Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, and exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in that first article.

For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally, the Flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. The beauty of this series is it is completely reactionary week to week, and now that we’re 6 weeks into this experiment we have storylines that continue to play out. The fun is just beginning as we hit the home stretch, with roughly 5 weeks left in the regular season. Let’s dive in.

1. Houston: (19-2) Off (15) Def (1) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Houston is an absolute machine right now, as they beat up on bubble team K-State and then went to Austin to grind out a win vs Texas. They are a relentless force, regardless of where they play and who they play. Despite being down 6 late in the 2^nd half, they battled back to force OT and beat a desperate Texas team in a rowdy environment. They outrebounded the Longhorns by 11 and their trio of guards, led by Jamal Shead, combined for 52 points. Shead is the straw that stirs the drink for these Cougars and has continued his run scoring 17 and 25 this past week. It’s beginning to feel as if I’m copy and pasting week to week with this group, as we know exactly who they are and how they win. It’s all about defense and rebounding, and despite not playing a guy over 6’8” they are able to dominate in both areas. Their next game is the biggest challenge of the season though, as they get their first taste of Allen Fieldhouse as members of the Big 12. Massive game for the Big 12 race and it will be must-watch television.
2. Purdue: (20-2) Off (1) Def (17) – FLYER
   • It was another 2-0 week for Purdue, winning at Rutgers and then coming home to beat Northwestern in OT. The latter became an expose on exactly the weaknesses that this Purdue team has. Northwestern’s trio of guards was able to get whatever looks they wanted offensively as they broke Purdue down defensively attacking Edey in ball screen actions. Those 3 shot 23/42 from the field, most of which were jump shots, which is a very difficult thing to do consistently over the long haul. So while they did expose some things defensively for Purdue, causing them to fall into the Flyer territory, they still lost in the end and did so playing as well as you could imagine offensively. Edey is definitely a weakness for Purdue on defense, but his ability to absolutely dominate on the other end is why he’s the NPOY. Despite missing 9 FT’s he still had 30 and 13 and with the surrounding cast shooting 10/21 from 3 we saw exactly how and why this year’s Purdue team is a step above last year’s iteration. This week they head to Wisconsin in what is a massive game for the Big Ten regular season race.
3. UConn: (19-2) Off (3) Def (24) – FLYER
   • I’m feeling more and more confident in this UConn team, shocker they’ve won 9 in a row, but it’s more about how they’re winning. Since the return of Clingan they’ve improved from 42^nd to 24^th defensively, which we spoke about at the time being the likely result. His presence is huge, as we’ve discussed, but now there’s a 2^nd force rising and that’s 5-star FR Stephon Castle. In their 2^nd win of the week over Providence, Castle had a career high 20 points and looked as comfortable as he has all season. He’s missed games to injury, but has been back at full strength for this run and seems to be getting better and better. He has shot 7/20 from 3 over this run, which isn’t amazing but 35% is much better than his season avg 27%. He’s getting better, and that only makes a team that’s the 3^rd best offense in the Country that much better. Next, they head to what will be a desperate St. John’s team and then host bubble team Butler. A 2-0 week would be ridiculously impressive, but even a tough road loss with a bounce back win should keep them right on pace.
4. Arizona: (16-5) Off (6) Def (10) – IMPENETRABLE
   • Arizona bounced back after that disgusting loss last week to Oregon St by going to Eugene and knocking off Oregon and then dismantling Cal at home. They still look like the most well rounded team analytically, being top-10 in both efficiency metrics. Teams who accomplish that feat are ridiculously successful in March, with 70% of those teams since ’05 getting to the Elite 8. You cannot find another category of team analytically with even close to that high of a chance at getting that far. Even 1 seeds in general get there only 62% of the time, and right now Zona is on track for a 2 seed, which average Elite 8 trips just 43% of the time. The data is telling us what the data is telling us, and as hard as it is to overlook those horrific losses, you’d have to at this point. That win @ Oregon was very impressive, and they’ll have another chance to impress as they head to Utah later this week. First, it’s a home game vs a Stanford in a chance to avenge one of their poor road losses. Go 2-0 and I’ll feel much less uneasy about this team.
5. Auburn: (17-4) (17) (3) – FLYER
   • Well well well, that weakness in the backcourt that we spoke about last week shined bright for Auburn in their loss to Mississippi St, as they mustered just 58 points, going 6-24 from 3. That’s their issue, and it’s about time we see the data start to reflect that weakness as they have dropped into flyer territory. Now, where they excel is on the interior, as we’ve discussed, and against bad teams Broome and Williams can really dominate, just as they did in their bounce back win over Vandy. They defend at an elite level, and if you don’t take care of the ball they will run you out of the gym. That’s their formula, speed up the game, get out and run to get easy buckets and when it slows down feed it inside to Broome. It can work, but we’ve yet to see it work in a Q1 game as they’re now 0-4. They need a big win, and this next week is going to present them with 2 opportunities to do so. They go to Ole Miss and then host Bama. Both of those teams love to run and score at a high clip, so their defense is going to be a huge factor in trying to win both of those games. It’ll strength on strength, which will be both fun to watch and very telling in the mystery of Auburn being a top-5 analytical team with 0 big time wins.
