it’s close, as I have them in my First 4 Out, so the chances this week to beat WVU on the road or K-State at home would both be massive. I think they at least have to beat the Wildcats at home, but they have been playing really well of late, including winning @ Iowa St and beating Kansas, so it’s not going to be as easy as the quadrant system suggests (barely Q2). If they fall to just 5-10 in Q1/2 it’s going to be hard to recover from, so finding a way to grind one out this week is of the utmost importance.
The train is officially off the tracks now for UCF, as they’ve lost 4 in a row and 5 of 6, going just 3-8 after starting 10-2 on the season. This weeks home loss to Cincy was particularly brutal, as it dropped them to 0-3 in Q2 games, a record that no at-large team can have. The wins over Texas Tech and A&M feel like a lifetime ago, and while the schedule softens as we enter the homestretch it feels like this weeks matchup with Iowa St coming to Orlando is their last gasp. They are going to get chances to even up that Q2 record, so there’s work left to do, but picking up a 4th Q1 win is going to be the first step toward salvaging this thing. After that they head to Colorado in a game that will help them clean up the Q2 record as we said, so it feels like a must-win week. While dropping to 3-8 in Q1 won’t eliminate them, it would put them in a position that feels like they have to win out the rest of the way. It’s a narrow path but it’s still there, and it almost HAS to include this home win over Iowa St. It’s nut up or shut up time for the Knights.
Like a Phoenix rising from the ashes Cincy appears to have been reborn and is back in the thick of this thing. They endured a tough 4 games losing stretch and overall had lost 8 of 10 when I axed them from the watch last week. They responded, winning both @ UCF and then at home vs BYU. That added 2 more wins in Q1/2, with the former barely sliding in to give them their first Q1 win. They are still not in the field, don’t get me wrong, but they do now sit at 7-9 in Q1/2 which keeps them very much in the conversation at least. This week they get Utah at home which is a must-win game and then they head to Iowa St which will be a very difficult game to pull off. They need to just stay on track, as going 1-1 is the bare minimum right now to stay in the conversation. They have just 1 home game left that will be Q1, Baylor, so winning that is paramount and they’re likely going to need to find a way to steal a road game that’s Q1. That would be 1 of their trips to Iowa St/WVU/Houston. So, I’m looking for wins vs Baylor and @ WVU as their most likely path to getting in, with just 2 losses to Iowa St/Houston. Not sure it’ll be enough but that will give them a fighting chance. What a ride for Bearcats fans, after being top-25 pre-season to fighting for your bubble lives.
The Sun Devils are in an absolute free fall, and while they still have those 3 Q1 wins to hold on to, they’re losing their grip on any sort of hope they had at getting in the dance. The most recent loss to Oklahoma St may end up being the final nail in the coffin, but with the wins they have over St. Mary’s/New Mexico/WVU all away from home they are somehow still alive. They have played one of the toughest schedule’s in the country and it’s not going to slow down. They next head to Texas Tech and the are back home to play TCU. The TCU game is a win or go home type of game, as you assume they lose to Tech on the road, so losing to TCU would drop them below .500 and extend the losing streak to 5. They are one big win away from jumping right back into this thing, but it’s hard to trust a team that has been playing so poorly to figure it out. They may be in a better situation resumé wise than K-State, but clearly they are playing worse basketball and heading in a completely different direction. Still time to turn it around, but it’s not going to be easy.
