*Most recent update HERE*
It was a pretty wild week of upsets, with over half of the top 10 teams losing, but for the most part the teams down on the bubble were not the ones taking advantage. We saw teams like Northwestern, Santa Clara, Cincy and Bradley all drop games they couldn’t afford and find themselves relegated to off the radar, while teams like Indiana, UNC and Iowa all fell further from contention as pressure mounts to pick up big time wins. All in all we eliminated more teams than I thought we would, including relegating the A10 to a one bid league, can you believe this collapse by Dayton? The bubble overall is looking weaker than a year ago as I’m practically begging teams to pick up Q1 wins. There were a few bright spots though, including John Calipari and Arkansas picking up a massive Q1(A) win @ Kentucky to keep themselves alive and BYU/Nebraska are starting to surge as they each picked up 2 Q1 wins to vastly improve their positions. It’s hard to say anything with certainty this time of year but I’m getting the feeling the crop of teams battling it out at the end is going to be smaller this year, maybe paving the way for a team like Drake/UC Irvine to sneak in there if they fall in their conference tourney. There’s always a team or two that makes a late surge though, so we’ll see how the landscape changes over the coming weeks, and remember a team can move from off the radar to the watch quickly if they go on a run.
So, without further ado, here’s the structure. I’m going to assign teams to 4 groups – Locks, On the Right Track, Teetering and Outside Looking In. Any team left out is not even on the radar. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.
“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, see last year, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.
“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 6-7 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.
“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, to the teams you find on the first 4 or next 4 out lists.
“Outside Looking In” – These are the desperate teams, who are not close to in according to Bracket Matrix, but have enough opportunities to have a path to work themselves in.
For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (NonCon SOS), Q1(A) wins and NET rank. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we are sitting at 60 teams on this weeks watch, but many of those will be missing out. Alright let’s get it. All info as of 2/3. Check out my current bracket projection here.
Bubble Breakdown:
Total Bids: 68
1-bid conferences: 23
Locks: 7
Bids Left: 38
Bubble: 53
–ACC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Louisville: 16-6 (9-2) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 28 (28) Q1(A): (1-3) NET: (29)
Louisville picked up a big time win early last week with a home win over Wake Forest, but stubbed their toe on Saturday when they blew a 2nd half lead in a loss to Georgia Tech. That gave them their first loss outside of Q1, and while it isn’t going to send them spiraling toward the true bubble it certainly delays us locking them up. They were up 11 at half and gave up 50 in the 2nd half to a below .500 team, not great, but everyone is afforded a stinker here and there. Hopefully it will serve as a bit of a wake up, as they next head to Boston College which continues what is now a 5 out of 7 road stretch. Hopefully we aren’t talking about a Louisville collapse in a couple of weeks, but whenever you see a loss like that you have to pump the brakes. They’ve played well on the road so far this season, so I don’t expect this to be a problem, but we’ve seen more shocking collapses over the years. A 2-0 week next week will do a lot to quell my fears, but they’ve taken their first shrapnel from this land mine filled ACC schedule.
Clemson: 18-4 (10-1) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 82 (78) Q1(A): (1-1) NET: (30)
Clemson had just 1 game since we last met, taking care of business on the road against NC State. That win didn’t do a whole lot, although it did give them a 6th Q2 W, it moreso just helped them avoid a bad loss. They have a massive chance upcoming this week with Duke coming in to town on Saturday, giving them a chance to make this an open and shut case. They will have to avoid a look ahead spot loss first vs Georgia Tech, who just knocked off Louisville, but that game Saturday represents their last chance at picking up another elite win. They’ll have other Q1 chances on the road, but you’d like to be able to pick up one at home. They also really need to grab at least 1 more Q1 win, because if they lose out on those opportunities they’re not going to feel good at just 2-4 in Q1. They have SMU on the road as the only one left after this, so they should have as much urgency as you can have, beyond just the chance to knock off Duke and tie them up in the ACC standings. Big time, big time Saturday for Clemson.
Teetering:
Wake Forest: 16-6 (8-3) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 51 (52) Q1(A): (1-5) NET: (69)
Life on the bubble is becoming quite familiar for Wake Forest fans I’m sure, and in true bubble team fashion Wake dropped a Q1 road game and then squeaked out a Q2 home game vs Pitt this week to stay right on the cut line. I have them slightly above Pitt now but it’s basically the same resumé, as each have 1 elite win they are clinging to, I just favor Wake’s win over Michigan and their 0 losses outside of Q1. The metrics don’t like the Demon Deacons because they refuse to blow teams out but they find ways to win. They are going to be tested this week with 2 tricky road tests that they desperately need, heading across country to Stanford/Cal. They really need to grab both of these, as it starts a stretch of 4 out of 5 away from home, including a Q1 chance @ SMU later down the road. Dropping their 1st game outside of Q1 would be devastating, so it’s a big week for Wake to hold serve and stack what could be 2 Q2 wins.
Pittsburgh: 14-7 (5-5) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 50 (61) Q1(A): (1-3) NET: (35)
Pitt missed out on yet another Q1 chance on Saturday, dropping a close one @ Wake Forest to drop them to just 1-6 in Q1 games. Like we said last week, their remaining Q1 chances are all on the road, and they missed out on their first crack at it. They have just 3 left, and while beating UNC earlier in the week was important, it was only a Q2 win, and no matter how you slice it 1 Q1 win is not going to get it done. 2 of their 3 remaining chances are upcoming, but they first will get a get right game with Virginia coming in. After that they’re heading to Chapel Hill in what is a massive bubble game on Saturday, with 2 teams who desperately need every win they can get. They are barely clinging to a spot in the field as it stands, but teams in other conferences are starting to stack up Q1 wins, so another Q1 loss may just knock them out of it in next weeks update. SMU is around the corner, but if I’m a Pitt fan I’m viewing the game on Saturday as close to a must-win as it gets.
