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The final week of February is upon us, as the bubble continues to shrink little by little. The one distinction this year seems to be that bubble teams are just not converting on opportunities like they have in the past, with teams like Ole Miss, Virginia, Texas A&M, Utah, Cincy and so-on all dropping games at home that would have been huge wins for their bubble hopes. Teams are running out of opportunities quickly, as we’re just 2 weeks away from the end of the regular season, with 3 or 4 games remaining depending on the team. What it also has created is a situation where anyone doing a bracket projection is struggling to find worthy teams for those last 4 spots. Even teams like Michigan St and Texas A&M who are dropping games left and right still have a chance to get in because nobody else is winning behind them. On the plus side, that means a big win from a team on the fringe could catapult them onto the right side of the bubble. Also, for those keeping track I did in fact breathe quite the sigh of relief when South Carolina win @ Ole Miss, collapse avoided. Looking ahead though every game on the bubble has tremendous weight this time of year, so let’s just get into it and play it all out there as we charge towards March. 

I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. To avoid any confusion, let’s quickly define what I’m looking at for each.

“Locks” – Basically, these are teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler, so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in.

“On the Right Track” – This group will range from teams who are on the precipice of getting locked down to teams who lie in the 7-8 seed range, as they’re comfortably in the field but a string of losses could send them spiraling toward the true bubble danger zone.

“Teetering” – This is the group of teams that are truly on the bubble, where every win and loss can shift where they stand and how comfortable they feel. They could range from the 8-9 seeds who look solid but are by no means safe, all the way to the bottom feeders who are holding on to a glimmer of at-large hope with much to do. Keep in mind, one team that’s teetering may need to go on a huge run to even have a shot while another is just trying to avoid losing a couple games to stay on the right side of the bubble. Positioning can be quite different in this category, but I hope to explain each team’s path week to week. 

For every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), NET SOS and a final category being the Q1(A) record. The Q1(A) games are the elite games that can define a resumé, and the committee has leaned on these in the past as a way to split hairs when the more simplistic Q1/2 categories are too close to separate. They are technically games vs the top-15 @ home, top-25 neutral and top-40 on the road. Also worth mentioning, any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. For a breakdown of the available bubble spots see below, as we have 68 teams on the first watch, but many of those will be missing out. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/26. Check out my current bracket projection here. 

Bubble Breakdown:

Total Bids: 68

1-bid conferences: 19

Locks: 22

Bids Left: 27

Bubble: 38

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–ACC–

Locks: 

   

On the Right Track:

Clemson: 19-8 (9-7) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (40) Q1(A): (2-2) 

Clemson was able to handle business this past week, beating GA Tech on the road handily and then coming home to beat Florida St. That got them very close to lock territory, and while I probably could go ahead and lock them, the fact they have 4 tough games remaining gives me pause. This is a team that is building momentum as they’re 5-1 in their last 6, but their last 2 losses overall were to Virginia and NC State at home. They have a similar type of game vs a desperate Pitt team coming up this week, so if they fall asleep a little they could lose another Q2 game and then have to travel to ND. That of course is not a game they should lose but the Irish are well coached and play hard, so in spite of their lack of talent they can surprise you, just ask Virginia and VA Tech. All of that being said Clemson is sitting in a good spot right now, with an 8-6 Q1/2 record and with some big time road wins over UNC/Alabama on the resumé, they should feel pretty confident. Just can’t lose 4 straight to end the season, which should be pretty easy if you can just take care of Pitt at home. Then we can lock them up and just worry about seeding come Selection Sunday. 

Teetering:

Virginia: 20-8 (11-6) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (81) Q1(A): (1-3) 

After going 9-1 over a ten game stretch Virginia has now lost back-to-back games since we last met, and have fallen below .500 in Q1/2 games. They are really struggling offensively, averaging a pathetic 44 points over their previous 3 games, a number no team can succeed with regardless of how good they are defensively. The problem for Virginia is things are not going to get any easier with just 3 to play, as they go on the road twice this week, to BC and Duke. If they can’t find a way to win one of those they would drop 4 straight and fall to just 6-9 in Q1/2 games. That would put them in serious jeopardy with just 1 game remaining at home vs GA Tech, which would be can’t lose as it adds nothing to the resumé. Wednesday night is a pivotal night for Virginia’s at-large hopes, as a loss @ BC with a trip to Duke around the corner would be a devastating blow. If they can just find a way to grind out a win then we can probably breathe a sigh of relief so long as they don’t lose to GA Tech to end the year. 