Let’s be clear, the Wildcats still have a ton of work to do if they want to get themselves legitimately in the conversation. However, they clearly have turned a corner and are playing like a tourney quality team, reeling off 5 wins in a row including the massive wins over Iowa St and Kansas. They’ve gathered all 3 of their Q1 wins in their last 3 games and have another massive one this week as they host Arizona. That would give them a 4th Q1 win and lift them to 6-9 in Q1/2, which would bring them even closer to that Next 4 Out group. Yes, they would still have work to do, but with how they’ve been playing I have no doubt they can continue to rack up wins. They have to go to BYU after the Zona matchup, so a tough week but they went to Arizona St and hosted Kansas last week which is almost as difficult and they went 2-0, so anything is possible when you’re this hot. They have 5 more Q1 games total with 7 of the final 8 being Q1/2. The path is most certainly there, and while it would be a heck of a feat to pull off, they’ve already done a lot of the heavy lifting. Just have to keep plugging away.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
St. John’s: 21-3 (12-1) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (6-0) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 73 (148) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (20)
St. John’s just had about as big of a week as you can possibly have, and considering they entered the week with just 1 Q1 win it was absolutely massive. They first nocked off Marquette at home, but more impressively they went on the road and beat UConn to push themselves to 3-3 in Q1 and 9-3 in Q1/2 games. They desperately needed to prove they belong at the top of the sport, and did so with this statement week. You may be asking, then why not locked? Well they are in a similar position as Houston, as the low number of Q1 wins limits them and also leaves them exposed if they drop a few down the stretch. Now, they’d have to drop far more than a few to really find themselves in trouble, but it’s not exactly an easy road upcoming as they have to travel to Villanova and then host a red hot Creighton team. This is the week that can confirm their lock status, as another 2-0 week would make this an open and shut case, and by the way would start pushing them up towards the 2 seed range. Quite the turnaround for Pitino, who seems to be relishing in his role in bringing St. John’s back to national relevancy.
The Jays have now won 9 in a row, with the best win of that stretch coming on Saturday when they beat Marquette. That followed an impressive road win over Providence, and they now sit alone in 2nd and just 1 game back of St. John’s in the Big East. It’s been a fantastic turnaround, as they really struggled early in the season trying to gel these transfers, and then losing Pop Isaacs to injury. They are rolling now though, with the trio of Ashworth, Neal and Kalkbrenner leading the show they are now a very dangerous team, and have built a resumé that has them pretty safely in the field right now. They are going to continue to get chances to prove that, as this week they host UConn and then head to St. John’s. That’s as tough a week as it gets, so if they stumble a bit I won’t be shocked. The schedule eases up after that, with only a trip to Xavier left as a difficult game after this week. If they go 2-0 they’ll be pushing lock status, even an 0-2 week would leave them 11-8 in Q1/2 games, plenty good enough to still be safely in the field. Important measuring stick week, but in terms of their at-large chances it shouldn’t hurt them too much if they slip up.
UConn has a pretty unique resumé all things considered, and that was furthered this week as they lost at home to St. John’s. They now have a better Q1(A) record than every other quadrant aside from Q4, pretty odd, but their propensity to play to the level of their opponent has made them must watch TV, regardless of who they’re playing. I thought they would beat the Johnnies, but with another loss they still sit somewhere in the 8-9 seed range. They finally got McNeeley back from injury, but it wasn’t enough offensive punch to get through St. John’s suffocating D. They now have to hit the road to play Creighton on Tuesday, a team that is red hot and presents a difficult cover with Kalkbrenner inside. After that is an easy W with a trip to Seton Hall, so while they may split the week that is only going to put them in a worse position if they fall to 8-7 in Q1/2 games with a bad loss out there as well. They still will be in fine position, but looking ahead they have just 1 Q1 home game left with Marquette coming in March, so finding a way to not lose ugly games is going to be crucial the rest of the way.
I said that a loss @ Villanova would be a death blow, and it may end up being that, but we’re going to keep Xavier on the radar for now. They are just 1-8 in Q1 games, not good enough, but they have the opportunity to finish the season with 7 straight wins, with the Creighton game at home teetering on Q1 right now. They need Creighton to stay hot and get into the top-30, and then beat them. The rest of their games they should be easily favored, with the trip to Providence maybe being the toughest test. If they can finish 21-10 and 13-7 in the Big East they are going to have a chance, especially if UConn or Creighton can get into the top-30 as that would add a Q1 win to the resumé. It’s not going to be easy, and going on a 7 game win streak to just stay alive certainly isn’t much to hang on to, but in the world of bubble all you can ask for is a chance. That’s their path right now, however narrow and difficult it may seem.