Outside Looking In:
UNC: 13-10 (6-5) — Q1: (1-9) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 10 (4) Q1(A): (0-8) NET (45)
The Tar Heels are officially in a free fall, losers of 4 out of 5 they are now firmly out of the field in my book. They lost a tough one @ Pitt in a game they led late in the 2nd half and then got smoked by Duke in what was an awful week for Hubert Davis and this program. While they have played a very difficult schedule, which can excuse some of the losses (5 to top-10 NET teams), at some point you have to be able to beat good teams if you want to be considered a good team. They have just the one good win over UCLA, but are now 0-8 in Q1(A) games, which is just not going to cut it. They have just one game until we meet again, hosting Pitt in the rematch, which has now become a must-win. They can’t afford to drop a Q2 game at this point, as their main resumé point is that they are 13-2 outside of Q1(A) games. They are almost to the point they need to run the table, maybe can afford 1 loss, but I don’t think 2-10 in Q1 is going to cut it. I’m going to say it, they need to win out, or at least for sure win both the Clemson/Duke games to get in. We’ll see if they can rally and get it done.
SMU: 17-5 (8-3) — Q1: (0-3) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 11 (261) Q1(A): (0-1) NET: (41)
This SMU resumé is going to be very interesting as we move forward, as it is more akin to one of the mid-major teams we are tracking than what we would typically see in the ACC. They have somehow managed to win 17 games, playing a major conference while just playing 3 Q1 games. In each of those they got blown out, and while they continue to dominate in games outside of Q1, they just don’t have that elite win to hang their hat on. The metrics like them more than a Wake Forest for example, mostly because they tend to get hot and blow teams out like they did on Saturday vs Stanford. There’s a chance down the stretch they play 0 more Q1 games, with Clemson at home being the closest but they are barely qualifying at 29th in the NET. The game @ VA Tech this week will again do nothing for them, but home games with Pitt/Wake/Clemson are the games I’m circling. Either way I think they’re in a similar position as UNC where they need to essentially win out to have a good feeling about their chances.
Stanford: 15-7 (7-4) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: 88 (260) Q1(A): (0-2) NET: (72)
Stanford handled their business at home vs Syracuse but in a big opportunity got wrecked by SMU on Saturday. That is not good for the resumé, as it hurts the metrics big time and also drops them to just 3-6 in Q1/2 games. They still have 6 such games though down the stretch, so they actually have plenty of opportunities to improve their situation the rest of the way, and that’s why they’re still here. It starts this week in what is a must-win week with Wake Forest coming in, followed by NC State. Can’t lose either of those if they want to stay in contention, and I would expect them to win both, moving them to 4-6 in Q1/2 games with trips to Duke/Louisville still to come and a home rematch with SMU. It’s as long of a shot as there exists on the watch right now but there’s something I can’t quit with them right now.
–Big Ten–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Purdue: 17-5 (9-2) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (7-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 7 (9) Q1(A): (4-3) NET (10)
Purdue is in the best position of any team in the Big Ten right now, with that narrow win over Indiana on Friday night keeping the train rolling and improving their Q1/2 record to 12-5. They have a very difficult road to finish the season though, with 7 out of 9 being Q1 games, so that top-10 SOS is only going to improve, but it’s all of those tough games that makes me hesitant to lock just yet. They have 2 games against hungry bubble teams this week, going to Iowa and then hosting a hot USC team. I don’t expect an 0-2 week by any means, and even if they did go 0-2 they would be in a perfectly fine position still, but I just want to see at least 1 more win before I go ahead and lock them up. It’s hard to win @ Mackey, but USC has already won @ Illinois/Nebraska and are playing better and better with every game. I expect to lock the Boilers up next week, but let’s just make them earn it a bit more.
Michigan St: 18-3 (9-1) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 63 (132) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (20)
As I said last week Michigan State’s schedule was about to heat up, and after an easy win vs Minnesota Sparty headed out to LA and lost to USC. They finish with 8 more Q1 games in their final 10, and believe you me if they are just 4-11 or even 5-10 in Q1 it’s going to be way more hairy than people would think. Oklahoma was perfect outside of Q1 last year and 4-12 in Q1 and missed the tourney, with a win over Houston on their resumé. I don’t expect an Izzo led team to completely collapse the rest of the season, but there are just no easy games, with the 2 non Q1 games left being Oregon/Indiana at home, two teams capable of beating them. Again, I don’t expect a collapse but with this schedule it certainly is a possibility. They could do a lot to quell my fears this week by winning @ UCLA or vs Oregon. Given what we’ve seen though I expect them to lose again to UCLA and make the Oregon game ultra important in stopping any creeping thoughts of a collapse.
Oregon: 16-6 (5-6) — Q1: (8-4) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 14 (58) Q1(A): (4-3) NET (37)
This Ducks team might be the most confusing team in America, as they’ve now lost 4 out of 5, including twice at home and on the road to Minnesota. Horrific, but none worse than Sunday’s loss at home to Nebraska, which dropped them to just 1-2 in Q2 games. Sounds like they’re struggling, and they are, but what makes it confusing is they’re still 7-1 in Q1 games away from home. They have 4 Q1(A) wins. You look at it from that perspective and it’s one of the more impressive resumé’s on the watch that isn’t locked at this point. I have no idea where to seed them, no idea what to think about them, but it feels like a team with 8 Q1 wins couldn’t miss the tourney, but here we sit with them about to head to Michigan/Michigan St next week where it looks like they could drop 2 more and grow this losing streak to 5 straight. Let’s not forget though, they’re 7-1 in Q1 games away from home, so maybe they pick up another tough win on the road? I have no idea. I don’t know if they’re good, I don’t know what seed they should get. They’re 37 in the NET but have the 2nd most Q1 wins in the entire country behind only Auburn. Make it make sense.
Wisconsin: 17-5 (7-4) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 19 (75) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (16)
Wisconsin took a big step towards locking up with a road win over Northwestern to help quiet any noise of another late season collapse. They lost @ Maryland, no shame in that, but I was worried about an 0-2 week being a signal of bad things to come. They took down Northwestern though and have a very good resumé right now, with some very winnable home games still on the schedule. Based on their schedule they may be just 1 or 2 wins away from locking, as they have 5 of 9 at home and against some of the bottom tier teams in the league. Another good week from the Badgers and this may be the last time we have to write about them, so shout out to transfer John Tonje who has seemingly come out of nowhere to lead them offensively. He’s shooting nearly 46% from 3 in Conference play and is a huge reason they are where they are and why they may make it out of the first weekend in March for the first time since 2017.