Wake Forest: 18-9 (10-6) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (5-5) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (70) Q1(A): (1-2)

The Demon Deacons had a gigantic week, picking up a Q2 win over Pitt first and then getting their biggest win of the season by beating Duke. That finally gave them a high quality win, and they now jump to 6-9 in Q1/2, pulling them closer to a team like Virginia. Some may have them in the tourney, and I could see why with a top-25 rank in the NET, but in my opinion Wake still has some work to do in order to get in. With that being said they have catapulted into being right square in the conversation of the last 4 in/first 4 out group. They have a very scary one up next with a trip to ND, a feisty team that isn’t very talented but if you don’t show up can pull off an upset. That’s a scary one after they had such a great win over Duke, can they stay focused and go get a tough road win? If not, they have a trip to Blacksburg right after that, so while this week was huge for them it could all be undone if they can’t get it done on the road. While I don’t think they absolutely have to go 2-0 this week, that would certainly make things a little easier as they could pick up another Q1 win and start to really have a better case to make with that win @ VA Tech. All eyes on Tuesday though, as that game at ND might not feel as important as the Duke game but it may in fact be as consequential. 

Pitt: 18-9 (9-7) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (84) Q1(A): (1-3)

Pitt was able to hold serve this week, losing in blowout fashion @ Pitt but coming back home to handle VA Tech with ease. While Pitt is playing really well right now, at 8-2 over their previous 10, they still are a decent ways out of the field with just a 5-7 record in Q1/2. Now, they were able to improve that this week from 4-6, so that’s a step in the right direction, but with just 4 games to play in the regular season they are starting to run out of time. This week they travel to Clemson which is a giant opportunity, but a difficult one to say the least. That is their final Q1 game to finish the season, but they do have a Q2 opportunity to follow with BC on the road. If they can push it to 6-8 in Q1/2 then they’re much closer with more chances coming in the ACC tourney. Obviously, a 4-0 finish would put them in a great spot, but that is asking a lot, so we’ll look for a 3-1 finish to keep them alive entering the ACC tourney, especially with how poorly the rest of the bubble teams have been playing. 

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–Big Ten–

Locks:

       

On the Right Track:

Northwestern: 19-8 (10-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (33) Q1(A): (2-3)

I was very close to locking up Northwestern, but I had to pause as I looked at the Wildcats’ schedule to end the season. While avoiding a disaster this week vs Michigan was huge, they do still have 4 Q1/2 games to close out the season, and while 9-7 in Q1/2 is very solid a 9-11 record and losing 4 straight would certainly put them in the crosshairs as the Big Ten tourney got underway. A quick exit there and we could have a world where they enter Selection Sunday on a 5 game losing streak and just 9-12 in Q1/2. I think that might be enough still, but I would like to ensure that’s not the scenario we’re looking at come Selection Sunday, so we’re going to give Northwestern 1 more week to really solidify this thing. They first have to go to Maryland who has knocked teams off at home this year and is a Q1 game, and then they host Iowa who has been on a tear lately. If they even just split the week we’ll 100% lock them up with 10 Q1/2 wins, but if they go 0-2 we’ll get very nervous as the last week of the season they have two more Q1/2 games so there’s nothing easy the rest of the way.  

Nebraska: 20-8 (10-7) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (64) Q1(A): (1-3)

The Huskers had a massive week, finally getting the road monkey off their backs by winning @ IU and then returned home to handle Minnesota with ease. They are sitting in a good position still thanks to this past week, but overall are still just 7-9 in Q1/2 so they can’t just sit back and feel like they’re a sure thing just yet. They’ll take their now 4 game winning streak into Columbus this week to take on a hot Ohio St team who has beaten both Purdue and Michigan St since making the change at HC. If they’re able to pick up another road win we’ll be able to lock this one up as that would give them 4 Q1 wins. A loss there though and we’ll be watching closely as they host Michigan later in the week, a can’t-lose game for a team trying to avoid any question marks come Selection Sunday. Based on how this season is going I almost expect them to lose @ Ohio St, but if they can prove me wrong that will be more than enough to lock them up. We’ll see if they can get it done on the road. 

Teetering: 

Michigan St:  17-11 (9-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (21) Q1(A): (1-4) 

Well, last week I said it looked like Izzo had gotten the Spartans rolling at the right time, and boy was I off the mark. Michigan St inexplicably lost 2 home games this week to teams not projected to be in the tournament in Ohio St and Iowa. It was a shocking turn after Sparty won 3 straight games, and they are now squarely on the bubble again as they’re just 9-11 in Q1/2 games. They don’t have any “bad” losses (Q3/4), but being below .500 in Q1/2 almost by definition means you are on the bubble. Given the volume of wins and SOS, when compared to the rest of the bubble, I still think Michigan St is in a safe position as it stands, but if you’re a Sparty fan you have to be getting worried about this team. The news keeps getting worse, as they have just one game this week and it’s @ Purdue…maybe the rest will do them some good, but no team has won in Mackey Arena this year so it’s asking quite a bit if you’re looking for a Michigan St W on Saturday. A loss there would drop them to just 3-9 in Q1 and overall 9-12 in Q1/2 with 2 to play. It’s getting awfully dicey as we approach March, a month Izzo traditionally has this Michigan St team clicking on all cylinders. 