UK continued their rough stretch when they went to Ole Miss and got dominated. They gave up 98 points to the Rebels, highlighting their inability to defend and giving them what was ultimately their 4th loss in 5 games. They were able to bounce back and beat S. Carolina, but that didn’t add much as it was just a Q3 win, so we’re looking forward as they enter just 7-7 in Q1/2. Now, that is a much stronger 7-7 given 6 of those are Q1(A) wins, so they by no means are in trouble, but with such a tough stretch upcoming they can’t be locked just yet. They have the rematch with Tennessee up next, and you can bet the Vols are going to be coming into Rupp with revenge on their mind so that will not be easy. They then head to Texas who will be hungry for a big time win, and can really fill it up if you don’t guard. I genuinely don’t know what to expect from this Kentucky team, so I’m definitely going to be slow to lock them. If they go 2-0 this week it’s a wrap, but I have little faith that will be the result.
Ole Miss: 18-6 (7-4) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 13 (86) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (22)
Ole Miss picked up a gigantic win when they took down Kentucky this week at home, dominating them from the opening tip. They almost got caught with their pants down in the following game, but scrambled to comeback and beat LSU with a tip in at the buzzer. With that win they’ve now won 3 out of 4 after dropping 3 straight, so they’ve gotten back on track and are starting to get close to locking up. They are still below .500 in Q1, but do have 5 total Q1 wins, so they really just need 1 or 2 more quality wins to make this an open and shut case. This week will only offer up Q2 chances though, with a trip to S. Carolina up next and then a home tilt with rival Mississippi St. I don’t think they can rise to the level of lock even with a 2-0 week, but that will help them stay right on track as they sit somewhere in the 4 to 5 seed range and are looking really solid. A loss isn’t going to sink them, but it would certainly delay the lock a little bit. Either way, a pretty ho-hum stretch for the Rebels as they gear up for a brutal last 5 games.
Mizzou had a little bit of a reality check this week, as they went 0-2 in close games @ Tennessee and then vs Texas A&M. They only lost by a combined 7 points, so it wasn’t like they were totally embarrassed, but after Florida/Ole Miss/Miss St you were starting to wonder if they were a true contender in the SEC. They still are in a great position but were exposed a little bit as just a step behind the upper tier in this conference. It’s still an unbelievable turnaround by Dennis Gates after last year’s debacle, and they are by no means a lost cause. They next host Oklahoma and then go to Georgia, giving them 2 very winnable games that could take them from just 6-6 in Q1/2 games to 8-6 if they can nab them both. The home tilt with Oklahoma feels like one they need in order to bounce back, but the trip to Athens will be tricky, especially with Georgia desperate to pick up a Q1 win. So long as they can pick one of those up they’ll stay on track, but with just 6 Q1/2 wins a couple of losses could send them spiraling down into teetering territory.
State played just once since we last met and it was a huge bounce back win @ Georgia to quiet the feelings of a collapse that were building last week as they had lost 5 out of 7. They’re still just 3-5 in their last 8, but that kind of win on the road in the SEC is one that will surely provide some confidence as they are in the midst of an 8 game stretch that are all Q1 games. They are just 1-2 so far, but they return home to play Florida who will be fresh off of that huge win over Auburn, so a prime letdown spot for the Gators which gives State a huge chance to pick up a Q1(A) win. They follow that up with a trip to rival Ole Miss, so this week is very difficult but also provides two massive chances, as a 2-0 week would move them to 7-5 in Q1 and be on the doorstep of locking. That’s asking a lot, as Florida looks dominant right now and going to Oxford won’t be easy. Dropping to 5-7 might have them more towards teetering than I thought they would ever be a month ago, but that feels more likely than a sweep. Wide range of outcomes here, so we’ll see what they can do.