6. Tennessee: (15-5) Off (31) Def (2) – FLYER
   • Well, right when I start to believe Tennessee is turning the corner offensively, they lay an absolute egg at home vs South Carolina. They scored just 59 points on 65 possessions, 31 of which were by Dalton Knecht. Was this a one-off or just a reality that they can’t score outside of Knecht? Only time will tell, but that bad of an effort at home is not something I’m going to just overlook. I had written in the past that the emergence of Zakai Ziegler was exactly what they needed, and he had just 2 points and 3 assists in 33 minutes. He’s the x-factor, as they really need him to be a playmaker from the point to get guys like Vescovi and Jordan-James open shots. There’s a ton of pressure and him and Knecht, and while Knecht can seemingly deliver night after night, they can’t afford Ziegler to be inconsistent. They have a massive game up next as they head to Rupp Arena to face Kentucky. A loss to that young team that can’t play defense and the alarms will start to go off. LSU at home after should be an easy win, but 1-1 next week is going to be concerning.
7. UNC: (17-4) (19) (4) – FLYER
   • Just as I was beginning to think UNC was the best team in the Country they lose an awful one @ Georgia Tech. It was a nice reminder that this team does have holes, especially on the offensive end. Nobody would think that’s where this team struggles, as they have massive names in RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, who should be 2 guys that could carry a team offensively. What I’m watching is the slump of Bacot, who has now scored just 19 points over the previous 3 games. His usage numbers are at an all-time low for his career, which for a team that can go through scoring droughts is a bit mystifying. This is a guy that’s shooting an ungodly 79% from 2 right now…get him the ball. I get RJ Davis is your guy but Cormac Ryan does not need to be going 3/14 from the field while Bacot is a non-factor. This has to be an adjustment made by Hubert Davis, as this is an all-conference center that needs to be fed the ball more. Anyway, that’s an easy adjustment, and what makes me confident is they are still playing very well defensively and have a massive bounce back chance with Duke coming to Chapel Hill on Saturday. After that they get Clemson at home as well, so that could be 2 huge wins at home for a team that was as hot as anyone entering last week. I expect a bounce back, and I think that starts with getting your All-Conference 5 man more involved in the offense. We’ll see.
8. Alabama: (15-6) Off (2) Def (66) – VULNERABLE
   • I have harped on Bama and their lack of defensive ability for weeks now, but they continue to win games by outscoring teams. They were down by as many as 16 to Georgia but came back to win by 9. They gave up 76 points, but the most alarming issue is the rebounding, as they gave up 17 offensive rebounds. That’s their huge issue defensively, as they pressure and force turnovers, they just can’t finish possessions with a rebound often enough. I’ve said it before, but that will be a debilitating problem for them in March. They have a very difficult matchup for them up next in Mississipi St this week. While it’s at home, they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the Country, so if they show up defensively they could give Bama everything they want and more. After that is the rematch @ Auburn, so it’s going to be an illuminating week for a team that I still have 0 confidence in when the tournament rolls around.
9. BYU: (15-5) (8) (24) – FLYER
   • It was kind of a quiet week for BYU as they beat Texas at home, as they should have, and then had the rest of the week off. Their rotation has been a bit of a mystery to me and seems to be something that Pope has been trying to figure out himself. 9 different guys have started and as many as 10 have had a meaningful role. The rotation vs Texas was down to 8, and maybe that’s where it’ll settle out. Mainstays Traore and Knell are back from injury but coming off the bench, maybe that’ll remain the case but if they can get back in rhythm I think BYU could start to get on a roll. They go to WVU in the ultimate land mine game in the Big 12, as the Mountaineers are not good but have upset Kansas and Texas already at home. Have to grind out a W there if you’re legitimately a top-10 team. After that is Oklahoma on the road, who has been as up and down as you can get in the Conference. Must-win followed by a huge opportunity. Smells like an upset brewing in that trap game, but after this week we’ll have much more to say on this Cougars team, if they stay in the top-10 of course.
10. Illinois: (16-5) (5) (31) – FLYER
    • Illinois did have a nice week after losing to Northwestern, beating IU at home and then going on the road to beat Ohio St. The latter was very impressive, knowing how badly the Buckeyes needed a win to go into Columbus and win by 12 was good to see. The duo of Terrance Shannon and Marcus Domask is as difficult an offensive combo to stop as there is in the Country. What I love about this Illinois team is their flexibility, having 8 solid contributors but the ability to play small as they most often do but also with Dainja coming off the bench as a post presence. They can score in so many ways, as they often post Domask as well and have shooters all around. Their issue is defensively, as they are one of the worst teams in the Country at forcing TO’s. They have good paint presence with Hawkins and they rebound well, they just allow teams to move freely and get good looks due to the lack of pressure they put on. It’s not a major knock, but as we saw in the Northwestern game when they gave up 96, you can’t just allow good shooting teams to get open looks over and over. They only have 1 game until we meet again, at home vs Nebraska, who is horrible on the road so I imagine the train will keep on rolling for this group.
11. Wisconsin: (16-5) (7) (39) – FLYER
12. Duke: (16-4) Off (9) Def (30) – FLYER
13. Iowa St: (16-4) (49) (5) – VULNERABLE
14. Marquette: (16-5) (28) (13) – FLYER
15. Kansas: (17-4) (24) (22) – FLYER
16. Baylor: (15-4) (4) (77) – VULNERABLE
17. Michigan St: (13-8) (29) (20) – FLYER
18. Creighton: (16-5) (39) (12) – FLYER
19. Gonzaga: (16-5) Off (27) Def (32) – VULNERABLE
20. New Mexico: (18-4) (38) (26) – VULNERABLE