Iowa: 16-12 (6-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (12) Q1(A): (1-6)

The Iowa Hawkeyes have entered the chat, as they went on the road this week and took down Michigan St to pick up a 3rd Q1 win and their first Q1(A) win in 7 tries. They now have an 8-11 record in Q1/2 after losing this weekend @ Illinois, but that certainly qualifies them for the bubble this year, as seemingly nobody can claim a firm hold on the final few spots. That win @ Sparty followed a home win over Wisconsin, so they’ve picked up 2 Q1 wins in the last 2 weeks, coming from the cellar to actually give themselves a glimmer of hope. They are still a horrible team defensively, but they have really gotten it rolling on offense, pushing towards the top-10 on that end as they’ve picked up these big time wins. They also have the 12th ranked SOS which bodes well for them, so the stretch run here could see Iowa come from out of nowhere to maybe get to Dayton. They’ll look to stay alive with a must-win game vs Penn St this week and then they’ll head to Northwestern with a chance to pick up a 4th Q1 win and really put themselves right in contention for one of those last few spots. If they don’t beat Northwestern, they’ll have one remaining opportunity in the last game of the season with a home tilt vs Illinois that will be pivotal. 

Minnesota: 17-10 (8-8) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (89) Q1(A): (0-2)

I said last week that Minnesota needed at least a 4-2 finish down the stretch to stay in the hunt and they split this week, putting more pressure on them in the final 4 games. They were able to beat Ohio St at home, but couldn’t hang with Nebraska at their place and dropped yet another Q1 game. The reality is they are still pretty far out of it with only 1 Q1 win, but the path is still there, however difficult. They have to travel to Illinois in their next one and then return home to play Penn St. The latter is not going to help much, but it will add a Q3 win to help offset that bad Q3 loss that is hanging out there. They then finish with IU at home and head to Northwestern to finish the season, one that is looking like an almost must-win if they lose again @ Illinois this week. 3-1 to finish is what it’s going to take barring a major run in the Big 10 tourney. It’s an uphill battle for the Gophers, but with opportunity comes hope, and that’s what you have to cling to at this point. 

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–Big 12–

Locks: 

     

On the Right Track: 

BYU: 19-8 (7-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (57) Q1(A): (1-4)

BYU was able to defend their home court this week and pick up a big time Q1 win over Baylor to help bolster this resumé. I was worried about their defense against Baylor, and while they didn’t hold them down completely they still held them to 71 points which was enough. The defensive issues did pop up though as they followed up the big home win with a loss on the road to K-State, a game in which they allowed a pathetically bad offensive team to put up 84 points. It’s kind of stunning how bad they’ve gotten defensively after being top-10 most of the non-conference season, but it seems to just be the reality now. They will get tested big time on that end this week as they head to Allen Fieldhouse for the first time as a member of the Big 12 and then host TCU who loves to get up and down. The Cougars sit in a good spot, but this 2 game slate is one they could easily go 0-2 in, and that would put them at 8-10 in Q1/2 with a trip to Iowa St kicking off their final week of Big 12 play. That game at home vs TCU is going to be critical for them to feel comfy come Selection Sunday, so that’s why we’re holding off on the lock. Losing @ Kansas is fine, just have to hold serve at home and we can lock it up.  

Texas Tech: 19-8 (8-6) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (37) Q1(A): (3-4)

Texas Tech also defended home court by beating TCU but followed it up by losing to UCF on the road. The TCU game was dangerously close to being a loss as well, as they were down 10 with 6 minutes to go but were able to mount a comeback and pull out a win to stay in good shape for an at-large. They welcomed Warren Washington back from injury in the UCF loss, and hopefully as he gets healthy he can help them on the glass as they gave up an absurd 21 offensive rebounds to TCU, amazing they could win in spite of that. This week looks like a massive one in terms of giving us confidence to just go ahead and lock up this group, as they host Texas and then get WVU on the road. That should be a 2-0 week for a team that’s locked into the NCAA tourney, as you have to be able to defend home court and then you can’t be dropping Q3 games this time of year. With Washington back and Isaacs and Toussaint playing so well in the backcourt I have confidence in the Red Raiders to take care of business this week and move on to worrying about where they’ll end up seed wise come Selection Sunday. 

Teetering:

Oklahoma: 19-8 (7-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (51) Q1(A): (2-5)

We’ve been tracking this final push for Oklahoma as it was an absolute gauntlet that we feared could send the Sooners into a spiral straight to the NIT. They took one step toward quelling those fears by going to Oklahoma St and squeaking out a win in OT thanks to a ridiculous game-winning 3 by Javion McCollum. It was a bit of a miracle but you can’t apologize for a W on the road in the Big 12, and it helps them stay on track. The scary stretch of the final 7 is about to get under way though as their final 4 games are all Q1/2 with 3 of them being Q1, and they’re off to just a 1-2 start to that final 7. This week they head to Iowa St, basically an L already as nobody has won in Ames this year, then they host Houston, the #1 team in the Country per every analytical system on the internet. I would almost bet on them going 0-2 in those games at this point, and while you could argue they should be able to put up a fight vs Houston I am not sure a team who is this bad offensively really has much of a chance against that vaunted defense. I would predict we are looking at an Oklahoma team that is 19-10 this time next week and just 7-10 in Q1/2, which would put them squarely in the bubble conversations with 2 more difficult games on tap. They can surprise me and beat Houston to prevent the collapse, but I’m thinking a collapse is more likely at this point than not. 