UCLA: 16-6 (7-4) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 29 (104) Q1(A): (3-1) NET (28)
It’s safe to say the train is back on the tracks for UCLA as they’ve ripped off 5 straight wins now after losing 4 in a row to kick off January. It was starting to get hairy a few weeks back, as Cronin was taking to post game pressers to rip his guys and blaming travel for their issues. They have gotten things figured out though, picking up wins @ USC and vs Oregon this week to put themselves in a much better spot entering February. Maybe the travel was an issue, as they’ve gone to just Washington and stayed in LA to play USC during this stretch, so we’ll see how upcoming trips east go, as this is just life in the Big 10 now for the old PAC-12 teams, gotta figure it out. For now we’ll acknowledge they’re in a fantastic spot, with 5 Q1 wins and 2 more upcoming home games vs Michigan St and Penn St, they could be 18-6 and nearing lock status next week so long as they keep handling their business.
Maryland: 17-5 (7-4) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 53 (325) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (15)
The Terps had just one game this week and stayed hot, taking down Wisconsin at home to make it 4 straight wins and 6 out of 7. They’ve quickly gone from firmly on the bubble to sitting pretty, as they’ve picked up 3 straight Q1 wins to vastly improve their resumé. This most recent win over Wisconsin continued the recent trend of their starting 5 carrying the load, as they have shortened the bench and are playing all 5 starters 30+ minutes. They had just 6 bench points and all 5 starters were in double figures, but that has been the new normal over this streak and it’s hard to argue with a 6-1 record as the result. They have to go to Ohio St and then host Rutgers this week, and if they’re able to win both of those we may be able to lock them up already. I would expect that game in Columbus to be very difficult to pull off, and a 1-1 week would not be anything to be upset about with the way Ohio St is playing of late. We’ll see how it plays out but right now the Terps are one of the hottest teams in the Big 10.
Illinois: 15-7 (7-5) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 14 (58) Q1(A): (2-4) NET (12)
Illinois almost had a very bad week after they kicked it off with a road loss to Nebraska, they were on the ropes on Sunday at home vs Ohio St. They were able to come back and notch another Q1 win, but it highlights how shaky they have been over the last few weeks, going just 3-4. Their resumé has benefited from some teams rising in the NET (Arkansas cracking top-50), but still at this moment in time it looks very solid with 6 Q1 wins. They have a stretch upcoming where, if they can handle business, they can make this an open and shut case. They head to Rutgers/Minnesota this week, and while they’re tricky road games they’re Q2 games and ones you need to take care of if you are who you say you are. Then they head home to play UCLA/Michigan St next week. A 4-0 or 3-1 stretch over this stretch and it will be a wrap, but with how inconsistent they’ve played it remains a mystery what we will see transpire.
Michigan: 16-5 (8-2) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (1-0) SOS: 46 (129) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (17)
Michigan had an under the radar but huge week, as they were really struggling, losing to Minnesota, almost losing to Northwestern and then getting blown out by Purdue they were starting to show some cracks. They locked back in, albeit in close games, but beating Penn St and then @ a desperate Rutgers team they settled back in and are right in the thick of the Big 10 race. Like a lot of these Big 10 teams the schedule down the stretch is brutal though, with 8 of their final 10 of the Q1 variety, we’re going to learn really quick who they are. They’ve only played 6 Q1 games to this point, with mixed results, so it’ll be interesting to see how this group of transfers plays through such a gauntlet. It starts this week as they host Oregon and then head to a desperate Indiana team needing marquee wins.
Teetering:
Ohio St: 13-9 (5-6) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 4 (28) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (26)
I said they needed to handle business at home and find a way to steal 1 or 2 road games down the stretch, and last week they did just that. They started by beating Iowa comfortably at home, but the road win @ Penn St later in the week felt far more important. They then came very close to beating Illinois in Champaign, but ultimately lost and now sit 7-9 in Q1/2 games. I think they’re in right now, looks like most agree, and they have an upcoming stretch of 4 home games in their next 5 so they should be able to strengthen their resumé even more. This week they get Maryland at home, another Q1 chance and one they desperately need to stay on track. The trip to Nebraska later in the week will be tough, but either way it’s 2 Q1 games that they absolutely need to land 1 of. If they drop to 7-11 in Q1/2 games then it will be hairy, so the pressure is on to convert on these opportunities.
Nebraska: 14-8 (4-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 19 (162) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (50)
Credit to Hoiberg and this team, as they stopped their 6 game losing streak with a massive win over Illinois at home and then followed that up with yet another massive win @ Oregon. Absolutely insane pivot after looking like they were in a freefall, but they’ve swung this thing back to the right side of the bubble, with 3 Q1(A) wins they should be solidly in right now, albeit somewhere around a 10 seed so not comfortable just yet. They leaned heavily on Brice Williams in these 2 games, and he responded by dropping 55 combined points on 44 shots, so it’s clear moving forward they’re going to ask him to carry them. They’ll need him, because they need to continue to stack wins, and they have great chances this week, with another road game @ Washington which is very winnable and then they host Ohio St. Another 2-0 week and things are very good, but given this team’s recent history it feels like an 0-2 week is just as likely, so this thing could go absolutely any direction right now.
USC: 13-8 (5-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 48 (251) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (68)
The Muss Buss is back in business, as the Trojans picked up a massive home win over Michigan St to bring them right up to the cut line. They are firmly in the “Last 4 In”, “First 4 Out” conversation, with the terrible NCSOS dragging them down a bit. The big time win @ Illinois looms large, along with this most recent win over Sparty, they are truly on the precipice. They have 2 more Q1 chances this week, both on the road and the first of which being Northwestern who is down Barnhizer, so very winnable. If they can go 1-1 this week, losing @ Purdue, then they would likely find themselves in the field, albeit close still. 2-0 obviously would vault them well into the field, but we’re not going to expect them to go into Mackey and win. They just need to find a way to knock off Northwestern and they’ll still be in good shape, with winnable home games upcoming.
Outside Looking In:
Indiana: 14-8 (5-6) — Q1: (2-8) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 39 (166) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (65)
The Hoosiers continued their slide this week, dropping a nail biter @ Purdue, and while they played really well and had a chance to win it, at the end of the day it was their 5th loss in 6 games, dropping them firmly out of the field. We spoke last week about their difficult schedule, but what they face now is a stretch of 4 out of 6 at home. They have to have all eyes forward, as they truly have a chance to go on a run and make the tourney. Going to Wisconsin is a tough way to start, but those 4 home games are coming, with Michigan at home this week. They have to be able to stop the bleeding and beat the Wolverines at home. While they may lose @ Wisconsin and Michigan St over the next 9 days, that 3 game in a row stretch at home to follow is going to be the pivotal point in the season. Hoosier fans of course want more than to be on the bubble, but if the locker room stays together they do still have a shot at getting in the dance. However far below expectations that may be, it’s still something.