Another brutal week as the Sooners continue their slide as they are now just 3-7 in SEC play after going 13-0 in the non-con. Their wins over Arizona/Michigan/Louisville are going to keep them alive for a while, but if they keep dropping Q1 games they are eventually going to fall all the way out of the field. 7 of their final 8 games are Q1, so there’s a world where they are sitting something like 6-11 or even 5-12 in Q1 and at that point they would be in real trouble I would guess. I have no idea what the rest of the bubble is going to do, but I would think getting to at least 6 Q1 wins will be necessary, with 7 being more likely to have them pretty safely in. As of now they’re drifting down toward the 9 or 10 seed range, so it’s already getting dicey. They next have to travel to a good Mizzou team, a likely loss, and then host LSU in one that is a must-win that doesn’t add much to the resumé. It’s time for the Sooners to lock in, or they could find themselves quickly on the outside looking in if the next couple of weeks don’t go well.
The Longhorns had a tough week, no way around that, as they lost at home to Arkansas and then went on the road to Vandy and lost another. That’s now 3 out of 4 L’s, and at just 6-8 in Q1/2 they are nowhere close to safely in, and while they likely would be in today with one or two more losses that could easily flip. They have very little room for error now, and will be faced with 2 very difficult games this week as they host Bama and Kentucky. It presents them with unbelievable opportunities to pick up big time wins, but dropping to 3-9 in Q1 would drop them down to Dayton at the best most likely. With that being said it feels like they have to find a way to win one of these this week, as they are the final Q1 home games left for them. It feels like it’s now or never for the Longhorns, time to capitalize or potentially fade into obscurity.
One of the surprises of the season continues to hold serve, as they dropped one on the road to Florida, no shame there, but bounced back to beat Texas at home. They have been very good in Nashville so far this year, but I’m not sure if they’re good enough to take on the storm that’s about to come as the Auburn Tigers, fresh off a loss to Florida, are incoming on Tuesday. I would expect Auburn to come out with a vengeance, something I don’t think this Commodore team has enough to handle. They then have to go on the road to their in-state rival Tennessee, an absolutely nightmarish week for a team that is barely clinging on to a spot in the field right now. We’ll assume they drop to just 2-7 in Q1 and 6-8 in Q1/2, that would likely either land them in the Last 4 In/First 4 Out groups. Obviously a win in either game and they’re feeling great, but they do still have home matchups with Mizzou/Ole Miss that could still help them stay in the field. Those are the one’s I’m circling, even if they do lose both this week the path will still be there, but the pressure will mount.
With just a 2-6 record over their last 8 games the Dawgs are beginning to unravel, as those 2 wins are over the bottom 2 teams in the conference at home, so the resumé has been taking hit after hit without adding anything. The good news is they don’t have any bad losses, and they do have 3 more home games that are going to be prime opportunities to add to their resumé. This most recent loss also happened to be one of those chances as well though and they failed to capitalize, so I’m not feeling too confident they can make a run here and stay in this thing. They next have to go to A&M which is brutal, but after that they host Mizzou in what feels like an absolute must-win. If they go 0-2 they will be out of it, and will have a trip to Auburn around the corner. Things could very much go from bad to worse this week, so that matchup with Mizzou feels like a season defining game as we charge through February.
After all of the bad that went on in January, the Razorbacks have gotten themselves back into this thing. They followed up their big road win over Kentucky with another road win over Texas, before falling at home to an elite Alabama team by just 4. They have clearly figured some things out since Boogie Fland went down, and while it’s crazy to suggest losing your leading scorer makes you better it seems to have forced other guys to step up and they have found success in their new roles. Ivisic and Johnell Davis have both been instrumental, as both have notched 20+ point games during this little run. They still don’t have a great resumé, but with 3 Q1(A) wins they have given themselves a chance, and they have 4 very winnable home games left on the schedule plus a road trip to S. Carolina. Finishing 5-3 would certainly put them in the conversation, and could definitely be enough to get them in. That is very attainable, and seems more likely than a few of the other teams ahead of them right now going on a run. Things are looking up for Calipari and Co.