TCU: 19-8 (8-6) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (41) Q1(A): (2-5)

The Horned Frogs were oh so close to knocking off Texas Tech on the road but were able to bounce back and get an easy home win over Cincy to finish a strong week. They are now 3-1 in their last 4 and, unlike Oklahoma, have a ton of momentum as we enter the stretch run of the season. They also has some legitimate opportunities to continue to add to this resumé with Baylor coming to Fort Worth next and then heading to BYU who has proven to be very beatable lately. I wouldn’t expect TCU to sweep these 2 by any means, but if they can add yet another Q1 win by beating Baylor at home that will go a long way. It will be tough as Baylor comes in looking for revenge, but it’s a huge opportunity nonetheless. On the flip side there’s a decent chance they drop both this week, which would see them fall to just 7-10 in Q1/2 and all of a sudden we would have to be worrying about TCU as we enter the final week of the season. It’s a 2 game stretch that could see them in vastly different positions depending on how they perform, so to say it’s an important week is a bit of an understatement. 

Texas: 17-10 (6-8) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (15) Q1(A): (2-7)

Texas did exactly what we expected this past week, beating K-State at home and then losing on the road to Kansas. That keeps them on the right side of the bubble, but just barely as I have them in the last 4 byes as it stands. They were hurt this past week by the fall of Cincy and Baylor as those wins have dropped out of the Q1(A) category and dropped them to just 2-7 in those games. Obviously, they’re still Q1 wins but when you just look at the resumé as a snapshot this week vs last it got a bit worse in that regard. They’re now just 6-9 in Q1/2 games, and while they are universally in the field as of today, they certainly shouldn’t feel confident. Matters are only made worse when you look at the 4 games remaining, as they head to Texas Tech/Baylor and then host Oklahoma St/Oklahoma. If they can’t win on the road then that 2-2 split would make them just 7-11 in Q1/2 games entering the Big 12 tourney. A first round exit and you’re sitting at 19-13 and just 7-12 in Q1/2. That’s going to make for a very uncomfortable Selection Sunday for the Longhorns. Obviously a road win @ Texas Tech this week would be huge, so all eyes on Lubbock Tuesday night as that one means a lot to both teams. 

Kansas St: 16-11 (6-8) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (61) Q1(A): (2-4)

Last week we laid out exactly how K-State needed to finish in order to have a shot at this thing and they followed that script to start thing off. They lost @ Texas, we factored that in, but the win vs BYU was the big one they needed as they picked up a 3rd Q1 win and 2nd Q1(A) as they continue to fight to climb back up the bubble list and enter the true conversations. Arthur Kaluma had his best game of the season at the perfect time, putting up 28 and 10 as he fights to get back to the NCAA tourney after transferring from Creighton who is in a much better position than his new team. Overall, they’re still just 2-7 over their last 9 so my confidence remains low, but they took their 1st step toward pulling this off by beating BYU. The next one will be after they beat WVU at home on Monday, as they travel to fellow bubble team Cincinnati. If they’re able to go 2-0 this week and pick up a road Q1 win they would move to 8-10 in Q1/2 and have big time life as they enter the final week of the regular season. 

Cincinnati: 16-11 (5-9) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (42) Q1(A): (2-6)

Cincy suffered a crushing blow to their at-large hopes this week as they dropped one at home to Oklahoma St. That amounts to a Q3 loss, and they followed that up with a road loss to TCU as they fall to just 5-9 in Q1/2 with 2 Q3 losses hanging out there. It’s very bleak for the Bearcats now, as they are going to need to go on quite a run to salvage this thing. What makes it even worse is they next head to Houston, basically can chalk that one up as a loss, so they’ll head into their final 3 games needing to win all 3. That means this week beating K-State at home, which would pull them to 6-10 in Q1/2 if K-State can stay in the top-75. That would give them a tiny glimmer of hope that would rest on beating Oklahoma on the road, so still not very likely but it’s possible. Not much left to say for a team that is near the bottom of the bubble at this stage, just have to find a way to finish 3-1.

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–Big East–

Locks:

      

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Providence: 18-9 (9-7) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (50) Q1(A): (2-4)

Providence had just one game since we last met and it was a great success as they went on the road and beat Xavier to grab their 5th Q1 win. That win moves them to 8-9 in Q1/2 and frankly I can’t imagine how anyone would have them out of the field at this point, just look at the records yourself. Not only do they hold 5 Q1 wins but 3 of those happen to be teams I have in the lock category (Marquette/Creighton/Wisconsin). If you see a bracket page without the Friars in I would go ahead and disregard them for the remainder of forever. All of that being said the season isn’t over, so the Friars will need to continue to win the games they’re supposed to, starting this week with a home game vs Villanova that is big for both teams. That game follows a trip to Marquette (assuming a loss there), so splitting the week and moving to 9-10 in Q1/2 should keep them on the right side of the bubble as we move into March. 