Iowa: 13-8 (4-6) — Q1: (0-7) Q2: (6-0) Q3: (0-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 48 (197) Q1(A): (0-5) NET (63)
Iowa has pretty much made it clear who they are to this point, as they can handle 2nd level type teams, but every time they have a Q1 chance they fail to capitalize. They remain on the watch though because if they can just pick up a couple big wins their resumé would instantly become compelling. They failed in their one attempt this week, dropping one @ Ohio St and it wasn’t even close. This week might be the week that either bursts their bubble, keeps them alive or even flips them to in the field. They host Purdue and Wisconsin, 2 Q1 chances at home, and to be charitable to them these are their first home Q1 chances since they lost to Iowa St in early December. It’s hard to win on the road, and with a home environment that usually delivers they certainly have the chance to have a 2-0 week that completely flips their season. To add to the urgency, they have just 1 remaining home Q1 chance after this with Sparty coming in March, so this week truly is make or break for the Hawkeyes.
–Big 12–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Houston: 17-4 (9-1) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 37 (72) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (3)
The metrics, as always, love Houston, thanks to their python like ability to suffocate and crush inferior opponents. However, they continue to struggle in close games against really good teams. They were able to beat WVU on the road this last week, but they’re just a fringe top-50 team, and while it counts as a Q1 game, the home loss to Texas Tech is the more indicative result in my opinion. While the computers love them, they have struggled to win elite games, and their resumé continues to look like Auburn’s last year, who ended up 5th in the NET but a 4 seed. That’s where I continue to have Houston, which by no means makes them lockable at this stage. My belief is they will continue to crush the teams they should beat, and that will eventually make them a lock, but their seed is not yet going to reflect their NET ranking, something people seem to need reminded of year after year. As I mentioned Auburn is a great example as a 4 seed and ranked 5th in NET last year, but also S. Carolina was a 6 seed and ranked 51st. It’s a tool to measure, not a major factor in seeding. I digress, they play Colorado and Oklahoma St this week, teams they will likely beat by 20-30 points and bring them close to locking.
Kansas: 15-6 (6-4) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 8 (24) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (9)
Kansas continues to be a bit of a disappointment this year, coming in as the preseason #1 and after another Big 12 loss they’re just 6-4 in Conference play. The loss to Baylor on Saturday was particularly shocking, blowing a 21 point lead to a team playing without their usual starting PG and one they completely outmatched on the front line. The fact that a group including Dickinson/Bidunga/Adams allowed Baylor to out rebound them by 13 is just flat out embarrassing. I am not sure what the move for Bill Self is going forward, but clearly they are not right, as they barely beat UCF at home earlier in the week. They better wake up quickly, because a hungry Iowa St team off an embarrassing loss themselves is heading to Allen Fieldhouse. While they have plenty of winnable games on the schedule coming up, they are certainly not a lock to not completely unravel, even with arguably one of the most talented rosters in the country. A win over Iowa St of course dispels many of the questions, but it’s hard to not question them going forward.
Arizona: 15-6 (9-1) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 17 (32) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (11)
Arizona kicked off a brutal stretch last week with a bang, beating Iowa St off of a miraculous Caleb Love heave at the buzzer to send it to OT and followed that up with a road win over rival Arizona St. They are absolutely rolling right now, as they’re 11-1 over their last 12 and have added all 5 of their Q1 wins in that stretch. The schedule has no let up in sight, as they next head to Provo to face a hot BYU team and then host an even hotter Texas Tech team. Those are both Q1 chances, so if they’re able to go 2-0 this week we’d be seriously looking at them as a lock with 7 Q1 wins. It’s a lot to expect, but with how they’ve been playing I wouldn’t be shocked, as they’ve gone from 4-5 overall in mid-december to entering February tied with Houston for the top spot in the Big 12. Quite the turnaround and something nobody saw coming given how strong Iowa State and Kansas looked heading into conference play.
Texas Tech: 17-4 (8-2) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 61 (296) Q1(A): (3-2) NET (8)
Texas Tech continues to be white hot, winners of now 6 in a row, including 4 Q1 victories, none more impressive than Saturday’s stunner over Houston. They lost JT Toppin early in the game to a horrifying flagrant call that resulted in both his and HC Grant McCasland’s ejections. Somehow they still found a way to beat Houston in Houston and break their 33 game home winning streak in what was probably the most impressive win of the weekend. They have cemented themselves as true contenders in the Big 12, and resumé wise are starting to really make up for the fact they played a horrific non-con schedule. That likely will hurt them seed wise, but with 3 Q1(A) victories now and an overall 6-4 record in Q1/2 they have to feel pretty good as we make the turn into February. They’ll have 2 more chances as big time wins this week as they host Baylor and then head to Arizona. I would say that a split seems most likely, but after they won @ Houston it’s hard to just assume they’ll lose on the road, as good as Arizona has been. A 2-0 week may just send them to locksville.
Teetering:
West Virginia: 14-7 (5-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 10 (57) Q1(A): (4-4) NET (40)
Sunday’s win @ Cincy was huge for the Mountaineers as they were starting to lose control of this thing after the loss vs Houston earlier in the week made it 5 out of 7 L’s. They were able to pick up their 5th Q1 win, and while they’re still under .500 at 6-7 in Q1/2 those 4 Q1(A) wins are going to continue to buoy them. Javon Small is absolutely carrying this team, but when they’re at their best the defense is clearly the strength. They held Cincy to 50 points in that big win, and now have a relatively easy week upcoming with TCU and Utah up next, it’s as much of a reprieve as you can get in Big 12 play. They do have to go on the road to play TCU, but that’s a great chance to improve that Q2 record to 2-2 to reduce the largest stain on the resumé. If they somehow drop to just 1-3 in Q2 I don’t think it knocks them out, thanks to those 4 elite wins, but it certainly makes their resumé a tricky one to seed. The committee has in the past overlooked bad losses when there are elite wins to make up for it, so I think they’re okay, but they could make their lives easier by just going 2-0 this week.