There’s not much to say about this Utah St team after this past week, as they went 2-0 but added just a Q3 and 4 win to the resumé. 5 of their final 7 games are going to be Q1/2, with both this next week falling in those quadrants. They first host Colorado St in a Q2 chance and then they head to New Mexico for the revenge game. There’s no reason they should lose at home, so at worst they will split this week and still be pretty safely in the field at 8-4 in Q1/2. If they can pick up both wins then you’ll start feeling more certain they are going to find themselves safe come Selection Sunday. That would also tie them with the Lobos atop the Mountain West, so on Sunday there will be a ton up for grabs when they travel to New Mexico. They need to avoid the lookahead spot, but I expect a massive matchup on Sunday in the Mountain West.
New Mexico: 19-4 (12-1) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (8-1) SOS: 87 (64) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (36)
The Lobos stayed hot this week, growing their win streak to 6 with blowout wins over Colorado St and Air Force. They have what should be another blowout win up next as they host Wyoming, but it’s the following game all eyes should be on as Utah St is heading into Albuquerque looking to avenge their home loss a few weeks ago. That game will have massive implications in the Mountain West conference race, so I will certainly be tuning in, and a win by either team will help the resumé as well. Including that game they finish with 4 chances down the stretch to add to their Q1/2 record, which sits at an impressive 8-2 right now. They’ve needed all those wins after taking on 2 very bad losses, but I would expect them to be safely in the field as long as they can win 2 of those games.
San Diego St: 14-6 (8-4) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 61 (9) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (52)
The Aztecs dropped a rough one in their lone game since we last met, losing on the road to Colorado St which dropped them to just 5-5 in Q1/2 games. They have strong SOS numbers, but that is only going to carry them so far, and with all of the chances these power conference teams are getting I feel like this resumé could get passed over. This week isn’t going to help a ton, as they head to San Jose St and then host Boise St, neither of which will be Q1, although Boise will count as Q2 so it could help a little bit. I genuinely think they can only afford 1 more loss, on the road @ Utah St, so I’m going to say they need to finish 7-1 in order to feel comfortable. If it’s 6-2 it will be close, and will depend more on what the rest of the bubble does. It starts this week though as they just need to handle business and not slip up anymore like they did a week ago.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Saint Mary’s: 20-4 (11-1) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 88 (91) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (21)
I was curious how St. Mary’s would fare this week as they headed on the road to face 2 hungry bubble teams, fresh off a win over Gonzaga. They did trip up and lose @ San Francisco, but the bounce back easy win @ Oregon St did a lot to quell any fears I had for them. They are simply just a good basketball team and should be heavily favored in all but 1 of their games the rest of the way, the rematch @ Gonzaga. This one feels pretty solid, and while they could of course drop some that we don’t expect, that’s not really who they are, as they defend well and traditionally always tear through the bottom half of this conference. I would expect that to continue, and even if they lose @ Gonzaga they will remain well above the danger zone, so it’s all about avoiding the land mines as we close out February.
Gonzaga is just not all that good this year, I think we have to face that fact, as their 2 best wins are over Baylor/San Diego St who are also down a peg this year from what they usually are. Those wins are good enough to keep them in the field, mostly thanks to the computers also loving them and having them in the top-15. In no world is this team top-15, but the computers say it so it must be true right? They’re 48th in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), so while they may look great to the metrics the results are not so great, and to me they’re barely in the field right now and should be feeling desperate for big time wins. The unfortunate part is they aren’t going to have any big time chances until the final 3 games of the season, when they host St. Mary’s for the revenge game and then go to Santa Clara and San Fran. That’s going to be the stretch that tests them and helps them improve on that 5-7 Q1/2 record. Until then they should be favored in every game, so there shouldn’t be much to report on Gonzaga until late in February, unless it’s very bad news.