Seton Hall: 18-9 (11-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (52) Q1(A): (2-4)

Seton Hall continues to roll as they picked up their 5th win in 6 games in their lone matchup since last edition, beating Butler at home to add another Q2 win. They hit a skid at the end of January when Kadary Richmond went down for a couple games, but with him back in the lineup and leading the charge offensively they have played their way into the field for me at 8-7 in Q1/2 games. I know they have those 2 Q3 losses out there but they were quite a while ago and I think it’s obvious to anyone who understands basketball they have developed into a tournament worthy team. Going 11-5 in 16 games in this year’s Big East is not something you can ignore and for me that is able to make up for those early season slip ups. With all of that said they have as tough a week as you could imagine in this Conference as they head to Creighton and then to UConn. Let’s just keep it real, they’re probably going to go 0-2 this week. That will drop them to 8-9 in Q1/2 and probably have them back on the fringes, but nobody panic. They finish the season with Nova at home and then DePaul so they’d have a chance to bounce back and pull even at 9-9 in Q1/2. I think the 2-2 finish would be enough to keep them in as we enter the Big East tournament for sure, but with how Nova is playing that win is not a guarantee. We will see what it looks like this time next week, as they could surprise with a road win, but I’d expect to be looking at that matchup with Nova as a must-win. 

Butler: 15-12 (7-10) — Q1: (3-11) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (1) Q1(A): (2-6)

I said last week I wouldn’t hit the panic button even if they lost to both Seton Hall and Villanova on the road, and I’m sticking to that. While most prognosticators have already clamored on about how much of a shame it is to see Butler squander this away, I’m still feeling like they have a shot. I know they have lost 4 straight games, but the final 3 are all very winnable, as I said last week, and would push them to 9-12 in Q1/2 games. They also hold the nation’s toughest SOS, so are we going to actually reward teams who play difficult schedules or not? Because if we are then Butler deserves a bump for playing all but 8 of their games in Q1/2. I’m going to refrain from going on too much of a tangent just yet as the Bulldogs still have to win these final 3 games. It starts this week with St. John’s who is coming off of a massive win over Creighton. That would add to their Q2 win total and sets them up for an easy win @ DePaul, one they can’t afford to lose under any circumstance. Go 2-0 this week and Butler is still right there in the thick of things, and in my opinion should still be in over these other bubble teams who have played far weaker schedules and don’t have near the wins Butler does (@ Creighton, @ Marquette, vs Tx Tech/Nova). 

St. John’s: 16-12 (8-9) — Q1: (2-9) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (20) Q1(A): (2-6)

It appears Rick Pitino may have finally gotten the attention of his guys as they enter the final stretch of the season in dire straits. They responded by going 2-0 this week and in the process picking up their best win of the season over Creighton. That gave them their 2nd Q1(A) win and with Utah sliding in the NET it keeps them at 2 Q1 wins overall. They do move to 8-11 in Q1/2 games overall and have a legitimate chance thanks to that win on Sunday. The improved play defensively has been huge and also Jordan Dingle has gotten more aggressive, putting up 18 and 22 in the 2 wins in 2 of his best performances of the season. They’ll see if the positive changes can hold as they head to Butler in a pivotal bubble matchup this Wednesday in their lone game of the week. That is one of the biggest bubble matchups of the week, as both teams need the W, and both would be in a critical position with a loss. The Johnnies finish with Georgetown and DePaul, so this is their last shot to add to that quality win total, and if they can’t capitalize will be looking toward the Big East tourney where they’ll want at least 1 more win to try and position themselves for Selection Sunday. 

Villanova: 15-12 (8-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (17) Q1(A): (2-4)

Villanova did in fact not shock the world @ UConn, but were able to beat Butler at home earlier in the week to split the week and stay alive as they chase that 4-2 finish we mapped out last week. If you look at their resumé you might think they’re in a great position until you see that 2-3 record in Q3 and that’s where things get complicated. The SOS is strong, the quality wins are very strong (UNC/Tx Tech neutral and @ Creighton) but those losses are so ugly. You could argue, well those were earlier in the season maybe we overlook them now, but then do we overlook the high quality wins over UNC/Tx Tech as well? There’s the conundrum, if the non-conference wins matter then so do the losses, and that is hurting Nova a ton right now. They have a cupcake game with Georgetown up next and then they enter a final 3 games that are ultra important. They have to find a way to go 2-1 in the final 3, which requires a win @ Providence/Seton Hall and a home win over Creighton to round things out. Anything short of that and all the pressure will be on the Big East tournament as I don’t see 17-14 being good enough entering the BET. It’s go time for Nova. 