Baylor: 13-7 (6-4) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 6 (14) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (27)
Baylor was oh so close to both having a 2-0 week last week and an 0-2 week, as they went to OT with BYU nearly picking up a huge road W only to fall. Then they came out on Saturday completely flat against Kansas before rallying from down 21 to knock off the Jayhawks. It was a wild week full of inconsistent play, but overall they went 1-1 in Q1 games including a critical Q1(A) win over Kansas. Ultimately what it did was provide some breathing room for them as they separate from the true bubble, but at just 6-6 in Q1/2 games they certainly can’t feel safe. The schedule upcoming provides some relief, with 3 of their next 5 at home, with UCF up next as a very winnable game. Sandwiched in that stretch are road games with Houston/Texas Tech though, so holding serve at home is going to be critical for them to remain on the right side of things.
UCF: 13-8 (4-6) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (0-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: 16 (165) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (64)
UCF had a really tough week, as they went to Allen Fieldhouse and went blow for blow with Kansas but ultimately lost. They followed that up by losing another tight one at home to BYU to drop down to just 3-8 in Q1/2 games. While they have the impressive wins over Texas A&M/Texas Tech, the overall resumé is just looking weaker and weaker, especially that 0-2 Q2 record. I don’t think they should be in at this point, but others disagree so they remain teetering as of now, with those 2 elite wins elevating them right now. I only think they can be buoyed so much by those elite wins, but either way it’s a critical juncture in the season for the Knights. They host fellow bubble team Cincy this week in what I would consider a must-win as they can’t drop to 0-3 in Q2, especially since they head to Baylor after that. Another 0-2 week would absolutely drop them out of the field, and even a split that dropped them to 4-9 in Q1/2 would still leave them in a precarious position. It’s nut up or shut up time for UCF.
Arizona St: 12-9 (3-7) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 5 (26) Q1(A): (1-6) NET (58)
The Sun Devils actually started putting together a quality resumé in non-con play knocking off St. Mary’s and New Mexico, but Big 12 play has really beaten them down so far. They lost 4 out of 5 to start including a home game to UCF that was almost backbreaking, until they went to WVU and won to keep this thing alive. It is likely going to be touch and go the rest of the way with this group, but the strong SOS numbers and those wins in the non-con give them a fighting chance still even with the slow start to Big 12 play. They have several Q1 home games left with Arizona/Houston/Texas Tech all going to Tempe still, so the opportunities will be there to still give you some hope. Bobby Hurley is now in year 10 here and is still looking for his first tourney win and Arizona St as a program hasn’t had one since 2009, so I would think pressure would be mounting to get this program some momentum, we’ll see if they can find it.
Outside Looking In:
BYU: 15-6 (6-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 83 (295) Q1(A): (0-3) NET (33)
This past week was as good a week as you could ask for if you’re team on the bubble, as BYU picked up close wins over Baylor at home and UCF on the road to pick up their first 2 Q1 wins. They are now firmly in the conversation, and while I still have them out, you’ll most likely start seeing them pop up on people’s Last 4 In lists. I still think the wins aren’t impressive enough, the losses are pretty ugly and those SOS numbers are really bad. However, they are going to have plenty of chances to improve their situation though, and with how they’re playing I expect them to continue to convert. One of their best chances is on deck as Arizona is set to come to Provo, with road trips to Cincy and WVU after that which are very winnable. I don’t necessarily expect them to win 3 straight, but it is not out of the question, and that would certainly flip them into the field. As I said last week this is a dangerous team if they put it together, and it’s increasingly looking like they are.
–Big East–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
St. John’s: 19-3 (10-1) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (8-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 89 (171) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (24)
The Johnnies didn’t add much to their resumé this past week but going 2-0 was exactly what the doctor ordered. They are still lacking quality wins, keeping them from the seed line you’d expect from a Big East team with their record. The good news for them is the quality chances are upcoming, with a matchup at home with Marquette and then a trip to UConn. They definitely need to go at least 1-1 this week if they want to stay on track, as dropping to just 1-5 in Q1 would definitely put them in the teetering category. Tuesday night’s game vs Marquette is their lone Q1 chance at home left on the schedule, unless UConn can find their way into the top-30. However you slice it this is a pivotal week for St. John’s as they desperately need to notch a marquee win or two, so finding a way to knock one of the other top teams in the Big East will go a long way to making them a lock come Selection Sunday.
UConn: 16-6 (8-3) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 52 (60) Q1(A): (3-0) NET (32)
UConn has a pretty unique resumé all things considered, and that was furthered this week as they went on the road to beat Marquette. They now have a better Q1(A) record than every other quadrant aside from Q4, pretty odd, but their propensity to play to the level of their opponent has made them must watch TV, regardless of who they’re playing. That was perfectly on display last week, as they trailed by us much as 14 to lowly DePaul before coming back to win, and then went into Marquette and picked up a massive road win over the best team in the Conference. They play just once this week and it’s a home tilt with St. John’s, another massive Q1 chance, and given what I just droned on about it figures to be another great game. I would expect them to win, although it’s strength on strength with the Huskies elite offense will take on the Johnnies top-10 defensive unit. A win would put UConn in an even safer position, and while they sit around an 8 seed right now I would expect another jump into on the right track with a 5th Q1 win.
Creighton: 16-6 (9-2) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 34 (36) Q1(A): (2-3) NET (36)
Creighton continues to be one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of 7 straight and 9 of their last 10 they have quickly moved from the fringe to pretty firmly in. They picked up a big time road win over Villanova, albeit a bit lucky as Steven Ashworth banked in a 3 to take the lead in the dying seconds. That followed a home win over Xavier and the 2 wins improved them to 9-6 in Q1/2. That record is good enough to feel somewhat safe, but they still find themselves on the 8 ish seed line, so things can turn quickly with a few losses. This week offers them a couple of big opportunities to jump even higher though, as they first will have to navigate a tricky trip to Providence, a team that is feisty and capable of an upset. Then comes the bigger opportunity, as on Saturday they host Marquette. Winning that one would take them to 5-4 in Q1 and take them into the On the Right Track status.