Outside Looking In:
San Fran: 19-6 (10-3) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 106 (176) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (60)
What an incredible week for the Dons, as they took down Saint Mary’s and then avoided the let down spot as they went on the road to beat Loyola 2 days later. The win over the Gaels puts them firmly in the conversation, and keeps them on track to find their way in if they can stick to the plan (beat St Mary’s/Gonzaga at home). 1 step down, 1 to go, and while they probably aren’t going to fare well @ Gonzaga this week they are still going to finish with them at home to end the season. That final 2 game stretch is what I’ll be watching, as they play @ Oregon St and then host Gonzaga. Win those 2 games, plus the obvious ones over San Diego and Pacific, and I think the Dons would have a legitimate argument to get an at-large bid. We’ll see if they can get it done.
Memphis gave themselves a ton of wiggle room thanks to playing the 5th strongest non-con schedule and taking full advantage of their opportunities. They continued to roll and avoid falling victim to a sense of complacency that would be easy to succomb to, picking up home wins over bad teams. They are not really going to be challenged the rest of the way, as there isn’t a top-100 team on the schedule until a potential conference tourney rematch with North Texas. The fall off of the American is wild, and you would think after this season Memphis would be desperate to get into a better conference. Either way, they can essentially coast to the conference tourney at this point, as I don’t even think they have to play their best ball to win games right now, and that could be a problem Penny Hardaway has to navigate in order to keep them focused and getting better along the way.
Drake fans have to be massive Vandy/K-State fans right now, as they’re the only wins they have that look good and if they fall outside of Q1 then this resumé would take a major hit. They need the Commodores to continue to pick up wins in the SEC to keep that win there, and they need to just keep on winning games in the MVC. I continue to be amazed at what HC Ben McCollum has done here, and if I was a major conference team looking to go in a new direction (shoutout IU), I would be going after McCollum as the dude can clearly coach. If they win out it’ll be very interesting where they sit, but after last year’s debacle with Indiana St it’s hard to imagine they could get in without the Arch Madness title, but they have done so well they deserve to at least be on the watch for the stretch run. Any loss the rest of the way would be devastating.
VCU seems to be getting attention as a potential at-large team, and while they do have an overall 5-4 Q1/2 record, having just 1 Q1 win is not enough in my opinion. There are others that disagree though, and if they run the table the rest of the way they undoubtedly would be getting discussed. They have 0 Q1 opportunities left on the schedule, so I really don’t see how they could get in with just 1 Q1 win, but again, they’ll certainly get discussed. Last year it took 2 Q1 wins to get in, and with the way the committee treated teams with bad SOS numbers last year I just don’t see it. However, I am allowed to be wrong, and after that road win over Dayton it’s clear VCU is the team to beat, although George Mason is coming on strong. Just keep winning, that’s all they can do. Maybe next year they can schedule like Dayton and give themselves a better shot.
With their win over UC Irvine, to enact their revenge, they now have a better argument in my opinion than the Anteaters. They have a massive win @ Utah St that UC Irvine can’t compete with, and while they have fewer Q2 wins they have a chance to add one later when they travel to Cal St Northridge in late February. I still think either way one of these teams is going to have to win the conference tourney to get in, but they at least still deserve to be in the conversation, especially with that Q1(A) win. Again, as I’ll continue to say with all of these low major teams, they don’t do themselves any favors with the scheduling, as they surely could try and schedule some top teams from the mid-major conferences or something at least. To the Tritons credit they did at least have JMU and Toledo on the schedule, they just happened to have down seasons, but still it’s always going to be about major wins and if you want to have a chance at an at-large it’s going to be tough to compete with SEC/Big 10 teams who are playing 15 or more Q1 games to your 2 or 3. Even McNeese was able to land 5 Q1/2 games, which at least gave them more of a fighting chance, even though they failed to cash in. Either way, the Tritons need to win out and hope the rest of the bubble flounders.