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–Pac-12–

Locks: 

   

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Utah: 16-11 (7-9) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (18) Q1(A): (3-5)

Utah dropped another one in ugly fashion as they got blown out @ Colorado and fall to just 2-6 in their last 8 games. They have gone from a potential 6-7 seed to now in my Last 4 In, and if you ask others they could be out of the field entirely. It’s razor thin, but the strong trio of non-conference wins over BYU/St. Mary’s/Wake Forest still matter in my opinion and that top-20 SOS boosts them as well. They’re overall 8-10 in Q1/2, which if you’ve read all the way through this thing you know puts them right on par with many of the teams battling it out on the fringes right now. The downside for the Utes is they’re almost out of chances, as their next 3 games are all can’t-lose Q3/4 games that won’t help the resumé. It will help make the record look a little prettier and could boost the metrics if they can win big in a couple of those, but the real chance is in the final game of the season when they head to Oregon. Until then they just need to hold serve and hopefully build back some momentum at home vs some lesser competition. 

Colorado: 18-9 (9-7) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (7-4) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (75) Q1(A): (0-4)

Colorado did what they had to do, whooping Utah at home to add their 7th Q2 win and move themselves to 8-9 in Q1/2 overall. That puts them right in the mix, as I now have them playing in Dayton if the season were to end today, but don’t get it twisted, they’re one big win from another bubble team from being back on the wrong side of the bubble. Their best wins right now are over Utah and Wazzu at home outside of the road win @ Washington that is counting as their 1 Q1 victory. What we’ve seen from the committee though is a value put on Q2 wins as well, as teams like Auburn and Alabama were given higher seeds than I expected on the committee reveal last week with fewer Q1 wins than others below them. It’s an interesting thing to watch, as both of those teams have at least one elite Q1(A) win and Colorado doesn’t, plus the 4 Q2 losses is an ugly number. Either way, with 4 to play Colorado clearly can’t afford any bad losses, and they’ll have 2 chances to avoid that this week with home games vs Stanford and Cal that have to be wins for them to stay alive. 

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–SEC–

Locks: 

        

On the Right Track:

Kentucky: 19-8 (9-5) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (53) Q1(A): (4-2)

This Kentucky team is as up and down as they come, which isn’t surprising given the amount of FR they are relying on. After picking up a massive win over Auburn last week they couldn’t avoid the let down and lost @ LSU on a last second shot. They of course followed that up with another huge win at home vs Bama, a game in which they scored a ridiculous 117 points. There is no doubt that when these FR are locked in and playing hard they are as dynamic a group as you can find in the Country. The problem continues to be defense though, and while they are an electric factory offensively, that lack of defense is keeping them on the watch for one more week as you just never know who they’re going to lose to. What also hurts them is that 1-2 Q2 record which is pretty ugly, and frankly they’re just 6-7 overall in Q1/2 so it’s not that pretty of a resumé outside of that shining 4-2 record in Q1(A) games. This week they head to a tough and scrappy Mississippi St team who is full of grown ass men that are going to do their best to lock down this young Kentucky team. A win there would be ultra-impressive, but if they fall to 6-8 in Q1/2 and then for some reason stub their toe again at home vs Arkansas this thing could get dicey. So, we’re going to let this young team play things out a bit more down the stretch before we lock em up. 

Mississippi St: 19-8 (8-6) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (48) Q1(A): (2-4)

Mississippi St is rolling right now, winners of 5 straight games they have set themselves up nicely with just 4 games remaining. They were able to handle business this last week by beating in-state rival Ole Miss and then went on the road and didn’t miss a beat as they beat LSU by 20 just a few days after the Tigers knocked off Kentucky. It’s been an impressive run, but we’re going to find out over the next 2 weeks if it can hold up against tougher competition, as they now get 4 straight Q1/2 games to finish up the season. They first host Kentucky in a big time chance at home to pick up a Q1 win, and then go to Auburn, which makes the Kentucky game all the more important as dropping both would slide them to 3-7 in Q1, which wouldn’t be horrible but we can’t forget those 2 Q3/4 losses that weigh this resumé down a bit. They would all but guarantee their bid if they can handle Kentucky at home on Tuesday as a 4th Q1 win would be tough to imagine not being enough at this stage and with this bubble. 

Florida: 19-8 (9-5) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS (33) Q1(A): (2-4)

The Gators almost pulled off an incredible win this week as they went to Bama and took the Tide to OT and fell just short. They played as well as you could play but didn’t quite pull it off, but still were able to bounce back and handle Vandy with ease, leading wire-to-wire. They join many other SEC teams as offensive juggernauts but the lack of defense is something I see coming back to haunt them eventually, but until then their resumé has them in good position. They’re now 8-2 in their last 10 games, putting themselves in great position to handle their business and reach Selection Sunday with little to fear. It continues this week as they host a bad Missouri team in a can’t-lose game and then head to South Carolina. The Gamecocks are a good team but certainly beatable, so a 2-0 week would make the Gators a lock no doubt, but even a 1-1 split would bring them 1 step closer as avoiding a bad loss to Mizzou is important. 