Teetering: N/A
Outside Looking In:
Xavier: 13-9 (5-6) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 40 (142) Q1(A): (1-4) NET (52)
Xavier missed on one of their few opportunities remaining with their loss @ Creighton this week, and they now are firmly on the outside of things with few chances left to improve their resumé. They now sit just 1-7 in Q1 games, and while the rest of the bubble isn’t strong either there is just no world in which 1 Q1 win is going to be enough. Therefore, we have to look ahead, and it just so happens this week is their lone remaining Q1 game of the regular season. They first host Georgetown in a must-win spot, and then they head to Villanova. That is not going to be an easy game, but Nova is so pathetically bad defensively you have to beat them if you consider yourself a tourney team. I’m calling this a must-win week for the Musketeers, as going 2-0 is the only path forward, dropping to 1-8 in Q1 games with no remaining chances is a death blow. It’s nut up or shut up time for Xavier.
–SEC–
Locks:
On the Right Track:
Florida: 18-3 (5-3) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: 45 (250) Q1(A): (1-2) NET (5)
Florida really stubbed their toe this week as they took a trip to Knoxville and got blown out by a Tennessee team playing without 2 of its starters. The swing in point spread in their 2 games was a whopping 50, which is beyond bizarre given how good the two teams are, but it allows me to continue to highlight how meh this resumé is. They have just 4 Q1 wins, of which only 1 is the of the Q1(A) variety, something more akin to teams near the cutline. They have elite metrics though, and only 3 losses is obviously very impressive, but in order to lock this week I was looking for 5+ Q1 wins, no bad losses and multiple elite wins. That’s not even mentioning the horrible SOS numbers. I think most people off the top of their head would assume Florida is in a better position than this, but A&M has 7 Q1 wins, 4 of which are Q1(A), serving as a great example of how inadequate this resumé is right now. They obviously have tons of chances to improve on it, but this week is just a Q2 home game vs Vandy and then a trip to Auburn. That’s a tough one to pick up, and dropping to just 4-4 in Q1 will not get them locked, even with a sparkly 6-0 Q2 record and 5th rank in NET. Beat Auburn though and I’ll stop yammering and lock them up.
Kentucky: 15-6 (4-4) — Q1: (7-5) Q2: (0-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 3 (45) Q1(A): (5-4) NET (19)
Kentucky continues to be an enigma to me, as they can seemingly beat anyone but as the home loss this past week highlights they can also lose to anyone. They are an elite offensive team but their inability to get stops is killing them. They’ve now lost 3 out of 4, but in true 2025 UK fashion the 1 win sprinkled in their was @ Tennessee. Make it make sense. All of that said they honestly meet most of my criteria for lock status, with 7 Q1 wins, 5 of which are Q1(A) and elite SOS numbers they are right on the precipice, it’s just that loss to Arkansas gave them a loss outside of Q1 and they next head to Ole Miss. I still doubt a team with this many elite wins would miss the tourney, but with 10 games to play and just 15 wins it feels too early to lock them just yet. After the trip to Oxford they host S. Carolina, and if they enter that after a loss it becomes a must-win if you want to avoid an intense feeling of impending doom. Way too early to panic, but this week can do a lot to calm any fervor surrounding a collapse.
Missouri: 17-4 (6-2) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 42 (193) Q1(A): (3-4) NET (21)
This Mizzou team continues to be the biggest story nobody is talking about, as they have recovered from an 0-18 season in SEC play to be sitting in fantastic position this year. They have already amassed 4 Q1 wins and are 6-2 in the SEC, putting them somewhere around the 4-5 seed line. They are not only vying for a bid they are rapidly approaching lock status, absolutely remarkable. Their incredible run may have peaked a few weeks ago when they beat Florida in Gainesville, but this weeks blowout win @ Mississippi St was almost as impressive. They are quickly going from just a feel good story to a legitimate contender in the SEC, and this week they play two of the top teams in the conference to try and cement themselves. While heading to Tennessee is not easy, they’ve already beaten UF/Mississippi St on the road, and even if they fall short they host Texas A&M after that, giving them a home Q1 chance to close out the week. Finding a way to win one of these 2 this week would bring them into serious lock consideration. What a story…please spread the word.
Ole Miss: 16-6 (5-4) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 11 (81) Q1(A): (2-6) NET (23)
Chris Beard’s group started the season 15-2 but have struggled over the past few weeks, going just 1-4 over their last 5. They still have a really solid resumé but the schedule is not going to let up so I’m starting to get a bit worried. The facts are though that all of their losses are Q1(A), so there really isn’t a threat of them totally collapsing, as they continue to beat teams that they should. I think that should continue, but first they’re going to get another crack at a great team with UK coming to Oxford. Win that and I’ll feel much better, but part of me is expecting them to lose and then bounce back with a road win over LSU. I’m looking at them as a tier 2 team in this Conference, and while that’s plenty good to get in the tourney, it’s likely going to take some time before they are lock worthy. A 2-0 week though and I might just amend that opinion.
Mississippi St: 16-6 (4-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 23 (108) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (31)
Similar to their in-state rival Mississippi St is beginning to flounder, but in a much worse way. They have now lost 5 of 7, and unlike Ole Miss they have just 1 elite win and have a loss outside of Q1. Also the 2 wins during that stretch were in OT, not great. It’s still a good enough resumé as of now though, but the losses this past week to Bama and Mizzou, at home no less, are going to make it much more difficult down the stretch. They have 5 out of their final 9 on the road and 8 of them are going to be Q1. This week it’s the lone trip to Georgia, who is going to be desperate to pick up a win at home to try and stay in the field. I would not be surprised if we’re looking at Mississippi St off yet another loss in next weeks addition and we’ll start to be wondering if they are going to be this year’s Oklahoma. We tend to always have a late season collapse, and if I had to nominate one team right now this is the one. They could start to change my mind with a win this week, but excuse me for feeling a bit skeptical.