We’re back for another update as we continue to track the top teams across college basketball and separate the wheat from the chaff. A quick aside before we dive in…There’s an underrated storyline happening in college hoops right now as we are witnessing one of the most efficient seasons, across the board, in history. Per my archetypes, we have 16 teams in the 4 trustworthy categories at the moment. That would break the previous record of 14 teams in 2017, with the average being around 11 teams. For the record, the 2017 Elite 8 included 6 of those 14, the Final 4 featured 3 and the lone “Elite” team was Gonzaga who lost in the National title game, so the proof is in the pudding. However, we now have over half of the top-30 looking good, so it begs the question, are we allowing too many seats at the table? My answer would be, hold tight. I truly don’t think that by the end of the season we’ll be sitting with 16 teams looking good, as teams like Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Marquette and Michigan are all barely in right now. Even so, I would also point out each of the archetype’s provides a unique level of trustworthiness, as the Elite teams are far more reliable than the Solid group. What will also matter are the matchups each team has in their path, so when the bracket is unveiled we’ll have even more clarity. So, before you get all high and mighty proclaiming 16 teams is way too many to consider, hold tight there’s a lot of ball to come, and also take note of the differences between the “trustworthy” archetypes.
For those new here, a quick refresher – The goal of this entire exercise is simple, try and place the “best” teams in college basketball into Archetypal buckets, and assess their likelihood of going on a deep run in March based on where they fall. This will all be derived from years of Kenpom data (2005-2024) which I have compiled to create 8 unique archetypes that, in my opinion, will help all who take notice avoid backing a horse that falls in the first weekend, and instead, lead you to hitch your wagon to one that finds itself making a deep tourney run. What we’re not attempting to do is pick the team that comes out of nowhere and goes on a deep run, a la NC State last year.
So, we will focus on the top-30 in Kenpom as of each update. For context, entering the tournament just 8 of the 76 (10.5%) total Final 4 teams since 2005 have entered the tourney outside the top-30. Just with that we already can narrow down our focus and begin to analyze what characteristics of those teams we can identify as key indicators. On top of that we can track week over week movements and spot teams who are improving vs fading.
The 8 Archetypes are:
Elite
Great
Solid
Strong Enough
Matadors
Grinders
Vanilla
Wannabe’s
Below I will provide some context for each archetype and list the teams that fall in at the time of publishing. There will be a graphic for each category that shows the criteria and the percentage of teams who fell into that category since 2005 that made it to each round. For example, 83.9% of Elite teams have made it out of the first weekend into the Sweet 16. Juxtapose that with just 19.6% of Vanilla teams and you should catch on real quick to what we’re doing here.
This week’s update:
ELITE:
Here is where we find the cream of the crop in college basketball, as these are the teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. These are exceptionally good teams, with only 1 such team over the last 2 seasons. However, we’ve already had Iowa St, Auburn and Duke land here, with both the Cyclones and Blue Devils still here this week, so it’s not looking like a year without an elite team. 84% of these teams survive the first weekend, with a whopping 42% getting to the Final 4, almost 20 points better than the next closest Archetype.
Houston and Duke remain the stalwarts in the Elite group, as they continue to play extremely efficient on both ends of the floor. Interestingly, Houston is not in line to be a 1 seed at the moment, so they could be a darkhorse entering the tourney, while also having a potentially tougher path than Duke.
GREAT:
The next couple are going to be pretty obvious but we’re notching down a peg to teams who weren’t top-10 but do happen to be top-15 on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty consistent in terms of odds of getting out of the first weekend, but does drop off decently as you go to Elite 8 and beyond. Still, with only 31 teams to have entered the tourney as “Elite” since 2005 we may find the 2nd or 3rd options this year fall here. These aren’t always your top seeds either, with 2023 UConn being a perfect example as a 4 seed falling here and winning the whole thing.