Teetering:

Texas A&M: 15-12 (6-8) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-5) Q4: (5-0) SOS (11) Q1(A): (3-4)

Since the Aggies beat Tennessee they have lost 4 straight games, including 2 Q3 games, just horrific. The loss this week at home to Arkansas was the straw that broke the camel’s back as I can no longer justify A&M being in the field with that disgusting 2-5 Q3 record sitting there staring us in the face. Yes, they’re still over .500 in Q1/2 games, which should normally be plenty to get a team in the field, but you just can’t lose 5 games in Q3 and expect to get in. At this point, with 4 games to play, I’m thinking they’ll need to go 4-0 to have a chance, as that would push them to 12-7, which would be a pretty strong argument against those 5 Q3 losses. I’m not sure if that would be enough, as frankly I don’t think I’ve ever seen a resumé like this to know what the committee would do with it. I mean how often does a team go 2-5 in Q3 but 3-4 in Q1(A)? I’m laughing at the absurdity as I type this. I’m kind of rooting for them to finish 4-0 at this point just to see what would happen. It starts with a home game vs South Carolina and then they head to Georgia. Those on paper are very winnable, but with A&M up is down and down is up, so maybe they go 0-2 this week and shut the door on this thing entirely who knows. 

Ole Miss: 19-8 (6-8) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS (67) Q1(A): (0-5)

Ole Miss remains on the outside looking in as they dropped both games this past week @ Miss St and then at home to S. Carolina. They’re now just 4-8 in Q1/2 games, simply not good enough. It’s quite a fall as they started the 18-3 and are now just 1-5 in their previous 6 games as they’ve really struggled with the stiffer competition in the SEC. Their season is all but on the line this week as they host Alabama in their final Q1 game, one that if they can win would give them their first Q1(A) victory and give them a chance to go on a real run here down the stretch. They follow it up with a can’t lose road game vs Mizzou and are left with 2 Q2 chances the final week of the season. Ultimately it looks like the weak non-con schedule is going to haunt the Rebels if they can’t close the season out damn near perfect. It’s nut up or shut up time for Ole Miss on Wednesday night. 

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–Mountain West–

Locks:

   

On the Right Track:

Colorado St: 18-8 (8-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (31) Q1(A): (1-5)

The Rams went on the road twice this week and fell both times, losing to New Mexico and UNLV to keep things interesting. They really struggled to score the basketball, putting up less than 1 point per possession in both losses, shooting just 12-44 from 3 combined. Isaiah Stevens was good in both games, but watch the ancillary guys going forward as he’s going to have to get more help if they have any shot at making noise in March. While I don’t foresee Colorado St missing the dance, if they lose their last 3 that would make it a 5-game losing streak and add several more bad losses. I don’t think it’s going to happen but they can give me all the confidence I need by beating Nevada at home this week. Do that and I can go ahead and lock them up and worry about them when I’m filling out my bracket. 

Teetering:

Boise St: 17-8 (10-4) — Q1: (5-5) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (47) Q1(A): (2-3)

The Broncos have been enjoying a reprieve on the schedule as they’ve been able to beat up on the bottom feeders in the Mountain West over the past few games. They’ve now won 3 straight games by 20+ points, which has allowed them to make the record look much nicer and improve their metrics a bit. However, it hasn’t done anything for the resumé aside from avoiding bad losses. They have one more cupcake with Air Force coming up this week before they finish the season with 3 straight Q1/2 games. That stretch starts with a home game vs New Mexico on Saturday as they look to add another Q1 win, if the Lobos hold on in the top-30. They should go 2-0 and if they do they’ll be on the brink of locking as they enter the final week of the regular season. 

Nevada: 21-6 (9-5) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (10-0) SOS (90) Q1(A): (1-2)

Similar to Boise St, the Wolfpack have been holding serve as they were able to beat Wyoming and San Jose St this past week to stay on track. They remain 6-5 in Q1/2 games, so above .500 continues to be enough to have them in the field as it stands today. Overall they are on quite a run right now, winning 6 of their last 7 games behind the strong play of their big 3 Blackshear, Lucas and Davidson. They have another big time opportunity this week as they head to Colorado St, albeit a tough one to convert as the Rams have been great at home. They host Fresno St in a cupcake after, so they should probably split the week and that will keep them on track. If they do somehow find a way to upset Colorado St on the road then we could push them all the way to lock territory, especially if they take care of Fresno for a 2-0 week.

New Mexico: 20-7 (9-6) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (9-1) SOS (89) Q1(A): (0-3)

The Lobos continue to defy the computers, as they continue to hover around the top-25 despite dropping another bad one, this time at home vs Air Force for a Q4 loss. Really bad timing for a loss like that, especially right after they knocked off Colorado St to pick up their 4th Q1 win. It’s mystifying how they continue to be so up and down, win a game on the road vs Nevada and then lose to Air Force? I’m not sure what to make of them, but I couldn’t call them a top-25 team by any stretch. Regardless of your overall view of them, the resume is just not great, sitting at just 5-5 in Q1/2 with 2 losses in Q3/4 now. That puts them right square in the bubble conversations with just 3 to play, 2 of which are on the road vs top competition in Conference. They have just one game this week, @ Boise St, and while that’s a tough one you really can’t predict what is going to happen with this group, so who know. Win and it’s a huge move, but a loss drops them to just 5-6 in Q1/2 with those 2 bad losses so they’d be in danger of being on the outside looking in. Massive matchup for the Lobos.