Teetering:
Oklahoma: 16-5 (3-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 38 (142) Q1(A): (2-4) NET (38)
Oklahoma looked to be spiraling a mere 2 weeks ago as they had lost 4 straight games, but they’re now 3-1 over the last 4, putting themselves in much better position. The blowout win over Vandy was big for the metrics, and the close loss @ A&M did absolutely zero damage to the resumé. Overall I think they’re undervalued on Bracket Matrix, with a 6-5 Q1/2 record and multiple elite wins I would have them slightly higher, but Lunardi has them all the way down at an 11 seed, although I would argue he should not be your primary source for this information. All of that aside they have a nasty week upcoming, with a trip to Auburn on deck and then Tennessee coming to Norman. That smells like an 0-2 week, and frankly they’d still be in the field if that’s the result. If they can find a way to knock off Tennessee at home though then we’ll absolutely move them into On the Right Track territory. It could get ugly, but it’s also 2 massive opportunities to cement themselves into the field.
Texas: 15-7 (4-5) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 22 (274) Q1(A): (2-5) NET (25)
Tre Johnson continues to ball out for the Longhorns as they continue to rack up Q1 wins. They added one this week with a road win over LSU, making it their 4th such win over the last 2 weeks to take them from the outside looking in to pretty firmly in. I’m not convinced they’re the most well coached team out there, but they are insanely talented, and it seems this rag tag group is starting to gel which makes them very dangerous. The NCSOS is going to remain dreadful, but in the SEC there’s so many challenging games it likely isn’t going to matter. They are going to have 2 more chances to add quality wins this week, with Arkansas coming to Austin and then a trip to Vandy. While those won’t be elite wins by any stretch picking those up is going to be vital in keeping this train on the tracks. Of course a loss, especially on the road to Vandy, isn’t going to knock them out, but an 0-2 week certainly would push them close to the cut line. Life on the bubble is never easy, but in the SEC it’s as hairy as it gets.
Vanderbilt: 16-5 (4-4) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 65 (331) Q1(A): (1-3) NET (44)
Vandy took a little bit of a step back this week, as they got absolutely pounded by Oklahoma in their lone game since we last met. They are 2-2 so far in a stretch that involves 13 out of 14 games being Q1, so while we may mention schedules across the country being difficult I don’t think any of them compare to this Vandy stretch. This week they have to go to Florida and then they host Texas, and if that goes poorly they could drop to just 3-5 in Q1 and overall 5-7 in Q1/2. That would likely have them right on the edge, so finding a way to hold serve at home vs Texas is absolutely imperative. They have been good at home so far, knocking off both Tennessee and Kentucky most recently, so they certainly can do it, but coming off a 30 point loss and a potential butt kicking in Gainesville it’ll be interesting to see how they respond.
Georgia: 15-7 (3-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 24 (232) Q1(A): (1-6) NET (34)
Well they did a little bit to at least slow the bleeding a bit but a win over S. Carolina unfortunately doesn’t mean much, and losing 5 out of 6 is far more indicative of this situation right now. The good news for the Dawgs is they have 3 of their next 4 games at home against LSU/Miss St/Mizzou, all very winnable. If they’re going to turn this thing around and stay in the field they need to go 3-1 over their next 4, and at minimum 2-2 to at least stay in the conversation. Given all of that this week is absolutely massive, with LSU in Athens first followed by a reeling Mississippi St team. It would be easy for this young team to start to unravel under the pressure of this SEC gauntlet, but given how well they’ve played at home (nearly knocked off Auburn) I feel like they can take down anyone and are setup nicely to find themselves somewhere around a 10 seed. I’m confident, but we’ll see if they can actually get it done.
Outside Looking In:
Arkansas: 13-8 (2-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 32 (150) Q1(A): (2-4) NET (47)
John Calipari pulled off one final act in Lexington, as he took his downtrodden new team into Rupp Arena and shocked Kentucky. That win kept them alive for at least a little bit longer, and could be a catalyst for them to go on a run down the stretch. They now have 2 Q1(A) wins, however with just a 3-8 Q1/2 record they are pretty firmly out of it at this point. They are going to need to continue to stack wins as we charge through February, and since they are in the SEC they are going to have chance after chance to win their way into the field. They have a road trip to Texas followed by Bama at home, 2 massive Q1 chances. If they fall to 3-10 in Q1/2 they are going to have as big a mountain to climb as is even somewhat feasible, but with this much talent and Cal as their HC I just can’t quit them. I mean, we all just watched them win in Rupp right? Can’t quit em.
–Mountain West–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Utah St: 18-3 (9-2) — Q1: (2-0) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 99 (110) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (39)
Utah St took a major hit to their case losing at home to New Mexico this week. It was a bit of a meltdown in the 2nd half, as they led by 6 at halftime and ended up losing the game by 19. They couldn’t hit a shot and ultimately lost their grip on 1st place in the Mountain West and with a 3rd loss outside of Q1 this resumé is looking less convincing. Unfortunately life in this conference isn’t going to offer them many opportunities to improve it, so they’re going to need to avoid taking any additional bad losses. They’re going to continue to hang their hat on the St. Mary’s win at their place, especially after the college hoops world just watched Gonzaga go there and lose. They have 4 games left that can help their Q1/2 record, but 3 of them are on the road, so it’s not going to be easy to make this thing feel safe. Crazy to say about a MW team that’s 18-3 but when you don’t schedule tough and your conference is down this is where you wind up.
San Diego St: 14-5 (8-3) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 62 (10) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (48)
I think at this point you could start to argue that San Diego St has a better resumé than Utah St, especially when you look at those Q1 wins and the SOS. This past week they just survived and advanced, adding just a couple of Q4 wins, but the wins over Houston and Creighton are the best 2 wins any team in the Conference has. They are pathetically bad offensively but in true Aztec fashion are one of the top defensive teams in the country and that is carrying them at this point. This week they have just 1 game and it’s a tricky trip out to Colorado St who is playing well but it’s a Q2 game at this point. They could definitely use a win there, improving their Q2 record to 3-1 would help, but their next big time chance isn’t until later this month @ Utah St, so any win at this point is needed given how few the opportunities are in the conference.
New Mexico: 17-4 (10-1) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (7-1) SOS: 84 (65) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (46)
New Mexico had one of the biggest wins of the week, going to Utah St and wrestling first place away from the Aggies and putting themselves in much better position. They’re now 8-2 in Q1/2 games, a very impressive record, and while they have 2 pretty bad losses the wins are starting to make up for those. I think they’re pretty solidly on the right side of the bubble right now, but given how many land mines exist in this conference it’s hard to ever feel like one of these teams are safe. They have a bit of a break over the next 3 games, although they can’t think of it like that, but they then will have 4 out of 5 games that were Q1/2 chances as February wraps up and we head into March. So, they need to hold serve, starting with a home win over Colorado St and then a road trip to lowly Air Force. We have seen them drop games they shouldn’t, not only this year but year’s past as well, so I’ll never feel like any game is a sure-fire win, but they absolutely have to have the next 3. We’ll see what happens.