Auburn remains just a step off when it comes to defense, despite being most people’s favorite and the AP #1 they sit 3rd on our list. Still a very safe bet to get beyond the first weekend and probably an even deeper run, it just gets a bit alarming when they struggle to get stops at times. Iowa St fell off of a cliff but Florida jumped up to replace them, despite a loss to Tennessee they beat Vandy handily and have improved enough defensively to join Auburn here.
SOLID:
Following the trend here, down a peg to teams who were top-25 on both ends but outside of top-15. I will note the difference between top-20 and top-25 was negligible, with the top-20 teams much more resembling the top-25 numbers vs the top-15, so they’ve been combined.
Arizona and Maryland are both hot and ascending, while on the flip side we’re seeing Iowa St this low for the first time and we’re on the verge of losing Marquette altogether. Illinois and Michigan are also barely qualifying, helping us to have what would be a record amount of teams in the positive categories. I would expect to see fewer teams as we move forward.
STRONG ENOUGH:
This is where we start getting a little unique and into the weeds, as we’ve had to find a bucket for those that fail to land in the top-25 on both ends but are elite on one end of the floor. Conversely they aren’t horrible on the other end, so they don’t drop down to our vulnerable categories. They’re just good enough on their weaker end of the floor that their elite abilities are able to carry them with some confidence out of the first weekend. I had to find the line of demarcation, where the weakness became tangible in the results. The teams ranking above 50 over and over again stood out with early exits, so that’s where it stuck after the numbers confirmed that the teams that live in this area perform much better than those in the “Matadors” or “Grinders” categories just by limiting that weakness. Obviously, the weakness is still indicating less reliability, with nearly half as many “Strong Enough” teams reaching the Elite 8 as “Elite” teams (35% vs 67%.).
MATADORS
Now we get into the teams we have to start worrying about which are the overly unbalanced teams. This group will be the teams that can put on a show offensively but who really struggle defensively. We’ve seen time and time again this type of team lose in the first round, including top seeded teams like Kentucky (’24), Iowa (’22), and Ohio St (’21) just to name a few recent examples. The data tells us if you’re gonna be bad on one end it’s better to be worse on D than O, but it still is a stark drop off from 62% (Solid) to the Sweet 16, to just shy of 37% here.
We’re down to just the Wildcats, who have fallen from grace after picking up massive wins earlier in the season. Teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Purdue and Gonzaga have all found themselves here at some point but have made improvements defensively lately, but they’re certainly capable of finishing here if they slip up down the stretch.
GRINDERS:
Similar to the Matador group this group of teams is very unbalanced, just on the other end of the floor. We all know teams like this, that are forced to take you to the deep waters and test your resolve. Physicality, toughness and relentless pressure on D, but they just can’t seem to score the basketball on a consistent basis. These teams historically have really struggled in March, with nearly 3/4 of them flaming out the first weekend. Some recent examples include Iowa St (’23), LSU (’22), Kansas and Tennessee (’21) among many others.
The Johnnies remain our lone grinder, but UCLA is creeping.
WANNABE’S
I classified these teams as wannabe’s because they are unbalanced, excelling on one end of the floor compared to the other but not at an elite level. They’re solid on one end and competent on the other, keeping them out of the Vanilla category thanks to their better than average ability on one end but still it is not enough to make up for their deficiency on the other.
VANILLA:
These are your purely average teams, who don’t truly excel on either end of the floor. They find ways to win and remain amongst the top-30 teams but without that true strength to lean on and without the overall elite ability they’re just kind of meh, and you see it in the numbers. With greater than 80% failing to make it out of the first weekend and nearly half checking out after just 1 game these are the last teams you want to trust come March. Some recent examples include Texas Tech (’24), Virginia/Duke/Indiana (’23) and Illinois/UConn (’22) who all failed to get out of the first weekend.
5-STAR Bracketology 