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–American–

Locks: N/A

Teetering:

Florida Atlantic: 21-7 (11-4) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (6-4) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (7-2) SOS (95) Q1(A): (1-1)

The Owls are truly dropping down the seed list now as we approach March, and at some point we have to start asking just how long they can hold on to that win over Arizona. They lost yet another game in the American and are now 3 games back of USF, something nobody would have predicted before the season. The loss to Memphis becomes their 6th loss outside of Q1, which is a ton especially compared to most of these bubble teams. It highlights their inability to defend, a problem they didn’t have last year as they’ve dropped from 34th to 101st this season, with almost entirely the same roster. It’s hard to explain, but regardless it has caused them to be in a vulnerable bubble position with just 3 games remaining. Overall they’re still 7-5 in Q1/2, but those 2 Q4 losses are hanging out there and cast some doubt on how they’ll be viewed by the committee, with only that 1 Q1 win over Arizona to offset. This week they’ll try to bounce back with just 1 home game vs Tulane, one they really can’t afford to lose at this point.

South Florida: 21-5 (14-1) — Q1: (0-0) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (10-2) SOS (205) Q1(A): (0-0)

USF is going to be one of the toughest resume’s to place, as they started the season rough and racked up 2 Q4 losses, but have bounced back to go 19-1 over their last 20 games. They have 0 Q1 wins to try and offset the bad losses, but they are 5-3 now in Q2 which is starting to push them up the bubble as they’ve now beaten FAU and Memphis in Conference. Ultimately I’m not sure if the schedule is going to be tough enough, but if they win out and are 24-5 I’m not sure how they could be ignored. The first step toward putting that pressure on the committee is this coming weekend, with a road game vs Charlotte that would push them to 6-3 in Q2. It’s going to be very interesting, but only if they can finish the season without another loss. Who would’ve thought a major bubble event would be happening in the Charlotte v S. Florida game to begin March?

Memphis: 20-8 (9-6) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (8-2) Q4: (6-1) SOS (98) Q1(A): (0-0)

Memphis has bounced back and did what they had to do this previous week, beating both Charlotte and FAU at home to keep themselves alive in the at-large fight. They have had quite the up-and-down run in the American Conference, but are sitting on wins vs Clemson and @ Texas A&M in the non-con that are keeping them afloat. They do have 3 losses in Q3/4 which may be too many to make up for with the schedule they have left, but the 6-5 Q1/2 record is strong enough to keep them in the conversation. This week they have 2 can’t-lose games @ ECU and then at home vs UAB. Both of those games just have to be W’s, but they’ve lost games like this previously so we can’t be too sure with this Memphis group. A 2-0 week keeps them alive, anything less and we can forget about Memphis unless they win the AAC tourney.

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–WCC–

Locks:

 

 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Gonzaga: 21-6 (12-2) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (11-0) SOS (105) Q1(A): (1-3)

Listen, Gonzaga won another 2 games in the WCC and I know what the metrics are saying, but I’m not understanding what people are seeing putting the Zags in the field at this stage. They are now just 3-6 in Q1/2 games, with a pretty bad SOS at 105. They have just 1 Q1 win, which granted was @ Kentucky a very impressive win. Regardless, the resume is just not there for me to justify putting them in on the metrics and that Kentucky game alone, they need to do more. The good news for the Zags is they can prove to people like me just how good they are this week, as they get San Fran and Saint Mary’s away from home which amounts to 2 more Q1 opportunities. If they are able to push to 5-6 in Q1 that would absolutely get them in the at-large field. A 1-1 split improves their case but I’m not sure it would be enough at just 4-7. SOS and winning quality games is supposed to matter more than metrics alone, the Zags look like they’re going to push the committee on that principle.

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–Others–

Locks: 

 

 

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

McNeese St: 20-3 (13-1) — Q1: (0-0) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (15-1) SOS (311) Q1(A): (0-0)

McNeese now is likely the top mid-major with a chance to get an at-large after Grand Canyon lost back-to-back Conference games this past week, after Indiana St did the same the week prior. Will Wade has done a tremendous job and if they can continue to finish strong they will have a compelling case to make at 24-3 and 3-2 in Q1/2. They have 2 games left on the road and 2 more at home prior to the Conference tourney, so as long as they keep winning we’ll keep them on the watch as their case would be very interesting if they fall in the championship.

James Madison: 25-3 (13-3) — Q1: (1-1) Q2: (1-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (19-0) SOS (306) Q1(A): (1-0)

JMU continues to handle their business as they’ve now won 8 straight games and are holding onto that win @ Sparty from early in the season. They’re 2-2 in Q1/2 which isn’t super strong but with just 1 loss in Q3/4 they, like McNeese, would have a very interesting case if they can run the table. They have just 2 road games left in the regular season, so with 2 more wins they’d enter the Sun Belt tourney at 27-3 with a Q1(A) win. Who knows what that would look like at say 29-4 with a loss in the Sun Belt ship, but the committee would have a long and difficult discussion about it, that I’m certain of.