–WCC–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track: N/A
Teetering:
Saint Mary’s: 19-3 (10-0) — Q1: (3-1) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 106 (97) Q1(A): (1-0) NET (22)
St. Mary’s had about as big of a week as they could ask for, picking up 2 Q1 wins with a road W @ Santa Clara and then the biggest of all at home vs Gonzaga. They have now won 10 straight games, all in WCC play and have improved to 7-3 in Q1/2 games. They feel like they should be pretty safe, but it’s the WCC and not only is there disaster around every corner but this week is lowkey maybe more tricky than last week. They head to both San Francisco and Oregon St who are both on the outside looking in and desperate for big time wins. St. Mary’s is the hunted now in this conference, and those two teams are going to be desperate to notch a marquee win. It’s not often we talk about St. Mary’s being in the best position in the WCC, but with Gonzaga’s struggles they are the clear top dog this year, and these games this week will be a big test to how they will respond to being in this position.
Gonzaga: 16-7 (7-3) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: 66 (25) Q1(A): (0-2) NET (13)
Gonzaga is just not all that good this year, I think we have to face that fact, as their 2 best wins are over Baylor/San Diego St who are also down a peg this year from what they usually are. Those wins are good enough to keep them in the field, mostly thanks to the computers also loving them and having them in the top-15. In no world is this team top-15, but the computers say it so it must be true right? They’re 50th in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), so while they may look great to the metrics the results are not so great, and to me they’re barely in the field right now and should be feeling desperate for big time wins. The unfortunate part is they aren’t going to have any big time chances until the final 3 games of the season, when they host St. Mary’s for the revenge game and then go to Santa Clara and San Fran. That’s going to be the stretch that tests them and helps them improve on that 5-7 Q1/2 record. Until then they should be favored in every game, so there shouldn’t be much to report on Gonzaga until late in February, unless it’s very bad news.
Outside Looking In:
San Francisco: 17-6 (8-3) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: 120 (182) Q1(A): (0-1) NET (67)
Well this is the week, with Thursday night being the specific night for this San Francisco program as they have an opportunity to knock off St. Mary’s at home and notch their first Q1 win. They handled Wazzu this week, added very little to their resumé but frankly it all comes down to whether or not they can beat St. Mary’s at home and later on Gonzaga. If they can pick those 2 wins up at home and have 2 Q1 wins they could find themselves in position to nab an at-large. It’s still not a guarantee but they absolutely have to have those 2 games, and it starts this week. Of course, they will need to stay focused and win @ Loyola after so they don’t ruin the good they do. It’s a must-win week, which for a program that has been in the dance just once in the last 25 years and hasn’t won a tourney game since the 70’s it’s an incredible opportunity to start what could be a historic run.
Oregon St: 15-7 (6-4) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (11-0) SOS: 95 (215) Q1(A): (1-1) NET (62)
The Beavers have as slim a path as you could carve out, but similar to San Francisco it hinges on this week. We’re just going to skirt by the fact they lost @ Gonzaga this week by 38, they already beat them at home so no big deal. It’s all about the home game vs St. Mary’s on Saturday night, as that would give them their 2nd Q1 win and open up the path for them to at least be in the conversation. They are going to need to essentially win out, so it’s not just that game, but they need every win they can get the rest of the season. I would say only the game @ St. Mary’s they can lose the rest of the way, so this will be fun to track as we keep going forward. First it’s Wazzu at home, and then the big one with the Gaels, so we’ll say it’s a must-win week for Oregon St, although they have 3 straight must-win weeks upcoming so it’s nut up or shut up time for the Beavers.
–Others–
Locks: N/A
On the Right Track:
Memphis: 18-4 (8-1) — Q1: (5-1) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS: 55 (5) Q1(A): (2-1) NET (42)
Memphis gave themselves a ton of wiggle room thanks to playing the 5th strongest non-con schedule and taking full advantage of their opportunities. They continued to roll and avoid falling victim to a sense of complacency that would be easy to succomb to, picking up road wins over bad teams. They are not really going to be challenged the rest of the way, as there isn’t a top-100 team on the schedule until a potential conference tourney rematch with North Texas. The fall off of the American is wild, and you would think after this season Memphis would be desperate to get into a better conference. Either way, they can essentially coast to the conference tourney at this point, as I don’t even think they have to play their best ball to win games right now, and that could be a problem Penny Hardaway has to navigate in order to keep them focused and getting better along the way.
Teetering:
Drake: 18-2 (8-2) — Q1: (1-0) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (9-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: 245 (255) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (59)
Drake fans have to be massive Vandy fans right now, as they’re the only win they have that looks good and if they fall outside the top-50 in NET the Bulldogs would lose their lone Q1 win. They need the Commodores to continue to pick up wins in the SEC to keep that win there, and they need to just keep on winning games in the MVC. I continue to be amazed at what HC Ben McCollum has done here, and if I was a major conference team looking to go in a new direction (shoutout IU), I would be going after McCollum as the dude can clearly coach. If they win out it’ll be very interesting where they sit, but after last year’s debacle with Indiana St it’s hard to imagine they could get in without the Arch Madness title, but they have done so well they deserve to at least be on the watch for the stretch run.
Outside Looking In:
UC Irvine: 19-3 (10-1) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (8-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: 208 (216) Q1(A): (0-0) NET (56)
The Anteaters are continuing their run, going 2-0 this past week and as one of the top defensive teams in the country they certainly have earned there way to this spot. They are 3-1 in Q1/2, and while the SOS numbers are very bad, having that kind of record in those games at least puts them legitimately in the conversation. Do they have an elite win? No. And frankly that is probably what will limit them if they do lose in the conference tourney, as they likely would face a similar fate as Indiana St did a year ago. They have the win @ UC San Diego, the other top contender in this conference, and will get them at home later with a chance to add a 4th Q2 win. They get their last chance to improve the Q1/2 record when they host UC San Diego this Saturday in their lone game of the week, one they have to win if they want to remain a part of the bubble conversation.
5-STAR Bracketology 